Talk Your Book：投资电网的力量

想了解更多关于第一信托纳斯达克清洁能源智能电网基础设施ETF的信息，请访问ftportfolios.com。

Go to ftportfolios.com to learn more about The First Trust Nasdaq Clean Energy Smart Grid Infrastructure ETF.

它的股票代码是GRID。

That's ticker GRID.

这个代码真不错，G-R-I-D。

Great ticker, g r I d.

更多详情请访问ftportfolios.com。

That's ftportfolios.com to learn more.

欢迎收听《动物精神》，一档探讨市场、生活与投资的节目。

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.

迈克尔·巴特尼克和本·卡尔森将和你分享他们最近读过的、写过的以及看过的有趣内容。

Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.

迈克尔和本表达的所有观点均为个人意见，不代表里特尔茨财富管理公司的立场。

All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

本播客仅供信息参考，不应作为任何投资决策的依据。

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.

瑞特茨财富管理的客户可能持有本播客中讨论的证券。

Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

欢迎收听迈克尔和本的《动物精神》。

Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.

迈克尔，最近几周我们一直在聊AI热潮中那些出人意料的赢家和输家。

Michael, you and I have been talking in recent weeks about the somewhat surprising winners and losers from the AI trade.

说实话，谁会想到公用事业板块会是这么一个快速增长、充满创新的领域呢？

I don't know that anyone really assumes that utilities are, like, this fast growing, up and coming, innovative sector.

一开始我压根儿没想到会是这个板块。

This would be one of the ones to me that I would have never figured out when it first started.

整个AI热潮起来的时候，谁会料到电力基建会突然爆发，反而成了限制整个趋势的瓶颈？

The whole AI boom that utilities would go crazy and the build up for the power would be kind of a ceiling on this whole thing.

等等。

Wait.

我还以为你是个卖铲子的人呢。

I thought you were a picks and shovels guy.

这不就是铲子和铁锹吗？

Is this not part of the picks and shovels?

这确实是铲子和铁锹。

That is picks and shovels.

要是我在加拿大广播公司，我就会这么说。

If I was on CBC, that's what I would say.

没错。

Yes.

确实如此。

True.

这才是你该持有的资产。

That's what you wanna own.

铲子和铁锹，说的就是这个。

The picks and shovels, and this is it.

有意思的是，几年前不是有部罗伯特·德尼罗的电影吗？他演的是个架电线的工人，对吧？

And it is interesting because if you just there was a Robert De Niro movie, I don't know, seven years ago or something, and he was a guy who built the power lines, right?

如果你去

If you go

等一下。

on Wait.

等等。

Any Wait.

哇哦。

Woah.

哇哦。

Woah.

这部电影叫什么名字？

What was this movie?

我想不起来了。

I can't remember.

鲍比·D修过电线？

Bobby D built power lines?

我的意思是，他拍过不少冲着片酬去的片子。

I mean, he's done a lot of paycheck movies.

就是一般般吧。

It was it was just okay.

但如果你随便去全国哪个街区，看到满大街都是电线，你难免会想，这些电线到底有多老了？

But if you if you go in any neighborhood anywhere in the country and you see power lines everywhere, you kinda think to yourself, how old are these?

对吧？

Right?

看着就像从古至今都没换过一样。

They look like they've been here forever.

为啥不把它们埋到地下呢？

Why aren't they underground or something?

听上去，整个AI基础设施的建设，让很多人意识到咱们得升级这个电网了。

And it sounds like the whole AI build out has made many people realize that we need to update this grid.

你明白我意思了吧？

See what I did there?

所以，本，我问了Claude你在说哪部电影，它说你想到的可能是《生命线》。

So, Ben, I asked Claude what movie you're talking about, and Claude said, I think the movie you're picturing is Life on the Line.

对，就是这部。

That's it.

你想想。

Think.

主演可能是山姆·洛克威尔。

Sam Rockwell may be in it.

但主角是约翰·特拉沃尔塔，不是德尼罗。

But the star is John Travolta, not De Niro.

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

告诉克劳德，他搞错了。

Tell Claude they're wrong.

我查了德尼罗的电影列表，里面没有关于高压线的电影。

Searched De Niro's filmography, and there's no power line movie in it.

所以几乎可以肯定是特拉沃尔塔。

So it's almost certainly Travolta

《一切都好》。

Everybody's Fine.

2009年的电影。

2009 movie.

明白了。

Okay.

你知道吗？

You know what?

哦，是吗？

Oh, yeah?

那《全家都挺好》这部呢？

What about Everybody's Fine?

你记得吗

Do you

萨姆·洛克威尔、凯特·贝金赛尔和罗伯特·德尼罗？

remember Sam Rockwell, Kate Beckinsale, and Robert De Niro?

我从来没听说过这部电影。

I never heard of it.

咱们看看Claude怎么说。

Let's see what Claude has to say for itself.

好，行。

Alright.

对了，你刚才说什么来着？

Anyway, what were you saying?

总之，今天节目中我们采访了瑞安·伊萨凯恩。

Anyway, on today's show, we talked to Ryan Issakainen.

瑞安是第一信托的高级副总裁兼ETF策略师，他们有一只ETF，原本并不是为了蹭AI热潮才推出的。

Ryan is a senior vice president ETF strategist at First Trust, and they have a ETF that that is trying to take advantage of I guess not trying to take advantage.

