Talk Your Book: 价格是终极因素

今天的《动物精神：与你聊投资》节目由Motley Fool资产管理公司赞助播出。

Today's Animal Spirits Talk Your Book is brought to you by The Motley Fool Asset Management.

访问fooletfs.com，了解更多Motley Fool的各种投资策略和ETF产品。

Go to fooletfs.com to learn more about all of The Motley Fool's various strategies and ETFs.

网址是motley fool资产管理公司的fooletfs.com。

That's motley fool asset managementfooletfs.com.

欢迎收听《动物精神》，一档关于市场、生活和投资的节目。

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.

加入Michael Batnick和Ben Carlson，一起聊聊他们在读什么、写什么、看什么。

Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.

Michael和Ben表达的所有观点仅代表他们个人，不代表Ritholtz财富管理公司的立场。

All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

本播客仅供信息参考，不应作为任何投资决策的依据。

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.

Ritholtz财富管理公司的客户可能持有本播客中讨论到的证券头寸。

Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

欢迎收听迈克尔和本的《动物精神》节目。

Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.

今天节目里，我们采访了来自Motley Fool资产管理公司的比尔·曼。

On today's show, we spoke with Bill Mann from Motley Fool Asset Management.

我们之前已经和他聊过好几次了。

We've talked to him a number of times before.

互联网热潮那会儿，第一次真正感觉到，你知道，我们有那些网络聊天室，可以更快地传播信息。

The Internet boom, the first time was the first really you know, we had these Internet chat rooms, right, where you could kinda spread information faster.

那种跟风炒作的事情一直都有。

And that that whole hurting thing has always happened.

但每次新技术出现，感觉都会更上一层楼。

But it is it does just seem to go up another level with every new technology we have.

从聊天室开始，然后是社交媒体，还有博客，现在又有了人工智能。

It started with the chat rooms, and then social media came along, and and blogging, and now AI.

我确实觉得，我们今天聊的这种动量交易行为，很多动量策略，我觉得这些会被放大到极致，而且周期会变得快得多得多。

I do think that the momentum type behavior, which we're talking about today, a lot of momentum strategies, I do think that stuff is going to just get put on steroids, and those cycles are gonna be happening way, way faster.

在现代世界，长期思考和长期投资变得越来越困难。

One of the things that has become more and more difficult in the modern world is long term thinking and long term investing.

我觉得很多人心里想的是，好吧，这个周期总有一天会结束。

I think a lot of people are of the mind that, all right, this cycle is going to end at some point.

我们已经涨了很多。

We've gone up a lot.

我们也会跌很多。

We're going to go down a lot.

然后就这样了。

And then that's it.

股市就消失了。

The stock market goes away.

你不觉得有些人就是这样想的吗？我知道不是字面意思，但有些人会觉得，当周期...

Don't you think that that's sort of some people's I know not literally, but some people think like, all when the cycle

结束的时候，对。

ends Yeah.

但是不，你猜怎么着？

But no, guess what?

我们还会活着。

We're going to be alive.

如果老天保佑，你还会继续投资十年、二十年、三十年、四十年甚至更久。

You'll be investing, God willing, for the next ten, twenty, thirty, forty years and beyond.

人们总是喜欢把投资比作某种体育比赛，比如我们现在打到第几局了？

People always try to equate investing to some sort of sports analogy, like what inning are we in?

比赛其实一直在继续。

The game just keeps going.

没错。

That's right.

只是这是一种不同的比赛。

It just it's a different kind of game.

我们还在摸索，比如这一切会怎么结束，AI又意味着什么，有时候感觉我们在原地打转，但这就是我喜欢这个想法的原因。

We're still trying to figure out like how does this end, what does this mean with AI, and it feels like we're talking in circles in some ways, but I I I that's what I like the idea of.

比尔谈到了他们所谓的被动策略，这些策略是基于规则的。我觉得，这就是你强迫自己成为长期投资者的方法——你制定规则，然后不让自己去随意改变。因为有多少人会想，嘿，我想投资AI主题，但我想避开那些超大规模公司，我也想避开那些低于某个水平的公司。又有多少人会被那些同样的公司筛选出来去投资，然后你有多大的意愿去坚持持有那些刚被筛选出来的股票呢？对吧？

Bill talked about how they have, they call them passive strategies, and they're rules based, and I think that to me is the that's how you force yourself to be a long term investor is you put rules in place, and you don't try to let it, know, because how many people are going to be putting in, hey listen, I want to invest in the AI theme, but I want to stay away from the hyperscalers, but I want to avoid companies that are below this level, and how many people are getting spit out those same exact companies to invest in and putting it in, and then how willing are you gonna be to stick with one of those stocks that you just it spits out to you, Right?

规则现在比以往任何时候都重要。

Rules are more important now than ever.

我同意。

I agree.

那么，这就是我们和比尔·曼的对话。

So here's our our talk with Bill Mann.

他是Motley Fool资产管理公司的首席投资策略师。

He is the chief investment strategist at Motley Fool Asset Management.

比尔，很高兴再次见到

Bill, it is great to see

你。

you again.

迈克尔，你们看起来状态不错。

Michael, you guys look healthy.

你看起来不错。

You look good.

你还有夏天的光泽。

You've got your summer glow.

还是那么帅。

Still got it.

本留了胡子。

Ben's got a mustache.

是的，他留了。

He does.

我得仔细看才能看出来。

I have to look close when I see it.

好的。

All right.

