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假设你确实获得了50万美元的贷款，而你的房价上涨了5万美元。
Let's say you do have your $500,000 loan and your house price goes up by $50.
你的意思是，你可以把这大约5万美元算进去，从而在原有的50万美元基础上额外获得5万美元的贷款。
Your point is you can extend that by call it about $50 and create $50 of extra loan money on top of your $500.
然后你可以说，要把这笔额外的贷款用于购买股票。
And you could then say, going to take that extra loan and put it towards shares.
这和债务循环利用类似。
And it's similar to debt recycling.
归根结底，你是在获取某种与住房贷款相关的资本。
At the end of the day, you're accessing kind of capital that is related to the home loan in some way.
你其实并不需要现金来偿还任何债务。
You don't really need the cash to pay off anything.
你本来只需要做最低还款即可。
You could have been making minimum repayments.
恰好因为你的房产价值上涨了，而银行只要求你提供20%的首付，所以贷款总额的80%实际上变大了。
It just so happens that because your house property's gone up and the bank only needs that 20% from you, it's like 80% of loans bigger now.
所以他们只是说，是的，你可以不增加任何额外资本就扩大这笔贷款。
So they just say, yeah, you can you can make that loan bigger without any extra capital.
而且没有任何障碍阻止人们同时进行这两种操作，想象一下。
And there'd be nothing stopping people from doing both of these two, imagine.
对吧？
Right?
Aussie FIRE 播客是 Strong Money Australia 和 Pearler 的合作项目，Pearler 是澳大利亚最受欢迎的枯燥型长期投资平台。
The Aussie FIRE podcast is a collaboration between Strong Money Australia and Pearler, Australia's favorite boring long term investing platform.
欢迎收听我们的主持人——来自 Strong Money Australia 的 Dave 和来自 Pearler 的 Hayden，他们将畅谈所有关于财务自由的话题。
Join our hosts, Dave from Strong Money Australia and Hayden from Pearler as they discuss all things financial independence.
在 Aussie FIRE，我们非常推崇分享经验与讨论金钱问题。
At Aussie FIRE, we're big fans of sharing experiences and talking about money.
然而，请注意，任何建议均为一般性意见，并未考虑您的财务状况、需求或目标。
However, please note that any advice is general and does not consider your financial situation, needs or objectives.
请自行判断是否适合您，如有疑问，请咨询持牌财务顾问。
Consider whether it's appropriate for you and if in doubt, speak to a licensed financial adviser.
嘿，大家好。
Hey, guys.
欢迎回到Aussie FIRE播客。
Welcome back to the Aussie FIRE podcast.
在今天的节目中，我们将讨论如何在股票市场中使用杠杆。
So in today's episode, we're gonna be chatting about using leverage in the share market.
我们会涵盖其中的风险、回报，以及借贷投资的一些实际和心理层面。
So we'll cover the risks, the rewards, and some of the practical and psychological sides of borrowing to invest.
由于这是一个比较大的话题，我们会分成两部分来讨论。
And because this is kind of a big topic, we'll actually cover it in two parts.
在第一部分，我们将重点讨论整体策略，以及在使用房产净值作为投资股票市场的杠杆时需要考虑的问题。
In part one, we're going to focus on the overall strategy and what you need to consider when it comes to using your home equity in this discussion as your type of leverage to invest in the share market.
在第二部分，我们会讨论另一种相当流行的方式，即非房产所有者如何在股票市场中使用杠杆。
And then in part two, we're gonna discuss something else that's quite popular, and that is other options for non homeowners to use leverage in the share market.
这包括像杠杆ETF或倍数ETF这样的产品，或者NAV Equity Builder，甚至是保证金贷款。
So that is things like geared ETFs or leveraged ETFs or products like NAV Equity Builder or even margin loans.
所以这些内容我们会在第二部分讨论，不是在今天的节目中。
So we'll we'll cover those in part two, not in today's episode.
我们还要
We're also gonna
探讨债务如何改变财务自由的方程式，它究竟是帮助还是延迟了财务自由，因为你知道，杠杆并不总是像你想象的那么简单或容易。
explore how debt changes the financial independence equation, whether it helps or actually delays financial freedom because, you know, leverage isn't always as simple or as easy as you think.
当然，和所有节目一样，今天的内容绝不是任何个人财务建议，不应孤立地采纳。
And, of course, like all episodes, today is not any financial advice you should take personally in a vacuum.
我们只是泛泛地讨论这些话题，进行开放式的交流，你绝对应该考虑这些内容是否适合你自己和个人情况。
We're just speaking generally about a range of these topics in an open discussion, and you should definitely consider whether any of this is right for you and your personal circumstances.
那么我们开始吧，戴夫，先谈谈人们是否根本会考虑使用杠杆。
So let's kick things off, Dave, by talking about whether people even consider using leverage in the first place.
比如，什么是杠杆？
Like, what what is leverage?
我为什么要考虑它？
Why would I even consider it?
是的
Yeah.
这绝对不适合每个人。
It's definitely not for everyone.
在我们听播客的过程中，有些人会想，这不适合我。
And as we go through the podcast, some people will be like, that's not for me.
而其他人会想，好吧。
And other people will like, okay.
这听起来还挺有意思的。
That actually sounds pretty interesting.
我可能会去了解一下。
I might look into that.
所以，从使用杠杆投资股市的角度来看，主要的一些好处，以及你为什么可能会考虑它，我认为本质上是你能够更快地构建你的投资组合。
So essentially, some of the main benefits when it comes to using leverage in the share market and why you might consider it, I think, essentially you're able to build your portfolio at a faster rate.
最常见的方式，我们稍后会举一些例子，就是利用你房屋的大量净值，基本上将未来几年的大部分投资提前到今天来实现。
The most common way you might do it, which we'll get into some examples later, but is using a big chunk of say equity in your home and then more or less bringing forward a huge chunk of your investing from the next few years into the future to today's the present moment.
所以，假设你家里现在有10万澳元的净资产。
So let let's say there's a 100 k right now sitting in your home in terms of equity.
你可能可以带着不错的借贷能力和房产净值去银行，立即把这笔钱全部投资出去。
You might be able to go to the bank providing your you have decent borrowing power equity and invest all of that money more or less straight away.
这样你的股票投资组合增长速度会比你靠每月攒钱慢慢积累快得多。
So that it's gonna rapidly grow your share portfolio much faster than you otherwise could just waiting for your regular savings month to month.
在这种情况下，你可能能把原本要几年后才进行的投资提前好几年完成。
So you might be able to bring forward your purchases by several years in that case.
而由于你使用了杠杆，目标是让投资组合的总回报超过你支付的利息。
And then obviously because you're using leverage, the goal is to have your total return from your portfolio exceed whatever you're paying in interest.
如果你能做到这一点，用个不太精确的说法，你简直就像在印钱。
And so if you do that, you're for lack of a better phrase, you're almost like printing money.
对吧？
Right?
你以6%的利率借款，而希望获得9%的回报，甚至更高一些。
You're borrowing at 6%, whatever it might be, and you're hopefully getting, you know, 9%, maybe a bit more than that.
因此，你正在创造额外的回报，而这些回报如果你只是等待每月的常规储蓄投入市场，是根本得不到的。
So you're you're creating extra returns that you wouldn't have otherwise got if you're just waiting for your your regular savings to put into the market.
此外，还有像负扣税这样的税务优惠。
And then also there's things like tax benefits with negative gearing.
如果你的投资收入，比如说，低于你支付的利息，就会产生可抵扣的税务亏损，在报税时可以申报。
If your if your investment income, say, is is lower than the interest that you're paying, there's a a taxable loss there that you can claim when it comes to tax time.
人们在投资房产时更熟悉这种现金流亏损的抵扣方式。
And people will be more familiar with that when it comes to investment properties, being able to claim those cash flow losses.
但你也可以在股票投资组合中使用同样的方法。
But you can also do it with the share portfolio as well.
在这方面，这一规则同样适用。
That applies equally on that side of things too.
另一个人们往往没有意识到或很少提及的好处，是关于调整或优化你的投资组合时。
One other benefit actually that people don't really recognise or don't really speak about very often is when it comes to altering or tweaking your portfolio.
因为如果你现在已经拥有一个成熟的股票投资组合，而你既希望扩大这个组合，又希望在未来对其进行调整或优化。
Because if you've already got an established share portfolio, say today, and you're interested in two things, you're interested in growing that share portfolio but you're also interested in changing that share portfolio or tweaking it going forward.
你可能会因为某种原因将你的投资策略调整到另一个方向。
You might be rebalancing your strategy to a different direction for some reason.
但你可以通过杠杆或借款来建立投资组合中的特定头寸，从而实现这一点。
But you can actually do that by using leverage or by borrowing some money to then build up a certain position in your portfolio.
而不是不得不卖出投资组合的一部分再投资其他地方，你可以用借来的资金完成这一操作，从而避免实现或确认投资组合中的资本利得税。
Rather than having to sell down part of your portfolio invest elsewhere, you could actually do that with borrowed money and so that will avoid having to realise or crystallise capital gains tax in your portfolio.
因此，这不仅能帮你节省税务，还能让你更早地实现投资组合的多元化。
So it can actually save tax in that regard as well while also helping you maybe diversify your portfolio more than you otherwise could and doing it sooner.
我觉得这很有道理，戴夫。
I think that makes a lot of sense, Dave.
我是说，作为一个最近才成为房主的人，我觉得这个想法……我不知道怎么说。
I mean, as someone who's only kind of recently a homeowner, I I do think it the idea of I don't know.
像杠杆这种说法挺奇怪的。
Like, leverage is a funny term.
我记得三四年前刚听到这个词时，觉得这词听起来很吓人，直到有个人只是单独跟我解释了一下。
I remember hearing it like three or four years ago, which is pretty recent and just going like, oh, that sounds like a scary word until someone was like, was just alone.
我当时就想，哦，我大概明白贷款的意思了，我知道有些人买投资房产时会想，我要贷款，借别人的钱是要付成本的，但我认为这套房子的租金收入会超过借款成本，不过现在大多数澳大利亚的投资房产其实并不是这样。
And I was like, oh, okay, I kind of get the idea of a loan, I get the idea that, you know, I've seen people buy investment properties where they think, I'm gonna get a loan and taking someone's money costs me money, but I think this particular home is going to pay me more in rent than the cost of borrowing someone's money, which isn't really, you know, the case these days, most Australian investment properties.
但我觉得这个想法确实很能引起我的共鸣，因为你借别人的钱，是为了更快地做某件事。
But, you know, I think that idea really strikes true to me just in terms of you are taking someone else's money because you wanna do something sooner.
别人会向你收费，而你必须相信这会带来持续的收益或长期的回报，因为这本质上就是两种情况，对吧？
They charge you for it, and you either have to have a belief that there'll be an ongoing benefit or a long term benefit because that's kind of the two things, right?
比如那些能带来现金流的资产，或者像我们今天谈的股票，我稍后会讲到，我持有的股票每个月都在让我花钱，因为我用了别人的钱，我想是这么说吧，但它们现在还没给我任何回报。
Like either the ones that give you cash flow or when we're talking about shares today, which I'll chat about later is like, I own shares that cost me money every month, you know, to have because I kind of use someone else's money, I guess you'd say, and they're not paying me any money yet.
我只是觉得总有一天我会以高价卖掉它们。
Just think I'll sell them one day for a lot.
所以你知道，无论你现在就能获得这种收益，还是将来才能获得，这其实也引出了负面的部分，对吧？
So you know, whether whether you're getting that kind of benefit now or in the future, which I guess also leads us on to the the downside part, right?
