本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
每个独立财务顾问都懂这种纠结。
Every RIA knows the tension.
你不想把客户拒之门外。
You don't wanna turn people away.
你也不想设太高的入门门槛，毕竟帮助刚起步的客户，才是建立长期关系的起点。
You don't wanna require high minimums, and you want to help clients who are just getting started because that's where the long term relationships begin.
但事实是这样。
But here's the truth.
那些看似简单的账户，其实特别耗精力。
Those simple accounts, they take a lot of work.
开户、交易、再平衡，没多久，你的团队和后台就被压得喘不过气。
Account opening, trading, rebalancing, and before long, your staff and back office are underwater and trying to stay afloat.
所以，成熟的独立财务顾问都在转向Betterment Advisor Solutions。
That's why established RIAs are turning to Betterment Advisor Solutions.
这个平台专为细分客户群体设计，能高效处理规模小、结构简单的账户。
It's the platform built for segmenting your book and streamlining the smaller and simpler accounts.
开户流程完全自动化，无需纸质文件。
The onboarding experience is automated and paperless.
投资组合管理更高效，还能优化税务。
The portfolio management is streamlined and tax efficient.
客户体验始终如一，而且非常出色。
The client experience is consistent and exceptional.
现在就了解一下，细分客户群能为你的机构带来什么改变。
Explore what segmentation could do for your firm today.
降低运营负担，同时保持高标准的服务质量。
Lower your operational lift, but keep your standard of service high.
这一切，都通过Betterment Advisor Solutions实现。
All with Betterment Advisor Solutions.
你最大的遗憾，就是没早点这么做。
Your biggest regret will be not doing it sooner.
了解更多，请访问betterment.com/advisors。
Learn more at betterment.com/advisors.
本期节目由YCharts赞助播出。
Today's show is sponsored by YCharts.
作为财务顾问，你早就知道，这份工作最难的不是找数据。
Your financial adviser, you already know the hardest part of the job isn't finding data.
而是把数据转化成客户真正能听懂的清晰、有底气的对话和可视化内容。
It's turning that data into clear, confident conversations and visuals clients actually understand.
YCharts帮助顾问更快地做研究，清晰地呈现市场数据，并将复杂的投资组合问题平均转化为客户-ready的洞察。
YCharts helps advisors research faster, visualize market data clearly, and turn complex portfolio questions into client ready insights on average.
使用YCharts的顾问，每月在方案制作、研究和客户准备上能节省大约二十个小时。
Advisors using YCharts save around twenty hours a month across proposals, research, and client prep.
现在，内置的AI工具还能让顾问快速提炼关键要点，理解变化的原因和背景，减少在数据堆里埋头苦干的时间。
And now with built in AI tools, advisors can quickly surface key takeaways, understand what changed and why, and spend less time digging through data.
无论是比较投资组合、压力测试策略，还是实时应对客户的棘手问题，YCharts都能帮你过滤干扰，让客户聚焦在最重要的事情上。
Whether you're comparing portfolios, stress testing strategies, or answering tough client questions in real time, YCharts helps cut through the noise and keep your clients focused on what matters most.
了解更多请访问ycharts.com，或点击节目简介中的链接，免费试用并享受新客户专属的20%首年专业版折扣。
Learn more at ycharts.com or click the link in the show notes to start a free trial and get 20% off your initial YCharts professional subscription, new customers only.
欢迎收听《动物精神》，一档探讨市场、生活与投资的节目。
Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.
一起来听迈克尔·巴特尼克和本·卡尔森聊聊他们最近读了什么、写了什么、看了什么。
Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.
迈克尔和本表达的所有观点均为个人意见，不代表里索尔茨财富管理公司的立场。
All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
本播客仅供信息参考，不应作为任何投资决策的依据。
This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.
里索尔茨财富管理公司的客户可能持有本节目中讨论的证券。
Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
欢迎收听迈克尔和本的《动物精神》。
Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.
迈克尔，最近市场发生了一件事，就在十二到十八个月前，根本没人觉得这可能。
Michael, something is happening in the market that I don't think people really thought was possible as recently as twelve, eighteen months ago.
今年所有资产的表现都超过了标普500指数。
Everything is outperforming the S and P 500 this year.
我先说一下，这是周一收盘时的情况。
And I'm gonna start with the this is through the close on Monday.
你知道吗？
You know what?
我得跟你说道说道。
I got a bone to pick with you.
明白了。
Got it.
你的注意力根本不在这里。
Your attention, it's not there.
我觉得咱俩该去接受婚姻咨询了。
I feel like we need to go to couples counseling.
事情太多了。
There's a lot.
对不起。
I'm sorry.
我很抱歉。
I apologize.
好吧。
Alright.
我就要放在这儿。
I want it right here.
你最近生活中怎么了？
What's going on in your life?
你遇到什么麻烦了吗？
You got problems?
是的。
Yes.
好吧。
Alright.
自己想办法解决。
Figure it out.
没有。
No.
我开玩笑的。
I'm kidding.
好吧。
Alright.
今年所有这些资产的表现都远超标普500。
Everything is outperforming the S and P five hundred this year.
所以我看了罗素2000，数据截止到周一收盘。
And so I got Russell two this is through the close on Monday.
具体数字其实不重要，因为今天情况变化很快，但罗素2000的表现几乎是标普500的两倍。
The numbers don't matter because things are changing today, but the Russell two thousand is outperforming by it's like doubling the S and P.
小盘价值股表现突出得多。
Small cap value, outperforming by a lot.
大盘价值股、房地产信托基金、中盘股、新兴市场、高股息股票，全都大幅跑赢标普500，有些甚至领先很多。
Large cap value, REITs, mid caps, emerging markets, dividend stocks, all outperforming the S and P 500, some by a very large margin.
以前没人觉得这可能实现，我觉得大家只可能想到，如果标普500在下跌，这种情况才可能发生。
I don't think that anyone thought this was possible before, and I think the only way people thought this could happen is if the S and P 500 had been falling.
但到周一收盘为止，它已经上涨了将近百分之十。
And it's up through the close on Monday, up close to 10% per year.
所以，当我们上周聊到分散性的时候，你还记得吗？
And so I I I think the the idea would be when we talked about the dispersion thing last year last week, remember?
那是在科技泡沫时期发生过的事，后来因为2000年代初标普500没怎么涨，其他多元化策略才起作用。
That happened in the tech bubble, and then you had this other diversification stuff work because the S and P didn't in the early two thousands.
现在呢，标普500本身表现就不错，这些策略居然也照样有效。
Now it's working when the S and P actually is having a pretty decent year.
这真有点出人意料。
This is surprising.
是的。
Yeah.
因为那七只科技巨头没参与这波上涨，这才压住了标普500的回报。
Because the Mag seven are not participating in the rally, and that is keeping a lid on the S and P 500 returns.
这确实挺奇怪的。
It is weird.
我真没想到他们会退居二线，而涨势反而扩散到其他股票。
I I don't think that anybody could have predicted that they would take a back seat and the rally would broaden out.
这种情况发生其实很有道理。
It makes a lot of sense why this is happening.
我注意到
I saw
但图表显示，它们还是在压制整体涨幅。
chart even really keeping a lid on it, though.
今年上半年已经涨了10.6%。
It's up 10 six month through the year.
没错。
True.
确实如此。
True.
没错。
True.
没错。
True.
今天早上我看到一张图表，显示微软、亚马逊、谷歌还有另一家公司，它们的平均市盈率达到了过去五年来的最低点。
I saw a chart this morning that the average PE for Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and one other name are at their lowest level in the last five years.
微软现在的股价简直像在崩盘。
Microsoft is trading like death.
看起来糟透了。
It looks terrible.
一点都不意外。
Not surprising.
它是全球最大的软件公司。
It is the largest software stock in the entire world.
所以人工智能正在颠覆整个软件行业。
So AI is disrupting software.
好吧。
Okay.
有道理。
Makes sense.
微软当然有很多业务。
Obviously, Microsoft has many things.
它不只是家软件公司，但现在市场却把它当软件股来炒。
It's not just a software stock, but that's what it's trading like.
Meta的情况也很惨。
Meta is trading terribly as well.
来看看我接下来这张图，上面是所有公司的回撤情况。
Well, look at this next chart I have with all the drawdowns.
微软跌了33%。
Microsoft is down 33%.
Meta差不多跌了30%。
Meta's down almost 30.
甲骨文从高点跌了将近一半。
Oracle's almost 50% off the highs.
奈飞又崩了，还是老样子。
Netflix is still Netflix is crashing again.
你还在持有吗？
Are you still a holder there?
还亏着45%？
Still on 45%?
我持有奈飞。
I own Netflix.
我亏了30%。
I am down 30%.
我说不上来，真没这经历。
I don't think I've I can't say ever.
过去十年，我从来没在任何一只股票上亏过30%。
In the last ten years, I've never been down 30% on a stock.
这根本不合我的风格。
It's just not my style.
我亏了就赶紧割肉。
I I cut my losers fast.
