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欢迎收听《动物精神》，我是迈克尔，还有本。
Welcome to animal spirits with Michael and Ben.
迈克尔，我之前都不知道国债回购这回事，就像回购股票那样。
Michael, I didn't know that treasury buybacks were a thing, like buying back shares of stock.
我觉得我们以前从来没聊过这个话题。
I don't think this is a conversation we've ever had before.
你听说过量化宽松吗？
Do ever hear quantitative quantitative easing?
但那不一样。
That's different, though.
那是美联储做的。
That's the Fed.
这是财政部做的。
This is the treasury.
我知道它们有点类似。
I know they're kind of all the same.
你对此的第一反应是什么？
What is your what is your initial feeling about this?
所以斯科特·贝森上周说，嘿。
So Scott Besson last week said, hey.
我们不喜欢长期利率的走势。
We don't like the way the direction of long term rates.
大家都担心这个。
Everyone is worried about it.
我们不希望它们更高。
We don't want them to be higher.
我们认为它们应该更低。
We think they should be lower.
所以财政部会尽我们所能来压低它们。
So the Treasury is gonna do what we can to bring them down.
而且他们做的购买，你知道，只是杯水车薪。
And they made they made, you know, a drop in the bucket in terms of a purchase.
利率稍微降了一点，然后第二天媒体又回升了。
Rates fell for a little bit, then the media rose back the next day.
现在他们又说，不行。
And now they're saying, no.
不行。
No.
如果必要的话，我们会拿出大招来对付这个。
We're gonna take the bazooka to this if we have to.
我们要把长期利率压下来。
We're bringing long term rates down.
我的第一反应是，我是自由市场的支持者。
My knee jerk reaction is I am a free markets guy.
我不喜欢这样。
I don't like this.
我觉得政府财政部不应该对债券市场进行政治干预。
I don't think that there should be government Treasury political interference with the bond market.
这是一个由买卖双方组成的市场。
This is a market of buyers and sellers.
利率是由那些远远超出他控制范围的因素决定的。
Interest rates are determined by things that are far outside the control of Mr.
斯科特·贝森特，他看起来像威尔·法瑞尔在《周六夜现场》里演的那个角色，就是那种头发很怪的角色，他是个讨厌的家伙吗？
Scott Bessant, who looks like what's the character that Will Ferro plays in SNL when he's got like the he's like a is he a nasty guy?
他是不是有那种怪异的太空发型？
He's got the funky space hair?
哦，你说得对。
Oh, you're right.
他确实看起来像那样。
He does come up like that.
我能看出来。
I can see that.
我不认为这能行。
I don't I don't think it's I don't think it's gonna work.
我要说
I'll throw
完全就是斯科特·贝森特的样子。
a complete good Scott Besson.
你说得对。
You're right.
但我确实觉得时机可能不错。
But I do feel like the timing might be good.
就是，我不确定这能不能成。
Like, I don't know if it's going to work.
它持续了二十四小时。
It worked for twenty four hours.
利率下降了不少。
Rates came down quite a bit.
第二天，又全都涨回去了。
The next day, niche niche, took it all back.
但他们是在一个自然的位置上做这件事。
But they're doing it at a place, at a natural place.
所以可能会成功。
So it might work.
可能会成功，但我不喜欢这样。
It might work, but I don't like it.
好的。
Okay.
关于自由市场这件事，我佩服你能坚持原则。
The free markets thing, I I I applaud you for taking a stand in principle.
其实根本不存在什么真正的自由市场。
Like, there's no such thing as free markets.
咱们得承认这一点。
Let's be honest about that.
他们一直都在控制这些利率。
There's they've always controlled these rates.
二战时，政府就压住了利率，说为了借钱打仗，要把利率保持在低位。
In World War two, the government put their foot on the rates, they said we're keeping rates low so we can borrow for the war.
对吧？
Okay?
2020年，美联储买债券压低利率，所以从来就没有真正的自由市场。
In 2020, the Fed was buying bonds to bring rates down, so there's never really been free markets.
不完全同意，我完全反对这个说法。
Not well, completely reject that.
从来没有自由市场，是因为另外两次吗？
There's never been free markets because two other times?
我只是说，
Well, I'm just I'm just saying.
政府试图控制利率并不是什么新鲜事。
This isn't like it's not a new thing for the government to try to control rates.
这种事以前就发生过。
This is something that has happened before.
我觉得这其实就是我们社会现状的一部分。
I my thing is I feel like this is just kind of part and parcel of where we are in society.
我们都希望所有事情都能一键搞定。
We just want there to be an easy button for everything.
真正降低利率的办法是停止伊朗战争，取消所有关税。
The way to really bring rates down would be to stop the war in Iran and take away all the tariffs.
这才是降低利率的正确方式。
That's how you bring rates down.
如果他们宣布，嘿。
If they said, hey.
听着。
Listen.
我们对所有关税实施十二个月的暂停。
We're putting a twelve month moratorium on every single tear tariff there is.
我们退出伊朗战争。
We're pulling out of the war in Iran.
利率马上就会降下来。
The rates would drop immediately.
所以他们没有这么做，而是决定，不。
So instead of doing that, we've decided, no.
咱们就直接砸钱进去吧。
Let's just throw a bunch of money at it.
我觉得这大概就是
I think that's just kind
你现在的价值所在。
of what you're worth today.
所以，这是我脑子里冒出来的第一个类比。
So there's this is the first analogy that popped in my head.
我们就像在给病人做手术，却一直用创可贴来止血。
We're doing surgery on a patient, and we keep putting Band Aids on it to stop the bleeding.
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
不。
No.
干脆别做手术了。
Just stop doing the surgery.
那样血就止住了。
That'll stop the bleeding.
对。
Right.
别再动刀了，别再切了。
Quit making quit making incisions.
对。
Right.
我觉得这十年里，两位总统都没有真正说过，我要正面解决通胀问题。
And I I think neither president this decade has has really, like, said, like, I'm going to tackle inflation head on.
其实有很多事情可以做，虽然不能完全解决通胀问题，但肯定有一些办法。
There like, there are things that that and you can't completely fix inflation, but there's certainly things you can do.
我还觉得，大家对长期债券利率的关注有点过头了。
I also think I think that people pay way too much attention to long term bond rates.
比如说，如果我们打个响指，取消二十年和三十年的国债，世界真的会有那么大变化吗？
Like, I if we just decided to snap our fingers and we did away with twenty and thirty year treasuries, would the world really change that much?
如果我们说不再需要三十年国债了，金融市场真的会受影响吗？
Would it would it really change financial markets if we said, we don't need thirty year treasuries anymore?
我们也不需要二十年国债。
We don't need twenty year treasuries.
我觉得
I think
但这是个问题。
that But a thing.
但它们确实存在。
But they exist.
这个论点在这里是必要的。
That argument is sort of needed here.
我不太认同这个观点。
I don't I don't buy that.
它们只占所有借款的10%左右。
They count they count for, like, 10% of all borrowings.
就是很小的比例。
Like, it's a small amount.
但对于信号传递来说，我觉得非常重要。
But for for the signaling, I think it's super important.
对我来说，更大的问题是这个。
Here's to me the bigger the bigger bigger issue.
我觉得这很正常。
I think this is normal.
我不觉得三十年国债收益率在5.2%有什么问题。
I don't think there's anything wrong with a thirty year Treasury to be at 5.2%.
不是。
No.
名义增长和通胀水平，你说得对。
Nominal growth is and where inflation is, this is you're right.
这就是正常水平，利率就应该在这个位置。
This is the normal this is where rates should be.
对。
Yeah.
他们想解决什么问题？
What they trying to fix?
我知道这是2007年以来的最高水平。
Now I understand that it's the highest it's been since 2007.
这个我明白。
I get that.
我理解为什么大家有点焦虑、不安，甚至有点慌，但这是正常的。
I understand why there's a little bit of heartburn and indigestion, upset stomach diarrhea about what's happening, but it's normal.
是的。
Yes.
你说得对。
You're right.
我知道房贷利率让人担心，通胀也是个问题，所以重点是，你说得对。
This I know mortgage rates are are worried, where inflation is so the point is, you're right.
你是在治本，而不是只处理那些奇怪的症状。
You're you're treating the treat the patient, not just these weird symptoms.
所以斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒昨晚在《华尔街日报》写了一篇专栏文章。
So Stanley Druckenmiller wrote an op ed for The Wall Street Journal last night.
他说，让债券市场说话。
He said, let the bond market speak.