说到使用杠杆的最大风险之一，对我来说最常想到的是，如今大多数澳大利亚人使用杠杆，无论是买房还是炒股，因为你可以做的选择其实很多。
Like in terms of like one of the biggest things about using leverage is if there's some potential downsides, but one of the ones that's always prevalent to me is like most cases, Australians using leverage these days, whether it is for property or shares, because there's lots of different things you can do.
尤其是在当前高利率环境下，他们为维持杠杆、支付贷款利息所花的钱，很可能超过了他们短期内从投资中获得的收益，这确实非常令人压力山大。
They are probably, particularly in this high interest rate environment, paying more to keep the leverage to have the loan than they are probably getting from the thing they are in the short term, at least, which which is a very stressful thing, honestly.
就像我本人现在在美国用杠杆投资ETF，看到它们暴跌的时候。
Like, even even as someone who's leveraged with, you know, ETFs right now in The US, it's like seeing those come crashing down.
我从它们那里几乎没赚到什么钱。
I haven't really made barely any money off them anyway.
我一直在为杠杆贷款支付大量费用。
I've been paying tons of money for the leverage for the loan.
这感觉有点让人压力山大。
It's like, oh, it's kind of stressful.
它偶尔会让我睡不着觉。
It keeps me up at night occasionally.
你知道，这挺有意思的。
You know, it's interesting.
风险就在这里，因为你本质上是在打赌，尤其是当你投资的资产或用借来的钱所持有的组合，在收入方面支出超过收益，也就是所谓的负杠杆时。
That is where the risk kinda comes in because you're essentially making a bet, especially if your portfolio or the money that you've invested with, the borrowed money, is, I suppose, negatively geared in the sense that it's costing you a bit more than than you're earning from it in terms of the income side of things.
所以这最终就变成了一种对长期资本增值的押注。
So then it just becomes a bet on growth, a bet on capital growth over the long term.
所以这可能成功，也可能不成功。
And so that may or may not pay off.
因此，当你进入没有资本增值或市场下跌的时期，无论是房地产还是股票，都会像你说的那样，变成一种压力重重的情况，让你在那段时间里的投资变得远不如以前愉快。
So that's when if you enter periods where there isn't any capital growth or the market is falling, whether it's property or shares, then it can become, like you said, a stressful situation and it makes your investing far less enjoyable over that period of time.
所以我认为这是人们需要考虑的事情，因为在理论上说起来很容易，好吧。
So I think that's something that people need to consider because it's easy to say in theory, okay.
我会支付百分之x的利息，然后轻松获得比这更高的长期回报。
I'm gonna pay x percent in interest and I'm gonna easily achieve long term returns that are better than that.
所以让我加杠杆，让我们在未来五到十五年内赚一大笔钱。
So then let me leverage up and let's just make a whole bunch of money over the next five, ten, fifteen years.
这在理论上听起来很棒，大多数情况下数学上也站得住脚，但在实践中，感觉却大不相同，因为你正在应对当下的不确定性。
That sounds great in theory and it's mathematically sound in most cases, but then in practice, that feels a lot different because you're dealing with the uncertainty at the time.
你实际上并不知道在未来五年、十年内是否能获得那样的回报，因为我们确实会经历市场长期下跌的时期，你可能连续几年都没有资本增值，或者连续几年都处于亏损状态。
You don't actually know whether you're going to be getting that return over a period of five years, ten years because we do enter periods of time where markets fall for extended timeframes, you might have no capital growth for several years or you might be sitting on a loss for several years.
因此，当涉及债务时，这种情况往往会更加放大，尤其是当你用债务进行了大额一次性购买时——这在使用债务时非常常见，就像我之前提到的100美元的例子。
And so this tends to happen it's more amplified when there's debt involved, especially when you've used debt and you've used it in such a way where you've made a big lump sum purchase, which is typically quite common when there is debt involved, like the $100 example I mentioned earlier.
所以你可以拿出100美元进行投资，一切看起来都很美好。
So you could pull out a $100, invest it, and then that's all great.
也许这100美元在接下来的六到九个月内涨到120美元，但之后的六到九个月或十二个月内又跌到80美元。
Maybe that $100 goes to a 120 over the next six or nine months, but then it falls to $80 over the six or nine months after that or twelve months after that.
到了那时，你就已经处于亏损状态了。
And then essentially, you're underwater at that point.
因此，当你投资初期一切顺利时，你对投资的感受会与现在截然不同。
So you're going to feel completely different about your investing than you did at the start when everything was going great.
这确实会极大地改变你的投资体验。
So it can really change the investing experience.
你还得记住，即使长期来看投资最终能盈利，你也必须拥有相当稳健的现金流，因为无论市场涨跌，你每个月都得按时还款。
And then you've also got to remember that even if it does pay off in the long term, you need to be in a pretty strong cash flow situation because you've got those repayments that are coming out every single month, regardless of whether the market's up, regardless of whether the market's down.
如果市场在上涨，这些还款看起来就没那么难受。
And so those repayments won't feel so bad if the market's going up.
但当市场下跌时，你会感觉像是双倍亏损——不仅投资组合在亏钱，你还得不断掏钱，陷入现金流亏损的境地。
But then when the market's going down, you feel like you're almost losing twice over or it feels twice as bad because not only is the portfolio in the red or going down, but then you're forking out potentially, like, you're you're in a cash flow loss situation as well.
所以这绝对不适合心理承受能力弱的人，我这么说吧。
So it's definitely not for not for those with a weak stomach, I'll say.
是的，确实如此。
Yeah, definitely.
我的意思是，根据我自己的经验，我认为杠杆在大多数形式下，只要你对所投资标的的中长期前景有真正的信心，就几乎不可能拥有太多。
I mean, I think what it all comes down to, at least from what I've learned from my experience is that leverage in most forms is, you know, you nearly kind of can't have too much of it as long as you have genuine belief in the medium or long term prospects of what you're buying with the leverage.
只要在最坏的情况下，你还能负担得起，即使通往那个目标的过程非常坎坷。
And as long as you can just afford it in the worst case, if the path to that point is very, very bumpy.
当我说到‘负担得起’时，指的是心理上和经济上两个方面，对吧？
And when I say afforded, mean, psychologically and economically too, right?
再说一次，值得注意的是，今天我们讨论的是用杠杆购买股票。
And again, think what's useful is, know, we're talking today about, you know, using leverage to buy shares.
对于任何听众来说，你其实可以将同样的思路应用到许多澳大利亚人买房的情况上，因为他们觉得总有一天能以高价卖出。
And for anyone listening, like you really can just apply the same thought to lots of people in Australia buy houses because they think they can sell it for a lot one day.
但他们要很久之后才能看到那一天。
They're not gonna see that for a long time.
如今的租金回报率其实并不高。
Rents these days don't really return that much.
而且除此之外，你还得知道你可能赶上了泡沫期，买了房子之后，价格可能多年持续下跌。
And then on top of it, you also know that you could have bought in a bubble and that, you know, you might buy a home and it actually goes down for years and years and years.
而这两点恰恰是你真正需要挺过去的全部内容。
And they're the only two things you really need to survive.
但如果你能熬过这段时期，那么大多数情况下，这其实是一件好事。
But if you can get through that, then then the majority of the time it's it's kind of a good thing.
我觉得这也是我很在意的一件事，戴夫，因为我想在二十多岁的大部分时间里，我都非常害怕它，毕竟我成长的家庭经济状况一直很紧张。
And I think it's something I care about a lot too, Dave, because I guess you'd say for most of my twenties, was really scared of it because, you know, it was kind of a financially strained household growing up.
我当时就想，我真不想负债，我不希望自己陷入债务之中。
And I was like, I don't really want to take I want I don't want to be in debt.
我不希望拥有那些一旦价值归零，我就变成负资产的东西。
I don't want to own stuff where if the value of it goes to zero, I'm actually somehow negative wealth.
但我确实认为，有时候需要一些时间才能获得这种成熟和成长。
But I do think it's just like, it takes some time sometimes to have that maturity and growth.
你知道吗，我直到快29岁才真正明白这一点。
Like, you know, it took me till I was probably 29.
按澳大利亚的普遍标准来说，这已经算比较晚了，尤其是对于那些靠工作攒下一些钱的人来说。
That's pretty old by the typical Australian standards, I'd say, of people who have some money from, you know, work.
我认为，关键是要克服这样一个观念：如果你还没准备好，就别去承担那种可能把你拖垮的杠杆。
And I think there is just that kind of getting over the fact that if you're not done with it, you're just not gonna take on some kind of leverage that'll send you into the bin.
是的。
Yeah.
你这么说其实挺有意思，因为我的成长环境其实挺简单的，跟你有点像。
It's it's interesting you say that actually because, you know, I had a pretty, I suppose, simple upbringing, a little bit like yourself.
但我最终形成了完全相反的观念，这让我更渴望去追求，比如说，是的。
And I but I ended up having the the opposite philosophy, I guess, that that made me more, like, hungry to be like, yeah.
明白了。
Okay.
我要去承担这种风险，因为我就是想多冒点险，比如说，好吧。
I'm gonna take on that region because I I wanted to take more risk and be like, okay.
我赌这件事会成功，我不在乎债务。
I'm betting it's going to work out and I don't care about the debt.
如果我能用债务赚到比其他方式更多的钱，那就把债务给我吧。
If I can use debt to make more money than I could otherwise, then just give me the debt.
我能拿多少就拿多少。
I'll take as much as I can get.
所以那时我就这样做了。
And so that was
我觉得这特别有意思，因为当你还很年轻的时候搬出家，虽然不是通过股票，但就杠杆而言，你很早就开始使用了。
I think that's so interesting because, like like, when you moved out of home, when you were quite young, you started taking on obviously, not with shares, but just speaking about leverage generally, you took on leverage pretty soon after.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
只是几年后而已。
Only only a few years later.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我觉得这真的很有趣，虽然这是个无关的插曲，但我自己读完了五年的大学。
So like, I think that's really interest interesting because this is a random side note, but you know, like, put myself through five years of uni.
对吧？
Right?
当你在上大学的时候，很少能积累多少资本。
And when you're at uni, you're rarely building up a lot of capital.
所以挺有意思的，我觉得你直接进入职场，可能反而有一种扭曲的好处。
So like, it's funny, you know, I feel like there might be this kind of sick and twisted benefit really, that you just went straight into the workforce.
你当时觉得，反正我一无所有。
And you were like, I got nothing to lose.
你知道，我一无所有，我花了这么多年才建立起的生活，可能随时都会失去，因为我还年轻，又穷。
You know, I've got no, I've got no, life, I've spent years establishing that I might lose, I'm just young and poor.
我需要用钱做什么呢？而我可能直到25岁左右才真正有了超过一万美元的积蓄。
And what do I need to do with my money whereas I probably started to only seriously have some like more than $10,000 when I was probably like 25.
那可是花了好多年才慢慢安定下来，心里想着：‘我不知道啊。’
And that's like a lot of years of getting comfortable and being like, oh, I don't know.
杠杆听起来像是可能会把我过去六七年辛苦建立起来的安稳生活彻底推翻。
Leverage sounds like I might pull all the walls down of this nice little life I've spent the last six or so years of, you know, building up.
不过，这只是个顺便提一下的观点，我觉得你谈到自己如何充满渴望，从一个简单的童年成长起来，以及你对杠杆的看法与其他人的不同，这真的很有趣。
Anyway, that's just a side note, I think that's that's really interesting how you talk about being so hungry, kind of just coming out of a pretty simple childhood and your relationship with leverage and how it's different.
是的。
Yeah.
不同的人面对类似的情境时，处理方式真是截然不同，这很有趣。
It's interesting how different people approach, you know, similar sort of scenarios if if that's what happens.
听到这样的故事，总是让人觉得特别有意思。
It's very it's always fascinating to to hear stuff like that.
