61. 问答：债务循环

我不确定作为普通散户投资者，限价单是否真的有充分的理由。

I don't know if there's a genuinely decent case for limit order as like a retail casual investor.

我以前确实用过限价单，但说实话，我觉得这更像是一种自我安慰的方式。

I've definitely used them before, but I feel like they're really just a form of self therapy realistically.

问题在于，如果你已经打算买入或卖出某样东西，却还下限价单，那其实是在赌注——一方面你可能拿到想要的价格，但如果你没拿到，就会错失机会。

The the problem with it is if you're already intending to buy or sell something and you're placing a limit order, you're just taking a bet because on one side, you might get the price you want, but if you don't get the price you want, you're gonna lose out.

Aussie Fire 播客是由 Strong Money Australia 和 Perla 合作推出的，Perla 是澳大利亚最受欢迎的枯燥但长期投资平台。

Aussie Fire podcast is a collaboration between Strong Money Australia and Perla, Australia's favorite boring long term investing platform.

欢迎收听我们的主持人——来自 Strong Money Australia 的 Dave 和来自 Perla 的 Hayden，他们将探讨所有关于财务自由的话题。

Join our hosts, Dave from Strong Money Australia and Hayden from Perla as they discuss all things financial independence.

在 Aussie Fire，我们非常推崇分享经验并讨论金钱问题。

At Aussie Fire, we're big fans of sharing experiences and talking about money.

然而，请注意，我们提供的任何建议都是通用性质的，并未考虑您的个人财务状况、需求或目标。

However, please note that any advice is general and does not consider your financial situation, needs or objectives.

请自行判断这些建议是否适合您，如有疑虑，请咨询持牌财务顾问。

Consider whether it's appropriate for you and if in doubt, speak to a licensed financial adviser.

好了，各位。

Alright, guys.

欢迎回到《Aussie Fire》播客的新一期节目。

Welcome back to a new episode of Aussie Fire podcast.

今天，我们将回答几个问题，并探讨一个热门话题，也是我们这个播客经常重提的主题——债务循环。

In today, we're gonna be tackling a few questions, and we're gonna be speaking about what is a bit of a hot topic and a bit of a favorite theme that we keep seem to revisit on this podcast and that is debt recycling.

因此，我们将深入分析一些听众关于这个主题的问题。

So we'll be unpacking a few listener questions around that particular theme.

我们还会回答一个关于限价单和市价单的问题。

And we'll also be answering one around limit orders and market orders.

那么，不废话了，咱们直接开始吧，伙计，因为有几个问题要处理。

So without further ado, let's just jump straight into it, mate, because there's a couple of questions to get through.

第一个问题是关于限价单和市价单的。

And the first question is around limit and market orders.

你愿意为我们详细说明一下听众关于这个问题的具体提问吗？

Do you wanna run us through the listener's specific question on that?

是的

Yeah.

当然

Definitely.

所以今天我们收到的听众问题是：我和我的伴侣每六周从储蓄中投资三只ETF。

So the listener question we have today is that my partner and I invest in three ETFs every six weeks from our savings.

想知道你们是如何决定使用限价单还是市价单的。

Just wondering how you decide whether to do this via a limit order or via a market order.

我读到过限价单更好，可以避免多付钱，但似乎要确定一个合理的价格要花很多功夫。

I've read that limit orders are better so that you don't overpay, but it seems like a lot of work trying to figure out what a fair price is to set.

这是个好问题。

It's a good question.

确实是个好问题。

It is a good question.

我认为每个人都会想知道这一点，尤其是在投资初期。

And I think everybody wonders this, especially in the early days of their investing journey.

这是那种刚开始投资时你不会本能知道的事情，等等，不对。

It's one of those things that you don't necessarily know intuitively when you start investing like, Well, wait a minute.

我并不是直接就去买。

I don't just actually buy.

我得决定是按什么价格买，还是直接点一个市场订单的按钮。

I have to decide either what price to buy or I just decide to click a button that's like a market order.

市场订单基本上就是：我想买这些股票，

That's just basically well, what a market order is almost like, I wanna buy these shares.

给我市场上最好的价格就行。

Just give me the best price in the market.

所以有时候你可能会运气不好，市场上最好的价格其实是个很差的价格，特别是当你交易的是某种流动性低的资产时，你管这叫什么？

And so essentially, it can happen where you happen to be unlucky and the best price in the market is actually a crap price because if you're trading something that is a low what would you call it?

是流动性差的股票。

It's not liquid share.

交易频率非常低。

It trades very infrequently.

在某一天，市场上卖方的数量并不多。

You don't have very many sellers in the market on a particular day.

这种情况在小型公司和某些原因导致持股集中的股票中会发生，它们每天的交易量非常少。

This can happen with small companies and shares that are, for whatever reason, quite tightly held and they just don't trade very much volume each day.

当你下市价单时，你基本上是在说：我愿意支付任何价格，只要有人愿意卖，但请给我当前可用的最优价格。

When you put a market order, you're basically like, I'll pay any price whatever someone's willing to sell at, but give me the best price that's available.

所以你可能会遇到一些非常奇怪的情况，比如一只股票的交易价格可能是1美元左右。

So you can have these very strange scenarios where a share might be trading at like a dollar, let's say.

但当你下单买入时，你以为自己能以大约1美元的价格成交，因为你下了市价单，而当前交易价格是1美元。

But there's you put in your order, your buy order, and you think you're gonna get somewhere around a dollar because you put in a market order and the current trading price is a dollar.

但在那个特定时刻，市场上根本没有卖家。

But there's no sellers in the market at that particular point in time.

于是你的市价单就挂在市场里，没有卖家接单，然后可能有人进来表示：我想卖，但我只愿意以1.30美元的价格卖出。

So what happens is your market your order just sits there in the market with no sellers and then somebody might come in and say, well, I wanna sell, but I only wanna sell at a dollar 30.

我不愿意以1美元的价格卖出。

I don't wanna sell it for a dollar.

他们在那里挂了一个持续性的限价单，价格是1.30美元，这是市场上唯一的订单。

And they've had this kind of standing order in there for a dollar 30 and that's the only order that's in the market.

所以你的订单会以1.30美元成交，即使之前交易价格是1美元，或者前一天的价格也只有1美元。

And so your order gets filled at a dollar 30 even though the trading price before that was a dollar or, you know, the the day before it was only a dollar.