Netflix 其实是我持仓最小的，但我现在持有它完全没问题。
The real Netflix is my smallest position, and I'm very comfortable owning it here.
事实上，我还希望它再跌一点，那样我就能很安心地买进不少了。
In fact, I hope it goes a lot lower because I would be very comfortable buying a decent amount.
是的。
Yeah.
不是说 Netflix 本身，而是从成长股转向价值股的过程总是很混乱，我觉得 Netflix 现在就是这种情况。
The not to get on Netflix specifically, but the transition from a growth stock to a value stock is very messy, and I think that's what's happening right now with Netflix.
好吧。
Alright.
随它吧。
Whatever.
我们没必要谈这个。
We we don't need talk about that.
谷歌也快速下跌了13%。
So we also have Google down a quick 13%.
亚马逊跌了15%。
Amazon down 15%.
特斯拉跌了17%。
Tesla's down 17%.
SpaceX从高点已经跌了25%，这股票已经这么跌了一周了，反正就是这样。
Like, this is to me, SpaceX is down 25% from the from the highs the stock's been trading for a week, whatever.
我觉得这是好消息。
I think this is good news.
市场整体还不错，那些大家一直依赖的公司现在都遭到了打压。
The market is doing okay, and all these companies that people have been relying on forever are getting dinged.
我觉得这对
I think this is great news for the
如果这些是你最重要的股票，那可算不上什么好消息。
It's it's not great news if these are your biggest stocks.
我不想显得不近人情。
I don't wanna be insensitive.
不管是谁亏钱，我都觉得挺难受的。
It sucks when people I don't like when anybody's losing money.
但如果你从宏观角度看，假设这些巨头不至于彻底垮掉，对吧？
But on if you zoom out to the macro level, assuming that these hyperscalers don't completely fall apart because right?
没错。
Like, yeah.
现在看是不错，但微软也跌了60%，这对整个市场可就不那么乐观了。
It's it's good now, but it's like, Microsoft's down 60.
这对整体市场来说可不怎么好。
That wouldn't be so great for the overall overall market.
我觉得这个说法挺有道理的。
I think I think this story makes sense.
你能感觉到这些股票之前的光环正在消退，我真不敢相信我刚才用了Josh的词来描述这个现象。
You're seeing the erosion of the halo that these stocks had, and I can't believe I just used Josh's word to describe that.
就像这些股票之前凭借充沛的自由现金流所拥有那种‘刀枪不入’的无敌气场一样。
But, like, the invincibility cape that these stocks had with all of their gushing free cash flow.
最后，市场好像在说，嘿。
And finally, the market is saying, hey.
等一下。
Wait a minute.
你看，你几乎把自由现金流都投在资本支出了。
Like, you're spending pretty much all of your free cash flow on CapEx.
轻资产模式挺好的。
Asset light was good.
重资产模式就不太妙了。
Asset heavy, not so good.
对。
Yeah.
如果这些公司因为这么做而自我颠覆了呢？
What if these companies disrupted they literally disrupted themselves by doing this.
上周凯·吴的播客里提到过‘无形经济’，他说这些公司正在承担一个巨大的风险。
The was on Kai Wu's podcast last week, the intangible economy, and he was talking about the fact that these companies this is a huge, huge risk that they're taking.
他还说，听好了。
And he's he kinda said, listen.
我不确定他们是否真正意识到，自己投身实体世界、建设数据中心、不再轻资产，背后的风险有多大。
I don't know that they really understand the risk they took by doing this, by getting into the more physical world, by building the data centers, and becoming less asset light.
他们的利润率可能会大幅下滑，毕竟他们不再像以前那样‘无形’了。
Maybe their margins go down by a lot, and that the fact that they're not as intangible as they once were.
这风险可不小。
This is a huge risk.
会不会是这些公司自己颠覆了自己，而世界经济的其他部分反而因此受益了？
And is it possible that these companies disrupted themselves and all these other parts of the economy in the world are the beneficiaries of that?
对。
Yeah.
我觉得他们不是没想过这件事的负面后果。
I don't think I don't think that they don't that they didn't think about the downside of it.
我觉得他们很可能花了很多时间在考虑这些风险。
Like, I think that they're probably spending a lot of time thinking about that.
但他们说的都是一样的。
But they all said the same thing.
他们认为，如果不参与，才是真正的生存威胁。
This is an we view we view we view not participating as an existential threat.
我们别无选择。
We have no choice.
除了马克之外。
Except for Mark basically.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
True.
但马克·扎克伯格会想，天哪，糟了。
But is Mark Zuckerberg like, oh, no.
我的股票跌了百分之三十。
My stock's in a 30% drawdown.
我犯了个大错。
I made a giant mistake.
我真的不这么认为。
I really don't think so.
不会的。
No.
因为他根本就是个心理变态。
Because he's a he's a he's a psychopath.
他根本不会去想这些事。
He doesn't, like, think about this stuff.
这些事对他一点影响都没有。
He doesn't doesn't doesn't impact him at all.
对吧？
Right?
这正是创始人兼任CEO且是最大股东的好处。
I mean, well, that's the benefit of of having a founder CEO with biggest shareholder.
他有能力无视短期波动，对错另说。
He has the ability to look past rightly or wrongly.
时间会证明一切。
You know, we'll time will tell.
但就算跌了30%，他手里还剩三千亿美元呢。
But a 30% drawdown, whatever, he's down to his last $300,000,000,000.
几周前我们展示过一张图，比较标普500、罗素2000和七巨头的表现。
So I think a couple weeks ago, we showed the exhibit a chart about the S and P 500 versus the four ninety three versus the Mag seven.
现在罗素2000和标普500、七巨头之间的差距正在拉大。
And this is this lead by the four ninety three is widening over both the S and P and the Mag seven.
说实话，这真让人没想到。
This this is honestly this is very surprising.
确实如此。
It it is.
对。
Yeah.
我们没有一张图能显示这两者之间的差距。
We don't have a chart showing the difference between the two.
比如过去三个月，我猜4.93指数能这么大幅跑赢科技七巨头，已经很久没见过了。
Like, over over a three month period, I'm gonna guess that the $4.93 has not outperformed the Mag seven by this margin in a long, long time.
我完全支持这个趋势。
And I'm here for it.
我觉得这很棒。
I think it's wonderful.
我们录制这段内容时是周二上午9点10分，市场还没开盘，通常这时候纳斯达克100指数盘前已经跌了3%。
So we also got the the we're recording this 09:10AM Tuesday before the market open, which usually when we record, the Nasdaq 100 is down 3% opening premarket.
昨晚韩国股市遭到了重创。
The South Korean stocks got walloped last night.
跌了差不多百分之十。
They're down 10% or something.
这已经是三周内第二次出现这种大幅回调了。
This is the second time in, what, three weeks this has happened where we've had this, like, really big flush.
韩国股市跌得很惨。
South Korea falls a lot.
纳斯达克也跟着跌了。
The Nasdaq falls.
我觉得这是好事，这种进两步退一步的调整，让投资者在这些股票上吃点苦头，提醒一下他们。
Again, I think this is good news that they're having they're having this this pullback, these two steps forward, one step back, and people keep getting slapped on the wrist in these stocks to go, hey.
听好了。
Listen.
如果你想要那些涨得离谱的热门股，就得接受这种涨跌交替的波动。
If you want these high flyers, these stocks that have gone absolutely bananas, you're gonna have to deal with some give and take as pullbacks.
这其实就是市场在咬那双喂养它的手。
This is the market the market, like, biting the hand that feeds you, essentially.
我觉得这仍然是好消息，直到它不再是，而且这种情况发生的频率比你想象的还要高。
I continue to think this is good news until it isn't, and this happens more than more often than not.
但确实如此。
But Yeah.
我后面会在文档里再细说这个，不过咱们先继续往下看。
I'm more I'm more listen more on this later in the doc, but let's keep it moving.
好的。
Okay.
上周晨星发布过一篇文章，讲的是今年涨幅超过100%的股票数量，也就是那些进入三位数涨幅俱乐部的股票。
Morningstar had this piece last week, about the number of stocks that are in the triple digit club, and they looked at, stocks this year that have that are up a 100% or more.
他们说抱歉，
So they said sorry.
是过去十二个月的情况。
In the past twelve months.
他们分析的是晨星大盘中盘指数。
So they looked at the Morningstar large mid market index.
他们说，过去一年里，有42只股票的涨幅翻了一倍以上。
So they said in the past year, 42 stocks have more than doubled.
这比过去十年的平均水平高出两倍多。
That's more than twice the ten year average.
或者单看过去六个月，就有12只股票涨了一倍。
Or in the past six months alone, 12 stocks are up a 100% each.
很明显，很多公司都赶上了人工智能基础设施的热潮。
Obviously, a lot of them are dealing with AI infrastructure boom.
他们把这些数据整理成了图表。
And so they they chart these out.
就是我们一直聊的那些股票，比如闪迪、美光、西部数据、戴尔、英特尔，还有这些公司。
It's the stocks we've been talking about, SanDisk and Micron and Western Digital and Dell and Intel and all these these companies.