但为了更具体一些，我们来量化一下，因为人们可能会有点好奇，比如。
But in terms of, I suppose, to put some numbers to it because people might be wondering a little bit like, okay.
那么，通过在股市中使用杠杆，你能多赚多少呢？
Well, how much extra can you make from using leverage in the share market?
让我们回到我之前举的例子：假设你能从自己的房产中提取出10万美元的 equity，然后用这笔钱借贷投资于股市。
So let's just go back to that example I had before of assuming you're able to you're able to somehow pull $100,000 of equity out of your home and you borrow against it and invest that money in the share market.
为了突出这个例子，我这里说得稍微乐观一点。
What I'll say is a little bit generous here to highlight the example here.
假设你能获得每年10%的投资回报率。
But let's assume that you're able to earn investment returns of say 10% per annum.
这可能比保守的长期预期还要高一些。
That's probably a little bit longer than a conservative long term estimate.
我们假设你支付的平均利率是5%。
And we'll say that the average interest rate you'll pay is 5%.
所以，扣除债务成本后，大约有5%的回报会成为你的利润。
So more or less, 5% of the return is gonna be profit after you've paid for your debt.
顺便说一下，我们稍后会讨论税收问题。
And we'll talk about taxes later, by the way.
但我们先假设这10万美元的利润空间为5%。
But we'll just assume that there's a a profit margin here of 5% on that $100,000.
这意味着你每年将额外赚取5000美元，并且这笔钱会随着时间复利增长。
That So essentially means you're going be able to make an extra $5,000 per year, which will compound over time.
在最初这笔一次性投入后的十年里，你最终将额外获得大约65000美元。
After ten years of that lump sum in the beginning, you'll end up with an extra $65,000 ish.
而二十年后，这笔钱将复利增长到约165000美元，我认为这相当不错。
And then after twenty years, that will compound to about $165,000 So that is quite good, I would say.
也许不算巨额，但确实相当不错。
It's maybe not massive, but it is quite good.
你是否认为这值得，这大概会是个人的选择。
Whether you think that that's worth it, that's probably going to be a personal choice.
正如我们之前提到的，这取决于你的估算、你对所支付平均利率的预期，以及你期望获得的投资回报。
As we mentioned before, it's going to depend on what your estimates are, what your expectations are on the average interest rate that you'll pay, and then also what investment returns you expect to receive.
但我想说，如果你在使用杠杆，尽量不要对回报期望过高，以为能拿到每年15%之类的收益。
But I would say that if you are using leverage, try not to be too aggressive with your return expectations and thinking that you're going to get 15% per annum or something like that.
这种事很可能不会发生，更稳妥的做法是假设你能获得长期平均回报。
Probably not going to happen or probably safer to assume that you'll get more like the long term average.
如果非要说的话，我认为这才是更明智的策略。
If anything, I think that's the the better way to play it.
我不确定你怎么看，伙计，但我肯定不会去赌高额回报。
I'm not sure how you see it, mate, but I certainly wouldn't be wanting to bet on massive returns.
是的。
No.
我觉得你说得完全对。
I think I think you're you're exactly right.
而且，为了让大家更清楚，我其实已经多次对我的房贷进行债务重组了，这在某种程度上是类似的——我是把银行的钱，作为现有贷款的一部分拿了出来，对吧？
And I mean, just to kind of paint a picture for people, you know, like I've I've debt recycled a lot of my home loan, which isn't it's kind of similar in the sense that, know, I'm kind of taking money that, you know, kind of taking the bank's money as part of an existing loan, right?
我把其中很大一部分钱投到了IVV和VGS这类以美国资产为主的组合里，大概一年前就这么做了。
And I put a lot of that money into like IVV and VGS, very US heavy portfolios, and, you know, probably did that about a year ago now.
去年十二月时，它上涨了17%。
And it was up 17% back in December.
而现在经过美国股市的调整后，它回落到了10.18%，这在我看来正是给人们的另一个提醒。
And now after the kind of US stock market correction, it's down to 10.18%, which is I think just another reminder to people.
因为人们很容易觉得，哦，它涨了15%。
Because it can be easy to kind of be like, oh, it's up 15%.
这种事情确实会发生，但关键在于你所采用的时间尺度。
Those things happen, but it's all about the time time scale that you you apply to it.
但确实很有趣，你知道吗，光是靠一些短期数字就能赚到这么多钱。
But, yeah, that's really interesting about the, you know, how much money you can make just for some quick numbers.
戴夫，我能问你一个突然的问题吗？
Can I ask you a quick curveball question, Dave?
我们没为这个做准备。
We didn't prepare for this.
如果杠杆是通过银行借钱给你、你支付利息来赚钱的这么好的方式，那为什么银行不直接拿自己的钱去投资呢？
If leverage is such a good way to make money by basically the bank giving you money and you paying them a fee, why doesn't the bank just spend their money on investments?
他们为什么把钱给你？
Why do they give it to you?
这难道不是表明这样做可能不太好？
Isn't that a sign that it's maybe a bad thing to do?
因为银行是做银行业务的，而不是投资业务。
Because the bank is a banking business, not an investment business.
他们相信，通过贷款业务赚的钱比自己用现金投资更多。
And they believe they could make more money from their lending business than from investing it separately with cash.
公平地说，银行本身其实是一个高杠杆的业务。
To be fair, the bank itself is actually a very leveraged business.
银行的资本金相对于其放贷规模来说非常少。
The bank has little amounts of capital for the amount of lending that they're doing.
所以他们自己就是一个杠杆业务。
So they themselves are a leveraged business.
所以你可能会说他们也应该把杠杆用在投资上，但他们自己已经在从杠杆中获益了。
So you could say they should leverage into investments, but they themselves are benefiting from leverage.
我不认为这就是我会如何回答这个问题的方式。
I don't think it's I'd say that's how I'd answer that question.
我觉得这是一个很好的观点。
I think that's a good point.
对吧？
Right?
比如，银行家们就坐在那里，手握一万亿美元，却决定把它贷给你，而不是自己去投资。
Like, the bankers are just sitting there with a trillion dollars and they just decide to lend it out to you instead of investing it.
然后把剩下的现金就那么搁在那里。
And then keep the rest of that cash just sitting there.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
他们基本上是从政府那里借钱。
Like, they borrow money off the government, basically.
我们能以更低的利率获得资金。
Just at cheaper rates we get.
所以，你知道，他们显然喜欢杠杆，因为这正是他们商业模式的结构，正如你所说。
So, you know, they clearly like leverage because it's how their business is structured, as you said.
我的突然提问就到这里了，戴夫。
That's the end of my curveball, Dave.
是的。
Yeah.
但显然，这个例子是一个相当简单的例子。
But, obviously, the with that example, there's, you know, it's a fairly simple example.
但你借得越多，潜在收益就越大，但风险也越高。
But the more you borrow, the more upside there is, but then the more risk there is.
所以，如果你觉得那点超额回报并不算多，比如说，显然当你规模扩大，可能你借了200或300美元，这些数字就会随着你使用的金额成倍增长。
So if if you think, well, that wasn't very much of an excess return, let's say, obviously, as you scale up and maybe it was you borrowed $200 or $300, obviously, those numbers would multiply by the amount that you've used.
所以你能理解为什么人们喜欢借入大量资金，试图获得原本无法实现的超额回报。
So you can see why people like to or like the idea of borrowing large amounts of money to try and create excess returns that they wouldn't have otherwise gotten.
所以，戴夫，我有个问题，我们现在讨论的并不是用杠杆买房。
So a question I have for you, Dave, is like, you know, today we're not talking about, you know, leverage to buy a home.
我们现在主要讨论的是利用你现有的房屋净值来购买股票。
We're talking predominantly about using home equity that you have to buy shares right now.
从我从property.com.au网站上看到的情况来看，我是个刚买房不久的业主，我的房贷还剩很多没还，除了买房时已经支付的20%首付外，我的房屋净值其实并不多。
I'm I'm a pretty recent homeowner from what I can tell from the property.com.au websites and how little of my, know, mortgage I paid off, I don't have a great deal of equity in my own beyond the 20% that I already put in when I bought the home.
所以我想请你解释一下，一个人如果积累了一些房屋净值，想用它来贷款买股票，这背后的逻辑是怎样的。
So I guess just set me through this idea of like, someone who has built up some home equity and they want to use that to take out a loan to buy shares.
因为从表面上看，这听起来确实有点令人困惑。
Because obviously at face value, it can sound a little confusing.
是的。
Yeah.
其实这并不复杂，就像你可以用房屋作为抵押贷款，用这笔钱作为投资房产的首付款一样，你同样可以用这笔钱来投资股票组合。
So it's not all that complicated to be fair because just like you can borrow against your home to use that money as a deposit for an investment property, you could equally use that money to invest in a share portfolio as well.
有些人可能会好奇，既然你还可以通过其他方式借钱买股票，比如我们将在本系列第二部分讨论的保证金贷款，那为什么还要用房产净值来投资呢？
Some people might wonder, Well, why would you invest using home equity if you can get other loans for shares anyway, like margin loans, which we'll talk about in part two of this little mini series.
但原因在于，用房产作抵押借款的利率，远低于用股票组合作抵押借款的利率。
But the reason for that is that the interest rates are much cheaper if you borrow against your home than if you're borrowing against a share portfolio.
银行基本上认为，由于股票市场的波动性，以及人们可能因波动性而做出的错误决策，用股票组合作抵押贷款的风险更高。
The bank essentially assesses that the risk of you blowing up your share portfolio because of the volatility and maybe the decisions people make around that because of the volatility and having loans against a share portfolio is more risky.
因此，银行会因此收取更高的利率。
They will charge a high interest rate because of that reason.
但他们认为你的房产风险极低，因为你几乎肯定会每月按时还贷，而房产价值下跌30%或类似情况，并导致你无法偿还贷款、银行不得不通过出售你的房产来实现亏损的可能性微乎其微。
But they essentially perceive your home as very low risk because the chances that you just simply keep paying your mortgage month after month and the idea that the property is going to decline by 30% or something like that, and you're also not going to be able to pay that mortgage and they'll have to crystallise a loss by selling your home is very, very, very unlikely.
因此，银行愿意为你提供更低的房产抵押贷款利率，这就是人们选择这种方式借款的原因。
They're able to offer cheaper interest rates against your home, so that's the reason why people would choose to borrow that way.
这其实并不复杂。
It's not all that complicated.
如果你能去银行申请，比如你几年前买了房，一直按时还款，而房价又大幅上涨了。
If you can just go to the bank and you're wanting to do this, and let's say you bought a home a while ago and maybe you've just made your normal repayments and the home's gone up in value quite a bit.
假设这套房子价值70万美元，但你当初买房时办理的抵押贷款余额大约为50万美元。实际上，大多数银行都乐意提供高达80%的贷款，这被认为是一个比较稳妥的贷款与价值比率。
Let's say the home is worth $700,000 but when you bought the home and you established your mortgage and the loan is sitting at around about $500,000 Essentially, most banks are pretty happy to lend up to say 80%, which is considered a comfortable loan to value ratio.
这样你就能获得56万美元的贷款，轻松提取出6万美元的差额，这个简单的例子就是这样。
That would give you a loan of $560,000 You'd be able to easily access $60,000 that simple example.
为了保持操作简单明了，这与我们之前关于债务循环的那期内容也有点关联——因为你打算用这部分额外的房产净值进行投资，所以你希望把它和你的主房贷分开处理。
The way you would do it to keep things nice and simple, and this relates a little bit back into our debt recycling episode, is because you're going to use this extra equity for investing, you want to keep it separate from your main home loan.
你希望银行为你单独设立一笔针对这6万美元、或10万美元，或其他任何金额的贷款。
You wanna get the bank to create a loan for that $60,000 or a $100,000 or whatever it might be.
