30. 投资ETF与超级年金

我认为我们都应该认真对待这样一个观点：未来可能并不像我们以为的那样确定，因此对于你所做的那些预测和计算，应该持保留态度，因为它们往往很可能是错误的。

I think we all want to take seriously the idea that the future is probably not as certain as we think it is and you should take those projections and those calculations you make with a grain of salt because they're more often than not likely to be wrong.

也许不至于完全错误，但Excel表格中那种精确性的想法其实很可笑，所以在未来几十年里，不要过度依赖任何单一的计算或单一的情景预测。

Maybe not substantially wrong but the idea of accuracy in an excel spreadsheet is kind of laughable really so don't overexpose yourself to any sort of one calculation or any one scenario working out over the next few decades.

Aussie FIRE播客是Strong Money Australia与Pearler的合作项目，而Pearler是澳大利亚最受欢迎的枯燥型长期投资平台。

The Aussie FIRE podcast is a collaboration between Strong Money Australia and Pearler, Australia's favorite boring long term investing platform.

欢迎我们的主持人——来自Strong Money Australia的Dave和来自Pearler的Hayden，他们将畅谈所有关于财务自由的话题。

Join our hosts, Dave from Strong Money Australia and Hayden from Pearler as they discuss all things financial independence.

在Aussie FIRE，我们非常推崇分享经验并讨论金钱问题。

At Aussie FIRE, we're big fans of sharing experiences and talking about money.

然而，请注意，我们提供的任何建议都是泛泛而谈，并未考虑您的个人财务需求或目标。

However, please note that any advice is general and does not consider your financial needs, or objectives.

请自行判断这些建议是否适合您，如有疑虑，请咨询持牌财务顾问。

Consider whether it's appropriate for you, and if in doubt, speak to a licensed financial adviser.

欢迎

Welcome

回到另一期Aussie FIRE节目。

back to another episode of Aussie FIRE.

所以今天，我们要讨论一个经常被问到的问题：你应该在超级年金之外投资ETF，还是应该专注于最大化你在超级年金中的资金？

So today, we're gonna be talking about a question that actually gets asked quite a lot, and that is, should you invest in ETFs outside of super, or should you focus on maximizing what you have in super?

或者你应该两者结合？

Or should you do a combination of both?

因为这也是一个可行的选择。

Because that's also an option too.

每种情况或每个选择都有其优势，我们今天会详细探讨。

So each of those scenarios or each of those options has its perks, which we'll flesh out today.

它们其实相当不同，即使底层投资可能相同，因为你还得考虑诸如资金可及性、灵活性以及税务效率等因素。

And they I mean, they're quite different to one another even if the underlying investments might be the same because they you know, there's things to consider like access and then flexibility and then tax efficiency as well.

所以我们会尽量在本期节目中拆解所有这些内容。

So we'll try and unpack all of that in today's episode.

我们也会尽量避免只做一个泛泛而谈的优缺点分析，因为那种内容太枯燥了。

And we'll also we'll try to not make it just like a general pros and cons episode because those are pretty boring.

我们会尽量提供一些具体且可操作的、更有意义的信息，以便你能将其融入自己的实际情况中。

We'll we'll aim to give some specific and sort of actionable, more sort of meaningful information wherever we can so you can you can build it into your own scenario.

我们也会分享我们各自对在养老金内还是养老金外投资这一决策的看法。

And we'll also share how, you know, how each of us thinks about this decision, you know, inside versus outside super.

希望你们会觉得这很有趣。

So hopefully, you find it interesting.

所以我认为，戴夫，整个讨论最关键的部分在于养老金的税务效率。

So I I think, Dave, the the biggest part of this whole conversation really centres around the tax efficiency of super.

所以我觉得讨论这一点会很好。

So I think it'd be good to talk about that.

这归结为，当你把钱存入养老金时，养老金所产生的收益会按某个税率征税。

And what this comes down to is, you know, when you put money into super and the earning super generates will be taxed at a certain rate.

而当你从养老金中取出资金时，比如你后来卖出养老金资产，或者在70岁、75岁的时候获得股息，这些也会有不同的征税方式。

And when you get money out of super, as in, you know, you you sell out of super or you get dividends later on in life, like when you're 70, 75, that's also taxed differently.

所以存入时和取出时的税务处理是不同的。

So there's different taxes on the way in and taxes on the way out.

通常来说，这对人们意味着，现在存入养老金的钱，在长期来看会产生更高的收益，因为从整体上看，你为此支付的税款更少。

Usually what this will mean for people is that super in general will result in a dollar you put in now, yielding a higher amount in the long term future because you'll be paying less tax on it in the grand scheme of things.

这基本上就是对这个问题的高层次总结。

That that's the really kind of high level summary of it.

但我想说的是，戴夫，如果真这么简单，那你为什么不把所有钱都存进养老金呢？

But I guess it's like, if it was that simple, Dave, why would you not just put all of your money in super?

我的意思是，对于我们的听众来说，这可能是最核心的问题。

I mean, maybe for our listeners, that's probably the highest level question.

对吧？

Right?

是的，没错。

Like, oh, yeah.

好的。

Okay.

养老金税率低，真不错。

Super sweet lower tax.

我们干脆直接往里面大笔投钱吧。

Let's just go start dumping huge amounts of money into it.

是的。

Yeah.

所以表面上看，这似乎是完美的选择，因为你不仅在存钱时能享受税收优惠，长期来看，投资收益的税率也可能更低。

So it sounds like the perfect option, I suppose, on the surface because not only do you get a tax break for putting money in, but then you also potentially have a lower tax on the investment returns over time.

而这最终会带来长期的总财富增长。

And then that can end up with total wealth over the long term.

而且，由于投资组合的价值更高，未来还能获得更高的收入流。

And then also a higher income stream from that wealth later because obviously the value of that portfolio is higher.

所以从理论上讲，这完全说得通。

So it makes perfect sense in theory.

我想提到一下这种做法的缺点，第一个可能很明显，那就是你可能在相当长的一段时间内无法动用这笔钱。

I suppose to touch on what the drawbacks of that might be is the first one's probably obvious and that's that you don't get access to that money or you lose access to that money for potentially a considerable period of time.

就我个人而言，这是养老金最大的缺点，也正因如此，我根本没往养老金里额外投钱，而是专注于在养老金之外建立投资，因为我希望比传统退休年龄早得多地退休，以至于考虑到时间跨度，投资养老金根本没意义。

In my own personal experience, this was the main drawback of super and this was actually unattractive enough for me to not put any money additionally into super at all and just focus on exclusively building investments outside super because I wanted to retire much earlier than traditional retirement age to the point where it didn't really make sense investing in super because of the time frame involved.

