聊聊你的书：现金来得容易……接下来怎么办？

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Today's Animal Spirits Talk Your Book is brought to you by Federated Hermes.

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欢迎收听《Animal Spirits》，一档关于市场、生活和投资的节目。

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.

加入Michael Batnick和Ben Carlson，一起聊聊他们在读、在写、在看的内容。

Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.

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欢迎来到《动物精神》节目。

Welcome to Animal Spirits.

我是迈克尔和本。

I'm Michael and Ben.

今天节目中，我们采访了Federated Hermes的ETF业务总监Brandon Clark，聊了聊收益问题，以及投资者在当前收益率曲线形态下的行为和反应。

On today's show, we spoke with Brandon Clark, ETF business director at Federated Hermes, about income and how investors are behaving and responding to the shape of the yield curve today.

我的看法是，投资者对收益考虑得太多，而对经济和市场环境可能发生变化时会发生什么考虑得不够。

My read on the situation is that investors are thinking too much about income and not enough about what might happen if the economic and market environment shifts.

也就是说，他们基本上是在风险曲线上往前推？

Meaning they're pushing out on risk curve essentially?

不，恰恰相反。

No, the opposite.

好的。

Okay.

他们对现金太放心了，因为

They're getting too comfortable with cash because

哦，他们更偏向短期。

Oh, they're more on the short term side of things.

对。

Yeah.

他们就说，哎呀，我不想，我不想把投资期限拉长。

They're like, oh, I don't want I don't wanna go out on the curve.

你看市场波动这么大，但我还是有收益。

Look how much volatility there is, and I'm still getting paid.

但这其实忽略了方程式中非常关键的一部分。

But that's that's missing a really key part of the equation.

所以，大家基本上已经习惯了利率上升的环境，他们假装这种投资方式会持续很久，但实际上可能不会。

So peep people have gotten comfortable in a rising rate environment essentially, that they're pretend they're investing like that is going to last much longer than it might essentially.

所以

So

他们没想过，等等。

not thinking about, well, wait a minute.

如果联邦基金利率下降50个基点，而我错过了长期锁定利率的机会，那会怎么样？

What happens if Fed fund rates goes down by 50 basis points and I miss the ability to lock in rates for a longer period of time?

如果经济环境变软，通胀下降，然后5%的收益率降到4%，而债券价格上涨了3%，那又会怎么样？

What happens if the economic environment softens and inflation comes in lower and then the 5% is now down to 4% and the bonds are up 3%?

我觉得他们就是太关注收益这块了。

Like, I just think they're just hyper focused on the income component.

有道理。

That's fair.

如果六七年前有人跟你说，十年期国债收益率会到4.7%，三十年期的会到5.3%，你现在会锁定这个利率吗？

If you would have said six or seven years ago, hey, the ten year is gonna be at 4.7 and the thirty year is gonna be at 5.3, would you lock that in now?

会啊。

Yeah.

全都给我。

Give give me all of it.

所有人都会说愿意。

Everyone would have said yes.

现在真到了这一步，大家反而开始惊呼，哇。

And now we're there, people are going, woah.

哇。

Woah.

哇。

Woah.

但如果三十年期涨到6%，十年期涨到5.5%呢？

But what if the thirty year goes to six, and what if the five the ten year goes to five and a half?

我想在这种情况下，人们都想抓住最高点或最低点。

People wanna catch the top or the bottom in this case I suppose.

对。

Yes.

有道理，但很难相信我们已经到了这个地步，我们称之为更正常化，或者收益率上升或稳定，你说得对，没人愿意碰它们。

That makes sense, but it is hard to believe that we've gotten to this place where we call it more normalized or just rising or stable yields, and you're right, and no one wants to touch them.

我肯定感到安慰。

I definitely comfort.

我肯定不是这个观点。

I definitely am not of the opinion.

嘿。

Hey.

嘿。

Hey.

叮铃铃。

Ding a ling.

把你的钱从现金里拿出来，投到三十年期的债券里。

Take your money out of cash and put it into thirty year bonds.

我不是这个意思。

It's not what I'm saying.

对。

Right.

但你知道，我觉得在这里非黑即白不是正确的做法，而且把所有钱都放在现金里可能也不是正确的做法。

But I you know, it's not it's I don't think all I don't think all or nothing is the right approach here, and all of it being in cash is probably not the right approach.

我觉得大多数人不会这么做，但确实有很多钱在现金里待得很舒服。

I I don't think most people are doing that, but I think there's a lot of money that is that is very comfortable in cash.

是的。

Yeah.

而且就像你说的，如果美联储因为经济增长放缓而降息，我们进入衰退或者别的什么原因，其实也不一定非得是衰退。

And to your point, if the Fed does lower rates because growth slows and we go into recession or whatever the reason, it doesn't doesn't even have to be a recession really.

可能只是通胀放缓，美联储因为担心AI泡沫破裂之类的而降息，到那时候可能就太晚了，你会错过债券的行情。

It could just be inflation slows and the Fed cuts rates because they're worried about AI bubble bursting or whatever it is, by that point, it's probably too late and you miss the moving bonds.

