高利率比零利率政策更糟吗？（第486集）

大衣？

Overcoat?

海军呢大衣？

Pea coat?

我们看的是什么？

What are we looking at?

我，我不知道那是什么

I I don't know what that

我和他正在聊。

and I were talking.

也许是，也许是军装夹克。

Maybe maybe military jacket.

有趣的是，我其实买了……

The funny thing is is that I actually bought...

那家公司的CEO上了帕特里克·奥肖内斯的播客，然后……

The the CEO for that company was on Patrick O'Shares' podcast, and it...

她讲了个很棒的故事。

She told a great story.

而且那是个……

And it was a...

然后我买了那只股票，确实赚了不少，后来她辞职了。

And I bought the stock and actually did really well, and then she quit.

我当时就想，好吧。

And I was like, okay.

我撤了。

I'm out.

我……

I...

然后那只股票从那以后跌了大概95%。

And and the stock is down, like, 95% since then.

它跌到了……

It got...

我不知道。

I don't know.

我……

I'm...

好像只有我一个人还在用它们。

Like, I must be the only one who still uses them.

现在你可以上传你的照片了。

You can now, like, upload your photo.

这真是个疫情故事。

What a pandemic story this was.

显然，公司会成功的。

I mean, obviously, company's gonna work.

没人能购物。

Nobody could shop.

这不是那个……

Isn't this the...

这不就是为什么，用AI代理购物这事儿有点被夸大了吗？

Isn't this why, like, some of the stuff about shopping using an AI agent is a little overblown?

我觉得人们已经表现出他们喜欢购物。

I think people have shown that they enjoy shopping.

也许不是所有东西都这样，但那种让AI代理帮你买所有东西、帮你挑的想法，我觉得人们还是想自己来。

Maybe not for everything, but the whole idea that, like, your AI agent is gonna do all the shopping for you and pick it, like, I think people still want to do that.

我觉得人们从购物中得到那种多巴胺的快感。

Think people get whatever the dopamine hit that is from shopping.

比如，我就喜欢购物。

Like, I enjoy shopping.

我超爱购物。

I love shopping.

谁不喜欢花钱呢？

Who doesn't like spending money?

好吧。

Okay.

说得对。

Good point.

好的。

Alright.

这里有个故事……

Here's here's a story that...

这个故事，标题和实际内容完全对不上。

Where the the the headline of the story does not match the actual what's going on in the story.

所以这里说……

So this says...

这是彭博社的报道。

This is on Bloomberg.

高收入者不再存满401k，赌自己能更聪明地规划退休储蓄。

High earners stop maxing out four zero one k's betting they can outsmart retirement savings.

在大量在线投资建议的帮助下，精明的储蓄者正在寻找更好的理财方式。

Armed with a flood of online investing advice, savvy savers on the hunt for better ways to grow their money.

现在你看到这个，你会想，哎呀。

Now you look at this and you go, oh, boy.

这真是时代的标志。

This is this is a sign of the times.

这就是……

This is...

你读那个标题，会觉得这可不是什么好事。

You read that headline and you go, this is this is not good.

但如果你看实际报道，他们采访了一堆财务顾问，问这是怎么回事。

But if you look at the actual story, they interviewed a bunch of financial advisors, and they're asking, like, why is this happening?

然后人们……

And people...

我猜人们现在不像以前那样把401(k)存满了。

I guess people are not maxing out their four n k's anymore as much as they did in the past.

即使是那些年收入15万美元以上的有钱人也不这么做了，他们说，这是为什么呢？

Even wealthy people who make, like, a $150,000 or more are not doing it, and they say, well, why is this happening?

很多人觉得，把钱放在经纪账户里更灵活，即使要交税。

And a lot of people have decided that it's just more flexibility if you have money in a brokerage account even though you're paying taxes.

而且我们还有……

And we've got...

比如在《问复合》节目里，我们收到了无数人的提问，他们说，你知道吗？

Like, on Ask The Compound, we've gotten a million questions from people going, you know what?

我职业生涯的头二十年都在存钱。

I saved for my first twenty years of my career.

我现在快五十了。

I'm in my late forties now.

如果我想提前退休，但我的钱都在延税退休账户里，怎么办？

What if I wanna retire early and all my money is in a tax deferred retirement account?

我觉得把钱放在经纪账户里其实更好，即使可能要交税，即使401k更方便。

I think it's actually better for me to put money in a brokerage even though there is a potential tax hit there, and even though a four zero one k is more convenient.

我的看法，这只是个人看法，我在退休账户里的表现要好得多。

My my take, and this is a personal take, I am so much better behaved in my retirement accounts.

我在退休账户里从来没做过任何让我后悔的事。一次都没有。

I have never done anything Not one time have I done something that I regret in my retirement account.

