摇摇欲坠的纸牌屋（第483集）

我觉得药对我没什么效果。

I feel like medicine doesn't have an effect on me.

就是那种小药。

Like, minor medicine.

比如我吃布洛芬或者泰诺，感觉没什么变化，既没好也没坏。

Like, if I would take ibuprofen or Tylenol, I feel it doesn't I never feel better or worse.

我感觉都一样。

I feel the same.

嗯，这个说法挺有意思的。

Know, that's a interesting take me.

我不会说药对我没影响，因为那话有点太绝对了。

So I I wouldn't go as far to say as medicine doesn't impact me because that's that's a bold claim, Cotton.

但我也是感觉都一样。

But I always feel the same too.

比如，我以前是个老烟枪，但现在不是了。

Like, I so I was I was a a pothead for a long time, and I no longer am.

而且这已经好几年了。

And it's it's been several years.

但它只是我生活的一部分。

But it was just part of my life.

自我治疗吧，我觉得，不是什么好事。

Self medicating, I suppose, not a great thing.

但我之前提到，最近有人问我，你感觉有什么不同吗？

But I was talking about there was somebody recently who said, do you feel different?

我说，我不知道。

And I said, I don't know.

我觉得没有。

I don't think so.

我觉得我感觉一样。

I think I feel same.

那不可能，因为大麻对你的整体健康非常有害。

That can't possibly be true because marijuana is terrible for your overall everything.

但我总觉得我一直都一个样。

But I kinda feel like I always feel the same.

我的不是

My Not

不是想抢你的风头，但我还是原来那个人。

to point steal your thunder, but I'm the same same guy.

如果是大药，那倒是。

If it's like big medicine, then yes.

但感冒药、流感药，那些都不行。

But cold flu medicine, none of that.

感觉对我一点用都没有。

Feel like none of it touches me.

但打点滴的那个人，因为别人说，嘿，去打点滴吧。

But the guy at the IV, because people said, hey, get an IV.

我们整天都在太阳底下。

We're in the sun all day.

我们晚上还喝酒。

We're drinking at night.

你知道，我们吃得挺多的，但就是有点累。

You know, we're eating like, we're kind of tired.

我们整天站着，干了很多活。

We're doing a lot on our feet.

那段时间我们特别忙，然后有人建议说，去打一针点滴吧。

We're it was a very busy time for us, and someone said, get an IV.

会让你感觉好一些。

It'll make you feel better.

所以我们打了B12的，那人说，等一个小时就会见效。

So we did the B twelve one, and the guy said, give it an hour and it'll kick in.

说实话，一个小时后，我真的感觉精神焕发。

And honestly, an hour later, I felt invigorated.

还真管用。

Actually worked.

我简直不敢相信。

I couldn't believe it.

我们是不是跳进了那个坑？

We hopped in the oche?

也许那也是一部分原因，大自然。

Maybe that was part of it too, nature.

好吧。

Alright.

我们能先不聊AI这个话题吗？

Can we can we move off this AI topic for now?

我觉得十五分钟足够了。

I think fifteen minutes is plenty.

我吃饱了。

I'm full.

你还有什么要说的吗？没有。

You have anything No.

暂时没有。

Not for now.

好的。

Okay.

我只是，我的，我的，抱歉。

I just my my sorry.

我的结论就是，万一这些公司大到那种程度，所有关于它们像纸牌屋一样的担忧根本就不会成真呢？

My conclusion is just what if what if these companies are so big that all of the worries about being a house of cards are just not going to come to fruition?

大多数担忧都不会成真。

Most of the worries don't come to fruition.

这是件好事。

It's a beautiful thing.

不是威廉·伯恩斯坦。

Not William Bernstein.

像梅森那样的人，天哪，我的脑子。

Who is like Mason, my god, my brain?

比尔·米勒。

Bill Miller.

比尔·米勒。

Bill Miller.

谢谢。

Thank you.

比尔·米勒有一次说过一句很棒的话，当时有人问他，你对股市有什么担忧？

So Bill Miller had such a great quote one time when he was asked what worries you about the stock market.

他说，没有。

And he said, nothing.

他说，市场已经替我担心够了。

He said, the market does plenty of worrying for me.

我觉得这种看法真的很棒。

I think that's such a great way to look at it.

不管是你、我们，还是所有人担心什么，这就是为什么英伟达的远期市盈率只有16倍。

Whatever you, we, all of us are concerned about, that's why Nvidia is 16 times forward earnings.

所有的担忧都已经反映在价格里了。

All of the worry is in the price.

但这并不意味着担忧的程度总是恰到好处。

Doesn't mean it's and it doesn't mean that the worry is always the appropriate amount of worry.

可能担忧得不够，也可能担忧得过头。

It could be under worry or over worry.

但无论你担心什么，就当作市场也在担心吧。

But whatever you're worried about, just assume that the market's worried too.

这种看待问题的方式真的很棒。

That's a great way of looking at things.

好的。

Okay.

如果有人该担心的话，那应该是你儿子，他还要参加第二次试训。

If anyone should be worried, should be your son who's having a second tryout.

真不敢相信我们让孩子经历这些。

I can't believe we put kids through this.

一个运动项目要试训两次？

Two tryouts for one sport?

是啊，简直疯了。

It's dude, it's crazy town.

确实如此。

It really is.

好吧。

Alright.

我们最近在节目里经常讨论的一个话题是，在所有这些关于股市和经济的讨论中，也许最重要的变量就是系统里有多少钱，以及这个影响有多难量化。

One of the things that we've been discussing on the show a lot lately is just how the perhaps the most important variable in all of this discussion around the stock market and the economy is just how much money there is in the system and how difficult it is to quantify that impact.