因此，在流动性很差的股票上，可能会出现一些非常奇怪的情况。

So you can get some very strange things that happen with very illiquid shares.

但我想，当你交易ETF和其他几乎全天候持续交易的股票，比如那些每天每分钟都在成交的公司股票时，这类情况通常不会发生。

But I guess when you're dealing with ETFs and other shares, even individual companies that trade essentially all day every day, they'll be transacting every single minute of the day, Those kind of things tend not to happen.

当你交易大型股票，尤其是热门的ETF，比如VAS或IVV之类的，当你下市价单时，即使你没有设置价格上限，订单也几乎肯定会成交。

When you're dealing with very big shares, especially popular ETFs, whether it's a VAS or an IVV or something like that, when you put in a market order, you're basically going to get filled even though you're not putting a price limit.

你的订单会以接近当前交易价的价格成交，大概相差几美分，这主要是因为这些股票交易频率非常高。

You're going to get filled somewhere around the trading price, probably within a few cents or so just because of the nature of how often these things transact.

我想问你一个问题，海登，因为我知道当人们使用Perla并启用自动投资功能时，当有人表示‘是的，我想每周投资500美元到VAS，或者每月投资一次’时，系统会在市场上下什么样的订单？

I would like to ask you a question, Hayden, because I know when people are using Perla and they're using auto invest, what kind of orders does that place in the market when someone says, yeah, I want to invest $500 every week into VAS or every month or whatever.

你们在后台处理这些操作。

You guys kinda handle that on the back end.

从市场订单的角度来看，这到底是如何运作的？

How does that actually work in terms of a market order?

这是个很好的问题。

That's a great question.

我们通过自动化功能下达的几乎所有订单，默认都是市价单，低流动性股票除外。

So pretty much every order that we place through our automate features is placed as a market order by default with the exception of basically low liquidity stocks.

对于这些股票，我们会以市价设置限价单。

With those ones, we place a limit order at the market price.

比如说，现在是上午10:01，某只随机股票的价格是100.01美元，而它是一只交易量非常低的股票，这意味着它的价格波动会很大。

So let's say it's 10:01AM and the price of a particular random share is a $100.01, and it's a really low traded share which means it can fluctuate a lot.

因为波动才是最大的问题。

Because the fluctuation are the biggest problems.

对吧？

Right?

如果上一次成交价是100.01美元，但昨天根本没人买卖过它，那么只要有一个随机的人在没人交易的时候进入市场，说‘我现在想以120美元卖我的股票’，就可能造成影响。

It's like if if the last price was a $100.01, but no one tried to buy or sell it to yesterday, All it takes is one random person to come into the market when no one else is, you know, selling and say, I wanna sell it for I wanna sell my shares for a $120 right now.

然后你突然就要为这个支付巨额溢价。

And then suddenly you just end up paying like a massive premium on this.

所以我们注意到，我们的客户在交易极低成交量的股票时遇到了这个问题。

So we kind of noticed our customers are struggling with this problem on really low volume stuff.

但要明确的是，如果你在听这段话，这很可能不会影响到你，因为99%的人交易的都是高流动性的资产，比如大多数ETF和高流动性的股票。

And to be clear, when I if you're listening to this, it's not something that probably affects you because 99% of people are just trading high liquidity pretty much, you know, most of the ETFs really high liquidity and then also most of the shares are high liquidity.

比如，如果你投资的是指数，比如标普500或纳斯达克100，或者你投资的是200指数，那你基本不会注意到这个问题。

Like, if you're buying in an index, like, you're already buying a US stock in the S and P or, you know, the Nasdaq 100, if you're already buying in the a 200 index, then you're not really gonna notice this.

但在这些情况下，我们会根据当前市场价格设置限价单，这样可以避免极端情况，但有时也会导致自动化交易失败，因为在限价单设定的那一刻，当天可能根本没有人愿意以该价格或更低的价格卖出股票，这实际上又回到了限价单与市价单的核心区别。

But in those cases, we place limit orders based on the current market price, which has the effect of less crazy outcomes, but it can also have the effect of sometimes the automations will fail because at the time that limit order is set, there might be no one within that trading day that ever wants to trade for, you know, to to sell their stuff for anything at that price or lower, basically, which which really just speaks back to the core of, like, market versus limit orders.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

当一些人试图精细调整时，这往往会变得有点棘手。

It tends to be a little bit tricky when you because because some people will try and fine tune it.

对吧？

Right?

如果一只股票交易价格是每股100美元，他们就会说：我想以99.5美元买入，于是就挂单，想耍点小聪明。

If something's trading at a $100 a share, they'll be like, well, I want to buy at $99.5 so then they'll put in it and try and get a little bit cute with it.

我想省几美分，所以把订单挂到99.5美元，希望当天能成交。

I want to save a few pennies and I want to put in my order at 99.5 and I hope it gets filled on that particular day.

但它可能不会成交。

But it might not.

那天股价可能涨到了100.3美元。

The shares might trade up to $100.3 that day.

如果你试图贪点小便宜，挂一个低于市价的订单，你的订单可能会在市场里一直搁置。

Your order can just languish there in the market if you try and get a little bit I suppose a little bit cheap with it and try and get it for slightly lower than where it's trading.

你的交易根本不会成交。

You won't actually get your trade filled.

这可能会让人有点沮丧。

That can be a little bit frustrating.

这取决于你这么做的原因。

Suppose it depends why you're trying to do it.

我可以想象一种情况，有人非常挑剔，想买自己偏好的公司或ETF的股票，但希望避开那些价格因各种原因飙升的日子。

I could imagine a case where someone's very particular and they want to buy the shares of their preferred company or preferred ETF, but they would like to avoid those particular days where prices shoot up for whatever reason.

你知道有些日子市场会暴跌3%，有时候如果跌了3%，第二天又会涨3%、4%之类的。

You know how you get crazy days where the market will go down 3% or sometimes if it goes down 3%, next day it'll go up 3% or 4% or something like that.

如果你希望避开这些特殊的异常日子，不在那个时点买入，那你可能得等到价格 hopefully 回落。

If you're wanting to avoid those specific outlier days and not buy at that particular time and try and I suppose you're going to have to wait until the price would hopefully come back down.

