黄金、黄金，还是黄金——金价涨势能否持续？

香草冰淇淋与GlobalX新推出的澳大利亚300 ETF有何共同点？它们都是经典的核心风味，作为坚实基础，可搭配更刺激的配料或投资。隆重推出300 ETF，一键投资ASX上市公司前300强。这正是强化您投资组合核心的经典香草型投资。

What do vanilla ice cream and GlobalX's new Australia 300 ETF have in common? They're both classic core flavors, working as a solid foundation for more exciting toppings or investments. Introducing a 300. Access the top 300 ASX listed companies in one ETF. Just a classic vanilla investment to strengthen the core of your portfolio.

年费仅0.04%，是覆盖300家而非通常200家公司的最低成本ETF。详情请访问globalxetfs.com.au。AFSL 466778。投资有风险，回报不保证。请参阅相关产品披露声明和目标市场确定文件。

At a competitive fee of just 0.04% per annum, it's the lowest cost ETF serving up 300 companies instead of the usual 200. Visit globalxetfs.com.au to learn more. AFSL 46677eight. Investing involves risk, and returns are not guaranteed. Refer to the relevant PDS and TMD.

欢迎收听本期播客。在进入正题前，我要特别播报赞助商Termplus的最新动态。您可能之前听过Termplus团队的介绍。2025年10月整月（准确说是至2025年10月31日），RASK听众若选择通过Termplus投资超过3万澳元，即可获得300澳元奖金，这是他们正在进行的限时优惠。

Welcome to this episode of the podcast. Before we get into it, I wanna give you a special update from one of our sponsors. That's Termplus. You've probably heard some of the team from Termplus on the podcast before. But for the month of October 2025 until thirty one October twenty twenty five, to be precise, RASK listeners who choose to invest their money with term plus can get a $300 bonus as part of an offer they're running for anyone that invests more than $30,000.

您懂的规矩。投资前务必确认产品适合自己。您可通过播客播放器内链接或访问term+.com.au了解优惠详情及参与方式。现在进入正题。嘿，先插播一条简讯。

And you know the drill. Always make sure the investment is right for you before investing, but you can follow the link in your podcast player or head to term+.com.au to learn more about what's on offer and how to get involved. Now let's get into the episode. Hey there. Here's a quick note.

本播客仅提供一般性财务建议。这意味着它并不针对您的个人需求、目标或目的，因此在与您的财务顾问沟通前，请勿依据此信息采取行动。您可以在节目备注中找到完整的披露声明、免责条款以及金融服务指南的链接。

This podcast contains general financial advice only. That means it's not specific to you, your needs, goals, or objectives, so don't act on the information until you've spoken with your financial adviser. You'll find our full disclosure, disclaimer, and link to our financial services guide in the show notes.

马克，欢迎回来。欧文，再次感谢邀请我。

Mark, welcome back. Thanks for having me again, Owen.

老兄，聊天总是件愉快的事，总是很愉快。我想用一种非常不同的方式开始这次对话。而且我希望你直言不讳，如果有必要的话。尽管犀利些。

It's always good to chat, mate. Always good to chat. I'd like to start this conversation off in a very different way. And I would like you to be brutally honest, if you must. Be brutal.

好的。你一直在关注澳大利亚ETF领域的动态，对行业格局了如指掌。你掌握的细节比我所知的任何人都更详尽。我知道你也关注我们的动向。所以我很好奇，你是否看过RASK的投资组合？会给出怎样的评价？

That's fine. You follow what's happening in the Australian ETF landscape in who's who in the zoo. You know exactly what's happening in more detail than anyone I know. And I know that you follow what we do. So I am curious if you've looked at our portfolios at RASK, what your critiques would be?

说实话，我特别喜欢这个问题。是的，我经常研究投资组合。之前在Stockspot时，我们就经常做独立组合评审。

I I love this question, to be honest. Yeah. I mean, I look at portfolios a lot. Yeah. When I was back at Stockspot, we always did independent reviews of portfolios.

即便现在，也有很多客户带着不同组合来找我们。我热衷这类分析。而且我一直很推崇你们的业务模式和理念。老实说，我确实研究过你们的组合——毕竟我长期关注你和你们的社群。但说实话，可挑剔的地方不多。

Even now, a lot of clients coming to us with different portfolios. I love this type of stuff. And, you know, I've been a big advocate of your business and what you're trying to do. And to be honest, I I was looking at the portfolios because I've been following you and your community for a long time. There's not much, to be honest.

我喜欢深入剖析细节。虽然有几个小建议，但我很认同你们控制成本、投资宽基分散ETF、替代其他投资工具的理念，以及系统化的再平衡和资产配置策略。主要两点商榷意见是——虽然你们对美国市场和固定收益的配置很好——但关于其他防御性资产类型的选择。

And I like going into the nitty gritty of some things. And there's there's a couple points I I will raise, but I like philosophy around keeping your costs low, investing in broad based diversified ETFs, using them instead of other investment vehicles as well, and having a very structured approach to rebalancing and your overall asset allocation. The two contentions I probably would have because I like how there's exposure to, like, you've got The US market focus. You've got your fixed income focus. But the two I would say, and we'll get into in this topic, is just around the other types of defensive assets out there.

其一是黄金。我们希望看到组合配置黄金，稍后可以深入讨论。我注意到很多管理人会把部分固收仓位换成黄金——毕竟黄金本质上像零息债券，还能带来分散化收益。这是第一个建议。

One being gold. We'd love to see that in the portfolios, and I know we'll probably have a good chat about the merits of adding gold to your portfolios. But I've seen a lot of managers allocate a bit of their fixed income exposure to gold Yeah. Because it trades like a zero coupon bond anyway, and there's a lot of diversification benefits to have in a portfolio by adding gold. So that'd be the one critique.

嗯。

Mhmm.

另一点是关于那个更侧重收益的'火星组合'。市场上有些ETF专门针对特定收益领域。虽然这么说有点自夸，但我们的ZYU基金优势在于确保不会出现偏离基准的行业集中风险。如果通过高收益产品进行行业倾斜配置，这点需要特别注意。

And probably the other one is I know that there's a bit more of a I think it's a Martian portfolio, which is a bit more income focused. Mhmm. And I know that there's a couple of ETFs out there that play certain income areas. I guess the advantage and I'm not tooting my own horn too much over here, but the good thing about, you know, our fund, which is ZYU, is it does have a bit of a it doesn't it makes sure that the fund doesn't have any large sector positions that varies away from the benchmark. So if you are taking certain sector tilts based on going into high yield product, just be wary of that.

主要就是这两点。如果你想增加其他类型的固定收益敞口，无论是浮动利率票据还是次级债，可以考虑更多元化的银行信贷产品。除此之外，欧文，我觉得你已经掌握核心要点了。

Those would be the two things. And and then if you are looking to add a bit more other types of fixed income exposure, whether it be floating rate notes or whether it be subordinated debt, you can look at a bit more of a diversified banking credit product. But besides that, Owen, I think you've got the nuts and bolt nailed pretty well.

非常感谢您。为了听众着想，虽然我和马克经常私下交流——这很棒——但我确实经常给您发一堆消息，为此我表示歉意。那些都是我的一些...姑且称之为'经过思考的突发奇想'，比如'您觉得这个想法怎么样'，而您总会给出建设性意见。

Well, thank you, sir. And for people's benefit, obviously, Mark and I get to chat a bit, and it's it's great. But I do just send you, like, a bunch of and I do apologize about that. But I send you some, like I have these, like, let's call them somewhat educated brain farts about, hey, what do you think of this idea? And you're like, well, maybe this thing.

我真的很感激您作为我的参谋。我知道您在Stockspot和现在GlobalX的资历非常深厚，在这个行业拥有极其专业的知识储备。布雷特，虽然不想过多打扰您，但这种交流是双向的。有趣的是，我们今天会详细讨论黄金。对于不熟悉ZYRU的听众，这是GlobalX标普ASX200高股息ETF。

And I really appreciate you as a sounding board. I know your experience with Stockspot and obviously here at GlobalX is, like, significant, and you've got a depth of knowledge that is really, really special in this industry, mate. So not to bother you, Brett, too much, but it it goes both ways. Interestingly, we will talk we we will talk at length about gold today. Interestingly, can so for ZYRU, for people that aren't familiar, this is the GlobalX S and P ASX 200 high dividend ETF.

