如果你有300万美元，你会怎么做？（第451期）

我没买。

I didn't buy it.

但我问乔什，你怎么看？

But I said to Josh, what are your thoughts?

已经没有卖家了。

Like, there's no more sellers.

对吧？

Right?

这只股票跌了70%，过去四个月一直在横盘。

Like, the stock is down 70%, and it's gone sideways for the last four months.

它已经企稳了。

It's stabilized.

我不太明白心理上是什么原因。

I don't know what it is about psychologically.

对我来说，定期定额买入一只亏损的股票，比买入一只上涨的股票感觉更好。

For me, dollar cost averaging into a losing name feels better than dollar cost averaging into a winning name.

这这这这完全与你应该做的背道而驰。

It's it's it's the it's backwards of what you should do.

这与你应该做的背道而驰。

It's backwards of what you should do.

所以，不管怎样，我不这么做，我不那样做。

So, anyway, I don't do it I don't do that.

我不会在下跌的股票上采用定投策略。

I do not dollar cost average into a falling knife.

我只是不会买入一只正在下跌的股票。

I just I don't into a stock that's going down.

不好意思。

Excuse me.

好吧。

Alright.

但是当有一只像微软这样的股票，或者一篮子像软件股那样正在下跌的股票时。

But when there was a a stock like Microsoft or a basket of stocks like software stocks that are going down.

对吧？

Right?

然后会出现呕吐式抛售、恐慌性抛售和清算，从成交量上就能看出来，这种时候正是我买入的时机。

And then there is a puke, a panic, a liquidation where you see it in the volume, that's the type of thing that I buy.

这并不是说软件股在上周四见底了。

And it's not to say that, like, software stocks bottomed last Thursday.

所以我上周四买了IGV。

So I bought IGV last Thursday.

最初，我是把它当作一笔交易来买的。

And initially, I bought it for a trade.

所以我的本意是，想象一个浮标。

So my intention was think about, like, a buoy.

对吧？

Right?

就像一个被长期按在水下的浮标，被彻底压到最底下，然后突然弹起来。

Something that, like, floats where it's just been held underwater for so long and just pushed all the way down.

它会反弹回来。

It's going to pop back up.

你甚至不需要买家进场，所需的一切都已具备。

All that you need you don't even need buyers to step in.

你只需要卖家冷静下来。

You just need sellers to chill out.

当像周四那样在一批股票中出现恐慌时，这就是我买入的类型。

And when there was a panic like there was on Thursday in a basket of stocks like that, that's the type of thing that I buy.

毫无疑问。

No question.

你有时间可以等待。

You have time to produce.

所以我说你等等。

So I give you hold on.

我不是

I'm not

在想胜利游行。

thinking victory lap.

这并不总是对的。

It's not it's not always right.

但当我看到像那样的恐慌时，我必须买入。

But when I see, like, a panic like that, I have to buy.

在大约四个月的时间里，它下跌了33%，所以我们得谈谈为什么会这样。

It was down 33% over the course of, I don't know, four months, so we gotta talk about why this is happening.

《华尔街日报》有一篇文章基本上说，Anthropic拖垮了软件市场。

So Wall Street Journal had an article basically saying, like, Anthropic tanked the software market.

比如，Anthropic推出了Claude、Claude Code、Claude Agents等一系列产品，人们都惊呆了。

Like, Anthropic came out with Claude, Claude Code, Claude Agents, all this stuff, and people go, woah.

这会彻底改变软件股票市场的走向吗？

Is this totally changing what is going to happen in the software stock market?

我的看法是，人们终于意识到，如果AI泡沫不破裂会怎样？

And my my take on this is this is people finally waking up to the potential of what if the AI bubble doesn't pop?

比如，如果AI能立刻发挥作用呢？

Like, what if AI just works right away?

然后我们的生产力提高了。

And we get more productivity.

当然，会有一些失败者。

And, yeah, sure, there's losers.

对吧？

Right?

记得最初，微软和OpenAI是赢家。

Remember at first, it was Microsoft and OpenAI are the winners.

现在感觉谷歌和Anthropic成了赢家。

Now it feels like Google and Anthropic are the winners.

我不知道这会不会改变，但当然会有一些失败者。

I don't know if that'll change or not, but there's gonna be losers, of course.

但如果这些AI技术真的奏效，并且真正颠覆了这个科技领域呢？

But what if, like, this AI stuff is working and it actually disrupts this technology field?

所以Salesforce和其他这些软件公司股价都下跌了，IGV，是的，上涨了33%，微软下跌了大约25%，显然这里感觉有巨大的过度反应，但我不想贸然介入并对此做出斩钉截铁的论断，因为如果我今天早上对你和乔什说了这番话会怎样。

And so Salesforce sold off and all these other software companies, and IGV, yeah, was up 33%, Microsoft was down 25% or so, and obviously it feels like there is a huge overreaction here, but I would not wanna try to jump in and make, like, a pounding the table on this because what if I I said this to you and Josh this morning.

如果只是这些软件，是的。

What if it's just these softwares that yes.

人们不会完全用自己编写的AI代码来彻底取代他们的CRM系统。

People aren't gonna just code in their own stuff in AI totally get rid of their CRM system.

这在我看来似乎有点牵强。

Like, that that to me seems like a a stretch.

但是，是的。

But Yes.

这些股票会不会因为这个原因而被永久性地重新估值？

Could could these could these stocks be rerated forever because of this?

我认为这是一种可能性。

I think that's a possibility.

