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今天的节目由YCharts赞助播出。
Today's show is sponsored by YCharts.
大多数顾问其实并不缺数据。
Most advisors don't have a data problem.
问题在于数据分散在太多不同的工具里。
The problem is that the data is spread across too many tools.
投资组合数据在一个系统里，客户笔记在另一个系统里，风险评估问卷又放在别的地方。
Portfolio data lives in one system, client notes in another, and risk questionnaires somewhere else.
所以准备会议的时候，就得在一大堆标签页之间来回切换。
So prepping for a meeting means clicking through a million tabs.
正因为这样，YCharts推出了风险与提案管理工具，让你在一个地方就能管理整个业务，不只是投资组合。
That's why YCharts built risk and proposal manager, a single place to manage your entire book of business, not just portfolios.
它按家庭来组织客户，能和你已经在用的工具对接，把业绩、风险和客户背景都整合到一个视图里。
It organizes clients by household, connects to the tools you already use, and brings performance risk and client context together in one view.
举个例子，你可以给潜在客户发一份风险评估问卷，根据他们的回答匹配风险等级，然后生成一份个性化的提案。
For example, you can send a prospect a risk questionnaire, map their answers to a risk profile, and turn that into a personalized proposal.
一旦他们成为客户，你就可以在同一个地方继续管理这段关系，完全不用离开YCharts。
Once they become a client, you can keep managing the relationship in the same place all without ever leaving YCharts.
点击节目笔记中的链接了解更多信息，并享受YCharts专业版首次订阅八折优惠，仅限新客户。
Click the link in the show notes to learn more and get 20% off your initial YCharts professional subscription, new customers only.
本期节目由Janus Henderson赞助，共同投资更光明的未来。
This episode is sponsored by Janus Henderson, investing in a brighter future together.
在Janus Henderson Investors，我们相信合作是更好的工作方式，将你的投资组合计划与我们的深度策略相结合，你的宝贵资产与我们的深刻见解相结合，你的使命与我们的愿景相结合。
At Janus Henderson Investors, we believe working together is the way to work better, by combining your portfolio plans in our in-depth strategy, your valued assets and our valuable insights, your mission, and our vision.
始终和谐共进，寻找合适的投资机会。
Always working in perfect harmony to find the right investment opportunities.
Janus Henderson Investors，共同投资更光明的未来。
Janus Henderson Investors investing in a brighter future together.
欢迎收听Michael和Ben的Animal Spirits节目。
Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben.
Michael，我有个问题想问你。
Michael, I have a question for you.
你说吧。
Go ahead.
市场如果想跌，它是有理由的。
The the market has an excuse to sell off if it wants it.
它会抓住这个机会吗？
Will it take it?
嗯，这是个好问题。
Well, that's a good question.
首先，系好安全带，做好准备。
First of all, strap it and stand by.
我们……
We've...
这是一份43页的文件，算是比较长的，所以我们大概要讲一个多小时，我估计。
This is a 43 page doc, which is on the longer side, so we're gonna go a buck 15, I say.
我觉得四十多分钟现在成了我们的常态了。
I feel like forties are forties are our new median.
现在让我快速过一遍。
Now let me let me run through them real quick.
就是……
Just...
我不是拿这些地方来比较，只是给大家展示一下。
I'm not comparing this to these places, but I'm just I'm just showing this.
是什么刺破了日本的泡沫？
What pricked the Japan bubble?
央行加息了。
Central Bank raised rates.
对吧？
Okay?
互联网泡沫时期，美联储也在加息。
Dotcom bubble, the Fed was raising rates.
1929年，美联储收紧了政策。
1929, the Fed tightened.
全球金融危机时，美联储也加息了。
GFC, the Fed raised rates into it.
对吧？
Okay?
现在大家都知道最大的风险是什么。
Everyone knows what the biggest risk is right now.
而且如果……
And if if...
市场不一定总是对的，但我觉得现在市场已经在预期美联储会把利率加到4.5%或5%左右。
The the market is not always right, but I think the market is expecting pricing in now, the Fed to raise rates to, like, four and a half or 5%.
如果市场想的话，它可以借此机会抛售。
If the market wanted to, it could use this to sell off.
它会这么做吗？
Will it do it?
不会。
No.
太容易了？
Too easy?
我的经验是，市场通常不会给你这么长的时间去退出。
My experience is that the market usually doesn't give you this long to get out.
这让我有点想起四月份，那时候我们盯着海峡关闭，股市每天都在小幅下跌。
That kind of reminds me a little bit of April where we're staring at the straight being closed, and the stock market is coming down just a little bit every day.
其实并不是……
It's not really...
没有那种1%、2%的大跌。
There's no 1%, 2% falls.
我们当时想，这不是黑天鹅吗？
We're like, I thought this was the black swan.
为什么股票没跌？
Why aren't stocks falling?
这里……
Here...
所以对我来说，感觉有点像是那样。
So it feels like that a little bit to me.
我觉得我描述当前市场环境的方式是，有很多怀疑，很多怀疑，但基本上没有恐惧。
I think that the way that I'm describing the current market environment is there's lot of doubt, lot of doubt, but basically zero fear.
让我来论证一下。
Let me make the case.
在怀疑这一栏里，这张图来自22年的研究，通过每日图表书。
In the doubt column, this chart is from '22 v research via daily chart book.
AI估值。
AI valuations.
上周我说，如果AI交易有一个典型代表，那就是英伟达，市盈率16倍……
Last week, I said if there's a poster child for the AI trade, it's NVIDIA at 16 times earnings...
前瞻市盈率。
Forward earnings.
是的。
Yep.
他们拉远了看，然后他们有一个AI价值……
Well, they zoomed out, and they they have an AI value...
一个篮子，一个精选的81家AI资本支出相关公司的组合，横跨12个市场板块，平均EV/EBITDA——你可以把它想成市盈率——是15倍，是它们2026年前历史平均水平的1.14倍。
A basket, a curated universe of 81 AI CapEx exposed companies spanning 12 market segments trades at an average EV to EBITDA, just think of it as like price to earnings, of of 15 times, which is 1.14 times their pre 2026 historical average.
所以AI交易已经没有任何溢价了。
So there's no premium in the AI trade anymore.
明白吗？
Okay?
所以有很多怀疑。
So a lot of doubt.
来自Duality Research的盈利与估值对比。
Earnings versus valuations from Duality Research.
今年只有必需消费品一个板块出现了估值扩张。
Only one sector, consumer staples, has seen multiple expansion this year.
其他的。
The rest.
太疯狂了。
Nut.
这张图真是疯了。
This chart is nuts.
好的。
Okay.
不只是科技股。
It's not just tech.
是所有东西。
It's everything.
VIX指数现在是16。
The VIX is at 16.
这里有个图表。
Have chart here.
再说一遍。
Again.
Duality 看了所有的行业。
Duality looked at all of the sectors.
好。
K.
那有多少个？
Well, how many are there?
12 还是 13？
12 or 13?
我觉得他们一直在加。
Think they keep adding some.
好。
K.
11。
11.
除了必需消费品，其他每一个行业今年都经历了估值收缩。
And every single one of them, but the consumer staples has seen a multiple contraction this year.
很多行业都是两位数的跌幅。
In many, it's double digits.
非必需消费品，两位数。
Consumer discretionary, double digits.
消费者服务，两位……
Consumer services, dub...
通信服务，也就是科技类，两位数。
Communication services, which is tech, double digits.