你知道我在券商账户里做过多少让自己后悔的事吗？

Do you know how many times I've regretted doing something in my brokerage account?

比例有一百比一吗？

Is it a 100 to one?

你多久查一次你的401(k)余额？

How often do you check your four zero one k balance?

基本上，可能永远不会。

Basically, never probably.

它跟我的富达证券账户是关联的，所以我能看到。

It's it's linked to my Fidelity brokerage, so I see it.

但我现在状态不太好。

But I'm not Okay.

但这不像你的证券账户那样，你会一直盯着看业绩表现，你说得对。

But it's not like your brokerage where you're constantly checking the performance and the you're right.

我觉得我并不是个特例。

I and I think I I don't think I'm an outlier here.

我需要我的退休账户来管住我的手，不让我乱动。

I need my retirement account to keep me to keep me to keep my hands off the wheel.

我同意，这确实很方便，尤其是直接从你账户里扣钱。

I agree that there there's something just convenient about it, especially it comes right out of your account.

很简单。

It's easy.

而且是自动的。

It's automated.

我觉得这确实有道理。

I agree that there's something to that.

我觉得更多的人是在试图——你知道吗？

I think these are more people who are really trying to You know what?

过度优化。

Overoptimize.

但是

But

我明白。

I understand.

而且还有……

And and there's...

确实有人……

There there is people...

有些人就是优化机器，比如尼克·马茹尔，他们能做到。

There are people that are optimizers that are machines like Nick Majoule that can do it.

我不是那种人。

I'm not one of those people.

对。

Yes.

我同意。

I I agree.

大多数人需要那道屏障。

Most people need that barrier.

我需要的是，不，不是这样。

I need like, nope.

这已经三十年了。

This is thirty years.

好吧。

Alright.

眼不见，心不烦。

Out of sight, out of mind.

好吧。

Alright.

所以上周我在机场有一次擦鞋的经历。

So I had a shoeshine moment at the airport this past week.

上周我出了趟门。

I traveled a little bit last week.

我得跟你说这个。

I've gotta tell you this.

我差点就把这段对话录下来了。

I I almost recorded this conversation.

我真的很想录下来。

I I almost wanted to.

我当时坐在航班上，我们的航班延误了，关于这个我待会儿在旅行板块有个故事要讲。

So I'm sitting at a flight, and our flight gets delayed, and I've got a story about that later for the travel section.

有个二十多岁的小伙子，戴着反扣的帽子，戴着AirPods，在机场里还戴着墨镜。

And there's a young twenties bro who's got, like, his hat on backwards, and he's got his AirPods in, he's got his sunglasses on in the airport.

他来回走着，跟电话里的另一个哥们儿聊天。

He's walking back and forth having a conversation with another bro on the phone.

你懂吧？

Okay?

我听到他说话，而且他说得特别大声，所有人都能听见。

And I hear him talking, and he's talking very loudly so everyone can hear him.

你知道那种人吧。

You know those people.

他们就是不想……

They don't...

他们想让所有人都听到他们的对话。

They want everyone to hear their conversation.

然后他在讲他怎么在演唱会上花了一大堆钱。

And he's talking about how he's spending all this money on concerts.

他说，哥们儿，我在他的演唱会上砸了一千五百美元，我在那个演唱会上花了这么多钱。

He's like, guy, I blew $1,500 on his concert, I spent this much on his concert.

然后他说，兄弟……

And he goes, bro...

他是那种每句话都要带“兄弟”的人。

You know, he's one of those guys that uses bro every other...

这都成口头禅了。

It's a crutch.

我没什么资格说别人，因为我……

I I can't judge because I...

我年轻的时候，说的是“哥们”。

When I was younger, it was dude.

我们每句话里都带“哥们”。

We said dude for every other word.

所以现在那些说“兄弟”的人……

So the people who now use bro

我“哥们”和“兄弟”都说。

I say dude and bro.

我就管克里斯叫“哥们，兄弟，哥们”。

I I call it Chris dude, bro, dude.

你不说“哥们”或“兄弟”吗？

You don't say dude or bro?

我对我儿子会故意这么说，因为他老挂在嘴边。

I do it ironically to my son because he says it all the time.

所以这家伙说，听着，哥们。

So this guy says, listen, man.

幸好我卖了些股票来付这笔钱，不然我就得负债了。

Luckily, was able to sell some stocks to pay for this because otherwise I was gonna go in debt.

然后他说，如果股市不再上涨，我就……我当时真想把手搭在他肩膀上，跟他说，听着。

And he goes, if the stock market stops going up, I'm And I I wanted to, like, push hand on his shoulder and just just say, like, listen.

