关于AI的最佳看空案例（第478集）

有两个。

Have two

这不是你的错。

It's not your fault.

我有两种不同的视角来看待和体验年轻人。

I have two different lenses through which I see and experience young people.

第一种是社交媒体上的那些乱七八糟的东西，它们把一切都扭曲了。

Number one is this nonsense and social media, which paints a distorted picture of of everything.

对吧？

Right?

年轻人、老年人、不开心的人、开心的人、搞AI的人，所有人的形象都被扭曲了。

Young people, old people, unhappy people, happy people, AI people, everybody's warped image.

所以让我先把这个放一边，因为那不是真实的生活。

So let me just dis let me just put that to the side because that's not real life.

对。

Right.

然后还有和我们一起工作的人，我想这也算是一个，我不知道那是不是一个小样本。

And then I have the people that we work with, which is also a I suppose a I don't know if that's a small sample of people.

嗯，我知道那确实是个小样本。

Well, I do know it's a small sample of people.

我们有多少员工是30岁以下的年轻人？

How many people how many young people do we have working for us under 30?

我猜大概有20个吧？

I'm gonna guess, about 20?

我们大概有

We have like

对。

a Yeah.

大概20到25个吧？

Twenty, twenty five probably?

遍布全国各地。

All over the country.

不是赚60万美元那种。

Not making $600,000.

而且从各方面来看，这些人似乎都很幸福。

And by all accounts, these seem to be very happy people.

我不知道他们是否能代表所有年轻人，但我就是觉得，很多这种说法都被社交媒体扭曲了。

I don't know that they're, like, representative of the entire population of young people, but I just I just, I think that a lot of this shit is warped by social media.

我知道这

I know it's

如果你太沉迷网络，那确实是这样。

If if you're too online, then yes.

我同意。

I agree.

我也觉得会有那么一天，不管是现在还是将来，会有更多——我一直在强调这个——

I I also do think that there's going to be something, whether it's happening now or in the future, where there are just so many more I keep harping on this.

有钱人太多了，肯定会有一些不快乐的孩子，他们几乎可以说是向下流动，但这并不是他们自己的错，因为他们的父母太成功、太有钱了，所以他们可能会很痛苦，因为他们很可能达不到父母那样的成就。

There's so many more rich people that there are bound to be unhappy children who are almost, like, downwardly mobile through no fault of their own because their parents are so successful and rich, that they're going to be miserable because they're probably not going to be as successful as their parents.

确实是这样。

That's true.

他们会继承爸妈的钱，但正因为这样，他们永远不会快乐。

They're gonna inherit mommy and daddy's money, and it's like they're not they're never going to be happy because of that.

这对一小部分人来说会是个大问题。

That that's going to be a a big thing for a small segment of the population.

另一个重要的事情是，2008年我大学毕业的时候，显然不是个好时机，但那时候基本上没有年轻的富人。

The other big thing is that in 2008, when I was coming out of college, obviously not a great time, but there were no young rich people for the most part.

没有。

No.

没有。

No.

我只是

I just

这就是原因。

that's that's why.

那时候根本没有网红。

There's no there's no influencers.

那不算是一份工作。

That wasn't a job.

但这就是为什么2008年的危机如此不同，因为每个人都觉得自己在同一条船上。

But that's why the two thousand eight crisis was so different because everyone felt like they were in the same boat.

因为当时有年纪大的人陷入困境，失去了股票期权，在股市里被套牢，可能失去了房子，失去了工作，同时也有年轻人，所以每个人都在应对同样的事情，大家都在同一个频道上，而现在大家的频道不一样了。

Because there was older people who got in trouble, who lost their stock options, who got crushed in the stock market, who lost their house potentially, who lost a job, and also young people who were so everyone was dealing this at this everyone was on the same wavelength, and now there's a different wavelength.

因为有些年轻人会说，听我说。

Because some young people would say, listen.

好的。

Okay.

太好了。

Great.

过去五年我往401k里投了20美元，现在值45美元了。

I put $20 into my four zero one k in the past five years, and now it's worth $45.

这对我有什么好处？

What good does that do me?

我理解这一点。

And I I I understand that.

但作为年轻人，你也得有耐心，要知道大多数人不是一夜暴富的，你看到的那些故事并不正常。

But you also have to be patient as a young person, and know that like most people don't get rich overnight, the stories that you're seeing, that's not normal.

那不应该成为一种策略。

That shouldn't be a strategy.

人生有阶段，就像之前的年轻人一样，他们会走出这个阶段，进入下一个阶段。

Life has seasons, and like every young person before them, they will age out of this season of their life and into whatever's next.

是的。

Yes.

而且我仍然觉得，整体来看，年轻人会更有钱，因为他们中的一些人被挤出了房地产市场。

And I I still do feel like as a whole, young people are going to be richer because they're some of them box out of the housing market.

我确实认为这是事实，而且这可能仍然让他们更不快乐。

I really do think that's that's a thing, and it may still make them unhappier.

