本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
香草冰淇淋与GlobalX新推出的澳大利亚300 ETF有何共同点?它们都是经典的核心风味,作为坚实基础,可搭配更刺激的配料或投资。隆重推出300 ETF,一键投资ASX上市公司前300强。这正是强化您投资组合核心的经典香草型投资选择。
What do vanilla ice cream and GlobalX's new Australia 300 ETF have in common? They're both classic core flavors, working as a solid foundation for more exciting toppings or investments. Introducing a 300. Access the top 300 ASX listed companies in one ETF. Just a classic vanilla investment to strengthen the core of your portfolio.
年费仅0.04%,是覆盖300家而非通常200家公司的最低成本ETF。详情请访问globalxetfs.com.au。金融服务牌照号466778。投资有风险,回报不保证。请参阅相关产品披露声明和目标市场确定文件。
At a competitive fee of just 0.04% per annum, it's the lowest cost ETF serving up 300 companies instead of the usual 200. Visit globalxetfs.com.au to learn more. AFSL 46677eight. Investing involves risk, and returns are not guaranteed. Refer to the relevant PDS and TMD.
欢迎收听本期播客。在开始前,我要特别播报赞助商Termplus的最新动态。您可能之前听过Termplus团队的介绍。2025年10月整月——准确说是截止2025年10月31日——RASK听众若选择通过Termplus投资超过3万澳元,即可获得300澳元奖金。
Welcome to this episode of the podcast. Before we get into it, I wanna give you a special update from one of our sponsors. That's Termplus. You've probably heard some of the team from Termplus on the podcast before. But for the month of October 2025 until thirty one October twenty twenty five, to be precise, RASK listeners who choose to invest their money with term plus can get a $300 bonus as part of an offer they're running for anyone that invests more than $30,000.
您懂的规矩:投资前务必确认产品适合自己。可通过播客播放器内链接或访问term+.com.au了解详情及参与方式。现在正式进入节目环节。大家好,先插播一条提示:
And you know the drill. Always make sure the investment is right for you before investing, but you can follow the link in your podcast player or head to term+.com.au to learn more about what's on offer and how to get involved. Now let's get into the episode. Hey there. Here's a quick note.
本播客仅提供通用财务建议,不针对个人需求、目标或情况。在咨询财务顾问前请勿据此操作。完整声明、免责条款及金融服务指南链接详见节目备注。Drew Meredith,最近怎么样?
This podcast contains general financial advice only. That means it's not specific to you, your needs, goals, or objectives, so don't act on the information until you've spoken with your financial adviser. You'll find our full disclosure, disclaimer, and link to our financial services guide in the show notes. Drew Meredith, how are you going?
非常非常好。这周真是精彩纷呈的一周,对吧?
Very, very well. It's been an exciting eventful week, hasn't it?
来,Drew,展现你的活力!
Well, bring the energy, Drew.
是的,一直都是。
Yes. Always.
比如德鲁要去露营。德鲁,你对此感觉如何?我不太确定,我
Drew is, for example, going camping. How do you feel about this, Drew? I'm not sure. I have
得去Kmart买露营装备,我觉得这比住酒店要贵。
to go to Kmart and buy my camping gear, which I think is gonna be more expensive than staying in a hotel.
确实,对任何有经验的露营者来说,从Kmart购买装备是最明智的选择。他们都在那里买。
Definitely getting your camping gear from Kmart makes the most sense for any seasoned camper. That's where they go.
没错。BCF那种地方会让人有点不知所措。哦,别提
For sure. BCF, get a bit overwhelmed with that sort of thing. Oh, don't get
BCF了。
me started on BCF.
是啊。
Yeah.
BCF是谁旗下的,比如,证券交易所的?
Who owns BCF, like, the stock exchange?
Bapcor还是Super Retail集团不是刚任命了BCF的CEO吗?
Didn't Bapcor or Super Retail Group just got the CEO of BCF?
所以Super Retail集团拥有BCF。让我在票务终端查一下,t I k 这里面有故事。别担心这个。作为一个热心的钓鱼爱好者,我可以告诉你。
So Super Retail Group owns BCF. Let me just bring this up in the ticket terminal, t I k The re this has got a story to it. Don't you worry about that. As a keen fisherman, I can tell you what.
我们不是正经露营,只打算住几个晚上。
We're not doing proper camping. We're only camping a couple of nights.
BCF简直是抢钱,兄弟。Super Retail集团旗下有——天哪——一大堆品牌:Supercheap、Auto、Rebel、BCF、Macpac。Macpac也是他们的吗?
BCF is a rip, bro. So Super Retail Group, which owns oh, gosh, a bunch of stuff. Supercheap, Auto, Rebel, BCF, Macpac. Is that a Macpac?
靠谱。
Solid.
Macpac相当不错。它的毛利率有45%
Macpac's pretty good. So it's got a gross profit margin of 45%,
这对零售商来说相当不错了。
which is Pretty good for a retailer.
不算差。是的,9%的息税前利润率。
It's not bad. Yeah. EBIT margin of 9%.
有点艰难。
Bit of a struggle.
16.5%的股本回报率。没错,这家公司历史上分红一直很慷慨对吧?是的,3.9%的股息收益率。
Return on equity of 16.5%. Yeah. It's got a historically, this business has paid a pretty good divvy, hasn't it? Yeah. 3.9% dividend yield.
利润的37.8%用于分红。
Pays out 37 8% of its profit.
比Bapcor表现好多了,不是吗?
It's going better than Bapcor, isn't it?
是啊,Bapcor最近挺难熬的,不过还算
Yeah. Bapcor's had a pretty hard time, but it's pretty
哦,是的。
Oh. Yeah.
是啊。股价在过去几年里从8美元跌到了3美元。
Yeah. Share price has fallen from $8 to $3 in the last couple of years.
去BCS吧。
Get out to BCS.
没错。划船、钓鱼、露营。虽然要多花钱,但乐趣十足。这才是最重要的。所以你打算去新南威尔士州境内、维多利亚州边界附近露营。
Yeah. Boating, fishing, camping. You do pay extra, but it's good fun. So that's all that matters. You are so you're going camping up in just inside New South Wales over the border from Victoria.
你要去莫里姆布拉。
You're going to Morimbula.
是的。
Yes.
向莫里姆布拉的各位问好。
So shout out to everyone in Morimbula.
去买些牡蛎吧。这就去
Get some oysters. Going
牡蛎养殖,或者说捕捞,随你怎么称呼。
oyster farming or Yes. Fishing, whatever you call it.
真令人兴奋。我们在维多利亚遇到的一个问题是,所有优质牡蛎都来自不同地方——虽然这或许不是开场的最佳话题,但我们确实热爱牡蛎。
Exciting. One of the issues we have in Victoria is that all the good oysters come from different I mean, it's probably not the best way to start an episode, but we love oysters.
去你的,维多利亚,
Up Yours, Victoria,
在墨尔本的餐厅我们要花8.5澳元,但这些牡蛎全都来自悉尼岩礁或科芬湾之类的地方。科芬湾开车要十七小时左右才能到。那是个美丽的地方,我们很想去看看。穆伦布拉,6块半。很容易选择。
we pay $8.50 at restaurants in Melbourne, but they all come from Sydney Rock or from, like, Coffin Bay. Coffin Bay is seventeen hours drive or something like that. Beautiful place we'd love to visit. Moorumbula, 6 And A Half. Easy choice.
很容易选择。穆伦布拉是新南威尔士州南海岸的绝美之地,不了解的人可能不知道。那里是个非常大的渔镇。你可以直接驶离大陆架,德鲁。我都能想象你——没错。
Easy choice. Moorumbula is a beautiful part of the world on the New South Wales South Coast for folks that don't know it. Very, very big fishing town. You can go off the continental shelf, Drew. I imagine you just getting Yep.
不会晕船,离岸30公里后——哦,你可是在船上长大的。得了吧。真的吗?
Getting not getting seasick, 30 k's off the coast and then Oh, grew up on a boat. Come on. Did you really?
快艇。没错。没错。尾波滑水和滑水运动。是的。
Ski boat. Yep. Yep. Wakeboarding and water skiing. Yep.
我玩过。
I did.
是啊。是啊。在墨累河上肯定会晕船的。这是肯定的。绝对没错。
Yeah. Yeah. You can definitely get seasick on the Murray. That's for sure. For sure.
但今天,我们有新闻要讲。黄金涨了。现在又跌了。我们有些关于私募信贷、苹果、亚马逊、特斯拉财报、摩根大通的消息。不过还有一堆关于小盘股ETF的问题。
But today, we've got we've got news. Gold is up. Now it's down. We've got something about private credit, Apple, Amazon, Tesla results, JPMorgan. But then we've a bunch of questions about small cap ETFs.
他们到底是怎么构建这些多元化ETF的?这些产品靠谱吗?事情可真多。不过我们今早错过了大新闻。今早?
How do they actually construct these diversified ETFs? Are they any good? Just a lot of stuff going on. We missed the big news this morning, though. This morning?
特斯拉。有点...哦,他们公布财报了吗?财报公布了。
Tesla. It was a bit oh, did they drop the results? Dropped results.
是的。市场...我是说股价只跌了1%,不过我们投资组合的缺口已经补上了,我注意到了。但那个...RASK我是说,不是你的...社区投资组合这周表现严重滞后。不知道发生了什么。特斯拉第三季度营收创纪录。
Yes. The market, I mean, the share price is only down 1%, so but the gap has closed in our portfolios, which I've noticed that. But also the, the RASK I mean, not your you know, the community portfolio is very seriously lagging this week. I'm not sure what's happened there. Record third quarter revenue for Tesla.
电动汽车季度销量创历史新高,但这主要是因为税收抵免政策即将结束。所以这有点开放性的意味,我认为马斯克非常专注于我们上周讨论过的机器人出租车和机器人技术,以及他在该领域的所有投资。据说他只用了六秒钟就提到了人工智能或机器人技术——六秒钟?