这个……

This...

我觉得这是每个人都需要学会的事情。

I think this is just something everyone needs to learn.

就是……

It was just...

是不是……

Is it...

在我脑子里，之前……

In my brain before...

你讲那个故事的时候，就像擦鞋童的故事一样。

As you're telling that story, like, shoeshine story.

每个人对股市都了如指掌。

Everybody knows everything about the stock market.

那里已经没有更多信号了，我觉得那不是……

There's there's no more signal there, and I don't think that's...

那只是……

I mean, that's just...

那挺搞笑的。

That is pretty funny.

这个不错。

That's a good one.

是的。

Yes.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Alright.

我不想总是把自己定位成一个专门唱反调、什么都质疑的人，但我确实觉得有些事情值得去质疑。

I don't wanna be totally locked in as the anti anti survey guy all the time that, like, questions everything, but I do think it's worth questioning stuff.

所以我想聊聊那个……

So I I wanna talk about the...

《华尔街日报》上的那篇报道，它有一个……

This story in The Wall Street Journal that had a...

那篇报道当时传得挺广，还有点小轰动。

That was going around and kinda went viral.

美联储每三年会做一次消费者财务调查，这个调查在美国财富领域算是黄金标准了。

So every three years, the Fed does this survey of consumer finances, and this thing is like the gold standard of wealth in America.

尼克写的那本书就用了很多这些数据。

So Nick wrote a book using a lot of this data.

这个嘛……

It's it's...

他们每三年做一次。

They do it every three years.

所以2019年、2022年、2025年的数据刚出来。

So 2019, 2022, 2025 just came out.

所有经济学爱好者都为此疯狂。

All the econ dorks went crazy for this.

对吧？

Okay?

他们按年龄看经通胀调整后的中位净资产变化，结果显示75岁及以上的人增长了35%。

So they look at the change in median net worth adjusted for inflation by age, and it shows for people who are 75 or older, it went up 35%.

35岁及以下的人下降了超过20%，而且大多数人的情况参差不齐。

For people who are 35 and younger, it was down more than 20%, and it was kind of uneven for most of these people.

我看了这些数据，觉得有些地方不对劲，因为2022年是熊市。

And I looked at this data and I thought, something about it doesn't make sense to me because 2022 was a bear market.

股票跌，债券跌，两者都大幅下跌。

Stocks down, bonds down, both down big.

2022年也是通胀的高峰期。

2022 is also a peak for inflation.

你猜猜看，2023年到2025年的平均通胀率是多少？

Do you know what the average inflation rate is from 2023 to 2025 if you had to guess?

3.4。

3.4.

每年3%。

3% per year.

不算高。

Not that high.

所以那些通胀……

So all the inflate...

高通胀其实并没有真正发生。

High inflation did very kinda happen.

所以你有……

So you had...

而且，再说一遍，这些都是经过通胀调整的数据。

And, again, this is all inflation adjusted data.

所以我特意去查了一下，因为这太疯狂了。

So I kind of went and looked in this because it's crazy.

Cullen说，自2013年以来，家庭实际财富中位数暴涨了91%。

So Cullen said that median real household wealth has exploded 91% since 2013.

这个数字在扣除通胀后依然非常惊人。

That's a massive number adjusted for inflation.

所以我看了很多这些数字，但一直想不通。

So I looked at a lot of these numbers, and I couldn't quite wrap my head around it.

其中很大一部分是因为……

And a lot of it is there was...

从2019年到2022年，30岁以下人群的财富增长了大约140%。

It was like a 140% increase for for '30...

35岁以下的人群也是，从2019年到2022年增长了140%。

Under '35 from 2019 to 2022.

所以，嗯……

So have...

所以即使过去三年下降了23%，35岁以下这个群体仍然是增长最大的。

So even with the decrease in 23% in the last three years, that group has seen the biggest increase under 35.

但我也深入看了数据，他们确实有这些数据，我就想，到底有多少人真正回答了这些调查？

But I also dug into the data, and they they have this, and I said, well, how many people are actually answering these surveys?

再说一次，这是黄金标准，所以我并不是想完全否定它。

And again, this this is the gold standard, so I'm not trying to totally debunk it.

但你看这个。

But look at this.

这是来自这个调查的。

This is from this survey.

2016年，普通人群，也就是你会发送调查的那些人，有65%的人会回应。

In 2016, the general population, the people you'd send this to, 65% of people would respond.

现在只有45%。

Now it's 45%.

但以前富人的回复率是33%。

But wealthy people used to be 33%.

现在只有24%。

Now it's 24%.

所以有钱人现在不太愿意填问卷了，回复率低了很多。

So rich people are no longer answering surveys and do so at a much lower rate.

