60. FI案例研究：安迪该买第4套房产，还是投资ETF进行多元化？

我最近想得更多了，对我来说更重要的是最终目标。

I've been doing a lot more thinking and really what's more important to me is that end goal.

最终目标是建立稳定的现金流，因为这能让我实现财务自由，并按照自己的意愿规划职业生涯和生活。

The end goal is to have that solid cash flow in place because that then enables me to reach FIRE and do what I want to do with my career and with my life as well.

所以，通往目标的手段或方式并不重要。

So it doesn't matter what the means is or what the vehicle is to get there.

更重要的是如何达成目标，而不是比如持有一定数量的房产。

It's more how to get there versus, say, holding a set number of property.

我之所以提到房产，是因为当我刚开始房产之旅时，原本设想的就是在投资组合中积累一定数量的房产，然后进行整合、逐步还清贷款，最终获得稳定的现金流。

I only suggested property because that was what I had originally envisaged when I started the property journey, which was you build x number of properties in your portfolio, and then you consolidate, you pay them down, and then you got a consistent cash flow afterwards.

《澳大利亚财务自由播客》是Strong Money Australia与Pearler的合作项目，Pearler是澳大利亚最受欢迎的枯燥型长期投资平台。

The Aussie FIRE podcast is a collaboration between Strong Money Australia and Pearler, Australia's favorite boring long term investing platform.

欢迎收听我们的主持人——来自Strong Money Australia的Dave和来自Pearler的Hayden，他们将畅谈所有关于财务自由的话题。

Join our hosts, Dave from Strong Money Australia and Hayden from Pearler as they discuss all things financial independence.

在《澳大利亚财务自由》节目中，我们非常推崇分享经验与讨论金钱话题。

At Aussie FIRE, we're big fans of sharing experiences and talking about money.

但请注意，任何建议均为一般性意见，并未考虑您的财务状况、需求或目标。

However, please note that any advice is general and does not consider your financial situation, needs or objectives.

请自行判断这是否适合您，如有疑问，请咨询持牌财务顾问。

Consider whether it's appropriate for you and if in doubt speak to a licensed financial advisor.

大家好，欢迎回到Aussie FIRE播客。

Hey everyone, welcome back to the Aussie FIRE pod.

今天我们为大家准备了一期非常精彩的节目。

We've got a really exciting episode for everyone today.

这又是一期案例研究，我们邀请了一位听众加入，他稍后会自我介绍，分享一些关于他的背景和故事，并与戴夫和我进行一些讨论。

It's another case study, and we're actually joined by one of our listeners who will introduce in a moment who's gonna share a little bit about their background and story and have a little bit of a discussion with Dave and myself.

如果您一直收听这些案例研究节目，可能会熟悉我们在这类节目开头常做的免责声明，这很重要，因为我们正在与真实的人讨论他们真实的情况。

If you've been tuning into these case study episodes for a while, you might be familiar with some of the disclaimers that we've started to do at the beginning of them, which is just important because we are talking to literal people about their literal circumstances.

因此，对于今天加入我们的听众安迪，以及正在收听的各位听众来说，理解我们在这档播客中讨论的所有内容都是在一般性建议的框架下进行的，这一点非常重要。

So it's important for both our listener who's joined us today, Andy, as well as our listeners who are tuning in to understand that everything we discuss in this podcast is done so under a general advice license.

这意味着，我们分享和讨论的所有内容都不会考虑个人的具体情况、处境或需求，我们会尽可能以一般性的方式提供回答。

What that means is that everything we share and say doesn't take into account people's personal circumstances, situations or needs, and we will be providing answers in a general way where possible.

简而言之，尽管我们在这档播客中可能只和某人进行十分钟的对话，或者你们只是在收听，但归根结底，我们对你们自身或你们的情况几乎一无所知，因此，如果你们将来要做任何重大的人生财务决策，咨询像财务顾问这样的可信赖专业人士至关重要。

The short story is whilst we might have a ten minute conversation with someone on this podcast, or you might be listening to it, at the end of the day, we know nearly nothing about yourself or your circumstances, and therefore it's really important to consult a trusted professional such as a financial advisor or equivalent if you are ever going to be making large financial decisions with your life.

但无论如何，我们会尽力提供最好的建议。

But regardless, we'll try and contribute best where we can.

为了开始，我们先介绍一下安迪。

And to start that, let's introduce Andy.

嘿，安迪。

Hey, Andy.

你最近怎么样？

How are you going?

嘿，海登。

Hey, Hayden.

很高兴认识你。

Nice nice to meet you.

谢谢你们今天邀请我来。

Thanks for having me here today.

这很好。

That's all good.

很高兴你来这里。

Lovely to have you here.

我想我们直接开始吧。

I think we'll just jump straight in.

你能先给听众简单介绍一下自己、你的状况，或者任何其他相关信息吗？然后再聊聊你最近的财务生活情况？

Do you just wanna tell the listeners a little bit about yourself, your circumstances, or anything else like that before we have a little chat about how everything's going in the financial life of Andy these days?

是的。

Yeah.

当然可以。

Sure thing.

我今年34岁，单身，一生都住在澳大利亚。

So I'm 34 years old, single, been in Australia all my life.

我的投资之旅大概是从新冠疫情开始的，那时候大家都被困在家里，我对投资产生了一点兴趣。

My investment journey has been probably started around COVID when everyone was stuck at home, got a bit curious about investing.