但接下来这个还挺有意思的。
But then they this is kinda cool.
他们还分析了过去十二个月里涨幅至少翻倍的股票出现的频率，其中最显著的一次，就是疫情后市场暴跌又强劲反弹的那段时期。
They looked at, like, how often the the rolling twelve month stocks up at least a 100%, And the biggest one here is the rebound from COVID when there was a huge crash, then they came back.
这太疯狂了。
This is crazy.
SK海力士，就在昨天那点小回调之前，今年涨幅已经超过300%了。
SK Hynix, this is before the little, fall yesterday, was up over 300% on the year.
不是过去十二个月，就是今年，才刚到六月份而已。
Not the last twelve months, just this year, six months into the year.
所以，像纳斯达克100这种出现10%甚至3%的回调，其实很正常，毕竟涨得太多了。
So the fact that you have these 10% flushes or these 3% flushes, the Nasdaq 100, that should be expected when you have gains this big.
这正是我们常说的，获利回吐来得更快了。
This is the the thing that you talk about, like, profit taking happens faster.
涨幅这么大，回吐当然应该来得更快。
It should happen faster when you have when you have gains this big.
对。
Mhmm.
但说来好笑，我们这十年来一直说这种事不正常，可偏偏不断有不正常的事变成新常态。
But, obviously, it's funny because we keep I feel like we've been saying all decade this kind of thing isn't normal, but we just keep seeing stuff that's abnormal becoming normal.
这种在短时间内出现的巨大波动。
These, like, these huge moves in in short periods of time.
要是这根本就是新常态呢？
What if that is just the new normal?
这个观点太到位了。
That's such a good point.
根本就没有什么所谓的常态。
There is there is no such thing as normal.
每个市场环境都不太一样。
Everything is every market environment is a little bit different.
那什么才算正常？
I mean, what's normal?
当你说到这不正常的时候，人们脑子里想到的正常时期到底是哪个时候？
Like, when we when you say this isn't normal, where do people's heads go to a normal time in the market?
2015年？
2015?
我的意思是，这到底算什么？
I mean, what are they seriously.
整个21世纪，根本就没什么所谓的正常市场环境，如果你非得这么叫的话。
This this this century, there hasn't been one, like, normal environment, you wanna call it that.
前几天《华尔街日报》发过一张图，显示从战争开始到上个周五，黄金、石油和半导体指数的变化情况。
It so The Wall Street Journal had this chart the other day showing change from the start of the war through last Friday, and it's gold, oil, and the semiconductor index.
如果你当时说，
And if you woulda said, hey.
中东要开战了，
We're gonna go to war in The Middle East.
油价会在一年内暴涨60%左右，
Oil prices are gonna spike 60% on a year or something.
那你最想持有啥？
What do you wanna own?
但其实不是黄金，因为战争一打响，黄金反而跌了。
And it's not gold because gold is down since the start of the war.
战争开始以来，金价下跌了20%，这有点不可思议。
Gold's down 20% since the start of the war, which is kinda crazy.
油价基本上是涨跌了个来回。
Oil has essentially round tripped almost.
现在油价只比战争开始时高了10%，而半导体指数却涨了70%。
It's now only up 10% from the start of the war, and semiconductors are up 70%.
所以你会想，那该怎么对冲中东战争的风险呢？
So you'd say, well, how do you how do you hedge a war in The Middle East by
半导体。
Semiconductors.
对。
Yeah.
这还用说吗。
Duh.
但我想重点是，其实并没有一种完美的对冲方式能应对所有情况。
But the this is I guess the point here is that there there really are no true perfect hedges for every situation.
我能跟你换一下角色吗？
Can I can I can I be you for a second?
当然可以。
Yes.
最好的对冲方式是分散投资。
The best hedge is a diversified portfolio.
大概就是半导体、石油和黄金吧。
Of semiconductors, oil, and gold, I guess.
没错。
Yeah.
高盛。
Goldman Goldman Sachs.
我觉得马德·法伯在他的‘创意农场’邮件里提过这个，如果还没订的话，挺值得一看的。
I think Mad Faber had this one in his idea farm email, and if people don't have that, it's pretty good.
他每周都会整理出一批高质量的深度研究报告，发给订阅者和他的团队。
He he he puts he, pulls together all the best, like, long form research pieces and sends them out once a week, and his team.
高盛还有一份关于估值的图表特别有意思，值得聊聊。
And Goldman Sachs had this had some really interesting charts on valuation that that were worth talking about.
他们把CAPE比率和股票的净资产收益率做了对比，而ROE一直是巴菲特最看重的指标。
So they compare the cape ratio to the ROE on stocks, which ROE is always Buffett's favorite indicator.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得你我十年前就已经看得很清楚了，当时就说估值应该更高。
And this is something that you and I I I feel like we've we were really ahead of the game on this, I don't know, ten years ago, saying that valuations should be higher.
现在这组数据正好说明，估值确实跟着ROE一起上去了，这很合理。
And this is just showing that valuations have followed ROE higher, which which makes sense.
比如说，
Like, the I
我觉得我们做得很到位的地方，是给市盈率加了点背景分析，因为很多人只看数字，根本没去深挖背后真正推动这个数字的基本面。
think I think what what we did a good job of was putting a little bit of context around the PE because I think a lot of the context, it was just the number with no with no look through to the fundamentals of what was actually driving the number.
有意思的是，你看下一个图，过去四个季度的ROE，尤其是这十年，直接飙升了。
The funny thing is, so if you look at this next one, it's, the trailing four quarter ROE, and it's just shot higher this decade especially.
在我的书里，我写过一段关于巴菲特的观点，他说通货膨胀会影响股票，因为净资产收益率长期来看相对稳定。
And in my book, I wrote a piece about Buffett talked about, how inflation impacts stock because the ROE is relatively stable over time.
他说大概在百分之十二到十四之间。
He said it's, like, 12 to 14%.
这就是典型的净资产收益率。
That's, like, the ROE.
他在七十年代就写过，说净资产收益率长期几乎不会变，现在想想挺有意思，因为实际上科技已经改变了这一点。
And he wrote this in the seventies, And he's like, the ROE really doesn't change over time, which is kinda funny to think about now because actually technology did change it.
对。
Mhmm.
它现在到了一个全新的水平。
It's in this it's in, like, this new level.
最后这个就特别有意思了。
And then finally, this last one is just kind of hilarious.
等等。
Wait.
等等，等等。
Hold hold on.
我可不想跳过这一点。
I I don't wanna leave this.
这太重要了。
This is so important.
净资产收益率曾经是金融领域最具周期性的数据之一。
The return on equity was one of the most cyclical data series in all of finance.
它时而下降，时而上升，反复波动了整整四十五年，直到我们反复讨论的那些公司彻底颠覆了商业的底层逻辑——重新定义了每投入一美元能创造多少回报。
It was down then up, then up then down, and back and forth for forty five years until these companies that we've discussed ad nauseam rewrote the physics laws of business of what we thought was possible, what an an incremental dollar invested can generate.
顺便说一句，现在这种情况正在发生变化。
And by the way, that is changing right now.
对那些超大规模云服务商来说，趋势正在逆转。
It's going the other direction for the hyperscalers.
所以它们股价的走势其实很合理，也非常有意思。
And, you know, so what's happening with their stock price makes sense, and it's really, really interesting.
是的。
Yeah.
你说得对。
You're right.
这已经到了一个全新的层次。
This is like a new level.
但你看看下一个。
But look at look at the next one.
这简直有点好笑。
This is kind of hilarious.
它显示的是半导体行业过去十二个月的净利润率。
It shows a semiconductor trailing twelve month net profit margin.
就在2024年，这个数字还低至25%左右。
In this it was at, I don't know, a low of 25% as recently as 2024.
到2027年，预计会达到49%。
It's projected to be 49% in 2027.
我们上周一播出了和安库尔·克劳福德医生的对话，她是我在半导体全产业链领域听过最有见解的声音之一。
We spoke to doctor Ankur Crawford for a Talk Your Book episode that came out on Monday, And she's one of the best voices, in my opinion, on what's happening in the semispace across all areas of the supply chain.
光看股价，很容易就觉得是泡沫。
And it's really easy to look at the price and say bubble.
我有时候也这样，心里嘀咕：这不太对劲。
And I'm guilty of that too sometimes where I say, oh, boy.
真不看好。
Don't like this.
你当然可以这么想，但你得搞清楚，到底是什么让利润率和盈利暴涨，股价自然也就跟着上去了。
And you can have that opinion, but you really need to have an understanding a little bit of an understanding of what is causing the margins and the earnings to skyrocket and, of course, the stocks following suit.
但问题是，如果其他竞争对手看到49%的净利润率，他们会怎么反应？
But the question is, what is this incentivized if if other competitors see a 49% net profit margin?
这会带来什么变化？
What does that do?
我确实对这个行业了解得还不够。
I don't understand this this industry enough, obviously.
没什么。
Nothing.