如果是这种情况，你可以下限价单，以限制价格上涨的风险，我想。

That's the case, then you could put in a limit order just so you cap the price upside, I suppose.

这大概不是我会去做的事，尤其是当你只是购买指数基金或大型公司股票时。

It's probably not something that I would bother doing, especially if you're just buying index funds and large company shares, something like that.

但我能理解在某些情况下这样做是有道理的。

But I suppose I can see a case where that does make sense.

我不知道作为普通散户投资者，限价单是否真的有充分的理由。

I don't know if there's genuinely decent case for limit order as like a retail casual investor.

我确实以前用过限价单，但说实话，我觉得这更像是一种自我心理安慰。

I've definitely used them before, but I feel like they're really just a form of self therapy realistically.

问题在于，如果你本来就已经打算买入或卖出某样东西，却还设置限价单，那其实就是在赌。

The the problem with it is if you're already intending to buy or sell something and you're placing a limit order, you're just taking a bet.

因为一方面你可能如愿以偿地拿到想要的价格，但如果你没等到那个价格，就会错失机会。

Because on one side you might get the price you want, but if you don't get the price you want, you're gonna lose out.

当然，如果你对市场将朝某个方向移动有相当高的把握，这种情况就可能自行化解。

Obviously, that can sway itself if you think the market's gonna move in a particular direction with a fairly high degree of certainty.

我认为，这大概就是限价单唯一真正有意义的时刻。

And that's probably the only time I think limit orders ever really make a lot of sense to me.

比如，假设我今天早上打算买VAS，结果VAS今天涨了7%，涨幅惊人。

Like for instance, let's say I was gonna go buy VAS this morning and VAS went up today 7%, crazy amount.

我真的很想今天就买入，又不想明天再登录账户操作。

And I really wanted to buy it today and I didn't wanna log back in tomorrow.

在这种情况下，我可能会考虑下限价单，因为我根据对市场的观察，觉得如果某资产涨跌得太快，通常在下一个交易日或接下来的几个交易日内，价格往往会回调。

I'd probably consider placing a limit order in that case because I just think there's such a high chance just based on what I've seen in the market that if something goes up or down that quickly, usually the next trading day or within the next couple of trading days, it tends to correct in some way.

恰恰相反。

It's the opposite of that.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

但我的意思是，这种情况我大概每三年才会遇到一次。

But I mean, that's I see that happen like once every three years too.

即使在那种情况下，我也知道我这么做很蠢。

And even then I kinda know when I'm doing it, it's dumb.

即使我这么做了，成功率可能还是略低于50%，但仍然有很高的概率说明这其实很蠢，你知道的。

And even then when I do it, there's probably still a slightly less than 50% chance, but still a high percentage chance that it's kinda dumb, you know.

我以前也陷进过这种情况。

And I've been caught up in that before.

我觉得今年我没买VAS，是因为我等着价格下跌。

I think this year I I didn't buy VAS when I wanted to because I was waiting for the price to go down.

因为这从根本上说就是问题所在。

Because that's fundamentally it.

限价单本身并不好。

It's like a limit order itself is not good.

对吧？

Right?

这就像，如果你想买某样东西，又不想一直盯着看，而且你非常有信心认为价格会比现在下跌，那么限价单就开始有道理了。

It's just like if you wanna buy something and you don't wanna sit around watching it and you have a high conviction that you think the price is gonna go down compared to right now, then limit order start to make sense.

但这需要太多条件同时满足，即便如此，你还会遇到如何真正拥有高信心的问题。

But that's a lot of stars to align and even then you get into the problems of how do you even have a high conviction.

你怎么可能真正理解世界将发生什么到这种程度呢？

Like, how do you really understand what's gonna happen in the world that much?

尤其是在买入端，你知道大多数高流动性资产和ETF随着时间推移都会呈上升趋势。

Particularly on the buy side when you know that most like high liquidity assets and ETFs will just trend upwards with time.

所以你不能说这是五五开，因为如果市场长期上涨，价格上涨的概率显然超过50%，你知道的。

So you can't even be like it's fifty fifty because there's more than 50% chance that it's gonna go up, you know, if the market's always going up over time.

对吧？

Right?

所以你必须真的觉得，就是今天这一天。

So you have to really like you have to really be like, this is the particular day.

我觉得，如果你对买入某样东西没有热情，有时候反而会很有趣。

I think if you don't if you're not passionate about buying something is where it can be interesting sometimes.

我觉得，只有当你本来就想买的时候，事情才会变得棘手。

I think it only really gets tricky if you just like are gonna buy it anyway.

但如果你只是想买VaaS，结果它突然暴涨，你觉得它现在被过度炒作，那我可能会改买VGS。

Whereas if you're like, oh, you know, I wanna buy VaaS, but if it kinda just rockets up and I feel like it's overhyped at the moment, I might just buy some VGS instead.

但这样一来，就进入了滑坡问题：为什么你要根据价格波动来调整投资组合的构成？

But then that gets into the slippery slope of like, why would you modify your portfolio composition based on price fluctuations?

你应该有一个明确的焦点：这就是我想投资的，就这么简单。

You know, like you should have a a focus that's like, this is what I wanna invest in and that's kind of it.

我们和Automate与Perler经常讨论这一点：Automate如此有用的原因，并不是因为我只是在推销这个功能，而是因为它不在于我们自动化了什么。

And we talk about this with Automate with Perler a bunch is like, the reason Automate's so useful, and this is not me trying to just sell the feature, but it's like, it's not because we automate stuff.

对吧？

Right?

当然，你没必要每两周或每五分钟就登录一次，但说实话，这也没什么特别吸引人的。

Like, sure, you don't have to log in every two weeks or five minutes, but like, that's not that exciting.

对吧？

Right?

每两周自动化节省五分钟的时间，根本不该让我们获得任何奖项，也不会让生活有实质性的改善。

Like automating away five minutes of your time every fortnight should not really give us any awards or make your life any materially better.

真正棒的是，它帮你免去了做决定的负担。

What's great about it is that it takes away a decision from you.

就像自动信用卡还款、自动房贷还款一样。

Same kind of way like automatic credit card repayments, automatic mortgage repayments.

