How to build a defensive portfolio as bond yields rise

大家好，欢迎回到资产配置播客。

Hello, and welcome back to the Asset Allocator podcast.

我是Aamina Zafar，EA的基金记者。

I'm Aamina Zafar, funds reporter at EA.

我是David Thorpe，资产配置的供稿编辑。

And I'm David Thorpe, contributing editor at Asset Allocator.

在今天的节目中，我们将探讨高债券收益率如何重塑投资组合构建，并讨论Vesta如何应对股票市场的多元化。

In today's episode, we'll explore how higher bond yields are reshaping portfolio construction and discuss how Vesta navigates equity market diversification.

我们还会看看如何构建防御性资产配置，并深入探讨收益策略面临的独特机遇和挑战。

We'll also look at how to structure defensive asset allocations, as well as delving deeper into the unique opportunities and challenges facing income strategies.

为了全面解读这些内容，我们邀请到了Chelsea金融服务公司的董事总经理Darius McDermott。

To make sense of it all, we're joined by Darius McDermott, Managing Director at Chelsea Financial Services.

现在，通过视频观看我们的人会发现，他今天不在演播室。

Now, anyone watching us on video will spot that he isn't in the studio today.

相反，他将在埃克塞特远程加入我们。

Instead, he's joining us remotely from Exeter.

你好，达里厄斯。

Hello, Darius.

非常感谢你抽出时间接受我们的采访。

Thank you so much for making time for us.

这是我的荣幸，阿米娜。

It's my pleasure, Aamina.

早上好。

Good morning.

很高兴和你交流。

Nice to speak to you.

现在，更高的债券收益率是市场讨论的焦点。

So higher bond yields are dominating narratives right now.

这对你们构建投资组合的方式有什么影响？

How does that impact the way you build your portfolios?

债券收益率上升，这不仅仅是英国的问题。

The higher bond yields, it's not just a UK thing.

美国的情况也是一样的。

It's been happening in America as well.

通胀一直比大家预想的要顽固，加上中东冲突导致油价居高不下，使得通胀更加持久，进而推高了债券收益率。

Inflation has been much more sticky than people thought, and post the Middle Eastern conflict with oil prices being very strong, has led to more persistent inflation and those rising bond yields.

这确实挺棘手的。

It's been tricky.

我相信你的听众都清楚，债券持仓的久期越长，当收益率上升时，这些债券的价格受到的冲击就越大。

As I'm sure your listeners know, the more duration that you carry in your bonds, the more the prices of those bonds suffer when yields go up.

所以我们很幸运，实际上已经降低了我们债券组合中绝大部分的久期，转向了短久期的债券，在某些情况下还持有了部分现金，因为如果从无风险的角度来看，现金仍然能带来不错的回报。

So we've been fortunate enough actually to reduce the duration in the vast majority of our bond portfolio, and go to shorter duration bonds, and in some instances, some cash as well, because you can still get a reasonable return on cash when looking at risk free.

毕竟大家通常把政府债券视为无风险利率的代表。

Because people discuss government bonds as being the risk free rate.

确实是无风险的，除了价格会波动这一点之外。

Well, it is risk free apart from the fact that prices do move.

而且达里厄斯，显然这是一个……

And Darius, obviously, that's a...

通胀和债券收益率之间确实有直接联系，收益率上升，债券价格就会下降。

There's a direct link between inflation and bond yields and higher yields and lower bond prices.

但是，债券收益率上升是否也会影响你对股票配置的看法呢？

But do do higher bond yields also impact how you think about an equity allocation?

是的，当然会。

Yeah, of course.

债券收益率上升会影响某些股票，特别是那些被称为优质股或债券替代品的股票。

I mean, higher bond yields can affect certain equities, you know, and the suite of equities that you would call quality or bond proxies can be affected.

我们在2022年就看到了这种情况，当时债券收益率急剧上升，速度非常快。

We very much saw that in 2022, when bond yields rose really sharply, very quickly.

那些长期现金流折现的优质股票策略确实表现不佳。

Those sort of quality equity strategies with long duration cash flows really did underperform.

