畅聊你的书：加密货币已死吗？

今天这期《动物精神》读书分享由Grayscale赞助播出。

Today's Animal Spirits Talk Your Book is brought to you by Grayscale.

访问grayscale.com，了解更多关于他们全套加密货币ETF产品，以及他们新推出的科研项目《The Stack》。

Go to grayscale.com to learn more about their whole suite of crypto ETFs and also their new research project called The Stack.

更多信息请访问grayscale.com。

That's grayscale.com to learn more.

欢迎收听《动物精神》，一档探讨市场、生活与投资的节目。

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.

本期节目由迈克尔·巴特尼克和本·卡尔森主持，聊聊他们最近读的书、写的文章和看的影片。

Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.

迈克尔和本在节目中表达的所有观点均为个人意见，不代表Ritholtz财富管理公司的立场。

All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

本播客仅供信息参考，不构成任何投资建议。

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.

Ritholtz财富管理的客户可能持有本节目讨论的证券。

Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

欢迎来到迈克尔和本的《动物精神》。

Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.

本，我想问你一个我之前问克里斯塔的同样的问题。

Ben, I'm gonna ask you the the same question that I opened the show with with Krista.

我觉得她的回答并不意外，但你得说实话。

I think, you know, her answer was not surprising, but be honest.

就当没人在听。

Pretend nobody's listening.

比特币是不是已经死了？

Is is Bitcoin dead?

没有。

No.

因为每次有人说它死了，它最后都会强势反弹。

Because every time someone says it's dead, then it comes roaring back eventually.

对我来说，加密货币历史上最看涨的一点就是，每次它看起来要完蛋了，其实并没有。

That that to me is the most bullish thing about crypto in aggregate in its history is the fact that every time it feels like it's dead, it's not.

你知道吗，有意思的是什么？

You know what's interesting?

现在一枚币值六万两千美元。

It's $62,000 a coin.

没错。

Right.

我知道现在价格离高点差得远，虽然我们正处于牛市，但感觉好像已经没戏了。

I mean, I know it's well off the highs, and we're in a bull market, and it feels like it's dead.

或者，如果你当初花了一块二买的，现在肯定心情不太好。

Or, you know, if you bought it at $1.20, you're not feeling so great right now.

但五年前，我都不记得那时候价格是多少了。

But five years ago I don't know what the price is five years ago.

你五年前要是能接受这个价格，或者干脆说，2010年底那时候，你就能接受了。

You would have taken this five years ago or maybe, let's call it, like, late twenty ten.

如果你那时候说比特币将来能到六万，加密货币总市值能突破两万亿美元，你肯定觉得这是彻底成功了。

So if you just said Bitcoin's gonna be at 60, the market cap of crypto is gonna be over 2,000,000,000,000, you would have said total success.

对。

Right.

没错。

Right.

是吧？

Right?

但确实，目标一直在变，而且以前更高。

But yes, the goalposts, they always move and it was higher.

当然，别觉得比特币完蛋了。

Obviously, don't think Bitcoin is dead.

不过，这确实是个艰难的时期。

This this is a painful period, though.

我觉得每次新的加密货币寒冬，都比上一次更难熬。

I feel like every time every new crypto winter is a little more painful than the last.

不对。

No.

我觉得还没死。

I don't think it's dead.

但说实话，我也搞不清楚下一个引爆点会是什么。

But also, I have no idea what the next catalyst is.

而且我也没看到外面有什么特别兴奋的迹象。

And I don't see, like, a lot of excitement out there.

我觉得下一个引爆点可能是价格上涨。

Think the next catalyst is higher prices.

我说这话有点开玩笑的意思，但又不是完全在开玩笑。

And I'm I'm, like, sort of kidding, but not.

那问题来了，什么才会让价格涨上去呢？

And the question is what leads to higher prices?

我觉得其实不需要太多条件。

I don't think it needs much.

只要不再有卖家就行了。

Just no more sellers.

再说一遍，我就像回到了那种原始的市场状态，但你知道的，错失恐惧症永远不会消失。

Again, I'm, like, getting back to, like, you know, caveman markets here, but the fear of missing out can never die.

这就是为什么在所有资产类别中，这个市场的情绪化程度最高。

That is the reason why this is the most emotional of all asset classes.

我是说，每次它进入牛市时，感觉都像一股不可阻挡、战无不胜的力量。

And I say that when it's going up, feels like an unstoppable, unbeatable force every time it it goes into a bull market.

而每次它陷入熊市时，大家就会惊呼：天哪。

And every time it's in a bear market, it's like, oh my gosh.

我们当时是怎么想的？

What were we thinking?

感觉情绪被放大了。

It it just the emotions are amplified.

我觉得全天候交易之类的东西让情况有点变化。

I think the twenty four seven trading and all that stuff kind of changes a little.

这挺有意思的。

Do you it's kind of funny.

你觉得ETF有没有让加密货币变得更像一个常规的市场工具，让交易时段内的表现比非交易时段更重要了？以前可不是这样，非交易时段对加密货币的影响大得多。

Do you think that the the ETF has pulled crypto back a little bit to be more like a regular market vehicle where it matters more in market hours than outside of It used to be outside of market hours mattered way more for crypto.

我不记得你刚才说什么了，但我们确实把所有东西都提前了。

Well, I don't remember what you were talking about, but we pulled forward everything.

你那个观点，说我们把一切都提前了。

Your theory of we pulled forward everything.