但我觉得他们会成为有史以来最富有的几代人之一，而且比大多数人更早富起来，因为他们更了解股市，也有机会参与其中。

But I think that this is they're going to be one of the wealthiest generations ever at a younger age than most because they know more about the stock market and they have access to it.

你看，这就是如今这个世界对我们的影响。

See, this is what this is what the world does to us these days.

我们一开始在说这是史上最牛的牛市之一，然后我们又不得不把它拉回现实。

We start out talking about how this is one of the greatest bull markets of all time, and then we have to bring it we have to bring it down.

凡事都有个前提条件。

Everything's a caveat.

说到这个，在2010年代，最大的前提就是牛市存在的唯一原因，我这么说可能有点像悲观主义者，唯一的原因就是……

Speaking of which, so in the two thousand tens, the big caveat was the only reason that we have a bull market, and I'm speaking in in like doomers here probably, the only

你说什么？

reason You're what?

我没听清。

I didn't hear that.

悲观主义者。

Doomers.

悲观主义者。

Doomers.

牛市存在的唯一原因是利率为零，以及美联储的货币政策和量化宽松。

The only reason there's a bull market is because interest rates are at zero and the Fed's monetary policy in QE.

这就是我们拥有牛市的唯一原因。

That's the only reason we have a bull market.

对吧？

Right?

那是2010年的事。

That was in 2010.

那是2010年到2000年，嗯，甚至2010年，因为现在是2010年。

That was 2010 to 2000 well, even 2010 because it's 2010.

你看，本，回到我之前说的那个点。

See, here's the thing, Ben, getting back to my earlier point.

2010年的时候，没人谈论牛市。

In 2010, nobody was talking about a bull market.

不可能。

No way.

这都是事后诸葛亮。

Is is all revisionist history.

对吧？

Right?

就像看篮球数据，然后说这个人是最棒的。

It's like it's like looking at basketball stats and saying, this person was the best.

不。

No.

如果你亲眼看过，你会说，不。

If you if you saw it, you would say, no.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

对。

Yes.

标普500在2009年涨了37%，或者差不多那个数。

The S and P 500 was up 37% in 2009 or whatever the number was.

那不算牛市。

That wasn't a bull market.

我们当时就在场。

We were there.

2011年的时候，我们还在讨论二次探底衰退。

In 2011, we were still talking about double dip recession.

那不算牛市。

That wasn't a bull market.

我们直到2013年才开始谈论新一轮牛市。

The only time we even started talking about a new bull market was 2013.

对。

Yeah.

但长期牛市只能事后才能定义。

But that a secular bull market can only be defined in hindsight.

当时是无法定义的。

It can't be defined in the moment.

好吧。

Fine.

我知道这里有很多细微差别，但我知道你当时在场。

I know there's nuance here, but I know you were there.

我们不会谈论

We would not talk about a

牛市。

bull market.

当然。

Of course.

没有人。

No one.

是的。

Yes.

我同意。

I agree.

所以2000年的时候，情况就是零利率。

So that was the thing in the 2,000 is 0% rates.

而到了2020年代，每次你告诉别人现在是牛市，他们就会说，哦，对。

And now in the twenty twenties, it's anytime you show someone there's a bull market, they go, oh, yeah.

嗯，政府支出、政府债务、赤字。

Well, government spending, government debt, deficits.

这就是牛市的唯一原因。

That's the only reason for the bull market.

而且很明显，这确实是其中很大一部分原因。

And obviously, that's that's a big part of it.

那些钱确实会落到利润上。

That that money does drop to the bottom line.

但问题是这样的。

But here's the thing.

因为在2010年代，问题是，好吧。

Because in the two thousand tens, the question was, okay.

行。

Fine.

欧洲有负利率。

Europe has negative rates.

为什么那里的股票没有疯涨？

Why aren't stocks going crazy there?

到了2020年代，还记得我们之前展示过迈克尔·森布利斯的那些数据吗？

In the twenty twenties, it's remember we showed this data from Michael Semblis before?

加拿大有，或者说不是加拿大。

Canada has a or not Canada.

中国的赤字比美国还大。

China has a bigger deficit than The US.

中国现在的借款占GDP的比例已经和美国一样甚至更高了。

China is now borrowing as much or more as a share of GDP than The US.

看看中国股市这十年来的表现，我之前还真没意识到这么糟糕。

Look at what Chinese stocks have done this decade, and I didn't really realize it was this bad.

MSCI中国指数这十年几乎没涨。

MSCI China has done literally nothing this decade.

二十年代到现在总共才涨了2%。

It's up 2% in total in the twenty twenties.

我明白你的意思。

I hear your point.

你不能拿中国股市和美国股市比。

You can't compare Chinese stocks to US stocks.

我明白。

I get it.

我们是资本主义社会，而他们某种程度上不是。

We we are we are a capitalist society, and they, sort of are not.

