亿万富翁无处不在（第481集）

所以不管是不是循环，这仍然是一件值得惊叹的事情吧？

So circular or not, it's still something to behold?

这正是我的观点。

That that's my point.

就像，即使我们知道，好吧，这真的令人印象深刻。

Like, is really impressive that this is happening even if we know, okay.

好吧。

Fine.

这不会永远持续下去。

It's not going to last forever.

但年初没有人预料到，今年会看到有史以来最大的盈利增长年份之一。

But there was not anyone coming into the year saying, we're gonna see one of the biggest earnings growth years ever this year.

这不在任何人的清单上。

It wasn't on it wasn't on anyone's list.

它不在那里。

It wasn't there.

没有。

No.

好的，本。

Alright, Ben.

上周你提到了一些关于股息的事情。

Last week, you spoke something about, like, dividend.

标普的整体股息收益率是不是1%？

The the number of was it the the overall dividend yield on the S and P is, 1%?

对。

Yeah.

勉强低于1%。

Barely under 1%.

历史上最低之一。

One of the lowest.

我记得有人纠正我说，在互联网泡沫时期，技术上低了三个基点，但我们现在的股息收益率确实是历史最低的。

I think someone corrected me that it was technically, like, three basis points lower in the .com bubble, but we're there for lowest dividend yields in history.

换个角度看这个问题，我觉得挺有意思的。

So another way to look at this, I thought this was very interesting.

内德·戴维斯研究公司的罗伯·安德森。

Rob Anderson from Ned Davis Research.

标普500指数中，收益率超过十年期国债的股票不到5%，这是自2007年5月以来最少的。

Less than 5% of S and P 500 stocks yield more than the ten year treasury, the fewest since May 2007.

好的。

Alright.

2007年5月，那可不是投资的好时机。

May 2007, not the greatest time to invest.

不过，抛开那句话不谈，2000年金融危机后的时期很特别，因为所有股票都暴跌，股息收益率被推高了。

But that sentence aside, the 2000 the post GFC period was unusual because all of these stocks got crushed and the dividend yields got pushed higher.

但看看1980年到2000年。

But look at look at 1980 through 2000.

那看起来和现在一样。

It looks the same as it does today.

这并非历史上的异常现象。

This is this is not an aberration of history.

可以说，金融危机后的那段时期才是异常的。

The post GFC period was abnormal, you could say.

嗯，而且那时候利率显然要高得多。

Well, also interest rates were much higher back then, obviously.

哦，你说得对。

Oh, you're right.

嗯，是的，那那

Well, yeah, that that

这是其中的一部分，但现在的利率也高得多。

is That's that's part of it, but still rates are much higher today too.

对。

Yeah.

而且这一点，你说得对。

And this you're right.

这不像是什么信号，说天哪，这太疯狂了。

This this is not like some signal that, oh my gosh, this is crazy.

除非政府债券收益率大幅下降，否则这就是新常态。

Unless it unless government bond yields come way down, this is the new normal.

比如，公司不再分红，因为那样做不太划算了。

Like, companies don't pay out dividends anymore because it doesn't make as much sense.

所以对我来说，我不一定在看，嗯，也许我有点。

So to me, I'm not necessarily looking at well, maybe I'm a little bit.

股票，我是说，这只是事实。

Stocks are I mean, this is just a fact.

在其他条件相同的情况下，股票相对于债券的吸引力已经很久没有这么低了，这是好消息。

Stocks are, all else equal, relatively less attractive compared to bonds than they have been for a long time, which is awesome news.

人们不是曾经抱怨80/20取代了60/40，把大家推向风险曲线更远端吗？

Weren't people upset that 8020 was the new 6040, that people were being pushed further out on the risk curve?

那已经结束了。

That's over.

挺好的。

It's good.

嘿，你猜怎么着？

Hey, guess what?

我有个小想法，本来不确定要不要跟你或听众分享，但周末我在脑子里想了想，Ben，我问自己，我是不是该在我的401k里配置一些债券？

I had a little thought that I wasn't sure if I was gonna share with you or the audience, but inside my brain over the weekend, Ben, I thought to myself, should I own some bonds in my four zero one k?

很明显，我一直以来都是100%股票，因为作为长期风险承担者，拥有超长投资期限，就该这么做。

I so obviously, I've been a 100% stock since forever because that's what you do as a long term risk taker with a long, long term horizon.

持有股票。

You own stocks.

但这个念头确实在我脑海里闪过。

But the thought did cross my brain.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我是不是该考虑80/20的配置？

Should I should I be eighty twenty?

而且因为，你是有回报的。

And then if if because a, you're getting paid.

债券里是有回报的。

There's there's reward in the in the bonds.

如果未来股市大幅回调，那我就可以通过转回来利用这个机会。

And if there is a big stock market pullback over the future, well, now I could take advantage of it by shifting back.

如果没有，我也不在乎。

And if there's not, I don't care.

那也很好。

It's it's still great.

我上周问了The Compound。

I asked The Compound last week.

有一个中年男人。

There was a middle aged guy.

我想大概四十五岁左右。

I think it was mid forties.

他说，听着。

He said, listen.

我老老实实地经历了互联网泡沫破裂和2008年金融危机，我变成了一个机器。

I dutifully sat through the .com bubble blowing up and the two thousand eight financial crisis, and I became a machine.

我坚持定投。

I dollar cost averaged.

他说，但现在如果我看到市场大幅波动，我损失的比我的工资还多。

He said, but now if I see a big swing in the market, I'm losing, like, more than my salary in that situation.

因为我钱多了，所以我变得敏感了。

I'm getting because I have way more money.

所以他说，帮我想想中年投资的心态。

So he's like, help me try to come up with a psychology of investing in middle age.

