畅聊你的书：高利率如何重塑商业地产

今天的《Animal Spirits Talk Your Book》由Benefit Street Partners赞助，这是一家富兰克林坦伯顿旗下的公司。

Today's Animal Spirits Talk Your Book is brought to you by Benefit Street Partners, a Franklin Templeton company.

想了解更多，请访问ftprivatemarkets.com。

Go to ftprivatemarkets.com to learn more.

欢迎收听《Animal Spirits》，一档关于市场、生活和投资的节目。

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.

加入迈克尔·巴特尼克和本·卡尔森，一起聊聊他们正在读、正在写和正在看的内容。

Join Michael Batnick Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.

迈克尔和本表达的所有观点仅代表他们个人，不代表Ritholtz财富管理公司的立场。

All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

本播客仅供信息参考，不应作为任何投资决策的依据。

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.

Ritholtz财富管理公司的客户可能持有本播客中讨论的证券头寸。

Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

欢迎收听迈克尔和本主持的《Animal Spirits》。

Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.

迈克尔，时代变化时最有趣的一点就是人们喜欢预测未来会发生什么，但大多数时候，人们都猜错了。

Michael, one of the most fun things about changing times is that people love to predict what's gonna happen, and most of the time, people are wrong.

但想想疫情刚结束的时候，有很多关于世界将如何改变的预测。

But think about coming out of the pandemic, there was a ton of this is how the world is going to change.

还记得吗，当时有人说以后没人会再握手了。

Remember there was, like, no one's ever gonna get handshakes anymore.

人们会在飞机上戴更多口罩。

People are gonna wear more masks on planes.

大学教育完了。

College is done.

所有这些预测。

All of these predictions.

旅行已经死了。

Travel is dead.

商务旅行已经死了。

Business travel is dead.

商务旅行正在蓬勃发展。

Business travel is booming.

这些都是人们曾经预测过的事情。

There's all these things that people predicted.

其中一个预测就是，好吧。

And one of them was, alright.

就这样了。

That's it.

商业房地产彻底完了，比死还惨。

Commercial real estate is just dead, deader than dead.

再也不会有人去办公室了。

No one's ever gonna go to an office again.

嗯，确实挺惨的。

Well, it is pretty dead.

我觉得可以说它

I think you could say it's

大部分已经死了。

Mostly dead.

更像是被千刀万剐慢慢折磨死的，而不是像人们说的那样一下子……

More of a death by a thousand cuts as opposed to like people...

还记得大家当时都觉得，好吧，商业地产要崩盘了。

Remember people thought like, okay, the commercial real estate crash.

这个故事，你、我和Josh大概聊了一个月。

That was a story that you and Josh and I talked about for probably a month.

当时还挺火的。

It was like a thing.

大家都在讨论，后来就慢慢淡了，然后你才意识到，哦，其实房地产不是那么回事。

People were discussing, and then it kind of moved on and you realized, oh, that's not how real estate works actually.

对。

No.

但商业地产确实崩了。

But commercial real estate really did crash.

是办公空间。

It's office space.

你解释一下。

Explain yourself.

办公空间是怎么崩的？

How did office space crash?

嗯，它的价值跌了很多。

Well, it went down a lot in value.

好的。

Okay.

哦，但确实是这样。

Oh, but it really did.

我是说，比如纽约市的甲级写字楼，表现还不错。

I mean, the class a buildings in New York City, for example, are doing just fine.

但天哪，你绝对不想待在人们不想待的地方。

But my god, you do not wanna be where people don't wanna be.

老一点的楼。

An older building.

已经死了。

It is dead.

再也回不来了。

Never coming back.

比如说，几年后我们在纽约的租约到期，要去找新办公室的时候，我们不会去那种七十年代的楼。

Like, when we go to look for new space whenever our lease runs up in a few years in New York City, we're not gonna go to some nineteen seventies building.

我们会去一个全新的、看起来不错的地方。

We're gonna go to a brand new spot that looks nice.

总之，现在做房地产真是有意思，因为利率在飙升，而经济又在繁荣。

Anyway, fascinating time to be in real estate because rates are shooting up and the economy's boom.

这感觉有点奇怪。

It's like it's like a weird thing to think about.

经济还在某种程度上繁荣，但利率在上涨，这让事情变得更难了。

The economy is still kind of booming, but rates are going up, making it more difficult.

所以今天节目请到了杰瑞·巴格利恩。

So on today's show, had Jerry Baglien.

杰瑞是富兰克林坦伯顿旗下Benefit Street Partners的房地产主管，我们聊了商业地产的方方面面，哪些地方有吸引力，哪些地方没吸引力。

Jerry is the head of real estate at Benefit Street Partners, a Franklin Templeton company, to talk about everything that's going on in commercial real estate, the spots that are attractive, the spots that are unattractive.