所以我在想，这些数据会不会开始变得不靠谱，不再有代表性，因为过去三年股市一直很牛。

And so I'm just wondering if these numbers are gonna start getting screwy and not be representative because the last three years has been a raging bull market.

我知道不是每个人都有金融资产。

I know not everyone owns financial assets.

很多数据显示，如果你有金融资产，你确实赚了不少。

A lot of the data showed if you own financial assets, you did really well.

如果没有，就没那么好了。

If you didn't, you didn't do as well.

但我有点怀疑这些数字，因为有钱人现在都不怎么回问卷了。

But I'm kinda questioning these numbers a little bit because rich people aren't answering surveys anymore.

所以我觉得这低估了国家的财富。

So I think it's underreporting the wealth of the country.

这是……

Is that...

你觉得这个看法合理吗？

Do you think that's a fair take?

完全合理。

Totally.

因为

Because

嗯，这不仅仅是合理。

Well, it's it's beyond fair.

这简直是……

It's just...

我觉得你刚才说的，你摆出的这个论点不是基于个人观点的。

I mean, I feel like what you just said, you laid out a case that's not based on opinion.

这是基于数据的。

It's based on numbers.

而且如果回答的人中富裕的较少，那么结果就会偏低。

And if if you have less wealthy people answering, then the outcome will be skewed lower.

不是吗？

No?

没错。

Exactly.

我是不是漏掉了什么？

Am missing something?

我就是这个意思。

That's what I'm saying.

好的。

Okay.

我不知道有没有办法解决这个问题。

I don't know if there's not a way to fix this.

但是那个……

But that...

所以我觉得《邻家的百万富翁》这本书特别好，因为他们用的是人们真实的纳税申报单。

That's why I think that Everywhere a Millionaire Millionaire book was so good because they used actual tax returns of people.

他们直接找到了数据的真正来源，拿到了第一手资料。

They went to the actual source of the data and got it.

而不是……

Not...

他们没有问人们：“你感觉怎么样？”

They didn't ask people, how do you feel?

“你财务状况如何？”

How are you doing financially?

他们看的是实际的数据。

They looked at the actual numbers.

所以我觉得那本书特别重要。

That's why I think that book was so important.

这里另一个好的数据点是自2019年以来的变化。

Another good data point in here is the change since 2019.

我看到有几个人在分享这个。

I saw a few people sharing this.

35岁以下的人群在通胀调整后上涨了近90%。

Under 35 is up almost 90% after inflation.

所以这是最大的增幅。

So that's the biggest increase.

所以可能之前三年的原始增长太高了，而这次太低了。

So it it it could be that maybe some of that original increase in the three years prior was too high, and this one was too low.

当你把它们平均起来看，数据看起来更好。

And when you average them out, they look better.

但是，是的，这就是重点。

But, yeah, that's the point.

经过通胀调整后，每个人的情况都好了很多。

After inflation, everyone is doing a lot better.

所以总的来说，还是好消息。

So still good news, I'd say.

但我有点怀疑。

But I'm I'm questioning a little bit.

好吧。

Alright.

AI对经济是好是坏？

Is AI good for the economy and bad for the economy?

这个……

This j...

你看到Jason Furman的这张图表了吗？

You saw this Jason Furman chart here?

是的。

Yep.

实际建筑支出同比增长。

Real construction spending year over year.

数据中心增长了65%。

Data center's up 65%.

其他几乎所有东西都在下降。

Everything else, almost.

多户住宅、独栋住宅、住宅、医疗保健、商业、教育、办公楼、住宿、制造业，全部都在下降。

Multifamily, single family home, residential, health care, commercial, education, offices, lodging, manufacturing, all down.

而且制造业下降得非常厉害。

And manufacturing was down huge.

所以这……

So it it...

从这个图表来看，过去一年里，唯一在建的就是AI相关的东西。

From this chart, it looks like over the last year, the only thing getting built is AI stuff.

所以有趣的是，每个人都说AI在支撑经济，但它也在某种程度上挤占了其他领域，拖累了其他一切。

So it's funny that everyone says, well, AI is propping up the economy, but it's it's also kind of crowding stuff out and holding everything else back.

这样说公平吗？

Is that fair?

那么有没有可能，如果AI受挫，这些行业会稍微回暖，然后出现反转呢？

So is there any possibility that we could see a flipping of this if AI suffers and this stuff comes back a little bit?

可能来不及抵消。

Probably not in time to offset.

就像股市那样，可以接力棒。

Like the stock market where you you could just pass the baton.

我觉得这需要一段时间。

I think this this is gonna this is gonna take a while.

这可能会变得更糟。

This might this might get worse.

但你记得吗……

But do you remember...