对，

Correct,

本。

Ben.

对吧？

Right?

然后你就拿着低收益的现金，心里想，哎呀，糟糕。

And then you're sitting in lower cash and you go, oh, no.

什么？

What?

而那些做期权收益的人，那显然是另一种风险。

And the people who are in the option income stuff, that's a different type of risk, obviously.

这里面有股票相关的风险。

There's equity related risk there.

对。

Right.

总之，我们聊了聊收入的不同角度。

Anyway, we talked about all these different angles of income.

下面是我们和布兰登·克拉克的对话，来自联合爱马仕。

Here's our talk with Brandon Clark, Confederated Hermes.

布兰登，欢迎来到节目。

Brandon, welcome to the show.

谢谢邀请。

Thanks for having me.

好的。

Alright.

今天我们要聊所有和收入相关的话题，不只是固定收益方面，还有客户和他们的顾问如何构建投资组合来产生收入。

So today, we're gonna be covering all things income related, not just on the fixed side, but how, how clients and their advisors are structuring portfolios to deliver income.

在深入之前，我想确认一下，你是我们邀请来的第一位来自富达赫梅斯（Federated Hermes）的代表。这名字可别跟那个奢侈品牌或者迷宫搞混了。

Before we get into that, I I believe that you're the first person we've had on from the firm, Federated Hermes, not to be confused with the luxury brand or Maze.

能简单介绍一下这家公司的背景吗？

Tell us a little bit about the background of the firm.

我们是一家全球性的资产管理公司，专注于主动管理策略。

We're a global asset manager focused on active strategies.

我就从这点开始说起吧。

I'll start there.

我们管理的资产规模大约九千亿美元，这在共同基金领域算是很大的体量了。

We've got about $900,000,000,000 in assets under management, which puts us in a mutual fund context.

你知道的，我们排在前十名之内。

You know, we're we're inside the top 10.

所以我们的业务规模相当大。

And so we're we're a large business.

这家公司已经存在近七十年了。

It's been around for almost seventy years.

你知道，我们的重点，我觉得，主要是在货币市场，或者说我们大部分资产都集中在货币市场。

You know, our focus, I'd say, primarily has been around money market or where most of our assets are concentrated around money markets.

所以，你知道，就是基于我们在货币市场的能力。

So, you know, just given our our capabilities around money markets.

话虽如此，我们主要是通过中介销售，或者说过去一直是通过中介销售的。

That being said, I mean, we're we're largely intermediary or have been intermediary sold.

所以我觉得我们的客户群主要是从顾问圈认识我们的，因为那是我们主要的销售渠道。

So I'd say our client base largely knows us from the advisor world, given the fact that that's been our main source of distribution.

而且我们真的专注于帮助顾问解决问题，对吧？

And really, we focus on trying to help advisors solve problems, right?

所以当我们考虑这个的时候，就像，我们能做些什么来最好地为你服务，创造解决方案？

And so when we think about this, it's like, what can we do to best serve you in a way of creating solutions?

所以我们的很多投资策略都是围绕如何为客户或他们的客户解决某些问题。

And so a lot of our investment strategies are based around how do we solve certain problems for clients or their clients.

话虽如此，我们最近大约五年前进入了ETF业务，这显然为我们在零售领域打开了一个全新的世界。

That being said, we recently entered the ETF business about five years ago, and that obviously opens up a whole new world for us when it comes to retail.

大多数公司，我是说传统的资产管理公司，如果他们是通过中介销售的，进入这个领域后，ETF的世界就为他们打开了整个可投资的客户群体。

Where most firms, I'll say traditional asset managers, have gotten into this business, if they have been intermediary sold, the ETF world just kind of opens up the entire investable universe in terms of clients.

那你们现在提供的最大的解决方案是什么？

So what are the biggest solutions that you're providing today?

人们来找你们主要是为了解决什么问题？

Where are people coming to you with?

他们想解决什么？

What what are they trying to solve?

对，我觉得这很复杂，因为我们的背景比较多样。

Yeah, I think it's multifaceted, just given kind of our background.

我想说的是，现在有很多不确定性。

What I would say is, you know, I think right now there's a lot of uncertainty.

我们可以讨论各种不确定性，比如地缘政治气候、利率、通胀，还有客户和顾问需要应对的各种潜在问题。

We can talk all about the uncertainty that's out there, it's around the geopolitical climate, whether it's around rates, inflation, you can go through all the different potential issues that are out there that clients and advisors are having to navigate.

他们真正关注的是，或者我们一直在寻找和尝试解决的，肯定是在固定收益方面，尤其是两年期以内的，在风险回报机会上有一定的吸引力。

What they really focus on or where we've been looking or trying to solve solutions, Definitely on a fixed income side, kind of two year and in space, having some attractiveness in terms of your risk return opportunities.