他说，哦，
He said Oh,
等等。
wait.
首先，对于那些不了解的人来说，斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒是有史以来最伟大的宏观交易员。
First, for for those who don't know, Stanley Druckenmiller is the greatest macro trader of all time.
他拥有任何投资者中最好的长期业绩记录。
He's got the best long term track record of any investor ever.
他是一位有影响力的思想家、演讲者和投资者。
He's an influential thinker, speaker, investor.
所以当他在《华尔街日报》上写点什么时，人们都会关注。
So when he writes something in The Wall Street Journal, people pay attention.
有趣的是，他可能，你说得对。
The funny thing is he probably you're right.
他可能是有史以来最优秀的宏观交易员，但他过去十五年的宏观预测，简直是一塌糊涂。
He's probably the best macro trader of all time, and his macro calls the last fifteen years have been, like, an abomination.
他什么都预测错了。
He's he's been wrong with everything.
这次，我从中吸取了一些他预测对和预测错的部分。
This one, I I took piece of pieces of this that he's been right on and wrong on.
等等。
Hold on.
这点得给他点赞。
Credit credit to him.
我最近不知怎么的看过他一次演讲，他特别有幽默感。
I I I saw him speak somehow recently, and he's very he's got a great sense of humor.
对。
Yeah.
他对自己很有自知之明。
He's very self aware
关于这一点。
about it.
他确实很有自知之明。
He's very self aware.
有人问他问题，他基本上就说，问我干嘛？
He was asked a question, and he basically said, why ask me?
我很久没做对过什么了，是的。
I haven't gotten anything right in a long Yes.
可能除了他的交易吧。
Except for his trades probably.
他说，我花了五十年时间，基于一个简单的原则做交易。
He said, I spent five decades trading on a simple premise.
市场汇集了任何委员会都无法掌握的信息，而价格就是这些信息传递给决策者的方式。
Markets aggregate information to no or no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers.
没错。
Correct.
我完全同意这个观点。
I wholeheartedly agree with that.
你说得对。
You're right.
因为，我上周想到这个，是在你和Josh跟Michael Santoli聊天的时候，你和Josh基本上是在附和特朗普的说法，就是说，听着。
Because so I thought about this in context with you and Josh talking to Michael Santoli last week, And you and Josh kinda made the case along with what Trump has been saying that, listen.
我们是全球最大的经济体。
We are the biggest economy in the world.
我们应该有最好的市场，而且我们确实有。
We should and we are we have the best markets.
我们有最大、最好的公司。
We have the biggest best companies.
我们的借贷利率应该是最低的。
We should have the lowest borrowing rates of anyone.
你和Josh也是这么跟Santo说的。
And you you and Josh kinda made that case to Santo.
但我觉得他好像有点不同意，说不是这样。
And I felt like he kind of he kinda said, no.
我不这么认为。
I don't think so.
我觉得他之所以这么说，原因如下。
And I think the the reason he said that is because of this.
比如，你可以从债券市场获取信息。
Like, you get information from the bond markets.
对吧？
Right?
对，是的。
Like Yeah.
如果我的观点是长期利率不重要，政府如果想的话，可以说，好的。
If if the my point about long term rates not mattering, the government, if they wanted to, could say, okay.
行。
Fine.
我们会让美联储把利率设定在0.5%，然后我们就用短期票据来借款。
We're gonna have the Fed set rates at point 5%, and we're just going to borrow using short term paper.
这就是全部。所以如果我们想有效降低借款利率，我们可以很容易做到。
That's all we're so if we wanna effectively lower our borrowing rate, we could do it very easily.
我们可以说我们不再利用债券市场了。
We could say we're not gonna tap the bond market anymore.
我们只是打算这么做，但这会带来一些后果。
We're just gonna but that has ramifications to it.
你说得对。
And you're right.
即使你把那些债券都拿走，我们没有了它们，它仍然有意义，因为债券市场会发出关于通胀、利率和经济增长的信号。
Even so even if you took all those bonds away, we don't have those like, it would it would still have a meaning because the bond market sends signals about what inflation is doing and what rates are doing and what growth is doing.
当然，债券市场并不总是正确的。
And the bond market is not always right, of course.
债券市场一直波动不定，但这是事实。
The bond market has been all over the place, but this is a thing.
现在他说长期国债收益率是世界上最重要的价格。
Now he he's saying the long term treasury yield is the most important price in the world.
我不太相信这一点，但他说这也是美国剩下的唯一财政纪律约束者。
I don't really believe that, but he's saying it it is also the only fiscal disciplinarian The US has left.
两党都不会进行福利改革。
Neither party will run an entitlement reform.
他说债券市场在预示着一场风暴即将来临，而这一点我不同意他们的看法。
He's saying the bond market is saying that there is a storm coming, And this is the part where I I diverge from them and I don't agree with them.
但我确实同意，是的，债券市场会给你信号，你需要这些信号，因为它告诉你市场正在发生什么，以及市场对未来有什么预期。
But I do agree that, yes, the bond market gives gives you signals, and you need that because if because that is it's telling you what's going on in the markets and what the market is expecting going forward.
嗯，想想债券市场在三、四月份是如何迫使政府采取行动的。
Well, think about what the bond market did to force the administration's hand in March and April.
对。
Yeah.
关税
The tariffs
或者，或者什么——哦，抱歉。
Or or what's oh, I'm sorry.
抱歉。
I'm sorry.
我的错。
My bad.
我刚才说错了。
I got that wrong.
在关税风波期间。
During the tariff tantrum.
对。
Yeah.
是债券市场吓坏了。
It was the bond market freaked out.
没错。
Right.
是的。
Yes.
所以他们慌了。
So they freaked out.
顺便说一句，你提到德鲁肯米勒写了这个。
By the way, you said Druckenmiller wrote this.
看起来，这是AI写的。
Apparently, AI wrote this.
有很多人对《华尔街日报》允许某人发表这么明显是AI写的文章感到非常不满。
There was a lot of people who were extraordinarily upset that The Wall Street Journal allowed somebody to publish what was so clearly written by AI.
现在我不确定是不是AI写的，或者部分是不是，或者部分不是。
Now I don't know if it was or if it wasn't or if parts of it were, part of it parts of it weren't.
我错过了这个讨论。
I missed this discourse.
我之前没注意到这个。
I did not realize this.
好的。
Okay.
所以Joey Politano转发了并评论，而且不止他一个人。
So Joey Politano quote tweeted, and he was not alone.
我是说，他说，抱歉，但这是有史以来最明显是AI生成的专栏文章。
I mean, this this was he said, sorry, but this is the most obviously AI generated op ed ever.
它用了那种“不是X”的句式。
It has, quote, it's not x.
前两段都是“是Y”的结构。
It's y construction in both the first two paragraphs.
Pangram 判定它是100%的AI写的。
Pangram has it as a 100% AI.
显然，那是个能识别出东西真假的程序。
Apparently, that's a program that identifies as something's really not.
这是最著名的金融亿万富翁之一提交的。
One of the most prominent finance billionaires submitted this.
《华尔街日报》就这么直接发了。
The Wall Street Journal just ran it.
现在难道一点标准都没有了吗？
Are there no standards anymore?
所以德鲁肯米勒写道：本，我做了个表情包。
So Druckenmiller wrote Ben, I made a meme.
看看我做的这个表情包。
Look at this meme I made.
对于正在收听或没有观看的听众来说，这是史蒂夫·布西密的那个“你好，小朋友们”的表情包。
For those of you who are listening or not watching, it's the Steve Buscemi, how do you do fellow kids?
然后德鲁克写道，如果三十年期国债必须交易在5.5%才能出清，那这不是危机。
And Druck wrote, if the thirty year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn't a crisis.
这是一张账单。
It is an invoice.
现在
Now
好的。
Okay.
你说得对。
You're right.
这完全是AI写的。
That is totally AI.
就是
That is
天哪，真的假的。
That oh my gosh.
你说得对。
You're right.
好吧。
Alright.
说实话，我得承认。
So I have to be honest.
等等。
So wait.
他是不是把“以斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的口吻，写一篇关于我对三十年期国债担忧的评论文章”输入到Claude里了？
He he put in he put in to Claude, write me an op ed about me worrying about the in Stanley Druckenmiller's voice essentially?
据说是这样。
Allegedly.
我不在乎。
I don't care.
我理解记者们为什么会对此非常不满。
I understand why journalists might be very upset about this.
这是他们的职业。
This is their profession.
嘿。
Hey.
大忙人。
Busy guy.