我了解得不多，但台积电这种公司不是说建就能建起来的。
My limited understanding is Taiwan Semi is not the type of company that you could just spin up.
这是最高科技的领域。
This is the most high-tech.
你知道那个场景吗？就是《侏罗纪世界》里他们走进实验室那段，你可能没看过。
You know, like, you know the scene oh, you probably didn't see the New Jurassic World where they walk into the I
我没看过。
didn't see it.
那部电影太差了。
It was awful.
哦，这样啊。
Okay.
确实很烂。
It was terrible.
就是开场那段，他们走进去看到霸王龙的那个场景，那个东西叫什么来着？
Where they in the in the opening scene where they walk into the T Rex, the the what do they call that thing?
多明戈斯？多米努斯？我也不记得了，反正就是那个。
The Dominguez, the Dominus, I don't know, whatever it was.
那个假的霸王龙。
The fake
对。
Yeah.
就是他们穿着防护服走进去，结果像一根士力架包装纸掉进去，就把整个系统给搞垮了。
The alien T Rex, where they walk in with those hazmat suits, and everything is like like a a Snickers wrapper got in there and destroyed the the integrity of the unit.
半导体工厂就是这样的地方。
That's what these fabs are like, where they manufacture these semiconductors.
那些地方的技术水平高到离谱，所以才只有一个台积电。
The amount of technology in these places is to an extreme level that there's a reason why there's only one Taiwan Semi.
你不可能随便把产能拉起来就完事。
You can't just bring supply to the market.
所以整个产业链的每个环节都出现了瓶颈。
And that is why there is a bottleneck at almost every area of the chain.
就是供不应求，这没什么好隐瞒的，股价里可能也反映出来了，但你不可能说把产能一下子拉上来就完事。
There is just a shortage, and this is not I'm not saying anything that's not very obvious and and potentially in the price of these stocks, but you can't just bring supply to the market.
你不可能打个响指就把问题解决了。
You can't just snap your fingers and fix the issue.
挺有意思的是，现在我们总觉得科技产品多得用不完，可瓶颈依然存在。
It is interesting when what feels like we live in a world of abundance now when it comes to technology, that there still are bottlenecks.
说得很对。
Great point.
你本来以为这种问题早就该消失了。
You'd think that you'd think they wouldn't exist anymore.
这就跟霍尔木兹海峡为什么至今还是能源运输的瓶颈一样，你说是不是？
It's kinda like, how is the Strait Of Hormuz still a bottleneck for energy?
但事实就是如此。
But it is.
还是有一些环节让我们的扩张难以达到预期的规模。
There's still these these points that make things difficult to expand as much as we want to.
本，我们这份报告里我最喜欢的一个部分就是投资者行为那块。
Ben, one of my favorite categories in our doc is the investor behavior section.
我知道我们老聊这个话题，但我还是会一直提，因为我觉得特别重要。
And I know we're on this beat a lot, but I'm gonna keep doing it because I think it's important.
投资者行为的来源太多了，随便挑几个数据点，你都能说你看，这就是证据。
There's so many different sources of investor behavior and different pieces of data that you could point to and say, see x y z.
是的。
Yeah.
咱们回头再说说你上周提到的擦鞋童的例子。
Back to your shoeshine thing from last week.
不管你想给市场编什么故事，都能在投资者行为的数据里找到支持它的依据。
Whatever narrative you wanna spin about in the market, you could find it in various sources of investor behavior data.
比如，根据Citadel Securities的数据，弗兰克·查帕罗发过一条推文。
So for example, according to Citadel Securities, Frank Chaparro tweeted this.
SpaceX盛大上市那天，该公司记录了有史以来单日零售股票买入量最高的一天，而这家公司负责处理美国约35%的零售交易量。
The day of SpaceX's blockbuster IPO marked the largest single day of net retail stock buying ever recorded by the firm, which handles roughly 35 of US retail trading volume.
事实上，我们平台有史以来最大的十个交易日中，有九个都发生在过去一个月，其中七个甚至集中在六月上半月。
And in fact, nine of the 10 largest trading days ever observed on our platform have occurred in just the last month, including seven during the first half of June alone.
明白了。
Okay.
客观来说，确实围绕SpaceX的IPO出现了一股狂热。
So factually, factually, there is a mania around the SpaceX IPO.
散户交易者正处在一片兴奋之中。
Retail traders are having a moment of euphoria.
他们交易得非常频繁。
They are trading a lot.
非常多。
A lot.
非常多。
A lot.
非常多。
A lot.
那都是看涨的交易吗？
Now is it all bullish trades?
我不清楚。
I don't know.
我不确定有多少资金流入了那只做空SpaceX的两倍杠杆ETF，也就是反向ETF，顺便说一下，它在两天内跌了43%，我觉得。
I don't know how much money went into the two x SpaceX negative leveraged ETF, the inverse, which, by the way, was down 43% in two days, I think.
真是挺有意思，看空的人也疯狂交易。
It does so bullish bears, they're trading their asses off.
今天早上我看日线图的时候，注意到了股票持仓情况。
And then I'm on the daily chart book this morning, and I see equity positioning.
这里写的是综合股票持仓情况。
Now this says consolidated equity positioning.
这是根据持仓指标的z分数计算的加权平均值，数据来自德意志银行的资产配置报告。
It's a weighted average of z scores for positioning indicators, and they're looking at this is from Deutsche Bank asset allocation.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
明白吗？
Okay?
我觉得他们对所关注的投资者群体有相当清晰的判断。
So I think they have, like, a pretty good view on whatever pool of investors they're looking at.
如果你看这个数据，根本看不出任何异常。
And if you're looking at this, you see nothing.
股票持仓处于第42百分位。
Equity positioning sits in the forty second percentile.
离拥挤还远得很，还有很大的上行空间。
Still far from crowded, leaving plenty for further upside.
看到这个，你是不是要问：这跟我刚才说的怎么对得上？
So you see this, you go, how do how do you square this with what I just said?
接着我又看到另一个数据。
And then I see another one.
可选消费板块。
Discretionary.
所以，德意志银行又把主动型和系统型股票配置做了个区分。
So, again, from Deutsche Bank, they break down discretionary versus systematic stock equity positioning.
但这里还是看不到什么异常。
And, again, nothing there.
主动型投资者的股票配置处在第41百分位。
Discretionary investor is forty first percentile.
系统型投资者的股票配置则在第40百分位，也就是资金分配的比例。
Systematic is fortieth percentile exposure to equities in terms of, like, how how allocated you are.
你忍不住挠头，觉得不对劲。
You say you scratch your head.
你心想，等等，这说不通。
You're like, wait.
我真的搞不明白这背后的原因。
I don't I don't get this.
你得给我个合理的解释。
Make it make sense.
好吧。
Alright.
还有另一张来自彭博的图表，显示投机者正在减少股票持仓。
Well, there's another chart from Bloomberg that shows speculators are getting shorter in equities.
这张图展示了标普、纳斯达克、道指和中盘期货的净持仓占未平仓合约比例，而且趋势越来越负了？
This shows the net positioning of the S and P, the Nasdaq, the Dow and Mid Cap futures as a percent of open interest, and it's getting more negative?
他们在市场上越来越做空了？
They're getting more short in the market?
然后你说，明白了。
And then you say, okay.
嗯，有道理。
Okay.
这下就说得通了。
Well, this makes sense.
我们来看主经纪商的持仓数据，也就是对冲基金在半导体板块的多空敞口，简直呈爆炸式增长。
We're looking at the prime book, so hedge fund exposure, gross and net to semiconductors, and it is parabolic.
今年年初还是8%，现在已经涨到22%了。
It has gone from 8% at the beginning of the year to 22% today.
对冲基金全都押注在半导体上了。
So hedge funds are all in on semiconductors.
然后你看散户也在往半导体股票里冲，这是彭博上所有美国半导体ETF的资金流向。
And then you see retail piling to semi stocks, flows for all US semi ETFs listed on Bloomberg.
简直疯狂到没边了。
Completely completely insane.
好吧。
Alright.
所以你看，这里面的信号来源太多了。
So, like, there's just so many different sources in here.
所以你会发现，所有人都超配半导体股。
So you see, yeah, everybody everybody is overweight semis.
这还只是
There is an
DRAM基金上周还只有一百亿美元，现在涨到两百亿了。
The DRAM ETF as it went for we said 10,000,000,000 last week, now 20,000,000,000.
明白了。
Okay.
很明显，明摆着，所有人都在疯狂押注半导体股。
So clearly, clearly, clearly, everyone and their mother is all in on semis.
不管对不对，接下来会不会跌个三成、四成？
Rightly or wrongly, is it gonna fall 30%, 40%?
会不会从这儿直接翻倍？
Is it gonna double from here?
谁说得准呢？
Who knows?
但无论是散户还是专业投资者，对半导体股票的乐观情绪都太过了，简直超出了乐观的范畴。
But there's a lot of there is a lot of optimism, perhaps beyond optimism, with retail behavior and professional behavior in semiconductor stocks.