想想也挺疯狂的，当然，债务用途不同。

It's kind of crazy when you think and obviously, hey, the debt goes to different things.

我的意思是，你知道，不能只看一个变量，然后就说，好吧。

My point is, as you know, you can't just pick one variable like that, and you and you go, okay.

只要拉动这个杠杆，事情就会好转。

If you just pull this lever, things go up.

事情不是那样运作的。

It it it doesn't work like that.

对。

Yeah.

当然。

Of course.

对。

Right.

我觉得确实有人真这么想，觉得光明会拉动杠杆，让股市上涨。

I think there's people who actually think this is true, that the Illuminati is pulling the lever and making the stock market go up.

如果真这么容易，他们早就一直拉杠杆了。

And if it was that easy, they would just keep pulling the lever.

对吧？

Right?

那，那个“chicken jerry”是什么梗？

Well, keep what's keep that chicken jerry from?

是网上的一个搞笑片段吗？

Is that a blooper on the Internet?

这个我真不知道。

Gotta gotta plead ignorance here.

我没听说过这个。

I don't know what that one is.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

是一个天气预报员，后来火了。

It was a weatherman who went viral.

好的。

Okay.

行。

Alright.

总之，继续往下说。

Anyway, moving on.

不过，没有这个，牛市就谈不上。

Well, you can't have a bull market without this.

这张图表来自《华尔街日报》，数据源自美国银行。

Chart from The Wall Street Journal via Bank of America.

标普五百指数的盈利增长中位数。

The median earnings growth for the S and P five hundred.

所以把那些一次性的，比如超大规模数据中心公司，剔除掉。

So strip out the one time, like the hyperscalers.

盈利增长中位数大约是14%，这是很长时间以来最高的，至少从2023年以来，比正常水平高出很多很多很多。

The median earnings growth is about 14%, which is the highest it's been in a long time, which gets back I mean, at least since 2023, like, way way way way higher than normal.

这又回到了之前的观点。

Gets back to the earlier point.

这可能是增长的高峰。

This could be peak growth.

就像，我们

Like, we

我们可能有个好图表，不过。

we might good chart, though.

这是因为你说得对。

This because you're right.

这个图表排除了极端值和集中度，还有那些，嘿。

This takes away the the extremes and the concentration and the, hey.

这些全都是来自Anthropic和OpenAI的加价。

This is all just a markup from anthropic and OpenAI.

这并不代表不真实。

It doesn't it's not not real.

这是个好图表。

This is a good chart.

非常好的图表。

Very good chart.

好的。

Alright.

在TCAF上，我们一直在讨论尽管牛市如火如荼，尽管债券利率更高可以锁定，尽管货币市场利率在下降，但仍有大量资金留在货币市场基金里，资金并没有流出。

On on TCAF, were talking about how much money is still in money market funds despite the raging bull market, despite higher interest rates on bonds that you could lock in, despite despite money market rates coming down, like, money is not moving out.

有人说得对，你们总是谈论货币市场基金。

And somebody rightly said, guys, you always talk about money market funds.

你们从来不说分母有多大。

You never talk about how big the the denominator is.

然后我说，其实不是这样的。

And I would say I said, actually, not true.

不是这样的。

Not true.

上周四，我忽略了市场要大得多这个事实。

Last on on on Thursday, I omitted the fact that the market is so much bigger.

但这个图表我们以前已经分享过无数次了。

But we've we've shared this chart a million times in the past.

所以得感谢这位给我们发邮件的人。

So credit to this person for sending us the email.

你得调整一下，因为我们之前说，天哪。

You have to make the adjustment because we were saying like, oh my god.

三万亿美元。

$3,000,000,000,000.

那是场外的资金。

That's money on the sidelines.

无所谓。

Whatever.

这占标普500市值的11%，低于1990年以来18%的平均水平。

It's it's it's 11% of the S and P 500 market cap, which is below the 18% average since 1990.

所以我不确定我以前见过这么长时间跨度的图表。

So I don't know that I've seen this chart before going this far back.

我想图表能帮你解决这个问题。

I assume Chart could help you with this.

2009年3月货币市场基金占股市的61%，这太离谱了。

That is bananas that it was that money market funds were 61% of the stock market in March 2009.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得那纯粹是分母崩塌。

I think that was just a pure denominator collapse.

那当然。

Well, of course.

但那个，但那个高成这样，对。

But that but being that high Yeah.

真是疯了。

It's nuts.

因为那只是互联网泡沫时期的一半左右。

Because it was half of that in the .com bubble or whatever.

所以我觉得，这是《华尔街日报》的一篇文章。

So I think what's so this this is a Wall Street Journal article.

文章说，有3万亿美元的散户资金放在货币市场里，我真的觉得，这笔现金现在就是债券配置。

It said there's $3,000,000,000,000 in retail money sitting in in money markets, and I really do think that this that cash is a bond allocation now.

