畅谈你的书：在疯狂世界中把握固定收益

今天由景顺提供的《动物精神谈书》节目。

Today's Animal Spirits Talk Your Book is brought to you by Invesco.

前往 invesco.com 了解他们完整的固定收益ETF产品系列。

Go to invesco.com to learn more about their whole suite of fixed income ETFs.

更多详情请访问 invesco.com。

That's invesco.com to learn more.

欢迎收听《动物精神》，这是一档关于市场、生活与投资的节目。

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.

迈克尔·巴特尼克和本·卡尔森将与您分享他们正在阅读、写作和观看的内容。

Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.

迈克尔和本表达的所有观点均为他们个人意见，不代表里特尔茨财富管理公司的立场。

All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

本播客仅作信息参考之用，不应作为任何投资决策的依据。

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.

里特尔茨财富管理公司的客户可能持有本播客中讨论的证券。

Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

欢迎来到迈克尔和本的《动物精神》。

Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.

在今天的《Talk Your Book》中，我们邀请了Invesco的业务战略与发展主管斯蒂芬妮·拉罗西勒。

On today's Talk Your Book, we have Stephanie Larosiliere, head of business strategy and development at Invesco.

我从这期节目中学会的一件事是。

Here's the thing that I learned from this episode.

现在市场上有数不清的固定收益产品可供选择。

There are just a million fixed income products now available to people.

前几天邓肯问我，嘿，我不是以为固定收益产品应该能对冲这种地缘政治危机吗？我的问题是，你持有的是哪种固定收益产品？

Duncan was asking me the other day, hey, I thought fixed income was supposed to hedge against geopolitical crises like this, and it's kind of my question was what kind of fixed income do you have?

你有浮动利率基金吗？

Do you have a floating rate fund?

你有市政债券基金吗？

Do you have a muni fund?

你有某种结构性信贷产品吗？

Do you have some sort of structured credit?

你有综合债券基金吗？

Do you have a total bond fund?

这是个好观点。

That's a good point.

固定收益产品已经变得广泛得多，与过去相比也大不相同了。

Fixed income has gotten a lot broader, and it's a lot different than it used to be in the past.

以前，人们一想到风险规避就会买债券，但现在没那么简单了。

Back in the day, you just assumed, all right, risk off, bonds on, and it's not so simple anymore.

是的，我认为我们这十年学到的是，固定收益市场存在多种不同环境，其表现也会因环境而异。

Yes, and I think that's what we've learned this decade is that there's a lot of different environments in fixing and can perform differently under different environments.

利率上升、利率下降、通胀升高、通胀降低，我认为如果你希望实现保护，分散投资的必要性可能比以往任何时候都更强。

Rising rates, lower rates, higher inflation, lower inflation, and I think the need for diversification if you're gonna want to protect is probably greater than it's been.

所以我们和Stephanie聊了这些内容，包括他们提供的不同产品、全球局势、利率变化、经济如何影响市场、通胀预期等等。

So anyway, we talked to Stephanie about all this stuff, the different products they have, what's going on in the world, what's going on with the rates, how the economy is impacting it, inflation expectations, all this good stuff.

接下来是我们的对话，与Stephanie的访谈。

So here's our talk with Stephanie.

斯蒂芬妮，

Stephanie,

欢迎来到节目。

welcome to the show.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

好的。

Alright.

今天，我们将讨论公共信贷，也就是债券，历史上它们一直是投资组合中枯燥、乏味的部分。

Today, we're gonna be talking about public credit, AKA bonds, which historically have been a boring, the boring, deliberately part of the portfolio.

考虑到贷款市场其他领域的所有新闻头条，现在听起来‘乏味’似乎还挺不错的。

And given all of the headlines in the other area of the loan market, I'd boring sounds pretty good right now.

斯蒂芬妮，最近你和客户主要聊些什么呢？

What are what sort of client conversations are you having these days, Stephanie?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，无聊这个词和债券非常相似。

So boring, that is very synonymous with bonds.

对吧？

Right?

如今，对话再次围绕收入来源、灵活性和机会展开。

These days, the conversations are again around sources of income, flexibility, and opportunity.

对于许多投资者来说，现在关键是平衡几件事情。

It's about trying to balance a couple of things for a lot of investors right now.

既要获得真实收益，又要应对地缘政治的动荡局面，同时在利率前景仍不确定的情况下保持灵活应变。

It's about earning real income, managing the geopolitical volatile situation, and trying to stay nimble as the rate path remains uncertain ahead of us.

在景顺，你们有大量不同的选择，我认为固定收益投资者从未有过如此多的选择。

At Invesco, you have plenty of different options, and I I think there's never been more options for fixed income investors.

你如何帮助人们理清哪些选择是合适的？

How do you help people sort through what makes sense?

因为如今在信贷领域有太多不同的投资方向。

Because there's so many different places to allocate to credit these days.