所以，如果你从一个角度来想，养老金里可能积累更多的财富，但如果你几十年都无法动用这笔钱，拥有这笔财富的实际意义有多大呢？

So I suppose if you think about it in one way, there's a potential to have a much higher amount of wealth in super, but if you can't access that wealth for potentially decades, how effective is it to actually have that wealth?

因为它并不能让你以任何有意义的方式改变当前的生活方式或生存状态。

Because it doesn't allow you to change your current lifestyle or your current existence in any meaningful way.

所以我更倾向于把钱放在养老金之外，这样我就能更快地改善自己的生活状况，而不是等到养老金领取时才有所改变。

So I would much prefer to have money outside super and then that would allow me to change my personal circumstances in a way that I'm happier with much sooner than than waiting for super.

即使我一路上多交税，即使我总体财富更少。

Even even if I pay more tax along the way and even if I have less wealth in total overall.

所以，希望这能说清楚。

So hopefully, that makes sense.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，

I mean,

我认为，谈到养老金的税务效率问题时，对我而言关键在于：无论你是靠资产股息生活，还是靠出售资产变现，你都需要在60岁前拥有一定数额的资金来维持生活。

I I guess the I guess when it comes to the super tax efficiency argument, where it really comes back to for me is, well, you're gonna need a certain amount of money to live off, whether that includes, you know, dividends from assets or whether that's you selling it down and you're gonna need that before you're 60.

这对每个人来说都是真的，你不能把本打算在45岁或50岁就要用的钱放进超级年金里。

And that's true for everyone, you know, like you can't put money into your super that you're gonna need to somehow touch when you're 45 or 50.

真正有趣的问题是，一旦你存够了足够通过股息或逐步变现来舒适生活到60岁的钱，那多余的錢该怎么处理？

The real interesting question is like, once you put enough money aside that you can comfortably live off through the dividends or selling down up till the age of 60, what do you do with the extra money?

你是应该继续加大非超级年金投资组合的投入，然后在60岁后靠这个非超级年金组合生活？

Do you double down on that and put more of it in your non super portfolio and then live off your non super portfolio after you're 60?

还是把钱放进超级年金，以享受税收优惠？

Or do you put it into super so that, you know, you get that tax advantage?

这就变成了一种有趣的权衡：如果你知道在99%的情况下，这笔钱直到60岁才需要动用，那么失去控制权以及那1%的风险，是否值得换取更高质量的生活——毕竟钱最终转化成的正是生活质量，或者在某些情况下，还能让你少工作几年，只要你算得清楚，因为你可以用更少的投入获得同样的被动收入或生活质量，随着年龄增长。

And then it just becomes an interesting trade off between, well, if you know you're not gonna need that money till you're 60 in like 99% of cases, is the loss of control and the risk of that 1% worth the actual basically, you know, higher quality of life, essentially, that's what you know, money turns into, or in some cases, actually working less years as well, if you can do the numbers properly, because you'll need less, you know, need to put in less to get that same kind of passive income or quality of life as you get older.

从我的角度来看，戴夫，这正是最难把握的部分，平衡那些我暂时不需要的钱——在我这里，我31岁。

And I think that's that's the tricky part from my perspective, Dave, balancing that, you know, that money I don't need for not in my case, I'm 31.

对吧？

Right?

那些我29年内都不会用到的钱，我该往超级年金里放多少，又该放多少不放？

The money I don't need for twenty nine years, how much do I put it into super or not?

有趣的是，你提到你没怎么存钱。

And it's funny you mentioned you mentioned you haven't really put much money.

你一点额外的钱都没存进养老金账户。

You haven't put any extra money into super.

就我而言，过去三四年我收入不错，所以我往养老金账户里存了一笔相当可观的钱，主要是为了享受税收减免。

In my case, I put a pretty sizable amount of money into my super, mostly for the the tax deduction over the last three or four years when I've I've had, you know, better income on my side.

我觉得我的养老金余额中，超过一半是自愿缴款，或者至少有一半左右吧，这是我估计的。

I reckon more than half my super balances is voluntary contributions or probably about half would would be my guess.

我可能直接从储蓄账户里存进去的钱，比应该存的还要多，我得再核对一下。

I've probably put in more money directly out of my savings account than my I should double check that.

但我很确定，过去四五年的总存入额大约有八万美元，这是我估计的。

But I'm pretty sure I put in something like maybe $80,000 into my super over the last four or five years would would be my guess.

因为我觉得，我可能到晚年才需要这笔钱。

Because, know, I'm like, well, I probably don't need that money till I'm later.

但万一有一天我发现自己运气真好，看着这些多出来的钱，心想，嘿，这真是意外之喜。

But whilst there's a scenario where I could turn out laughing one day being like, look at this little look at this little bit of extra, you know, stuff I have.

还有另一种情况，我会想：天哪。

There's another scenario where I could be like, oh, no.

我想买我梦想中的房子，但我之前存进养老金的所有钱，现在都不能用了。

I wanna buy my dream home, but all that money that I put into super, I can't use it anymore.

我没法把它变现了。

I can't liquidate it anymore.

所以这是一个棘手的权衡。

So it is a tricky trade off.

嗯，这正是我想说的。

Well, that's that's the thing I suppose.

那我们来具体讨论一下，什么时候更应该专注于养老金，什么时候又更应该关注养老金以外的投资？

So let's let's actually run through when does it make more sense to focus on super and when does it make more sense to focus outside super?

作为一些大致的指导原则，之后我们再讨论如何结合两者以及其中涉及的权衡。

As some general rules of thumb, and then we'll talk about combining both and the trade offs involved with those.

在我看来，当你预期退休时间接近养老金提取年龄时，更应该专注于养老金并尽可能最大化投入。

I mean, to my mind, when it makes more sense to focus on super and maximizing that as much as possible is when it is in a scenario where you do expect to retire somewhere close to the super access age.

这对大多数人来说应该很明显。

That should be quite obvious to most people.

或者到你愿意以某种方式继续工作的地步。

Or to a point where you're happy to continue working in some capacity.

也许只是兼职，也许从40岁、50岁或任何年龄开始，直到达到养老金提取年龄。

Maybe it's just part time, maybe it's from the age of 40 or 50 or whatever until you get to the super access age.

这些是思考这个问题的几种简单方式。

Those are a couple of simple ways to think about it.

我认为，很多人，尤其是在我的社群中，注意到有不少人计划采用这种双重策略，你可以称之为两阶段策略：一部分财富在养老金之外，另一部分在养老金之内。

I think that a lot of people, especially in my community, noticed quite a few people are planning to use this double I suppose you would call it a two phase strategy where you're you've got some wealth outside super and some wealth inside super.

而这些人中的许多实际上计划进行某种形式的半退休，而不是完全退休。

And many of those people are actually planning to do some form of semi retirement rather than total retirement.