比如，《华尔街日报》报道说，今年第二季度家庭净资产达到了186万亿美元，比2024年第四季度增加了26万亿美元。

So for example, The Wall Street Journal reported that household net worth hit a $186,000,000,000,000 in the second quarter of this year, which is up 26,000,000,000,000 from just the fourth quarter of two thousand twenty four.

186万亿美元？

A $186,000,000,000,000?

这到底意味着什么？

What does it even mean?

Ben，我们来回折腾到月球多少次了，就为了堆美元？

Ben, how many times do we go back and forth to the moon with with dollar stacking?

所以我上周让ChartKid帮你看了这个。

So I had I had ChartKid look at this from you last week.

2019年底，我只看了二十年代，美国居民总净资产是109万亿美元。

At the end of twenty nineteen, so I'm looking at just the twenty twenties alone, we were at a $109,000,000,000,000 for total US household net worth.

今天，是1886万亿美元。

Today, it's $1,886,000,000,000,000.

这十年，居民净资产几乎翻了一番。

It's effectively almost doubled this decade, household net worth.

我们按美联储的各种分组拆解了数据，前1%，剩下的前1%，接下来的9%，再接下来的40%，还有底部的50%。

And we broke it down by all these the Fed has all these different cohorts, the top 1%, the remaining top 1%, the next nine, the next 40, and the bottom 50.

每个群体的净资产都至少增长了60%。

And every single group has seen at least a 60% rise in net worth.

有点好笑。

It's kinda funny.

相对而言，增长最大的是底层50%的人群，他们的净资产从低基数起步，显然翻了一倍多。

The the biggest gain on a relative basis is the bottom 50% who've seen their net worth more than double off of a low base, obviously.

但这不仅仅是富人更富的那种情况。

But this is not just a kinda thing where the rich are getting richer.

这个十年里，每个人的净资产都在增加，每个群体，从低收入到高收入都是如此。

Everyone has seen their net worth increase this decade, every group, the low end to the high end.

你说得对，这就是为什么经济能在又一次加息中继续强劲的原因。

And you're right, this is this is the simple why is the economy is the economy powering through another rate hike?

因为每个人都有更多的钱，这就是原因。

Because everyone has more money, that's why.

下一张图表展示了我最喜欢的图表格式之一。

This next chart shows one of my favorite formats of charting.

它显示了按年份的累计资金流动。

It shows the cumulative flows by year.

从一月到十二月，追溯到2021年，那是一个泡沫横飞的年份。

So January through December, going back to 2021, which was a bubblelicious year.

那看起来就像巴里·邦兹没用类固醇之前的样子，跟2026年比简直没法比。

And that looks like Barry Bond's pre steroids compared to 2026.

这完全是另一条斜率完全不同的线。

It's just a it's just a completely different slope of line.

系统里的钱多得吓人。

There's so much freaking money in the system.

每次我聊到这些资产的时候，我都会强调这不是永久的。

Now every time I talk about the assets, I always do mention that it's not permanent.

我们还没达到一个永远的高点。

We have not reached a permanently high plateau.

这些数字在熊市里可能跌个30%甚至更多，但它带来的推动力实在太大了。

These numbers can fall 30% in a bear market or more, but it it's powering so much.

简直难以置信。

It's unbelievable.

我从这张图里注意到一件事，你看每年报税季人们拿到退税的时候，数字都会往上跳一下。

The one thing I noticed from this chart, look at how every year for tax time when people get their refunds, how it increases.

每年报税季都会出现一个高峰。

There's a spike every year on tax time.

嗯，是下跌和高峰。

Well, a dip and a spike.

先是付款，然后……但你说得对。

The payment and then the but you're right.

2021年比2022年或2023年高得多，因为那是投机的一年，而今年简直让2021年和去年都相形见绌。

2021 was way higher than 2022 or 2023 because that was a speculative year, and this year has it just puts 2021 to shame and last year.

所以我真的为投资者感到骄傲。

So I'm really proud of investors.

截至8月，资金流入债券的速度创下了纪录。

There is a record pace of money flows into bonds through August.

超过6000亿美元流入固定收益。

600 plus billion dollars into fixed income.

一般来说，投资者在股市中最糟糕的做法就是加仓亏损的股票。

And the worst thing an investor can do in general in the stock market is add to losers.

那是一个非常非常糟糕的策略。

That is a very, very bad strategy.

如果那是你的策略，相信我，你最终会停下来的。

If that is your strategy, trust me, you will eventually stop.

等等。

Wait.

为什么那是糟糕的策略？

Why is that a bad strategy?

这不是沃伦·巴菲特的策略吗？

This is the Warren Buffett strategy.

不。

No.

不是。

It's not.

不。

Do No.

不是，那可不是巴菲特的策略。

Not say That is not a Warren Buffett strategy.

什么？

What?

不。

No.

买那些下跌的股票？

Buying buying stocks that are down?

不。

No.

那不一样。

That's different.

好。

K.

买可能下跌的股票和加仓亏损的股票，不是一回事。

Buying stocks that might be down versus adding to losers is not the same thing.

如果你持有一只股票，回报是负的，还一直补仓摊低成本，那你肯定会亏很多钱。

If you have a negative return on a stock and you consistently average down, you will lose a lot of money.

这是事实。

Is a fact.

这不是个人看法。

That is not an opinion.

这是

That is a

别偷邓肯的投资策略了。

Stop stealing Duncan's investment strategy.

他可是个补仓大户。

He's a big time average down guy.

债券市场的情况不完全相反，因为里面有很多变量，但现在我们正面临十年期国债收益率达到5%的情况。

The bond market is not exactly the reverse because there are variables involved, but we are now staring at a five percent ten year.