我昨天还在马丁广场站着录了期视频讲这个。说实话我完全没想到您会提到这只ETF，但很高兴您提到了。这只ETF会控制行业敞口对吧？

I did a video on this yesterday just standing in Martin Place, actually. This ETF that we we would obviously didn't I didn't even think that you'd bring this ETF up, but I'm glad you did. So this ETF controls for sector exposures?

是的。它会确保行业权重与基准指数的偏差不超过10%绝对值。比如金融股占基准指数30%，这个ETF就会控制在20%-40%之间。这样能中和行业配置偏差，对于希望紧密跟踪ASX200指数的人来说很实用。

Yes. It does. It makes sure that it doesn't deviate in terms of having a 10% absolute weight from, let's say, your you know, the financials make up 30% of the broader index. This will make sure it doesn't go above 40% or below 20%. So it kind of neutralizes the the sector positioning, which is quite handy for people who wanna maintain a bit more of a tighter tracking error to the broader ASX two hundred.

否则组合可能会全仓材料股和金融股——这未必是高股息组合的理想配置。当然如果你纯粹追求股息率，或许正合你意。但有时需要控制股息率，采用更具前瞻性的股息率筛选方法。

Otherwise, you know, it might just own all materials and all financials. And that's maybe not exactly what you want within a high dividend yielding portfolio. If you are chasing yield, of course, like, maybe you do want that, but sometimes you may wanna control for yield. You may wanna apply a bit more of a forward looking dividend yield approach. Yeah.

没错。或者你可能想过滤掉那些股价持续下跌的公司。这只ETF就做了这三件事，为想要构建收益组合的投资者提供了不错的价值主张——当前股息率约5.5%。鉴于ASX200股息率已跌至近年低点，对需要增加收益的投资者可能很有吸引力。

Yeah. Or you might wanna apply a bit more of a filter that kind of removes companies that have experienced negative price declines. So that's what this ETF does. Does those three things, and it makes it a a pretty good value proposition for people looking to build some income in their portfolios, yielding around about five and a half percent at the moment. So with the ASX 200 dividend yield falling to some of the lowest it's been in a few years, could be interesting for people to add just a bit of income.

要知道，我们正在录制这段内容。很快我们就能看到RBA利率决议的影响，以及这对其他资产类别意味着什么。所以对于关注收益的投资者来说，ZYU可能会相当有趣。

You know, we're recording this. We'll soon see what happens with an RBA rate decision, what that means for other asset classes. So for investors looking at income, ZYU could be quite interesting.

管理费是0.24%，用金融术语说就是24个基点。他们最近在投资理念上做了些微调整，对吧？

Management fee of 0.24% or 24 basis points if you're in finance lingo. This recently had a slight tweak in their philosophy, didn't it?

是的，那是几年前的事了。关于ETF的一个特点是，作为产品和投资策略团队的一员，我们持续不断地审查ETF，确保方法论有效，流程也正确。我们想做的就是进一步简化流程，并希望产品能更紧密跟踪ASX200指数。

Yeah. It was a few years ago. So one thing about ETFs is we're constantly, you know, being part of the product and investment strategy team. We're reviewing ETFs, making sure the methodology works, making sure it's the right process as well. And one thing we wanted to do was just simplify the process a little bit more, and we wanted to have something that also had that tighter tracking area to the ASX two hundred.

所以几年前我们确实做了调整。原先会考虑回购、自由现金流等因素，但我们认为纯粹关注前瞻性股息收益率更有意义，同时加入行业配置上限和价格动量筛选。基于投资者反馈——要知道我们很少做出变动——但如果有足够需求且从投资研究角度看合理，我们就会实施调整，并始终告知投资者。

So, yeah, we did tweak it a few years ago. Before was looking at other things like buybacks, free cash flow, but we just said it'd make a lot more sense just to focus purely on the forward looking dividend yield, apply some sector caps to it as well, and also have that price momentum filter as well. Yeah. So on the back of feedback from investors, you know, we do we don't make changes very often, but if there is enough appetite and we see merit in it from an investment research perspective, we'll go ahead and do that, and we'll always notify investors if that's the case.

确实。我提起这事是因为记得这个调整正好发生在我完成股息ETF全面评估之后，看来我需要重新做一次分析了。

Yeah. Yeah. For sure. No. The reason I bring that up is I remember because this happened just after I did this broad review of dividend ETFs, and I think I need to do it again.

因为我记得这只ETF调整时，很惊讶它没有获得更多投资者支持。目前管理规模是7500万，未来几年完全有可能大幅增长。

Because this ETF I remember when the change was made, was like, I was surprised that it hadn't had more investor support. Like, it's got 75,000,000 invested now, six, but it could have a lot more over the next couple of years.

我同意。未来几年收益型产品将成为重要焦点。

I agree. I think income's gonna be a big focus over the next couple of years.

是啊，有意思。好吧，我之前不知道这事。其实我知道，但当时就是需要那份工作。

Yeah. Interesting. Okay. I did not know about that. So well, I did know about it, but I just needed that job.

所以谢谢你。

So thank you for that.

不客气。

No problem.

那我们来谈谈黄金，这是另一件事。你知道，我过去做过一些现在后悔的事。不，我是认真的。我没有配置黄金——其实我配置过又撤了，因为当时觉得利率低、经济稳定。

So we are gonna talk about gold, which is the other thing. Now, as you know, I've done some things in the past, which I regret. No. I'm serious. I have not allocated to gold, which well, I I allocated to gold and then I removed it because I thought interest rates are low, economic stability.

结果固定收益证券虽然稳定但表现不佳，而黄金 meanwhile 涨了35%。对，看着这个真是让我很沮丧。我觉得是因为我过去像个死忠的巴菲特信徒，总觉得黄金不产生收益。

Subsequently, fixed income securities while being stable have not delivered, and meanwhile, has gone up 35%. Yep. So that has been very frustrating for me to watch. And I think it's because I was like a dyed in the wool Buffett disciple. I was kind of like, you know, doesn't pay income.

就像巴菲特那句名言——你应该知道——大意是说多年前买黄金的人现在还是那些黄金，而他投资了可口可乐这些。所以我当时想，投资企业才符合经济逻辑。我这个想法哪里出错了？大家这种观点错在哪里？

Like, the old Buffett line, which you would know is something on the lines of people who bought gold all those years ago still have the same gold, whereas he's, like, invested in Coca Cola and all these things. So I was kind of like, well, businesses make economic, like, sense. Where did where do I go wrong with that? Where does everyone go wrong with that view?

这未必是错误观点。它确实有道理——你当然想持有能产生可估值现金流的生息资产。对吧？用股息贴现模型或现金流模型就能估算价值。所以像黄金这种有形资产反而很难用基本面估值，因为它完全取决于供需关系。

It's not necessarily that it's a it's a wrong view. It does make sense. You wanna own productive assets that generate cash flows that you can value. Right? So when you run a basic dividend discount model or a basic cash flow model, you can see what something is worth, Which is why for something that's still tangible like gold, it's quite hard to actually fundamentally value it because it's all about supply and demand.

所以我认为很多尚未配置黄金的投资者——欧文，你并非个例。要知道，许多养老基金也未配置黄金。他们和你看法类似，认为这是不产生现金流的非生产性资产，只是躺在金库里毫无作为，还需支付储存成本，本质上是在赌价格会上涨。

So I think a lot of investors who haven't haven't allocated to gold, and you're not not the only one, Owen. You know, there's there's been a lot of super funds that don't allocate to gold. They see it as similar to you, an unproductive asset that doesn't generate any cash flow. It just sits there in a vault, does nothing. You pay storage costs, and, you know, you're kind of betting that the price is gonna go up.

我们稍后可能会讨论增长型与防御型资产的辩论。但对我而言，黄金与我们之前讨论的固定收益资产非常相似——它的交易特性类似零息债券。关键点在于，尽管你提到利率上升通常对黄金不利，但近年来金价仍持续上涨，最主要原因是经济不确定性激增。

And we'll probably get into the debate about the whole growth versus defensive side of things. But for me, gold is very similar to what we were talking about before on the fixed income side. It does trade like a zero coupon bond. And importantly, why why it has gone up, particularly over the last few years, is even though you were mentioning that, you know, rates were rates were rising, which is naturally quite bad for gold, you do have other drivers of gold. And one of the biggest things that the reason gold's been going up a hell of a lot over the last couple years is there's just been so much economic uncertainty.