你刚才说的是加密货币，还是别的东西？

Were you talking about crypto with that or something else?

不是，不过我觉得把它归到一起也无妨。

No, but I'm happy to lump it in.

好吧。

Alright.

那就把加密货币也算上吧，毕竟我们提前释放了大量需求。

Well, lump crypto in because we pulled forward a lot of demand.

ETF一直备受期待，现在我们正在消化它的后续影响，这事儿显然已经过去了。

The the ETF was highly anticipated, and now we're digesting whatever you know, we're obviously on the aftermath of that.

那我们就不多扯了，直接进入和Grayscale的Krista Lynch的对话。

So no more stuffing on the toes of our conversation with Krista Lynch from Grayscale.

Krista，很高兴再次见到你。

Krista, it's great to see you again.

谢谢你来参加节目。

Thanks for coming on.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

好的。

Alright.

我先问个简单的问题。

I'm gonna start with the softball.

我们今天是7月13号，星期一录的音。

We're recording on Monday, July 13.

比特币现在是六万两千美元。

Bitcoin is at 62,000.

唉，从高点跌下来不少啊。

Well, well, well off its highs.

我记得去年冬天的时候，还涨到过一千二百美元左右呢。

I think it hit $1.20 or something like that last, last winter.

没有。

No.

根本没到。

Not even.

哦，等等。

Oh, wait.

稍等一下。

Hold on a sec.

我这是在看什么？

What am I looking at?

哎呀。

Whoops.

这张图搞错了。

That's the wrong chart.

我本来看的是两年期债券。

This was less I'm looking at two year bonds.

这绝对不是两年期债券。

It's definitely not two year bonds.

我记得应该是去年春天的事。

This was it was last spring, I believe.

是去年春天吗？

Was it last spring?

这说得通。

That makes sense.

对。

Yep.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

所以是去年春天。

So last spring.

行吧。

Alright.

不管怎么说，这东西现在可不受欢迎，说得客气点。

Anyway, it's out of favor to put it mildly.

我问你个问题。

So let me ask you this.

比特币是不是已经死了？

Is Bitcoin dead?

没有。

No.

那我先说一下，我们灰度基金对这个资产类别长期保持信心，而且

So I guess I'll start off by saying that we at Grayscale have long term conviction in the asset class and there are

我只是确认一下。

I was just checking.

我的意思是，我真心希望我们能，而且我们确实能。

I I mean, I really I would hope that we do, but but we do.

在这个过程中难免会遇到一些波折，尤其是像加密货币这样波动性较大的资产类别。

And there are going to be these bumps along the road, especially with a relatively volatile asset class like crypto.

虽然经历这样的阶段让人不安，但底层其实正在发生很多积极的变化。

And while it can be disconcerting to be going through one of those phases, there are a lot of really positive things that are happening underneath the surface.

我们后面肯定会更深入聊这些，但对我而言，过去几个月最关注的就是基础设施建设。

So I'm sure we'll get into these a bit more, but for me, the biggest area of focus in the past few months has been infrastructure build.

这种投入不一定马上反映在价格上，但区块链基础设施本身确实在获得实实在在的投资。

And you don't necessarily see immediate price appreciation as a result of that, but there is real investment going on in the blockchain infrastructure itself.

我觉得这非常有前景。

So I think that's very promising.

我们已经看到一些山寨币领域出现了令人振奋的迹象。

We have seen some areas of excitement in certain altcoins.

我们也会谈到这些。

We'll probably get into those as well.

但那些真正有实用价值的山寨币，还是回到加密货币和传统资产的交汇点，也就是基础设施的连接性，比如Hyperliquid和Canton就是例子。

But altcoins that are showing real utility, again, going back to that intersection between crypto and traditional assets, that infrastructure connectivity, Hyperliquid being one of them, Canton being another one.

所以我觉得，尽管比特币和其他数字资产的价格并没有特别高涨。

And so I do think that while things have not necessarily been exuberant for Bitcoin and other digital asset prices.

但这段时间里，我们依然能找到一些乐观的迹象，继续在幕后为时机成熟时做好准备。

It's still been a time where we can find pockets of optimism and continue to build behind the scenes for when the time is right.

这个资产类别的心理机制到底是什么？也许我理解错了，但感觉行情好的时候，好像没什么能拦住加密货币，它迟早会涨到一百万。

What is it about the psychology of this asset class that maybe I'm off here, but it seems like when things are going well, it feels like nothing can stop crypto, and it's just gonna go to a million.

而行情差的时候，又觉得糟糕透顶，完了，全完了。

And when things are going badly, it just feels really bad like, oh, no.

这回真要归零了。

Now it's going to zero.

为什么这个资产类别的情绪波动会这么剧烈？

Why is it so heightened in this asset class?

不知为什么，每次这种情况发生，都感觉像一列失控的货运列车，无论往哪个方向都停不下来。

It it feels different for some reason that it's like a runaway freight train of momentum in both directions whenever that happens.

是的。

Yeah.

行情上涨的时候待在这个领域确实很爽，就像你说的；但一旦跌起来，感觉又完全相反。

It is really fun to be in the space when things are up and to the right, like you said, and it can be quite the opposite when they're going in the other direction.

我觉得这个资产类别还比较年轻，而且要记住，很多最早参与加密货币的人，当初根本没被主流接受。

I think it is a relatively nascent asset class, and there are, keep in mind, a lot of people who originally got involved with crypto, and were really not embraced, you know, by the mainstream.