所以你需要意识到，收益率上升也会影响某些股票。

So you do need to be aware that those rising yields can affect certain equities as well.

那这是否足以让你重新考虑对优质股票基金的配置呢？

And has that been enough to maybe make you reconsider allocations that you have to those quality type equity funds?

是的，我们确实一直在减少这些配置，并寻找我们认为可能或可能不会受到AI崛起、通胀以及当前市场状况不同影响的特定配置。

Yeah, we certainly have been reducing those allocations and looking for specific allocations that we think may or may not be affected in different ways by the rise of AI and inflation and the current market conditions that we're in.

债券收益率是其中的一部分。

Bond yields are a part of that.

当然，它们是，但肯定不是唯一的故事。

Of course, they are, but they're certainly not the only story in town.

稍后在《资产配置者》节目中，我们将探讨主题基金在更广泛投资组合中的作用，并探讨财富管理人在投资前与基金经理会面是否真的重要。

Coming up later on Asset Allocator, we'll look at the job thematic funds can do in a wider portfolio and explore whether it's actually important for wealth managers to meet fund managers before investing.

短暂休息后，请继续收听。

Join us after this quick break.

本期《资产配置者》由汇丰资产管理公司赞助播出。

This episode of Asset Allocator is brought to you by HSBC Asset Management.

在汇丰资产管理，我们的全球专家网络、协作文化和严谨的方法为您提供通往世界机遇的通道。

At HSBC Asset Management, our global network of experts, culture of collaboration, and disciplined approach provide you with access to a world of opportunities.

搜索汇丰资产管理，了解更多关于我们如何帮助您制定持久投资策略的信息。

Search HSBC Asset Management for more information on how we can help you create investment strategies that endure.

这是一份仅供专业投资者参考的营销通讯，投资有风险。

A marketing communication for professional investors only, capital at risk.

希望您喜欢本期《资产配置者》的其余内容。

We hope you enjoy the rest of this episode of Asset Allocator.

欢迎回到《资产配置者》。

Welcome back to Asset Allocator.

达里乌斯，现在AI股票在发达市场和新兴市场指数中的集中度很高，这让股票分散投资变得越来越难。

Now Darius, the heavy concentration of AI stocks across developed and emerging market indices makes equity diversification increasingly difficult.

利用主题股票基金是一种获得针对性敞口的方法，但您觉得这种策略有吸引力吗？

Using thematic equity funds is one approach to gaining targeted exposure, but do you find this strategy compelling?

我觉得首先需要注意的就是相关性。

I think the first thing that you need to be aware of is that correlation.

如果两年前您跟我聊这个，那还不是个问题。

If you were having this conversation two years ago, it wasn't a thing.

但亚洲新兴市场里三只特定股票的暴涨，大大提高了这种相关性。

But the huge rise of three particular stocks in Asiaemerging markets has massively increased that correlation.

台积电、海力士和三星已经成为亚洲新兴市场指数中非常重要的组成部分。

TSMC, Hynix, and Samsung have become such huge parts of the Asian emerging market indices.

当然，它们都属于AI超大规模计算的主题，而传统上你可能认为这只是美国的故事。

And they, of course, are part of the AI hyperscaler theme, which traditionally you would have thought was just a US story.

所以首先，你需要意识到这一点。

So first thing is actually just to be aware of that.

这是一个比较新的现象。

It is a newer phenomenon.

历史上，你会认为新兴市场是以消费为主导的经济体，中产阶级的崛起，以及类似的投资方向。

Historically, you would have thought of emerging markets as consumer led economies, rise of the middle classes, and that type of exposure.

所以这是第一点。

So that's the first thing.

那么，无论地理位置如何，你还能从哪里获得与这个主题无关的投资机会呢？

Then where do you go to potentially get exposure that isn't linked to that theme, regardless of the geography?

过去几年，我们一直在投资大宗商品和能源等领域，同时也关注基础设施、水务和废弃物处理、全球保险、私募股权，甚至国防等专业领域。

We have been investing over the last couple of years, particularly in areas like commodities and energy, but also specialist areas like infrastructure, water and waste, global insurance, private equity, and even defense.