当经济存在不确定性或通胀压力时，资金自然会大规模涌入黄金这类资产类别，因其具有跨越多个市场周期（我们说的是数十年维度）的财富保值历史。这绝非无限增值的资产，但当前还叠加了央行购金需求。世界黄金协会有份精彩研究报告（听众可自行查阅）详细阐述了这一点。

And when there is economic uncertainty, when there's inflationary pressures, you naturally get this massive interest or influx into an asset class like gold because it has a long term history of preserving wealth over multiple market cycles. We're talking multiple decades over here. It's not like an infinite asset class at all. And it's not just that, but you're getting a lot of central bank demand as well. And there's a great there's a great research, if your listeners wanna look into it, that the World Gold Council do.

这份报告名为GRAM（具体全称我记不清了），即黄金归因模型。它系统分析了影响金价的所有因素——究竟是利率变动？

It's called the I think it's called GRAM. It's the gold I don't know the exact acronym for it, but it pretty much looks at all the attribution of what goes into it. I think it's a gold attribution model and gold return attribution model, GRAM. And it goes through all these different factors on what is making up the gold price or why is gold moved. Is it around interest rates?

因为金价的两大驱动因素实际上是美元和实际利率。但近期我们发现金价与这些指标的传统关联被打破：美元走强时金价持续上涨，收益率上升时金价同样攀升。欧文，不知道你是否清楚——如果要你猜哪家央行购金量最大？

Because the two biggest, I guess, drivers of gold prices are the US dollar and real rates. And we've actually seen the gold relationship broke with some of them because gold's the US dollar's been rallying. Gold's kept going up, and we've seen yields go up. Gold's also been going up. And I'm not sure if you know, Owen, in terms of if I had to say to you, who is the central bank that has purchased the most amount of gold?

你觉得会是谁？

Who would you say it would be?

呃...我猜是中国。

Well, I I I'm gonna guess and say China.

中国通常名列前茅。我认为他们曾位居前五。实际上是波兰——一家欧洲央行希望将其20%的储备转为黄金。我们看到许多新兴市场国家因担忧关税战争及其对美元的影响，正在增持黄金储备，这推动了大量需求。

China is normally up there. I think they were in their top five. It was actually Poland. They were a central bank bank in Europe who want 20% of their reserves to be in gold. And you're seeing a lot of demand, particularly from emerging market countries who are worried about tariff wars, what it means for the US dollar, they and are building up their reserves, and that's been driving a lot of demand.

因此我们已连续三年见证各国央行每年至少购入千吨黄金，且十五年来始终保持净买入状态。回到您的问题，我认为您未必判断失误，只是驱动因素已大不相同。影响黄金走势的并非单一或双因素，而是多重变量共同作用，甚至包括流入ETF的资金。

So we've seen three successive years of central banks purchasing at least a thousand tons every year, and they've been net buyers for fifteen years. So back to your question, I don't think you necessarily got it wrong. I just think some of the drivers are very different. It's not just one thing or two things that contribute to gold. There's a range of different factors, and we've even seen some flows coming into ETFs.

黄金ETF在2013年遭遇资金外流。2014年澳大利亚黄金ETF约流入300（单位待确认）。如今年初记录显示，已有约1.5亿资金注入黄金ETF。我认为今年黄金可能再创佳绩——虽然价格逼近3000技术关口，但这贵金属仍具备强劲上涨动能。

Gold ETFs had outflows in 2013. 2014, there was about 300 that came into gold ETFs in Australia, And now we're recording this at the start of the year. There's already been about a 150,000,000 gone into gold ETFs. So I think it could be another good year for gold. I mean, it is trading close to that 3,000 technical level, but there's still a lot of tailwinds behind the precious yellow metal.

有意思。确实，世界黄金协会（你提到的Gram）提供投资组合模拟器、收益归因模型和黄金估值工具。

Interesting. Yeah. This gold World Gold Council, you were right. The the Gram, but they have portfolio simulators, the return attribution model, gold valuation.

我们为不熟悉黄金的投资者准备了优质工具，指导其配置组合——稍后肯定会讨论组合构建。作为澳洲最大黄金ETF发行方，我们坚信更多客户应增持黄金。正如先前讨论养老基金时所言，他们过度追捧私募股权、信贷等非流动性资产，而黄金恰恰可作为组合中的流动性替代选择。

There's some really great tools there for investors who are not familiar with gold, how to incorporate in a portfolio, and we'll talk about portfolio construction in in a little bit, I'm sure. But, yeah, really good resource, and we've got a lot of you know, being the biggest gold ETF in in Australia, we've got a lot of conviction that more clients should be allocating towards gold because I think most as we talked about super funds before, we talked to their obsession with illiquid assets like private assets, private equity, private credit. I think a lot can look at gold as a liquid alternative in their portfolio.

这很有趣，让我想起多年前与Stocksport克里斯讨论黄金在组合中的配置比例及作用，当时就令我印象深刻。不过观众提出了类似疑问：既然大众熟悉黄金ETF，能否阐述选择ETF的理由？

It's really interesting because I remember this is with Chris from Stocksport. We spoke years ago about how much gold could be in a portfolio, the role that it could play. And that was really, really interesting to me at the time. But I've got a question that came from the community similar to that in just a moment. So a lot of people are familiar with gold ETFs, but maybe you can make the case for, like, why ETFs?

嗯。毕竟现在仍有很多人直接购买实物黄金对吧？

Mhmm. Like, a lot of people still buy physical gold there. Right?

是的。你可以去悉尼的Martin Place当地ABC Bullion购买实物黄金并自行储存，如果你想的话。不过你需要处理存储、保险等问题，还得记录这块金条或任何形式的黄金。但确实有人想要实物金币或金条。不过我认为很多人更倾向于ETF的便利性，特别是构建投资组合时。

Yeah. You can go up and record this in Sydney up to Martin Place to the local ABC bullion and purchase physical gold if you want and store it yourself. Again, you have to deal with the issues around storage, insurance, having to pretty much log this bar of gold or whatever it is. But there's still is demand for people who wanna have physical coins, physical bars of gold. But I think a lot of people just want the convenience of an ETF wrapper, especially for those implementing their portfolios.

想象一下用藏在床底下或卧室保险柜里的实物黄金来调整资产配置。ETF让这一切变得简单多了。虽然通过ETF持有黄金需要支付费用，但相比机构级托管、保险保障以及流动性优势，这点成本微不足道，我认为非常值得。

Imagine rebalancing with physical gold in a vault in your bed or under your bedroom or something like that. Yeah. ETFs just make it so much easier. So even though you'd pay a fee for holding the gold through an ETF wrapper, I think it's a very small cost to pay for institutional grade custody, having the insurance as well, and making sure that it's done in a liquid wrapper. I think it's worth it.

没错，这是可交易的。这是观众提出的问题，当然我们只是泛泛而谈。

Yes. It's tradable. Yeah. So this is a question from the audience. Obviously, we're only speaking generally here, of course.

这是不久前收到关于黄金的问题，提问者有个有趣的名字叫'Deremyth Dairy Quite Contrarian'。他们说：关于黄金，似乎有充分理由将其归类为成长型资产，也有充分理由视作防御型资产——编者注：显然这取决于你的配置方式。

But this was a this was a question about gold that we received not too long ago, which is from a funny name, Deremyth Dairy Quite Contrarian. That's a that's a name mark. So they said, I have a question about gold. It seems a strong case can be made to classify it as a growth asset, and a strong case can be made to classify it as a defensive asset. And editors note, obviously, this is so, you you know, you you can that's how you would allocate to it.

具体取决于你在投资组合中配置的比例和位置等。他们接着说：我很想知道你们认为黄金的定位及其在组合中应扮演的角色。问题结束。

Like, that depends on how much you put in at what part part of your portfolio and so on. They go on to say, I would love to know I'd love to hear your thoughts on where you think it sits and what what role it should play in a portfolio. End question.

非常好的问题。我之前和一些人争论过这个问题。我能理解为何有人视其为成长型资产——因为它不产生收益。我们之前讨论过，Owen，很多防御型资产如现金、固定收益都会产生收益。但人们说它是成长型资产，是因为其价格波动率（标准差）有时甚至高于股市。这让很多人困惑：

Great great question. And and I I've had this argument before with a few people, and I can understand why people see it to sit in a growth asset because it doesn't pay an income. And we were talking before, Owen, how a lot of defensive assets do pay an income, whether it's cash, whether it's fixed income. But why people say it's a growth asset is because if you look at its volatility profile, as in the standard deviation of how much the prices actually move, it's actually sometimes higher than share markets. So a lot of people think, well, hang on.

这明明是防御型资产，按理应该有低波动特性才对。不仅如此，你唯一的回报方式就是资本增值。

This is meant to a defensive asset. It should have a low volatility profile. That doesn't make sense. And not just that. Your only method of return is capital appreciation.

