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但你已经处于一个非常棒的位置了。
But you're already in an awesome position.
我认为,由于房贷基本已经还清,你现在几乎可以半退休了。
You could essentially semi retire right now, I would say, since the mortgage is more or less gone.
然后你只需要做一点工作来覆盖剩余开销,稍微投资一点,每年还能抽出一些时间去海外度假。
And then you could more or less work just enough to cover your remaining expenses, maybe invest a little bit, and then spend some time overseas each year as well.
所以这会是一个相当酷的场景。
So that would be a pretty cool scenario.
所以这对夫妇处于一个很好的境地,我觉得。
So this this couples in a a good situation, I would say.
澳大利亚FIRE播客是Strong Money Australia和Pearler的合作项目,Pearler是澳大利亚最受欢迎的枯燥型长期投资平台。
The Aussie FIRE podcast is a collaboration between Strong Money Australia and Pearler, Australia's favorite boring long term investing platform.
欢迎收听我们的主持人——来自Strong Money Australia的Dave和来自Pearler的Hayden,他们将探讨所有关于财务自由的话题。
Join our hosts, Dave from Strong Money Australia and Hayden from Pearler as they discuss all things financial independence.
在澳大利亚FIRE,我们非常推崇分享经验并谈论金钱。
At Aussie FIRE, we're big fans of sharing experiences and talking about money.
但请注意,任何建议均为一般性意见,并未考虑您的财务状况、需求或目标。
However, please note that any advice is general and does not consider your financial situation, needs or objectives.
请自行判断这是否适合您,如有疑问,请咨询持牌财务顾问。
Consider whether it's appropriate for you and if in doubt, speak to a licensed financial advisor.
嘿,大家。
Hey, guys.
欢迎回到澳洲FIRE播客。
Welcome back to the Aussie FIRE podcast.
在今天的节目中,我们为大家带来另一个有趣的案例研究。
In today's episode, we've got another interesting case study for you.
从我们的邮箱来看,我想我们可能最终得每周推出一集。
And just by the looks of our our email inbox, I think we might go have to weekly episodes at some stage.
案例研究的数量远远超出了我们能处理的范围。
There's way more case studies than we can actually keep up with.
我们很乐意收到这些案例,但我们也意识到,很遗憾无法全部处理,因为我们确实特别喜欢做这些内容。
We're happy to get them, but just realised that we won't be able to get to all of them, unfortunately, because we do actually like doing those in particular.
它们非常有趣。
They're very fun.
在本集后面,我们还会回答一些有趣的问题。
Later in this episode, we've also got some interesting questions.
其中一个问题是来自一个处境跟我刚到珀斯时非常相似的人。
One of them is from a guy with a very similar situation to actually what I had when I first came to Perth.
他说他来西澳时银行里只有1000美元,这和我的情况非常非常相似,如果你还记得的话。
He says he came to WA with $1,000 in the bank, which is very, very similar to my scenario, if you might recall.
里面还有一个问题关于使用ChatGPT获取投资建议。
And there's another question in there about using ChatGPT for investing advice.
我以前没听说过有人这么做,但我们会深入探讨这个问题,它实际上涉及退休规划以及未来靠投资组合生活时能预期的回报。
I haven't heard of people doing this before, but we'll unpack that particular question, which is actually around retirement planning and sort of what kind of returns to expect when you're gonna be living off your portfolio in the future.
我们稍后也会解析这个问题。
So we'll unpack that one later as well.
但先来说说今天个案研究吧,伙计。
But onto today's case study, mate.
我们开始吧。
Let's do it.
期待已久,戴夫。
Looking forward to it, Dave.
和往常一样,我们会尽力提供一些值得思考的内容,以及在类似情况下我们可能会采取的行动。
As always, we'll do our best to give some things to think about and what we might do in a similar situation.
你可能已经注意到,通常并没有一种正确的做法。
You might have noticed very often that there isn't a right approach.
很多时候,这取决于你的个人优先事项和目标,请记住这一点。
Many times, it does depend on your personal priorities and goals, so please keep that in mind.
世界上几乎不存在普适性的建议。
There is pretty much no universal advice in the world.
所有建议都取决于具体情况。
It is all situation dependent.
因此,尽管我们会对这些案例研究进行评论,请记住,我们很多时候只是在非常模糊的背景下评论这个人,如果我们更深入了解他们,这些建议甚至可能并不适合他们。
So whilst these case studies we will comment on, please remember we're simply commenting on this person at a very, very vague context a lot of the time, and this might not even be good advice for them if we learned more about them as well.
因为每个人的背景总是存在细微差别和复杂性。
Because there's always nuance and there's always subtleties in everyone's background.
这种枯燥又烦人的免责声明真够没完没了的。
Such a boring and annoying disclaimer to go through.
嘿。
Hey.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
就像那些‘四岁以下儿童请勿放入口中’的警告一样。
It's always it's well, it's like all it's like the do not place in child's mouth under four disclaimers.
你知道的,我们99.9%的听众都明白,他们不会真的因为戴夫说‘你应该卖房’就去卖掉自己根本没拥有的房子。
It's like, you know, we we know that 99.9% of our listeners get it and aren't gonna be like, I'm gonna go sell my house that I don't own because Dave said you should sell your house kind of thing.
对。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
所以今天,在我们的案例研究中,有一位34岁的人和女朋友住在一起。
So today, in our case study, we've got a 34 year old who's living with their girlfriend.
他们没有任何投资。
They've got no investing.
他们正在考虑移居海外,与家人共度时光,权衡房产选择,并思考下一步该怎么做。
They're considering moving overseas to spend time with family, weighing up their property options, plus wondering what their next step should be.
他们基本情况的财务数据是:年收入9万美元,年支出5.3万美元。
The basic financial details of their situation is that they have $90,000 of income, $53,000 of expenses, both those would be per year.
至于投资和债务方面,他们拥有2.2万美元的股票,还有一笔抵押贷款,但已经完全抵消了。
And then in terms of investments and debt, there's $22,000 of shares, and then there's a mortgage that they have, but it is completely offset.
现在我将直接朗读这位向我们求助的听众的来信。
So now I'm just gonna read from the listener who's reached out to us.
我们现在主要想决定的是,在抵押贷款已完全抵消、应急基金也已初步建立的情况下,下一步该怎么做。
The main thing we are trying to decide now is what the next steps are with the home loan completely offset and emergency fund well on the way.
我们正在讨论未来几年是否要孩子,以及是否休一年假搬到拉丁美洲,以便更接近我女朋友的家人。
We're discussing whether we have kids in the next few years, as well as taking a year off and moving to Latin America to be closer with my girlfriend's family.
我们有几个选项来实现这一年的休假计划并为其提供资金。
We have a few options to do this and help fund our year off work.
这些选项包括:存下大量现金、在那边做些零工来资助旅行、可能进行债务重组投资于股票(但并非必要,因为我们无论如何都会出租我们的主要居所)、在澳大利亚购买投资房产,同时在这里保持收入,希望实现中性杠杆并能自我维持,用我们主要居所的租金来帮助偿还贷款。
Those options include save up a lot of cash, do little bits of work over there to help fund the trip, possibly debt recycling to shares or not necessary as we'll be renting our primary place of residence anyway, buy an investment property in Australia while having income here, hopefully, neutrally geared and will look after itself, use the rent from our primary place of residence to assist covering the loan.
下一个选项。
Next option.
这是第五个选项。
This is option five.
还有一个机会是在拉丁美洲的旅游区购买一栋房子,价格约为40万美元,我猜这是指澳元。
There is also the opportunity to buy a house in a tourist area over there in Latin America for approximately $400,000, which I'm assuming is an Australian.
那是我。
That was me.
住在里面,同时将其作为投资房产。
Live in it, and then have it as an investment property.
我女朋友是拉丁美洲的公民,所以不存在外国人购房限制的问题。
My girlfriend's a citizen of Latin America, so no foreign over ownership issues.
最后一个选择:留在澳大利亚,再住几年,早日实现财务自由,每年出去旅行,但继续赚取澳大利亚的收入。
Last option, stay here in Australia and continue to live for a few more years and reach financial independence sooner and just do trips each year but keep earning an Australian income.
另外,戴夫和海登,你们有什么建议吗?关于如何削减开支,或者我们该做些什么不同的事?
Also, Dave and Hayden, any tips you guys have on cutting back expenses or things we should do differently?
正如你们所见,如果没有房贷,我们仍然只存下收入的22%,我觉得这太离谱了。
As you can see, without the home loan, we are still only saving 22% of our income, which I feel is insane.
案例研究结束。
End of case study.
太有趣了,老兄。
Very interesting, man.
这里有很多选择需要考虑,确实是一种不寻常的情况。
Lots of options, I suppose, to consider here and kind of an unusual situation, really.
我想,很少有人会像你们这样,考虑出国待一年。
Not that many people in this boat, I would say, with a situation where they might be considering moving overseas for a year.
我觉得这确实很不寻常。
It is quite unusual, I'd say.
