畅聊你的书：加密货币最新动态是什么？

今天由Grayscale赞助的动物精神谈话为您带来。

Today's animal spirits talk your book is brought to you by Grayscale.

前往grayscale.com了解他们全套的加密产品和研究。

Go to grayscale.com to learn more about their whole suite of crypto products and research.

更多信息请访问grayscale.com。

That's grayscale.com to learn more.

欢迎收听《动物精神》，一档关于市场、生活与投资的节目。

Welcome to animal spirits, a show about markets, life, and investing.

请跟随迈克尔·巴特尼克和本·卡尔森，了解他们正在阅读、写作和观看的内容。

Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching.

迈克尔和本表达的所有观点均为他们个人意见，不代表Ritholtz财富管理公司的立场。

All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

本播客仅作信息参考，不应作为任何投资决策的依据。

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.

Ritholtz财富管理公司的客户可能持有本播客中讨论的证券。

Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

欢迎收听迈克尔和本的《动物精神》。

Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.

今天是《畅谈书籍》环节。

Today's Talk Your Book.

我们请回了克里斯塔·林奇。

We brought back Krista Lynch.

她是Grayscale的高级副总裁，负责ETF资本市场。

She's the senior vice president, ETF capital markets at Grayscale.

现在谈加密货币真是个不错的时机。

Pretty good time to talk about crypto.

我其实更喜欢在市场平静时和加密货币领域的人交谈，而不是在市场极度火热的时候。

I I actually like talking to crypto people more when things are in a lull than when they're really super exciting.

世界上还有比加密货币更像‘来过又走’的事情吗？

Is there any more we're so back, it's so over thing in the world than crypto?

我不是说市场已经全面回暖了，但过去一个月以太坊已经上涨了不少，尽管显然仍远低于其历史高点。

Because it's I'm not saying that we're so back, but ETH is up a decent amount in the last month, know, despite obviously still well, well, well off its highs.

但是

But

面对地缘政治威胁，加密货币的表现相当稳健。

In the face of geopolitical threats, right, crypto is hanging in there pretty good.

那这个呢？

How about this?

我得问问查德该怎么形容这个。

I have to ask Chad how to describe this.

什么是

What is

你看，你已经开始把思考外包给人工智能了。

See, you're already outsourcing your thinking to AI.

事情就是这样发生的。

This is how it happens.

我正在节目中实时这么做。

I'm doing it live on the show.

我们开始吧。

Here we go.

Hyperliquid 是一个去中心化的加密货币衍生品交易所。

Hyperliquid is a decentralized crypto derivatives exchange.

那这到底是什么意思？

So what does that even mean?

我为什么要谈论它？

Why am I talking about it?

这里有一个标普500的代理产品，或者说一种衍生品。

There is a proxy, a derivative, if you will, for the S and P 500.

所以上周末，我一直在查看这种基于区块链技术的价格。

So over the weekend, I was checking the prices on this blockchain based technology.

啊，这就像期货的期货。

Ah, it's like the futures of the futures.

就是这样。

There you go.

就这样吗？

Is that it?

这太厉害了。

That's just sick.

我的意思是，你不能让它就这样持续

I mean, you can't let it go for like

四十八小时？

Forty eight hours?

是的。

Yeah.

拜托。

Come on.

我们提了一堆我们其实并不太了解的东西。

We asked for a bunch of stuff that, you know, we don't we we don't know very well.

比如，加密货币立法意味着什么？

Like, what is the crypto legislation gonna mean?

稳定币现在是怎么回事？

What is what's going on with stablecoins?

所有这些正在积累的小事情。

All these little things that, like, are building.

这是最重要的收获。

Here here's here's the biggest takeaway.

我们讨论过下一个催化剂是什么，因为明显的催化剂现在已经不在考虑范围内了。

We spoke about what's the next catalyst because the obvious catalysts are now off the list.

对吧？

Right?

机构采用、ETF资金流动。

Institutional adoption, ETF flows.

不会再有另一个新的ETF了。

There's not gonna be another another ETF, a new ETF.

我的意思是，还会出现更多ETF，但不是你懂的那种意思。

I mean, there will be more ETFs, but not not in the sense of you know what I mean.

你明白我的意思。

You know what I mean.

如果下一个催化剂只是价格更高呢？

What if the next catalyst is just priced higher?

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，这其实就够了。

I mean, that's that's all it takes.

正如我一开始说的，这本质上是一个由叙事驱动的资产类别，谁在乎呢？

This is such like I said at the outset, this is such a narrative based asset class that kinda who cares?

下一个催化剂是什么？

What's the next catalyst?

下一个催化剂就是更高的价格。

The next catalyst is higher prices.

所以我之前说，我很惊讶比特币并没有真正成为数字黄金。

So I said that I'm surprised Bitcoin didn't really take the throne as the digital gold.