每当有大事发生的时候，我就特别喜欢和这个行业里的人聊天。

I I love talking to people in the space like this when, like, big things are happening.

如果现在房地产正火热，那对话就没那么有意思了，但现在是天哪，利率一个劲儿往上涨。

Like, if if if real estate was booming right now, it wouldn't be as interesting of a conversation as, oh my gosh.

利率一直在涨，涨个不停。

Rates keep going up and up and up.

涨得非常快。

They're going up really fast.

这意味着什么？

What does this mean?

杰瑞是个直来直去的人，一看就是当高管的料。

And Jerry is a straight shooter with upper management written all over him.

他说话很直接，有什么说什么。

He he told it like it is.

你之前提到了写字楼。

You said office space earlier.

那接下来就是我们和杰瑞·巴格利恩的对话。

So here's our talk with Jerry Baglien.

杰瑞，欢迎来到

Jerry, welcome to

我们的节目。

the show.

谢谢你们的邀请。

Thanks for having me, guys.

好的。

Alright.

我们先从宏观层面聊起，然后再深入看看房地产债务市场的几个不同领域。

We're gonna start out big picture, then we'll zoom in on some some different areas of the real estate debt market.

你觉得我们现在处于什么阶段？

How would you describe where we are right here?

我们是9月28号录的。

We're recording on September 28.

十年期国债收益率在飙升，这可是所有利率的基准，尤其是在房地产市场。

The ten year is screaming higher that it's a base rate for which all other rates are determined certainly in the real estate market.

救救我们吧。

Save us.

帮帮我们吧。

Help us.

利率这么疯涨，到底怎么回事？

What's going on with interest rates screaming higher?

你们来得真是时候。

Your timing is impeccable.

我今天接了七个电话，每个电话第一个问题都是这个。

I think I've done seven calls today, and that's been the first question in every single call.

如果人工智能没把我们干掉，那十年期国债收益率也会。

If AI doesn't kill us, the tenure will.

没错。

Exactly.

不，这已经不是当下的话题了。

No, it's beyond the topic du jour at this point.

我觉得这显然吓到了所有人，因为它在这么短的时间内涨得这么快。

Think it's scaring everyone clearly because it's ripped so fast in such a short period of time.

我觉得这给很多事情都蒙上了一层阴影。

It's putting a bit of a pall, I think, over a lot of different things.

这肯定会让交易量下降。

It's gonna slow down transaction volume for sure.

这会让再融资比以前更棘手，还会给估值带来压力。

It's gonna make refis trickier than they were, and it's gonna put pressure on valuation.

所以如果你在房地产行业，这些都是好事。

So all wonderful things if you're in the real estate business.

这正是你想要的，多重阻力同时出现。

It's exactly what you want, multiple headwinds all at once.

但同时也是机会，对吧？

But also opportunity, right?

我觉得大家都被吓到了，但这同时也意味着你得解决很多问题。

I think people are terrified by it, but it also means you're gonna have to solve a lot of problems.

所以我觉得恐惧不是正确的应对方式。

So I don't think fear is the right response.

我觉得你应该谨慎，但同时也要非常善于抓住机会。

I I think you should be cautious, but also very opportunistic.

这会让代理工作变得更具挑战性。

It's gonna make agency much more challenging.

这会压低估值，所以连再融资也会变得更棘手。

It's gonna depress valuations, so even refis get trickier.

而且我觉得这可能会迫使市场出现一些投降式抛售。

And I think it could force some capitulation in the market.

在我看来，这些都不算太糟糕。

Those aren't all terrible in my mind.

我觉得如果你资金充足，或者愿意创新，这些都是可以应对的。

I think those are all things you can attack if you're well capitalized or if you're willing to be inventive.

我知道大家都希望我只会唱衰，但那总是容易的，也许更受欢迎。

I think everyone's hoping that I'll just be all doom and gloom, but that's always easy, and maybe it's more popular.

但我认为，仅仅因为情况有点负面，就只唱衰，这不是唯一的回应。

But I don't believe it's the only response just because things got a little bit negative.

杰瑞，你知道吗，在一场体育比赛结束时，不管是什么运动，即使一支队伍被打得很惨，他们至少想做好一件事，这样他们就能把一些好的东西带到下一场比赛中。

Jerry, you know what, at the end of a a sporty event, doesn't matter with the sport, where a team gets killed, but they wanna at least, like, do one thing well so that they can take something good into the next game.

我觉得这在NFL里经常发生。

I feel like that happens a lot in the NFL.

比如，他们会说，好吧。

Like, they say, alright.