根据他们提到的这些事情来看,似乎他们在做决定时有点纠结。
Judging by the number of things they've mentioned, it sounds like they're maybe struggling a little bit with what to decide.
这里不仅涉及财务问题,还有生活方式和不同的优先级,而我们不幸地并不清楚这些优先级在重要性排序中究竟如何排列,哪个更高一些。
There's not just financial stuff in here, there's lifestyle stuff in here as well and different priorities that we unfortunately don't know exactly where the different priorities sit on the level of the scale of importance, which one's above certain other ones.
所以我们会逐一分析他们提到的各个领域和事项,并对每一点提出一些看法。
So we'll run through each of the different areas and different things that they've touched on, and we'll offer a couple of thoughts on each thing.
最后,我们会看看这些因素如何组合成一些可行的选项和前进的步骤。
And then at the end, we'll see how it might combine itself into some workable options and some steps forward.
那么我们首先来讨论一下开支方面。
So the first thing that we'll cover, I'll say the expenses side of things.
当然,有几项开支,对吧?
Look, there are a couple, right?
每年50美元并不算高。
So $50 a year is not overly high.
考虑到这里没有房贷,这个数额不算特别低,但也不算特别高。
It's not super low considering that there's no mortgage here, but it's not super high either.
所以在这方面,他们可能不需要做太多调整。
So there's probably not a lot they need to do in that regard.
根据他们在这里提到的内容以及一些后续会谈到的评论,他们可能在旅行上的开销稍微多一些,这完全没问题。
Might be judging by what they've said here and some comments they've made, which we'll touch on later, they might be spending a bit more on travel, which is perfectly fine.
我认为他们目前的状况非常适合这样做。
I think they're in a pretty good position to do that.
所以目前我不建议在支出方面做太多调整。
So I wouldn't do too much on the expense side of things right now.
让我印象深刻的是他们的收入,每年只有90美元。
The income side of things stands out to me where they're earning $90 a year.
我不确定这个数字是涵盖两个人的,还是听众只提到了自己的收入,而没有包括伴侣的收入。
I'm not sure if that is covered for both people or the listener has just mentioned their own income and not the income of their partner.
我真的不太确定。
I'm not really sure.
但对于两个人来说,每年9万美元实际上相当低。
But for two people, $90 a year is actually fairly low.
这相当于两个人全职工作时的最低工资或偏低工资水平。
That kind of equates itself to something like full time minimum wage or low ish wages for two people working full time.
在这种情况下,我不惊讶他们的储蓄率不高。
In that case, I'm not surprised that the savings rate is not super high.
他们可能漏掉了伴侣的收入。
It's possible that they did leave their partner's coming out.
我不太确定,但我们现在先按9万美元来算吧。
Not too sure, but we'll work on $90 for now, I'll say.
还有什么需要关注的吗
Is there anything that
我认为可以假设这是合并后的收入,因为他们提到了22%。
I reckon assume it's the combined given that they said 22%.
合并?
Combined?
好的。
Okay.
对。
Yeah.
但我们并不确定,不过我们会假设是合并的。
But we don't know, but we're going to assume combined.
是的。
Yeah.
不。
No.
其实这个想法很好。
Good good call, actually.
但如果真是这样,我可能会考虑增加收入,因为这非常可行。
But if if that's the case, I would probably look at earning more income because that's very, very doable.
如果你一个人每月收入45美元,而且是全职或几乎全职工作,那么在几乎所有行业中,你都有很大的空间赚取比这多得多的收入。
If you're earning, say, $45 per person while working full time or or mostly full time, there's definitely a lot of upside there in almost every industry to earn quite a bit more than that.
海登,你对收入和支出有什么想法吗?
Do you have any thoughts in on the income and expenses, Hayden?
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得看起来是这样。
It's think look.
戴夫说得对,归根结底,财富主要是在人生的早期阶段通过收入积累的,其他一切都不过是点缀、催化剂之类的东西。
Dave's right on like, at the end of the day, wealth is mostly built in the early stages of life with income, everything else is just kind of garnish and catalysts and things like that.
所以,如果你有能力增加收入,那就去争取吧。
So you know, if you have the capacity to get more income, then go for it.
但显然,我认为对大多数人来说,大多数澳大利亚人并不会坐在那儿想:‘这真是个好主意。’
But obviously, I think like it's true with most people, most Australians are not sitting around being like, that's a great idea.
我会去赚比我以前挣得更多的钱。
I will go earn more money that I previously wasn't earning that I could.
所以我理解,每个人都有自己的处境,这可能就是他们目前最现实的选择。
So I'm sympathetic that, you know, there's everyone's got circumstances, and that's probably just what's working at the moment.
关于支出方面,是的,如果你没有在还房贷,每年花50块钱可能已经算高的了。
On the expenses thing, yeah, like, if you're not paying down the mortgage, $50 a year is probably is probably on the high side.
那里肯定有些地方可以削减。
There's probably things to cut down in there.
考虑到你提到或至少暗示过你没有孩子,而且你将承担的住房成本基本只是房产税和水电气费用。
Think given that you've mentioned or implied at least that there's no children and that the the housing costs you're gonna have are pretty much gonna be just rates and water utilities.
那里肯定还有一些开销。
There's gonna be something there.
大多数人考虑支出时,通常首先会看交通工具。
The first thing for most people to look at when it comes to expenses are typically vehicles.
同样,我不想跟Dave深入探讨,因为我们可能会花一小时猜测这个人可能的各种情况,但交通工具肯定是优先考虑的项目。
It's again, I don't wanna go too deep with Dave because like we could just speculate for an hour on the different kinds of situations this person has, but vehicles would be high up on the list.
食物或社交支出也可能偏高,不过就我个人的感觉而言,尤其是关于食物这类开销,我经常思考:一辆5万美元的车和一辆3万美元的车,其财务影响确实很大。
Some food or social spending is high too though I kind of my general feeling at least with food and stuff is that, like, I think about this a lot, know, the financial impact of a $50,000 car versus $30,000 car is pretty significant.
但据我经验,这并不会真正深刻地改变人们的生活。
And in my experience, it doesn't really change people's lives that deeply.
每周外出六次而不是两次,对人们来说差异非常大,你知道,那是完全不同的社交生活。
The difference in going out six nights a week instead of two is quite significant to people, you know, that's a very different social life.
这非常有趣,实际上会对你的生活时间等各方面产生重大影响。
It's very fun, it actually has big impacts on your time and, all this kind of thing.
所以我不想深入讨论你是否外出就餐太多这类问题,因为我觉得这很棘手,特别是如果你一年内不可能因此节省数万美元的话。
So I don't want to get too into the like, you know, if you're eating out too much kind of thing, because I think that's tricky, particularly if you're, you know, you're not going to save tens of thousands of dollars here a year.
但是啊,没有更多信息很难判断,不过汽车应该是我首先会关注的地方。
But yeah, hard to know without mob, but car would be the first point, 'd first place I'd look at least.
我们可能再次不清楚,但有可能他们在早年存了很多钱,用来还清或完全抵消了房贷。
It's possible we don't know again, but it's possible they actually saved a lot in earlier years to pay off their or to fully offset their home loan.
而近年来,他们可能因为处于舒适的状态,开始在旅行和其他方面多花一点钱。
And now maybe in recent years, they've started to spend a little bit more on travel and other stuff as they're in that comfortable position.
我经常看到有人这么做,事实上这没什么不对的。
I see people doing that quite a bit, and there's nothing wrong with that to be fair.
一旦你达到了舒适和相对财务安全的阶段,适当放松一下、更多地享受生活是完全合理的。
Once you reach a position of comfort and a position of relative financial security, it makes perfect sense to then take your foot off the gas and start enjoying life a little bit more.
所以这可能是这里发生的情况,但他们能在34岁就做到房贷抵消,这做得真是太棒了。
So that could be potentially what's happened here, but they've done an incredible job of being in a mortgage offset position in what is it?
34岁。
Age 34.
这简直太厉害了。
That's pretty damn awesome.
如果我们简单聊聊与房贷相关的债务循环问题,你说得对。
If we just touch on the related to the home loan, the debt recycling thing, you're right.
其实没必要,因为如果你在拉丁美洲时把房子出租,房贷利息本来就可以抵税。
It's not really necessary because if you're going to be renting out your home while you're in Latin America, then the mortgage is going to be tax deductible anyway.
而且既然已经完全抵消了,你可能根本不会支付任何利息。
And since it's fully offset, you're probably not going to be paying any interest.
这一点也值得考虑。
There's that to consider as well.
所以,债务循环实际上没有任何真正的好处。
So really no real benefit to debt recycling.
而且,这也不一定能为旅行提供资金,因为投资这笔钱所产生的投资收益,将低于你如果把全部资金从抵消账户中取出所需的房贷还款额。
And it also wouldn't help you necessarily fund the trip because investing that money is going to leave you with investment income that is going to be less than your mortgage repayments if you were to pull that all out of the offset.
所以这实际上也会对你的现金流造成一点负担。
So that would actually cost you a little bit of money in cash flow as well.