但我的意思是，如果你从当前水平来看，比特币处于低迷状态，而黄金在过去五年里疯狂上涨，难道你不觉得未来五年比特币会超越黄金吗？

But, I mean, if you were going from current levels, Bitcoin being depressed, Bitcoin being depressed, gold going crazy for the past five years or whatever, wouldn't you think the next five years would be more Bitcoin over gold?

这难道不合理吗？

Wouldn't that make sense?

我不知道。

I don't know.

也许吧。

Perhaps.

有可能发生。

Could happen.

好吧。

Alright.

不管怎样，这样的信心如何？

Anyway How's that for conviction?

是的。

Yeah.

我们得和Grayscale的克里斯塔·林奇一起做一系列关于加密货币的内容。

We gotta do a bunch of different stuff on crypto with with Krista Lynch from Grayscale.

这是我和她的对话。

So here's our talk with her.

克里斯塔，欢迎回来。

Krista, welcome back.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

最近市场上发生了好多事。

Lot happening in the markets these days.

令人难以置信的是，指数总体持平，但感觉上真的持平吗？

Unbelievably, the indexes are mostly flat, but does it feel flat?

我猜在加密货币领域感觉并不持平，因为事实确实如此。

And I'm imagining it doesn't feel flat in crypto because, well, it's not flat.

它似乎正在趋于稳定。

It does seem to be stabilizing.

我们今天是3月12日星期四录制的。

We are recording this on Thursday, March 12.

所以谁知道周五会发生什么。

So who knows what Friday brings.

但你怎么描述2026年初加密货币市场的状况？

But how would you describe the state of crypto markets in early twenty twenty six?

是的。

Yeah.

这真是一段疯狂的旅程。

What a wild ride.

这不仅发生在加密货币市场，也发生在其他市场。

It has been not only in crypto, but in other markets.

我认为，尽管当前整体市场正经历一波高度波动，但我们实际上正出人意料地看到一些稳定迹象。

I think right now, we're actually surprisingly seeing, I would say, a bit of stability despite the fact that markets are broadly having, you know, a moment of, heightened volatility.

我为什么这么说？

And why I say that?

我记得大约两周前，中东的消息刚传出来的时候。

So I remember about two weeks ago when the news in the The Middle East first broke out.

那天是星期六。

It was a Saturday.

我当时在查看比特币的价格，不断刷新，想着比特币会成为表达这场混乱的导火索，因为传统股市当时还没开盘。

I was looking at the price of Bitcoin and refreshing it thinking that Bitcoin was gonna be kind of like the lightning rod to express the fact that all this chaos is going on and traditional equity markets aren't open.

但比特币在周六和周日都只波动了2%，直到股市重新开盘。

Bitcoin actually only moved 2% both Saturday and Sunday before those equity markets were reopened.

现在我拿这个和一年前四月的一次经历做对比，当时也有类似的消息，说有导弹袭击和各种混乱发生在一个星期六。

Now I compare that to an experience I had, I think it was April a year before when there was similar news about missiles and all sorts of chaos happening on a Saturday.

我当时和一些没有手机的加密货币交易员在一起。

I was out with some crypto traders that didn't have access to their phones.

当他们一拿到手机，所有人都陷入了恐慌。

And as soon as they got them back, they were all kind of in a state of panic.

他们的自动强平订单纷纷被触发。

They were having auto liquidations go off.

比特币的价格下跌了10%。

The price of Bitcoin was down 10%.

你知道，那是一种完全不同的体验，而那仅仅是一年前的事。

You know, it was a very, very different experience, and that was just one year ago.

纸手。

Paper hands.

我说得对吧？

Am I right?

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

这在一定程度上反映了这一资产类别的成熟度，它在极短的时间内经历了多大程度的演变，但依然为投资者和交易者提供了一种在传统市场关闭时表达风险的途径。

This speaks a little bit to the maturity of the asset class, how much it has evolved in in a very short period of time, but remains a way for investors and traders to express risk even when traditional markets are closed.

周日晚上我出去吃晚饭，坐在丹·艾维斯旁边，当时原油期货开盘上涨了27%。

So I was out, to dinner on Sunday night and I was sitting next to Dan Ives and crude oil futures opened up 27%.

丹可以作证。

And Dan is my witness.

我说，比特币持平。

I said, Bitcoin is flat.

我觉得还好。

I feel okay.

所以，标普期货下跌了2%。

So, like, S and P futures were down 2%.

我是认真的，我不是在开玩笑。

And in complete earnest here, I'm like, I'm not saying this ironically.

如果比特币下跌了8%，我会更担心。

If Bitcoin was down 8%, I would have been much more worried.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

因为我喜欢这一点，所以至少对我来说，它不仅仅是我个人的，还是衡量风险偏好或缺乏风险偏好的一个有意义的指标。

Because I like that so if nothing else, it is at least for me and not only for me, a meaningful measure of risk appetite or lack thereof.

是的。

Yep.

是的。

Yep.

我认为人们现在看待比特币的方式，比过去更把它当作一种稳定的资产。

I think people are viewing Bitcoin as a more, steady asset than they did in the past.