很多人如果可以选择的话，可能根本不会全额偿还信用卡账单。

Like, a lot of people would probably not pay their full credit card balance if they had a choice.

如果有个小恶魔在他们耳边说：嘿，你这到底是在干嘛？

If someone came up to them little devil on their shoulder and said, hey, you know, what's going on here?

你想要买那台新电视吗？

Would you do you wanna get that new TV?

还是你只想支付100块，而不是还款的95%？

Or do you wanna just like only pay pay a 100 instead of 95% of your your repayment?

所以这种强制性的决策非常有用，否则你会一直纠结一些愚蠢的问题，比如：我需要投资吗？

So that kind of forced decision making is is really useful because that otherwise you sit around asking yourself dumb questions like, do I need to invest?

我该下限价单吗？

Should I place a limit order?

所有这些事情，在大局来看其实都没那么重要。

Like all these things are just in the grand scheme of things aren't gonna matter.

在我的生活中，我不断看到很多人开始投资，或者在股票市场上交易。

And my life, I have continually watched a lot of people start investing all the time or trading on the stock market.

他们一开始总是先下几笔市价单，然后会转而长时间使用限价单。

And they'll always start out, they'll make a couple of market orders, then they'll go make limit orders for a while.

但过一段时间，他们就会感到疲惫，开始想：我到底在干什么？

Then at some point, they just get tired and think, what am I really doing here?

我就直接下个市价单。

I'll just place a order on market.

因为我想你真正想表达的是，这其实是个行为问题。

Because I suppose what you're really getting at there is it's behavioral.

对吧？

Right?

无论是通过自动化功能还是其他方式，定期且自动地投资，其全部好处就在于你不会过度思考，无论当天市场如何波动，你都会坚持执行，因为你已经决定，从长远来看，这是最合理的策略。

The whole benefit of investing religiously and automatically, whether you're doing it through an automated feature or not, is the whole fact that you're not overthinking things and you're doing things regardless of what's happening on that particular day because you've decided that that's the strategy that makes the most sense over the long term.

当你开始纠结于限价单，试图通过几美分的微小差异来完美优化，试图以某种方式押注你认为或希望会发生的事情时，你就容易陷入分析瘫痪，开始想得太多。

When you start getting into the weeds a little bit with limit orders and trying to perfect things by a few cents here and a few cents there and trying to, I suppose, bet in some way on what you think is going to happen or what you hope is going to happen, then you start to get into a little bit of analysis paralysis and you start to overthink things a little bit too much, I think.

所以，这样做也有一点弊端。

So there is a bit of a downside that comes with that.

我想我们可以继续下一个问题了，戴夫。

I think we can move on to our next question, Dave.

我们已经把这个话题讲得够多了。

We've probably unpacked that one one enough.

等待达到债务再循环门槛与现在投资之间的成本效益对比。

This one is cost benefit of waiting to meet the debt recycling threshold versus investing now.

这是听众提出的问题。

So this is the listener question.

我不太想再提另一个债务再循环的问题，但我还没见过有人讨论过这个。

I hate to have another debt recycling question, but I haven't yet seen this covered anywhere.

我目前正在进行债务再循环，因为我住在郊区，收入很高。

I'm currently debt recycling because I'm living regionally and have a very strong income.

但当我搬回家乡珀斯时，我的每月盈余现金流将减少到大约2000美元。

However, when I move back to my home Perth, my surplus cash flow will reduce to only $2,000 a month roughly.

我的银行要求至少20000美元才能进行债务再循环，因此我需要大约十个月的储蓄才能积累足够的资金进行债务再循环。

My bank requires a minimum of $20,000 to debt recycle, so it will take approximately ten months of saving to generate enough cash to debt recycle.

虽然影响因素很多，但你如何计算债务再循环的好处与尽早把资金投入市场之间的权衡？比如，每月投资2000美元， versus 每十个月投资一次20000美元？

There are a lot of factors at play, but how would you calculate the benefit of debt recycling versus getting the money in the market sooner, e g investing $2,000 every month versus investing $20,000 every ten months?

尽管如此，2万美元的整笔资金能享受到债务再循环的好处。

Albeit, the 20 k lump sum gets the benefit of debt recycling.

我喜欢这个问题。

I love that question.

我确实以前想过这个问题。

I've definitely thought about that before.

戴夫，你以前想过这个问题吗？

Have you thought about that before, Dave?

没有。

No.

我之前还真没想过这个问题

I actually haven't thought about that before we

这是不是因为当你开始债务循环时，你已经差不多有资金了？

got Is this because when you started debt recycling, you already kinda had the capital, so to speak?

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yeah.

它一直都是零零散散的。

It was already it was always like lumps.

从来都不是那种定期定额投资的情况。

It was never like a dollar cost averaging sort of situation.

所以这就是原因。

So that would be why.

但这确实是个有趣的问题。

But it's it's interesting question nonetheless.

因为你可以看到，人们显然希望尽快把钱投入市场，以尽早获得回报，毕竟投资的初衷就是期望获得比储蓄账户或抵消账户更高的回报，所以越快越好。

Because you can see there's a desire to get the money in the market as soon as possible, obviously, to start getting returns that you would because the whole point of investing is you expect to get returns that's higher than what you can get in a savings account or an offset account, you want to do that as quickly as possible.

所以这说得通。

So that makes sense.

但这样做的权衡是，当你试图进行债务循环时，可能需要一些时间才能积累到2万美元，就像这个具体情况一样。

But then the trade off to that is when you're trying to debt recycle, then that can take some time before you get to the $20, like in this particular case, 20,000.

这需要时间。

That can take time.

对吧？

Right?

那么在这十个月，或者说一年里，你就错失了市场的回报。

Then you're kind of missing out on the market returns in that ten months, say, or in that year, let's say.

如果市场表现非常强劲，这种损失可能会很显著。

And that could be significant if the market is performing very strongly.

但问题是，市场并不总是表现强劲，我认为最合理的方式是基于你对市场长期平均回报的预期，与你的抵扣账户进行比较。

But the problem with that is the market doesn't always perform strongly, I think it makes the most sense to work on sort of a long term average of what you think the market will be versus your offset account.

我会大致估计市场为8%左右，抵扣账户为5%。

And I would kind of peg that at somewhere like 8% for the market maybe and 5% for the offset account.