其实有很多主题性的方式，可以让你在股票方面实现分散投资，而不必只依赖你原本预期的那种传统新兴市场分散策略。

There are lots of thematic ways that one can get equity diversification without just using that traditional EMDM diversification that you might have expected.

另外我觉得还需要留意的是，英国和欧洲市场在AI这个主题上的权重都比较低。

Other things I think just to be aware of is that both The UK and the European market were fairly lowly weighted to that AI story.

尤其是英国。

UK very much.

所以，配置一些英国资产本身，就能很好地丰富你的整体股票组合，起到分散风险的作用。

So actually having a UK allocation in itself is a potential good diversifier your broad equity bucket.

达瑞斯，主题投资的一个挑战是，等某个主题足够成熟、专门为此设立基金时，价值可能已经消失了，因为大家都知道了。

Darius, is one of the challenges with trying to invest thematically that by the time a theme becomes ingrained enough that a specific fund is created for it, the value may already have been gone because everybody's aware of it?

在主动管理、被动投资和ETF领域，或者我们考察过的几乎所有产品中，选择都非常多。

There is a huge amount of choice in the active, passive, and ETF space, or pretty much anything we've looked at.

我举个例子。

I'll give an example.

当……

When...

在唐纳德·特朗普当选之前，甚至在俄罗斯和乌克兰冲突爆发之前，就有说法称弹药即将耗尽，而特朗普的一个主张就是让北约国家增加军费开支，提高占GDP的百分比。

Before Donald Trump even got elected with a conflict in Russia and Ukraine, the narrative was that ammunition was running out, and one of Donald Trump's mantras was around NATO actually spending more money rearming, more percentage of...

占GDP的高比例。

High percentage of GDP.

所以我们能够通过一只ETF相对较早地进入这个主题。

So we were able to get into that theme reasonably earlier via an ETF.

这未必是最纯粹的敞口，因为其中一部分是网络安全，还有国防。

It wasn't the purest exposure we maybe could have got because some of it was cyber security, as well as defense.

但在人工智能日益发展的世界里，这对那个投资组合来说是个不错的补充。

But in a world of increasing AI, was a good addition to that basket, if you like.

而唐纳德·特朗普确实当选了，关于国防开支的说法真的开始生效了。

And Donald Trump did get elected, and that narrative around defense spending really kicked in.

那是一个非常有益的早期敞口。

And that was very useful early exposure.

不过是的，我们还没有遇到无法获得敞口的主题。

But yeah, we've yet to find thematics we can't get exposure to.

比如，我们现在正在寻找机器人技术方面的机会。

For instance, at the moment, we're looking for robotics.

下一个，也许不是AI的下一波，而是再下一波。

The next, maybe not next wave of AI, the wave after that.

我们还没有找到纯粹的敞口，但这是我们目前正在研究的事情。

And we've yet to find the pure exposure, but that's something which we're doing research on at the moment.

所以你对地理和主题敞口显然非常了解。

So you're clearly very knowledgeable when it comes to geographical and thematic exposures.

不过，当你选择基金来实现这些目标配置时，事先见一下基金经理有多重要？

However, when you're selecting a fund to achieve those targeted allocations, how crucial is it that you actually meet the manager beforehand?

我认为这很关键，尤其是在主动管理方面。

I think it is crucial, certainly with respect to active management.

我们讨论过的一些敞口是ETF。

Some of the exposures which we've discussed are ETF.

真的，那就只是打开引擎盖看看里面有什么的问题了。

Really, then it's just a matter of lifting the bonnet and having a look at what's underneath.

这是你想要的敞口吗？

Is it the exposure you want?

ETF有没有必要使用衍生品，或者有没有杠杆？

Are there any necessary use of derivatives with respect to the ETF or any gearing?

但说到主动型基金经理，我很幸运，干这行已经几十年了，见过各种各样优秀又有趣的基金经理。

But when it comes to active managers, I've been lucky enough to be doing this job for several decades now, and I've got to meet all sorts of good and interesting fund managers.

我觉得见到基金经理本人真的很重要。

And I think it really does matter when you meet fund manager.