在我看来，这是个很有吸引力的投资机会，我觉得投资者们正在合理利用这一点。

That is, in my opinion, an attractive investment, and I think that investors are rightly taking advantage of it.

我上周买了债券。

I bought bonds last week.

我两周前就买了债券。

I bought bonds two weeks ago.

这真的是我这辈子头一回

This is literally the first time in my entire

顺便说一句，刚才那感觉有点怪。

By the way, that felt like a real weird one up.

我是想说，我跟你一样。

I meant to say, I'm with you.

我不是想说我比你早买债券。

I'm not trying to say I bought bonds before you did.

我跟你一样。

I'm with you.

而且我不在乎债券是不是还会涨到5.5%，因为你知道吗？

And I don't care if bonds go to 5.5 more or because guess what?

我会继续加仓，继续加仓我的亏损头寸。

I will add to I will add to my loser.

所以我想，除了我孩子的05/29计划里的目标日期基金之外，这是我职业生涯中第一次个人购买债券。

So I guess other than maybe a target date fund for my kid's 05/29 plan, this is the first time I've ever bought personally bought bonds in my entire career.

5%的收益率。

5% yield.

因为，我们还没有……

Because I we haven't

这看起来很明智。

It just seems prudent.

自大金融危机以来，我们还没见过5%的收益率。

We haven't seen 5% yields since before the great financial crisis.

这看起来很明智。

It just seems prudent.

确实。

It does.

好的。

Okay.

你把这个高盛的图表放进来。

You put this one in here from Goldman Sachs.

股票相对于债券的表现。

Equities relative to bonds.

所以，股票相对于债券，经历了接近创纪录的超额表现期。

So this is equities have enjoyed a near record period of outperformance relative to bonds.

这既包括美国市场，也包括全球市场。

So this is both a US and world portfolio.

它显示了股票和债券之间的差距，在五十年代和六十年代达到最高，这很合理，因为那也是从非常低的水平回升的，这是十年滚动回报率。

It shows the spread between stocks and bonds, and it was the highest in the nineteen fifties, nineteen sixties, which makes sense because that was also coming off of very low, and this is what, ten year rolling returns.

所以，正因为如此，人们严重低配债券，只是自然漂移的结果。

So as a result of this, people are severely underweight bonds for for just for natural drift

是的。

Yes.

自满。

Complacency.

股票每年给你14%的回报。

Stocks have given you 14% a year.

债券的实际回报是零。

Bonds have given you a flat real return.

那你为什么要持有债券呢？

Why would you own bonds?

2022年的创伤后应激障碍。

2022 PTSD.

我完全理解。

I get all of it.

但如果你对股市哪怕有一点点担心，或者你觉得14%的回报不会持续，你还有5%的回报。

But if you are even a little bit worried about the stock market, or you don't think that the 14% will persist, you have 5%.

终于。

Finally.

终于。

Finally.

在我们整个职业生涯中，情况一直是，嗯，我拿不住2%收益的债券。

For our entire career, it was like, well, I can't hold bonds 2%.

1.5%的收益，还能剩下什么？

One and a half percent, what's left?

所以在这个十年的早期，我们给客户看了一张图表，我们研究了不同的收益率水平，然后说，这就是你的股票投资组合需要达到的回报，才能实现6%、7%、8%的目标。

So in the early part of this decade, we showed a chart to our clients where we looked at different yield levels, and we said, this is what your stock portfolio needs to do to hit like a six, seven, eight percent bogey.

如果你有60/40的投资组合，但债券收益率只有1%或2%，你就需要股票市场提供更多的增长。

If you have a sixty, forty portfolio, but bonds are only yielding one or 2%, you need a you need much more lifting from the stock market.

所以你可能需要从60/40的投资组合转向80/20。

So you might need to go from a sixty forty portfolio to an eighty twenty.

而且大家都这么做了。

And everyone did.

事实上，很多人确实这么做了。

And in fact, lot of people did that.

我们的顾问当时告诉客户，要么降低预期，要么增加股票配置。

Our advisors were telling people, you either lower your expectations or you increase your equity allocation.

结果没想到，股市还真给力。

And lo and behold, the stock market actually came through.

确实如此。

It really did.

真是见鬼了。

Son of a bitch.

就好像股市每年需要涨个11%或12%，才能让60/40组合达到那个收益目标。

It was like It was kinda like the stock market needs a return, like, 11 or 12% per year to hit this return bogey for a sixty forty portfolio.

结果它还真做到了，真是服了。

And goddamn it, it did.

你敢信吗？

Can you believe it?

不敢。

No.

所以现在我让我们的研究分析师肖恩做了这个，显示在5%的收益率下，你需要——之前，在二十年代初，你可能需要股票有11%的回报，才能让60/40的投资组合达到7%的回报。

So now I had Sean, our research analyst, create this for us showing with a five percent yield, you need so before, in the early twenty twenties, you probably needed you needed, like, 11% in stocks to get a 7% return in a sixty forty portfolio.

现在你只需要股票有8%的回报，加上债券的5%。

Now you only need 8% from stocks with your 5% with bonds.

好多了。

It's much better.

所以现在这个更匹配了，那些之前承担了更多风险的人，现在可以希望，哦，我本来应该用60/40的，但我用了70/30、80/20或者90/10，现在我可以回到70/30或者60/40了，因为这些更匹配了。

So this is this is much more in alignment, and the people who did take more risk now can hopefully think, oh, I from, I should've been sixtyforty, I went seventythirty or eightytwenty or ninetyten, now I can maybe get back to seventythirty or sixtyforty because these things are more in alignment.