这只基金早在AI热潮兴起之前就存在了，初衷是为了布局电力基础设施，因为他们早就预见到电力系统需要大规模升级。你手上有一些相关数据吧？

It was there well before the AI boom happened to build out the power grid because they they thought there was necessary to see a big boom in the power grid a big upgrade in the power grid, and you've got some numbers on this.

这只基金因为AI而快速增长，但那根本不是它设立的初衷，因为这只基金已经存在很久了。

This fund is growing or has grown like crazy because of AI, but that was never the point because the fund has been around for a very long time.

那它现在规模有多大？

So what did it grow to?

差不多一千二百亿美元了吧？

At a $12,000,000,000 fund now?

差不多就是这个数。

Just about.

而且里面很多公司你都没听说过，有些你可能知道，但这个思路特别有意思。

Anyway, and it's a lot of companies you've never heard of, some you have, but it's a very interesting thought experiment.

你提到台积电就像晶体管或者调速器一样，是制约AI发展的关键环节。

You talk about what Taiwan Semiconductor being the transistor or the governor does hold back AI.

也许这还跟全国范围内的电力升级、建设数据中心有关。

Maybe it also is the electrification of the country for building out the data centers.

总之，今天跟瑞安聊得非常有意思，他来自第一信托。

Anyway, fascinating conversation today with Ryan, from First Trust.

接下来是我们和第一信托的瑞安·伊萨凯恩的对话。

So here is our talk with Ryan Issakainen from First Trust.

瑞安，欢迎来到节目。

Ryan, welcome to the show.

嗨。

Hey.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me, guys.

好的。

Alright.

今天我们聊的是第一信托纳斯达克清洁能源智能电网基础设施基金。

So we're talking today about the First Trust Nasdaq Clean Energy Smart Grid Infrastructure Fund.

这只基金的代码是GRID。

The ticker is GRID.

这代码真不错。

Great ticker.

这只基金已经存在很久了。

This thing has been around for so alright.

我像往常一样查了走势图，点进基金页面看了看情况。

I looked on I went on the white charts as I do, and I go to the fund and I see what's going on.

天啊。

Woah.

一千二百亿美元。

$12,000,000,000.

我的天。

Holy cow.

这可不是什么新基金。

This is not a new fund.

这东西已经存在很久了。

It's been around for a while.

它的目标从来没变过。

The objective has not changed.

为了让市场兴奋起来，说法上做了一些调整。

The narrative has changed a little bit in terms of getting the market excited.

我说兴奋，是因为现在基金里已经有120亿美元了。

And I say excited because there's $12,000,000,000 in the fund.

而到了2023年，才只有10亿美元。

And in 2023, there was a billion dollars.

所以最近这几年，大概是2025年以后，基金规模涨了六倍。

So a lot of the interest has come over the last, let's say, since 2025, the AUM has, sextupled.

涨了六倍。

Six tupled.

涨了六倍。

It's up six x.

我不确定我刚才说得对不对。

I don't know if I said that properly.

不过，不管怎样，Grid 这事儿到底怎么回事？

But, anyway, what's the story with Grid?

为什么投资者对它这么感兴趣？

Why why all of the interest from investors?

我知道这问题挺简单的，但还是说说吧。

I know this is a softball question, but here we go.

第一个问题。

First one.

我觉得这跟人工智能的发展密切相关，最近很多投资者都在关注这个方向。

Well, I think it's one of those adjacent themes alongside the build out of AI, and that's what a lot of investors have focused on recently.

我们想想看，制约人工智能快速落地的瓶颈在哪里？其实就是电力需求。你得把新增的用电需求和发电来源连起来，这就离不开电网。

It's really when we think about where the bottlenecks are and, you know, what what could cause AI to not be deployed as quickly as many people might want it to be, it's the the demand for power, and of course, you have to connect new sources of demand with sources of generation, and that requires the power grid.

所以我们的基金核心就是升级和扩展电网。

And so our fund is all about modernizing and expanding power grids.

正如你提到的，这个话题从2009年就存在了，所以我们早就知道电力网络需要升级。

And as you mentioned, it's been around since 2009, so it's not a new story that we've needed to modernize the power grid.

不过，推动升级的一些原因已经发生了变化。

Some of the drivers, some of the reasons for that have shifted.

我们2009年刚成立基金时，大家讨论电力网络升级，主要聚焦在风电、光伏等新能源并网的问题上。

When we first launched the fund back in 2009, the narrative surrounding why you needed to modernize the power grid had a lot more to do with new sources of power generation coming online, whether it was wind or solar.

当时的电网基础设施根本跟不上需求。

The existing power grid infrastructure just didn't work well.

它是一百年前设计的，只为集中式发电服务，电力都是从燃煤电厂单向输送出去的。

It was designed, you know, hundred years ago for centralized power generation and everything flew flowed downstream from coal fired plants.

现在呢，我们接入的是间歇性电源，太阳下山就没电，风停了也没电。

Now you're introducing intermittent source of power generation that came and went as the sun, you know, set in the evening or the wind stopped blowing.

所以当时必须重新设计一套电网系统来应对这种情况，当然，这个问题至今仍然存在。

And so you had to figure out how to introduce a new power grid essentially for that, and of course, that's still related.

风电和光伏还在持续增加，但如今AI带来的新增用电需求，才是推动电网大规模扩建和升级的最关键因素。

There's still a lot of wind and solar that comes online, but this new source of demand coming from AI has really been a huge driver in the need to really expand and modernize that grid.

所以方法没变，目标也没变，但近几年推动这件事的力量明显加快了。

And so the methodology hasn't changed, the objective hasn't changed, but the driver has really accelerated over the last few years.