我们今天要聊的是动量投资，这个例子我可能跟你讲过无数次了。

We are talking about momentum today, and I've I've used this example a million times, probably with you.

说到动量投资，这个领域似乎配置得不够，至少从顾问的角度来看是这样。

When talking about momentum, it seems to be an under allocated space, at least from the advisor side.

我觉得很多顾问都太迷信价值投资了。

I think a lot of advisors have drunk the value serum.

我不想用“酷”这个词。

I don't want to use coolly.

那词不太好。

That's a bad word.

价值投资本身没问题。

Nothing wrong with value.

我们也相信价值投资。

We believe in it.

各种投资者，特别是顾问，对价值投资接受度很高。

There's a wide acceptance among all sorts of investors, particularly advisors with value.

如果你比较一下资产和价值策略与动量策略，价值策略的规模远超动量策略。

And if you compare the assets and value strategies versus momentum strategies, value dwarf momentum.

而且它们真的是同一枚硬币的两面。

And they really are two sides of the same coin.

有很多行为上的异常现象，使得这些因子能够持续存在，而且持续的程度相当高。

There's a lot of behavioral anomalies that make the factors persist to the extent that they do.

但我觉得，尽管相对于价值投资，动量投资一直配置不足，但投资者基本上已经接受了动量是存在的、而且无处不在这个观点。尤其是在当今世界，这个因子之所以存在，是因为行为异常、信息传播的方式，而且现在信息传播的速度比四十年前首次发现它的时候快多了，不管那是哪一年。

But I think even though there's been an under allocation to momentum compared to value, I think investors have largely come around to the idea that momentum exists, that it is pervasive, especially in a world today where the factor exists because of behavioral anomalies, the way information spreads, and it spreads a lot faster today than it did forty years ago when it was first discovered or whatever year that was.

你觉得普通投资者——我知道这个问题有点不公平。

How do you think the general investor I know this is sort of an unfair question.

你觉得现在人们对动量的理解怎么样？

How do you think momentum is understood today?

我真希望能为动量想出一个比“动量”更好的词，当你把它作为一种投资策略来思考时，因为它听起来真的很像……

I would love to come up with a better word than momentum for momentum as you think about it as an investing strategy because it really sounds like Mr.

……蟾蜍先生的疯狂之旅。

Toad's wild ride.

就像，你被放进弹射器里，你知道，就像《愤怒的小鸟》那种情况。

Like, you're getting put into the catapult, you know, in Angry Birds type situation.

你就像被弹弓射到太空里一样。

You're getting, you know, slingshot out into space.

动量策略实际上就是追踪市场中那些行为异常现象，看看什么在起作用。

And what momentum is functionally is is is a way of tracking those behavioral anomalies of what is working in the market.

但这并不一定意味着市场中最热门的那些部分。

And that that doesn't necessarily mean the hottest components of the market.

它指的是市场中那些表现远超平时水平的部分。

What it means is the parts of the market that are showing outsized performance relative to how they usually perform.

所以，根据你所在的市场类型，价值策略和动量策略之间可能会有很大的重叠。

So you can end up with a substantial overlap between a value strategy and a momentum strategy depending on the kinds of markets that you're in.

动量策略和价值策略之间一个重要的区别是，正如我们所知，那些坚定的价值投资者，价值投资可能会经历糟糕的十年或二十年，就像我们经历过的那样。

And what's important that is different between momentum and value is that as we know, and people who are dyed in the wool value investors, value investing can have a bad decade or two as we've gone through.

动量策略的作用是，在把所有的鸡蛋都放在价值这个篮子里等待它发挥作用的同时，也稍微降低一点风险，同时你也明白，它最终会起作用，但与此同时，为什么不把投资组合的一部分配置到那些合理运作的领域呢？

And what momentum is doing is taking taking a little bit of the edge out of putting all of your eggs into that value basket, waiting for it to work with the other understanding that, you know, at some point it will, but in the meantime, why are you not allocating a component of your portfolio to the things that are working within reason?

我经常谈到，从某种间接的角度来说，标普500指数就像一种动量策略，对吧？

I've often talked about the how the fact that in a roundabout way, the S and P 500 is like a momentum strategy, right?

好的东西自然会浮上来，你让赢家继续跑，输家自然会被淘汰，但这显然不是量化定义上的动量，对吧，量化分析师会这么告诉你。

The cream rises to the top, you're letting your winners ride, the losers are kind of cutting themselves short, but obviously that's not the quantitative definition of momentum, right, like a quant would tell you.

我很好奇你怎么看，因为即使是价值因子，任何类型的量化策略，你都可以用无数种方式去拆分和组合，对吧？

I'm curious how you think about because even with value factors, any type of type of quantitative strategy, you can slice and dice it in a million ways, right?

某些针对大盘股的价值因子，因为选择的规则不同，看起来也会不一样。

Certain value factors for large cap stocks will look different because of the rules that are chosen.

那你觉得，是抓住大方向更重要，还是纠结于细节、过度优化动量策略更重要？还是说你就保持简单？

So how do you think about, like, the eighty twenty principle of getting the big stuff right versus trying to get too much into the nitty gritty, into the weeds and the details, and over optimizing a strategy for momentum that, like, it's kind of or do you just keep it simpler?

我很好奇，你觉得像这样的量化策略，需要多细的细节？

Like, I'm curious how you think about, like, the level of detail that's desired in a quantitative strategy like this.