我认为更重要、更关键的是决定正确做法的因素。
I suppose what's the more important stuff, the more critical stuff that's going to determine what the right kind of move is.
那就是他们选择停留或居住的地点,以及孩子的问题,因为他们正在讨论未来几年是否要孩子。
And that would be the location that they choose to stay in or live in and the kids aspect as well because they're discussing whether they have kids in the next few years.
我认为这将真正决定最理想的行动方案。
I think this is gonna really determine what will be the ideal course of action.
你觉得呢,海登?
What do you think, Hayden?
这是个大问题。
It's a big one.
是的。
Yeah.
孩子这件事太重要了。
The kids thing is is massive.
我的意思是我多多少少能理解。
I mean, I can probably somewhat relate.
我不确定是不是计划在未来几年要孩子,但 definitely 是未来五到十年内。
I don't know if I don't know if I'd say I'm planning for kids in the next few years, but definitely the next five to ten.
所以我多少能体会到那种感觉——确实会稍微改变财务格局。
So I kind of get that feeling a little bit of like, it does change the financial landscape a little bit.
这真的很难,因为显然,如果你的房贷已经完全抵消,积累了一笔不错的积蓄,从我的角度看,你大概有两种选择:假设你现在刚从旅行回来,你可以把积累的这笔资金用作一个丰厚的缓冲,撑过最初四五年甚至更久的困难时期,不必太焦虑,必要时慢慢消耗你的抵消账户。
It's really hard because obviously, like, if you've got your mortgage fully offset, you built up a nice little nest egg, and you probably have two general approaches with it from my perspective, which would this this is, I guess, assume, let's say you're back now from your trip or something, you can either, like, use all that capital you built up to build a nice cushiony buffer and get through the first four or five years or whatever difficult period it is without stressing too much, you know, and kind of eat into your offset if you need to.
因为根据你的收入情况,我猜你确实需要这么做,毕竟在很多情况下,养孩子并不便宜。
Because I imagine based on your income and stuff, you'll need to a little bit given that children aren't necessarily cheap in many cases.
或者你可以选择债务循环的路径,开始构建投资组合,让生活在未来十年、十五年、二十年的维度上变得更好,但这会以短期内更大的财务压力为代价。
Or you could go down the route of, say, doing debt recycling, start building up a portfolio so that life looks better in like a ten, fifteen, twenty year horizon, but that will come at the cost of like more kind of financial stress in the short term.
至少我是这么看待这些问题的:把钱投入投资而非留在现金或抵消账户中,通常能让你在长期受益,尽管短期内会承受更多压力。
At least that's how I think about these things is, you know, trying to trying to get your money in investments as opposed to kind of cash and offset will just set you up for the longer term, typically better by putting stress in the short term.
而且这件事根本没有非黑即白的做法。
And there's there's no binary approach to this either.
如果你一开始有30万美元的房贷,完全有可能拿出其中一半、四分之一,或者80%来投资。
It's totally possible if you had a $300,000 mortgage to start investing half of that or a quarter of it or 80% of it.
我觉得这是你应该去探索的方向。
I think that's something you should explore.
至于你打算投入多少资金构建投资组合,这完全取决于你的个人情况和风险偏好——是投入一小笔、一大笔,还是中间的某个数额。
Think the real question of the amount of that you start trying to invest in something that's going to be a portfolio will just depend on your circumstances and risk appetites as to whether that's, you know, a tiny amount, a large amount or anything in between.
至少这是我给你的建议,戴夫。
That'd be my my go to at least, Dave.
是的,我认为,如果你假设他们将来会要孩子,那么他们就需要决定,正如海登你说的,他们要多激进地规划财务。
Yeah, I think this, like, if you assume that they're gonna have kids, and then they're gonna have to decide how much to your point, Hayden, how much they or how aggressively they approach their finances.
他们想投资得越多,可能就意味着房贷会一直伴随着他们,如果他们把钱拿去投资的话。
The more they want to invest, that's probably going to mean those mortgage repayments stay in their life if they invest the money.
这意味着在他们收入可能最低的时候——因为至少有一方父母会在家照顾孩子一段时间,甚至更久——他们将面临更大的压力和更高的工作要求。
And so it's going to mean more pressure and more work requirements at that time when they have probably less income in their lives because one parent's going to be at home for at least a while, possibly for an extended period depending on how they choose to approach it.
还有开支方面的问题,这些也会增加,因此又带来了更多压力。
And then there's the expense side of things as well, which goes up, so that's a little bit more pressure again.
这取决于他们希望拥有多少灵活性,以及在这种情况下想要多少内心的安宁。
It's going to depend how much flexibility and I suppose how much peace of mind they want in such a scenario like that.
但谈到他们可能迁往拉丁美洲,如果他们几年后要孩子,这可能会改变他们想居住的地方。
But touching on their possible move to Latin America, if they're going to do that and have a kid in a few years, that might actually change where they want to live.
如果他们选择要孩子,他们可能会想回到拉丁美洲,以便更靠近家人生活。
They might actually want to go back to Latin America to then live closer to family after they have a kid if they choose to do that.
因为我认为,这可能是他们人生中的一个关键时刻,届时他们会开始反思自己在做什么、要去哪里,以及真正想要怎样的生活方式。
Because I think that that will be maybe a pivotal moment in their life where they'll start to question what they're doing and where they're going and how they actually want to live.
这可能也会改变一些事情。
That might actually change some things as well.
所以他们也应该考虑一下这一点。
So they should probably think about that as well.
这同样可能改变他们的财务状况。
And that might change the financial picture too.
显然,如果他们搬到拉丁美洲,财务结果将与留在澳大利亚做零工完全不同。
Obviously, if they move to Latin America, that's gonna have a totally different financial outcome than staying in Australia with a gig.
是的。
Yeah.
而且如果你看看他们之前提出的那些选择:存现金、海外工作、尝试债务循环、购买投资房产、在海外买房。
And if you look at those options that they presented earlier, save up cash, work overseas, try debt recycling, buy an investment property, buy a house overseas.
我很难对在海外买房这一项发表评论,因为我对此知之甚少。
I can't really comment on the house overseas part because I know so little about it.
但我想说的是,我大概不会太纠结于存一大笔现金这一点。
But all I'd say is I probably wouldn't get caught up on the save up a lot of cash one.
为什么呢?
It's like, why?
你已经存了不少现金,放在抵扣账户里了。
Like, you've already saved up a lot of cash sitting in your offset account.
如果你已经完全抵扣了房贷,那么在未来十二个月或二十四个月内,你几乎不可能通过其他方式显著提升你的财务安全,因为你已经把贷款完全抵扣了。
If you fully offset the mortgage, you're not gonna do anything in twelve, twenty four months that's gonna materially improve the security you have financially if you fully offset the loan.
所以你就已经存够了钱。
So it's like you've saved up the cash.
如果只是存钱,就直接跳过这一点吧。
If if it's just saving up cash, just move past that one.
如果你觉得去那边工作不会带来麻烦,那总是个不错的选择。
The work over there is always a good thing if you don't think it'll like cause any grief.
过去三年我每次旅行都工作了,因为我有能力做到,而且这样带来的财务保障,远大于它对我的体验造成的负面影响,你知道的。
Like all of the travel I've done in the last three years, I have worked on every trip because I've been able to and the financial security I have from doing that outweighs the impact to my experiences, the negative impact, you know.
但你并没有在那些地方工作。
But you didn't work in those locations.
你的意思是,你没有在那些地方找到工作。
Like, you didn't get jobs in those locations.
我觉得这对夫妇实际上是在讨论在那些地方找工作。
I think this couple is actually talking about getting work in the locations.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
是的。
Yeah.
这是一个重要的区别。
That is that is an important difference.
对某些人来说,这可能是一种很好的方式,来打破那种可能让人感到麻木的状况——突然间你在一个陌生地方没有工作,每天有十六个小时无事可做。
And it's like, for some people, it might be a great way to break up what could feel mind numbingly kind of, you know, suddenly you're without work in a different place, and you've got sixteen hours a day to kill.
对另一些人来说,这可能会严重削弱一次难得的放松体验。
For other people, it could really take away from what's a once in a lifetime experience to go and relax.
这完全取决于你自己,但你知道,我的做法是,每个人都应该尽可能多地工作,直到要么没活可干,要么工作开始对自身产生负面影响。
Like, that's really up to you, but, like, you know, if you can like, my approach with stuff is, like, everyone should work as much as they can until they either run out of work or until it impacts them negatively.
工作是好事。
Like, work is good.
这有助于你积累资本。
It helps you build up capital.
我们都需要钱,对吧,为了长远考虑。
We all need we all need money, right, for the long term.
我觉得你提到戴夫的引用也特别到位。
And and I think you've nailed it with, like, the and Dave references too.
如果你在澳大利亚出租自己的主要住所,那也会是一个不错的现金流情况。
If you're renting out your primary place of residence in Australia, that's that's gonna be that's gonna be a good cash flow situation too.
当然,这可能也取决于你住在哪儿以及具体情况如何。
And obviously, I guess it depends where you're staying and what's going on as well.