这样做能让你在报税时非常方便，也能为税务局提供清晰的资金流向记录，万一他们问起你的利息抵扣或其他相关事项，你都能有据可查。
And this will make it nice and easy for tax time and give you a nice clear history of where the money has gone for the ATO if they ever come and ask you about your your interest deductions or anything like that.
希望这能解释清楚杠杆操作的基本机制。
So hopefully, that explains the basic mechanics on how the leverage side of things works.
所以，如果我问一个问题，戴夫，假设你目前有50万美元的贷款，而你的房价上涨了50万美元。
So if I could ask a question, Dave, when it comes to this, let's say you do have your $500,000 loan and your house price goes up by $50.
你的意思是，你可以再增加大约50万美元的贷款，在原有50万的基础上再额外借出50万。
Your point is you can extend that by call it about $50 and create $50 of extra loan money on top of your $500.
然后你可以这么说，我要把这笔额外的贷款用于购买股票。
And you could then say I'm going to take that extra loan and put it towards shares.
这和债务循环有点类似，实际上也类似于债务循环。
And it's similar to debt recycling, but also like it's similar debt recycling.
归根结底，你是在获取某种与房贷相关的资金。
At the end of the day, you're accessing kind of capital that is related to the home loan in some way.
而在债务循环中，你讲的是拿现金偿还部分或全部债务，然后再重新提取，使这部分变成贷款。
It's just that with debt recycling, you're talking about, say, taking cash, paying off part or hold the debt, redrawing it, so that that part is is a loan.
但在这个方法中，你其实并不需要现金来偿还任何东西。
Whereas with this one, you don't really need the cash, so to speak, to pay off anything.
你本来就可以只做最低还款。
You could have been making minimum repayments.
只是因为你的房产升值了，而银行只需要你承担20%的份额，也就是说80%的贷款比例是完全可以接受的。
It just so happens that because your house property's gone up and the bank only needs that 20% from you, 20% of, you know it's like 80% of loans big enough.
所以银行就会说，是的，你可以增加贷款额度，而无需额外投入资金。
So they just say, yeah, you can you can make that loan bigger without any extra capital.
而且，如果人们想这么做，没有任何障碍阻止他们同时采用这两种方式。
And there'd be nothing stopping people from doing both of these two, imagined, right, if they wanted to.
所以，如果你有额外的现金，而且你的房产价值上涨了，你就可以通过同时进行债务循环和扩大贷款或利用房产净值申请新贷款，来利用你的住房贷款实现这种杠杆。
So if you have extra cash, and your property has gone up, then you can access this kind of leverage through your home loan by doing both of these things, both debt recycling and just extending your loan or taking out another loan with the equity.
这样理解对吗？
Is that fair enough?
是的。
Yeah.
在债务循环中，你实际上并没有增加贷款总额。
With debt recycling, you're not actually increasing the size of your loan.
你只是试图将现有的贷款转化为可抵税的投资贷款。
You're just trying to convert your current loan to be a tax deductible investment loan.
我们之前已经详细讨论过如何操作。
And we talked at length about how to do that.
但这种杠杆策略完全不是这么做的。
But with this strategy leveraging, you're not doing that at all.
你实际上是在增加贷款。
You're actually increasing your loan.
所以你承担了更多风险，并用这笔钱进行投资。
So you're taking on more risk and you're using that money to invest with.
所以不管你是否已经还清了一部分房贷，或者一分都没还，都没关系。
So it doesn't matter if you've paid off some of your home or none of your home.
只要你的房子有净值就行。
There just has to be equity in the home.
因此，你现有的房贷保持不变。
So your current home loan will stay the same.
你只是另外创建了一个更大的新贷款，用来 elsewhere 投资。
It's just that you're then creating a new, bigger loan to then invest elsewhere with.
所以希望这能说清楚，两者之间的区别是很明确的。
So hopefully, that makes sense and there's a clear distinction there on the difference.
但如果你的房子只升值了100美元，你就只能获得大约额外100美元的资金来投资。
But if you if your home only goes up by a $100, you can only access about an extra $100 of money to invest.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
比如说80。
Say say 80.
如果银行规定，比如说，80%的贷款价值比上限，那么你的房产每升值100美元，只要你有足够的借款能力，你就能额外借到80美元。
If the bank wants to you know, if there's, a 80% LVR limit, then for every $100 your home increases by, you'll be able to essentially borrow an extra 80 provided you've got decent borrowing power.
所以，有些人更激进、更愿意承担风险，比如说。
So that kind of There's people out there who are more aggressive and more of a risk taker, let's say.
他们可能设想了一种策略，我自己也想过：随着房产价值上涨，你可以不断以房产为抵押借款，让贷款额度越来越大，然后把这笔钱投入股市或你想要的任何投资渠道。
They probably imagined a strategy, and I've imagined this myself, where as your home increases in value, you can continually borrow against the home, make the loan bigger and bigger and then throw that money into the share market or invest it wherever you want.
但同时也要把这些钱投入你的投资组合，这样即使你不断以房产为抵押借入更多资金，也能加速投资组合的增长。
But throw that money into your portfolio as well so you're able to grow your portfolio at an accelerated rate even though you're borrowing more and more amounts against your home.
所以，这是一种更激进的做法。
So that would be a more aggressive way to do it.
是的。
Yeah.
你能超过20%吗？
Could you do it beyond the 20%?
比如，我现在公寓的权益大约有21%，因为房子是最近买的，我觉得它的价值没怎么变。
Like, let's say I have about a 21% equity in my apartment right now, say, because, you know, it's bought recently and it's don't I think its value has changed much.
当然，我可以去找银行说：我能把那额外的1%拿回来吗？能给我那7000美元的贷款吗？不管具体是多少。
Obviously, yeah, I could go to the bank and be like, can I have that extra 1% back and, yeah, can I have that $7,000 loan or whatever it is?
但是，我能去银行说：你知道吗？
But, like, could could I go to the bank and say, you know what?
算了。
Screw it.
我其实并不介意支付这个贷款人保险费。
I I really don't mind paying this lender's mortgage insurance fee.
我想拿这笔钱。
I wanna take that.
我想拿走15%。
I wanna take 15%.
我想把自己降到5%。
I wanna send myself down to 5%.
显然，这样做的不利之处在于，你现在要为银行认为你的风险支付保险费，但这个想法是可行的。
Obviously, the disincentive there is that you're now paying an insurance premium for how risky the bank sees you, but that is possible as an idea.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
Definitely.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
你可以超过80%。
You can go above 80%.
这只是因为那通常是银行感到舒适的范围，而超过这个范围就不一样了。
It's just that that's like the general bank comfort zone and above that.
你知道，他们通常希望你支付某种贷款人抵押保险。
You know, they generally want you to pay some sort of lender's mortgage insurance.
如果我记得没错，可能在81%或82%时就会触发，但通常在85%或90%时就一定会触发。
If it's I think it I don't know if it'll kick in at 81 or 82, but very often, 85 or 90, it will definitely kick in.
这其中可能有一些细节问题，但一般来说，80%是他们非常乐意接受的水平，你不需要支付任何额外费用。
There might be some intricacies around that, but generally, it's like 80% is the level that they're pretty happy with without you having to pay any extra fees or anything like that.
我想，至少从我的角度来看，这听起来最有趣的地方是针对那些可能听说过债务循环利用这一概念的人，对吧？
I guess, at least from my perspective, where this sounds the most interesting to me is for people who maybe have heard about debt recycling, the idea of it, right?
我的意思是，很多人听说过债务循环，觉得这真的很有趣，但他们就是没有足够的资金，毕竟普通人收入一般，房贷也一般，根本存不下多少钱，对吧？
As in, know, lead life, lots of people who've heard about it, I mean, like, oh, that's really interesting, but they just don't have the capital for it, because they just, you know, say average income with average mortgage amount, whatever it is, and they're just not saving huge amounts, right?
但后来他们转念一想，天啊，举个家庭的例子吧，我上周认识的一个郊区男士，有家有口的。
But then they turn around, and they think, oh, damn, like maybe a family a good example is like, there's a guy I was talking to last week who's, you know, some suburban guy with a family.
他有三个孩子，类似这种情况。
He's got three children, something like that.
他说，是的，我们完全可以轻松还清房贷。
And he's like, yeah, we can pay off the mortgage fine.
你知道，我们这房子已经住了五年了。
You know, we've had the house for like five years now.
但说实话，情况有点紧张，他可能会说：我没法做债务循环，因为我账户里没有多余的资金可以用来循环贷款。
But you know, it's a little bit on the edge, but we're like, okay, is he might be like, Well, I can't debt recycle because I don't have the money sitting at offset to recycle through the loan.
但我已经拥有这套房子五年了，在悉尼，这通常意味着房价已经上涨了，如果现在评估的话。
But I've owned a home for five years, which in Sydney usually means that the price has gone up if it got valued.
所以你可能会想：我确实想建立股票投资组合，但手头的现金和抵扣账户里都没钱来实现。
So you might be like, Well, I'm interested in building out this share portfolio, I don't have the capital to do it with my cash reserves and offset.
哦，但也许我可以取出几百块钱。
Oh, but maybe I can pull out a couple $100.
如果他真的对这个感兴趣，那么他和家人主要需要考虑的是：显然，如果你把贷款额度提高，每月的还款总额会增加，对吧？
And if he is really interested in that, then the main consideration for him and his family would be, obviously, if you make the loan bigger, your monthly repayments will go up in net, right?
比如，如果有两笔贷款，你每个月就要还两次款。
Like, if it's two loans, you'll be paying two repayments every month.
但总的来说，你的还款总额会更多。
But in net, you're going be paying more.
问题是，我能否负担得起这笔额外的月供？
And it's like, can I afford that, that extra monthly repayment?
因为这不仅仅是银行给你的钱。
Because it's not just money the bank gives you.
你知道，银行会对所有贷款收取费用，作为提供服务的代价。
You know, they they will charge you, like, all loans means for the privilege.
对吧？
Right?
是的
Yeah.
百分之百
A 100%.
所以这取决于个人或每个家庭的现金流。
So it's gonna depend on that person or each household's cash flow.
他们可能觉得自己没有足够的钱来进行债务循环，但即使金额较小也可以做到。
They might not think they're able to debt recycle because they don't have much money, but you can do it with smaller amounts of money.
但即使他们拥有20万美元的房产净值，可以从中提取出来。
But just because you've got, say, maybe they've got $200,000 of equity that they could access in their in their home loan or in their home.
是的
Yeah.
比如，他们可能只有30元的抵扣余额。
Like, they might only have $30 in offset.
他们可能会觉得，这笔钱不多。
And they might be like, that's not a lot of money.
我们每周都需要这笔现金。
We need that cash week to week.
你可以用这笔钱进行债务重组。
You can debt recycle with that.
不行。
No.
当然可以。
Of course.
但假设他们就是这样想的，他们看了一下数字，觉得在这个阶段，用30块钱进行债务重组并投入股票，回报潜力太小了。
But let's say that they're like that for them, they look at the numbers, they're like, at this stage, debt recycling $30 and putting it in shares just feels like the the return potential's too small.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
就是说，你知道的，先开始。
To be like, you know, to start.
对吧？
Right?
我知道很多人就是这样，如果你跟他们说，如果你做这些复杂的事情，可能一年能多赚600美元。
Like, I know a lot of people like that where if you kind of tell them, if you do all this complicated stuff, you might end up with 600 extra dollars a year.
而他们会说，我生活已经够复杂了，带着三口之家，没必要为这600美元操心。
And they're like, my life's way too complicated to be stressing about $600 with a family of three.
对吧？
Right?
所以我想到那些房产净值远高于现金储备的人。
So I think about the people that have had significantly more in home equity buildup than they have in cash reserve buildup, basically.
对吧？
Right?