至少留下点东西，让我们能带到下一场比赛去。

Just put something on tape that we could take it to the next game.

听起来，即使我们可能……

It sounds like even though we might...

即使房地产市场已经低迷了一段时间，而且今天看起来也不会变得更容易，但一旦下一场比赛到来，投资者或许还是有值得期待的东西。

Even though the real estate market has been challenged for a while and it doesn't look like it's gonna get any easier today, there might be, there might be something that investors can look forward to once the next game happens.

我觉得没错。

I think that's right.

我的意思是，就我花大量时间关注的信贷领域而言，现在我对房地产交易中这一部分的信心比六个月前更强了。

I I mean, in terms of where where I'm spending a lot of my time, and that's on the credit side, this is just more conviction in that part of the real estate trade than I had six months ago.

我一直很放心在房地产领域的信贷方面进行投资，因为两年来我一直在说，我喜欢这种应对不确定性的缓冲。

I think I've been very comfortable investing on the credit side of the real estate space because I've been saying for two years, I love having that cushion for uncertainty.

你刚刚经历了一大波不确定性。

You just got a big dose of uncertainty.

在遭受损失之前，面前有30%到40%的缓冲，感觉会好很多。

Having a 30, 40% cushion in front of you before you take losses feels a lot better.

几年前我们经历了一次大幅的价值修正，但感觉并没有把所有需要解决、再融资或从净营业收入角度需要增长的问题都理顺。

We had a big correction in value a couple years ago, but it didn't feel like everything got sorted out in terms of all the stuff that had to be resolved or refied or grown out of from an NOI perspective.

我从来没法肯定地告诉你，利率会一路降回去，还是会一直保持在高位。

I could never tell you with certainty that rates were gonna go all the way back down or they're gonna stay as high as they were.

有时候，坐在一个地方，拿一个不错的回报，比冒险去搏一把要好。

Sometimes it's just nice to sit in a spot and take a pretty good return instead of swinging for the fences.

我大概就是这么看的。

That's kind of how I see this.

你提到再融资好几次了。

You've mentioned the refi piece a couple times.

你能跟我们说说，这个领域的贷款通常是怎么运作的吗？

Can you just tell us how the loans typically work in this space?

因为据我所知，这不像你买房那样，拿一个三十年固定利率的按揭。

Because it's not like you're taking out a thirty year fixed rate mortgage like a house, as far as I know.

那它是怎么运作的，这些贷款中有多少需要很快调整到市场利率？

So how does that work and how quickly do some of these loans have to be changed to the market rates?

这是个混合体。

It's a mix.

我说的再融资，是指整个房地产领域的各种情况。

When I say refi's, I mean the entire spectrum of real estate.

比如说……

If you go...

你知道，2021年的时候，有人从机构那边拿了五年期的贷款。

You know, you had people taking five year loans in in 2021 from an agency side.

当然，传统的增值型资产负债表那边也有，通常是浮动利率结构，可以延期一年，最长到五年。

You certainly had it from a a traditional value add balance sheet side, which would be a floating structure with one year extensions out to five years.

所以有好几种不同类型的贷款到期。

So you've got a few different types of loans maturing.

还有一些银行的贷款，可能是从2019、2020、2021年那会儿开始的七年期，那时候的估值比现在高得多。

You also have some bank stuff that could have been seven years from kind of the nineteen, twenty, twenty one range that was done at at much richer valuations than where we stand today.

这些贷款都在滚动续期，而且一直在滚动。

All that stuff is is rolling, and it's been rolling.

但很多都被推迟了，因为在这么混乱的市场里，没人急着去取消赎回权。

But a lot of it's been kicked down the road because no one's in a rush to to foreclose on stuff in a in a messy market like this.

你只是在接手别人的麻烦。

You're just taking on someone else's problem.

但最终，这些事情都得解决。

But eventually, those things have to get resolved.

所以我说，稍微有点认输不是坏事，我觉得把那些东西拿到市场上理清楚，结果也不算太差。

So when I say a little capitulation isn't bad, I think getting some of that stuff out into the market and and sorted out is not a terrible result.

房地产市场不是单一的东西。

The real estate market is not one thing.

当然，它有很多不同的板块和行业。

There are, of course, many different sectors and industries.

那你们觉得哪些方面有吸引力，哪些方面即使估值很低，也不一定适合你们？

So what are some things that you all find attractive and what are some things that, even at depressed valuations, are not necessarily for you?

我们还是几乎完全避开写字楼。

Still staying away from office almost categorically.

这类资产有一些明显的赢家，但很多……

It's an asset class that has some clear winners, but a lot of...

你知道，我不确定它们是不是输家，但确实很难预测。

You know, I don't know if they're losers, but they're sure hard to predict pieces to it.