世界正在愈合，或者已经愈合了。

The world is healing or has healed.

即使收益率继续上升，就像你说的。

Even if yields keep going up, to your point.

还有迈克·西卡迪的一句话。

One more thing from Mike Siccardi.

我觉得我喜欢这个。

I feel like I like this.

这是高盛的另一个观点。

This is another one from Goldman.

他们分析了未来十年的各种不同情景。

They look at all these different scenarios for the next ten years.

我喜欢这个，因为我觉得过去十五年我们看到的每一个回报情景都很糟糕。

I like this because I feel like every return scenario that we've looked at for the past fifteen years has been awful.

这就是为什么未来的回报率会降低。

Here's why the returns are gonna be lower going forward.

高盛研究了所有这些不同的情景。

Goldman looked at all these different scenarios.

他们考虑了滞胀、经济停滞、金发女孩经济，我认为那只是强劲的经济，然后他们还考虑了最佳情况，比如金发女孩经济加上持续的AI繁荣。

They looked at stagflation stagnation, Goldilocks, which I think is just a strong economy, and then they looked at the best case, like Goldilocks plus a continued AI boom.

他们说，如果我们能实现金发女孩经济加上一个不会衰退的AI繁荣，未来十年标普指数的年回报率可能达到14%。

And they say if we get a Goldilocks plus an AI boom that doesn't falter, we could be seeing 14% annual returns in the S and P for the next ten years.

所以，如果经济继续强劲增长，AI繁荣持续，每年14%的回报率，那将是有史以来最伟大的牛市。

So that's the economy still powers higher, and the AI boom continues, 14% per year, which would give us literally the greatest bull market of all time.

如果你是个爱下注的人，你觉得概率有多大？

What probability if you're a you're a betting man

我当然是啊。

I sure am.

你是用FanDuel还是DraftKings那种的？你觉得概率是多少？

You're a FanDuel guy or whatever or DraftKings, What probability would you put that?

就是说，你得看到什么样的赔率才会觉得，行吧。

Like, what what odds would you have to have that say, okay.

我们就赌这个Goldilocks加AI繁荣能持续十年。

We're gonna do this Goldilocks and AI boom for ten years.

再持续十年。

Ten more years

保持两位数的回报率。

of double digit returns.

但说到转换成本。

But talk about switching costs.

理论上来说，而且我觉得这不一定是我独有的情况。

Theoretically, and I I don't think this is necessarily unique to me.

理论上来说，其实这根本不是理论上的问题。

Theoretically, it is super duper not theoretically.

对我来说，用DraftKings或者Fanatics或者那些预测市场网站来做体育博彩，简直太容易了。

It is incredibly easy for me to use DraftKings or Fanatics or one of the prediction market sites to do my sports betting.

但是FanDuel，我从一开始就在用，它存了我所有的数据。

But FanDuel, which I've been on since the beginning, has all of my data.

所以我其实不会换，因为那是我的成绩单。

So I actually am not going to switch because that's my scorecard.

就像你的牙医一样。

Just like your dentist.

这就是惯性。

It's inertia.

我不去看牙医。

I don't go to the dentist.

这个问题我们之前已经聊过了。

We've been through this.

好吧。

Alright.

那么，概率是多少百分比呢？我也不知道。

So what percentage probab I don't know.

我甚至不知道从哪里开始算起。

How would I even know where to begin?

11%。

11%.

我本来想说10%的概率。

I was gonna say 10 probability of that.

但说实话，我觉得挺有意思的，因为机器人消灭我们的概率是10%，而我们可能迎来史上最大牛市的概率也是10%。

But I I honestly think that it's it's kinda funny because there's a 10% chance robots will wipe us out and a 10% chance we could just see the greatest bull market of all time.

继续。

Continue.

我正和Josh讨论这个，你有什么看法？

So I'm talking about this with Josh and I, and what are your thoughts?

我之所以那么肯定地说，有时候我会犹豫或者不犹豫。

The reason why I said so emphatically, sometimes I hedge or not a hedge.

有时候我会说我觉得，其实我明明知道。

Sometimes I I give I I say I think when in fact I know.

所以刚才在对话里，我明确说过，加仓亏损的股票是个糟糕的策略。

So earlier in the conversation, I said emphatically that adding to losers is a terrible strategy.

这不是个人观点。

And that is not an opinion.

这是有数据支持、可以量化的事实。

That is an empirical, quantifiable, backed by data fact.

所以我和Josh要讨论的是Adam Parker在Trivariant Research写的一篇文章。

So Josh and I are going to be talking about a piece that Adam Parker at Trivariant Research wrote.

那篇文章的标题是“买入并持有并不奏效”。

The title of the piece is buy and hold doesn't work.

亚当展示了在过去三年和过去十年中，跑赢标普500指数的股票比例。

And Adam showed the percentage of stocks beating the S and P 500 over the last three years and over the last ten years.

结果就是一路向下、向右。

And it is just down and to the right.

在三年和十年期间跑赢大盘的股票数量，不仅在标普500中，在罗素2000中也是如此。

The number of stocks that are outperforming over three year and a ten year period, and not just in the S and P and the Russell 2,002.

然后他按一年、三年、五年、十年期进行了细分。

And then he breaks it down into one year, three year, five year, ten year periods.

你挑选一只跑赢市场的股票的最佳机会是在一年期内。

And the best chance you have at picking a stock that's going to beat the market is over a one year period.

因为短期内，可能会有很多潜在的错位。

Because in the short term, there's a lot of potential dislocation.

一只股票可能被超卖，然后反弹一年，但在十年期内仍然可能是一只糟糕的股票。

Where a stock can get oversold and it could bounce for a year and it could still be a terrible stock over a ten year period of time.