所以我们和很多顾问在讨论，怎么最好地管理投资组合中的那个收益部分。

And so we're having a lot of conversational advisors around how to best manage, we'll say, that income sleeve for portfolios.

布兰登，你提到了短期。

Brandon, you mentioned the short term.

《华尔街日报》有篇文章说，个人投资者不想把钱从现金里拿出来。

There was an article in The Wall Street Journal talking about how individual investors don't wanna get off cash.

货币市场基金里有3万亿美元，他们觉得债券的吸引力不够。

There's $3,000,000,000,000 in money market funds, and they don't find the opportunity set attractive in bonds.

我觉得这很大程度上是2022年留下的心理阴影。

I think a lot of that is PTSD from 2022.

你提到了不确定性。

You mentioned uncertainty.

我觉得现在市场上最大的问题，或者说至少是前五大的问题。

I I would say the number one area in the market right now or at least top five.

我不确定说最大是不是合适。

I don't know if number one is is is fair.

我觉得市场上不确定性最大的领域就是长期国债。

Area of the market that I see uncertainty is in long dated treasuries.

我们是在8月17号星期一录的这期节目，而三十年期国债收益率正在创出新高。

So we're recording this on Monday Monday, August 17, and the thirty year is breaking out to new highs.

自2007年6月以来，我们还没见过5.295%的水平。

We haven't been at 5.295% since June 2007.

所以这已经是很久很久以前的事了。

So it has been a long, long time.

我觉得有意思的是，长期债券的收益率，就像我刚才提到的，已经达到了很久以来的最高水平，但似乎没人想要碰它。

I do find it interesting that the income on long dated bonds, as I just mentioned, is at the highest level it's been in a long, long time, and nobody seems to want any part of it.

我明白，过去一年、过去五年你都可以这么说，而且回报一直是负的，波动很大，没有上涨。

Now I understand that you could have said this for the last year, last five years, and there's been negative returns, a lot of all all volatility and no upside.

到了某个时候，它们会不会变得有吸引力呢？

At some point, do they become attractive?

因为我知道我们要讨论收益，但我觉得债券潜在的升值空间，好像没听谁在谈论。

Because I know we're gonna talk about income, but I feel like the the the potential price appreciation on bonds is something that I'm not hearing anybody talk about.

经济衰退确实是存在的。

Recessions do exist.

如果经济走软，债券有可能带来一些收益。

It's possible that you get a boost from bonds if the economy softens.

你对当前形势怎么看，短期、长期，以及中间的机会？

What's your take on where we are short, long, and the opportunities in between?

再说一次，现在有很多不确定性。

Again, going back to there's a lot of uncertainty.

我也有你那种创伤后应激障碍的感觉，你知道，过去四五年里，我们看到了传统的60/40投资组合对大多数人有效，然后2022年来了，利率明显上升，真的对整体造成了很大伤害，固定收益方面有很多挑战，出现了负回报。

I'll echo your PTSD from, you know, this last four or five years here where we saw what was a traditional sixtyforty portfolio working for most, and then 2022 happens and we saw rates, you know, obviously obviously go up, and it really hurt the overall you know, there was a lot of challenges on the fixed income size term in terms of negative returns.

关于《华尔街日报》提到的货币和货币市场，我们显然是受益者。

To your point around The Wall Street Journal, money and money markets, obviously, we are a benefactor of that.

所以这对我们来说不一定是最糟糕的事情，但我想说的是，在某个时候，你知道，当我们和顾问以及客户交谈时，我一直在思考的挑战是，在某个时候你必须行动。

So it's not necessarily the worst thing in the world for us, but what I would say is at some point, you know, the the challenge I always think about when when we talk to advisers and and when we talk about clients is I think the challenge at some point is you've got to move.

你不可能总是能抄到底。

You're not going be able to necessarily catch the bottom on a lot of this stuff.

所以，这就是我们看到风险回报权衡开始显现的地方，稍微往曲线远端看，比如两年期，开始想办法锁定一些收益率并长期持有，这确实是有好处的。

So it's where we start to see that risk reward trade off out, call it a little bit further out in the curve, call it two years and in, starting to try to find ways to capture some of that yield and lock it in for longer is definitely, think, some benefit.

我觉得挑战在于，目前曲线长端的波动性太大了，对吧？

I think the challenge is there's just so much volatility on the long end of the curve right now, right?

所以顾问们面临的挑战是，如何让客户坚持到底。

And so advisors have the challenge of trying to have their clients stay the course.

这就涉及很多行为金融学的内容，尤其是在管理客户对未来预期方面。

And so there's a lot of behavioral finance in that when it comes to managing clients' expectations around on the go forward side of this.

你知道，我觉得问题在于，曲线远端，我们到了那个点了吗？

You know, I think the question becomes out on that far end of the curve, are we there yet?

对吧？

Right?

你知道，这是不是我们应该让客户去的地方，还是顾问们应该考虑的呢？

You know, is it is it something that we wanna be moving clients out into or do advisers?