它没有收益来源。所以你实际上是在赌价格会涨还是跌。我想这就是为什么有人认为它应被视为成长型资产的理由。但我坚定地认为它属于防御性资产，原因有几个。一是当你需要在投资组合中配置防御性资产时——不是说天塌地陷的时候——而是你需要那些与传统成长型资产（如股票）相关性不同的资产。

There's no income for it. So you're literally betting that the price will go up or down. So that's, I guess, the argument on why it should be considered a growth asset. But I am in the firm camp that it should be a defensive asset, and there's a couple of reasons why. One is when you want defensive assets in your portfolio, that's when not to say all hell breaks loose, but that's where you want assets in your portfolio that correlate differently to normal growth assets like your equities.

黄金在多个滚动周期内与股票的相关性接近于零，这一历史记录由来已久。因此当股票下跌时，黄金受影响较小。实际上，当股市下跌时人们会涌向黄金，它就像缓冲垫一样为你的投资组合增添一层保护。

And gold has a long track record over multiple rolling periods of having close to a zero correlation with equities. So when equities go down, gold isn't impacted as much. If anything, people flock to gold when share markets experience a drawdown, and it acts as a bit of a cushion to help add a layer of protection to your portfolio.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这是一方面。另一方面，我之前也提到过，它非常像不支付任何收益的固定收益证券。就像零息债券。而且与普通债券不同，它没有信用风险，因为它本质上是由主权国家背书的。它还具有可交易性，是流动性最强的投资资产类别之一，有时甚至超过某些股票市场。

So that's one side of things. The other side, and I've mentioned it before, is it is very similar to a fixed income security that just doesn't pay any income. So it's like a zero coupon bond. It's got no risk of credit risk as well unlike a normal bond because it's backed pretty much by sovereigns as well. And it's tradable, and it's one of the most liquid investment asset classes out there, sometimes even more than certain equity markets as well.

要记住，黄金交易主要由央行和大机构完成——不是你我这样的普通散户投资者。所以我坚持认为它是非相关的防御性资产类别。你希望它成为表现最差的资产类别，因为这意味着其他资产都表现良好。

You gotta remember, a lot of the trading in gold is done. We talked about central banks, talked about big institutions. It's not everyday retail investors like you and me. So I'm in the firm camp that it is uncorrelated defensive asset class. You want it to be the worst performing asset class because it means most things are doing quite well.

我认为如果你在构建投资组合时——比如采用70/30或80/20的比例——那20%的部分应该配置传统防御性资产如固定收益，但其中一小部分应考虑配置具有防御特性的另类资产，比如黄金。在组合中配置黄金并非主流观点，多数人只配置几个百分点。我见过高达15%的配置，但我仍认为它属于防御性资产类别。

And I think that if you're looking at building a portfolio, let's say, you know, it's just like a seventy thirty split or something like that or an eighty twenty, that 20% part of it should be allocated towards your traditional defensive assets like fixed income, but a small part should be considered to be something in an alternative asset that has those defensive capabilities or those defensive properties like gold. It's not a popular view to have gold in your portfolio. Most people only allocate a couple of percent. I've seen as high as 15%, but I still think it sits in the defensive asset class bucket.

嗯。既然谈到这个话题，假设你有个80/20组合（80%成长型，20%防御型），其中黄金的配置比例大概会是多少？

Mhmm. While we're on the topic then, that idea so say if you had an 8020 portfolio, 80% growth, 20% defensive, roughly how much of that would be a gold exposure?

关于黄金的最优配置比例已有大量研究。因为将黄金加入投资组合的目的，是作为一种流动性替代资产，旨在提升风险调整后的收益。对吧？用专业术语来说，就是在承担每单位风险时，如何提高收益质量？世界黄金理事会之前提到的模型显示，当配置比例达到12%至14%左右时，风险调整后的收益就开始出现边际递减效应。

So there's been a lot of research to work out what is the optimal allocation to gold. Because what you're trying to do by adding gold to your portfolio, it's it's a liquid alternative, and you're looking at improving the risk adjusted returns. Right? So it's a fancy way of saying for every unit of risk you take, how can I improve the quality of my returns? And there's been some modeling that's done by the World Gold Council that we talked about before that have said that once you start getting to, like, that 12 to, like, 13 or 14%, you start seeing a bit of a diminishing risk adjusted returns.

因此很少有人会配置超过这个比例。我见过接近15%的案例，但多数人倾向于配置5%或接近10%。正如我所说，如果是80/20股债组合，通常采用固定比例——比如债券部分的20%中，可能5%配置黄金，15%配置固定收益产品。很多人也在讨论加密货币，这个我们可以稍后详谈，但这类资产配置通常只有个位数比例，约1%到2%。

So you don't see a lot of people allocate probably above that. I've seen a couple allocate close to 15%, but most like the idea of having 5% in the portfolio or closer to 10% in the portfolio. And usually, like like I said, if you're doing an eighty twenty portfolio, it's usually a a fixed amount. So if that 20% that's in fixed income, you know, it could be 5% allocation to gold and 15% to fixed income. A lot of people are talking about things like cryptocurrencies, and we can talk about that later on, but they tend to allocate probably sing low single digits to something like that, one to 2%.

而黄金凭借其历史表现，研究显示当配置比例在5%到10%之间时，确实能提升收益质量。它与其他资产类别的相关性不同，因此这是我们通常看到的黄金配置区间。

Whereas gold, because of the track record that it has, there's been a lot of benefits that show if you have anywhere from probably five to seven to as close to 10%, you can improve the quality of your returns. The correlation of it is different to other asset classes. So that's generally where we see people allocate to gold.

这确实很有意思。本播客由Luke Larrative和Seneca金融解决方案团队为您呈现。过去12个月里，Seneca澳大利亚小盘股基金表现优异，在小盘股强劲上涨的行情中脱颖而出。你们都认识Ben和Luke。

That's really interesting. This podcast is proudly brought to you by Luke Larrative and the team at Seneca Financial Solutions. The Seneca Australian Small Companies Fund has been one of the best performing funds over the past twelve months as small caps have really ripped higher. You know Ben. You know Luke.

他们经常做客节目解答问题。但您知道吗？他们旗下一支基金实行0%管理费，当然超额收益部分会收取超过澳联储现金利率的绩效费。作为RAS社区长期成员，看到他们取得如此成就令人欣喜。我知道很多听众对Seneca很感兴趣。

They come on the show all the time and answer your questions. But did you know they have a fund with a 0% management fee? It's got a performance fee over the RBA cash rate, of course. But it's great to see these guys doing so well having been part of the RAS community for a very long time. I know a lot of you are interested in Seneca and like to hear from the guys.

若想了解更多关于Seneca基金的信息——无论是投资方式、预约策略讨论，还是在投资前咨询持仓情况等问题，请访问senecafs.com.au。请注意澳大利亚小盘股基金仅面向专业和成熟投资者。切记：投资决策不应仅参考历史业绩，而应重点关注团队、策略背后的流程与一致性。

So if you want to learn more about the Seneca fund, how to invest with them, or even just book in a call and a time to discuss the strategy or the holdings and whatever you might wanna ask before investing in a managed fund like Seneca's Small Companies Fund, you can head to senecafs.com.au. That's senecafs.com.au. Don't forget with the Australian Small Companies Fund that it's a wholesale fund for professional, sophisticated investors only. And always, you know, don't just rely on past performance to make an investment in any strategy. You wanna focus on the process and the consistency behind the voices, the team, and, I guess, the strategy writ large.

收听本期播客后，请访问senecafs.com.au获取披露文件，预约团队电话会议或邮件联系。他们还提供优质的免费邮件订阅服务。

So go to senecafs.com.au. After listening to this podcast, you can find all the relevant disclosure documents. You can even book a call with the team. Send them an email or get in contact. They've got a great free mailing list as well as you know.

那是senecafs.com.au网站。这样人们就会知道Global X不只做黄金。还有其他金属、贵金属，以及人们可以投资的各类资产。我曾见过一个人，他带了一块铜，大约有一磅重，体积像一升牛奶那么大。相比之下，一盎司黄金就显得小多了。

That's senecafs.com.au. So people will know that Global X doesn't just do gold. There's other metals and there's precious metals and things just in the universe of things that people could invest in. I I once saw a fellow, he brought in a I think it was a pound of copper, and it was kind of like the size of, a one liter milk. It was, like, big versus, like, an ounce of gold or something like this.