在过去的四五年里，我选择了房产投资这条路，这是许多澳大利亚人的常见选择。

And over the course of, say, the last four or five years, I went down the property route, which is what many Australians do.

我得说，我在这件事上运气不错。

And I've got to say I've been quite lucky with that.

所以我一直在做这件事，但目前我在财务自由与提前退休（FIRE）的道路上到了一个十字路口，不确定接下来该怎么做。

So been doing that, and I'm at a bit of a crossroads at the moment in terms of what I do next in terms of continuing my with my FIRE journey.

让我详细说说我在房产投资方面的现状。

So a bit of detail in terms of where I'm at with with that particular property investing journey.

我目前拥有三套房产。

So I've got three properties.

它们都位于昆士兰州。

All of them are in Queensland.

这些房产的表现非常出色。

They've done exceptionally well.

在过去几年里，我还得到了房产买家代理的帮助。

I had the help of a buyer's agent support me in that as well over the last couple of years.

从纯粹的数字角度来看，我目前的贷款金额约为150万美元。

So from a pure numbers perspective, the loan amount that I have is about 1,500,000.

截至今天，整个投资组合的价值约为203万美元。

Total portfolio value as of today is about 2 0.3.

因此，总体净资产大约为717万，我计算过，如果我现在套现，扣除税费、资本利得税以及中介费用等所有成本后，净收益大约为630万美元左右。

So overall equity of about 7 if we run it up 717, what I've calculated is after tax, if I were to cash out today, after tax, after CDT and whatnot, and after agents agents fees, the net equity after all those costs would be about $6.30 thereabouts.

除此之外，我也一直少量投资于ETF和Pearler。

In addition to that, I've been dabbling with ETFs and Pearler a little bit as well.

因此，整个投资组合的价值约为35,000美元，规模较小，配置比例为30%。

So overall portfolio value of about 35 k is quite small with a mix of 30%.

大约三分之一是VCT，另外三分之二是VGS。

So about one third does one and two thirds VGS.

我目前的情况是，存下了相当可观的一笔钱。

Where I'm at at the moment is I've been saving quite a fair bit.

我的生活方式一直比较节俭。

So my lifestyle was fairly frugal.

所以我存了不少钱。

So I've saved a fair bit in terms of savings.

如果我把储蓄凑到大约20万，接下来我想决定：我是继续走房产之路，利用高杠杆继续乘势而上？

What about if I rounded up about 200 k in savings and what I wanna do next is I wanna decide, well, do I continue on the property journey where I get great leverage and can continue to ride that wave?

还是把这笔钱投入到扩大股票投资组合中？

Or do I look at putting that towards growing a share portfolio as well?

我当初选择房产的一个原因，是因为可以获得很高的杠杆。

And one of the reasons why I moved into property was because you get really good leverage.

所以我把一部分钱存起来，以控制更大价值的资产，并期待长期获得回报。

So I'm putting some money aside to control a much larger value, and I'm seeing that payoff over the long term.

但当我开始考虑现金流时，我发现我的房产是负现金流的。

But as I start looking at cash flow as well, so I am negatively geared.

税前我的现金流大约是负2万，也就是每年亏2万。

So before tax, my cash flow is is about 20 k, so minus 20 k per annum.

税后算下来，我每年大约要自掏腰包1万1左右。

After tax ends up being about 11 k thereabouts that I'm out of pocket by.

如果我再入手一套房产，那肯定还是会负现金流。

And if I were to pick up another property, it guaranteed it would be negatively geared.

这会进一步增加我的负现金流压力。

So that would add to that cap that negative cash flow.

但我现在只是在思考，我是继续走这条路，再坚持一段时间，乘着这波趋势前行，然后考虑如何多元化，逐步转向ETF投资组合？

But I'm kinda just working on, well, do I continue on that journey and kinda just live with it for a little bit longer and ride that wave onto where then look at, well, how do I diversify and move move towards an ETF portfolio?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这种情况挺有意思的。

It's a pretty interesting situation, I would say.

你可能不是唯一一个有类似经历的人。

You're probably not the only person who is who's probably had a similar journey.

你可能是在疫情期间开始投资，或者从那时起对投资产生兴趣，利用当时极低的利率借款并加杠杆，从而获得收益，而到今天为止，大多数地区在过去五年左右都经历了相当可观的增长。

Started investing around COVID or got interested investing since COVID and took advantage of potentially those very low interest rates to then borrow and use leverage to get the benefits of doing that and would've seen in most states some pretty decent growth over the last five years or so as we chat today.

希望这个案例能对许多正在聆听的人产生共鸣和实际参考价值。

Hopefully this case study will actually be interesting and apply to many other people who are listening.

但如果我们来看一下你的情况，决定下一步该怎么做取决于许多不同的因素。

But if we I suppose if we look at your specific situation, the way to determine what's going to be the right move is based on a lot of different factors.

你可能会想再加码，但如果你买第四套房产，那简直是在四倍加码。

You could potentially I was going to say double down, but it's more like four quadrupling down if you were to buy a fourth property.

这可能会带来回报。

And that could potentially pay off.

但我想知道你希望在多长时间内达成什么目标。

But I suppose I would like to know where you're trying to get to in what sort of a time frame.

因为时间框架本身，以及你具体想实现的目标——无论是某个日期前达到一定的净资产，还是获得一定数额的被动收入，等等。

Because the time frame itself and what you're specifically trying to achieve, whether it's a certain net worth goal by a certain date or it's a certain amount of passive income or something like that.