你们是什么时候意识到，哦，我们的基金其实是在押注人工智能的？

What at what point did you realize like, oh, this our fund is an AI play?

对你来说，那个关键的时刻是什么时候？

Like, what was that moment for you?

那时候你就觉得，这确实是个全新的东西了。

Like, okay, this is this is something new now.

三年前，我的团队发表过一篇文章，当时我们已经意识到，人工智能会带来巨大的电力需求，从而大幅提升电价的定价能力。

Three years ago, my team published a piece where, you know, we had kind of recognized that was something that was going to create a huge amount of demand and therefore pricing power when you think about how quickly demand has come on for for more electricity.

当然，我们当时根本没想到2022年就会出现人工智能。

You know, when we obviously didn't know that you're gonna have AI in 2022.

2022年11月，你正和家人围坐在感恩节餐桌旁，还在琢磨ChatGPT到底是个啥。

You know, November 2022, you're sitting around the Thanksgiving table with your family and trying to figure out what chat GPT was.

我们真的完全没预料到。

You know, we had no idea.

电网运营商根本没想到会这样。

The grid operators had no idea.

他们还以为电力需求会像过去几十年那样，每年只增长不到1%。

They thought that we'd have, you know, just that that under a 1% increase in power demand year over year that we'd had over the last couple decades.

直到2023到2024年，这些预测不断上调，我们才意识到，如果这种趋势持续下去，电力需求会暴涨，而且之后还越演越烈。

It was really, you know, 2324 as those estimates started to get ratcheted higher that we recognize that, you know, this is something where you're going to have massive amounts of demand if this continues, and it's only accelerated since then.

其实过去两三年，我们才慢慢明白，这其实是AI基础设施建设的一个关键配套领域。

It's really been over the last, know, I'd say two or three years that we've recognized that this was one of those adjacent plays to the build out of AI.

本和我一直在讨论整个供应链各环节的瓶颈问题，这些瓶颈自然会限制这些东西的生产速度，理论上应该能防止情况彻底失控。

Ben and I have been talking a lot about the bottlenecks at every every stop of the supply chain, which is a natural governor on how fast these things can be produced, which I guess theoretically should should hopefully, like, keep some of these things from going completely out of control.

换句话说，如果供应能跟上需求，那可能还好说。

In other words, if demand was able to meet if supply was able to meet demand, then maybe you would say, alright.

但要是供应追上了，出现过剩，价格就会崩盘。

Then now there's an oversupply and everything comes crashing down.

所以我觉得，这种限制反而是件好事。

So I think this is like a natural governor in a good way.

我们经常这么讲，比如台积电。

And and the way that we've been framing that a lot is like, alright, Taiwan Semi.

他们每分钟、每小时、每天能生产的芯片数量是有限的。

They can only generate so many chips per minute, per hour, per day.

我们之前没怎么讨论过这背后的电力问题。

We haven't spent a lot of time talking about the the power aspect of this.

我对这些事情其实不太懂。

I'm so ignorant to how all of this works.

对普通人来说，给这些数据中心供电的产能瓶颈到底体现在哪儿？

For a layman, what do some of the capacity constraints to powering these data centers literally look like?

我觉得这跟其他类型的瓶颈不太一样，电力网络的建设有个现实问题——输电线路得穿过人家的院子。

I think unlike some of what you might think of with other forms of bottlenecks, one of the differences when it comes to the power grid and the build out of the power grid has to do with the reality that this is all, you know, you build power lines, it goes through somebody's yard.

它还得经过别人的商铺。

It goes through somebody's business.

这里面涉及的监管要求非常多，而且怎么都绕不开。

There's a lot of regulation that is required that is just unavoidable.

所以这就是为什么你会听到这些大型科技公司开始自建电网、采用其他发电方式的原因。

And so that's part of the reason why you start to hear these large technology companies introducing behind the meter and and some of these other forms of power generation.

但我认为，除了美国，欧洲、亚洲，还有发展中国家，都还需要大幅扩建电网的物理长度。

But but I think there's still a massive amount of of actual length to the power grid that you're gonna have to add to not just The US, but also Europe, also Asia, also the developing world.

这需要建设规模庞大的基础设施。

And, you know, it's a massive, massive amount of infrastructure that has to be built.

这是一项工业级的工程。

And this is this is an industrial project.

不是简单地建一座工厂那么简单。

This isn't something where you're just building one factory.

而是要全面扩大整个电力系统。

This is something where you've got to scale out the entire system.

这些工程都需要很长很长时间才能完成。

And these are things that take a long, long time to actually take place.

所以你得先拿到许可，完成所有环境评估，架设输电线路，安装铁塔，还要考虑变压器、电气设备、电表——所有电网前后端的组件。

So and so you have to get the permitting, you have to figure out all the environmental studies, you have to put the lines in place, you have to put the towers in place, you've got to worry about you know, the transformers and the electrical components, the meters, everything in in in front of and behind the meter.

这背后需要建立庞大的供应链。

There's a lot of supply chain that has to be built out.

这些供应链牵涉到巨额资本支出。

There's a lot of CapEx associated with those supply chains.

我们跟一些早就听过这个故事的投资者交流时，发现现在这个话题逐渐成了主流叙事，大家开始好奇：现在到底进行到哪一步了？

And so, you know, one of the interesting things, guys, that we, as we're talking to investors that that have heard the story before and now it's starting to become part of the narrative, people wonder where are we in the the build out of this?