制造业下降了24%。

So manufacturing down 24%.

记得那是关税带来的大事，斯科特·贝森说的。

Remember that was the big thing from the tariffs that Scott Besson said.

是时候了……

It's time...

不再依赖华尔街了。

No more Wall Street.

现在是时候关注普通民众了。

It's time for Main Street.

我们要把制造业带回来……

We're gonna bring manufacturing back...

这就是关税的全部意义。

That was the whole idea of tariffs.

我们要把制造业带回我们的国家。

We're bringing manufacturing back to our shores.

那

That

是

was

就是这个想法。

the idea.

显然，这并没有实现。

Obviously, that didn't happen.

如果你去看的话，纽约联储发布了这份报告。

And if you look at it, the New York Fed did this report.

我相信你肯定看到了。

I'm sure you saw this.

到2026年2月，关税已经导致商品价格通胀上升了2.9个百分点。

By February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to a goods price inflation.

如果没有关税，商品价格本来会大幅下降。

Without them, goods prices would have fallen significantly.

所以他们展示了实际发生的情况。

So they show what happened.

他们仔细分析了实际发生的情况。

They they look at what happened.

报告说关税提高了消费品价格，差距大约有三个百分点。

It says tariff tariffs raise consumer goods prices, and it it was a three percentage point difference.

狗进来了吗？

Dog coming in?

她玩得很开心。

She is having a great time.

你做什么工作？

What do you do?

当狗也不容易啊，是吧？

Tough life tough life being a dog, isn't it?

喂？

Hello?

我不太清楚她在干什么。

I'm not sure what she's doing.

他们展示了有关税和没有关税的对比情况。

They show the counterfactual without tariffs and with tariffs.

发生了什么？

What happened?

商品价格涨了三个百分点。

We got three percentage point increase in goods prices.

我觉得这可能是我们有过的最糟糕的经济政策之一。

I think this this is possibly one of the worst economic ideas we've ever had.

这……

There...

这没有……

There's no...

你没法……

You can...

你没法说它带来了实实在在的好处，比如真的增加了制造业岗位。

There's no tangible benefit that you can say, well, it did actually bring more manufacturing jobs.

它确实带来了……

It did bring...

这件事一点好处都没有。

There was no benefit whatsoever to this.

一点都没有。

Not one.

这是少有的几次，我觉得大多数理智的人都认为这是个糟糕的主意。

One of the rare times where I think most sane people said, this is a terrible idea.

甚至不是那种党派之争的问题。

Not even like a partisan type of thing.

感觉很多人……

Feel like a lot...

大家都觉得，哇。

Everybody was like, woah.

除了那些从中受益的人，所有人都说，这这这……

Other than the people on the teat, everybody said like, this is this is a this is...

不。

Nope.

咱们别

Let's not

这么干。

do this.

你还记得吗，当时有人在CNBC上说，我们需要一场经济衰退，才能实现制造业的复兴？

Do you remember there was people going on CNBC saying, we need to have a recession to do this, to make this manufacturing stuff happen?

现在你可以说，听好了。

Now you could say, listen.

嘿。

Hey.

现在有很多新建数据中心的工作岗位。

We're There's a ton of new construction jobs for creating data centers.

这……

That...

这可能是你能够

That's that's probably something that you could

我是不是记错了，他们当时说那个……

Am I am I am I misremembering them saying that the the...

贝森说经济需要吃药？

Besson saying the the economy needs to take its medicine?

当时有很多人说我们需要……

There was a lot of people saying we need to go...

需要经历一场衰退。

Need to have recession.

不是一般人说的。

Not not people.

具体来说，是贝森说的吗？

Like, literally, was was Besson saying it?

我有点……

I I don't...

我记不太清了。

I can't quite remember.

我，我……

I I...

我确定……

I'm sure...

我不知道。

I don't know.

当时有很多人这么说。

There was a lot of people who said that.

好吧。

Alright.

我有个有争议的观点要跟你说，因为我觉得现在……

I have a controversial take for you because I I I think right now...

你读过爱德华·钱塞勒的《时间的代价》这本书吗？

So did you read the book The Price of Time by Edward Chancellor?

这是其中一本……

It's one of

是我最喜欢的书之一，本，一直放在我书架上，我可能永远不会去读。

my favorite books, Ben, that's been on my shelf that I probably will never read.

我想读，

I would

但就是那种……

like to, but it's it's it's like the...

是关于债券的。

It's bonds.

对。

Yes.

PLDR。

PLDR.

就是那种……

It's the store...

就是……

It's...

但这也是为什么我们需要利率的故事。

But but it's also the story of why we need interest rates.

