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本期节目由富达投资赞助播出。
This message is brought to you by Fidelity Investments.
当时机至关重要时，你需要强大的工具和研究，能够随时为你提供支持。
When timing is everything, you need powerful tools and research that can meet you in the moment.
全新的富达交易者Plus平台，让你的图表和偏好设置在所有设备上保持一致并同步，无论何时何地交易，都能快速连接。
With the all new Fidelity Trader Plus platform, your charts and preferences show up consistently, synced up across all your devices, so you connect fast whenever and wherever you're trading.
你可以在家里的台式机上保存订单，在上班时收到手机提醒，然后通过富达应用完成交易，无需重新开始。
You can save an order on your desktop at home, get a mobile alert when you're at work, and complete the trading with Fidelity app without starting over.
而且，通过可下载的富达交易者Plus桌面平台，你可以获得更多控制权，包括多显示器视图、增强的工具和自定义选项，以及与富达交易专家的集成屏幕共享功能。
And with a downloadable Fidelity Trader Plus desktop platform, you have more control with multi monitor views, enhanced tools and customization options, and integrated screen sharing with Fidelity trading specialists.
请访问fidelity.com/traderplus，体验富达迄今为止最强大的交易平台。
Try Fidelity's most powerful trading platform yet at fidelity.com/traderplus.
富达投资与The Compound并无关联。
Fidelity Investments and The Compound are not affiliated.
所讨论的观点、意见、产品、服务和策略均未得到富达投资的认可或推广。
Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments.
Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC，纽约证券交易所会员，SIPC成员。
Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC member NYSE SIPC.
本期节目由Federated Hermes赞助播出。
This episode is brought to you by Federated Hermes.
主动型ETF正在改变投资组合的构建方式，为顾问们提供了更大的灵活性来服务客户。
Active ETFs are changing the way portfolios are built, giving advisors more flexibility for their clients.
但并非所有ETF都是一样的。
But not all ETFs are built the same.
Federated Hermes对其主动型ETF中的投资进行严格的筛选流程，模拟各种市场情景，确保只有最优秀的投资才能脱颖而出。
Federated Hermes puts the investments in their active ETFs through a ruthless vetting process, gaming out a wide range of market scenarios so only the strongest survive.
结果如何？
The result?
一套包含12只主动型ETF的产品线，覆盖整个股票和债券市场。
A suite of 12 active ETFs spanning the full stock and bond market.
无论你是将它们作为核心配置还是战术性配置，都能以便捷的ETF形式获得你想要的策略。
Whether you use them as core building blocks or tactical allocations, you'll get the strategies you want in a convenient ETF wrapper.
简单来说，Federated Hermes 的主动型 ETF 能帮你构建经得起时间考验的投资组合，因为它们已经经过了严格的筛选。
Simply put, Federated Hermes has the active ETFs to help you build portfolios designed to last because they've been vetted for it.
访问 federatedhermes.com 查看完整产品线。
Explore the full lineup at federatedhermes.com.
ETF 存在风险，可能损失价值。
ETFs are subject to risk and may lose value.
Federated Securities Corp 为分销商。
Federated Securities Corp distributor.
投资前，请仔细考虑基金的投资目标、风险、收费和费用。
Before investing, carefully consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses.
请阅读招股说明书或摘要招股说明书中的这些信息及更多内容，可在 federatedhermes.com 获取。
Read this and more information in the prospectus or summary prospectus available at federatedhermes.com.
欢迎收听《动物精神》节目，我是迈克尔和本。
Welcome to animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.
迈克尔，你是巨人队的球迷吗？
Michael, are you a Giants fan?
长时间的停顿。
Long pause.
本，我知道，我知道，我知道，不。
Ben, I know I know I know nope.
有……
There's...
你知道吗？
You know what?
我本来想说没人在乎。
I was gonna say nobody cares.
有11个听众会在乎……
There's 11 people listening that are gonna care...
他们会笑我接下来要说的话。
That are gonna laugh at what I'm about to say.
是的。
Yes.
我是巨人队的球迷。
I'm a Giants fan.
已经
It's been
我简直……
I can't...
给听众们说一下，迈克尔从头到脚穿了一身巨人队的装备。
For people who are listening, Michael's just decked out in head to toe Giants gear.
我们已经十多年没有单独领跑了。
It's been over a decade since we were alone in first place.
所以我犯了一个大忌。
So I I committed a cardinal sin.
亚利桑那红雀队，双关语，我想是吧。
The Arizona cardinals, pun intended, I suppose.
其实不是故意的。
Well, unintended, actually.
亚利桑那红雀队让两分半，对阵我的巨人队。
The Arizona cardinals were favored two and a half points against my giants.
巨人队不是一支好球队。
Giants are not a good football team.
说实话，我以为红雀队会赢我们。
To be honest, I thought the cardinals were gonna beat us.
他们也不怎么样，但至少还算靠谱。
They're not good either, but they're competent.
所以我那天最大的一注，本，是五队串关。
So my biggest bet of the day, Ben, for five team teaser.
真丢人。
Shame on me.
但我一路把他们都抬上去了。
But I teased them all the way up.
就是，一路抬上去。
Like, all the way up.
非常保守。
Very conservative.
那个五队串关，赔率大概是一赔一点三。
The five team teaser was, like, a plus one thirty.
我说，我觉得红雀队本来可能赢我们，但我们不可能赢他们超过九分半，对吧？
I said, I think the Cardinals could've beat us, but we're not gonna beat them by more than nine and a half points, are we?
绝对不可能。
No fucking way.
我是说……
I mean...
我不知道有没有人看到巨人队比赛的最后时刻。
And I don't know if anybody saw the end of the Giants game.
我猜你们大多数人都没看。
I'm guessing most of you didn't.
但巨人队当时领先三分……
But the Giants were up by three point...
不管具体是多少。
Whatever it was.
巨人队领先三分。
The Giants were by three
所以最后时刻有个抄截回攻达阵。
So point there was a pick six at the end of that
屏幕显示，在时钟归零时有个抄截回攻达阵。
screen There was a pick six with zero seconds on the clock.
零秒。
Zero seconds.
德昂泰·班克斯只需要跑出界或者倒地，这通常都会发生。
All Deontay Banks had to do was go out of bounds or go down, which normally happens.
那样就能保住我周末最大的一笔投注。
It would have preserved my biggest bet of the weekend.
真丢人。
Shame on me.
好。
K.
都怪我，不该提起那个话题，让你聊你的赌注。
Shame on me for opening up that can of worms there and letting you talk about your bets.
我可能本来打算憋着不说的，但我实在忍不住。
I probably was I probably was just gonna keep it in, but I I I couldn't help it.
痛苦……
Misery had...
我的痛苦需要……
My misery needs to it needs
那是一种情绪对冲，因为你是第一队，所以你不能抱怨那个。
to That's an emotional hedge because you're team one, so you can't complain about that.
它们互相抵消了。
It cancels each other out.
你没事的。
You're fine.
我没事。
I'm okay.
《经济学人》说，极速资本主义时代已经来临。
From The Economist, the era of speedball capitalism has dawned.
我喜欢这个说法。
I like this.
所以我……
So I...
我长期以来一直关注的一个话题就是，一切都在加速。
One of my things that I've been on for a long time now is just everything is getting faster.
好。
Alright.
我想给你读一下这段开头，因为我觉得写得特别好。
I wanna read you this opening paragraph here because I think this is really good.
我读到这段的时候，心里就想，哦，对。
I read this and I go, oh, yeah.
每次有大事发生，我们都觉得这会是市场的一个信号。
Every time something big happens, we think it's gonna be like a signal of something in the market.
就是这次了。
This is it.
这就是见顶的迹象。
This is the sign of the top.
每个人都想这样。
Everyone wants to.
过去一年，美国市场消化了有史以来最大的首次公开募股——SpaceX，还有上市公司谷歌或外国公司SK海力士筹集的股权。
In the past year, American markets have digested the largest ever initial public offering, SpaceX, equity raised by a public company, Google, or foreign firm, SK Hynix.
不好意思。
I'm sorry.
这些巨头已经糟糕太久了。
The giants have been so bad for so long.
我有一堆装备在我那该死的衣柜里塞了三年了。
I have all this gear that's been stuck in my fucking closet for three years.