他是个大忙人。
He's a busy guy.
我明白。
I get it.
我根本不在乎。
I don't give a shit.
我真的不在乎。
I really don't.
我理解为什么有些人会在乎。
I understand why some people do.
但不是我。
Not me.
我不在乎。
Don't care.
好吧。
Okay.
我……我其实有点在乎。
I I I do kinda care.
而且我后面还会多说一些，关于为什么我觉得写作和阅读的人会在乎，但你说得对。
And I got more on this later about why I think people writing and reading, but you're right.
他可能确实是个大忙人。
He's probably a busy guy.
他可能说了，你知道，他可能写了一些要点，然后说把这个变成一篇专栏文章。
He he probably said, you know, he probably wrote some bullet points and he said turn this into an op ed.
用斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒的语气来写。
Write this in Stanley Druckenmiller's voice.
哦，我的天，好吧。
Oh my okay.
那好吧。
So alright.
这挺搞笑的。
That's pretty funny.
所以你提到，这算是正常情况。
So you mentioned, like, this being normal.
我拿了三十年期国债收益率，然后减去了有效联邦基金利率之间的利差。
I took the thirty year treasury rate and and subtracted the did the spread between the effective Fed funds rate.
对吧？
Right?
短期和长期利率之间的差异是什么。
What the short term and long term, what the difference is.
现在大约是1.7%，而YCharts上的数据可以追溯到上世纪七十年代末。
It's about 1.7% now, and this data in YCharts goes back to the late nineteen seventies.
如果你看这张图表，你不会觉得，天哪，这太疯狂了。
If you looked at this chart, you wouldn't say like, oh my gosh, this is this is going crazy.
它看起来其实挺正常的。
It's it's it's it looks pretty normal.
基本上就是平均水平或者中位数。
It's probably basically average or median.
对。
Mhmm.
目前长期利率和短期利率之间的利差相当正常。
The the spread between long term rates and short term rates are pretty normal right now.
实际上，在二十一世纪二十年代和二十一世纪头十年的大部分时间里，它们是不正常的。
They were actually abnormal through much of the twenty twenties and two thousand tens.
而且我确实认为，大家对当前利率水平感到恐慌的一个主要原因，就是因为我们太久没有经历过正常利率了。
And I do think one of the big reasons we're seeing a freak out over rates where they are is just because it's been so long since we've had normal rates.
自金融危机以来，利率已经不正常了十五年多，所以人们不习惯利率处于历史上大多数时候的水平。
Rates have been abnormal for fifteen plus years since the great financial crisis, so people aren't used to them being where they are where they were for most of history.
不过，我确实认为这是市场的一大热点。
I do think it is a big market story, though.
我不是在贬低这件事。
Like, I'm not poo pooing this.
我不是在
I'm not
贬低。
poo pooing.
我不是在贬低。
I'm not poo pooing.
白宫和财政部都介入了，这当然是个大新闻。
White House and Treasury are getting involved, of course, it's a big story.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得利率的走向，不只是利率水平本身，很重要，这话我说过很多遍了。
I think the direction of rates, not just the level matters, as I've said a million different times.
而且我也觉得政府现在的做法非常值得关注。
And I also think what the administration is doing is super noteworthy.
当然，因为他们显然也很担心。
Of course, because they're obviously worried too.
对。
Yeah.
如果他们不担心，就不会这么做了。
They wouldn't be doing this if they weren't worried.
不过有意思的是，上周你提到过，如果你觉得市场错了，那你可能才是错的。
It it is funny though, last week you talked about the fact that if you think the market is wrong, you're probably wrong.
他们那边却说市场错了。
They're Best in is saying the market is wrong.
这是一个非常大胆的立场，通常你才是错的那个。
It's that that's a that's a very bold stance to take, and usually you're the wrong one.
来看一下本周图表。
Exhibit a chart of the week.
我想谈谈大家都很担心的债务危机，以及为什么我认为这更多是一场政治危机，而不是真正的金融危机。
I I wanna talk about a few things about this the the debt crisis everyone's freaking out about and why I think it is more of a political crisis than an actual financial crisis.
好的。
Alright.
我在听。
I'm listening.
好。
Okay.
所以，Exhibit A 的团队和 Matt 展示了创纪录的美国债务利息成本与历史水平一致。
So ChartKit and Matt at team at exhibit a, they show record US debt interest costs are in line with history.
他们展示了美国联邦利息支付占联邦总支出的百分比。
So they show US federal interest payments as a percent of total federal spending.
这有点出乎意料。
It's kinda surprising.
它正好处于长期平均水平，大约15%。
It's right at the at long term average of about 15%.
我能说一句吗？
Can I just say one thing?
可以。
Yep.
我觉得这不是问题所在。
I think this is not the worry.
问题在于支出。
I think the worry is the spending.
所以你是在把一个大家认为很不正常的数字正常化。
So you're normalizing for what people think is a very abnormal number.
如果你把利息支出和经济规模相比，那就更让人担心了。
If you compare the spending on interest rates, the interest spending compared to the size of the economy, it's much more uh-oh.
所以有很多人对这种事情非常生气。
So there are a lot of people who get really angry about this stuff.
我觉得，不是说人们盼着出危机，而是他们希望自己在这件事上被证明是对的。
I think I think not that people are rooting for there to be a crisis, but they wanna be proven right on this.
所以我把这个发到推特上，我知道会引发一点争议，但我没想到人们会这么生气。
So I put this on Twitter, I knew it was gonna stir up a little bit, but I I couldn't believe how angry people got.
所以，这是我的推文。
So I here's my tweet.
我现在最反直觉的观点是，我担心的是美国，但我并不担心美国政府债务危机。
My most contrarian take right now is I'm worried about a US that I'm not worried about a US government debt crisis.
我们有最大的经济体、全球储备货币、最富有的人，而且没有替代美债的选择。
We have the biggest economy, the global reserve currency, the most rich people, and there's no substitute for treasuries.
我们会继续花钱，人们会抱怨，但不会发生危机。
We'll keep spending and people will complain, but no crisis will occur.
这是我的基本假设。
That's my baseline assumption.
对吧？
Okay?
但这是我的担忧。
But here's my worry.
我担心的是，有足够多的人担心这会变成一场危机，以至于它会成为一个政治问题。
My worry is there are enough people who are worried about this being a coming a crisis that it will be a political thing.
所以政客们会反应过度，他们会削减社会保障或医疗保险，或者他们会做点什么来试图抢先一步。
And so politicians will overreact, and they'll cut Social Security or they'll cut Medicare or they'll they'll do something be to try to get ahead of this.
我认为这才是政治层面的问题，真正的恐慌和危机可能来自这里，而不是像这样演变成金融危机。
And I think that's what the politics of this, that's where the true panic and crisis could come from, not like this turning into a financial crisis.
这样说公平吗？
Is that fair?
我认为这可能是由于人们担心即将到来的危机而导致的政策失误。
I think it could be a policy error as a result of people worrying about a crisis that's coming.
好吧，你知道你这次是捅了马蜂窝了。
Well, know you you were kicking the hornet's nest with this one.
对吧？
Right?
当然。
Of course.
但我真的相信，这是我的基本假设，不会有政府债务危机。
But I truly believe this is my baseline assumption that there's going to be no government debt crisis.
我再给你一些证据。
Let me give you some more evidence.
让我给你
Let me give
一些更多的证据。
some more evidence.
在你给证据之前，先说两件事。
Before you give the evidence, just two things here.
第一，美元作为储备货币是全球运转的基础，也是我们和全世界最珍贵的东西。
Number one, The US reserve currency is what the world runs on, and it is the most sacred thing that we and the globe has.
这非常重要。
It's extremely important.
对。
Yeah.
第二，我觉得即使概率很小，也值得担心。
Second so I think I think it it's worth being concerned even if it's a small chance.
但替代品是什么？
But what's substitute?
好吧，这就是第二点。
There's Okay, that's the second point.
每当人们担心美元走弱、美元贬值时，就必须有一个替代品。
Whenever people get worried about the strength of the dollar and the dollar is weakening, there has to be an alternative.
企业、联邦政府和个人资产负债表上的资金总得有个去处。
The money on corporate, federal, individual balance sheets has to go somewhere.
如果因为担心我们的财政不负责任而不买美国国债，那这些钱会流向哪里呢？
And if it's not going into US government bonds because people are concerned about our fiscal irresponsibility, where is it going?
这个我们稍后在节目里再聊。
Now we'll talk about this later in the show.