这意味着，当你把资金放在抵扣账户而非市场中时，相当于每年承受约3%的隐性成本或拖累。

So that would mean there's an implied cost or drag of like 3% while you have that money in offset versus having it in the market.

在这个特定情境下，涉及的时间跨度是十个月或一年。

And in this particular scenario, the timeframe involved is ten months or a year.

所以，如果一次性投入2万美元，且在一年内分批投入，那么当一半资金（即1万美元）进入市场时，正好是六个月的中间点。

So if the lump is $20 and the timeframe is one year and your dollar cost averaging the money in over that period of time, then the halfway point of that where half the money will be invested is six months or basically $10 in the market.

而把这笔钱放在抵销账户而不是市场中，造成的损失或成本拖累是10美元的3%，相当于每年300美元。

And the loss or the cost drag of having that in offset versus the market is 3% on $10, which is like $300 for the year.

所以，这就是你因为没有投资这笔钱而平均损失的金额。

So that's how much you lost on average by not investing the money.

你明白这一点吗？

Does that make sense to you?

这就是你如何看待这种选择的成本的方式吗？

Is that how you would kind of think about, you know, the cost of that option?

我可能有一个更简单的看法，那就是我会在这期间直接把它投资出去。

I probably have a simpler view, which is like, I would just invest it in the meantime.

这样做的原因是，我之前就考虑过机会成本的问题，也就是：如果你现在就把钱投入市场，接下来的十个月，市场会有什么表现，你可能会错过什么？

And the reason for that is because I get the opportunity cost question because I've tackled it before, which is like, obviously, if you put the money in the market now, the next ten months, what's it gonna do in the market that you might miss out on?

但关键是把钱投入市场，因为‘市场内 vs 市场外’这种说法其实很有误导性。

But the point is put it in the market because this question of like, oh, you know, in the market versus not in the market, think it's really deceiving.

因为你真正想说的是：如果你直接把钱投入市场（不涉及债务循环），并且永远持有，这是第一种情况。

Because what you're really saying is like, if you were to put it straight into the market in a non debt recycled sense and leave it there forever, that's scenario one.

第二种情况是把钱投入市场，十个月后取出并进行债务循环利用。

Scenario two is putting it into the market and then after ten months taking it out of the market and debt recycling it then.

实际上，这里有几点需要注意。

And realistically then, a couple things.

一方面，好处是这将决策推迟到你可能需要卖出的时刻。

One is like, the good thing is that defers any decision making till the point in which you might need to sell it anyway.

其次，你真正讨论的并不是增长本身，而是增长损失的成本。

And then secondly, you're not really talking about the growth that's the cost, the loss of growth that's the cost.

实际上，这仅仅是可能被折现的资本利得税，假设持有期为十二个月。

It's actually just the potentially discounted, assuming it's twelve months capital gains tax that you're paying on it.

因为真正移动资金的成本，其实是如果资产增值后你将面临的税务负担，这只是增长的一部分。

Because like that's the actual cost of moving it is like the tax hit you'll have if it grows, which is a portion of the growth.

但有一个非常相关的例外情况，我们在其他节目中也讨论过：如果你不打算让自己陷入洗售交易的境地，这种策略才成立。

The one caveat to that that's really relevant is, and we've talked about this in other episodes is, that scenario makes sense if you don't intend to put yourself in a situation where you're gonna be doing a wash sale.

洗售交易指的是：你不能刚投资了IVV，等十个月后卖出，然后用这笔现金还贷，再立刻重新借贷并第二天又买回IVV，诸如此类的操作。

So wash sale is like, you can't just invest in IVV and then wait ten months and then sell it out and then use that cash to pay off a loan and then redraw that loan and then invest in IVV, you know, the next day or something like that.

因为在澳大利亚税务局看来，你本质上只是为了税务目的而采取了某种行动，这就是最简要的解释。

Because in the ATO's eyes, you basically have just made an action for a tax result is like the really short story of it.

你可以去谷歌搜索‘澳大利亚税务局的洗售’。

You can go Google ATO wash sale.

所以你得有一个合理的理由来证明这不是完全相同的东西。说实话，我从未遇到过这个问题，因为我投资七年了，感觉在六个月的滚动周期内，随着我不断学习，我想投资的东西变化很大。

So you'd have to have some kind of reasonable way to show that it's not the exact same thing, which if I'm gonna be perfectly honest, I've never had that problem because even after investing for seven years, I feel like over a six month rolling basis, the things I want to invest in tend to change a lot as I learn more.

对吧？

Right?

所以你们很多人可能和我一样，还处于投资的早期阶段。举个例子，当我刚开始的时候。

So a lot of you are probably like me, which is you're you're still early on in the investing journey and like, you know, when I started here's a good example.

当我刚开始债务循环投资时，我最初投资的是DHHF。

Like, when I started debt recycling, I originally started investing in DHHF.

但后来我想，我不想要一个全仓型ETF。

And then I was like, I don't wanna have an all in one ETF.

我更倾向于——我想，普通人很可能根本不想重新买入同样的东西，因为你可能会想稍作调整，而不是彻底改变。

I'd rather have it's So it's like, you'll I think there's just a high chance that a typical person will like not wanna rebuy the same thing anyway because you're probably going to wanna change it slightly, not dramatically.

也许你希望更集中或更分散投资，或者意识到自己过于关注某一方面，又或者像先锋基金下调了费用之类的情况。

Maybe you're gonna wanna consolidate it more or less or realize you're too focused on on this or that or maybe, you know, Vanguard dropped their fees or something like this.

所以我觉得这是一种非常有趣的方法，因为它能减轻很多压力。

So I just think that's a really interesting approach because then it takes away a lot of the stress.

它把决策推迟到你掌握所有信息的时候。

It defers the decision to a point where you have all of the information.

但总的来说，我同意戴夫的观点，即如果你能持续实现债务循环的现金流，长期收益肯定会远远超过短期内错失的机会成本。

But broadly, though, I would agree with Dave in the sense that, you know, the long term benefit if you can sustain cash flow of debt recycling, if you can, will vastly outweigh any lost opportunity cost over a short term period for sure.

我不建议你太纠结于：如果债务循环还要十个月才开始，那我就干脆别考虑了。

I wouldn't get too caught up in like, if debt recycling is ten months away, maybe I should just never consider it.