我觉得你想搞清楚的是，比如，是不是把一些钱撤出来不算择时，而是，你知道，我在这里更好地管理风险，因为我现在的收益远超股票没涨那么好的情况，也许我不应该贪心，见好就收。

And I think what you're trying to figure out is like, is it like is taking some money off the table not market timing, but is it is it you know, I'm managing risk a little bit better here because I'm so far ahead of where I would have been if stock if the stocks hadn't done so well that maybe, like, I should I shouldn't look the gift horse in the mouth here.

我应该把5%投到债券里。

I should take the 5% for bonds.

对。

Yeah.

所以这不是在预测股市走势。

So it's not making a stock market call.

只是谨慎行事而已。

It's just being being, prudent.

现在有个替代方案，而且回报相当不错。

There's an alternative, and it's paying you pretty damn well.

没错。

Right.

但大多数投资者仍然不在意。

And most investors still don't don't care.

美国银行有一张这样的图表。

Now the Bank of America had this chart.

这张图在社交媒体上流传了一阵子。

This one was kinda flying around in social media a little bit.

负的长期回报是很好的入场点。

Negative long run returns are great entry points.

所以他们看上一次长期国债的情况，比如15年，然后计算滚动十年年化回报率，当它们是负的时候。

So they look at the last time you had long term treasuries, so they say 15, and they did the rolling ten year annualized returns when they were lower negative.

图表显示，1959年12月是债券十年回报率名义上为负的最后一次。

And it was saying in December 1959 is the last time that these ten year returns for bonds were negative on a nominal basis.

1981年9月也接近了。

And they got close in September 1981.

如果算上通胀，那些情况会更糟得多。

And those would have been way, way worse if you would have included inflation.

现在图表显示，这些是最低的。

Now it's saying, like, these are the lowest ones ever.

这是不是好的买入机会？

Is this a good buying opportunity?

有点好笑的是，在这张图上，我不想太较真，但1981年显然是历史上最大的债券买入机会。

It's kind of funny because on this chart, I hate to be the a stickler here, 1981 was obviously the greatest buy bond buying opportunity in history.

在八十年代初，买债券的机会是前所未有的好。

There will never be a better time to buy bonds than there was in the early nineteen eighties.

我不知道要发生什么才能让那种情况重现。

I don't know what would have to happen for that to come back again.

我不知道人工智能怎么会导致20%的短期威胁利率之类的。

I don't know how AI would cause 20% short term threat rates or whatever.

那种情况再也不会发生了。

It's never happening again.

1959年买债券其实是个糟糕的时机，因为高通胀即将来临。

1959 was kind of a terrible time to buy bonds because high inflation was coming.

在六十年代，债券的实际回报是负的1%，因为通胀高得多。

In the nineteen sixties, you got negative 1% real real returns in in bonds because inflation was so much higher.

看看这张图表。

Get this chart.

我特别喜欢这张图表。

I love this chart.

我明白，我明白那个

Understand what I understand what the

不过，人们就是喜欢这样的图表。

show People like charts like this, though.

对，没错。

Like Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

现在的情况就跟那时候很像，我觉得大家就喜欢这种形式。

Right now is just like back then, and I think people love that format.

确实如此。

They do.

但这并不是说，现在就是债券的百年一遇的买入良机。

But this this is not I don't I wouldn't say this is not a pound the table generational buying opportunity in bonds.

这是二十年来买入债券的最佳时机。

This is a best buying opportunity for bonds in twenty years.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

I do.

我是说

Mean

对。

Yeah.

而且不是一回事。

And not the same thing.

没错。

Right.

你想不想聊聊《富爸爸穷爸爸》？

Do you wanna talk about Rich Dad Poor Dad or not?

对。

Yeah.

那就开始吧。

Let's do it.

这家伙就是个……嗯，一直都很糟糕。

This this guy is just an Well, all time bad

我收到一百万人给我发这个，因为我写过一些关于《富爸爸穷爸爸》那家伙的博客文章，我管他叫富爸爸穷读者。

got a I got a million people sending me this because I've I wrote some blog posts about Rich Dad Poor Dad guy, and I I call him rich dad poor readers.

还有一篇《纽约时报》或《纽约邮报》的报道说，罗伯特·清崎负债12亿美元。

And there was a New York Times New York Post story saying Robert Kiyosaki is $1,200,000,000 in debt.

我其实读了标题下面的内容。

I I I actually read beyond the headline.

我觉得大多数人没读。

I don't I don't think most people did.

没有你想的那么糟。

It's not as bad as you think.

他当时就在炫耀这件事。

Like, he was bragging about this.

我觉得，如果有人炫耀自己欠那么多债，那才说明他真的很有钱。

And I guess this is the way that you know that someone is really rich if they brag about being in debt that much.

但后来我猜他的前妻说，你知道吗？

But then I guess his his ex wife said, you know what?

这大概就是他的房地产持有之类的。

This is like his real estate holdings or something.

他个人并没有欠12亿美元的债。

This he's not 1,200,000,000 personally in debt.

实际数字小得多，他是在试图夸大自己的……

It's way, way smaller, and he's like trying to inflate his

所以他是在炫耀，说，看，我这么有钱，能欠这么多？

So is he flexing, saying like, look, I'm so rich that I have the ability to take on this much?

是的。

Yes.

他这是在炫耀。

This is he's trying to flex.

对。

Yeah.

而且我觉得很多人会说，等等，这家伙一直反对债务和人们负债，显然他是个伪君子。

And I think a lot of people said, wait a minute, this guy is always reeled against debt in the system and people taking on debt, and he's a hypocrite obviously.

我的金融笑话是，听着，这家伙终于说到做到了。

And my finance joke here was, listen, the guy is finally putting his money where his mouth is.