我觉得很多人对债券失望透了，因为你在那什么里亏了18%的钱，所以人们就说，你知道吗？

I think so many people got fed up with bonds because you lost 18% of your money in the ag or whatever, that people said, you know what?

行吧。

Fine.

现金就是我的债券配置，即使利率和收益率更低，我也会采用杠铃策略，而且我不会再碰债券了。这很有意思，因为我觉得你和我可能之前搞错了一点，或者我们当时倾向于认为，一旦利率达到某个水平，就会对其他资产形成竞争，对吧？

Cash is my bond allocation, and even if I get lower rates and lower yields, I'm going to have a barbell portfolio, and I'm hit not gonna in bonds again, Which is interesting because I think you and I, something we may have been wrong about or we were leaning, that we thought once rates get to a certain level, it's going to be competition for other stuff, right?

所以现在看看通胀保值债券，因为大家都在担心通胀。

So if you look at tips right now, because everyone's worried about inflation.

对吧？

Right?

是不是？

Correct?

人们认为通胀会更高。

People think inflation's gonna be higher.

我们处于3%的世界，而不是2%的世界。

We're in a 3% world, not a 2% world.

通胀很顽固。

Inflation is sticky.

政府支出显然没有放缓。

Government spending is obviously not slowing down.

这列火车停不下来。

Nothing stops this train.

那你怎么能在二十年或三十年的国债上拿到3%的实际收益率呢？

So how are you getting 3% in a tips yield for a twenty or thirty year bond?

再加上通胀，你就能拿到3%的实际回报。

Plus inflation, so you get a real 3% for bond.

这简直是太划算了。

Like that's a pretty darn good deal.

威廉·伯恩斯坦写过一篇文章，他是国债的大粉丝。

And William Bernstein wrote a piece on this, he's a big tips guy.

他很多书里都经常提到这个。

He always writes about this in a lot of his books.

他说到2010年，国债收益率已经跌到2%以下。

He's saying by 2010, yields for tips had fallen below 2%.

到2011年，跌到1%以下。

By 2011, below 1%.

2021年，五年期通胀保值债券的收益率跌到了负1.76。

In 2021, the five year tips yield fell to negative 1.76.

当时收益率是负的。

You had a negative yield.

你实际上是在按实际价值付钱给政府来买这些通胀保值债券。

You were literally paying the government in a real basis to buy these tips.

现在你能拿到3%的通胀保值债券收益率，他说这简直是一个巨大的买入机会。

Now you can get 3% in tips, and he's saying this is like a massive, massive buying opportunity.

就是说，你能在政府债券上拿到3%的实际收益。

Like, can get 3% real in a government bond.

太不可思议了。

Holy crap.

但没人关心这个。

And no one cares.

没人想要这些东西。

No one wants this stuff.

我理解，我明白这一点。

And I I under I understand it.

对。

Yeah.

没人关心这个。

Nobody cares.

人们都是用名义价值来思考的。

People think in nominal terms.

所以他们也是……

So on They also they

而且人们也还有，就是那些伤疤还没好。

also and people also have been they just the scars are still fresh.

他们的手碰到烤箱还疼呢。

Their hand still hurts from touching the oven.

他们不想在固定收益里再经历波动了。

They don't want volatility in their fixed income.

所以，在史蒂夫·艾森这周的播客里，他请来了斯特拉塔加斯的杰森·坦纳。

So on Steve Eisen's podcast this this past week, he had Jason Tenner from Strategas.

你上周也请了斯特拉塔加斯的托德，对吧？

You you had Todd from Strategas last week too, right?

我们确实请了托德·斯通。

We did have Todd Stone.

他们问，债券利率要到什么水平，人们才会卖掉一些股票？

So they asked, what's the level of interest rate for bonds that would get people to sell some stocks?

他们意见一致。

And they all agreed.

我以为会是百分之四、百分之四点五左右，可能你和我都会说，是啊，赶紧加仓吧。

I thought it was like four, four and a half percent, which probably you you and I probably would have said, yeah, back up the truck.

但人们会说，实际上要高得多。

People are gonna be and they said, it's actually way higher.

这完全是牛市心态，如果你在股市每年赚20%，你还在乎债券市场给你4%、5%还是6%吗？

And this is just total bull market mindset that if you're getting 20% a year in the stock market, what do you care if you can get four, five, or 6% in the bond market?

对。

Yeah.

听起来是一回事。

It sounds the same thing.

对吧？

Right?

这就是唯一的

It's it's the only

百分之三，也是一回事。

percent, 3%, same thing.

你是在事后才这么说。

You say it after after the fact.

等这波行情结束，肯定会有人看着债券说，这些傻瓜怎么不把钱都投到五年期国债里？

Whenever this thing ends, someone's gonna look at bonds and go, why didn't all these idiots put their money into five year treasuries?

你开什么玩笑？

Are you kidding me?