嗯，我没料到你会从这个角度来谈。

Well, I did not expect you to take it in that direction.

这其实非常有趣。

That's super interesting actually.

因为我是这样想的：机会成本，就像我之前提到的，然后你把它和等待十个月或十二个月所带来的永久性收益进行权衡——比如那笔2万美元贷款部分的利息，可能每年都能抵扣一千美元，永久有效。

Because the way I'm thinking about it is the opportunity cost like I mentioned before, and then you square that off with the permanent benefit of waiting the ten months or twelve months and then having that $20 loan portion, the interest on that, which is maybe a thousand bucks deductible forever.

这不是一个临时的好处。

That's not a temporary benefit.

这是一个永久的好处。

That's a permanent benefit.

所以你这么说很有趣，因为我不一定会把钱投入市场。

So it's interesting that you would say that because I would I would not put it in the market.

我会把钱留在抵消账户中，放弃那潜在的每月300美元的额外收益，以换取利息的永久可抵扣性。

I would keep it in the offset account and forego that potential, say, $300 of extra returns in exchange for the permanent deductibility of that interest.

我只是觉得，把钱投入市场，而你又希望或知道十个月后就要取出用于债务循环，这并不理想或不是最优选择，因为你可能存了20美元，但现在已经只值16美元了。

I just think it's not ideal or suboptimal to be putting money in the market that you hope or know that you're going to be taking out in ten months to debt recycle because you might have put in $20, but it's only worth $16.

这会让你感到恼火，因为你得等更久才能完成20美元的贷款分拆来循环债务，或者现在只有15美元了——这种状况比因为钱早点进入市场而错过一点上行收益更让我烦躁。

That annoys you because now you've got to wait longer to do your 20 loan split to recycle that or it's only $15 or something like just can't I just that would annoy me more than missing out on a little bit of upside by having the money in the market sooner.

我想制定一个计划，然后能够坚持执行。

Like, I I wanted to, like, have a plan and then be able to stick to it.

是的。

Yeah.

你能解释一下你提到的‘利息100%可抵扣’这部分为什么让人烦恼吗？

Can you unpack the annoying part about you said, like, a 100% of the interest being deductible or something like that.

我的意思是，不管怎样，只要你在十个月后进行债务重组之前，利息根本是不可抵扣的，对吧？我想澄清一下，也许这就是我们产生误解的地方。

Mean, isn't it just the case that none of the interest is deductible until you debt recycle it after ten months regardless of whether you so I think just to be clear, and maybe this is where we got ourselves confused.

当我说‘暂时投资’时，我的意思并不是用来还房贷，这样说你能明白吗？

It's like, when I say invest in the meantime, I mean like not against the home loan, if that makes sense.

是的。

Yeah.

你的意思是，与其进行债务重组，不如把这笔钱拿去投资，而不是先把钱还进贷款里，十个月后再进行2万的债务重组。

You're just saying that instead of doing the debt recycling, you're saying to invest that instead instead of putting that into the loan and then debt recycling 20 k after ten months.

你是说每个月投资2000块，十个月后取出这笔钱，用来还贷，然后再进行债务重组。

You're saying to invest the 2 k a month and then after ten months, basically take it out and then pay off that loan or whatever and then debt recycle it.

但我不同意这种做法。

So I would disagree with that.

对。

Yeah.

那你所说的利息是指什么？

So what do you mean by the interest?

你之前提到，你不想麻烦，只想让所有利息都能抵扣。

You made a comment about, like, you wouldn't wanna bother with you you just want it to be all deductible.

你指的是什么？

What what did you

什么意思？

mean by that?

我的意思是，我宁愿放弃把钱早点投入市场的机会成本，现在就让这笔钱放在抵消账户或贷款里。

What I meant was I would rather forego the opportunity cost of having the money in the market sooner, and I would just either have that money in the offset at the moment or in the loan.

十个月后，我可以把全部两万块进行债务循环，这样这两万美元的利息就能永久抵扣了。

And then after ten months, I can debt recycle the whole twenty grand, and then that interest on the $20 is deductible forever.

这样做有一种确定性，而如果我把钱投入市场而不是还贷款，那么十个月后它可能就不是两万了，我就没法操作了。

There's a certainty that comes with that versus if I'm putting the money in the market instead of the loan, then there's a potential that it's not $20 in ten months time, and I can't do that.

这会让我很烦。

That's gonna annoy me.

然后如果我不得不坚持九个月或十个月

And then if I do have to into nine or months

可能会因为市场崩盘之类的情况延长到十六个月。

it could turn into sixteen months because of crash or something like that.

是的。

Yeah.

这很有道理。

That makes a lot of sense.

我觉得这是个非常好的观点。

I think that's a really good point.

我认为抵消账户的另一个好处是它具有可预测性。

I think the other benefit of the offset is it's just predictable.

我觉得我们之前在其他几期节目中也讨论过这一点。

And I think some people we've talked about this in other episodes too.

有些人对正面和负面情绪的反应会有所不同。

It's like some people are gonna respond differently to positive and negative emotion.

对吧？

Right?

所以对某些人来说，看着市场上涨而自己的资金却停留在抵消账户中，会比市场下跌时因资金在抵消账户中而感到的喜悦更让他们不安。

So it's like for some people watching the market go up whilst they're just in offset will upset them more than the joy that they'll feel having money in offset whilst the market goes down.

不同的人对这种情况的反应也会不同。

And different type of people will respond to that differently.

我认为戴夫的观点非常重要，那就是，你知道的，那20美元可能并不等于20美元，这确实是个值得认真考虑的难题。

I think Dave's point is really important about like, you know, that $20 might not be $20, which is like definitely a real pickle to consider.

不过，是的，我想我可能还是会把钱留在市场里。

Though, yeah, I think I'd still probably have the money in the market.

我觉得这很难，因为我已经下定决心要投资了，如果仅仅因为想通过税务优化来安排资金就不投资，我会感觉就像我已经答应去参加派对，却没去一样。

I think it's hard because I feel like I've committed to investing and I feel like to not invest just because I'm trying to like, structure things in a way that's advantageous for tax would would feel like I I've already committed to going to the party and I'm not at it.

这会让我感到痛苦。

And it would just hurt me.

