Talk Your Book：没有人拥有的最重要的东西

今天的《Animal Spirits Talk Your Book》节目由Sprott ETFs赞助播出。

Today's Animal Spirits Talk Your Book is brought to you by Sprott ETFs.

请访问sprottetfs.com了解更多关于Sprott关键材料ETF的信息。

Go to sprottetfs.com to learn more about the Sprott critical materials ETF.

它的股票代码是S E T M。

That's ticker s e t m.

网址是sprottetfs.com。

That's sprottetfs.com.

欢迎收听《Animal Spirits》，一档关于市场、生活和投资的节目。

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.

加入Michael Batnick和Ben Carlson，一起聊聊他们在读、在写、在关注的内容。

Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.

Michael和Ben表达的所有观点都仅代表他们个人，不代表Ritholtz财富管理公司的立场。

All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

本播客仅供信息参考，不应作为任何投资决策的依据。

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.

Ritholtz Wealth Management 的客户可能会持有本期播客中讨论的证券头寸。

Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

欢迎来到《动物精神》，由 Michael 和 Ben 主持。

Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.

Michael，今天的节目里，我们采访了 Steve Schoffstall，他是 Sprott ETFs 的管理合伙人兼 ETF 业务负责人。

Michael, on today's show, we speak to Steve Schoffstall, who's the managing partner and head of ETFs at Sprott ETFs.

今天聊的是关键材料，挺有意思的，因为以前大家可不会把大宗商品跟科技投资联系在一起。

Critical materials, talking today, which is funny because you wouldn't have ever really thought of commodities as a technology play back in the day.

这次AI热潮里，我觉得有不少意外受益者。

There's a ton of, like, unintended winners, I guess, for this AI thing.

我当时真没想到，大家会猜到大宗商品生产商能从中获利，对吧？

I don't know if anyone would have thought at the time, like, oh, it's gonna be commodity material produces, obviously, right?

毕竟我们需要用到那么多原材料。

Because we're gonna need all this stuff.

而这类商品显然就是其中之一。

And that is obviously one of them, though.

就是说，如果这真的会发生，那得从地里挖出大量的材料来建造这些东西。

Like, if if this is gonna happen, there's a ton of material that needs to be extracted from the earth and used to build this stuff.

数据中心、电池和能源，这会被看作是卖铲子的投资吗？

Data center, battery, and energy, and will this be considered a picks and shovels play?

绝对是的。

Absolutely.

好的。

Okay.

比如康宁，虽然不是我们今天聊的股票，但它也是关键材料制造商，他们为光纤电缆生产的玻璃，以及所有数据中心相关的东西，都需要巨量的材料。

Corning, for example, not a stock that we spoke about today, a manufacturer of critical materials, but all of the glass they make for fiber optic cables, all the data center stuff, that all needs a gigantic amount of materials.

其中一些是关键材料。

Some of them critical.

听起来像是一部很棒的动作片，叫《关键材料》，由杰森·斯坦森主演。

That sounds like a great Jason Statham movie, Critical Materials starring Jason Statham.

确实很像。

It really does.

顺便说一句，这不仅仅是个说法。

By the way, it's not just a phrase.

其实是有某个管理机构把这些材料定义为关键材料的。

Like, there's some sort of governing body that has termed these here materials critical.

对。

Right.

就是定义上的。

To definition.

而且显然，这些材料在地球上到处都是。

And obviously, those materials are all over the earth.

对吧？

Right?

有些容易开采，有些比较难。

Some easier to get, some harder.

你觉得稀土到底有多稀有？

How rare do think rare earths really are?

你还记得《野鸭变凤凰2》里的那个场景吗？

Remember that scene of Mighty Ducks two?

其实冰岛还挺绿的。

Actually, Iceland is pretty green.

我没记错吧？

Am I getting that right?

还是说格陵兰才是那个冰天雪地的地方？

Or is Greenland the icy one?

不管怎样，事实证明稀土其实没那么稀有。

Either way, it turns out that rare earths are not that rare.

好的。

Okay.

有可能。

That's possible.

如果整个能源转型，从现在的状态到未来的目标，包括数据中心、电动车、电池这些不同的领域，那确实需要大量的材料。

If this whole energy transition, getting from here to there in terms of data centers and then electric vehicles and battery, all these different, like, it's gonna require a lot of stuff.

你知道机器人是金属做的。

You know robots are made of metal.

没错。

That's true.

所以我们就这些事和Steve聊了聊，聊了Sprott是什么公司，他们帮谁管钱。

So we talked to Steve about all of this, about who Sprott is, what they who they manage money for.

我们还深入聊了Sprott关键材料ETF的投资组合管理。

We got into all about the portfolio management of Sprott Critical Materials ETF.

就是SETM那个。

That's SETM.

我们都叫它SETM。

We call it SETM.

你一般会持什么态度？

You usually have the wrong what's your stance on this?

别这样。

Come on.

你会怎么说？

What would you say?

因为这跟你说的正好相反。

Because it's the opposite of what you said.

我觉得，真的只有一个叫法。

I mean, there's literally only one thing to call it.

就是SETM。

It's set m.

好。

K.

好了，下面是我们和Steve的对话。

Anyway, here's our conversation with Steve.

Steve，

Steve,

欢迎来到我们的节目。

welcome to the show.