对于新闻引发的价格剧烈上下波动，这种即时的剧烈反应变少了。

There's less of this kind of immediate whippy reaction to news that results in huge up or down spikes in price.

你还会看到，投资者群体变得更加多元和广泛，现在包括了机构投资者和散户。

And you see it also kind of a different, or broader investor base that spans institutions now as well as retail.

所以，克里斯塔，你提到一年前，人们因为杠杆过高而被彻底爆仓，对吧？

So, Krista, you mentioned the fact that, you know, a year ago, people were just getting blown out of trades, right, because they had too much leverage on.

对我来说，加密货币的一个有趣之处在于，它是一种自我强化的机制。

That to me, that's one of the interesting things about crypto is that it's like this self reinforcing mechanism.

如果你承担了太多风险，市场会帮你回调。

Like, if you take too much risk, the market kind of pulls it back for you.

嗯。

Mhmm.

但在成熟的市场中，这种情况是怎样的呢？

But how is that in in the maturing market?

比如，杠杆的使用有多少起伏变化？

Like, how much how much is there ebb and flow of the leverage being used?

因为我不确定。

Because I don't know.

在我看来，当市场表现良好时，杠杆就会大幅增加，而当市场反转时，杠杆又会迅速撤出。

It seems to me like it it it sort of when when markets are going well, then leverage really ramps up, and then when they turn around, then it just pull back out.

它真的会有这么大的起伏吗？

Is it does it ebb and flow that much?

因为我觉得股票市场是一个同步指标。

Because it seems like the stock market, it's a concurrent indicator.

对吧？

Right?

如果股票价格高，那么保证金债务就高。

If if stocks are high, then margin debt is high.

但我只是好奇加密货币领域里是怎么样的。

But I'm just curious how it works in crypto land.

是的。

Yeah.

当然，我们仍然能看到各种方式可以加杠杆，今年早些时候，DATs 曾一度成为焦点。

We do still, of course, see ways that one can leverage their position, and I think the DATs were really front and center for this for a while earlier in the year.

它们是一种很容易为加密货币敞口加杠杆的工具，今年早些时候确实遇到了一些困难。

They are a vehicle that is pretty easily able to add leverage to a crypto exposure, and they did have some struggles earlier in the year.

作为ETF从业者，这就是我喜欢现货比特币和现货以太坊的原因，因为它们很纯粹。

You know, being an ETF practitioner, that's why I love the spot Bitcoin spot Ethereum expression because it is pure.

它们没有杠杆。

It's not leveraged.

这是一种让交易者真正获得纯粹接触的方式。

It's a way for traders to really get that pure access.

但对于那些寻求杠杆等特性的投资者来说，当然仍有其他途径可以实现。

But for those who are seeking to have features like leverage, there are, of course, avenues that you can do that with still.

在我看来，今年对加密货币来说是相当艰难的一年，因为我们迎来了一届新政府，他们大力利用加密社区来争取选票和支持。

So this has been, in my estimation, a pretty tough year for crypto because we had a new administration that was all about it, leveraged the community for votes and, support.

其中一种说法是，比特币是数字黄金。

And and part of the narrative was that Bitcoin was digital gold.

我认为这并没有太大争议。

And I don't think that was that controversial.

我觉得，你知道，这本来就是个共识。

I think, like, you know, that wasn't is a thing.

然后黄金完全抢走了比特币的风头，其价格同比上涨了约80%，经历了一段惊人的上涨行情。

And then gold just took all the shine from Bitcoin, and it is up whatever what 80% year over mean, it had it went on an incredible run.

这本该是比特币大放异彩的时候。

This should have been Bitcoin's time to shine.

发生什么事了？

What happened?

该发光了。

Time to shine.

不是故意的。

No pun intended.

是的。

Yes.

你知道吗？

I you know what?

我脑子突然短路了。

My brain broke for a second.

我一直在找那句话，结果被尘埃迷了眼。

I was looking for that phrase, and I just got lost in the dust.

谢谢。

So thank you.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我一直在关注的一点是，我确实看到比特币和加密货币在价格行为和基础设施建设之间出现了一定程度的转变。

So one thing I've been tracking is I do see a shift to some extent between the Bitcoin and crypto as a price action, way to capture price action and a build of infrastructure.

我这么说是因为，目前最热门的加密货币及相关话题，实际上大多与构建金融运营的基础设施有关，无论是传统金融还是数字金融。

And why I say that is because a lot of the buzziest crypto and crypto adjacent topics right now actually have to do with building infrastructure for operating finance, whether that's traditional finance or whether that's digital finance.

如果你看看代币化这类项目，就会发现DTCC正在积极参与。

If you look at projects like tokenization, you see the DTCC leaning in.

你还会看到纳斯达克也开始加入这场讨论。

You see Nasdaq and starting to participate in the conversation.

信用卡公司。

Credit card companies.