还有你对未来五到十年生活方式或目标的设想，这些都有助于你决定哪条路径最适合你。

And how you see your kind of lifestyle potentially or your your goals over the next five or ten years because that can potentially help help you decide which angle or which avenue might be the best one to go down.

是的。

Yeah.

如果我看看我的最终目标，我当然希望提前退休，我计算过，我真正想要的是每年10万美元的被动收入。

If I if I look at my end goal, I I'd like to retire early, of course, and I've calculated what I really want is a 100 k in passive income per annum.

很高兴靠这笔收入生活。

Happy to live off that.

所以如果我看一下投资组合，我认为需要大约150万到160万美元，以7%的回报率才能达到那样的目标。

So if I look at a shared portfolio, think you need about, like, 1.5, 1,600,000 with a 7% return to get anywhere like that.

所以我设定的目标是在未来十年内实现每年10万美元的被动收入。

So I'd said 100 k passive income in the next ten years.

我现在34岁。

I'm 34 now.

所以假设到44或45岁的时候能够实现这个目标。

So say that's a 45, 44, 45, being able to reach that.

这让我能够从事自己真正想做的行业，比如为慈善机构做咨询，我知道这会导致收入有所减少。

That then allows me to work in an industry that I really want to, being able to consult to a charity, for example, which I know that will take that will bring a bit of an income hit as well.

但这最终是我想要达到的方向。

But that's ultimately where I wanna go to.

我不是完全退休不工作，而是希望为慈善事业工作，这正是我希望未来人生走向的方向。

It's not completely retire from work, but being able to work for a charity, for a charitable cause, that's where I'd like to take my life towards in the future.

所以这个10万美元的目标，意思是到那时你就完全不用工作了吗？

And so is that like, is that 100 k goal the idea behind that is so that at that point, you wouldn't have to work at all?

我知道你可能想转去做收入较低的工作，但你的想法是，这笔钱能覆盖你所有的开销，这样工作就变成额外的收获了？

Like, I I know you're potentially wanting to move to lower paid work, but would that would the idea be to have this bucket of money cover all your expenses so then the work is a bonus at that point?

是的。

Yeah.

完全正确。

That's completely right.

完全正确。

That's completely right.

这10万美元能覆盖我大部分的生活开销，而任何额外的收入都将是非常好的补充。

That 100 k would cover most of my lifestyle and then anything that I get on top of that would be a real bonus.

明白。

Sure.

好的。

Okay.

所以，是的，以十年的时间框架来看，这是一个相当不错的可操作周期，因此使用杠杆是合理的，你已经拥有相当多的杠杆了。

So, yeah, with a with a ten year time frame, that is a fairly decent time frame to work with, so to the point where leverage can make sense, you've already got quite a bit of leverage already.

所以这可能会对你有利。

So it could potentially work out in your favor.

我们再回到目标本身，也就是每年10万美元，这是一个非常理想、整齐的数字目标。

Just to circle back on the goal itself, like the 100 k per annum, it's a nice juicy round number to to work towards.

但你可能需要的不是170万，而是大约250万左右。

But you're probably gonna need more like 2 and a half million rather than 1.7 or whatever.

因为7%的回报率，并不意味着你能从这些投资中获得7%的现金流。

Because that 7% returns, you're not gonna get 7% cash flow, like, cash flow from those investments.

你每年可能会获得这样的回报，但我假设你可能想把全部回报都取出来，但这样一来，就无法为通货膨胀等因素留出增长空间。

You'll get that sort of a return potentially each year, but I'm assuming you you probably you I mean, you could technically try and cash out all of that return, but then that doesn't leave growth for, like, inflation and stuff over time.

所以，这本质上会变得不可持续。

So it becomes less sustainable, essentially.

因此，我的理解是，目标更接近250万净资产。

So the goal is, I I suppose, more like 2 and a half million net.

所以，如果我们看看你现在的状况，我记得你说大约是770万美元

And so if we look at where you are now, which was I think you said around $7.70

在房产权益方面。

In equity.

是的。

Yeah.

在房产的权益方面。

Of equity in the properties.

对。

Yeah.

然后你当时有大约200万美元现金。

And then where it was 200 ish of cash.

对吗？

Is that right?

所以我们已经接近1100万美元了。

So we're approaching, like, $11,000,000 already.

那你是怎么看养老金的呢？

And is there is how do you see super as well?

那部分也包括在内吗？还是不涉及养老金？

Is that part of it or is there no super involved?

或者

Or

养老金是额外的。

Super is on top of that.

所以我的养老金余额，我想大概是180万美元左右。

So my current super balance, I think, is about if I ended up about $1.80.

是的。

Yep.

好的。

Okay.

你做得不错啊，兄弟。

So you're doing pretty good, man.

对于一个三十出头的人来说，你的状况非常好。

You're in a really good spot for someone in the early mid thirties.

是的。

Yeah.

不过我得说，这背后也付出了很多牺牲。

It's I must say though, it's been it's been a lot of sacrifice as well though.

所以我的生活方式多年来并没有太大的改变。

So things like so my lifestyle hasn't changed all that much over the years.

也许我只是偶尔买点品牌商品，比如品牌罐头豆子而不是廉价款，还有就是在家多住了几年。

Maybe I'm up by the branded stuff here and there, like the branded baked beans versus the no frills one, and things like living at home for longer as well.

所以我确实计划搬出去住。

So I I do plan on moving out.

我未来确实打算拥有自己的房子之类的。

I do plan on having my own place in the future and whatnot.