因为那时候的收益率你知道是多少吗？

Because they were yielding what you know?

而且这也是事后才知道的。

And it that's the only thing you know after the fact.

但与此同时，是的。

In the mean yeah.

没人会说，对，

No one's gonna say, yeah.

我要锁定5%的收益。

I'm gonna lock in 5%.

太棒了。

Awesome.

也许有些退休的人会这么做。

Maybe some retirees.

但大多数人不会这么做。

Most people aren't going to do that.

我忘了说个好消息。

I forgot to mention exciting news.

我们的老朋友摩根·哈塞尔加入了The Compound。

Our longtime friend, Morgan Hassel, has joined The Compound.

摩根有个播客叫《金钱心理学》，跟他那本畅销书同名，而且我说畅销是真的畅销。

Morgan has a podcast called The Psychology of Money, name of his best selling book, and I do mean best selling.

那本书肯定是金融史上卖得最好的。

Gotta be it has to be the number one selling book in the history of finance.

不是吗？

No?

如果说是个人理财行为心理学类的书，那可能是。

If we call it, like, a personal finance behavioral psychology book, probably.

对。

Yes.

好吧，我连第二名是哪本都不知道。

Well, I don't even know what number two is.

《聪明的投资者》是不是销量第一？

Is The Intelligent Investor the number That

那肯定是《聪明的投资者》。

that it has to an Intelligent Investor.

那本书从四十年代就开始卖了，到现在还在卖。

That thing it's been on sale since the nineteen forties, and it's still like

我打赌摩根卖得比《聪明的投资者》多。

I bet you Morgan sold more than the intelligent investor.

这我不清楚。

I don't know.

那本书才出版没多久吧。

It's just been out for maybe.

总之，摩根是个非常了不起的人，也是了不起的作家和演讲者。

Anyway, Morgan is an incredible person, incredible author, speaker.

他是少数几个……

He's one of the few.

能同时写好文章又讲好话的人真不多。

Not too many people can can write and speak.

这确实很难。

Very diff very difficult.

我觉得我这两方面可能都低于平均水平。

I would say I'm probably below average at both.

我两样都能做。

I could do both.

就是

It's

两种不同的能力。

two different muscles.

你，就是

You're It's

两种不同的能力。

two different muscles.

虽然不怎么样，但我两样都能做。

Not well, but I could do both.

有些作家写得特别好，但你要是听他们说话，哎呀，天哪。

There are some really good writers who if you hear them speak like, oh gosh.

对。

Yeah.

所以你和我就都是那种……

So you and I are both like

不。

No.

你写得很好，你是个很棒的作家。

You're great you're a great writer.

你是个作家，但说话水平只有C+。

You're an a writer, c plus speaker.

我觉得我写作是C-，说话是B。

I would say I'm a I'm a I'm a c minus writer and a b speaker.

这很公平。

That's fair.

平均下来，更多是B。

Average it out more b's.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得德里克也是个奇才。

I would say Derek is another unicorn.

德里克·汤普森，双A。

Derek Thompson, AA.

嘿。

Hey.

听着。

Listen.

我大学毕业时，平均绩点大概3.3。

I graduated college with, like, a 3.3 grade point average.

我觉得我们就是这样的水平。

I think that's where we are.

三点二，三点三。

Three two, three three.

好的。

Okay.

如果我们取个平均值的话。

If we average it out.

等等。

Wait.

我还有一件事要说。

I have one more thing to say.

哦，说到书。

Oh, speaking of books.

我几乎把所有的书都处理掉了。

I got rid of almost all my books.

哦，好的。

Oh, okay.

你发了一张你坐在车道上，旁边堆着一堆U-Haul箱子的照片。

You sent the you sent a picture of you sitting in your driveway with a bunch of U Haul boxes.

所以它们要被收走了？

So they're being picked up?

看起来还没被收走。

It looks like they weren't picked up yet.

你为什么要这么做？

Why would you do this?

因为书架看起来就是很好看。

Because a bookshelf just looks so nice.

书架上有那么多书，就是有种特别的感觉。你为什么要那样做？

There's something about a bookshelf with all these book why did you do that?

我没有……我家放不下书架。

I have no I can't fit a bookshelf in my house.

哦，你没有地方放它吗？

Oh, you have no room for it?

没有。

Nope.

我听着，我挺喜欢看它的，但它算是一件家具。

I listen, I I enjoyed looking at it, but it's sort of a piece of furniture.

我希望我能保留我的书。

I wish I could keep my books.

我不能永远留着它们。

I can't keep them forever.

我有11个箱子，它们占太多空间了。

I have 11 boxes where they're taking up too much space.

我再也不会读这些书了。

I'm never reading these books again.

所以你把它们捐给图书馆还是怎么处理？

So you give them to the library or what?

我留了那些有签名的，但其他的，我也不知道。

I kept the ones that are signed, but they I don't know.

有家图书公司把它们收走了。

Some book company picked them up.