很高兴来到这里。

It's great to be here.

谢谢。

Thanks.

我相信这是

I believe this is the

我们第一次采访斯普罗特的人。

first time that we've spoken with somebody at Sprott.

你能用三十秒介绍一下公司吗？

Can you tell us thirty seconds about the company?

好的。

Yeah.

我们是上市资产管理公司。

So we're a publicly listed asset manager.

在加拿大和纽约证券交易所都有上市。

We're listed in Canada as well as on the New York Stock Exchange.

我们最出名的是实物信托。

We're most well known for our physical trusts.

所以我们主要专注于金属和矿业。

So we primarily focus on metals and mining.

我们的实物信托涵盖贵金属、实物铜、实物铀等，而且我们的ETF产品线也在不断扩展，目前在美国有13只基金，在欧洲还有5只不同用途的基金。

Our physical trusts will cover things like precious metals, physical copper, physical uranium, and we have a growing ETF lineup now that's 13 US funds and five different funds in usage wrappers in Europe.

总的来说，我们的资产规模大约在650亿美元，最近市场下跌后可能稍微低一些。

And all told, we're about $65,000,000,000 in assets, maybe a little lower than that with the recent market sell off.

好的。

Okay.

有意思。

Interesting.

那你们是加拿大公司吗？

So you guys are Canadian based?

是的，我们是加拿大公司。

We're Canadian based.

我们在美国各地都有办公室，包括康涅狄格州和纽约，我就在纽约的办公室工作。

We have offices throughout The United States, including Connecticut and New York, which is the office I work out of.

明白了。

Got it.

好的。

All right.

那，谢谢你。

So, thank you for that.

我，我碰巧在准备节目的时候听了一本有声书，算是巧合吧。

I, I coincidentally listened to an audiobook accidentally in preparation for the show.

是听众推荐的。

A listener recommended it.

这本书叫《材料世界》。

The book is called Material World.

你熟悉这本书吗？

You familiar with this one?

我听说过这本书。

I've heard of it.

是的。

Yeah.

但我自己还没读过。

I haven't read it myself.

这本书叫《塑造现代文明的六种原材料》，作者是埃德·康威。

It's The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization by a guy named Ed Conway.

里面讲的是盐、石油、锂、铜和铁。

And in there is salt, oil, lithium, copper, and iron.

这个周末我读完这本书的时候，里面提到了一家公司叫阿尔伯马尔，我知道它的股票代码是ALB。

And as I was finishing the book this weekend, one of the companies I mentioned was Albermol, and I know the ticker, ALB.

说实话，史蒂夫，就你我知道，我之前完全不知道那是一只材料股。

And I got to be honest, Steve, just between you and I, I had no idea that was even a material stock.

一点都不知道。

Not a clue.

如果你看过这只股票，我好像从来没交易过。

If you've seen the stock, I don't think I ever traded it.

完全没概念。

Had no idea.

所以不用说，物质世界变得越来越重要了，不管这是不是一种悖论，我们正在建设数字世界。

So needless to say, the material world is becoming more important, not unless it's a paradox or not, as we build out the digital world.

就像那些为这一切提供动力的材料越来越重要，投资者也有机会通过Sprott关键材料ETF来参与其中。

Like the materials that are helping to power all of this are increasingly important and investors have the opportunity to get access to it through the Sprott Critical Materials ETF.

你想传递什么？

What are you trying to deliver?

那个基金的代码，顺便问一下代码是什么？

The ticker for that is, by the way what is the ticker?

S E T M。

S E T M.

你想通过这个产品给投资者带来什么呢？

What are you trying to deliver to investors through this vehicle?

是的，这个基金是我们大概三年前推出的。

Yeah, this is a fund that we've launched a little over three years ago now.

时机不错。

Good timing.

对，时机不错。

Yeah, good timing.

我们在推出新基金时，会尽量展望未来，尽可能判断哪些大宗商品具有长期潜力。

And one of the things that we try to do when we roll out new funds, as we try to look into the future and, you know, as best as we can tell, look at those different commodities that we think have long term potential.

所以主要看供需动态，以及世界的变化趋势。

So looking mainly at supply and demand dynamics and kind of how the world's changing.

我们认为SCTM正好符合这个方向。

SCTM in our view kind of fits right into that.

它让投资者接触到多达九种关键材料的矿业公司。

It provides exposure to the miners of up to nine different critical materials.

比如能源生产方面。

So think of energy generation.

你提到的是稀土公司、铀矿公司，还有用于电力传输的银矿公司，那就会包括铜矿公司。

You're talking rare earths companies, uranium miners, silver miners on transmission of energy that would be copper miners.

另外，还有开采各种电池金属的矿商，比如锂、镍、钴、石墨、锰。

And then also, miners of different battery metals like lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, manganese.

SCTM背后的整个想法是，如果你看看更广泛的投资者投资组合，大多数投资者对矿业的配置不足，而即使有矿业敞口的投资者，对很多关键材料的配置也不足。

And the whole thought behind SCTM was that if you were to look at broader investor portfolios, most investors are underweight miners and most investors that might have mining exposure are underweight a lot of these critical materials.