但其他所有板块，至少从我刚才分享的那些图表来看，我相信还有别的
But everything else, at least according to the charts that I just shared, and I'm sure there's others
凯文·戈登提过凡德里克的一个数据。
Well, Kevin Gordon had one from Vanditrack.
他说，散户单只股票的净买入额已经跌至疫情以来的最低点。
He said retail single stock net buying has fallen to the lowest since COVID.
这说得通吗？
Make it make sense.
我不确定他们是全都转投ETF了，还是别的原因。
I don't know if they just moved all to the the ETFs or what.
所以，我想说的是，我也喜欢这些图表，跟别人一样，但我觉得它们太杂乱了。
So anyway, I guess my my point is I love I love these charts as much as the next guy, but I think they're really noisy.
你更该关注的是数据的来源——不是数据本身，而是谁在给你展示这些数据，他们想灌输什么观点，因为用这些图表来支持任何论点都太容易了。
And I think you should just consider the source, not in terms of, like, the underlying data, but who is showing you the data and what narrative are they trying to spin because it's very easy to make any case based on any of these charts.
是的。
Yeah.
几年前那个劫匪说过什么来着？
What was the the mugger quote from a few years ago?
如果你不觉得困惑，那说明你根本没在关注，大概是这么个意思。
If you're not confused, you're not paying attention, something like that.
那这个说法你怎么看？
How about this one?
我这儿倒有个看法。
I I've got a I've got a theory in this.
嘉信理财之前每个月都会发布一份非常不错的报告。
So Citadel had this really good report that they put up monthly.
他们说，家庭现金占总资产的比例现在已经达到8%。
They said household cash as a percentage of total financial assets is now 8%.
这是自1990年以来的最高水平。
That's higher than it's been at any time since 1990.
明白吧？
Okay?
你觉得为什么家庭现金占总资产的比例，会比过去二十年来的任何时候都高这么多？
What's your theory for why household cash as a percentage of total assets is so much higher than it's been in the last since 1990 is twenty years ago.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
2020年，好吧。
'20 Okay.
这个
The
在我看来，1990年就是二十年前
In my mind, 1990 is always twenty
年前。
years ago.
不对。
No.
1990年那时候，我才十三岁。
1990, that was we were I was that was thirteen years ago.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
在你问我的这前十秒之前，我唯一能想到的就是，很多人在存钱买房。
The the only thing that I could think of without having thought about this prior to the last ten seconds is people are putting money aside to save for a house.
我倒没考虑到这一点。
I didn't think of that one.
我觉得不是。
I'm gonna say no.
我觉得可能是
Here's my
想法。
thought.
好的。
Okay.
我有两个看法。
Here's my I have two theories.
我发了个推文问了下，这又是那种让人想不通的事——现在大家手里的现金比以往都多，怎么还会出现投机狂热呢？
I put this out on Twitter and I asked because this is another one of those you go, how could you how could you have a speculative mania when people have more cash than ever?
我觉得这里头有两方面原因。
And I think there's two things going on here.
一方面，我们刚经历了一段超长时间的金融压抑，利率几乎为零，现在终于能拿到百分之三到四的现金收益了。
One is just we lived through a period that was so long with, like, financial repression and no rates, and now finally, you can get three to 4% cash.
大家对这个挺满意的。
People are okay with that.
我觉得这主要是千禧一代和那些从固定收益产品撤资的人在想：以前利率一涨，债券就把我坑惨了。
I think this is just baby boomers deciding and people trading down from fixed income going, I got nailed in bonds when when the interest rates rose.
我决定多留点现金在手里，而且我快退休了，得备点活钱。
I'm gonna keep more money in cash, and I'm retiring, so I need some money in cash.
所以我觉得，这主要还是个婴儿潮一代的现象。
So I think I think this is mostly a baby boomer phenomenon.
是的
Yeah.
那就是我的看法。
That'd my theory.
我同意这个观点。
I subscribe to that theory.
这说法不错。
That's good.
比我的想法更合理。
That's better than mine.
不过还有另一件让人意外的事。
It's a it's surprise another surprising thing, though.
对吧？
Right?
你想想，等等。
You go, wait.
这是一场投机狂热，人们手里的现金比以往任何时候都多？
This is a speculative mania, and people are holding more cash than ever?
这大概就是充满意外的一集了。
This is the the episode of surprises, I guess.
顺便说一下，SpaceX刚上市的时候，股价大概是1.5美元。
By the way, SpaceX, I believe, debuted at $1.50 when it first opened.
是这样吗？
Is that correct?
我记得是开盘来着。
I think it opened yeah.
差不多就是这个数。
Something like that.
对。
Yep.
今天盘前又回到原点了，算是走了一个来回。
It's back down there at pre market today, so it it round tripped.
那在这种情况下，谁是最后接盘的人呢？
So who who is the bag holder in that scenario then?
不是吧？
No?
因为指数基金其实还没到那个地步，对吧？
Because the index funds, it didn't really it's still getting there, right?
那现在谁才算接盘的人呢？
So who who counts as the bag holder now?
大概是那些在高点买入还死死拿着的人吧。
I guess people that bought at the top and are still holding on.
我不太确定。
I don't know.
明白了。
Alright.
不管怎样，刚才说的是
Anyway, it that was
挺有意思的。
kind fun.
但太空探索技术公司里发生的交易量实在太大了。
But but but the amount of trading happening that happened in SpaceX
是的。
Yeah.
交易量简直疯狂。
The volume was crazy.
交易量真的太高了。
There's just so much volume.
所以，到底有没有人被套住了？
So I mean, is it a is anybody holding the bag?
我不清楚。
I don't know.
人人都在疯狂地买卖。
Everybody's trading their ass off.
有些人赚了钱。
Some people made money.
有些人亏了钱。
Some people lost money.
明白了。
Okay.
这个调查是你放进去的吗？
Did you put this survey in here?
8%的投资者认为人工智能相关股票没有泡沫？
8% of investors believe there isn't a bubble in AI related stocks?
哦，这样啊。
Oh, okay.
这挺有意思的。
This is interesting.
咱们再回到之前和克劳福德医生聊的话题，有件事我想说一下，但得小心措辞。
So sort of getting back to what we spoke with doctor Crawford about and something that I take and I wanna be careful saying this.
情况可能稍微更糟一些，但‘早期’这个词用在这儿或许不太准确。
A little bit of worse where there's still early does early might be the wrong word here.
本，我想表达的是，我特别欣赏现在依然有这么多疑虑。
I I think what I'm trying to say, Ben, is I love that there is still so much doubt.
大家觉得这是泡沫，并不等于它就真的不是泡沫。
Now just because just because everybody thinks that this is a bubble, it that doesn't mean it's not.
明白吗？
Okay?
所以我得特别小心地说。
So I wanna be very careful.
不是说大家都这么想，大家就都错了。
It doesn't mean just because everybody thinks that doesn't mean everybody's wrong.
但确实说明现在怀疑的人非常多。
But it does mean that there is a lot of doubt.
还有很多持怀疑态度的人，觉得这些东西不会突然崩盘。
There are still a lot of people that are nonbelievers that these things aren't gonna come crashing down.
所以AAII情绪调查问了：AI相关股票是不是存在泡沫？
So the AAII sentiment survey, they asked, is there a bubble in AI related stocks?
答案是否定的。
And no.
根本不存在泡沫。
There isn't a bubble.
只有8%的人这么认为。
Only 8%.
不过说实话，我并不完全认同这个说法，因为我觉得在AI产业的某些领域，确实有可能存在泡沫。
Now to be fair, I don't I don't think that I would say that because I think that you could credibly make the case that there is a bubble in some areas of the of the AI industrial complex.
这个调查的提问方式本身也有问题。
This is also the way that this survey is worded.
调查显示，51%的人认为部分AI相关股票估值偏高，但不是全部。
It says 51% of people said some, but not all AI related stocks are too expensively valued.
对。
Yeah.
我大概就是这么想的，我的立场就在这儿。
That's that's probably what I would that's where I would fall.
算了，随便吧。
Anyway, whatever.
过去十二年里，总有人嚷嚷着说有泡沫，但光因为他们一直这么说，并不能证明将来真不会出现泡沫。
The fact that there there has been people who have been calling for a bubble for twelve years in a row, just because those people continue to call bubble doesn't mean there's not going to be a bubble at some point.
对吧？
Right?
你不能拿这个当理由直接否定。
You can't use that as as a like disqualifier.
比如说，
Like, hey
没错。
Correct.
这个人还在说有泡沫。
This person's still calling a bubble.
那就说明它不可能发生。
That means it can't be.
你不能拿这个当排除依据。
You can't use that as a disqualifier.
没错。
Correct.
有个人说得比我好得多。
I've I've somebody worded this better than I'm going to be.
但他们说，通常——当然，这并不否定我们刚才讨论的内容——顶部形成是因为人人都想买入。
But they said usually, and again, not disqualifying what we just spoke about, usually tops happen because everybody's looking to buy.
对吧？
Right?