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这通常是我想的，家庭和房屋应该是首要的，这是我猜的。
Which is typically, I think, families and homes would be the number one person, would be my guess.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
你只需要有能力偿还贷款。
You just need to be able to make the repayments.
如果你能负担得起更大的房贷还款，那么在五到十年的时间框架内，很可能会有利可图。
If you can make the repayments on the bigger mortgage, then it's probably going to work out beneficially over a five, ten year time frame.
但这取决于你有多少多余现金来支付更大的房贷。
But it's going to depend how much surplus cash you have to service the bigger mortgage.
因为如果你有二十万或三十万美元可以动用，那会是多少呢？
Because if you've got 200 or 300,000 that you can access, that's going be what?
每年的还款额大概是15,000到20,000美元。
$15,000 $20,000 a year in repayments.
如果你的股票投资组合表现不错，你每年可能会获得1万美元的收入。
You might get $10,000 a year in income if you're doing okay from your share portfolio.
每个月仍然会有一些支出需要你来承担。
There's still going to be some out flows each month that you're going to have to cover.
你得自己算清楚，这取决于你打算投资什么，我们稍后可以聊聊这个。
You're going to have to do the numbers and it depends on what you're going to invest in and we can talk about that in a minute.
他们不可能免费做到这一点，让投资收入完全覆盖房贷。
They're not going to be able to do that for free essentially and have that mortgage covered by their investment income.
除非他们投资的是某些高收益的产品，但那样很可能伴随着有限的增长。
Unless they're investing in some very high yielding options, but then that's going to come with limited growth most likely.
所以在这方面也没有免费的午餐。
So there's no free lunch in that regard either.
但也许我们现在可以转话题，谈谈不同的投资选择，或者用借来的钱投资时是否应该采取不同的策略，以及不同选择的税务影响，因为我觉得在这个领域，人们经常考虑和思考这些问题。
But maybe we just pivot now and start talking about the different options of what to invest in or whether you should actually approach your investing any differently with borrowed money and then what the tax outcomes are for the different options because I think that's something that people consider and think about quite a bit as well in this area.
当然。
For sure.
除非你对这个例子还有什么其他问题。
Unless there's something else you had to ask me with that example.
没有。
No.
没有。
No.
我的意思是，我稍后有个问题想问你，但我真的很喜欢你接下来的问题，就是当你有杠杆时，投资有什么不同？
I mean, I I have a question for you later, but I actually like your next question in terms of, like, how is is investing different when you have leverage?
而且，我觉得债务循环和重新提取房屋贷款其实是两种非常不同的机制，但最终目标是一样的，那就是购买比以前更多的股票。
And, like, I do kind of think of, you know, debt recycling and redrawing on your home loan as kind of just two very different mechanisms to get to the same point, which is, you know, buy more equities than you previously would have been able to write.
在进行债务循环之前，我只是有一个杂乱的投资组合，比如你在网上看到的那些东西，一点VAS，一点VGS，或者 whatever Dave 从 Strong Money Australia 的小博客上写的那些东西。
And before I had debt recycled, I just kind of had this mishmash portfolio of, you know, those things you read online, it was like a bit of VAS, a bit of VGS or whatever it was, you know, Whatever Dave from Strong Money Australia wrote on his little blog or something like that.
别听他的。
Don't listen
别理他，伙计。
to him, mate.
我认为重点其实只是，什么是合理且常见的做法？
And I think the focus was really just like, what's what's a sensible thing to do, a normal thing to do?
如果你有更多的杠杆，这种做法你依然可以持续下去。
And that's like something you can keep doing if you had more, you know, leverage.
让我们以一个普通人为例来说明。
Like, let's let's take a typical person out there just to use the example.
比如说，有个人把1万美元投入了由VAS和VGS组成的ETF投资组合。
Let's say someone out there has got put $10,000 into an ETF portfolio of VAS and VGS.
其中一个ETF是高股息、非常符合股息税务效率的，或者也许IVV更好，因为它经常几乎不派发股息。
One of those is a high dividend, very like dividend tax efficient ETF and then or maybe IVV is a better one because it pays bugger all dividends a lot of the time.
IVV主要投资于美国股市。
It's like IVV is like heavy US stock market.
但它在历史上通常增长得更快。
The but it grows generally historically much quicker.
如果他们只投入了1万美元，那可能只是刚入门投资，正在慢慢适应。
Now if they've only got $10 in there, it might just kind of be like, I'm getting settled into investing.
然后，如果突然出现一个机会，让他们可以利用房屋的杠杆，提取100美元的房屋净值。
And then if suddenly this opportunity comes along where they can make use of their leverage in their home, draw out $100 of home equity.
现在，这笔钱的数额看起来大得多，至少这是我之前的经历——在我开始投资之前，我从未在股市中投入过这么多钱。
Now suddenly the numbers feel a lot bigger, at least that was the experience I had to write like before I get recycled, had not invested anywhere near that much money in the stock market.
我只是把钱放在现金和抵消账户里，类似这样的地方。
I just kind of had it in cash and offset and things like that.
在这种情况下，我觉得你会面临一个问题：我是否应该继续做我正在做的事？
And in that case, I feel like you've got that question, which is do I just keep doing what I'm doing?
或者至少我和戴夫讨论时考虑的两个角度是：我是否应该全力转向股息策略，比如选VAS这类股票，以减轻房贷压力？
Or the two angles at least I got to approach it with Dave were, do I go really hard down the dividend approach, like the VAS and similar, just to de stress me from the mortgage repayments?
因为我知道每个季度都能收到相当可观的股息，这让我觉得安心。
Like, me knowing I'm gonna get fairly significant dividends every quarter, helps me be like, okay.
这样就挺好。
Well, that's okay.
即使股市崩盘，银行依然会把股息支付给我，我们会玩一个奇怪的游戏：我付钱给银行，银行又把钱付还给我，最坏的情况下，这些钱大概能互相抵消。
Like, if the stock market goes to hell, banks are still gonna pay the dividends back to me, and we're gonna play some weird game where I'm paying the bank, the bank's paying me, and it all kinda, you know, average out in the worst case.
或者你选择追求资本增值。
Or do you go down the, like, you know, I just want to chase capital growth.
而且，我想我们之前已经讨论过这个了。
And, know, I think we've talked about this previously.
但我最终选择了资本增值这条路。
But for me that I ended up going down the capital growth area.
这仅仅是因为我现在从事的是科技行业服务类的工作。
And that's just because I'm, I'm like in this tech industry service worker job right now.
而且我每赚一美元都要交很多税。
And I pay a lot of tax per dollar.
对我个人而言，获得税务优惠是有利的，我就不在这里详细展开了，因为我们已经谈过了。
And for me personally, it was it was beneficial to get the tax benefit, which I won't unpack here, because we've talked about it.
但为了获得税务优惠，比如，像我这样高收入的人，说这话有点奇怪。
But to get the tax benefit of like, basically, I, if you have a high income, like me, which is a strange thing to say.
我的收入其实不算特别高，但至少不在30%的税率区间。
I mean, my income is not super high, but, you know, it's it's not in the 30% tax bracket.
一般来说，如果你觉得这些扣除项有价值，你就应该利用它们。
Then generally, it's like you want to you wanna have deductions if you see them as worthwhile.
对吧？
Right?
我不希望误导任何人，让他们以为买一台5000美元的笔记本电脑是个好主意，仅仅因为你能获得一个你根本不需要的扣除额。
I don't wanna trick anyone into thinking it's a good idea to go buy a $5,000 laptop because you get a deduction that you don't need.
但比如说，我非常坚信自己真的需要那些ETF，比如IVV。
But, you know, like, let's say I have a strong conviction that I, like, really need those ETFs, like, say, IVV.
我真的很需要它们，因为我对它们深信不疑。
I, like, really need them because I believe in them so much.
如果我因此在利息上产生了大额亏损，那对我来说反而是有利的。
If I also then make a big loss on the interest for it, then that's beneficial to me.
所以至少从我的角度来看，这可能是最主要的原因。
So at least from my perspective, that was probably the main thing.
如果我只是跟朋友或家人聊天，我可能会说，这件事涉及很多因素。
And I'd probably if I was just chatting to friends and family, I'd probably say that's the there's many factors at play with this.
但对我而言，最大的影响因素是：如果你年收入是2万美元，那么派发股息的ETF作为起点会非常有意思。
But the single biggest lever for me is like, if your income is $20,000 a year, then dividends paying ETFs are really interesting as a starting point.
如果你年收入只有200美元，那么增长型ETF就会非常有意思。
And if your income is like $200 a year, then the growth ETFs are really interesting.
至少这是我对自己情况的看法。
That'd be at least how I feel about it for myself.
不过我需要澄清一下，这一点因人而异，因为我说了一些相当明确的论断。
Though I do need to disclaim that one with another big like, it's very different for everyone just because there's some pretty assertive statements.
我会说，年收入2万美元的人很可能不会借钱投资。
Well, I would say that the person on $20 is probably not borrowing to invest.
没错。
No.
当然。
For sure.
但你知道，他们中可能有一方没有工作，正在照顾孩子，是的。
But, you know, they might have one of the pair might be not working and looking after the kids Yeah.
或者还有其他因素在起作用，当然。
Or or some other factors at play, for sure.
不。
No.
这是一场有趣的对话。
It's a it's an interesting conversation.
对吧？
Right?
因为你面对的是光谱的两端，这不仅影响你的财务状况，还会影响你的投资体验，进而影响整个投资旅程的心理层面。
Because you've got the two ends of the spectrum where because it not just affects your finances, but it's also gonna affect your investing experience and then therefore the psychological aspect of the whole investing journey itself as well.
比如美国的股市崩盘。
So Like The US crash.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
嗯
Well
你知道，看到那些沉重的、糟糕的投资一路暴跌，真的很让人沮丧，因为我基本上还没从这些ETF的美国部分赚到过一分钱。
You know, having been pretty heavy and, like, gross stuff, seeing that just rocket down is pretty depressing knowing I've still basically never made a dollar off The US portion of those ETFs.
这很复杂，因为我觉得这还取决于你的家庭现金流有多紧张。
It's tricky, man, because I also think it's gonna depend on how tight your household cash flow is.
一般来说，如果你没有大量的盈余现金流，增加债务可能不是最好的选择。
So in general, if you have if you don't have a huge amount of surplus cash flow, taking on more debt probably isn't the best idea.
我会建议你关注其他可能更适合你的财务策略。
I would focus on other financial strategies that are probably gonna work better for you.
但如果你的状况是有一些盈余现金流，能够负担额外的债务，但又对投资于利息支出和投资收益之间存在巨大差距的资产感到不安，那么你可能会更倾向于选择高收益选项。
But if you're in a situation where you have some surplus cash flow so you can service extra debt, but you aren't super comfortable investing in an asset where there's going to be a big gap between the interest that you're paying and the income you're getting from that investment, then you might lean more towards higher income options.
最常见的选择是澳大利亚股票，因为你要支付的利息和从投资中获得的收益之间不会有太大差异。
The most common option would be Aussie shares, where there's not going to be a massive difference between the interest you're paying and then the income you're getting from the investment.
所以你可以这样看待：如果这些股票的收益率大约是5%，而你支付的利息是6%，几乎持平，所以几乎相当于自己在养活自己。
So you can essentially look at it like, Well, if I'm getting a five ish percent yield from these shares and I'm paying 6% interest, it's almost even, so it's almost paying for itself.
那么你可以把它看作是，好吧，我某种程度上获得了免费的上涨空间。
Then you can just look at it as in, Okay, I'm kind of getting free upside.
如果这里出现资本增值，我基本上可以在未来十年或二十年内锁定它，不管怎样。
If there's capital growth here, I can essentially lock that in over the next ten or twenty years, whatever.