所以SCTM的设计初衷就是做一个纯矿业ETF，用一个代码就能提供一篮子关键材料的敞口，投资者不必去挑某一种金属。

So SCTM was designed to be a pure play ETF that in one ticker provides exposure to a basket of of critical materials without investors having to, you know, pick one metal versus another.

问个外行问题。

Dumb question here.

你们是怎么定义关键材料这个概念的？

How do you define the idea of critical materials?

史蒂夫，这个问题我来回答。

Steve, I'll take this one.

我刚听完那本有声书，就像我刚才提到的。

I just finished the audiobook as I mentioned.

迈克尔是这方面的专家。

Michael's an expert.

关键材料，关键矿产，意思差不多。

Critical materials, critical minerals, similar things.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们的起点是，如果你看看大多数国家现在都有一份关键材料清单。

So where we start is if you look at most countries now have a list of critical materials.

美国地质调查局负责维护美国的名单。

The US Geological Survey in The United States maintains ours.

欧洲和加拿大也都有他们自己的名单。

Europe, Canada, they all have their own.

基本上，这些名单涵盖的范围比我们关注的九种金属要广得多，但我们主要关注的是那些具备投资价值的金属。

And basically, what you're looking for in those those lists are much broader than the nine different metals that we're focusing on, But we're looking for those metals that are one investable from an investment standpoint.

你知道的，我们并不打算去接触某些金属中只有一两家矿企的情况。

You know, we're not looking to get exposure to maybe there's one or two minors, to a certain metal.

但另一个方面是，这些材料必须对国防、国家安全或经济安全有重大意义，同时还要面临供应中断的风险。

But, the other aspect of that is they have to be significant from a defense or national security or economic security standpoint, but at the same time, subject to supply disruptions.

所以这基本上就是关键材料的定义基础，我们也是基于这个标准选出了那九种金属。

And so that's really what kind of the baseline definition is for critical material, and that's how we landed on the nine that we have.

我要问一个很长的问题，先提前说声抱歉。

I'm going to ask a long winded question, so forgive me in advance.

现在算力很短缺。

There is a shortage of compute.

我们一直听到的都是这个。

That's all we keep hearing about.

既然这些是关键材料，我猜需求肯定比供应大。

And given that these are critical materials, I'm guessing that there is more demand than supply.

所以我的问题是，底层有商品本身，但最终我们投资的大部分其实是股票。

So my question for you is, there's the underlying commodity, but ultimately a lot of these things that we're investing in are equities.

而矿业公司历来有繁荣与萧条交替的历史，而且管理层往往很糟糕。

And miners in particular have a long history of booms and busts and terrible management.

那么这些公司有没有从过去的错误中吸取教训呢？

So have these companies learned from the mistakes of the past?

比如说，管理层是如何为股东创造回报的？

Like, how is management delivering returns to shareholders?

因为这可能会变成那种情况，天哪，这太有道理了。

Because this could be the type of thing where, oh my god, this makes so much sense.

就是说，这个投资逻辑听起来很合理，但当你去看实际业绩时，却发现并不是你期望的那样。

Like, the thesis makes a lot of sense, but then you go and look at, the actual results and it's not what you were hoping for.

那么管理层，这些公司到底是怎么为股东创造价值的呢？

So how do how does management how do these companies deliver for their shareholders?

对。

Yeah.

不。

No.

问得好。

Great question.

通常我们被问到这个问题时，都是关于金矿公司的。

And and usually when we get that question, it's it's in response to gold miners.

对吧？

Right?

所以如果你去看，你知道，我们拿这个当例子，因为我觉得如果有人持有矿业股票，那很可能就是金矿公司。

So if you were to look at you know, we use that kind of as example because I think that's one that if somebody owns mining stocks, it's probably gold miners.

二月初的时候，黄金表现不错。

Early February, gold was doing well.

那时候我们看到很多矿业公司都在积极加杠杆，想利用金价上涨的机会。

At that point, we saw a lot of the miners were, you know, really looking to leverage up and and take advantage of higher gold prices.

但当金价回落时，矿业公司从那个角度来看，处境就不那么好了。

And and when gold prices came down, you know, miners weren't necessarily in a a very strong position from that standpoint.

回顾2010年代，整个矿业基本上经历了投资荒废的十年。

When you go through the twenty tens, there was, you know, in mining in general, about a lost decade of investment.

所以这确实影响了关键材料，我们可以详细聊聊。

So that really impacted critical materials, and we can unpack that.

但这次我们看到的，如果还是拿金矿开采商来类比的话，开采商们这次的财务管理方式普遍要谨慎得多。

But what we've seen this go around, if we're sticking with that gold miners analogy is that miners have generally this go around been much more prudent in the way that they're managing their their books.

他们没有过度杠杆化。

They're not overleveraging.

他们不再不断寻找新的收购目标。

They're not constantly looking for for new acquisitions.

他们在这方面一直非常克制。

They've been much more reserved in that standpoint.

我觉得他们从十五二十年前就明白了，投资者看重的是这一点。

I think they got the message, you know, from fifteen or twenty years ago that that's something that investors value.

那么，关键材料的机会有多大程度上只是对新兴技术的押注？

So how much of the critical material play is just a play on new technologies?

因为我觉得这是个很有意思的思考角度，就是对新技术、电池、能源和数据中心的需求实在太大了。

Because I think that that's an interesting way to think about this is that there's just so much more demand for new technologies, batteries, energy, data centers.