而且这有点像风险的定价，利率就像是时间的价格和风险的价格，而且每个……

And it's it's kinda like the pricing of risk, and and interest rates are like the price of time and the price of risk and every...

就像……

It's like...

而且重点在于，0%的利率造成的问题远比它们能解决的要多。

And the whole point was 0% interest rates are causing way more problems than they could...

比解决任何问题还要多。

Than fixing anything.

而且重点是，这会导致巨大的失衡和严重的问题。

And the point was this is gonna lead to huge imbalances and big problems.

而且我觉得你可以这么说。

And I think you could make the case.

大家都在说零利率政策会有多糟糕，会引发危机，但危机从未发生。

Everyone talked about how bad ZIRP was gonna be and how it's gonna cause a crisis that never happened.

我觉得现在可以说，高利率对经济的负面影响比零利率政策还要严重。

I think you could say that right now, higher interest rates are worse than ZIRP was for the economy.

零利率政策其实并没有造成什么……

ZIRP really didn't cause any...

当然，确实有一些风险投资和项目被资助了。

I mean, sure, there was some venture capital risks being taken and stuff funded.

我觉得可以这么说。

I think you could make the case.

现在的情况对经济太糟糕了，对住房市场、对借贷都极其不利，所以现在比零利率政策更糟糕。

The current situation is so bad for the economy, for how bad it is for housing, how bad it is for borrowing, that this right now is worse than ZIRP.

好的。

Okay.

我觉得这是个有趣的观点，但我没有资格来回答。

I feel like that's an interesting point that I don't feel qualified to answer.

我想听听，比如，尼尔·杜德跟别人辩论一下。

I'd like to hear, like, Neil Dudde debate somebody.

我甚至不知道尼尔会站在哪一边，但我觉得那是个经济学家的问题。

I don't even know which side Neil would be on, but I feel like that's an economist.

那是个……

That's that's a

房地产活动完全死气沉沉。

The housing activity is absolutely dead.

那占了经济的20%。

That's 20% of the economy.

我不是说我们应该回到零利率，但我是说……

I'm not saying we should go back to ZIRP, but I'm saying

好的。

Okay.

我的第一反应是不。

My knee jerk reaction is no.

那不对。

That's not right.

我不这么认为。

I don't think so.

对我们当前的经济来说，低利率，比如2%到3%，相比4%到5%更好。

For our current economy, lower rates, say two to 3% versus four to 5%.

低利率比高利率好。

Lower rates are better than higher rates.

哇。

Wow.

你这么快就改变立场了，本·卡尔森。

How quickly you just moved the goalpost, Ben Carlson.

我不是想说我们需要

I'm I'm not trying to say that we need to

回去工作。

go back to work.

这观点真有意思。

What a take.

本·卡尔森说，在当前经济下，2.5%的利率比5%要好。

Ben Ben Carlson says that two and a half percent rates are better than five in this current economy.

这可是大新闻啊。

Stop the presses.

不。

No.

我的主要观点是，我认为现在的高利率，也就是当前的利率水平，比2010年代所有的零利率政策对经济更不利。

My big take is I think higher rates, current level of rates right now, are worse for the economy than ZIRP was in all the two thousand tens.

好吧。

Okay.

那你真的这么认为吗？

So do you really believe that?

我确实这么认为。

I I do believe that.

零利率政策到底造成了什么...

What what what did ZIRP cause...

零利率政策造成了哪些失衡，最终导致了危机？

What what imbalances did ZIRP cause that led to a crisis?

给我一周时间，我们回头再聊这个。

Give give it a week, and let's let's re...

我们可以重新讨论一下。

We can rehash this.

我觉得你真的需要好好想想这个问题。

I think I feel like you need to, like, really think about this.

我知道……

I I know...

我希望你也想想这个问题。

I want you to think about it.

我已经想过了。

I've thought about it.

我……

I I

你知道吗？

You know what?

我真的很忙。

I'm I'm I'm very busy.

不过这个周末我要去看Metallica的演出。

I'm going to see Metallic, though, this weekend.

我不想思考这个问题。

I don't feel like thinking about it.

你来想吧。

You think about it.

零利率并没有导致危机。

Zero percent interest rates led to no crisis.

并没有因为零利率而引发危机。

There was not a crisis that came about because of it.

更高的利率反而可能会引发危机，而且已经在房地产市场发生了。

Higher rates are going to probably cause a crisis, and they already have in the housing market.

好的。

Alright.

这里还有一个观点。

Here's another take.

准备好了吗？

Ready?

我我我……

I I I...

我今天观点特别多，所以我就一直跟你说。

I'm full of takes today, so I'm just gonna keep throwing them at you.

好的。

Okay.

你说吧。

Go ahead.