所以这就是这种策略。
So that's that approach.
还有一种策略，就是你正在采用的，海登，你更注重税务效率的结果。
And then there's another approach which the one that you're following, Hayden, where you're going more for a tax efficient outcome.
为此，你倾向于选择更高资本增值的资产，比如美国股票或全球股票，但说实话，全球股票主要还是美国股票，这些资产的收益较低，但资本增值较高。
And in doing so, aiming for more higher capital growth assets like that tends to be US shares or global shares, which is mostly US shares anyway to be fair, but where the income from those assets are low and the capital growth is higher.
如果你算一下数字，你投资的资产可能只有1%到2%的收益率，而你支付6%的利息，就会产生4%的现金流亏损。
If you put some numbers to it, you're investing in something that might have a 1%, 2% yield and if you're paying 6% interest, you're making a 4% cash flow loss.
如果你处于高税率档次，你可能会拿回其中2%的税款。
And so if you're on a high tax bracket, you might get 2% of that back.
这实际上降低了这笔债务的成本。
And what that does is it essentially makes the cost of that debt less.
所以，与其支付6%的利息，因为你能拿回2%，实际上你只花了4%。
So rather than paying 6%, because you're getting 2% back, it's really only costing you 4%.
这并不算太糟，因为如果你的资本增值率不错——美国股票和全球股票长期来看通常都有相当不错的资本增值率——你可能会从中获益良多。
So that's not too bad because then if you've got a decent capital growth rate, which US shares, global shares tend to have pretty decent capital growth rate over the long term, you might do pretty well out of that.
但还有另一种观点，我更倾向于这一边。
But then there's another argument that says, And I kind of lean in this camp.
我理解不同的人会根据自身情况选择不同的方案，但我更认同这样的立场：如果你能做得到，最好还是坚持你原本就打算采用的正常投资方式，不要让税务结果、还款需求或其他因素过度影响你的决策。
I do understand that different people are going to choose different options depending on the situation, but I'm more in the camp where if you can, you should probably try and stick with your normal investment approach that you were going to choose anyway and not try and let the tax outcome or the repayment needs or whatever sway you too much into that decision.
因为如果你只是为了避税而调整投资组合或改变策略，我不确定在很多情况下这是否是最佳选择。
Because if you're changing your portfolio around or changing your strategy just for tax, I'm not sure that's the best idea in a lot of cases.
尽管具体情况不同，个人现金流状况也会带来差异。
Even though there will be variances depending on the situation and how much cash flow someone's got.
是的。
Yeah.
这非常非常荒谬，但不行。
It's very, very silly, but no.
我认为戴夫说得对。
It's I think Dave's right.
我想提醒一点的是，我之前曾产生过一种错觉，觉得我过去有个投资组合，然后当我资金回流时，想法就变了。
And I think one thing I'd wanna flag is that I kinda made this illusion before to, oh, you know, how in my past I had a portfolio, and then when I get recycled, thought of it differently.
我需要强调的是，这并不是因为钱变多了，就一定要用不同的方式来处理。
Probably want to stress that that was less about like, oh, because the money's bigger, it's time I have to have a different approach with it.
对我来说，真正的原因是，现在钱变得重要了，我必须认真思考一下。
And for me, it was much more that now that the money's serious, I have to have a serious think about it.
因为我自己，还有其他很多听众，可能都刚接触股票，你们的投资组合可能是长期积累起来的。
Because myself, like other people, I think a lot of other people listening are pretty new to shares, you know, and the portfolio they might have been building up for a while.
你知道，如果你是个没有孩子的年轻人，每月投入10或20美元买ETF，结果怎么样都无所谓，反正靠这点钱也别想退休。
You kinda know that, you know, if if you're a young person without kids and you put 10 or $20 into ETFs, it's gonna be whatever, whatever way, you know, like, that's not gonna, you're not gonna retire on that.
所以，做出正确决策的压力就小得多。
So the pressure to make the right decisions is less.
所以我想说，这并不是说，当我的投资组合变大时，我就必须采用和以前小规模时完全不同的策略；而是说，那一刻迫使我深入思考，因为现在的结果被自然放大了，影响也更大了。
So I'd probably say it's less about, there was a different approach for a bigger portfolio that I'd, I do differently if I had a smaller one again, and it's more like it was a moment that forced me to think really deeply about it because the outcomes now were amplified naturally, and therefore it had a bigger impact.
所以，如果我的业务Pearler出了严重问题，最后只剩下20美元现金，我会把这笔钱投进ETF。
So if I ended up, let's say something went horribly wrong with my business Pearler and all this stuff, and I ended up with just $20 of cash, and I would put it into ETFs.
即使我的税务状况不变，我也会像现在用杠杆资金做债务循环那样投资，因为我的思维方式已经发生了变化。对我来说，这种杠杆情境就像一个转折点，让我觉得在这段旅程中真正学到了一些东西。
And I had the same tax situation, I would invest like I do with the debt recycle the leverage money now, because how my thinking has evolved with it, I guess for me, it was that that leverage situation was like a point where I was like, Okay, feel like I've learned something in this journey now.
为了给听众做个参考，我可以查一下数据，因为我并不想说得太模糊。
For reference for people, I mean, I could look it up, because I don't want to be too vague about it.
但我想我大概把70%的资金投在美国市场，20%投在澳大利亚，10%投在其他西方国家。
But I think I put something like, it's something like 70% of the money I invested in like us and then 20% in Australia and 10% in the cult like other western world.
这算不上极端，但以前可能更接近五五开，戴夫，甚至因为分红抵免听起来太吸引人了，当时我只有2美元，也觉得特别激动。
So it's not that hardcore, but it used to be maybe be closer to fifty fifty Dave, or even because franking credits sounded so exciting to little little young me with $2.
我觉得我曾经投了很多钱。
I think I had a ton of money invest.
所以，这确实是我学习过程中的一个关键转折点。
So yeah, it was really inflection point in my learning, I'd say.
实际上，这挺有意思的，因为我以前没听过有人这样解释：当债务介入这种情境时，风险和涉及的资金都大幅增加，这会迫使你意识到：好吧。
Actually, that's quite interesting, man, because I haven't I haven't heard someone explain it like that before where the existence of or the introduction of debt into a situation like that where there's now way more, I suppose, risk on the line and way more money involved, then forces someone to be like, okay.
让我认真对待这件事，选一个我非常有信心的配置，因为我想做好这件事，毕竟现在涉及的资金更多了。
Let me get super serious about this and let me pick an allocation that I have a lot of conviction in because I wanna do this right because there's more money on the line.
我在这里承担了更大的风险。
I'm taking more of a risk here.
这挺有意思的。
That can it's interesting.
因此，债务本身实际上可能迫使你做出更好的决策，或者至少促使你更深入地思考你的投资，以及你的资金在未来十年左右将放在哪里。
So then the debt itself can actually force you to make better decisions or at least encourage you to think more deeply your investing and where your money's gonna be parked for the next decade or something like that.
这确实挺有意思的。
So that's actually quite interesting.
所以，它实际上能以一种迂回的方式帮助你做出更好的决策。
So it can actually help you in a roundabout way to make better decisions.
这部分与债务的可抵扣性有关，因为你不想买入可能日后会卖出的东西。
Part of that is relating to the deductibility of the debt because you don't want to buy something that you might sell later.
你不想频繁交易或随意操作那些你缺乏信心的资产，因为如果它们下跌，而你又背负着债务，你可能会更加焦虑，更急于抛售资产，心想：‘好吧。’
You don't want to be trading around and fluffing around and something that you have low conviction in because then if it falls, if you've got debt as well, you're probably going to be more anxious about it and more quick to then sell that asset to be like, Oh, okay.
我必须偿还债务。
I have to pay the debt.
因为你对自己长期选择的信心不足。
Because you're not that confident in the long term choice that you've made.
如果你频繁买卖资产，这也会影响债务的可抵扣性。
Then it affects the deductibility of the debt as well if you're kinda buying and selling things as well.
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
For sure.
你提到，通常来说，税收效率高的方式是侧重于资本增值较高的资产。
You know, you made this reference to, like, you know, generally a a tax efficient approach is, like, one with the higher capital growth stuff.
我认为这对很多人来说是成立的。
And I'd say that's true for a lot of people.
因为通常来说，如果你有能力自愿使用债务并增加还款额，那你一般来说收入较高——当然不是所有人，但这种情况更常见。
Because usually, if you're someone who has the capacity to access debt, kind of willingly, and just add more to your repayments, you're someone with a higher income in general, definitely not everyone, but that's more common than not.
所以，如果你收入较高，就会更倾向于选择增长型ETF，而不是股息型ETF。
So and if you're someone with a higher income, you get drawn towards these growth ETFs as opposed to dividend ones.
但举个例子，我不点名具体是谁，但我认识一个人，他们的收入并不高。
But if I just use an example, it's like I won't reference who they are, but someone I know quite well, it's like they don't have a very high income.
他们处于30%的税率档次。
They're in the 30% tax bracket.
他们未来收入可能会提高，因为还在职业发展中，但他们最近或几年前买了一套房子，房价已经大幅上涨了。
They might have a higher income in the future because they're still building their career, but they bought a home recently or, like, a few years ago, and it's definitely gone up in a lot of value.
所以对于像他们这样，收入较低但能利用贷款的人，选择股息型可能反而更有税务优势，因为当你的收入较低时，实时收到的股息可以增加你的成本基础，这样将来出售时——比如你收入很高了——需要缴纳的税款反而更少。举个例子，如果你现在分别花100美元买入VAS和IVV，由于股息不断累积并提高你的成本基础，未来卖出时的应税收益就会更低。
So for someone like them, if you have a low income whilst you access that debt, it could actually be an interesting tax situation for you to take the dividend ones because if you're getting those dividends in in real time whilst your income's lower, it means that one day when you go to sell it, maybe when you have a really high income, you're paying less tax on it because like if you buy a $100 of VAS now and a $100 of IVV, because all those dividends kind of come in and build up your cost base as you go, you're you're gonna have less of a cost of selling it in the future.
这是一类非常精细的策略，只会影响一小部分人。
It's a very nuanced thing that would affect a small proportion of people.
税务问题真的非常复杂。
And tax stuff's really tricky.
你至少应该和多个人聊聊，包括专业人士，来讨论这个问题。
You should chat to at least multiple people, including someone who's a professional about this stuff.
但你知道，这再次说明了这类事情与个人情况的复杂性。
But, you know, it just kind of goes to show again how intricate the personal circumstances are with this stuff as well.
如果你不介意的话，戴夫，我其实有个很简单的问题。
If you don't mind, Dave, I actually have a really quick question.
我今天真的很难集中注意力。
I've been terrible at staying on focus today.
但有人告诉我，他们有100美元，正在考虑债务重组，但他们有一套不错的房子。
But someone said to me that they had a $100 of money, and they were considering debt recycling it, but they have a nice home.
他们的想法是，与其像通常那样通过还款再借款来重组债务，不如我想直接用这笔钱装修房子。
And their idea instead was rather than debt recycle the money as in, you know, pay down the loan and redraw it, I'd actually like to renovate my home.
我认为，如果我用100美元现金装修，房子的价值也会增加100美元。
And I think if I renovate it for a with a $100 of cash, it's gonna increase the value by a $100.
暂且假设这是真的。
Let's assume that's true for the moment.
这是一个很大的假设，实际增幅可能更多或更少。
That's a big assumption could go be more or less.
然后他们说，等我的房子升值后，我就再从贷款中提取更多资金，这样就能获得额外的杠杆。
And then they were like, then once my house has gone up in value, then I will simply draw into my loan more, I'll end up getting that access to that extra leverage.
但在这个过程中，我已经住进了更好的房子。
But now along the way, I have a nicer home.