其中有多少符合你的投资逻辑？

How much of that fits into your thesis?

这确实越来越重要了，但你看我们刚提到的那些金属，比如铜，我们开采了几千年了，大约每二十五年，对铜的需求就会翻一番。

It's an increasingly important part, but if you look at, you know, those metals that we talked about, copper for example, you know, we've been mining that for thousands of years and and roughly about every twenty five years, the demand for copper doubles.

对吧？

Right?

而且通常，我们会在全球经济的结构性转变中看到这种情况。

And usually, we see that with structural shifts in the global economy.

比如中国进入工业化时代的时候，我们就看到了这种趋势。

We saw that as, you know, China was moving into their industrial age.

现在呢，随着技术和能源转型的主题，我们又看到了下一波增长。

We now see that, you know, kind of that next leg up with the technology and energy transition theme.

但实际上，很多对这些关键材料需求增长的根源，是对电力需求的增加。

But what's really at the root of a lot of the growing demand for these critical materials is increases in electricity demand.

这种增长可能来自技术领域，这也是我们在西方国家通常看到的。

So that can come through technology, which is typically what we're seeing in Western countries.

而对于更多发展中国家来说，这主要是他们生活水平的提高，那些我们在美国认为理所当然的东西。

If you're looking at more developing type countries, it's really increases in their standard of living, you know, things that we take for granted here in The United States.

但你知道，比如印度就是个很好的例子，空调在那里并不是很普及。

But you know, India, for example, is a great one where, you know, air conditioning is not very, you know, widely available.

这实际上对铜的需求是个很大的推动因素。

That's actually a significant demand driver for copper.

但当你把目光放远一点，看看战略用途，比如国防、人工智能、能源转型这些。

But when you start to focus out a little more, if you look at the strategic uses, those will be things like defense, artificial intelligence, energy transition.

这三样对很多金属来说变得越来越重要。

Those three are becoming increasingly important across a lot of these metals.

地缘政治在这个问题里扮演什么角色？

Where does geopolitics fit into the equation?

因为现在公司之间越来越不像以前那样友好相处了。

Because increasingly, companies are playing less nice nice with each other than maybe they have historically.

现在是什么情况，投资者应该注意哪些风险？

What's what's going on there, and what are some of the risks that investors should know about?

对，我觉得最大的问题就是中国在这些关键材料领域的位置。

Yeah, I'd say the biggest for that would be, you know, how China fits into the the landscape for a lot of these critical materials.

他们远远拥有最大的铜冶炼产能，就是精炼铜的那个环节。

They by far have the largest smelting capacity for copper, so that's refining the copper.

所以很多铜，如果是在中国以外开采的，都会运到中国来精炼，然后再从那里出口出去。

So a lot of it, if it's mined outside China, finds its way to China in order to get refined and then export it out from there.

锂的情况也类似，他们就算不自己开采锂矿，也掌握了很多加工环节。

Similar thing for lithium, they they have a lot of the, you know, if they're not extracting the lithium themselves, a lot of the processing.

在稀土方面我们也能看到，他们控制了大约70%的稀土开采，以及超过90%的冶炼和磁材产能。

We see it in rare earths where they control about 70% of rare earths mining, over 90% of the refining and magnet capacity.

所以地缘政治变得越来越关键，因为在过去二十来年里，我们多次看到中国在利用他们的领导地位来进行武器化操作。

So geopolitics is becoming increasingly important because what we've seen several times now over the last, you know, twenty years or so is that China's increasingly weaponizing their leadership position.

就在六月底，他们对10家美国公司实施了稀土出口限制。

Just at the end of June, they put export restrictions on rare earths to 10 US companies.

然后到七月底，又对部分欧洲公司做了同样的操作，涉及14家公司的稀土出口限制。

And then same thing with some European companies here at the end of July, they they hit 14 companies there with export restrictions that include rare earths.

所以地缘政治是一个不断演变的局势，而且也符合我们远离中国配置的投资思路，因为我们预期大量的投资会发生在美国及其盟友国家，现在这个趋势已经开始显现了。

So geopolitics is is an evolving story and and along the premise of our tilt away from China because we expect that a lot of the investment will happen, you know, in United States and its allied countries, and we're starting to see that play out now.

当你想基于关键材料需求增长这个主题来构建投资组合时，你是在说，嘿，我们就是做个大盘型的投资，跟着浪潮走，分散下注，尽量每个领域都沾一点？

When you're trying to build a portfolio out of this thesis of growing demand for these critical materials, is it just are you saying, hey, we're gonna this is kind of a beta play and we're just gonna ride the wave and we're gonna kind of spread our bets and try to hit each of these in the way we can?

还是说更主动一些，不不，我们要集中在那些最能从中受益的特定类型的公司？

Or is it is it more active that, no, no, we're gonna concentrate on specific types of companies that are gonna benefit the most from it?

比如，从投资角度来说，你是怎么操作的呢？

Like, how do you how do you try to play this from an investment angle?

对。

Yeah.

所以SETM是被动策略，但和其他的被动策略不一样，那些策略中，资产管理公司可以去找指数提供商，说，嘿，我们喜欢你的策略，我们要在上面发个基金，或者让指数提供商为他们专门做个指数。

So SETM is a a passive strategy unlike what you might see with other passive strategies where, you know, an asset manager can go to an index provider and say, hey, we like your strategy, we're gonna launch a fund on it, or ask for an index provider to go create an index for them.