这只是我观察到的一个现象。

So that's just an observation that I've had.

我想，养老金更有优势的另外几点是，当你只是遵循一种更普遍的长期财富积累策略，专注于积累财富，而并不打算提前退休，甚至根本不打算早退——不过在我们这个社群里，可能没多少人是这样，因为这基本上是个FIRE（财务独立，提前退休）早退社群。

I suppose another couple of reasons where super wins out is when you're just following more of a general long term wealth strategy where you're just focused on building wealth and you're not actually wanting to retire much earlier or early at all, which may actually not be many people in this community because it's sort of a FIRE early retirement community.

但就长期而言，也许采用朴素的投资方式，那么养老金确实非常合理，因为你不会介意无法随时动用这笔钱，而且你可能也打算按照更传统的时间表退休。

But the general long term, maybe the barefoot style of investing, then obviously super makes quite a bit of sense because you're not going to be bothered not having access to that money and you're probably aiming for a more traditional timeframe in terms of your retirement.

然后你之前提到过，伙计，另一种情况是你在外头的养老金之外已经积累了足够的财富，足以支撑你到60岁，那时你就可以提取养老金了。

And then you touched on it before, mate, but the other scenario is where you've actually got enough wealth outside super to carry you to age 60 and when you can begin accessing that super.

所以有很多情况下，大力增加养老金投入是非常明智的。

So there's quite a few scenarios where it makes a lot of sense to, like, load up on super.

如果我们聚焦在那些适合将资金投入养老金之外的情况，我认为对普通人来说，最突出的一点就是用这笔钱作为购房贷款的资本。

So if we focus on investing outside of your super in the scenarios where that makes sense, I think, you know, for a typical person, probably the one that's gonna be front and center is access to capital for a mortgage.

你知道，无论是首付，主要还是首付。

You know, whether it's deposits, mostly just the deposit.

我的意思是，前几天我坐着想，要是哪天能在悉尼买一套房子，比如一栋房子，那该多好。

Mean, gosh, you know, I was sitting around the other day thinking about, oh, it'd be really nice to buy a home in Sydney one day, you know, like a like a house somewhere.

那得花多少钱？

Oh, what's that gonna cost?

大概三百万澳元？

Like, $3,000,000?

那20%是多少？

What's 20% of that?

天哪。

Oh my god.

差不多60万澳元。

It's like $600,000.

就像我提到的，把每年8万澳元存入养老金，我真的可能会觉得舍不得。

You know, like putting that 80 k I mentioned away into super, like, I really might miss that.

所以至少在这一点上，房贷绝对是首要考虑的问题。

So I think mortgage is definitely front and center of the mind on that topic at least.

另一个原因是，你根本不太信任养老金体系。

The other one is is definitely when you just don't trust the super system.

这恐怕也是我听到的第二常见理由，人们觉得养老金体系随时可能变化。

That's probably up there as well with like number two that I hear is people being like, anything can change with super.

我觉得这确实很有道理。

I think that's very true.

你看，你不可能掌控一切，但有些事情是你能控制的，有些则控制得少一些。

Like, you can't control everything, but there's certain things you can control and certain things you control less.

我个人可能会稍微反驳一下这个观点，说我20岁的时候也这么想，但现在我31岁了，感觉醒悟了。

I'll personally probably throw in a slight mild counter to this one and say that I used to think that when I was like 20, and then I feel like I've woken up and I'm 31 now.

我意识到，自己离60岁比想象中快得多。

And I'm like, oh, I'll be 60 way sooner than I can possibly imagine.

因为年轻的时候，你很容易觉得，那还远得很，未来有无数种可能都会改变。

In the sense that I think when you're young, it's probably really easy to be like, oh, that's like a forever away, a million different things could change.

但世界和公共政策在人生中，似乎总有一种方式，悄悄地袭向人们。

But the world and public policy have a great way of just in life have a great way I think of sneaking up on people.

所以，至少在这一点上，我补充一点：它们确实可以改变。

So that's probably like one thing to add on balance at least with that, but they can change it.

没有任何东西能阻止它们做出改变。

Nothing stops them from changing it.

你会发现很多愤世嫉俗的人会说，迟早有一天，政府会向养老金征税，因为这是最容易推行的税种——政府财政吃紧，而没人会注意到自己养老金账户里少了点钱，但要是调高个税税率，大家立马就会察觉。

You'll see a lot of the cynics will be, you know, say that, well, you know, at some point, they're gonna have to tax super because it's the easiest tax to introduce because the government's low on revenue and no one's gonna miss the money in their super, like, they're gonna notice an income tax bracket and etcetera etcetera.

其他人可能会说，如果真是这样，那为什么他们每年都在提高强制性供款比例呢？

Other people could say if that was the case, why are they increasing the super compulsory contribution every year?

你知道，好像他们真的很重视这个。

You know, like, seems like they're really into it.

关于这一点，你可以没完没了地讨论，但这确实是个值得提出的问题。

You could talk for hours on that one back and forth, but that's definitely a reasonable question to ask.

确实，有很多调整和拟议中的调整，你知道的。

Well, there's there's definitely a lot of tinkering and proposed tinkering that goes on, you know.

所以，我确实觉得这是人们合理担忧的问题。

So I I do feel that that is a valid concern that people have.

我认为，与其说是对养老金体系不信任，不如说是因为长期不断出现的拟议调整，导致了不确定性。

I think it's more so I suppose it's not so much being distrusting of the system, the super system, and more so just the lack of certainty because of the proposed tinkering that tends to happen over time.

正如你所说，如果政府想增加税收，养老金是个相当容易下手的目标，因为那里有大量资金正等着被征税或一点点蚕食，我想这么说也没错。

And like you said, if if the government wants to raise more taxes, super is a pretty a pretty easy pot to start tinkering with because there's a huge amount of money just sitting there waiting to be waiting to be taxed or nibbled at, I suppose you could say.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Definitely.

而且，我认为这正是人们不愿额外向养老金供款的两个主要原因。

And I mean, they're they're kind of the main two reasons that people would just avoid contributing extra to super.

第三个原因则更多与你实际供款多少有关，而这又取决于你距离60岁——也就是你的养老金提取年龄——还有多久，你需要动用这些资金，你知道的。

And then the third kind of reasons, which are more about how much you contribute really, again, just depends on how far before 60, you know, that preservation age, whatever it is for you, how far before that you actually need the funds, you know.

所以就戴夫的情况而言，戴夫大概是35岁左右吧，我记得是这样。

So in Dave's case, you know, is Dave is a I don't know, you're like 35 or something, I think, from memory.

而戴夫需要提前25年规划好自己的财务，才能动用养老金账户里的钱。

And the Dave needs twenty five years worth of figuring out his finances before he can ever tap into the super funds.