有些客户是不是想把自己的客户推向那里，结果利率又像过去几周那样上涨了呢？

Do some clients wanna move their clients out there only to have rates go up again like we saw here over the last couple weeks?

然后转眼间，他们又想回到货币市场，回到现金。

And then next thing you know, they're wanting to go back into money market, go back into cash.

这对我来说很有道理，因为这是长期资产。

That makes sense to me because it's a long term asset.

它会波动更大。

It's gonna be more volatile.

如果人们想要收入，他们追求的是更稳定。

If people want income, they're looking for more stability.

这就是你想通过你的产品提供的吗？

Is that what you're trying to provide with your products?

你是更看重稳定性吗？

Are you are you looking more from stability?

人们是在寻找，不，我想要收入这块蛋糕增长，你知道，跟上通胀或者跑赢通胀？

Are people looking for, no, I want the income piece of the pie to grow, you know, and and go up with inflation or beat inflation?

我想要更高的收益率。

I want higher yields.

现在大家到底想要什么样的收入？

Like, what exactly are people looking for in terms of income these days?

我觉得在收入方面，有几种不同的做法，而且我们确实看到，在ETF行业，从资金流向来看，这种趋势很明显。

So I think in terms of income, there's a couple different approaches, and we're really seeing it in terms of, I'll say broadly in the ETF industry, broadly in terms of flows.

我觉得大家确实在寻求收入。

I think folks are looking for income.

至于怎么实现，就像我们刚才说的，长期债券可能不太适合，因为要让人们把资金全部投到那么长期限的产品上并锁定，可能有点困难。

How they're getting there, as we just discussed, the long end of the curve may not be the that might be a bit challenging for people to move all the way out there and lock those in.

但这些短期产品，客户确实很感兴趣。

But these shorter duration products, that's definitely of interest for clients.

所以我们看到人们关注短期产品，也就是两年以内的。

So we see people looking at that shorter end, again, inside of two years.

我们还看到很多人，在行业里也看到了，很多人关注这种备兑看涨期权衍生品收入类别，把它当作一种新的收入来源，可能从固定收益或股票投资组合中转移过来。

We also see a lot of people, we've seen this in the industry, we see a lot of people looking at this covered call derivative income category, and folks looking at that category as a new bucket or a new way to generate income and taking that from potentially their fixed income and or equity portfolio.

我们如何构建一个风险调整后收益最优的投资组合，既能产生收入，又能让客户保持投资，同时解决顾问在常规投资组合构建中遇到的所有挑战？

How do we best build a portfolio on a risk adjusted basis that generates income, keeps my client invested, and solve all the challenges that normal portfolio construction poses for advisors?

Brandon，在我们深入讨论那个类别之前，值得一提的是，虽然我们谈的是收入，但有一类投资者，显然是年纪较大的客户，他们非常喜欢收入。

Brandon, before we get into that category, it's worth mentioning, and I know we're talking about an income, but investors certain cohort of investors, obviously, the older the on the older side of clients, they love income.

我完全理解他们为什么这样。

And I totally understand why.

我的意思是，你不需要绞尽脑汁去搞清楚这是怎么回事。

I mean, it's not you don't have scratch your head and figure out what's going on here.

我不知道人们从哪个水平开始不再以实际价值思考，但我发现人们是以名义价值来考虑收入的。

I don't know what the level is where people stop thinking in in real terms, but I found that people think about income nominally.

他们不会想，哦，天哪。

They don't think like, oh, oh, man.

我的现金给了我3.25%的收益，但通胀还在3%左右。

My cash has given me 3.25%, but inflation's still running at three or whatever it is.

我实际上只比通胀高出25个基点。

I'm only actually getting 25% 25 basis points above inflation.

他们从来不会那样想。

They never think like that.

我不是说这有什么不对的。

And I'm not saying that's, like, wrong or anything.

事实就是这样。

It's a fact.

你可能不喜欢。

You might not like it.

你可能会说这不理性。

You might say it's not rational.

但那不重要。

It doesn't matter.

人们就是喜欢名义收入。

People love nominal income.

我同意。

I agree.

我觉得我们在很多备兑看涨策略和衍生品收入领域都能看到这一点。

And I think we see that in a lot of these covered call strategies, that derivative income space.

你可以把这个类别再细分成不同的策略类型。

You can divide that bucket into different strategy types.

我们看到那些单只股票，它们的分红高得惊人。

We've seen the single stocks which have these mind boggling distribution payouts.

对，80%的收益率。

Yeah, 80% income.

顺便说一句，从总回报的角度来看，我总是建议要从总回报来考虑，因为你可以获得很高的分红收益率，但你仍然面临股票的风险。

Which by the way, when you think about it on a total return basis, from my perspective, always think about it in total return because you can generate a lot of distribution yield, but you're still exposed to the equity.

所以有那类人和那些产品，他们追逐分红，但这可能并不适合他们。

So you've got that cohort and those types of products where people are chasing a distribution, which may or may not be right for them.