你现在就像《飞越未来》里的汤姆·汉克斯一样。
You're like Tom Hanks on Big right now.
就像这件Nifty Starter夹克。
Like this Nifty Starter jacket.
好吧。
Alright.
抱歉。
Sorry.
对不起。
I'm sorry.
不好意思打断这个节目的节奏。
Sorry to interrupt the flow of this show.
你继续。
Go on.
不。
No.
那件夹克真的很好看。
That's that's really great looking jacket.
OpenAI的私募融资轮，博通的私募债务交易，还有历史上最大规模的债券发行——亚马逊。
Private funding round OpenAI, private debt deal Broadcom, as well as most of the biggest bond issue in history, Amazon.
还有首个万亿美元规模的交易所交易基金，也就是ETF，来自先锋领航；伯克希尔·哈撒韦创纪录的现金储备；英伟达的股票回购计划；以及电子艺界史上最大规模的杠杆收购交易完成。
There was the first $1,000,000,000,000 exchange traded fund or ETF Vanguard, record breaking cash pile, Berkshire Hathaway, stock buyback program, NVIDIA, and consummation of the largest ever leveraged buyout deal, Electronic Arts.
我之前没意识到是这样。
I didn't realize that was the case.
此外，铁路、公用事业和媒体领域还有大规模的并购，其中媒体领域的并购本周促成了史上最大规模的高收益债券发行，打破了上周才创下的纪录。
Then there are enormous mergers in railways, utilities, and media, the last of which led this week to the largest ever junk bond offering, beating a record set only last week.
新市场凭空出现，或者变得更大。
New markets have been created out of thin air or become much bigger.
对大规模企业丑闻和对冲基金爆仓的担忧，过去会占据投资者数月注意力，现在却被美国金融这台 relentless、包罗万象、极其灵活的机器碾压过去，这就是“极速资本主义”。
Worries about massive corporate scandals and hedge fund blowups, which would have once occupied investors' attention for months, are steamrolled by the relentless totalizing an extraordinarily flexible machine that is American finance, Speedball capitalism.
我觉得这话说得很好，因为每次发生这种事，总会有人说“哎呀，糟糕了”。
I thought this was very well put because every time every time one of these things happen, someone goes, uh-oh.
就是这样。
That's it.
好吧。
Fine.
那是……
That was...
这标志着某种趋势。
This is sign of something.
你在这个领域已经很久了。
You've been on this beat for a long time.
真是佩服你。
Credit to you.
现在事情就是这样。
This is just the way things are now.
市场正在……
Markets are...
现在一切都变得更大了。
Everything is bigger now.
所有东西都跟市场挂钩，而且变化速度更快了。
Everything is part of the markets, and things move faster.
当有什么值得担心的事情出现时，我们只是……
And when there is something to worry about, we just...
我们担心一个星期，然后就继续往前走了。
We worry about it for one week and then we move on.
想想SpaceX吧。
Think about SpaceX.
它当时是最大的新闻，大概持续了两三个星期吧。
It was the biggest story for, I don't know, two or three weeks.
我们最后一次听到有人谈论SpaceX是什么时候？
When's the last time we've heard anyone talk about SpaceX?
今天终于又提起来了。
It finally today.
它又回到了IPO的价格。
It round tripped back to the IPO price.
所以我们经历了所有这些，我
So we had all that I'm
你提到这个真是太好了。
so glad you mentioned this.
SpaceX不在讨论范围内，但很高兴你提起来，因为
SpaceX wasn't in the dock, and I'm glad you brought it up because
我在我们开始之前稍微提了一下。
I I put it in here a little bit just before we got it.
好的。
It Alright.
所以价格又回到了原点。
So Price round tripped.
当价格下跌时，我们谈了很多。
We spoke a lot about it when the price is going down.
哦，不。
Oh, no.
解锁。
The unlock.
哦，不。
Oh, no.
它就会怎样怎样怎样怎样。
It's gonna blah blah blah blah blah.
现在它又回到1.70美元了，我知道我们在讨论这个，但谁在乎呢？
And now that it's back at $1.70, I know we're talking about it, but who cares?
我们只谈坏事。
We only talk about bad things.
所以那个……
So the one...
那个……
The...
显然，现在大家担心的就是AI正在吞噬一切。
Obviously, the the worry now is just AI is just consuming everything.
所以这是我们更多在思考的问题。
So this is what we're thinking more.
你知道那个直接的形式吗？
Do you know the straight up form?
它还是关闭的吗？
Was it still closed?
是吗？
Is it?
我最近都没怎么关注我的追踪器了。
I haven't followed my tracker lately.
可能还有一个人一直在手动追踪那些船。
There was probably one guy who's been tracking the ships by hand.
那个摩根大通的人说的，等等。
From the JPMorgan guy Hold on.
我知道你在说那条路的事，但这就像是……
I know you're sweeping down to the road, but this is like the...
你说得对，这是这十年里的大事件之一，但没人关心。
To your point, this this is one of the big stories of the decade, and nobody cares.
我也不确定，但确实没人关心。
I don't I don't know, but not nobody cares.
但还有另一件事。
But Here's the other thing, though.
他们……
They're...
因为这件事发生了，他们会想出某种办法，让这不再是未来的担忧。
Like, because this happened, they're gonna figure out some sort of pipeline to make this not be a worry anymore in the future.
所以，这件事的发生意味着未来不会再发生。
So, like, the fact that this event happened means it won't happen again in the future.
未来它不会成为那么大的担忧。
It won't be as big of a worry in the future.
他们不可能再让一小块土地把整个全球地缘政治什么的都绑架了。
There's no way they're gonna let little piece of land take the whole global geopolitic everything hostage again.
这不可能发生。
It's not gonna happen.
听我说完。
Hear me out.
我不是能源专家。
I'm no energy expert.
我也不是科学家或宇航员，在这方面。
I'm no scientist or astronaut for that case.
太空中的管道。
Pipelines in space.
好吧。
Alright.
那就干吧。
Let's do it.
现在AI已经占标普500的53%了，他们按超大规模数据中心、半导体、硬件、电力和软件来分类。
AI is now 53% of the S and P 500, so they break it out by hyperscalers, semiconductors, hardware, power, and software.
显然，所有这些股票都在大幅上涨。
And all these stocks are having massive gains, obviously.
好的。
Okay.
美联储就在我这边。
The Feet is on my corner.
上周，他们说，听着。
Last week, said, listen.
股市有……
The stock market has the...
它确实有。
It it has it.
如果它想承受，它可以承受更高的利率，然后说，行。
If it wants to take it, it can take higher rates and say, fine.
我们打算抛售。
We're gonna sell off.
所以美联储把这个放进了历史……
So the Feet put this into historical...
我说过，历史上每次发生这种情况，结果都是那样。
I said every time this has happened historically, that's what what it was.
较高的利率有点像戳破泡沫的那根针。
Higher rates kinda was the the pin in the bubble.
所以他们看二十年代的铁路和公用事业，还有日本和互联网泡沫以及页岩油，然后说股票先见顶，资本开支随后跟上。
So they look at the railways and the utilities in the nineteen twenties in Japan and a .com bubble and shale, and they say that stocks roll over first, capex follows.
所以他们说股市往往提前见顶。
So they say the stock market tends to peak early.
股市能嗅到这些苗头，先掉头，然后几个月后，资本开支最终放缓。
The stock market sniffs this stuff out, rolls over, and then a few months later, capex eventually slows down.
我能稍微换个说法吗？或者，可以吗？
Can I just kind of rephrase that a little bit or Yes?
再加上这个？
Add to it?
我不太确定……
I don't...
我觉得这可能是股市提前察觉到了，但我觉得实际上是有因果关系的。
I think it's a combination of maybe the stock market sniffing it out, but I think it's actually causal.
然后股市下跌，迫使这些公司放缓投资。
And then the stock market rolls over, forcing these companies to slow down.
对。
Yes.
这是个好观点……
That's a good point...
说得好。
Way to put it.
所以《纽约时报》有篇报道。
So The New York Times had this piece.
他们说高利率并没有减缓人工智能的繁荣。
They say higher interest rates aren't slowing the AI boom.
这对美联储来说是个问题。
That's a problem for the Fed.
他们基本上是在重复我上周说的内容。
And they're kinda going over what I said last week.