原材料，两位数。
Materials, double digits.
标普整体是两位数，科技和能源也都是两位数。
The S and P has a whole double digits, technology and energy, both double digits.
而必需消费品只涨了一点点。
And consumer staples is up a smidge.
涨幅不到1%。
It's up less than 1%.
所以这不仅仅是，哦，哇。
So it's not just like, oh, wow.
科技股。
Tech names.
而是所有板块。
It's everything.
所以到处都是估值压缩。
So multiple compression everywhere.
怀疑。
Doubt.
这是不恐惧的一面。
Here's the no fear side of it.
尽管市场下跌，VIX指数仍在16，这个我们稍后会讲到。
The VIX is at 16 despite the sell off, which we'll get to in a second.
来自JC。
From JC.
嗯，是抛售。
Well, sell off.
这是一次抛售。
It's a sell off.
来自JC。
From JC.
必需消费品和公用事业是股市中最具防御性的两个板块。
Consumer staples and utilities are two of the most defensive areas of the stock market.
我们都同意吧？
We would all agree?
是的。
Yes.
当投资者感到害怕时，他们通常会躲进这些板块。
When investors get scared, they often hide in these groups.
现在没人躲在那里。
Nobody's hiding there right now.
所以他有两张比率图，一张是必需消费品除以标普500，另一张是公用事业除以标普500，用来展示它们相对标普的表现。
So he has two charts of two ratio charts of consumer staples divided by the S and P to show how one is doing versus the other and utilities versus the S and P.
而这两张图都创下了多年来的新低。
And they're both at new multiyear lows.
现在市场有很多疑虑，但没有恐惧。
There is a lot of doubt, but there is no fear.
我们来聊聊这次抛售吧。
Let's talk about the sell off.
我们现在处于一个非常奇怪的市场环境，很多股票在下跌，但指数却接近历史高点。
We are in a very weird market dynamic where a lot of stocks are going down, and yet the index is near an all time high.
杰森·盖普福德指出，标普500指数距离新高只有1%的差距，但指数中超过70%的股票至少比高点下跌了10%。
Jason Geppford shows that the S and P has been holding within 1% of a new high, and yet more than 70% of stocks in the index are at least 10% below their highs.
过去三十年里，这种情况只发生过一次，那就是互联网泡沫破裂前夕。
The only other time that's happened over the last thirty years is right before the .com bubble burst.
不过
However
咚咚咚。
Dun dun dun.
但是，关键的是……
However, critically...
拜托，别急着看空。
Don't punt the bears, please.
关键的是，Duality Research 的研究显示，52周新低名单上的主要特征是，很多下跌都发生在公用事业、必需消费品和房地产板块。
Critically, duality research shows that the key distinction of the fifty two week low list is that a lot of the deterioration is happening in utilities and staples and real estate.
显然，不仅仅是防御性板块，还有那些对高利率敏感、受高利率拖累的板块。
Obviously, not just defensive sectors, but sectors that are exposed to higher interest rates in a bad way.
新低名单上的28只股票中，有21只来自公用事业、必需消费品和房地产板块。
21 of the 28 names on that new low list came from utility, staples, and real estate.
所以，这个市场充满了疑虑，但恐惧情绪却很少。
So it is a market that is full of doubt and also has very little fear.
你觉得这样解释合理吗？
Do you think that's a good way to explain it?
是的。
Yes.
嗯，有意思的是，标普……
Well, it's funny because the S and P...
我们这次录制比平时晚了一些。
We're recording this a little later than usual.
大概是周二下午，午饭时间。
Tuesday afternoon ish, lunchtime.
标普指数下跌了1.4%。
The S and P is down 1.4%.
就连小盘股也稍微有点走弱。
Even, like, small caps actually sound off a little bit.
小盘股大约跌了8%。
Small caps are around 8%.
什么相等？
What's equal?
等权重？
Equal weights?
我觉得等权重五年期吧。
Equal weights over five, I think.
好的。
Okay.
连纳斯达克都还没跌到2%。
Even the Nasdaq is not even down 2% yet.
所以你说得对。
So you're right.
就是说，这完全是反转了。
Like, it's it's totally a reversal of
等等，Ben。
Well, hold on, Ben.
如果你是选股的人，而且信不信由你，确实有很多人持有单只股票，其中很多人现在被打得头破血流。
If you if you are a stock picker, and believe it or not, there are people that own individual stocks, a lot of them that are getting their headbeats in.
嗯，我……
Well, I...
所以，我是在上周我们聊过Adam Parker那篇文章之后写的这个，那篇文章我读了，写得真的很好，你也提到了。
So I I wrote this after we talked last week about Adam Parker's piece, which I I read, which was really good that you talked about.
所以我决定用YCharts的数据来看一下。
So I I decided to look at this using YCharts data.
我这里有这些对比表，我看了年初至今的数据。
So I have these comp tables, and I looked at year to date.
标普指数今年至今还是涨了13%。
The S and P is up 13% still year to date.
有35%的股票跑赢了指数，但40%的股票，也就是每10只里有4只，今年在标普里是下跌的。
35% of stocks are outperforming the index, but 40% of stocks, four out of every 10 stocks is down this year in the S and P.
所以你说得对。
So you're right.
所以，今年下跌的股票数量，比在指数上涨两位数的情况下跑赢指数的股票还要多。
So more stocks are down this year and a double digit up year than are outperforming the index.
而且这一切都是……
And it's all...
而且大概有20只股票涨幅超过100%。
And there's, like, 20 stocks that are up a 100% or more.
所以现在市场非常集中。
So this is a very concentrated market now.
这挺有意思的。
So it is funny.
还是那些热门股，虽然它们已经不在最高点了。
It's it's still it's still...
还是那些热门股，虽然它们已经不在最高点了。
It's the memory names even though they're off their highs.
但今年我们已经经历了一整轮周期。
But we've gone through a whole cycle this year already.
我们经历了一个周期，当时其他股票都在涨，而七大科技巨头和那些大公司没涨，现在又回来了，它们已经……
We went through a cycle where all the other stuff was working in the mag seven and the big names weren't, and now it's come back and they've...
它们又开始涨了。
They're working again.
市场一直在来回波动。
It keeps going back and forth.
我想我之前说过，利率上升是股市下跌的一个很好的理由。
I guess the one thing I said, rising rates are a very good reason for the stock market to sell off.
唯一……
The only...
就是……
The way that
不，不是。
that No.
不是上升。
Not rising.
不是上升。
Not rising.
直接说吧。
Straight up.
是的。
Yes.
直线上升。
Going vertical.
那个……
The re...
所以，是的，十年期国债收益率从大约4%迅速升到5.2%。
So, yeah, the ten year went from, like, 4% to 5.2 in a hurry.
所以，要避免股市出现某种抛售或至少是回调，就得说，嘿，傻瓜。
So the way that this doesn't become some sort of equity route or at least correction from that is, well, hey, dummy.
它们上涨是因为我们相信AI交易。
They're rising because we believe in the AI trade.
我们相信AI会继续投入。
We believe that AI is gonna continue to spend.
超大规模企业会继续花钱。
Hyperscale is gonna continue to spend.
这会继续帮助盈利。
That's gonna continue to help earnings.
这就是为什么股市没有下跌。
That's why the stock market's not selling off.
那是因为我们认为经济增长会很强劲。
It's because we think economic growth is gonna be strong.
我本来打算稍后再说这个。
I was gonna get into this later.
他们有……
They have...