我们首先就是简单的熊市投资者，你知道，在Motley Fool和Motley Fool资产管理公司，我们的理念是寻找高质量的公司。

We are simple bears first and foremost that, you know, at at The Motley Fool and Motley Fool Asset Management, our, you know, our philosophy is finding high quality companies.

所以我们投资范围的首选永远是那些高质量的公司，那些我们愿意长期投资的公司。

And so the top of our universe is always going to be what are the highest quality companies that, you know, that we would like to have a long term investing relationship with.

如果你理解了这种简单性，它其实是无限复杂的，对吧？

And if you understand the simplicity of that, it's endlessly complex, right?

但它的核心其实非常简单。

But but but the fundamental of it is is very simple.

我们不会去追逐市场最热门的板块。

We're not looking into the hottest parts of the market.

我们关注的是把那80%的关键部分做对。

We're looking into making sure that we're getting that 80% right.

我们始终投资于那些我们真正愿意长期持有的公司。

Like, we are invested at all times in in the types of companies that we would like to be invested in.

所以只要长期坚持这一点，最终会有回报的。

And so if you get that right over time, that should pay off.

所以我觉得，针对你的问题，可能我们通常会把动量等同于杠杆。

So I think probably, you know, thinking about your question is, I think that we tend to think or that people generally think of momentum as being the same thing as leverage.

就是那种杠杆策略。

You know, the a leverage strategy.

而我们本质上是不加杠杆的，甚至更进一步，当你关注高质量公司时，它们往往也不怎么用杠杆。

And we are fundamentally unlevered and even more so than that, you know, when you're you're looking at high quality companies, they tend to be unlevered as well.

我们想做的就是确保我们聚焦在市场里的那个领域，也就是那些市场当时看好和看重的公司。

What we are trying to do is to ensure that we are focusing in the market within that space in the, you know, in in the in the companies that the market is, you know, is favoring and valuing at that moment.

我想多聊聊一些量化指标，以及长期动能和短期回调之间的关系，还有它们最终如何影响整体表现。

I wanna talk more about some of the quantitative measures and thinking about longer term momentum versus short term breaks and how they all shake out.

但回到大家的看法上，我觉得用“动能”来形容还挺贴切的。

But just getting back to how it's perceived, momentum to me is a fair description.

我理解你的意思，大家觉得这是一种很激进的策略，但它肯定比追涨杀跌的策略好多了。

I understand your point that people think it's like this crazy strategy, but it's sure way better than the chase stock strategy.

顺便说一句，我也找不到更好的词。

I don't have a better word, by the way.

开个玩笑。

Just kidding.

但我觉得，人们想到投资时，通常会想，好吧，怎么深入了解公司，然后做研究。

But I think one of the reasons so when people think about investing, they think about, all right, how to get smart on companies and let's do research.

我们研究基本面，比如利润表、资产负债表、现金流，还有那些东西。

We research the fundamentals, the income statement, the balance sheet, cash flows, all of that sort of stuff.

试着去标准化，看看护城河、竞争优势、治理、董事会、高管团队这些方面，然后试着去理解。

Try to normalize, look at the moat, the competitive advantage, the the governance, the board, the c suite, all those sort of things, and you try and understand.

这些都可以按因子来划分，不同的因子，比如质量因子，或者你关注的其他方面。

And those could be sliced in terms of factors, different factors, quality, whatever you're looking at.

我觉得人们没有意识到价格才是最终的决定因素。

I think people don't consider that price is the ultimate factor.

价格把所有信息都浓缩了。

And price distills all of it.

动量之所以存在，根本原因，甚至在行为因素起作用之前，就是因为这些公司表现很好。

And the reason that momentum exists fundamentally before even the behavioral things kick in is because these companies are doing well.

股票不会无缘无故就有动量。

Stocks don't just get momentum.

它们有动量，是因为你研究的所有那些方面都在朝着正确的方向发展。

They get momentum because all of the things that you would research are clicking in the right direction.

然后当然还有跟风、反应不足、反应过度这些情况。

And then of course there's the, you know, the the pile on and the under reaction, the overaction, all those sort of things.

但价格才是关键。

But price is it.

我觉得人们太容易忽视这一点了，因为它听起来太简单了。

And I think people are too quick to dismiss it because it sounds so simple.

我们在投资个股的职业生涯中都见过这样的情况：你持有一只股票，对它非常兴奋，公司也表现不错，但突然股价开始表现不佳，而且有九个月的滞后。

We have all seen in our careers in investing in individual equities where you own an equity and you're very excited about it and the company is doing well, but then suddenly the the the stock starts to perform poorly and there's a lag of nine months.

然后突然，那个价格因素所理解的消息出来了，并且逐渐被市场充分理解。

And then suddenly, the news that somehow that price factor understood comes out and becomes and and becomes well understood by the market.

所以，是的，我完全同意价格是最终因素。

So, yeah, I I absolutely do agree that that that price is the ultimate factor.

而动量策略就是简单地依赖这个事实。

And a momentum strategy is simply leaning on the fact that that is true.

我们可以同意或不同意，而且似乎每次我来上你的播客，我都会抱怨一些事情。

We can agree or disagree, and it does seem like every time I come on to, I I come on to your podcast, I complain about something.

但你知道，上次是关于主动投资与被动投资，这次是关于动量。

But, you know, last time it was active versus passive, and this time it's momentum.

我年纪大了，脾气也变差了。

I'm becoming grumpy in my old age.