现在光买一个总债券基金或国债已经不那么简单了。

It's not as easy as just buying a total bond fund anymore or buying treasuries.

我想你当然可以这么做，但你显然有更多其他选择。

I guess you could do that, but you obviously have a lot of other options.

那么，你如何帮助人们理清现在该关注哪些地方呢？

So how do you help people sort through where to look these days?

是的。

Yeah.

这关乎收入需求、稳定性需求，以及你在风险谱系中的位置，对吧？

It's about, you know, the need for income, need for stability, where are you on the risk spectrum, right?

我们在哪里能看到机会？

And where do we see the opportunities?

所以，我认为目前我们看好市场的几个不同领域。

So I'd say, right now, we like a couple of different parts of the market.

我们看好结构性信贷。

We like structured credit.

那里存在一些低效之处。

There are some inefficiencies that exist there.

我们喜欢投资级债券。

We like investment grade.

收益率曲线的中期部分是一个非常好的选择。

The intermediate part of the curve is a is a really good place to be.

我们喜欢超短期产品。

We like ultra short.

你知道，我们发现有很多地方都存在机会。

You know, there's there's all sorts of places that that we find opportunity.

因此，目前关键在于理解并匹配风险偏好与投资标的。

So it's really about understanding and marrying the risk appetite with the investment at this point.

你提到超短期限产品，这让你感到意外吗？

Are you surprised that you mentioned ultra short duration.

你对仍有高达7万亿美元的货币市场基金感到意外吗？

Are you surprised that there's still, I guess, I checked, 7,000,000,000,000 in money market funds?

在过去的大约两周之前，所有迹象都表明宽松周期可能会继续。

And prior to the last, call it, two weeks, all indications were that the easing cycle would probably continue.

即使不继续，联邦基金利率也已经远低于其高位，但投资者在其他收益率曲线部分和债券市场的其他机会中获得的收益仍低于预期。

And even if it didn't, like, we the Fed funds rates are already well off their highs, and yet investors are still getting less than they could in other areas of the curve and other opportunities within the broader bond market.

对此你感到惊讶吗？

Are you surprised by that?

我们并不太惊讶。

We're not too surprised.

说到底，人们真的想了解利率正在发生什么变化。

You know, really what it comes down to is people really wanna understand what's happening with rates.

对吧？

Right?

而我们目前面临着一种前瞻性的不确定性。

And there's this forward looking lack of clarity that we have.

我们认为，现在通过我们的超短期ETF GSY，可以让人们在保持投资的同时获得收益，而无需对利率的时机或幅度做出强烈判断。

And we think right now with our ultra short ETF GSY, it really allows people to have, you know, stay invested, earn that yield, but not take a really high conviction on the timing or magnitude of interest rates.

我认为这正是关键所在，人们感到极度不确定，宁愿停留在曲线前端，保持超短期投资，投入货币市场，也不愿承担更多的利率风险，却根本不知道未来会怎样。

And I think that's really what it is, is that people just feel super uncertain and they'd rather stay on the front end of the curve, stay in ultra short, stay in money markets rather than, you know, take more rate risk and just not know which end is up.

迈克尔谈到了公开市场与私人市场的区别，显然私人信贷最近备受关注，这对作为公开固定收益经理的你来说肯定是好事。

Michael talked about the public versus private thing, and obviously private credit is in the news a lot, which as a public fixed income manager has to be great for you.

你肯定对此感觉相当不错。

You have to feel feel pretty good about that.

但当人们谈论信贷中更具非流动性的一面时，你是如何应对这些对话的呢？

But how do you handle conversations when people talk about the more illiquid side of of credit?

你认为投资者在信贷部分的投资组合中是否有必要承担非流动性风险？

And and what do you think about do people need to have illiquidity risk in their in the credit side of their portfolio?

当我们思考美国公司的数量以及其中私人公司与公开公司的比例时，实际上美国绝大多数公司仍然是私人企业。

Well, when we think about, you know, the number of companies in The US and the amount that are private versus public, it's really a large majority of of the companies in The US that are still private.

对吧？

Right?

所以，如果你只关注公开市场，那你就会错过大约一半以上目前存在的公司，对吧？

So if you are just doing public markets, you are missing out on, call it, you know, over 50% of the outstanding companies that are out there, right?

所以它确实有其存在的空间。

So there's definitely a place for it.

我认为到目前为止，主要被忽视的、尤其是对散户而言的，是其中伴随的风险，对吧？

What I think has gone, without being said, mostly to retail as of now, is just the risks that are associated there, right?

比如流动性不足、基本面信息缺失，你无法获得关于私募信贷发行人的标普报告。

So the illiquidity, the fundamentals, you're not getting an S and P, you know, report on your private credit issuers.

而在公开市场方面，我们作为基金管理者，有责任确保我们充分了解每一家信用主体。

Whereas, you know, on the public side of the market, we get paid to manage these funds to make sure that we understand every individual credit.