所以乔·韦森塔尔分享了伊根·琼斯的这个东西。

So Joe Weisenthal shared this thing from Eagan Jones.

等等。

Wait.

等一下，等一下。

Hang hang on.

我，我，就一个……

I've I've one just...

就一句话。

One thing to say.

我觉得有人把零利率时代和民粹主义直接画等号。

I think there are people that draw a direct line from the ZIRP era to, like, populism.

比如说，零利率导致了财富不平等，然后……

Like, ZIRP caused wealth inequality and...

我完全不认同这个说法。

I I reject that wholeheartedly.

在我看来，这纯属胡扯。

To me, that's nonsense.

我们的制度会导致财富不平等，因为现在利率高的时候，人们会说，这对财富不平等不利，因为现在只有富有的资产所有者能获得更高的利率。

Our system causes wealth inequality because right now, when rates are higher, people go, well, this is bad for wealth inequality because it's just rich asset owners who are getting higher interest rates now.

所以，无论什么情况，你都可以说这对财富不平等不利。

So any any situation you can say this is bad for wealth inequality.

好的。

Alright.

你下一个观点是什么？

What's your next take?

好的。

Alright.

过去五十年里，除了美国之外，最大的两个经济体，我们却完全不能用它们来和我们的经济做比较，这真的很奇怪。

It's really weird that the two biggest economies of the last fifty years besides The United States, we can't use them to compare to our economy at all.

日本是最大的例外。

Japan was, like, the biggest outlier ever.

中国也是一样。

Same thing with China.

很奇怪的是，另外两个最大的经济体跟经济理论实际上一点关系都没有。

It's very bizarre that the two other biggest economies have no bearing in reality to, like, economic theory.

所以Egan Jones显示……

So Egan Jones shows...

因为想想日本。

Because think about Japan.

三十年的通缩，低利率。

Thirty years of deflation, low interest rates.

有点像，是的。

It's kinda like, yeah.

但那是日本。

But that was Japan.

那是个例外。

That's an outlier.

中国。

China.

他们展示了名义GDP……

They show nominal g...

他们展示了从2004年到2025年的所有这些经济统计数据。

They show all these economic statistics from 2004 to 2025.

名义GDP增长。

Nominal GDP growth.

加拿大……

Canada...

或者说，中国把我们甩得远远的。

Or or China smoked us.

实际GDP增长也把我们甩得远远的。

Real GDP growth smoked us.

平均工资增长。

Average wage growth.

他们的工资涨了13倍。

Their wages were up 13 times.

而我们的工资在2000年到2024年间只涨了2.2倍。

Ours were up 2.2 times in two thousand to twenty twenty four.

但他们接着展示了股东回报、我们的股票收益、我们的利润、我们的资本回报率，还有所有这些其他数据。

But then they show the shareholder our stock return, our profits, our return on capital, all this other stuff.

中国的经济表现和他们的金融市场表现之间，根本没有任何关系。

There's no there's no relationship between China's economic performance and their performance of their financial markets.

所以就像他们是……

And so it's like they're the...

他们又是一个异类。

They're another outlier.

你只能耸耸肩，心想：好吧。

You have to just kinda be like, yeah.

但这就是中国。

But that's China.

把他们排除在外吧。

Throw them away.

就像，另外两个最大的经济体完全是异类，根本说不通。

Like, the two biggest other economies are total outliers that make no sense.

过去五十年里完全说不通。

Absolutely no sense in the last fifty years.

有

There's

不，本，你最近状态火热啊，朋友。

no Ben, are on heater, my friend.

我脑子里有很多想法，对吧？

I got a lot of thoughts going on up here that this, right?

好吧。

Alright.

你听了吗，马克·扎克伯格和约翰·卡尔森一起喝吉尼斯黑啤的那个？

Did you did you listen to the Mark Zuckerberg, thing with John Carlson where they drink Guinness?

那叫什么来着？

What's it called?

是叫“品脱”什么的吗？

Pint something?

你听了吗？

Did you listen to any of it?

没有。

No.

但我确实看到他试着喝吉尼斯黑啤，那画面挺搞笑的。

But I did see him try and drink Guinness, and that was that was funny.

你猜怎么着？

Guess what?

马克·扎克伯格可能没法像我这样一口闷掉整杯吉尼斯。

Mark Zuckerberg probably can't split the g like yours truly.

没错。

Correct.

绝对没戏。

No chance.

那真是太搞笑了。

That was very funny.

他喝了一口，看起来就像有人刚刚，呃，从我嘴里……

He took a sip, and it looked like someone had just, like, out of my...

他有没有稍微晃一晃杯子？

Did he swirl it around a little bit?

基本上，他们说他喝了大概一品脱半。

Basically, he he drank a pint and a half, they said in that.