但在十年期内，也就是高盛分析所采用的时间跨度，你几乎没有任何清晰度。

But over a ten year period of time, which is what the Goldman analysis is doing, you have literally zero clarity.

完全为零。

Absolutely zero.

在任何一个领域，没有人能知道十年后世界会是什么样子。

Nobody knows anything in any field about what the world will look like in ten years.

没有人。

Nobody.

所以我的理解是，以前个人投资者买入并长期持有个股可能更容易。

My so my reading of that would be that it probably used to be easier to be an individual stock buy and hold investor.

过去很多人，比如在三十年代、四十年代和五十年代，都是靠股息来做的，但我认为现在事情变化得太快了，个人投资者想长期持有个股变得更难了。

And a lot of people in the past did it in, like, the thirties, forties, and fifties did it for dividends, but I think things change so much faster now that it is harder to be an individual stock buy and hold investor.

那是不可能的。

It's impossible.

所以亚当说，在最新的观察中，美国前500大股票中只有23%的股票持有十年能跑赢指数。

So Adam says only 23% of the top 500 US stocks held for ten years beat the index in the latest observation.

哇。

Wow.

23%。

23%.

这真是又疯狂又让人难过。

That's a wild, sad.

问题是

The thing is

持有三年的命中率是27.7%。

For three year holdings, the hit rate is 27.7%.

但每个人都会看着英伟达、苹果和所有科技股说，不，不，不，你们错了。

But everyone would look at Nvidia and Apple and all the tech stocks and go, no, no, no, you guys are wrong.

但那些是例外。

But those are the outliers.

那些是例外，明白吗？

Those are the outliers, hello?

但再说一遍，我重复是因为人们，我能听到人们说集中投资，最多就是70个傻瓜。

But it's, again, I repeat because people, I could say, I could hear people say concentration, just the max of 70 idiots.

前2000只股票的情况完全一样。

It's the same exact thing in the top 2,000 stocks.

这个数据真是惊人。

That's a wild stat.

所以十年里，只有23%的股票。

So ten years, 23% of stocks.

哇。

Wow.

这也是为什么主动型基金经理很难跑赢指数。

Which is another reason why it's so hard to beat the index for active managers.

你必须更频繁地交易。

You have to be more actively traded.

有意思。

Interesting.

那好吧。

So alright.

本，这真的很随意。

Ben, this is really random.

我也不太清楚为什么把这个加进来，或者为什么这个突然出现在我脑子里，但就是出现了。

I don't know exactly why I threw this in here or why this popped into my brain, but it did.

然后我就在想《出租车里的告白》。

And it it I was thinking about Taxi Cab Confessions.

《出租车里的告白》是大概九十年代中后期的一个节目。

Taxi Cab Confessions was a show in the, I guess, mid to late nineties.

这个节目是我爸妈睡觉后我偷偷看的，其实我不该看的。

It was a show that I watched when my parents went to sleep that I shouldn't have been watching.

好像只有在我爸家才能看，因为我妈那边没有HBO。

I guess only my dad's house because my my mom didn't have HBO.

所以我在我爸家看的。

So I watched it at my dad's house.

《出租车里的告白》就像它的名字一样。

And Taxi Cab Confessions was exactly what it says.

基本上就是在出租车里做忏悔。

It was basically like a confession in a taxi cab.

人们坐在出租车里去教堂。

People were going to church in a taxi cab.

我记得好像是在纽约和拉斯维加斯拍的。

It was it was in I think it was in in New York and Las Vegas.

深夜的乘客，喝得醉醺醺的，什么都不管不顾，就会跟出租车司机讲各种疯狂的故事。

Late night riders, drunk, inapplicence to the wind, and they would just share crazy stories with the taxi cab driver.

我怎么会想到这个节目呢？

Why was I thinking about the show?

我完全不知道。

I have no freaking idea.

但要是今天把这个节目放给别人看，肯定会有很多疑问，因为当年这节目可是相当大胆的。

But if you showed this to somebody today, there would be a lot of questions that this was such an such a provocative show back in the day.

如果今天做这个节目，人们早就习惯了镜头和说话，大家会表现得更加做作。

If you did this show today, people are so much more used to cameras and talking, and you would get people would be way more performative about it.

那就没那么真实了。

It wouldn't be as real.

对。

Correct.

但话说回来，如果优步司机开始跟你聊天，虽然我觉得可能凌晨两点谁都会聊几句。

But and also, if an Uber driver started talking to you although I suppose maybe at two 2AM anybody talks.

但大多数情况下，人们不想跟司机聊天。

But for the most part, people don't wanna talk to their drivers.

这有点像真人秀刚开始的时候，其实还挺真实的。

It's kind of like how reality TV was actually kind of real when it first started.

后来大家发现，如果我表现得更夸张一点，就能成为明星，然后……

And then people realized like, oh, if I am more performative, I can become a star, and then

就变得假了。

it became fake.

有意思。

Interesting.

好的。

Alright.

我们来聊聊美联储吧。

Let's talk about the Fed.

我能不能既给美联储上周加息点赞，又质疑为什么我们非得加息不可？

Can I both give the Fed credit for raising rates last week and also question why we had to raise rates?

请讲。

Go ahead.

好。

Okay.

首先，德意志银行的这张图表显示了十年期国债平均收益率与平均名义GDP增长率的对比，两者走势相当吻合。

So first of all, this chart from Deutsche Bank shows the average ten year yield versus the average nominal GDP growth, and it tracks it pretty darn closely.

它表明，考虑到名义GDP增长，当前的利率水平是合理的。

And it's saying, so rates where they are make sense given nominal GDP growth.