我们不仅进行内部尽职调查和债券分析，还能利用外部资源。

We're not only doing our internal due diligence, internal analysis on the bonds, there's also external resources we can use.

因此，私募信贷市场存在这种不透明性，我认为人们必须清楚自己持有的是什么，而这一侧市场确实非常难以把握。

So there's just this opaqueness in the, you know, the private credit side of the market that I think people just need to know what they own, and it's really difficult on that side of the market.

而且你还必须意识到，你习惯于在ETF或共同基金中获得的每日流动性，在那里很可能无法获得。

And you also need to know that more than likely that daily liquidity that you're used to on your ETF or your mutual fund, you're not gonna get it there.

我们看到十年期国债创下了数月来的新低。

We saw the ten year make new multi month lows.

所以它一度跌至约3.9%，这是自去年四月以来的最低水平。

So it got as low as, say, 3.9%, which is the lowest it had been since last April.

随后，地缘政治不稳定成为头条新闻，利率立即从3.9%飙升至4.3%。

And then, of course, geopolitical instability captured the headlines and immediately rates rocketed up from three nine all the way up to four three.

之后利率又略微回落了一些。

They've since come in a little bit.

当十年期国债利率如此剧烈波动时，你该如何配置投资组合？

How do you think about positioning a portfolio when the tenure is is roller coastering all over the place?

因此，我们倾向于选择曲线的中期部分。

For that reason, we tend to like the intermediate part of the curve.

我们认为，这样可以有效降低下行风险，并更好地适应当前的市场环境。

We think that you can get a lot of downside mitigation and be better aligned to the current environment.

在曲线的这一部分，你能获得不错的收益率。

You get a decent yield at that part of the curve.

在经济增长放缓的环境下，它起到了下行缓冲的作用。

It's a downside ballast in a slowing growth environment.

长期资产的波动压力也不会那么令人担忧。

Volatility pressures of long duration assets also, you know, are not going to be as as much of a concern.

而且前端所蕴含的再投资风险也不存在。

And then the reinvestment risk that's embedded in in the front end, don't have there as well.

因此，我们在配置核心加 portfolios 和核心 portfolios 时，特别倾向于曲线的中部区域。

So it's kind of finding that belly of the curve is really where we like to be in terms of our particularly core plus portfolios and and our core portfolios as well.

我想知道，你是如何从利率和像人工智能这样的力量角度来考虑长期规划的？

I'm curious how you manage the long term thinking in terms of interest rates, in terms of like a force like AI.

技术本应具有通缩效应。

Technology is supposed to be deflationary.

你会不会在配置固定收益投资组合时，考虑这类长期趋势？

Do you think about long term trends like that in terms of positioning fixed income portfolios?

还是你觉得，决定这些利率的因素远不止技术本身？

Or do you think, no, there's way more that goes into setting these these rates than just technology?

你是如何看待像这样的长期通缩力量的？

Like, how do you think about a longer term deflationary force like that?

因此，这是影响我们对未来利率预期的诸多因素之一。

So it's one of the factors that that goes into our forward looking expectation on rates.

所以，当我们思考技术与资本支出时，它仍然是推动增长的主要因素。

So, you know, when we think about technology and we think about CapEx, it continues to be a major contributor of growth.

对吧？

Right?

我们也在考虑可能拖累增长的高能源价格。

And we think about the elevated energy prices that could weigh on growth.

这就像是硬币的两面。

So it's like you have two sides of a coin.

人工智能也在影响软件和各个行业的基本面。

You have AI that's also impacting fundamentals across software and and, you know, various industries.

再加上，宏观背景依然保持强劲。

You add to that, you know, the macro backdrop that is, you know, continues to remain solid.

尽管我们持续看到经济产出，但对衰退的担忧却一直在减弱。

And there are concerns about recession, which have continued to decline in the face of of, you know, the, economic output that we continue to see.

当我们考虑科技时，它是一个因素。

When we think about technology, it's a factor.

它并不是主要因素。

It's not the main factor.

还有许多其他因素也在产生影响，比如通胀的持续性。

There are a number of other other things that also weigh in and the stickiness of of inflation.

地缘政治风险、伊朗战争等所有这些因素，都会影响我们对未来利率走势的预期。

Now the geopolitical risk, the war in Iran, all of these things, go into, you know, our forward looking assessment on what we expect rates to do.

考虑到宏观新闻和利率变动，信贷利差却相对平稳，这让你感到意外吗？

Are you surprised that given the macro headlines, the move in rates, that credit spreads have been relatively subdued?

我们并不感到意外。

We aren't surprised.

我认为基本面仍然相当强劲。

I think the fundamentals, continue to be pretty strong.

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为我们正在关注资产负债表。

So I think we're looking at balance sheets.

我们正在关注那些持续表现良好、基本面强劲的公司。

We're looking at, you know, companies that continue to to perform, in in ways that that we expect and and have been strong fundamentally.