他在为恶性通货膨胀做准备。

He's preparing for hyperinflation.

如果恶性通货膨胀要来了，你就想要那些债务。

If hyperinflation is coming, you want all that debt.

明白。

Mhmm.

所以我觉得他，总之，我听着呢。

So I think he's, anyway, I I was listen.

我读过《富爸爸穷爸爸》这本书。

I read the book Rich Dad Poor Dad.

在我说的十大投资理财必读书单里，它总是榜上有名。

It was on all the top when I said like 10 best investing personal finance books to read, it was always there.

但我一直觉得它没什么道理。

I it never made sense to me.

我从来就没搞懂过。

I never I never got it.

我从来没觉得，哦，对。

I never I was like, oh, yes.

我知道有些人会恍然大悟。

I know some people, like, the light bulb goes off.

但那本书对我来说一直没什么触动。

That one to me never did it for me.

我喜欢那本书。

I liked it.

我记不清它讲了什么观点了，但是

I don't have any don't remember any of the points it made, but

对。

Yeah.

我觉得整个故事就像编出来的一样，从头到尾都是。

I I guess the the whole, like, it felt like a made up story to me the whole time.

所以我就觉得，我也不知道。

So I'm like, I don't I don't know.

这部分打动不了我。

That part doesn't do it for me.

好吧。

Alright.

我在找一些东西。

I was looking for something.

我觉得我前几天写了一篇博客，关于你和我聊到的Z世代，他们还会买房吗？

I I think I wrote a blog post the other day about you and I were talking about Gen Z, will they ever buy homes?

我在2014年左右写过一篇关于千禧一代的文章，说我觉得千禧一代会没事的。

And I wrote a piece in like 2014 about millennials saying, hey, I think millennials are gonna be fine.

他们会买房的，因为当时就像现在一样，人们都在说千禧一代永远不会买房。

They're gonna buy homes because people were saying at the same time, just like now, millennials are never gonna buy a house.

他们看到父母被打击得很惨。

They saw their parents get wrecked.

失业率很糟糕。

Unemployment is terrible.

当时有很多这样的说法，说千禧一代永远不会买房。

There was all these stories saying millennials are never going by.

所以我在找这篇文章，然后找到了我2016年写的一篇。

So I was looking for this thing and I found a story I wrote in 2016.

你和我聊过很多关于低回报的事情。

You and you've talked a lot about the low return thing.

所以这是彭博社2016年的一篇文章。

So this is an article from Bloomberg in 2016.

三十岁突然变得可怕多了。

Turning 30 just got a lot scarier.

投资回报的崩溃意味着，现在这个年纪的人要比上一代人多工作七年，或者储蓄几乎两倍，才能攒下同样的养老钱。

Coming collapse in investment returns means that people that age today will have to work seven years longer or save almost twice as much to end up with the same nest egg as those of a roughly generation ago.

这是麦肯锡公司在一份新报告里说的。

So says McKinsey and Company in a new report.

他们说，过去三十年的黄金时代已经结束了。

And they said the golden age of the last thirty years is gone.

股市里那种超常的通胀调整后的风险回报不会再有了。

Exceptional inflation adjusted risk returns in the stock market won't be repeated.

对。

Okay.

这是2016年的事。

This is 2016.

他们有一张图表，显示的是你没法……

They had this chart they show like this is you can't.

从那以后，先锋整体股市指数基金VTI每年上涨15%，总计涨幅接近325%。

Since then, the s the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTI, is up 15% per year, almost 325% in total.

你知道，好吧。

You know, alright.

有两点。

Two points.

你读的时候，我在想现在的媒体真是负面得离谱。

As you're reading it, I'm thinking it's so insane that the media is so negative today.

然后我很快提醒自己，其实一直是这样。

And then I quickly reminded myself, it's always been this way.

对。

Mhmm.

一直都有耸人听闻的标题。

There's always been sensational headlines.

我说一直，意思是，比如在1910年代。

And when I say always, I mean, like, in the nineteen tens.

这不是2026年才发生的事。

This is not a 2026 story.

一直以来都是这样。

It has literally always been this way.

我就觉得，正经记者居然能写出这种东西，真是不可思议。

And I thought, like, it's so crazy that this is allowed to be printed by legitimate journalists.

可信的。

Credible.

彭博社。

Bloomberg.

投资回报即将崩溃。

A coming collapse in investment returns.

投资回报即将崩溃。

A coming collapse in investment returns.

普通听众，谁知道呢？

And the average listener, what does what does what does anybody know?

天哪。

Oh my god.

麦肯锡说早在2016年，这看起来非常真实。

McKinsey says back in 2016, this this seemed very real.

那时候这也算是大家的共识。

It was kind of collective wisdom at the time too.

很多其他人也这么说。

A lot of other people were saying this.

当然，确实是这样。

Of course, was.

好吧。

Alright.

我的主要观点是，我周末在想这个，跟这个无关。

My main point is, and I was thinking about this this weekend, unrelated to this.

所以周末的时候，硅谷有个关于一家叫Instinct的公司的故事，我直到昨天才听说。

So so over the weekend, there was a story in in Silicon Valley about a company called Instinct, which I hadn't heard of until yesterday.

你知道这个故事吗，Ben？

You know about this story, Ben?

我显然完全不知道。

I'm apparently oblivious.

好的。

Okay.

所以这个周末，Instinct是一家AI代理公司，这类公司现在非常火。

So over the weekend, Instinct is an AI agent company, and these things are all the rage.

他们正在以数十亿美元的估值融资。

They're raising at billion multibillion dollar valuations.

有好几家这样的公司。

There's a there's a couple of them.