所以我既得到了更好的房子，又保留了杠杆，也许只是推迟了一年而已。
So I get a nicer home and my leverage, and maybe that just delays it for a year.
但你可是个房地产大亨啊，我之前还开玩笑说你呢。
But you're a big property mogul, as I joked you about.
我以前从来没听说过这种想法，直到最近才听到。
Is that something you've I've never really heard of that until recently as an idea.
你有没有见过有人这么做？是成功了，还是没成功，或者根本没人这么干？
Is that something you've seen people do or is that something you've seen successfully or not or just not at all?
这个方案唯一的问题是，当他们利用房屋升值后的价值贷款时，这笔贷款利息是不能抵税的。
The only issue with that scenario is that by doing that, when they borrow the money when they borrow against the increased value of the home, that won't be tax deductible.
你是说他们会这么做，然后把钱拿去投资吗？
Are you saying that they're gonna do that and then invest the money?
你是这个意思吗？
Is that what you're saying?
是的。
Yeah.
把钱投资到股票里。
Invest the money into shares.
好的。
Okay.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
实际上，这挺有意思的，因为间接地，我某种程度上已经这么做了。
It's actually, that's interesting because in a roundabout way, I've kind of done that.
我只是还没动用房产净值而已。
I just haven't accessed the equity yet.
所以我们买下这栋老房子并进行了翻新，它的价值大幅上涨，部分是因为翻新，部分是因为珀斯的房地产市场。
So we bought this old house and have renovated it and it's gone up in value quite a bit, partly because of the renovation, partly because of the Perth market.
但当我们有能力这么做时——可能在接下来的两年左右——我计划以它作抵押贷款，把之前投入的钱差不多拿回来，然后再进行投资，因为我更愿意把钱拿去投资，而不是继续装修房子，但我也不想住在破房子里。
But when we're in a position to do so, which is probably going to be in the next two years or so, I plan to then borrow against it and more or less get that money back out that I've put in and then invest because I would rather invest the money than renovate the house, but I also didn't wanna live in a shithole house.
所以你可以两者兼顾。
So you could do both.
这正是我的意思。
That's what I mean.
就像，没错。
Like, it's Yeah.
所以，只要确实能投入资金，然后拿回差不多同等数额的钱就行。
So As long as as long as it's true that you can put the money in and get a similar amount out.
对吧？
Right?
这并不是个荒谬的想法。
It's not an absurd idea.
不。
No.
完全不是。
Not at all.
完全不是。
Not at all.
因为我也在想，一旦我用尽了债务循环的潜力，如果我赚到了额外的钱并存了起来，还有什么其他方式可以通过房产获得杠杆呢？
Because I think about that too in terms of, like, once I max out my debt recycling abilities, what is another way I can access leverage through the home if I had extra money that I'd earned and saved?
而另一种可能的方式是，我想办法快速提升我所居住房产的价值。
And that is probably another way is I could try and figure out how do I quickly increase the value of the place that I live in.
显然，‘快速’意味着翻新要花很长时间，然后还得等估值。
Obviously, quickly is like renovations take forever, then you gotta get a value then.
这是一个过程，但这个想法挺有意思。
A process, but it's an interesting idea.
无论如何，这里的陷阱是，我猜大多数人装修房子都是为了自己的品味，结果却过度投资了。
Anyway The trap there is, I guess, the way most people renovate their home is for their own taste, and then they overcapitalize.
然后他们买了一些市场并不认可的东西，只是为了迎合自己的个人品味，结果实际上是在浪费钱
And then they buy things that aren't really valued by the market because they wanna design it to their personal tastes, and then they're not actually like, they're sinking
花了200美元，房价却只涨了100，他们还说：‘但我可是投了这么多钱进去啊。'
up put in $200 and the price goes up by a 100 and they're like, oh, but but I put all this money in.
我在增加价值。
I'm adding value.
我在增加价值。
I'm adding value.
然后他们为各种行为找借口，觉得不管做什么，自己都在提升房产价值。
And then they just justify all sorts of shit because they think they're adding value no matter what they do with it.
所以这很微妙，但确实可能有效。
So it's tricky, but it can work.
但这可能是个危险的下滑趋势，你知道的。
But it's a it can be a slippery slope, you know.
我可以在客厅装个瀑布。
I'll put a waterfall in the living room.
我相信市场会对这个反应很好。
I'm sure that'll market will respond well to that.
那太棒了。
That'd be awesome.
如果你这么做，我会很看重。
I'd value that if you did that.
不过，抱歉把你的话题扯偏了。
Anyway, sorry for pulling you off track though.
你下面有邻居吗？
Do you have neighbors beneath you?
比如，你住在二楼吗？
Like, are you on, like, a 2nd Floor apartment?
我住在三层楼的顶层，过得像个绝对的，你知道的，
Top Floor of three storeys living like an absolute, you know,
顶层的贵族。
Top royalty up floor.
顶层公寓。
Penthouse.
是的。
Yeah.
三楼。
3rd Floor.
顶层公寓。
Penthouse.
如果我跳下去，我可能会在草地上严重受伤，你知道的。
That if I jump off, I I might really, really, really hurt myself on the grass, you know.
所以这并不是，你知道的，不是我买房时想到的，但其实我很快就意识到。
So it's not it's not, you know, not the actually, will really quickly, I didn't think of this when I bought it.
但知道别人的公寓不会漏水影响到我，这种安心感比我意识到的还要大，因为过去一年里，我认识的四个人都遇到过楼上漏水的问题。
But knowing that someone's apartment can't flood and then affect mine has brought me more comfort than I realized after hearing how many people I've like, four people I've known in the last year who've been like, the apartment above me had a flood issue.
今天我下班回来，发现整个客厅的地毯都湿了。
And I came back from, you know, work today and my entire living area was carpet was, you know, wet.
该死。
Damn.
所以我的生活就在
So living my life up
这里。
here.
第二
Second
层。
story.
在云端。
Up in the clouds.
是的。
Yeah.
但我想为了完整说明这些，戴夫，我们一直谈论这个，你知道，你可以贷到房屋价值的80%。
But I think just just to round out all that stuff, Dave, we keep talking about this, you know, you can get 80% of the house value as a loan.
这只是银行在承担风险时开始要求额外资金的额度。
That's just the amount you can get till the banks start wanting extra money for the risk they're taking on.
但无论如何，真正的问题是：你应该使用多少债务？
But regardless, the real question of, like, how much debt should you use?
对于普通人来说，这最终要回归到：在长期情况下，即使情况变得非常糟糕，你仍能负担得起多少还款，同时你对长期结果仍保持信心。
Would for a typical person just come back to how much could you afford to service for the long term, assuming things get really bad, assuming you're still confident on the long term outcome.
比如我自己，我把钱投在了IVV里。
So like I myself have this money in IVV.
我知道，或者不管怎样，它虽然不完全是IVV，但很多美国资产可能会大幅下跌，我的房子也可能大幅贬值。
I know that or whatever, it's not quite IVV, but a lot of US stuff, it might go down a lot, my house might go down a lot.
这两件事都可能持续很多年、很多年、很多年。
Both of those two things could happen for years and years and years.
我相信这个故事最终会有个很好的十年结局，或者二十年结局。
I'm confident that there's a good ten year end of this story, you know, or a twenty year end of this story.
我准备好坚持下去了。
I'm ready to hold on.
即使工作出问题或其他任何意外情况，我依然能继续还款。
I can keep making the payments, even in the cases where something goes wrong with work or whatever else.
如果你能在这种长期信心中找到这种安心感，那么这样做就是值得的。
And like, if you can find that comfort amidst that long term confidence, then it is worth doing it.
我想提醒大家的是，如果你有20万美元的房屋净值可以提取，那确实很不错，对吧？
And I think the thing to always flag with people is if you do have, 200,000 in home equity that you can draw on, that'd be nice, wouldn't it?
没必要一次性全部提出来。
It's like, don't have to take 200 at once.
没人阻止你只提取5万或10万。
Nothing's stopping you taking 50 or a 100.
当然，银行在启动贷款时会收取一点小额费用，但通常这笔费用在中期会逐渐摊薄；你可以分批操作，你知道的，最好的事情往往都是慢慢来的。
And obviously, there's like a tiny fee the bank will charge you for like starting a loan or whatever that'll kind of dissolve over the medium term a lot of the time, but you can do it in chunks, you know, like all the best things are done slowly as well.
所以，别一看到额外的房屋净值就吓坏了，觉得天啊，这么多钱有风险，我可能会输掉一切。
So don't kind of don't kind of look at the extra home equity and think, oh my god, that's a lot of money to risk and I might lose everything.
你没必要孤注一掷。
It's like, you don't have to bet everything.
你知道，你可以先押一点，以后再加一点。
You know, you can bet a little bit, then bet a little more later.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得这很明智。
I think that's sensible.
我觉得这是个好建议，特别是如果你投资股票的时间还不到五年，可能还在逐渐适应市场，尤其是它的起伏波动。
I think that's good advice, especially if you're someone who's been investing in shares for, say, less than five years and you're maybe still getting used to it somewhat, especially the ups and downs.
在你还在建立投资组合、慢慢熟悉这些情况的时候，可能不建议用大量债务进行投资。
You probably don't want to invest with massive amounts of debt while you're still building your portfolio and getting used to things a little bit.
一定要考虑这一点。
Definitely consider that.
但假设你已经这样做了，五年、十年、十五年后，当你考虑财务自由这类时间框架时，有些人会认为：只要我有债务，同时还能获得额外回报，那就总是有利的。
But when it comes to Let's say you've done this and then you're five, ten, fifteen years down the track and you're thinking about financial independence and that sort of a timeframe, sometimes people assume that, Well, if I have debt and I'm getting extra returns, it's always beneficial.
因此，钱越多，就能越早退休，皆大欢喜。
Therefore, more money equals retire sooner and happy days.
虽然这种方法可行，而且使用杠杆在许多情况下确实能让你提前几年实现财务自由，但当你真正打算辞职、退出时，情况就会变得复杂一些。
Although that can work and the process of using leverage can bring your financial independent state forward by a few years in many cases, it gets a little trickier when it comes to actually leaving work and pulling the pin.
因为大多数情况下，尤其是在当前利率为6%的情况下，你从股市和投资组合中同样一笔资金所获得的现金流回报并不会达到6%。
Because in most cases, especially right now when interest rates are 6%, you're not going to be earning 6% in terms of cash flow from that same amount of money tied up in the share market and in your portfolio.
通常来说，你能从这些投资中获得的收入要少得多。
Quite often, the income that you can get from that is going to be a lot less.
本质上，如果你想为提前退休优化现金流，那么最好还是清偿这些债务，因为目前的还款压力相当大。
Essentially, if you want to optimise your cash flow for early retirement, it tends to make sense to actually get rid of that debt in your life because the repayments are quite expensive, especially currently.
即使你的收入减少了，你的支出也会大幅降低。
Actually even though you have less income, you'll have way less expenses.
因此，从某种意义上说，对于同等规模的财富，你的现金流状况反而会更好，这样说你能理解吗？
So then you actually have, I suppose, a better cash flow outcome for the same amount of wealth, if that makes sense.
所以你 definitely 想要关注一下退出策略或债务清偿策略，我想你可以这么称呼它，当你逐渐迈向半退休或财务自由状态时。
So you definitely want to look at, I suppose, exit strategies or debt retirement strategies, I guess you would call it, for later on down the track when you are sort of moving towards a semi retirement or a financial independence scenario.
如果你能负担得起继续偿还债务，并且已经将这部分纳入你的财务规划中，那当然完全没有问题。
Now if you can afford to keep paying the debt and you're kind of building that into your numbers, then by all means, perfectly fine.
保留债务。
Keep the debt.