是的。

Yes.

没错。

Exactly.

所以这些都属于加密货币相关应用，我认为目前人们对这类应用的关注度远高于对比特币价格的关注。

So these are all crypto adjacent applications, and I think that we are seeing a lot more buzz around things like that than we are for the price of Bitcoin.

当然，当价格上扬时，上述所有领域都会获得更多推动力，但即便过去一个月左右比特币价格基本停滞，关于这些加密货币相关功能和进展的讨论从未停止。

Now, of course, I think it provides more tailwinds when the price is going up for all of the above, but there's been no lack of discussion about some of these crypto adjacent features and, progress despite the fact that Bitcoin's price has really stagnated in the past month or so.

我认为人们曾经期待的一件事是，我们终于能出台一些加密货币立法，明确界定这个行业未来的发展方向。

One of the things I think that people were excited about was we're finally gonna get some crypto legislation that just lays out what, you know, what it means for the industry going forward.

你能给我们更新一下目前的情况吗？

Maybe you could give us just an update there on on where things stand.

是的。

Yeah.

因此，我们正密切关注《清晰法案》，希望它能为推进这些倡议提供明确性——当然，这不是双关语。

So we're watching closely for, the Clarity Act to provide clarity, no pun intended, for the ability to progress a lot of these initiatives.

类似于两年前比特币现货ETF获批前我们所处的境地，目前对于这些倡议的未来方向仍缺乏透明度或存在模糊性。

Similar to where we found ourselves two years ago before Bitcoin ETFs were approved, there is, I would say, lack of transparency or ambiguity about what the way forward will be for some of these initiatives.

这使得潜在的建设者和开发者感到犹豫，不敢投入大量资金开发项目，担心这些项目最终可能不被允许，或因监管环境而无法真正落地。

And that really leads potential builders and developers uncertain and on the sidelines, afraid to invest many dollars into building projects that may eventually not be permissible or just may not really take hold given the regulatory environment.

所以我认为，一旦我们在那方面取得更多进展，将会迎来下一波动力浪潮。

So I think that once we get more progress on that, it's going to be kind of the next, wave of momentum that we see.

但我们如果忽视去年夏天在监管方面取得的所有进展，那就失察了。

But I think we'd be remiss if we didn't note all the progress that we saw on the regulatory front last summer.

我们出台了ETF的通用上市标准。

We had the generic listing standards come out for ETFs.

灰度现在已有八个单一代币敞口的ETF。

Grayscale actually has eight ETFs now for single token, exposures.

上次我们讨论时，我想我们可能只有两个。

We had last time we talked, I think we had maybe two.

因此，这一领域取得了相当大的进展。

So quite a bit of progress in that arena.

现在市场上已经有了多代币产品。

We have multi token products that are now on the market.

我们已经在ETP中引入了质押功能。

We have staking inside of the ETPs.

我们有实物申赎。

We have in kind.

因此，我们确实取得了巨大进展，这主要得益于去年夏天出台的一系列监管措施。

So we really have made a ton of progress, and that was mostly via a wave of regulation that came out last summer.

所以，尽管未来还有很多值得期待的地方，我们也必须正视已经取得的进展。

So, you know, while there's a lot to look forward to, we also have to, you know, look at all the progress that we have made.

你提到了质押。

You mentioned staking.

那是什么时候通过的？或者是什么时候发生的？

That is when did that get passed, or when when did that happen?

我们在10月6日开始为我们的以太坊和Solana产品提供质押服务。

We started staking in our Ethereum and Solana products on October 6.

那正好是政府停摆期间。

So it was right around the time of the government shutdown.

我记得当时我们不得不应对一团乱麻的局面。

I remember that being kind of a quagmire that we had to navigate.

但实际操作中，这已经持续了将近六个月，我们看到了非常不错的效果。

But it has been in practice for, almost six months now, and we have seen really good results with that.

我们非常兴奋能够以ETF的形式为希望利用其以太坊和Solana头寸的投资者提供收益。

We're really excited to be able to deliver yield now in that ETF wrapper to investors that are looking to leverage their Ethereum and Solana positions.

在其他条件相同的情况下，我假设实际情况并非如此，如果你可以持有现货或质押资产，为什么不去做质押呢？

So all else equal, and I'm assuming it's not, if you could own the spot or the state, why would you not do the state?

是否存在一些我所不了解的缺点或权衡？

Is there are there drawbacks, like, in trade offs that I that I that I'm, ignorant to?

我认为通常人们会选择质押，但在实际操作中存在一些复杂性。

I think generally one would choose to stake it, but there is some hair on how you can actually go about implementing that.

比如我自己，如果我想质押我的现货以太坊，就必须选择一个验证节点。

Like myself, as an example, if I were to try to stake my spot Ethereum position, I would have to choose a validator.

我还需要让各种第三方服务提供商参与我的持仓操作。

I would have to get all of these kind of, third party service providers engaging with me in my position.