人们用他们的机器，也就是Instinct代理，去预订Fort Charles以及其他很难订到甚至根本订不到的餐厅。

And people were using their machine, their Instinct agent, to book reservations at Fort Charles and other hard to get impossible to get reservations.

他们一直在给Resy和Dynamics发消息。

And they were pinging Resy on Dynamics.

他们疯狂地调用Resy的API，次数多得吓人。

They were pinging Resy's API, like, a gazillion times.

Resy那边看起来就像是被攻击了一样。

And Resy looked probably looked like they were being attacked.

他们肯定在想，这到底是怎么回事？

Like, what the hell is happening?

所以他们就把它关掉了。

So they shut it off.

他们取消了一些人未来的预订，直接把他们踢出平台，说，不行。

They canceled some of these people's future reservations and just booted them from the platform saying, nope.

你们不能这么干。

You can't do this.

我正试着搞清楚到底发生了什么，看起来还挺直接的。

And as I'm trying to, like, make sense of, like, what's happening, and it seemed fairly straightforward.

但我在想更大的图景。

But I was thinking about a bigger picture.

你得找一个可靠的来源。

You have to find a trusted source.

这就是我要说的重点。

Here's where I'm going with all this.

然后我想，你知道吗？

And I thought, you know what?

我真的不想花太多时间去追根究底。

I don't really wanna spend that much time trying to get to the source of truth here.

我很期待看本·汤普森怎么说这件事。

I'm excited to see what Ben Thompson has to say about this.

对吧？

Right?

他会把这事分析清楚的。

He will break it down.

我就等着看他的观点。

I will just wait for his take.

而且，本，我为我们自2017年开始这个播客以来所做的工作感到自豪，在那之前我们写了很多文章，告诉人们别理会那些胡说八道。

And I'm proud of the work that we've done, Ben, since 2017 when we started this podcast and were writing long before that about telling people to ignore this bullshit.

而且我非常非常非常高兴，我们成为了很多人的真相来源，帮助他们对抗那些不断被强加给他们的胡说八道。

And I'm very, very, very happy that we are a source of truth for a lot of people to push back against all of this bullshit that is constantly shoved down people's throats.

我同意。

I agree.

这也是我最初开始写作的原因之一，因为我实在受够了危机中传来的那些负面情绪。

That that was the biggest that was one of the reasons I started writing in the first place because I was so sick of the negativity coming out of the crisis.

我再也受不了了。

I couldn't take it anymore.

说到这个，挺有意思的，这里有个好引子。

Speaking of which, this is interesting because good lead here.

《华尔街日报》上周有篇很棒的文章，非常积极，而且不是那种受害者心态的。

The Walt there's a great story in The Wall Street Journal this past week that is very positive, and it's not, you know, it's not falling back on the victim's self.

美国梦还活着，而且正在造就百万富翁。

The American Dream is alive, and it's minting millionaires.

所以他们谈到了迪克·波蒂略，这有点好笑。

So they talk about Dick Portillo, which is kind of funny.

我的孩子们，我记不清我们在看什么电影了。

My kids I can't remember what movie we were watching.

我的孩子们不敢相信，以前人们真的会这样，你的名字是理查德，然后不，现在你叫迪克。

My kids can't believe that that people used to actually, your name is Richard, and no, now you're Dick.

我的孩子们就说，这怎么可能？

My kids are like, how is that a thing?

我觉得有个喜剧演员讲过这个段子。

I think there was a comedian who did a bit on this.

以前这到底是怎么成为一回事的？显然，这种事再也不会发生了。

How how did that how was that ever a thing in the past that people that like, obviously, that's never happening again.

对。

No.

是吧？

Right?

对。

No.

迪基·格林利夫，还有《瑞普利小姐的故事》，对吧？

Dickie Greenleaf and, Tales of Miss Ripley, right?

就是说，这种事再也不会发生了。

Like, it's just it's never happening again.

总之，说到他六十年代开热狗摊，其实他根本不会做热狗。

Anyway, So talk about how he opened a hot dog stand in the nineteen sixties, didn't know how to cook a hot dog.

一个世纪后，他把公司卖了十亿美元。我还记得第一次吃波蒂略的情景。

A century later, he sold the company for a billion dollars, which I still remember the very first time I tried Portillo's.

我和我妻子，那时候我们还没结婚呢，去芝加哥看我哥，住在他的公寓里。

My wife and I, I think we weren't even married yet, we go to visit my brother in Chicago at his condo.

我们直接去了酒吧，因为到得晚。

We go straight to the bar because we got there late.

然后我们才想起来，哎呀，我们还没吃晚饭呢。

And we're like, oh, we didn't even have dinner.

我们到得太晚了。

We got here so late.

我哥哥跑去Portillo's买了辣味意大利牛肉三明治带回来。

My brother ran over to Portillo's and got us the spicy Italian beef and brought it back.

我和我妻子至今还记得那件事。

And my wife and I still remember that to this day.

天哪，

Like, oh my gosh.

那是我这辈子吃过的最好吃的

That's one of the best

太好吃了。

So good.

三明治之一。

Sandwiches I've ever had in my life.

他在回忆录里提到，他小时候家里很穷，觉得自己一无是处，没什么能贡献给世界的。

And he talked about, I guess in his memoir, he grew up poor, he, like, didn't thought he didn't have anything to offer the world.

他从小家境不好，家里是移民，住在政府建的廉租房里。这个故事的重点是，有很多人出身非常糟糕，而现在那些大富豪，大多数并不是来自常春藤名校或者东部那些地方。

He grew up his family was immigrants, they lived in a housing project, and the whole point of this story was there's all these people that came from really, really bad backgrounds, and most of the people who are these big time millionaires now, most of them didn't come from, like, the, you know, Ivy League schools or the East.