我觉得还有另一类人，他们从名义数字的角度来看待收入。

I think you also have this other cohort of folks who are thinking about income from the standpoint of it is just a nominal number.

而且从财务规划的角度来看，我们总是有那些目标。

And I think from a financial planning standpoint, we always have those targets.

我需要每年产生20万美元的收入才能实现我的退休目标。

I need to generate $200,000 a year to meet my retirement goals.

所以大家关注的就是那个名义数字。

And so the nominal number is what folks that's what they focus on.

你知道，我觉得在某种程度上，大家是被训练成这么想的。

That's you know, I I'd say to some extent, that's what that's what folks are kinda trained to to think about.

我觉得这部分说得通。

I I think that part makes sense.

我不反对。

I don't disagree.

你得做预算。

You gotta you gotta budget.

对吧？

Right?

确实得做预算。

You do have to budget.

对。

Yeah.

100块。

A 100

人们做预算，不是按名义金额做预算。

And people budget, not people budget nominally.

我是说，显然的。

I mean, obviously.

同意。

Agreed.

所以，对我来说，关键是我们怎么给他们提供可以自由组合的解决方案。

And so, you know, to me, the the big thing is how do we create solutions for them to mix and match.

对吧？

Right?

我一直觉得ETF已经变成了一个工具箱。

I always think about ETFs become have become much more of a toolkit.

对吧？

Right?

我在管理整个投资组合。

I'm running a whole portfolio.

我想怎么调整我的投资组合，不管是固定收益、股票还是另类资产？

How do I wanna tilt my portfolio, whether it's fixed income, whether it's equity, whether it's some alternative bucket?

我该怎么调整我的投资组合来实现这些目标？

How do I tilt my portfolio to achieve those outcomes?

对吧？

Right?

而且一般来说，尤其是那些准备退休的人，他们肯定在想，怎么才能在年底达到那个数字。

And and generally speaking, especially when you're on the retirement side, for those who are in the retirement side, they're definitely thinking about, you know, how do I how do I meet that number at the end of the year?

所以我很想知道，ETF是怎么改变游戏规则的。

So I'm curious if you can talk about how ETFs have kinda changed the gamer.

因为你提到你最开始做货币市场基金，然后是共同基金，现在做ETF，而且这几年用期权等工具来操作ETF真的是爆发式增长，对很多人来说这还是新鲜事。

Because you mentioned that you started out in money market funds and then mutual funds and now ETFs, and there's just been this explosion in recent years in using tools like options for ETFs, and this is still relatively new for a lot of people.

大家一直在通过卖出看涨期权或看跌期权来赚取收入，但现在有了ETF这个载体，你就讲讲ETF对收入这块带来了什么变化吧。

People have been, you know, selling calls or selling puts to generate income, but now that you can do it in this ETF wrapper, just talk about what the ETF has done to the income space.

所以我觉得这非常有意思。

So I think it's very interesting.

我在ETF行业差不多二十年了，所以做ETF很久了，我见证了很多演变，从指数化到所谓的智能贝塔或者另类指数化，再到现在的主动管理。

So I've been in the ETF business for almost twenty years, So I've been working on ETFs for a long time, I've seen a lot of the evolution from the indexing world to, you know, I'll call that smart beta or alternative indexing, to where we are in active.

这个收益板块，我觉得在好几个层面上都很有意思。

This income bucket, I think, is very interesting on several levels.

第一，我觉得投资者整体上对收益来源变得更加深思熟虑了。

One, I think investors as whole have become much more thoughtful about how that income comes to them.

举个例子，二十年前我刚进入ETF领域时，资本返还听起来是个很负面的词，特别是在基金支付资本返还的时候。

And as an example, twenty years ago, as I was getting in the ETF world, you know, return of capital seemed to be a very negative term when it came to paying out return of capital from a fund.

现在，在追求收益的时候，这几乎是人们主动寻求的东西。

Now, it's almost something that people are seeking when it comes to this income.

所以我觉得ETF世界，能够管理资本利得，管理税务，手上有这么多不同的工具，你有能力把分配变成资本返还。

So I think the ETF world, being able to manage capital gains, being able to manage taxes, having all these different levers at its disposal, you're you have the ability to potentially take distributions and turn them into return of capital.

而且我觉得客户中，确实有一些投资者倾向于这类策略。

And and I think clients are I think we have some investors who gravitate towards those types of strategies.

我们再次看到，无论是在产品开发方面，还是在资金流动方面。

Again, we're seeing it in the whether it's in the product development side, whether it's in the asset flows.

你知道，我们看到了几批不同的衍生品收入出现。

You know, we kinda saw a couple different cohorts of the derivative income come out.

有些只是单纯地支付收入。

We had some who were just playing paying out income.

然后还有另一批，可以说是下一代的，他们试图基本上把股息收入或分配收入转化为资本回报。

Then we had another cohort who was that came out, I'll say, next iteration that came out looking to, I'll say, basically transform the dividend income or that distribution income into return of capital.

