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今天的节目由YCharts赞助。
Today's show is sponsored by YCharts.
人工智能的一个承诺是帮助理财顾问节省时间。
One promise of AI is that it should help advisors save time.
但对大多数人来说，AI只不过多了一个要管理的标签页。
But for most, AI has just become another tab to manage.
正因如此，YCharts开发了Y这个AI助手，可以直接在平台内部工作。
That's why YCharts built Y, an AI agent designed to work directly inside the platform.
顾问不用再到处找答案，然后琢磨下一步该怎么做，而是可以直接用Y来实际完成工作。
Instead of searching for answers and then figuring out the next step, advisers can use Y to help actually do their work.
Y可以帮你撰写方案、分析投资组合、比较不同资产，并生成客户-ready的材料。
Y will build proposals, analyze portfolios, compare investments, and create client ready materials.
比如，你可以上传客户的券商对账单，让Y分析持仓、找出机会、制作图表、生成方案初稿，所有这些都直接在同一个工作流程里完成，而这个流程正是成千上万顾问早已信赖的。
For example, you can upload a prospect's brokerage statement and ask Y to analyze the holdings, identify opportunities, build supporting visuals, generate a proposal draft all within the same workflow thousands of advisers already trust.
你负责提供专业的投资见解。
You bring the investment expertise.
Why 能把想法变成行动。
Why helps turn ideas into action.
点击节目说明中的链接，了解更多，并享受20%的首年YCharts专业版订阅折扣，亲自体验一下Y。
Click the link in the show notes to learn more and get 20% off your initial YCharts professional subscription to take y for a spin.
此优惠仅限新客户。
That's for new customers only.
本期节目由先锋集团赞助。
Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard.
致所有正在收听的理财顾问，咱们来聊聊债券吧。
To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute.
在固定收益市场中捕捉价值并不容易。
Capturing value in fixed income is not easy.
债券市场庞大又复杂，说实话，情况挺混乱的。
Bond markets are massive, murky, and let's be real.
很多公司只是丢给你几个花哨的基金就完事了，但先锋集团不是这样。
Lots of firms throw a couple flashy funds your way and call it a day, but not Vanguard.
有些基金经理承诺高回报，但通常伴随着高风险，这让投资者经历大起大落。
Some managers out there promise big returns, but those usually come with big risks, and that can mean a roller coaster ride for investors.
先锋基金采取的是更稳健的策略。
Vanguard takes a steadier approach.
他们不会孤注一掷去赌高风险的项目。
They don't go all in on risky bets.
相反，他们更看重可靠性和持续性。
Instead, they focus on reliability and consistency.
虽然不总是耀眼夺目，但这种做法树立了稳健投资的标杆。
It's not always flashy, but it sets the standard for what dependable investing should look like.
如果你希望为客户带来年复一年的稳定回报，不妨亲自去 vanguard.com/audio 看看他们的业绩记录。
So if you're looking to give your clients consistent results year in and year out, go see the record for yourself at vanguard.com/audio.
网址是 vanguard.com/audio。
That's vanguard dot com slash audio.
所有投资都存在风险。
All investing is subject to risk.
先锋营销公司经销商
Vanguard Marketing Corporation distributor.
投资
Investing.
欢迎收听迈克尔·巴特尼克和本·卡尔森的节目，聊聊他们最近读了什么、写了什么、看了什么。
Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.
迈克尔和本表达的所有观点均为个人意见，不代表里索尔茨财富管理公司的立场。
All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
本播客仅供信息参考，不应作为任何投资决策的依据。
This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.
里索尔茨财富管理公司的客户可能持有本播客中讨论的证券。
Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
欢迎收听《动物精神》，由迈克尔和本主持。
Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.
好的
Alright.
迈克尔，截至我们录制时，标普500指数从历史高点下跌了大约2%。
Michael, the S and P 500 as of this recording is down about 2% from the all time highs.
对。
That's Mhmm.
根本算不上什么大事。
Obviously nothing.
没法给它下个定义。
Can't call it anything.
就这么回事了。
That's that's it happened.
但有很多股票正在经历惨烈的下跌。
But there are a ton of stocks that are, like, having a bloodbath.
我们聊过很多上涨的股票，比如半导体，那些股确实回调了一些，但现在整体跌得特别凶。
We've talked a lot about stocks that have been going up, the semiconductors, and I guess some of those have come in, but there there's a huge bloodbath right now.
我能
Can I
我能问个问题吗？
ask a question?
当然可以。
Yes.
下跌5%叫回调，10%叫修正，20%才叫熊市。
5% pullback, 10% correction, 20% bar market.
对。
Yes.
那这2%的下跌，咱们给它起个名字吗？
Do we wanna give the 2% a name?
小反弹？
Pickup?
就像撞到脚趾头那样。
Stubbed toe.
就跟撞到脚趾头一样。
It's like when you stub your toe.
这样公平吗？
Is that fair?
是的。
Yeah.
刚开始确实挺难受的。
Stinks for a second.
所以我希望你能和我一起深入挖掘一下。
So I want I want you to go bottom fishing with me here.
甲骨文股价从高点已经下跌了60%以上。
Oracle is more than 60% off the highs.
我也把加密货币算进来了，因为它们本质上都是科技概念。
I put in the crypto here too because those are that the concept's tech.
以太坊从高点也跌了60%。
Ethereum is 60% off the highs.
比特币从高点跌了50%。
Bitcoin is 50% off the highs.
奈飞从高点跌了50%。
Netflix, 50% off the highs.
我待会儿再聊聊它们。
I wanna talk about them a little bit later.
SpaceX已经从高点跌了40%。
SpaceX is already 40% off the highs.
这速度真快。
That was really quick.
英特尔从高点跌了30%。
Intel is 30% off the highs.
如果你看整个半导体内存板块，DRAM已经跌了33%。
If you did the whole semiconductor memory space, DRAM is down 33%.
这就是选股票的痛苦和喜悦了——市场整体还好好的，个股却能这么惨。
So this is like the agony and ecstasy of picking stocks, obviously, that you can have this happen while the market is really still doing fine.
对。
Mhmm.
你现在在科技股里是个价值投资者吧。
You're you're a value investor right now in the tech space.
你最近在关注哪些标的？
Where are you looking?
我持有Netflix的股票。
Well, I own Netflix.
我们待会儿再详细聊。
We'll talk more about it.
我最近又买了一些。
I bought more What people
大家都在说Netflix快完蛋了。
people are people are pouring dirt on Netflix's grave.
我昨天又加仓了Netflix。
I bought more Netflix yesterday.
这个我们稍后再深入说。
We could talk more about that later.
我到底在找什么标的？
Which my body fishing for?
我觉得机会多得很。
Think there's lot of opportunities.
在创新热潮中，居然还发生这种事，真是特别有意思。
It's really, really interesting that in a innovation boom, that this still happens.
在这么一个繁荣期、泡沫期——也许现在都不该叫泡沫了——赢家和输家之间的差距，恐怕是历史上最大的。
That the this is this has to be the biggest during a boom or a bubble or whatever you wanna call it, maybe we can't call it a bubble anymore, the range of outcomes for the winners and losers has to be never been wider than this for for the the space that's winning.
在股市里，正发生一场剧烈的分化。
Inside the stock market, there is a violent separation.
你听过那句话吗？钱总会流向被善待的地方。
You know the phrase money goes to where it's treated best?
我觉得这句活就是2026年的主旋律。
I feel like that is like the theme of 2026.
只要不奏效，就会被彻底淘汰。
If it's not working, it's getting destroyed.
如果它在运转，那就运转得特别特别好。
And if it's working, it's working really, really well.
现在我们看到过度拥挤的内存交易泡沫明显消退了，我觉得这简直太好了。
Now we saw a lot of the air come out of the overly crowded memory trade, which I thought I think is fantastic.
是的。
Yeah.
这确实早就该发生了。
Definitely needed to happen.
这种调整是必要的。
You need this.
在我看来，没有什么比一个强劲的上涨趋势，再适当给过热的情绪降降温更好的了。
I am nothing is nothing is better, in my opinion, than an awesome uptrend and letting some of the air out of over enthusiasm.
我从不希望看到别人亏钱。
Never like to see people lose money.
每次我说这类话的时候，我都会这么说。
I say that every time I say a comment like this.
但股市要想继续上涨，必须有担忧之墙出现，而这堵墙现在确实回来了。
But you need the wall of worry to emerge for stocks to ultimately go higher, and the wall is definitely back.