这对我来说会是一笔不小的开销。

It would be costly to me.

作为散户投资者，这会让我花很多钱。

It would as a retail investor, it would cost me a lot of money.

等到所有这些摩擦都解决后，对于以太坊2%到3%的回报率来说，可能不值得我这么做。

By the time all these frictions are sorted out, it's probably not worth my while for two to 3% return on Ethereum.

但你可以通过我们的ETH产品来实现，管理费仅为15个基点。

But you can do it through our ETH product, 15 bips management fee.

对我来说，这非常有吸引力。

And to me, that's very compelling.

所以，我个人持有现货以太坊。

So, personally, I hold spot Ethereum.

我也持有我们的现货ETH产品。

I also hold our spot ETH product.

我没有质押我的现货以太坊，但ETH产品替我做了。

I am not staking my spot Ethereum, but ETH does it for me.

不。

No.

抱歉，我刚才没表达清楚。

I'm so I'm sorry.

问题没弄明白。

Wasn't clear on the question.

比如，如果你在考虑购买这个产品，既然能获得收益，为什么还要选择不质押的版本呢？

Like, why would somebody if if if you're considering buying the product, why would you choose the not staked version if you could pick up yield?

我明白了。

I see.

是因为流动性问题吗？

Is it a liquidity thing?

是的。

Yeah.

所以我们现在需要澄清一点：我们的以太坊产品都是质押型的。

So one thing that we had to sort out now I will be clear on our Ethereum products, they are all staking.

但人们可能不愿意选择这条路，主要原因还是流动性问题。

But why one might not necessarily wanna go down that avenue, it is mostly due to liquidity.

这是我们参与的一个大型项目。

So this was a big project that we worked on.

我们实际上去了华盛顿特区的加密货币工作组，与他们讨论了我们如何决定基金中多少资金进行质押的模型。

We actually went to the crypto task force in DC and talked to them about the model under which we would determine how much of the fund to stake.

这在很大程度上取决于底层代币的流动性状况。

And that is very much, predicated on the liquidity profile of the underlying token.

当我们实施这一方案时，我认为未质押的排队时间，也就是取出资产所需的时间，大约是四十天。

So at the time that we implemented this, I think the unstaking queue, I e, the amount of time it would take to unstake the asset was about forty days.

但如果你需要为产品提供赎回服务，而通常赎回结算只需要两天，那么这里显然存在很大的时间差异。

Now if you need to be able to facilitate a redemption for the product, which typically settles in two days, that's obviously, you know, we get a lot of days of discrepancy in there.

因此，我们开发了一个模型，得到了美国证券交易委员会的审查，这也是我们如何确定所谓的流动性缓冲部分——即基金中未质押的那一部分资金——的依据。

And so we were able to develop a model that the SEC reviewed, and, that was how we came up with what we call our liquidity sleeve, which is a portion of the fund that is not staked.

在未来几个月里，我认为你会看到更多进展，会有更多方式让发行方能够以更高比例质押基金资金，这些新功能将增强人们对高比例质押的信心。

Now in the coming months, I think you're gonna continue to see more progress on additional avenues that allow issuers to stake a higher percentage of the fund using some additional features that will give more confidence having a higher percentage staked.

我们来谈谈稳定币吧，因为我觉得这是很多加密领域人士认为我们可以打入金融行业的切入点，对吧？通过稳定币。

Let's talk stablecoins because I feel like this is the one area a lot I know a lot of crypto people think, like, this this is how we could get our foothold into the finance industry, right, through through stablecoins.

那你能不能详细解释一下这是怎么运作的？

So why don't you walk through how that is?

因为对我来说，这很有趣。

Because to me, it's it's interesting.

这看起来像是加密货币中最无聊的部分之一，但它也可能彻底重塑金融体系的基础设施，我想这正是人们所期待的。

It seems like one of the most boring parts about crypto, but it also could totally reshape, like, the rails of finance, which is I think what people are looking for.

那么那里到底发生了什么？

So what exactly is happening there?

我很喜欢你用‘无聊’这个词，因为我认为大约一年前，大多数人对比特币稳定币的反应都是‘无聊透顶’。

I love that you said boring because I think maybe a year ago, most people's reaction to stablecoins is like snooze fest.

像，我为什么要关心这个？

Like, why do I care about this?

是的。

Yeah.

但现在它正以燎原之势迅速流行起来。

And now it is catching on like wildfire.

在我看来，原因在于它本质上是传统金融与数字资产之间的桥梁。

And the reason for that in my view is because it is basically the bridge between traditional finance and digital assets.

我们不断看到这两个世界正在越来越紧密地融合。

And we're continuously seeing that become more and more of a convergent, set of worlds, if you will.

所以，如果你要拥有一个代币化资产，比如以代币或数字形式包装的传统股权，你就需要能够将美元注入系统来购买该资产。

So if you're going to have a tokenized asset, I e, have a traditional equity in a tokenized or digital wrapper, you need to be able to get dollars into the system in order to purchase that asset.