我上周看到一条关于PIMCO的新闻标题。

I saw a headline last week about PIMCO.

他们的一位房地产...

One of their realist...

其中一位...

One of...

我记得是写字楼物业，但我不太确定。

I think it was an office property, but I'm not a 100% sure.

我没看到那条新闻，但过去几年我见过很多负面的消息，我觉得这个问题没有简单的解决办法。

I didn't see that particular one, but I've seen I've seen plenty of negative ones over the the past couple years, and I I just don't think there's an easy solution.

我的意思是，这和我长期看好的多户住宅板块很不一样。多户住宅虽然估值压力大，但现金流还在。

I mean, it's much different than, you know, a sector which which I've liked for a long time, which is multifamily, where, look, valuations are tough, but cash flows haven't disappeared.

现在回报率确实低了很多，不管是入住率问题还是优惠措施，都有很多不利因素，但至少你不会像写字楼那样损失一半的建筑，被迫作为贷款人采取行动。

Now your returns have gotten much, much lower with, know, whether it's occupancy issues or concessions, there's a number of things that have been headwinds in a way, but you're not losing, say, half the building like you do in office where you're forced to do something as a lender.

你不能就坐在那儿看着它归零，实际上它会变成负收益。

Can't just sit there and watch it go to zero, it actually becomes a negative carry.

想想多户住宅，你确实看到债务收益率或贷款人收益率在某些情况下下降了，但你可以多花点时间。

Think in multi, you've seen your debt yield or the yield to the lender go down certainly in some cases, but you can take a little bit more time.

我还认为，至少相当一部分供应过剩的问题已经被消化了，大家都知道这个领域供应过剩。

I also think you sorted through at least a decent amount of, know, everyone's heard about the oversupply in that space.

我觉得这个问题正在逐步解决。

I think it's being chipped through.

长期来看，这种产品还是有需求的。

There's still a long term need for that product.

对我来说，不确定的是时机问题。

For me, the uncertainty is what's the timing on it?

你知道，在真正看到收入增长之前，这些情况多久能恢复一些？

You know, how quickly does some of that come back before you actually see income growth?

对于某些估值问题，利率环境会是什么样？

What is the rate environment for some of the valuation questions?

但从长期需求和基本面来看，我觉得你在商业地产领域比其他任何地方都更有安全感。

But the long term need and fundamentals there, I think you've got a little more safety than anywhere else in the commercial real estate space.

杰瑞，你所在行业的整体情绪怎么样？

Jerry, what's the overall sentiment in your industry?

因为我们从五年前的历史低利率，过渡到了现在的历史平均水平。

Because we've gone from generationally low rates in five years to, you know, average historically.

但如果从相对角度来看，变化的速度实在太快了，我觉得很多人都措手不及。

But if you just take it on a relative basis, the speed of the change has been so great that I think so many people were caught off guard.

然后就有那么一段时期，大家都在说，等等吧。

And then you had this period where it's like, just wait.

等到2024年。

Wait till 2024.

等到2025年。

Wait till 2025.

现在又说到2026年，情况会好转。

Now wait till 2026, and things will get better.

而且利率……

And rates...

你知道，我们一直……

You know, we've been...

抵押贷款利率从2022年秋天开始就一直在6%以上。

Mortgage rates have been above 6% since, 2022, essentially, the fall.

所以已经持续很长时间了。

So it's been a long time now.

我只是好奇大家普遍的看法是什么，以及业内的人感受如何。

I'm just curious what the general sentiment is and how people are feeling in the space.

我觉得现在希望都快被磨没了。

I think hope is getting pretty stomped on at this point.

我见过同样的情况，也听过各种有趣的说法，比如“撑到25年，活到26年”。

I've seen the same thing and heard all the fun sayings, you know, survive to '25, exist to '26.

有人可能会编个“27年”的说法，然后赢得同样的奖，但事实是，利率低不代表它们会回到低水平。

Someone can coin 20 '7 and and win the same prize, which is that just because rates were low doesn't mean they're gonna go back to being low.

没有规定说利率一定要降回去。

There's not a rule that says that has to happen.

利率高企也不是没有道理的。

You've got higher rates for not terrible reasons.

我们的经济增长非常强劲。

We've had awesome awesome economic growth.

经济一直在稳步发展。

Like, the economy is humming along.

你看不到什么崩盘的迹象。

You you don't see things crashing.

人工智能投资规模巨大。

You have massive AI investment.

整个经济领域到处都有效率提升和生产力的增长。

You have efficiencies and productivity gains all over the the general economic sphere.

这些都是好事。

Those are those are good things.

而且它们会对利率造成压力。

And they're gonna cause pressure on on on rates.