至于泡沫的讨论，我知道我们待会儿会聊这个，因为最近在这档播客里我们已经谈了很多泡沫了。
And the bubble talk I know we're talk about bubbles later because we've been talking about bubbles a lot lately on this podcast.
既然这些股票在两周内就跌了35%，我们能不能先把泡沫的话题放一放？
Could we maybe put a pin in the bubble talk given that these names just had a 35% drawdown in two weeks?
好，行。
Alright.
听我说。
Listen.
我觉得更奇怪的是，其他很多东西其实都表现得不错。
The the the I think the crazier part about it is that so much other stuff is doing well.
我看了罗素2000指数，也就是整个股市，差不多就是VTI那个范围。
So I took the Russell two Russell three thousand, which is the total stock market, call it like VTI essentially.
现在里面包含了两千六百多只股票。
It's 2,600 names now.
现在连三千都到不了了。
We can't even get to 3,000.
我们以前可是个大国。
We used to be a country.
你懂的。
You know?
以前罗素三千指数里可是有三千只股票的。
We used to be, like, 3,000 stocks in the Russell three thousand.
罗素三千指数本来就有三千只股票。
Russell three thousand has 3,000 stocks.
现在大概只剩两千五了，因为整个市场缩水了。
It's, like, 2,500 now because of the the toll the whole it's smaller.
你确定吗？
Are we sure about that?
那是罗素一千和罗素两千加起来的总数。
It's the Russell one thousand and the Russell 2,000 combined.
一千加两千。
1,000 plus 2,000.
我下载了罗素3000的名单，结果只给了2600个公司。
I downloaded the Russell 3,000, and they gave me 2,600 names.
我每周都会在通话里提到这个数据，看看股市最近怎么样。
66% I put I always put this in a call, like, once a week to see, like, what's going on in the stock market?
今年到目前为止，美国股市中有66%的股票是上涨的。
66% of stocks are positive year to date in The US stock market.
中位数回报率达到12.6%。
Median return is 12.6%.
这已经很不错了。
That's pretty good.
是的。
Yeah.
今年情况不错。
It's good year.
三分之二的股票都是上涨的，对吧。
Two thirds of stocks, right, are positive.
这真是不错的一年。
That that's a pretty good year.
我只是觉得挺意外的，这么多知名品牌公司股价大跌，而整个股市其他部分却都在上涨。
I'm just saying it's really surprising that a lot of these name brand companies are getting slaughtered while this is happening to all the rest of the stock market.
是的。
Mhmm.
确实挺有意思。
Interesting.
确实挺有意思的。
It is interesting.
对了，得提一下背景里的敲击声。
It's like, got we have to mention the banging in the background.
迈克尔，我听到了。
Michael I hear that.
他一个人撑起了美国的玄关改造，还又建了一个新的。
Is single handedly keeping mudrooms open for America and getting another new mudroom.
这真是
It's
玄关。
mudroom.
这是玄关2.0版了。
It's it's mudroom two point o.
它在回流。
It's running back.
我有个问题。
Now I got a question.
你建第二个玄关时，用的是和第一个一样的施工队吗？
Did did you use the same construction people that did your first mudroom for the second mudroom?
没用。
Nope.
真的吗？
No?
你对它不满意？
You aren't happy with it?
还行吧。
Not really.
你走进我家的时候，会看到一排楼梯，大概六级台阶往上走，左边有个很小的角落。
When you walk into my house, there is a set of stairs, about six stairs going up, and there's, a little tiny nook area to the left.
所以如果我们四个人一起进门，只能一个一个地过。
So if the four of us walk into the house, we have to do it single file.
那个地方特别小。
It's a very small area.
所以你知道，有孩子的家庭都懂，东西一堆一堆地积起来。
And so what happens, anybody who's listening with kids knows that the shit piles up.
包啊、网球拍啊、运动鞋啊，什么都往那儿堆。
The bags, the tennis rackets, sneakers, whatever it is.
我真需要一个放黄油的小房间。
It's it's I need a butter room.
所以我现在要切点东西，你知道的。
So I'm cutting you know what?
我本来打算在节目后半段再做这个的。
I was gonna do this later in show.
那我现在就做了。
I'll do it now.
我现在在努力保持善良，试着更温和一点，生气的时候深呼吸，不喊叫。
You know my that I'm on like a a kindness streak trying to be trying to be a little bit nicer, trying to breathe when I get upset and not yell.
行。
K.
对吧？
Right?
有孩子的话，这根本不可能做到。
When you have kids, it's imp that's impossible.
确实如此。
It really is.
我知道有些人从不对孩子大喊大叫，但那些人好像根本没情绪似的。
I know I that there are people out there who don't yell at their kids, but those people are like, have no emotion or something.
是的。
Yeah.
我说的不是我孩子。
I'm not talking about my kids.
他们一点宽容都得不到。
I they they get no they get no they get no grace.
我说的是陌生人，因为你永远不知道，生活有多难，你根本不清楚别人正在经历什么。
I'm talking about strangers because you never know, you know, life is hard and you never know what people are going through.
明白了。
Okay.
所以对陌生人多一点宽容吧。
So giving strangers a little bit grace.
不过本，我住的是个死胡同。
However Ben, I live in a cul de sac.
这儿车很少。
Not a lot of traffic here.
明白吧？
Okay?
有个垃圾箱直接开进了我的车道，不到两小时，市政检查员就来了。
A dumpster went into my driveway, and not two hours later, the town inspector comes through.
天哪。
Holy cow.
他拿着iPad，给我家拍了张照。
Has an iPad and takes a picture of my house.
是有人举报你了吗？
Does that mean that someone called them on you?
是的。
Yes.
天哪。
Woah.
我想我知道是谁干的。
And I think I know who it has been.
我觉得这种人根本不值得同情。
I feel like these people deserve no grace.
我真想直接去他们家门口敲门。
I kinda wanna knock on their door.
我知道是怎么回事，我怀疑就是他们。
Here's here's how I know Here's how I know I I suspect.
我住的街区有户人家，我停在街对面他们家车道正对的地方，他们居然贴了张便利贴在我挡风玻璃上，让我别停那儿。
There is a house on my block where I parked on my side of the street across from their driveway, and they put a post it note on my windshield asking me not to park there.
就是这种人，会向市政部门举报你。
These are the type of people that call the town on you.
你能想象吗？为了邻居没办许可证，就去举报人家？
Could you imagine calling the town on your neighbor for not having permits?
而且我现在也没在搞什么大拆大建。
And now it's not like I'm doing a ton of demolition.
当然，这噪音另当别论。
I mean, this noise not notwithstanding.
这项目很快就能搞定，来去都利索。
This is this is gonna be this is a quick project in and out.
总共就八天。
It's take eight days.
这是一对退休的夫妻吧？闲着没事干，专门盯着别人？
A Is is this a couple who is of retirement age and have nothing better to do with their time?
你觉得呢？
What do you think?
嗯。
K.
对。
Yeah.
不过话说回来，到底为什么要无缘无故给别人添麻烦呢？
But still, why why cause trouble for people for no reason at all?
闲着没事干呗。
Nothing to do.
所以说你千万别退休，不然整天就会忍不住去管别人的闲事。
This is why you don't retire because otherwise you just get in other people's business all the time.
好了，咱们回到股市的话题。
Anyway, back to the stock market.
恭喜你们有了新玄关。
Congrats on your new mudroom.
谢谢。
Thank you.
问题是
Thing is
相当
quite a
开头不错。
great start.
再讲一件事。
One more thing on this.
我们小时候，拥有的东西远没有现在孩子这么多。
When we were growing up, we did not have nearly as much stuff as kids have today.
那时候没人有储物柜、泥屋，也没有专门给小孩放东西的小隔间。
People did not have the lockers and the mudrooms and the spaces for kid, like cubby holes for kids.
我们小时候根本没这些东西。
That stuff didn't exist when we were growing up.
你知道为什么吗？
You know why?
我们小时候东西不多。
When we were
我们小时候东西不多。
We growing up don't have stuff.
我们小时候根本没有水瓶。
We don't have water bottles.
这算什么玩意儿？
What is this bullshit?
你家里有多少个水瓶？
How many water bottles do you have in your house?
现在孩子去哪儿都得带着一个金属水瓶。
Kids can't go anywhere without a a metal water bottle these days.
我上中学时，足球教练还常拿不给喝水当惩罚。
Our football coach, when I was in middle school, used to not let us have water as punishment.
这人要是搁今天，网上早被骂得体无完肤了。
That guy would be, like, tarred and feathered on the Internet today.