人们还可以投资其他东西，对吧？比如其他金属，比如投资铜线之类的？

Like, there are other things that people can invest in. Right? Other metals, whether it's, like, in terms of is it wire that invests in copper?

铜矿开采公司。没错。

Copper miners. Yep.

是的，铜矿开采公司。所以你是投资开采铜的公司的股票，但也可以直接投资金属本身或实物。那其他金属呢？比如为什么白银不像黄金那么受欢迎？不仅仅是因为奥运领奖台黄金总是排第一这类原因，黄金到底有什么特质让它成为比白银更优越的投资和配置选择？

Yeah. Copper miners. So you're getting the shares of companies that mine copper, but then you can invest in the metals themselves or the physical as well. What about those other like, why isn't, say, silver as popular as gold? And and it's not just because of the Olympic podium and gold tends to come first and all that stuff, but, like, what is it about gold that's so much that makes it a superior investment and allocation compared to silver?

归根结底是财富保值的问题。像黄金这种防御性资产，与经济周期的关联性较弱。虽然黄金也有一些工业用途，比如用于科技产品和某些建筑材料。而白银则与经济周期紧密相关，因此波动性更大，相对于股市的贝塔值也高于黄金。

It's really about wealth preservation at the end of the day. And when it comes to something like gold, which is a bit more of a defensive asset, it's not as cyclically tied to what's going on in the economy. Whereas when you think about some of applications of gold, and there are some, like gold is used in some industrial applications. It's used in things like technology and also as in building blocks of certain things. When you look at things like silver, it's a lot more tied towards the economic cycle of where things are, which is why it could be seen as a little bit more volatile or have a higher beta to the share market versus something like gold.

但白银确实有各种不同的应用场景。你去本地金条店可以买到实物金条，也能买到实物银条。很多人说白银价格相对黄金存在巨大折价，应该会趋于均衡。但问题是白银没有像黄金那样的珠宝需求支撑，对吧？

But there are a range in different applications when it comes to it. And if you go to the local bullion, you can buy physical gold bars, but then you've also got physical silver. And a lot of people are saying silver is trading at a massive discount to where gold prices are, and there should be an equilibrium. But, again, you're not getting that same demand in terms of jewelry. Right?

没错。多数人还是更青睐黄金。各国央行也不储备白银。这些资产类别有不同的驱动因素，在不同股市环境下，它们在不同领域会有不同的表现。人们配置黄金的一个重要原因就是用它来对冲通胀。

Yep. A lot of people still favor towards gold. Central banks are not holding silver. And these asset classes have different drivers, and during certain share market regimes, they may perform in different sort of regimes in different areas. And one thing that people use for gold in their portfolio is as an inflation hedge.

与其他一些贵金属相比，黄金在这方面有着非常良好的记录。你可以投资铂金，也可以投资钯金，甚至像锂这样的金属。但归根结底，这些金属都更受整体经济或工业环境影响，而非其基本面属性——这正是黄金所具备的部分特性。

It's got a very good track record of doing that versus some of the other precious metals as well. So you can invest in things like platinum. You can invest in things like palladium. But at the end of the day or or things like, you know, even lithium. But, again, it's tied to broader economic influences or broader industrial influences as opposed to the raw fundamentals, and that's some of the properties that gold have.

因此在我们提供的产品中，黄金仍然是最受欢迎的实物商品。如果客户有兴趣，可以将其与其他大宗商品组合投资。你也可以投资软性商品，但这取决于你的目标：是想押注经济周期重启，还是将其作为防御性对冲工具？

So amongst our suite, gold is still the most popular physical commodity. People can kind of blend it and have multiple commodities if they are interested. You can invest in soft commodities as well. But it really depends. Are you trying to get exposure to kind of a the restart or what's happening on the economic cycle, or are you using it as a defensive hedge?

对大多数人而言，配置黄金是为了对冲货币贬值、美元风险、关税政策或特朗普等因素。很多人选择黄金正是因为它具有稳定性，并且长期保持着财富保值工具的历史记录。

For most people, the defensive hedge is to protect against currency debasement, risk of the US dollar, tariffs, Trump, etcetera. Lot A of people go towards gold because it's just got that stability and it's got that track record of really being a wealth preservation tool over time.

有意思。回到波兰央行大量购买黄金的话题，现任波兰总理唐纳德·图斯克这么做或许有其道理。他们增持黄金储备正是因为地缘政治风险等因素会引发这类需求，对吧？

Interesting. Circling back to the Polish central bank buying so much gold, Donald Tusk, who is the prime minister of Poland at the moment. Maybe there's something to that. They hold gold purchase because a lot of the geopolitical risk and these types of things just give rise to those types of things. Right?

说到这个——鉴于你我私下交流黄金ETF组建事宜已有半年左右，据我所知，这可比组建个普通ISX 200指数ETF复杂得多。具体需要哪些步骤？很多人至今仍对黄金ETF的运作机制感到困惑。

So so in terms of maybe because you and I have been speaking a lot for probably, like, six months now off air about what it takes to put a gold ETF together. Mhmm. Because it's not, like, say, as simple as just like an ISX 200 ETF as far as I'm familiar with. So what does that actually take? Like, some people are still confused around how a gold ETF actually works.

你说它像流动性资产，但又提到需要穿过马路去取金条。我们现在悉尼CBD录音，对面就是澳交所大楼——但买股票可不用亲自跑过去，明白我的意思吗？

So you say it's like a liquid thing, but you also mentioned that you have to walk across the street and get the, like, the bar. And we're recording here in the Sydney CBD and just over the other direction, there's the exchange building for the ASX. Mhmm. But you don't have to walk over there to get your shares. Know what I mean?

完全正确。

Exactly right.

所以，显然事物运作方式存在关键差异。那么它实际上是如何运作的呢？

So, like, there's obviously a critical difference in how things work. So how does it actually work?

是的。我的意思是，它的结构很简单，本质上是通过ETF包装持有一种在交易所交易的基础资产类别。不同之处在于，它不像股票市场上那些有员工为其工作的上市公司。你知道，虽然每天都能看到黄金的市值，但它与典型的公司不同。欧文，当你投资黄金ETF时，在买卖单位的方式上运作非常相似。

Yeah. I mean, it is a simple structure in that it is owning an underlying asset class that trades on exchange through the ETF wrapper. The the difference with it is it's not like a a company that's listed on the share market that has employees working for it. It doesn't have necessarily you know, you can see the market cap of gold every day, but it's not the same as a typical company. When you're investing in a gold ETF, Owen, it it works very similarly in terms of how you can actually buy and sell units.

存在这些中间商，他们被称为做市商或授权参与者，基本上会根据投资者的需求代表他们买卖黄金，以形成ETF的创建单位或赎回单位。整个过程不是投资者之间交换股份，而是将黄金存放在金库中。我们使用摩根大通作为伦敦的托管人，金库里确实有我们自己的一小堆黄金。虽然我本人没进过金库，但听说那里很壮观，因为里面堆满了小箱子。当某些买家或卖家在这些ETF中移动或创建单位时，黄金实际上会被叉车从一堆搬到另一堆，因为大部分交易都是由这些大型机构完成的。

You've got these middlemen, which are called either market makers or authorized participants, which will pretty much buy and and and sell gold on behalf of the investor if there's enough demand to make a creation unit or a redemption unit in the ETF. And all that happens is instead of exchanging, you know, shares between investors, what there is is gold is held in a vault. So we use JPMorgan as our custodian in London, and we've got our own little pile of gold in the actual vault. I haven't personally been in the vault, but I've heard it's awesome because there's all these little crates that are in there. And all that happens is if certain buyers or sellers are moving or creating units in each of these ETFs, gold will literally be pretty much forklift from one pile to another because most of the trading is done by these big institutions.

所以GlobalX有自己的一小堆黄金。其实也不算小，规模相当大，因为我们拥有全球最大的黄金ETF之一。但实际发生的情况是黄金会从一处转移到另一处。

So GlobalX had its own little pile of gold. Well, it's actually not that little. It's actually quite large because we've got the one of the biggest gold ETFs in the world. But what will happen is gold will literally move from one to another. Right.

你所做的只是在这个基金中创建单位或可能赎回单位。最终，终端投资者对那部分黄金拥有实物权益。我们会公布持有的所有金条清单，这是已分配的黄金。实际上，有些投资者确实要求实物交割这些黄金。虽然我不明白为什么投资者要这么做，毕竟黄金在ETF包装里挺好的。

So all you're doing is creating units or potentially redeeming units in this fund. And at end of the day, the end investor has a physical entitlement to that gold. So we publish a list of all the gold bars we hold. It's allocated gold, and we actually have had some investors who want to take physical delivery of that gold. Again, I don't know why an investor would because it's good in a in a wrapper.