他们聊的时候，是他和亚历山大·王，就是他们AI项目的负责人。

So they said it and they talk, and it was him and Alexander Wang, who's like the head of their AI build out.

这很明显，但他们谈到了为了搞这个，他们不得不做的巨大投资……

And this is this is obvious, but they were talking about like the huge huge investment that they had to make to get this...

然后扎克伯格就说，听着。

And and Zuckerberg was like, listen.

这可不是小打小闹，试试水那么简单。

There's no, like, dipping your toe in the water here.

就是说，你要么就写一张大额支票，努力把这事儿做成，要么就干脆别做。

It's like you either write a huge huge check and try to make this happen or you don't do it at all.

然后他们说，但是我们的首席财务官说，听着，如果这事儿成了，那就一切都好。

And they were like, but our CFO said, listen, if this is good, it's it's it's all good.

如果我们能从中获得回报，并且成功了，那就没问题。

If we get a return on this and it works, it's fine.

但是我们花了这么多钱，如果结果不好……

But we're spending so much money that if it's bad...

如果结果好，那就好。

If it's if it's good, it's good.

但她就是……

But she's she's...

这是她的首席财务官在说，听着，各位。

This is her CFO being like, listen, guys.

如果我们花了这笔钱，而这个……

If we spend this money and this...

如果我们在这上面得不到任何回报，它不成功，那就会非常非常非常糟糕。

We get no return on this, it doesn't doesn't work, this is gonna be really, really, really bad.

他们就说，对。

And they're they're like, yeah.

这里没有中间地带。

There's there's no there's no middle ground here.

所以那……

So that that...

这就是关键。

This is the thing.

我想这就是为什么那些一直担心AI风险的人，因为如果这不行，就没有软着陆的可能。

And I guess this is why the people who keep worrying about AI risks is that there there there's no soft landing scenario here if this doesn't work.

要么成功，要么硬着陆。

This is either it has to work or there's a hard landing.

我有个看法。

So I've got a take.

对于对着麦克风说话或者敲键盘表达观点、想跟公众交流的人来说，唯一理性的态度就是保持乐观。

The only rational take for people that are speaking into the microphone or onto their keyboard, for people that are communicating, trying to have an opinion with public, Be optimistic.

这有点像谈论股市。

It's sort of like it's sort of like talking about the stock market.

如果股市崩盘了，你也不会得到什么好处。

If the stock market crashes, like, you don't get any points.

大家照样会很生气。

Everybody's still pissed off.

但如果一切顺利，而你却像那个喊狼来了的男孩，人们只会觉得你是个笑话。

But if things go okay and you're the boy who cried wolf, people just think you're a joke.

我觉得这...

And I think it's...

这里有些相似之处。

There's parallels here.

假设世界不会毁灭。

Let's assume the world doesn't end.

就当作这不是《终结者2》那样。

Like, just act as if this is not Terminator two.

好。

Great.

一切都很好。

Everything's fine.

但如果到了2034年，你还在那儿吞吞吐吐地说我们都会死，那你就成了一个不严肃的人。

But if it's 2034 and you're still, like, hemming and hawing about we're all gonna die, it's just like you you become you become an an unserious person.

这个观点不错。

That's a good take.

我也喜欢这个想法……

I I also like the idea that...

我觉得太多人想到了互联网泡沫的风险，以及那对股市来说是一个长达十二年的熊市。

I I think too many people have thought about the .com risk and how that was, like, a twelve year bear market for stock.

我觉得如果真的出现硬着陆，那会非常迅速。

Like, I think if there was a hard landing, it would be very swift.

你……

You...

我们会狠狠挨一脚，然后你猜怎么着？

We'd we'd get a swift kick to the pants, and then guess what?

AI 很可能还是会继续运转。

AI is still probably going to work.

嗯，我想反驳的一点是，就是……

Well, I guess the the counterpoint to that would be there's just...

有大量资金被困住，烧得火热，这会对整个经济造成什么样的损害。

There's a lot of money that's trapped burning on fire, and what sort of damage does that cause throughout the economy.

在这种情况下，可能就有数万亿美元就这么没了。

This is trillions of dollars that might just be gone in that in that case.

但这不像元宇宙、Web3 那种情况，那种就是，好吧，那完全是虚无。

But this is not like a metaverse web three situation where it's like, okay, that was absolutely nothing.

那确实……

That did...

那整个事情就是……

That whole thing was...

我们当时在想什么？

What were we thinking?

这个

This

这个是不是太简单了？

Is this too simple?

这个必须得行，而且一定得行。

This has to work and it has to work.

我觉得是。

I think so.

他们差不多也是这么说的。

That's kinda what they were saying.

就像，我们有……

Like, we have...