所以当价格出现积极上涨时，我认为那些坚持了十年以上的投资者会特别兴奋，觉得自己的信念终于得到了验证。

And so I think that when it is having moments of positive price appreciation, I do think that a lot of investors who have believed in the asset class for ten plus years, you know, they're really, really excited and feel validated.

我觉得这正是你所描述的那种情绪的来源。

And I think that leads to some of this sentiment that you described.

不过最近几个月，市场已经稍微稳定了一些。

Now in the past few months, it's become a little bit more stable.

我认为这反映了这个资产类别正在走向成熟——越来越多投资者参与进来，他们的兴趣更加多元，从机构到个人，很多人是通过ETP这类工具进入这个市场的。

And I think that that is something that speaks to the maturity of the asset class as we've gotten more investors that are, I would say, diversified in their interest in crypto that ranges from institutions to individuals who have got gotten involved in the asset class through things like the ETPs.

所以你注意到了，在最近这次下跌中，跌幅并没有过去那么剧烈，不像以前一天就能跌百分之十以上。

So you will notice in this most recent downturn, it hasn't been as precipitous as in the past when you might have seen 10 plus percent drops in one day.

这次是相对平稳地下降，现在也已经稳住了。

This has been a relatively steady decline, and it is stable, where it is now.

虽然我们当然希望价格能更高一些，但至少没再出现过去那种疯狂的动荡局面。

So while we would love to see prices higher, it's not this crazy turmoil that we were kind of used to in other periods of downturn.

我觉得这次感觉特别糟糕，原因有很多。

I think one of the reasons why it feels particularly bad well, there's a bunch.

第一，感觉人工智能抢走了所有关注，人才也大量从加密领域流向了AI行业。

Number one, it feels like AI is sucking the oxygen out of every room, And there is a real talent exodus from crypto to AI.

不过我觉得，那波潮头早就过去了。

And I think that's probably way in the past at this point.

现在这种情况已经不发生了。

That's not happening now.

那会儿确实发生过。

Happened.

但另一点是，你看股市现在几乎逼近了历史最高点。

It But the other is that you see the stock market right near an all time high.

看到加密货币，不只是比特币，表现得这么差，确实让人挺沮丧的。

And to see crypto, not just Bitcoin performing this way, it feels crappy.

现在有个借口，也许这么说不太准确，但为什么比特币能有这样的表现呢？

Now the get out of jail free card, and that might be the wrong expression here, but in terms of like, well, why is Bitcoin performing this way?

你要是觉得我这说法有点牵强，尽管说。

Tell me if I'm reaching here.

你可能会不同意。

You might disagree.

比特币说到底就是一段软件，或者说是代码之类的。

Bitcoin is software or it's code or whatever.

现在软件已经不再吞噬世界了。

And software is no longer eating the world.

反而是世界在吞噬软件。

The world is eating software.

很多软件公司的股价表现得非常糟糕。

And the equity of a lot of software companies has been doing really poorly.

如果你对比一下比特币和像IGV这样的ETF走势图，会发现它们的走势很相似。

And if you look at a chart of Bitcoin versus the ETFs, IGV, for example, it looks pretty similar.

所以，比特币和股市齐创新高时却陷入熊市，其实也没那么难理解。

Maybe it's not that that confusing or that big of a mystery why it's in a, bear market with the stock market at an all time high.

我很欣赏你关于人工智能的见解。

I really like your point about AI.

确实有一段时间，加密货币是大家热议的焦点。

There was definitely a period of time where crypto was the hot topic.

对于那些想参与当下最热门话题的人来说，加密货币几乎是首选。

It was the, I would say, alt of choice for those who wanted to get involved in the most percolating topic of the day.

再回到资产成熟度这个点，对很多人来说，加密货币依然很新，但比起ETP大规模推动普及之前，它已经没那么新鲜了。

And, again, going back to that point about maturity of the asset class, crypto is still very new for many, but it is not as, novel as it was before the ETPs really allowed mass adoption of it.

有一段时间，人工智能正好接过了这个位置。

And AI did for a period of time kind of take that place.

所以我同意，从投资角度看，我们确实是在和人工智能这类资产竞争。

So I do agree that from an investment standpoint, we are competing with the likes of AI.

当然，加密货币仍然算得上是新兴事物，但它在极短的时间内已经实现了大规模普及，进展非常惊人。

Of course, crypto remains something that is relatively new and nascent, but it has come so far in a very short period of time in in terms of mass adoption.

你提到要看一些股票的表现，我觉得我们确实会关注多个宏观指标来分析加密货币，我从来没想过有一天我们会拿明天的CPI数据来讨论比特币价格，但现在真的就这么发生了。

And your point about looking at some equities as well, I think we do look at a number of macro indicators for crypto, and I never really thought we'd be talking about the CPI print tomorrow in the context of Bitcoin prices, but we are.

所以确实，现在市场上可供选择的投资标的越来越多了。

And so I think that it is true that there are more competing investments out there.

但就像我说的，加密货币正在为金融系统构建底层基础设施，这种价值不会一夜之间体现在价格上。

But like I said, the fact that we continue to build, for crypto to actually be something contributing infrastructure of how we run the banking system, that's not going to ultimately, manifest in price appreciation overnight.