他们就是普通人，他们采访了那些开暖通空调公司的人，或者做其他行业的，并不是像大家想的那样靠科技发家致富。

Like, they they're just regular people, they they interview all these people who started an HVAC company or certain, like, act not technology like the way you think everyone gets in in, you know, rich these days.

所以他们称这些人为“遍地都是的百万富翁”。

So they talk about they they call them these everywhere millionaires.

他们说这样的人有三百万，总资产超过六十五万亿美元。

They say there's 3,000,000 of them collectively worth more than $65,000,000,000,000.

大多数人来自贫穷或中产阶级家庭，因为底层99%的人数是顶层1%的99倍。

Most come from poor middle class families simply because there are 99 times as many people in the bottom 99 as the top 1%.

在明星创业者中，出身贫寒的人数是出身顶层1%的两倍半。

Among star founders, there are two and a half times as many from poor backgrounds as from the top 1%.

只有四分之一的百万富翁企业主是继承家业的。

Only a quarter of business owners worth $5,000,000 or more inherited their companies.

他们列举了各种这样的例子。

And they go through all these different examples of this.

这篇文章的核心观点就是，你可以抱怨现状有多糟糕，也可以自己动手去尝试点什么。

And the whole point of the article is, listen, you can complain about how bad things are or you can, like, bootstrap and try something.

当然，有多少人真的能像这些人一样中彩票呢？

Now, obviously, how many people are actually gonna win the lottery like these people?

我理解这种质疑，但我喜欢这篇文章的基调。

I get that pushback, but I love the tone of the article.

我同意。

I agree.

我也很喜欢。

I loved it too.

谢谢《华尔街日报》写了这篇文章。

Thank you, Wall Street Journal, for writing this.

而且，这也是一个特定时代的产物。

And and also, this was a moment in time.

过去大概75%的人能这样做，但那已经是过去式了。

The last, I don't know, 75 of people being able to do this, that's in the past.

因为下一批65个万亿富翁，都是靠继承来的。

Because the next crop of 65 trillionaires, it's just inheritances.

不仅仅是，不仅仅是，而且这是……

Not only not only, but it's it's

所以他们在文章里，谈到了那些八年前创办Dave's Hot Chicken的人，后来以十亿美元卖掉了生意。

So they the in the they in this piece, they talk about these guys who started Dave's Hot Chicken eight years ago and sold the business for a billion dollars.

他们最初在洛杉矶的一个停车场，用900美元起步。

They started it in a parking lot in Los Angeles for $900.

你不觉得AI会比过去更容易帮助人们创业吗？

You don't think AI is going to help people start businesses easier than in the past?

完全同意。

Totally.

毫无疑问。

Without a doubt.

你说得对，你说得对。

You're you're it it it you're right.

感觉就像某个时代，比如六十年代，你可以从高盛的收发室干起，一路做到合伙人。

It feels like a point in time, like in the sixties, you could start in the mail room at Goldman Sachs and work your way up to be a partner.

我同意。

I agree.

那种时代已经过去了。

That is that is gone.

但我真的觉得，AI会让那些以前从没想过创业的人更容易开始创业。

But I I I think AI is actually going to make it easier for people to start businesses that would have never started a business before.

我同意。

I agree.

当然。

For sure.

不过，这个反驳也有道理。

Fair pushback, though.

好吧。

Alright.

我觉得咱们得先放一放大学这个话题。

I think we gotta chill out with the college stuff.

我觉得现在有很多人在说，通常是那些知识分子精英，说大学的投资回报率已经不行了。

I feel like there's a there's a lot of people on the corner now, and it's usually, like, the intellectual elites who are saying the ROI for college just isn't there anymore.

这根本说不通。

It doesn't make any sense.

《华尔街日报》有篇报道说，没有大学学位的美国人正迎来多年来最好的就业市场之一。

And there's a so there's a story in the Wall Street Journal, Americans without college degrees are having one of the best job markets in years.

它想说明这个，我不知道你看到那个图表没有。

And it's trying to this I don't know if you saw this chart.

这个图表可真是费了不少劲。

This chart is kind of doing a lot of work.

它说2026年，22到34岁有大学学位的工人，失业率相对比没有学位的同龄人更差。

So it's saying in 2026, workers aged 22 to 34 with college degrees faced worse relative unemployment than peers with no college degrees.

这里“相对”这个词可真是关键，因为这是相对于2003年来说的。

Now that word relative is doing a lot of heavy lifting here because that's relative to 2003.

对吧？

Okay?

你跟上我说的了吗？

Is that you're following me?

现在看看下一张图。

Now look at this next look at the next chart.

同一篇文章里，按就业状况和年龄段划分的人口比例。

In the same article, share of population by employment status and age group.

哪个群体的就业前景最好？

What group has the by far the best employment prospects?

是没有高中文凭、只有高中文凭，还是有大学学位的？

No no high school, high school diploma, or college degree?

对。

Right.

差距太明显了。

It's not even close.

大学学位仍然值得。

The college degree is still worth it.

再看看这个。

And look at this.

这是来自劳工统计局的数据。

This is from the BLS.

25岁及以上人群按教育程度划分的失业率，他们分为高中以下学历、高中毕业生、有些大学经历，以及学士学位。

Unemployment rates for people twenty five years and older by educational attainment, and they they have it by less than a high school diploma, high school graduates, some college, and then bachelor's degree.

这个差距近年来确实缩小了，我觉得这对教育程度较低的人来说是件好事。

Now this has this has certainly shrunk over the years, I think is a great thing for people that have less education.

但高中以下学历的失业率接近5%，而大学学位的失业率是2.7%。

But it's it's almost 5% for people who have less than a high school diploma, and it's 2.7% for people that have a college degree.