比特币、黄金、白银，上周资金确实流向了这些地方，但它总得有个次要的去处。
Bitcoin, gold, silver, it went there last week, but it there has to be a secondary place for it to go.
而且不会流向欧元，显然也不会流向人民币，更不会流向瑞典克朗或其他货币，所以目前我们还没问题。
And it's not going to the euro, and, obviously, it's not going to the yuan, and, obviously, it's not going to the krona or any of these other currencies, we're fine for now.
但人们最初开始玩加密货币，是因为他们觉得美元要崩盘，想跟体制对着干。
But the the reason people started crypto in the first place is they wanted to be they thought the dollar was going to crash, and they wanted to be antisystem.
加密货币技术最大的进步是稳定币。
The biggest leap forward in in crypto technology is stablecoins.
稳定币能让你做什么？
What do stablecoins allow you to do?
让你能接触到美元。
Access to the US dollar.
那些想跟体制对着干的人，最终还是离不开美元。
The people who tried to buck the system couldn't get away from the dollar.
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对吧？
Okay?
所以摩根家庭给我发了一条很棒的推文作为回应。
So Morgan household had a great tweet for me, in response.
他说，消费者去杠杆化非常强劲，以至于政府加私人总债务占GDP的比例在过去二十年里保持平稳。
He said there's been such a strong consumer deleveraging that total debt, government plus private, as a share of GDP is flat over the last twenty years.
所以这就是我们做出的权衡。
So here's the trade off here's the trade off we made.
在金融危机和新冠疫情之后，政府承担了大量债务。
The government took on a massive amount of debt following the great financial crisis and the COVID pandemic.
这使家庭能够修复他们的资产负债表。
That allowed households to repair their balance sheets.
说得好。
Great handle.
在我看来，这是一个很好的权衡。
As far as far as I'm concerned, that's a great trade off.
你宁愿家庭资产负债表一团糟，但政府很干净，还保持盈余吗？
I would would you rather have household balance sheets, like, as a mess, but the government is pristine and they're running a surplus?
不。
No.
不。
No.
当然不。
Of course not.
对。
Right.
很好。这对我们当时的情况来说是有利的，大金融危机，自大萧条以来最严重的金融危机，然后还有疫情，我们让经济停摆了。
Great This has been a good for the situation we were in, the great financial crisis, the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression, and then the pandemic, which we turned the economy off.
是的。
Yes.
我们不得不承担大量债务，这些债务都有用吗？
We had to take on a bunch of debt, was it all useful?
当然不是。
Of course not.
但它让家庭得以修复资产负债表，考虑到当时发生的情况，这可能是人们之前根本不会相信的。
But it allowed households to repair their balance sheet in a way that probably would have been people would have never believed you considering what happened.
对吧？
Okay?
所以我觉得这是个公平的权衡。
So I think that's a fair trade off.
科林·罗什写过这个。
Colin Roche wrote about this.
他也是我团队里的，这让我感觉好一点。
He's also on my team, makes me feel a little better.
我觉得在宏观方面，我从科林那里学到的最多，他解释的方式特别清楚。
I feel like I've learned more from Colin than anyone as far as macro goes, the way that he explains it.
他问过，现在是该对政府债券感到恐慌的时候了吗？
He asked is it time to panic about government bonds?
他的观点是，他在这里放了一张图表，显示美国政府公共债务，也就是政府债务，占总金融资产的比例，这很有意思。
And his point, he he put this chart in here that shows US government public debt, that's government debt, as a percentage of total financial assets, which is interesting.
因为再说一次，国债对某些人来说是一种资产。
Because again, a treasury is an asset for someone.
对。
Mhmm.
对吧？
Right?
它不仅仅是债务。
It's not just debt.
一个人的债务是另一个人的资产。
Someone's debt is another person's asset.
他说他们处于区间的上端，仍然只有9%，而2005年是5.5%。
He said they were at the upper end of the range, still at just 9%, it was 5.5% in 2005.
他基本上是在说，在过去十五年里，它基本上在这个区间内。
He's basically saying in the last fifteen years, it's pretty much in the range.
所以他说，如果你在2010年担心债务危机，现在还在担心，那你可能得继续等下去了。这一点我同意。
So like, he said if you're worried about a debt crisis in 2010 and you're still worried about that debt crisis today, then you'll probably have to keep waiting for that And I I am in agreement here.
其实，危机更多是在政治层面，而不是说我们现在需要担心什么金融上的问题。
Like, the crisis is is more in political sphere than it is in, like, this is, a thing we have to worry about now because it's financial.
不过有个小例外。
One minor asterisk.
我同意科林的观点，也同意你的看法。
And I agree with Colin and I agree with you.
查理·芒格说过，负债总是好的。
Charlie Munger said, the liabilities are always good.
你真正需要担心的是资产。
It's the assets you have to worry about.
有道理。
Fair.
现在资产水平确实很高。
The the asset levels are very high right now.
所以，这当然。
So this of course.
是的。
Yes.
那确实有帮助。
That that helps.
房价涨了很多。
Housing prices have gone up a lot.
股价也涨了很多。
Stock prices have gone up a lot.
你说得对。
You're right.
所以……
The So
所以如果出现熊市，资产价格下跌40%，这个图表很快就会变得非常不同。
so if there's if there's a bear market and assets prices come in 40%, this chart is gonna look very different very fast.
有道理。
That's fair.
这确实有道理。
That that's fair.
但每次都是这样。
But that happens every time.
说到长期利率没那么重要，我觉得这倒是个挺有意思的思考角度。
This speaking of, like, long term rates not mattering so much, I thought I just think this is an interesting way to think about it.
杰西·利弗莫尔说，按市值算，目前美国国债中期限在十年或以上的未偿供应量。
Jesse Livermore says that take the current outstanding supply at market value of US Treasuries with maturity of ten years or more.
嗯。
Mhmm.
那是四万三千亿美元。
It's $4,300,000,000,000.
他说苹果市值是四万六千亿美元。
He says Apple is worth $4,600,000,000,000.
换句话说，美国股市里的一只股票，在全球投资组合中的分量和权重，比整个长期国债市场还要大、还要重。
In other words, just one single stock in The US equity market is bigger and heavier in weight in the global portfolio than the entire long term treasury market.
所以，再说，这个
So, again, the
国债市场，但问题不在于国债的规模。
treasury market But it's not the size of the treasury more.
不在于
It's not the
国债的规模。
size of the treasury.
你说得对。
You're right.
这是一个信号。
It's the it's a signal.
但我觉得这样放在一起看，正好说明你是对的。
But it I'm I think putting it in context like this goes to show you how you're right.
资产，是的，它们会下跌30%或40%。
The assets, yeah, they come down 30 or 40%.
这是个大事，但从来没人考虑过等式中的资产端。
That's a big like, no one ever thinks about the asset side of the equation.
每个人都只盯着负债。
Everyone only looks at liabilities.
没错。
True.
这就是重点。
That's the point.
资产远超负债，而且差距不是一点半点。
The assets dwarf the liabilities and it's not even close.
嗯。
Mhmm.
所以，这让我们又回到了原点。
So bringing us all full circle.
你现在随便找个对冲基金经理聊聊，他们上CNBC，或者推特上那些宏观分析师，他们会怎么说？
If you talk to any hedge fund manager right now, they go on CNBC, any macro tourist on Twitter, what are they going to say?
你应该持有黄金，做空债券。
You should own gold and short bonds.
现在全球所有宏观分析师都说他们讨厌债券。
Every every macro tourist in the planet is saying they hate bonds right now.
达利欧是不是刚说过这话？
Did think Dalio just said that.
是的。
Yes.
当然。
Of course.
每个对冲基金经理都这么说。
Every hedge fund manager is saying this.
我相信德鲁肯米勒也会说同样的话。
I'm sure Druckenmiller would say the same thing.
他们给出的理由确实有道理。
And they the reasons they give are valid.
政府支出这列火车，我们根本停不下来。
Spending we're no nothing stopping this train with government spending.
我们找了可能是地球上最聪明的人，埃隆·马斯克，跟他说，嘿。
I we took the smartest man on the planet potentially, Elon Musk, and said, hey.
想办法削减开支吧。
Try to fix spending.
他做了什么？
What did he do?
基本上什么都没做。
Literally nothing.
哦，对。
Oh, yes.
他就坚持了三周。
He gave it three weeks.
他说，算了。
He said, never mind.
真的没什么能阻止这趟列车。
Literally nothing is stopping this train.
所以支出已经失控了。
So spending is out of control.