因为它们的护城河在某种程度上已经受损，这将是作为长期投资者投资这些公司时让我担忧的地方。

Like, because their moat has been damaged in some ways, that's what would what would worry me about diving into these names for being a long term investor.

好的。

Okay.

所以，为了回到这个交易例子，给几位对此感兴趣的朋友们。

So so just to just to return to the to the trading example for the few of you who are interested in this.

Adobe的股票已经下跌了50%，大概是这个幅度。

So Adobe, the stock was already down 50%, six whatever it was.

Adobe在2024年2月曾达到630美元，或者640美元的高点，而股价最低跌到了3.15美元。

Adobe Adobe peaked at $6.30, okay, or $6.40 in February 2024, and the stock got as low as $3.15.

好吧。

Alright.

所以股价直接腰斩了。

So the stock was cut in half.

我和Josh在讨论这只股票。

So Josh and I were talking about the stock.

它一直横盘整理。

It had gone sideways.

买家在3.30美元处开始进场。

Buyers were stepping in at $3.30.

我们尝试出手买入。

We tried to take a stab at it.

股价反弹后急剧回落，我们俩都卖出了。

The stock bounced and then rolled over violently, and we both sold.

我亏损了3%到4%。

I took a a three or 4% loss.

没什么大不了的。

No big deal.

股价从3.30美元急剧下跌至2.63美元。

The stock sold off violently from $3.30 down to $2.63.

当你逆流而行时，市场通常是对的。

So when you're fighting the tide, the market is usually right.

市场并非100%的时间都100%正确。

The market is not 100% right 100% of the time.

但当一只股票下跌了50%，你却盲目地试图买入时，你很可能错了。

But when a stock is down 50% and you're just blindly trying to buy it, you're probably going to be wrong.

而且这只股票根本没有任何反弹。

And this stock hasn't bounced at all.

很多股票在周五都反弹了。

A lot of stuff bounced on Friday.

但Adobe没有。

Adobe has not.

Adobe确实没有反弹。

Adobe has not bounced.

所以这就是为什么，当我买入这类股票时，我的基本假设是我错了，因此我会设置严格的止损。

So just so that's why, like, my working assumption when I buy names like this is I'm wrong, and I keep a tight stop.

对吧？

Right?

也许你对了，也许吧。

Maybe you get a maybe you're right.

但是，不管怎样，上周我们太忙了，不是要老调重弹，而是因为新闻太多，我们忘记提一个重大新闻了。

But, like, anyway, last week we were so busy, not to belabor the point, with news that we forgot to mention a huge piece of news.

是的，所以上周的故事从‘反人类法程序’演变成了‘天哪’。

So, yes, last week was the story morphed from the claw the anthropic law program to, oh my god.

就像，这种氛围编码是认真的。

Like, this is vibe coding is serious.

所有这些企业SaaS公司，都像是陷入了大麻烦。

All of these enterprise SaaS names are, like, in deep trouble.

也许不是今天，但三年后，他们的利润率就完蛋了。

Maybe not today, but in three years, their margins are dead.

就像，增长已经消失了，我们只是要搞垮这些股票，我们反应过度了。

Like, the growth is gone, and we're just we're just gonna kill the stocks, and we're overreacting.

好吧。

Fine.

好的。

Okay.

但在那之前，前一周微软发布财报时，我们上一期甚至都没提到微软吗？

But prior to that, the week before, when Microsoft reported, which I don't even do we even talk about Microsoft last episode?

没有。

No.

有太多东西在崩盘了。

So much stuff is crashing.

我们错过了这件事。

We we missed it.

好吧。

Okay.

根据彭博社的消息。

So from Bloomberg.

微软股价在周四的抛售中暴跌，市值蒸发了3570亿美元。

Microsoft shares got caught up in a sell off Thursday that wiped out $357,000,000,000 in value.

这是股票市场历史上单日第二大市值蒸发。

The second largest for a single session stock market history.

这家软件巨头的股价下跌了10%，这是自2020年3月以来最大的跌幅。

The software giant stock closed down 10%, its biggest plunge since March 2020.

唯一一次比这更大的市值损失是NVIDIA在DeepSeek抛售期间的下跌。

The only bigger market cap loss was NVIDIA on the DeepSeek sell off.

这种情况已经持续了好几个月、好几个星期了。

So this has been going on for for months and weeks.

而且，是的，上周就像是，好吧。

And and, yeah, last week, was like, okay.

软件怎么了？

What's happening with software?

软件的未来是什么？

What's the future of software?

投资者也不知道。

And investors don't know.

这些公司的员工也不清楚。

The people at these companies don't know.

风险投资人也搞不清楚。

The venture people don't know.

未来学家们也不知道。

The the futurists don't know.

就像，没人知道。

Like, nobody knows.

是的。

No.

但是，不过我认为这种过度反应对我来说是合理的。

But it's but I think the the overreaction to me makes sense.

完全同意。

Totally.

这这这，我我我，但问题是接下来会发生什么，无论这些公司是否受到永久性影响，我想这些公司中的大多数，可能最终会没事的。

It it it I I I but here's the thing that's gonna happen, Whether this like, whether these companies are impacted forever, like, I imagine these companies, most of them, will probably be okay.

嗯，这取决于你具体指的是哪些公司。

Well, it depends which companies you're talking about.

嗯，确实如此。

Well, true.

我...我是在概括性地谈论。

I I'm blumping that in.

但即使它们能挺过去，这些公司也将会出现大规模裁员。

But even if they are, like, there's gonna be there's gonna be huge layoffs in these companies.