但目前来说，为了达到我现在这样的状态，我付出了不少牺牲，主要是多住了几年家，没有买那辆我可能想要的炫酷汽车。

But for the time being, to get to where I am at the moment, that has required a fair bit of sacrifice, and that is living at home for longer, not buying that nice flashy car that I may have wanted.

但我想这大概就是我心中的最终目标。

But I'd say that's about the end goal in mind.

海登，当他提到高端罐头豆时，我看到你笑了。

Hayden, I saw you smile when he said about the premium baked beans.

你想插一句吗？你有什么评论吗？

Do wanna jump do you have a comment

关于这个？

on that?

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

我的意思是，我觉得真正棒的是，像你这样的安迪这样的人，让这么多澳大利亚人把自己置于如此良好的境地。

I mean, I actually think it's I mean, what's really nice about talking to people like yourself, Andy, is that there's so many Australians out there that have just put themselves in such a great situation.

和你交谈真的很令人兴奋，因为你知道，你显然做出了很多牺牲，付出了很多努力。

I think it's really exciting to talk to you because, you know, you've clearly made a lot of sacrifices and put a lot of effort in.

而现在，你们只是在讨论A或B，也就是好与更好的那种问题。

And now you're kind of just having these conversations about a or b, you know, good versus better kind of thing.

所以我认为，一开始就承认你所处的处境有多么优越，总是非常重要的。

So I think it's always really important to acknowledge upfront just how, you know, how useful a situation you've gotten yourself into is.

我知道我们原本打算讨论股票和房产之间的对比，作为核心议题。

I know we were gonna talk about the kind of shares v property thing as as kind of the the main crux of it.

但在继续之前，我想确认一下，除了像股票和房产该怎么选这类问题之外，你现在是否还有其他重大的财务焦虑或担忧？

But before we go any further, just wanted to check, is there any other kind of big kind of brewing existential concerns you have with money at the moment besides the kind of, like, you know, what should I be doing with the shares fee property?

你是说，像生活方式方面的存在性担忧吗？

As in, like, existential in terms of lifestyle or

哦，是说你有没有担心过，比如100美元可能不够，或者你担心旅途中会太累？还是说你对自己的计划、想要多少已经很有把握了？

Oh, in terms of, like, you know, you ever worried that, you know, maybe a $100 won't be enough or you ever worried that, like, you might get too tired on the journey or do you feel like you're pretty well set on what the plan is, how much you want.

现在这纯粹是一个问题：你需要做些什么才能到达那里？

It's really at this point just a question of, like, what do you need to do to get there?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得如果看日常的话，主要是管理我的精力水平。

I think if I look at the day to day, it's probably managing my my energy level.

我的主要收入来源是公司的工作。

So my main source of income is my corporate job.

我一直在办公室工作，一辈子都是这样。

So I work in an office and have all my life.

年复一年，收入确实有小幅增长，但其实并不多。

And year on year, yes, there is a bit of a jump, but it's not really that much.

我的意思是，增长幅度低于通胀率。

I mean, it's less than CPI.

所以对我来说，关键是管理精力，防止倦怠。

So for me, it's really managing my energy levels and preventing burnout.

是的，虽然我为未来十年设定了财务目标，但目前的重点是管理日常事务，保持办公室的精力充沛，同时兼顾自己的健康和财务状况。

So yes, whilst I do have a financial goal in mind for the next ten years, currently, it's managing the day to day, it's managing my energy levels at the office and ensuring that I'm staying on top of my own health, but also my finances as well.

所以，回答你的问题，海登，我认为这对任何处于这段旅程中的人来说都是如此。

So I say to answer your question, Hayden, I think it's for anyone who's on this journey.

对许多人来说，他们的主要收入来源是其他职业和日常工作。

Many for many people, their main source of income will be other careers and their day jobs.

我鼓励人们认真思考：这是否是他们想要的状态？

And I I would encourage people to really think about, well, is it where they want to be?

他们在学习吗？

Are they learning?

他们在自我成长吗？

Are they growing themselves?

因为技能才是你最重要的投资。

Because it's just skills, you know, your your biggest investment.

我坚信持续学习能提升你的能力与收入，同时也要注意管理倦怠和精力水平。

And I really believe in continuous learning to to grow yourself in your earning capacity as well, whilst being mindful of of managing burnout and your energy levels.

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

我觉得这非常有道理。

I think that makes that makes a huge amount of sense.

在我们转向ETF和房产的话题之前，我唯一的问题是，你提到要管理自己的精力水平。

My probably my only question before we move on to the ETFs versus property thing is, like, you talk about managing your energy levels.

对于我们的听众来说，你平时采取哪些方法来管理自己的精力水平呢？

Like, for our listeners, what are some things you do to manage your energy levels?

对于那些在FIRE旅程中感到有些疲惫的人，你有什么建议吗？

Like, do you have any do have any kind of tips for people who are feeling maybe a bit fatigued by their FIRE journey?

是的。

Yeah.

海登想知道你的早晨例行安排。

Hayden wants your morning routine.

他就是这么说的。

That's what he says.

有趣的是，我确实有一个早晨例行安排。

Funny enough, I do have a morning routine.

我通常在5:30左右起床，最晚也不会超过5:45，然后去健身房锻炼整整一小时。

So usually out of bed by about 05:30, 05:45 at a stretch, then off to the gym for a solid hour.