亚特兰大联储的GDPNow模型显示第三季度GDP增长率为5%。
The Atlanta Fed, GDP now has third quarter GDP coming in at 5%.
这个预测并不总是准确的。
That has not always been right.
我们之前也说过，这个预测以前就出过错。
We've shown before that it's been wrong in the past.
但如果它……
But if it's...
如果利率在加速，是因为那种“天哪”的感觉。
If rates are accelerating because it's like, oh my gosh.
这就是……
This is...
这个势头很猛。
This thing has legs.
这是一场经济繁荣。
It's an economic boom.
这就是为什么股市不会大跌。
That's why the stock market won't sell off.
那就是原因。
That'd be the reason.
不管发生什么……
Whatever happens...
我们总是这么说，但这是真的。
We always say this, but it's it's true.
不管怎么走，如果市场跌了10%，我们就会说，当然，利率涨疯了。
Whatever way it goes, if the market falls 10%, we go, of course, the rates rose like crazy.
如果市场继续涨，你就会说，当然，AI花钱花疯了。
If the market keeps going up, you go, of course, AI is spending like crazy.
事后看会非常明显。
It'll be very obvious with hindsight.
我倾向于认为你可能是对的，比我的理论更对。
I tend to think you're probably more right than than my theory.
股市没有规则，但我确实觉得一个很好的经验法则是，市场下跌时通常跌得很快。
There's no rules in the stock market, but I do think it's a pretty good shorthand that the market, when it falls, it generally falls fast.
很少见大家都说股市要跌。
It's unusual that everybody is like, stock market's gonna fall.
我们有时间撤出来。
We have time to get out.
股市要跌了。
Stock market's gonna fall.
还有时间撤出来。
Have time to get out.
说到规则，我这是在开玩笑呢。
It's Speaking speaking of rules, this is me having fun
总之，我可能大错特错，但我……
So anyway, I I I could be dead wrong, but I...
戴上我的预测帽，如果这波抛售在指数之下、市场之下过去，然后到年底前迎来一波反弹，我也不会感到意外。
Putting my timely hat on, I would not be surprised if we get past this this bout of selling underneath the the market, underneath the indexes, and you get a rip until the year end.
我可能错得很离谱。
I could be very wrong.
当然，我们走着瞧。
Obviously, we'll see.
所以股市是没有规则的……
So the the stock market not having rules...
因为如果你在2001年1月学金融，就像我大学上金融课的时候，利率越高，金融资产的现值就应该越低，尤其是长期风险资产。
Because if you learned finance 01/2001, like when I took finance classes in college, a higher interest rate should mean lower present value for financial assets, especially long duration risk assets.
利率越高，现值就越低。
The higher the interest rate, the lower the the present value.
这应该是显而易见的。
That should be obvious.
门槛利率更高了。
The hurdle rate's higher.
自从国债收益率在2020年3月触底以来，它们比股市先触底。
Since treasury yields bottomed in March 2020, they bottomed before the stock market did.
我觉得国债收益率大概在3月9号左右触底，低于50个基点。
I think the treasury rate bottomed, like, March 9 or something, below 50 basis points.
从那天起，标普500的年化涨幅是19%，而利率从0.5%涨到了5.2%。
Since that date, the S and P 500 was up 19% annualized since rates went from point 5% to 5.2%.
没有规则。
No rules.
这就是为什么没有规则。
This is why there's no rules.
这就是为什么没有规则。
This is why there's no rules.
你说得对。
You're right.
所以我发了那条推文，有点火了，但想想我们现在所处的状态，确实很奇怪。
So I I did this tweet, it kinda went a little crazy, but it's weird to think about the state that we're in.
房贷利率又飙到7%以上了。
Mortgage rates have shot way up past 7% again.
我们大概到了7.3%。
7.3%, I think we got.
失业率仍然在4%。
The unemployment rate is still at 4%.
债券收益率已经超过5%了。
Bond yields are above 5%.
现金收益率又回到4%了。
Cash yields are going back to 4%.
油价大概在每桶100美元左右，具体看是哪天看的。
Oil is around a $100 a barrel depending on the day you look at it.
油价高得离谱，每加仑5美元。
Gas prices are crazy high, $5 a gallon.
通胀率是3.5%。
Inflation is, three and a half percent.
股市创了历史新高。
All time highs in the stock market.
消费者信心却跌到了历史最低点。
All time lows in consumer sentiment.
现在比八十年代、新冠疫情和金融危机那会儿还要低。
We're lower now than we were in the nineteen eighties, COVID, the great financial crisis.
我知道。
I know.
但问题是这样的。
But here's the thing.
现在那些不重要的事情，如果股市下跌，人们就会开始更加恐慌。
The things that don't matter right now, people would start freaking out about them more if the stock market were to fall.
完全同意。
Totally.
好事。
Great thing.
比如人们不会为那些事情恐慌，至少像我们这样的市场人士不会，因为股市表现不错。
Like people people won't freak out about that stuff, at least market people like us, because the stock market is doing well.
确实如此。
That is true.
价格决定一切。
Price rules everything around me.
是的。
Yes.
你在证监会那边有什么消息？
What do got in the sec?
好的。
Alright.
我想再借这个机会多说几句，就是作为市场消费者，你得有多小心。
I wanna get on my soapbox one more time talking about, like, how careful you have to be as a market consumer.
作为一个听很多不同观点的人，你必须得小心。
As somebody who listens to a lot of different opinions, you have to be careful.
举个例子。
Exhibit a.
科技基金……
Tech funds...
科技基金的资金流入正在直线上升。
Tech fund flows are going straight up.
这是来自卡勒姆·托马斯的数据。
This is from Callum Thomas.
我们看的是科技股过去十二个月的滚动净ETF资金流入，这个数字简直高得离谱。
We're looking at the rolling twelve month net ETF flows of tech stocks, and it's off the charts.
我们从来没见过这种情况。
We've never seen anything like this.
与此同时，我们还有
Simultaneously, we have
这让我非常惊讶。
This is very surprising to me.
哪一部分？
Which part?
就是它把周期内其他时期远远甩在后面，差距太大了。
That it's it's it's dwarfed the other periods from the cycle by so much.
完全不是一个量级。
Not even close.
差不多是它的三倍那么大。
It's, like, triple the size.
数字是大了，但即便如此。
The numbers are bigger, but still.
就算你按百分比来标准化，也高得离谱。
Even if you normalize it as a percent, it's crazy high.
而且罗宾汉那边的散户买入量也接近历史最高。
We also have near record retail buying from Robinhood.
Sherwood 有一张图，显示罗宾汉交易者21天净买入单只股票的金额占历史最高值的百分比。
Sherwood has this chart showing the Robinhood traders net twenty one day single stock purchases as a percentage of the max, meaning the most that they've ever done.
他们就是以那个为基准的。
They're anchoring to that.
所以这两个都在试图让所有人都跳进来。
So these two are trying Everyone in the pool.
所有人都跳进来。
Everyone in the pool.
大家都在……
Everyone's...
好的。
Okay.
竖起天线。
Antenna up.
所有人都看涨。
Everyone's everyone's bullish.
哦，是吗？
Oh, yeah?
好的。
Okay.
高盛，他们……
Goldman, they're...
他们有一个仓位指标。
They have a positioning indicator.
这是七周内第六次下跌，进一步跌入负值区域，是自2025年6月以来最负面的。
It fell for the sixth week in seven moving further into negative territory, the most negative since June 2025.