我们其实从最开始就和纳斯达克紧密合作，在创建这些指数方面。

We've actually been very much involved from the onset with NASDAQ in creating these indexes.

凭借我们在金属和采矿业方面的背景，这个领域我们有独特的专长。

So with our background in metals and mining, this is an area where we have unique expertise.

这样，这只基金每年两次进行再平衡或重建。

And so each twice a year, this fund is going to go through a rebalance or reconstitution.

我们实际上会通过我们专有的评分系统来筛选，然后确定符合条件的公司名单，再交给纳斯达克，由他们根据指数规则来编制指数。

And we actually go through a process here with our proprietary scoring system, and we create the eligible universe that gets sent to NASDAQ, who then creates the index based on the rules of the index.

但这确实是一个被动策略。

But it is a passive strategy.

SCTM的目标是提供更广泛的敞口，这样投资者就不需要自己去判断，比如铜的表现会比铀好，我们提供一个代码就能解决这个问题。

The goal of SCTM is to provide that broader based exposure so that investors don't have to say, you know, I expect copper to outperform uranium, for example, we'll provide that one ticker solution.

到底是什么在推动这些公司的股价？

What actually is driving the prices for these companies?

是商品价格吗？

Is it the commodity price?

还是仅仅是供需失衡的结构性问题？

Is it just the structural supply demand imbalance?

其实我也不确定这是不是结构性的。

Don't even know if it's structural.

我刚才只是随口一说。那么，这些股票跟整个股市的相关性有多高？

I guess I just made that part What what is like, how much beta is there to the overall stock market itself?

对。

Yeah.

通常来说，矿业公司的表现往往会在商品价格上涨时超过商品本身。

Typically, what you see with miners is they tend to outperform the commodity on the upside.

而在下跌时会跑输。

They'll underperform on the downside.

这是因为它们对底层金属具有运营杠杆效应。

That's because they have operational leverage to the underlying metal.

你说得对，很多金属确实存在我们认为的结构性供应短缺，要么已经处于这个阶段，要么预计将要到来。

You're correct in that, you know, a lot of these metals do have what we believe to be a structural supply deficit, either they're already in that phase or ones expected to come.

比如铜，随着电气化的持续推进，这种金属变得越来越重要。

If you look at copper, for example, you know, this is a metal that's becoming increasingly important as electrification continues.

去年，由于一些大型矿场出现市场扰动，我们陷入了供应短缺的状态。

Last year, we slipped into a a supply deficit given some market disruptions that we had at some large major mines.

我们预计今年可能会回到供过于求的局面，但长期来看，许多金属的需求增长预计将超过供应增长，以及我们满足那种供应的能力。

We're expecting this year, may we go back to a surplus, but long term, the the growth in a lot of these metals is expected to outstrip supply and our ability to meet that supply.

所以我们看到的是，来自公共和私人机构的大量投资。

So what we're seeing is a lot of investment coming from public and private institutions.

比如美国政府、欧洲各国政府，还有硅谷，都在大力投资这些主题，比如铀矿开采和核能。

So US government, European governments, and then as well as Silicon Valley is investing quite heavily in a lot of these themes, uranium mining and and nuclear energy, for example.

这些投资又带动了更多投资进来，我们看到大宗商品价格在上涨，而且高位持续的时间更长了。

So that investment's crowding in additional investment, and we're seeing higher commodity prices that are staying higher longer.

铜价现在仍然接近历史最高点。

Copper prices are still near all time highs.

与此同时，我们看到很多矿业公司的资产负债表和财务状况都在改善。

And with that, we're seeing improvement in balance sheets and and financial condition for a lot of these miners.

而真正推动他们表现的，除了过去四五个月市场波动带来的那些噪音之外，就是这些因素。

And that's what's really been driving their performance outside of some of the the noise that we've had here with the, you know, the the larger market volatility we've seen over the last, you know, four or five months.

从上市公司的角度来看，这个领域的可投资范围是什么样的？

In terms of public companies, what does the investable universe look like for this?

股票选择多吗？

Is there a huge universe of stocks?

这是一只全球性基金吗？

Is this a global fund?

比如说，你会去哪里找标的来填充这个投资组合？

Like, where do you go to find the areas to fill this portfolio?

对。

Yeah.

这是个好问题。

It's a great question.

这个领域正在增长。

It's a growing area.

你看一下这个基金里的标的数量，在录制这会儿大概是157个。

When you look at the number of names in this fund, it's about a 157 as as as we're taping this today.

从地域分布来看，范围相当广。

It's it's pretty broad geographically.

比如，加拿大大概会占到投资组合的35%。

We have you know, Canada's gonna make up about 35% of the portfolio.

澳大利亚大概占21%，然后美国大约占20%。

Australia's in there about 21%, and then we see The United States about 20%.

所以这三个国家占比很重。

So very heavy in those three.

除此之外，还有大概十几个国家，它们的矿业股票跟这些关键材料有关。

But outside of that, there's, you know, another, you know, dozen to 15 named countries or so that have mining equities related to these critical materials.

大盘股大概占52%，中盘股大约35%，剩下的就是小盘股了。

It's gonna be about 52% large cap and then there are about 35% mid cap and the rest small cap.