因此，虽然你可能会预期利差在这里略微扩大，但我认为推动当前局面的是底层的基本面。

So while you would expect, you know, spreads to blow out here a little bit, I think the underlying fundamentals are what's driving the day.

所以我今天问了迈克尔这个问题。

So I asked Michael this today.

也许你能给出更好的答案。

Maybe you can provide a better answer.

让我感到有趣的是，人们如此担心固定收益市场或私人信贷领域的状况，担心那里会出现真正的压力，但利差和高收益债仍然如此紧缩。

It's interesting to me that people are so worried about what's going on in the private side of fixed income or the private credit space and worried that there's gonna be real stress there, but spreads and high yield are still so tight.

你觉得这真的合理吗？还是说其中一个领域最终必须有所调整？

Do you think that that actually makes sense, or is is does it kinda like something has to give in one of those areas?

确实感觉某个地方必须做出调整。

It does feel like something has to give.

确实感觉，问题的关注点应该放在其他地方。

It does feel like, you know, the the concern should be placed elsewhere.

高收益债券的质量是我们市场上有史以来最高的，就我们看到的这些公司的基本面而言。

High yield is the highest quality high yield we've seen in our market ever in terms of, you know, just the fundamentals that we're seeing out of these companies.

所以，你所看到的BB级信用债，和十年前的BB级信用债已经不一样了。

So, you know, your double b rated credit is not the same double b rated credit that it was ten years ago.

对吧？

Right?

我认为这一点并没有真正反映在投资环境中。

I think that is something that isn't necessarily translating to, you know, the investing environment.

普通的共同基金或ETF投资者，我认为并不了解这一点。

Your average mutual fund ETF buyer, I don't think necessarily understands that.

关于私募信贷的担忧，我认为是真实存在的。

The concerns with private credit, I think those are real things.

高收益债券这里有一些机会，我们应该对市场的这一部分更有信心。

High yield, there's some opportunities here, and and we should be seeing, you know, more more confidence in that part of the market.

所以我很好奇，为什么这些高收益发行人的质量要高这么多？

So I'm curious, why is the quality so much higher in these in these high yield issuers?

发生了什么变化，让它们处于如此有利的位置？

What what happened that made them in such a better position?

问题公司都已经消失了。

The problem children are gone.

对吧？

Right?

多年来，你经历了一次彻底的清理，那些无力应对市场环境的较弱信用主体已经不再构成问题。

So over the years, you've had, you know, essentially, a cleaning of house where the weaker credits that couldn't withstand there, the market environment have kind of not become an issue.

它们已经违约了。

They've defaulted.

它们已经不在了。

They're no longer.

因此，我们留下的都是在前瞻性基础上基本面更好、且更符合当前市场环境的公司。

And so what we've been left with are companies that have much better fundamentals on a forward looking basis and companies that are more better aligned with the current market environment.

你知道，我们经常谈论人工智能，还有那些蟑螂之类的东西。

You know, we talk a lot about AI and I guess the cockroaches and all of that.

这些根本不存在于高收益市场中。

None of that really is in the high yield market.

这些东西主要出现在市场的其他部分。

A lot of that is in other parts of the market.

所以我认为，相比投资级债券或私人信贷等市场其他领域，高收益市场对此的担忧更少。

So I think even that, is less of a concern for high yield than it is for, you know, for perhaps investment grade in other parts of of the market like private credit.

过去几年，固定收益ETF显然大受欢迎。

So fixed income ETFs have obviously exploded in popularity over the last couple of years.

你认为这种结构为什么对普通投资者如此有吸引力？

What do you think it is about this wrapper that makes it so, attractive for the everyday investor?

当你想到固定收益ETF时，它本质上是一种经过验证的共同基金投资方式。

When you think about fixed income ETFs, you have the tried and true it's a play on mutual funds.

对吧？

Right?

固定收益主动型ETF本质上是将多年来投资者在共同基金中所期待的特性，封装到一种更具税务效率和成本效率的结构中。

Fixed income active ETFs are basically taking what people over the years have come to expect in a mutual fund and put it into a wrapper that is more tax efficient and more cost efficient.

因此，当我们考虑ETF这种结构时，它的运营成本比共同基金更低。

So when we think about, you know, the ETF wrapper, we've got lower operating costs than you do in mutual funds.

而且，你也不需要支付过户代理费用。

You also have, you know, no transfer agent costs.

所有这些包含在共同基金中的其他费用，你都不用承担与平台相关的开支。

All these other costs that are built into a mutual fund, you don't have that platform related expenses.

因此，我们讨论的是，管理费远低于共同基金的水平。

And so we're talking about, you know, a management fee that is much lower than what you would get in a mutual fund.

再加上税务效率，对吧？

And then when you add to that the tax efficiency, right?

通过实物申购和赎回机制，可以限制资本利得的实现。

So the in kind creation, the redemptions, it limits capital gains.