但我认为，我们现在正在让这个资产类别发挥更根本、更真实的用途。

But I think that it is more fundamental, more, real value add that we are now putting this asset class to work for.

你觉得把比特币和软件股拿来比较，这种说法公允吗？

Do you think that it's fair, the comparison people are making between Bitcoin software stocks?

感觉好像有点说不太清。

It seems like it's I don't know.

迈克尔，如果我理解错了，你随时纠正我。

Michael, you can correct me if I'm wrong.

比如图表上这十八个月的走势。

Like, an eighteen month window on the charts.

这些线条确实走势差不多，但以前可没这种关联。

And, like, the the lines do kind of go in a similar direction, but that that relationship wasn't there before.

所以我不确定，这会不会只是大家在抛售科技股，比特币被顺带拖累了。

So I don't know if this is just this is just people just dumping tech stocks and Bitcoin is kind lumped in there.

你觉得这种类比合理吗？还是说这纯粹只是巧合？

Like, you think that it's a fair comparison or do you think this is just kind of a coincidence?

可能是市场情绪同步波动。

We could see the move in sympathy.

这事儿以前不少分析师就关注过，大家总想找投资市场里和数字资产相关性最强的板块，来推测它的价格走向。

This has been something that, I would say forecasters have looked at before and oftentimes people are trying to find the most correlated area of the investment universe to try to interpret or predict what digital asset prices are going to do.

我确实看到它和软件股有相似之处，但比特币和其他数字资产对不同投资者意味着太多不同的东西，很难简单归到某一个类别里。

I do see alignment with the software thought process, but I think Bitcoin and other digital assets mean so many different things to so many types of investors that it's hard to pigeonhole it into one specifically.

当然，对某些人来说，就像我之前提到的，这种基础设施建设的主题和软件领域确实很契合。

Now, of course, for some, like I mentioned, this kind of infrastructure build theme does align a lot with software.

但与此同时，关于价值储存的讨论依然存在。

But of course, there's still the conversation about store of value.

在我看来，现在涌现出很多新兴的金融产品，都在利用区块链技术。

To me, I think that there's a lot of new developing financial products that are leveraging blockchain solutions.

比如说，如果我们聊到Hyperliquid，大概就会谈到永续合约。

Like, if we get into Hyperliquid, I think we'll probably talk about perpetual futures.

这是传统金融和加密原生投资渠道交汇的一个典型领域。

That's one area where we see this crossover between traditional finance and crypto native investment rails.

所以，你可以说这跟软件有关，但同时它也带有明显的金融属性。

And so I think that I you could argue that that has software ramifications, but I think it also has financials elements to it.

因此，我不太愿意把它硬生生归到某一个类别里，但它的逻辑确实站得住脚。

So I don't necessarily put it in one category squarely, but I think the rationale certainly makes sense.

但我更倾向于认为，数字资产对不同投资者来说意味着太多不同的东西，而且这种多样性还在不断以各种方式演变。

But I really lean back on the digital asset, space can mean so many different things to so many different investors, and we continue to see that evolve in a myriad of ways.

好吧，咱们聊聊别的吧。

So, all right, let's talk about the other stuff.

我的看法，仅供参考，我觉得比特币还没完。

I I mean, my opinion for what it's worth, I don't think Bitcoin is dead.

但我确实看不出接下来有什么明显的上涨动力。

I think that it is hard to see the next catalyst to the upside.

ETF的推出非常明显，所以在我看来，价格能涨到那一步也不奇怪。

Like the ETF was very, very, very obvious, which is why in my opinion, prices did what they did anyway.

但只要有一点儿势头就够了。

But all it takes is a little bit of momentum.

我不知道什么会成为价格突破的导火索，但其实也没那么重要，因为一旦价格开始上涨，人们就会反应过来：天啊。

And I don't know what the spark is for higher prices, but it almost doesn't matter because higher prices begin higher prices and people will think, oh, shit.

要涨到25000了。

It's going to $2.50.

我可不想错过这次机会。

I don't wanna miss it.

反正吧，也就那样了。

And, you know, whatever.

事情自然会有后续。

The story will follow.

这就是我的看法。

So that's my 2¢.

好了。

Alright.

Hyperliquid。

Hyperliquid.

本，那个给Colossus写人物专访的人叫什么名字？

Ben, what's the guy's name that writes for Colossus that writes those profiles?

多姆·库克。

Dom Cook.

对吧？

Right?

多姆·库克写了一篇特别棒的文章，调查得很到位，讲的是Hyperliquid和它的创始人在做什么。

Dom Cook wrote an awesome piece, good poll, on Hyperliquid and the founder and what they're doing there.

那真是个特别有意思的故事。

And it was a fascinating story.

对还不了解Hyperliquid的人说一下，它是个基于区块链的交易所，而且代码是开源的。

And Hyperliquid for people that aren't aware of what it is, is it's a blockchain based exchange where it's open source.

你想上架什么资产都可以。

You can list anything you could do.

平台上能做的事情特别灵活，完全是个开放的市场。

There's a lot of flexibility into what can go on there and it's marketplace.

比如SpaceX，在上市之前，就在Hyperliquid上交易过。

And so for example, SpaceX, before it became, before it went public was trading on Hyperliquid.

我记得在它IPO前的24小时里——别当真啊，但交易量确实达到了1.5亿美元，都是真实数据。

And I think that in the twenty four hours prior to the IPO, don't quote me on this, but it did a $150,000,000 of volume, like real numbers.