2.7%的失业率几乎就是正常状态。

Is 2.7% unemployment is just the normal state of being.

我们在节目开头讨论的那种“一切都过头了”的说法，这就是一个很好的例子。

This narrative that we discussed at the top of the show of everything being taken too far, this is a great example of that.

因为我觉得，说实话，我不知道人们是从什么时候开始质疑大学的。

Because I think rightfully so, I don't know when people started questioning college.

我敢肯定已经有一段时间了，你知道的，但现在真的开始变得很吵了。

I'm sure it's been, you know, it's been a while now, but it really started to get loud.

嘿，等一下。

Hey, wait a minute.

我们确定19岁的年轻人应该做出他们人生中最重要的财务决定吗？

Are we sure that 19 year olds should be making the most important financial decision of their life?

对。

Right.

我们确定20万美元是合理的价格吗？

Are we sure that $200,000 is an appropriate price?

因为大学做得太过分了。

Because the colleges took it too far.

他们一直推，一直推，一直推，直到最后变得疯狂。

And they pushed and they pushed and they pushed until eventually it became insane.

完全负担不起。

Totally unaffordable.

腐败什么的，反正就是离谱。

Corruption, whatever whatever, just, you know, insane.

这些年来，我们已经到了现在这个地步，就是大家都在想，大学作为一种制度，到底还有没有意义？

And over the years, we've gotten to the point where we are now, where it's like, are we sure that college even makes sense anymore as a construct?

有。

Yes.

当然有。

Of course it does.

各种细微差别和灰色地带确实存在，但我们现在就是到了这个节点。

Nuance, gray areas, you know, abound, but we're now at that point.

但问题是，未来几年有很多大学会彻底完蛋。

The thing is though, there's a lot of colleges that are totally screwed in the years ahead.

我爸爸当年上的是密歇根州大急流城的一所小学校，叫阿奎那学院。

And so so my dad went to the small Aquinas College in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

阿奎那。

Aquinas.

非常小，我不知道，大概一千五。

What Very tiny, I don't know, 1,500

再说一遍那个词。

Say that word one more time.

阿奎那。

Aquinas.

就像托马斯·阿奎那，你知道，我……

Like Thomas Aquinas, like the, you know I

我不知道那是什么。

don't I don't know what that is.

那是个词还是个人名？

Is that a word or a name?

还是什么类别？

Or a category?

你以前听说过托马斯·阿奎那吗？

Have you ever heard of Thomas Aquinas before?

没有。

Nope.

好吧。

Okay.

查查吧。

Look it up.

那是个很小的学校，他后来进了校董会。

So it's a very tiny school, and, he eventually was on the board of the school.

有意思的是，如果我去了那儿，作为校友能打五折。

And it's funny because if I would've went there, would've got like a 50% discount for being an alumni.

他们看这个，纯粹是人口统计数据。

And they they see they look at this is pure demographics.

人们一直在谈论即将到来的生育危机。

People have talked about the fertility crisis coming.

如果你问Claude或者ChatGPT，美国每年18岁的人数，然后往后推三十年，你会发现18岁的人数会断崖式下跌。

If you ask Claude or Chad GPT, number of 18 year olds in The US by year and extend it out to like thirty years in the future, It's the number of 18 year olds falls off a cliff.

所以这些大学看到这个趋势，心想，我们知道这就要来了。

So these colleges were looking at this going, we see this coming.

每年高中毕业的18岁人数一直在下降，下降，再下降。

The number of 18 year olds graduating high school every single year goes down and down and down and down.

如果你不是名牌大学，那你就惨了。

And if you're not, like, a name brand college, you are screwed.

所以这所大学做了什么，我猜我爸说过，现在那里大概有50%的人参加某种体育运动。

So what this college did, I think my dad said like 50% of the people who are there now play some sort of sport.

他们就是让所有人都能参加。

They just let everyone play.

他们不得不做点什么来吸引更多人来。

They've had to try to do something to get more people to come.

嘿，你可以来参加足球队、长曲棍球队、曲棍球队，什么的都行。

Hey, can come be on the soccer team or the lacrosse team or the field hockey team, whatever it is.

但很多像这样的小型学校真的没救了，除非我们放开招收各种外国学生，但看起来我们正在反其道而行之。

But a lot of these little smaller schools like that are absolutely screwed, and there's nothing they can do unless we just let in all types of foreign students, which seems to be the opposite way we're going.

对。

Right.

有一篇大文章

There was huge article

那是个真正的危机，是那种你能预见到的。

in the That's an actual crisis that that's like you can see coming.

《华尔街日报》上有一篇大文章，引起了很多关注，讲的是雪城大学好像遇到了招生不足的问题，我记得他们是这样描述的。

There was a huge article in the journal that got a lot of attention about Syracuse having like some sort of enrollment shortage, I think it was, is is how they described it.

是的。

Yes.

我发给克里斯了。

I sent it to Chris.

但是，珍娜，我忘了那些叙述性的内容。

But I, Jenna, I forgot the narrative stuff.

我的看法是，虽然我完全没资格发表意见。

My opinion on this, and I'm extremely unqualified to have an opinion.

虽然我觉得我被大学开除过两次，但我觉得我在这件事上还是有发言权的。

Although I think I kicked out of college twice, I think I know what I'm talking about here.

你也入学了两次，所以你肯定做对了一些事情。

You also got, enrolled twice, so you must've done something right.

我其实入学了四次。

I was enrolled four times back.

你是怎么被录取的？

How'd you get accepted?

好吧。

Okay.

这是我的经历。

Here's my journey.