因此，这个时间跨度越长，人们在供款方式上的选择也会随之变化。

So also the longer that period is, it's going to change a lot for people in terms of how they put it in.

有些人可能会说，35岁的时候供款更容易，因为我有25年的时间让资金随市场增长，你知道的；但也有人会说，这里面其实还有一些反复权衡的地方。

Some people might say, well, it's even easier to put it in when I'm 35 because I've got twenty five years to ride the market up, you know, and other people might say, you know, that there's a few little back and forths there.

不过，我刚才和戴夫聊天的时候，其实一直在思考这个问题。

But I think I was thinking about this while I was chatting to Dave.

我认为，为了让更多不太熟悉养老金话题的人真正明白，也许你只是在一般性地考虑财务自由。

I think to really make it crystal clear for people who maybe aren't as familiar with the super topic, maybe you've been thinking about financial independence just generally.

核心在于，当你从养老金账户中获得股息时，这些收益本质上是免税的。

The core of it becomes when you get paid dividends from your super fund, they're essentially tax free.

而当你从普通投资组合中获得股息时，则需要缴纳所得税。

Whereas when you get dividends from your normal portfolio, you pay income tax on it.

所以，如果你从VAS基金或某些更简单的、不含抵免的基金（比如NDQIVV）中获得10万美元收入，这是一笔来自ETF的10万美元收入。

So if you're getting a $100,000 from your VAS or you know, maybe something simpler without franking credits, know, you have like NDQIVV, that's a $100,000 income from the ETF.

你需要为这笔收入缴纳所得税。

You pay income tax on that.

根据具体的税率，你大概只能剩下7万多元。

You got about 75 odd thousand left depending on the specific tax rates.

但如果你从养老金账户中获得10万美元，你就能拿到完整的10万美元。

You got a 100,000 from your super fund, you get 100,000, broadly speaking.

这意味着，如果你希望获得一定数额的税后被动收入，你需要的养老金账户余额会更低。

And what that means is that if you want a certain amount of post tax passive income, you need a lower super balance to make that happen.

但问题是，你得在短期内把这笔钱锁定起来，而且 upfront 还得交一点税，这让情况变得复杂了。

But the problem is you've got to lock that away in the short term, and then you have to pay a little bit of tax on it upfront, which complicates the board.

我现在不谈这个。

I'm not going to talk about that now.

但这就是关键的敏感点。

But that that's kind of the sensitivity.

所以你可能会想，那为什么我不直接用最小的养老金余额，也能达到同样的效果呢？

So you might be thinking, well, why wouldn't I just get the smallest super balance and get the same outcome?

但同样，你可能在短期内需要这笔钱来还房贷或维持生活。

But again, might need the money for mortgage money to live off it in the short term.

有些人还说，戴夫，紧急情况也是把钱留在养老金之外的另一个原因。

Some people say emergencies as well, Dave, is another reason to keep it outside of super.

但如果你去查一下澳大利亚税务局的养老金官网，我正在边看边快速搜索一下，通常你可以因为各种情况申请提前取出养老金。

But if you actually go to like the superannuation ATO website, I'm just googling it quickly whilst I'm I'm having a look, but you can usually apply to get money out of super for various circumstances.

所以我只是快速浏览了一份政府的PDF文件。

So I'm just like at at a quick glance looking at a government PDF.

我认为在经济困难和医疗需求等情况下是可以的。

I think you can for financial hardship and medical needs and stuff like that.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

所以，我想我这里有一个是关于绝症的情况。

So, like, I think I have one here that's terminal medical condition.

如果你患有绝症，就可以提前提取养老金。

So if you have a terminal medical condition, you can access super early.

所以，我可能会借此机会指出，有很多令人恐惧的情形。

So I I'd probably maybe use that opportunity to just point out that there is a lot of kind of very fearful scenarios.

但政府实际上也考虑到了一些情况，允许你在这些紧急需求下提取资金。

But then there's also some the government has actually worked into it and been like, you can actually get that money out if you like in these scenarios desperately needed as well.

对。

Yeah.

这么说确实合理。

That's that's fair to say.

那么，关于这个，显然每种策略都有利有弊，那如果我们结合两种方法，根据我们的时间框架来发挥各自的优势，会怎么样呢？

So how about the I Obviously there's pros and cons of each strategy, so what about the idea of using both and how we can work them both to our advantage depending on the timeframe we have?

我想我们应该通过一个例子来说明这种方法在实际中如何运作，以及可能存在的风险。

I suppose we should go through an example to explain how that would work in practice and then what the risks of that might be.

是的。

Yeah.

在开始之前，因为我超爱这个话题。

And just before we start, because I love this stuff.

这种双管齐下的方法正是我的最爱，也是我经常思考的。

This two pronged approach is my kind of jam and what I think about.

但先确认一下，你自己并不喜欢这个方法，对吧？

But just to check, you don't like this one yourself, do you?

你更倾向于完全不管养老金，就想把所有钱都拿出来。

You're more of the whole, I just want it all outside of super, screw super.

嗯这个方法不适合我，因为涉及到的时间框架不匹配。

Well, it's not for me because of the time frame involved.

你知道的，对我来说情况是这样的：如果我打算28岁或者30岁就退休，那我基本上得攒出够花一辈子的钱才行。

You know, because how it worked for me is if I was retiring at, like, 28 or 30 or something, I basically needed enough to last forever anyway.

哪怕就算我只需要撑过30年的开销，那也得备足这笔钱。

Because if I have I would need enough to last thirty years.

而如果我需要攒出够花30年的钱，那其实和攒出一个能支撑一辈子的投资组合根本是一回事。

And so if I need enough to last thirty years, that's basically the same as needing a portfolio that's gonna last forever.

所以我基本上没法那么做，而且鉴于我还有三十年才能领取养老金，我也没兴趣把这当成一种策略。

So I basically wasn't able to, but I also wasn't interested in using that as a strategy based on that sort of timeframe of being thirty years away from being able to access it.

那以你目前的个人状况来说，你的意思是你已经有了一份可以靠它过一辈子的投资组合？

So in your personal circumstances right now, you're saying, I have a portfolio where I will just live on that forever.

哪怕等到了能领养老金的年纪，那笔钱也不过是我多工作了几年攒下的额外收入，它还在复利增值，但我根本用不上。

And even when I reach super access age, that'll just be some extra money from my several years of working a tiny bit extra money, and it's compounding, but I don't need it.

你的情况就是，你完全可以只靠养老金之外的资产生活，养老金就纯粹是一笔额外收入。

You're like, I could just live off non super Super's just a bonus thing.

这正是你想到的。

That's what comes to your mind.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

这基本上就是我对它的看法和处理方式。

That's pretty much how I think about it and how I approach it.