它们无法继续向员工提供股票期权了。

They can't continue to give stock options to their employees.

比如，如果你在这些公司之一工作，你现在肯定会非常紧张。

Like, there's gonna if you work in one of these companies, you would have to be very nervous right now.

将会出现大规模裁员。

There's gonna be huge layoff.

而这就是那种情况，由于人工智能将会出现裁员，人们会认为这是经济衰退的指标，但其实不是。

And this is one of those things where there there are going to be layoffs because of AI that people are gonna think this is a recessionary indicator, and it's not.

这将会是……这种人工智能将会打破过去的经济指标。

It's gonna be a this this AI is gonna break economic indicators of the past.

由于这个生产力工具，将出现软件行业的裁员。

There's gonna be software layoffs because of this productivity tool.

人们会离开，对吧？

And people gonna go right?

Square，现在称为Block，杰克·多西的公司，正在裁员10%。

Square, now called Block, Jack Dorsey's company, is laying off 10% of their workforce.

好的。

Alright.

PitchBook对这些公司的情况有一个非常好的分析，我认为。

So PitchBook had a really good take, I think, on on these names.

更换一个核心的SaaS平台，对企业来说就像开胸手术，会带来巨大的运营阻力。

Replacing a core SaaS platform effectively is open heart surgery for an enterprise, entailing immense operational friction.

在现有系统中添加一个AI协作者，远比完全迁移到一家AI初创公司要容易得多。

It's far easier to add an AI copilot to existing operations than to fully migrate to an AI startup.

我觉得这完全正确。

I think that's totally true.

是的

Yeah.

而且我也认为这种过度反应也是有道理的。

And I also and I also think that the overreaction makes sense too.

这是本·汤普森。

So here here's Ben Thompson.

本，我来念一下，因为你正在打电话。

Ben, I'll read this since you're on

的电话。

the phone.

他对此事一直非常关注。

He's been all over this.

他周五的播客完全围绕软件展开，非常出色。

His his podcast on Friday was all about software and was excellent.

如果你是订阅者，绝对值得一听。

Totally worth a listen if you're a subscriber.

所以本·汤普森写了一个名为Stratechery的子堆栈。

So Ben Thompson writes a sub stack called Stratechery.

我觉得你和我都曾说过‘tetchery’。

I think you and I have been known to say tetchery.

是的。

Yeah.

我不太确定为什么。

I'm not quite sure why.

Stratechery。

Stratechery.

这就像Bababooey说‘McKine’一样，你可能不是霍华德·斯特恩的粉丝，但对那些在听的人，你们会明白的。

That's like when Bababooey said McKine, which you're not a Howard Stern fan, but for those of you who are listening, you'll understand.

好吧。

Alright.

以下是本·汤普森说的话。

Here's what Ben Thompson said.

AI编写代码的美妙之处在于，它完美契合了概率性输入与确定性输出的特性。

The beauty of AI writing code is that it is a nearly perfect match of probabilistic inputs and deterministic outputs.

代码必须能够实际运行，而运行中的代码可以被测试和调试。

The code needs to actually run, and that running code can be tested and debugged.

鉴于这种契合，我认为，尽管软件架构师的角色在一段时间内仍很重要，但绝大多数软件最终都将由AI编写，这只是一个时间问题。

Given this match, I do think it is only a matter of time before the vast majority of software is written by AI, even if the role of the software architect remains important for a bit longer.

这引出了任何软件公司最明显的看跌观点。

That then raises the most obvious bear case for any software company.

既然你可以让AI为你量身定制一个完全符合需求的应用程序，那为什么还要花钱购买软件呢？

Why pay for software when you could just ask AI to write your own application perfectly suited to your needs?

软件在未来会不会变成一种完全的商品，从而失去商业可行性？

Is software going to be a total commodity and a nonviable business model in the future?

这正是投资者今天在问的问题。

That's what investors are asking today.

好的。

Alright.

回到本的话题。

Back to Ben.

我对此持怀疑态度，原因有多个。

I'm skeptical for a number of reasons.

首先，公司，尤其是美国公司，非常擅长专注于自己的核心能力。

First, companies, particularly American ones, are very good at focusing on their core competency.

而对于世界上大多数公司来说，软件并不是它们的核心能力。

And for most companies in the world, that isn't software.

大多数公司选择向其他公司购买软件是有原因的，而这个最根本的原因不会因为AI而改变。

There is a reason most companies pay other companies for software, and the most fundamental reason to do so won't change with AI.

其次，编写原始应用程序只是开始。

Second, writing the original app is just the beginning.

之后还有维护、安全补丁、新功能，以及不断变化的标准。

There's maintenance, there are security patches, there are new features, these are changing standards.

开发一个应用程序意味着承诺踏上一段永无止境的旅程，一段不断回到起点的旅程，而这与公司的核心能力毫无关系。

Writing an app is a commitment to a never ending journey, a journey to return to point one that has nothing to do with the company's core competency.

第三，销售软件不仅仅是销售代码。

And third, selling software isn't just about selling code.

还有技术支持。

There is support.

还需要与其他软件集成。

There are integrations with other software.

还有合规性要求。

There's compliance.

真正有价值的东西远不止代码本身。

The list of what is actually valuable goes far beyond code.

这就是为什么公司不使用纯粹的开源软件。

This is why companies don't run purely open source source software.

他们要的不是代码。

They don't want code.

他们要的是包含所有相关服务在内的完整产品。

They want a product with with everything that entails.

然而，这并不意味着代码不是由AI编写的。

Still, that doesn't mean the code isn't being written by AI.