但说到底，你想想价格和市场里什么在起作用，这可不是随便从袋子里抽出来的。

But, I mean, you know, ultimately, when you think about price and what is working in the market, it's not like it you know, things are being pulled out of a scrabble bag.

这里面没有随机性。

There's there's not randomness to it.

它是基于那些，你知道，理想情况下能增值的实体。

It is based on entities that are, you know, that are ideally, you know, capitally appreciative.

这就是商业的本质。

That's what businesses is.

它们是核心要素。

They are they are the core element.

所以，动量策略利用那些行为异常，其实就是市场比我们所有人都聪明这一事实的浓缩，不管我们的分析有多复杂。

And so a momentum strategy looking at those behavioral anomalies is simply a distillation of the fact that the market is in fact smarter than all of us, regardless of how much sophistication we bring to our analysis.

比尔，现在没什么好抱怨的吧，我们正处于牛市。

Bill, there shouldn't be that much to complain about right now because we're in a bull market.

我们已经处于一个不错的牛市有一段时间了。

We've been in a nice bull market for a while now.

你之前提到过一个叫“诺亚原则”的概念。

You had this topic that you called the the Noah Principle.

我很好奇，能给我解释一下什么是诺亚原则，以及它为什么重要吗？

I'm I'm curious to just for explain to me what the Noah Principle is and and why it's important.

我们可以把诺亚原则追溯到《旧约》时代。

So we can think about the Noah Principle as being, you know, going back to the Old Testament.

诺亚曾经需要建造一艘方舟。

Noah at one point had to build an ark.

这个故事我就不重复了。

And, you know, that we I won't recount the story.

我相信大多数人都熟悉诺亚的故事。

I believe that, you know, most people are familiar with the story of Noah.

但诺亚在建造那艘大船的时候，有一段时间看起来像个傻瓜。

But Noah went through a period of time where he was building this large boat and looked like an idiot.

诺亚，你为什么要造一艘船呢？

Why are you building a boat, Noah?

你打算做什么呢？

What is it that you're going to do?

你怎么去收集每种动物各两只呢？

How is it that you're going to collect two of everything?

你看，当你看的时候。

You know, when look.

外面阳光明媚。

It's sunny out.

当我们考虑投资时，其中一个关键要素，一个简单的事实就是，人们很难真正有条理地为即将到来的洪水做准备。

When we think about investing, one of the, you know, one of the key elements that is that is simply true is that people have a very, very hard time preparing for, in a really principled way, the upcoming flood.

我们现在可以谈谈人工智能。

We can talk about AI now.

现在，我们知道有很多人认为人工智能正处于泡沫之中。

Right now, we know that there are a lot of people who believe that AI is in a bubble.

就像那种循环投资。

There's, like, circular investment.

还有很多事情，你知道，我们可以担心的。

There are all these things that we, you know, that that we can worry about.

而且到了某个时候，市场会决定去担心这些。

And at some point, the market will decide to worry about it.

它就会自己决定。

It'll just decide.

现在这个阶段，我不认为AI领域里有什么东西是必须成真的。

Now is the time in which I do not believe anything in AI has to be true.

我们在半导体行业就见过这种情况。

We saw it with semiconductors.

突然之间，半导体在第一个季度成了全球最热门的东西，到了第二个季度就变得冰冷了。

Suddenly, you had semiconductors, you know, they were the the hottest thing on the planet in the first quarter, and they were ice cold in the second quarter.

为什么？

Why?

你知道，所以当我们考虑管理资金和做这些决定的时候，要摆脱当前正在起作用的东西是非常非常困难的，即使你能看到地平线上有暴风雨的乌云。

It it you know, so when we think about managing money and when we think about making those decisions, it is a very, very difficult thing to get out away from the things that are working at the moment, even if you can see that there are storm clouds on the horizon.

比尔，现在的暴风雨来得比以前快多了。

Bill, those storm clouds happen faster today than they used to.

所以，当你在构建一个基本上由价格决定的策略时，你怎么看待一家公司的情况，而你只是盯着图表看。

So when building a strategy that is dictated fundamentally on price, how do you think about what happens when a company and you're just staring at the chart.

很明显，短期动能已经失去了。

Clearly, the short term momentum is lost.

一家公司从50美元涨到100美元，用了两年时间。

A company went up, went from 50 up to a $100 over a two year period.

然后在一个月内，它迅速跌到82美元。

And then over a one month period, it falls down to $82 pretty rapidly.

短期交易者会说，我退出。

The shorter term trader would say, I'm out.

完了。

Done.

很明显，势头已经没了。

Clearly has lost the momentum.

长期交易者会看周线图或者更长期的均线，然后说，不。

The longer term trader would look at say a weekly chart or whatever, a longer term moving average and say, No.

从长期赢家的角度来看，这完全正常。

This is totally normal within the scope of a long term winner.

它虽然回调了，但并没有真正破坏我们认定的长期动量信号。

It pulls back, but it hasn't really violated what we think to be the longer term momentum signals.

你怎么看待平衡这两种相互竞争的力量？

How do you think about balancing those two competing forces?

所以我们的策略，你知道，还是那样运作的，我们主要是被动管理，所以每季度更新一次。

So the way that our strategy is, you know, is working again, you know, we are primarily a passive shop, so we are updating quarterly.

所以从某种程度上说，短期图表对我们来说不太重要。

And so in some ways, the short term charts are somewhat irrelevant to us.

我们是在为当下发生的事情唱赞歌。

We're singing in the hams of the church of what's happening now.