比如,你是和家人住在一起吗?
Like, are you staying with family?
还是住其他地方?
Are you staying whatever else?
我本来想说,拉丁美洲应该很便宜吧,但最近我第一次去智利时,自己都惊讶了,那是我经历过的最花钱的一次旅行。
I'd like to kinda say, oh, I imagine Latin America's cheap though, you know, I I surprised myself when I went to Chile for the first time recently, and it's been one of the most financially difficult trips I've done.
所以我不想这么说。
So I don't wanna say that either.
哇。
Wow.
是的,那真是一段糟糕的经历。
Yeah, it was it was horrible.
我去那里是因为大家都说那里很浪漫,那种真正地道的西班牙语智利风格,而且价格实惠。
I went there because everyone was like, they they romanticized it like, you know, it was kind of that real, you know, genuine kind of Spanish Chilean affordable kind of thing.
但我想是因为我2023年去的,那时通货膨胀已经开始了。
But I think what had happened because I went there in 2023, like inflation had hit.
所以汇率和通胀叠加起来,麦当劳的一个巨无霸套餐竟然要20澳元。
So like in the between the exchange rates and inflation, it was like a Big Mac meal at McDonald's was like 20 Australian dollars.
那真的让人很沮丧。
It was it was really upsetting.
但我的意思是,我不想为自己感到难过,就像薯条端上来一样
But I mean, you know, I don't want to I don't want to feel bad for me is like the the fry coming in
当你走进一家大型
As you come into a big
麦当劳。
mac.
很艰难。
Struggling.
不过,戴夫,我可没花那些钱买巨无霸。
Well, I I didn't get a big mac for those prices, Dave.
但确实如此。
But yeah.
不,不是这样的。
What no.
但关键是,我相信肯定还有一些旅游目的地依然很贵。
But, know, it's like point is that, like, I'm sure I'm sure there's still some fairly expensive places to travel to.
但如果你把它租出去,那会非常有帮助。
But if you're renting it out, that'll be super helpful.
这也很棒,因为我并不是这方面的税务专家,但我很确定,如果你在澳大利亚出租你的主要居所,只要你不申报其他地方作为主要居所,你仍然可以将其视为你的主要居所。
And it's great too because I'm not a tax expert on this, but I'm pretty sure if you if you rent out your primary place of residence in Australia, you can still leave it as your primary place of residence as long as you don't declare something else too.
对吧?
Right?
所以长期来看,不会因为第二套房子而受到太大影响。
So there's not gonna be, like, a hit long term on, like, a second house.
对吧?
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
是的。
Yeah.
只要你没有另外一套房子声称也是你的主要居所,因为那样行不通。
As long as you don't have a another house that you're trying to say is also your primary place of residence because that won't fly.
是的。
Yeah.
这很好,因为有些人出租房屋后,会因为房子在一段时间内被认定为投资性房产,而在出售时不得不缴纳额外税款,这可能会对他们出售房产造成影响。
Which is great because some people get caught up when they rent out the house and then suddenly because it was technically an investment property for a bit, now they have to pay extra tax on it when they sell it, which can be an impact if they do want to sell it.
所以,这很好,因为你并没有在澳大利亚购买另一套房子,从而可以避开这个问题。
So it's great that you can kind of skirt around that as well because you're not, you know, buying a different home in Australia.
所以,是的,我认为让他们享受这一年假期是个好主意,不管他们在那里是否工作。
So yeah, do think it's a do think it's a good idea that they enjoy their year off, whether they work or not over there.
这取决于他们对自己在那里如何度过时间的看法。
That's going to depend on how they see themselves spending their time when they are there.
我想他们可以把这当作是对自己过去十年左右辛苦还清房贷的一种大休息。
I suppose they could treat it like a big break for their hard work of more or less paying off their mortgage, which they've probably done over the last ten years or so.
这取决于他们想如何安排自己的时间。
It's going to depend how they want to spend their time.
至于房产选择,我对在拉丁美洲购买投资性房产一无所知。
As for the property options, again, no idea on buying an investment property in Latin America.
在合适的位置做Airbnb可能会非常盈利,但这方面需要考虑和研究的东西很多。
Airbnb in the right spot could be extremely profitable, but there would be a lot to consider and a lot to research in that regard.
你已经有一处房产可以产生收入,所以其实并不一定非得再买另一处。
You already have one property that you're going be able to collect income from, so you don't really necessarily need another one.
从长远来看,这可能会有帮助,但你提到过要找一个收支平衡或正向现金流的澳洲房产。
It could help you long term, but suppose you touched on finding an Aussie property that's going to be neutral or positively geared.
说实话,这可能相当困难,因为要实现收支平衡或类似目标,你需要相当高的租金回报率,比如8%、9%、10%,才能在扣除所有费用后获得5%、6%的净收益。
Honestly, that's probably going to be quite difficult to do because to have one that is actually neutrally geared or whatever, you're going to need a pretty decent sized rental yield, like 8%, 910% to actually get 5%, 6% after all costs are involved.
这很难做到。
That's going to be difficult to do.
这还取决于你在享受这一年假期的同时,愿意承担多少债务、支出和风险。
And it depends how much debt and outgoings and risk you want to have while you're trying to enjoy that year off.
这可能会给你的计划带来额外的压力,而你可能并不真正想要这种压力。
That could put a bit more stress into your scenario that you might not really actually want.
因为我们讨论的是一对已经存了又存、积攒了大量现金来全额抵消房贷的夫妇,从本质上讲,他们很可能是一对保守型的伴侣。
Because we're talking about a couple who has saved and saved and saved, a lot of cash to fully offset their mortgage, by nature, that's probably a conservative couple.
我不确定你究竟想承担多少债务,在你试图与家人共度一年的时候,还要面对另一个国家的房产压力。
I don't know how much debt you actually want to take on and have that kind of scenario hanging over you with properties in another country while you're trying to enjoy a year with family.
我不确定这是否是最合适的选择,尽管它可能是一个不错的长期选项。
I'm not sure that's the best fit, even though it could be a good long term option.
但关于如何资助这一年休假,正如海登所说,你已经积累了大量现金,所以你完全可以直接使用现有的现金,几乎不会增加任何债务。
But as for funding the year off, like Hayden said, you've already got a lot of cash, so you could simply just use the cash that you have and it's really not going to make much debt at all.
我们还不知道具体会在拉丁美洲的哪个地方,但我猜那里的生活成本会比澳大利亚低,尤其是如果你和家人住在一起的话。
We don't know exactly where in Latin America, but I would imagine that it would be cheaper than living in Australia, especially if you're staying with family.
但如果长期目标是尽快实现财务自由,而你决定不进行这一年休假,那么我会建议你尽量增加收入。
But if the long term goal is to achieve financial independence as soon as possible and you decide not to go ahead with the year off, then I would say focus on increasing your income if you can.
这可能会比削减开支带来更大的影响,或者在这个特定情况下,可能更容易实现。
That'll probably make a bigger difference than cutting your expenses or it might be easier just with this particular scenario.
这还会为你提供额外的现金,不仅可用于投资,还可能让你更频繁地探望家人——如果这对你来说是一件重要的持续性事情的话。
And that'll also give you extra cash to not only invest, but then maybe also visit family more often if that's going to be an important ongoing thing that you want to do.
但你现在已经处于一个非常棒的位置了。
But you're already in an awesome position.
你现在基本上可以半退休了,我觉得,因为房贷基本已经还清了。
You could essentially semi retire right now, I would say, since the mortgage is more or less gone.
然后你只需要做一点工作来覆盖剩余开销,稍微投资一点,每年再抽出一些时间去海外度过。
And then you could more or less work just enough to cover your remaining expenses, maybe invest a little bit and then spend some time overseas each year as well.
所以这将是一个相当棒的方案。
So that would be a pretty cool scenario.
因此,这对夫妇目前的处境很不错,我觉得。
So this couples in a good situation, I would say.
我同意。
I agree.
我认为,就像我们在很多案例中看到的那样,恭喜你们把自己置于一个良好的财务位置。
I think it's I mean, like we we have with many of these case studies, congratulations for, you know, putting yourself in a strong financial position.
许多澳大利亚人都是负债状态。
Many Australians are in net debt.
很多人每天都在为生计挣扎,所以不妨退一步,为自己的成就感到骄傲,并记住,无论未来如何发展,都只会是比原本可能的情况好上一些的版本。
Many of them are struggling day to day to always try and take a step back and be proud of what you've done and remember that however it goes forward from here, they're just gonna be shades of of things being pretty okay compared to what it could be.
所以,我希望这些对你有帮助。
So, you know, I hope that was helpful.
是的。
Yeah.
所以,我想总结一下,我可能会直接靠现金生活。
So I suppose to summarize, I'd probably just live off the cash.
如果你有兴趣探索的话,也可以考虑做一些兼职工作。
Maybe look at some part time work if that's something that you're interested in exploring.
这可以成为你在国外时一个有趣的额外爱好或打发时间的方式。
That could be a fun little side hobby or way to spend your time while you're over there.