稳定币本质上就是你将美元或其他法币转入这个数字世界，以及反向操作的方式。

A stablecoin is basically how you transfer your USD or any other fiat currency into this digital world and vice versa.

所以，举几个我们看到这种融合的项目例子，比如DTCC和纳斯达克正在探索如何将传统股权带入数字世界，而稳定币将是这一过程的核心。

So to name a couple projects, again, where we see this convergence, we've got the DTCC, NASDAQ, working on ways to bring traditional equities to the digital world, and stablecoins are going to be a centerpiece of that.

它们如此受欢迎的另一个原因是，它们确实具备了数字资产所固有的流动性特征。

Another reason why they're so popular is because they do provide liquidity, characteristics inherent to digital assets.

所以，24/7全天候交易、T+0结算能力——这些都是我认为在我们正在构建的这种新型金融世界中必不可少的特性和属性。

So twenty four seven trading, ability to settle, on a t zero basis, these are all characteristics and attributes that I think are going to be necessary in this kind of new finance world that we're building towards.

如今加密货币领域的整体情绪如何？

What's the sentiment like in crypto these days?

因为这很有趣，ETF推出后，新政府上台，大家都以为他们会支持加密货币，于是很多人情绪高涨，但现在市场已经经历了一段调整，虽然还谈不上加密寒冬，但确实进入了熊市。

Because it is interesting, there was a ton of people really juiced up after the ETFs came out and after the new administration came in, they're gonna be pro crypto, and and now we've run, you know, a little bit of a you know, it's it's not a crypto winter by any means, but it's a bear market,

你知道的？

You know?

所以你觉得大家现在感觉怎么样？

So like how do you think people are feeling these days?

是的。

Yeah.

我其实就在大约一小时前，跟我的一位交易同行聊了同样的问题，我们都谈到，这段时期反而给了我们喘息的空间，让我们能重新回到探索、深入研究和创新的状态。

I was actually answering the same question to one of my, trading counterparts about an hour ago, and we were both talking about how it's given us the room to breathe to go back to the world where we were able to explore and diligence and innovate.

当然，相比每天价格剧烈波动、市场充满狂热高涨的时期，现在没那么令人兴奋了，那种环境确实很有趣。

And so while, of course, it's not as exciting as when there's crazy price swings on a daily basis and the exuberance that comes with really high increases in price, you know, that's always very, fun to be in that world.

但价格回调后，我有更多时间去研究代币化、稳定币这类话题。

But I have been able to spend a lot more time with the pullback in prices to research topics like tokenization, to research things like stablecoins.

这让我想起了ETF推出前的世界，当然，现在我们市场上已经有八个产品、八个代币在运行了。

And that is to me very reminiscent of the pre ETF world where, of course, now we're operating eight products in market over eight products, eight tokens in market.

所以我们确实需要持续关注每天把球滚上山这样的重复性工作，但如今我们有了更多时间，也少了些慌乱，可以更从容地研究未来、打造酷炫的东西并进行创新。

So we do have that kind of recurring things that we have to pay attention to the daily rolling of the ball up the hill, but there is more time and less franticness to being able to study what is to come and build cool things and innovate.

我不知道这是否是坏事。

I don't know if this is bad.

我的话听起来可能不太好，但也许我还没想到一些潜在的好处。

I mean, it's gonna sound bad coming out of my mouth, but maybe there's some some benefits that I'm not thinking about.

所以，在2019年，或者2021年，不管具体是哪年，每个人都想进入加密行业。

So in 2019, I guess, 2021, whatever it was, everybody wanted to work in crypto.

嗯。

Mhmm.

那是一件令人兴奋的事。

It was like the exciting thing.

这是一种全新的技术。

It was this new technology.

它具有颠覆性，还有诸如此类的特点。

It was, you know, disruptive and and all that sort of stuff.

而人工智能显然接过了接力棒，迅速发展起来。

And AI has clearly taken the baton and ran with it.

所以所有最聪明的极客现在都去从事人工智能项目了。

And so all of the smartest dorks are now going to work on AI projects.

这不好吗？

Is that bad?

我不明白这为什么会不好。

I don't know why it would be bad.

也许这不好。

Maybe it's bad.

我不确定。

I don't know.

你对这个行业正在发生的事情怎么看？

What's your take on what's happening in the industry?

我不认为是这样。

I don't think it's that.

我认为有一些正在酝酿的话题，它们之间有很多关联性。

I think that there are these percolating topics that have a lot of adjacencies.

因此，我将最近的热门话题，包括预测市场、人工智能、代币化和加密货币，都看作是这一范畴的一部分。

So, I view the recent buzz topics that it includes prediction markets, it includes AI, it includes tokenization, crypto.

我认为这些事物之间存在着很强的连续性。

I think that there's a lot of continuity between these things.