我当时说，如果这些公司规模太大，根本不在乎高利率呢？
I said, well, what if these companies are just so big, they don't care about higher rates?
所以他们引用了巴克莱的一位人士的话。
So they they quoted a guy from Barclays here.
他说，美联储面临的问题是，美国经济通常有一个内在的修正机制，当利率上升时，经济中对利率敏感的部分，尤其是住房，会大幅放缓。
He said the problem for the Fed is that there is usually a built in correction mechanism in The US economy, which interest rates rise, at some point, the rate sensitive parts of the economy led by housing slow down hard.
然后这会传导到经济的其他部分。
And then that that propagates the rest of the economy.
但如果经济中很大一部分对利率不那么敏感，而这部分正是推动经济增长加快的原因，那么美联储不幸地不得不去伤害那些对利率更敏感的经济部门。
But if a large part of the economy is just less rate sensitive and that is what is pushing the economy to grow faster, then the Fed unfortunately has to hurt the part of the economy that is more rate sensitive.
所以问题是……
So the question is...
我觉得这就是大家常说的。
I I feel like this is what people always say.
嗯，它太大了。
Well, it's it's too big.
美联储做不了什么……
The the Fed can't do any...
利率动不了这个行业。
Interest rates can't touch this sector.
但你说得对，市场可以。
But to your point, the markets can.
所以如果市场对这些公司说不。
So if the markets tell these companies, no.
利率更高了。
Rates are higher.
有一个更高的门槛利率。
There's a higher hurdle rate.
我们会把钱投到别处。
We're gonna put our money elsewhere.
我们不会再以这些水平给你债务，那么市场就能迫使他们采取行动，不管科技公司的CEO们怎么说。
We're not gonna give you the debt anymore at these levels, then the market can force their hand no matter what the tech CEOs say.
对吧？
Correct?
就像，是的。
Like, the Yeah.
市场现在是掌舵者。
The the market the market is the captain now.
如果说利率不能减缓这个，我会非常谨慎地对待这种立场。
To say that rates can't slow this, I'd be very careful with that stance.
我会抛弃这种立场，把它冲进马桶里。
I will I will throw that stance out and flush it down the toilet.
这太离谱了。
That's insane.
他们不能吗？
They can't?
哦，真的吗？
Oh, really?
9%都不行？
9% can't?
那不会改变风险偏好？
That that won't change risk appetite?
当然会。
Of course, it will.
而且如果，而且
And if and
但是，对。
it But Yeah.
我们一直在说，比如，什么时候，怎么，哪里，那个吓人的家伙到底在哪里？
We've been we've been saying, like, when, how, where is where is the boogeyman?
那个针扎一样的痛会从哪里来？
Where is the where is the pinprick going to come from?
我们之前提过的一个可能性是，投资者会放弃参与债务发行。
And one of the things that we have thrown out as a potential is that investors will walk away from the neck from a debt offering.
他们就会直接说，好吧。
They will just say, alright.
Meta想借300亿美元，结果投资者都不来。
Meta wants to borrow $30,000,000,000 and investors don't show up.
那会怎么样？
Well, what?
派拉蒙刚刚进入市场，想借520亿美元的债务。
Paramount just came to market looking for $52,000,000,000 in debt.
你知道最后来了多少钱吗？
You know how much money showed up?
回到我的团队，那里就是有超多的钱。
Getting back to my team that there's just so much fucking money.
一千五百亿美元。
A $150,000,000,000.
你猜怎么着，派拉蒙和华纳兄弟？
And guess what, Paramount Warner Brothers?
那就是……
That's...
那正好赶上电影史上可能最大的票房惨败的那个周末。
That that that coincides with the weekend of the biggest box office flop maybe in the history of of of movies.
我们可不想聊那个。
We're not gonna talk about that.
哦，我们可不想聊，别说出他的名字。
Oh, we're gonna talk Don't about be spurt his name.
我们稍后在节目里会聊到迪克。
We're gonna talk about Dick later in the show.
但是，是的，问题是这些公司可能不会有钱进来，也许有一天会有，但不是今天。
But but, yeah, the the idea that there is that there is not going to be money showing up for these companies, maybe someday, not today.
所以，人们可能会反驳说……
So the the the thing people would the counterpoint would be...
我这里还放了一份摩根大通的报告。
I put another one from JPMorgan in here.
如果你看经济，这是GDP的份额、就业，然后是股市的百分比。
If you look at the economy, so it's the share of GDP, employment, and then the stock market percentages.
科技股占了股市的50%，但在其他经济领域，这个比例远远达不到。
And technology makes up 50% of the stock market, and it's not even close to that for the rest of the economy.
这有点好笑。
It's kinda funny.
科技行业只占美国总就业的2%，却占了标普500的50%。
Technology makes up 2% of total employment in The United States and 50% of the S and P 500.
所以这就是整个股市并不等于经济。
So this is this is the whole the stock market is not the economy.
那就会是那些东西，比如，就是……
That would be the things, like, it's just...
它太大了。
It's so big.
但是……
But...
所以我觉得他们可能会比很多人预期的撑得更久，但我同意金融市场，那就是这里的终点。
So I think they could extend this for longer than maybe many people think, but I agree that the financial markets, that's the that's the stopping point here.
那可能会……
That's what could...
我不在乎马克·扎克伯格或其他CEO怎么说，比如，嘿。
I don't care what Mark Zuckerberg or any of the other CEOs say, like, hey.
我们要大干一场。
We're we're gonna go big.
我们不在乎。
We don't care.
最终，市场如果想放慢脚步，它也可以放慢，但这取决于市场自己来决定。
Eventually, the markets can slow down if if if it wants to, but it's up to the market to to say.
而到目前为止，市场还没有任何表示。
And the market so far hasn't said anything.
你说得对。
You're right.
永远……
Ever...
现在市场上流动的资金太多了。
There's so much money floating around.
本，你上周在节目开头问我，我记不清你是怎么说的了，但好像是关于呼吸的？
Ben, you opened the show last week asking me, can I can I remember how you phrase it, but it was something about the breath?
比如，市场能不能……
Like, can the market...
哦，市场能不能……
Oh, can the mark...
是不是……
Was it...
我想是……
Think it was...
当这么多股票都在下跌时，市场还能撑得住吗？
Can the market hold in there when so many stocks are going down?
我当时斩钉截铁地说，能。
And I said emphatically, yes.
除非利率继续大幅攀升。
Unless interest rates continue to rip higher.
错在……
Wrong for...
对，但原因不对。
Right for the wrong reasons.
错，但原因是对的。
Wrong for the right reasons.
因为利率一直在往上涨。
Because interest rates keep going higher.
我们这周一录节目，因为本明天有事。
We'll record this Monday afternoon because Ben has something tomorrow.
但十年期、二十年期、三十年期国债收益率都创了新的周期高点。
But new new cycle highs for the ten year, for the twenty year, for the thirty year.
然而标普指数今天表现却很好。
And yet the S and P is having a great day.
它离历史高点非常近。
It's it's right near all time highs.
等权重指数也稍微反弹了一点。
The equal weight is is bouncing a little bit.
我，我觉得用‘惊讶’这个词不算过分，但我确实很意外。
I I, I don't believe it is too strong of a word, but I'm surprised.
作为一个……
As as somebody who's...
我……
I...
就是，我……
Like, I...
我现在是看涨的。
I'm I'm bullish right now.
我觉得等权重指数会追上来。
I think that the the equal weight will catch up.
我不担心那些糟糕的言论。
I'm not worried about the lousy breath.
我挺惊讶的。
I'm surprised.
市场能这样撑住，我确实挺惊讶的。
I am surprised the market is holding in like this.
奇怪的是，如果你把战争前的利率、通胀这些数据画出来，战争开始前那会儿，好像就是所有东西的底部。
The weird thing is if you if you plot the the rates and inflation and all this stuff before the war, right before the war started was, like, the bottom and everything.
通胀只有百分之二点五。
Inflation was only two and a half percent.
利率勉强低于百分之四。
Rates were barely below 4%.
如果你把现在的情况画出来，看起来好像是战争导致了这一切。
And if you plot it to now, it looks like the war caused all of that stuff.
而且，显然，战争确实在很大程度上造成了这些。
And, obviously, it did a lot of it.