当再也没有人想买的时候，顶部就出现了。
Like, there's when when there is nobody left to buy, there will be a top.
是的。
Yeah.
但还是有太多人说，这种情况不可能一直持续下去。
But there's still there's still so many people that are just saying, like, this can't continue.
不过你说得对，现在投资者种类太多了，没人再是一条船上的人了。
But to your point about there being so many different investors, there is no, like, everyone in the boat anymore.
这种情况不会再发生了。
It's not gonna that's not gonna happen.
如今的投资者群体太多样化了。
There's too many diverse set of investors today.
根本不存在什么‘所有人’。
There is no everyone.
好吧。
Alright.
我们来谈谈消费吧。
Let's talk about spending.
迈克·西卡迪在推特上转了摩根大通的这条消息。
Mike Sicardi tweeted this from Bank of America.
消费者支出势头异常强劲，五月信用卡总消费额同比上涨5.1%，创下近四年来最高增速。
Consumer spending momentum is remarkably robust with total card spending rising 5.1% year over year in May, the strongest growth in nearly four years.
当然，这背后有原因，比如汽油价格上涨，但近四年来的最大增幅还是值得注意。
Now, of course, there are some reasons for this, gasoline being one of them, but strongest growth in nearly four years.
我有个问题，关于信用卡。
I got a question credit cards.
你是想说，大家现在花钱很猛吧。
You wanna say people are spending.
我们以前聊过这个话题。
We we've talked about this before.
我真想有人给我解释一下。
I need someone to explain this to me.
信用卡的平均利率，根据不同说法，大概在百分之二十到二十五之间。
So the average credit card rate is somewhere in the range of 20 to 25% depending on who you ask.
对吧？
Right?
这利率真的非常高。
It's really, really high.
他们还得给用户发奖励。
They pay out the rewards.
我知道你在商家消费时能拿到2%到3%的返现，但我老收到这种优惠，我觉得我之前发过你一张截图。
I know you spend the two to 3% at the vendors, but I keep getting these I think I sent you a picture of one.
我总收到这种广告，说什么21个月免息之类的。
I keep getting these things for, hey, 0% rate for twenty one months or something.
我们怎么生活在一个信用卡能收25%利息，却又同时提供21个月免息的世界里？
How do we live in a world where the credit cards can charge 25% but also 0% for twenty one months?
因为那25%的利息就是在补贴这些免息活动。
Because the 25 pay for the zero.
这简直让人难以置信，去年我们装修地板时就用了0%分期。
That is insane to me that that so we had we did, like, a 0% financing for our flooring we did last year.
当然，我肯定会选这个。
Of course, I'm gonna take it.
他们给了我十八个月的零利率。
They gave me 0% for eighteen months.
等这个到期了，我又找到一个二十一个月的零利率。
When that runs up, I found a 0% for twenty one.
我想把一部分余额转过去，就这样一直保持零利率。
I'm gonna roll some of it over to that and just keep having the 0% go.
慢慢还，有什么不好呢？
Like, why and slowly pay it off.
我为什么不这么做呢？
Why wouldn't I do that?
我真不敢相信，他们居然真会提供这种选项，
I can't I just can't believe that that's actually an option, that they give
给你零利率。
you 0%.
这简直就是倒过来的罗宾汉，抢穷人的钱去贴补富人。
This is like the reverse Robin Hood, stealing from the poor to give to the rich.
确实如此。
It kind of is.
而且，你申请的时候，他们给的额度根本不高。
And, obviously, you're you're when you apply, they don't give you a huge limit.
你的额度，我想肯定是根据你的信用评分定的。
And, also, your limit, I'm sure, is determined by your credit score.
我不是想炫耀。
Not to brag.
我的信用评分还不错。
Got a good credit score.
那当然。
Of course.
但我真不敢相信，这种事在今天居然还存在。
But I I can't believe that these things exist in today's day and age.
我就想说这一点。
That's all I'm saying.
你当然可以说，而且我确实很在意这个观点，觉得这些利率太苛刻了。
Now you could say that, like and I'm obvious I'm sensitive to this argument that these rates are punitive.
之所以要对次级借款人收取高利率，是有原因的。
There is a reason why subprime borrowers have to be charged a high rate.
因为他们借钱还钱的风险太高了。
It's because they're risky to loan money to.
我知道这话听着有点冷酷，但——
I know that sounds cold, but,
而且这笔债务完全是无抵押的。
like And this is it's completely unsecured debt.
没错。
Right.
一旦违约，没有任何追偿手段。
There's no recourse.
对。
Right.
好的。
Alright.
Bespoke发布的零售销售数据又传来不错的经济消息。
More decent economic news from Bespoke retail sales.
本月报告中，大多数行业都表现强劲，只有两个行业出现负增长。
Breadth in this month's report was remarkably strong with just two sectors showing negative growth.
这可不只是汽油的问题。
So it's not just gasoline.
根据这些结果，我们的扩散指数——衡量过去六个月净扩张行业数量的指标——上升到了近期区间的高位。
Following these results, our diffusion index, which measures the six month average net number of sectors expanding, ticked up to the high end of its recent range.
好消息。
Good news.
好的。
Alright.
等等。
Wait.
那个扩散指数把我整懵了。
The diffusion thing got me.
我不太清楚。
I don't know.
这术语也太多了吧。
That that's just a lot of terminology.
确实如此。
Don't it.
这玩意儿太专业了，让人担心。
It's worry it's very technical.
你
You
想搞明白。
wanna understand.
如果你
If you
你看看零售销售的那张图，疫情后突然飙升，这部分明显跟通胀有关。
look at one if you look at that chart of retail sales that just had the one it it sprung up from COVID, and, obviously, part of that is inflation.
但这不是全部原因。
It's not everything.
但那确实是另一个完全不在同一个层次上的变化。
But that that was another thing that is on a completely new level.
趋势被彻底打破了，我们现在花得更多，大家都已经适应了。
Like, the trend was broken forever, and we just spend more, and and everyone has just moved on.
再也没回到以前的样子。
It didn't come back.
明白了。
Alright.
等一下。
Hold on.
市场已经开盘了。
The market is open.
我们来看看。
Let's see.
英伟达。
Nvidia.
哦，英伟达跌了3.4%。
Oh, Nvidia is down 3.4%.
我们看一下
Let's take a look at the
纳斯达克下跌了2.5%。
The Nasdaq is down two and a half percent.
不过到收盘时可能还是涨的。
It probably finishes green by the end of the day.
我们刚才说的半导体板块整体情况。
To the point that we were making earlier about everyone in semis.
我是说，整个半导体板块。
I mean, everyone in semis.
是的
Yeah.
接下来会有更大的跌幅空间。
There's gonna be bigger air pockets.
美光科技下跌了11%。
So Micron is down 11%.
桑托斯也下跌了11%。
Santos is down 11%.
美光应该会在盘后公布财报。
Think Micron reports after the bell.
你猜怎么着？
Guess what?
美光可能会继续跌，说实话，我都不确定该说什么了。
Micron could fall Micron can and probably what would I no.
美光可能跌30%。
Micron could fall 30%.
说实话，我每期都这么说，我也知道。
Matter of fact, I keep I know I said this every episode.
就在三月份刚发生过。
It just did in March.
就算美光一周跌30%，整体依然可能处在强劲的上升趋势中。
Micron could fall 30% in a week and still be in an incredibly strong uptrend.
这种洗盘的速度，恐怕跟上涨时一样快。
Like, the shakeouts are probably gonna be just as fast as the rise.
所以啊，没有付出就没有回报，我之前就说过。
So no pay, no gain, as I said.
没错。
Exactly.
好的。
Alright.
再来看一个来自Stripe经济学的有趣观点。
Cool one from Stripe Stripe Economics here.
他们关注新业务申请。
They look at new business applications.
我觉得这可能是我常提到的一点。
I think this is one of the things I think
等一下。
Wait.
你为啥跳过这一段？
Why we why we why'd you skip that?
有钱人的抱怨最让人头疼。
Rich people complain are the worst.
我觉得这是个不错的话题。
I think it's a good topic.
哦，你想聊这个？
Oh, you wanna do that?
行吧。
Okay.
是的。
Yeah.
这些人真的是最糟糕的。
I'm I am these these are the absolute worst.
对。
Yeah.
这段内容来自《华尔街日报》。
So this is from The Wall Street Journal.
明白。
Okay.
美国人的经济焦虑正在向更高收入群体蔓延，他们向人们提出了一系列问题。
America's economic anxiety is rising up the income ladder, and they ask people a set of questions.
你认为美国的政治和经济体系是针对像我这样的人的吗？
Do you think America's political and economic systems are stacked against people like me?
2017年，上层中产阶级中有29%的人回答了‘是’。
And the upper middle class people in 2017 said 29% said yes.
到了2026年，有65%的人回答‘是’。
In 2026, 65% of people said yes.
而且，你们是否对下一代的生活会比自己这一代更好缺乏信心？
And, also, do you lack confidence that their life will be better for your children than it is for your theirs?