那种面对面的交流，当你坐在桌子对面看着对方，能让你更深入地了解他们到底是怎么管钱的，而且我觉得最重要的是理解他们承担的风险敞口和他们的投资风格。

That sort of physical interaction on a when you sit across a desk from somebody, it gives you a much greater insight into actually how they run money, and gives you I think the most important thing is to understand the exposure that they're taking, the style that they have.

这样你投资给某个经理，就能得到你预期的回报。

And so that if you invest with a manager, you get the outcome that you're expecting.

我觉得面对面交流效果要好得多，尤其是在主动管理领域。

Think that is much, much better done face to face, particularly in the active space.

你第一次见基金经理的时候，会问些什么问题？

What sort of questions do you ask managers when you're meeting them for the first time?

那么，你之前提到你干这行几十年了，这些问题有没有随着时间改变呢？

And have those questions changed over the several decades that you alluded to that you've been doing this?

对我来说，关键是要理解他们的投资理念和风格。

Think for me, the thing is to understand the philosophy and style.

如果一个经理投资于优质成长股、大盘股、价值股、全球股、中盘股等等，你最不想遇到的就是意外。

If a manager is investing in quality growth, in large cap, or value, global, mid cap, whatever it may, what you don't want is nasty surprise.

所以，如果你投资一个英国多盘基金，你要知道里面会有中盘和小盘股，而且经理们确实是按照他们所说的方式在投资。

So if one takes exposure to a UK multi cap fund, that you know that there's going to be mid and small caps in there, and that actually, managers are investing the way they say they are.

那么，达里乌斯，如今一个谨慎甚至防御性的资产配置应该是什么样的呢？

So Darius, what does a cautious or even a defensive asset allocation look like today?

这个问题问得好。

That's a really good question.

在谨慎配置中，你总是要确保有分散投资的组合。

You always want to make sure in a cautious allocation that you have that mix of diversification.

最明显的当然是股票和债券，这是你的起点。

The obvious thing is equities and bonds, that's your starting point.

不过就像我们之前稍微提到的，随着债券收益率上升，这不仅会影响债券，还会影响那些类似债券的股票。

But as we maybe touched on a little bit earlier, with bond yields going up, that actually can affect not only bonds, but those sort of bond proxy type equities.

所以，我们在债券市场上看到的很多有经验的基金经理，目前能够获得相当不错的收益率，同时仍然保持较低久期的敞口，这意味着你可以降低持续通胀和债券收益率上升的风险。

So a lot of the skilled managers that we see in the bond market are able to get really quite decent yields at the moment, but still having that low duration exposure, which means you reduce that risk of continued inflation and rising bond yields.

当然，降低久期是大多数人首先使用的工具。

Certainly, reducing duration is the first tool that most people are using.

我们确实持有一些现金。

We do hold some cash.

我们持有一些黄金。

We hold some gold.

然后我们持有大量的一般另类资产。

And then we hold plenty of general alternative assets.

另外，我们一直在关注的一件事，尤其是在股市表现如此强劲的时候，是寻找一些低贝塔值的股票，比如全球保险、水务和废物处理。

Another thing which we have been looking at, certainly whilst equity markets have been so strong, is looking at some lower beta equities, things like global insurance and water and waste.

这些基金和策略的贝塔值通常在0.7到0.8左右。

These are funds and strategies that generally have betas around 0.7, 0.8.

所以在牛市大涨的时候，你可能赚得没那么猛，但你明白你获得了那种敞口。

So you don't maybe win as much in a raging bull market, but you understand that you're getting that exposure.

如果市场出现波动，这类策略的跌幅应该会远小于大盘。

If there is market wobbles, those type of strategies should actually fall much less than the market.

是的，这不容易，但要做到分散投资。

So yeah, it's not easy, but being diversified.

但再说回来，我们之前提到的，要确保你意识到市场中某些相关性，这些相关性可能以前并不存在。

But again, coming back to our previous making sure that you're aware certain correlations in markets that maybe weren't traditionally there.

是的，这有点挑战，但要做到高度分散，并确保在市场承压时这些资产不相关。

So yeah, it's a bit of a challenge, but being very diversified and making sure that those assets aren't correlated when you get times of stress.