因为如果图表专家马特看通胀和剔除能源的通胀，剔除能源后的通胀完全是另一回事。
Because if chart kid Matt's looked at inflation and inflation x energy, and inflation x energy is a totally different story.
但有没有可能，我们最初看到的利率和通胀的飙升，全都是那个故事？
But is it also possible that initial burst we got of rates and inflation was all that story?
就是战争。
It's the war.
你说的是直线上升，从它还是关闭的时候开始。
You said the straight up from was it still closed.
现在没事了。
And now it's okay.
行吧。
Fine.
而且现在AI也在接管一切。
And AI is taking over now too.
AI在推高它，人们真的相信这个高增长的故事，所以利率也上去了。
And AI is pushing it up, and people are really believing this higher growth story for rates.
这就是为什么股市即使利率上升也一直在涨。
And that's why the stock market keeps going up even as rates go up too.
确实，确实……
It is it is...
令人惊讶的是，市场没有说，好吧。
It's surprising that the market hasn't said, alright.
行吧。
Fine.
10%的回调。
10% correction.
就接受吧。
Just take it.
总得有个东西要崩。
Something's gotta give.
确实感觉不错。
Sure feel good.
感觉那句话在牛市里很流行。
Feel like that quote that quote is in the bull market.
好的。
Alright.
今天你和我和Victory Capital录了你的书里的话题。
You and I recorded the talk of your book today with Victory Capital.
我们在讨论高贝塔和低贝塔。
We're talking about high beta versus low beta.
这就是高贝塔的十年。
This this is the high beta decade.
高贝塔和高贝塔动量，随你怎么说。
High beta and high beta momentum, however you wanna phrase it.
就这十年，二十年代，高贝塔涨了260%。
This decade alone, twenty twenties, high beta is up 260%.
低波动。
Low volatility.
所以我用的是标普和景顺的基金。
So I'm I'm using S and P, Invesco funds here.
总共涨了40%。
It's up 40% in total.
低波动几乎没怎么动。
Low volatility has just done nothing.
非常平稳。
Very steady.
回报并不高。
Not very much returns.
实际上还在放缓。
It's actually slowing down.
所以你得到的只是……
So you're just getting...
就像，高贝塔和低贝塔之间的差距。
Like, the the difference between high beta and low beta.
如果你是多元化投资者，两者都持有，那你可能表现还不错。
Now if you're a diversified investor and you have both of them, you probably did okay.
基本上，可能就跟市场持平。
Probably, like, matched the market essentially.
但这两者之间的分化，大概是过去三十年里最严重的了。
But that divergence between the two is gotta be about as great as it's been in the last thirty years.
这……
It's...
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
这对那些专注分红的投资者来说，简直是雪上加霜。
This is salt in the wound for, I guess, dividend focused investors.
因为股市的这个领域对利率上升极其敏感，无论是企业融资方面，还是投资者偏好方面。
Because this is the area of the stock market that is extremely vulnerable to higher rates both in terms of actually, like, financing the businesses as well as investor preference.
好吧，我可不会为了3%的股息收益率去冒险。
Well, I don't throw a 3% dividend yield.
我宁愿要……
I just give me...
如果股市波动大，我宁愿选债券。
And stock market volatility, I'll take bonds.
对。
Yes.
你说得对。
You're right.
现在，这些股息收益率其实已经有竞争对手了。
At this point, there's actually competition for those dividend yields.
而这么多年来，一直都没有。
And for years, there wasn't.
你知道这里最有趣的是什么吗？
You know what the funny thing is here?
再说一遍，高贝塔是SPHB。
So, again, high high beta is SPHB.
低波动是SPLV。
Low volatility is SPLV.
SPLV的资产规模大约是那个高贝塔的七倍。
SPLV has about seven times the assets the high beta has.
低波动的资产要多得多。
Low volatility has way more assets.
大概有70亿美元，而高贝塔呢，我们之前聊过，其实没什么人真正持有动量策略这类东西。
It's, like, 7,000,000,000, where the high beta has about we've talked about this, fact that no one really owns, like, momentum type strategies.
这对我来说倒是挺合理的。
That kinda makes sense to me.
只是因为高贝塔不是一个好策略。
Only because high beta is not a good strategy.
我也不是说低波动是个好策略，但这样说得通。
And I'm not saying low vol is a great strategy, but it kinda makes sense.
如果你想要……如果你想要某些领域……
If you want if you want areas of...
如果你想要高风险的敞口，高贝塔并不是一个好办法。
If you want exposure to juice, high beta is not a great way to do it.
所以你是说直接持有纳斯达克100指数？
So you just own the Nasdaq 100, you're saying?
而不是持有……
Instead of owning...
完全正确。
Absolutely.
我想那……
I guess that...
你说得对。
You're right.
所有的钱都流到那儿去了。
That's where all the money has gone for that.
说到疯狂的资产管理规模，来看看卢克·豪厄尔发的这些内容。
Speaking of crazy AUM stuff, here, read this stuff from Luke Howell.
我觉得你把这个放进来了。
You put this in here, I think.
好的。
Alright.
所以Sherwood的卢克转发了摩根大通的一条推文。
So Luke at Sherwood tweeted from JPMorgan.
刚才播客里说得太糟糕了。
That was horrible podcasting.
提到了太多名字。
Saying too many names.
摩根大通说，这是有记录以来最大规模的资金流入长期国债ETF，也就是TLT，而且主要是由于大量资金涌入TLT，而收益率还在不断走高。
JPMorgan says that the largest rotation into the long end treasury ETFs, TLT, on record and driven mainly by outsized inflows into TLT as yields keep drifting higher.
所以他们展示了一个累计的散户失衡指标。
So they show a cumulative retail imbalance.
说实话，我不知道那是什么意思。
And I have to be honest, don't know what that means.
但它确实在向右上方上升。
But but it is going up and to the right.
那只是意味着……
That just means that re...
我猜那意味着散户是这里的主要买家。
I assume that means retail is the ones doing a lot of the buying here.
对。
Sure.
这跟彭博社分享的那张图表是一致的。
Which jives with the chart that that shared over at Bloomberg.
基本上，钱一直在往TLT里涌，尽管它一直在跌。
Basically, money just keeps pointing to TLT as it keeps going down.
这
This
挺让人意外的，因为你和我之前聊过，一直有……
is surprising because you and I have talked about the fact that there's been...
这是有史以来最严重的债券熊市。
This is the worst bond bear market of all time.
这十年是迄今为止最糟糕的债券熊市，而且当时有一个非常简单容易的对冲方法。
This decade has been by far the worst bond bear market that there is, and there was a really simple and easy hedge for it.
就是做空久期。
You go short duration.
买短期国库券。
You go to T bills.
买一到三年期的国债，或者类似的。
You go to one to three or treasuries, whatever it is.
你没有利率波动的问题，但是……
You don't have the interest rate volatility, but the...
在这次崩盘之前，好吧，TLT仍然下跌了40%多，45%的回撤，那……
Before this this crash happened, okay, and TLT is still in a 40 some percent drawdown, 45% drawdown, that...
这还是把再投资的收入算进去了。
That's including income reinvested.
它曾经……
It had...
我记得2022年总资产是170亿或180亿美元，然后它崩了40%。
I think the total assets were 17 or $18,000,000,000 in 2022, then it crashed 40%.
现在，资产规模接近500亿美元。
Today, there's almost 50,000,000,000 in assets.
所以资金一直在涌入这个资产，在……
So money has been pouring in to this asset during a...
自2022年11月以来，它一直处于40%的回撤中，资金却持续流入，而且这些资金也没有得到很好的管理。
It's been in a 40% drawdown since November 2022, and money has continued to pour in and not being taken care of very well either.
不是说今年不会再这样了。
Not not saying again this year.
这话不完全对。
Not exactly true.
为什么？
Why?
我给你看看。
I'll show you.
有一张放大的图表，他展示……
Has a chart that zooms out, and he show...
这是……
It's...
标题是：家庭投资者不喜欢长期国债。
The title is households don't like the long end of the treasury curve.
这张图可以追溯到2024年9月。
And this chart goes back to September 2024.
而且资金确实大量涌入了对冲工具，涌入了超短期国债ETF，规模高达惊人的750亿美元，而TLT却流出了50亿美元。
And money has absolutely gone into the hedge, into ultra short term treasury ETFs to the tune of 75 freaking billion dollars, while $5,000,000,000 has come out of TLT.