软件公司本身将是AI编写代码的最大受益者。

It's the software companies themselves that will be the biggest beneficiaries of end users of AI writing for code.

换句话说，就AI编写代码这一狭隘问题而言，我认为软件公司并非输家，而是赢家。

In other words, on this narrow question of AI written code, I would contend that software companies are not losers, but rather winners.

他们将能够更高效、更快速地编写更多代码。

They'll be able to write more code more efficiently and quickly.

我的意思是，你觉得我们会放弃我们的CRM系统，让某个25岁的‘氛围编程’新手来为我们开发吗？

Well, I mean, do you think do you think we would give up on our CRM system and let, like, some vibe coding 25 year old write it for us?

不会。

No.

我们是一家受监管的公司。

We're we're a regulated company.

是的。

Yeah.

合规性是这样，但我想重点是，这里的护城河已经被削弱了，未来会出现一些软件公司，它们不需要那么多员工，而是让AI编写代码，再由人来监督。

The compliance but I think the point is that the moat has been damaged here, and, like, there's gonna be software companies that spring up that don't need as many employees that can write have AI write the code and have someone oversee it.

关键在于，护城河受到了巨大冲击。

And that's the big thing is the moat has taken a massive hit.

没错。

Exactly.

没错。

Exactly.

所以，本最后谈到了这个问题——不是这个本，是本·汤普森。

So that's so and then Ben concludes with the problem not this Ben, Ben Thompson.

然而，现在的问题是，虽然企业不会放弃软件，但也不一定愿意购买更多。

The problem now, however, is that while businesses may not give up on software, they don't necessarily want to buy more.

相反，他们需要削减开支，以便为自己的代币留出更多资金。

If anything, they need to cut their spending so they have more money for their own tokens.

这意味着，这些公司的增长前景备受质疑，我认为整个行业的重新估值完全合理。

That means the growth story for all of these companies, in serious question, the industry wide rerating seems completely justified to me.

我完全同意。

And I could not agree more.

比如，像Salesforce这样的公司，我们一直与之合作了十多年。

So for example, a company like Salesforce that we work with and we have worked with for for a decade.

你们猜他们每年做什么？

Guess what they do every year?

他们每年都会提高费用，而且可能觉得我们只是个特例。

They raise their fees, and they can imagine that we're a one off.

我们并不是一个非常独特的客户。

We're not a very unique business.

这种日子结束了。

That's over.

没错。

Right.

要不我们直接说，你知道吗？

How about we just say, you know what?

不。

No.

对吧？

Right?

我们会进行谈判，但我们的议价能力有限。

And we negotiate, but we only have so much leverage.

所以，是的，重新评级在长期来看是合理的，但短期内可能过度了。

And so, yeah, the rerating both makes sense in the long term and simultaneously can be overdone in the short term.

是的。

Yes.

我觉得我就停在这里。

I think that's where I'm at.

管他呢。

And whatever.

这些股票中有一两只在经历这一切后会成为绝佳的长期投资，而很多则会变成烂摊子。

One or two of these stocks is gonna look like an amazing long term deal after all this, and a bunch of them are gonna look like dogs.

那这就是我的观点。

That'd be my Yeah.

要点。

Takeaway.

好的。

Alright.

我一直算是某种程度上为一些私人信贷产品辩护，我想这么说。

So I have been I have been a relative defender, I would say, to some of the private credit stuff.

我觉得我已经相当公平了。

Think I've been pretty fair.

你一直在试图让那些人冷静下来，别因为讨厌它就疯了，觉得它一定会崩盘，没错。

You've been trying to get people off of, like, just going crazy because they hate it and it's gonna be a crash and yes.

是的。

I Yeah.

我不确定，比如很多‘蟑螂’类的东西，我的看法是，听好了，有时候贷款确实会违约。

Don't know Like so a lot of the cockroach stuff, my take was like, listen, sometimes loans go bad.

有时候会有欺诈行为。

Sometimes there's fraud.

它并不总是存在。

It's not there.

这不仅仅发生在私人市场中。

And it's not just in private markets.

好的。

Okay.

这对私人信贷来说很棘手，因为它们贷款给的很多企业都是SaaS公司。

This this is this is tricky for private credit because a lot of the businesses that they lend money to are SaaS businesses.

为什么？

Why?

这些企业有持续的收入。

These are recurring revenue.

这是可预测的。

This is predictable.

这很容易建模。

It's easy to model.

哎呀。

Uh-oh.

好的。

Okay.

《华尔街日报》。

Wall Street Journal.

近年来，私募投资公司大量涌入软件行业。

Private investment firms have piled into the software industry in recent years.

去年年底，近9%的私募股权支持的公司属于软件领域。

At the end of last year, almost 9% of private equity backed companies were in the software space.

在贷款方面，这种风险敞口更加显著。

The exposure is even more significant on the loan side.

在私人信贷领域，该公司将此归类为KBRA。

Within the private credit universe, the firm classifies this is KBRA.

大约70%的借款人是软件公司，占整个领域超过一万亿美元债务敞口的22%。

About 70% of borrowers are software companies, representing about 22% of the 1,000,000,000,000 plus debt exposure in that universe overall.

天哪。

Yikes.

所以昨天我跟这个领域里的一家公司聊了聊，我问：这些贷款的期限是多久？

So I spoke to one company yesterday in this universe, and I said, what's the what's the duration of these loans?

他们说，对我们来说，是四到五年。

And they said, for us, it's four to five years.

我心想：呃……

And I went, eee.

所以，好吧。

So, like alright.