Highest quarterly sales, of electric vehicles, but this is because the tax credits were about to disappear. So it was a bit of a open ended, and I think, Musk's very focused on which we talked about last week, the robotaxis and the robotics and all the investment he's been making there. And they said it took something like six seconds for him to mention AI or robotics in his Six seconds?
是啊。好吧。这算是个记录吗?
Yeah. Okay. Is that a record?
没错。我不确定。我是说,这就是新闻标题需要的——需要些有趣但实际没什么意义的内容。不过归根结底,公司运营状况相当不错,可能正面临一个重大转变。
Yeah. I don't know. I mean, this is what you need for headlines. You need something interesting that doesn't mean anything. But but ultimately, the company cruising along reasonably well and could be looking towards a step change.
特拉维斯·阿克塞尔罗德。他
Travis Axelrod. Did
他被要求改名了吗?所以...我们刚刚为没看直播的观众点击了特斯拉今天季度电话会议的财报记录。最顶部的第一条就是特拉维斯·阿克塞尔罗德,这
he did he get asked to change his name? So the so we've just clicked on the for folks that aren't watching, we've just clicked on the earnings transcript from the Tesla quarterly call today. And the first thing that's at the top is Travis Axelrod, Which
你不知道阿克塞尔罗德吗?鲍比·阿克塞尔罗德。对冲基金经理。
You don't know. Axelrod. Bobby Axelrod. Hedge fund manager.
对,对。都很可疑。在进入问答环节前,埃隆·马斯克有些开场白。埃隆?
Yeah. Yeah. It's all dodgy. And then Elon Musk before we jump into q and a, Elon Musk has some opening remarks. Elon?
然后他说,谢谢。特斯拉正处于一个关键转折点,我们未来的战略是将人工智能引入现实世界。我认为必须强调,特斯拉确实是现实世界人工智能领域的领导者。在现实世界人工智能应用方面,无人能及我们的能力。
And he goes, thank you. We're at a critical inflection point for Tesla, and our strategy going forward is we bring AI into the real world. I think it's important to emphasize that Tesla really is the leader in real real world AI. No one can do what we can do with real world AI.
人工智能。
AI.
我对人工智能整体有相当深入的见解。我认为特斯拉汽车搭载的AI拥有当前最高的智能密度,而且只会越来越强。
I have pretty good insight into AI in general. I think that Tesla has the highest intelligence density of any AI out there in the car, and that is only going to get better.
人工智能。
AI.
所以前四句话里他提了六次AI。
So it was like AI like six times in the first four sentences. The
股价没动。我是指盘后交易时段,而且我很确定
share price didn't move. I mean, was in aftermarket, and I'm pretty sure
是下跌的
it was down
盘中下跌1%,但整个市场都在走低。尤其是黄金表现不佳。盘后下跌3.8%,不过这种情况可能很快逆转。
1% during the session, but the whole market was off. In particular, gold was off. Aftermarket is down 3.8%. So but that can that can quickly turn.
正如你之前提到的,社区投资组合遭受了不小打击。目前涨幅13%,但它曾经——
So the community portfolio, as you mentioned before, has taken a bit of a shellacking. It's down it's up 13%, but it was
那是Vulcan吗?正在充电。
Is that Vulcan? Charging.
不是?Vulcan上涨了22%。这应该是你带来的反转故事。KK,我之前表现很糟糕。对于首次收听的朋友们说明一下,
No? Vulcan is up 22%. That's gotta be the turnaround story with you. KK, I was having a shocker. So for those that don't know, you're tuning in for the first time.
Kev Toohey已经退休了。
Kev Toohey had retired.
这里是澳大利亚投资者播客,自一月份起每周六早晨,我们都在追踪由税务申报工具Nevexa提供的三个模拟投资组合。Drew选择了'万物组合',我选了被播客经理Monique命名为'最佳组合'的,以及Dizzy Rascals社区组合。社区组合中表现最好的是采矿与工程服务公司Mater Group,确实是家优质企业。
Here on the Australian investors podcast, every Saturday morning, since January, we've been tracking three fake money portfolios brought to you by Nevexa, which is a tax reporting tool. Drew picked one portfolio called the Everything Everything. I picked one called this is the best one named by Monique, our podcast manager, and the Dizzy Rascals community portfolio. In the Dizzy Rascals community portfolio, best performer is Mater Group, which is mining and engineering services. It's a really good business.
表现最差的是私募股权公司KKR,下跌了20%。
Worst performer is KKR, the private equity business down 20%.
那曾一度上涨了40%。我相当确定凯夫就是在涨了30%后开始搞些花哨活动然后退休了。
That was up 40% at one stage. I'm pretty sure Kev just went started doing junkets and retired after it was up 30%.
凯夫·托伊实际上是艾奇逊咨询公司一位非常出色的投资顾问,就是他给了我们一个小提示。但凯夫其实...我知道这个,凯夫确实投资了KKR,而且这是
So Kev Tuohy is actually a phenomenal investment consultant, at Acheson Consultants, and, he was the one that kinda gave us a tip. But Kev actually I I know this. Kev actually invests in KKR, and it's one of
他最大的持仓之一。是的。
his biggest positions. Yeah.
所以
So
不再是了,凯夫。
Not anymore. Kev.
这是由鄙人带来的最佳表现者——RPM环球公司,如果今年收购交易完成,可能会上涨约70%。我们拭目以待。家得宝下跌2.77%表现最差。德鲁说,Everything Everything投资组合全线飘红。
This is the best one brought to you by yours truly. Best performer is RPM Global, which if the TakeOver deal closes out this year, could end up about 70% higher. We'll see about that. Home Depot down 2.77% is the worst. On the Everything Everything portfolio, all in green, says Drew.
今天确实不错。他还提到了...你放进去的没错。你加入了门罗全球成长小盘基金,我们今天要讨论的就是它。是的,该基金的周马之前也上过播客。
It is today. Pretty good. He's also got the did you put them yeah. You put the Monroe Global Growth Small Cap Fund, which we're gonna talk about today Yep. Which has Chow Ma, who has appeared on the podcast before.
所以,她是那个的投资组合经理。
So, she's the portfolio manager of that.
但早期表现相当不错。是的,这对你有好处。指数表现如何?
But early on pretty good. Yeah. It's good for you. And what's the index done?
我不知道。
I don't know.
不多。我认为在这种情况下分散投资很关键。那是真正的分散投资,没有过度集中在个别持仓上。也不使用杠杆。根本不需要杠杆。
Not much. I credit, you know, diversification in this case. That's solid diversification, not not overweighting individual holdings. Leverage either. No need for leverage.
所以不包括股息。我在想能不能在这里展示总回报。你会
So not including dividends. I wonder if I could bring up total return in this. Would you
如果不使用杠杆的话表现会更好吗?
have done better if you didn't have leverage?
很可能,因为我经历了剧烈波动,凯特,股市一直异常动荡。我的天啊,格斯,2.5倍杠杆ETF。如果快速看一下,我可能损失了——这对使用杠杆的人来说是个很好的教训,因为我们经常讨论这个。你知道,BetaShares是我们财经播客的赞助商,所以我们经常讨论杠杆,但它上涨了13%。我两天前查过。
Probably because I've had severe volatility, Kate, because the stock market's been incredibly volatile. And my, gee, Gus, 2.5 times leveraged ETF. I've probably lost like, if we look at that real quick, this is a good lesson for people with gearing because we talk about this a lot. You know, BetaShares is a sponsor of our finance podcast, so we talk about gearing quite a bit, but it's up 13%. I checked that two days ago.
上涨了3%。
It was up 3%.
是吗?
Was it?
对,对。波动性衰减的问题在于你会亏损更多。亏掉的钱更难赚回来。
Yeah. Yeah. So the problem with volatility decay for people is you lose more. It's harder to win back money that you've lost.
如果你只持有ETF指数基金IVV,情况会怎样?
What would you be what would you be if you just had the ETF, the index, IVV?
我们快速看一下。GGUS对在家跟投的人来说上涨了13%。IVV不包括小额股息的话上涨了8%。所以我实际上会落后。这比指数表现要好。
Let's have a quick look. So GGUS is up 13% for people playing along at home. IVV, not including any sort of small dividends, is up 8%. So I would actually be behind. That would be better than the index.
是的。但问题在于如果不加这么高的杠杆,表现会更好。对。问题是...
Yeah. But the problem is it would have done better had it not been so leveraged. Yeah. The problem is it's
在下跌时。杠杆效应。
On the downside. Leverage.
是啊。总之,德鲁,你的投资组合上涨了17%。
Yeah. Anyway, yeah, so your portfolio is up 17%, Drew.
很棒的是我们不断被提醒,四月份我们惊慌失措时曾想调整投资组合。
It's great that we get reminded that all the time when we were freaking out in April, and we wanted to adjust our portfolios.
对啊。当时人们问,你是专业投资者吗?就像在说,什么?你们这些人
Yeah. People were saying, are you a professional investor? Like, what? Are you guys
在做这个?7%的收益。
doing this? 7%.
你怎么能算专业人士呢?
How can you be a professional?
那个月之后就没有客户了。
No clients after that month.
与此同时,ASX两百指数上涨了10%,还不包括股息。所以你的投资组合
ASX two hundred, meanwhile, is up 10%, not including dividends. So your portfolio
所有投资组合吗?
All portfolios?
大多数投资组合,是的,表现都超过了ASX两百指数。
Most portfolios, yeah, have outperformed the ASX two hundred.
那我就放心了。不过考虑到我手上有一些波动较大的科技股,这可能不是最好的基准。
I'll take that. I mean, probably not the best benchmark for it given No. I've got some turbid tech.
那相当不错。顺便说一句,Drew,我还没告诉你这件事。所以如果这对你和所有收听播客的人来说是个新闻,抱歉。你们眼前看到的这个游戏,就是我们三个人(你、我和社区)正在参与的竞赛,将在2026年迎来一次重大升级。
That's pretty good. So we've by the way, I haven't told you about this, Drew. So if this is news to you and everyone else that's listening to the podcast, sorry. This game that you see in front of you, like this competition, the three of us are playing, you, me, the community, this is going to get a massive, massive upgrade in 2026.