然后当你回来时,如果你决定要孩子,你就能更好地决定之后住在哪里,以及如何继续投资你的资金,还有那时你愿意承担多大的风险。
And then when you get back, if you choose to have kids, then you'll be able to better decide where you live from then on and then how you want to invest your money going forward and how much risk you're comfortable taking at that point as well.
这将帮助你覆盖其他那些你正在犹豫的方面。
That will help cover those other bases that you're trying to decide.
不过,是的,我会尽量保持简单,好好享受这段休息时光。
But yeah, I'll try and keep it pretty simple and just enjoy the time off.
最后,在这个案例研究中,我们在表格上会问人们:你最有价值的金钱或人生经验是什么?
And just on a final point on this case study, on the form, we actually ask people, what's been your most valuable money or life lesson?
他们的回答是:多把钱花在旅行和体验上,而不是物品上。
And so their answer was spend more money on travel and experiences, not on things.
有意思。
Interesting.
很有趣,对吧?
Interesting, isn't it?
这符合你的预期吗?
Is that what you'd expect?
有可能。
Possibly.
可能对这对夫妇来说是这样。
Possibly from this couple.
是的。
Yes.
可能吧。
Possibly.
那种说法还挺符合这个故事的。
That kind of that kind of fits the story.
我可以问一下,你觉得人们说的‘东西’指的是什么?
Can I ask, what what do you think people mean by things?
比如沙发?
Like a lounge?
是的。
Yeah.
沙发、衣服、电子产品、汽车、珠宝之类的。
Lounges, clothes, gadgets, cars, jewelry, maybe.
就是一些杂物吧,我想。
Just stuff, I guess.
家里的小摆设。
Trinkets for the house.
我不知道。
I don't know.
就是一些东西。
Just stuff.
因为,比如,这样说公平吗?我可以换种说法,但意思仍然成立:一个很好的金钱课是,多花钱在旅行和体验上,而不是在贬值或不增值的资产上?
Because, like, is it fair to say that, like, that could I rephrase that in a way that's still true if if it was, like, the a great value money lesson is spend more money on travel and experiences, not on depreciating or nonappreciating assets?
这有道理吗?
Does that makes any sense?
因为显然,你可以花钱买很多东西。
Like because obviously, there's lots of things you can spend money on.
比如,那些对你和你的未来有好处的东西。
Like, that are things that are, like, good for either, like, you and your future and stuff like that.
你知道,比如你买个泡沫轴来缓解背部不适,或者买些家用健康设备,或者买件厨房用具,让你更容易做健康饮食或备餐。
You know, like, maybe you buy a foam roller for your back or you buy, like, something to deal with your health at home or a piece of kitchen equipment that's gonna make it easier to cook healthy food or meal prep.
像这些你可以买的东西很多,但我觉得这些回答根本没提到这些,对吧?
Like, there's all these things that you can buy, but I feel like these answers aren't talking about those things, are they?
他们在说,别买那些不会
They're talking about, like, stop purchasing things that don't
不会为你的生活增添价值的东西。
Don't add value to your life.
是的。
Yeah.
我想是吧。
I guess
我想是的。
I guess so.
我不想过度解读那些汇总的评论,但至少,你知道,他们指的不是房子这样的东西。
I don't wanna read between the lines of an aggregated comment, but at least, you know, they don't mean things like a house.
他们指的不是那些能改善你生活的好东西。
They don't mean things like things that help you, you know, your life in a good way.
他们假设说的是像我客厅里那张沙发,我是在Facebook市场花100美元买的。
I'm they assume they're talking about like, I have a lounge in my living room that I got off, think, like Facebook marketplace for a $100.
这就像一个L形的沙发。
It's like an l shaped lounge.
如果我花两千美元买个新沙发,我觉得我并不会感觉更好。
And it's like, if I got a $2,000 new lounge that would be I don't think I'd feel any better.
我不认为这会改善我的生活,而且我会为一件东西花更多钱。
Don't think that would have improved my life, and I would have spent a lot more money on a thing.
不过你可能会享受那种高档沙发的体验。
You might enjoy the experience of that fancy lounge though.
没错,确实如此。
Well, it's true.
这和体验有关,对吧?
Ties into experiences, doesn't it?
没错。
That's true.
我想留给你和听众一个问题,我很想和大家就类似的话题聊聊。
I'll I will leave you with I will leave you and the listeners with a question, which I'd love to chat with people about on a similar topic.
但你会买二手床垫吗?这是我想问大家的问题。
But would you ever buy a secondhand mattress is the question to people.
如果你会买,那么购买二手床垫时会有什么条件吗?
And if you would, are there any conditions of purchasing said secondhand mattress?
我经常和别人聊这个话题,因为我太喜欢了。虽然我不喝酒,不去酒吧,但这简直就像酒吧里那种让人捧腹的闲聊,一个绝佳的开场话题,或者说一个能引发争论的导火索,你知道的,就是个引子。
It's I love I have that chat with people frequently just because it's it's a hilarious I don't go to the pub because I don't drink but it's like a hilarious like pub pub convo so to speak like just a conversation starter like a fight starter so to speak you know like just starter.
就用这种话题逗逗人,让大家热闹一阵子。
Just shit shit stir people for a while with things like that.
算了,改天再说吧。
Anyway, another time.
你有没有因为自己那充满激情的省钱行为,去故意挑起别人的争论呢?
Do do you ever shit stir people with your, shall we say, passionate savings antics?
然后别人会说:‘什么?’
And then people are like, what?
你刚才说什么?'
You did what?
我真不敢相信你竟然做了这种事。
I can't believe you did that.
而且你还……
And you're
是的。
like, yeah.
嗯,没错。
Well, yeah.
我其实不太想聊这个,但通常我都是这样做的:我会提醒别人我刚买了一张二手床垫,然后事情就会自然展开,因为这总能引发强烈的反应——比如别人第一反应总会说:‘我绝不会这么做。’
I didn't really I didn't really wanna go into that, but that's that's how I usually do it is I usually remind people that I just bought a secondhand mattress and just what should unfold from there because it's it creates quite a because you get the first response to someone, you know, I would never, You know?
然后另一个人会问:‘那你去住酒店吗?’
And then someone else is like, do you ever go to hotels?
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
你知道的?
You know?
而且就是,看着人们来回讨论这件事。
And and it just, like, it's just watching people go back and forth about it.
就像点火一样。
It's like it's like lighting a fire.
你知道的?
You know?
它总是
It's always
总是很好的娱乐。
always always good entertainment.
这很有趣。
It's interesting.
展开剩余字幕(还有 225 条)
我一个好朋友因为这个原因特别讨厌住酒店,就是得睡不是自己的床垫。
A good friend of mine actually despises going to hotels for that very reason, is having to use a different mattress, a mattress that's not his.
这很合理。
It's very reasonable.
接着说。
Go on.
我以前从来没听说过这个,觉得挺有意思的。
I'd never heard that before, so I found that to be quite interesting.
然后他给我看了一个视频,讲的是床垫里可能有什么东西之类的。
And then he showed me this video of, you know, like, what's what could be in the mattress and stuff.
所以还挺搞笑的。
So it was quite funny.
不是。
No.
是真的。
It's true.
我的意思是,我确实从中得出一个结论:如果你无法忍受睡二手床垫,那么当你认真考虑的话,睡在酒店或非家里的地方也会很难接受,戴夫,这其实是生活中的一种情况。
Like, I definitely I definitely kinda came away from it being like a secondhand if you if you can't stomach sleeping on a secondhand mattress, then it's probably difficult to stomach sleeping in like a hotel or somewhere that isn't home if you really think you know, it's one of those things in life, Dave.
你只需要别想太多。
You just have to not think about it too much.
当我那时候……我就不多说了。
Like, when I was I was I won't go into it again.
但确实如此。
But yeah.
但你这是在否认现实。
But then you just denying reality.
是的。
Yes.
有一段时间,我为了省钱,把房间租出去,自己睡在客厅里。
Like there was there was a period where I was I was air being being out my room, and I was sleeping on the lounge to make some money.
客厅是藏在角落里的。
The lounge was like tucked away.
那床并不在房间旁边,也不算奇怪,刚开始有一段时间,我很难把床每周租出去两三天,然后自己再睡上去。
It wasn't like next to the room or or weird like and there was like a period at the start where it was just it was very difficult to like rent my bed out to people two or three nights a week and then sleep in it.
你只能通过意识到自己根本不需要想太多,或者意识到生活中有更大的问题来克服这一点。
And you only really get around it by just realizing that you just just need to not think about it too much or you just need to just realize there's bigger problems in life.
我喜欢这句话。
I love that quote.
多花钱在旅行和体验上,而不是物质上。
Spend more money on travel and experiences, not on things.
我很想,是的,我确实这么想。
I'd love yeah, I do.
我希望能有一天更深入地梳理这些想法,以求完全清晰,但我相信大家其实都同意。
I would love to unpack things more one day just for for full clarity, but I'm sure everyone agrees anyway.