我们每季度做再平衡的时候，用的是一种比较随机的方法，更看重长期动量的表现，而不是对短期波动特别敏感。

When we come to those rebalances quarterly, we have a fairly stochastic stochastic method of, you know, of of favoring more what the longer term, momentum is showing rather than being super sensitive.

而且，我觉得这源于一个信念，就是市场确实容易对新闻反应过度。

And, again, I think that that comes from, you know, from from a belief that the market does tend to overreact to news.

但你再想想，我之前提到的那家公司，九个月前达到顶峰，后来长期来看确实出了问题。

But if you think again, you know, what I, you know, what I was saying about a company that nine months ago, you know, hit its peak and then you figure out longer term that there actually was something wrong.

现在新闻里就有不少这样的例子，一些以前很风光的大品牌，现在麻烦不断。

And, you know, we we we see a bunch of those in the news today, some formerly high flying brands that are no longer you know, that are that that are seeing a lot of trouble.

我们倾向于根据长期趋势来做出反应，而不是短期波动。

The way that we tend to think about setting up our, you know, reacting is reacting in a, you know, much more to the longer term than to the shorter term.

我想，关于你的诺亚原则，我最大的一个看法是，多年来人们一直被各种预测轰炸，说下一个危机是什么。

I guess my, like, big broad thing on your Noah Principle is that we've just been people have been hit over the head for years with predictions about what the next shoe to drop is gonna be.

比如，这个会是压垮我们的那根稻草。

Like, what this is gonna be the thing that gets us.

我们会陷入衰退。

We're gonna be in a recession.

我们会陷入滞胀。

We're gonna be in stagflation.

回报率会很低。

It's gonna be a low return.

我和迈克尔已经反复讨论过所有这些事情，关于接下来会发生什么，现在当然，人工智能显然是一个容易想到的，而且说实话，我认为人工智能可能是最合理的那个。

Like, Michael and I have talked about all these things ad nauseam about what the next thing is that's going to get us, and now, of course, AI is obviously an easy one, and and to be honest, I I think AI is the one that probably makes the most sense.

如果资本支出出现回落，它现在在经济和市场中都占很大比重。

If there is a pullback in CapEx, it's such a big part of the economy and the markets now.

如果真的发生这种情况，似乎会对经济和市场产生显著的回落影响。

If that did happen, would seem like it would have a meaningful pullback on maybe the economy and the market.

我只是好奇你怎么看待为洪水做准备，同时明白洪水不常发生，人们如何平衡这一点。

I'm just curious how you think about just preparing for the flood with the understanding that the floods don't happen very often, and how how people can kind of balance that.

因为当你不断听到这个会崩盘那个会崩盘，但崩盘并没有发生时，这很难。

Because it is hard when you're you're constant drumbeat of this is gonna crash and that's gonna crash, then the crashes don't happen.

然后你会想，也许我变得太不担心事情了。

Then you're like, maybe I'm becoming too not worried about stuff.

这确实很难，对吧？

And it's hard, right?

这也让人无比着迷，对吧？

It's endlessly fascinating too, right?

比如说，经济学家在过去的五次衰退中预测了十五次，这种程度真是让人无语。

The degree to which economists have called 15 of the last five recessions, for example.

你知道，就像我们常说的，市场在忧虑之墙上攀爬。

You know, like, yes, there are always you know, we talk about the markets climbing a wall of worry.

我觉得，嗯，这绝对是真的。

I think that I you know, I think that that's absolutely true.

当我思考如何构建这个框架时，归根结底，我们说的是个人，你知道，是那些必须能够承受自己投资组合的个人投资者。

When I think about building the arc, if you will, ultimately, we are talking about individuals, you know, and individual investors who have to be able to live with their own portfolios.

最终，一个完美构建的投资组合，如果你对现实反应过度或反应不足，对你都没有好处。

At the end of the day, a perfectly built portfolio will do you no good if you either overreact or underreact to to reality.

我们更担心那些反应过度的人，而不是反应不足的人。而且我认为历史会证明，交易最频繁的人往往表现最差。

And I and and we worry more about people who overreact than underreact, and I think that this history would show show that people who trade the most tend to do tend to do the least well.

所以，归根结底，我们要做的是在担心这类事情和建立一个能自然调整的机制之间找到平衡。

So, ultimately, what we are trying to do is create a balance between worrying about things like that and just having a mechanism in place that adjust naturally.

还有，迈克尔，你之前提到了标普500指数。

And, Michael, you mentioned the S and P 500 earlier.

从某种程度上说，那正是它的作用。

On some levels, that's exactly what that is.

这正是标普500指数所做的。

That's exactly what the S and P 500 does.

它是一个按权重分配的机制，用来衡量市场在某个特定时刻对公司的看法。

It is a private weighted mechanism that measures how the market is thinking about companies at any given point.

这就是为什么它是有史以来最强大的工具之一，但它不是被挖掘出来的。

It's why it's one of the most powerful things that's ever been devised, but it was not mined.

它不是被发现的。

It was not discovered.

它实际上是被人设计出来的。

It was in fact devised.

你觉得关于动量这件事，今天有些讨论说，听着，现在每个分析师都能用同样的工具，不管是用哪种大语言模型，OpenAI还是Clot还是别的，我们都在问它差不多同样的问题。

Do you think with the momentum stuff, there was some chatter going around today that, listen, every analyst now has access to the same tool, whatever LLM you're using, OpenAI or Clot or whatever, we're all asking it kind of the same questions.