我觉得大家的情绪可能有点失望，因为人们有点习惯了低利率的环境，但绝对没有理由认为那是常态。

I would say the sentiment is maybe a little bit of disappointment because people sort of got addicted to that low rate environment, but there's absolutely no reason to assume that that was the norm.

如果试图经营一个基于可能不再存在的范式的业务，我觉得那会很难。

And if trying to run a business focused on a paradigm that might not exist anymore, I think it's going to be difficult to do that.

从投资组合配置的角度来看，机会是什么样的？

What do the opportunities look like in terms of somebody allocating their portfolio to this?

因为现在，从简单的算术来看，国债确实比过去更有吸引力了。

Because right now, treasuries are looking certainly more attractive than they have been in the past just based on simple arithmetic.

利差看起来怎么样？与回报相关的潜在风险有哪些？

What do spreads look like and what are some of the potential risks associated with the reward?

我觉得比较国债和房地产总是有点像比较苹果和橙子，因为国债不会升值，而且国债也没有租金增长。

I think comparing treasuries and real estate is always a little bit apples and oranges because treasuries don't appreciate in value and you don't get rent growth on treasuries.

而且仅仅因为国债收益率是5%，并不意味着资本化率就应该是5.5%。

And just because treasuries are 5% doesn't mean cap rates should be five and a half percent.

我觉得这不是完全对等的。

Like, I don't think that's a perfect one to one.

我觉得这是对实际情况的过度简化。

I think it's an oversimplification of the reality of the situation.

好的资产，即使你以和国债相同的收益率买入，并且经营得非常好，房地产是有专业性的，十年下来，你会让一些回报复利增长，因为你能做好，而且最终你拥有的硬资产比开始时更值钱。

A good asset, even if you buy it at the same yield as a treasury, and you run it really, really well, there is an expertise in real estate that over a decade, you're gonna compound some of those returns because you can do it right, and you've got a hard asset at the end of the day that's worth more than when it started.

所以我仍然认为房地产有非常扎实的基本面理由，尤其是如果你能，你知道，现在它比之前更好的抗通胀投资，因为租金应该和其他东西一起上涨，在一切条件相同的情况下。

So I still think there's a a very good fundamental argument for real estate, especially if you get, you know, it's a better investment now for inflation than it was before because rents should inflate with everything else, all things being equal.

当然我们也经历了一些例外情况，但从长期趋势来看，我认为最终会回到正确的轨道上。

Now we went through some exceptions to that rule for sure, but on the longer term trend, I think it does end up in the right space.

我在信贷领域的操作方式有点不同。

Where I play in credit is a little bit different than that.

这是另一种思路，关于如何进入市场。

This is sort of a different spin on that, on how to attack the market.

在这里，我的观点不是股权观点，我认为那是七到十年的持有期。

Here, my viewpoint is not an equity viewpoint, which I would say is kind of a seven to ten year hold.

我看的是更短的时间窗口。

I look at a shorter window.

我的投资周期是三到五年。

I'm looking at a three to five year investment horizon.

所以问题是，在债务领域，今天相对于那5%的回报，我能做些什么？

And so the question is, what can I do in the debt world today relative to that 5% return?

在当今市场上，就拿多户住宅来说吧，因为我们在那方面投了很多。

In the markets today, let's just use multi because that's where we've done a lot of invest in.

那就是利用我们发放的抵押贷款，加上杠杆，最终获得那个范围内的总回报。

And that's the ability of taking the mortgage we make, you lever that mortgage, and you get a total return in that range.

这比典型的房地产持有期要短，对吧，但回报率仍然相当高。

It's a shorter duration, right, than than your typical real estate hold, but the the return is still quite high.

这利用了，第一，基准利率刚刚上升，这对我们有利。

And that takes advantage of, one, you've got a base rate that just moved up, which is helpful to us.

第二，资本市场仍然非常有竞争力。

But two, you still have very competitive capital markets.

这意味着你后端使用的债务成本也压缩了。

And that means the cost of debt that you're using on the back end there has compressed as well.

把这两点结合起来，回报非常可观，而且在市场上还有不错的缓冲。

You put those two things together, it's a very interesting return, and you get a nice cushion in the market.

这仍然很难被超越。

That's that's still pretty tough to beat.

长期来看可能有不同的看法，但短期内，我还是非常倾向于信贷策略。

Now the the long term holds a different viewpoint, but short term, I I I think I'm still heavily in favor of the credit approach here.

这个信贷……

That that credit...

这对我来说很有道理，因为你基本上是在扮演贷款人的角色，对吧？

That makes sense to me because you're acting as the lender essentially, right?

而且收益率更高。

And yields are higher.

这提高了你的回报。

That increases your return.

现在做贷款方，竞争有多激烈？

How much competition is there to be the lender today?