在我们的市政债券产品系列中，我们经常说这一点：你赚取了收益，但如果还得把收益以资本利得的形式吐出去，那可就不太愉快了。

And a lot of times, you know, we always say this in our muni suite, it's, you earn the yield, if you have to give it back in capital gains, that's not a very pleasant experience.

对吧？

Right?

使用ETF结构，资本利得比在共同基金中要少得多。

With the ETF wrapper, the fact that, you know, capital gains is is much less than what you would have in a mutual fund.

而且，基金经理可以选择要交付什么。

And then, you know, PMs can choose what to deliver.

因此，他们不会在ETF内部触发资本利得。

So they're not triggering capital gains inside of the ETF.

它还允许主动型管理人实现亏损收割、控制换手率，并避免出售他们不希望卖出的债券。

It also allows for active managers to harvest losses, manage turnover, and avoid selling, you know, the bonds that they don't want to.

所以我认为，所有这些都让ETF对最终用户来说成为一个非常有吸引力的投资工具。

So I think all of that for the end user makes it a very attractive vehicle.

我的观点是，2020年代初的许多债券投资者突然意识到，他们的固定收益投资组合可能不够分散，因为如果他们只持有广泛的债券基金，而利率上升，他们的投资就会遭受重创，于是他们开始意识到：等等，这可不是我当初预期的。

My contention is that a lot of bond investors in the early 2020s kind of woke up to the fact that maybe they're not diversified enough in their fixed income portfolios, because if they just held, you know, a broad based bond fund and rates rose, they got crushed, they kind of said, wait a minute, this is not what I signed up for.

我以为债券是投资组合的平衡器，是基石，而固定收益中的一些其他领域实际上挺过了这场风暴，比如浮动利率基金，对吧？

I thought bonds were the balance of the portfolio, they're the anchor, and there were some of these other areas in fixed income that actually weathered the storm pretty well, something like a floating rate fund, right?

它的期限更短。

It's shorter duration.

收益率随着市场发生了显著变化。

The yields changed considerably with the market.

当有人试图弄清楚，为了在通胀飙升、利率快速上升、债券大幅下跌等情况下保护自己，该如何添加这些其他资产到投资组合中呢？

How do you think about adding these other pieces to a portfolio when someone is trying to figure out, like, what do I need to do to protect myself against scenarios like that where inflation spikes and rates rise very quickly and my bonds get crushed?

比如，你该如何考虑向投资组合中推荐浮动利率产品？

Like, how how do you think through something like presenting a floating rate option to to a portfolio?

首先，必须了解你的久期敞口。

First, have to understand your duration exposure.

你对这个敞口感到安心吗？

And are you comfortable with it?

对吧？

Right?

如果你不安心，那么浮动利率产品可能是一个非常好的选择。

So if you're if you're not, then floating rate might be a really good option.

我们这里有一只浮动利率投资级ETF。

You know, we have our variable rate investment grade ETF here.

它有助于应对当前最令人担忧的问题之一，即利率的不确定性。

It helps to address one of the biggest concerns out there, which is rate uncertainty.

它让你能够重新评估如何产生收益，而无需在利率方面过度押注于单一的宏观经济结果。

It allows you to reevaluate how to generate income without overcommitting in terms of where you wanna be from a rate perspective to a single macroeconomic outcome.

对吧？

Right?

未来走向如何，谁也说不准。

It's anyone's game in terms of of where things go.

因此，采用这种策略，我们认为你可以获得投资级信用债券，其票息会随着利率变化而调整，有助于降低利率敏感性，同时仍能产生收益。

So with that particular strategy, we think you can get investment grade credit with coupons that resets that reset as rates change, and it helps to reduce that interest rate sensitivity, but you're still generating that income.

所以我认为浮动利率的好处在于，它基本上让你兼得两者之利。

So I think that's a nice thing about about floating rate is that you get the best of both worlds essentially.

回到人工智能的话题，你是否担心这些公司现在负债过高？

Getting back to the AI stuff, is there any worry that these companies are now getting over levered?

我想既然我们现在必须讨论具体公司名称，甲骨文应该要开始测试了，但它的债务规模确实开始影响自由现金流。

I guess Oracle is supposed to trial now that we have to discuss individual names here, but the amount of debt is definitely starting to land free cash flow.

你是否担心投资级债券的利差会扩大？

Is there any concern that investment grade spreads might widen?

这是我们团队正在评估的一个问题。

That is something that our team is evaluating.

你知道，目前人工智能领域的一些信用状况确实令人担忧。

You know, there are some concerns right now with credits inside of AI.

这 definitely 推动了我们在此看到的一些表现，但许多公司也从中受益。

That has definitely been driving some of the performance that we've seen there, but a lot of companies are benefiting from this as well.

对吧？

Right?

所以关键是要做好信用研究，弄清楚哪些公司受益，哪些公司过度杠杆化，以及这将如何影响它们的利润。

So it's it's making sure you're doing that credit research to understand which companies are benefiting and which companies are over levering and how that will affect their bottom line.