永远也控制不住了。
It's never going to be reined in.
说实话吧。
Let's be honest.
通货膨胀很顽固，比我们很长时间以来经历的都要高。
Inflation is sticky and higher than we than we've had in a long time.
利率在上升。
Interest rates are rising.
所以每个人都在说，我讨厌债券。
So everyone is saying, I hate bonds.
我们来做空它们吧。
Let's short them.
我在2024年12月就说过这话。
I I said this in December 2024.
我不是想自夸。
I'm not trying to pat myself on the back.
我当时说，国际股票是目前全球最不受待见的资产类别。
I said international stocks are the most hated asset class in the world right now.
我觉得现在对债券也可以这么说。
I think you could make the same case about bonds right now.
对于评论员和对冲基金投资者来说，债券是目前全球最不受欢迎的资产。
The bonds for the pundit and hedge fund investor class are the most hated asset in the world right now.
这么说公平吗？
Is that fair to say?
不知道。
Don't know.
那倒是可以这么说。
Suppose you can make the case.
好的。
Okay.
我从我们的朋友FM投资公司那里拿来了这张图表，恭喜他们。
I pulled this chart from our friends at FM Investments, which congratulations to them.
太棒了。
Hell, yeah.
他们刚被T.
Just got taken over by T.
Rowe Price收购了。
Rowe Price.
真厉害。
Amazing.
是的。
Yes.
亚历克斯·莫里森已经多次提到过你的观点。
We've had Alex Morrison talk your book a number of times.
为他们感到高兴。
Very happy for them.
他们有一个很酷的工具，你可以输入数据，因为他们做国债ETF，涵盖了从两年期到三十年期所有国债。
So they have this really cool tool where you can put in because they they do treasury ETFs, and they take every treasury from the two year to the thirty year.
然后他们会告诉你，如果利率上升100个基点或下降100个基点，这些债券预计十二个月的总回报会怎样。
And they say, what would happen over a estimated twelve month total return on these bonds if rates rose a 100 basis points, fell a 100 basis points.
上升200个基点或下降200个基点。
Rose 200 basis points, fell 200 basis points.
明白吗？
Okay?
现在你就是一个对冲基金经理了。
So now you're a hedge fund manager.
你想要什么？
What do you want?
你最想要的是什么，听起来在书里或CNBC上特别酷？
What is the one thing you want that sounds really cool in a book or on CNBC?
我想要一个不对称的风险收益结构。
I want an asymmetric risk profile.
对吧？
Right?
如果收益上涨，涨幅会远大于下跌时的损失。
If the gain is if the gain goes up, it's gonna be way bigger than the loss is gonna be on the way down.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Mhmm.
我的下行风险是有限的。
I have a I have a capped downside.
但上行空间要大得多。
I have a much bigger upside.
这些数字对我来说有点疯狂。
This is these numbers are kind of crazy to me.
所以就拿十年期国债来说。
So it took the ten year treasury.
如果从现在起未来十二个月利率下降1%，你会得到12%的回报。
If rates were to fall 1% from now over the next twelve months, you'd get a 12% return.
如果利率从现在起上升1%，未来十二个月你会损失2%。
If rates were to rise 1% from here, you'd have a 2% loss over the next twelve months.
太棒了。
Love it.
算我一个。
Sign me up.
我还是觉得，我不知道时间线是什么，因为没人能预测利率的幅度或方向。
I just I can I still think that I don't know what the timeline is because no one can predict the magnitude or the direction of interest rates?
总有一天，人们会后悔没有在这些收益率水平上持有债券或部分债券。
At some point, people are gonna go are gonna be kicking themselves for not owning bonds or some bonds at these yield levels.
我觉得债券现在不会再让你亏钱了。
I feel like bonds can't hurt you anymore.
当然，这话有点夸张，我不是字面意思。
Now that's a that's a bit of a you know, I don't literally mean that.
但如果利率再涨1%，那现在可是个大变动，非常大的变动。
But if interest rates go up another 1%, which would be a big move at this point, it'll be a big, big move.
你的总回报是负2%。
Your total return is negative 2%.
谁在乎呢？
Who cares?
股票一天就能跌2%。
Stocks fall 2% in a day.
对。
Right.
即使是波动最大的三十年国债也一样。
Even the thirty year Treasury, which is the most volatile.
如果利率从现在再涨1%，那就会超过6%，你会损失8%。
If rates rose 1% from here, which would be that'd put them at over 6%, you'd lose 8%.
如果三十年期国债利率下降1%，你能赚超过21%。
If rates were to fall 1% for thirty year treasuries, you're making over 21%.
现在债券的风险回报比，上涨空间远大于下跌风险。
Like, the risk reward trade off in bonds right now is way skewed to the upside than the downside.
好的。
Alright.
那我问你一个思维实验。
So let me ask you this thought exercise.
在什么情况下，利率会在经济衰退之外下降？
Under what scenario do rates fall outside of a recession?
我们必须控制住通胀。
We have to get inflation reined in.
我觉得利率在结构上会更高。
Guess I what think rates are structurally higher.
这正好引出了康纳·孙的那条推文。
Which Which is a great segue to this tweet from Connor Sun.
康纳·孙发推说，想想人们花了十五年时间说老龄化社会意味着低通胀和低利率。
Connor Sun tweeted just thinking about how people spent fifteen years saying aging societies would mean low inflation and interest rates.
我有罪。
Guilty.
确实。
Pretty.
是的。
Yes.
肯定有我们在2020年、2021年的片段，说我觉得十年内利率不会超过3%。
There's definite there's definitely clips of us in 2020, 2021 saying, I don't think in ten years ever gone above 3%.
我们当时坚持了多久，本？
How long we were, Ben?
我当时提出过，现在政府债务太多了。
I made the case that we have too much government debt now.
他们不可能让利率保持在现在这么高的水平。
There's no way they can allow rates to get as high as they are.
但没关系。
Didn't matter.
你说得对。
You're right.
债券市场就是那个信号。
The bond market was the the signal.
你说得对。
You're you're right.
有意思的是，科技本该是通缩的。
And it is funny because technology is supposed to be deflationary.
你可以说，所有这些支出都来自——好吧。
You could argue all the spending from okay.
那这样看呢？
How about this?
你说，利率为什么会下降？
You why will rates fall?
人工智能。
AI.
现在的人工智能投入在很多方面都在推动通胀。
The AI spend right now is powering inflation in a lot of ways.
想想看
Think about
是的，它也在推动大量的债券发行。
Well, it's also it's also powering a lot of bond issuance.
而且在2010年代，债券的供需存在结构性失衡，需求远远大于供给，现在情况正在反转。
And there was a structural imbalance of supply and demand, way more demand than supply of bonds in the two thousand tens, and that is now going the other direction.
所以人工智能发展过头了。
So AI gets ahead of itself.
马克·扎克伯格终于说，好吧。
Mark Zuckerberg finally says, alright.
我不玩了。
I'm tapping out.
我们要削减资本开支了。
We're pulling back CapEx.
谷歌说我们要削减资本开支。
Google says we're pulling back in the CapEx.
通胀就会下降。
Inflation falls.
债券收益率会大幅下跌，
Bond yields drop hard in
在这种情况下。
that scenario.
股市会下跌25%。
Stocks fall 25%.
对。
Yes.
然后债券就是一个很好的对冲工具。
And then bonds are a great hedge.
对吧？
Right?
对。
Yeah.
这就是关键所在。
That that's that's the thing.
好的。
Alright.
关于我上周对年轻人的吐槽，收到了一些反馈。
A little feedback on my young person rant from last week.
大家肯定很喜欢那个。
People must have loved that.
不是吗？
No?
嗯，其实有两拨不同的人。
Well, there was two different two different groups.
有一拨是……
People I'd
年轻人，还有老年人。
Young say people young people and old people.
四十岁的人都在给我鼓掌。
People 40 were applauding me.
我之所以说得那么狠，是有原因的。
Now I I went hard on that for a reason.
然后很多年轻人基本上就说，嘿，本。
And a lot of young people basically said, hey, Ben.
你听起来像个老古董。
You sound like a boomer.
去死吧你。
Eat shit and die.
说得对。
Fair.
说得对。
Fair.
嗯，没有什么比过得好的人告诉过得不好的人要坚强起来更糟糕的了。
Well, there is nothing there's nothing worse than people that are doing well telling people that are not doing well to, toughen up.
这话不太中听。
Doesn't land very well.