上周，所有上市的BDC股价都暴跌了。

So all the publicly traded BDCs just murdered last week.

彻底崩盘。

Absolutely destroyed.

ARCC，即阿雷斯商业发展公司。

ARCC, which is the Ares Business Development Corp.

这基本上是流动性较强的私人信贷，而且是最大的一只。

And this is basically liquid private credit, and it's the biggest one.

我觉得规模大约是150亿美元左右。

I think it's 15,000,000,000, something like that.

所以就在他们的官网上，写着软件和服务。

So right on their website, software and services.

但我不清楚这其中有多少是属于横向SaaS公司，这些公司正处于风暴中心。

Now I don't know how much of this is horizontal SaaS companies, which is really in the eye of the storm.

又有多少是垂直领域的，我猜测后者表现会稍好一些。

How much is vertical, which I suspect will fare a little bit better.

但软件和服务占投资组合的24%。

But it's 24% of the portfolio.

天哪。

Yikes.

所以投资者显然正在抛售的不仅是BDCs，还有私募股权管理公司。

So investors are obviously selling down the not just the BDCs, but, like, the private equity managers.

所以Luau下跌了50%。

So Luau is down 50%.

这并不令人意外。

That's not a surprise.

黑石、KKR、阿波罗都下跌了，我不知道，大约30%。

Blackstone, KKR, Apollo are all down, I don't know, 30%.

这些公司也受到了重创。

These are getting hammered too.

对我来说，黑石简直是绝佳的买入机会。

So to me, the like, Blackstone is a screaming buy.

我没有持有它，但我认为这被过度打压了。

I don't own it, But I think, like, that is way overdone.

好的。

Okay.

因为它们比……更大且更多元化

Because just because they're bigger and more diverse than

我得说一下。

I have to say it.

这不是投资建议。

Not investment advice.

好的。

Okay.

所以黑石被卷入了软件领域的事情。

So Blackstone getting caught up in the software stuff.

我的意思是，我明白。

I mean, like, I get it.

我理解投资者为什么这么做。

I get why investors are doing that.

但这也太过分了吧。

But come on.

这是，这是我认为将成为长期趋势中的最大赢家。

This is this is the biggest winner in what my estimation is gonna be a secular trend.

好吧。

Alright.

等等。

So Wait.

我知道，我知道看到事物崩溃并不好玩，因为人们拥有这些东西，尤其是这些公司的员工。

I know I know it's not fun to see things crash because that people own these things and peep especially people who work at these companies.

比如，那里肯定有很多动荡。

Like, there there that's gotta be a lot of turmoil.

我认为从市场角度来看，AI最有趣的地方在于这种洗牌。

I think the most interesting thing about the AI from a market's perspective is this reshuffling of deck chairs.

每个月，每隔几个月，都像是，哦天哪。

Every month, every couple months, it's like, oh my gosh.

现在轮到这边了。

Over here now.

等等。

Wait.

看这边。

Over here.

这非常令人兴奋。

It's very exciting.

我得说，看着这些事情实时发生，是这个市场更有趣的部分之一。

It's it's it's one of the more fun parts about this market, I would say, watching this stuff happen in real time.

好的。

Alright.

所以我们提到过，比如，有一些横向软件公司，它们的软件服务于许多不同的行业。

So we mentioned, like, there's horizontal software companies where there's a piece of software that serves a lot of different industries.

所以它们并没有真正的专业特长。

So they don't there's no real special specialization.

我是说软件，比如Salesforce。

Software I mean, Salesforce, for example.

对吧？

Right?

比如，他们与金融服务行业合作，而且我敢肯定他们也与世界上的其他所有行业合作，这与那些只专注于一个垂直领域的公司不同。

Like, they work with financial services, and I'm sure they work with every other industry in in the world as opposed to a company that only works in one vertical.

我引用了这个——我这是从哪里引用的？

So I pulled this where did I pull this from?

我想这又是来自PitchBook的数据。

I think this is PitchBook again.

顺便说一下，PitchBook正在全面追踪这一趋势。

PitchBook is doing is all over this this trend, by the way.

所以他们当时在讨论软件私募信贷贷款的投资者SAO。

So they were talking about investor SAO on software private credit loans.

好的。

Alright.

纽约市停车场公司GMC的一位发言人解释说，该公司最近终止了与一家停车场管理软件提供商长达数年的合同，因为该提供商停止提供某些功能。

A spokesman for New York City parking garage company, GMC, explained that the company had recently ended a multiyear contract with a parking garage management software provider after it stopped providing certain features.

相反，GMC聘请了一名程序员来开发一个定制系统，以更高效地管理该公司在纽约市瓦利的停车场。

Instead, GMC hired a programmer to develop a bespoke system that will organize the company's New York City Valley parking garages more efficiently.

引述：现在我们不会再受制于另一家公司的价格上涨。

Quote, now we won't be subject to another company's price hikes.

他们拥有全部话语权，因为他们知道客户非常依赖这套系统。

They have all the leverage that they know the customers really rely on it.

PitchBook进一步表示，但这肯定不会适用于所有情况。

PitchBook goes on to say, but it's but it certainly won't certainly won't work for all.

一家媒体公司的高管表示，他们根本不可能取消正在使用的内容管理系统，并补充说，关于软件深度问题的担忧被夸大了。

A media company executive said there was, quote, no chance of canceling the content management software system it used, adding that alarms about the depth of software were overblown.

这是个很好的双面观点。

That's a good both sides thing.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

上周我问过，是什么能阻止这列火车？

Last week, I asked, like, what stops this train?