是啊。
Yeah.
好在现在这种混蛋已经不多见了。
That's that's probably good that we don't have those type of assholes in the in our
世界上。
world there.
确实如此。
But True.
好吧。
Alright.
接下来我们要去哪儿？
Where are we going next?
行。
Alright.
所以话说回来，去杠杆化这事儿，我们一直在聊它的来源，对。
So anyway, the deleveraging, we've been talking a lot about the the source of yeah.
大家在这儿玩得挺开心的。
People are people are having fun here.
韩国那边都快疯了。
People are going nuts in Korea.
韩国KOSPI 30期权的波动率飙升到了历史最高水平，连互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机时期都没这么夸张。
The 30 KOSPI volatility surges to its highest ever, ever, ever, including the dot com bust and the great financial crisis.
这也太疯狂了。
That's nuts.
当时有一些数据流传出来，说的是有多少韩国人因为保证金不足被强制平仓或者爆仓之类的。
There there were some data floating around around the number of South Koreans that got margin called or liquidated or whatever.
这事儿还有更深层的，Ben，这种疯狂程度是分层次的。
There's levels to this, Ben, to the degeneracy.
我很喜欢看到这种情况，因为我们在很多方面都是一个更成熟的市场。
I love seeing this because it's we're a more mature market in a lot of ways.
所以我们在这里看到的行为，虽然确实还在发生，但在股市里其他正在崛起的地方会被放大。
And so the behaviors that we see here, yes, still happen, but they get amplified in other places that are that are kind of coming up in the stock market world.
我特别喜欢看这些内容。
I I love to see this stuff.
我也不知道为什么。
I don't know why.
迟早人人都得向市场之神交学费。
It's everyone has to pay their tuition to the market gods at some point.
肯定有人靠韩国股票赚得盆满钵满，但也有不少人选对了股票，结果还是被血洗得一塌糊涂。
I'm sure there are people who got fantastically rich off South Korean stocks, but there are probably some people who bet on the right stocks and still got their faces just blown off.
真有意思。
Love to see it.
韩国现在糟到什么地步了？
How how bad is South Korea doing?
EWY就是韩国的ETF。
So so the EWY is the South Korea ETF.
已经跌了26%。
It's down 26%.
用杠杆的人现在大概亏了75%左右。
So people with leverage are have been they're down 75% or something right now.
他们活该。
Good for them.
好吧。
Alright.
这完全是本·卡尔森典型的推文。
This is this is such a typically Ben Carlson tweet.
说吧。
Go ahead.
好吧。
Alright.
我想论证一下。
I wanna make the case.
上周你硬把一堆跟市场毫无关系的新闻往一起扯。
Last week, you were trying to pigeonhole a bunch of stories that had had no bearing on the market at all.
你提到IBM，还非得编出点故事来。
You're talking like IBM, and you were you were trying to make stories happen.
你之前说的是什么？
You know what you said?
你说过，IBM这种事其实经常发生。
You said about IBM this thing this sort of thing happens all the time.
对。
Yeah.
你知不知道，一家市值三千亿美元的公司，一天内跌了25%，这种事我从没听说过。
Do you know that a company with a $300,000,000,000 market cap falling 25% in a single day, I don't think that's ever happened.
是的。
Yeah.
但现在公司规模大得多，所以不能拿以前的标准来套。
But we have bigger companies now, so you can't say that because the company the size is so much bigger
比那还要大。
than that.
咱们聊聊通胀吧。
So let's inflation
要调整过的。
adjusted.
调整一下，或者类似的情况。
Adjusted or something.
好的。
Alright.
按通胀调整后，大概在金融危机期间，这种情况发生了四次左右。
So inflation adjusted and say, yeah, probably during the GFC, happened, like, four times.
明白了。
Okay.
等等。
So Wait.
稍等一下。
Hold on.
你刚才说的，能不能倒回十秒？
You'd you just you you wanna rewind ten seconds?
我在试着把IBM的情况归类到某种模式里。
Does the IBM's I'm trying to pigeonhole stories.
是的
Yeah.
一家价值三千亿美元的软件公司一天内股价下跌25%，这确实是个值得关注的故事。
$300,000,000,000 software company falling 25% in a day is a mark and moving story.
不过咱们还是说回你，博伦先生。
But back to you, mister Boren.
你刚才说你正在努力变得更有礼貌。
You just talked about the fact that you're trying to be nicer.
我不信。
I don't believe you.
不是对你。
Not to you.
你可不是外人。
You're not a stranger.
好吧。
Alright.
你刚说这集播完就要去冲邻居发火。
Well, you just said you're gonna go after this episode, you're gonna yell at your neighbors.
我不会冲邻居吼，但他们真的逼得太紧了。
I'm not gonna yell at my neighbors, but they're pushing me.
明白了。
Alright.
这大概是我们经历过的最正常的一段时期了，毕竟过去这十年可以说是前所未有的异常。
So this is the most normal I think we've gone through a period of normalization where this has been one of the most abnormal decades we've see we've ever seen.
我觉得这么说挺公允的。
I think that's pretty fair fair to say.
我觉得我们差不多又回到常态了，现在GDP增长率在百分之二到三之间。
I think we're back to almost a normalization point because GDP growth is two to 3% right now.
通胀率是百分之三点五，正好落在百年来的平均值上。
Inflation, 3.5%, which is right on the one hundred year average, 3.5%.
十年期国债收益率现在是百分之四点五。
The ten year is yielding 4.5%.
明白吧？
Okay?
今年上半年，美国股市已经上涨了百分之十一。
The US stock market is up eleven percent six months into the year.
有些人会说，不，不，不。
Some people would say, no, no, no.
这都够一整年了。
That's a full year.
但其实，平均来看，上涨的年份涨幅是百分之二十一。
But actually, I would say the average up year is up 21%.
对。
Mhmm.
所以现在这个情况，正是最正常的常态写照。
So this is like the most normal take a snapshot, the picture of this right now.
对吧？
Right?
在世界杯上，他们用那个方框是干嘛的？
In the World Cup, do this with the square.
我不明白他们为啥这么干。
I don't know why they do this.
他们用这个是做什么？
What do they do that with?
哦，是用卡片吗？
Oh, with the cards?
就是他们用VAR的时候。
When they do VAR.
意思是，我们要回放一下。
Like, we're gonna go for the replay.
他们会画一个电视机的图案。
They draw us they draw a picture of a TV.
VAR是什么？
What is VAR?
你没看世界杯。
You didn't watch the World Cup.
算了。
Never mind.
我也不跟你解释了。
I'm not gonna explain it to you.
唐娜，你完全不在状态啊。
This Donna, is you're out of your element.
没错，就是这样。
This is yeah.
你就像个突然闯进电影院的小孩，完全看不懂剧情。
You're like a child that wanders into the middle of a movie.
现在一切都挺普通的。
Everything is average right now.
从市场角度来看，一切都挺正常的。
Everything is kind of normal market wise.
当你
When you
发推文问：这个观点公允吗？
tweet Is this a fair take?
你发这条推文的时候，是在偷笑吗？
You tweet this, are you like giggling?
你就是在网上故意逗人玩？
Like you're just trolling the Internet?
不是。
No.
因为这都是事实。
Because it this is facts.
我说的是，那些觉得这事儿荒唐到极点的人，其实才奇怪，这本来就很正常。
I'm saying the people who think this is the craziest thing ever and that this is normal.
从某些角度看，这本来就是正常的市场环境。
This is a normal market environment in some ways.
从牛奶吐司的角度来看，如果你是个看盘投资者——说实话我也不确定自己算不算，但我白天确实老盯着屏幕。
Through the prism of milk toast, if you are a snapshot investor, which I don't know, I happen to look at a screen during the day.
我就是这么疯。
I'm crazy like that.
那么没错，今年的市场情况其实挺正常的。
Then, yes, this is a normal market year.
如果你只看经济和市场的总体平均数据，今年确实很普通。
If you look just at the averages of the economy and markets, this is a normal year.
对。
Yeah.
要是你从一月份就睡过去了，你知道的，克里斯老给我发他度假的照片。
If you if you if you fell asleep in January you know, Chris keeps texting me pictures of his vacation.
我又不是在刷Instagram。
I'm not Instagram.
他干嘛总发这个？
Why does he do this?
我感觉自己像个老顽固，但我真的很爱他，也替他开心。
I feel like I feel like I'm being a curmudgeon, I love him, and I'm happy that he's happy.
但我从不会对他这么做。
But I don't do this to him.