我们处于哪个阶段了？

What's what inning are we in?

这可是他们常用的说法。

You know, that's the the parlance.

对吧？

Right?

他们也在问，既然现在听得这么多，这事儿是不是马上就要爆发了？还是说，其实才刚刚起步？

And and they wonder is this because I've heard it so much now, is this something that is just about ready to, you know, turn over or or are we in the early innings?

我们坚定地认为，现在才刚刚起步，因为这个工程太庞大了，要经历无数个阶段，自然会有一些瓶颈短期内难以解决。就像你提到的，迈克尔，我觉得这反而是好事——相当于给油门装了个限速器，不至于一下子把所有燃料全泼出去。

And and we would argue wholeheartedly that we're in the early innings of this build out because it is such a long project, and it is something that requires so many stages to actually take place, and so along with that, there's unavoidable bottlenecks that are gonna be around for a while, And, you know, to your point, Michael, I think that is good in terms of, you know, kind of as a governor to prevent all the the throttle to be down and and releasing all the the gasoline in the engine.

这会让进程变慢，整个建设需要好几年才能逐步完成。

Does kind of slow things down and causes a process to unfold over the next several years.

瑞安，谁来负责这项建设？

Ryan, who is responsible for the build out?

是政府和市政部门吗？

Is it governments and municipalities?

是那些建设数据中心的技术公司吗？

Is it these tech providers that are building the data centers?

到底是谁最终承担起这项建设的责任？

Like, who ultimately is on the hook for building this build out?

是的。

Yeah.

是多方共同参与的。

It's mixture.

这是大型科技公司、电力公司、独立电力供应商以及垂直整合的公用事业公司和政府之间协同合作的结果，这些科技公司正投入数百亿美元的资金。

It's a coordinated effort between the large technology companies that are making these hundreds of billions of dollars of investment along with the power companies, the merchant power companies and the integrated or or vertically integrated utilities, along with governments.

政府必须亲自批准相关法规，才能让这些项目得以推进。

Governments have to be the ones that actually approve the regulation and, you know, allow for these things to to take place.

如果系统中的任何一个环节没做好，或者进展缓慢，整个进程就会拖慢。

And so if any one of those parts of the system doesn't do its job or doesn't, you know, move along, it's it's going to slow things down.

电力公司必须在系统中增加基础设施，才能把新的发电来源和新的用电需求连接起来。

So you have to have the utilities adding infrastructure to the system to be able to connect new sources of generation with new sources of demand.

超大规模云服务商得同意承担部分新增成本，否则消费者会因为电费暴涨而闹起来。

You have to have the hyperscalers agreeing to fund their part of what the added cost might be, or you're gonna have, you know, customers are gonna lose their minds over increased utility costs.

我们现在是不是已经看到这种情况了？普通家庭的电费是不是因为这个在上涨？

Are we already seeing that now where people are homeowners, households are paying more for their electricity because of this?

是的，数据中心确实因为这个原因有点形象问题。

Yeah, think data centers do have a bit of a PR problem because of that.

我觉得公众的认知和实际情况往往对不上，这其实挺常见的。

I think the narrative probably doesn't line up with the reality, and that's often the case.

电力基础设施早就该投资升级了，所以无论怎样，电网改造和扩建的成本最终都会转嫁到消费者头上。

When you think about utilities in our infrastructure has needed investment for a long, long time, and so the cost of that investment to upgrade and expand power grids is already going to increase cost for consumers.

这事儿没得商量。

There's just no two ways about it.

我的意思是，就算没有数据中心的扩建，没有制造业回流，或者其他这些推高电力需求的趋势，电费也还是会涨，因为那些老化的线路、变压器，早就该更新了，尤其是当你想接入风电、光伏这些新能源的时候。

I mean, even in the absence of any of the data center build out or any of the reshoring of manufacturing and things like, you know, all these other trends that are adding to electricity demand, you're gonna have increased costs because these are holes and wires and transformers and things that have been in existence for a long time that need to be modernized, especially if you're gonna integrate new sources of demand or of a supply rather, like wind and solar.

所以问题来了：你愿不愿意让这些大型云服务商参与进来，分担一部分建设成本？

And so then the question is, do you want these large hyperscalers to come in and contribute to that build out?

因为尽管总成本可能会上升，但他们参与进来反而能让涨幅小一些——毕竟他们在帮着支付电网升级的费用。

Because they may actually, even though costs could go up, they could cause costs to go up less because they're actually helping to pay for the modernization of power grids.

而且，这些电力公司的日常运营成本，很大一部分其实是固定成本。

And even the ongoing operation of those utilities, you know, a lot of, a big portion of that is actually fixed cost.

这些公司作为受监管的垄断企业，都有一个允许的回报率。

And these utilities have an allowed rate of return, the regulated monopolies in many cases.

如果你能把这些固定成本分摊到更多的用电量上，每度电的成本反而可能下降，这听起来反直觉，但确实意味着数据中心的存在，反而可能让普通消费者的电费更低。

And so if you're able to spread that fixed cost out among more kilowatt hours that are consumed, you could actually lower the cost per kilowatt hour, which counter intuitively means that data centers could actually be better for consumers than they would be in the absence of those data centers.

不过，本，你说得对，数据中心，还有人工智能整体，确实得更好地讲清楚这些好处。

But to your point, Ben, I think data centers have really, and AI in general has to do a better job in communicating what those benefits are.

Ryan，你怎么对这些这么了解？

Ryan, how do you know so much about this stuff?