哦,太好了。
Oh, nice.
我现在不会透露具体内容,但可以说奖品将会非常丰厚。
I won't reveal what it is right now, but let's just say there's going to be huge prizes.
哦,我能得奖吗?我可以拿到奖品吗?
Oh, I'll get a prize? Can I get the prize?
对我们来说不是。现在是2025年。好吧,今年我们很穷。但明年,我们可能会变得富有。
Not for us. This is 2025. Alright. We're poor this year. But next year, we might be rich.
2026年将发生一件大事,不仅是在澳大利亚投资者播客上,而是遍及所有Ras播客及更广范围。所以敬请期待。请继续关注播客频道,因为可以说你可以一试身手,同时参与抽奖。太令人兴奋了,这将充满乐趣。
And it's gonna be a huge thing that's happening in 2026, not just here on the Australian investors podcast, but across all Ras podcast and beyond. So that's coming soon. So keep your ears to the podcast airways because let's just say you could try your hand, and in doing so, go in the draw. So Exciting. It's gonna be a lot of fun.
激动人心的时刻。
Exciting times.
回到今天的新闻。发生了什么,Drew?黄金暴跌。
Back to the news of the day. What's happening, Drew? Gold tanking.
在你发布关于人们在悉尼排队买黄金的消息后,黄金就暴跌了。你和另外48个人,其他有影响力的人。
After you posted about people lining up for gold in Sydney, tanked. You and 48 other people, Other influences.
别闹了。首先,这对金融界人士是个玩笑,因为悉尼马丁广场的ABC Bullion大楼,就是那种日出节目和类似垃圾节目的拍摄地。
Get lost. So first of all, this is a joke for people in finance because the ABC Bullion Building in Martin Place in Sydney, that's where, like, all sunrise and all that sort of crap's filmed.
能坐四个人,对吧?
Sits four people, doesn't it?
是啊。最近人们排队购买实物金条的场景排到了门外,对抢劫犯来说,最好的做法就是站在外面等着扒窃他们。当然不是建议你这么做,但那些金融人士会说,你可以通过基金或ETF之类的方式购买黄金。而现在金价已经暴跌了。
Yeah. There's been lines out the door for people buying physical gold bars, which if you're a robber, the best thing to do would be to stand outside that and just wait for people and pickpocket them. But not suggesting you do that, but then all these finance people are like, well, you can just buy gold through a fund or an ETF or something like this. And now gold has tanked.
没错。自从那张照片被发布后,金价实际下跌了15%左右。
Yep. It's literally down 15% or something since people posted that photo.
所以过去五天里,黄金下跌了6%。是啊。光是今天就跌了1.6%。确实,我完全搞不懂。
So in the last five days, gold is down 6%. Yeah. Just today alone is down 1.6. Yeah. It's been I I have no idea.
为什么过去五天黄金会下跌?
Why is gold down the last five days?
我觉得这像是动量推动的上涨行情,大家都在买。当市场感觉被高估时,人们就涌进来——你可以说是地缘政治风险,但很明显主要是动量因素。这类行情的尾声总会有泡沫破裂。不是说这不是好投资,但当增量买家进场时,总会在某个时点转向——不过这不意味着现在就会掉头下跌30%。完全有可能继续上涨,然后抄底者进场,就像过去五年标普500每次下跌时那样。
I mean, it was it feels like it was a momentum rally and everyone was buying it. So everyone was getting in to that as markets were felt overvalued, and moment and like geopolitical you could say geopolitical risk, but it was clear it was a lot of momentum. Like, there's always bubbles popping at the end of these things. It doesn't mean it's not a good investment, but, when the incremental buyer is going in, it's always gonna turn at some point, but that doesn't mean it's gonna turn and drop 30% now. There's every chance it continues its rally and dip buyers come in like they have in the S and P 500 every time it's fallen in the last five
年。是啊,老兄,那可是白赚的钱。但你
years. Yeah. Got that free money, mate. But you
用对冲工具得小心对吧?因为黄金没有内在价值——它的价值取决于下个买家愿意出多少钱。它只是投资组合中的对冲工具。那么在你的组合中配置多少比例才合适?你会如何反应?比如昨天刚买今天就亏7%,或者一周内亏损扩大到15%?
gotta be careful with a hedge, don't you? Because there's like there's no value that you can't how do you value gold is what the next person's willing to pay for it? It's a hedge within a portfolio. So what's an appropriate allocation to have in in it within your portfolio and are you gonna react? Like, you bought it yesterday and you're down 7% or if you falls further, you're down 15% in like a week.
你是否确信自己会持有它五到十年?否则,它就不能算作真正的对冲。
Are you comfortable that you're gonna hold it for the next five or ten years? Otherwise, it's not not gonna be a true hedge.
其实,我记得前几天看到澳大利亚超级年金的首席投资官排队为基金成员领取黄金。他离开时,我确信他说过,你知道,这是一种非上市资产。
Actually, think I saw the the chief investment officer of Australian Super lining up to get his gold for the for the for the fund members the other day. And he he on the way out, I'm pretty sure he said that, oh, you know, it's an unlisted asset.
我认为不必给它估值。我记得杰米·戴蒙公开说过黄金适合所有人还是什么的。
I think don't have to value it. I think Jamie Dimon came out and said gold's for everyone or something
类似这样的话。开个玩笑。顺便说一句,这只是个小玩笑。澳大利亚超级年金万岁。
like that. Joke. That's a little jokey joke, by the way. Long live Australian super.
贴现率的问题。我记得杰米·戴蒙说过,是的,你可以持有黄金。一旦这种情况发生,就像是,好吧。没错。不是拉里·芬克说的。
Discount rates. I think Jamie Dimon said, yeah, you could have a holding in gold. Like, as soon as that happens, it's like, alright. Yep. Not Larry Fink.
对。杰米·戴蒙,摩根大通。每当这样的人物说买加密货币或买黄金时,通常都不是
Yeah. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan. Anytime someone like that says buy crypto or buy gold, it's usually not
好兆头。等消息传到高层时,往往就是你该说'不,我不买,我要卖出'的时候了。
a great sign. By the time it makes it all the way up the tower Yeah. Is the time that you go, no. I'm not I sell. Yeah.
但是,我们上周讨论过,投资组合中配置一些黄金是我们两人都持有的。
But, some gold in a portfolio, we talked about this last week is both of us have that.
作为对冲手段仍然合理。
Still makes sense as a hedge.
是的,持有一些黄金确实合理。不过,我昨天刚和PIMCO的托尼·克雷森齐联系过,他人在纽约,所以我们是通过网络交流的。
Yeah. To have some gold because yeah. It just makes sense. However, you know, I caught up with Tony Crescenzi of PIMCO yesterday, actually. He's based in New York, so we did it via the interwebs.
这期播客非常精彩,很快就会在节目中播出。我们谈到——不知道上周是否提到过,如果重复请见谅——当你购买债券时,95%的收益来自初始收益率。
And there's a fantastic podcast. It'll be out in the show not too long. We're talking about how I don't know if I mentioned this last week, so forgive me if I did, but when you buy a bond, 95% of the return that you get from a bond comes from the starting yield.
这周我已经用上这个观点了,太喜欢了。
I love I've already used this this week.
哦,好的,不错。
Oh, okay. Cool.
对,很好。不,不是在客户播客里提到的。
Yep. That's good. No. No. Not on podcast with clients.
好的。没错。所以这个数字非常有助于人们理解,因为如果你在想,我是否应该买黄金,毕竟大家都在马丁广场排队购买,虽然它不产生利息,而且我也不确定它是否会涨——虽然我们都觉得它会涨。但我们并不确定,因为它实际上不产生收益,也不像传统意义上的资产。那么我的其他选择是什么?
Okay. Yeah. So that's so that so this is a really good number for people to wrap their heads around because if you're if you're thinking, well, do I buy gold because everyone's lining up in Martin Place that pays no interest, and I don't know how like, I think it's gonna go up, and we all kind of think it's gonna go up. But we don't know because it doesn't really produce income, and it's not like a normal quote unquote asset. So what are my alternatives?
在投资组合的防御性配置方面,目前债券和政府债券实际上是个很好的替代选择,它们的收益率大约在4%到5%之间。
Well, on the defensive side of portfolio, it's actually a very good alternative right now, which is bonds and government bonds, bonds, and they're playing like four or 5% through.
是的,介于4%到5%之间。
Yep. Between four and five.
对。这意味着对于那些不太了解的人来说,实际上就是说,如果你持有这种债券直到它到期或被赎回,或者通过ETF等方式投资,你将获得5%的回报。没错。但政府债券的违约率基本上为零,对大多数政府来说确实如此。
Yeah. So you can get you you're effectively what that means for people that don't understand is you're effectively saying, if I held this bond until it was paid back to me or the ETF or however you're getting your investments, it would then return 5%. That's right. But the but the default rate on government bonds is like basically zero Yeah. That for most governments, basically zero.
所以实际上,你是在承担‘零风险’的情况下拿回你的钱。你真正面临的风险只有利率突然大幅上升。是的,那样债券价格就会下跌。
So in effect, you're taking quote unquote no risk and you're gonna get your money back. The the only risk that you really face therefore is if interest rates suddenly go up. Significantly. Yeah. And then the bottom price goes down.
没错,这就是主要风险。但如果你愿意承担这个风险,认为利率不会继续上升或市场预期不会持续走高——目前看来确实不太可能——那么这是个相当不错的交易。
Yep. So that's the that's the major risk. But if you if you're comfortable with taking that risk, the interest rates won't continue to go up or expectations won't continue to go up, which they're not really. Pretty good trade.