印第安纳大学凯莱商学院，本科在阿尔特布拉克校区。

Indiana, Kelley School of Business as an undergrad at Alterbraeck.

还不错。

Pretty good.

我SAT考得确实不错，虽然我的GPA不怎么样。

I did do well in my SATs, although even though my GPA was

我还是不敢相信你最后去了中西部。

I still can't believe you ended up in the Midwest.

这让我百思不得其解。

That that boggles my mind.

那是我能上到的最好的学校了。

It was the best school I got into.

好吧。

Alright.

印第安纳的NASA社区学院。

Indiana, NASA Community College.

印第安纳的皇后学院。

Indiana, Queens College.

报了四次名。

Enrolled four times.

那真是个好学校。

That's a good tour.

确实不错。

Pretty good.

话说回来，你说美国梦已经死了。

Anyway You say the American Dream is dead.

大学那些事，还有费用。

The college stuff, the cost

不过你上社区大学省下的钱可不少。

The amount of money you saved by going to community college, though.

对吧？

Right?

这就是关键，那些抱怨大学费用的人，其实有更便宜的选择。

That that's the thing, A cheaper version people who complain about the cost of college, a cheaper version does exist.

你可以先上两年社区大学，基本不用花什么钱，把那些无聊的课程都修完，然后再去一所更大的学校，如果你真的担心费用的话。

You can go to community college for two years, pay basically nothing, get all of those stupid coursework out of the way, then go then go to a bigger school if you're really concerned about the financing.

但作为一个18岁的年轻人，

There's like all as an 18 year old

当然。

Of course.

你不想那样做。

You don't wanna do that.

有各种各样的社会压力，而且父母肯定不听。

There's all sorts of social pressures, and the parents definitely don't listen.

我不想送我的孩子去社区大学。

I don't wanna send my kids to community college.

你什么意思？

What do mean?

我理解，但我是说，如果你最关心的是费用，那是有办法解决的。

I get it, but I'm saying if if that's your one big thing is the cost, there are ways around it.

大家就是不想这么做。

People just don't wanna do it.

对。

Yeah.

好吧。

Alright.

本，关于AI有一点我真的很不喜欢。

Here's one part about AI that I really don't like, Ben.

这超级烦人。

This is super annoying.

就是那种质疑一切的部分。

The questioning everything aspect of it.

你看到一张图片，你转发它，有人说，哥们，那是假的。

You see a picture, you repost it, somebody says, dude, that's fake.

然后你就会想，

And you're like,

哦。

oh.

对吧？

Right?

所以这种事发生一两次后，你就会想，等等。

So you do that once or twice, you're like, hey, wait a minute.

我不会再被骗了。

I'm not getting fooled again.

被骗两次可不行，对吧？

Fool me twice can't right?

田纳西州那句话怎么说来着？

What's that line in Tennessee?

是的。

Yes.

所以我一直在截图问Claude，这真的很烦人。

So I've been I've been taking screenshots and asking Claude, which is really annoying.

我不想生活在这样的世界里，但这就是我们生活的世界。

I don't wanna live in a world like that, but that's the world that we live in.

所以Instagram上有一个叫《Gatorface》的电影预告片。

So there was a a trailer on Instagram for a movie called Gatorface.

我搜了一下《Gatorface》的预告片，果然是真的。

And I googled Gatorface trailer, and sure enough, it's actually real.

听起来你会去看这部电影。

So that sounds like a movie you'll go see.

有趣的是，

It's funny because

等等。

So Wait.

关于这个AI的事。

On this AI thing.

我们小时候会玩电子游戏。

When we were growing up, we'd play video games.

你知道吗，当你打游戏打得太狠的时候，电脑突然就进入狂暴模式，直接把你干掉？

You know when you beat you beat a video game too much, all of a sudden the computer just goes on beast mode and kills you?

就像，哎呀，电脑，你不能这样。

Like, oh, the computer, you can't do that.

我完成了这一关，或者我杀了那个家伙什么的。

I completed this pass or I killed this guy or whatever.

现在我们玩任天堂游戏的时候，我儿子想通关任天堂体育的所有职业级别。

When we play video games now on our Nintendo, my son wants to beat all of the professional levels on the Nintendo sports.

你知道，你自己挥杆什么的，然后等等。

You know, you swing this stuff yourself and Wait.

你不能，你不能像以前玩《麦登橄榄球》的全职业难度那样，你连两码都推进不了。

You you can't you can't like, remember back in day in Madden All Pro, you you you can't even gain two yards.

对。

Right.

所以，这挺搞笑的。

So by so it's funny.

他们现在不叫它电脑了。

They don't call it the computer anymore.

他们叫它AI。

They call it AI.

就像，哎呀，AI又打败我们了。

Like, oh, the AI is beating us again.

所以对他们来说，AI现在就是一切。

So for them, like, AI is just everything now.

对。

Yeah.

所以这部电影，《鳄鱼脸》，本，看起来是把我最喜欢的两种类型片结合到了一部电影里。

So this movie, Gatorface, Ben, it seems to be that there's that they've combined two of my favorite genres into one movie.

它是一部老式风格的杀人狂电影，本，而且还有真的鳄鱼吃人。

There it's a slasher or old school style, Ben, and there's also actually alligators eating people.

真是混搭啊。

What a mashup.

我觉得这电影就是专门为我拍的。

I feel like this was made specifically for me.

好。

Okay.

我儿子也会喜欢看这个。

My son will watch this too.

就是鳄鱼吃人，这种片子可能还不够多。

You're just alligators eating there probably haven't been enough of those.

看看那个缩略图，看看预告片的缩略图。

Look at the thumbnail look at the thumbnail of the trailer.

就是一个女人的头被鳄鱼咬在嘴里。

It's a it's a a woman with her head in between an alligator's jaws.