这让我们能很清楚地看到SpaceX上市前的市场动向。

And that gave you a very good look into where SpaceX was going to IPO.

还有原油期货，周末市场休市期间，这个话题引起了大量关注。

And then there's crude oil futures, which, obviously got a lot of attention during the weekend when the markets were closed.

这些永续合约的影响如此之大，甚至开始左右像CME和CBOE这样的传统交易所的股价，很多公司股价因此明显下跌，简直让人吃惊。

And, these perpetual futures are having such an impact to the point where it's moving equity markets like CME and CBOE and a lot of these companies are getting impacted to the downside in a way that is kind of, amazing.

我们说的是真正有实力的巨头，市值实实在在地缩水了。

Like, we're talking real established players with real market cap declines.

那么Hyperliquid到底是什么？它在数字资产生态里扮演什么角色？

So what is Hyperliquid and where do they fit into the broader digital asset story?

是的。

Yeah.

就像你提到的，Hyperliquid运营着一个去中心化交易所，专门交易永续合约。

So like you mentioned, Hyperliquid hosts this decentralized exchange where perpetual futures are traded.

你刚才说得非常好。

Think you gave a great

永续合约是这样的，抱歉。

And a perpetual future is I'm sorry.

为了让大家明白，我到底在说啥？

Just for people like, what the hell are you talking about?

是的。

Yeah.

你刚才的介绍很到位，不过咱们再深入讲讲永续合约本身——这东西原本是加密货币圈里特有的交易工具。

I think you gave a great overview, but to go drill into the perpetual future itself a little bit more, this was historically a crypto native trading tool.

它每天都会滚动更新。

It's a future that rolls on a daily basis.

所以它不会像传统期货那样，到了某个时间点就结算，无论是现金交割还是实物交割都没有。

So it does not reach a terminal point where it's settled like a traditional future would be either in cash or the underlying exposure.

永续合约过去主要是用来追踪加密资产价格的。

Perpetual futures were historically something that were used for underlying crypto exposure.

比如比特币、以太坊这些主流币种。

So Bitcoin, Ethereum, so on and so forth.

在加密原生交易者当中特别受欢迎。

And they were very popular amongst crypto native traders.

杠杆很高。

A lot of leverage.

是的。

Yes.

确实如此。

They are.

你可以使用杠杆。

You can use leverage.

没错。

Exactly.

用很少的钱就能撬动很多。

You can get a lot with a little.

一美元能办很多事。

Dollar goes a long way.

没错。

Exactly.

这大概就是为什么它在加密交易圈里这么受欢迎。

Probably why they were so popular amongst crypto trading, the crypto trading community.

但正如你提到的，它现在也成了交易传统标的资产的机会。

But as you mentioned, they have become an opportunity to also trade traditional underliers.

我觉得Hyperliquid最初引起传统交易圈关注，是在中东发生重大事件期间，那时候美国交易所正好关闭，比如周末或其他非交易时间。

So I think that Hyperliquid got most of its attention with the traditional trading community initially during the events happening in The Middle East, which were generally over weekends or other times that US exchanges were closed.

在那些时段，Hyperliquid的原油永续合约成了投资者对冲风险或进场布局的工具。

The Hyperliquid perpetual future on oil became a way for investors to take risk off the table or put risk on the table at those times.

尤其是原油，受中东局势影响很大，因此特别受关注。

And in particular, oil being highly impacted by the activities going on in The Middle East, it really got a lot of attention.

这可不是小事。

This wasn't like a little thing.

真金白银都投进去了，而且确实管用。

Like, there was real dollars and it actually worked.

在机构资本层面，可不是几个穿着睡衣的人在随便交易。

And like in like, institutional capital, there's not like a a couple of dudes in their pajamas trading this.

没错。

Exactly.

接下来几周里，我们看到像标普500这样非常传统的资产也开始出现永续合约。

And over the course of the ensuing weeks, we then saw perpetual futures on very, very traditional exposures like the S and P 500.

你提到SpaceX的时候，我作为做ETF的人，真的特别有共鸣。

And so your comments about SpaceX, to me, as you were saying that, it really resonated as an ETF person.

我们一直说，ETF过去就是一种在底层市场关闭时实现价格发现的方式，但现在我们发现，这些永续合约又提供了一种更强大的方式，在市场休市时也能发现价格。

We always say that ETFs have historically been this way to have price discovery when underlying markets are closed, but we're now finding that these perpetual futures are another enhanced way to have price discovery when markets are closed.

所以这种精神，其实和十年前、二十年前ETF给市场带来的变化非常相似。

And so that that spirit is really actually quite similar to what ETFs did for markets ten, twenty years ago.

我觉得，传统机构对永续合约可能带来的冲击或潜在威胁，现在确实非常关注这一点。

And I think that, you know, the threat or perceived threat that perpetual futures might have on some traditional providers, they're really paying attention for that reason.

我认为，这种工具已经被传统交易员真正接受了，现在甚至一些过去从不提供永续合约的传统机构，也开始申请上线这类产品。

I think that this is a tool that traditional traders have really caught onto, and we now see some of the traditional providers who did not historically have perpetual futures in their offering, filing to potentially be able to bring them to those venues as well.

所以对于还不了解Hyperliquid的人，你能解释一下区块链在这里扮演什么角色吗？

So for the people who aren't familiar with Hyperliquid, explain how the blockchain is involved here.