本，你看到那条线在绿色柱子上那个小凸起了吗？
Now, Ben, you see that little bump in the line in that green bar?
所以在过去的，我也不确定，六个月里，大量资金涌入。
So in the last, I don't know, six months, a lot of money has come in.
但这很有启发性，因为我们稍后会讨论这个。
But this is instructive, because we're talking about this later.
有时候你得退一步看，稍微批判性地思考一下。
Sometimes you have to zoom out, think a little bit critically.
这是一种危险的姿态，因为现在社会上有很多不信任，所以不是所有数字都是准确的。
And this is a dangerous posture that, like, not all numbers are accurate because there's a lot of distrust in society these days.
如果你连数字都不能相信，那你还能相信什么？
And if you can't trust the numbers, what can you trust?
但在很多对话中，数字要么被刻意框定，要么被选择性挑选。
But very often in conversations, numbers are either framed or cherry picked.
它们可能会误导人。
They can be misleading.
数字是可以买来的。
Can buy a number.
好的。
Okay.
你说得对。
You're right.
所以，实际上，数据显示大部分资金是在2023年和2024年流入的。
So, actually, it shows most of the money went in in 2023 and 2024.
你说得对。
You're right.
然后速度就慢下来了。
And then it kinda slowed down.
但还是有大量资金……
But still a ton of money...
而且，显然，人们不断被踢到小腿，然后说，好吧。
And, obviously, people kept getting kicked in the shins and said, alright.
行吧。
Fine.
但还是有……
But there's still...
这个策略虽然一直亏大钱，但里面还是有很多钱。
There's a ton of money in this strategy for what has been a big time money loser.
那个……
The...
十年来最大的之一。
One of the biggest all decade.
但也可以准确地说，在利率飙升期间，正如Eric展示的，在利率飙升期间，人们确实在往燃烧的大楼里冲。
But it is also accurate to say that during the rip in rates, as Eric is showing, during the rip in rates, people are definitely running into a burning burning building.
而且它……
And it...
他们……
They're...
我觉得现在三十年期的收益率大概有5.7%。
You're getting, I think, 5.7% on a thirty year now.
再说，这……
Again, this is...
这不像那种千载难逢的买入机会，值得大力推荐，但这是二十年来最高的水平了。
This is not like boom generational buying opportunity pound the table, but this is the highest level they've been in twenty years.
所以我想我能理解。
So I I I guess I get it.
有趣的是……
The funny thing...
我……
I...
我一直在想这个问题。
I've been thinking about this.
人们会说，嘿。
People are saying like, hey.
听我说。
Listen.
特别是……
Especially...
这尤其是婴儿潮一代的人会说的话。
This is especially kind of a boomer thing to say.
我不是故意针对婴儿潮一代，因为我们总是收到邮件，有人说，嘿。
I don't mean to pick on boomers because we always get emails from people being like, hey.
我就是你们经常开玩笑吐槽的婴儿潮一代之一。
I'm one of the boomers you guys always talk crap about in a joking way.
但有很多人会说，听我说。
But there's a lot of people who say, like, listen.
7%的房贷利率并不是……
7% mortgages aren't...
那些是正常的。
Those are normal.
我们一辈子都见过7%的房贷，但是……
We've had 7% mortgages our whole life, but there...
其实根本不存在什么正常的利率环境。
There's no such thing as a normal interest rate environment.
我把十年期国债的走势画出来了。
I plotted the ten year treasury.
看看这张图。
Look at this chart.
从1940年，也就是二战开始的时候算起。
Going back to 1940, the start of World War two essentially.
这是十年期国债的利率。
This was a ten year treasury.
它从2%开始，战争期间基本上长期保持在非常低的水平。
It goes from 2%, and during the war, it essentially stayed really, really low for a long time.
八十年代的时候涨到了15%左右，我从席勒那里拿到的数据显示，从那以后就一直往下降，然后……
Got up to 15% or so in the eighties, and I got this data from Schiller that it's been down ever since and up...
根本不存在什么正常的利率。
There's no such thing as a normal interest rate.
事实上，人们会说，嗯，我不……
And in fact, people say, well, I don't...
我觉得如果你让人们猜一个数字，什么是正常的利率？
I think if you had to give people a guess a number, what's a normal interest rate?
你会怎么说？
What you say?
5%？
5%?
比如，从历史上看，什么是常态？
Like, historically, what's the norm?
从1940年开始，……
Since 1940, the...
我把这些分成了不同的区间。
I put these into different bands.
零到二，二到四，四到六，六到八，还有八以上。
Zero to two, two to four, four to six, six to eight, and eight and up.
其实最正常的，所谓正常，是二到四。
The most normal quote unquote is actually two to 4%.
所以实际上，低利率在大多数时候才是常态，而大家觉得正常的四到六这个区间，大概只出现了四分之一的时间。
So actually lower interest rates have been the the kind of the norm most of the time, And then the four to 6% range that people would call normals happened one quarter of the time or so.
所以……
So...
但是你不能光看这张图，然后画个平均值就说，对，这就是正常。
But you can't look at this chart and then just draw an average and say, yep.
因为七八十年代利率太高了，把平均值也拉高了。
That's normal because interest rates got so high in the seventies and eighties that that skews the average too.
嗯，这又是一个用数字说谎的例子。
Well, another example of lying with numbers.
对。
Yes.
从数据上看，确实有个平均值。
Factually, there is an average.
你可以算出来，但它完全没意义。
You can calculate it, but it's completely meaningless.
挺有意思的是，你还可以说……
It is kinda funny, that you can also say...
你知道，当时的情况就是，嘿。
You know the the thing was, like, hey.
有一整批……
There's a whole group of...
一代投资者，他们从没经历过熊市。
Generation of investors who's never lived through a bear market.
这就是人们常说的那种话。
That was the thing people would say.
那真是太烦人了。
That was so annoying.
你可以，你可以说……
You could you could make
因为那都是老一辈人说的，好像是在教训年轻人赚钱似的。
because it it was it was said by old people to, like, somehow scold young people for making money.
我特别讨厌那玩意儿。
I I hated that shit.
现在也一样。
I still do.
顺便说一句，说到那些老一代人……
By way, speaking of boomers
等等。
But wait.
不。
No.
不过，这确实是真的，确实有……
It it really is true, though, that there's...
有一整代投资者从来没有经历过5%的债券收益率。
There is a whole generation of investors who've never lived through 5% bond yields before.
我们已经很久没有见过这种情况了。
It's been a long time since we've had this.
所以我们……
So we're...
你和我，我们的收件箱里塞满了人们问关于债券的问题，因为过去十五年左右，利率太低，没人关心，所以没人需要去考虑债券。
You and I, our inbox has been flooded with people asking questions about bond because no one ever had to think about bonds for the last fifteen years or so because rates were so low and no one cared.
好的。
Alright.
我爸把这本书还给我了。
My dad returned this book to me.
嘿，爸。
Hey, dad.
跟我说点我不知道的事。
Tell me something I don't know.
一个有趣又难忘的活动，还能留作家庭纪念。
A fun and memorable activity and family keepsake.
我同意。
I would agree.
所以，就是一堆类似“你对我们最美好的回忆是什么”的问题。
So, it's just a bunch of like, what is your favorite memory of us?
如果我读这个，我可能会哭，因为我还没读过。
And if I read this, I'll probably cry because I haven't read this yet.
但这很棒。
But it's awesome.
我会鼓励任何跟我还有本差不多年纪的人，如果你们有年迈的父母，他们不会永远都在。
I would encourage anybody who is of mine and Ben's age ish who has aging parents that aren't gonna be around forever and ever.
这真的很棒。
This is great.
这是我会一辈子保留并一直应用的东西。
This is something that I will probably keep with me for the rest of my life and just apply.
等等。
Wait.
汤姆，告诉我这是怎么运作的？
Tell me how it works, Tom?
是这样的。
So it is
就是在这里你问他们一些问题，然后他们填写答案，让你永远分享，对吧？
This is where this is where you ask them information and they fill it out for you to share forever?
或者是什么？
Or what?
你小时候有没有绰号？
Did you have a nickname growing up?
我只是在往下翻。
I'm just scrolling through.
你第一个喜欢的人是谁？
Who's your first before?
暗恋对象。
Crush.