所以，我现在的情况是，如果我手头有多余的现金，而且我的税率逐渐上升，那么养老金账户就会变得更有吸引力，因为往里面存钱可以享受税收抵扣，同时也不会影响我在60岁或达到提取年龄前保持财务独立的能力。

So I suppose I'm now in a scenario where if I come into excess cash and maybe as my tax rate creeps up, then super starts to become more attractive because by putting money in there, I can get the tax deduction obviously, but it's also not going to affect my ability to remain financially independent until age 60 or access age, whatever that may be.

所以我会以一种不会让我遭受将资金存入养老金账户主要缺点的方式去做。

So I'll do it in a way that it's it's not gonna I'm not gonna suffer the the main drawback of putting it into super.

因此，在现在到60岁之间的某个阶段，我确实会每年向养老金账户供款，但在当前情况下，我并没有这么做。

So there is a scenario right now between now and 60 where I do contribute yearly to super, but under current circumstances, I'm not I'm not doing it.

这说得通。

That makes sense.

而且我觉得，因为这个话题一开始确实挺让人困惑的，我想对听众们说明一下。

And I think again just because I I find this topic quite confusing initially to tell people who are listening.

戴夫本可以采取的一种更充分利用养老金的方式，其实是他可能早在六个月前，甚至一年前就停止工作。

One one approach Dave could have taken to utilize super more was actually he might have been able to stop working maybe call it six months prior, maybe twelve months prior.

而不是永远依赖这个投资组合生活，他本可以考虑每年从中提取一点点，比如卖出1%，用来填补这个空缺，而不是仅仅依赖被动收入——这可能比他目前的做法更有效。

And instead of just living off this portfolio forever, he could have tried to factor in eating a little bit of that portfolio every year, selling off like 1%, just a little bit every year to cover that gap, you know, rather than just rely solely on passive income, more so than he might already be doing potentially.

这样做的理念是，当他接近养老金领取年龄时，他的非养老金资产差不多已经用尽或即将用尽，但这没关系，因为你已经达到了养老金领取的节点。

And the idea being that when he gets close to super, he's essentially run out of or gotten more close to running out of his non super assets, but that doesn't matter because you've now hit the super point.

但从戴夫的角度来看，他可能会想：我不知道二十五年后会发生什么。

But again, you can imagine from Dave's perspective, he's sitting here being like, I don't know what's gonna happen in twenty five years.

我怎么可能提前一点停止工作，重新调配资金，每年卖出一点点呢？谁又能真正想象得到这些呢？

How the hell am I meant to just stop working a little bit sooner and redirect funds and sell off a little like who the hell could even imagine that?

这简直是一团乱麻。

It's complete kerfuffle.

所以这是一个非常有趣的观点，但我不会再继续打扰你了，戴夫。

So it's it's a really interesting point, but I won't I won't distract you anymore, Dave.

是的

Yeah.

在如此长的时间跨度下，有太多可能对你不利的场景，这些情况你无法预测，也根本无法规划，纯粹是因为时间跨度太大。

There's too many scenarios with such a long time frame like that where things can move against you in a way that you can't predict or you just you can't plan for just due to the sheer timeframe involved.

那些人构建复杂的电子表格，试图预测未来三、四十年的情况，真是让我发笑，仿佛他们真能知道未来三、四十年会发生什么——无论是把养老金和非养老金资产结合起来，还是长期回报率、通胀率、税率等等。

It makes me laugh, these people that build these complicated spreadsheets mapping out thirty or forty years into the future, as if they could possibly know what the next thirty or forty years is going to hold, whether it's combining super plus outside super and long term return rates and inflation rates and tax rates and all that.

这本质上是无法预知的。

It's basically unknowable.

你可以用历史作为参考，这已经是最好的情况了，也是你对未来做出判断的最佳依据，但我认为我们都应该认真看待一个观点：未来很可能没有我们想象的那么确定，因此你对这些预测和计算应该持保留态度，因为它们十有八九都是错误的。

You can use history as a guide and that's the best case scenario and that's the best thing you can use to make judgements about the future, but I think we all want to take seriously the idea that the future is probably not as certain as we think it is, and you should take those projections and those calculations you make with a grain of salt because they're more often than not likely to be wrong.

也许不会错得太离谱，但Excel表格里那种精确性的想法，其实挺可笑的。

Maybe not substantially wrong, but the idea of accuracy in an Excel spreadsheet is kind of laughable really.

所以，不要在未来几十年里过度依赖某一种计算或某种情景的实现。

So don't overexpose yourself to any sort of one calculation or any one scenario working out over the next few decades.

说到计算，你能不能给我们讲讲你的计算方式？

Speaking of calculations, why don't you take us through yours?

顺利过渡，老兄。

Smooth transition, mate.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我这里整理了一个小例子，来说明这种两阶段策略在实际中可能是什么样子。

So I put together a little example here to explain what this two phase strategy might look like in practice.

假设有人构建了一个个人投资组合，比如50万美元的ETF，另外还有50万美元的养老金。

So if we take a scenario where someone builds a personal portfolio of, say, half $1,000,000 in ETFs, and then they've also got half $1,000,000 in super as well.

他们大约在45岁时达成了这个目标。

And they managed to do that by, say, 45 years old.

这意味着在未来15年里，他们必须依靠个人投资组合生活，直到60岁才能提取养老金。

So that'll be fifteen years where they have to live off their personal portfolio until they can hit their super access age at age 60.

总共是一百万美元。

That's a million dollars overall.

我们姑且假设这个人每年支出4万美元。

And let's just, for argument's sake, say that this person spends $40,000 a year.

基本上，他们将依靠财富的4%来生活。

Basically, they are going to live off 4% of their wealth.

从技术上讲，就目前的数字而言，他们已经实现了财务自由。

And technically, as of right now, they're financially independent because of the numbers.

因此，在超级养老金组合持续增长的同时，他们需要依靠个人投资组合来维持生活。

So they'll have to live off the personal portfolio while the super portfolio keeps growing in the background.

所以当他们达到60岁时，个人投资组合会大幅减少，但超级养老金组合却持续增长，届时将变得更大。

So what happens now is when they reach age 60, the personal portfolio will have reduced quite a bit, but the super portfolio would have kept growing and now that'll be much larger.

然后他们就可以在那时同时动用这两个部分的投资组合。

And then they can have the benefit of accessing both parts of the portfolio at that point.

我想这听起来很不错，因为你能够同时受益于两种情况，某种程度上兼得两者之长，因此这个策略是相当合理的。

And I suppose that sounds It sounds pretty good because you get to benefit from both scenarios and both because you get the best of both worlds in some way, so it reasonably can well.

但老实说，我觉得这里还有一些事情没有被提及，而我并没有在讨论中看到它们。

But I suppose there's a few things to mention here that I I don't really see mentioned as part of the conversation, if I'm honest.