这是目前的关键。

That's key at the moment.

达里乌斯，你提到了一些另类资产，比如黄金、现金，这些是在替代一些长久期债券吗？

And Darius, you mentioned some of the alternatives, the gold, the cash, are those replacing some of the longer dated bonds that were there?

还是说它们也替代了部分股票配置？

Or do they also replace some of the equity allocation as well?

是的，幸运的是，在我们管理的基金范围内，我们很幸运地有稳定且持续的流入。

Yeah, thankfully, in the range of funds that we manage, we are fortunate enough to be in a slow but steady inflow.

实际上，一旦现金流入，你不一定需要卖掉一种资产来买另一种，你可以把那些资金集中在低风险资产上。

Actually, once cash is coming in, you don't necessarily have to sell one asset to buy another, you can just focus those blows on the lower risk assets.

但我们确实调整了我们的久期。

But we certainly moved our duration around.

十二个月前，我们确实配置了英国国债和美国国债，后来我们用更短久期的策略替换了它们，事后看来，幸运的是，这是一个相当不错的决定。

We did have twelve months ago, we had an allocation to gilts and treasuries, and we replaced those with shorter duration strategies, which with hindsight, thankfully has been a pretty good call.

话虽如此，随着债券收益率上升，

That said, with enhanced those bond yields are higher.

我们打算开始重新涉足一些，我该说，较长久期，但中等久期的英国国债资产，因为这些收益率现在开始变得极具吸引力。

We are going to start to dip our toe back into some of those, I'd say, longer duration, but mid duration gilt assets as those yields are now starting to be extremely attractive.

但我们即将面临预算案，我们需要意识到英国的政治可能主导英国国债收益率，以及油价上涨和通胀。

But we do have a budget coming up, and we need to be aware that politics in The UK can dominate gilt yields, as well as oil at higher oil prices and inflation.

现在，你管理的一只基金有收益授权。

Now, one of the funds that you run has an income mandate.

所以我想请教一下，这种策略有哪些机会和挑战？尤其是在当前通胀和债券收益率都较高的环境下。

So what I wanted to ask you is, what are the opportunities and challenges associated with such a strategy, especially at a time now where we're experiencing higher inflation and higher bond yields?

其中有一点……

I mean, one of the things that...

我们使用的工具之一，是也会投资封闭式基金。

One of the tools that we use is we do invest in investment trusts as well.

这能让我们接触到更多样化的、具有收益能力的投资机会。

That does give you a slightly broader set of income yielding opportunities.

可再生能源投资信托是我们多年来一直投资的领域，虽然今年之前的表现不算好，但至少能提供高收益。

An area we've been invested in for a number of years, which until this year was not great, but at least had a high yielding, was renewable investment trusts.

这类资产直接投资于风能、太阳能和生物质能项目，收益率通常都在7%到8%以上，所以你能获得比政府债券更丰厚的收益溢价。

These are assets that invest directly in wind and solar, biomass, typically have yields of north of seven and eight, so you're getting a nice yield premium to the government bonds.

实际上，至少在2026年到目前为止，购买这些资产的折价幅度已经收窄了。一年前我们还能以40%的折扣买入，现在这个折扣已经缩小了不少。

And actually, at least in 2026 so far, some of those discounts that you can buy some of these assets, we certainly could a year ago at 40% discounts, and now that discount has now narrowed.

我们不仅获得了不错的收益，还收到了一些资本返还，这非常有帮助。

And not only are we getting a decent yield, but we've actually had some capital return, which has been very helpful.

但投资信托市场尤其拥有许多多元化的资产。

But the investment trust market particularly has lots of diversified assets.

你可以购买全科诊所、音乐版权、实物资产、飞机和轮船的多年收益。

You can buy years of GP surgeries, music royalties, physical assets, airplanes and ships.

这些资产类别中有很多收益率相当高。

A lot of these asset areas can be quite high yielding.

所以这是我们多年来一直关注的领域。

So is an area we have been focused on for a number of years.