就是随便问些乱七八糟的。
I mean, just random shit.
比如，小时候的绰号、最喜欢的运动和爱好。
Like, as a child, Tina Dulley, your favorite sports and hobbies.
你怎么会想到我的名字的？
How do you come up with my name?
哦，那个我还没看。
Oh, I haven't read that one.
这个我还没全看完。
I haven't read this all yet.
但是
But
这对你的孩子来说也很棒，显然。
It's great for your kids too, obviously.
太棒了。
It's awesome.
所以这非常有意义。
So it's very meaningful.
而且那是……
And That's...
我很高兴你这么说，因为我一直在考虑为我父亲做点什么，因为他
I'm glad you said that because I've been thinking about doing something about my dad as
也快80岁了，是的。
well Yeah.
他快80岁了。
Who's fast approaching 80 years old.
好的。
Okay.
邓肯在The Compound给我们发了一个投票。
Duncan sent us a poll at The Compound.
你对当前的经济状况感觉如何？
How do you feel about the current state of the economy?
30%的人说经济强劲，47%的人说经济还行，大约四分之一的人说经济疲软。
30% say the economy is strong, 47% say the economy is okay, and about a quarter of people say the economy is weak.
而且，显然，我觉得当人们被问到这个问题时，他们不会考虑实际经济在做什么。
And, obviously, I think when people are asked this question, they don't think about what the actual economy is doing.
他们考虑的是自己的个人经济状况。
They think about their personal economy.
我经常想这个问题，因为我们是播客的一部分……
And I think about this a lot because we are part of a podcast...
一个金融播客。
A finance podcast.
如果我们谈论不同的收入群体，人们……
And if we talk about different income groups, people...
所有人……
All...
自从我们做这个播客以来，人们总说，你们太脱离实际了。
Ever since we do this podcast, people say, you guys are so out of touch.
你们不懂这个、那个，或者别的什么。
You don't understand a, b, or c.
而且我的……
And my...
你们不懂这个群体或那个群体的人。
You don't understand people in this group or that group.
我的看法是，在经济问题上，基本上每个人都是脱离实际的。
My my thing is literally everyone is out of touch when it comes to the economy.
因为如果你多年来一直说，这经济糟透了，通胀啊通胀，而且只有……
Because if you're one of these people who've been saying for years, this economy stinks, the, you know, inflation and and it's only the...
比如，如果你一直这么说，那你……
Like, if you've been saying that, then you...
那你就是脱离现实了。
You're out of touch.
但如果你又说，听我说。
But if you also say, listen.
我所有的朋友都过得很好，因为他们都是有钱人，那你也脱离现实了。
All my friends are doing great because they're Ricks, then you're out of...
我的看法是，每个人都脱离现实。
Like, my take is everyone is out of touch.
对吧？
Okay?
这么说够公平吧？
Is that fair enough to say?
我觉得这个观点特别好。
I think it's such a great point.
从某种程度上说，每个人对经济的看法都完全脱离现实。
In in some ways, everyone about the economy is completely out of touch with reality.
可能一直以来都是这样，只是我们现在有了更多的数据。
And that's the way it's probably always been, but we just have more data now.
说到这个，这是来自……
Speaking of which, this is from...
分享的这个。
Shared this.
这是来自波士顿咨询集团的。
This is from BCG Group.
他们说年轻人过得挺好的。
They say the kids are alright.
关于年轻人和金钱的永恒焦虑。
The timeless angst over young people and money.
你前几天和埃德·埃里森聊了很多这方面的事，所以我觉得这个挺合适的……
And you talked to Ed Ellison about a lot of this the other day, and so I thought this was kind of a good...
对你们做的那个T-Cap节目来说。
For the t cap you guys did.
所以，这是对市场的接触。
So exposure to the markets.
这是34岁时，公司股票和共同基金占资产的比例。
This is corporate equities and mutual funds as a percentage of assets at age 34.
婴儿潮一代是7%。
Baby boomers had 7%.
X世代是11%。
Gen x had 11%.
千禧一代是19%。
Millennials, it's 19%.
所以年轻人更早进入市场。
So young people are getting into the markets earlier.
好消息。
Great news.
再看看千禧一代，他们在收入、财富和房产拥有方面，用了多长时间才超过前几代人。
They also look what happened to millennials in terms of how long did it take them to overtake previous generations in income, wealth, and homeownership.
收入在二十多岁的时候就实现了。
Income happened in the twenties.
财富在三十多岁的时候实现了，而房产拥有直到四十多岁才实现，这是相对于他们前一代人，也就是X世代而言的。
Wealth happened in the thirties, and homeownership didn't happen until the forties for the generation ahead of them, gen x.
关键在于，现在的年轻人做这些事情要等更久。
And the whole point is younger people now are waiting to do these things much longer.
你还认识多少人是高中或大学一毕业就结婚的？
How many people do you know that are getting married right out of high school or college anymore?
这种情况很少见了。
That rarely happens.
但还是会发生的。
But it's it's still happening.
这些……
These...
只是需要时间。
It's just taking a while.
杰里米有一个数据，显示千禧一代和Z世代的平均年龄比同年龄段的X世代要大得多。
Jeremy has this one where he shows the average age for millennials and gen z much greater than where gen x was at the same age.
我能说一句吗？
Can I say one thing?
你刚才有点打断自己了。
You sorta cut you off.
好的。
Yes.
好。
Okay.
我觉得埃德·埃尔森非常棒。
I think Ed Elson is terrific.
他是一位非常出色的演讲者、作家，人也特别好，我特别崇拜他。
He's an incredibly impressive speaker, writer, person, like, huge fan.
我也是。
Me too.
我喜欢他。
I like him.
他有一个常谈的话题，
One of one of his beats
看着不高，其实挺高的。
Sneaky tall.
他就是那种你看着觉得不高，其实挺高的人。
He's one of those guys that you see him as Sneaky tall guy.
他常谈的一个话题就是现在的年轻人有多不容易。
So one of his beats is how tough young people have these days.
对。
Yes.
我不是说他说得全错，或者说大部分都错。
And I'm not here to say that he's wrong about everything he's saying, or in fact that he's wrong about most of what he's saying.
这不是我要说的重点。
That's not the point that I'm gonna make.
这其实有两个不同的极端。
There's like two different spectrums of this.
一个是所有事情都很糟糕。
One is everything is terrible.
另一个是所有事情都很棒。
One is everything is amazing.
那个……
Who's the the...
最近有一位社会科学家去世了，他……
There was like a social scientist that passed away recently that...
不是史蒂芬·平克。
It wasn't Steven Pinker.
我们聊过……
We spoke...
是另一个人，他……
It was another guy that...
就是世界在各个方面都变好了。
Just all of the ways that the world has improved.
就是，客观地来说。
Just, like, objectively.
好吧。
Alright.
所以……
So...
但是不……
But no...
但是没人想听事情有多好。
But nobody wants to hear how great things are.
汉斯·罗斯林。
Hans Rosling.
他的书是罗斯林写的。
His book was Rosling.
汉斯·罗斯林。
Hans Rosling.
是的。
Yes.
太棒了。
Amazing.
好的。
Okay.
观众想听的是负面消息。
The audience wants to hear negativity.
当然。
Of course.
如果有个播客只讲一切有多好，没人会听，因为那太无聊了。
If there was a podcast that just described how great everything was, nobody would listen to it because it's super boring.
比如
Like
我会听的，不过你说得对。
I would listen to it, but yes, you're right.
大多数人不会听。
Most people wouldn't.
但我觉得，就我们聊的这些话题来说，好像什么事都被当成问题来看。
But I feel like with stuff, like, specifically to what we're talking about, everything is viewed as a problem.
哦，年轻人都不结婚了。
Oh, young people aren't getting married anymore.
所以那肯定不好。
So that must be bad.
真的吗？
Really?
因为我爸妈结婚的时候太年轻了。
Because my parents got married when they were way too young.
而且我们很多人的父母都离婚了，因为他们自己还是孩子就生了孩子，根本应付不了养孩子的责任，这影响了很多我这个年纪的人。
And like many of our parents got divorced because they were kids having kids and couldn't handle the responsibilities of bringing kids up, which up a lot of people my age.
比如，面对离异的父母并不是件容易的事。
Like, dealing with divorced parents is not the easiest thing.