这是我的伴侣，克里斯。
This is my partner, Chris.
他总把我和乔什当成他的私人Instagram账号。
He treats me and Josh like we're his personal Instagram.
你还记得以前，人们度假回来，就会搞个照片 slideshow 给大家看，可那时候也没人感兴趣。
Remember back in the day that you'd people you'd get back on vacation, and you'd like, a slideshow for people of all your pictures, and no one cared then either.
你说得对。
You're right.
好吧。
Alright.
《华尔街日报》上有个挺棒的故事。
Great story in The Wall Street Journal.
总之，你觉得这是普通的一年吗？
Anyway I feel like Normal year?
行吧。
K.
你不信我？
You don't believe me?
这真是挺普通的一年。
It's a pretty normal year.
我们经历了一次9%的回调。
We've we had a 9% correction.
从你的角度看，这确实算普通的一年。
This is a normal year.
但这也是非常精彩的一年。
Where you're coming from, but this is a very exciting year.
我一听‘普通’，就觉得是无聊。
When I hear normal, I think boring.
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我觉得是平均、标准、普通的那种。
I think average, standard, typical.
对我来说感觉不像那样，但我理解你的出发点。
It doesn't feel like that to me, but I hear what I hear where you're coming from.
好吧。
Alright.
普通投资者都在抛售那七巨头，转而追捧新的AI宠儿。
Everyday investors are over the Mag seven and into new AI darlings.
你的核心观点就是，资金会流向待遇最好的地方。
This is your whole thing about money going to where it is treated best.
这挺有意思的。
This is interesting.
所以他们这个月展示了个人投资者的净资金流向，大量散户资金流向了SpaceX。
So they show net flows by individual investors this month, and a ton of retail money went into SpaceX.
量非常大。
A lot.
到目前为止，这些股票都被打得够惨的了。
And I guess it's all gotten slaughtered at this point.
所以你觉得，这些抛售主要是因为大家觉得：算了。
So do you think most of this sale has been people being like, okay.
我本来指望能大涨一波的。
I was banking on a huge pop.
结果根本没涨起来。
It didn't really happen.
但他们列出的这些股票，我连一半都没听说过。
But they're showing these names, and I don't know, half of these names I've never heard of.
Andaz、Irre，还有一部分还是七巨头里的，但完全不是你预期的那些名字。
Andaz and Irre and it's still some Mag seven, but it's it's not the names that you'd expect to see.
Ondaas 是什么？O-N-D-A-S？
What is Ondaas, o n d a s?
我不清楚。
I don't know.
肯定有人会在评论里说咱们是傻子，连这些股票都不认识。
Someone's gonna tell us in the comments that we're idiots because we don't know all the stocks.
是的。
Yeah.
挺有意思的是，咱们刚才还在聊抄底的事。
It's interesting that we talked about buying the the dip.
甲骨文股价跌了60%，却涌进大批散户，想抓住这个下落的刀子。
Oracle down 60% has seen a huge inflow of retail investors trying to, like, trying to catch that falling knife.
明白了。
Okay.
我觉得这些故事就是专门放给我看的。
I think they put these types of stories in here just for me.
戴维斯·坎特雷尔，一位住在亚特兰大附近的大学生，已经投资了大约两年，一直密切关注最大的人工智能概念股。
Davis Cantrell, a college student based near Atlanta, has been investing for roughly two years and closely following the biggest AI players over that period.
听好了。
Listen.
这位19岁的年轻人最近减持了微软的股票。
The 19 year old recently trimmed his Microsoft holdings.
我在找一些激进、风险更高的成长型股票，他说。
I'm looking for aggressive, more high risk growth stocks, he said.
我觉得微软和英伟达已经不再符合这个标准了。
I just don't see Microsoft and Nvidia fitting into that category anymore.
我也是这么想的。
Neither do I.
我完全同意他的看法。
I totally agree with him.
对。
Yeah.
这小伙子19岁就看得这么清楚了。
This guy's got it figured out at 19.
对。
Yeah.
我19岁的时候根本不懂股票市场是啥。
I didn't know what the stock market was at 19 years old.
这小伙子真了不起。
Credit to this guy.
我真的完全不懂。
I I really didn't.
我觉得特别搞笑，居然去问一个19岁的孩子对市场怎么看。
I just I think I think it's hilarious that they ask a nineteen year old what he thinks of this market.
而且我觉得特别棒，看到这句话的时候，我们都觉得，哇。
And I think it's awesome that we read that quote and we're like, hey.
给戴维斯点赞。
Credit to Davis.
听起来这像是AI写的。
It sounds like this was AI.
我不确定。
I don't know.
戴维斯？不是。
Davis, no.
那是真的人。
That's a real guy.
好吧。
Alright.
嘉信理财的安全措施。
Citadel's security.
我想说的是，那三亿美元投给了SpaceX，我猜至少有一半已经套现了，说不定还不止。
I just wanna say the the $300,000,000 into SpaceX, I'm gonna guess that half of that money is out, or maybe that's a lot.
就说三分之一的钱已经卖了吧。
Let's say a third of the money is sold.
这肯定是快进快出的钱。
I it it it had to be fast money.
是的。
Yeah.
所以呢。
So yeah.
不过这挺有意思的。
It is interesting, though.
这说得通。
This makes sense.
Citadel Securities 又发布了一份报告。
Citadel Securities had another report.
他们问，散户开始抛售股票了吗？
They said, has retail started selling equities?
没有。
No.
散户依然是美国股票最强劲的长期买家。
The retail remains the strongest structural buyer of US equities.
难以置信。
Unbelievable.
七月份在我们的散户现金股票平台上，我们一天都没有看到过净卖出的情况。
We have not seen a single net sell day on our retail cash equities platform in July.
这是自2020年1月以来散户买入的第二强月份，也是我们数据集中七月最强的记录。
Second strongest month for retail buying since January 2020, the strongest July in our dataset.
所以人们还在
So people are
继续我
still I
20美元。
$20.
我没想到这还在继续。
I that this is still happening.
散户，也就是普通投资者，依然在逢低买入，还在赚钱。我脑子里有个声音一直在说：‘坐稳了，别掉下去。’
Retail, that the everyday investor is still buying the dip, still making money, and I hear, bottle up bucker butt buckle up Buttercup asshole in the back of my head.
再等等看。
Just wait.
是的
Yeah.
好吧
Okay.
行吧
Fine.
再等等看
Just wait.
可你早就这么说很久了
But you've been saying that for a long time.
说到底，那个‘buckle up Buttercup’是发给我们的邮件，还是某篇报道里的引述？
Matter of fact, the buckle buckle up Buttercup was that an email to us or a quote on a story?
我记不清了
I can't remember.
那是四年前的事了
That was four years ago.
这些整天嘲讽零售业的刻薄家伙，到底多久了？
How long have these just mean spirited curmudgeons been mocking retail?
没错。
Right.
才五年？
Just five years?
十年？
Ten years?
他们总说‘再等等’，自己却坐收现金，而那些啥都不懂的普通投资者天天赚钱。
Just just wait, they say, as they sit in cash while everyday everyday know nothing investors get rich.
不过这挺有意思的。
This is interesting, though.
他们展示了杠杆ETF的资产管理规模，还给出了总额。
They show the leveraged ETF assets under management, and it shows the total.
如果看半导体板块，总额高达一千九百八十亿美元。
And if you show they show semiconductors so the total is a 198,000,000,000.
半导体已经占了其中四分之一，这简直不可思议，因为以前它们几乎可以忽略不计。
Semiconductors are already one fourth one quarter of that, which is absolutely insane because they were basically nothing before.
所以增长真的太猛了：半导体是530亿美元，科技减去半导体是760亿，其余的加起来是700亿。
So that the growth was just so semis is 53,000,000,000, tech x semis is 76,000,000,000, the other ones are 70.
这些杠杆型ETF，全都是科技股。
So these leveraged ETFs, it's all technology.
这么短的时间内就冒出这么一个新的类别，真是让人震惊。
That's pretty insane how quickly this new category can form.
对吧？
Right?
这就像是在一星期内建起一座全新的城市一样。
It's like building a brand new town in a week or something.
我下周要播出一期《Talking Wealth》的节目，嘉宾是我们在彭博的朋友詹姆斯·塞弗特。
I did a Talking Wealth episode that's coming out next week, I believe, with James Seifert, our friend at Bloomberg.
你听说过一家叫Corgi的公司吗？
Have you ever heard of a company called Corgi?
差不多吧？
Ish?
是一家新成立的ETF公司。
It's a new Can people
提一下？
mention it?