主要的风险在于，个人投资组合的消耗速度会比你预期的快得多，因为你会经常看到网上那些计算器所模拟的场景——它们会帮你预测在十五年、二十年、三十年内实施这种两阶段策略的情况。

And the main the main risk is that the personal portfolio depletes much faster than you expect because you'll often see this with calculators that get made online and things like that that will help you project out a certain scenario over fifteen, twenty years, thirty years where you're doing this two phase strategy.

虽然这些工具对于预测平均情况很有用，但在实际退休并依靠个人投资组合生活时，以这个例子来说，这个人每年从50万美元的个人ETF中提取4万美元。

And although they're useful for projecting an average scenario, when you actually go to retire and live off your personal portfolio In this example, the person is pulling $40 a year out of their $500 of personal ETFs.

尽管他们的养老金账户在后台增长，但他们仍从这个投资组合中以8%的初始提取率取款。

Now, although they have their super in the background, they're still pulling 8% per year as an initial withdrawal rate out of this one portfolio.

所以问题在于，如果在这一阶段的头几年，甚至前五、七、八年里市场大幅下跌，而其他条件保持不变，这个投资组合极有可能被严重耗尽。

So the problem with that is if the market turns down heavily in the first few years or the first five or even seven, eight years of this scenario, it's very, very likely that this portfolio ends up heavily depleted if they keep everything else relatively the same.

养老金账户虽然在后台，但无法动用，因此他们直到60岁之前都完全依赖这个个人投资组合。

It's just not helpful that super's there in the background because they're not able to access it, so they're still totally reliant on this personal portfolio until age 60.

当然，也有一些方法可以让这种情况奏效，就像在完全依靠养老金之外的完整投资组合生活时，也有办法让普通情况成功一样。

There are ways to make it work, just like there are ways to make a normal scenario work where you're totally living off a full portfolio outside of super.

但这是一个我很少看到被提及的风险。

But that is definitely a risk that I don't see mentioned very much.

就是这个投资组合的耗尽速度会比预期快得多。

Just the idea that that portfolio is going to deplete a lot faster.

当你从中提取相当高的比例，而市场又出现下跌时，这种影响会被进一步放大。

And when you're pulling decent percentages from it and then the market turns down, that's going to be amplified even further.

海登，你怎么看？

What say you, Hayden?

我的工程师思维立刻想开始制作一些包含风险偏好和其他各种因素的计算器，因为我觉得这真的很有意思。

I mean, my my engineering brain immediately wants to start making calculators with risk appetites and, you know, various other things in it because I think it is really interesting.

我认为中间还有一些方法。

I think there's approaches in the middle.

比如说，你说得对。

You know, like, I'd say, you're right.

还有，像你这样现在35岁的人，到了45岁或50岁时，可能会对自己有更深的了解。

There's also a point too where someone like yourself, like you're 35 right now, you might get to 45 or 50 and go, I know myself so well.

我能看清未来了。

I can see the horizon.

无论如何，你可能会开始把资金转入养老金账户，并提前退出市场，以获得更好的收益。

Nothing might actually stop you starting to funnel money into super anyway and start kind of selling out earlier to yield a better benefit.

但让我觉得有趣的是，你提到的这种情景，人们可以带着一两种不同的目标来应对。

But I I think what's interesting to me about it is that this scenario you talk about, people can approach it with one or two different aims.

其中之一是，我想弄清楚如何在相同的工作和投资投入下，获得更高的生活质量。

One of them would be, I want to figure out how to get a high quality of life for the same input of work and investing.

你知道，我该如何最大化养老金的效率，以便在不更努力工作的情况下变得更富有，同时应对其中伴随的风险？

You know, how can I maximize the the effectiveness of super so that I can end up richer without having to work harder and bring, you know, deal with the risk associated with that?

但我认为最让我感兴趣的是：我能否更早地停止工作？

But the one I think that interests me the most is probably the one around can can I stop working sooner?

这大概一直是我最关心的问题，因为我的想法比较基础——这确实很难，因为我也同意你的观点，你说这风险很高，未来谁也说不准。

That's probably always the main thing on my mind because my kind of rudimentary it's kind of hard because like, I agree with you, and you're like, super risky, and who knows the future.

但我已经写过这些计算器，也研究过养老金的税务优惠，当你输入数据后，突然意识到你可能少工作一两年就能实现目标。

But I've written these calculators, and I've looked at the tax benefit of super, and when you plug it in, and you suddenly realize that you might be able to work, stop working like a year or two less.

这听起来真的很值得认真考虑，你知道的。

It's like, that sounds worth really thinking about, you know.

但也许这又只是年轻人的天真和不成熟在作祟。

But, you know, maybe that's just again, youthfulness and naiveness kinda coming through there.

我的意思是，就你的想法而言，如果你也具备相当程度的个人灵活性，那这么做绝对没什么问题。

I mean, to the credit of your idea there, I think there's absolutely nothing wrong with doing that if you also have a decent level of personal flexibility.

所以，如果你不介意在情况不如预期时做一点兼职工作来调节一下，或者稍微少花一点钱，同时拥有一定的现金缓冲，那就可以做到。

So if you're if you don't mind maybe doing a little bit of part time work to to sort of smooth things out if things aren't going to plan, if you can do that or spend a little bit less and you've got a cash buffer or something like that.

如果你能通过调整数字和现实生活中的实际情况，让计划顺利实施，那我确实同意，这绝对会带来最佳的长期财务结果。

Like, if you can just massage the numbers and your real life scenario in such a way to make it work, then I do agree that that will absolutely lead to probably the best financial long term outcome.

但我发现，现实中很少有人愿意承担这种风险，尽管理论上听起来很棒。

I just don't see many people wanting to take that risk in practice, even though it sounds great in theory.

相反，更多的人，尤其是这个群体，似乎更追求确定性和安全感，而不是其他。

If anything, more people, especially in this community seem to be looking for more certainty and more security and not.

我的意思是，灵活性非常强大，这正是我过去多次谈论和写过的话题，但它并不受欢迎。

I mean, flexibility is pretty powerful and that's something that I've, I suppose, ranted about quite a bit in the past and written about, but it's not something that's super popular.

我正努力让灵活性变得有魅力，伙计，但这很难。

I'm I'm trying to make I'm trying to make flexibility sexy, mate, but it's difficult.

很多人喜欢明确的确定性和安全感。

A lot of people like concrete certainty and security.

我自己当初追求财务自由时，也希望能永远不再工作。

I also myself approached my financial independence wanting to not ever have to work again.