2019年的时候，有64%的人表示肯定。
In 2019, it was 64% said yes.
到了2026年，86%的人表示，他们不相信孩子的生活会比自己更好。
2026, 86% said they lack confidence that their children would have a better life than theirs.
说系统不公平？别开玩笑了。
Stacked against is give me a fucking break.
没错。
Yes.
对。
Yes.
我知道住在高消费地区确实很难，长岛就是其中一个例子。
I I know I know that it's hard to live in it's hard to live in expensive areas, Long Island being one of them.
我理解你的感受。
I am sympathetic to that.
但说你被系统针对？
But stacked against you?
得了吧。
Come on.
我们这些人其实知道，系统确实对某些群体不公平。
We are people who actually have the system is stacked against some certain people.
对。
Yes.
但我们不属于那类人。
We are not one of them.
属于中上阶层。
Upper middle class.
没错。
Yes.
就是那些有钱人，这真是让我特别烦。
Just that rich people this is such a big pet peeve of mine.
有钱人却装成中产，或者抱怨自己的生活，可还有很多人真正在经历苦难，他们的抱怨才值得被听见。
Rich people who pretend or say they're middle class or complain about their lives when there's other people who have actual complaints that are worth telling.
我实在受不了这种事。
I hate it.
行吧。
Alright.
这才是美国真正了不起的地方。
This is what makes America great.
新企业的申请数量。
New business applications.
回想我们以前聊的那些，比如新冠疫情会带来什么影响，
This is something we never could have possibly foreseen when we Remember all the conversations we had, like, what is COVID going to do?
当时谁能想到，它会彻底改变什么呢？
Like, what is the thing that it's going to change forever?
当时我们做了很多预测，但大部分都错了。
And we had all the and there was a lot of wrong predictions.
也有少数猜对了。
There was some right.
谁也没想到，企业注册申请会突然激增这么多。
This is something no one ever would have predicted, that you'd see this huge increase in business applications.
那时候其实是有原因的。
There's a reason for it back then.
所以厄尼·泰德斯基和他在Stripe的团队对此很担心。
So Ernie Tedeschi and team at Stripe were worried about this.
他们说，PPP计划有个小企业贷款项目，只要有个EIN，其他条件几乎没什么要求。
They said, the PPP program, there was a small business loan program that required an EIN and little else for eligibility.
于是就出现了这些贷款，情况简直就像——
So you got, like, these these loans, and it it it was like, hey.
你猜怎么着？
Guess what?
如果我们让普通人更容易创业，他们就会去创业。
If we make it easier for people to start businesses, they're going to start businesses.
你看到了创业数量的大幅增长，而且这股势头持续了下来，现在又出现了新的加速。
And you saw this huge rise in business formation, but then it stuck, and now you're seeing another acceleration.
Stripe 的团队说，现在并没有任何政策在推动这个趋势。
And the team at Stripe is saying, there is no program now that's causing this.
那到底是什么在推动它呢？
What's causing it?
人工智能。
AI.
他们分析指出，现在因为有了人工智能，创业变得容易多了。
And so they they break it down by saying, it's easier for people to start businesses now because of AI.
我觉得这确实是一件非常好的事，正在发生积极的变化。
And I think this is this is actually a very good this is a great thing that's happening.
你看看这些数据吧。
And, look, look at the numbers.
从2005年到2018年左右，这些数字一直没什么变化。
From 2005 to 2018 or so, these numbers were stuck.
几乎纹丝不动。
They they didn't move much at all.
而现在，由于门槛降低，申请创业的人数几乎翻了一倍多。
And now we've essentially seen more than a doubling of business applications of people starting their own businesses because it's easier.
是的。
Yeah.
国家正在发生的事，确实有很多值得高兴的地方。
There is a lot to celebrate about what's happening in the country.
但外界的负面情绪太浓，很容易让人忽略这些积极面。
It's very, very easy to lose sight of that given all of the negativity.
很多负面情绪确实是真实的。
And a lot of the negativity is genuine.
我并不是想掩盖这些问题。
I'm not trying to sweep the negativity under the rug.
确实有很多糟糕透顶的事正在困扰很多人，但同样也有很多积极的好事在发生。
There's a lot of a lot of shitty terrible things happening to a lot of people, but there's so much good stuff happening too.
不过你想想，要有多不切实际，才敢自己创业啊。
Just think about how delusional you have to be to start your own business though.
这事儿真的特别特别难。
It's really, really hard.
简直有点疯了。
It's pretty psychotic.
但这个国家还是有这么多人选择创业，因为大家总觉得——虽然调查说情况在变糟，但如果你不觉得这事能成，不抱点乐观，谁会去干这个呢？
But so many people do it in this country because like there there's this idea that, yes, these surveys talk about things getting worse, but you don't start a business if you don't think that it's going to work or that you're not some somehow optimistic.
我觉得这样挺好。
I think that's Alright.
咱们换个话题吧，转向阴暗面。
Let's let's let's pivot let's pivot to the dark.
今天正能量也说得够多了。
It's enough positivity for one day.
我说得对吧？
Am I right?
好吧。
Okay.
蒂姆·费里斯写了一篇文章，说他的书销量暴跌了。
So Tim Ferriss wrote a a post describing that his book's sales are crashing.
蒂姆·费里斯大概是当代自助领域的王者了，这种类型的人。
Now Tim Ferriss is probably the modern day king of the self the self help, like the the the
等等。
Wait.
这不算黑暗。
This is not dark.
我要明确说一句，这反而是好事。
I think I'm I'm gonna go on record and say this is a good thing.
对。
Yeah.
不是。
No.
我只是觉得，这个‘不’不是那个意思。
I'm I'm just like, the the no.
我完全同意。
I totally agree.
我只是想说，从自我提升转向末日论的这种转变。
I'm just saying the transition to AI, doomerism.
我觉得这是件好事。
I think this is a great thing.
但他那套完全是那种自我提升黑客式的书。
But he's all like the the the the self help hacker book.
对吧？
Right?
比如《四小时工作周》《四小时身体》，还有各种‘四小时’系列。
Like, four hour work week, the four hour body, the four this, the that.
他 basically 说
He basically said
他那本《四小时身体》里提到的一些内容，我到现在还在用。
There that there still is stuff that he talked about in the four hour body that I do today still.
比如里面有些锻炼方法，书挺厚的，但大部分对我都没用。
Like, there's there's some workout stuff in there that he laid out that it's it's like, it's a really big book, and most of it was useless to me.
不过还是有一些东西，我到现在还在用，就是那本《四小时身体》里的。
But there was some stuff that I still use to this day from his book, from that For Our Body book.
他的作品集在2026年的纸质书销量，会比2022年减少大约80%。
So his catalog will sell roughly 80% fewer print copies in 2026 than it did in 2022.
当然，自助类书籍正被Claude取代，因为你可以问它任何问题，我觉得这挺好。
And, of course, the self help books are being displaced by Claude because you could ask him anything, and I think that's great.
但本，你对这事怎么看？
But, Ben, what's your take on this?
不。
No.
我觉得自助类书籍对95%的人来说根本没用。
I that the self help genre, I think it's useless to 95% of people.
你读完一本自助书，会觉得：没错，我要改变人生了。
I think you read one of these self help books and you go, yes.
但接着你就啥也不干了。
I'm going to change my life, and then you don't do anything.
它只是给你一时的激励。
It just it gives you this initial pop.
所以我对这个看法很矛盾，因为……
And so I have I have very mixed thoughts on this because
但你确定这全是AI带来的影响吗？
Are sure, though, that this is all AI related?
这会不会是把相关性当成了因果性？
Is it is this too much of a causation thing?
或者，会不会只是因为……
Or is this too what if this is just what
如果这只是
if this is
一种蒂姆·费里斯式的东西吗？
just a Tim Ferriss thing?
我我
I I
我不这么认为。
don't like No.
我们就假设80%是AI相关的吧。
Let's just say it's eight let's just say it's 80% AI.
也许蒂姆·费里斯已经过时了。
Maybe Tim Ferriss has run his course.
他的书出版很久很久了。
His his book's been out for a long, long time.
是的。
Yeah.
这就是关键所在。
That's the thing.
这个还挺，这个挺...
This is pretty this is pretty
我本来没想到会这样，但仔细想想确实有道理。
I wouldn't I wouldn't have thought this, but it does make sense.
我觉得自助类内容，有点像人们对宗教的看法。
I think self help is sort of like how some people feel about religion.
有些人会觉得宗教不好，理由无非是这些、那些，说它毫无道理，等等。
Some people, like, say religion is is is bad for reasons x, y, and z, and it's it's it's nonsense and blah blah.
好吧。
Okay.
行吧。
Fine.
你可能就是这么想的。
You might feel that way.
但确实有很多人从中学到了很多东西。
But there are genuinely people that get a lot out of it.
不管怎样，它给人带来了希望。
Anyway, it gives people hope.
没错。
Right.
明白了。
Okay.
所以我觉得自助类书籍也是一样。
So I think self help is the same.
确实如此。
That's true.