因此，作为一名固定收益经理，我很想知道，当看起来我们已经整整十七年没有经历真正的信用周期时，你是如何应对信用风险的？

So I'm curious as a fixed income manager, how you deal with credit when it seems like we haven't had a real credit cycle in like seventeen years, right?

我们经历过一次短暂的小型衰退，但并不是由金融或信贷驱动的。

We had one small short recession, but it wasn't driven by financials or credit.

当时并没有出现利差急剧扩大的情况。

There wasn't like spreads blowing out.

那只是新冠疫情，所以似乎有很多投资者像我一样担心：如果即将发生衰退，就不想把资金配置到某个特定领域，当然，我们之所以没有经历衰退，也有其原因。

It was just the pandemic, and so it seems like there's probably a lot of investors who are worried like I don't want to allocate to a specific space if a recession is going to happen, and obviously there's reasons that maybe that we haven't had a recession.

经济规模更大、更具活力、更加多元化，诸如此类。

The economy is just bigger and more dynamic and more diversified and all these things.

对你来说，这是否更多是关于选择正确的行业，而不是试图预测什么会冲击整个固定收益市场？

Is it more about picking the right sectors for you instead of trying to figure out what's going to impact the entire fixed income market?

对我来说，思考在真正的信贷周期中——如果真的发生的话——各种情况会如何不同，是很有趣的。

It's interesting to me to think through like how different things would look during an actual credit cycle if and when that ever happens.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我认为关键是保持一定的灵活性。

So I think it's about having some flexibility.

在我们的某些策略中，比如我们的核心增强型策略，我们的ETF产品GTO，我们会根据宏观环境、估值和风险收益权衡来调整我们的持仓敞口。

In some of our strategies, our core plus, let's say, you know, our ETF there, GTO, that's one where we are adjusting our exposures based on macro conditions, valuations, and risk reward trade off.

因此，我们并不会被限制在市场的任何特定板块。

So we're not tied to any particular sectors of the market.

该投资组合会投资于国债、机构债和投资级公司债。

The portfolio does invest across treasuries, agencies, investment grade corporates.

我们寻求多种收入来源，但同时也努力维持投资组合中AA级的平均信用质量。

We're looking for multiple streams of income, but we're also trying to maintain a double a average credit quality, in the portfolio.

因此，这一特定策略采取了更具主题性的方法，是一种更具宏观意识、能随环境变化而调整的策略，我们认为这在你刚刚描述的这种环境中至关重要。

So that particular strategy takes a more thematic approach, and it's a more macro aware strategy that adapts as conditions change, which we think is really important in an environment, you know, like the one that you just described.

2022年正如本之前提到的，对固定收益投资者来说是一个非常艰难的环境。

2022 was a Ben alluded to this earlier, really tough environment for fixed income investors.

债券本应是稳定器。

That was supposed to be the ballast.

没有人预料到利率会从零飙升到百分之五。

I don't think anybody foresaw interest rates going from zero to five percent.

可能性极低。

Highly unlikely.

嗯，我不太想说不可能。

Well, I wish I wouldn't say unlikely.

利率现在已经不是零了，所以不可能再从零涨到百分之五。

Interest rates are not at 0%, so they can't possibly go from zero to five again.

利率的初始水平如何影响债券为投资组合提供的整体保护和收益？

What does the starting level of interest rates do to the overall level of protection and income that bonds can help with the portfolio?

当我们关注利率的起点时，这是你能在投资组合中获得的收益的重要组成部分。

When we look at where rates start, it's it's an important part of the carry that you're able to earn in a portfolio.

因此，当你从较高的利率环境开始时，你实际上能享受到投资组合中更高收益率带来的好处。

So when you're starting from a higher higher rate environment, you actually have the benefit of those higher yields that you're earning in your portfolio.

这意味着，随着时间推移，由于投资组合中的收益支撑，你通常能更好地应对利率变动。

So that means that over time, typically, you can weather a a rate change a little bit better because of that carry in the portfolio.

这一点，我们的投资级团队在如何配置投资组合方面已经做了大量工作。

That's something that, you know, our investment grade team has done quite a bit of in terms of just how we position our portfolios.

这一直是许多投资者的一大卖点。

It's been a a big selling point for a lot of our investors.

理解投资组合在收益率曲线上的定位以及我们从起始收益率角度看的位置，将决定最终的结果。

It's just understanding how the portfolio's positioned on the curve and where we are from a starting yield perspective is going to dictate where you end up.

所以，假设我们因为某种原因真的陷入了衰退。

So let's let's say we we did go into recession for whatever reason.

确实存在一个信用周期。

There's an actual credit cycle.

我们经历了一次轻微的衰退，因为人工智能公司和科技公司过度支出，资本支出导致了泡沫，因为他们花得太多，却没能获得投资回报。

We have a minor recession because AI companies and the tech companies spent too much, and CapEx brings us into a bubble because they spent too much and they didn't get the return on their investment.