不用多说了。

Say no more.

我完全入坑了。

I'm all the way in.

好的。

Okay.

我想说的是，你当然会这样。

I wanna talk about of course you are.

我觉得每次我登录社交媒体，只要有新模型出来，大家都会很震惊。

The I feel like every time I log on to social media and there's a new model that comes out, people are, like, blown away.

那些懂行的人都被震撼到了。

The tech the people who know this stuff are blown away.

天哪。

Oh my gosh.

它解出了某个数学方程，或者什么的，AI能解这些数学题。

It solved this mathematical equation or whatever that that AI can do these math problems.

真是难以置信。

It's unbelievable.

然后我想到了纽曼，就是《侏罗纪公园》里的那个纽曼。

And I think of the Newman the Newman model, the Newman thing from Jurassic Park.

人工智能

AI

模型出来了。

models here.

对。

Yeah.

没人关心。

Nobody cares.

对。

Yeah.

再看失业金申请和持续申请人数持续下降，《大西洋月刊》或《纽约时报》有篇文章说，为什么失业末日没有发生？

And looking through the the jobless claims and continuing claims continue to go down, the Atlantic had this piece about or the New York had a piece about, like, why has the job apocalypse not happened?

现在人们总说，等着瞧。

Now people keep saying, well, just wait.

等着瞧。

Just wait.

再等等看。

Just wait.

好吧。

Fine.

萨姆·奥尔特曼说经济有很强的惯性。

And Sam Altman said the economy has so much inertia.

我一直在想，为什么到目前为止大家都错得这么离谱？

I I I I'm I've been trying to think through, like, why have everyone been so wrong about this so far?

比如，为什么劳动力市场一点都没受影响？

Like, why why has the like, the labor market has not been impacted at all?

一点都没有？

At all?

你之前提到过本·汤普森。

So you mentioned Ben Thompson earlier.

他提到过一本叫《搞定》的书，是关于提高效率的。

He he talked about this book called, Getting Things Done, which is productivity thing.

他今天在Trajectory上写了一整篇关于这个的文章。

He wrote a whole piece about this on trajectory today.

他谈到了不管他建了多少系统，他建了所有这些系统来帮助他的助手，让他的生活更轻松。

And he talked about how no matter how many and he talked about all the systems he's building to help his like assistance out and like make his life easier.

你听到所有这些科技人士都在谈论这个。

And you hear all these tech people talking about this.

我有这个系统，它会检查这个，它会做那个。

I have this system, and it checks this, and it does this.

他说不管你建了多少系统，你还是得行动。

He said no matter how many systems you build, you still have to act.

光有系统去做事是不够的。

It's not enough to have systems to do things.

你必须真正去做那些事情。

You have to actually do the things.

把事情写下来有难以置信的力量，而他说AI真的很擅长把事情写下来。

Writing things down is unbelievably powerful, and he's saying AI really is really good at writing things down.

它的力量永远比不上真正把事情做完。

Its power will always pale in comparison to getting things done.

所以，如果人们愿意用这些系统，AI确实能提升每个人的能力，但不一定能提升动力。

So AI increases everyone's capabilities if they want to use the systems, but not necessarily motivation.

所以，我觉得他的意思是，AI确实能帮你把事情做完，但你仍然需要决定哪些事情该做，哪些事情必须做。

So and I think his point was like, you can AI can really help you get stuff done, but you also still have to determine what should get done and what needs to get done.

所以，AI永远不会帮你激发动力。

And and so I AI is never gonna help motivate you.

所以，想想我们在公共领域谈论的那些人，有多少人根本不用AI。

So, like, you could have all these tool think about how many people in the public sphere that we talk about that don't use AI at all.

有这么多工具可以让他们生活更轻松，但真正用的人很少。

There's all these tools they could be using to make their life easier, and no one really does it.

本，你说得太对了。

Ben, you're so right.

AI不会自己完成这些，对吧？

AI is not gonna do this on its own, is it?

真不敢相信你还留着它。

Can't believe you still have it.

但事情是不是就这么简单？我们有这些工具，用它们的人能让生活变得好得多，但大多数人可能只会说，我不知道。

But is is is it as simple as that where where, yes, we have these tools and the people that use them can make their life so much better, but most people are just gonna go, I don't know.

或者回到你之前提到的预订问题，如果每个人都能说，我的AI助手，嘿，帮我订个镇上最好的餐厅。

Or to your point about the reservations earlier, if everyone has the ability to say, my AI agent, hey, make a reservation at the greatest restaurant best restaurant in the in the town.

如果每个人的AI助手都这么做，那谁会先订到呢？

If everyone's AI agents are doing that, what who's gonna get it first?

我怎么，你有

How do I you have

看到了，是的，我看到一个观点让我想吐。

saw, yeah, I saw a take that made me wanna puke.

而正是这种时刻，我觉得我们所有普通人都想说，停车。

And this just like, this is the type of moment that I think all of us normal human beings are like, stop the train.

我现在想下车了。

I wanna get off now.

我不喜欢这个。

I don't like this.

有人会说，这倒是个观点。

Somebody's like, this is a take.

为什么预订应该是免费的呢？

Why should reservations be free?

难道不应该有一个预订的市场吗？

Shouldn't there be a marketplace for reservations?

为什么周六晚上七点半的预订显然比周一早上五点一刻的预订更值钱呢？

Why a reservation for Saturday at 07:30 is obviously worth more than a Monday reservation at 05:15.

我们能不能冷静一下，别那么资本化？

Could we just calm down with the capital

这就像买IMAX电影票更贵一样。

So this is like paying for the IMAX movie tickets higher.

但接下来会发生什么呢。

But this is what's gonna happen though.