但当你第一次读自助书的时候，你会觉得特别有干劲，心想：我要改变世界，至少也要改变自己。
But you but you when you read your first self help book, you you are sort of energized and charged and like, I'm going to change the world or change myself at least.
不过大多数时候，这些都没发生。
Most of the time, it doesn't happen.
我觉得读过这些书的人很多
I think the number People I read it
很多人对自助书籍的作者感到不满。
are mad people are mad at the self help creators.
也不是真的生气，就是觉得这人是个骗子。
Not mad, but it's like, oh, person's a charlatan.
对吧？
Right?
他们靠告诉别人该怎么做赚得盆满钵满。
They're getting rich by telling people other than what to do.
我觉得这通常是大家的主要抱怨。
I think that's generally the complaint.
其实本不该有这么多自助书籍，但确实有时候，表达方式需要调整一下。
There there shouldn't need to there shouldn't need to be more self help books, but it's true that sometimes the way the message is crafted just needs to be changed.
有些人就是从这些内容里得到安慰，所以我也不愿太苛责。
And some sometimes people people find comfort in that stuff, so I don't wanna be too big of a hater.
不对。
No.
不对。
No.
不对。
No.
听我说。
Listen.
有个人跟我说，嘿，本。
Some there was someone who said, like, hey, Ben.
你新书里没什么新东西。
There's nothing new in your new book.
我当时就想，嗯，很久以前就有人跟我说过。
And I I thought, like, well, yeah, my someone told me a long time ago.
很久以前就有人跟我说过，嘿。
Someone told me a long time ago, hey.
听好了。
Listen.
没人星期天去教堂是盼着听一条新的第十一条诫命的。
No one goes to church on Sunday expecting to hear an eleventh commandment.
有时候你只需要
Sometimes you just need
砰。
Boom.
爱
Love
它。
it.
有时候你就是需要被提醒一下，你本来就足够好了，所以自助类书籍永远都会有市场。但我得说，这种结果我真没料到。
Sometimes you just need to be reinforced in that that you're so so that's why self help books will always but I I gotta say, this is this is not one of those outcomes I would have predicted.
这件事居然发生了，还挺有意思的。
It's it's it's pretty interesting that this is happening.
是的。
Yeah.
所以把这个也加到那长长的清单里吧。
So add this to the mile long
但你不觉得抱歉吗？
But don't you think sorry.
还有一件事。
One more thing.
你不觉得播客也是其中一部分吗？
Don't you think podcasts are also part of it too?
我觉得播客已经取代了书籍，人们总说天哪。
I think podcasts have replaced books for people always say, like, oh my gosh.
没人读书了。
No one's reading anymore.
我觉得播客已经取代了书籍，成为很大一部分人的选择。
I think podcasts have replaced book for a wide for a big segment of the population.
当然。
Of course.
我干嘛要读蒂姆·费里斯的书，直接听他的播客不就行了吗？
Why would I wanna read Tim Ferriss' books when I could listen to his podcast?
我猜这也是原因之一。
I'm sure that's part of it too.
是的。
Yeah.
更省事。
It's easier.
行了。
Alright.
把这个也加到那长长的清单里吧，以后我们回看时可能会说：这怎么可能没看出来？
So add this to the mile long list of things that we might look back on and say, what in the world?
当时怎么就没明显看出 x 一定会发生呢？
How was this not more clear that x was going to happen?
这是Shareesh发的一条推文。
Here's a tweet from Shareesh.
现在有人把数据中心建在海里了。
They are putting data centers in the ocean now.
一家来自波特兰的初创公司Panta Lassa，刚融了1.4亿美元。
Panta Lassa, a startup from Portland, just raised a $140,000,000.
他们打造了漂浮在海上的平台，用来运行人工智能。
They build floating platforms that sit out at sea and run AI.
根本不需要电网。
No power grid needed.
海浪的运动就能产生全部电力。
The ocean's waves make all the electricity.
海水还能给芯片降温。
The seawater keeps the chips cool.
巨大的浮球随着海浪上下起伏。
Big floating balls bob up and down the waves.
这种运动就能发电。
That that motion makes power.
电力用来驱动里面的AI芯片。
The power runs the AI chips inside.
得到了Teal公司的支持。
Backed by Teal.
这家公司现在的估值接近十亿美元。
Company now worth almost a billion dollars.
好吧。
Alright.
为什么不呢？
Why not?
我的意思，我懂什么啊。
I mean, what do I know?
当然。
Sure.
这画面看起来就像《星球大战》里的场景。
It looks like a scene the picture looks like a scene from a Star Wars movie.
没错。
Sure.
为什么不呢？
Why not?
这挺讽刺的，因为数据中心其实面临很多阻力，现在越来越多的城市和地方政府都说：我们不想要这种设施。
It is funny because there's obviously roadblocks to data centers, and now that that's a lot of municipalities and cities are saying, no, we don't want them here.
显然，这些大型云服务商迫切需要部署这些设施，所以他们会想尽办法找地方安放。
Obviously, it's so important for these hyperscalers to get this stuff out that they're gonna put them wherever they can.
他们老说要把数据中心建到太空里、海底去，这简直有点疯狂。
They keep talking about putting them in space and in the ocean, and it is kind of insane.
所以，我想我们一直讨论的这种拉扯，部分原因就在于半导体的价格。
So I guess part of the push and pull that we keep talking about is we're looking at the prices of semiconductors.
我们也在看SpaceX的估值，感觉就是这么个感觉。
We're looking at the valuation of SpaceX, and it feels how it feels.
说实话吧。
Let's be honest.
我们每个人都有这种感觉。
We all feel in a certain way.
对吧？
Right?
这感觉就像1999年。
Like, this feels this feels like '99.
现在几点了？
What time is it?
谁知道呢？
Who knows?
我突然想起加文·贝克说过的话，他说：想想我们一直说的算力短缺问题，再想想看，世界上真正用上人工智能的人，可能连3%都不到，甚至更少。
And I'm reminding myself of what Gavin Baker said, where he's like, look at think about all the the shortage of compute that we keep talking about, and just think about the fact that literally less than 3% of the world, maybe even less than that, is actually even using AI.
所以，好吧。
And so, like, alright.
这只是一个极端，另一个极端则是完全相反。
Well, that's one end of the spectrum versus the other.
那你怎么看待从这两个角度来做投资呢？
And how do you think about, like, investing through those two prisms?
这确实挺难的。
And it's hard.
我觉得现在同时看看金融圈和科技圈的观点，有助于保持平衡。
I do think it's helpful to read both finance people and tech people right now to keep yourself balanced.
如果你只盯着其中一个，忽略另一个，那就看不到全貌，观点也会偏颇。
I feel like if you just focus on one and not the other, you're not seeing both sides of this and you're not having a more balanced view.
对吧？
Right?
因为之前我们也说过，金融圈的人普遍对这件事更悲观一些。
Because the again, we've talked about the finance people tend to be lean more bearish on this stuff.
而科技圈的人则更乐观。
The tech people more bullish.
这当然是一种概括，但我认为同时参考这两种观点很重要。
This is a, you know, generalization, but I think it's it's important to read both accounts.
没错。
Alright.
我想保持积极一点。
I wanna keep it positive here.
我再提一下我们的节目《Talking Wealth》。
I wanna give a Talking Wealth plug again.
《Talking Wealth》是我们为理财顾问打造的YouTube频道和播客。
So Talking Wealth is our YouTube channel and podcast for financial advisers.
我们聊的都是财富管理相关的各种话题。
We talk about everything, all things wealth management.
上周你请了Altruist的王Jason来聊他们新推出的AI平台Hazel。
Last week, you had Jason Wang on the show from Altruist talking about their new AI platform called Hazel.
我们确实一直在输出优质内容。
We're putting out we're putting out good stuff.
是的
Yeah.
我一直在想，给它起名叫ChatGPT，可能是历史上最大的失误之一，因为他们根本没给它取个像动词、名词那样的名字。
So it's it's really I was thinking, though, like, calling it ChatGPT was, like, one the big one of the biggest fumbles in history, the fact that they didn't call it a name, like a verb or a noun or name.
迟早得重新命名，因为现在每个新的AI助手都有自己的名字。
That that there there there has to be a rebrand at some point to call it something because every new AI assistant now is a name.
对吧？
Right?
那名字还挺可爱的。
It's kind of a cutesy name.
对吧？
Right?
你得给它起个让人容易记住的名字，你觉得怎么样？
You have to make it something people will How about this?
让人容易记住。
Latch onto.
干脆把GPT去掉算了。
Just drop the GPT.
就叫‘聊天’？
Just chat?
对。
Yeah.
你说得对。
You're right.
这时候Justin Timberlake去哪儿了？
What where's Justin Timberlake when you need him?
这周我跟David Lau聊过了，内容周四就会发布，你信不信。
So I I talked to David Lau this week, and that's gonna come out on Thursday, believe.
他是做保险行业的。
And he he is in the insurance industry.
我就问他，嘿。
And I asked him, like, hey.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。