因为可能现在没那么活跃了。

Because maybe there's not as much activity.

这对你来说有多难？

Like, hard is that for you?

在那个领域，规模到底有多重要？

Like, how much does scale matter in that space?

我觉得在资产管理行业，规模总体上越来越重要，而且你也能看到整个行业都在整合。

I think scale just generally matters more and more in the asset management business, and and you continue to see consolidation there across the board.

大型且多元化的平台会继续胜出。

And large and more diverse platforms will continue to win out.

我的意思是，我……

I mean, I...

过去几年，你看到小玩家消失了，而大玩家变得更大。

You've seen smaller players disappear over the last few years, and you've seen the the bigger guys get bigger.

你知道那些大型知名资产管理公司。

You know all the same big named asset managers.

它们并没有在缩小。

They're not shrinking.

它们增长得相当快。

They're growing at at pretty good clips.

这方面确实有趋势，但这并不意味着没有竞争。

There's a trend in that regard, but it doesn't mean there's no competition.

竞争总是存在的，而且有些竞争不仅仅来自其他债务基金。

There's always some, and and some of that isn't just other debt funds.

你还会面对银行、保险公司等机构的竞争，但我可以告诉你，这次利率上升会让市场降温。

You still compete against banks and insurers and things like that, but I can tell you this this run up in rates will will pull things back.

这会引发一些恐慌。

This will cause some fear.

说恐慌可能有点夸张，但其他贷款机构会变得极度谨慎。

Panic might be too strong a word, but extreme caution by other lenders.

我觉得保持一致性，守住自己的底线，同时仍然活跃在市场里，这在我看来就是差异化的时候。

I think having consistency and staying within your guardrails, but still being active in the market, this is this is like differentiation time as far as I'm concerned.

那在多户住宅方面，这是怎么运作的？

So on multifamily, how does that work?

你们是借钱给开发商去建楼吗？

Are you making loans to the lenders to build?

如果是的话，收益是来自未来的升值，还是来自租户的现金流？

And if so, is that appreciation down the road or is it cash flows from the tenant?

比如，怎么……

Like, how do...

那具体是什么样的情况？

What does that look like?

我们什么都做。

We do everything.

当然，我们肯定做建筑贷款。

So we do construction lending for sure.

我们也会做我所说的租赁填充。

We'll we'll do what I call lease up.

你付清建筑贷款，来填满一个新资产，或者做增值改造，就是有人买下资产然后改进它。

You pay off construction loan to to fill up a new asset, value add where someone buys an asset to improve it.

有些是已经稳定的。

Some of it's stabilized.

所以我们贷款的商业计划五花八门，现在各种不同类型的资本需求都能看到。

So the business plans that we lend on are all across the board, and you see the needs for all types of different capital today.

我觉得建筑贷款方面会少一些。

I would say less on construction.

你知道，多户住宅的供应量已经很大了。

You know, there's been so much supply delivered in multifamily.

我觉得现在建筑行业相当低迷。

I think construction's fairly depressed right now.

几年后会反弹，我们会进入另一个周期，但现在正处于低谷。

It'll snap back in a few years, and we'll be in another cycle, but we're in the low right now.

我觉得现在最大的需求不是交易性的，而且随着利率飙升，这类需求会大幅减少。

I would say that the biggest need right now is less transactional, and I think that'll massively slow down with the spike in rates.

更多的是那些自然到期的贷款需要处理。

It's more natural maturities that have to be addressed.

我的意思是，在21世纪初，从房地产信贷的角度来看，我们的放贷量创了纪录，这些在未来几年都得面对。

I mean, we had record origination numbers from a real estate credit perspective in the early 20s, and that all has to be reckoned with in the next couple years.

听起来不太妙。

That doesn't sound good.

如果你是股权方，那确实不妙。

It's not good if you're on the equity side.

如果你一直耐心等待，盼着低利率终于回来救你，那这听起来确实挺吓人的。

It sounds done right scary if you were trying to be patient and hope that finally low rates are coming back to save me.

但低利率没回来。

They didn't come back.

这跟我之前说的市场投降有点关系。

This kind of ties in with the capitulation thing I said before.

你要么得重新注资并重组这些项目，引入某种次级合伙人撑住局面，要么接下来一年左右你会看到更多止赎房产涌入市场。

You're either gonna have to re up and recapitalize some of these things, bring in some sort of subordinate partner to sustain it, or you're gonna see more foreclosures hit the market here over the next year or so.

我觉得在20年代初期，就像你提到的，感觉房地产圈很多人都在说，行吧，我们不喜欢写字楼。

I feel like in the 20s, early 20s, as you mentioned, I felt like a lot of people in real estate were like, All right, we don't like office.