是什么阻止利润率如此大幅上升？

What stops the margins from rising so much?

看起来超大规模云服务商们打算验证这个理论。

And it seems like the hyperscalers are gonna try to test this theory.

所以，根据美国银行Mike Siccardi的另一条推文，超大规模企业的资本支出占经营现金流的比例在2025年为65%，预计到2026年将高达90%。

So another Mike Siccardi tweet via bank of Bank of America, hyperscalers CapEx as a percentage of operating cash flow was 65% in 2025, expected to be as high as 90% in 2026.

而在2017年至2023年期间，这一比例是40%。

It was 40% from 2017 to 2023.

所以他们真的是在全力以赴。

So they are really going for it.

也许市场会有所反弹，但是，你知道，

And maybe the market pushes back, but, you know,

如果你不这么做，投资者绝不会允许90%的经营性现金流都用于资本支出。

if you don't no do this way there is no way that investors will allow 90% of the operating cash flow to be spent on CapEx.

我也是这么想的。

That would be my thinking too.

股价会崩盘。

The stocks will crash.

但他们说这并不是2026年的情况。

But they they're saying this isn't 2026.

这是现在正在发生的事。

This is right now.

今年就会发生。

This is going to happen this year.

所以你看一下他们已经公布的数字，还有他们的预期，这是来自推特上马特·文森特的说法。

So look at look at the numbers that they've and they've said in their, like, listen, their expectations, but this is from Matt Vincent on Twitter.

他说，到2026年，五大公司——亚马逊、谷歌、微软、Meta和甲骨文——将在现有基础上额外增加3140亿美元的资本支出。

He said 314,000,000,000 of incremental CapEx spend in 2026 on top of what they've already done from the big five, and that's Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle.

这相当于1.1个百分点的GDP增长，仅这五家公司就占了美国GDP总量的2%以上。

That's one point one percentage point of GDP growth and more than 2% of total US GDP from five companies in spending.

这些数字高得离谱。

These numbers are astronomically high.

所以，正如你所说，投资者什么时候会说够了？

So to your point, when when do investors say enough?

不。

No.

够了。

Enough.

我的意思是，我想他们其实已经表达了这种态度。

I mean, I guess they're kind of already saying that.

微软的股价已经下跌了25%。

Microsoft's down 25%.

所以这就像是市场突然来了个快速调整， snapping fingers 就是10%的跌幅，当其中一家公司说：好了，到此为止。

So this is like a a quick, like, snap your fingers 10 correction in the market when one of these companies goes, alright.

你说到点子上了。

You got us.

我们正在缩减开支。

We're pulling back.

对吧？

Right?

难道不是这样吗？

Isn't isn't that it?

这难道不是史上最快的市场调整吗？

Isn't that like the fastest correction ever?

你知道那个克兰斯顿梗图吗？

You know you know the Cranston meme?

是的。

Yeah.

但我不知道市场会对资本支出缩减作何反应。

But I don't know how the market will respond to a pullback of CapEx.

或者你觉得他们会以积极的方式看待这一点吗？

Or do you think they'll look that be looked at positively?

比如，好吧。

Like, okay.

太好了。

Great.

我真的不知道。

I I really don't know.

我也不知道。

I don't know either.

但这些数字，这就是为什么人工智能泡沫这么难以理解的原因。

But the the these numbers just this is this is why the AI bubble stuff is so hard to wrap your head around.

因为这些数字看起来太荒谬了，但当你看到正在发生的事情时，你会想，也许这并不荒谬，因为这种生产力确实会发生。

Like, because these numbers just seem so ridiculous, but then you see this stuff that's happening, and you go, well, maybe it's not ridiculous because this productivity is gonna it's gonna happen.

我不知道。

I don't know.

这是Bucco Capital发的一条很棒的推文。

This is this is a great tweet from Bucco Capital.

贾西在资本支出上投资太慢，被投资者嘲讽说‘多投点资本支出吧，你这个笨蛋’。

Jassy was too slow to invest in CapEx and got a wedgie from investors who said more CapEx, you loser.

于是他说，行吧。

So he said, fine.

想看看资本支出吗？

Wanna see CapEx?

我他妈给你看看什么叫资本支出，但现在人人都讨厌它了。

I'll fucking show you CapEx, but now everyone hates it.

好吧。

So alright.

亚马逊的资本支出。

CapEx for Amazon.

2025年，亚马逊的资本支出达到了1300亿美元。

2025 was a 130,000,000,000.

他们给出的指引是2000亿美元，这远高于七大巨头中的最高值。

They're guiding to 200,000,000,000, by far the highest of the max seven.

2000亿美元？

200,000,000,000?

什么？

What?

怎么做到的？

How?

你怎么花掉2000亿美元？

How do you spend $200,000,000,000?

这确实有点疯狂，他们甚至比Meta、微软和谷歌还要高，而且

It is kinda crazy that they're they're even higher than Meta and Microsoft and Google and

好的。

Okay.

现在从这个角度来想一想。

Now think about it from this point of view.

所有支出的产出将会变得极其疯狂。

The output of all of the spend is going to be so insane.

还记得我们上周展示的那个机器人亨利的视频吗？

Remember the video we showed last week of Henry the bot?

想想接下来会发生什么。

Like, think about what's coming.

我觉得我们太沉迷于股价和数字了，以至于忘了想想接下来会发生什么。

I think we're, like, so deep in the stock price and the numbers that we're like, think about what's coming.

这就是为什么，好吧。

And this is why alright.

换个角度看。

Zooming out.