不过这个指数的覆盖范围在不断扩大，而且自我们推出这只基金以来，我们也看到它有了显著的增长。

But it's a growing index universe and one that we've seen growing considerably since we've launched this fund.

现在感觉每样东西都在押注AI，要么直接受益，要么在它不受青睐时获利。

It seems like everything these days is a bet on AI one way or the other.

你要么是杠杆化地参与，要么是在它失宠的时候从中获益。

You're either levered to it or you benefit when it's out of favor.

那这只基金在这个逻辑里扮演什么角色呢？

Where does this fit into the equation?

我猜更多是前者而不是后者。

I would assume it's more the former than the latter.

是的，我们看到投资者实际上把关键材料视为一种非科技的方式来投资人工智能，对吧？

Yeah, so we see investors that are actually looking to critical materials as a way to a non technology way to play artificial intelligence, right?

所以当你看到数据中心以及为它们提供动力的一切时，不仅需要能源，对吧？

So when you look at the data centers and everything that powers these, not only do you need energy, right?

你可以看看稀土，它们用于风力涡轮机，银用于太阳能电池板，铀显然用于核能。

So you can look at things like rare earths, which are used in wind turbines, silver is used in solar panels, uranium obviously used in nuclear energy.

很多人工智能公司特别希望用清洁能源来为他们的数据中心供电。

A lot of these AI companies are looking specifically to power their data centers using clean energy sources.

所以这三样东西特别受关注，尤其是核能。

So those three in particular get a lot of interest, particularly nuclear energy.

而且当你考虑如何建造这些数据中心时，你需要用到像银、铜这样的材料。

And then also when you look at how you build these data centers, you need things in there like, you know, like silver, like copper.

我们越来越多地看到很多数据中心用电池作为备用电源。

Increasingly, we're seeing a lot of these data centers being backed up by battery power.

所以电池金属在这方面也占了很大一部分。

So the battery metals also play a huge component into that.

越来越多的投资者在寻找大型科技股之外的方式来投资人工智能，SETM 也因此受到了关注。

Increasingly, investors are looking at ways outside of the large tech names to play artificial intelligence, and and SETM's kind of caught on from that.

你能谈谈随着电动汽车成为道路上汽车的重要组成部分，电池材料的增长情况吗？

Can you talk about the growth of the materials powering batteries with electric vehicles becoming such a huge portion of cars on the road.

Ben 对这个故事不太熟悉，所以请为了他讲一下。

Ben's not super familiar with the story, so just for his benefit, please.

嘿。

Hey.

我开的是混合动力车。

I drive a hybrid.

是电动车。

It's an EV.

你提到混合动力车，真巧。

Funny you mentioned hybrid.

你知道，如果我们是在三年前聊这个话题，当时对电动车销量的预测可以说是相当惊人的。

That's you know, if we were having this conversation, you know, three years ago, I I think the kind of the estimates on what we would see from, you know, EV sales were quite astronomical.

我记得有些预测说，到本十年末，路上会有大约三亿五千万辆电动车。

I think some estimates added about three fifty million EVs on the road by the end of this decade.

虽然现在还没达到那个水平，但在美国，混合动力车，在我们看来，很可能是下一个阶段，那时候你就需要开始看到更多的关键材料，比如铜，还有那些汽油车没有的电池金属。

Not at that level, but in The United States, the hybrid, you know, in our view is probably going to be that next step where you do need to start seeing more critical materials like copper, the battery metals that you don't see from the gas powered cars.

但当你开始看锂的需求，特别是来自电动车和电网储能系统，一直到2035年左右。

But when you start looking at, you know, demand for, you know, lithium specifically, just from EVs and, you know, grid storage systems out through about 2035 or so.

预计会占到锂总需求的91%。

It's expected to account for about 91 of overall lithium demand.

所以这确实在推动我们看到的锂市场，尤其是现在出现了多种电池化学技术。

So it's really driving what we're seeing in lithium and, you know, in particular, as we're seeing multiple battery chemistry emerge here.

我前几天看到一个数据。

I saw a stat the other day.

好像是RAV4的。

I think it was the RAV4.

不是个数据。

Not a stat.

我记得RAV4正在取消纯汽油版。

I think the RAV4 is eliminating their gas only options.

现在不是纯电就是混动。

It's either purely electric or a hybrid.

你们俩看到这个消息了吗？

Either of you guys see that?

是的，我们在欧洲一些地方也看到了，那边电动汽车销量差不多占新车销售的百分之百。但从地理和人口分布来看，在美国不太现实，因为电动车续航里程有限，而且我们这边基本上是开车文化，不像欧洲那么城市化。

Yeah, we're seeing that in some places in Europe, right, where, you know, EV sales are pretty much 100% of new car sales, right, you know, geographically and from a population disbursement in The United States that doesn't seem as realistic at this point given the range of, you know, how far an EV can drive, and we're pretty much a driving culture relative to more urban cultures like we see in Europe.

确实让一切都安静了不少。

Makes everything quieter, that's for sure.

我很好奇关键材料的价格和上市公司股价之间的关联。

I'm curious the the correlation between the prices of the underlying critical materials and then the public companies themselves.