Ben，我们怎么看这个？
What do we make of this, Ben?
嗯，这个嘛……
Well, this is...
情绪指标已经完全失灵了。
Sentiment indicators are completely broken.
你要相信……
You trust...
你要相信资金流向，而不是情绪指标。
You've trust the flows, not the sentiment indicators.
你不能问人们想做什么或者他们感觉如何。
You can't ask people what they wanna do or what they feel.
你必须……
You have to...
他们实际上在做什么？
What are they actually doing?
所以资金流向更重要。
So the flow matter way more
我同意。
I agree.
但我确实想知道这个情绪指标是不是量化的。
But I do wonder if the sentiment indicator is quantitative.
我猜它……
I'm guessing it...
它肯定主要是量化的。
It's gotta be mostly quantitative.
这不是基于调查的。
This is not survey based.
关键是，显然要小心对待调查。
The point is just be careful with surveys, obviously.
很难说每个人都是这样或那样，因为罗宾汉的交易员、高盛的机构投资者和嘉信理财的税务投资者，他们的行为方式截然不同。
It's really hard to say everyone is this or that because the Robinhood trader behaves very differently than the Goldman institutional investor than the Schwab s tax investor.
这些是不同类型的人，根本不能一概而论。
These are categorically different types of people.
所以真的很难说每个人都是这样，或者说共识就是那样。
So it's really hard to say everyone is this or consensus is that.
有时候容易些，但眼下确实很难。
Sometimes it's easier than others, but right now, it's difficult.
我本来想把这个写进文档里的，但我不想写。
So I was gonna put this in the doc, but I didn't want to.
但《大西洋月刊》有篇文章说，美国正在经历一场性衰退。
But The Atlantic had this piece where they said that there is a sex recession in America.
对吧？
K?
我要把这个拉回到情绪这个话题上来。
I'm gonna bring this back to sentiment.
而且他们显示，唯一性生活频率没变的，就是已婚夫妇中的宗教信徒。
And they show that the only people who are still having the same amount of sex, this is married couples, are religious couples.
所以就像是在问，宗教信徒，你们性生活多频繁？
So it's like religious, attendees, how much sex do you have?
他们是怎么拿到这些数据的？
Do they get this data?
是不是……
Is it...
这是不是，比如，从苹果手表上来的？
Is this is this something, like, on the iWatch?
他们到底是怎么搞到这些数据的？
How do they how do they get this data?
这也是我想问的。
This was my question.
谁会正常到去回答这种调查啊？
Who in their right mind is answering a survey like this?
你信什么教？
What is your religion?
你和配偶有性生活吗？
Are you having sex with your spouse?
没有人会正常回答这些问题。
No one is no one in their right mind is answering these questions.
怎么会
How can
你觉得呢？
you think?
这些人都是怪人。
These are weirdos.
他们应该说
Should They're say
垃圾。
the trash.
怪人都不做爱或者什么的。
Weirdos are not having sex or whatever.
对。
Correct.
谁会回答这种问题？
Who is answering this?
谁会回答这些？
Who's answering these?
没有
There's no
平均年龄是多少来着？
The way average you can age is what?
68？
68?
我就是不知道谁会回答这种问题。
I I just don't know who is answering questions like this.
你说得对。
You're right.
好的。
Alright.
我们稍微聊聊债券吧。
Let's talk bonds a little bit.
我先从这个说起。
Let me start with this.
嘿，大家好。
Hey, guys.
我每周都听，很喜欢这个节目。
I listen every week and love the show.
我们大概收到了十二三封这样的邮件。
We we we got 12 or 13 different emails like this probably.
当然。
Sure.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
我明白了
I see
市场现在的情况。
where the market is.
你上周说你买了债券。
You said last week you bought bonds.
你能详细说说吗？
Can you elaborate on that?
你买的是实际的债券还是ETF？
Did you purchase actual bonds or ETF?
哪种类型的债券？
What types of bonds?
这些问题都问得挺好。
All fair questions.
而且，再说一次，很多人也问过我们这个问题。
And, again, a bunch of people asked us this.
我和迈克尔完全是反向指标。
Michael and I are totally contraindicators.
关于这次买债券，我要说的是——
Here's And the thing that I will say on this bond purchase.
等等。
Wait.
你说反向指标是什么意思？
What do mean are contraindicators?
因为大家都在冒险进场，而我们却反着来，买了——
Because everyone else is getting in the pool for taking on risk, and we're going the other way with a
我觉得很多人开始看好债券了。
I think a lot people I think a lot of people are turning bullish on bonds.
我不知道，老兄。
I don't know, man.
也许吧。
Maybe.
所以我就是这么做的。
So here's what I did.
我是在我的券商账户里做的，以前我从来没在券商账户里做过这个。
I did this at my brokerage account, and I've never done it my brokerage account before.
我的401k还是百分之百全是股票。
My four zero one k is still 100% all stocks.
我是在……
I did this in...
我，我，我买了一个ETF。
I I I bet an ETF.
你可以买单个债券，但那很麻烦。
You can buy individual bonds, but it's a pain in the butt.
如果你不是那种懂这些操作的人，你可以去Treasury Direct直接从美国政府那里买国债。
If you're not, like, someone who knows how this stuff works, you can go to treasury direct and buy treasuries right from the US government.
但那个网站又老又旧，我不明白为什么你要自己买债券，而不是直接买个ETF。
But it's an old antiquated website, and I don't know why you would try to buy your own bonds when you could just buy an ETF.
这样就简单多了。
That makes it easy.
成本也低。
It's low cost.
大部分流动性都很好。
Most of them are very liquid.
就是……
It's just...
很简单。
It's it's simple.
而且关键是，我们显然还处于早期阶段。
And the thing is we are we are obviously early here.
你和我不会像……
You and I are not gonna like...
我们买了债券，那已经是利率的顶点了。
We bought bonds, that's the top of rates.
不是。
No.
肯定不是
There's definitely not the
顶部。
top.
别盯着看，不是顶部。
Don't look at not the top.
我从来不看……
I never look at...
这也是我们跟客户沟通时的思路。
And this is how we think about this with our clients too.
我不会从试图择时利率市场的角度去看这个问题。
I do not look at this from a I'm trying to time an interest rate market.
我不会去猜利率到某个时间点会降多少，甚至利率保持不变我也不在乎。
I think rates are gonna fall this much by this date, and, like, I don't even care if rates stay where they are.
我也是。
Same.
所以这就是风险回报收益。
So it's it's it's a risk reward yield.
对。
Yes.
我喜欢这个收益。
I like the yield.
这才是关键。
That's that's the thing.
说到
Well, speaking
收益。
of yield.
所以他……
So he...
等等。
Wait.
我能说说我做了什么吗？
Can I say what I did?
可以。
Yes.
你做了什么？
What did you do?
因为我很高兴你这么说。
Because I'm glad that you said that.
我也没动我的401k。
I also am not touching my four zero one k.
我今年41岁。
I'm 41 years old.
我真的不太在乎市场短期内怎么走。
I don't care really where the market goes over the near term.
如果你能百分之百确定市场会……
Now if you told me for sure with a 100% certainty that the market would get...
会跌30%，那当然，我会卖掉所有股票，把钱全投到债券里。
Would fall for 30%, well, then, of course, I would sell all my stocks and put everything into bonds.
但我现在没买债券。
But I'm not I'm not buying bonds.
我还是看好股票。
I still like stocks.
如果股票涨了……
Now if stocks go up...