但正如我所说，债券配置的重大变化是缩短了久期，但这并没有真正让我们损失任何收益率。

But as I say, the big change in the bond allocation has been moving shorter duration, but hasn't really cost us any yield.

所以如果你能降低利率风险，同时仍然获得不错的收益率，你可以购买那些投资于投资级高收益交叉债券的基金，但久期通常在三年左右。

So if you can reduce the interest rate risk and still get a good yield, you can buy funds that invest in that investment grade high yield crossover, but with typically durations of around three years.

而且你仍然可以获得6%的收益率。

And you can still get a 6% yield.

所以对于收益策略来说，市场上确实有机会，但关键问题一直是那种顽固且持续的通货膨胀，这也是推动债券收益率上升的主要因素之一。

So there are opportunities out there for income strategies, but you do need mean, the key thing has been that stubborn and persistent inflation, which has been one of the key drivers of those rising bond yields.

而且当收益率上升时，任何长久期资产都可能面临资本压力。

And any long duration assets can have capital stress when those yields rise.

这一点我们一直在非常密切地关注。

Something we watch very, very closely.

所以达里厄斯，显然我们现在处于高通胀、高利率的环境。

So Darius, obviously we've got this higher inflation, higher interest rate world.

这是否改变了我们对优质或具有吸引力的收益的定义呢？

Does that change the definition of a of a of a good or or attractive yield?

在之前通胀几乎为零、债券收益率也接近零的时候，某个资产如果能提供3%的收益率，那确实挺有吸引力的。

You know, when we had basically zero inflation, zero bond yields, three might have been an attractive yield number on an asset.

那么现在，对于一个以获取收益为目的的投资组合来说，资产的收益率要达到4%还是5%，才算是有吸引力呢？

Is it now four or five to be an attractive yield number on an asset for an income portfolio?

没错，你说得很对，David。

Yeah, you're absolutely right, David.

政府债券起始收益率的提高，确实能让债券的整体起始收益率水涨船高。

Those higher starting government bond yields do allow for higher starting yields on bonds.

我觉得你需要注意的一点是利差。

The thing I think you need to be mindful of is the spread.

当你借钱给一家公司时，你得到的是政府债券收益率加上一个利差，这个利差是为了补偿你承担的公司借贷的额外风险。而目前这些利差确实比历史上要窄得多。

When you lend to a company, you get the government bond yield plus a spread for taking the extra risk of lending to a corporate, and that is definitely those spreads are much tighter than they have been historically.

它们处于相当低的水平。

They would be at fairly low levels.

所以你说得很对，因为现在政府债券收益率较高，你可以获得一个不错的起始收益率。

So you're quite right, you can get a good starting yield because of the higher government bond yields that are around.

还有其他资产，比如可再生能源、房地产投资信托基金，它们的收益率也都不错。

There are other there are other assets like renewables, that REITs all have decent yields.

所以通胀和较高的收益率确实是当今的主题，需要小心应对，但这确实意味着你可以获得稍微高一点的起始收益率，是的。

So inflation and higher yields are definitely the narrative of today and something to be careful of, but it does mean you can get a slightly higher starting yield, yes.

好吧，这真是一场非常精彩的对话，但不幸的是，我们的时间到了。

Well, that's been a really engaging conversation, but unfortunately, we're out of time.

但感谢达里乌斯，也感谢大卫抽出时间。

But thank you to Darius, and thank you to David for your time.

谢谢你，阿米娜。

Thank you, Aamina.

谢谢你，阿米娜。

Thank you, Aamina.

阿米娜。

Aamina.

谢谢你，詹姆斯。

Thank you, James.

也感谢我们的观众收听。

And thank you to our audience for tuning in.

下周请继续收听《资产配置者》，你可以在所有播客平台上观看或收听。

Join us next week on Asset Allocator, which you can either watch or listen to across all podcast platforms.

你也可以登录我们的网站 ftadvisor.com/assetsallocator，了解投资组合构建的最新动态，并订阅我们的免费通讯。

You can also log on to our website at ftadvisor.com/assetsallocator for the latest developments within portfolio construction and to sign up to our free newsletter.

下次再见，拜拜。

Until the next time, goodbye.