这就是你在IAF或VBND这类最受欢迎的指数选项中所能获得的。
That's what you get in eye. IAF or VBND are two of the most popular index options of that.
我们把那两个都撤下来了。是的。
We pulled both of those. Yeah.
但稳稳持有,是的,四到四点五个百分点,具体取决于它
But sitting on it solid, yeah, four four and a half four to four and a half percent depending on where it
的情况。是的。是的。是的。不错。
is. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Good one.
美国那边还有其他结果吗,Drew?特斯拉显然,财报后特斯拉的买入持有卖出建议。
Other results out of The US, Drew? Tesla's obviously actually, Tesla buy hold sell after the results.
买入。有人问我要凯茜·伍德的链接。也许我也会把它放在节目说明里。好的。我是达伦,CEO,但他们是我们的竞争对手。
Buy. Kathy someone asked me for the Kathy Wood link. Maybe I'll put that in the show notes as well. Okay. Which is I'm Darren, the CEO, but they're a competitor to us.
所以,是的,我们要把史蒂文拉下马。我们会的。轻而易举。是的。你提到美国ASML有报道或简讯,德州仪器也有报道,我之前不知道德州仪器有多重要——他们显然生产所有模拟芯片,用于执行基本功能。
So, yeah, we're gonna take Steven down. We will. Easy. Yeah. You had some US ASML reported or briefly reported, Texas Instruments reported, which I didn't know how important Texas they they make all the analog chips apparently, so like to do basic functions.
这不是一份好报告。ASML,你比我更了解这个行业,是光刻机集团。他们基本上是全球独一家,难以置信吧,他们制造的机器帮助台积电为英伟达生产芯片。这次我把供应链说对了吗?
It wasn't a great report. ASML, you know this industry better than I do, is the lithography group. They're basically the only one in the world, how that's possible, that creates the machines that help the TSMC's to build the chips for NVIDIA. Is that have I got the supply chain right this time?
是的。所以他们制造了光刻机,就像一种激光设备。
Yes. So it kind of. So they've they create the lithography lithography machine, which is like a laser machine.
哦,激光。
Oh, lasers.
对。技术复杂得令人难以置信,然后它被安置在晶圆厂里,那里是制造芯片的地方。
Yeah. It's crazy technical that then sits in a foundry, which is where they make
台积电?
the TSMC?
芯片台积电。然后英伟达负责设计这些芯片,是的,购买芯片再...
Chip TSMC. And then NVIDIA is designing those chips and Yeah. Buying the chips and then
没错。但ASML在财报公布前一个月上涨了45%。所以现在问题是,它还能涨多少?股价没怎么动。销售还行。
Yeah. But ASML was up 45% in the month before it reported. So it's kinda like, where is it gonna go? It didn't move a lot. Sales are okay.
它们的销售增长目前没有达到英伟达和其他同类公司那种异常水平,我想是因为光刻机还没用完,供应链这一环节的需求仍在,这可能使其成为人工智能主题中更具防御性的投资选择,而不是购买另一端的芯片设计公司。
They're not the exceptional level of sales growth you're seeing from Nvidia and those other groups at the moment, I guess, because they're not they haven't run out of lithography machines yet and the demand for that part of the supply chain, which probably makes it a more defensive play on the artificial artificial intelligence theme as opposed to buying the chip designers at the other end.
问你个问题。当你想到德州仪器时,你会
Question for you. When you, when you think of Texas Instruments, do you
想到计算器。
think of calculator.
德鲁,当我为观众展示这个时,你会想到这个吗?德州仪器。是的。TI的A E三图形
Do do you think of this, Drew, when I bring it up on the screen for people that are watching? The Texas Instruments Yes. T I a e three graphics
现在100美元。
$100 now.
我知道。什么?所以这是个计算器。Symkos tan?Symkos tan?
I know. What? So it's a calculator. Symkos tan? Symkos tan?
是的。Symkos tan。
Yeah. Symkos tan.
我从未
I never
x的y次方?这让我想起了德州仪器。
x to the power of y? Like, this is what I remember for Texas Instruments.
数学方法。
Math methods.
但显然现在德州仪器不是那样了。
But it's obviously not that these days, Texas Instruments.
不。他们会做些像放进烤面包机里的芯片之类的,对吧?
No. They'll make some sort of, like a chip that goes in your toaster. Right?
是啊。所以他们制造的是那种不性感的芯片类型。这些确实
Yeah. So they make the the non sexy the non sexy type types of chips. Yeah. These were really
不是薯片。
Not not potato chips.
就是不是薯片。疫情期间这类企业很火,因为记得汽车短缺和
Just Not potato chips. Out of COVID, they were really popular, these types of businesses because remember the auto shortage and
是的,还有所有这些
yeah. And all
这类事情。所以你看到了。没错。过去五年确实如此,它表现如何?
that sort of stuff. So you see it. Yeah. It was really so over the last five years, what's it done?
13%。
13%.
是的。但自2010年以来,从34美元涨到了170美元。不过,这就是生意。股票代码是TXN,代表德州仪器。这个市场有几家公司在运营,但他们是其中一家大公司。未来两年收入复合年增长率为10%。
Yeah. But over since, like, 2010, it's from $34 up to a 170 But, yeah, this that's that's the business. So the ticker symbol is t x n for Texas Instruments. There are a few that operate in this market, but they're one of the big ones. Forward revenue growth, compound growth of for two years of 10% per annum.
所以市盈率是31倍。
So trades on a PE ratio of 31 times.
那相当便宜。
That's pretty cheap.
可能可能和CBS一样好。
Probably probably as good as CBS.
是啊。CBS销售额增长。没错。苹果股价创历史新高,这有点出人意料。
Yeah. CBS sales growth. Yep. Apple hit a record high. That was kind of came as a surprise.
就像是,今年顶级企业中少数几家能创下历史新高的公司之一。从最低点上涨了50%。我觉得这特别有意思。我现在急需升级设备,才发现所有存储空间都用完了。
Like, the one of the only companies in the in the top businesses to hit a record high this year. Up 50% from its lows. I thought that was super interesting. I needed to upgrade by now. I just realized all the memories out on it.
我不知道该怎么重新开始。所以昨晚那通电话之后,大概没人会打给我了。
I don't know how to get rolling again. So no one called me, probably after that phone call last night.
显然Drew Drew不小心误拨了我的电话,不知道具体几点,我当时正坐在沙发上,心想天啊,是接Drew电话还是照顾孩子。谢了。
Apparently Drew Drew randomly butt dialed me at I don't know what the time was, but I was sitting on the couch and I was like Oh god. Answer to Drew or take care of kid. Thanks.
所以如果你再打给我,
So if you ever call me again,
我不能再接你电话了。结束了。
I can't me again. It's over.
是通过iMessage的。我也不清楚怎么回事。对这类事情我有点迟钝。不过尽管新款iPhone要价2500到3000美元,更新换代周期又开始了。新iPhone的需求比上一代高出14%,在这个行业相当罕见。
Was on iMessage. I don't know how it happened. A bit of a light eye when it comes to that stuff. But the re the renewing cycle for iPhones are back even though they cost, like, 2 and a half to $3,000 for the new one. So much better demand for the new iPhone, up by 14% over the previous release, which is quite rare for this business.
这推动股价回升至历史新高。我记得当天涨幅大约有10%。你还记得第一家市值突破万亿美元的公司吗?现在你知道有多少公司市值超过万亿了吗?
And that has sent the share price back over over an all time high. I think it was up something like 10% on the day. I was looking at market you remember when the first company hit a market cap of a trillion? Yeah. Do you know how many companies are over a trillion now?
我不知道具体数量,但应该不少。
I don't know how many are, but there'd be a lot.
大概有15家。
It's like 15.
真的吗?
Really?
我查了下美元知识库(这对美国公司来说也算是个小优势)。看着那些公司,我就在想:这就值万亿?那个也是万亿?
And and I did the Knowledge of the Dollars, which is a bit of a free kick for The US companies too. Yeah. But it was I was just looking at them like, that's trillion? That's a trillion? That's there was
万亿级别的公司太多了。就连我这周买卡特彼勒T恤的好市多——顺便问下这能抵税吗?——市值4200亿美元,换算成澳元轻松超过5000亿。
so many trillion Even my honorable Costco, which is where I brought my Caterpillar t shirt this week. Thank you very much. Is that now a tax deduction? Costco is 420,000,000,000 US, so that would be over 500,000,000,000 easily Australian.
数量多到让我震惊,有些公司我根本没想到已是万亿级别。这些公司在公开和私有市场创造了惊人的财富。
There was so many it was kind of I didn't even realize some of those companies were trillion dollar companies. That's there's so much wealth being created in in private and in public markets in those companies.
摩根大通,万亿美元市值的公司。
JPMorgan trillion dollar company.
是啊,我没想到会这样。
Yeah. I did not expect that.
伯克希尔哈撒韦,1.06万亿美元市值的公司。还有什么来着,那个做电路板的叫什么?那个
Berkshire Hathaway, $1,060,000,000,000 company. What else would be, what's that thing that does the the circuit boards? The
英伟达?
NVIDIA?
定制图形定制芯片。博通。微软呢。苹果。博通1.6万亿。
Custom custom graphics custom silicon. Broadcom. What's Microsoft. Apple. Broadcom 1.6.
沙特阿美、博通、台积电、特斯拉、伯克希尔、沃尔玛。对。甲骨文、摩根大通、礼来、腾讯、Visa、万事达
Saudi Aramco, Broadcom, TSMC, Tesla, Berkshire, Walmart Yeah. Oracle, JPMorgan, Eli Lilly, Tencent, Visa, Mastercard
甚至脸书。脸书是1.8万亿美元市值的公司。
Even Facebook. Facebook is a $1,800,000,000,000 company.
是的,我就是没搞懂那个。
Yeah. I just didn't understand that.
想象一下如果他们没在元宇宙上花一分钱。那可是一万亿。
Imagine if they didn't spend any money on the metaverse. That'd be 10,000,000,000,000.