比如，我实际上参加过一个期权会议，我的背景是传统的金融从业者，但我现在却在从事加密货币领域的工作。

Like, for example, I actually attend an options conference and I'm a very traditional finance person by background, but I find myself working in crypto.

我为一家加密货币ETF发行机构工作。

I work for a crypto ETF issuer.

我去参加期权会议，那里大家都在讨论这些期权如何为预测市场ETF提供后台支持。

I go to an options conference where all the talk is about how these options can power, the back end for prediction market ETFs.

因此，我看到这些每周流行的概念正在大量融合。

So I'm seeing a lot of convergence in these, flavors of the week.

我认为其中一些肯定会长期持续下去。

I think some of them are definitely going to stick for the long term.

就像我刚才说的，这对我们来说是个很好的机会，能真正深入了解背后的运作逻辑，因为现在需要日常监控的剧烈价格波动变少了。

And like I said, this has been a good opportunity for us to really be able to dig in and, understand what's going on under the hood because there is less to have to monitor on a daily basis in terms of crazy price swings.

所以我觉得，当然，人才在找工作的时候，流向确实会受当下热门领域的影响，但我认为所有这些话题之间都存在大量的共通之处。

So I think, you know, of course, there will be some transfer of where talent wants to go based on what is most popular at the time that they're looking, but I think that there is a lot of overlap in all of these topics.

代币化。

Tokenization.

你觉得我们还要多久才能明确形势，做出下一步安排呢？

What do you think is a reasonable time frame for us to be like, alright.

这件事根本就没落地成真。

This is just not a thing.

就是说我们总听到有人提这事，但它从来没有真正发生过。

Like, it's a thing that we keep hearing about, but it's not actually happening.

因为我感觉现在的情况就是这样。

Because I feel like that's where it is now.

它确实挺有热度、挺受热议的。

It's, like, definitely buzzy.

人们都在谈论这件事，我也理解事情不会一夜之间发生。

And people are talking about it, and I understand that things don't happen overnight.

但请给我们一个你觉得合理的预期时间，看看这件事什么时候能实现。

But give us what you think is a reasonable time frame for this happening.

是到2028年的时候，这就会成为现实了吗？

Is it like by 2028, is this going to be a thing?

真正意义上的现实？

Like a thing thing?

是的。

Yeah.

这是个很好的问题。

It's a great question.

我认为代币化这个话题一直起起落落。

I think tokenization has ebbed and flowed as a topic.

现在它显然正处在高涨期。

Right now, it's definitely flowing hard.

我认为这部分原因在于，我们曾看到过一些我称之为类似公用事业提供商的机构，比如交易所，还有DTCC这样的机构也开始介入。

I think that part of that though is because we had seen these, I would call them almost like utility providers, exchanges, like the DTCC leaning into it.

所以我认为，进展就像火车已经驶离车站一样。

And so I think that the progress is the train is leaving the station if you will.

虽然它总是会比我们希望的慢一些，但我确实感觉到势头正在显著增强。

Now, it's always going to move slower than we would like, but I have sensed the momentum really picking up.

我认为，在未来几个月、几个季度，甚至今年内，通过《清晰法案》，我们可能会对这一领域所需的若干前提条件获得更明确的指引，这将极大地推动事情向前发展。

I think that it's possible that we could have a lot more clarity via the Clarity Act on some of the necessary prerequisites for this in the coming months, quarters, sometime this year, and that will really catapult things forward.

那么，代币化的最主要卖点是什么？

So what is the what is the main selling point of the tokenization?

你认为它会给投资者带来什么？

Like, what what do you think that's going to bring investors?

是成本更低吗？

Is it gonna be lower cost?

是交易速度更快吗？

Is it gonna be quicker speed of transactions?

是以上所有吗？

Is it all of the above?

那么，投资者能从中得到什么？

Like, what what do investors get out of that?

我认为目前我听到的最大卖点是，但这还处于非常早期的阶段。

I think right now the biggest selling point that I hear and again, it's very nascent.

所以这就像1.0版本，未来可能会发展到10.0版本。

So this is like one point o of what will probably become like 10 o.

但目前我听到的一些卖点主要是24/7的流动性以及即时结算的能力。

But some of the selling points that I hear of right now are really the twenty four seven liquidity, the ability to settle instantaneously.

这些都是那些首次接触数字资产交易的人所期待的特征，他们实际上正在要求传统金融也提供这些功能。

It's all of these features that one who has had their first trading experience with a digital asset has come to expect, and they actually are demanding that of traditional finance.

所以我认为这些是最初的主要卖点。

So I think that those are the initial selling points.

我认为未来，你可能会看到交易所或其他平台，比如Coinbase或Robinhood。

I think in the future, you might start to see exchanges or other venues such as a Coinbase or a Robinhood.

你原本认为只提供其中一种服务的地方，将来会变成你可以同时购买股票、加密货币以及各种资产的平台。

Places that you initially thought of as more as hosting one or the other will start to be something that you can buy both equities, crypto, you know, any sort of asset in.