另外，拉胡尔·夏尔马也发了这条推文。

But also, Rahul Sharma tweeted this.

这些我们都用过了。

We've used all this.

他提到富国银行和第一资本银行，说消费者很强劲。

So he talks about Wells Fargo and Capital One saying, listen, the consumer is strong.

这些都是他们的原话。

There's all these quotes.

我们在所有信用等级客户中都看到了类似的消费强劲表现，包括一些收入最低的客户。

We see similar spending strength across all our credit spectrum, including some of our lowest income customers.

总体来看，即使面临很多不确定性，消费者依然表现出很强的韧性。

Overall, the consumer continues to show a lot of strength even in the face of a lot of uncertainty out there.

这些说法我们已经读了好几年了。

These are the same quotes we've been reading for Years, four

所以大家都还很坚挺。

So everyone's staying strong.

那我的问题就是，既然失业率只有4%，通胀率是3.5%，美联储为什么还觉得需要放缓经济呢？

So my question is, why does the Fed feel like they need to slow the economy if we have a 4% unemployment rate and and, yeah, inflation's three and a half percent?

他们为什么要这么做？

They wanna get it why?

经济明明运行得很好。

The economy is doing fine.

他们为什么觉得有必要放慢它？

Why do they feel the need to have to slow it down?

这是个好问题。

That's a good question.

我的第一反应是，他们担心——虽然我可能大错特错——他们担心AI建设会进一步推高通胀。

I knee jerk reaction is that they are worried, and I could be way, way, way off, that they are worried about the AI build out fueling more inflation.

而且那些超大规模企业借了很多钱。

And the hyperscalers are borrowing a lot of money.

也许提高资本成本，能让他们稍微收敛一点。

And maybe if you increase the cost of capital, it will slow them down a little bit.

因为就像你说的，我不确定他们认为这会对能源价格产生什么影响。

Because to your point, I don't know that they think that this is going to do anything to energy prices.

因为比如说，不含能源的CPI同比上涨了2.1%，这已经非常接近他们的目标了。

Because for example, CPI without energy is up two and a percent year over year, which is pretty damn close to their target.

含能源的CPI是3.4%。

CPI with energy is 3.4%.

所以我们看到的所有增长基本上都来自伊朗战争。

So all of the increase we've seen is coming from the Iran war essentially.

嗯，大部分是，但另一方面，《华尔街日报》在中期选举前几周发表了一篇文章，说几乎所有东西都在涨价。

Well, a lot of it, but but the other side of that is The Wall Street Journal ran a piece week before weeks before the midterms, almost everything is getting more expensive.

所以总体消费者价格自2021年1月以来上涨了27%，但我们日常支付的很多东西都涨了40%、60%。

So consumer prices in the aggregate are up 27% since January 2021, but there's a lot of things that we pay for on a daily basis that are up 40%, 60%.

我的问题是，为什么我们要因为科技公司花了很多钱，以及我们和伊朗开战，而伤害消费者？

My my question is why are we harming consumers because tech companies are spending a lot of money and because we went to a war with Iran?

为什么我们要因此伤害家庭？

Why do we have to harm households because of that?

这怎么会伤害家庭呢？

Which how is this harming households?

这让借贷变得困难多了，我们正在试图让经济降温。

It's making it it's making it much harder to borrow, and we're trying to slow the economy.

所以我们可能是在伤害家庭，因为我们和伊朗开战了，而且还有人工智能泡沫的问题。

So we're harming households potentially because we went to a war with Iran, and we have an AI bill bug going on.

美联储没法阻止这些事情。

The Fed can't stop those things.

你真的觉得

There's really Do you really

如果美联储再加息50个基点，超大规模数据中心真的会放慢人工智能的建设吗？

think the hyperscalers if the Fed raised rates even another 50 basis points, is that really gonna slow down the AI build out?

你觉得马克·扎克伯格会说，对，

You think those Mark Zuckerberg is gonna say, yeah.

好吧，

Okay.

我们现在就放慢速度。

Now we'll slow down.

不可能。

No way.

也许不是那些超大规模企业，但是……

Maybe not the hyperscalers, but

这只是九牛一毛。

It's drop in the it's a drop in the bucket.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我又不是美联储。

I'm not the Fed.

你想让我怎么样？

What do you what do want from me?

但这个人……

But this is guy.

但问题是……

But I but here's the thing.

我明白，因为大家都说沃什是个傀儡。

I do get because everyone said, Warsh is a puppet.

他完全按照特朗普的意愿行事。

He's doing whatever Trump wants him to.

所以我得给这家伙点赞，因为大家都觉得他只会照做，但他实际上还是加息了，因为那是委员会想要做的。

So I give the guy credit because everyone he's just he he actually raised rates because that's what the committee wanted to do.

所以这不是加权平均，但如果你看篮子里的各个项目的话。

So not this is not weighted, but this is just like if you look at the individual items within the basket.

对吧？

Alright?

有些项目显然比其他项目更重要。

Some some items are obviously more important than others.

比如能源，就比其他项目更重要。

Energy, for example, more important than others.

但消费者篮子中仍有三分之一的项目年增长率超过4%。

But a third of the consumer basket is still rising at more than 4% year over year.

还有很多东西的涨幅远远超出了让人舒服的范围。

There are still a lot of things that are going up way faster than is comfortable.

我很惊讶这个数字没有更高，因为平均值差不多是百分之三点五。

I'm surprised that's not higher because the average is three and a half percent almost.

这很有意思，因为低收入家庭需要这些。

This is interesting because lower income households need this.