是一家新成立的ETF公司。
It's a new ETF company.
叫Comp oh，
Comp oh,
就是那个一直在收购新ETF的公司，对吧？
the one that that is, like, put bring they're acquiring all the new ETFs.
对吧？
Right?
不是。
No.
他们正在申请成百上千个产品。
They're they're filing for hundreds.
就是到处撒网，碰运气。
They're just spraying and praying.
所以他们把风投那一套打法用到了ETF领域。
So they're bringing, like, a VC style playbook to the ETF land
然后指望能碰上一个成功的。
And just hoping for a fix.
ETF现在正火。
ETFs are ETFs are having a moment.
新发的产品数量多得离谱。
The number of launches is is is insane.
我们之前已经聊过很多次这个问题了。
But so we've been we've been talking about this a lot.
两千亿美元，如果算上实际的资产敞口，差不多有五万亿。
$200,000,000,000, when you amplify that for the amount of actual exposure, it's about 500,000,000,000.
所以你才会看到这些剧烈的波动和这些奇怪的基金名字。
And that's why you're seeing these wild gyrations and these memory names.
是的。
Yeah.
你之前说IBM这种情况很少见，但以后因为这些单只股票ETF和杠杆ETF，这种情况会越来越频繁。
When you get so your whole thing about IBM being kind of like, oh, that doesn't happen very often, that's gonna happen way more in the future now because of these single stock ETFs and leveraged ETFs.
对吧？
Fair?
大概吧。
Probably.
明白。
Alright.
会更惨烈。
More of a bloodbath.
真不敢相信耐克居然丢了护城河。
I can't believe that Nike lost its moat.
耐克从高点已经跌了75%。
So Nike is down 75 from the highs.
我觉得现在价格跟2014年差不多。
I think it's at that same price it was at 2,014.
我选股票最根本的一条原则就是：别碰潮流股。
And I'm my my, like, number one rule of thumb for stock picking, never invest in fads.
比如Peloton，就是一时潮流。
Like, Peloton was a fad.
我早就觉得不对劲了，所有这种健身设备都是跟风产品。
I I sniffed that one out pretty like, every every exercise workout thing is a fad.
你上一次用Peloton是什么时候？
When's the last time you used your Peloton?
五年前？
Five years ago?
早就没用了。
No.
没有。
No.
没有。
No.
三年前。
Three years ago.
好吧。
Okay.
我真不敢相信我的还在用。
I can't believe mine.
我是2020年4月买的。
I bought it in April 2020.
现在还能用。
It's still working.
我昨晚刚用过。
I used it last night.
还在好好地用着。
Still going strong.
我五周前做过一次Peloton健身课，之后就没再碰过。
I'm so do a I did do a Peloton exercise class five weeks ago, not to break.
好的。
Okay.
干得不错。
Good job.
但看起来耐克也像其他那些短暂流行的玩意儿一样。
But it seemed Nike looks like a lot of these other fads.
露露柠檬的股价跌了80%。
So Lululemon is down 80%.
安德玛跌了84%。
Under Armour's down 84%.
盖璞跌了62%。
Gap is down 62%.
挺有意思的。
It's funny.
Gap的股价自从互联网泡沫以来就从来没恢复过。
Gap still never never recovered its price from the .com bubble.
它永远也恢复不了了。
And it never will.
再回头看看几次吧。
Come back a few times.
我觉得耐克可能要完蛋了。
I I think I think Nike might be toast.
我说的完蛋，是说它的前景，但耐克依然是我最钟爱的品牌，别的根本没法比。
And when I say toast, Nike is still my number one brand, and there's not even anything close.
我买运动装备的时候，从来不会选阿迪达斯。
Like, whenever I buy any sports attire, I I don't buy Adidas.
我其实买过茵克拉德，不过
I don't I mean, I buy Einclad, but
对我来说也是一样。
whatever It is for me too.
耐克依然是我最钟爱的品牌。
Nike's still my number one brand.
也许这就是我对这事这么惊讶的原因。
That maybe that's why I'm so shocked by this.
是啊。
It's Yeah.
看起来它已经不行了。
It seems like it's done.
但这是根据股市来看的。
But Based on the stock market.
但说实话，数据真的很差。
But, I I mean, the numbers suck.
就是，数据不好。
Like, the numbers are not good.
我知道我是个喜欢填缺口的人，52美元那里有个很大的上涨缺口，我觉得很可能会被填上。
You know I'm a big gaps get filled guy, and there was a big juicy gap up at 52 that I think probably will get filled.
不过我也说不准。
But I don't know.
现在耐克股价是43美元。
Is is so Nike's at $43.
这股票以后还能回到90美元吗？
Is the stock ever gonna trade at $90 ever again?
我也说不准。
I don't know.
我觉得不太可能。
I don't think so.
我觉得再过两三年，我们不会再讨论什么股价暴涨之类的事了。
I don't I don't think that in two or three years from now, we're gonna be talking about an amazing put the stock price aside.
我觉得我们也不会再聊耐克怎么重振雄风了。
I don't think we're gonna be talking about how Nike regained its mojo.
我们小时候那些品牌，现在好多都消失不见了。
There there are all these brands from our youth that just don't really exist anymore.
MTV和《体育画报》都是我们成长过程中特别重要的品牌。
MTV was a huge brand we grew up with, Sports Illustrated.
那个
The
最大的。
biggest.
感觉耐克也要被扔进历史垃圾堆了，我真的不敢相信。
It feels like Nike is going to be put in that dustbin for and it's I can't believe it.
这真的让我很震惊。
I really this really does shock me.
但耐克并不会消失。
Well, does it's not going away.
耐克会一直存在下去，永远都会在。
Nike will be Nike will be around for the rest of eternity.
但是
But
但股市传递的信号是，这可能是千载难逢的买入机会，可感觉又有点儿说不清道不明。
But the stock market is telling, and maybe this is, like, the buy signal of a lifetime, but it's it seems like it's like, okay.
这家公司已经不是从前的样子了，也不可能再回到过去了。
This company is they're not what they were used to be, it's not not going to be again.
耐克的业务基本面真的很糟糕。
The fundamentals of Nike's business sucks.
表现并不好。
It's not doing well.
没错。
Right.
是啊。
Yeah.
他们确实搞砸了。
They kinda blew it.
好吧。
Alright.
这还挺有意思的。
This is kinda cool.
有人发给了我们这个。
Someone sent us this.
Zuke Data 在 Twitter 上。
Zuke Data on Twitter.
我觉得他应该是个搞人工智能的。
I think he must be an AI guy.
哦，他在 Black Works 做数据分析师。
Oh, he works at data analyst at Black Works.
他说，最近到处都能听到‘泡沫’这个词。
He says, I hear the word bubble everywhere these days.
我统计了我最爱的两个投资播客里几百期节目里提到‘泡沫’的次数。
I counted every mention of bubble across hundreds of episodes from two of my favorite investing podcasts.
你能看出趋势吗？
Can you spot the trend?
所以他调出了《动物精神》《复利》和《朋友》这几档节目，看看我们提到“泡沫”这个词的频率，还做了些图表。
So he pulled up Animal Spirits The Compound and Friends and looked at how often that how often we say the word bubble, and he did some graphs in here.
2022年到2025年左右，几乎没什么人提。
And there was not much mention at all, 2022 to twenty twenty five ish.
但今年一开始，突然就爆发了。
And now to start this year, massive.
他算的是八周滚动平均值。
He's doing an eight week rolling mean.
我挺好奇他是怎么弄出来的。
I wonder how he did this.
数据显示，今年这档节目里提到泡沫的次数简直直线飙升。
Showing that the bubble talk for this show has skyrocketed this year.
不过你知道吗？
But you know what?
这也说明我们确实反映了市场上流传的那些评论。
Credit to us, we are a reflection of the market commentary that's floating around.
我们大部分时候其实是在反驳这种叙事。
We are for the most we're pushing back on the narrative.
对。
Yeah.
不过我们更像是一个同步指标。
We're a concurrent indicator, though.
我们可不是什么先行指标啊
We're not like a leading indicator.
对吧？
Right?
我们就是在聊当下的情况而已。
We're talking about what's going on.
其他人也都在讨论这些事。
Everyone else is talking about.
我们讨论正在发生的事情，但我认为这很有意思，也值得注意。
We talk about what's happening, but I think I think it is interesting and notable.
我想澄清一点。
And I wanna I wanna clarify one one thing about this.