天气好的时候，管理压力——至少对我来说——举重是最有效的方式。

And in good weather, really manage your stress, well, at least for me anyways, is weightlifting.

如果你工作日或那一周特别糟糕，对我而言，最好的释放方式就是去健身房。

So if you had a really crappy day at work or crappy week, the best way the best outlet for me is actually the gym.

通过举重、在健身房达成一些目标，你就能以正确的方式开启新的一天。

So lifting heavy, hitting some goals at the gym, and then you start your day right that way.

但从工作层面来说，为自己设定界限也同样重要。

But from a work level, it's also having the boundaries for yourself as well.

要明确区分工作和私人生活，我知道对很多在企业工作的人来说，公司生活和个人生活很容易混在一起。

Being very clear in terms of where's work and where's personal I know that for a lot of people in corporate, your corporate and your personal lives get intertwined so easily.

所以你工作时间很长，不知不觉中，你可能没时间和朋友联系，反而花在同事身上的时间比花在朋友身上的还多。

So you're working long hours and like, and before you know it, like you're not making contact with your friends or maybe you're spending more time with your colleagues than you are with your with your mates.

因此，我今年有意识地做出决定，进入新的一年，我也会坚持在下班后彻底切断工作。

So I've made a conscious decision this year and also going into into the new year is really being able to shut off, after work hours.

所以到了早上五点半或六点，就结束了。

So after, say, 05:30 or six, that's it.

这就到头了。

That's the end.

工作明天还在那里，因为你对自己最糟糕的事就是 burnout，因为一旦 burnout，恢复起来会花上很久。

Work will still be here the next day, because the worst thing that you could do to yourself is is burnout because once you've burnt out, it's gonna take you so long to actually recover.

因为我以前就经历过。

Because I've done it before.

职业生涯早期，我特别积极，经常工作到晚上十一点甚至午夜。

Early in my career, I was just super eager, worked crazy hours till like 11PM midnight very regularly.

我最终 burnout 了。

I ended up burning out.

实际上我感染了，但没能扛过去，最后住进了医院。

Actually had an infection, but I couldn't fight off so I ended up in hospital.

所以我从中学到了教训。

So I've learned from that.

我绝对不想再经历一次了。

Don't wanna repeat that at all.

对于任何正在经历类似旅程的人，你必须照顾好自己。

And for anyone out there who is on a similar journey, you've got to look after yourself.

你应该把自己放在第一位。

You should put yourself first.

我喜欢这个建议。

I love that advice.

我喜欢这样的观点：那些把自己累垮的人，往往是出于想要努力工作、取得巨大成就的初衷。

I love I love the idea of, like, people who burn themselves out come from the place of trying to work a lot and achieve a lot.

但你要明白，追求成就不能只看一个月或十二个月，而要放眼多年的时间跨度。

But the idea of, you know, you gotta look at achieving a lot, not just on a one month or a twelve month time frame, but on, like, a multi year time frame.

对吧？

Right?

因为，是的，这就像 burnout 一样。

Because, yeah, it's like burning out.

这是一种无法实现你目标的好方法。

It's a great way to not achieve what you want.

所以我觉得这是一个很棒的小见解。

So I think that's a great a great little insight.

你愿意跳过一些关于房地产ETF的问题吗？抱歉。

Are you are you happy to jump into some questions about shares in property in ETF, sorry?

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

For sure.

对。

Yeah.

很好。

Cool.

我知道戴夫有几件事想

I know Dave Dave's got a few things he wants to

我是不是该在这里加入？

Is this where I come

来分享一下这个观点。

share on this.

但我可能要问一个非常直接的问题。

But I might just ask a real pointed question.

简短点说，如果你现在必须在投资ETF和投资房产之间选一个，你会选哪个？为什么？尽量用五个词以内解释。

In as few words as possible, if you had to pick right now between, you know, investing in ETFs or going down the investment property route, which one would you pick and why, you know, why would you do it and see if you can explain that in just five words max.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这取决于每个人。

So it depends on everyone.

所以如果你了解情况，答案会不同。

So if you knew it would be different.

对我来说，我已经投资了大约五年了。

For me, I've got I've already been invested for about five years or so.

所以用几个词来说，我倾向于再买一套房产，把投资组合扩大到四套。

So in a couple of words, I'm leaning towards buying another property, so growing the portfolio to four.

如果我要总结一下，那就是杠杆。

And if I really summarize it, it's leverage.

但这里有个很大的但是，我也得管理好现金流。

But there is a massive but it is cash flow that I've got to manage as well.

如果我再详细解释一下，那就是是的。

So if I just unpack that a little bit more, it's yes.

我会没事的。

I'll be fine.

我的意思是，我仍然能很好地管理我的财务，不会破产。

Like, I I I won't I can still manage my finances pretty well, so I'm not gonna go bankrupt.

但与此同时，我仍然希望多元化投资，看看还能用我的钱做些什么。

But by the same token, I'm still keen to diversify and see what else I can do with my money.

是的。

Yeah.

不错。

Cool.

这说得通。

That makes sense.

如果我们深入探讨一下，假设你购买了第四处房产，负现金流增加到每年约3万美元，你还能继续储蓄吗？还是会变得有点吃紧？

So if we pick at that thread a little bit, if you were to buy a fourth property and let's say the negative cash flow kind of blew out to more like 30 k per year, are you still able to save after that or would that be starting to cut it a little bit tight?

我只是想了解一下你的现金流情况。

Like, I'm just trying to gauge your cash flow.