好的。

Okay.

感觉我囤书的那段日子已经结束了。

Felt like that season of my life of hoarding my books is over.

我希望我有地方放书架，但我没有。

I wish I had space for a bookshelf, but I don't.

嗯，这挺有意思的。

Well, it's funny.

现在几乎每本我买的新书，要么是Audible上的，要么是Kindle上的。

Almost every new book I buy now is either on Audible or Kindle.

所以，虽然还是有人送我纸质书，但我现在读的大部分书都是电子版的。

So I don't I people send me books still, but most of the books I have now, I I'm I'm consuming in electronic form.

这就对了。

There you go.

好的。

Alright.

我们来聊聊一个牛市的故事吧。

Let's talk about a bull market story here.

哦，等等。

Oh, wait.

还有一个债券图表。

There's one more bond chart.

对，就这个。

Just yes

或者就简单说两句。

or Just real quick.

牛市面临的另一个风险。

Another risk to the bull market.

债券收益率一直在不断攀升。

Bond rates just continue to march higher.

尤其是长期债券，这是最糟糕的部分。

The especially at the long end, which is, like, the worsen part.

对。

Yeah.

但我们刚才讨论的表明，在风险真正显现之前，它并不算风险。

But what we just talked about shows that it's not a risk until it is.

就像，在牛市里，没有人

Like, no one the in a bull market, no one

会关心债券收益率。

cares about bond yields.

风险要等到真正发生才算风险？

It's not a risk until it is?

我的意思是，难道不是吗？对。

I mean, isn't it Yeah.

确实，这真的是这样。

Literally, that's true with

我们刚才不就聊过这个嘛。

just every we just had this conversation.

现在根本没人关心债券收益率。

No one no one cares about bond yields right now.

当股市给你带来这么多收益的时候。

When the stock market is giving you so much

这是个潜在的风险。

It's a potential risk.

对。

Yeah.

而且这不只是在美国。

And it's not just in The US.

全球的债券收益率都在飙升。

Global bond yields are screaming higher.

而且我觉得大部分情况下，股市不是大部分情况。

And I think for the most part, the stock market not for the most part.

股市已经消化了更高的利率。

The stock market has absorbed higher rates.

股市正处于历史高位。

Stock market is at altum highs.

当然，确实如此。

Of course, it has.

中位股票也处于历史高位。

The median stock is at an altum high.

我们现在已经习惯了这种情况。

We are now used to this.

如果三十年期国债收益率从百分之五跳到百分之六，股市就会承受不住。

If the thirty year goes from if it lurches from five to six, the stock market will buckle.

但如果它是稳步上升，我不知道临界点在哪里，但值得关注。

But if it's a steady march higher, I don't know where the line is, but something to keep an eye on.

股市真的就像一个拳击手，一直在挨打。

The stock market really has been like a boxer that just absorbs punches.

就像，挨了无数拳。

Like, takes takes like a million punches.

还记得《辛普森一家》里霍默吗？他的特点就是别人打他，直到打的人自己累倒。

Remember in The Simpsons where Homer, his whole thing was like people would punch him until they fell over?

他就一直挨打，最后，那就是股市。

And he just took the punches, and then finally the that's the stock market.

所以不管扔过来什么，它都接得住。

So everything that's been thrown at him, it takes it.

然后时不时地，它还会反击，然后上涨。

And then every once in a while, it punches back and and goes up.

但如果你四年前告诉我，嘿，房贷利率会一直保持在6%，债券收益率会到5%，而且30年期国债收益率会创最高纪录，还会继续涨，我会说，天哪，这对股市肯定不好。

But if you would have told me four years ago, hey, mortgage rates are gonna be at 6% forever, and bond yields are gonna be at 5%, and you're gonna get the highest thirty year bond yields and keeps going higher, I would have said, man, that can't be good for the stock market.

对吧？

Right?

股票根本不在乎。

Stocks don't care.

真是疯了。

It's crazy.

好吧。

Alright.

《华尔街日报》报道了一个很棒的牛市故事。

Great bull market story here from The Wall Street Journal.

约会市场突然被芯片宅男主导了。

The dating scene that's suddenly dominated by chip nerds.

多亏了六位数中段的大额奖金，三星和SK海力士的工程师成了韩国最抢手的单身汉。

Thanks to mid 6 figure bonuses, engineers at Samsung and SK Hynix are the hottest bachelors in South Korea.

你看，他们真该为此拍个真人秀。

See, they should make a reality show about this.

他们采访了所有人，还跟一个在三星工作的哥们聊了聊。他说那里每个人都拿六位数的奖金，而且他和同事们因为持有股票期权，受到的浪漫关注更多了。

And they interview all these people, and they talk to this guy who works at Samsung, and he gets he said like everyone there is getting 6 figure bonuses, and he says that like there's more romantic interest for him and his coworkers because they're they got stock options.

SK海力士的主妇们。

The Real Housewives of SK Hynix.