在这种情况下，即收益率下降、利差扩大时，固定收益领域中哪些部分最让你担忧？有没有哪个固定收益细分领域会让你觉得：‘如果出现这种情况，我就担心了’？

What areas of fixed income would you be most concerned with heading into that in that situation, A situation where yields fall, we have spreads blow out, anything any areas where you say like, all right, that would worry me if we had this situation with this part of the fixed income spectrum?

是的，我认为非机构抵押贷款会是一个值得关注的领域，对吧？

Yeah, I think non agency mortgages would be an area of concern, right?

一旦出现衰退，失业率上升，越来越多的人可能无法偿还抵押贷款。

You start to see a recession, people unemployment's going up, and you have more and more where people are potentially defaulting on their mortgages.

所以这会是一个值得关注的领域。

So that would be one area of concern.

另一个是市政债券。

Another one would be munis.

市政债券通常与国家的经济状况密切相关。

Munis tend to be very much tied to the economic conditions of the country.

因此，如果我们面临衰退，你的市政债券，尤其是高收益市政债券，可能会面临一些困难。

So if we're looking at, you know, recession, then, you know, your municipal bonds, particularly your high yield munis, may actually have a bit of a tough time.

通常高收益债券，但鉴于目前高收益市场的状况，我认为只有在出现非常深度和广泛的衰退时，才会像历史上衰退时期那样对高收益市场造成显著影响。

Typically high yield, but right now, given the state of the high yield market, I think, you know, it would take a pretty deep and wide type of recession to actually affect the high yield market in ways that it's historically been affected by recessionary periods.

我们之前谈到了人工智能及其相关风险。

We talked about AI and the exposure there.

我认为这也是一个重大担忧，尤其是在投资级领域。

I think that would be a big concern as well, particularly in the investment grade space.

所以你实际上认为，正如你之前所说，高收益公司的质量普遍较高，除非出现类似金融危机的情况，否则不会看到这些公司出现大规模违约，因为它们的资产负债表质量更高？

So you actually think because, like you said before, high yield companies are so much higher quality that you wouldn't see like a unless it was like a financial crisis situation, you wouldn't see a huge run-in default on these companies because they have higher quality balance sheets?

我认为这很可能是会发生的情况，是的。

I do think that that is likely the scenario, yeah.

如果投资者正在寻找一种类似于私募信贷的流动性替代品，他们应该考虑 senior loan ETF 吗？

If investors are looking for some sort of liquid proxy for private credit, should they look to senior loan ETFs?

这算接近吗，还是说这样理解并不合适

Is that close or is that not really a good way to think about

呢？

it?

我认为这是一个相当不错的替代品。

I think that's a pretty good proxy.

是的。

Yeah.

你提到的这个市场领域中，很多发行主体是相似的。

You're talking about a lot of similar issuers in that part of the market.

所以，我认为这会是一个不错的替代品。

So, I think that would be a good proxy.

而且这个领域的流动性，比普通私人信贷的流动性要好得多。

And you have much better liquidity in that space than you would in your typical private credit.

所以私人信贷行业的情况大家都比较了解了。

So the story in private credit is is fairly well known.

相关风险已经从发放银团贷款的银行，转移到了那些向大型资管机构、另类资管机构放贷的银行身上，而这些资管机构再向各类企业发放贷款。

Risks shifted from the banks making these syndicated loans to banks making loans to large asset managers, alternative asset managers, and they're making the loans to these companies.

现在有不少人在担忧可能发生的风险传染，觉得‘糟了，我们根本没消除风险’，那你认为这类担忧是不是有点小题大做了？

Do you think that some of the potential contagion fears that some people are talking about are overblown that, uh-oh, we we haven't we haven't eliminated the risk.

我们刚刚调整了这类敞口的呈现形式，而说到底，这最终还是会回到银行体系的问题上？

We just shifted the way that it's been exposed, and, ultimately, this does come back to the banking system?

我认为，随着我们看到私募信贷开始涉足零售领域，一场转型正在发生——风险实际上正从银行和各类机构转向个人投资者。

I think that as we're seeing private credit make its way into retail, there is a shift that's happening that is is actually moving the risk from the banks and institutions into the retail investor.

很关键的一点是。

Great.

这种转型受到的讨论程度或许还远远不够。

In a way that maybe is not being talked about enough.

我认为，私人信贷是市场中相当复杂的一部分，之所以如此，是因为你必须是某种类型的投资者，某种具备机构资质的投资者才能进入这个领域。

I think, you know, private credit, it's it's a pretty sophisticated part of the market, and there's a reason why, you know, you had to be a a type of investor, a certain type of, you know, institutional quality investor to invest there.

我认为，向散户开放这扇大门会带来一系列风险，希望比我聪明得多的人正在密切关注这些问题。

And I think opening the floodgates to retail will come with its own set of risks that, you know, hopefully, people much smarter than me are paying very close attention to.