所以我的问题就是，是不是必须得看到这些大宗商品价格持续上涨，这些公司才能表现好？还是说有其他因素，比如价格就算只是稳定在当前水平，这些公司也能活得不错。

So I guess my question is just do you need to have the keep having these the the prices for the underlying commodities keep pumping higher to have these public companies work out well, or is there another layer to it in terms of no, even if the prices just kind of stabilize where there are, these companies are gonna be fine.

那你觉得大宗商品的价格和这些上市公司之间的关系是怎样的？

Like, how do think about the relationship between the prices of the commodities and the public companies themselves?

确实，我们通常会看到它们之间存在一定的关联。

There's definitely, you know, a correlation that we tend to see.

不过每种商品的情况不太一样，但通常来说，价格上涨时会有杠杆效应，下跌时也同样如此。

It tends to be different from each commodity, but typically we get that leverage on the upside and and leverage on the downside as well that comes with it.

但你要知道，实物商品市场和股票市场，其实是两码事。

But, you know, one one thing about the market and and physical commodity market and and the stock market, there's two two different things at play.

对吧？

Right?

所以如果你看现货价格，那反映的是当下的情况。

So if you're looking at spot prices, that's kind of looking at the here and now.

而当你去看股市里的矿业公司时，理想情况下，它们还会把未来的预期也考虑进去，对吧？

Whereas when you start looking at the the miners in the equity market, you know, ideally, you know, it's going to be priced in future expectations as well, right?

这在现货市场里不一定能看到。

Something that we don't necessarily see in the the spot market.

另一个方面是，很多这些不同金属的现货市场流动性不如矿业公司股票那么高。

The the other aspect is that the spot market for a lot of these different metals is, you know, not as liquid as the as, you know, what you see out of the miners.

所以很难说，比如铀价，大概在每磅85到86美元左右。

So it can be difficult necessarily to say, you know, uranium prices, for example, have been around the 85 to $86 a pound.

今年上涨了大约6%。

They're up about 6% on the year.

但铀矿公司的股票今年反而小幅下跌了。

Uranium miners have have sold off just a little bit, on the year.

部分原因是，我们看到市场整体避险情绪升温，加上市场波动，这往往对矿业公司的影响比对其基础商品更大，而基础商品当时仍然有需求，还在被使用。

Some of that is because, you know, what we're seeing from this general risk off sense given market volatility, that can tend to impact, you know, miners more than it may the underlying commodity, which is, you know, and still still being used in in in demand at that moment.

所以它们之间不是完美的一比一或二比一的对应关系，但商品的整体走势确实会影响矿业公司及其未来前景。

So it's it's not a perfect one for one correlation or two for one correlation, but the underlying trajectory of the commodity does impact the miners and future outlook there.

好的。

All right.

杰瑞·宋飞的声音。

Jerry Seinfeld voice.

铀矿股票到底是怎么回事？

What's the deal with uranium equities?

所以它是仅次于铜的第二大市场。

So it's the second biggest behind copper.

我们刚才在聊锂和它在电池方面的应用。

So we were just talking about lithium and what it's doing with batteries.

铀的关键作用是什么？

What is uranium's critical?

随便你怎么接这句话。

However you finish that sentence.

对。

Yeah.

我是《宋飞正传》的超级粉丝，能理解你刚才的引用。

I'm a huge Seinfeld fan, I can appreciate the reference there.

说到锂，或者更准确地说铀，事情是这样的：大概五六年前，很多国家对核能的态度开始转变，不再像以前那样因为环保或行业风险而反对核能。

The deal with lithium or with uranium rather is that, you know, it started out, I'd say, five, six years ago, where a lot of the focus on nuclear energy started to shift away from countries being opposed to nuclear energy, but it's for perceived environmental reasons or risk associated with the sector.

我们确实看到很多国家和甚至曾经反对核能的环保组织，态度来了个180度大转弯。

We've really seen a lot of countries and even environmental groups that were once opposed to nuclear energy really pivot 180 degrees.

我们看到一些原本完全弃核、正在退役核电站的国家，现在又开始考虑重启了。

We see countries that were moving away completely decommissioning their plants are now looking to start them up again.

我们看到欧盟的一位领导人公开表示，放弃核能是个战略错误。

We saw one of the leaders in the European Union come out and say that moving away from nuclear energy was just a strategic error.

这主要是因为中东局势以及霍尔木兹海峡关闭对化石燃料市场，尤其是原油市场造成的影响。

That came in light of what we've seen happening in The Middle East and the the Strait Of Hormuz closure and the impact that's having on fossil fuel markets, particularly crude oil.

核能的好处在于，你可以储备核燃料。

What nuclear energy gives you is the ability to, you know, stockpile the material.

一般来说，一旦给反应堆加注燃料，它可以运行大约十八个月甚至更久。

Typically, you know, once you've once you feed a reactor, it can be up and running for eighteen months or so or even longer than that.

所以你可以储备这些燃料，风险很小，而且能提供稳定的基荷电力，不像太阳能和风能那样受天气影响。

And so you can stockpile that material, very little downside, reliable base load power, unlike things like solar and wind, are going to be impacted by environmental conditions.

所以，除了清洁能源的优势，能源安全也是推动核能发展和普及的重要因素。

So energy security, in addition to the clean energy aspect of nuclear energy has really pushed, you know, the move for more nuclear energy and the prevalence there.