你平时是做什么工作的？

What's your day job?

你这话可真是夸到我心坎里了。

My day job is that's a very good compliment.

我在第一信托担任ETF策略师，我和团队花很多时间研究那些还没被主流指数充分反映、但未来可能驱动市场表现的趋势。

I am the ETF strategist at First Trust, and so we spend a lot of time with my team kind of investigating what the themes are, the trends that are gonna drive market performance that are not already well represented in broad indexes.

比如你看标普500，里面确实有不少半导体公司，如果你想加仓半导体，这没问题，但像电力网络这种热门主题，在指数里其实几乎找不到多少相关公司。

So, you know, we we look at what is in the S and P 500, there's a lot of semiconductors embedded in the index and you wanna overweight semiconductors, that's great, but there's really not a lot of exposure to many of the themes that have been more popular in the broad indexes like the power grid, for example.

你要是只买标普500，根本接触不到多少电力网络领域的公司。

You know, you're not getting a lot of power grid companies if you just buy the S and P 500.

所以我们关心的是，未来到底有哪些故事和驱动力在背后推动这些变化。

And so we wanna know what the stories are, what the drivers might be going forward.

我加入第一信托已经二十多年了，有幸和一群非常聪明的人共事，从他们身上学到了很多。

So I've I've been with First Trust for twenty six plus years now, and I've had the pleasure working with some really smart people, and I just learned from them.

这只ETF确实跟标普500完全不一样。

This ETF, you're right, looks nothing like the S and P 500.

前十大持仓公司，大多数普通听众或投资者根本没听说过。

There is the top 10 holdings are companies that most casual listeners or investors have never heard of.

截至2026年3月31日，该基金32%的资金投在电气元件领域。

32% of the fund as of 03/31/2026 is in electrical components.

12%投在多元公用事业公司。

12% is in multi utilities.

另外12%投在多元化工业领域。

Another 12% is in diversified industrials.

这不是美光、西部数据、闪迪、AMD那些公司。

This is not Micron, Western, Ditch, SanDisk, AMD, etcetera.

完全不是那一类。

Like, this is not that.

我有个比较宽泛的问题。

I have a broad question.

当我们讨论现在处于哪个阶段、现在是什么时候，其实很难说清楚，因为从AI基础设施和相关应用的实际建设与使用情况来看，我们所处的周期阶段可能和表面看起来差别很大。

When we say what inning is it or what time is it or however you wanna discuss where we are in the cycle, it's really tricky because there can be a big difference between where we are in the cycle from, like, the actual build out and use case of this AI infrastructure power, etcetera.

在这一点上，我们可能才刚刚起步，真正的发展还可能再持续三年、甚至十五年。

We could be very early there where this could legitimately have another three years, another fifteen years.

我们才刚刚开始而已。

Like like, we're we're just beginning.

但股市部分的情况可能完全不同，节奏也不一样。

But then there's a stock piece of it, and those might be on different schedules.

这边可能是凌晨三点，那边却已经快十二点了。

It might be 03:00 here, but 11:30 there.

这种事在互联网泡沫时期就发生过。

And that happened in the .com bubble.

对吧？

And right?

那时候互联网确实是个大趋势，但泡沫破裂的时候，它连真正的发展都还没开始呢。

Like, the the the Internet was a thing, and it it barely had even started when the bubble burst.

我并不是说这会重蹈覆辙，但这件事确实很值得深思。

I'm not suggesting that this is going to follow suit, but, like, it's a really interesting thing to think about.

所以我看Grid这家公司，过去三年股价涨了一倍。

So when I look at Grid, this thing is up a 100% over the last three years.

我猜有人看到这个会想，唉，我错过了。

And I think somebody might look at this and say, oh, I missed it.

我觉得这大概就是普通投资者的思维方式。

And I think that is probably the way that the average investor thinks.

而普通投资者在看待这类事情时，通常都搞错了。

And I think the average investor is usually wrong when they think about these things.

当然，有些东西三年内涨了三倍，你一买进就崩盘，这种事太常见了。

Now, yes, of course, something's triple in over three year period, and you buy the top and they crash.

这种事天天都在发生。

Like, of course, it happens all the time.

但对这种东西，我觉得大家普遍的看法是：这是一场泡沫。

But for something like this, I think I think the general attitude towards this whole thing is it's a bubble.

说实话，我不太能理解这种看法。

And I mean, I don't I don't I understand that point of view.

我也不一定认同这种观点。

I don't necessarily know that I share that that opinion.

你对刚才我说的这些怎么看？

What's your take on everything that I just said?

我知道我刚才说得有点乱。

I know it was a a bit of a ramble.

是的。

Yeah.

不是的。

No.

当你看到一样东西涨得很高时，确实容易觉得不如等它回调再入手。

I I think there is definitely the perception when you've seen something run up that it's easier to think I'm gonna wait for it to come back down.

我希望能等到一次下跌，我相信在未来十年里肯定会有几次下跌，到时候投资者可能会想，现在终于可以低价进场了。

I wanna wait for a sell off to happen, and I'm sure there will be sell offs between now and the next ten years that investors may say, oh, and now is the time that I can get in at a cheaper price.

另一方面，他们可能会说，你看，价格一直在跌，就像互联网泡沫破裂时那样，还会继续往下掉。

On the other hand, they may say, well, you know, it's it's going down, and it's it's gonna drop like the .com bubble did when that burst.