我喜欢这个。

I love it.

不过，这确实是个很棒的牛市故事。

That's a great bull market story, though.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Yeah.

挺好的。

It's good.

我觉得他们说的平均，你知道，我肯定他们也有股票期权。

It makes I I think they said the average you know, I'm sure they get stock options too.

他们采访了一位女士，她说，我和一个在SK海力士工作的男人约会了三年，我最大的遗憾就是当时没买他们的股票。

And they they interviewed one one woman who said, I dated a guy who worked at SK Hynix and for three years, and my biggest regret is that I didn't buy the stock.

节目都播了半小时了。

It's thirty minutes of the show.

我们还没提到AI存储股的反弹呢。

We haven't even mentioned the rebound in the AI memory names

特别是

in

那些股票。

particular.

天哪。

Oh my gosh.

它们马上就强势反弹了。

They came roaring back immediately.

对吧？

Right?

闪迪上周涨了35%。

Sandisk was up 35% last week.

但你看，这就是关键所在。

But see, this is the point.

当我们也是问题的一部分时，本，我们喜欢谈论坏消息，而好消息，哎，谁在乎呢。

When we're part of the problem too, Ben, we love talking about the bad news, and the good news, ah, cares.

那是因为我们会继续前进。

That's because it's we move on.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Right.

一个风险，一周，下周，另一个风险。

One risk, one week, next week, other risk.

好吧。

All right.

我在想这个。

I'm thinking about this.

我们继续揪着可能的坏消息不放，因为这就是我们的本性，我们总是担心。

As we continue to harp on potential bad news, because that's what we do, we worry.

这已经是最好的情况了。

This is as good as it gets.

人类永远不会改变。

Humans are never gonna change.

但我确实觉得，有点奇怪，我对此没有任何证据。

But I do think that there's, like, some weird I I have no evidence of this.

有一种奇怪的现象，就是人们想要回到过去。

There's some weird thing going on where people want to go back.

我觉得部分原因肯定是疫情，但人们就是想要重新开始。

And I think part of that is certainly COVID, but like people want a reset.

我觉得，我不知道，我不知道该怎么表达这个。

And I think I don't know I don't know if I don't know how to articulate that.

所以，你的意思是说

So the way like so you're talking about

就是，就是

The way the way

通货膨胀、物价什么的，好吧。

things Inflation and prices and stuff and okay.

但我甚至不

But I don't even

我甚至不知道

I don't even I don't even know that

那是人类的本性。

that's Human condition.

对。

Yeah.

我甚至不知道这是不是2026年的故事。

I don't even know that that's like a 2026 story.

我觉得这是永远都有的那种。

Think it's like a forever sort of

的事情。

thing.

不过我觉得在很多方面，2020年确实是一个巨大的分水岭。

I do think in a lot of ways, though, 2020 is a huge line of demarcation.

对

For

没错。

sure.

有新冠之前和新冠之后。

There was a before COVID and there's an after COVID.

我觉得这确实影响了很多人的心态。

And I think that is that is screwed with a lot of people.

我同意这一点。

I do agree with that.

好的。

Alright.

有人给我们发了邮件。

Somebody emailed us.

等等。

So wait.

等一下。

Wait.

别急。

Hang on.

回到刚才说的经济衰退这个话题。

Getting back to this recession thing.

我一直在想，接下来会有什么反应？

I I I keep thinking through, like, what is the reaction function going to be?

我觉得这种情绪可能会空前地消极，我们从未见过。

And I think that this sentiment could be so so overwhelmingly negative like we've never seen before.

说消费者信心会跌到历史最低点，这很容易。

That that's pretty easy to say, like, consumer sentiment will just drop to lowest levels we've ever seen it.

但如果有些人其实因为经济衰退而更开心呢？

But what if some people actually are happier that we're in a recession?

就像，你知道吗？

And it's kinda like, you know what?

我之前一直在受苦，现在轮到他们了。

I've been suffering, now they're suffering too.

如果真有那么20%或30%的人口，不管具体数字是多少，心里想，你知道吗？

And what if there are there is a certain 20% of the population, 30%, whatever the number is, who kinda go, you know what?

我不介意这个。

I don't mind this.

我不介意经济衰退。

I don't mind a recession.

反正我的生活本来就不怎么样。

My life hasn't been very good anyway.

哦，对。

Oh, yeah.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

会有很多这样的情况，下次经济衰退的时候，有些人会很高兴。

There's gonna be a lot of that where some people are going to be happy when we have the next recession.

那会是一种情绪。

That's going to be that's going to be an emotion.

我刚收到一条短信，Ben。

My just got a text message, Ben.

Oasis的《Don't Look Back in Anger》现在在电影院和IMAX上映了，9月9日。

Oasis, don't look back in anger, is out now in cinemas and IMAX, September 9.

我前几天还在想这个，因为我们又快到了未来证明的时间了。

I was thinking about that the other day since we're almost time for future proof again.