我们都在用同样的数据，然后过滤一遍。

We're taking the same data and filtering it through.

它们本质上就是概率性的，对吧？

They're probabilistic by nature, right?

它们不会直接给你答案，但会说，嘿，这大概就是基准情况。

They're not going give you the answers, but they're going say, hey, here's probably the baseline.

你觉得有没有可能，因为这样，未来会有更多的伤害和更多的动量，但也许动量会崩溃？

Do you think that there's actually the case to be made that there'll be more hurting in the future because of this and more momentum, but that maybe the momentum crashes?

我在这里讲得有点太理论了。

I'm getting very theoretical here.

也许动量崩溃会更严重，因为大家都只会，你知道吗？

Maybe momentum crashes will be even bigger because people are all just gonna you know what?

反正我们都在把这些思考外包给这些机器人了。

We're outsourcing all our thinking to these robots anyway.

那就直接干吧。

Let's just do it.

干嘛还要思考？

Why think?

我是说，你在Reddit论坛上也能看到这种情况。

I mean, you see it too with the Reddit forums and all that.

会有更多人涌向这些东西。

There's gonna be more herding into these things.

看起来，导致动量效应的那些行为因素，以后会被进一步放大。

It seems like the behavioral stuff that causes momentum is going to be even more amplified going forward.

我真希望之前就想到把这个研究拿出来，但有一个很有意思的研究，涉及70个不同的模型。

I wish I'd thought about pulling this up beforehand, but there's a fascinating study that looks at 70 different models.

这是华盛顿大学做的。

The University of Washington did it.

他们用70个不同的人工智能模型，去问一些像“为什么六会害怕七”这样的问题。

70 different AI models, and they would query questions that had, you know, that were things like, Why is six afraid of seven?

你知道，就给我写500字关于这个的。

You know, give me 500 words on this.

结果它们的内容惊人地相似。

And they were dramatically the same.

而且，你知道，这种倾向叫做高共识性。

And, you know, this is a tendency that's called high t.

所以，是的，绝对地，在AI模型内部，它们被设计成，它们就是旨在给你最高水平的共识。

So, yes, absolutely, within AI models, they are designed and they were they are meant to give you the highest level of consensus.

所以我觉得可能还会有更多的跟风行为。

So I think that there probably will be, additional hurting.

顺便说一句，我们以前对互联网也有同样的想法。

We thought the same thing about the Internet, by the way.

嘿。

Hey.

突然间，信息变得唾手可得。

Suddenly, information is available.

我想那时候谷歌已经出现了。

Google is out there, I guess, the time.

AltaVista和Lycos也都在，所以人们还是会问同样的问题。

AltaVista and Lycos are out there, and so people are going to be asking the same questions.

但事情并没有真的那样发展。

It didn't really happen that way.

所以我觉得会有一个曲线，但我们要记住的首要一点是，尽管市场是一个巨大的赌马系统，市场的逻辑是基于这些公司的表现。

And so I think that there will be a curve, but but the thing that we try to remember first and foremost is that is that although the market is a giant pari mutuel system, the logic of the market is based on how these companies are performing.

这些工具本身与市场并不是一一对应的。

The instruments themselves are not on a one to one correlation with the market.

企业的表现好坏与市场本身完全无关。

The businesses perform or do not perform completely separate from the market itself.

所以最终，两者会自然趋同。

And so ultimately, the convergence happens naturally.

那你如何看待行业构成方面的演变？

So how do you think about the evolving nature in terms of the sectoral composition?

你在这方面有没有设什么限制？

Do you put any guardrails around this?

因为过去两年大部分时间里，市场真的主要集中在科技和通信服务板块。

Because for much of the last couple of years, was really clustering around technology and communication services.

我记得前几天看到，2025年美国市场在科技领域的集中度是自铁路时代以来最高的，你知道，二十年代初期铁路股占了市场的70%。

I believe I read the other day that we had the highest concentration in 2025 in technology in The US markets since the railroads in, you know, in the early twenties when they were 70% of the market.

所以这显然是一个巨大的集中。

So it's obviously a huge concentration.

我觉得科技公司和铁路公司之间的区别在于，虽然我也可以说服自己反过来看，但总的来说，即使算上他们的资本投资预算，他们的资本回报率仍然非常惊人。

I guess the difference being between the technology companies and, say the railroads, although, you know, I could talk myself into the opposite position, that generally speaking, they have incredible returns on capital still, even with the capital investing, you know, investment budget, you know, that that they have.

对，我觉得动量策略真正能带来回报的一个方式，就是捕捉市场中那些细微的变化，甚至是不那么细微的变化。

Yeah, think one of the ways that, you know, that a momentum strategy can actually pay off is by picking up on the real subtle changes in the markets or even not so subtle.

你知道，2026年第一季度，全都是半导体。

Know, the first quarter of twenty twenty six, it was everything was semiconductors.

然后，2026年第二季度，我们又回到了对AI的资本投资上。

And then, you know, the second quarter of twenty twenty six, we were back to, you know, back to capital investment in AI.

我们可以假设这些变化会持续下去。

We can assume that those changes are going to continue.

我认为因子模型的一个根本特点是，它能比普通投资者更早捕捉到市场的变化。

I think one of the things that is fundamental about a factor model is that it will pick up on what the market is seeing way before the average investor can see it.

那你觉得，如果这些东西真的出了问题，会发生什么？

So what do you think happens, like, when this stuff does hurt?