这东西迟早会跌回来，那我干嘛要在它越来越便宜的时候还去买呢？

This is gonna come back down, so why would I wanna own, why would wanna buy these assets as they got cheaper?

这就是投资的心理机制，也是为什么大多数人投资都失败了，尤其是在这类主题上。

And that's the whole psychology of investing, and that's why most people are unsuccessful at investing, especially in these sorts of themes.

我们看待这个问题的方式是，我们不会试图精准地择时。

The way that we look at it is we're not gonna time it perfectly.

这一点我们很清楚。

We know that.

当我们讨论像电力网络这样的主题时，几乎从不试图做短期判断，比如我们会持有一个月或三个月。

These when we talk about themes like the power grid, we very rarely try to make short term calls where we say, you know, we're gonna own this for the next month or the next three months.

我们看的是未来十年，电力网络将迎来巨额的投资浪潮。

We look at this as being over the next decade, you're gonna see massive, massive amounts of capital investment in the power grid.

这其实并不仅仅依赖于数据中心，虽然现在大家的焦点都在这儿。

And it really is not just dependent on data centers, that's what's driving the narrative now.

但与此同时，我的家乡纽约州锡拉丘兹，正在兴建美光的芯片工厂。

But at the same time, my hometown of Syracuse, New York, we're building the Micron chip fabs there.

未来二十年内，他们计划建四座芯片工厂，总投资高达一千亿美元，而这些工厂必须有配套的电力基础设施支持。

They're gonna build four chip fabs over the next twenty years, and they're gonna spend a $100,000,000,000 doing so, and you've got to supply power infrastructure to those chip fabs.

很多制造业正在回流。

There's a lot of manufacturing that's coming back online.

这推动了对电力网络的需求。

That's driving demand for power grids.

现有的电力网络已经老化不堪了。

There's just failing power grids.

每次风暴一过，大家都会经历停电，就是因为电网太旧，抗灾能力差，急需投入升级。

You know, every time there's a storm that passes through, people are familiar with losing power, and that's because their power grids are old, they're not hardened, they need to be invested in.

所以我们看人工智能这个主题时，特别欣赏的一点是，它并不完全依赖于数据中心。

And so one of the things that we like about this way to think about AI theme is that it's not fully contingent on data centers.

没错，数据中心会带来收益，但就算数据中心建设放缓，或者我们觉得已经建得够多了，依然存在大量未满足的需求。

Yes, it's gonna benefit from data centers, but if data centers, you know, slow down, if we decide, you know, we've built enough, you still have a backlog of demand.

电力网络的需求还积压了几年的量。

There's still a a few year backlog of demand for for power grid.

我喜欢那种能把两样东西拿来对比的图示。

And, you know, I love I love illustrations where you can kind of compare two things.

我来给你做个对比吧。

So here's my my comparison for you.

根据彭博社的数据，未来二十五年，电力网络将新增大约一千七百万英里的输电和配电线路。

The power grid over the next twenty five years according to Bloomberg is gonna add something like 17,000,000 miles of transmission and distribution lines.

这个长度足以往返月球三十七次。

And the comparison is that's enough length to go back and forth to the moon 37 times.

哦，迈克尔喜欢这种面包卷。

Oh, Michael likes these buns.

这将为电力网络增加六千万英里的线路，差不多是从地球到火星最近距离的长度。

This is gonna make 60,000,000 miles of of length to the power grid, and that's basically here to Mars when they're at the closest point.

哦，瑞安，抱歉打断你一下。

Oh, Ryan, to your point, sorry to cut you off.

是的，2019年和2020年，这个基金涨了超过40%。

Yeah, yeah, In 2019 and 2020, this fund was up more than 40%.

2021年又涨了将近30%，那时候ChatGPT都还没出现，表现已经非常出色了。

It was up almost 30% in 2021, so that's before ChatGPT was even a thing, and you had really great performance.

所以我很好奇，如果你看这个基金的前十大重仓股，有些名字你可能在前二十五名里见过，但前十名里，那些公司虽然有名，却算不上大众熟知的品牌。

So I'm curious because if you look at just the top 10 holdings in this fund, there are some names that you recognize in the top 25 holdings, but the top 10, maybe some companies that people are aware of, but certainly not household names.

你能给我们讲讲你们是怎么选这些股票的吗？因为从表面上看，前五六家公司加起来，差不多占了整个基金40%的比重？

So maybe you could just go through us with the process of of how you go about picking the fund because it looks like, I don't know, just eyeballing it, the top five or six companies at least make up, I don't know, 40% of the total or so?

对。

Yeah.

这是一个按市值加权的基金，我们和指数提供商纳斯达克紧密合作，他们则委托一家叫Clean Edge的公司做顾问。自打我们2009年推出这只基金以来，Clean Edge就一直在为这个指数提供支持，他们甚至在基金推出前就设计了这个指数。

It is a market cap weighted fund, and really we work alongside our index provider, which is Nasdaq, what they consult with a firm called Clean Edge, and all they focus on at Clean Edge, and they've working as a consultant to the index since we launched our fund back in 2009, they created the index slightly before that.

他们的核心任务，是找出那些收入中很大一部分来自我们所说的电力基础设施相关业务的公司。

But what they're focused on is identifying companies that generate a substantial amount of their revenue from what we'll call power grid related activities.

这些公司主要涉及我们之前提到的那些东西——电气设备、输电线路、相关材料、电缆等等。

And so these are, you know, the the the things that we've been talking about, the the electrical components, the the transmission lines, you know, those materials, the cabling.