现在你开始看到，可以说是标普500和QQQ策略的替代品，这些正在改变股票的构成。

And now you're starting to see, I'll say, the alternatives to what are those S and P 500 and Q strategies, which is changing the equity composure.

对吧？

Right?

所以如果我的基础股票是标普500或QQQ，那我的风险敞口就在那里，尤其是在下行时。

So if I have S and P 500 or Qs as my base equity, that's what I'm exposed to, especially on the downside.

我觉得可能在下行时影响更大。

I I think it's probably more impactful on the downside.

我们还没真正经历过那种长时间大幅回撤的市场环境。

We haven't really seen an environment where we had really large drawdowns for extended periods of time.

但这些新出来的产品，可以说是另类股票，它们对股票敞口有不同的看法，ETF 也开始在这些不同的风格中不断迭代。

But these new cohorts coming out that are, I'll say, alternative equities where different views of equity around what they give you exposure to is where ETFs are starting to, again, iterate through the different styles that are out there.

Brandon，我要问你一个问题，我觉得你不太可能答得上来，但我很想听听你的看法。

Brandon, I'm gonna ask you a question that I don't think you could possibly answer, but I'd be curious to hear your opinion.

这些另类股票策略，咱们说说那些产生收入的期权叠加策略吧。

These alternative equity strategies, let's talk about the option overlays that are generating income.

你觉得这些产品里，有多少投资者是真的在花这些收入，而不是把它再投资，或者只是当作投资组合的一部分？

What percentage of investors in these products do you think are actually using the income versus just reinvesting and just having it as part of their portfolio?

因为我猜，其实你知道吗？

Because I would suspect actually, you know what?

我不想左右你的想法。

I don't wanna call your thinking.

你怎么看？

What do you think?

所以我显然不知道。

So I obviously don't know.

我是说，很难确切地说清楚。

I mean, it's very hard to put a put a finger on it.

我就从我个人对这个问题的看法说起吧。

I'll just start from my personal view on this.

当你开始综合看我们听到的客户反馈，或者说，那些直接自己动手的散户投资者，我觉得确实有一部分人是在用这些产品来获取收入。

When you start to look at the composite of feedback that we hear from clients and or, I'll say that, the direct DIY type investors, I think there is definitely a cohort using them for income.

我确实认为有些投资者可能把这些策略看作一种方式，能让他们在这条路上走得更远。

I do think there are investors out there who are probably looking at these strategies as a way to kind of get them further down that path.

这很难说。

It's hard.

真的很难判断这些资产中有多少是这种情况，但我确实认为，可能有些投资者更多是把这些当作达到目的的手段，为了未来的某个目标，而不是为了当前的退休生活。

It's really hard to tell where where a lot of these assets are, but I do think there are that, you know, there are probably some investors out there who are using these more as a means to an end to get somewhere in the in the future versus where they are right now in terms of retirement.

好的。

Alright.

本·卡尔森，我给你设个上下限吧。

Ben Carlson, I'll set the over under for you.

实际从这些产品中提取收入的人有30%。

30% of people that are actually taking the the income from these products.

用于消费目的吗？

For spending purposes?

那可能差不多。

That's probably yeah.

那可能差不多，胜算挺高的。

That's probably pretty close to good odds.

哦，谢谢。

Oh, thank you.

我们就不回答了。

We won't even answer.

不。

No.

那还不错。

That's not bad.

我其实也在想这个，特别是从税务的角度来看。

I was thinking this too on the on the taxable side of things.

你觉得人们有多在意这些收入的税务问题？

Like, how how much do you think people care about the taxes on these on this income?

就是说，人们会不会真的考虑到这一点，还是说根本不在乎？

Like, do do does that come into play at all where people think about that, or or is it just, no.

不会。

No.

不会。

No.

我担心的是收益率本身。

I worry about the amount of the yield.

所以你不会……

So you don't

但你不觉得这很有趣吗？

think But isn't that funny?

我觉得税完全是另一回事。

I I think taxes are a totally separate bucket.

对，没错。

Like, Yeah.

心理上

Mentally

这有点像心理账户。

It's kind of mental accounting.

布兰登，你怎么看？

Brandon, what do How like

我觉得我不同意这个观点。

I think I would disagree with that.

我觉得我会选择……我认为税很重要。

I think I'd take the I think taxes are important.

哦，我觉得它们非常重要，但我认为你可能太高估投资者了。

Oh, I think they're very important, but I I I think you might be giving investors too much credit.

不是冒犯我们这些投资者，但请继续。

No offense to us investors, but go ahead.

但他也在和顾问合作，对吧。

But he he's he's also working with advisers, though.

所以我觉得顾问们可能很在意这些税收的处理方式，因为确实如此。

So I think the advisers probably care about how these the treatment of these taxes are because it's True.

我考虑的是最终投资者，可能不是顾问或投资者，但确实。

I'm not I'm not I'm thinking I'm thinking of the end investor and maybe not the adviser or investor, but yeah.

说得好。

Good good point.