我只是想说，如果有些年轻人能明白，你只能打好手里的牌，这就是我的意思。
I just I if if a if a few young people got the message that you play the hand you're dealt, that's my point.
有时候你的牌确实不好，但你不能一辈子都在抱怨，把自己当成受害者。
It your hand sucks sometimes, but you can't just spend your whole life complaining about it being a victim.
这就是我想说的。
That's all I was trying to say.
现在，很多人给我发了这个。
Now how how about a bunch of people sent me this.
这就是我说的，我觉得现在的年轻人比老一辈要软弱。
This is what I'm talking about from the from the and I don't, I think I see young people being softer than older generations.
每一代年轻人都比上一代更软弱。
Every younger generation is softer than the generation that came before them.
当然。
Of course.
对吧？
Right?
我上大学的时候，加入了兄弟会，我们有个成员，好像是学院的教务长之类的。
When I was in college, I was in a fraternity, and we had a guy who was he was, like, the provost of the college or something.
他来给我们兄弟会演讲，说他也加入过这个兄弟会，带他入会的那帮人参加过二战。
He came to give a speech to our fraternity, and he said, I pledged this fraternity, and the guys who who, like, brought me in for initiation went through World War two.
他说，你们知道吗，那些从二战回来的人对我们做了多狠的事？
He goes, do you realize how hard it was, like, what these guys did to us who came back from World War two?
那一代人，他们下面的人肯定要更软弱。
The people of that generation, anyone below them had to be softer.
他们当然得这样。
They had to, of course.
所以我觉得这是进步的标志。
So I think I think it's a sign of progress.
不过，密歇根大学取消了第一学期的成绩，以应对心理健康危机。
Still, University of Michigan drops first semester grades to curb mental health crisis.
他们打算用“通过”或“不通过”来代替字母等级，因为不想让学生在第一学期就崩溃。
So they are going to instead of a letter grade, the first semester transcripts will have a pass or no credit because people they don't wanna have people have a breakdown their first semester in college.
你知道我大学第一学期发生了什么吗？
You know what happened to me in my first semester in college?
我一周狂欢六天。
I partied six days a week.
那是我成绩最差的时候。
It was a worst GPA.
我的GPA只有2.5左右。
I had like a 2.5 GPA.
你知道吗？
You know what?
我有没有因此出现心理健康危机？
Did I have a mental health crisis because of it?
没有。
No.
我对自己说，本，你在干什么？
I said, Ben, what are you doing?
所以第二学期我每周狂欢五个晚上。
So I partied five nights a week in the second semester.
我走了另一个方向。
I went the other way.
我记得我得了1.4，然后第二学期成绩又下降了。
I think I got a 1.4, and then I then I I think I got a I think my grades dropped in the second semester.
我记得我得了1.2。
I think I had a 1.2.
对。
Yeah.
听我说。
Listen.
顺便说一句，我真的记得，我想在节目上，我找到了我的成绩单。
By the way, literally, I I I remember I think on the show, I found my transcript.
有可能。
That's possible.
对。
Yeah.
0.0。
0.0.
总之，我就是觉得这挺有意思的。
Anyway, I just thought that was kinda funny.
好吧。
Alright.
在聊股市之前，先说说《华尔街日报》上的一篇文章。
Before we get to some stock market stuff, there was a article in The Wall Street Journal.
有些人为了办婚礼背上了债务。
Some take on debt for their weddings.
这些新娘却在赚钱。
These brides are making money.
随着婚礼开销上涨，新娘们借鉴明星网红的做法，找赞助商来买单请柬、婚纱和单身派对。
As wedding spending rises, brides are borrowing from their celebrity influencer playbook, finding sponsors to pay for invitations, dresses, and bachelorette parties.
我给你们念两段文章里的内容。
Let me just read you two things from the article.
第一，婚礼很贵。
Number one, weddings are expensive.
去年平均花费是三万四千美元。
The average cost was $34,000 last year.
这里有个引用，价格没比那高多少。
Here's a quote from price is not higher than that.
这里有一段布里安娜·塞弗森的引述，她是婚礼策划平台Zola的首席营销官，该平台最多可以给新娘15万美元的合作费用。
Here's a quote from Brianna Severson, the CMO of a wedding planning platform, Zola, which can pay brides up to a $150,000 for collaborations.
好的。
Okay.
这是最有效的营销方式。
It's the most effective way of marketing.
当一对情侣宣布订婚时，就像竖起了一块巨大的广告牌。
When a couple announces their engagement, it's like they've set up a giant billboard.
新娘的粉丝越多，她们的婚礼就越赚钱。
The bigger a bride's following, the more lucrative their wedding can be.
我明白。
I get it.
我理解。
I understand.
但这恰恰反映了当今世界在社交媒体、资本主义和一切都要加码方面的所有问题。
But this is about everything that's wrong with the world today in terms of social media, capitalism, steroids at all costs.
如果你把婚礼变成广告，我觉得我们已经跑偏了。
If you're turning your wedding into an advertisement, I think we've lost the plot.
好吧。
Okay.
说实话，我不是故意要唱反调。
I honestly am not trying to be contrarian here.
我不介意这个。
I don't mind this.
真的吗？
Really?
有人给你提供婚纱，因为他们想展示品牌，而你……
You get someone to give you a wedding dress because they wanna show off the brand, and you
那如果你的请柬是由某个品牌赞助的，比如某某品牌，你会怎么想？
What if your what if your invitation is sponsored by, I don't know, brand x y z?
如果有人愿意为你的婚礼买单，我完全不反对。
If someone wants to pay for your wedding, I don't hate this at all.
我真的不介意。
I really don't.
婚礼本来就已经商业化了，我们只是在把它变得更商业化而已。
The it's you we're commercializing weddings are already commercialized.
别这样。
Come on.
怎么说？
How?
什么叫怎么说？
What do mean how?
这就像，这真的很疯狂。
It's it's like this it's a crazy thing.
人们花几千美元买一件只穿一次的裙子，就为了人生中的一天。
We people spend thousands of dollars on a dress that they wear once one day of their life.
有意思，真没想到你会这么说。
Interest did not expect that one that one from you.
好的。
Okay.
打住。
Stop.
婚礼真的太贵了。
Weddings are are so expensive.
比如说，如果能有人赞助婚礼，就像如果我老婆说，
Like, if people have can get sponsors for them, like, if my wife said, like,
好吧，那也行。
in a it's gonna Fine.
这个我理解。
I'm sympathetic to that.
我懂。
I get it.
婚礼确实很花钱。
Weddings are expensive.
能不能稍微降低点热度，但我们现在就要这么做吗？
Can lower the burn a little bit, but we're doing this now?
好吧。
Alright.
我我我就是不在乎。
I I just I don't care.
好吧。
Alright.
如果伴郎站起来说，嘿，那会有点好笑。
It would be kinda funny if the best man got up and be like, hey.
今晚我的致辞由Miller Lite赞助。
My speech is brought to you by Miller Lite tonight.
对。
Yeah.
有点好笑。
It's kinda funny.
我不知道。
I don't know.
好的。
Alright.
我想聊聊叙事，Ben。
I wanna talk about narratives, Ben.
好的。
Okay.
很多时候，尤其是那些财经评论员，他们总是在瞎猜。
So very often, especially for talking heads, market commentators are are grasping at straws.
对吧？
Right?
尤其是在每天的市场分析里。
Especially on a day to day basis.
比如，道指涨了30个基点，因为什么什么原因。
Oh, the Dow is up 30 basis points as as x, y, or z.
哈哈。
LOL.
对吧？
Right?
我们都觉得这很可笑。
We laugh at this.
听起来完全荒谬。
It sounds totally ridiculous.
所以我觉得这就像杠铃的两端。
And so I think that there are it's like two sides of the of of the barbell.
一端是那些像电视上的人一样，把每次市场波动都归因于某个原因的人。
On the one end are people that ascribe a move to everything as people on TV have to do.
另一端是像你这样的人，说没人知道市场为什么会有这样的表现。
And on the other end are people like you, who say nobody has any idea why the market did what it did.
任何试图给这赋予意义的人都是在胡说八道。
And anyone who's trying to ascribe meaning to this is full of baloney.
对吧？
Right?
我不会说得那么绝对。
I don't I wouldn't go that far.
好吧。
Okay.
我更多是……但很多时候。
I'm more So but oftentimes.
对。
Yeah.
所以很多时候，叙事是事后才套到价格上的。
So Oftentimes the narrative is is fitted to the price after it happens.
我觉得我处于中间位置。
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
现在我更偏向你这边。
Now I'm more closer to you.