如果股票到年底涨15%，2027年再涨25%，我可能会考虑买点债券吗？
If stocks rip 15% into year end and they go up another 25% in 2027, might I consider owning some bonds?
如果我觉得我们真的处于泡沫中，我会买债券吗？
If if I think, like, we're really in a bubble, will I own some bonds?
当然会。
Sure.
好的。
Okay.
行。
Fine.
不是那个。
Not that.
在我的经纪账户里，像你一样，本，我只剩下一个半股票了。
In my brokerage account like you, Ben, I am down to one and a half stocks.
我仍然持有相当多的IMAX股票，我还持有另一只股票。
I still have a pretty full position in IMAX, and I I own another stock.
是哪只股票都不重要了。
Doesn't even matter which stock.
我……
I...
但我把所有的都卖了
But I sold all of the ones
那个，你提起来会不好意思吗？
that to mention it?
什么？
What's that?
你是不是不好意思提那个？
Are you embarrassed to mention it?
那个不重要。
That that doesn't matter.
嗯，就是仓位比较小。
Well, it's it's just it's a small position.
所以我……
So I...
不是。
No.
我持有Clear。
I I own Clear.
股票代码就是你。
Ticker is you.
这是一个很小的仓位，所以不值得提。
It's a very small position, so it's not worth mentioning.
Clear是指机场那个东西吗？
Clear as in, like, the airport thing?
机场。
The airport.
机场那个东西。
The airport thing.
好的。
Okay.
所以我清掉了……
So I got rid of...
我清理了净……
I cleaned up net...
我我我放弃了Netflix。
I I I bailed on Netflix.
我不在乎这是不是底部。
I don't care if it's the bottom.
我在Netflix上亏了20%。
I'm down 20% on Netflix.
我转投了Spotify。
I got to Spotify.
其他我冒险买的股票，除了Netflix亏了20%之外，都是小亏，现在都清掉了。
Like, all the other stocks I took a chance on that I had, like, small losses in except for Netflix, which was a 20% loss, gone.
全砍了。
Whacked them off.
我很满意持有那些5%收益的资产。
I am very happy owning owning my 5% yields.
所以我配置了短期和中期债券，今天早上还试了试长期债券，估计会被套牢。
So I've got a mixture of short, intermediate, and I did take a swing this morning on long, which I will probably get run over on.
没事。
It's fine.
不过，是的，这不是股票市场。
But, yeah, this is not a stock market.
好的。
Okay.
所以这是直接的……
So that's a direct...
这是一个方向性押注。
That's a directional bet.
你在做长久期。
You're going a long duration.
所以我买了，我买了，我买了……
So I bought I bought I bought...
我确实在录这个之前三十分钟买了TLT。
I did buy TLT thirty minutes before this
好的。
Okay.
播客开始了。
Podcast started.
确实……
It it sure...
感觉收益率像是要见顶了，但谁知道呢？
Certainly feels like a blow off top in yields, but who knows?
跟听众们说明一下，我们……
Just to be clear, people listening, again, we're we're...
这不是在说债券市场利率已经见顶了，因为还没有。
This is not a bond market call to say that rates have topped or anything because they they haven't.
真的还没有。
They just haven't.
很明显，它们还在上涨。
Like, they're clearly going up.
趋势是向上的。
The trend is higher.
不要跟趋势作对。
Don't fight the trend.
我们刚刚……我
We've just I
我想是吧。
guess I am.
在我们的投资生涯中，我们从未经历过5%的债券收益率。
In our investing life cycle, we've never experienced 5% bond yields before.
我必须这么做。
I gotta do it.
我必须这么做。
I gotta do it.
这很有吸引力。
It's attractive.
好的。
Okay.
然后我们聊了……
And so we we talked...
这周我们采访了摩根大通的比尔·伊根。
This week, we talked to Bill Egan from JPMorgan.
他很快会出现在节目里，他说，你知道吗，我现在买国库券能拿到4%的收益。
He's gonna be on the talk book in a few And he was like, you know, I'm getting 4% on t bills.
我为什么不就待在那儿呢？
Why wouldn't I just stay there?
其实这对很多人来说仍然是一个选择。
Like, that's an option for a lot of people too still.
而且如果美联储继续加息，那些三个月期的国库券没有利率风险，它们也会表现得很好的。
And if the fed keeps hiking rates, those three month t bills don't have interest rate risk, and they'll they'll do just fine too.
而且你得……
And you gotta...
所以问题是，收益率是有上限的。
So the thing is that yields are bound.
如果有人告诉你收益率是有上限的。
If somebody told you yields are bound.
如果在2020年有人告诉你，你能拿到4%的现金回报，你的反应会是，好吧。
If somebody told you in 2020 that you can get 4% in cash, the response would be like, alright.
那我为什么还要做别的呢？
Why would I really do much else?
但关键是，如果通胀和增长停滞，债券会给你带来额外的收益。
But the thing is bonds give you the kicker if if and when inflation and growth stall.
如果它们停滞了，债券就会有额外的收益。
If they stall out, bonds are gonna have a kicker.
让我给你看看。
And let me show you.
我我做了...
I I did...
这周肖恩和马特一直在帮我弄一些彭博农业指数的东西。
I had Sean and Matt were working on me with some, Bloomberg Ag stuff this week.
这个农业指数可以追溯到1976年。
So the Ag goes back to 1976.
它最初是……
It was originally...
这里有个小历史课。
A little history lesson here.
最初是雷曼兄弟的农业指数，他们在八十年代初创建的，然后把它回溯到七十年代，这样……
Originally, Lehman Brothers Ag, they created it in the early eighties, then they backdated it to the seventies so this...
就能有一个基准。
Can have a benchmark.
以前从来没有人有过债券基准。
No one ever had a bond benchmark before.
投资级。
Investment grade.
自1976年以来，这是最差的五年回报之一。
Since 1976, this is one of the worst five year returns ever.
它是负的。
It's negative.
在这个周期之前，它从未出现过负值。
It's never been negative before until this part of the cycle.
滚动十年名义回报。
The rolling ten year nominal return.
所以，五年年化回报率大约是负0.3%。
So that was, like, negative point 3% for five year annualized return.
十年的话，是1.4%。
For ten years, it's 1.4%.
如果再加上通胀，现在这个农业指数自1976年创立以来的实际回报是史上最差的十年。
If you add inflation on top of it, this is the worst ten year real return ever for the ag right now since the inception back in 1976.
原因是，即使在八十年代通胀更高、利率上升更快的时候，收益率也高得多。
And the reason was even when inflation was higher and rates were rising even more rapidly in the eighties, yields were a lot higher.
所以这真的是债券市场最糟糕的情况了。
So this was literally the perfect storm for a bad bond market.
起始收益率低，利率快速上升，通胀高企。
Low starting yields, rapidly rising rates, high inflation.
我们刚刚经历的债券市场，已经是最差的了。
You couldn't ask for a worse bond market than we just lived through.
没错。
Correct.
而另一面则是更高的收益率。
And on the other side of that is higher yields.
这就是我们对债券的看法。
That's our bond take.
好的。
Alright.
我上周说过，根本不存在所谓的k。
I said last week, there is no such thing as a k.
吉姆·比安科给我发了私信，他说，本，这就是那个关键点。
Jim Bianco slid in my DMs and he said, Ben, this is the k.
他给我发了一张图表。
He sent me a chart.
我们之前讨论过市场情绪。
We talked about sentiment earlier.