我觉得动量策略有趣的地方在于，它们就像变色龙一样，不是像有些人以为的那样，动量就是投资科技股或成长股。

I think that's the interesting part to me about the momentum strategies is that they are kind of these chameleons where it's not just like some people assume, well, momentum, that's just you're investing in tech or growth stocks.

当然，成长和动量之间有很大区别，对于不投资动量的人来说，这可能会让他们感到意外。

Well, there's a big difference between growth and momentum, obviously, and for the people who don't invest in momentum, I think that's a surprise.

所以，如果股息股和高品质股票重新开始表现，那么这些股票就会出现在屏幕上。

So if if the, you know, if dividend stocks start working again in high quality stocks, like, those are the ones that are gonna show up on the screen.

我只是好奇你怎么看待从当前状态过渡到那个状态的时期。

I'm just curious how you think about the the transition periods, of getting there.

比如，如果AI热潮真的降温，我们开始看到必需消费品或这些防御性股票开始表现，那么从当前状态过渡到那个状态的过程会有多痛苦？

Like, if this AI stuff does kinda cool down and we start to see consumer staples or these more defensive names actually start working, like, how painful is the process of getting from here to there?

我觉得，考虑到市场现在有44%的资金投在科技上，而且如果你把能源行业也算进去，基本上就是押注数据中心和科技了，这真是一场巨大的赌注，而且不只是股市了。

I think given the fact that, the market is, what, 44% invested in technology, and I think probably if you if you could throw basically the energy sector into being, you know, a derivative bet on data centers, on technology at this point, I mean, it is it is a massive bet that's being made, and it's not just in equity anymore.

现在债务市场也高度杠杆化，都押在科技和AI的建设上。

I mean, the debt markets at this point are really, really highly levered towards towards the tech build out and the AI build out.

所以我觉得，不管怎样，这个过程都会很痛苦。

So I don't really see a scenario in which that is anything other than painful.

而且我觉得，就算最终目标能达到我们预期的地方，现在也有数千亿美元的投资，回报机会非常渺茫。

And I think that even, you know, even if the end goal ends up in the same, you know, in in the place that we think it's going to, there are going to be I mean, right now, there are hundreds of billions of dollars that are being invested that have very little chance of return.

我们不知道具体是哪几千亿，但我们知道肯定存在，因为大家都在猜测未来的发展方向。

We don't happen to know which those hundreds of billions are, but we know that they're out there because because people are guessing what the development is going to be.

现在他们不仅用股权，还开始用债务，所以还有时间成本在里面。

And now that they're using debt as opposed to just equity, there's a time premium involved as well.

就是说，你可能判断对了，但还是会违约。

Like, you can you can be right and still default.

这很难做到。

It's hard to do.

你知道，如果你没有杠杆，那确实很难做到，但你完全有可能做到。

You know, it it it it's hard to do if you're unlevered, but you certainly can be.

所以，对我们来说，我觉得每当经济中出现一场革命，而我认为AI就是这样的革命，过程中肯定会有真正的痛点。

So, you know, for us, I think that, you know, I I I think that whenever you have a, you know, a a revolution in an economy, and I think that that's what AI promises to be, there are going to be real, real pain points along the way.

我倒不认为这会像人们说的那样，导致大规模失业。

I don't happen to think that it's going to come in the form of the massive job losses that people are talking about.

所以，即使就业受到干扰，就业状况应该还是可以的，这应该会有帮助。

So the fact that employment, should still be okay, even if it is disrupted, should should be helpful.

从来没有哪次技术进步摧毁的岗位比它创造的岗位还多。

There's never been a, you know, a a technological advancement that has destroyed more jobs than it has created.

所以，即使我们看不到那些新岗位是什么，这也会有所帮助。

So even if we don't see what those jobs are going to be, that will be helpful.

但最终，我觉得我们可以肯定的是，我们对这些投资的财务敞口，即使核心方向是对的，也迟早会造成相当大的混乱。

But ultimately, I think we can just count on the fact that you know, the financial exposure that we have to these investments is going to cause a fair amount of disruption at some point even if the the core of it's correct.

所以，如果这种情况发生，显然会把股市拖下来。

So if and when that happens, obviously it'll drag the stock market down.

从之前的动量股转向那些在抛售中通常表现更好的股票，比如消费必需品和公用事业股，在AI之前，这种过渡会是什么样子？

What does the transition look like between the former momentum names to names that usually hold up better in a sell off, like consumer staples and utility stocks, I guess before AI.

我不

I don't

知道公用事业股还属于那个类别。

know the utility stocks are in that bucket anymore.

对，不，它们可能确实会被重创。

Yeah, no, they probably will get killed actually.

但总的来说，你觉得那会是什么样子？

But just generally, what do you think that looks like?

你们会不会持有一个投资组合，里面大量配置那些防御性股票，不管它们表现出的是绝对动量还是相对动量？

Would you guys have a portfolio that is heavy into whatever the defensive names happen to be that exhibit either absolute or maybe relative momentum?

相对动量这个说法是对的。

And relative momentum is the correct term.

你们应该知道上行捕获和下行捕获这些术语吧。

I mean, you guys know the terms upside versus downside capture.

你知道，我们的动量策略，一般来说，如果它们没有杠杆，它们并不是设计成不会下跌的。

You know, our momentum strategies are are, generally speaking, if they are unlevered, they're not built to not go down.

等等。

Wait.

什么？

What?

这场对话结束了。

This conversation is over.