我觉得很难对整个股市过于悲观。

Like, I think it's hard to get too bearish on the stock market overall.

但问题是，这些酷炫的工具到底是什么？

But well, the question is, but what is all these cool tools?

这到底怎么帮助利润底线呢？

How does it actually help the bottom line?

我是说，我明白。

That like, I get it.

Meta会获得更多广告，但问题就在这里。

Meta is gonna get more ads, but that's that's the thing.

那它到底怎么让这些公司赚更多钱呢？

Like, how does it actually give make more money for these companies?

那就是

That's

嗯，我相信他们知道自己在做什么。

the Well, hard I'm sure they know what they're doing.

他们真的吗？

Do they?

经典遗言啊。

Famous last words.

我是，是的。

I'm yeah.

老兄，我肯定他们有计划。

Dude, I'm sure there is a plan.

他们不是傻子。

They're not idiots.

他们不会因为喜欢把钱烧着玩，就花掉史上最多的钱。

They're not spending the most money in the history of the world because they because they just like lighting money on fire.

这些人并不笨。

These are not dumb people.

如果你摆出一副他们很蠢的表情的话。

And if you're making a face like they are.

得了吧。

Come on.

扎克伯格搞了元宇宙。

Zuckerberg did the metaverse.

他们真的把公司名字改了。

They literally changed the name of the company.

这些人并不总是对的。

These people are not always right.

好吧。

Okay.

那确实挺蠢的。

That was pretty dumb.

你这么说倒是把我难住了。

You do have me there.

但他们都是

But they're all

我知道。

I know.

你说得对。

You're right.

我们会从这件事中得到一些很酷的东西。

We're gonna get some cool stuff out of this.

我只想让斯嘉丽·约翰逊的声音钻进我的耳朵。

I just want Scarlet Johans into my ear.

我就想要这个。

That's all I want.

赶紧办成。

Make it happen.

嘿。

Hey.

把我的所有邮件都拿去处理一下。

Take all my emails and do

在软件崩溃、动量交易重新估值等各种事情之中，我的更大图景是，我们即将迎来一位新的美联储主席，他会降息。

My bigger picture amongst the software crash, amongst the rerating of the momentum trade and whatever whatever, we've got a new Fed chair coming in who's gonna cut.

消费者状况良好。

The consumer is fine.

有巨量的资本支出正在被投入。

There is giga gaga CapEx money being spent.

我的意思是，市场会好得很。

Like, market's gonna be just fine.

我不太想大声说出来，因为我和别人一样，都是在瞎猜。

And I hate to say that out loud because I'm making this up just like everybody else is.

但我想说的是，如果你现在感到紧张，觉得市场要崩盘了，我可不这么认为。

But I I guess I would just say, like, if you're, like, nervous right now and, like, uh-oh, like, this the market's about to fall out of bed, I don't say it.

当然，我也可能错了。

I could be wrong, of course.

市场正在变得更加广泛。

The market is broadening out.

嗯，那也是个因素。

Well, there's that.

我的意思是，谢谢。

I mean, thank you.

这才是关键点。

That's the key point.

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

就像，如果这个

Like, that's if if this

其他情况，你根本看不到这种现象，你在市场顶部时看不到这种情形。

other You don't you don't see that you don't see that at market tops.

如果你看到所有这些都没起作用，那你确实有理由担心。

If you saw all this stuff not working still, then I think you'd have you'd be rightful to to worry about stuff.

如果其他市场也在下跌，我早就说过无数次了。

If the rest of the market was rolling I've said this a million times.

如果在AI股票之前，其他市场就已经开始下跌，我就不会这么说。

If the rest of the market was rolling over before the AI stocks did, I would not be saying this.

我会开始感到紧张。

I would be getting nervous.

这还涉及到资金问题。

And this this is the money thing too.

来自《华尔街日报》的古恩詹。

So Gunjan from the Wall Street Journal.

今年资金大量流入科技以外的板块。

Wild inflows to sectors outside of tech this year.

今年前五周，非科技板块的基金吸引了创纪录的620亿美元资金流入。

Sector funds excluding tech have seen a record $62,000,000,000 in inflows in the first five weeks of the year.

为了让你有个概念，这比整个2025年流入的金额还要多。

To put that into context, that's more than they saw in all of 2025.

你在开玩笑吧？

Are you kidding me?

所以资金流向不仅仅是这些股票表现的问题。

So the money is also it's not just the performance of these things.

嘿。

Like, hey.

它们在反弹。

They're bouncing.

投资者注意到了，正在分散投资。

Investors are taking notice, and they're diversifying.

对。

Yeah.

所以你之前在节目中问我，为什么必需品股票会暴涨？

So when you asked me earlier in the show, like, why are staples mooning?

这是资金流动造成的。

It's it's flows.

是的。

Yes.

资金正在流入这些领域。

Money is going into them.

我觉得这挺有意思的。

I thought this is kind of interesting.

有一个叫ex mag的ETF，顺便提一下，他们因为行动早而受到赞誉。

The the there's an ETF ex mag, which, by the way, credits them for being early.

未来还会涌现更多。

There will be more popping up.

这是我唯一能找到的4.93美元的ETF。

This is the only $4.93 ETF that I could find.

而且资产，我的意思是，这不算多。

And assets are I mean, it's not a lot.

只有1250亿美元，但在资金真正开始流入之前，这几乎不算什么。

It's a 125,000,000, but it was like nothing until the flows have only really just started to come in.

而且它们在过去的三个月里像火箭一样起飞了。

And they've taken off like a rocket ship in the last three months.