这样你可能还是会获得更好的长期回报。
And then you'll probably still get a better long term outcome because of that.
但如果你的财富较少，财务缓冲不足，那么使用多种策略还清债务可能是更合理的选择。
But if you're in a position where you've got a little bit less wealth and you don't have that cushion in your numbers, then it probably makes sense to pay off the debt using a variety of strategies.
也许你现在可以聊聊这些策略，老兄。
Maybe you want to talk about those now, mate.
是的。
Yeah.
我可能还会说，这也是为什么有些人会考虑选择更多分红型ETF的原因，因为它们的价格通常比成长型ETF波动更小。
I'd probably also just say this can also be one of the reasons people might want to consider a more dividend heavy ETF as well because because they're generally less likely to fluctuate in price than the growth ETFs.
如果你有一个额外的策略，需要变现ETF来偿还抵押贷款，从而退出这个游戏，那么你也不太可能不得不在市场暴跌时被迫出售。
If you do have an extra strategy where you need to liquidate your ETFs in order to pay off that mortgage and kind of get out of the game, so to speak, it's less likely that you'll have to, you know, sell during a horrific market crash or or something like that.
你知道的，你可能会拥有更多的主动权。
You know, you'd probably have a little bit more control.
我不确定是不是这样。
I don't know about that.
你不这么认为吗？
You don't think so?
不。
No.
我不确定是不是这样，老兄。
I don't know about that, man.
我认为，如果你恰好在糟糕的市场中卖出，无论你投资的是澳洲股票还是美国股票，都不会是好情况。
I think if you if you happen to be selling in a shitty market, it's gonna be it's not gonna be a great scenario whether you're invested in Aussie shares or US shares.
我同意。
I agree.
我觉得，如果你投资的是那种不依赖价格剧烈波动就能上涨的资产，情况只会没那么糟，这么说你能明白吗？
I think it'll just be less bad if you if you've invested in something that doesn't rely on its chart bouncing around on the way up, if that makes sense.
但你知道，像这些事情，你只要等一等就能解决。
But, you know, like all these things, you can solve that just by waiting.
对吧？
Right?
比如，有人半年前买了一大堆VAS和一大堆IVV，然后觉得这太让人压力大了。
Like, if someone bought a whole bunch of VAS six months ago and a whole bunch of IVV, and they were like, this is too stressful.
我想退出这个游戏，只管还清房贷，过简单的生活，你可能会后悔当初买了IVV，因为它乐意在任何时间段内下跌6%。
I wanna get out of this game and just pay off my house and live simply, you'd probably wish you didn't buy the IVV that is happy to go down 6% in whatever period it's been.
但同样，这都只是历史数据。
But again, that's all just historical data too.
你绝对不希望处于被迫卖出的境地。
You definitely wanna be in a situation where you're not a forced teller.
所以，如果你真的会……这其实引出了债务偿还的问题，或者你管这叫什么？
So if if you would actually well, that that kinda leads into the debt retirement or the debt what would you call it?
债务偿还？
Debt retirement?
你在还清债务
You're retiring
债务清偿听起来不错。
Debt retirement sounds good.
债务清偿。
Debt retirement.
好的。
Okay.
这就引出了一个选择：你可以卖出一部分投资，用所得资金还清剩余的房贷或其他债务，然后再过渡到半退休状态，或根据具体情况采取相应行动。
That leads into that where one option is you sell a chunk of investments to then pay off the rest of your mortgage or whatever before you then transition to a semi retirement scenario or whatever the case may be.
你可以一次性完成，但这样会有风险，比如我希望在某个特定日期前完成。
You can do that in one hit, but then you're risking, okay, I wanna do this by a certain date.
我某种程度上是希望或赌定市场在那时（无论是2029年、2032年还是其他时间）至少会表现不错，让我能顺利操作。
I'm kind of hopingbetting that the market will be at least okay for me to do that at that time, whether it's 2029 or 2032 or whatever it might be.
或者你可以采取更渐进的方式，在接近你计划退休的时间点时，逐步增加还债力度。
Or you can take a more gradual approach where you start to pay down more of your debt as you get closer to your preferred timeframe of leaving work.
你可以利用持续的储蓄和投资收益，在一段时间内逐步完成这一过程。
You can use your ongoing savings and then the investment income to do that over a period of time.
或者，如果你预计在退休时会获得一笔一次性款项，或者打算出售投资性房产，或者能够提取养老金或其他类似资金，你也可以选择另一种一次性支付的方式。
Or you can always do a different sort of lump sum approach if you expect to get a lump sum from leaving work or you're going to sell an investment property or you're going to have you know, access to super or something else like that.
所以，到了合适的时候，你可以选择以上任何一种方式来还清债务。
So you could you could do any sort of one of these scenarios to actually get rid of that debt when the time comes.
当然。
For sure.
而且好处是，你以后随时都可以做决定。
And the good thing is you can always choose it later.
对吧？
Right?
比如，你可以选择一次性支付。
Like, you could do it as a lump sum.
也可以选择分小额逐步偿还。
You could do it in smaller amounts.
这些方法都可行。
That'll all work too.
其实并没有什么最好的选择，我不这么认为。
It it doesn't really there's no, like, best option, I wouldn't say.
这些方法都可行。
They can all work.
是的。
Yeah.
当然。
For sure.
我觉得关于退出策略，我不希望把这个话题拖得太久。
I think as well just on exit strategy, I don't wanna drag this one out.
但顺便提一下，你并不需要完全退出，比如你可以调整投资组合的构成。就我目前的情况而言，我的投资偏向高增长型，这意味着每月支出更多、成本更高、不确定性也更大。
But a quick side note is that you don't have to have a full exit to like in terms of you can change your portfolio composition, say like in my case right now, I'm very, high growth, which means that I have more outlays every month, and more costs and more unpredictability.
如果我有了孩子，我完全可以逐步出售部分高增长型资产，转而配置一些更稳定、能产生股息的资产，作为过渡步骤。随着生活状况自然变化——无论是家庭、个人还是财务方面——这种做法都是合理的，因为显然，99%的人在50岁时不会一边背负80万美元的房贷，一边宣称自己已经实现财务自由且毫无压力。
If I was to say I have children, nothing would stop me carefully selling off parts of that portfolio out of high growth into something that's more predictable or dividend paying for instance, as like a part step as your circumstances change naturally, whether it's family, personal, financial, on the journey to eventually selling it out, because obviously 99% of people aren't going to be 50 years old saying, I've achieved financial freedom and have no stress while they have an $800,000 mortgage.
大多数人至少都希望降低一些负债，我觉得是这样。
Most people just kinda wanna reduce that at least, I'd say.
也许不需要完全抛售。
Maybe not get rid of it.
是的。
Yeah.
大多数人确实希望无债一身轻。
Most people do wanna be debt free.
但就收入与增长的讨论而言，我们收到过几封邮件，探讨股息与增长型投资的不同策略，以及在不同时期哪种方式更合适，我们对这两种策略的看法，还有如何在生活中平衡它们。
But just on the income slash growth conversation, we've had a couple of emails about dividends versus growth and different strategies and when one approach makes more sense over the other at various times or what we think of either strategy and how to balance them both in your life.
所以未来我们会专门做一期关于这个话题的节目。
So we'll do a a specific episode on that topic in the future.
敬请关注这一期。
So stay tuned for that one.
完美。
Perfect.
所以我认为，总结一下，戴夫，至少从我这个债务循环使用者的角度来看，这番对话让我重新认识到杠杆带来的收益、风险以及其他方面，非常有启发。
So I think just in summary, Dave, I mean, at least from my perspective as a debt recycling person, this has just been really insightful as a reminder about the benefits and risks and other things of leverage.
而且，对于那些手头现金不多、但拥有大量房屋净值的人来说，利用房屋净值是非常有益的。
And the fact that tapping into your home equity is a great thing for people who just don't have a lot of extra cash lying around, but have a lot of home equity lying around.
人们同时做这两件事也完全没有障碍。
Nothing stops people doing both either.
就像所有的杠杆一样，你必须谨慎对待，要算清楚数字，最好也找你信任的人商量一下。
And just like all leverage, you have to be careful with it, you got to do the numbers, you know, it's always good to bounce it off someone else that you trust as well.
因为这些决定可能都很重大。
Because these things can be big decisions.
即使最终目标是好的，这个过程也可能充满压力。
And they're not always even if the endpoint is good, they can be stressful along the way.
因为归根结底，你是在承担风险，而任何风险都会带来一定程度的压力。
Because, know, you are taking on risk at the end of the day and any risk carries some degree of stress.
所以，是的，仔细想想这对你和你的具体情况是否值得，即使你是否有可提取的房屋净值。
So yes, think about think about whether it is worthwhile for you and your circumstances if you even have any home equity to draw upon.
但当然，敬请关注这个系列的第二部分，我们将讨论杠杆型ETF、保证金贷款和NAB股权建造计划，如果你想要探索其他选择，或者你正在租房、没有房产可以抵押，也要知道杠杆对你同样适用。
But yes, definitely stay tuned for part two of this little series where we're gonna be talking about geared ETFs and margin loans and NAB Equity Builder for those of you who wanna look at different options or who are renting and don't have a home to borrow against because leverage is also available to you too.
我们将在未来的节目中讨论这一点。
We'll discuss that in a future episode.
但我很享受听到债务如何影响你的决策以及你今天对投资的思考方式。
But I quite enjoyed hearing about the difference that the debt made to your decision making and the way you thought about your investments today.
我觉得这非常有趣。
I found that to be quite interesting.
我以前没听过这种说法。
I hadn't heard that before.
希望其他人也喜欢这次讨论。
Hopefully, other people enjoyed this discussion as well.
是的。
Yeah.
真金白银。
Real money.
是的。
Yeah.
这变得真实多了，老兄。
It becomes way more real, man.
风险真正地在你面前亮起了红灯，不是吗？
Way more the risk is kind of shot shone a light in your face there, hasn't it?
当然。
Absolutely.
希望这对大家来说也挺有意思的。
Hopefully, that was interesting for people.
再次感谢收听。
Thanks for listening again.
如果你想联系我们，可以像预期的那样发邮件到 hello@Aussiefirepod.com，或者通过社交媒体联系我，Dave 的账号是 Strong Money Australia，我的账号是 Pearler。
If you wanna reach out to us, you can email us at hello@Aussiefirepod.com as you'd expect it's spelt, or you can reach out to us on socials either Strong Money Australia for Dave or myself through Pearler.
我们非常期待未来能收到你的反馈，感谢你的收听。
We'd love to hear from you in the future, and thanks for tuning in.
每次有这么多听众都让我感到非常愉快，我们下次再见。
It's always a pleasure to to have a crowd, and we'll catch you next time.
谢谢大家。
Thanks, guys.
下次见。
See you next time.
希望你们喜欢这期《Aussie FIRE》节目。
We hope you enjoyed this episode of Aussie FIRE.
如需更多财务自由的灵感，请访问 perler.com，浏览我们的资源、计算器和社区见解。
For more FI inspiration, head to perler.com to browse our resources, calculators, and community insights.
Pearler 是 Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd 的授权代表，编号为 1281540，AFSL 编号为 337927。
Pearler is an authorized representative number 1281540 of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd with AFSL number 337927.
知识就是力量，尤其是在投资时，因此在做出决定前，请务必寻求专业建议，或查阅相关产品的披露文件，包括产品说明书（PDS）和产品披露声明（TMD）。
Knowledge is power, especially when investing, so always seek advice and or check out the relevant disclosure document for any product, including the PDS and TMD before deciding.
这些文件可在产品发行方的网站上获取。
These are available from the product issuer's website.
投资时，您的本金存在风险，过往表现并不能作为未来投资回报的可靠依据。
When you invest, your capital is at risk and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future investment returns.
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