所以，显然，巨大的转变已经从银行体系转移到了这些私人管理机构。

So because it seems like the big shift obviously has gone from the banking system to these private managers.

这真的让系统变得更安全了吗？

Has that actually made the system a little safer?

因为它们更加分散，这真的有帮助吗？还是像你说的，只是改变了风险的性质和运作方式？

Like, because they they are more diversified, does it did that actually help anything or did like you said, did that just change the risk and shift the way things work?

如果足够多的私人管理机构持有这些资产，我们也必须考虑它们与银行机构本身的关联程度。

If enough of the private managers hold these, we also have to take into account how connected they are to the banking institutions themselves.

对吧？

Right?

所以，风险确实转移了，但银行是否与这些私人管理机构有关联呢？

So the risk that risk has moved over, but are the banks connected to these private managers?

对吧？

Right?

所以我认为，这些机构之间存在一定程度的相互关联，你不能简单地抹去这种联系，说银行不会受到影响。

So I think there's a level of interconnectivity that you can't just sort of wipe away and say the banks are not affected.

银行也可能与这些私人管理者有联系，这会使银行同样面临风险，如果情况恶化，经济上可能会导致非常糟糕的局面。

The banks can also have connectivity to these managers that can lend itself to them also being exposed, which economically could result in in some pretty bad situations if if this were to go the wrong way.

斯蒂芬妮，我最后一个问题是。

Stephanie, last question for me.

你整天都在和投资者交谈。

You're talking to investors all day long.

今天你被问到哪些类型的问题？这些和过去听到的有什么不同？

What are some of the type of questions that you're having thrown at you today, and how is that different from what you were hearing in the past?

每个人都想知道如何在没有风险的情况下获得收益，对吧？

Everyone wants to know how to earn yield without risk, right?

那么，我怎样才能以最低的风险获得收入呢？

So how do I get income with the least risk possible?

其中一个反复出现的问题是，美国长期以来一直是‘例外论’交易的受益者。

And one of the questions that has been coming up, and it's been interesting in that, you know, The US has been the beneficiary of the exceptionalism trade for quite some time.

我认为，现在这种情况已经成为过去，关于全球投资去向的讨论又重新浮现了。

And I think, you know, now that's sort of in the rearview, conversations about where to invest globally have come up again.

我们曾讨论过新兴市场，但几年前，人们简直避之唯恐不及。

We've had conversations about emerging markets where, honestly, people went in touch with a 10 foot pole, you know, a couple years ago.

现在他们又开始感兴趣了。

Now they're curious.

全球债券再次成为人们关注的焦点。

Global bonds have again, you know, become, front of mind.

我不认为人们在抛售美国资产，但他们正试图通过配置世界其他地区的资产来分散对美国的敞口。

And and I don't think people are selling US, but they're looking to diversify their US exposure with other parts of of the world.

我认为这带来了很多积极的影响。

And I think there's a lot of positives that come out of that.

只是，从投资组合的角度来看，美国市场可能确实存在风险过度集中的问题。

It's just, you know, I think there might have been some over concentration of risk in in The US market from a portfolio perspective.

所以，我认为真正重要的是这种全球化的视角，以及人们现在愿意进行的对话和在这个领域前所未有的好奇心，这非常有趣。

So I'd say really just the global oriented approach and just the conversations people are willing to have and the curiosity in that space that wasn't there before has been super interesting.

斯蒂芬妮，跟我们介绍一下景顺固定收益团队的情况，再告诉大家哪里可以了解更多关于你们基金的信息。

Stephanie, tell us a little bit about the fixed income team at Invesco and then tell everyone where they can learn more about your funds as well.

景顺这里的固定收益团队由超过200名投资专业人士组成，涵盖研究和组合管理。

The fixed income team here at Invesco, we are a team of over 200 investment professionals across research and portfolio management.

我们管理着市场上各个领域的固定收益策略。

We manage fixed income strategies across various parts of the market.

我们是一个全球性的团队。

We are a global team.

我们管理着ETF、共同基金、单独账户、SMAs等等，应有尽有。

We do manage ETFs, mutual funds, separate accounts, SMAs, you name it.

我们能提供相应的解决方案。

We have a solution for it.

关于如何找到我们，请访问invesco.com，联系您的财务顾问或金融中介，他们肯定有与之合作的景顺代表。

When it comes to how to find us, go to invesco.com, talk to your financial advisor or your financial intermediary, and I'm sure they have a Invesco representative that they work with.

完美。

Perfect.

谢谢，斯蒂芬妮。

Thanks, Stephanie.

感谢你抽出时间。

We appreciate the time.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

谢谢大家。

Thanks, guys.

好的。

Okay.

感谢斯蒂芬妮。

Thank you to Stephanie.

记住，访问 invesco.com 了解更多信息，并发送邮件至 animalfuriousthecompoundnews dot com。

Remember, check out invesco.com to learn more and email us animalfuriousthecompoundnews dot com.