我觉得这里面很多，大概90%都是噪音。
Like, I think a lot of a lot of this is just let's say 90% of it is noise.
但很多时候，事情发生了，原因也很明显。
But oftentimes, things happen, and it's very obvious why it happened.
那我为什么提这个呢？
So why do I bring this up?
比特币上周涨了20%，看起来毫无征兆。
Bitcoin gained 20% last week seemingly out of nowhere.
加密货币简直疯了。
Crypto went nuts.
对。
Yeah.
为什么会这样？
Why did it do that?
很明显是在回应美元赤字和利率那些事。
It is obviously responding to the dollar deficit interest rate stuff.
对。
Yeah.
那是在斯科特·贝森发表那些评论之后。
It was after Scott Besson made all those comments.
当然是这样。
Of course it is.
没错。
Right.
你看到了托德·斯通的那张图表。
You saw you you have this chart from Todd Stone.
你看到现货加密货币ETF的资金流入在沉寂了好几个月之后突然爆发了。
You saw spot crypto ETF flows go wild after having been totally apathetic for for months and months and months.
所以你可能会想，为什么比特币在三十年期国债收益率5%的时候无动于衷，而到了5.2%就反应这么大？
So you might say to yourself, well, how come Bitcoin didn't care about the thirty year at 5%, but at 5.2% it does?
或者为什么政府债务达到39万亿美元时它不在乎，而40万亿美元就成了那个神奇的数字？
Or how come it didn't care about government debt at 39,000,000,000,000, but $40,000,000,000,000 is the magic number?
那为什么上次比特币……其实这都不重要。
And how come the last time Bitcoin it it doesn't matter.
所以有时候，市场相信的故事才是唯一重要的。
So sometimes the stories that the market believes are the only thing that matters.
但这并不是说，因为某类资产今天对某个因素有反应，就意味着以后还会这样。
And it's not to say that just because asset class x is responding to y today, that this means that going forward, it's going to work.
我觉得这就是问题所在，也是人们总是被绊倒的地方——他们看到当前的关系和市场的走势，就推断下次类似情况发生时也会这样。
And I think this is the problem where this is what trips could pull up always is they're looking at current relationships and current market moves and extrapolating this to the next time something like this happens.
但上周黄金涨了5%。
But you had gold up 5% last week.
白银涨了7%。
You had silver up 7%.
很明显，现在反贬值和反债务的交易确实很热门。
Clearly, right now, the antidolor debasement trade is a thing.
而且这也是约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯说的选美比赛。
And it's also this is also the John Maynard Cain's beauty contest.
你不是在投票选你认为最漂亮的人。
You're not voting on who you think the prettiest is.
你是在投票选你认为别人会觉得最漂亮的人。
You're voting on who you think everyone else will think the prettiest is.
所以人们怎么做呢，我敢肯定很多聪明的交易者会说，我不相信这是美元贬值的事。
And so what people did, I'm sure a lot of smart traders go, I don't believe that this is a dollar debasement thing.
我不相信这是债务危机，但我知道很多人会相信。
I don't believe this is a debt crisis, but I know a lot of people will believe it.
所以我也加入这个交易，因为我知道这将成为一种叙事。
So I'm jumping on this trade too because I know people this will be a narrative.
对。
Yes.
所以这种叙事会自我强化。
So the narrative feeds on itself.
对。
Yes.
当然，叙事往往是错误的，或者转瞬即逝，或者走向相反的方向。
And of course narratives are often wrong or ephemeral or go the other direction.
然后像我们这样的人就会说，看吧？
And then people like us say, See?
比如，迈克尔·安东内利发推说，我想让你看看维萨和万事达，记住曾经有人认为加密货币会颠覆它们。
So for example, Michael Antonelli tweeted, I want you to take a look at Visa and Mastercard and remember that at one point, it was thought crypto was going to disrupt them.
后来又有人认为人工智能会颠覆它们。
Then it was thought that AI would disrupt them.
股市中确实有集体智慧完全说不通的时候。
There are absolutely times in the stock market where the collective wisdom makes zero sense.
那当然啦。
Duh.
没错，确实如此。
Of course, yes.
所以我理解为什么人们会嘲笑有效市场理论，说价格总是对的。
So I understand why people laugh at efficient market theory and say that prices are always right.
但就像我们上周说的，重点不是价格永远都是对的。
But as we spoke about last week, the point is not that prices are right at all times always.
只是在实际操作中，要一直说价格是对的还是错的，真的非常难，甚至可以说是不可能的。
It's just that in real time, it is incredibly difficult, dare I say impossible, to consistently say that prices are always right or always wrong.
你根本不知道人们什么时候会反应过度或反应不足。
You don't know when people are going to over or under react.
这就是关键。
That's the thing.
你也不知道投资者什么时候会反应过度。
You don't know when investors are going to overreact.
这就是我们几周前聊到的关于加密货币的问题。
And this is the thing with crypto that we talked a couple weeks ago.
市场情绪已经死了。
The sentiment is dead.
这感觉就像是一个死掉的资产类别。
This feels like a dead asset class.
而且得等到这种时候，你才知道人们什么时候会有那种集体行动，对吧。
And it took this to get it to like, it's you don't know when people are going to have that collective, alright.
那就干吧。
Let's do it.
对。
Right.
现在就是做这件事的时候。
Now is the time to do this.
挺有意思的。
It's funny.
是的。
Yeah.
你说得对。
You're right.
Visa和万事达都创了历史新高，都在突破。
Visa and Mastercard both were so they're both breaking out to all time highs.
创历史新高了。
All time highs.
那Citrini那件事是怎么回事？
So the what was the Citrini piece?
记得吗，它们俩当时都跌了15%。
Remember they both fell 15% on that?
那对信用卡来说可是个绝佳的买入机会。
Like, that was a great buying opportunity for credit cards.
对。
Yeah.
美国运通也遭重创了。
And America Express got clobbered too.
我们担心的是美国白领阶层陷入了非常严重的困境。
Think our concern is that white collar America was in deep, deep trouble.
所以，确实有些时候市场会出现严重的错位，而非常精明的人就能抓住这种机会。
So, there are there are definitely times where there are severe market dislocations and very astute, people can take advantage of that.
我还是不敢相信，你想想看。
I still can't believe that that think about it.
那篇文章让市场乱了一个星期。
That piece caused a big market disruption for like a week.
嗯，其实那也是软件股被重创的尾声。
Well, was also it was also like on the tail end of software getting smoked.
我记得写那篇文章的人上了Odd Lots节目，说他自己都不敢相信这篇文章会火成这样。
I remember the person who wrote it went on Odd Vots and said like, I can't believe that this has out, I can't believe that this has gotten as big as it has.
就是说，关于AI的文章已经写了无数篇了。
That that, like, there's been a million thought pieces written on AI.
为什么市场偏偏集体盯上这一篇，还让它对某些股票和板块产生了影响？
Why did the market decide collectively, we're gonna zero in on this one, and this is gonna have ramifications for certain stocks and sectors?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得是因为市场本来就在大量抛售软件股，故事已经在酝酿了，而他只是把那个故事讲得特别精彩。
I think because the market was already destroying a lot of the software names, and the narrative was already forming, and he just did an incredible job fictionalizing the narrative.
对。
Yes.
然后市场就顺势而为了。
And the market just took it and ran with it.
对。
Yes.
好。
Alright.
我们一直在聊财报，现在每周我们都有Duality Research的图表。
We've been talking a lot of earnings, and our every week now we have a chart from Duality Research.
顺便说一句，图表很棒。
Great charts, by the way.
就是说，盈利增长不可能一直保持这么高的水平。
Talking about, like, earnings growth can't possibly keep going as high as it has.
对吧？
Right?
就像它的下一个衍生指标，你不可能在30%的增长基础上再保持30%的增长。
Like the the next derivative of it, you can't keep having 30% growth on top of 30% growth.
数字会变得太大。
Like the numbers get too big.
所以Duality Research研究了，好的，从年度同比盈利增长来看，未来的路径预测是什么样的？
So duality research looked at, okay, what's the forward path projection look like in terms of the year over year earnings growth?
显然这个数字在下降，这个趋势会持续到，我想，2027年底。
And it's obviously coming down through so this goes through, like, 2027, I think, end of twenty twenty seven.
你觉得在这种完全合理的情况下，市场会怎么表现？
Do you think the market does in this scenario, which is fully reasonable?
盈利可以继续上升，但增长率是不可持续的。
The earnings can continue to go higher, but the growth rate, it's not sustainable.