是的。

Yeah.

天啊。

Holy cow.

好的。

Alright.

好的。

Alright.

另一个。

Another one.

检查一下，本。

Check, Ben.

市场检查一下，本。

Market check, Ben.

东海岸的价格是9.45美元。

It's $9.45 on the East Coast.

哦，标普指数持平。

Oh, S and P is flat.

同样，它上涨了23个基点。

Equally, it's up 23 basis points.

节奏继续，本。

The beat goes on, Ben.

好的。

Alright.

小盘股略微上涨。

Small caps up a little bit.

好的。

Alright.

上周，我谈到了新兴市场的理由是什么？

So last week, I talked about, like, what is the case for EM?

为什么新兴市场和国际股票会持续跑赢？

Like, why would EM and international stocks keep outperforming?

这是来自《经济学人》的文章，讨论美元可能还有下跌空间，文中大量谈到避险地位，我认为美元从高点下跌了约12%。

And this is from The Economist, why the dollar may have further to fall, And it talks a lot about, like, the safe haven status, and and I think the dollar is down 12% from the highs or something.

文章指出，十七年前，外国政府和央行持有的债务证券占所有投资于美国资产组合的38%。

It says seventeen years ago, debt securities held by foreign governments and central banks accounted for 38% of all portfolios invested into America.

如今，这一比例降至13%，为现代历史上的最低水平。

Today, it's 13%, the lowest level in modern history.

所以，海外投资者不再像以前那样持有大量美国国债，这影响了美元。

So, like, the overseas are not owning as many treasury bonds like that, and that impacts the dollar.

文章还提到，目前没有任何其他资产看起来准备取代美元的储备货币地位。

And it says, like, there's no rival asset that looks ready to supplant the dollar's reserve currency.

而且我完全同意这一点。

Like and I totally agree with that.

但对美元的需求可以出现波动，即使没有出现任何真正的挑战者。

But demand for greenbacks can ebb and meaningful flow ebb and flow without any serious challenger emerging.

因此，文章指出，美国避险地位的持续削弱，加上对政策和央行独立性的不确定性，意味着美元的吸引力越来越依赖于美国资产能否优于世界其他地区，而这种基础对于维持投资者忠诚度来说是脆弱的。

So it says the ongoing erosion of America's safe haven status together with uncertainty over policy and independence of the central bank mean the dollar's appeal increasingly rests on the ability of American assets to outperform the rest of the world, that is a precarious base on which to build investor loyalty.

所以它的意思是，美元的走弱可能只是周期性的，并不意味着美元会崩溃或永久失去其全球储备货币地位，但我们可能正处于这样一个周期中，而这正是上周我们没谈到的新兴市场的看涨理由。

So it's saying like the dollar could just cyclically doesn't mean the dollar has to crash and go away forever and lose its global reserve currency status, but we could be in a cycle of that, and that's the that's the bull case for emerging markets last week that we didn't talk about.

我正在看EFA除以VTI的比率图，也就是发达国际市场对美国市场。

I'm looking at a ratio chart of EFA divided by VTI, so international developed divided by US.

天哪，老兄。

Whoo, man.

这看起来像是一个底部。

This looks like a bottom.

看起来像是真正的底部，过去几年里已经出现过很多假突破了。

Like, it looks like a real bottom, and there's been a lot of false starts over the years.

这次可能是真的发生了。

Could be the one happening.

可能正在发生。

It could be happening.

或者两年内，这只是一个短暂波动，但谁知道呢？

And or two two years, this is this is a blip, but, yeah, who knows?

我的天，我的脑子都炸了。

My mind is I mean, my mind is blown.

我们多年来一直在问，是什么会成为这个的催化剂？

We asked for years what would be the catalyst for this?

到底是什么能让这件事发生？

What could possibly make this happen?

这并不是随口一问。

And it wasn't like a rhetorical.

我们是认真的。

Like, we were serious.

我当时就在想，这到底会是什么？怎么会这样？

It was like, I can't what could what how?

接下来几周，我们将与景顺合作推出一档关于实物资产的节目，节目中提到的是：听着，人工智能的建设意味着我们需要更多的物资。

And so we have a talker book coming up in the coming weeks with Invesco about real assets, and the point made on that show was, listen, part of the AI build out means we need more stuff.

我们需要更多的能源。

We need more energy.

我们需要更多的体力劳动。

We need more physical labor.

我们需要更多的数据集。

We need more data set.

比如，我们正在建设所有这些设施。

Like, we we're building out all this stuff.

这对其他所有国家来说，在材料和工业方面都是利好消息，这很有趣。

That's, like, bullish for all these other countries still with the materials and the industrials, and it's interesting.

好的。

Alright.

我们来谈谈人工智能。

Let's talk about AI.

好的。

Alright.

本，看看我刚放进去的这张图表，就是我在关税话题结束前一直在讲的那个。

Ben, look at this chart that I just dropped in, that I was just talking over at the end of before tariffs.

哦，好的。

Oh, okay.

好的。

Okay.

所以就像你说的，它在那里横盘了几个月，现在开始起飞了。

So it it like you said, it flatlined for a number of months there, and then now it's taken off.

你看的是这个吗？

Is that what you're looking at?

它暴跌过，又恢复了，然后横盘整理，现在正在强劲加速。

It puked, recovered, went sideways, and is now accelerating very hard.

这看起来是真的。

This looks real.

确实如此。

It does.

好的。

Okay.

Kai Woo 刚发布了一篇新文章。

Kai Woo had a new piece out.