所以迈克·祖卡迪展示的，我觉得K型经济一直有点站不住脚。

So Mike Zuccardi showing that the k I think the k shaped economy was always kinda bunk.

就像我们之前聊过的，有钱人总是花得更多。

Like, we've talked about how it's always been rich people have always just spent more.

在八月。

In August

等等，等等。

Hold hold on.

小心点，因为人们对这个真的很敏感。

Be careful because people get really annoyed about this.

我觉得我们没这么说过。

I don't think that we've said that

K型经济其实根本不存在，从来就没有什么K型的形状。

the k shaped is really that was there was never anything in the shape of a k.

人们说K型经济，是因为这个说法听起来不错，但实际上没有任何图表看起来像K。

Like, they people say k shaped economy because it's a good narrative, but no chart ever actually looked like a k.

我觉得我们同意一个前提，就是总有赢家和输家，而且经济中的上层阶级一直比下层阶级表现得好。

I think we we I think we agree with the premise that there are always winners and losers and that the upper the upper class of the economy has always done better than the lower class.

所以这里有个让人头疼的问题。

So here's the thing that stinks.

因为现在数据显示，八月份，低收入家庭税后工资增长继续超过高收入家庭。

Because right now, it says in August, after tax wage growth for lower income households continued to outpace that of higher income households.

所以现在低收入家庭的工资增长比中等收入和高收入家庭都要高。

So lower income households are seeing higher wage growth than middle income and higher income right now.

这个情况已经反转了。

This has flipped.

所以这种情况已经反复了好几次。

So and it's flipped a couple times.

在2020年代初，工资增长比较低，然后情况发生了反转。

In the early twenty twenties, it was lower, then it flipped.

现在又回到了原来的状态。

Now it's back.

不过，糟糕的是，低收入家庭在能源价格上的支出占预算的比例要大得多。

The the thing that stinks, though, is that there's a way bigger consumption of energy prices in a budget for lower income households.

所以他们确实需要这次加薪。

So they need this raise.

但对他们来说，这次加薪实际上会被更高的油价抵消。

But this raise for them effectively is going to pay higher gas prices.

这就是让人头疼的地方。

That's what stinks.

低收入家庭现在工资增长更快，这确实是件好事，但大部分增长现在都被消耗掉了。

It's a great great thing that the lower income households now have higher wage growth, but most of those gains are being eaten up right now.

好的。

Alright.

现在经济的一个有趣之处在于，劳动力市场持续强劲——用“强劲”这个词合适吗？

One of the interesting things about the economy right now is the continued is strength the right word in the labor market?

它又在回升了。

It's it's picking up again.

是的。

Yes.

劳动力市场确实变得更强劲了。

There is increased strength in the labor market.

我会在意

I would I would care

那这个呢？

about How about this?

没有疲软迹象。

A lack of weakness.

可能和强劲不是一回事。

Maybe not the same thing as strength.

但过去一年，首次申请失业救济的人数下降了10%。

But initial unemployment claims are are down 10% in the past year.

而持续申请失业救济的人数，也就是那些失业一段时间的人。

And continuing claims, meaning people that have been uninsured for a while.

也在下降。

It's falling.

你怎么解释这和“AI会抢走所有工作”的说法之间的矛盾？

How do you reconcile this with AI is gonna take all the jobs?

劳动力市场正在变得更强。

The labor market is getting stronger.

我觉得我们一直在讨论这个问题。

Well, I feel like we keep having this conversation.

我不认为有人觉得不是这样。

I I don't think anybody thinks Not

不会发生的。

happening.

AI带来的工作不会一夜之间全出现。

AI jobs are all going to come overnight.

好吧。

Okay.

听起来你这是在偷换概念。

That sounds like you're moving the goalposts.

我没有偷换概念。

I'm not moving the goalposts.

你觉得这很荒谬，你是在得意忘形吗？

Think that's a ridiculous you're spiking the football?

我没有得意忘形。

I'm not spiking the football.

我是说，我们重新审视这件事是好事。

I'm saying it's a good thing that we're reassessing this.

我只是因为有些人给出了六个月后的预测。

I just because there were some people were giving forecasts for six months from now.

不。

No.

不。

No.

但不是。

But no.

那不是真的。

That's not true.

那不是真的。

That's not true.

没有人说过六个月后所有工作都会消失。

Nobody said in six months all the jobs are going away.

你完全是在编造。

You're literally making that up.

Anthropic的Dario说过，六个月内，一半的初级白领工作会消失。

Said Dario from Anthropic said in six months, half of all entry level white collar jobs will be gone.

我不信他说过这话。

I don't believe he said that.

那确实是原话。

That was an actual quote.

好吧。

Alright.

那他其实说错了。

Well, he was actually wrong.

不管怎样，你觉得AI不会影响经济吗？

Either way, do you do you think that AI is not going to impact the economy?

我是说，你是这个意思吗？

I mean, is that what you're saying?

这里有个很好的切入点。

Here's so I have this is a good lead in.

约翰·阿诺德发帖说，西海岸，我们正面临现代历史上从未有过的经济转型。

So John Arnold posted, West Coast, we're approaching an economic transformation unlike anything in modern history.

东海岸，我们预计未来三年GDP增长率为2.1%。

East Coast, we're looking at three more years of 2.1% GDP growth.

我就是随便提一下。

I'm just throwing it out there.

如果AI能稍微提升一下生产力呢？

What if AI gives us a little bit of boost in productivity?

它确实让我们的生活变得更轻松、更高效，但就像互联网一样，对GDP没有太大影响。

It makes our lives demonstrably easier and more efficient, but it does like the Internet, there's no huge change to GDP.

我觉得这是很有可能出现的结果。

I think that's a very reasonable outcome we could see.