对。
Yeah.
仍然是两位数。
Still double digits.
所以在这种情况下，但问题是，你可能会说，哦，那市场肯定得跌。
So in this but here's the thing, like, you would say, oh, well, market has to fall.
我也不确定。
I don't know.
我觉得这算是共识，不是说不好。
I think I think this is consensus, not in a bad way.
我觉得大家都明白
I think everybody understands
已经反映在价格里了，对吧？
baked in, right?
对。
Yeah.
这就是为什么估值倍数降下来了。
That that's why the multiple has come down.
是的。
Yeah.
我也这么觉得。
I think so too.
我觉得这对我来说，这已经算是被市场消化了。
I think this is this to me, this is kinda baked into the pie already.
对。
Yeah.
所以偏离这个预期的部分才是更重要的。
And so the the deviation from this is what matters more.
今天这节目我们聊得可真是够深了，都到第三层效应了。
We're getting into very third order effects here on today's show.
对吧？
Right?
我们聊得很深。
We're going deep.
不是第一层、第二层那么简单。
It's not first order, second order.
好的。
Alright.
我觉得在这种市场周期里，大家最喜欢做的一件有趣的事就是预测它会怎么结束。
So I think one of the fun things that people love to do about market cycles like this is predict how it how it'll end.
对吧？
Right?
而且因为我们有近因偏差，我们会看金融危机和互联网泡沫，然后说，好吧。
And the the because we have recency bias, we look at the great financial crisis and the .com bubble, and we say, okay.
肯定是这两种情况之一。
It's gotta be one of those.
当这波繁荣结束的时候，就是这两种结局之一。
When this thing ends, this boom ends, it's one of those two options.
我想插一嘴，说说我是怎么想象这件事会怎么结束的。
I wanna put throw my head in the ring on how, like, I I think I'm trying to visualize how this thing will end when it ends.
因为Go
Because Go
什么时候会结束呢？
when will it end?
约翰·布鲁克斯的《沸腾的岁月》。
The Go Go years by John Brooks.
太棒了。
Fantastic.
好书。
Great book.
这是历史上一个熊市，回头看时，几乎没人提起。
This is one of the bear markets that you look back historically and no one ever talks about.
那是“漂亮五十”的终结。
It was the end of the Nifty Fifty.
那是在70年代之前。
It was before the 1970s.
那是在1973、1974年那次更大的崩盘之前，所以没人真正给它应有的地位，而这本书记录了它。
It was before the 'seventy three, 'seventy four crash, which was bigger, so no one really gives it its place, and this book does.
这本书把涨跌都写出来了。
It it gives the up and the down.
非常棒。
It's great.
迈克尔·刘易斯为它写了序言。
Michael Lewis writes a forward for it.
我记得第一次读的时候，心里想，哇，我从来没这么想过。
I remember reading this the first time and thinking like, wow, I never thought of it that way.
书里提到，当时是1968年到1970年，那是一个36%的熊市，这算是
And he they they talk about in the book that at the time so this is 1968 to 1970, it was a 36% bear market, which is
挺多的。
It's a lot.
还算可以，但这对经济衰退来说算是平均水平。
It's a decent, but that's that's average for a recession.
经济衰退，那算是
A recession That is
那时候叫“狂飙年代”，有很多热门股票直接跌了80%。
was like, it was called the Go Go years, and there was a lot of high flying names that got smoked 80%.
所以我觉得，这可以用来类比现在股市可能发生的情况。
So let me this is why I think this would be a very good analogy for what could happen to this stock market.
他们就说，听着。
So they say, listen.
大萧条时期，股市跌了大概90%。
The Great Depression, the stock market dropped like 90%.
这怎么能跟36%的跌幅比呢？
How could you possibly compare that to a 36% drop?
于是他们说，有个财务顾问研究了当时最大的那些股票。
So they said that there was a financial consultant who looked at the biggest stocks of the day.
就是大家抢着买的30只最热门的明星股。
All like the 30 biggest glamour stocks that people were buying.
IBM、宝丽来、施乐，还有那些大家都挤进去买的公司。
IBM and, Polaroid and Xerox and all these companies that everyone piled into.
这些股票就像是“漂亮五十”的一部分。
These were, like, part of the Nifty Fifty.
而这些股票的平均跌幅大概有80%。
And the average decline of these stocks was, like, 80%.
在这30只股票中，平均跌幅是80%。我是说，这不是你和Josh、Sean搞的那个什么“堕落道指”，但据说它们跌了80%。
In the 30 the average decline of all 30 stocks in this handmade I mean, this is not like your degen Dow that you and Josh came up with and Sean, but they said they fell 80%.
而且他们说，当时有更多人的钱在股市里，有更多人的钱在这些股票上，比当年在道指上的还要多。
And so they were saying and more people had money in the stock market then, and more people had money in these names than they had in the Dow back in the day.
所以这个人试图论证，1968年到1970年那次“Go Go年代”末期的崩盘，实际上比大萧条还要严重，因为当时有更多家庭投资股票。
And so this guy was trying to make the case that this nineteen sixty eight to nineteen seventy crash at the end of the GoGo years was actually worse than the Great Depression because more households were investing in stocks.
我确实觉得，这似乎是一个很好的思考方式，来理解这种情况：你有一个普通的熊市，但有很多股票跌了60%、70%、80%。
And I do think that you this this to me seems like a good way to think about this playing out where you have kind of a run of the mill bear market, but there's plenty of stocks that fall sixty, seventy, 80%.
这难道不比互联网泡沫破裂时股市跌75%到80%更可信吗？
Doesn't that seem like more plausible than a .com bubble blow up where the stock market falls 75, 80?
哦，对。
Oh, yeah.
我能说句话吗？
Can I can I say something?
嗯。
Mhmm.
我们刚刚在2021年就看到了这种情况。
We just saw that in 2021.
对。
Right.
你知道2022年这些股票跌了35%吗？
Do you know that in 2022, the queues fell 35%?
Facebook呢
What Facebook
跌了70%，而视频股跌了66%。
was on 70, and video was on 66.
是的。
Yeah.
整个科技综合体，DocuSign、Teladoc、Peloton，这些名字都跌了百分之八十以上。
The whole art complex, DocuSign, Teladoc, Peloton, those names fell 80 plus percent.
2022年看起来和GoGo年代一模一样，无论是股票还是指数层面。
2022 looked exactly like the GoGo years, both at the stock and the index level.
对。
Yeah.
那接下来的这个周期会不会也类似呢？
And could this next whenever be similar?
是的。
Yeah.
听着，我觉得，金融方面我懂什么？
Listen, I think I think a financial what do I know?
没人能准确预测这个。
Nobody nobody could nail this.
我不认为这会以金融危机结束。
I don't think this ends with the financial crisis.
我现在对马克·沃尔特和古根海姆的故事非常感兴趣，还有那些保险公司之间发生的各种猫腻和勾当。
Now I am very interested in the Mark Walter Guggenheim story and the web of chicanery and shenanigans that's happening with the insurance entities.
那我先把这个记下来，以后再说。
So I'll put this in here for later.
大概两个月前，我开始听史蒂夫·艾斯曼的播客，我之前都不知道你也有一个，后来不知怎么的就看到了，真的挺不错的。
I about two months ago, I started listening to the Steve Eisman podcast, which I didn't even know you had one, and I came across it for some reason, and I it it's really good.
他请了一个嘉宾聊人寿保险行业，说现在正酝酿着一场危机，因为所有那些私募股权公司现在都拥有寿险公司，他们把这些寿险资金拿去投资风险更高的资产。
And he had a guy on there talking about the life insurance industry and how this is a crisis that's brewing because all these private equity companies now own the life insurers, and they're taking this money from life insurance and putting it in riskier assets.
我当时听了，觉得这好像是挺遥远的事情，但我一直在想，那现在会有什么影响呢？
And I listened to the time and I thought, that seems like something for, like, way out in the future maybe, but I I'm trying to think of, like, what are the ramifications for now?
我当时想不出任何影响。
And I couldn't come up with any.
然后你开始多读一些关于古根海姆的情况，你就会想，天哪。
And then you start reading more about this Guggenheim situation and and you go, oh my gosh.
私募股权和私募信贷简直是做这种事的完美工具，因为这里面有很多都是自我报告，而且看起来，这背后可能远不止这个人干的这些事。
That this private equity and private credit are the perfect vehicles to do this in because it's a lot of self reporting, and it it does seem like there could be way, way more under the hood than just this guy doing this.
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