我知道。更多广告。更多广告为了
I know. More ads. More ads for
更多广告,拜托。是啊,太疯狂了。实际上有个更新发布了。我不知道听这个节目的观众里,还有谁有足够的自尊心会上X平台。
More ads, please. Yeah. It's it's crazy. There's actually an update put out. I don't know if anyone that listens to this show has enough self respect to go onto the X platform.
但如果你像我一样,最终还是会上去看看,它对投资内容很有用,就是以前叫推特的那个。因为埃隆·马斯克某种程度上是对的,特斯拉显然是汽车AI和视觉类AI的全球领导者。但他还拥有Grok,这个工具有点像ChatGPT。有人说它好得多。没错。
But if you're like me, you do eventually go on there, and it's good for investing content, formerly known as Twitter. What they did because Elon Musk is kind of right that, like, Tesla is obviously the world's leader in AI for automobiles and for visual types of AI. But they also he also owns Grok, which is this tool that's kind of like ChatGPT. Some people say it's a lot better. Yep.
我用那个。我订阅了那个
I use that. I have a subscription to the the
更高级的
more premium
Grok的未过滤版本,还有ChatGPT、Cord以及所有其他平台。因为我有点像早期的互联网,那时候不是每个人都只用IE浏览器,对吧?我想在其他人发现之前先看看这些选项。但不管怎样,他们在X平台上的做法是因为那里有太多垃圾信息和废话。
version of Grok, unfiltered, and also ChatGPT and also Cord and also all of them. Because I'm kind of like early days Internet, like, not everyone just used Internet Explorer. Right? There were other options that I wanted to kind of see what they are before everyone else figures it out. But anyway, what they've actually done on the X platform because there's so much spam and absolute rubbish and dribble on that platform.
比如,上面的垃圾信息数量简直难以置信。所以他们现在做的就是把全球发布的每一条帖子都通过Grok处理,然后Grok根据推文质量进行排名。想想看,据说每天要处理1亿条左右。
Like, the amount of crap that's on there. It's unbelievable. So what they've now done is they run every single post that gets published, every single one in the world through Grok, and then Grok ranks it based on the quality of the tweet. So think about that for a second. I think they said it's a 100,000,000 a day or something.
每天1亿条帖子、图片、视频通过Grok处理并排名。因为通常社交媒体平台用的是没人真正理解的神秘算法,但现在变得非常透明——只要AI认为内容优质就会被看到,跟粉丝数无关。
So a 100,000,000 posts, images, videos running through Grock that then rank it. Because normally, like, social media platforms rank based on mysterious algorithms that no one really understands. But now it's, like, really obvious. Like, if it is a good piece of content according to AI, it's gonna get seen by people. Doesn't matter how many followers you have.
那些都不重要了,完全基于内容和帖子质量,这是AI非常有趣的应用。既令人着迷又有点可怕
Doesn't matter any of that stuff. It's based on the content and the quality of the post, which is really interesting use of AI. Incredibly interesting and scary
与此同时。对。记得是ChatGPT还是Reddit曾和其他AI平台有过争执,因为它们从Reddit这个聊天平台抓取内容。有人提出过这个问题——你知道你的聊天回复内容主要来源是哪里吗?
at the same time. Yeah. They said was a chat GBT came or was it Reddit came out, and there was an argument between them and chat or one of the other AI platforms because they were scraping all their content from Reddit, which is a chat platform. I think someone said that. Someone brought up and, like, you know, do you know where most of content from your chatty bitty responses come from?
哦,Reddit。没错。好吧。
Oh, Reddit. Yep. Alright.
那爸爸在哪里
Where does but where does that's where the dad
笑话的来源。所以感谢Reddit。
jokes come from. So thanks to Reddit.
谢谢你,Reddit。是啊是啊。就是这样。隐私其实是一种幻觉,而且我觉得现在互联网上的知识产权也是一种幻觉,因为你发布的任何内容都可能被这些机器人抓取。
Thank you, Reddit. Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's it. Like, privacy is an illusion and, like, I guess, intellectual property on the Internet now is an illusion because, really anything that you publish online could be picked up by one of these bots.
实际上它的运作方式有点疯狂。
It's kinda crazy actually how it works.
我有点惊讶亚马逊这周的情况——当时我正在篮球训练,旁边的人试图登录Xero。但亚马逊网络服务全球宕机了大约十五小时。股价却纹丝不动。所以连Zoom都上不去。我记得你们聊天时也提到这事了吧?
I was a bit surprised that Amazon this week I was sitting at basketball training, the guy next to me was trying to log into Xero. But Amazon Web Services was down across the world for, like, fifteen hours. Share price didn't move. So you couldn't get onto Zoom. I think was that in one of your chats as well?
我当时在一个工作群聊里,大家都说上不了Zoom。这些平台全都无法访问,因为它们都托管在...没错...托管在亚马逊上。但股价依然没波动。我就想,要是澳洲航空、Optus、Medibank或者那700家遭遇断网的澳大利亚公司出这种事——不是黑客攻击而是服务中断——股价肯定会有波动,造成影响。现在三分之二的互联网都依赖亚马逊,但居然无所谓。
I was in one of the a work chat or something, and it was like, you couldn't get on Zoom. You couldn't get on all these platforms because they're all hosted Yep. On And the share price didn't move. I'm like, if that was Qantas or Optus or Medibank or the 700 companies in Australia that had outages or there was no hacks, not outages, it would move like, it have an impact. Now two thirds of the Internet relies on Amazon, but doesn't matter.
本播客由Luke Larrative和Seneca金融解决方案团队为您呈现。Seneca澳大利亚小盘股基金过去十二个月表现优异,随着小盘股大幅上涨。你们熟悉的Ben和Luke经常做客节目解答问题。但您知道他们管理着一支0%管理费的基金吗?当然,超额收益部分会收取基于RBA现金利率的绩效费。
This podcast is proudly brought to you by Luke Larrative and the team at Seneca Financial Solutions. The Seneca Australian Small Companies Fund has been one of the best performing funds over the past twelve months as small caps have really ripped higher. You know Ben, you know Luke, they come on the show all the time and answer your questions. But did you know they have a fund with a 0% management fee? It's got a performance fee over the RBA cash rate, of course.
看到这些长期参与RAS社区的老朋友发展得这么好真令人欣慰。我知道很多听众对Seneca感兴趣。如果您想了解更多关于Seneca基金的信息,如何投资,或者预约通话讨论投资策略、持仓情况,以及在投资Seneca小盘股基金这类管理基金前想咨询的任何问题,请访问senecafs.com.au。请注意澳大利亚小盘股基金仅面向专业合格投资者开放。
But it's great to see these guys doing so well having been part of the RAS community for a very long time. I know a lot of you are interested in Seneca and like to hear from the guys. So if you want to learn more about the Seneca fund, how to invest with them, or even just book in a call and a time to discuss the strategy or the holdings and whatever you might wanna ask before investing in a managed fund like Seneca's Small Companies Fund, you can head to senecafs.com.au. That's senecafs.com.au. Don't forget with the Australian Small Companies Fund that it's a wholesale fund for professional, sophisticated investors only.
请记住,不要仅仅依赖过往业绩来决定对任何策略的投资。你需要关注的是背后的流程、团队的一致性,以及整体策略。所以请访问senecafs.com.au,听完这期播客后,你可以找到所有相关的披露文件,甚至可以预约团队电话、发送邮件或取得联系。
And always, you know, don't just rely on past performance to make an investment in any strategy. You wanna focus on the process and the consistency behind the voices, the team, and, I guess, the strategy writ large. So go to senecafs.com.au. After listening to this podcast, you can find all the relevant disclosure documents. You can even book a call with the team, send them an email, or get in contact.
他们还有个很棒的免费邮件列表,就在senecafs.com.au。挺有意思的——我最近和一位邻居聊天,他是资深网络安全工程师,经常出国工作什么的。
They've got a great free mailing list as well as you know. That's senecafs.com.au. It's all good. I was it's interesting. I was watching a I was speaking to one of my neighbors actually who is a senior cybersecurity engineer, and he's like, he goes overseas and whatever.
记得去年七月Cloud CrowdStrike宕机事件吗?所有机场都受影响。他告诉我CrowdStrike只给了用户一年折扣作为补偿。
Remember when Cloud CrowdStrike went down Yeah. And all the airports this was last July. Yeah. He was telling me all that CrowdStrike did was just offer people a discount. They're like, we'll give you a discount for a year.
他说业内根本没人换服务商。毕竟,你能怎么办?对不了解的人来说,CrowdStrike是全球顶尖的AI网络安全公司,很难简单解释清楚。
And he's like he said in the industry, like, no one left. Yeah. Because he's like, what are you gonna do? What are gonna do? Like, CrowdStrike for people that don't know is like the world's leading AI kind of, it's hard to explain, leading AI cybersecurity firm Yeah.
它专门防御网络攻击,微软等大平台都在用。但Drew你想过吗?如果AWS宕机了,你能怎么办?
That helps fight against, you know, attacks. And, it's used by all of the big platforms like Microsoft and these types of things. But what are gonna do, Drew? If AWS goes down, what are gonna do?
就像火车延误时给你4美元代金券,或者航班延误补偿。你得主动申请才能拿到这点补偿——谁会为延误两个半小时去领4美元啊?
It's like when the when you get a train delayed or they give you like a $4 voucher from your your flight being delayed. Like, if you got a train delayed, you have to go apply for the discount to go and get it. It's like, well, no one's gonna do that. Yeah. We left you two and a half hours late, but here's $4.
想象一下,如果你每年付给CrowdStrike 1700万美元服务费却得到这种补偿。这就像我们前几天聊的特斯拉——某些公司获得的市场支配力太可怕了。特斯拉把车载网络订阅费从9美元涨到100美元的话,你还用吗?