有道理。

Makes sense.

但我们真的很喜欢阳光地带的公寓楼。

But we really like multifamily in the Sunbelt.

那个投资逻辑后来怎么样了？

How did that thesis play out?

是不是建得太多了？

Was it overbuilt?

是太多资金追着那个故事跑，还是大体上还算顺利？

Was there too much money chasing that story or did it generally work out okay?

说实话，现在还是有很多资金在追那个故事。

Still a lot of money chasing that story, to be clear.

从那以后，对多户住宅的关注只增不减，传统房地产可能仍被视为市场中最安全的部分。

The focus on multi has only increased since then, and traditional real estate probably still seen as the safest part of the market.

你可以看到情况有点分化。

You can see it bifurcated a little bit.

在最优质的项目上，你看到了价值的良好保持。

In the nicest stuff, you've seen a nice preservation of value.

所以这个问题没有简单的答案，对吧？

So there's not a simple answer on this, right?

并不是所有地方都一概而论地好。

It's not just yes across the board.

你看到的是，在更好更新的资产上，价值下跌的程度不像阳光地带那些30年旧房产那么严重。

What you've seen is on the nicer, newer assets, you didn't see the same depression in value on those that you saw on the stuff that's 30 old in the Sunbelt.

所以不是所有地区、所有资产都一样。

So not all areas, not all assets are created equal.

你看到的是经济低迷期间结果的分化。

What you saw is a bifurcation of results through a downturn.

资金最充裕的投资者，或者机构投资者，都倾向于买最好的资产，这也不奇怪。

The best money or institutional, better capitalized investors trended to the nicest stuff, which isn't shocking.

最好的资产保值能力更强，但另一类资产的结果就更惨一些。

The nicest assets preserved more value, but the other bucket had more severity in terms of outcome.

所以这就是...

And so that...

这就是真正体现出来的情况。

That's what's really showed.

事情没那么简单，不是说所有人都搬去达拉斯了。

It's not just as simple as, oh, everyone moved to Dallas.

达拉斯不错，或者奥斯汀是个发展很快的城市。

Dallas is fine, or Austin's a great growing city.

如果你在那里，那你处境就很好。

If you're if you're there, you're in a good spot.

不是的。

No.

但实际情况并不是这样。

It it didn't play out like that.

赢家和输家之间的差别更加细微，而且我们今天在资产上仍然能看到这一点。

It's much more micro in terms of winners and losers, and we continue to see that on assets today.

很高兴你之前提到利率因为正确的原因在上升。

I'm glad that you mentioned before about how rates are rising for the right reason.

经济增长依然强劲。

Economic growth has remained strong.

是的。

Yes.

通胀更高，但通胀上升的部分原因正是经济增长，而且现在有大量的支出在发生。

Inflation is higher, but part of the reason inflation is higher is because of that growth, and there's a ton of spending going on.

消费者依然表现良好。

Consumers are still doing well.

消费者依然在花钱。

Consumers are still spending money.

所以我就是好奇。

So I'm just curious.

我觉得最近几周、几个月，很多人都在试图预测……

I feel like a a lot of people have, in recent weeks and months, tried to predict like the...

就是住房活动衰退的结束之类的。

This is the the end of, like, the housing activity recession or whatever.

我就想知道，你有没有看到这种情况，就是有些公司和开发商在说，你知道吗？

And I'm just curious if you're seeing that where some companies and some some developers are saying, you know what?

是的。

Yes.

利率高，门槛高，但我们不能一直等下去。

Rates are high, the hurdle rate is high, but we can't wait forever.

而且我们的业务进展得不错，那为什么不继续投入呢？

And things are going pretty well for our business, so why don't we why don't we continue to spend?

有没有这种情况发生，就是人们会说，你知道吗？

Is there is there any of that that's happening that people are go, you know what?

我们只能接受当前的环境，而不是一直等着利率降下来。

We just have to deal with the environment as it is instead of trying to wait forever for these lower rates to happen.

这个回答很理性，但我不确定实际情况是这样。

That's a rational answer, but no, I'm not sure.

我不确定我们看到的就是这种反应。

I'm not sure that's the response we're seeing.

但事情没那么简单，因为如果你在房地产领域搞开发——我开玩笑的，但也不全是——你要展望好几年，然后决定动工，当你的债务成本是8%到10%，甚至更高，取决于项目风险，那就难多了。

It's harder than that, though, because if you're building something in real estate, I'm joking, but only half, you're looking out multiple years and pulling the trigger on construction, it is a lot harder when your your cost of debt is 8% to 10%, maybe higher depending on how risky your project is.