比如Prismean这家公司，做电网工程的。

So, you know, companies like Prismean, the the grid engineering.

Quanta就是个典型的例子。

So Quanta would be an example.

像伊顿、施耐德电气、ABB、江森自控这些公司，都是做电气设备的，但你肯定不会把它们和那些酷炫的半导体公司混为一谈。

You know, the the all that electrical equipment companies like Eaton and Schneider Electric and ABB and Johnson Controls and all these names that are very you know, you don't think of these as sort of the sexy semiconductor names.

不过指数提供商是根据收入来筛选的，大约80%是纯粹的电网相关企业，按市值加权；剩下20%是那些只是部分涉及电网业务、但收入并非主要来源的公司。

But but the index provider is screening for revenue, and essentially, it's 80% goes into pure plays, market cap weighted, 20% goes into sort of businesses that have some involvement in the power grid, but they're not driving the revenue.

也就是说，这些公司的主要收入并不来自电网相关业务。

So for example, they're not the main driver of the revenue.

比如英伟达在基金里的仓位被限制在2%，这是因为英伟达拥有非常关键的电网相关软件。

So, you know, NVIDIA has had a small position in the fund capped at 2%, and that's because NVIDIA has very important grid related software.

如果你想高效管理电力的流动，英伟达在这方面的解决方案确实非常出色。

They if you wanna manage efficiently your your flow of of electricity, NVIDIA's got amazing solutions for that.

所以我们基金确实也持有一些像英伟达这样的公司。

And so we do have some exposure to companies like NVIDIA.

那为什么对英伟达设了上限呢？

So why is why is NVIDIA have a cap on it?

因为他们在电网相关业务上不算纯粹的公司。

Just because they're not a pure play in terms of the grid related component.

明白了。

Okay.

所以指数里有明确的规则，得满足某些条件才能被纳入。

So there's there's like there's guidelines or or things you have to check-in a box to be a certain way in the in the index.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

英伟达在电力调度软件上的收入，跟他们GPU的收入完全没法比。

The revenue coming from NVIDIA's, you know, power flow management software is not anywhere near what they're generating from their GPUs.

所以我们确实设了上限，把一些参与电网但不是核心业务的公司也包括进来，只是它们对整体营收的贡献没那么大。

And so, yeah, we we we do have a cap to incorporate some of those important companies that are involved in the power grid, but they're not they're not the most important driver to the business.

这些公司的盈利情况怎么样？

What do the earnings of these companies look like?

我们之前聊了很多关于存储和内存公司的事，比如美光、SK海力士这些，一年半前每股收益才9美元，现在涨到了135美元。

So we've been talking a lot about the storage and the memory companies, Micron and SK and the others, where the earnings were $9 a share a year and a half ago, now they're $135 a share.

增长势头这么猛，这里的公司也一样吗？

Like explosive growth, does it look similar here?

另外想问一下，它们的估值现在是什么水平？

And then as a follow-up, what do the valuations look like?

是的。

Yeah.

它们的增长幅度可没美光那么夸张。

The growth level is not what you're seeing in, you know, Micron.

过去几个季度，美光和其他一些芯片公司的定价能力与收入表现，简直令人惊叹。

The pricing power and the revenue that Micron and some the other chip companies have had over the last several quarters has been nothing short of remarkable.

正如你所说，增长非常迅猛，主要原因还是它们的产能严重受限。

It's been explosive to your point, and a lot of that is because they're so supply constrained in terms of what they're putting out there.

他们想定价多少就定价多少。

They can charge whatever they want to.

至于我们投资组合里一些公司的增长，整体来看，盈利增速大概在20%左右。

When it comes to the growth that we've seen for some of the companies in our portfolio, it's more like 20% earnings growth on sort of the as a portfolio.

所以，好消息是，虽然没那么爆发式增长，但相当稳定。

And so, you know, the good news is it's it's not explosive, but it is fairly consistent.

展望未来，你在芯片公司看到的供应限制，其实也适用于我们投资组合里的不少企业。

And as we look forward, you know, I I think the supply constraints that you have for some of the chip names, it's really no different for, you know, some of the companies that are in our portfolio.

短期内你可能还是没法满足全部需求，但正因如此，增长反而更平稳了。

You're not gonna have the ability to meet that supply for maybe a little bit longer time, but as a result, it is a bit more steady.

所以，你不会看到像芯片公司那样的高增长，但也不用为它们支付那么高的估值。

So not the level of growth that you're seeing with the chip names, you're also not paying the valuations you would with some of those names.

整个投资组合目前的远期市盈率大约是24倍。

You're trading as a portfolio at about 24 times forward earnings.

从过去十年来看，这个估值处在高位区间，但我觉得这反映了现实——市场看到了这些公司未来持续稳健的盈利增长潜力，所以才给了稍高的倍数。

That is when you look at the overall portfolio towards the upper end of the range over the last decade, but I think that reflects just the realities of the situation where you're seeing the potential, you know, this relatively robust earnings growth potential for upside going forward, think is reflected in that slightly elevated multiple.

我觉得ETF特别棒的一点，尤其是这十年来，就是主题投资越来越多，只要你相信某个方向，就能直接投资进去。

So I think one of the cool things about ETFs in general, especially this decade, is just the growth in thematics and the ability to invest in a sector like this if you have a belief.

如果有人问，那我为什么不直接买公用事业ETF呢？

What would you say to someone who says, well, why wouldn't I just buy the utilities ETF?

我就买个公用事业板块不就行了？

I'll just buy a utility sector.