我的观点是，这并不构成整体性的股市泡沫。
When I'm saying my opinion is that this is not a stock market bubble in general.
对吧？
Right?
我是觉得，标普500指数不太可能跌70%。
Like, I don't think the s and p 500 is gonna fall 70%.
我只能聊聊股市的情况。
I can only talk about the stock market.
至于供应链瓶颈到底怎么回事，还有算力不足的问题，我其实不太清楚。
I have no idea what's actually happening with the supply chain bottlenecks, and there's no compute.
比如光刻技术这些，我又懂多少呢？
Like, how what what do I know about lithography and this?
我确实什么都不知道。
And I know I know nothing.
我懂的跟你一样多。
I know as much as you do.
一点都不知道。
Nothing.
是的。
Yeah.
但关键是，就算那些懂行的人，也很难准确预测市场会怎么走。
But the thing is even the people who do know that stuff, they're not good at predicting what's gonna happen to the market either.
这倒是真的。
Well, that's true.
我只是想说，你其实也懂这些。
I'm just saying You knew all that stuff.
我只是想提醒观众，我们并没指望自己能告诉你们美光是不是高估了需求。
I'm just saying to the audience, like, don't I I know our audience is not counting on us to tell them that Micron is overestimating demand.
我们真不能这么做。
Like, we we can't do that.
但我没看出股市里有泡沫。
But I don't see a bubble in the stock market.
如果有人说，盈利不可持续，那才是泡沫所在。
And if people say, well, the earnings aren't sustainable, and that's where the bubble is.
喂，老兄。
Hey, dude.
市场可不这么看。
The market agrees.
市场认为他们的盈利根本撑不住。
The market is saying their earnings aren't sustainable.
我们认为这真是个不错的见解。
We think this is, a a great insight.
没错。
Right.
所以这些公司才以12倍的预期市盈率交易。
That's why these that's why these companies are trading, like, 12 times forward earnings.
这是彼得·卡勒汉从高盛的《每日趋势》发来的图表，显示半导体板块与标普500的预期市盈率差距，已经跌到了AI时代以来的最低水平。
So this chart from Peter Callahan at Goldman from Daily Treproic, the forward PE multiple gap between semis and the S and P 500 is at the lowest levels of this AI era.
市场其实早就认同了。
So the market agrees.
说这些盈利不可持续，根本不算唱反调。
It is not contrarian to say these earnings aren't sustainable.
这根本算不上什么激进的观点。
It's not that's not going out on a limb.
这其实就是市场普遍的看法。
Literally, that is consensus.
对。
Right.
如果市场给这些公司估值高达50倍预期市盈率，那我倒会觉得奇怪。
So if the market was was valuing these things at 50 times forward earnings, you'd go, okay.
这太离谱了。
This is crazy.
他们觉得这些盈利还会继续增长之类的，但市场根本不是这么想的。
They're they think these earnings are gonna continue or continue to grow or whatever, but then that's not what the market is saying.
没错。
Right.
Duality Research 有一张我们之前分享过的很棒的图表。
So Duality Research has this great chart that we've shared before.
这是关于市盈率的分布情况。
It's the distribution of forward PE ratios.
他展示了标普500成分股中，以及整个市场市值中，不同市盈率区间的公司占比。
So he shows the percentage of S and P 500 companies as well as the percentage of the overall market cap that trade in various buckets.
比如，亚历克斯说，有超过300只股票，占总市值的40%左右，其前瞻市盈率都低于20倍。
So for example, Alex says that more than 300 names, 61% or 40% of the total market cap trade for a forward p that's under 20 times.
如果你这些年一直反对科技股估值过高，那今年可真是你的好时候了。
So this is the if you've been a if you've been a portfolio manager who has railed against overpriced tech stocks for years, This better be your year.
这正是你该大力推荐选股者的时候了。
This is like this is when you pound the table on the stock pickers market.
但愿如此。
I would hope so.
对吧？
And right?
我肯定有不少人多年来一直对客户说：听好了。
Because I'm sure there are people who've said for years to their clients, listen.
我们不能投这种东西。
We can't invest in this.
大家都过度集中、过度估值，诸如此类的问题。
Everyone's invested into this over concentration, overvaluation, all this stuff.
这必须是你翻身的一年。
This has to be your year.
非得是不可。
Has to.
他还把市盈率按各个行业拆分展示出来了。
He has he also shows the four p breaking broken down by sectors.
你看看这个。
And just look at this.
大部分情况下，所有数据都呈右下趋势下降。
Basically, everything is going down to the right for the most part.
除了工业和房地产还算坚挺，其他几乎所有板块的市盈率都在下降。
Everything is compressing with the exception of, I don't know, industrials are hanging high, I suppose, and real estate, but everything for the most part, forward p's are coming in.
这跟泡沫时期的走势完全相反。
This is like the opposite of what happens in a bubble.
如果你只给我看这些图表，不告诉我市场发生了什么，我肯定会以为自己刚从六个月的昏迷中醒来，说市场已经开始反转了。
These charts make it if you just showed me these charts and didn't tell me what was going on in the market, I'd just report it from a coma six months ago, I'd say, the market is rolling over.
对。
Yeah.
可不是今年股市还涨了百分之几十呢。
Not the market is up double digits this year.
我会说，市场大概跌了百分之十二。
I'd say, oh, the market's probably down 12%.
而这一切都发生在创纪录的盈利、利润率和增长加速的背景下。
And this is happening with the backdrop of all time high earnings and margins and acceleration.
这根本不是泡沫。
Like, this is not a bubble.
别说了。
Stop it.
它可能会演变成泡沫。
It might turn into one.
但这不是现在的情况。
That's not what this is.
是的。
Yeah.
我也是这么认为的。
I tend to agree.
最难理解的是，像韩国和散户投资者这样的地方确实出现了泡沫般的迹象，但这种现象
The hard thing to square is there's bubble like behavior in places like South Korea and retail investors, but that
这种现象永远不会消失。
That will that's all that's never going away.
我觉得这就是新常态。
I think that I think that's the new normal.
如果我们经历一场长达五年、伴随经济衰退的熊市，人们亏得一无所有，那时他们才会停止投机。
If we have a five year bear market coinciding with a recession where people just lose it all, yeah, they'll stop speculating.
但等等。
But hang on.
如果没有这种情况的话。
Absent that.
如果我们遭遇一场金融危机，股市暴跌40%，那些Reddit上的散户还是会做空股票。
If we have a financial crisis that, like, the stock market falls 40%, the Reddit crowd is going to be shorting stocks.
也许吧。
Maybe.
你真觉得这不会发生吗？
You don't think that's gonna happen?
你觉得他们会
Do you think they're
一直往里冲吧，毕竟哪里有势头就往哪儿去。
just gonna keep piling in and like, they're they're gonna go where the momentum is.
你想啊
Think You
我其实不想说刚才想说的那句话。
also I I don't wanna say what I was about say.
你继续说。
Keep going.
好。
Alright.
咱们别谈泡沫了，换个话题吧。
Let's move on from the bubble talk.
我们不能再提这个词了。
We can't say it anymore.
我再念五遍，就为了提高咱们在这位的数据排名。
I'm gonna say it like five more times just to up our ranking on this guy's data.
当然了。
Of course.
泡沫 泡沫 泡沫 泡沫。
Bubble bubble bubble bubble.
好了。
Alright.
我刚才在想，这跟我的日常经济环境有什么关系。
I I was thinking about this in relation to my normal economic environment.
我知道你觉着我在逗你玩。
I know you think I'm trolling.
我只是在配合这个数据集而已。
I'm just I'm just putting out with the dataset.
为什么我们现在不再有经济衰退了？
Why don't we have recessions anymore?
现在我觉得，很多人问我这个问题，我查了国家经济研究局的数据，从1857年就开始记录了。
It feels like now a lot of people I I put this question out there, and I looked at the the National Bureau of Economic Research has it, the data going back to 1857.
我们看了每一个二十年的区间，发现过去一百年里，平均每二十年会有四到五次经济衰退。
So we looked at all these twenty year blocks of how many recessions did we have, and pretty much for a hundred years, we averaged four to five recessions every 20.
但从七十年代、八十年代初开始，情况完全颠倒了。
And since the seventies, early eighties, that has completely it's flipped.
经济衰退持续的时间变短了，严重程度也轻多了。
The recessions are shorter in months, and we have they're they're fewer in magnitude.
我们现在根本不再有经济衰退了。
We don't have recessions anymore.