那区块链到底在其中起什么作用呢？

Like, what's the point of how does the blockchain help facilitate this?

接着这个话题，他们用的是哪条区块链？

And just to follow-up on that, like, what blockchain are they using?

他们是自己开发的吗？

Do they build their own?

这个代币本身可以用来参与这些永续合约的上线，不过我不打算深入讲太多，因为这不是我的专业领域。

So the the token itself can be used to, I'm not gonna get into the weeds too much here because that's not my area of expertise, but the token itself is involved in the listing of these perpetual futures.

当然，代币的使用和它们所代表的价值之间是有关联的。

And of course, there's correlation between the use of the decks and the value that those tokens provide or or represent.

因此，提供这个交易平台为传统交易者和加密原生用户都带来了巨大价值，而我们投资 Hyperliquid 代币，正是基于对这一趋势将持续增长的判断。

And so offering this venue has been a huge value add to the traditional and crypto native trading universe and then a way to capture or express our thesis that that is going to continue to grow is on investment in the Hyperliquid token itself.

所以我们刚刚推出了一只追踪 Hyperliquid 代币的 ETF。

And so we actually did just launch an ETF on the Hyperliquid token.

我们与 Hyperliquid 社区保持着非常紧密的合作，帮助他们

We work very closely with the Hyperliquid, I would say Hyperliquid community to help

那这事是什么时候发生的？

Well, when did that happen?

我们大概是三四周前推出的。

We launched it maybe about three or four weeks ago.

那代码是什么？

And what what is the ticker?

代码是HYPG，我们平时都这么简称。

It's HYPG, hype g as we like to call it colloquially.

我们和Hyperliquid的持币者和开发者们紧密合作，他们实际上为我们的基金提供了初始支持，看到社区真正参与并投资我们的产品，我们非常兴奋。

But we worked closely with the community of Hyperliquid holders and developers, and they actually helped seed our fund, which was very, very exciting to see the community actually participating and investing in our product.

几周前，本和我还在聊这个事。

Is Ben and I were talking about this a couple of weeks ago.

现在加密圈里明显有很多不满和冷漠，用词准确点说，就是大家情绪很低落。

There is obviously a lot of anger, apathy, maybe is the right word about like what's happening in crypto land.

就像年轻人说的，整个氛围差到极点。

Like, the the vibes are are down bad as the kids say.

但确实有很多事情正在发生。

But there really is a lot of things that are happening.

纽约证券交易所已经开始涉足代币化资产。

New York Stock Exchange is getting involved in tokenized assets.

你看到那些大型老牌银行都在打造自己的系统，或者升级现有的基础设施。

You're seeing a lot of the gigantic incumbent banks building their own and maybe enhancing the current rails and the networks that they run on.

如果往前看五年，区块链在后台支撑着大量应用，而普通用户根本察觉不到它的存在，那投资者怎么从中获得价值呢？

So if you fast forward five years where blockchains are powering a lot of the things behind the scenes and, you know, consumers don't really see them or interact with them, they're just, you know, there, how would the value accrue to investors?

对终端用户来说，这可能很棒，但作为一家加密公司，Grayscale的产品必须让投资者赚到钱。

Like, it could be awesome for end consumers, but Grayscale as a crypto company, want you know, you have products and you want your investors to make money.

那么，你们提供给投资者的代币，价值到底从哪里来？

And so how does the value accrue to the tokens that you offer to your investors?

有几点可以说明。

So a couple of things.

具体到代币这一点，我们通常看到，随着底层技术被广泛采用，代币本身的价格也会上涨。

I think on the token point specifically, we do generally see price appreciation in the token itself as the underlying technology is adopted.

我们回头看看Hyperliquid的例子，当这些永续合约在新闻中频繁出现的几周、几个月里，Hyperliquid代币的价格出现了大幅上涨。

So if we go back to the Hyperliquid example, if you look at the price of the Hyperliquid token over the course of the weeks and months that these perpetual futures were getting a lot of activity in the news, there was a big spike in the price of Hyperliquid, the token.

所以我认为，这种关联性通常是成立的。

So I do think that the correlation generally follows.

但更广泛地说，投资者也能从这些基础设施带来的效率提升中获益。

But now broadly, investors are also going to benefit from the efficiencies that we're able to build with these infrastructure benefits.

这并不是一种直接的收益捕获方式。

So this is less of a direct, capture.

比如，如果你用传统银行系统，而我们能用稳定币或其他原生数字方案更高效地流转资金，那大家都会受益于更低的摩擦和更低的执行成本。

But for example, if you bank on traditional rails and we are able to use stablecoins or other digital native concepts in order to move cash around more efficiently, we are all also going to benefit from lower frictions, lower costs to implement and execute these daily activities that we engage in.

最终，这会为作为终端用户的我们带来更好的价值。

And ultimately, that should bring better value to us, the user of the end technology.

但你怎么把这种价值，锁定在一个特定的代币里呢？

Now how do you capture that in a unique specific token?

我觉得这确实是个难题。

I do think that can be a challenge.

所以我个人比较关注的是一个加密货币指数，它能捕捉多个代币的整体回报，而不是去猜哪个代币能最好地体现我们为整个生态带来的提升。

And so something that I personally like to look at is a crypto index that's able to capture the return of multiple tokens instead of trying to guess which one is going to be the one that really has the best capture of this overall improvement that we're building for the universe.