这种板块基金和你们做的产品，到底有什么不一样？

What's the difference between that sector fund versus what you guys are doing?

我们做主题型ETF的时候，根本不会被MSCI或者某个指数公司对行业定义的框架捆住。

When we create a thematic ETF, it's not really necessarily constrained by what you know, GSCI says or some you know, one of the one of the index provider says is involved in a sector.

很多时候，我们会跨越好几个不同的行业。

It's really often spanning a variety of sectors.

这个基金就包含了工业、公用事业，还有国际公司和美国本土企业。

So this fund in particular has, you know, some industrials, some utilities, some international companies, some US companies.

关键问题不是怎么代表某个特定行业，而是怎么抓住未来几年正在发生的这个趋势。

The question is different, it's not how do you represent a specific sector, it is how do you benefit from this trend that's playing out over the next several years?

所以，主题型基金的聚焦点要比单纯的行业基金精准得多。

And so it's a very it's a much more tailored focus when you're talking about thematic funds than it is when you're investing in sector funds.

行业基金当然也有它的价值。

Sector funds definitely have their place.

我们在First Trust也管理很多行业基金，但当我们考虑主题时，关键问题是：这个趋势是什么？它正在如何发展？哪些公司会从中受益？我们能不能构建一个投资组合来捕捉这些公司？

We have a lot of sector funds at First Trust, but that's when we're thinking about themes, it's what is the trend, how is the trend playing out, and what sort of companies are gonna benefit, and then can we create a portfolio that represents those companies?

你太厉害了。

Damn you're good.

现在电力基础设施建设这么热，有没有什么其他新能源可以发挥作用？

Is the way that things go now with the building over the power grid, are there any alternative energy sources that could come into play to help?

还是说，这事儿就这么定了，新能源还太遥远，根本帮不上忙？

Or is it like, no, this is this is just kind of the way things go and the alternative energy sources are so far out in the future, it wouldn't make a dent in any of this?

电力基础设施基金的一个好处是，我们其实并不太在意电力到底是从哪儿来的。

One of the great things about a power grid fund is that we don't really necessarily care what the source of power generation is.

不过话说回来，我觉得未来几年会涌现出很多了不起的技术，比如冷核聚变——这东西过去几十年一直都说再过十年就能实现。

That being said, I think there's amazing technology that's on the horizon, whether we're talking about cold fusion, which is always, you know, for the last few decades has been ten ten years off.

所以我们得看看，最终是这种技术成真，还是小型模块化核反应堆会胜出。

So we'll see if that comes to fruition or whether it's small modular nuclear reactors.

这些技术在提高发电效率方面前景广阔，但不管用哪种方式，一旦要融入系统，都离不开同样的基础设施。

And, you know, there's there's huge promise for all these technologies having more efficient ways to generate power, but they all still need the same sort of infrastructure if you're gonna build them into the system.

所以，如果这些清洁能源真的实现了，你们的基金不管怎样都能受益，对吧？

So if those clean energy sources do come, your fund is positioned to benefit either way?

我觉得是的，没错。

I think so, yeah, yeah.

尤其是现在的电网系统根本不是为这类能源设计的。

Especially because the current power grid system is not positioned, it wasn't created for those sorts of sources of generation.

过去的电网是上百年来零敲碎打拼凑起来的，主要为了应对集中式发电，比如烧煤，然后电力一路向下输送。

Wasn't, it was, The power grid was patched together over the last century to manage generation that was centrally located from burning coal or something like that, and then everything flows downstream.

而新的电网需要应对多种发电来源、发电的不稳定性、电池储能，还有电力的双向流动——比如有人装了太阳能板，还想把多余的电卖回电网。

When we think about the new power grid that has different sources of generation, different intermittency of that generation, batteries integrated, two way flow of electricity because you know, someone generates solar power and they wanna sell it back onto the grid.

所有这些都需要一种全新的电网，以及一套完全不同的技术，没错。

All of that requires a different kind of power grid and a different set of technology and and yeah.

所以我觉得，不管哪种情况，我们的基金都已经做好了准备，能从中受益。

So I think either way, we're well positioned with this fund to benefit from that build out.

太好了。

Perfect.

瑞安，如果大家想了解更多关于这个基金的信息，该去哪里呢？

Ryan, if we wanna have people learn more about the fund, where do we send them?

想了解更多关于这个基金的信息，可以访问我们的网站：ftportfolios.com。

A great place to find more information on the fund would be our website, which is ftportfolios.com.

我不知道在你们的播客里提一下我们自己的First Trust ROI播客合不合适，但这也是一个不错的渠道。

I don't know if I can give a plug for the First Trust ROI podcast while I'm on your podcast, but that's another place where you

可以收听。

can are for.

我们过去几年一直在做这个播客，各大播客平台都能找到。

We've been hosting our podcast for the last few years, and that can be found on all the podcast platforms as well.

在我的播客里，我们会聊这些话题，还有其他相关的内容。

So we talk about these things and and other topics on the podcast that I host.

很好。

Perfect.

非常感谢你，瑞安。

Thanks so much, Ryan.

好的。

Alright.

谢谢大家。

Thanks, guys.

明白了。

Okay.

感谢瑞安。

Thank you to Ryan.

别忘了访问 ftportfolios.com，了解更多关于 Grid 的信息。

Remember to check out ftportfolios.com to learn more about Grid.

欢迎发送邮件至 animalspirits@compoundnews.com。

Email us animalspirits@compoundnews.com.