有些人说，这十年之所以没出现衰退，是因为财政赤字、政府支出和货币政策起了作用。
Now some people say, well, the reason we don't have recessions this decade is because fiscal deficits and government spending and monetary policy.
但我觉得，如果这些东西真能让我们彻底避开衰退，那也值了。
And I would say, if that stuff stopped us from having recessions anymore, it's worth it.
我知道，这显然不是我们不再经历衰退的唯一原因。
And I know that's obviously not the only reason that we don't have recessions anymore.
你不可能说完全没有影响。
You couldn't you couldn't possibly say no.
这怎么可能没有作用呢？
That has no impact.
当然有影响。
Of course, does.
政策制定者已经学会了更好地管理经济，这真是件好事。
Policymakers have figured out how to manage the economy better, and that's a wonderful thing.
我们现在经历的衰退，比过去少多了。
We don't have recessions anymore as much as we used to.
你知道比尔·西蒙斯有时候会说，我不太清楚勒布朗拿过几次MVP。
You know how Bill Simmons will sometimes say, how does, like I don't know many MVPs LeBron has.
但咱们不妨想想，勒布朗怎么就只有三个MVP呢？
But let's just say, how does LeBron only have three MVPs?
对吧？
Right?
我当时就想，不如放大看看。
And I was like, well, zoom in.
咱们一年一年地看，到底哪一年他被亏待了？
Let's let's actually look at it year by year and say, like, which year was he robbed?
然后这么来评估一下。
And then let's assess it that way.
所以回答你的问题，我也想做类似的事。
So to answer your question, I wanna do something similar.
肯定是2022年。
Oh, 2022 for sure.
那年本来该是经济衰退的。
That should have been a recession.
那年绝对该是经济衰退的。
Should have been totally should have been a recession.
但咱们还是得细看。
But so so zoom in.
2010年金融危机之后的这十年。
The 2010 post GFC decade.
很明显，我们刚从大萧条以来最严重的衰退中走出来。
Obviously, we were coming out of the worst recession since the Great Depression.
对吧？
Right?
当时消费者、资产负债表、政府、企业，所有人都在慢慢恢复，至少花了三到五年时间。
So consumers, balance sheets, governments, corporations, everybody was healing, and it probably took three to five years after that, at least.
是的。
Yeah.
但2011年，人人都说会出现二次衰退，欧洲债务危机会把我们拖进新一轮衰退。
But 2011, everyone and their brother said, double dip recession, Europe, the European debt crisis, this is going to drag us into another recession.
当时到处都在这么说。
Like, everyone was saying that.
是的。
Yeah.
2011年。
Thousand eleven.
那会儿确实如此。
That was Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
但在我看来，那还是金融危机之后的阶段。
But we were to me, like, that was still post GFC.
大家都把它归到金融危机后的时期里。
That gets lumped in with post GFC.
那时候离金融危机没过去多久。
That was not that far removed.
是吧。
Was
是的。
Yeah.
你说得对。
You're right.
那差不多就是大萧条之后的1937年那种情况。
That would be like 1937 after the Great Depression kind of thing.
没错。
Right.
完全是一回事。
Same same thing.
然后是移动云超大规模服务商，那个叫什么来着？斯科特·考利的那本书？
And then the mobile cloud hyperscaler mag what was Scott Cowley's book?
四骑士。
The the four horsemen.
科技巨头们把我们拉了出来。
Like, the tech giants dragged us out.
我说的‘我们’，指的是股市和它让人民变富的过程。
And when I say us, I mean the stock market and making people rich with it.
是科技巨头把我们从那场危机里拉了出来。
The tech giants dragged us out of that.
我觉得，技术确实是如今经济衰退比以前少得多的原因之一。
Well, I I think technology is definitely one of the reasons that we don't have as many recessions anymore.
我觉得……
Well, I think
现在的经济比过去高效多了。
The economy is more efficient than it used to be.
科技股已经把美国变成了一个股市，而股市又驱动着整个经济。
The the technology stocks have turned have turned The United States Of America into the stock market, and the stock market fuels everything.
后来经济放缓了，疫情当然也是因素，但财政刺激阻止了衰退。
So then we had a slowdown, pandemic obviously, fiscal stimulus, that stopped the recession.
2022年通胀和利率飙升，要不是有AI，我们真会陷入衰退。
2022, inflation, interest rates, we genuinely would have had a recession if it were not for AI.
如果ChatGPT没有出现
If Chad GBT did not come onto the scene
我不这么认为。
I don't believe that.
我百分之百
I a 100%
相信这一点。
believe that.
虽然救活了股市，但当时的消费力度还不够，没能阻止经济衰退。
Saved the stock market, but there wasn't enough spending then to stop a recession.
不可能的事。
No way.
是股市救了股市，也救了整个经济。
The stock market saved the stock market saved the economy.
我百分之百相信这一点。
I a 100% believe that.
不是。
No.
主要是财富效应起了作用。
It was really the wealth effect.
大家把低利率的贷款都锁定了。
People had locked in low interest rates.
他们修复了自己的资产负债表。
They they repaired their balance sheets.
这就是我们没陷入衰退的原因。
That's why we didn't have a recession.
当时在ChatGPT上的投入根本不足以阻止衰退。
There there was not enough spending on ChatGPT to cause a nonrecession then.
不可能。
No way.
这确实是其中很大的一个因素。
That's that's a huge part of it.
但股市反弹是因为中国央行推动了股市回升。
But the stock market rebounding because the China GBP called the stock market to rebound.
如果股市没有反弹，我们今天所处的局面就会完全不同。
If there was no rebound in the stock market, we would be in a way different place today than we were in
2023年。
2023.
关键在于这一点。
Here's the point.
现在总是有各种因素，其中很多都是政策驱动的。
It's always something now, and a lot of it is policy.
我觉得，最主要的一点是，现在的经济规模和成熟度都比过去高多了。
Like, I think we've just the one thing, the economy is bigger and more mature than it was.
十九世纪的时候，我们还是个新兴市场，自然会有更多繁荣与衰退。
Like, we were an emerging market back in the nineteenth century, so, of course, there was more booms and busts.
那时候我们主要是工业经济，靠的是厂房、设备、折旧、库存这些东西，而现在已经是服务型经济了。
We were more of an industrial economy, so it was like plant and equipment and depreciation and like, right, like, that inventory and all this stuff, and now it's a service based economy.
所以这也是一个重要因素。
So that's that's a big part it too.
我们的经济结构更加多元化了。
We just we we're more diversified.
也更具活力。
We're more dynamic.
但政策制定者和一些人并不喜欢这样。
But policymakers and some people hate this.
有些人巴不得经济陷入衰退。
Some people want the doomers to want a recession.
我都不想给这些人任何关注。
I don't even wanna give those people any oxygen.
你说‘一些人’，其实就是指那些人。
When you say some people, it's like, yeah.
只是少数评论员罢了。
It's a few pundits.
而且，只有不到百分之一的人希望整个系统崩溃。
And, like, less than 1% of the population wants everything to blow up.
这些蠢货根本不值得我们花时间搭理。
These are morons that don't deserve our airtime.
我本来以为这种人早就消失了，结果我被@了这条推文好几次。
I kinda thought we'd got rid of these people, but so I got tagged on this tweet a million times.
有个推特用户说，如果你把标普500指数除以美联储的资产负债表，这条线从2008年以来基本就是平的。
So this guy on Twitter says, if we divide the S and P 500 by the Fed's balance sheet, the line has basically flat since 2008.
我也这么看。
I do too.
好多人跑来跟我说，嘿。
So many people said, hey.
你能聊聊这个吗？
Can you please address this?
还有人说，嘿。
And someone said, hey.
这看起来就像一篇博客文章。
This this seems like a blog post to me.
这人说的其实有道理，但我真不敢相信还有人信这个。
What this guy what this guy is saying seems true, and I can't believe people still believe this.
我只是想简单澄清一下。
I just thought I'd address it really quick.
行。
Fine.
那条推文怎么说的？
What's the tweet?
他把图表停在了2024年，但如果你从2024年往后看，这个相关性就没了。
The guy stopped the chart in 2024, and if you if you go forward from 2024, the the correlation goes away.
美联储的资产负债表其实已经收缩了。
So the Fed the Fed's balance sheet has actually contracted Can
我们能先停一下吗？
we just stop?
2024年。
2024.
别说了。
Stop.
别说了。
Stop.
自2024年以来，美联储的资产负债表实际上已经收缩了。
So the Fed's balance sheet has literally contracted since 2024.
2023年也在收缩，但股市却一路高涨。
2023 contracted too, and the stock market is booming.