但也许你可以谈谈税收方面的事情，以及这对人们在这些方面是如何运作的。

But maybe why don't you talk a little about the the the tax side of things and how that works for people on these?

好的。

Yeah.

我觉得税收这块，确实大家都会关注，我想我们都能一致认为每个人都关心税收。

I think the tax side of it so I do think people look, I think we can all collectively say everybody cares about taxes.

对吧？

Right?

我觉得大多数人总是在考虑税收问题。

I think most people are always thinking about taxes.

我觉得流入这个类别的资金也印证了这一点，你知道，大家确实很在意税收。

I think the flows into this category reinforce a bit of the you know, there is a there is a care about taxes on this.

所以，行业开发这些产品的方式有好几种。

So there's a couple different ways that I'll say the industry has developed these products.

我们制定了一个策略，我一会儿会详细讲，这也是我认为现在大部分资金流向的地方。

So we we developed a strategy, and and I'll I'll cover that in a second, which is kinda why I think where most of the assets are going now.

但我要说，早期的做法之一就是使用股票挂钩票据。

But I'll say, you know, one of the early iterations of this was where the the you can use equity linked notes.

股票挂钩票据基本上就是从投资组合中产生票息支付、债券支付。

So equity linked notes are basically, I'll say coupon payments, bond payments out of a portfolio.

当它出来的时候，那就是收入。

When that comes out, it's income.

所以它被当作收入处理。

So it's treated as income.

这个产品的下一个版本，也就是我们在开发时走的那条路。

The next iteration of this, which is the the path we had taken or or have taken when we developed.

就是PAYR，p a y r，这是它的代码。

So PAYR, p a y r is the ticker.

我们开发那个产品的时候，用的是期权。

When we developed that, we used options.

期权的好处是，你可以把期权收入当作资本回报来处理，只要你的支出，如果你有一个期权已经分配了但实际上亏损了，我是说如果期权是实值的，我们不得不平仓，那么你基本上可以把它变成资本回报，如果你把它分配出去的话。

The benefit of options is you have the ability to take that option income and treat it as return of capital to the extent that what you're paying out, if you have an option that you distributed but it actually lost, I'll say if the option was in the money and we had to close that out, you have the ability to basically it becomes a return of capital if you distribute it.

所以客户看到这个会说，我可以为我的客户创造收入，尤其是现在，当你想到顾问们需要考虑的所有事情时。

And so clients look at that and say, I can generate income for my clients, especially now when you think about all the things that advisors are having to think about.

如果我能创造一些收入，我们可以称之为另一条腿，但当你仔细想想，你有延税的账户，你有罗斯的免税账户，然后你还有应税账户。

If I can generate some income that is, we'll call it another leg of the stool, but when you think about it, you have your tax deferred, you've got your, you know, your Roth tax, we'll call it taxes exempt, then you have your taxable accounts.

如果我有一个应税账户，能产生一些收入，那基本上就是额外的收入或额外的分配，作为顾问，这就成了一个非常强大的工具。

If I have a taxable account that can generate some income that's essentially additional income or additional distribution, as an advisor, that creates a very powerful tool.

在退休规划，也就是这个消耗资产的阶段，这确实是一个非常强大的工具。

That's a very powerful tool when it comes to planning in retirement, this decumulation phase.

对吧？

Right?

所以我需要管理我的罗斯账户的分配。

So I need to manage my Roth distributions.

我有罗斯账户的分配来帮助我的整体收入。

I have my Roth distributions to kind of help my overall income.

我还有我的IRA和401(k)，这些是应税的，对吧？

I got my IRAfour zero one, which is taxable, right?

然后你还要考虑RMD，以及所有顾问们需要一起考虑的事情，来管理税务，让客户保持在收入限制以下，比如IRMAA，你想想他们需要处理的所有这些事情。

Then you get into RMDs, and all the things that come together that advisers have to think about to manage taxes and keep their clients, whether it's, you know, under an income limit for Irma, whether it's you know, you think about all the things that they have to they have to manage through.

这对他们来说是个很好的工具。

It's it's a great tool for them.

归根结底，这对他们来说是个很好的工具。

At the end of the day, it's a great tool for them.

那跟我们聊聊你们是怎么用期权的吧，因为就像我说的，现在这是个很大的领域，而且看起来增长很快。

So talk to us about what you're you guys are doing using options because, as I said, it's it's a huge category now, and it seems like there's a lot of growth there.

投资者对这方面兴趣很大。

There's a lot of interest from investors.

那你们是怎么考虑在策略中使用期权的呢？

So how do you guys think about using options in your strategies?

对，我们是这样做的。

Yeah, so here's how we do that.

我们首先还是从一个高股息收益率的投资组合开始。

We have, again, we start with a high dividend yielding portfolio.

再说一遍，高股息收益率的投资组合有它的好处。

Again, there's benefits to a high dividend yielding portfolio.

第一，因为它的股票敞口和标普500或者纳斯达克100指数基金很不一样。

One, because just the equity exposure is very different than the S and P or S and P 500 or the Qs.