我会很兴奋地想要投资，却不得不克制自己，眼睁睁看着一切发生，这真的会让我很难受。

Like, it would hurt me being so excited to invest and then having to restrain myself and watch stuff happen.

不过我想指出的是，如果我们的听众还没意识到的话，假设你不会把投资卖出、还清贷款，然后再以非wash sale的方式买入其他东西，那么从表现角度来看，你其实不需要担心市场下跌，因为理论上你会买回一个不同的投资组合，假设你的投资组合整体价格变动趋势一致。

I I think to point out though, if if it's not obvious to our listeners, assuming you're not gonna, like, sell it out, pay off your loan, and then buy something else in a way that's not a wash sale, you don't really need to worry about it going down from a performance standpoint because in theory, you'll be buying back a different portfolio, assuming your portfolio changes at the same price broadly.

所以，市场波动其实并不是问题所在。

So, you know, it's like market movements aren't the concern.

真正关键的还是戴夫提到的那一点。

It's more just around Dave's point.

但确实是，因为那样一来，你就失去了同等的抵扣额度。

But it is though because then you're because then you don't have the same deductibility.

抵扣额度变少了，这挺烦人的。

You have less deductibility, which is annoying.

对吧？

Right?

因为你无法再对20美元进行债务循环利用，你只能对15美元进行债务循环。

Because you don't have the you can't debt recycle $20, you can only debt recycle $15.

是的。

Yes.

正确。

Correct.

对。

Yeah.

正如戴夫所说，你确实承担了这种风险，他提出的观点非常好。

To to Dave's point, it's like you are, and it's a great point he makes is that you are taking on that risk.

我的意思是，他说你只能扣除15美元之类的，但我更觉得，与其花十个月存够20美元，普通人通常会多等一段时间，继续储蓄。

I mean, he says, like, that you can only deduct $15 or whatever, but I I see it more as, like, instead of it being ten months to save that $20, you I think a typical person would just wait longer and keep saving.

这只会延迟时间，而讽刺的是，这反而可能引发其他问题。

And it would it would probably just like delay the time, which ironically can create other problems.

对吧？

Right?

你本来已经开始投资了，因为不想错过机会。

Like you already started investing because you didn't wanna miss out on something.

但现在十个月过去了，我们遭遇了严重的经济衰退，你不得不再工作四个月，才能在不增加大量行政负担的情况下参与债务循环。

And now suddenly ten months in, we've had a really bad recession, and you have to work for another four months until you can join the debt recycling party without a lot of admin overhead and and deal with that.

如果你觉得整个事情太复杂了，人们还可以选择接受聘请会计师来处理按比例扣除的问题，这也会花一些钱。

The other thing people could do as well if you feel like the whole thing is too overwhelming is you could just you could just accept that you're gonna spend some money on an accountant to do the prorated deductibility as well.

我有几个朋友就是这样做的，他们直接从贷款开始进行债务循环，把钱存进一个账户里。

I have a couple of friends that do this, they just they just started debt recycling straight from the loan and they just throw it in an account.

当然，这样做是需要花钱的。

And then obviously, that's going to cost money.

但也许为了安心和操作简便，这笔钱是值得花的。

But perhaps the money for peace of mind of the ease of it is worth it.

因为这样一来，你就不用整天担心自己有没有错失任何机会成本。

Because then you're not sitting around being like, have I lost any opportunity costs?

有没有漏掉任何可抵扣的部分？

Am I missing out on any deductibility?

所有东西都一目了然，直接处理好了。

It's just all straight there.

所以，这也值得和你的会计师聊聊。

So that'd be a worthwhile thing to talk to your accountant too.

戴夫和我可能不太常聊这些，因为通过阅读资料，我们觉得管理这些事情其实挺容易的。

Something Dave and I probably don't spend a lot of time talking about just on account of, we probably find a lot of managing a lot of these things pretty easy just by reading up on it.

所以这通常不是我们的第一选择。

So it's not kind of our first point of call.

你提到的这一点很好。

That's a good point you mentioned there.

另一种可能的结构方式是，根据你具体的贷款情况、借款能力和其他条件，你或许可以现在新申请一笔2万美元的贷款。

The the other way you could structure it potentially is if it's possible regarding your specific loan and your specific borrowing power and situation and all that, you could potentially create a new $20,000 loan now.

然后每攒到2000美元，你就从这笔新贷款中取出2000美元进行投资。

And then as you save each $2,000, you take out $2,000 from that new loan and invest it.

这样，你的净债务水平始终保持不变。

So then the net debt level is always the same.

当然，你也可以立即将这2万美元投入市场。

Of course, could put the $20 in the market immediately.

但那是另一种不同的情况。

That's a different kind of situation.

但这样，你同时实现了定期定额投资和债务循环，每月储蓄多少就循环多少。

But in this way, you're able to dollar cost average at the same time debt recycling the same amount as you're saving each month.

所以，如果你的借款能力允许，你就可以直接申请一笔新的2万美元贷款。

So you would just basically create a new $20,000 loan if your borrowing power and all that would allow for that.

这真是个高智商的主意啊，戴夫。

That's a real big brain move there, Dave.

这非常有趣。

That's very interesting.

所以，这种情况通常发生在有人刚买了一样东西，他们要么已经还清了房屋的权益，要么房价上涨了，重新评估后获得了新的贷款，可以立即或逐步进行循环利用，同时继续储蓄，这样他们就能享受到其中的好处。

So this is only in a case where I mean, the most common case for this is that someone's bought something not just a moment ago, and they're they've either paid off the equity in the home or their price has gone up and they revalued it and they were able to get like a new loan issued, which they can recycle immediately or slowly, whatever works for them whilst actually saving up and then they feel like they've got the benefit of it.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

因为他们可以每次用两千块来操作。

Because they can do it with two grand at a time.

只要他们最初创建了这2万美元，就可以逐步平均投入资金，而他们的债务水平基本保持不变。

Like as long as they create that 20 k initially, then they can just average the money in and then their debt level basically stays the same.

因为你只对已提取的贷款部分支付利息，净债务基本上保持不变。

Because you're only gonna be paying interest on what you've drawn down on the loan and your net debt's basically the same.

希望这能说得通。

Hopefully that makes sense.

这非常有道理。

That makes a lot of sense.