我觉得人们都忘了，美联储在2022年真的试图把经济拖入衰退，把利率从零直接抬到5%。
I don't I don't I think people forget that the Fed literally tried to put us in a recession in 2022 by taking rates from zero to 5%.
你太纠结于美联储的资产负债表了，怪不得你觉得股市没达到你预期的水平。
Obsessed with the Fed's balance sheet and for why the stock market isn't where you think it should be.
你脾气很暴躁，事情也不顺心。
You're an angry person, and things are not going well.
对不起。
I'm sorry.
对。
Yes.
我不希望这样。
I don't want to this.
没错，但还有另一个原因说明经济为何依然强劲。
Right except for so here's another reason why things remain strong.
这是来自Torch和Slack的数据。
This is from Torch and Slack.
失业率已经连续创下新纪录，长时间低于美联储4.5%的NAIRU预估水平。
Unemployment has been below the Fed's 4.5% NAIRU estimate for a record time period.
连续57个月，失业率都保持在5%以下。
Fifty seven months in a row, the unemployment rate has been under 5%.
如果撇开疫情那段特殊时期——那时候很多人失业，但领的失业救济金有时比上班还多——实际上，失业率低于5%的状态已经持续了将近十年。
And if you take away that COVID period, which was kind of this fake thing because people lost their jobs, yes, but they were being paid sometimes more from unemployment insurance, like, we've had below 5% unemployment for almost a decade, essentially.
对吧？
Right?
把疫情那段去掉，那段不算数。
Take away the COVID period, which kinda doesn't count.
这就是经济一直这么强劲的原因之一。
That's one of the reasons things have remained so strong.
我问你个问题。
Let me ask you this.
人们有工作，有工作就会花钱。
People have jobs, and they're going to spend if they have a job.
未来三十年，这种衰退更少的趋势还会持续吗？
Over the next thirty years, will this trend remain in place of fewer recessions?
是的。
Yes.
我们看到的将是，经济不会像以前那样衰退，当然，信贷周期迟早会来，但主要会是外部冲击。
We're looking at, like and they're not going to be economic I mean, sure, there's going to a credit cycle eventually, but it's going to be more exogenous shocks.
不会是那种
It's not going to be,
严重的状况。
like, critical.
我们不是说完全没有衰退，这显然不可能。
We're not saying no recessions, obviously.
衰退还是会有的。
There will be recessions.
经济周期是客观存在的。
The business cycle exists.
就像自然规律一样无法改变。
Immutable force of nature.
但
But
不会。
No.
但你还在用过去八十年的老套路，将来肯定会出错。
But but but you're using the playbook from the previous eighty years, you're gonna be wrong in the future.
你肯定会错。
You just are.
这这
It's it's
现在的环境完全不一样了。
a totally different environment now.
好吧。
Alright.
咱们聊聊科技领域吧。
Let's talk about technology world.
好的。
Okay.
这是《华盛顿邮报》上的内容。
This is from The Washington Post.
很多人在社交媒体上转发了这条消息。
A bunch of people were posting this on social media.
我觉得挺有意思的。
I thought it was interesting.
现在在科技行业工作一定特别奇怪，因为你看到有些人拿到的不是普通的改变人生的财富，而是直接多到能买下一整支球队的钱。
It has to be very weird to work in the technology industry right now because you're seeing certain people get, like, not just life changing amounts of money, but, like, certain individuals are getting, like, by a sports team amounts of money.
简直太离谱了。
It's, like, it's insane.
而其他人每天上班都心想：天哪，我什么时候才能轮到？
And other people are every day going into work going, oh my gosh.
科技行业不会一直这样下去的，他们肯定是第一个被波及的。
When am I gonna get because the tech industry is not going to they're gonna be the first ones.
他们可是第一道防线，对吧？
They're the first line of they're the first line of defense, like, right?
他们管这叫什么来着？在《勇敢的心》里？
They're in the what do they call it in in, like, Braveheart?
就是那些 frontline 的人，你知道吧？
Like, the people of the first line, you know?
那些人很可能会被干掉。
Like, those guys are probably gonna get killed.
他们会像被那根飞速滚过来的巨大木头碾过去一样，还有满天的箭。
They're gonna get rolled rolled over by that big log thing that rolls really fast, you know, and all the arrows.
科技公司的高管们根本不会对员工有半点同情。
The tech CEOs are not gonna have any, like, sympathy for their employees.
只要能用 AI 替代他们的工作，他们立马就干。
They're if they can replace their job with AI, they're going to.
所以现在这地方真是怪得不行。
So it has to be a very weird place to work.
你可能明天就拿到改变人生的巨款，也可能明天就被裁了。
Like, you could get a life changing amount of money, you could get out of a job tomorrow.
《华盛顿邮报》
So the Washington Post
我认识的人里，真没几个在这行干的。
did I this thing don't I don't have a I have very few people in my life that work in this world.
对。
Yeah.
他们采访了一大帮人。
I'm just so they they interviewed a bunch of these people.
他们说，那些一心要赢下AI竞赛的科技公司和领导层，已经把程序员、律师和人力资源这些员工推到了转型的最前线。
It has to be so they said that tech companies, leaders obsessed with winning the AI race have tasked their workforces of coders, lawyers, and HR professionals becoming the frontline of the transformation.
他们被考核的标准是，看他们能不能在看着同事一波接一波被裁掉的同时，迅速把自己的工作自动化掉。
They're being measured by how quickly they can automate their own jobs while watching their colleagues get pushed out in successive waves of layoffs.
所以他们说，自2022年以来，已经有80万科技行业的员工被裁了。
So they said 800,000 tech workers have laid off since 2022.
不过话说回来，这其中很大一部分是因为之前招得太多了，反正就是各种因素吧。
Now, again, a lot of that is over hiring, whatever.
所以他们发了一篇报道，讲的是一个31岁的旧金山科技初创公司员工，她不想透露名字。
So they they posted this one thing about there's this 31 year old tech startup worker in San Francisco, didn't wanna say her name.
她说，几个月前，她当工程主管的丈夫告诉她，必须把全部精力投入到适应人工智能上，要求她独自承担起照顾他们学龄前女儿的全部育儿责任。
She said that her engineering manager husband told her a few months ago that he needed to focus all his energy on becoming AI native and requested that she take on almost all parenting responsibilities for the couple's preschool aged daughter.
她照做了，还提到这件事感觉特别不真实，很怪异。他们夫妻俩的年收入加起来有五十万美元，生活其实挺不错的。
She complied, and she talks about how this is, like, surreal and it's weird, and they have a combined income of like a $500,000, so they're doing pretty good.
但他们说买不起房子，让我觉得好笑的是，网上很多人对这事反应特别激烈。
But they're saying they can't get a house, and it's funny to me that a lot of people on the Internet were up in arms about this.
有个人说，他不是不想帮忙，只是要把全部精力都放在工作上。
Like, this guy said he's not you know, he's gonna focus all his energy on his job.
上世纪九十年代以前，这种生活状态根本没什么稀奇。
Pre nineteen nineties, this was just life.
是啊。
Yeah.
这说的是真的吗？
Is this a joke?
这是反乌托邦吧？
Dystopia?
我们说的是一个31岁、有个两岁孩子的夫妻，其中一方拼命工作？
We're talking about a 31 year old couple with a two year old where one of the spouses is working hard?
天啊，真是服了。
I just Oh my god.
这就是生活啊。
Life.
从很多方面来看，这其实反映了现在人们的思维方式，算是一种进步。
This is a sign of progress in many ways, that that this is the way that people think now.
因为再说一遍，
Because, again
她把这种经历形容成像在做梦一样？
She described her experience as surreal?
不过他要是真这么干，至少也该从OpenAI拿点股份吧。
He better get some shares out of this or something, though, from OpenAI.
但我也在想，会不会这 guy 其实每天躲在桌子底下打盹，累得不行，因为家里有个小宝宝？
But also, I think what if this guy is secretly taking naps under his desk because he's tired from having a toddler?
先抛个想法出来。
Throwing that out there.
我能说句心里话吗？
Can I say one thing?
我们是不是被套路了？
Are we getting got?
这该不会是网上编出来的吧？
Is this, like, manufactured by the Internet?
这是不是一场精心策划、作者和编辑都清楚会爆红的三小时访谈？
Is this a three hour interview that was put together in a way that the author, editors knew it would go viral?
我挺确定的
I'm pretty sure
我听到的也是这个意思。
that's what I'm hearing.
算是其中一部分原因吧。
Part of it.
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