不过,也不是每个人都会有这种感受,我敢肯定,即使有这种感受的人,对这些事的含义也可能看法不一。
Well, not everyone isn't everyone who feels that way probably would agree on what things mean, I I'm sure.
因为我怀疑他们指的并不是房子。
Because I doubt they mean houses.
是的
Yeah.
我觉得没必要把这个问题搞复杂了,伙计
I I think no no need no need to complicate that one, mate,
我觉得。
I think.
我们来
Let's get
聊聊用ChatGPT进行投资吧。
on to investing with ChatGPT.
这个问题是:我正在模拟我们早期退休后的生活会是什么样子。
This question is: I'm trying to model what our early retirement would look like.
我有一个电子表格,可以模拟我们到90岁的退休生活。
I have a spreadsheet that models our retirement through to age 90.
真够认真的。
Very dedicated.
非常详细。
Very detailed.
在扣除通货膨胀后,大多数人通常使用多少回报率来模拟他们的退休账户?
What rate of return do most people typically use to model their retirement accounts after inflation?
我问了ChatGPT,它建议净实际回报率为每年2%到4%。
I asked ChatGPT and it suggested a net real rate of return of two to 4% per annum.
ChatGPT认为,如果你假设年毛回报率为5%到7%,平均通货膨胀率为2%到3%,这个范围对于退休模拟是合理的。
ChatGPT suggested this is a reasonable amount for retirement modelling if you assume a gross return of five to 7% per year and inflation of two to 3% on average.
你对这个有什么看法?
Any thoughts on this?
这感觉非常保守,但这并不是坏事。
It feels very conservative, which is not a bad thing.
谢谢。
Thanks.
海登,你有没有为你的投资策略和投资组合构建咨询过ChatGPT?
Have you ever consulted ChatGPT, Hayden, for your investing investing strategy and portfolio construction?
没有。
No.
但它有它的用途。
But it has its uses.
我的意思是,你知道,对于这些大语言模型和生成式AI,我相信我们的许多听众都了解,但只是为了那些使用过却没深入思考过的人,这里要提醒一下:ChatGPT 并不真正理解它提供给你的任何内容。
I mean, you know, I think with with these LLMs, generative AI stuff, number of our listeners I'm sure understand it, but just for those who kind of use it but don't haven't thought about it very deeply, like, the reminder here is like ChatGPT does not have an inherent understanding of anything it gives you.
它只是尽可能地整合所有信息。
It is simply trying to aggregate all of the information as best it can.
我的意思是,假设地球上每一个Reddit帖子上,有人提问,有人回答,ChatGPT会查看所有这些内容。
And what I mean by that is, know, if you say if you had everyone on the like every Reddit post on the planet, someone asks a question, someone responds to it, ChatGPT looks at all of that.
它会判断,根据我所看到的一切,对这类问题最合理的回应方式是什么。
It figures out, well, this seems to be the most reasonable way to respond to this kind of question based on everything I've seen.
所以,看待ChatGPT的方式是:它本质上是一个工具,就像在你身边创造了一个根本不了解世界的人,但他们能为你搜索十亿条信息。
So the way to think about ChatGPT is, like, ChatGPT is basically a tool that is, like, you create a person next to you who who really understands nothing about the world, but they're going to Google a billion things for you.
然后他们会把你曾经搜索过的一切都为你总结出来。
And they're just going to summarize everything they've ever googled for you.
他们会给你一个关于互联网的优质摘要。
And they will give you a good summary of the Internet.
所以这就像我们在学校学到的关于维基百科之类的东西,ChatGPT 是互联网的一个卓越摘要工具,而互联网本身是不完美的。
So it's just like what we learned in school and stuff about like, know, Wikipedia and stuff like ChatGPT is an exceptional summarization tool of the Internet, which is an imperfect thing.
我经常遇到这种情况。
And I I find this all the time.
这其实挺有意思,因为如果你明白自己想用它做什么,ChatGPT 就是个极好的工具,它能让你快速解决问题,而且你最后还能判断它给出的回答是否合理。
So it's it's it's a funny thing because ChatGPT is a great tool to use if you understand what you're trying to do with it because it it makes solving problems so quick, and you can verify at the end if you think it's being reasonable.
所以即使这个人说,2.2% 到 4% 这个数字显得非常保守。
So even that this person is saying the question, two point two to 4% feels very conservative.
这告诉我,这是一种使用 ChatGPT 的绝佳方式,因为你显然已经对这个话题有一定了解,只是想绕开花一小时去搜索信息。
That tells me that, like, that's a great way to use ChatGPT because you clearly understand enough about this already that you're just trying to, like, sidestep googling this for an hour.
你只是想让 ChatGPT 基于它的最佳判断,帮你快速获取人类知识的总结,所以这确实是个可用的工具,但你使用它时必须非常谨慎,尤其是对于你不理解的事情。我从不会用 ChatGPT 来处理我不懂的问题,比如我从不用它来诊断健康问题,除非我给出非常具体的提示,并花大量时间追问它、要求它解释细节。
You're just like ChatGPT, you go get me the summer human knowledge based on your best guess so yeah, it's a thing you can use you just have to be very careful using it for stuff you don't understand I would never use ChatGPT ironically for things I don't understand I've never used ChatGPT to like diagnose health problems unless I'm really specific with the prompts and I spend a lot of time asking it follow-up questions and asking it to explain things.
但对于我懂的事情,比如金融,我会快速问它一个问题,比如‘90年代到2000年代的典型房价是多少?’,因为我知道自己能很快辨别出它是否在胡说八道。
But for things I do understand like finance, I would shoot it a quick question and just be like, what is the typical house price 90 nineties to 2 thousands or something, you know, because I know that I could I could be a BS filter pretty quick.
但关于这个问题,戴夫。
But to to the question too, Dave.
是的。
Yeah.
当有人提到净实际回报率为2%到4%时,意思是……
Net real like, when someone says a net real return rate of two to 4%, does that mean yeah.
他们说的是扣除通胀后的数字。
They're saying that's gross inflation.
对。
Yeah.
这意味着在扣除通胀和可能的费用之后,也就是净收益。
That means after inflation and probably after fees as well, implying net.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是,我不觉得这算特别保守,但4%也并不算高。
I mean, I wouldn't say that's I mean, that's a little conservative, but, like, four is not it.
四的话,二有点保守,但四并不离谱。
Four is like, two is a bit conservative, but four is not wild.
我总是对通货膨胀感到困惑,因为至少我觉得这次情况不同。
I always I always struggle with inflation because at least I feel this this time around.
通货膨胀对每个人的影响其实差别很大,这也是我常跟别人强调的一点。
Inflation hits everyone really differently too, and that's a comment I try and make to people.
有些人生活开销中很少涉及那些价格飙升的资产,而有些人则不然。
Like, some people live lives where they don't consume a great deal of assets that experience inflated prices, and some people really do.
所以通货膨胀是个很难简单概括的东西,别动不动就说是百分之二到三。
So inflation is a really difficult thing, think to sometimes just slap on and be like, yeah, it's like two to 3%.
因为过去几年里,有些东西在澳大利亚涨了40%,而有些东西根本没涨。
Because some things have gone up 40% in the last few years in Australia, some things have not gone up.
但没错,扣除通胀后百分之二到四的回报率相当合理,甚至有点保守。
But yeah, two to 4% after inflation, pretty reasonable, a little conservative.
如果只是跟朋友闲聊一般收益不错的资产,我可能会说大概百分之五左右。
I'd probably say to someone five ish if I was just chatting to a friend about general decent returning assets.
是的
Yeah.
实际上,我很喜欢你对ChatGPT的那段总结。
It's a well, actually, I enjoyed your little summary there of ChatGPT.
我觉得这是一种相当不错的思考方式。
I think that's a pretty good way to think about it.
你说你不会在自己完全不理解的领域里完全信任地使用它,这真的非常有趣。
And it's very interesting you say that you wouldn't use it in a super trustworthy way for a topic that you don't really understand, which is quite fascinating really.
这就像人们在学习个人理财时想要找一位财务顾问,但当你学到一定程度时,却不确定什么样的财务顾问是好的,也不知道如何核实顾问提供的建议是否靠谱。
It's almost like when people are learning about personal finance and they want a financial advisor, but by the time you've learned and they're not sure what a good financial advisor is or what they know or how to fact check whether that advisor is giving good advice.
这正是学习理财时,财务顾问所面临的固有挑战。
That's the inherent challenge with financial advisors and when you're learning about finance.
但当你已经具备足够的个人知识,能够判断顾问给出的建议是否靠谱时,大多数情况下,你其实已经不再需要顾问了。
But by the time you've got to the point where you have enough personal knowledge to figure out whether the advisor is giving you good advice, that's precisely the point when you don't really need the advisor anymore in most cases.
这几乎像是一个鸡生蛋、蛋生鸡的问题,不过这是个次要话题,我们暂且不提。
It's like a chicken and egg thing almost, but that's kind of a side issue, we'll say.