I assume that's what it felt like if you were crowd paying CrowdStrike $17,000,000 a year. It just shows you that you you were talking about the other day, the Tesla, like the market power that some of these companies are getting and why this why that can be so valuable is what Tesla increased their cost of mobile subscription or something. You're like, if it went what if it went from 9 to a $100, would you still use it?
嗯,从'是的'开始。那我该怎么办?我可不想在没有网络的全自动驾驶车里。比如,你能用蓝牙吗?支付。
Well, it went from yeah. Well, what am I gonna do? I'm not not gonna have Internet in my fully autonomous vehicle. Like Can you can you Bluetooth? Pay.
可能吧。当你回到家,你的特斯拉会自动连接WiFi,并自动上传所有数据。不过,我其实在和节目的一位忠实粉丝聊天,就是以前上过这个播客的Anirban Mahanthi,他告诉我特斯拉内部逻辑组件是如何运作的。实际上,自动驾驶或全自动驾驶监督的大部分处理技术,很多自动驾驶技术都是在特斯拉内部解释和运行的。所以并不像每次接近环岛时它都需要问'嘿,Chuchibichi,我该怎么做?'
Probably. When you get home, you can your Tesla automatically picks up on your Wi Fi, and it automatically uploads all the data. But, yeah, I was chatting to a really great fan of the show, actually, Anirban Mahanthi, who used to appear on this podcast, and he was telling me how the different components of logic work inside of Tesla. And a lot of the actual processing of autopilot or full self driving supervised, a lot of the self driving technology actually is interpreted and run inside the Tesla. So it's not so much like it needs to every time I approach a roundabout and it's driving me through the roundabout, it's like, hey, Chuchibichi, what do I need to do?
比如,它不会那样做。
Like, doesn't do that.
实际上它是
It actually is
它全部在车上处理。是的。这就是为什么它如此先进,因为它基本上就是一个带轮子的大电脑。
it it processes it all on the car itself Yeah. Which which which is why it's so advanced because it's got it's basically one big computer just on wheels.
还有电池。
And a battery.
是啊。这两方面都很厉害。没概念。运作得。是的。
Yeah. And it's just amazing at both of those things. There's no idea. Works. Yeah.
确实如此。
Exactly.
你肯定不希望有任何延迟,当你
You wouldn't want any lag when you
想象一下如果是那样的话。所以
Imagine if it's like that. So
然后你开车
And you drove
Chat GBD。嘿。好主意。如果你想的话可以在这里右转。
Chat GBD. Hey. Great idea. You can turn right here if you want.
不过你开车去了酒吧又回来了。
You drove to the pub and back, though.
是啊。完全看不见也一样,Drew。不。所以
Yeah. Fully blind as well, Drew. No. So
这方面是有规定的,对吧?
There is rules to around that, aren't there?
对,对,对。所以如果你不知道也没在社交媒体上关注我,我会看看是否掌握了这个信息,是否能提出来。但对于没在看的人
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So if if you don't know and you don't follow me on social media, I'll see if I've got this I'll see if I can bring this up. But for people that aren't watching
你现在提起的不是你那顶Instagram语法帽吧?
This is not your Instagram grammar hat you're bringing up, is it?
不,不是。还挺...嗯,还行吧。我进不去。
No. It isn't. It's pretty yeah. It's okay. I can't get in.
谢天谢地。Facebook把我封了,反正我也登不上去。但简单来说,我向人们展示了现在在澳大利亚可以完全使用全自动驾驶功能,速度超快。这意味着很多人之前不知道,现在依然不知道——你可以去任何地方,而你的特斯拉会载你到达。
Thank goodness. Facebook's blocked me, so I can't get even to it anyway. But effectively, yeah, I showed people that effectively, you can you can now full you can use full self driving here in Australia. Super fast. So what it means is people didn't really know this and still don't know this, but you can drive anywhere and your Tesla will drive you there.
需要输入目的地吗?比如你设定好地址它就开始行驶?还是说你得先上路再接管?
Do you have to put in, like do you put in the destination and it just starts going, or do you go on the road and you go you take over?
是啊。前几天我继父过来带我试驾。他是个留着八字胡的家伙,他朋友有辆千匹马力的V8发动机车,懂吧?
Yeah. So my stepdad came over the other day and took me for a spin. Now he's a guy who's got a handlebar, mustache. He's got a his mate's got a thousand horsepower v eight. Right?
他当时就那样,坐进新买的特斯拉双电机版,然后惊呼‘卧槽’。而我心想,哦,但关键是——我其实没在开车,只是踩了脚油门。你可以直接跟它对话,比如‘去墨尔本的Costco’之类的。
And he was like, got in the new Tesla, a dual motor, and he's like, holy shit. And I was like, oh, but here's the thing. Also, I'm not driving. I just put my foot down. So you can you can you can talk to it and you can say, Costco, you know, Melbourne or something like that.
它会调出谷歌地图,然后全程自动驾驶带你到目的地。
It will come up in Google Maps, and then it will drive you the whole way there.
是啊。
Yeah.
了解维多利亚州地理的人应该知道,我从东部郊区出发,就是靠近亚拉谷的远郊,一路穿过城市开到北郊的佩卡特,然后它自己开回来。接着我又从那里开到海湾尽头的弗林德斯,全程都是自动往返。重要的是,它还开了一段土路——这是我特意测试的,毕竟得确保这玩意儿靠谱,别再出人命。对。
So for people that understand Victoria's geography, I went from the Eastern Suburbs, like far Eastern suburbs towards the Yarra Valley. I went all the way over to the Northern Suburbs through the city in Pekkaert, and then it drove back. And then I went from there to Flinders, which is down the bottom of Bay, and then it drove back all by itself. And importantly, it drove on a dirt road, which I wanted to because I'm obviously trying to test this thing out and hopefully make sure no one else dies. Yeah.
总有一天能放心到在车上睡着。是啊。
Be able and be able to fall asleep one day. Yeah.
山间土路上横着根树枝,我当时就想‘来活儿了,看看这车怎么处理’。结果它评估出路旁有片草地,就直接压过去绕开树枝继续开。
There was a branch down on the road on a dirt track. So on this dirt track up in the hills, and I was like, oh, here we go. Let's see what this thing does. And it actually assessed that the the beside the road, there was a grass patch. And so it just got to it and then went around onto the grass and then continued.
我当时就觉得‘行,这车心里有数’。还以为它会停车让我下去搬树枝呢。
And I was like, okay. So Knows what it's doing. I thought it get out, stop, robot, and get out, move the branch.
是啊,继续走吧。
Yeah. Keep walking.
嗯,嗯,不,但它确实如此。所以我知道前几天我还在给你和朋友发短信,但这确实是我见过的最了不起的技术。
Yeah. Yeah. No. But it does. So it's I know I was texting you and a friend the other day, but it is the most remarkable technology I've ever seen.
是啊,看起来太棒了。
Yeah. It looks amazing.
是啊,它确实、确实、实际上非常不可思议。前几天我去Chemist Warehouse,我就想,好吧,我去Chemist Warehouse看看怎么样。它把我带到了目的地,然后当我到达Kemis Warehouse时,它显示了所有可用停车场的地图。
Yeah. It is it is it actually is incredible. I went to Chemist Warehouse the other day, and I was like, okay. I'll go to Chemist Warehouse and see how it goes. So it got me to the place, and then it showed a map when I arrived at Kemis Warehouse of all the available car parks.
我按了一下那个按钮,它发出哔的一声,然后自动倒车入库。这太酷了。然后我甚至不用启动它,因为它是电动的,但当我坐进去后,屏幕上显示‘我回家’。我只需要轻踩一下油门,它就会说‘我会带你离开停车场,下山,上主路,然后回家’。
And I pressed on the thing. I went beep, that one, and then it reversed me in. That's pretty cool. And then I you don't even turn it on because it's electric, but as soon as I sat in, I I go home on the screen. I just need to press this accelerator for a split second, then it goes, I'll take you the rest of the way out of the car park, down the hill, onto the main road, and home.
‘监督模式’意味着你不能——我猜你必须低于0.05,而且必须坐在驾驶座上。这只是目前的法律要求。
And the supervised means you can't be you have to be below point o five, I'm guessing, and you have to be in the driver's seat. And that's just a legal requirement at the moment.
是啊,我很高兴你直接提到了0.05。酒精相关的。你说你去了
Yeah. I'm glad that you jumped straight to Point o five. Alcohol related You said you went to
斯温顿的酒店。
Swindon's hotel.
所以
So
这自然会发生。
it's naturally gonna happen.
我怎么能逃脱这个呢?所以没错。德鲁,你说得对。所以你不能...你是掌控者。必须始终有人类在掌控,我认为这是人们需要理解的一个非常重要的事情,那就是无论别人在网上试图让你相信什么,你仍然掌握着控制权。
How can I get away with this? So yeah. So that's correct, Drew. So you you you can't like, you're in control. There there always has to be a human in control, and I think that's a really important thing for people to understand is, like, you still are in control no matter no matter what people try and make you believe on online.
我要为观看的人提出这一点,如果你在听,我会带你了解。如果你在听并且想观看Rask播客,你可以直接去YouTube,我们在那里进行所有内容。现在你在这个页面上看到的,是我们Rask的Cloudflare账户。这再次表明Cloudflare是全球最大的网络安全和管理公司之一。但你在屏幕上实际能看到的是,所有当前或最近在RASK网站上爬取数据的不同AI机器人。
I'm gonna bring this up for people that are watching, and if you're listening, I'll walk you through it. If you are listening and you ever wanna watch a Rask podcast, you can just head to YouTube where we do everything over there. So what you can see in front of you on this page, this is our Cloudflare account at Rask. So this shows you Cloudflare is, again, one of the world's biggest cybersecurity and management companies. But what you can actually see on the screen is you can see all of the different AI bots that are currently trolling or have recently trolled the RASK websites.