但确实拥有这种能力——可以说'我需要赎回黄金并把它从金库搬到我的后院或任何地方'，你确实拥有这种选择权。所以黄金就在这里。

But to have that ability to say, I need to redeem the gold and actually get it out of the vault into my into my backyard or whatever it is, you do have that ability. So gold is here.

仔细想想真是疯狂。

Crazy when you think about it.

是的，我我不明白人们为什么这么做，但拥有这种选择权，我想，是一种激励。不过从结构上来说非常简单，就像人们对ETF非常熟悉一样，只不过你不是购买底层公司股票，而是拥有实际的实物金条，这与黄金矿商不同，后者你实际上是在购买结构内的股权。

Yeah. I I I don't get why people do it, but the optionality of having that is, I guess, an incentive. But it's a very simple structure in terms of how people are very familiar with an ETF, but instead of buying underlying companies, you're owning actual physical bullion, which differs towards gold miners where you're actually buying equities within the structure.

我不想把话题扯得太远，但《虎胆龙威》里有个场景，他们在金库里。当你说到叉车时，显然他们是在把黄金从金库运出来。但他们必须用叉车来搬运，因为黄金太重了。

There's a I don't wanna bring too light too much light to this, but there's a a scene in Die Hard where they are in the gold vault. And you when you said, like, the forklifts, they are obviously taking the gold from the the vault. But they they have to get the forklifts to move it because it's so heavy.

没错。

That's right.

每个人都有自己的那种，看起来像个小监狱，里面堆满了金条，安全地存放在那里。这真是...是的，这种运作方式很迷人。

And everyone has their own kind of, like it looks like a little prison with all the gold bars and stored securely in there. It's just it yeah. It's it's fascinating the way that works.

确实如此，但这已经持续了几个世纪。你知道吗？它有着悠久的历史，我们之前提到央行希望将其作为储备资产，也谈到波兰希望将20%的储备多元化以远离美元，同时在经济不确定性中起到对冲作用。我认为这是个迷人的市场，很多人可能没有足够关注这些基本上就是...你知道的，静静躺在那里什么都不做的金条，但它们价值连城。

It is, but it's been happening for centuries. You know? Yeah. And it's got this long history and the fact that we talked about central banks wanting to hold it on their reserves, and we talked about Poland wanting to have 20% of their reserves to diversify away from the US dollar and also, you know, kind of hedge against economic uncertainty. I think it's a it's a fascinating market, and a lot of people probably don't look enough at some of these pretty much just, you know, bars of gold that are just sitting there not doing anything, but they're incredibly valuable.

而且背后的流程也相当惊人。

And the process behind it is quite phenomenal as well.

是啊，哇。所以，ASX上有不少不同的黄金ETF，我马上要重点介绍GlobalX的两只产品。GOLD...嗯...也许我们应该这样称呼它，这样我们就知道是在讨论广义的黄金，还是特指GOLD这只ETF。

Yeah. Wow. So, like, there are quite a few different gold ETFs on the ASX, I'm and gonna single out two of them from GlobalX in just a sec. The GOLD Mhmm. Maybe that's how we should refer to it just so we know whether it's actual we're talking about gold generally or just the GOLD ETF.

但还有GXLD。没错。这是较新的ETF，费用也更低。这个对我来说特别有意思。

But then there's GXLD. Yep. And this is the newer ETF. It's also lower cost. And this is the one that's really interesting to me.

显然我们之前讨论过这个问题。对于不熟悉的人来说，根本区别是什么？GOLD是澳大利亚目前最大的黄金ETF，而GXLD看起来相同但更便宜。这是怎么运作的？

And obviously, we've spoken before or fair about it. For folks who aren't familiar, what is the fundamental difference? Like, GOLD is the, by far, the biggest gold ETF in Australia. And then you've got GXLD, which looks the same but is cheaper. Like, how does that work?

是的。我差点把GXLD描述成GOLD的迷你版。我们GlobalX之前是这个领域的先驱，当时公司叫ETF Securities，推出了全球首只黄金ETF。

Yeah. I almost described GXLD as, like, the the mini me version of GOLD. So we were pioneers in this space before, you know, GlobalX. The business was called ETF Securities, and we came out with the first gold ETF in the world. Right?

所以它不仅是澳大利亚第一只，更是世界首只。那是在2003年。我们将其构建为公司形式，而非现在大多数ETF采用的管理投资计划结构。

So it wasn't just the first in Australia, it was in the world. And this was in 2003. And when we structured it, it was structured as a company. Right? It wasn't structured as a normal managed investment scheme like what most ETFs are done nowadays.

这是因为它的实际结构非常独特。它成为了流动性极高的巨无霸产品，其他国家都想复制这种解决方案，使其变得非常流行。

And that's because it was quite unique in terms of the actual structure of it. And it became this big behemoth. It became so liquid. People wanted to model the exact same solution, the same wrap of it in other different countries. And it became so popular.

当我们观察ETF行业趋势时，发现许多低成本黄金ETF进入市场。常有人问我：为什么不直接降低GOLD的费用？但实际操作比单纯调整费用复杂得多——由于它是公司结构，我们仍需召开年度董事会。

And when we were looking at what was happening in the ETF industry, you started to see a lot of low cost gold ETFs come to market. And the the question I normally get on is, well, why couldn't you just lower the fee of gold Yeah. Down to something cheaper? But it's actually a little bit more complex than just saying, oh, we need to actually change the change the fee, and that'll be that. Because it's a technique structured as a company, we still have annual board meetings.

听起来很传统对吧？股东可以参加黄金ETF的年度股东大会，就像上市公司那样。这与现代产品的运作方式截然不同。改变结构会带来巨大行政负担，非常繁琐。所以对于需要流动性和信任的投资者来说，像GOLD这样买卖价差极窄的澳大利亚最大黄金ETF仍是最佳选择。

I know it sounds very old school where, you know, in this room, people will come in, shareholders of gold can actually come in, and there'd be an AGM. It's very similar like going to an AGM for a company, which is very different, and that's not how a lot of the contemporary products are launched. So to change it would have been a huge administrative burden, and it would have been quite, yeah, quite cumbersome to do. So we thought, look. For people who want the liquidity and the the trust and when you're looking at, like, the bid ask spreads of something so tight like the largest gold ETF in Australia, GOLD still serves that purpose.

但对于那些可能只想买入并持有，或通过定投方式低成本投资黄金ETF的人来说，GXLD的流动性特征与实物黄金不同。不过如果你不打算每天频繁交易，选择15个基点而非40个基点的费用可能更划算。我们确实观察到部分投资者从黄金转向GXLD以获取低成本黄金敞口，但仍有大量投资者看重实物黄金的流动性和低交易成本。因此这实际上取决于您的投资期限，而我们乐意为客户提供两种选择：要么选择传统低成本黄金作为长期持有，要么选择流动性更佳、更适合战术性配置的产品。

But for people who maybe are looking to just buy and hold or dollar cost average their way into a low cost gold ETF, GXLD doesn't have that same liquidity profile as gold. But if you're not looking at trading in and out every single day, maybe having 15 basis points instead of 40 makes a lot of sense. And we did see some rotation out of gold into GXLD for people who are wanting to get access to low cost gold, but there's still a lot of people who value having gold because of the liquidity, because of the low trading cost as well. So it really depends on your time horizon, but we like offering both options to clients. Either you're very traditional low cost gold as a long term holding or something that can be pretty much favored for its liquidity and maybe if it's a bit more of a tactical side of things.

为可能和我一样困惑的听众确认一下，当您提到黄金的流动性时具体指什么？是指买卖价差吗？还是其他...

Just to confirm for folks that maybe as confused as I am, when you're saying liquidity of GOLD, what do you mean? Do you mean the bid ask spread? Like a different

没错。关于流动性，我认为有两个层面：一是底层资产的流动性。黄金本身具有极高的流动性，完全无需担心。

Exactly. So when you're looking at liquidity, I guess there's two layers of liquidity. One is the liquidity of the underlying. So gold, extremely liquid. Don't have to worry about it.