顺便说一句，吉姆·比安科对债券转为看涨了。
By the way, Jim Bianco turned bullish on bonds.
债券。
Bonds.
我看到了。
I saw that.
所以他说这就是那个关键点。
So he said this is the k.
就是股市对比市场情绪。
It's the stock market versus sentiment.
股市上涨，情绪却下跌。
Stock market goes up, sentiment goes down.
因为我说过，没有任何图表看起来像字母K。
Because I said there's no there's no chart that actually looks like a letter k.
他说，不对。
He said, no.
这是股市与情绪的对比。
It's a stock market versus sentiment.
这非常奇怪。
This is this is very bizarre.
你可以看到过去，股市崩盘，情绪也崩盘，股市上涨，情绪也上涨。
You can see in the past, stock market crashes, sentiment crashes, stock market goes up, sentiment goes up.
直到……
Until...
我们知道。
We know.
是的，那些调查。
The surveys Yeah.
就是
Are
是疫情造成的。
COVID did it.
关于这个K形，有件奇怪的事。
Here's the strange thing about the K.
对吧？
Alright?
卡托研究所，看看这个。
Kato Institute, look at this.
这挺让人意外的。
This is pretty surprising.
他们研究了家庭……
They looked at household...
自九十年代以来，按通胀调整后的收入增长情况。
The growth in income on an on an inflation adjusted basis since the nineteen nineties.
最低的五分之一……
The lowest fifth of...
所以他们看了最低的五分之一、中位数、第二个五分之一和中间的五分之一。
So they did the lowest fifth, median, second fifth, and middle fifth.
他们关注的是贫困和中产阶级家庭。
They're looking at poor and middle class households.
自1990年以来，最低的五分之一家庭的收入增长幅度最大。
The lowest fifth has seen by far the greatest gains in income since 1990.
非常令人意外。
Very surprising.
对吧？
Okay?
他们还看了，让我想想。
They also looked at, let's see.
等一下。
Hang on.
哦，收入和财富的增长也是。
Oh, growth and growth and wealth too.
其实一直挺强劲的。
It's actually been pretty strong.
比如，在九十年代的大部分时间里，对于大多数中低收入家庭来说，收入增长其实并不大。
Like, throughout most of the nineties, income gains actually weren't that great for most lower middle income households.
但在过去十到二十年里，它们像火箭一样飙升了。
They've they've, like, rocketed higher in the past ten to twenty years.
《华尔街日报》有这篇文章。
The Wall Street Journal has this piece.
经通胀调整后的家庭收入中位数。
Inflation adjusted median household income.
看看这个。
Look at this.
从2000年到2015年，经通胀调整后的收入基本没动。
From 2000 to 2015, inflation adjusted income went nowhere.
还记得大家当时有多生气吗？
Remember how mad people were about this?
看看这几年涨得多厉害。
Look at how much it's shot up in recent years.
这也是经济中一个被低估的部分。
This is also an underreported part of the economy.
我当然不是说最底层的五分之一过得很好，因为他们显然不是。
And I'm I'm definitely not saying that the lower fifth is, like, killing it at all because they're obviously not
但相对而言呢？
But on a relative basis?
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
我不是那个意思。
That's not that's not where I'm going.
我的意思是，他们仍然在花光所有的钱，而现在他们有更多的钱可以花。
My point is they're still spending all their money, and now they have more money to spend.
听听这个。
Listen to this.
还有一条来自卡托研究所的。
One more from Cato Institute.
自1967年以来，家庭收入达到15万美元或以上的比例，这是经过通胀调整的，已经翻了五倍多。
Since 1967, the share of households with incomes of 150,000 or greater, that's inflation adjusted, okay, has more than quintupled.
这是最疯狂的事情……
This is the craziest thing that...
看看这张图表。
Look at this chart here.
按通胀调整后，年收入15万美元及以上的人口比例，1967年只有5%的家庭。
The percentage of people with a $150,000 or more inflation adjusted, 1967 was 5% of households.
今天，这个比例接近30%。
Today, it's almost 30%.
哇。
Wow.
我觉得我们真的没有充分庆祝我们创造了多少财富，以及现在的收入比过去好了多少。
Don't think we celebrate enough how much wealth that we've created and how how much better incomes are than they were in the past.
再来一个。
One more.
布莱克·米勒德，节目的朋友。
Blake Millard, friend of the show.
去年他在Future Proof的一个小组里和我一起讨论内容。
He's on a panel with me last last year of Future Proof talking about, content.
股票财富激增，推动家庭资产在2026年第二季度超过了负债的10倍。
Surging equity wealth pushed household assets above 10 times of liabilities in q two of twenty twenty six.
这是来自美国银行的数据。
This is from Bank of America.
这张图表简直太疯狂了。
This is this is an insane chart.
现在家庭资产与负债的比率是10倍。
Household assets to liabilities is now 10 times.
这真的很惊人。
That's pretty crazy.
我们花了很多时间讨论负债，却没有花足够的时间讨论资产。
We spent a lot of time talking about the liabilities and not enough talking about the assets.
说到这一点，摩根大通这周也发布了一份类似的报告，标题是《更多美国家庭通过动用投资财富来支持消费》。
To that point, JPMorgan had a similar report this week titled More US Households Are Supporting Spending by drawing on investment wealth.
所以股市的飞轮……
So the flywheel of stocks...
股市收益流入实体经济，这一我们一直在讨论的现象，正在快速运转。
Stock market gains flowing into the real economy, which we've been discussing, is spinning fast.
好。
K.
关于这个报告，我有个问题。
I have a question about this I have a question about this report.
先给我数据，然后我再问我的问题。
Give the data, then I'll then I'll ask my question.
好的。
Okay.
你知道，这报告不是我做的。
You know I didn't make this report.
是的。
Yes.
但我……
But I'm...
我只是……
I just...
我对此有自己的看法。
Have a I have a take on it.
好的。
Okay.
从2026年2月到4月，有8%的人净撤回了投资资金。
8% of people withdrew money from investments on net over February to April 2026.
这比2019年同期的4%和2015年的2.4%有所上升。
That's up from 4% over the same period of 2019 and just two point four percent in 2015.
高收入人群更倾向于用投资来支持消费。
High income individuals are much more likely to use investments to support spending.
最高收入群体的比例从2015年2月至4月的6.6%上升到了20%。
The share from the top income segment rose from 6.6% from February to April 2015 to 20%.
这真是难以置信。
That's unbelievable.
所以股市对于那些长期投资的人来说，就像一个大存钱罐。
So the stock market is just a big ass piggy bank for people that have been invested for a while.
还有一件事，然后你就可以问了。
One more one more thing, and then you could ask.
他们还展示了从投资账户中提取的现金占支出的比例。
They also showed the cash withdrawn from investment accounts as a share of spending.
当然，对于前10%的人来说，这个比例远远上升到了右边。
And, of course, for the top 10%, it is so far up into the right.
以前在2015年还不到4%，现在，我不知道，超过10%了。
It used to be, like, less than 4% in 2015, and now it is, I don't know, over 10%.
所以我也读了这份报告。
So I I read this report too.
这是
This is
哦，你想去度假？
Oh, you wanna go on vacation?
那就卖点股票呗。
Sell some stocks.
这展示的是财富效应。
This is showing the wealth effect.
这不也仅仅是婴儿潮一代退休后，从投资账户里花更多钱吗？
Isn't this also just baby boomers retiring and spending more from their investment accounts?