你可以看到最顶部,目前爬取我们网站最活跃的是Meta的机器人,也就是Facebook的。然后是微软的,接着是OpenAI的,谷歌的机器人(仅用于互联网),苹果的搜索引擎机器人,亚马逊的Perplexity,Anthropic的Claude,字节跳动的Byte Spider(即TikTok的)。
And you can see at the very top, the most popular bot that's currently scraping our website is the Meta, one, Facebook one. Then it's the one from Microsoft. Then it's the OpenAI OpenAI, the Google bot, which is just for Internet. Apple's one Look for your search engine. Amazon's Perplexity, Claude Bianthropic, Byte Spider, which is ByteDance or TikTok.
所以这是中国政府爬取网站的情况。你可以看到所有这些。这就是AI训练的方式。AI是通过互联网上可获得的数据进行训练的。这是一个重要的认识,因为当你考虑依赖这些信息时——你之前开玩笑说你的所有笑话都来自Reddit和ChatGPT,因为ChatGPT的笑话都是从Reddit上获取的。
So that's the Chinese government scraping the website. So you can see all of these things. Now this is how AI is trained. So AI is trained on the data that's available on the Internet. And so this is an important understanding is because when you think about relying on the information that comes you made the joke before that all of your jokes come from Reddit and ChatJPT because ChatGPT source all the jokes from Reddit.
这正是我们所见到的现象——内容与AI应用方式形成了一个完整的循环。人们更多将其当作搜索引擎使用,而它本质上只是在展示谷歌搜索原本就会呈现的内容。这就是为什么如果你要为Alphabet看涨,Drew本周采访了来自Magellan的Pullen(叫什么名字来着?)?这期播客本周早些时候发布,非常精彩。
And this is actually what we're seeing is kind of this full circle loop on content and on the way AI is being used. People are using it more like a search engine, and all it's really doing is just showing you what Google search was showing you, which is why if you were building a bull case for Alphabet, Drew talked to Pullen from what's his name? First name? From Magellan this week. It's a great podcast out earlier this week.
没错。如果你还没听过那期播客,他们讨论了Alphabet。但如果你现在看好Alphabet股票(这可是3万亿美元市值的股票啊Drew),理由就是它已实现闭环——如今谷歌AI Gemini正以远超同行的速度变得更智能,因为每天仍有数十亿人在使用并为其贡献内容。
Yeah. If you haven't listened to it on the and they talked about Alphabet in that podcast. But if you had a bull case for Alphabet stock right now, this is a $3,000,000,000,000 stock, Drew, it would be that it basically has come full circle. And now Gemini, which is the Google AI, is now getting so much more intelligent, way faster than everyone else because still, every single day, billions of people are using it and contributing content to it. Yeah.
人们没意识到自己其实在喂养这个叫Gemini的庞然大物(还有DeepMind)。真是有趣的时代。Drew,我们现在得回答些问题了,我想从小盘股问题开始可以吗?
Without realizing that it's you're kinda just feeding this gigantic thing called Gemini Yeah. Which and DeepMind. So really interesting times. Now, Drew, we do have to get to some of these questions, and I would like to start with the small cap one if that's alright with you.
当然可以。
Yeah. Of course.
如果我们在节目中解答您的问题(我们非常欢迎提问),请通过播客播放列表里'提问'链接或YouTube描述区提交。但请注意我们仅提供通用财务建议,因不了解您的具体需求目标,最适合获取个性化建议的渠道还是通过持牌可信的财务顾问(描述区也有相关链接)。
So if we do answer your question on the show, we absolutely love them. Send them in via the link in your podcast playlist that says ask a question or in the YouTube description. But remember that we are strictly limited to general financial advice only. We don't know your needs, goals, objectives, so the best place to get one on one advice that's right for you is through a financial adviser, a licensed and trusted financial adviser. You can find a link to financial advice in the description as well.
重要提示:当我们讨论ETF、养老基金、保险等产品时,它们都有产品披露声明,投资前务必阅读。好了,我可能从这个'沉默但非致命'的问题开始。
And importantly, when you hear us talk about things like ETFs, super funds, insurance, they all have a product disclosure statement. Be sure to read them before you invest or do anything. So here we go. So I'm actually I might start with this one, silent, not deadly. Like this one.
你常提到运用投资理论,关于自建理论体系有什么建议?Drew你会写具体的投资论纲吗?
You often you have often mentioned using an investment thesis. What's your advice on writing your own? Drew, do you ever write out an investment thesis?
我已经把我们的投资理论写了出来,并且定期更新它,虽然我不一定总是全部重写。但我在想,我们是怎么得出这个理论的?你自己是怎么写的?部分源于早期经验,但更多来自阅读和研究。我觉得这就是那种不能凭空想出来的东西,比如突然说‘哦,我要投资加密货币’。
I've written out our investment thesis and kind of updated it quite regularly, and I don't necessarily write like rewrite it all the time. But I think how did how did we get to it? Like, how do you write your own? It came from part of it came from early experience, but then a lot from reading, and study as well. I think that's where like, you just can't come up with and go, oh, I'm backing crypto.
它必须是经过深思熟虑的,需要整合大量信息才能构建起来。不过你知道,我热爱写作——无论是用聊天工具还是不用。在AI时代之前我就这么做了。但如果做对了,它真的非常核心。我们把投资理论称为更深层的东西。
Like, it's gotta be, like, considered, and there's a lot of inputs that have to go into it to build it. But I love as you know, I love writing even with chat and without chat. I used to do it all pre AI. But it it's so central if you get it right. Like an investment thesis, we we call it more deeply.
你的投资理论可能包含12条宽泛的指导原则,涵盖你的投资范围。你在网站上写得非常精彩。但这必须转化为投资政策。所以你可以有理论框架和思维方式,但还需要具体执行和遵循的方法。在我们看来,投资政策是投资成功最稳定的预测指标——无论是未来基金、加拿大养老金,还是桥水这些超大型成功投资机构,它们都有明确的投资政策、投资理论,并且白纸黑字写下来。
Your investment thesis might be all the, you know, the 12 broad guides between what you're investing. You've you've you've written it incredibly well on your website. But that has to that has to go into an investment policy. So you can have a thesis and the way you think but then you need to have a how it can actually be executed and how it can be followed. And an investment policy is like in our view the most consistent predictor of success in investing whether it's the future fund, whether it's Canadian pension, like all these all these massive successful investors, Bridgewater, all these groups, they have an investment and they have an investment, policy and they have an investment thesis and it's stated.
这些内容会被定期审视。如果行不通也不必死守。但它们都有一套在艰难时期或需要重大决策时可以依靠的准则。
It's reviewed. It doesn't mean you have to stick to it if it doesn't doesn't work. But they all have something that they can lean back on when times are tough and when they have to make big decisions.
没错。我喜欢这个区分——你把投资政策声明(有时简称IPS)和投资策略区分得很清楚。然后你还提到了黄金法则,你是这么称呼它们的吧?
Yeah. I like it. So that's good because you draw on the distinction between an investment policy statement, sometimes called an IPS, investment policy statement, which is like the investment overall or what's your strategy. Yeah. And then because you got the golden I think you called them the golden rules or something.
黄金法则。
Golden rules.
对。然后在下一层是投资理论。我们讨论投资理论时,通常是指针对单个证券或某个主题的。确实如此。
Yeah. Yeah. Then underneath, you have an investment thesis. And when we talk about investment thesis, that's normally per security or through a theme or something like that. And so yeah.
因此,我认为我会在我们全新且完全免费的课程——价值投资者项目中讲解这些内容,该课程已在Rask网站上全面开放。在那里,我会谈到如何使用Notion。我们分析师团队过去经常使用Notion。本质上,你需要建立投资流程和现行投资政策的核心支柱。比如,假设你想寻找高质量、低估值且收入增长的公司。
So for I I think that I'd go through this in our new in our now free course, which is our value investor program, which is fully available and free on the Rask website. In there, I talk about how you can use Notion. We used to use Notion a lot as an as an analyst team. So in there, effectively, what you would want to have is the kind of the core pillars of your investment process and your investment current policies. So say, for example, you wanted to find companies that were high quality, low valuation, and growing revenue.
因为你认为增长很重要——质量、价值、增长三位一体。你需要围绕这些要素在Google文档或Notion等工具中构建投资论点模板。模板里应包含提示性问题,例如:我如何确认这家公司的高品质?哪些指标能证明其高品质?诸如此类。
Like because you thought that, like, growth was important. Quality, value, growth. What you would do is you would structure your investment thesis template in Google Docs or Notion or something like this around those things. So you would have prompts in there in your template, and it would be like, why do I know this how do I know this company is high quality? What what metrics tell me this company is high quality And so on and so forth.
对估值部分同样操作:当前估值是多少?与同行相比如何?增长维度也同理。那些糟糕的投资论点最常缺失的,正是卖出理由的阐述。
And you do the same for value. Like, what's the valuation? What's the valuation relative to peers? And then you do the same thing for growth. The thing that's always missing from an investment thesis that's done poorly is the reasons that you would sell.
是的。查理·芒格反复强调逆向思维的重要性——知道何时卖出是投资中最关键的课题之一。何时我的投资逻辑会失效?你可能会说:我关注了增长、估值、质量三大要素。
Yeah. So Charlie Munger obviously talked a lot about inversion, which is one of the most important things in investing is when do I know to sell this company? So when does my thesis break? Now you could say, well, I've got growth. I've got value.
你可以在六个月、一年、两三年后重新验证这个逻辑。如果发现最初的投资标准不再成立,就该卖出。或者标准本身发生了变化,而你对这种变化感到满意。
I've got quality. And you could retest that thesis in six months and a year, two years, three years, you could be like, okay. The original rules of my investment no longer stack up. Therefore, I should sell it. Or maybe they've changed and you're happy with the change.
但如果在投资伊始就明确列出三条卖出理由——比如达到目标估值、扩张至我认为不可投资的区域等——当这些情况真实发生时,
But if you at the very beginning, if you're like, here are three reasons that I would sell this company that I'm buying right now. So it might be like, well, it's it's reached my valuation target. It is you know, it's expanded into an a region that I don't think is investable or something like that. And then those things come true. Like, you then see that as an update.