但在投资回报和退休预测方面,我不确定这个人现在多大年纪,但自1900年以来,从全球市场的长期股票回报来看,经通胀调整后的平均年回报率约为5%。
But on the investment returns thing and retirement modelling, I would say I'm not sure how old this person is now, but for very long term share market returns, since 1900, if you look at after inflation real return from global markets, the average is about 5% per year.
这是将所有国家的数据汇总后的结果。
That's a culmination of every country put together.
这是自1900年以来全球的平均值,经通胀调整后为5%。
That's the world global average since 1900, 5% after inflation.
期间通胀率可能有2%、7%等各种波动。
Would be periods where inflation is 2%, 7% and all the rest of it.
这只是平均值。
That's the average.
根据这一点,你可能会认为,5%已经相当合理了。
Going by that, you might assume, Well, 5% is pretty reasonable then.
这确实有可能。
And it could be.
但这也要看个人情况和具体投资组合,因为这个数字假设的是完全投资于股票的组合。
But it also depends on the person and their personal portfolio because that assumes a fully invested stock portfolio.
但很多人,尤其是进入退休后,会变得更为保守,把大量资金投入到现金、债券等资产中,以应对市场周期。
But a lot of people, especially when they move into retirement, start to become a bit more conservative and have a lot more money tied up in things like cash or bonds and different things to see themselves through the market cycles.
虽然这样做是合理的,确实能帮助你在市场下跌时避免被迫卖出,但这会降低你的长期回报预期,因为你的资金不再完全投入市场。
While that's a reasonable thing to do and that does help you avoid selling when the market's down and all the rest of it, it does lower your long term return expectations because your money is no longer fully invested.
那么你可以开始下调你的预期回报率。
Then you could start ratcheting down what you expect.
所以,也许不再以5%作为合理的长期平均回报,而是考虑4%左右。
So maybe instead of 5% as a good long term average, maybe you work on something like 4%.
但如果你是一个非常保守、非常谨慎的人,担心事情出错,那也许你可以采用更低一点的数字。
But then maybe you're a very conservative and very cautious person who's of afraid of things going wrong, so maybe you work on a slightly lower number.
我认为2%简直是荒谬的。
I do think 2% is kind of insane.
我觉得这非常、非常恐惧。
I think that is very, very fearful.
尽管这可能对你有帮助,但也意味着你需要50倍的年支出作为投资,而不是25倍。
And although it might help you, it also means you're going to need 50 times your annual expenses in investments rather than 25 times.
因此,这会导致实现财务自由所需的时间大大延长。
So that comes at a cost of taking a lot longer to achieve and actually have freedom.
所以这也是需要考虑的因素。
So there's that to consider as well.
总的来说,我认为4%仍然是一个相当不错的起点。
In general, I would say 4% is still a pretty decent starting point.
然后你可以根据自身情况向上或向下调整。
And then you can tweak it upwards or downwards depending on your situation.
如果你的财务状况有一定缓冲,比如有养老金但你尚未将其计入计划,有些我认识的人就不把养老金当作后备方案,或者你可能有养老金作为 fallback,当投资组合跌到某一水平时愿意动用。
If you have some cushion in your situation, if there's super in there that you haven't really accounted for, some people I know don't account for their super as a backup plan, Or there's the pension that you might want to fall back on or are willing to use if your portfolio goes down to a certain level.
或者如果你的个人开支有较大灵活性,那你的状况显然会更稳健。
Or if you have a good amount of flexibility in your personal spending, then obviously that's a stronger situation again.
所以,你可以加入很多因素来优化规划。
So, there's a lot of things you can build in.
实际上,我在我的书中详细讨论过这些内容,以远超平均水平的方式保障你的财务安全,而不是单纯依赖市场回报,被市场波动牵着鼻子走。
And I wrote a lot about this in my book actually, to secure your situation far more than the average and just relying on pure market returns and being thrown around by someone who's in a rip or something like that.
所以,这就是我对这个问题的看法。
So, that's what I would say for that.
对于那些有其他资源可以调动、在退休规划中能做其他调整的人来说,4%到5%完全合适。
I would say 4% to 5% perfectly fine for someone who's got other strands that they can pull and and other tweaks that they can make in that kind of a that kind of a retirement situation.
这很有道理。
That makes sense.
我们接着看下一个问题,戴夫。
Let's jump on to the next question, Dave.
嗨,戴夫和海登。
Hi, Dave and Hayden.
我刚开始听你们的播客,我的经历和戴夫完全一样——从维多利亚州搬到珀斯时,账户里不到1000美元。
I've just started listening to your podcast and have an identical story to Dave in coming from Victoria to Perth with less than $1,000 in my account.
目前我做临时工作,税前每周收入约4000美元。
Currently working casually for around $4,000 a week before tax.
这是一笔不少的钱。
It's a good amount of money.
这数额巨大。
It's massive.
每年大约有20万美元。
It's about $200,000 a year.
我想要么买一套自住房,要么买一套投资房继续租房住。
I would like to either buy a house to live in or buy an investment property and continue to rent.
但我还不确定应该准备多少首付。
But I'm not sure how much of a deposit I should aim for.
我目前没有房产或股票,也没有债务。
I do not own any property or shares, and I have no debt.
我是一名23岁的单身男性。
I'm a 23 year old single male.
无论是否能得到回复,我都会继续收听和学习。
Whether or not I hear back, I will continue to listen and learn.
谢谢你们提供如此简洁优质的内容。
And thank you for your simple quality content.
最后一句话真的很暖心。
That was very sweet that last line.
毫无疑问,戴夫马上就会为你感到骄傲,因为听起来你差不多一天就能把净资产翻倍。
Well, Dave's about to be very proud of you, no doubt, because you're gonna double your net worth in about one business day, it sounds like.
你什么意思?
What do you mean?
每周四千块。
Well, 4,000 a week.
差不多就是几天的事。
Be like it, you know, couple days.
如果他手头不到一千块的话
If he's got less than 1,000
一千块。
1,000.
哦,那是他刚搬到珀斯的时候。
Oh, that was when he first moved to Perth.
当然。
Sure.
好的。
Okay.
我以为他刚搬到珀斯时只有一千块。
I thought it was like he's just moved to Perth with a thousand.
但即便如此,这仍然是一个相当不错的财富增长率,我们这么说吧。
But still, that's that's still that's a pretty good wealth growth rate, we'll say.
是的。
Yeah.
绝对如此。
Absolutely.
出于好奇,海登,你买公寓时用了多少首付?
Just out of curiosity, when you bought your apartment Hayden, how much deposit did you use to buy
呢?
it?
20%,就像是的。
20%, like a Yeah.
不错。
Nice.
我其实没有。
I actually don't.
我还没怎么跟别人聊过他们的首付。
I haven't talked to a lot of people about their deposits.
我猜这答案可能挺无聊的。
I assume that's a pretty boring answer.
不就是20%吗?或者大多数人可能是5%到10%?
Isn't it just 20% or probably like five to 10 for most people?
是的。
It is.
对。
Yeah.
尤其是当你刚开始的时候。
Especially if you're starting.
显然,对于刚起步的人来说,更低的比例会更合适。
Obviously, lower will be more suitable for people who are just starting.
我看到很多人推荐说,你需要20%,你需要20%。
I see a lot that people recommend You need 20%, you need 20%.
我认为这种说法源自巴里富特。
And I think this comes from Barefoot.
我认为巴里富特是20%首付的坚定支持者,他认为这有助于培养储蓄习惯,并让你达到一种状态——他说,如果你能存下20%的首付,就证明你足够理智和谨慎,能够在未来三十年左右的时间里妥善管理你的房贷。
I think Barefoot is someone who's a big proponent of 20% deposits as a way to reinforce your savings habit and build yourself to the point where you're I think he basically says, If you can save a 20% deposit, you qualify yourself as sensible and prudent enough to then manage your mortgage for the next thirty years or whatever it is.
我认为这就是背后的理念。
I think that's the philosophy behind it.
然后你通过这种方式证明自己具备财务能力。
And then you prove yourself financially capable in that way.
但我理解这个理念,但在实践中我不认同,因为对你所居住的地方来说,20%的首付往往是一笔相当大的钱。
But I get the philosophy, but I disagree with it in practice because what tends to happen is a 20% deposit where you live can be quite a lot of money.
如果你没有存下巨额资金,这可能需要相当长的时间才能实现。
And if you're not saving massive amounts, that can take quite a long time to achieve.
我确实认为,选择5%的首付更合理,如果不会花上好几年的话,10%的首付也可以考虑。
I do actually think it makes more sense to go with a 5% deposit, maybe a 10% deposit if that's not going to take years and years and years.
因为与此同时,你还在存钱,而房地产市场并不会停滞不前等你。
Because in the meantime, you're saving, the property market is not just staying stagnant waiting for you.
房地产市场就像股票市场,我们预期价格会随着时间上涨。
The property market is like the share market where we can expect prices to go up over time.
你可能会在贷款保险上省下一些钱,并且在整个贷款期内支付的利息也可能更低。
You might save some money on lender's mortgage insurance and you might have a lower level of interest that you pay over the life of your loan.