我不确定是否仅仅如此。
I don't know if it's just that.
但这不是其中很大一部分原因吗？
But isn't that a big part of it?
当然，这是故事的一部分。
Of course, it's part of the story.
好。
K.
我以为……
I thought...
好吧。
Alright.
我觉得这类数据在接下来的几年里会被婴儿潮一代影响得很厉害。
I think stats like this are gonna be skewed by baby boomers in the years
对。
ahead.
它们说的可能都是真的。
Of them can be true.
你怀疑这张图的方向吗？它绝对是在讲一个真实的故事。
Do you do you doubt the direction of this chart is absolutely telling the story?
想想看，有多少婴儿潮一代现在……
Think about how many baby boomers are...
比如说，想想2010年的时候，婴儿潮一代是怎么准备退休的，然后发现，我的房子跌惨了。
Like, think about where baby boomers were in 2010 in terms of how they prepared they were for retirement and going, my house got killed.
我的股票投资组合也亏惨了。
My stock portfolio got killed.
我永远都退不了休了。
I'm never going to be able to retire.
现在他们一看，天哪。
And now they're looking at, oh my gosh.
我拥有的所有东西都在涨。
Everything I own is up.
比我之前能想象的还要好得多。
Doing way better than I possibly could have imagined.
那真是个愚蠢的观点。
That was a dumb take.
婴儿潮一代兑现他们的401k会导致股市崩盘。
Baby boomers cashing out their four one k was gonna was gonna crash the stock market.
我从来没
I've never
哦，对。
Oh, yeah.
因为事情就是这样运作的。
Because that's how it works.
人们……
People...
当婴儿潮一代到了六……
When baby boomers turn six...
到了，到了那个年龄，取款的年龄是六……
Turned turned whatever the age is, what is the age of withdrawal six...
对于401k来说？
For four zero k?
是69岁还是65岁？
Is it 69 or sixty sixty five?
69岁半？
Sixty nine and a half?
59岁半。
595.
可以开始。
Can start.
595。
595.
你看，我又不是注册理财规划师。
See, I'm not a CFP.
反正，他们打算同时把资金全部转为现金，这真是最蠢的做法。
Anyway, that they were gonna just, like, go to cash simultaneously, dumbest shit ever.
好的。
Alright.
我们这里有一个关于通胀的标题。
We have a heading for inflation here.
我们有一阵子没用它了，所以我随便放了些内容进去。
We haven't used it in a while, so I put something in here just because.
这是基于通胀的。
This is inflation based.
这是约翰·阿诺德发的推文。
John Arnold tweeted this.
截至2026年8月，全国……
As of August 2026, the nation...
全国租金中位数是13.90美元，几乎正好回到了如果2020年以来租金增长一直保持疫情前那种缓慢稳定轨迹时应该有的水平。
National median rent sits at $13.90, almost exactly where it would have been if rent growth since 2020 had remained on the slow and steady trajectory it had been on pre pandemic.
自2017年以来年化增长2%。
2% annualized since 2017.
所以2021年租金出现了巨大的飙升。
So you had this huge enormous spike in 2021 rents.
而自2022年以来，租金增长完全停滞，又回到了疫情前的趋势。
And ever since 2022, rent growth has completely fallen off, and it's back on the pre pandemic trend.
我不确定有多少人会相信你给他们看这个数据。
I'm not sure how many people would believe you if you showed them this.
好吧。
Fine.
有意思。
Interesting.
这是好消息。
It's good news.
对吧？
Correct?
你不觉得租金增长放缓对人们来说是好消息吗，尤其是那些被挤出房地产市场的年轻人？
You don't think rent growth slowing is good news for people, especially young people who boxed out of the housing market?
这确实是好消息。
It's it's good news.
别这样。
Come on.
要知道，现在社交媒体上的人们最讨厌的就是好消息了。
Know there's nothing there's nothing people on social media hate more today than than good economic news.
我有个朋友埃迪经常这么说。
Eddie of mine says that all the time.
嗯，是的，我只是……
Well, yeah, I just
你知道这是真的。
You know that's true.
我知道。
I know.
我知道这是真的。
I know that's true.
我只是想说，通货膨胀太严重了，所以很难为这个感到高兴。
I'm just saying inflation was so horrible that it's just difficult to celebrate this.
但这就是重点……
But this is the bit...
实际上，90%的家庭最大的开销就是住房。
Literally, biggest outlay for 90% of households is housing.
对于租房的人来说，租金
And for people who are renting, the fact that rent
不。
No.
对。
Yes.
对于租房的人来说，当然是这样。
For people that are renting, of of course.
当然。
Of course.
这确实是好消息。
It is good news.
好的。
Alright.
我们来聊聊……
Let's talk about...
你说你一直在……
So you you said you've been...
我喜欢你的观点，你不想听人们怎么用他们的代理或AI之类的。
I liked your take that you don't wanna hear what people are doing with their, like, agents or AI or, like...
这就像梦幻足球一样。
It's like fantasy football.
别告诉我你在做什么了。
Stop telling me what you're doing.
我不在乎。
I don't care.
我这是在违反自己的规矩。
I am violating my own rules.
我敢肯定你是。
I'm sure you are.
但你确实在用这些东西。
But you're you're using some of this stuff.
上周我提到过玩Muse。
I talked about playing around with Muse last week.
所以有一个...
So has a...
他说，Muse 和类似的智能体AI助手很快就能自动把家庭现金转入年利率3.3%到5%的账户，而不是全国平均活期账户的0.1%。
He said, Muse and similar agentic AI assistance could soon sweep household cash automatically into accounts paying 3.3 to 5% instead of point 1% on the national average on checking accounts.
如果每个家庭都用AI智能体来优化回报，
If every household used AI agents to optimize the return
那他们的现金，这太蠢了。
on their cash This very stupid.
对。
Yes.
银行可能会失去大量依赖的廉价存款，这些存款是他们放贷的基础，那会是个问题。
Banks could lose a large share of cheap deposits they rely on to make loans, which would be a problem.
这里是，如果——
Here's the If
我要是，我要是，我有头发的话，我就不会秃了。
I if I had if I had hair, I wouldn't be bald.
这里是，首先——
Here's the First of
首先，你……
all, you you...
他们做不到这一点。
They can't do this.
如果你一直去查银行账户，银行会切断他们的访问权限。
The the banks will shut them off if you just keep pinging their bank account.
对。
Yes.
那就是……银行……
That's a The bank...
那就是我们……
That's where we
不让你访问。
don't your access.
听我说。
Like, listen.
我是……
I am...
我……
I...
我从一开始就说过，我对AI唯一的要求就是让斯嘉丽·约翰逊当我的助手，听起来我们真的快实现了，或者已经实现了。
I've said from the start, the only thing I want from AI is Scarlett Johansson from her as my assistant, and it sounds like we're really getting close to that or we're already there.
我们还没有。
We haven't.
我就想要这个。
That's all I want.
我想要那个助手。
I want the assistant.
我觉得它得变得更好。
I think it's gotta get better.
我不会成为一个……
I'm I'm not going to be a...
我从来不是这些新东西的第一批用户，所以我会……
I'm never a first user for these things, so I'm gonna...
我可能会等苹果出了再用一下。
I'm probably gonna wait till Apple does it to use it a little.
我最近稍微玩了一下Muse。
I've been toying around with Muse a little bit.
好的。
Okay.
但我……
But I'm
可能会……
gonna probably...