我认为，代币化这一要素将有助于弥合这一差距。

And I think that having the tokenization, element is what is going to help to bridge that gap.

你认为哪些代币会从中受益？

Which tokens do you think are gonna benefit?

我们假设代币化真的成为现实。

Let's just assume that tokenization does become a thing.

这是否必须依赖于运行其上的某些基于区块链的加密货币，或者你认为这会对它们构成利好？

Does this does this have to be or would you think that it would be bullish for some of the blockchain based coins that this runs on?

我认为，那些在代币化应用中胜出的区块链肯定会受益。

I think it definitely will benefit the blockchains that win in the, you know, in the application of who is tokenizing what.

目前还很难说这一切最终会如何发展，但确实存在一些区块链。

It is unclear really how that will all play out, but there are some blockchains.

我不会具体点名它们。

I won't necessarily name them.

我不想偏袒任何一方，但有一些代币已经被一些服务提供商提及过。

I don't want to play any favorites here, but there are some that have been thrown around by some of these service providers.

我认为这就是为什么它们最近在新闻中如此热门，因为确实有人认为，如果它们成为代币化及其他类似项目的首选方式，可能会迎来爆发式增长。

And I think that is why they've been popular in the news recently is because some do think that they could blow up in a good way, if they are kind of the chosen way to approach tokenization and other projects like that.

那这个呢？

So how about this?

山寨币。

Altcoins.

山寨币正处于寒冬，也许永远衰落了。

Is the fact that Altcoins are in a winter, maybe dead forever.

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

并不是所有的都这样。

Not all of them.

但从长远来看，这会不会对整个领域有利，清理掉很多像我这样的人传统上觉得荒谬可笑的东西？

But is that maybe good for the space in the long term, cleaning up a lot of the things that people like me traditionally laugh at and say this is, like, complete nonsense?

我觉得可能会。

I think it could.

正如我所说，我认为加密货币正在成熟，随之而来的是，那种‘今日潮流’类型的代币吸引力减弱了。

Like I said, I think crypto is maturing, and I think that, along with that comes less, traction for the flavor of the day type token.

但这很有趣。

But it is fun.

我们得向根源致敬。

We have to go, you know, a nod to the roots.

曾经有一段时间，这种方式让加密货币吸引了大量关注。

That was a way that crypto got a lot of, a lot of eyeballs on it at one point in time.

但确实，目前人们对模因币的热情和兴趣，不如对比特币、以太坊这些我们称之为蓝筹币的项目那么高。

But, yeah, I I do think that there is not necessarily as much excitement and enthusiasm for meme coins right now as there is for Bitcoin, Ethereum, what we've come to call the blue chips.

我会说，随着越来越多的代币符合ETP资格，我们正看到大约前十到前十二种代币，以这种人们非常熟悉的形态进入市场。

I will say that as more and more tokens become ETP eligible, we are seeing kind of a top 10, top 12 or so that are accessible to the markets in this really familiar wrapper.

为了帮助投资者更好地组织这些资产，我们现在推出了一款产品，涵盖市值前五的代币。

And in order to organize that for investors, we do now have a product that is the top five by market cap.

它实际上排除了模因币和稳定币，我认为这很有吸引力，因为对于那些想进入加密领域但被目前以ETP形式提供的大量资产搞得不知所措的人来说，如果你想要筛选掉你所描述的那些可能被嘲讽的资产，这个产品正是为他们设计的。

It it actually excludes memes and stablecoins, and I think that that is attractive because for those who want to get into crypto are overwhelmed by the number of assets that are now available in ETP format but do want to screen out, you know, what you described as what you might mock, this is the product for them.

它的代码是GDLC。

That's ticker GDLC.

我认为这是对市场进行组织的好方法。

I think it's a good way to organize the market.

它涵盖了约90%的加密生态系统，是一种非常简洁的方式来规避这类代币。

It captures about 90% of the crypto, ecosystem, and it's a very streamlined way to avoid those types of tokens.

所以迈克尔谈到了一些东西的消亡，我认为随着时间推移，这一直是我对比特币和加密货币的整体观点：每次经历这样的周期，人们都会写文章说它已经死了，但每次它又似乎重新崛起。

So Michael talked about stuff dying, and I think over time, that's been my my thesis on Bitcoin and crypto in general is that every time it has goes through one of these periods, people write it off and say it's dead, and then every time it seems to come back.

关于它将做什么、将引领什么，叙事也发生了很大变化，而我认为这其实是个积极信号——仍然有足够多的人相信它，即使感觉新闻糟糕到不能再糟糕时，它依然能反弹回来。

And the narrative shifts a lot too about what it's going to do and what it's gonna lead to, and I actually think that's a positive that there's still enough people who believe in it that even when it feels like, man, the news couldn't possibly get any worse, it still comes back.

你觉得人们对此已经有点淡忘了吗？

Do you think that people have moved on from that a little bit?

就像这样，听好了。

It's like this listen.