把他的麦克风关掉，Travis。

Cut his mic, Travis.

没错。

That's right.

你是在虚假的前提下到这里来的。

You're here under false pretenses.

我的意思是，动量策略的承诺就是，它的下行捕获率会比整个市场低。

I mean, that that that is the the promise of momentum is, you know, is is it will have a lower downside capture than than the overall market.

不是说它会错过下跌，因为我们知道的是，而且我不是在预测这个，你知道，短期内不会发生。

Not that it will miss because what we know is that, you know, and during during and I'm not forecasting this, you know, as, you in anytime soon.

但总有一天，市场会陷入那样的危机，以至于相关性会降到一。

But at some point, it will happen that the markets will, you know, will be in such a crisis that correlations will descend to one.

就是说，会一起动。

Like, will move at once.

我们在职业生涯中已经多次看到这种情况。

We've we've seen this in our career multiple times.

当这种情况发生时，动量策略会转向那些实际上跌得最少的领域，那些表现出最强韧性的领域。

When that happens, the areas that momentum strategies will move into will be the ones that are frankly declining the least, that are, you know, that are showing the most resilience.

即使那种韧性是负的，韧性也是相对的，而这正是动量策略的核心。

Even even if that resilience is a negative number, resilience is a relative form and that's, you know, and and that's the core of a momentum strategy.

好消息是，当衰退来临时，每个人都可以声称自己提前预测到了。

The good news is when the downturn comes, everyone can claim that they predicted it ahead of time.

没错。

That's right.

那你问他们预测过多少次，结果一片沉默。

Then you ask them how many times they predicted it and there's dead silence.

比尔，给不熟悉的朋友介绍一下你的基金业务吧。

Bill, just for people who are not familiar, tell us a little bit about your fund business.

Motley Fool资产管理公司是Motley Fool出版公司的姊妹公司，大家可能更熟悉后者。

So Motley Fool Asset Management is a sister company of The Motley Fool Publishing Company, which is the company that people probably are much more familiar with.

我们在2008年开始了资产管理业务，起因是看到人们在互联网泡沫破裂时恐慌，那是在2000年代初到中期。

We started our asset management business, in 2008, and the reason that we started it is that, we saw how people had panicked during the dot com crash, you know, in in the early to mid two thousands.

所以我们想给人们一个可以信赖的地方，一个他们信任的名字。

And so we wanted to give people a place to go, you know, with a name that they trusted.

其实我们已经存在相当长一段时间了。

So we've been around actually for quite some time.

我们现在有九只ETF，其中六只是被动型的。

We have now nine ETFs, six of which are passive.

我们一直在讨论动量策略，我们确实有这种策略。

We've been talking about a momentum strategy, which we have.

我们还有其他因子，比如创新增长。

We have other factors, innovative growth.

我们还有一只价值基金。

We have a value fund.

但这些都基于我们姊妹公司Motley Fool的研究。

But these are all based upon the research of our sister company, The Motley Fool.

所以我们的管理资产规模快接近30亿美元了，而且，你知道，我们为自己的产品线感到自豪。

So we are closing in on $3,000,000,000 in assets under management, and, you know, we're we're proud of our stable.

太好了。

Great.

那人们想了解更多，该去哪里找你们呢？

So people wanna learn more, where do we send them?

这是我的家庭电话号码。

Here's my home phone number.

你可以打这个电话找我。

You can call me here.

你可以通过 fulletfs.com 联系我们。

You can you can reach us at fulletfs.com.

如果你来访问，我们还有几份通讯。

And if you do come, we've got a couple of newsletters.

我写了一份叫《街头之声》的通讯。

I write one called Man on the Street.

来注册吧，这样你每个月都能听到我更多犀利的见解。

Come sign up, and, you'll you'll you'll hear some more of my, my scurrilous thoughts on a monthly basis.

不错。

Cool.

在结束之前，我想确认一下。

And one clarification before we leave.

你提到你们有被动策略。

You said, Hey, we have passive strategies.

我想确认一下，你的意思是这些策略是基于规则的。

I just want make sure like that you're saying, listen, these are rules based.

它们不是主观决定的。

They're not discretionary.

不是有人根据感觉或自己的看法来决定怎么做。

It's not someone who's deciding what to do based on the way that they feel or how their opinion is.

这些是你运行的基于规则的策略。

These are rules based strategies that you're running.

对，它们是基于规则的策略，而且根据招股说明书就是这样设定的。

Yeah, they're rules based strategies and they are set that way by prospectus.

所以我们实际上没有任何能力在任何时候进行干预。

So we don't have any real ability to put our thumb on the scale at any point.

所以我们的表现取决于我们姊妹公司识别高质量公司的能力，以及我们制定规则并遵循策略的能力，就像我们设计的那样。

So we will be as good as the ability of our sister company to identify high quality companies, to create the top of the portfolio, you know, our capacity to have put rules in place that followed the strategies that, you know, as we have, had designated them.

有道理。

Makes sense.

好的，比尔。

Alright, Bill.

谢谢你抽时间。

Thanks for time.

非常感谢。

Appreciate

是的。

it.

很高兴和你们聊天。

Great talking to you guys.

好的。

Okay.

谢谢，比尔。

Thanks, Bill.

和他聊天总是很愉快。

Always great catching up with him.

记得去 fooletfs.com 查看更多他们的策略，然后给我们发邮件到 animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com。

Remember, check out fooletfs.com for more all their strategies, and then email us animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com.