是的。

Yeah.

我会存下很多钱。

I'd be saving a lot.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

所以我计算过了。

So I calculated that.

如果我利用今天拥有的房产净值再购入第四套房产，我的净储蓄将会变得非常紧张。

If I were to take on a fourth property and leverage the equity that I have today to get into the fourth one, in terms of my net savings, it'd be cutting that extremely fine.

我可能只能节省收入的30%左右。

I'll probably be saving by about 30% of my income.

目前，我正在节省收入的60%。

Currently, I'm saving a solid 60%.

好的。

Okay.

所以30%的话，如果你年收入大概是6万美元，那可能也没多少了。

So 30% I mean, if you make maybe if you make $60 a year, that's maybe not gonna be, you know, all that much.

但如果你的收入达到六位数，那这笔剩余现金仍然相当可观。

But if if you're making, like, in the 6 figure range, then that's still kind of a decent amount to work with in terms of surplus cash.

因为我想表达的是，这未必是非此即彼的选择。

Because I suppose where I'm going with that is it might not necessarily be a case of either or.

你可能可以购买第四套房产，但同时每年仍能保留相当可观的现金流，用来逐步建立你的ETF投资组合。

It might be a case of you could buy the fourth property, but you could also still have a decent amount of cash flow each year to build that ETF portfolio on the side.

所以你实际上是在两全其美：虽然你在房产上的投入已经接近极限，但你依然能够实现资产多元化，有效利用储蓄，并在未来构建一个投资组合——十年后，当你持续将盈余资金投入ETF时，我想象它的规模会相当可观。

So you're kind of getting the best of both worlds where you're you're fairly maxed out on property, but you're still able to diversify and you're still able to use your savings productively and you're able to build a portfolio in the future where after ten years of growth of stuffing surplus cash into an ETF portfolio, I can imagine it would be pretty decent.

而且，我觉得在你给我们的问题或邮件中，你提到过，你在纠结是该选择房产路线还是ETF路线，目标是将来出售ETF来偿还一套或两套房产的贷款。

And either I think in your question to us, in your email, you said that you were wondering if you should go the property route or the ETF route with the goal of then selling the ETFs later to pay off either one of the properties or two of the properties.

你的目标似乎是希望拥有两三套完全付清的房产，对吧？

And the goal was to kinda have a couple like, two or three paid off properties, it sounds like.

这个目标现在还成立吗？

Is that still the goal?

还是说，你更关注的是最终实现一百万的目标，而不在乎具体通过什么方式达成？

Or are you mostly like, are you more interested in the overall goal of, a 100 and you don't care how you get there?

或者，你更执着于‘我想要两到三套付清的房产，并期望它们每年能带来这笔收入’这个想法？

Or are you more attached to the idea of I want two or three properties paid off and I expect them to earn this much per year?

我对拥有房产并没有执念。从整体来看，我的终极目标是什么？如果我回溯自己最初邮件里说过的话，再对比现在的想法，我其实已经做了很多深入的思考。

I'm not attached to having property, like, in the I think in the grand scheme of things, what my net net goal is So if I reflect back on what I had said as part of the original email and to where I am now, I've been doing a lot more thinking.

对我来说更重要的是最终目标。

Really what's more important to me is that end goal.

最终目标是确保有稳定的现金流，因为这能让我实现财务自由，并按照自己的意愿规划职业和生活。

The end goal is to have that solid cash flow in place, because that enables me to reach FIRE and do what I want to do with my career and with my life as well.

所以，实现目标的途径或工具并不重要。

So it doesn't matter what the means is or what the vehicle is to get there.

更重要的是如何达成目标，而不是坚持持有一定数量的房产。

It's more how to get there versus say holding a set number of property.

我之所以提到房产，是因为当我刚开始房产投资时，原本设想的就是：在投资组合中积累一定数量的房产，然后进行整合、逐步还清贷款，最终获得稳定的现金流。

I only suggested property because that was what I had originally had envisaged when I started the property journey, was you build x number of properties in your portfolio and then you consolidate, you pay them down and then you got a consistent cash flow afterwards.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

这说得通。

That makes sense.

我想，你可能会遇到这样一种情况：在过程中选择房产，但到了终点，即使房产已还清，由于各种开支，现金流可能仍然相当不理想。

I suppose the only you can have a situation where you choose property for the journey, but then at the end of the journey, even when they're paid off, they can be fairly kind of suboptimal in terms of cash flow because of all the expenses.

当你拥有房产五年后，你大概会发现，实际开支通常比人们想象的要高，有时每月现金流的损耗会惊人地严重，租金有多少被账单吞噬了。

When you've owned property for five years now, you've probably seen that the expenses are typically more than people like to assume, and sometimes it's surprisingly horrendous in terms of, like, the the monthly cash flow and how much gets eaten into how much those bills eat into the rent.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

百分之百。

A 100%.

比如今年，我收到了第一笔土地税账单，而我根本没有为此做预算。

Like, for example, this this year, I got my first land tax bill, and I wasn't really budgeting for that.

那笔钱有几千块，完全突如其来。

That was a couple of grand, but just came out of nowhere.

现在，这是我今后每年都需要考虑的负债。

Now that's the liability that I've got to consider every year going forward now.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

总是会比人们预期的更多，

There's always there's always more than people expect,

我觉得。

I think.

但如果我们看看你的投资组合，我记得你在邮件中提到，以当前价值计算，投资组合的收益率大约在4%左右。

But if we look at your portfolio, I think in the email you said that the yield on the portfolio, like on the current values, is somewhere around about 4%.