我会等苹果给我一个真正好用的，然后可能会用他们的，因为我觉得那样会更方便。
I'm gonna wait till Apple gives me a really good one and probably use them just because I feel it'll be easier.
我想，我想……
I I wanna I wanna...
在我们聊智能体之前，我得说，过去这一周我真是把Instinct用了个遍，简直太他妈的厉害了。
Before we get into the agents, and I've been I've been using this using this shit out of instinct over the last week, and it's absolutely fucking incredible.
所以我要打破上周说的不分享的规矩。
So I'm going to violate what I said last week about not sharing.
抱歉。
Sorry.
无所谓。
Don't care.
这真的太不可思议了，我想让观众都知道。
It's unbelievable, and I want the audience to know about it.
我想在回到智能体话题之前先说这个。
I wanna say this before we return to the agent stuff.
我不知道这算不算有争议。
I don't know if this is controversial or not.
我根本不在乎那些AI垃圾内容。
I don't give a shit about AI slop.
怎么样？
How about that?
我不在乎。
I don't care.
我理解……
I under...
这是我的看法。
Here's here's my take.
我理解为什么人们会在意这个。
I understand why people do care about it.
我真的理解。
I really do.
我觉得这是出于好意。
I think it's coming from a good place.
我觉得人们担心我们正在失去人性。
I think that there's worry that we're losing our humanity.
但你知道吗？
But can I tell you something?
我就是不在乎。
I just don't care.
我不会被别人的做法影响。
I don't get caught up in what other people are doing.
如果你想给我写一封AI生成的邮件，我会直接删掉。
If you wanna write me an AI crafted email, I'll just delete it.
或者，也许我会读一下……
Or or maybe I'll read...
我只是……
I just...
我真的不太在意这个。
I'm just not that bothered by it.
我觉得“AI垃圾”已经成了网上的流行词。
I feel like AI slop has become like the term du jour on the Internet.
我不在乎。
I don't care.
我想我跟你一样，我也不太……
I guess I'm like you where I'm not...
而且我相信大多数人都会慢慢接受这一点，或者迟早会接受的。
And I'm sure most people are coming around to that or will come around to that.
我……
I...
我跟你一样。
I'm like you.
我就是……
I just...
它……
It...
对我来说，这就是一个过滤掉某些人的工具。
For me, it's a filter to ignore someone.
我……
I...
如果你用AI写博客，我一眼就能看出来，然后我根本就不会去读。
If if if you were to blog post using AI, and I could tell immediately that I'm just not gonna read it.
所以这……
So that...
对我来说就是个筛选工具。
It's just a filter for me.
你说得对。
You're right.
你在制造
You're making
这个游戏。
the game.
人们都在猜测，说以后除了AI生成的东西，其他什么都没了，但我完全不同意。
People are making the leap that, like, there will be nothing left other than AI produced shit, and I just reject that.
这完全是胡说八道。
It's just nonsense.
我也这么觉得。
I do too.
而且，好的写作者其实没那么多。
And and also, there aren't there aren't that many good writers out there.
所以如果人们用AI来写出比自己写得更好的东西，我也不确定。
So if people are using AI to write better than they could by themselves, I don't know.
如果你不太擅长写作，为什么不呢？
Why wouldn't you if you're not a very...
如果你不喜欢写作或者不太擅长的话？
If you don't like writing or you're not very good at it?
总之，我对智能体这件事很看好。
So, anyway, I'm bullish on the agent thing.
好的。
Alright.
那会是什么呢？
So what would be?
但我觉得
But I think
想想看。
about it.
但我很喜欢我们现在开始思考下一步会是什么。
But but I love the fact that we're getting to the point where we're trying to figure out what the next...
它会带来什么。
What it's gonna lead to.
而且我……
And I I...
听我说。
Like, listen.
人们要把现有的钱转走并不难。
It's not that hard for people to take money they have now and move it.
这并不难做到。
It's not hard to do.
比如，仅仅有一个代理并不会让你变得更好。
Like, just having an agent is not gonna make you much better.
我很喜欢人们正在思考这将会……
I I love the fact that people are trying to think through what this...
有一个代理会带来什么。
Having an agent will do.
这是我的……
Here's my...
这是我不太……的事情。
Here's the thing I don't...
我觉得现在这个问题完全无法回答。
I think that's totally unanswerable right now.
到底有多少人会真正充分利用这些呢？
How many people are actually going to use these to the fullest extent?
因为，比如说，我认识一些人，他们把所有事情都优化到了极致。
Because, like, I know people who are all, like, optimized to the hilt.
他们特别喜欢这些东西。
Love these things.
有多少人真的需要一个人生助理呢？
How many people actually need a personal assistant for their life?
有多少人……
How many people are...
比如说，有多少人的生活是像CEO或者高管那样忙到需要这个的？
Like, how many people have CEO level whatever or c suite level lives that are so busy that they need this?
这个问题我不知道答案。
That's a question I don't know the answer to.
我觉得这个问题问得不对。
I think it's the wrong question.
好的。
Okay.
谁说非得人人都用，它才算有意义？
Who says everybody has to use it for it to matter?
嗯，如果它会导致银行挤兑，那每个人都会……
Well, if it's gonna lead to a bank run, then everyone has...
我就是这个意思。
That's what I'm saying.
要那样的话，简直是自己找死。
To have, like, suicidal that.
胡说八道。
Nonsense.
好吧。
Okay.
我觉得每个人都会用这些东西的。
I think everybody's gonna use these things.
但我确实认为，那些用的人，他们……
But I do think the people who do use them, they're...
他们会得到……
They are gonna get...
但我觉得过一段时间，你会想，我到底真的需要订多少次餐厅？
But I think after a while, you're gonna go, how many, like, restaurant reservations do I really make?
多少次旅行预订？停一下。
How many travel reservations Stop.
我真的需要……
Do I really
每个人都会用这些东西的。
Everybody's going to use these things.
那当然啦。
Of course they are.
但是我不确定它们会不会产生那种社会影响，像……
But I I don't know if they're gonna have the societal impact that
该死的。
Goddamn it.
让我把话说完。
Let me finish.
好。
Alright.
当我说每个人……
When I say everybody...
因为我在……
Because I'm...
我这周一直在用。
I've been using it all week.
你才没有。
You have not.
所以让我说说这个。
So let me just talk about this.
哦，整周啊。
Oh, all week.
哇。
Woah.
嗯，自从Future Proof，自从我下载了它之后。
Well, since Future Proof, since I downloaded it.
好的。
Okay.
而且我，我回不去了。
And I I cannot go backwards.
所以你是晚采用者，承认吧。
So you are a late adopter, admittedly.
刚发现Apple Pay。
Just discovered Apple Pay.
我不认为100%的社会都会用这个。
I don't think that 100% of the society is going to use this.
显然，当我说每个人的时候，不是字面上的每个人。
Obviously, when I say everybody, don't mean literally everybody.
但是Ben，这真的太不可思议了。
But Ben, it is incredible.
这绝对令人难以置信。
It is absolutely incredible.
别把它想成是，哦，是不是每个人都需要一个助手？
Don't think of it as like, oh, does everybody need an assistant?
不是的。
No.
不是每个人都需要助手。
Not everybody needs an assistant.
它只是为你做了太多事情。
It just does so many things for you.
举个例子，我不是说这就是终极解决方案。
So as an example, and I'm not saying that this is the end all be all.
我只是想跟那些心里想‘等等’的听众分享一下。
I'm just sharing with the audience who's like, wait.
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