但请记住,如果你多花一两年时间攒够首付,你很可能需要为房产支付更高的价格。
But then remember, you're also most likely going to have to pay a higher price for that property if it's going to take you an extra one, two, three years to save that deposit.
所以你可能会省下贷款保险费,这笔费用可能是一万到一万五千美元左右,而大多数情况下这笔费用可以加到你的贷款里。
So you might actually save yourself paying LMI, which may be 10,015 thousand dollars or something like that, which you can add to your loan in most cases.
但如果你真的支付了这笔保险费,反而可能帮你避免多花三万到五万美元购房,因为如果你为了攒更多首付而推迟购房,市场在这多出来的几年里可能已经上涨了五万到十万,甚至十万以上。
Then if you actually pay that, it might actually save you from having to spend an extra 30,000 or $50,000 to buy the property at the time because if it's a delayed purchase because you're getting that bigger deposit, it might end up costing you an extra 50,070 thousand or $100,000 because the market has moved over those extra years that you it's taken you to save.
所以我会 definitely 记住这一点,通常会选择较小的首付而不是较大的首付。
So I would definitely keep that in mind, and I would generally go for a smaller deposit over a bigger deposit.
你觉得呢,老兄?
What do you reckon, mate?
我只是算算数字。
I just do the numbers.
我买的时候其实没算过。
I I don't think I did them when I bought.
因为我对支付LMI溢价这件事感到原则上的不满。
Cause I don't I think I took a principled frustration with the idea of paying a premium for, you know, the LMI.
在绝大多数情况下,根据增长率来看,早点进入房产市场可能更有意义。
If you do the numbers in almost every case, depending on the growth rate, it's probably gonna make sense to get into the property sooner.
是的。
Yeah.
实际上,这确实没错,因为我想这里有个区别。
Actually, that's true actually, because I guess there's the distinction.
对吧?
Right?
因为我想我当时有20%的首付,你知道的。
Because I guess I had the 20% deposit, you know.
所以是的。
So Yeah.
当你有20%的时候。
When you have the 20 yeah.
回到你刚才说的那方面。
Back to kind of what you're talking about.
所以如果你有20%的首付,那么少付钱可能只是个损失。
So if you have the 20% deposit, then paying less is just a penalty probably.
而如果你连首付都没有,等待反而比支付LMI的费用更糟糕。
Whereas if you don't even have the deposit waiting is worse than than the LMI penalty.
大多数情况下,大概的数据应该会这么显示,我想。
Most of the time would be that's probably what the ballpark numbers would say, I imagine.
是的。
Yeah.
我也这么认为。
I think so.
而且针对我们听众的具体情况,他既考虑自住的房子,也考虑用于出租的投资房产。
And I suppose just to our specific listeners' situation, he is open to either a house to live in or an investment property to rent out.
所以在这种情况下,你可以购买一套用于出租的投资房产。
So I guess in that situation, you can buy an investment property to rent out.
如果你非常喜欢租房,不想亲自居住在自己的房子里,也不愿意承担那些开支和维护房屋的麻烦。
If you're in a position where you really like renting and you don't want to actually live in your own house and have to pay for those expenses yourself or maintain have the house yourself and all the rest of it.
我会考虑这一点。
I consider that.
但话虽如此,无论你的收入如何,首次购房者都能享受到一些独特的好处。
But having said that, there are pretty unique benefits for first home buyers regardless of your income.
在西澳大利亚州,首次购房者购买新房可以享受首次购房者补助,同时还能获得印花税减免,这能为你节省不少钱。
In WA, there's first homeowner grant on new homes and then there's also stamp duty concessions, which can save you a fair bit of money.
总计可能是25300美元,这绝对值得考虑。
In total, it could be something like $25.30 grand, That could be definitely something worth looking into.
而且你不必永远住在那里。
And then you don't have to live in it forever.
你可以承诺租住六个月或十二个月,或者根据规定的时间,然后再重新评估。
You could commit to six or twelve months or whatever the rules are and then reassess.
如果你不想再住在那里,可以搬出来,那时如果喜欢租房的生活方式或好处,就可以把它转为投资房产。
And if you don't want to live in it anymore, you can move out and turn it into an investment property at that point if you actually like the lifestyle or the the benefits of renting.
所以,这就是我的建议。
So that's what I would say.
好了,今天我们就聊到这里。
Well, that's all we got time for today.
更准确地说,今天我们就讨论这些问题。
Well, more specifically, that's the questions we're gonna go through today.
希望你们觉得这些案例研究和问答环节很有趣。
I hope you found the case studies and q and a interesting.
继续提出问题吧。
Keep the questions coming through.
我们会尽力回答你们的问题。
We'll do our best to get to them.
另外,请记住,如果你们的问题没有在播客中被提到,也别觉得被忽视了,尤其是对常听的听众来说。
You know, please remember too that don't feel too disenfranchised if your questions don't come up in the podcast for regular listeners.
顺便说一下,我们通常不会分享这个信息,但我和戴夫现在正坐在2025年3月24日星期一的这里。
For context, we don't normally share it, but Dave and I are sitting here right now on Monday, March 24.
其实我也不知道这期节目什么时候发布,但确实会有一点延迟。
Well, I don't even know when this gets released, but, like, they it it has a bit of a delay in it too.
所以如果你提交了问题,几个月后才出现在正式发布的播客里,这并不奇怪,因为我们录制的节奏并不总是固定的。
So if you put your question through, it was it's not unreasonable that it might take months for it to trickle into the actual podcast release, and we don't always record these at the same, you know, cadence and things like that.
请记住这一点。
So keep that in mind.
但如果你有问题想交流,可以发送邮件至 hello@AussieFIREpod.com,或者通过社交媒体联系戴夫(Strong Money Australia)或我(Pearler)。
But if you do have questions and you wanna kinda reach out, you can email those to hello@AussieFIREpod.com, or you can reach out to Dave at Strong Money Australia on socials or myself at Pearler.
关于提问或分享你的案例背景,还有一个小建议。
One quick point as well about asking a question or sharing your kind of case study background.
如果你真的希望得到好的回答,尽量提供一些额外的细节。
Always try and provide little extra details if you can, if you are really looking for some good answers.
一个好的例子是,今天这位听众,我们其实并不知道他住在哪个城市。
Good example, if you listen to today was, you know, we don't really know what city this person lives in.
这会产生重大影响。
That has a significant impact.
而且,房贷的金额确实也很重要,尤其是考虑到这些情况大多是匿名的。
And like the size of the mortgage does does make a difference too, particularly given that these kinds of things are somewhat anonymous.
比如,如果今天这位听众告诉我们,他有一百万澳元的抵扣余额,这可能也会对回答产生一些影响。
Like for instance, if the person today told us that they had a million dollars in offset that possibly would have influenced the answer a little bit as well.
所以,随时欢迎补充更多细节。
So always feel free to throw in extra little details.
如果我们觉得信息过多,也完全可以删减。
We can always edit them out if if we do think it's kinda overkill anyway.
但更多信息总是好的,尤其是对于这些目前全部都是匿名的案例。
But more information is always good, particularly with the anonymous ones, which all of these so far have been.
如果你喜欢这个节目,请留下五颗星评价,或者分享给可能从中受益的朋友。
If you are enjoying the show, please leave a five star review or share it with a friend who might get value for it.
如果你不喜欢这个节目,请在社交媒体或通过邮件告诉我们原因。
And if you're not loving the show, please drop us a line on socials or email and tell us why not.
归根结底,我们是为听众服务的,所以我们会一直尽力做到最好。
At the end of the day, we're here for our listeners, so we'll always try and do our best.
告诉我们海登哪里让你烦,我们来帮你解决。
Tell us why Hayden is annoying you, and we'll we'll fix it up.
我来收拾他。
I'll sort him out.
那太好了。
That'll be good.
谢谢大家。
Thanks, everyone.
好的。
Alright.
谢谢收听,各位。
Thanks for listening, guys.
我们下次再会。
We'll catch you next time.
希望你们喜欢这期《澳洲财务自由》节目。
We hope you enjoyed this episode of Aussie FIRE.
如需更多财务自由的灵感,请访问 perler.com,浏览我们的资源、计算器和社区见解。
For more FI inspiration, head to perler.com to browse our resources, calculators, and community insights.
Pearler 是 Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd 的授权代表,编号为 1281540,AFSL 编号为 337927。
Pearler is an Authorised Representative, number 1281540 of Sanlam Private Wealth Pty Ltd with AFSL number 337927.
知识就是力量,尤其是在投资时,因此在做出决定前,请务必寻求专业建议,或查阅任何金融产品的相关披露文件,包括产品说明书(PDS)和产品披露声明(TMD)。
Knowledge is power, especially when investing, so always seek advice and or check out the relevant disclosure document for any financial product, including the PDS and TMD before deciding.
这些文件可从产品发行方的网站获取。
These are available from the product issuer's website.
投资时,您的本金面临风险,过往表现并非未来投资回报的可靠指标。
When you invest, your capital is at risk and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future investment returns.
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