对吗？

Is that right?

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

当然。

Sure.

所以在我看来，这意味着如果它们被还清，假设35%到40%的收益被开支吸收，你大概能获得2.5%的回报。

So that in my mind, that would mean that if they were paid off, you could probably get something two and a half percent if we assume that, you know, 35, 40% comfortably is absorbed by expenses.

是的。

Yeah.

这是基于当前租金的假设。

That's assuming at the current rent.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

在当前租金水平下。

At the current rent.

所以如果我们假设这种收益率保持稳定，未来十年租金随房价上涨，那么即使目标是每年获得10万美元，你也需要超过250万的净投入。

So if we assume that kind of yields stay steady and rents grow with prices over the next ten years, then even at the end goal of wanting a 100 k per year, you're gonna need more than 2 and a half million net then.

你可能需要大约400万美元，才能实现2.5%的净租金收益率。

You're gonna need more like 4,000,000, right, to get that two and a half percent rental yield net.

这样一来，这个目标看起来就变得极其庞大了。

Then that starts to look like a horribly large goal to work towards.

因此，人们可能会决定：好吧，我想了想，其实有几种选择。

So that can be when people decide, okay, well there's a few options I suppose.

你可以选择继续持有这些房产，因为你出于某种原因喜欢这种资产配置；或者你可以转向更多股票投资组合，获得零费用的股息，同时如果组合中包含高增长型股票，还能适当实现一些资本利得，从而获得稳定的4%回报。

You can choose to stick with those properties because you like that asset allocation for whatever reason, or you can shift to more of a share portfolio where you get dividends on a zero expenses and then you can also harvest a little bit of gains if you've got kind of higher growth shares in the portfolio as well and you can get a comfortable 4%.

这样就能降低你的资金需求，因为你不再固执地试图用一个只能提供2.5%回报、且无法进一步提升的资产来达成目标。

Then that kind of reduces what you need because you're not trying to stubbornly make it work with an asset that's providing 2.5% with no real way of juicing that further.

或者，如果你真的想继续坚持房产为主的组合，你可以选择出售这些房产，不转投股票，而是转投更高收益率的房产，争取实现约4%的净收益率——如果你想做到这一点，可能需要找到收益率在7%甚至更高的房产。

Or if you really wanted to keep with the property focused portfolio, you could opt for I guess you would sell them and instead of reallocating to shares, would sell and then invest into a higher yield property and try and get 4% ish net, which you'd probably need a 7% or maybe a little bit more yield from a property if you wanted to do that.

所以你可以选择几种不同的方式，但无论你选择哪条路，到了终点时，即使这些房产已经付清贷款，可能也不太适合产生现金流。

So there's a few different ways you could do it, but regardless of which option you choose along the way, the current properties at the end of the journey, even paid off, are probably not gonna be best suited for cash flow.

你有没有考虑过，从这个角度来思考你的最终目标？

Have you thought about that, the end goal in that that sort of a sense?

是的。

Yeah.

我一直在浏览各种论坛和Reddit，发现有很多人处境相似，你说得对。

I've been I've been I've been trolling the various forums and Reddit and there are a lot of people in similar situations and and you're right.

如果我只看毛收益，是的，收益率大约是4%。

If I look at gross value, yes, the yield is like 4%.

但当我考虑到所有相关的开支、税费等等，说实话，我的净收益率其实很低。

But then if I consider all of the expenses that come with it as well and then all of the taxes and whatnot that come with it to my net yield is, is pretty low, if I if I'm really honest.

所以我的最终目标是，我并不固守这些房产。

So my end goal is I'm, I'm not wedded to these properties.

我甚至都没在现实中见过它们。

Haven't even seen them in in real life.

所以我不完全是个新手。

So I'm not I'm not entirely wet.

这可能是件好事。

That can be a good thing.

我不执着于这些房产。

I'm not I'm not wedded to them.

这意味着，如果我利用这些房产作为未来积累净资产的途径，然后最终出售它们，并将资金投入一个共同投资组合，以帮助我获得所需的收入。

So that means that to get to, if I leverage these properties as a way to get to a net equity position in the future, and then ultimately sell them down and then put them in a in say a shared portfolio that will help me generate the income that I need.

我对这一点持非常开放的态度。

I'm very much open minded about that.

我想问题更多在于，以现在的状况来看，以及我未来想如何实现目标，我还在犹豫不决。

I guess the question is more around, as it is today and how I want to get there in the future, I'm still tossing up.

这仍然是最好的做法吗？

Is it still the best way to go about doing this?

是继续买第四套房产，还是分散投资到ETF？

Is it buying at the fourth one or is it diversifying into ETFs?

因为我一直都在想，我自己本身也是一个风险厌恶型的人。

Because what's always on my mind is I'm fairly risk averse as a person as well.

我成长在一个相当风险厌恶的家庭，而我的工作本身也需要大量考虑各种风险。

So I grew up in a fairly risk averse family and my job itself requires a lot of consideration of various risks.

我非常清楚，把所有钱或所有鸡蛋都放在房地产这个篮子里是有风险的。

I'm very cognizant that about putting all my money or all my eggs into the property basket.

这其中伴随着很多风险，但如果一切顺利，回报也非常可观。

There's There's a lot of risk that comes with it as well, but also a lot of reward if it all pays out as well.