以前大家都能以5%或6%的利率借到建设贷款，所以什么都建，但现在利率翻倍了。

Everyone built everything in the world when you could borrow construction debt at 5% or 6%, but now it doubled.

这肯定会抑制建设活动。

And, you know, that's gonna depress construction.

所以结果就是，供应过剩，没人建，然后又会供应不足，大家又都开始建。

So what's gonna happen is you're gonna be oversupplied, no one's gonna build, and then you'll be undersupplied again, and everyone will build again.

这就是为什么这个行业会这样周期性波动。

That's why it goes so cyclically like this.

在这种环境下，要稍微逆向思维，透过现状看未来，其实挺难的，因为你交付的是你能大致预测的供应，但你不可能完全准确。

It's actually hard to be a little bit contrarian in this environment and look through where you are today out into the future because you're delivering into a supply that you can somewhat guess at, but you can't be perfectly right.

那像工业仓库这类资产呢？

What about things like industrial warehouse?

这也是你涉足的范围吗？

Is that in your bag?

是的。

It is.

我们做了不少工业地产。

We do a decent amount of industrial.

我觉得过去几年它一直是我们第二大资产配置，可能也是我们投资组合中增长最快的部分，主要是因为那里的资本提供方大幅退出了。

I think it's been our second largest asset allocation the last couple years and probably the biggest growth part of our portfolio, mostly because the capital providers there step back quite a bit.

我的意思是，银行好几年都不碰这个领域了，我……

I mean, we we lost the banks there for years, and I...

我觉得这是市场上资本撤出最明显的领域之一，我们有机会作为另类信贷提供方介入，抢占一点市场份额。

I'd say it's one of the more acute spots in the market where we've seen capital pullback and an ability to step in as a, you know, alternative credit provider and take a little bit of market share.

我想这是从2020年疫情那会儿开始的。

I guess it was coming out of the twenty twenty pandemic.

大家都在琢磨这对未来意味着什么，然后所有人都说，哦，这对写字楼是利空。

People are trying to figure out what it means for the future, and everyone said, oh, this is bearish for offices.

人们不太去办公室了。

People aren't going in as much.

还有远程办公。

There's remote work.

就是这些因素。

Those are the things.

你说过你仍然在回避写字楼这个投资板块。

You said you're still kind of avoiding office as an investment segment.

很多人当时也说这是系统性风险，会崩盘。

A lot of people were also saying this is a systemic risk and it's gonna be a crash.

你可以聊聊为什么那次崩盘最终没发生，即使回报可能不怎么样，以及贷款机构有多大的动力去避免这些巨额亏损出现在他们的账面上。

And you can talk about, like, why that crash, I guess, never happened even if the returns maybe weren't so great and and how incentivized the lenders are to sort of not have these huge losses hit their books.

嗯，确实有很大的动力不去那么做。

Well, there's definitely a large incentive not to do that.

如果你看公开市场，人们对那些有效估值的看法有很多怀疑。

There's plenty of skepticism if you look at the public markets in terms of how people look through to those effective valuations.

所以不管你想不想接受那个标记，人们都会假设……

So whether you wanna take the mark or not, people are assume...

假设那个标记是存在的。

Assuming the mark exists on that stuff.

要说它是不是一个被忽视的机会，可能确实是，但我觉得只在非常特定的领域。

In terms of it being, you know, an under the radar opportunity, it probably is, but I would say in very select areas.

你知道，我觉得如果你在旧金山买对了，可能就抓住了AI热潮的上涨，操作得当。

You know, I think if you bought right in San Francisco, you might have caught the upswing on some of the AI trade and played that correctly.

但如果你在达拉斯，比如达拉斯市中心，做同样的投资，现在可能就不太好看了。

But if you made the same bet, I'll go back to Dallas, in Downtown Dallas, that's probably not looking so hot right now.

我觉得现在对办公楼的投资必须更加挑剔，因为人们总是想到市中心的办公楼，对吧？

I think you have to be much more selective on office today because people always think of the downtown office, right?

我现在所在的这栋楼，对吧？

The tower that I sit in right now, right?

它是甲级写字楼，全新的，里面有很多大公司，而且它们长期都需要这样的办公空间，但写字楼的范围远不止这些。

It's class A, it's brand new, it's got giant companies in it, and they all need that for a long time, but office is so much wider ranging than that.

还有郊区写字楼。

There's office, suburban office.

还有小城镇里的办公楼。

There's offices in small towns.

其中很多，比如长期的使用需求，就很难论证了。

A lot of that stuff, like the long term use case is so much harder to argue for.

不只是你脑海中想象的那些闪亮的玻璃塔楼。

It's not just the ones you picture in your head, the shiny glass towers.

远不止这些。

It goes well beyond that.

这类资产其实更加多样化。

That asset class is much more diverse.