而且硅谷那边，你知道，AI数据中心直接投钱到下一代技术里，核反应堆真的在推动这个领域的需求和投资。

And Silicon Valley, you know, with the AI data centers investing directly in next generation technology, nuclear reactors are really driving demand and investment in the space.

这些需求有多少是来自美国以外的？

How much of this demand is coming from outside of The United States?

因为你提到这是一个全球基金，而且很大一部分不在美国。

Because you mentioned that this is this is a global fund and not a big part of it is in The US.

电动车市场确实，在中国和欧洲比在美国大得多。

The EV market is right, a lot bigger in China and a lot bigger in Europe than it is here.

这个基金更多是全球性的故事吗？

Is is this more of a global story for this fund?

我觉得这是全球经济结构转型的全球性变化。

It's a global shift, I think, in the way that the economy is being structured.

比如，每年彭博新能源财经都会发布一份能源转型报告。

So if you were to look at, you know, the Bloomberg New Energy Finance every year, they put out a report on the energy transition, for example.

去年，全球在能源转型上的支出估计大约是2.3万亿美元。

And last year, the estimates on spending just on the energy transition was about $2,300,000,000,000 globally.

通常我们看到的情况是，中国在核能、矿产开采能力以及冶炼能力这些领域都处于领先地位。

Typically what we see is China is the leader in this space, whether it's nuclear energy or building out mining capacity or smelting capacity.

他们这么做不一定是为了像欧洲国家那样追求清洁能源的目的，但这确实是一个全球性的话题，因为我们开始看到地缘政治风险的影响，比如从乌克兰冲突开始。

They're not necessarily doing that for clean energy purposes like maybe European countries are, but it is very much a global story as we're starting to see these geopolitical risk, you know, starting with Ukraine.

现在我们也看到了美国与伊朗之间的冲突。

Now we see it with The US Iran conflict.

所有这些情况都让我们更加意识到能源安全的重要性。

All of this is putting a magnifying glass on the need to, you know, have energy security.

所以这确实是一个全球性的故事。

So it really is a global story.

而且，你知道的，在大宗商品投资方面，我们无法决定金属矿藏的具体位置。

And, you know, the one thing about commodity investing is we don't get to pick where the metals are located.

正因如此，我们看到许多新兴经济体正从外国投资中受益。

And because of that, we see a lot of emerging economies are benefiting from foreign investment.

这种情况在亚洲的部分地区以及整个非洲都能看到。

We see that in parts of Asia and throughout Africa as well.

我觉得当时公众对核能是有很大呼声的。

I feel like there was a public groundswell for nuclear.

它开始重新受到关注，大家都在讨论应该怎么建设。

It was starting to come back, talks about how we should build.

然后那部《切尔诺贝利》迷你剧，我觉得一下子就把这股势头给掐灭了。

And then the Chernobyl miniseries, I feel like just stopped it dead in its tracks.

大家都看了那部剧，然后说，哎，等等。

Everybody saw that show and said, Hey, wait a minute.

对，我觉得可能那些看了迷你剧的人会有那种感觉。

Yeah, I think maybe from people who are watching the miniseries might have had that feeling.

但你看，实际上在美国，基本上每一个要么正在退役、要么已经关闭的核反应堆，比如三哩岛，现在都在重新开放的路上。

But if you look, you know, practically in The United States, basically, every nuclear reactor that was either being decommissioned or was already shut down, like 3 Mile Island, for example, all of those are now on a path to being reopened.

我们看到全球范围内，很多大型反应堆的寿命都在延长。

We're seeing life extensions across the globe being increased to a lot of the large reactors.

而且我觉得有一件事，还没有真正影响到市场，但确实和铀这个主题密切相关，那就是小型模块化反应堆。

And I think one of the things that, you know, really hasn't hit the market yet and it really figures into the uranium theme is small modular reactors.

这些反应堆的尺寸要小得多。

These are much smaller in size.

你可以把它们想象成类似乐高积木那样的核反应堆。

Think of them almost as like Legos preferred nuclear reactors.

它们可以在工厂预制，占地面积小得多，然后运到现场，直接接入现有的电网设施。

You can build them off-site, a much smaller footprint, bring them on, plug them into the existing grid infrastructure.

据估计，未来四五年左右，我们就会开始看到这些反应堆商业化运行。

Estimates are in the next four to five years or so, we'll really start to see these roll up commercial basis.

但正是在这个领域，我们看到美国政府、国防部和硅谷在小型模块化反应堆技术上投入了大量资金。

But that's where we're seeing a lot of the investment happen from US government, Department of War, Silicon Valley in the SMR technology.

你觉得未来几年技术会如何改变这个领域？

How much do you think about how technology changes this field in the coming years?

我不知道三四十年前有没有人预料到美国会变成这样一个能源依赖国，但技术已经发展到我们可以开采更多能源的地步。那么，考虑到未来技术可能带来的效率提升的不确定性，你如何构建需求预测呢？

I don't know if anyone thirty or forty years ago was assuming that The US would be like this energy dependent nation or something, but technology's got to the point where we could extract more and so how do you try to build out like demand forecasts with the uncertainty of who knows how technology is gonna make us more efficient in the years ahead?

是的，这是个好问题。

Yeah, it's a great question.