Ritholtz，这很大程度上是个人选择的问题，而不是说，嘿，世界要完蛋了。
Ritholtz, a lot of this is preferences, not just, hey, the world is falling apart.
所以我不把这个数据点看作，嘿。
So I don't view this data point as, hey.
为什么人们不生孩子……
Why aren't people having...
这里面显然也包含了一些负面情绪。
And there is some negativity wrapped up in there, obviously.
显然。
Obviously.
另外……
Another...
所以过去一周我一直在想这个问题，听了Ed的播客之后，也读了Derek写的一篇文章。
So I've been thinking about this the the the past week after Ed's podcast, but also after reading Derek wrote a post.
抱歉，我…
Sorry to...
我们是不是…
Should we...
我有点语无伦次了。
I'm I'm jumping all over place.
但是德里克·汤普森写了一篇文章，讲的是，比如，人们，对。
But Derek Derek Thompson wrote a post about, like, people Yeah.
不再有
Don't have
人们不再办派对了。
People don't do parties anymore.
人们不再办派对了。
People don't throw parties anymore.
我不是说德里克这么说的，但我第一反应是，那又怎么样呢？
And I'm not saying Derek said this, but my first thought was, well, so fucking what?
什么？
What?
晚餐聚会不是很棒吗？
Dinner parties are so awesome?
而且我们以前做但现在不做的那些事，也不全是坏事。
And everything that we used to do that we don't do, it's not all bad.
世界上有很多糟糕的事情。
There's a ton of bad shit in the world.
收入不平等。
Income inequality.
我们不需要深入讨论这个。
We don't need to get into that.
有各种可怕的事情。
There's all sorts of horrific shit.
但事实上，是……
But but matter of fact, was...
我看了那个……
I I watched the...
我终于和罗宾一起重看了《邀请》。
I rewatched The Invite with Robin finally.
也不是终于。
Not finally.
它刚上映。
It just came out.
你看过那部电影吗？
You see that movie?
很喜欢。
Loved it.
太搞笑了。
Hilarious.
那部电影很棒。
That was a great movie.
我已经又看了一遍了。
I rewatched it already.
我看了两遍。
I watched it twice.
太好玩了。
So fun.
我真的很喜欢。
I I really liked it.
还有一部电影，讲的是人们请客吃饭的，叫
And there's another movie where people have people over called
《发明》
The Invention.
我，你谈到为什么我们越来越少办晚宴了？
My You take about why we're having fewer dinner parties?
现在餐馆好多了，也漂亮多了。
Restaurants are so much better and nicer now.
以前在家请客是因为餐馆不怎么样。
Have dinner parties in the past because restaurants sucked.
现在餐馆好多了。
Today, restaurants are so much nicer.
能去好餐馆吃饭，干嘛还要请人到家里来？
Why would you wanna have people over your house when you can go to a nice restaurant?
所以德里克……
So Derek...
没错。
Exactly.
德里克写道，主人之死，讲的是孤独的单身人士、忙乱的已婚双职工家庭，还有焦虑的父母，他们把更多时间花在孩子身上，和朋友相处的时间却越来越少。
So Derek wrote, the death of the host is the story of lonely, unmarried people and harried, married, dual earner households, anxious parents spending more time with their children, and less time with friends.
有一部分是真的。
Part is true.
比如，孩子真的特别占精力。
Like, kids take way more bandwidth.
但这是……
But this is...
但对我来说，这大概占了七成。
But this to me is, like, 70% of it.
而且现在的家变得太舒适了，舒适到人们根本不需要请别人来打破无聊。
And the typical home becoming such a ride of diverting comfort that people no longer have to invite human beings to interrupt their boredom.
待在家里简直爽翻了。
Being home is fucking awesome.
我以前也说过这话。
Have said this in the past.
以前我记得，我盯着窗外看。
Back in the day, I remember, like, I remember staring out my window.
我记得那种发自内心的无聊感。
Like, I remember that visceral feeling of boredom.
现在我们是不是有点过头了？
Now have we overdone it?
难道就没有无聊的时候吗？
Is there no boredom?
无聊是不是和刷太多TikTok一样糟糕？
Is boredom maybe as good as TikTok too much?
你说得对。
You're right.
这是有得有失的。
It's give
对，就是有得有失，我觉得现在给得太多了，拿得太少了。
It's and it's a give and take, and I'm saying there's just too much giving and not enough taking.
关于年轻人，我还有一个观点。
So I have I have one more point on the young person too.
问题是，现在有像Nelson、Kyla Scanlon这样的年轻人发声，这很好，他们年轻，同时也代表这一代人说话。
The thing is it's great that we have young people's voices now at Nelson, Kyla Scanlon, these people who are young and also speaking for the generation.
这很有必要。
It's needed.
不过，问题是这样的。
Here's the thing, though.
在过去，年轻人没有发声的渠道。
In the past, young people did not have a microphone.
没有人会听年轻人说的话。
No one ever listened to what young people said.
年轻人没法抱怨，因为没人会听他们的。
Young people couldn't complain because no one would listen to them.
他们根本没有机会说出自己的困境。
They didn't get the chance to share their plight.
所以，如果你在九十年代告诉人们，猜猜我们现在有什么？
So if you would have given people in the nineties, like, guess what we got?
那就是一堆关于叛逆、愤怒的年轻人的电影。
A bunch of movies about disaffected young people who were pissed off.
所以现在有了社交媒体和播客，年轻人终于可以抱怨了，而过去他们根本没有这个机会。
So it's just now we have social media and podcasts, and young people can now complain they didn't have that opportunity in the past.
所以感觉就像，天哪，年轻人……
So it feels like, oh my gosh, young...
过去你根本听不到他们的声音。
You just never heard from them in the past.
今天你能听到他们，是因为有了麦克风。
You hear from them today because there's a microphone.
现在问题是
Now here's the
这一点我同意。
one I be true.
对。
Yes.
最后一点。
Last thing.
现在当年轻人不容易。
It's hard to be a young person today.
年轻人从来都不好当。
It's always been hard to be a young person.
但这不代表你不认真对待他们的困难。
Doesn't mean that you're not taking their their struggles seriously.
他们会长大的，会没事的。
They're gonna grow up, and they're gonna be fine.
对。
Yes.
每一代长辈都总是瞧不起年轻一代，说你们比我轻松多了。
Every older generation has always thumbed their nose at younger generations saying you had it easier than me.
长大吧。
Grow up.
你们会没事的。
You're gonna be fine.
将来你们会过得好的。
You'll be fine in the future.
确实如此，而且年轻人也确实……
That's true, and it's also true that young people have had...
在某些方面运气不太好，一直如此。
Got dealt a bad hand in some ways, as always.
这就是那些事情之一……
This is one of the things that...
尽管我刚才分享了那些图表，但这就是人们真正愤怒的原因。
Despite all those graphs that I just shared, this is why this is why people are really angry.
《华尔街日报》提到了那0.1%的人。
From The Wall Street Journal, they talk about the 0.1%.
现在说的不只是前10%或前1%了。
It's not talking about just the top 10% anymore or the top 1%.
而是前0.1%。
It's the top point 1%.
137个家庭掌控着28万亿美元，占家庭总净资产的15%。
137 households control $28,000,000,000,000 or 15% of total household net worth.
所以人们说，不管这个群体或那个群体得到了多少好处，都不在乎。
So people say, don't care how much better things they've got for this group or that group or this group.
最顶尖的0.1%拥有这么多钱，我猜他们的财富这十年翻了一番。
The top point 1% having this much money, I guess their their wealth has doubled this decade.
人们就会说，这简直……
People go, that's just...
我就是会感到愤怒。
I'm just gonna be pissed off.
对吧？
Okay?
这让我很生气。
That's gonna make me mad.
可以理解。
Understandable.
是的。
Yes.
这已经失控了。
It's out of control.
确实……
It is...
不幸的是，财富不平等只会往一个方向发展。
The the wealth inequality only goes one way, unfortunately.
说到这个，我从来没听说过这件事。
Speaking of which, I I I I never heard of this one.
这个，我几周前错过了彭博社的报道。
This one, like, I missed this a couple weeks ago from Bloomberg.
我觉得这真的很好笑，因为这说明……
This is this is really funny to me that that this is like...
这显示了我们已经取得了多大的进步。
Shows how much progress we have made.