我个人觉得，整个加密货币领域都会从这种投资方式中受益。

So I personally think that crypto overall will benefit from this type of, investment.

要挑出具体的代币确实很难，但你可以借助像灰度这样的数字原生机构，它们已经帮你筛选好了哪些代币适合以ETP形式推向市场。

It is hard to pick individual tokens, but that's why you can also lean on a digital native issuer like Grayscale who's kind of doing that work for you by selecting which tokens we bring to market in ETP form.

你也可以随时选择加密货币指数ETF，因为它能广泛覆盖整个生态系统中经过筛选的资产。

And you can always fall back on a crypto index ETF because it will capture a broad swath of the ecosystem again selected.

你的指数ETF是哪个？

What's your index ETF?

是GDLC，灰度CoinDesk加密货币五指数。

It's ticker GDLC, the Grayscale CoinDesk crypto five.

我们测算过，通过这个单一代码，投资者就能获得加密市场约90%的回报。

And we've measured that that actually gets investors about 90% of the returns of the crypto universe through that one ticker.

这里面的权重是怎么分配的？

How's everything weighted in there?

是按市值加权，还是你们主观选择？

Is it market cap, or are you guys discretionary?

是按市值加权的，所以主要集中在比特币和以太坊上。

It's market cap weighted, so it is heavily Bitcoin and Ethereum.

但我认为这反映了真实的市值分布，也能让投资者通过这三个代币，加上比特币和以太坊，全面体验加密市场的整体表现。

But I think that that is, again, representative of the market cap weights and also will help an investor achieve the experience of the crypto market broadly with three tokens beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum majors making up that tail.

另一个基础设施方向，我想是大家最近很关注的稳定币。

So the other infrastructure play, I guess, is stablecoins that people are excited about.

能解释一下这个想法背后的逻辑吗？稳定币是怎么融入整个金融生态系统的？

Explain how what the idea there is and how stablecoins can fit into the whole financial market ecosystem.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得稳定币很好地展示了未来几年内，这个领域可能如何快速发展。

So I think stablecoins are a great illustration of where things could go and how quickly they could go there within the next few years.

如果你回想一下几年前市场对稳定币的反应——在我眼里，它们其实就是代币化的美元或代币化的法币——那时候大家对这个并不太感兴趣。

If you think about how markets were reacting to stablecoins, which are, in my view, effectively tokenized dollars or tokenized fiat, Just a couple years ago, people were not super excited about this.

我跟不少传统金融从业者聊过，他们觉得这事儿挺无聊的。

It seemed sort of boring from most of the traditional practitioners that I talked to.

当然，那些从小接触加密货币的人就更认同了。

Of course, more crypto native users were more bought into it.

但现在，你听到大银行都在想办法用稳定币来转移抵押品。

But these days, you hear big banks investing in ways that they can send collateral.

这样他们就能用稳定币在银行体系内更高效地调动资金，诸如此类。

That way they can move money around the bank using stablecoins and so on and so forth.

这事儿已经从过去那种‘传统用户无感、加密原生用户狂热’的状态，变成了人人都觉得有意思。

And it's moved from being a topic that was either kind of ho for the traditional user base and exciting for crypto natives to being exciting for all.

回看这个发展轨迹，我觉得我们现在对代币化股票和现实资产代币化，正处在几年前稳定币所处的阶段——很多传统从业者还在问：‘我们在谈这个，但到底有什么实际价值？’

And when we think about that trajectory, I think we're kind of in that phase of a few years ago for tokenized equities and tokenized real world assets where a lot of traditional practitioners are saying, okay.

我们正在讨论这个问题，但好处到底在哪？

We're talking about this, but where is the value add?

但我认为，现在这些好处正逐渐显现，就像当年稳定币一样，一开始没人看懂，现在我们终于开始尝到甜头了。

And I think that we're really starting to see some of those elements come through much as we did for stablecoins where it wasn't immediately clear, but we're now starting to reap the benefits.

所以我认为，代币化股票和代币化现实资产也会走类似的路，我们终将看到实际价值逐渐显现，投资和采用会呈指数增长，最终让这些成为我们日常操作的一部分。

And so I think that we're gonna see a similar path for tokenized equities, tokenized real world assets where we start to really see the value coming through and we see exponential investment and buy in to really implementing these as things that we do on a routine basis.

Grayscale 很早就为普通投资者提供了加密资产配置的途径。

Grayscale was famously involved early the crypto allocation for regular investors.

对于那些不想去 Coinbase 或其他平台开钱包、折腾一整套流程的人来说。

For people that didn't want to go to Coinbase or another platform and open the wallet and go through all that whole thing.

如果他们想在券商账户里持有加密资产，就会买 GBTC。

If they wanted crypto in the brokerage account, they bought GBTC.

因为它是封闭式基金，交易价格长期大幅溢价，市场上一直热议 ETF 上市后会怎样。

And because it functioned like a closed end fund, because it was a closed end fund, it traded at a big premium and there was a lot of conversation in the market around what would happen with the ETF and all that sort of stuff.

现在市场上又冒出一个备受关注的新玩家，那就是 Strategy。

Well, there's another player in town that is getting a lot of attention, and that is strategy.

迈克尔·塞勒一直是比特币最积极的倡导者之一。

And Michael Saylor has been a vocal, maybe the vocal evangelist for Bitcoin.

哪怕卖肾也要留着比特币，千万别卖。

Sell your kidney if you have to, never sell your Bitcoin.