对吧？

Right?

所以当你想要产生收入时，拥有一个高股息收益率的投资组合，可能会让你朝着你期望的方向走。

So when you're trying to generate income, having a high dividend yield portfolio gets you potentially, you know, some direction where where you're trying to target.

你们在使用这些股息股的时候，这个策略是不是也基于这样的想法：这些股票波动不大，不会出现大幅波动，而且不容易被行权或赎回？

Do you all when you you use those dividend, is there else is that strategy also based on the idea that these aren't highly volatile stocks that are gonna see some huge moves and they're not going to get taken out very easily and get called?

我们不会在底层策略上写这些期权，但使用它们的好处是，它们的贝塔值通常较低，相对于整个投资组合来说。

We don't write them on the underlying strategy, but the the benefit of using those is they do tend to have a lower beta to the portfolio.

对吧？

Right?

所以它们的波动性更小。

So they they have less volatility.

所以你们是用股息股，然后基本上用指数期权？

So you're using dividend stocks and what then using index options essentially?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我们那个高股息投资组合，确实能为客户降低波动性。

So we have you know, again, that high that that high dividend yielding portfolio has the potential to create just less volatility for the client.

再想想标普500。

Again, if you think about that S and P 500.

我们构建一个投资组合，或者说我们管理一个投资组合。

So we we generate a portfolio or we run a portfolio.

实际上，这个策略是基于一个我们运行了几十年的股息投资组合，它本身是一个共同基金策略。

Matter of fact, it's based off of a mutual fund strategy that's just a dividend portfolio that we've been running for decades.

我们利用这些股票，你可以把它们想象成蓝筹股。

So we jet we we utilize those stocks, and this is your you know, think about your blue chip securities.

我们不是那种标普500，包含MAG七之类的。

We don't have the you know, it's not necessarily the S and P 500 with the MAG seven, etcetera.

这就是一个高股息的蓝筹股投资组合。

This is just a high dividend blue chip portfolio.

然后我们用指数期权来产生额外的分配，对吧，因为不一定总是收入，但确实是为了增加额外收入。

We then use index options to generate additional distributions, right, because it's not always income, but but to generate that additional income.

所以我们在上面叠加使用指数期权。

So we use index options as an overlay on top of it.

我们知道的是，而且我想说我们是如何迭代这个策略的，我们确实知道，如果你在某个点位卖出标普500期权，显然，当标普指数突破那个点位时，你就会开始出现负收益的情况。

What what we do know, and and I'd say how we've iterated this strategy, is we do know that if you're writing S and P 500 options at some number, obviously, as the S and P as the S and P, you know, if it goes through that, it you start to have a negative return profile.

所以我们做的是，我们实际上卖出看涨期权，然后反过来。

So what we've done is we actually we we sell calls and and then turn around.

我们运行一个看涨期权，我们称之为看涨价差。

We we run a call we'll call it a call spread.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们基本上是卖出看涨期权，然后买入更远一点的看涨期权，以锁定一定金额的收入。

So we're basically selling calls and then buying calls a little bit further out to target a certain amount of income.

卖出看涨期权然后买入看涨期权的好处是，如果标普指数继续上涨。

The benefit of writing calls and then buying calls is the S and P continues to go higher.

我们不会一直亏损到下一个期权，直到我们滚动到下一组期权。

We don't you know, we're not losing all the way until that next option, you know, until we roll that next set of options.

回到我们之前聊的，关于我们现在所处的位置，以及作为顾问和投资者所处的环境，现在这个环境对于创造收入来说，要好得多，健康得多。

Just stepping back to the earlier part of the conversation about where we are, what type of environment we're in today as advisors and investors, this is a much, much better, healthier environment for generating income.

我记得在我职业生涯早期，2013年我们参加了一个会议，有人跟我们说不要买股票，去买垃圾债券，作为重新踏入股市的一种方式。

I remember early in my career, we took a meeting in 2013 with somebody who was talking to us about not buying stocks, about buying junk bonds as as a way to, like, dip our toe back in the stock market water.

我觉得我们现在已经远远脱离了那种环境。

And I feel like we are so far on the other side of that environment.

那时候的“试水”跟当时的利率水平没什么关系，更多的是投资者行为的特点，以及在你所处的环境中寻找机会。

Now that that toe dipping had nothing to do with where interest rates were at the time, but just the, like, the the nature of investor behavior and fishing in the pond that you're in.

所以从2013年到2019年，80/20策略成了新的60/40策略，因为利率是零。

And so from 2013 to 2019, 8020 was a new sixty forty because interest rates were zero.

那时候真的没什么上涨空间。

It there was really very little upside.

有趣的是，顾问和投资者在应该寻找机会的时候，却对债券感到失望，我觉得是这样。

And it's funny how advisers, investors feel burned by bonds at the time where you should be looking for opportunities, I think.

联邦基金利率从下限，基本上就是零，一路升到了5%。

The Fed funds rate went from the lower bound at at basically zero up to 5%.