因为我觉得科技界的人以为我们会看到4%甚至6%的增长。

Because I think the tech people think we're gonna have, like, 4% growth, 6% growth.

他们会觉得那是个神奇的增长乌托邦，但我真的认为更可能的情况是增长率只有2%到2.5%。

It's gonna be this magical utopia of growth, and I really think that there's a much higher likelihood that growth is just two, two and a half percent.

也许吧。

Perhaps.

但GDP是衡量这个的正确标准吗？

But is is GDP the right measure?

因为那正是科技人士会说的话。

Because That's what what the tech that's what the tech person would say.

不是。

No.

但确实如此。

But it's true.

它到底能反映什么呢？

What does that what does that really capture?

我们国家的总产出？

The total output of our country?

这还挺重要的。

It's kind of a big deal.

我觉得这不是正确的衡量标准。

I don't think it's the right metric.

那什么才是正确的衡量标准呢？

What what is the right metric?

感觉。

Vibes.

好吧。

K.

我也不知道什么才是正确的衡量标准。

I don't I don't know what the right metric is.

现在人工智能对感觉也没什么帮助。

AI is not helping with vibes right now either.

大家都讨厌它。

Everyone hates it.

嗯，这确实是真的。

Well, that's definitely true.

我只是想说，我真的觉得GDP可能会小幅增长，这种可能性更大。

I I but I I I'm just saying I really do think that this is a more likely outcome, that GDP could increase a little bit.

而且从长远来看，这会是件大事，因为经济规模太大了，但科技圈的人会说，等等。

And that would be a huge thing over the long term because the economy is so big, but the tech people go, wait.

什么？

What?

如果GDP真的小幅增长，股市也没有崩盘，那么巴菲特的指标——虽然他现在已经不太在意这个指标了——会变得更加失衡。

If GDP does increase a little bit and the stock market doesn't crash, then Buffett's indicator, which is something that he doesn't really care about anymore, is going to get extremely even more lopsided.

股市规模相对于GDP的比例会继续让看空的人抓狂。

The stock the size of the stock market versus GDP is going to going to continue to make bears insane.

我觉得，芒格甚至说过，巴菲特已经不信这个了。

I I think it's and Munger even said, like, Buffett doesn't believe this anymore.

别开玩笑了。

Get out of here.

我想，为什么股市占GDP的比例不能随时间推移变得更高呢？

I think why wouldn't the stock market be a bigger percentage of the GDP over time?

说它必须保持在某个水平，因为过去是这样，为什么？

I the claim that it has to be a certain level because it was in the past, why?

不。

No.

美国企业比其他一切都强大。

Corporate America is more powerful than everything else.

而且更多人投资股市。

And more people invest in the stock market.

当然，它更大了。

Of course, it's bigger.

股市里的钱比过去多了。

There's more money in the stock market than there was in the past.

但这只是我们产出的一个部分，不过它是最大的部分。

But one piece of of of our output, but it's the biggest piece.

我不想让这个……我不知道为什么这些想法总是突然冒出来。

I don't wanna let this this I don't know why the things pop into my brain all the time.

突然冒出来的家伙。

Popping guy.

你知道刚才突然想到什么了吗？

You know what just popped in?

你唱你的卡拉OK歌。

You singing your song your karaoke song.

所以每年都是这样吗？每年这个时候？

So every year is it every year at this point?

这是个传统吗？

Is it a tradition?

能这么说吗？

Can we call it that?

为了什么？

For what?

为了你的卡拉OK。

For your karaoke.

嗯，过去两年我都唱了。

Well, the last two years I've done it.

对。

Yes.

好。

Okay.

所以现在这算是个惯例了。

So so it's a thing now.

所以本的拿手歌是……本是个超级TC迷。

So Ben's go to song is Ben's a big TC guy.

是《失去那种爱的感觉》还是那种爱……

It's has it lost that loving feeling or that loving

《失去那种爱的感觉》。

lost that loving feeling.

挺有意思的。

It's funny.

我孩子们，我们昨晚在聊天。

My kids, we were talking last night.

你最喜欢的电影是什么？

What's your favorite movie?

我说，可能是《壮志凌云》。

And I said, it's probably Top Gun.

你给他看那个视频了吗？

Did you show him the video?

没有，我没看。

No, I didn't.

你会吗？

Would you?

不会。

No.

你做得很好。

You did very well.

我是说，你是个内向的人，但一拿起麦克风，天哪，你就像布兰妮·斯皮尔斯一样。

I mean, you are you're an introvert, but on the mic, my god, you're like Britney Spears out there.

我全力以赴了。

I gave it my I gave it my bet.

当然，我喝了点酒壮胆，所以那也有帮助。

Obviously, I had some liquid courage going, so that helped.

那真的很令人印象深刻。

It was very impressive.

是的。

Yes.

气氛非常高涨。

Vibes were very high.

每个人都在唱卡拉OK。

Everyone was doing karaoke.

有朋友在低处，还有所有的小事。

There were some friends in low places and all the small things.

美好的时光。

Good times.

所以很有趣，大家总是说推特是社交媒体里最大的污水池，在很多方面确实如此。

So it's funny, everyone always says that post like, Twitter is like the biggest cesspool in the world of social media, and obviously in a lot of ways it's true.

但你有没有在领英上逛过？

But have you ever waded into LinkedIn before?

没有。

No.

所以我在上面发一些东西，嗯，

So I was on I post some stuff on Well,

不是，我是说，你说的“逛”是什么意思？

mean, not no, but what do what do you mean by waded in?

就是在领英上刷帖子。

Just like done a scroll of the posts on LinkedIn.

不太算。

Not really.