我知道我们留着你总有原因，每周我都会想起这一点。

I know we keep you around for something and I'm reminded of that every week.

我不会告诉你们他在播客外怎么评价我的，各位。

I won't tell you what he says about me off the podcast, guys.

他嘴里的我可没在这档节目里表现得这么好。

It's not as nice as the character you see here on the show.

这真是太棒了。

That is pretty great.

不过，这是个很好的观点。

That's a that's a good point, though.

我认为根据我的经验，很少有人买了房子后立即就开始进行债务循环利用。

And I think a lot of people my experience is there's not a lot of people out there who've bought homes and then immediate like, and immediately trying to debt recycle.

通常情况都挺直接的。

It's usually a pretty straightforward story.

有人买了房子，收入不错，很快就把钱存入抵消账户，然后意识到自己投资得不够多。

Someone buys a place, they have good income, they start piling money into offset really quickly, they realize they're not investing as much as they'd like.

他们权衡利弊后，发现债务循环利用是一个有趣的折中方案。

They look at the trade off, they realize debt recycling is an interesting compromise.

然后就是关于如何操作的具体问题，这正是听众向我们提出的疑问。

And then it's the the question about the mechanics of how to do so, which is essentially what the listener has come to us with here.

所以这是非常有趣的内容。

So it's very interesting stuff.

好的。

Alright.

下一个问题是，如何改变一个已经进行债务循环的投资？

The next one is around how would you go about changing an investment that's debt recycled?

你之前其实已经提到过这一点，海登，但让我们再快速回顾一下。

And you did basically touch on this earlier, Hayden, but if I just we'll just do another quick overview of this.

所以听众的问题是，假设你有一笔分拆贷款，已经买了VGS，但现在想投资其他东西。

So the listener question is, say you have a loan split, you've bought VGS, but now you want to invest in something else.

你是先卖出原来的股票，还清对应的贷款分拆，然后提取资金再购买新的股票吗？

Do you sell the original shares, pay off the loan split, and then withdraw and buy the new shares?

我觉得我整体的逻辑是对的，被审计的风险很低，但我还是想严格按照规定来操作。

I feel like I've got the overall logic right and it's a very low risk of getting audited, but I still really wanna do things by the book.

戴夫，我理解得对吗？你的意思是，如果你买了VGS，现在想投资别的，问题是：我能不能直接在经纪平台卖出VGS，然后买入别的东西？

Am I understanding this question right, Dave, in that if you bought VGS and you now wanna invest in something else, is the question, can I just sell VGS on my brokerage app and buy something else?

还是必须先卖出，还清贷款，再重新提取资金，然后才买新的东西？

Or do I have to sell it, pay off the loan, redraw it and then buy something else?

是的。

Yeah.

他们本质上是想知道正确的方法，以保持最初用于购买第一笔股票（即VGS）的贷款的可抵扣性。

They're basically wanting to know the right way to do it to maintain that deductibility of the loan that they used originally to buy the first shares, which in this case was VGS.

那么，你该如何操作，才能在更换投资的同时不破坏债务的可抵扣性呢？

So how would you do that in such a way that you can change the investment without destroying the deductibility of the debt?

他们只是想确认自己脑海中的想法是否正确：即卖出股票，偿还最初用于购买的贷款，然后提取资金后再购买新的股票。

They're just trying to confirm whether what they have in mind, which is to sell the shares, pay off the loan they used originally and then withdraw the money before buying the new shares if that's the correct way to go about it.

据我理解，这确实是正确的做法。

And as far as I understand it, that is the correct way to go about it.

如果你只是卖出股票，然后立即买入其他东西，那么你所使用的债务，我认为就不再具有可抵扣性了，因为你不再持有当初用这笔债务购买的资产。

If you were just to sell the shares and then buy something else immediately, then the debt you've used, I would say, is no longer deductible because you no longer own the asset that was purchased with that original debt.

这就像你有一处房产，你用这笔房产作为抵押来为另一处房产支付首付款，但后来你卖掉了投资性房产，收到了款项，然后又去买了别的东西。

It's like if you had a property and the property was sold and then you'd borrow it against your house for the deposit of that property or something, but then you sell the investment property later and then you receive the money and then you go and buy something else.

你最初使用的贷款，抱歉。

The original loan you used Sorry.

你用自己房屋作为抵押借来的钱，用于支付投资性房产的首付款，这笔借款将不再具有可抵扣性，因为你用这笔钱所购买的资产已经被卖掉了。

The borrowed money against your own home to use as the deposit for the investment property would not be deductible because what you used the money for has now been sold.

所以你必须重新走一遍流程：偿还这部分债务，然后再重新借款或透支资金来购买新的资产。

So you would have to basically go through the process again of repaying down that debt and then redrawing or reborrowing the money to then buy a new asset.

因为每次你偿还贷款或还清贷款后再重新借款或透支时，这笔资金在税务局眼中就变成了新的借款，如果你用这笔钱购买的是能产生收入的资产，那么利息就可以再次抵扣。

Because every time you pay down the loan or pay off the loan and then borrow the money back out again or redraw the money, then that becomes fresh borrowings in the eyes of the ATO, which then if you buy obviously an income producing asset, then that will be deductible once again.

Haim，你也是这么理解的吗？

Is that how you understand it as well, Haim?

我觉得我对这个问题的理解还不够深入，没法给出答案。

I don't feel like I have enough of an understanding to give an answer.

我觉得你所说的很有道理。

I think what you say makes sense.

我觉得，如果我不是专业人士，而且这绝对不是建议，但假如让我凭直觉来判断，我会觉得有一些明显的问题。

I feel like if I wasn't and, you know, this is not advice by any stretch, but if I had to just approach intuitively, I'd say there's some obvious things.

比如，如果你卖出一个ETF并打算买入另一个ETF，首先你肯定不希望这笔钱在经纪商的应用里长期以现金形式闲置，因为那样你就等于在为一个非收益性资产申请抵扣。

Like, if you sell an ETF and you're gonna buy another ETF, you probably don't want that sitting around in cash in a brokerage app for a while, firstly, because then you basically got a non income producing asset that you're claiming as deductible.

所以，最重要的一点，对我来说这绝对是不可取的。

So first and foremost, that's probably a big no for me.