他确实发过这条推文。

He actually tweeted that.

于是他搞了个数字资产金库，想法是买比特币的速度得快过稀释股东收益的速度。

And so he created this digital asset treasury where the idea was he could buy Bitcoin faster than he can dilute the shareholders earning this Bitcoin yield.

行情上涨的时候，这招特别管用。

And it worked really well on the way up.

但行情下跌时就不灵了，所以他又搞了个优先股融资渠道，觉得这样能更便宜地拿到资金。

And it's not working so well on the way down to the point where he created another funding vehicle, a preferred stock stretch, where he thought it was a cheaper way of getting to the capital markets.

总之，一堆术语，但现在情况变了，他得卖点比特币来支付那些股息。

And anyway, lot of gobbledygook, but now we're on the other side of that, and he actually needs to sell some Bitcoin to fund some of these dividends.

你不用代表整个加密社区发言，但我挺好奇，大家对他参与这件事怎么看？他到底有多重要？

You don't need to speak on behalf of the entire crypto community, but I'm curious to get your maybe anecdotal take on how people are responding to his involvement and how important he is.

很多人之前都说，他是上涨时唯一的买家。

Because a lot of people were saying he was the only buyer on the way up.

现在他不买了，更别说卖了。

Now that he's not buying, forget about selling.

我不是说他非得被强制平仓之类的极端情况，但市场上确实少了一个大买家。

Like, I'm not saying that he's going to need to be liquidated or anything like extreme like that, but there's just one less whale buyer in the market.

比特币没有他还能不能涨起来，这可能才是问题。

Can Bitcoin rally without it maybe is the question.

对。

Yeah.

我有几点想法。

A couple thoughts.

我觉得他做的这些事，反而让比特币获得了更多关注，我们现在不就在讨论这个吗？

So I think ultimately what he has built has created more buzz around Bitcoin where I we're talking about it right now.

作为一种负责任的投资策略，帮助投资者更方便地参与比特币，我觉得没什么问题。

As a responsibly run strategy in a way that brings, Bitcoin access to investors, I think that there's nothing wrong with it.

这不过是另一种带杠杆和其他功能的比特币投资方式罢了。

It's just a different flavor of Bitcoin access with leverage and other features.

上周，这个基金确实卖掉了一些比特币。

Now the the fund did actually sell some Bitcoin last week.

我们看到抛售的时候，市场往往会有不同的解读。

And I think oftentimes when we see selling, sometimes the market picks that up and has a number of different interpretations of it.

关于这一点，我想说两点。

Two things I would say on that topic.

我觉得他们赚的钱足够支付未来十七个月的股息了。

I think that they generated enough cash to pay their dividend for I think seventeen months.

所以我们认为他们的运作是稳定的。

So we view that as stability of their setup.

在这种情况下，卖出比特币其实是个明智的决定。

I think that the selling of Bitcoin was a responsible move in that case.

但从供需角度看，这确实增加了市场的供应量。

But from a supply demand perspective, of course, it does put more supply in the market.

就像你提到的，如果他们不再买入，那这个渠道对比特币的需求就减少了。

And as you alluded to, if you're selling them, there's less demand for Bitcoin from that vehicle.

那时候，比特币ETF也在经历资金外流。

Now Bitcoin ETFs were also having a period of outflows at that time.

我觉得在六月份，这些产品整体的净流出可能超过了十亿美元。

I think in the month of June, they had maybe over a billion dollars in outflows from the products collectively.

当然，我们不希望看到资金外流，但让我们欣慰的是，市场吸收这些流出的方式相当有序。

Of course, we don't love to see outflows, but we were pleased to see the, I would say, orderly nature of how the market consumed that.

除了比特币和其他数字资产国债产品的资金外流，市场依然能够平稳地消化掉这些压力。

So in addition to Bitcoin outflows and outflows from other products like digital asset treasuries, the market was really able to consume that in a very stable manner.

我们旗下的两款产品——低成本的比特币和以太坊迷你产品（BTC和ETH），在那段时期反而吸纳了更多资产。

Now our two products in, the Bitcoin and Ethereum landscape are low cost Bitcoin and Ethereum mini products, BTC and ETH, actually gathered assets during that phase.

尽管当时整体趋势是资金大量撤出，但我们依然成功吸引了资产，这主要来自那些被低费率吸引的长期持有者，我们对此非常满意。

So we were quite pleased to see that although the overwhelming direction of travel was out of these products, we were actually still able to gain assets from what we believe to be long term holders who are very compelled by the low fee of those products.

对于真正长期持有的投资者来说，他们似乎仍在持续进入这个市场，从我们这两只基金的资产流入就能看出来，尽管一些短期投资者因为其他原因离场，确实带来了供需压力。

So for investors who are really long hold, it appears that they are still getting involved in the space as we measure by assets into those two funds, even though there might be other reasons why less sticky holders are getting out of the funds and that does create supply demand challenges as you alluded to.

但整体来看，这段时期非常平稳，这也说明这些产品经受住了市场的下行考验。

But again, it was a very orderly period, and so I think that it speaks to the fact that all of these products have been able to weather that downturn.

当然，就像我们之前说的，市场上涨的时候总是更让人兴奋，但总会有阶段表现不如预期。

And, of course, like we talked about earlier, it's always more exciting when things are up and to the right, but there are going to be periods of time when things are not as rosy.