所以我个人并不想被迫保持灵活性，尽管我现在已经意识到它有多么强大，尤其是当你把一些灵活性数据输入到这些计算器中时。

So I personally didn't want to have to be flexible, even though I've now seen just how powerful it can be, especially when you plug in some flexibility numbers into some of these calculators.

顺便说一下，谈到计算时，我发现有一个计算器可以帮助你解决这个问题，它还能帮你调整数字，算出不同层次的灵活性实际上能多大程度上延长你的投资组合和财务自由的可持续时间。

And just while we're talking about doing calculations, there is one calculator that can help you with this that I've found and it can also help you massage the numbers to work out how much different levels of flexibility will actually help you sustain your portfolio and your financial independence for a longer time frame.

这个计算器叫做‘富有、穷困还是死亡’，是一个后退休计算器。

That the calculator is called it's called rich, broke, or dead, and it's a post FIRE calculator.

你可以输入你的数据，比如在这个例子中，我假设这个人45岁退休，需要靠这笔钱活到60岁。

And so it'll it'll you can plug in your numbers and you can do a time frame like with this one where I'm saying the person's going to retire at 45 and they need to live on the money until 60.

所以你可以实际输入50万美元，每年提取4万美元，希望这笔钱能支撑15年。

So what you can do is you can actually put in half $1,000,000 and I'm pulling out $40 a year and I want it to last fifteen years.

这个方案现实吗？安全吗？

How realistic or how safe is that as an option?

然后你可以设定，我愿意接受相当于这笔金额20%的灵活性，或者类似的比例。

And then you can say, I wanna be I'm I'm willing to have flexibility of 20% of of that amount of money or something like that.

你可以调整很多不同的参数，尝试提高你目标的历史成功率，这绝对值得去研究清楚。

So there's a lot of different parameters you can adjust and try and boost your the success rate, historically speaking, of of what you're trying to do, and that's definitely worth figuring out.

但说实话，这确实是个难题。

But, yeah, it's a tough one, man.

我肯定会说，尽管数字表明，如果你能的话，全力投入超级年金并大幅向这个方向配置听起来很不错，但还有很多心理因素会阻止人们这么做。

I would definitely say that although the numbers suggest that going all in on super and heavily allocating towards that in that direction if you can, I'd say there's there's quite a few psychological considerations that would prevent people from doing that even if it sounds great on paper.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这个话题的有趣之处就在于它不是非黑即白的，你不必非得全投或者完全不投。

I mean, think that's the cool thing about the topic is it's not as binary, you know, like you don't have to not put it in or put it all in or anything like that.

我的确不会那样做。

I mean, I certainly don't.

我想稍微再具体说明一下。

I think maybe just to paint that out slightly more for a second.

我往超级年金里存钱的主要原因，并不是因为我坐那儿仔细盘算过我到底该存多少，或者我设定了什么具体目标。

The main reason I put money into super wasn't because I sat around thinking, oh, I know exactly what I need to put into super or I've got some date set out.

纯粹是因为，有几年我的收入远高于平均水平。

It was purely because, you know, for a few years there I was earning above average free income.

我当时想，这里有个税收优惠，可以抵税。

And I thought, well, there's a tax benefit here, a tax deduction.

我采取的方法是，假设你处于37.5%的税率档次。

And the approach I took with it was, let's say for argument's sake, you're in the 37.5% tax bracket.

政府在资金进入养老金账户时会收取15%的税。

The government takes 15% of your super on the way in.

所以你基本上得从这个税率中减去15%。

So you pretty much have to take 15% off that.

也就是说，用37.5%减去15%。

So you take 15% off 37.5.

剩下的就是22.5%。

You're now left with 22.5.

于是我心想，等等。

So I thought, wait a minute.

政府是不是在告诉我，如果我把银行里的钱存入养老金账户，他们现在就给我22.5%的额外收益，而且三十五年后我取出来时还不用再缴税？

Is the government telling me that if I take money in my bank account and put it in my super, they will give me a 22 and a half percent boost now and they won't tax me on it when I earn out from it in thirty five years.

在我看来，就我的情况而言，这是我在理财上做出的最简单、最明智的决定。

Well, that's the dumbest easiest decision I'll make with my money was was my view for my circumstances.

关于你提到的心理影响，戴夫，我觉得这就像一个杠杆，让我意识到：哦，是的，这绝对值得锁定这笔钱。

And to your point about the psychological impact of it, Dave, for me, I think that was what I'd say was like a a lever that made me go, oh, yeah, that's definitely worth locking it in.

这绝对值得承受这种压力。

That's definitely worth the stress of it.

对吧？

Right?

我们选择投资而不是把钱存在储蓄账户里，是因为我们愿意承担一点风险，以换取一个看似经过深思熟虑的权衡。

Like, we invest instead of using savings accounts because we're happy to tolerate a little bit of risk in return for what seems like a very calculated trade off.

如果没有税收减免，如果政府不鼓励自愿缴款，我不确定。

If there wasn't the tax deduction there, if the government didn't incentivize the voluntary contributions, I don't know.

我可能就不会倾向于这样做。

I probably would not lean that way.

我可能会更接近你的想法，觉得：嗯，进账时就被征15%的税，这不太划算。

I probably would be closer to you in the sense of I'd be like, know, getting taxed 15% on the way in for this.

然后我有了三十五年，如果我想的话其实也拿不到，因为这带来的压力根本不值得，毕竟对每个人来说都很有压力。

And then I got a thirty five years, I can't get it if I want, it just would would seem like it's not a worthwhile for the stress because it is stressful for everyone.

对吧？

Right?

我想问题的关键在于，在这种压力下，你对积极结果发生的可能性有多大预期？

I guess the question's just what's your expectation of the likelihood of a a positive outcome amidst that stress?

是的。

Yeah.

这确实很难想清楚。

It's it's a difficult one to to wrap your head around.

这几乎完全取决于你的个人目标。

It depends it depends almost entirely on what your personal goal is.

所以我不知道你计划什么时候退休，海登，还有你的情况——我们之前稍微聊过一点。

So I don't know what age you're planning to retire, Hayden, and where you're I mean, we kind of talked about that a little bit before.

如果我们再深入一点分析，如果你希望尽早半退休，而你现在正处于二十多岁或三十多岁，我认为你很可能在四十岁之前就实现这个目标。

So if we unpack it a little bit more, if you're wanting to semi retire as soon as possible and you're currently in your twenties and thirties, I think you can probably achieve that before 40.

所以在40岁之前，你需要一笔远超养老金之外的不少资金才能实现这一点。

So before 40, you're going to need quite a bit of money outside super to do that.

根据这些年来我收到的反馈、邮件等等，似乎很多人都在追求这种生活方式。

And a lot of people do seem to be aiming for this kind of scenario based on feedback I've received over the years and the emails that we're getting and all the rest of it.