黄金的实际交易量甚至远超某些股票。但就二级市场而言——欧文，假设你现在打开投资应用想买黄金，看到单位价格是10美元，但买卖报价分别是10.05或10.06美元...抱歉，或者略低于这个数字——这就是我们所说的价差。从每日成交量来看，GLD基金的交易活跃度更高。如果你要进行大额交易，当然可以致电我们的交易台让做市商报价，但有些投资者非常看重这种流动性。

It trades a hell of a lot more than some shares actually do. But when we're talking about secondary market so, Owen, if you were on screen, you're on your investment app, and you're looking at buying gold, if you're seeing that the unit price is at $10, but the buy and sell is at $10.00 5 or $10.00 6 or Yep. Sorry, or or a little bit lower than that, that's the spread we're talking about. And just in terms of the volume that's traded every single day, the GLD fund has a lot more activity. So if you're looking to do a large amount of orders, I mean, you can always call our desk and get the market maker to make a price for it, but some people value that liquidity.

他们重视更窄的价差，因为需要进行大量交易。这里我们讨论的是买卖价格之间的差额——你并不总能以ETF的资产净值成交，此外还要考虑二级市场（即交易所）上ETF的成交量或换手率。

They value having those tighter spreads because they are doing a lot of transactions. So we're talking about the difference between the buy and sell price because you're not always gonna get the price at the net asset value of the ETF, and then you're talking about how much volume or how much turnover is going through the ETF on the secondary market, which is on exchange.

明白了。您刚才提到可以致电交易台...嗯...具体是指？

Okay. It all makes sense. You mentioned something there, just call our desk. Mhmm. What what are we talking?

需要达到多少金额才能获得单独报价？

How how much would you need to call the desk in order to get a separate quote?

所以这不是那种如果你想交易的情况。我是说，我们有些客户交易金额只有几百美元，他们却说想锁定价差。这些做市商提供买卖服务，他们也需要赚钱。确实如此。所以他们通过持有库存和买卖差价之间的套利来盈利。

So it's not something where if you're trying to trade. I mean, we've had some clients who are trading like a a few $100, and they're like, I wanna tie the spread. I mean, these market makers that are there to provide the facility of buying and selling, they need to make money as well then Yeah. For sure they do. So they make the arbitrage between holding the inventory and actually the difference between the buy and the sell.

通常，如果有人想交易几十万或数百万美元，但对屏幕上显示的报价不满意，这时可以联系我们的交易台。我们有一个投资组合管理团队，他们可以与做市商沟通，可能压缩部分价差。我们看到很多有意下大单的客户都这么做，他们不想影响市场。

So normally, if people are looking to trade hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars and they're not very happy with what they're seeing on screen, that's where you can, you know, call out our desk. We've got a portfolio management team. They can have a conversation with the market makers who can potentially tighten some of those spreads. And we see it for a lot of clients who are interested in placing large orders. They don't wanna impact the market.

假设是一个规模较小的基金，你想在交易中买入的量远高于历史平均成交量。他们只是不想因成交价不利而吃亏。所以我们会联系做市商说：看，我们有客户想购买500万单位的ZYOU（举例），希望获得较窄的价差。

Let's say it's a bit more of a a smaller fund or something where the actual volume that you're trying to buy in the trade is actually a lot higher than the historical average turnover. They just don't wanna be caught out on paying something that where they get a bad price or unfavorable price. So we'll call up the market maker and say, look. We've got a client who's interested in purchasing 5,000,000 units of ZYOU as an example. They're looking at having a tight spread.

你能做什么？通常他们在查看实际卖盘时，屏幕上会显示相应单位数量，这让想进行大额交易的买家更方便。但如果是相对较小的交易，就不符合做市商的最佳利益。

What can you do? And normally, they'll see something on screen when you're looking at the actual sell side. The units will then pop up, and that makes it a lot easier for the buyer who's looking to do a large trade. But, again, if it's something that's relatively small, that's not something that's in the market maker's best interest.

是的。

Yeah.

我们始终致力于确保价差尽可能收窄。

We're always trying to make sure the spreads are as tight as possible.

我们想要看看

We wanna look

非常、非常接近。但是，是的，当你说到个位数时，那确实非常、非常小。

very, very closely. But, yeah, when you're talking, like, single digits, it's it's very, very small.

是的，这真的很有趣，因为人们会非常欣赏你构建投资组合的背景，马克。这确实很有意思。我还有最后两个问题要问你。第一个我们稍微提到过，我稍后会问到。

Yeah. That's really interesting because, like, people will really appreciate that context around how you build a portfolio, Mark. So that's that's really interesting. I've got two final questions for you. One, we've kind of talked about a little bit, but I'll get to that in a sec.

第一个问题是，几年前，我想那是在新冠疫情之前。具体时间我不太确定。巴菲特，你知道，人们总是把他的行为解读为他改变了观点。他确实投资了黄金，但他是投资了一家金矿公司。嗯。

This the the first one is, like, a few years ago, I think this was pre COVID. I don't know exactly when this was. Buffett, you know, people just take what he does and then think that he's changed his opinion or something. He actually did invest in gold, but he invests in a gold miner. Mhmm.

这与直接投资实物黄金是不同的。你能向大家解释一下这两者的区别吗？嗯。以及如果他们想获得黄金敞口，不同的选择会有什么影响。

Which is different to investing in the actual gold itself. Can you explain to people the difference? Mhmm. And what that implication would have for if they're say, they're wanting to get gold exposure, the different option there.

是的。我认为重要的是要说明投资者如何获得黄金敞口的背景。一种是我们讨论过的直接获取实物金属本身。没错。另一种是通过股市购买参与黄金勘探和开采的公司股票。

Yeah. I think it's important to paint some context in terms of how investors could get exposure to gold. One, we talked about getting access to the actual physical metal itself. Yep. But the other is through the the share market by buying by buying companies that are involved in gold exploration and gold mining.

从历史上看，那是在ETF出现之前。如果你不想通过金银交易商实际买卖黄金，大多数人会选择购买股票。我要特别提到我的同事贾斯汀·林，他写了一篇很棒的文章《黄金投资者是时候放弃金矿股了》。他上周刚在我们网站上发布，有兴趣的人可以看看。

And historically, that is before the ETF came out. And if you didn't want to actually trade gold by buying it from an actual bullion dealer, most people bought equities. And a shout out to one of my coworkers, Justin Lin, who wrote a great a great piece called gold investors as time to let go of gold miners. He recently published it last week on our website if anyone's interested.

好的，你能把那篇文章发给我吗？

Yeah. Can you send that to me?

确实如此。数据显示，在首只黄金ETF推出前，金矿公司的股价净值比普遍存在较大溢价。但黄金ETF一上市，估值倍数就开始明显下降。这基本是市场在表明，这些公司原先的估值偏高，因为那时它们是获取黄金敞口的少数途径之一。

Yeah. Definitely. He he showed that pretty much gold miners traded at quite a big premium before the first ETF launched in terms of their price to book. But as soon as the gold ETF launch, you start to see multiples really come down. And that's, I think, pretty much the market telling that, well, these these companies were valued a little bit higher than what they they were because that was one of the only reasons to get exposure to gold.

但黄金ETF让投资变得容易多了。巴菲特青睐黄金（至少是金矿股）的原因之一在于它们能产生现金流。有时这些企业利润非常可观。许多人投资金矿股是因为它们能提供对黄金价格的杠杆效应，这种效应确实时有显现。

But the gold ETF makes it a lot easier. And one of the reason Buffett like gold is because at least gold miners is it because it attracts they generate cash flow. Right? And sometimes they can be massively profitable businesses. A lot of people invest in gold because in gold miners because it provides a bit more of a leveraged impact to to gold, and you you do see that sometimes.

金矿股确实对黄金价格具有更高的贝塔值或敏感性。但单看业绩数据，它们长期跑输实物黄金价格。这是因为这些公司存在个股风险或特质风险——若某家金矿企业因运营、财务等原因未达目标，股价就会遭受重创。

It does have a higher beta or higher sensitivity towards gold. But if you look at the performance data alone, they have structurally underperformed the physical gold price themself. And that's because a lot of these companies, you have to deal with in the business, we call it single stock risk or idiosyncratic risk. If one of these gold miners, you know, whatever for whatever reason, operationally, financially, they don't achieve their targets, they they blow up, they have difficulties, their share prices will be punished. Right?

若盈利不及预期，股价就会受挫。而实物黄金没有这些问题，它不需要满足盈利预期，也无需管理资产负债表或现金流量表。对于许多想单纯持有实物黄金的投资者来说——尤其考虑到我们之前讨论的相关性——

If they don't meet their earnings expectation, it will be punished. Whereas gold doesn't have that. They don't have the same earnings expectations. They don't have to manage a balance sheet or a cash flow statement. So for a lot of people who want exposure to the physical gold, particularly and we talked about the correlations before.