那是我经历过的最好的演唱会之一，就氛围而言，那场演唱会的氛围简直爆棚。

One of my best concert experiences I've ever had in terms of just the vibes, vibes were off the chart of that concert.

太棒了。

It was amazing.

那真是太开心了。

That was so much fun.

我特别喜欢。

I loved it.

我人生中最美好的夜晚之一。

One of the best nights of my life.

那真是太棒了。

That was great.

好了。

Alright.

这里的邮箱是什么？

What's the email here?

好的。

Okay.

市场还可以。

Markets okay.

你多次说市场永远是对的。

You say markets are always right many times.

如果市场永远是对的，那就不会有买入机会了。

If markets are always right, there would be no buying opportunities.

所以，这个流行的说法是不准确的。

Therefore, this popular statement is inaccurate.

别吓唬大家总是去做指数投资。

Don't scare the people to into always indexing.

要相信。

Believe.

好的。

Alright.

这里有很多内容要展开。

Lot to unpack here.

我的操作前提是市场永远是对的。

My operating premise is that the market is always right.

但现在我知道这不是真的。

And now I know that's not true.

显然，市场并不总是对的，因为你知道吗？

Obviously, the market is not always right because guess what?

价格明天会变，后天也会变，有时候价格变化太快，市场不可能总是对的。

The price changes tomorrow and the day after, and sometimes the price changes so fast that the market can't always be right.

尤其是在不确定和混乱的时候，我想我要说的是，很难知道市场什么时候是错的。

And especially when there's uncertainty and and confusion, I guess the point that I'm making is it's hard to know when the market's wrong.

如果你觉得这有争议，那你就是个傻瓜。

And if you think that that's controversial, you're an idiot.

这应该是任何投资者的基本前提，就是很难知道市场什么时候是错的。

That should be like that should be like the fundamental premise for any investor is that it's hard to know when the market's wrong.

好的。

Okay.

这倒是个很好的过渡。

So that's a really good segue.

几年前，伯特·马尔基尔上过巴里的播客，那时候巴里刚开始做《商业大师》这个节目，我记下了这句话。

So Bert Melkiel was on Barry's podcast a number of years ago, right when Barry started Masters in Business, and I had this quote.

他说，人们以为市场有效性意味着价格是完全正确的。

And he says, people think that market efficiency means the price is perfectly right.

这是错的。

That's wrong.

他说价格从来就不是对的。

He said the price is never right.

实际上，价格总是错的。

In fact, prices are always wrong.

对的是，没有人能确定价格是过高还是过低。

What's right is that nobody knows for sure whether they're too high or too low.

问题不在于价格总是对的，而在于永远无法明确它们是不是错的。

It's not that the prices are always right, it's that it's never clear that they are wrong.

市场是非常非常难以战胜的。

The market is very, very difficult to beat.

我觉得这样讲就说得通了。

I think that makes Okay.

更有道理了。

More sense to

对，这也是我在想的事情。

So that's also I was thinking about this.

我和一个朋友坐车的时候，我们聊到了股市，他听起来就像每一个散户投资者，我这么说完全没有贬义。

I was I was in the car ride with a friend, and he was we were talking about the stock market, and he sounded like every retail investor, and I don't mean that pejoratively at all.

对吧？

Okay?

他听起来就像每一个在过去十五年里做得特别好的散户投资者。

He sounds like every retail investor who's done extraordinarily well over the last fifteen years.

而且我知道Ben，你说过有些人希望经济衰退。

And I know Ben, you said there's some people that want a recession.

有很多专业投资者希望这个时代结束，就是那些最知名、最优秀的公司一直碾压其他所有公司的时代。

There's a lot of professional investors who want this era of the best and most well known companies beating everything.

人们需要那个时代结束。

People need that era to end.

他们需要它结束。

They need it to end.

对。

Right.

这个傻瓜就买了五只科技股，结果他比我赚得多。

This idiot just bought five tech stocks, and he's killing me.

我真不敢相信。

I can't believe this.

所以我的朋友，我们就叫他普通投资者吧，他十年前买了谷歌的股票，然后一直拿着没动，我说“只是拿着”，这真的非常难做到。

So my friend, and let's just call my friend the average investor, who bought Google ten years ago and just held it, and when I say just, extraordinarily hard to do.

我就没做到。

I didn't do it.

所以我并不是在贬低他们。

So I'm not putting them down.

他们确实把所谓的专业投资者打得落花流水，而且像这样的投资者还有很多。

Has beaten the shit, and there's so many investors like that that have beaten the absolute living shit out of, quote, professional investors.

对。

Right.

明白吗？

Okay?

而且我无论如何都没法说服他，这简直是——

And there's nothing that I could do to to to to convince him that this is You

你刚才差点用了个大词，结果自己停住了。

were just about to use a big word there, you stopped yourself.

安抚。

Assuage.

是的。

Yes.