所以尽管这些数字看起来完全合理，但实际操作中，你很可能需要一笔可观的养老金之外的资金，而且你可能还想还清房贷——很多人正是用这笔钱来实现这个目标，而当你摆脱债务、消除一大笔开销时，这会极大提升你提前半退休的可能性。

So although the numbers make perfect sense, in practice, you're gonna end up wanting a decent amount outside super and you're probably going to want to pay off your home as well, which a lot of people are that's what they're using the money for, and that can make a huge difference to your ability to semi retire much faster is when you get that debt out of your life and you remove a big cost.

这也会带来巨大的影响。

That makes a pretty huge difference as well.

然后关于时间框架，我想你之前也提到过，很多事情都可能发生变化。

And then I suppose with the timeframe, I think you hinted at this before, there's things that can change.

你可能正在考虑买房，然后心想：哇，好吧。

You might be considering a house purchase and then you're thinking, Wow, okay.

为了这次购房，我需要更多的养老金之外的资金，或者类似的情况。

I'm going to need more money outside super for this house purchase or whatever.

你目前可能构建了一个场景，把更多资金投入养老金，而自己租房，但情况可能会改变，七年后你可能会想：天啊，我真的受够租房了。

You might currently build a scenario where you're investing more in super than you are outside super and you're renting, But then things could change and you decide in seven years' time, Man, I'm really sick of renting.

我真的很想拥有一套房子。

I really want to own a house.

然后你会想，我不得不卖掉我的投资组合，或者开始存另一笔首付款之类的东西。

And then you're thinking, I'm going to have to either sell off my portfolio or I'm going have to start saving another deposit or something like that.

只是因为你无法动用所有这些资金，缺乏一定的灵活性，我会这么说，这完全是由于资金受限造成的。

Just that lack of you have a bit of lack of flexibility, I'll say, just from sheer consequence of not having access to all of that money.

所以，我认为这样做是有代价的，把钱锁起来的代价就是失去了选择权。

So I suppose there is a cost to doing that, to locking yourself or locking that money away, and that cost is optionality.

这种选择权本身就有价值。

That has a value in itself.

除了选择权之外，你还能获得心理上的确定感，知道如果需要，随时可以动用这笔钱。

In addition to the optionality, you also have the psychological certainty that you have access to that money if you need it.

这不一定是重病之类的情况，而可能只是你想要做出的一个重要人生决定。

And it doesn't have to be terminal illness or something like that, but just an important life decision that you want to take on board.

我认为这也值得考虑。

I think that's also worth considering as well.

还有一些事情，你知道的，是非财务方面的，你也需要考虑。

There's things that are you know, relatively nonfinancial that you that you wanna consider as well.

但海登被困在电子表格里了，所以他会对我的观点持不同意见。

But Hayden's stuck in the spreadsheet, so he would he would disagree with me on that one.

不。

No.

我的意思是，我觉得你说得对。

I mean, I think you're right.

我的意思是，我觉得唯一棘手的地方在于，我们谈论它的方式听起来就像是：这适合你吗？

I mean, I I think I I think the only tricky thing is the way we talk about it can sound very like, is it for you or not?

但当人们听到‘嗯，这要看情况’这样的回答时，会非常烦。

But It's gonna be so annoying for people to hear an answer of, like, oh, well, it depends.

你知道的？

You know?

这种说法听起来像是在逃避问题，但事实确实取决于很多不同的因素。

It sounds like such a cop out discussion, but it really does depend on a lot of different things.

我是这么想的：如果你计划60岁后退休，至少我是这么考虑的。

The way I would think about it is that if you're planning to retire after 60, this is the way I think about it at least.

如果你计划60岁后退休，那么只要有可能——假设你不担心政府会改变政策，也不需要这笔钱来还房贷之类——把钱存入养老金账户在财务上是完全合理的。

If you're planning to retire after 60, then as much as humanly possible, assuming you're not scared about the government changing plans and you don't need the money for a mortgage or something, it's it's just financially makes sense to push money into super.

对吧？

Right?

这事儿真的太复杂了，很难说清楚。

That's that's so complicated to unpack.

但如果你提前退休，比如45岁或50岁，问题就变成了：你的收入中，从0%到100%之间的某个比例，有多少该存入养老金账户？

But if you're retiring before that, the question is like if you're retiring at 45 or 50, the question is how much of your income from a scale of 0% to not a 100%, but some some amount in between.

你希望把多少比例存入养老金账户？

How much do you wanna push into super?

可能是1%，也可能是2%。

Could be 1%, it could be 2%.

随着你在这个比例上逐步提高，你会发现，提前结束工作的能力会增强，但与此同时，你在退休后、还没拿到养老金的那段时期不得不重返工作岗位的风险也会增加，因为任何事都可能发生，而你并不能随时动用所有资金。

And as you slide up that scale, you will find that your capacity to finish work sooner goes up whilst at the same time, the risk that you need to go back to work in that post retirement pre super age goes up as well because anything can happen and you can't access all your money.

比如说，如果你在45岁或50岁时，整个股票投资组合缩水了一半，你会觉得这可不太妙。

Like for instance, if your entire share portfolio halves, when you're 45 or 50, you're like, well, that's not good.

这也很困难，戴夫，因为我不能说自己在任何一方面都很精通，但我也知道，我没见过任何ETF出现剧烈下跌后没能反弹的情况，这真的很难。

That it's hard too, Dave, because I I wouldn't say I'm like pro at either, but I also know that I haven't seen any ETFs take aggressive dips that they haven't it's hard.

我的意思是，这也取决于情况，因为VAS在金融危机期间表现得很差。

I mean, it depends too because VAS did pretty bad in GFC.

是吧？

Right?

VAS的跌幅，简直吓人，如果不算股息的话，VAS跌了

VAS took, like, freaking if you exclude dividends, VAS took

是的。

Yeah.

一半。

Half.

VAS花了很长时间才恢复，真的花了好几年才回到金融危机前的水平。

VAS took, like, a long, long time to come literally, like, made the GFC levels a few years ago.

你是在说价格上的恢复吗？

Are you talking about recovering, like, price wise?

是的。

Yeah.

只是价格恢复。

Just price recovery.

我知道这当然不是VAS的初衷。

I know that's not the point of VAS, of course.

但你知道，我的意思是，如果VAS下跌了一半，这通常会影响股息吗？还是根本不会影响，根据你的经验？

But but, you know, I mean, if I'm not actually, if VAS drops if VAS drops by halves, is is that that's generally is that generally gonna affect dividends or not really at all in your experience?

对。

Yeah.

导致它下跌一半的环境很可能也会导致

Well, the environment that has caused it to fall by half is probably gonna be a

环境会间接影响它，但价格变动本身并不会影响股息，对吧？

The environment will affect it indirectly, but the price change doesn't affect it, does it?