实物黄金与股票的相关性远低于金矿股。关键在于：你是将其作为分散投资工具，还是收入来源？因此我认为直接投资黄金而非金矿股有许多优势。历史数据显示，过去二十年黄金年化回报约9-10%，

The correlations of physical gold to equities is a lot lower than gold mining stocks. So it depends. Are you using it as a diversifier or are you using it to generate income? So I see a lot of people and a lot of merit of using gold instead of gold miners. And historically, if you look, I think I was looking at the past twenty years, gold's done around about nine or 10% per annum.

而金矿股仅4%左右，业绩差异相当显著。

Gold miners about 4% per annum. So quite a big difference when it comes to the performance.

这个样本量很有说服力。归根结底，就像你说的，这取决于你在投资组合中如何看待它——是像巴菲特那样视为增长标的，还是其他定位？

And that's a significant sample size to look at it. Yeah. And it's it's it comes back to that what do you see it as in your portfolio, right, as you said. Like, is it a growth thing? Like, Buffett was obviously buying.

我认为

I think

是巴里克。没错。巴里克黄金公司，全球最大的之一。他显然是在关注这家公司的基本面，正确。

it was Barrick Yep. That's right. Barrick Gold, which is one of the biggest in the world. And that was the stock. Obviously, he's looking at the business Correct.

基本面。

Fundamentals.

是的。因为他采用的是自下而上的分析视角。但若采用自上而下视角，可能就难以判断该买哪家金矿公司。市面上也有黄金矿业ETF。但对于将其作为宏观经济对冲工具的人而言，我们认为实物金条远比金矿股更优。

Yeah. Because he was looking at it from a bottom up perspective. But if you're looking top down, maybe you don't have a view of which gold miner to buy. And there are gold miners ETFs out there. But for people who use it more as a macroeconomic hedge, we think that the far superior option would be physical bullion instead of gold miners.

确实。事实胜于雄辩对吧？好的，我正记下那篇文章——会找你要链接，并放在本期节目备注里供想深入了解的听众参考。因为马克你提到的那些关于黄金的宏观大势背景，比如结构性...

Yeah. The proof's kind of in the pudding, isn't it? Okay. So I was writing down there that that article, which I'll get from you, and I'll include it in the show notes for this episode for anyone that wants to dive deeper. Because, like, in the back of my mind, Mark, you mentioned all the the big picture macro stuff about gold and, like, the kind of structural

嗯。

Mhmm.

支撑因素。说实话，今年可能赚不到35%，但长期来看有大量利好数据支撑。另外随着利率实际下降或预期下降——我们录制当天是2月13日...

Strengths behind it. Like, you might not do 35% this year, let's be honest. But over the long term, there's a lot of good data around it. But the other thing is with interest rates falling down or expected to fall down, actually, in so we're recording this. It's now 02/13.

所以我们现在可能每秒都能看到利率下调的数据。但随着利率下降，人们会想，我的债券最终收益率会降低。嗯，债券就是这样运作的。因此，我要开始重新关注这些替代资产类别了。

So we'll have the data probably in each second now of where the interest rates were cut. But with interest rates coming down, people are thinking, well, my bonds will eventually start yielding less. Mhmm. That's the way bonds work. So therefore, I'm going to start looking at these alternative buckets again.

这就是黄金ETF开始发挥重要作用的地方。所以我最后一个问题其实已经问过你，但我想再确认一次。因为节目结束后，很多人——包括我自己——都会重新思考资产配置的问题。你经常会遇到这种‘全天候投资组合’的概念，不知道是不是雷·达里奥推广的这种理念？

So that's where gold ETFs start to play a big role. So my final question is one that I've already asked you, but I just wanted to ask you again. Because at the end of this, there's gonna be a lot of people that are interested in thinking, like, revisiting the asset allocation, myself included, is I you know, you come across these instances of, like, all weather portfolios. I don't know if it was Ray Dalia that kind of popularized that. It was?

对。很多人都有这种全天候组合的想法，认为市场有不同的季节周期。但传统组合里，我其实是八二开配置的，当然你可以随意调整比例。

Yeah. Okay. But a lot of people have this idea of an all weather portfolio. There's different seasons for markets and so on the analogy goes. But in a traditional portfolio, I've kind of actually eighty twenty, but, like, take this whatever you want.

那你是否建议人们考虑配置5%黄金？你是这个意思吗？

Are you would you suggest that people consider the merits of, say, a 5% allocation to gold? Is that what you're saying?

是的。对于很多想构建投资组合的客户或潜在投资者来说，大多数人基本配置股票和债券，可能还有些其他资产。黄金绝对符合我们之前说的防御性资产类别。而且多数人确实不想配置过高比例的黄金。

Yeah. I think for a lot of clients or potential investors who wanna build it into their portfolios and most people, let's say, have your basic equities and your basic bonds, maybe they have something else on the side. This definitely fits in that defensive bucket that we spoke about before. Yep. And most people, at least they don't wanna have a heavy weighting towards gold.

不过我个人认为大多数澳大利亚人黄金配置还是不足。去年黄金创了40次历史新高，即便现在金价仍在历史高位，有人考虑获利了结，配置个位数的比例。但如果金价突破每盎司3000美元，我认为这可能开启黄金的长期牛市。

Again, I still think most Australians under allocate to gold personally. And, I mean, last year, there were 40 all time highs made within gold. And even now, it's trading at an all time high, and people are thinking, maybe I wanna take some money off the table and maybe allocate single like, low single digits. But I still feel like let's say we cross that barrier of 3,000 US dollars a ton. I still think that that gold can be the start of a secular bull market within gold.

对很多人来说，5%是个很合适的配置比例。再次声明这不是投资建议，但配置黄金能改善风险调整后收益，之前你也提到过甚至可以配置到10%。如果黄金暴涨而股市暴跌，你还可以套现部分黄金转投股票。把黄金作为战略资产进行再平衡很有意义，否则黄金仓位可能从5%开始就...

And for a lot of people, I think 5% is a really nice allocation to have. Again, this isn't recommended financial advice, but the merits of having that in terms of improving your risk adjusted returns, you spoke about before, even allocating up to 10% in the portfolio. And then what you can do is, let's say gold goes in an absolute tear, share markets crash, you can actually harvest some profit and allocate to the shares. So using gold as a strategic asset to rebalance makes a lot of sense in portfolios. Because if not, that gold waiting, well, starts at five.

如果黄金继续上涨，欧文，我是说，我的投资组合中持有黄金。我希望它继续上涨，但我也希望其他资产表现良好。黄金占比可能会逐渐升至8%、12%甚至20%。因此，你的整体风险偏好实际上已经改变，这取决于你实际承担的风险程度。所以如果你配置了5%或10%的黄金，制定再平衡策略以锁定部分利润就非常重要。

If it does keep rallying, Owen, and I mean, I've got gold in my portfolio. I hope it does keep rallying, but I also hope everything else does well. That gold portion can start becoming eight, twelve, 20%. And therefore, your overall risk appetite has actually changed in terms of how much risk you're actually taking. So really important if you do have a five or 10% allocation towards gold, definitely have a rebalancing policy in place in terms of harvesting some profits.

正如我之前提到的，你其实希望黄金表现非常糟糕。你确实应该这么想，因为这意味着其他资产都在上涨。但在当前这种股票和债券呈现正相关性的环境下，黄金也因不同的经济驱动因素而上涨。我仍然认为保持一个合适的配置比例很重要，这就是为什么我们看到很多客户配置约5%到7%的黄金。

And as I mentioned before, you want gold to be a really bad performer. You really, really do because it means everything else is doing well. But in an environment like this, where there's been positive correlations with equities and bonds, gold's also rallied because it's got different economic drivers. I still feel having that sweet spot, and that's where we see a lot of clients having around about a five or a 7% allocation towards gold.

好的，我喜欢这个观点。马克，每次交流都很愉快，感谢你在节目开始时提出的批评意见，我真的很感激。我会在节目中放上链接，我也看到了你在参考文献中提到的我们讨论过的基金和ETF。

Okay. I like it. Mark, always good to chat, and thank you for the the critiques at the top of the show. I really appreciate that. I'll put links in the show, and I saw the the funds and ETFs that we mentioned in the literature you referenced as well.

非常感谢你抽出时间。

So appreciate you taking the time out.

很荣幸。再次感谢邀请我，欧文。

Pleasure. Thanks again for having me, Owen.