所以这就是为什么我还在犹豫，是否要购买第四套房产？

So that's why I'm still at two minds in terms of do I look at a fourth property?

如果买第四套，可能不会选在同一区域。

If it's a fourth one, it might not be in the same set.

可能会选在别的地方，或者干脆转向股票投资，同时保留两套房产。

Might be somewhere else, or it is just looking at diversifying into shares and having two on at the same time.

我担心股票投资的问题是，我无法获得那种杠杆效应。

The thing that's on my mind about shares is I won't get that leverage.

所以我将掌控一个价值更高的资产，这能让我更快达成目标。

So I'll be controlling a larger value asset, which will get me there faster.

但说实话，我对此并不在意，因为从长远来看，虽然可能不会像我希望的那样快，但依然能让我到达目的地，同时让我每天都能安心，因为我已经很好地实现了多元化，并拥有这种分散风险带来的安全感。

But to be honest, I'm okay with that because if I look at the longer term, like, will still get me maybe not not as fast as I might want to, but it will still get me there get me to where I want to be with a peace of mind in the day to day that I've diversified well and I have that security diversification as well.

你提到自己有点风险厌恶，这很有趣，因为我原以为你会接着说：‘所以我对把大量资金投入股市不太舒服’，因为这通常是风险厌恶型人士的看法。

It's fascinating that you say about being somewhat risk averse because I thought you were going to follow that comment up with, so I'm not super comfortable on putting massive amounts in the share market because that tends to be how people who are risk averse see things.

因为，你可以从多个角度来审视这个问题。

Because, I mean, you can look at it from multiple angles.

对吧？

Right?

因为风险厌恶的人通常不喜欢波动，所以会对股市敬而远之，而房产则显得更安全。

Because people who are risk averse don't often don't like volatility, so they'll be kind of shy of the share market and then property will be safer.

即使你这里已经有超过一百万美元的债务，如果继续走这条路，债务可能还会增加到两百万美元。

And even though there's, you know, like, over $1,000,000 of debt attached here and then possibly even more, like, $2,000,000 of debt if that if you kind of continue down this path.

但对很多人来说，这反而显得很风险厌恶，因为他们会觉得：‘毕竟是房产啊。’

That feels risk averse to a lot of people because they're like, well, it's property.

我能看得到。

I can see it.

我能摸得着。

I can touch it.

我信任它。

I trust it.

我知道它是稳定的，等等一切。

I know it's stable and all the rest of it.

所以人们以不同方式定义风险厌恶或风险承受能力，这真有意思。

So it's fascinating how people classify risk aversion or risk tolerance in different ways.

非常有趣。

Super interesting.

海登，你对此有什么看法吗？

Do any you comments on that, Hayden?

因为我知道你很可能接触过类似的人，尤其是在悉尼，他们可能把所有钱都投入了一套昂贵的房产，对此感到完全安心，负债可能高达七位数，却对建立股票投资组合感到不安，因为担心波动性之类的问题。

Because I know you probably talk to people who are similar where, especially being in Sydney, maybe they've put all their money into an expensive home and they feel completely okay with that and they're probably 7 figures in debt and then they're nervous about building a share portfolio because of the volatility, things like that.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我认为你之前几期节目中所分析的观点，戴夫，我是认同的，那就是，试图通过杠杆购买房产，尤其是负现金流或收支平衡的房产，作为一种过渡策略，在你积累足够资本之前，先这样操作，之后再考虑将资金投入股票ETF组合，这确实是个不错的策略。

I mean, I think we've I think you've I agree with what you've unpacked in previous episodes, Dave, which is that, like, you know, the idea of trying to get leveraged investment properties, particularly negatively geared ones or ones that are neutrally geared, guess, is like, it's a good strategy in the interim till you can build up enough capital to then consider putting that in a share ETF portfolio.

安迪，听你刚才说的时候，我一直在想，其中一件特别有意思的事是，你提到你拥有这三处房产。

I think probably one of the more interesting stuff I've thinking about as you've been talking Andy is that, you know, you kinda say I've got this, you know, these three properties.

我在想，第四处房产我该怎么处理？

I'm wondering what I should do with the fourth.

我认为总有一些值得考虑的事情，比如，如果你目前只关注投资组合的四分之一或四分之一的决策，有时候，单纯为了多元化而采取不同的做法是有意义的，因为这就像我们为什么购买两只ETF，或者为什么对冲资产——毕竟，如果你四分之三的财富都集中在房产上，而房产市场上涨，你大概会非常开心，也不会坐在那儿想：‘唉，真希望第四处房产也涨了。’

I think there's always something that's worth considering, which is like, if you're only really dealing with a quarter of your portfolio or a quarter of your decisions, sometimes it can be useful to just do something different and diversify it on principle because then at least it's the same reason, you know, we we buy two ETFs or we, you know, hedge things against one another because, you know, if if three quarters of your wealth stays in property and the property market goes up, you're probably gonna be pretty happy and you're probably not gonna be sitting around going, oh, I wish there was like a fourth property in the market.

但如果你把全部四笔投资都押在房产上，而房产市场却停滞不前，同时ETF却上涨了，那你可能会懊恼得想打自己。

Whereas if, you know, property kind of stagnates, so you run into issues there and then ETFs go up and you went four out of four into property, you'll probably be punching yourself a little bit.

我经常谈到一种叫做‘情绪对冲’的概念。

I often talk about this idea of like emotional hedging sometimes.

这其实就是一些管理自己心理状态的方法。

It's just like ways to like manage your own psychology.