科技新贵们正遭受“突然暴富综合症”的困扰。
Tech's new rich are suffering from Sudden Wealth Syndrome.
一个不断壮大的退出后生态系统正在帮助创始人应对变得极其富有所带来的意想不到的困难。
A growing post exit ecosystem is helping founders deal with the unexpected difficulties of becoming extremely wealthy.
所以他们说的是
So they're talking
这些人就是那些经济后的人。
about These are these are the these are the post economic people.
对。
Yes.
经济后……
Post...
确实。
It is.
经济后，经济……
Post economic post...
对。
Yes.
所以他们谈到，比如，这件事发生之后，人们……
So they talk about how, like, after this happens, people...
他们卖掉了自己的公司。
They sell their company.
他们采访了一位创办播客的女性，她以1亿美元卖掉了公司，之后她说，我一生中从未如此抑郁过，我离婚了，这基本上毁了我的生活。
They they interviewed this woman who started a podcast, and she sold her company for a $100,000,000 or and afterwards she's like, I've never been more depressed in my life, I got divorced, like it ruined my life essentially.
然后他们问，比如，有多少……
And they say they ask like how...
经历过这种事的人中，15%处于相当悲伤的状态，70%感到舒适，15%则蒸蒸日上。
15% of people who go through this are in a pretty sad place, 70% are comfortable, and 15% are thriving.
所以那些赚了很多很多钱的人，我们说的是通过卖公司或获得公司股份等方式改变人生的巨额财富，他们并不是都说我过得很好，这太棒了。
So like people who make a ton and ton of money, we're talking life changing amounts of money by selling or getting shares in a company, whatever it is, they're not all saying I'm doing amazing, this is awesome.
他们中有些人其实……
Of them are People really
想做个普通人。
wanna be normal.
是的。
Yes.
如果你有一亿美元的退出，假设你是个普通人……
If if you if you have a $100,000,000 exit, and let's assume that that you're like a real...
就是说，你是个普通人。
Like, you're a normal person.
你不是那种疯狂驱动型的人。
You're not one of these psychomaniac driven people.
你只是个普通人，碰巧做出了很棒的东西，等等。
You're a regular person who happened to build something awesome and whatever.
你得到了这个结果。
You had this outcome.
你没法隐藏这笔财富。
And you can't hide that wealth.
不。
No.
就像那些两米多高的人，他们只想做个普通人，对吧？
It's like how people that are, like, six foot ten, they just wanna be normal?
所以我觉得我们在处理交易时学到的一件事是……
So I think one of the things that we've learned deal...
在财富管理行业工作，和很多有钱人打交道，有点像医生对病人的痛苦变得有点麻木了……
Working in wealth management and dealing with people with lots of money, it's kinda like a doctor who becomes kind of immune to, like, pay...
不是对病人的痛苦麻木，而是习惯了。
Not immune to suffering of their patients, but they just get used to it.
你会习惯看到血。
You get used to blood.
你会习惯看到人们……
You get used to people getting...
不管是什么。
Whatever it is.
我觉得对我们来说，这……
I feel like for us, it...
你对钱已经习以为常了，它不再让你那么震撼了。
You get used to the money and it doesn't impress you as much anymore.
然后……
And then...
但你会看到那些适应得更好的人，他们是那些有时间慢慢适应每一级收入和财富的人。
But you see the people that are more well adjusted, and it's the people who had time to slowly but surely get adjusted to each new level of income and wealth.
如果这一切突然发生，就像童星一样。
And if it happens all at once, it's like the child actor.
比如，你成为童星的那一年，你的心智成熟度就停止增长了。
Like, the year you become a child actor, that's when your maturity stops growing.
如果这发生在很小的年纪，真的会把你搞得很惨。
Like, if it happens at a very young age, it can really screw you up.
所以这有点像是“全世界最小的小提琴”那种感觉，但我……
And so this is, the world's tiniest violin thing, but I...
这对我来说其实挺有道理的。
It actually does make sense to me.
他们说，两千万美元以内，你还会想，我该怎么好好利用这笔钱？
So they say that up to $20,000,000, you're still thinking, how do I use this resource well?
他们说超过那个数，就跟大富翁游戏里的钱一样了。
And they say anything above that, it's like monopoly money.
它不会。
It doesn't.
它没有意义。
It has no meaning.
它曾经……
It had...
就是说，它会把你搞砸。
Like, it screws you up.
我觉得稀缺感在生活里是有帮助的。
Think scarcity is is is is helpful in in life.
对。
Yes.
我
I
同意。
agree.
而且钱太多的时候，你会觉得，你需要
And having too much money where you're like, you need to
永远不用做任何决定。
Never have to make a decision about anything.
想做什么就做什么。
It's Whatever you like, you do.
哦，我要不要再买一辆法拉利？
Oh, should I get another Ferrari?
我猜这会变得非常单调。
It becomes very, monotonous, I'm guessing.
好的。
Okay.
我想再提供一个数据点，来说明我们国家有多富裕。
I wanna give one more data point on how rich we are as a nation.
因为说我们现在是历史上最富有的社会，听起来有点奇怪。
Because it's weird to say that, like, we are the richest society in history right now.
此时此刻，没有任何一个社会比美利坚合众国更富有。
There's never been a society that's richer than The United States Of America at this moment right now.
对吧？
Okay?
如果我们经历经济崩溃或下行周期之类的，那会很痛苦，但就现在而言。
It's gonna be painful if we go through a crash or a down cycle or whatever, but right now.
有人给我发了篇《纽约客》的文章，讲的是我们美国人对自助仓储设施的痴迷。
So someone sent me this New Yorker about how we are the the American religion of self storage facilities.
你以前用过自助仓储设施吗？
Have you ever used a self storage facility before?
当然用过。
Sure.
你用过的，就是把东西堆在车库或者什么地方。
You've you've used where you you block stuff in a garage or whatever.
我用过，对，大概用了六个月左右。
I use it for, yeah, for six months or something as
比如当你……
Like when you...
比如搬家的时候。
When you're moving or something.
所以有更多的自助存储……
So there are more self store...
我喜欢这些……
I love these...
有更多的自助……
There are more self...
我喜欢这样的数据点。
I love data points like this.
美国的自助仓储设施数量，比星巴克、麦当劳、沃尔玛、家得宝、达美乐、唐恩都乐和开市客加起来的总数还要多。
There are more self storage facilities in The US than there are Starbucks, McDonald's, Walmart's, Home Depot, Domino's, Dunkin' Donuts, and Costco's combined.
美国是全球最大的储物单元市场，占据了全球大约90%的容量。
The United States is the world leader in storage units, roughly 90% of global capacity.
所以这算是美国特有的现象，我们囤积了太多杂物，不得不把它们放到别的地方去。
So this is a this is a United States thing where we have so much junk that we have to put it somewhere else.
而且他们提到，2022年黑德cker的一项调查显示，全国超过三分之一的住宅车库因为塞满了溢出的物品，导致车主根本无法把车停进去。
And they said that this survey in 2022 from Black and Decker found that more than a third of the country's residential garages were so full of overflow possessions that their owners were unable to park their cars in them.
你应该见过这种。
You've seen this.
每条街上总有一两户人家，你路过他们家车库时……
Everyone has a house or two on their on their street where you go by the garage when...
门开着，你就会忍不住感叹：天哪。
Door when it's open, and you go, oh my gosh.
看看里面堆了多少东西。
Look at all that stuff.
比如说，他们的车都停不进车库了，因为里面塞满了东西。
Like, they can't fit their cars into the garage because they have so much stuff in there.
这就是我们整个国家有多富有的体现。
This is how rich we are collectively as a nation.
我们的东西多到家里都放不下了。
We can't fit all our stuff in our houses anymore.
所以回到我之前说的那个更大的观点，就是关注负面的事情。
And so just getting back to the bigger point I was making about focus on the negative.
显然，可以理解的是，现在有很多人正在艰难挣扎，被通货膨胀压得喘不过气来，这样的人有数千万，同时也有数千万的人钱多到不知道该怎么花……
It it is obviously understandably up that there are so many people struggling big time getting crushed by inflation, and there's tens of millions of these people, and there's also tens of millions of people that have more money than they know...
他们都可以用钱来擦屁股了。
They can wipe their ass with
对。
it.
但我们却把时间花在……
But we spend...
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