你就会意识到:要么当初的判断有误,要么现在就是卖出时机。这确实是最关键的环节,也是我建议你在自主撰写投资论点时最需要重视的部分。
You're like, well, my previous self was either wrong or it's time to sell. Yeah. And I think that's the most popular thing. So that would be my advice for writing your own.
必须始终包含退出策略。我的意思是,我认为论文中经常缺失的是你的目标。每个人都想要在市场好时获得高于平均水平的回报,在市场差时不亏损,但实际上应该思考你需要多少回报才能实现目标。这应该是你所有投资思路、论文等的基础。
Have always include an exit strategy. I mean, thing I think is often missing from a thesis is what your objective is. Everyone like, everyone wants the best return when mark better than average when market's good and not negative when markets are bad, but actually thinking about what return you need to achieve your goals. It should be the basis on which all your investment thoughts, thesis, everything comes in.
没错,确实如此。我们收到了另一个问题,我在这里提一下。Average Joe留言说:'嘿,Owen和Drew,很想听听你们对ETF QSML的看法。'
Yep. Definitely. So we did get another question which I'm just bringing something up here. But Average Joe wrote in and said, howdy, Owen and Drew. Keen to hear your thoughts on the ETF QSML.
你认为这是普通投资者进行小盘股分散投资的合适方式吗?我知道你们通常避开这个领域的ETF,但似乎大多数主动管理基金都被所谓的'复杂调查'挡在小盘股门外。感谢你们的见解,请继续讲那些老爸笑话。你们最近在澳大利亚退休播客上收到了热烈反馈,有人说'我爱Drew的笑声'。你们怎么看?
Do you think it's a decent way for the average investor to get some small cap diversification? I know you typically steer clear of ETFs in this space, but it seems like most of the active managers are locked behind the quote, unquote sophisticated investigate for small caps. Appreciate your insights, and please keep the dad jokes coming. You actually received some cracking feedback over on the Australian Retirement Podcast recently where someone was saying, I love Drew's laugh. What do say?
'我爱Drew的笑声,真希望能分享一些。'不太对吧。我当时就...哦...
I love Drew's laugh. I wish I could have some of that. Not quite. And I was and I was like, oh.
这让我想去找Joe Rogan。
Makes me wanna go and get Joe Rogan.
是的,Joe Rogan。对于不了解的人,QSML是Van Eck推出的一只专注于全球小盘股的ETF。所以它不是澳大利亚小盘股,而是全球小盘股。
Yeah. Joe Rogan. So QSML, for people that don't understand, is an ETF from Van Eck that is focused on global small caps. So it's not Australian small caps. It's global small caps.
它有16亿...对,16亿美元的投资规模。
It's got 1,600,000,000.0. Yeah. $1,600,000,000 invested.
规模可观。
Solid size.
是的。这是一只大型ETF,已投资16亿美元,管理费率为0.59%。对ETF来说偏高,但对VENEK来说很典型。
Yeah. It's a big ETF. It's got $1,600,000,000 already invested. 59 or 0.59% is the management fee. So it's on the higher end for an ETF, but that's pretty typical for VENEK.
它的目标是基于全球小盘股指数的公司。
It targets companies based on the entire small cap index, like, the world.
你会称它为半主动管理型吗?
Would you call it semi actively managed?
是的。因为它采用四步筛选流程:先覆盖MSCI除澳大利亚外全球小盘股指数所有公司,再根据股本回报率、盈利波动性、负债权益比等指标进行质量评级,筛选出前150名,最后按质量评分加权配置。
Yeah. Because it's got, like, it's got a four step process. So it's like it says from the website, it goes looks at all companies in the Miski world ex Australia small cap index, then it rates the companies for quality based on return on equity, earnings variability, debt to equity, etcetera. It selects the top 150, and then from there, it weights them according to their quality score.
所以这是有规则约束的主动管理。
So it's active managed, but rules based active management.
是基于规则的。我们常讨论用规则的原因在于——对小盘股确实需要规则约束,否则可能选到一堆垃圾股,在全球市场尤其如此。
It's rules based. Yeah. But it's the reason why people use rules as we you and I discuss a lot is that effectively, you kinda need some rules for small caps because sometimes you end up with all just duds Yeah. Particularly on the global stage.
总的来说,追求品质是件好事。
So And quality is a good thing to be looking for generally.
是啊,绝对是,对吧?然后就像,甚至在这里,
Yeah. Definitely, isn't it? Right? And then there's like, even here,
我想
I think
我刚看到我们的好朋友。
I just saw our good friend.
我确实发现了。我唯一的困扰是其中的滞后性。比如,最终你会看到很多热门主题中的头部公司其实是三个月前流行的。这说得通吗?因为它们品质提升后,在投资组合中的比重增加,但市场却转向了。
I just find it yeah. My only challenge with this is the lag that comes through it. Like, you end up having a lot of the top companies in the theme that was popular three months ago. That makes sense? Because they improve in quality, then they get increase in the portfolio, but then the market turns.
那就是Evacore。是半导体集团,对吧?
That's that's Evacore. That's the semiconductor group, isn't it?
也许吧。直觉上。Texas Roadhouse,不是吗?我原以为是德州仪器。
Maybe. Intuitive. Texas Texas Roadhouse, isn't I I thought it was gonna be Texas Instruments.
听起来像部电影。
Sounds like a movie.
这里有很多你不认识的公司,这可能是件好事,因为
There's a lot of companies in here you don't know, which is probably a good thing because
Flex。
Flex.
这意味着你没有接触过它们。但是,没错,ETF,如果我们回顾过去十二个月的基本数据——因为这将与接下来所有例子保持一致——这只ETF在过去十二个月的回报率为12.36%。
It means that you don't have exposure to them. But, yeah, the ETF, if we just bring it back to brass taxes over the past we'll just do twelve months because that's consistent across all these examples I'm about to use. The ETF has returned over the past twelve months 12.36%.
基本上没有收益,只有0.33%。
And no income, basically, point three three.
是的,12.36%。但如果我们看看Monroe全球中小盘成长基金,大家可能记得这只基金,因为我们曾邀请周玛上过节目。她去年做客《澳洲投资者播客》,那期节目精彩绝伦。她是最优秀的基金经理之一。
Yeah. So 12.36%. But then if we go to, say, the Monroe Global Growth Small and Mid Cap Fund, people may remember this fund because we had Chow Ma on the show. She came on the Australian Investors Podcast last year, and her episode was an absolute cracker. She's one of the best.
我超爱采访她的过程。太棒了。
I love she becomes interviewed her. Incredible.
好的,我会记下来并确保放进节目备注里。炒面
Yeah. I'm gonna put it down and make sure I put that in the show notes. Chow mein
我确信每次上节目时都试图汲取她的能量。
I'm sure I try and channel her energy whenever I come on here.
她非常出色。这只基金过去一年回报率达39%。不过这是一年的业绩,算是比较新的基金。我提这个主要是作为例子。
She is brilliant. So that fund has returned 39% over the past year. Now that's one year's results. So it's a relatively new fund. So I just wanted to bring this up as an example.
但如果我们看Nick Cregan管理的Fairlight基金
But then if we look at the Fairlight fund, which is from Nick Cregan
所以这些都是中小盘股,中盘?
So these are small and mid caps, mids?
展开剩余字幕(还有 51 条)
没错。这是Fairlight全球中小盘基金,数据是从2025年9月至9月。这只基金去年回报率是18...抱歉,去年实际回报是3.7%。三年回报率为16%。
Yep. So this is the the Fairlight Global Small and Midcap Fund, and these are all numbers for September till September 2025. This fund over the last year has returned 18 sorry. The the last year has returned 3.7%. Over three years, it's returned 16%.
所以这些结果存在波动性,对吧?
So there's variability here in the results. Right?
巨大的。
Massive.
但从长期来看,Fairlight的表现确实出色。许多小盘基金也表现优异。所以我想说的是,QSML可能是个不错的选择,但它正如你所说,Drew,是半主动型的。是的,而且它并非
But over the long term, Fairlight has outperformed Yeah. And many of the small cap funds have outperformed. So I guess my point is here, QSML could be a good one, but it's semi active as you say, Drew. Yep. And It's not
最差的。
the worst.
不是最差的。但我要在《澳大利亚投资者》播客分析中向大家展示幕后数据。Drew,这是我唯一一次见到这种情况。
It's not the worst. But I'm gonna show people behind the curtain on the Australian investors podcast analytics. This is the only time I've ever seen this, Drew.
真的吗?我可是经常看这个。
Really? I'm on this all the time.
但就是这张特定图表对吧?当我们发布与Chow Ma的那期播客时,我想这就是当时的情况
But this particular chart. Right? So when we published the podcast with Chow Ma, I think this was what was
哦,这样
Oh, so
2025年6月5日,对吧?对,我想上面是这么写的。
The 06/05/2025. Right? Yeah. I think that's what it says.
差不多一年前。没错。
Nearly a year ago. Yep.
今年早些时候。
Earlier this year.
1月5日。
Fifth of Jan.
现在为听众朋友们解释一下:这张图表显示下载量先是上升,然后平稳维持了270天或250天,之后又直线上升。对吧?
Now for people that are listening, I'm gonna walk you through it. The chart kinda goes up for number of downloads, then it goes flat for two hundred and seventy days or two hundred and fifty days. Then it goes vertical again. Right?
而这是为了什么?
And it For what?
翻了两番?德鲁,你从这组数据中得出什么推论?而且观看量还在持续增长。
Quadrupled? What's your inference from this data here, Drew? And it's still getting watched.
关于小盘股。
About small caps.
每两天就有233,232人观看。还有100人在看那个播客。
233 232 people are watching it every two days. A 100 people watching that podcast.
现在黄金也是。基本上,你看到某个事件触发了200人去观看一个250天前的视频。所以小盘股或Munro基金可能是今年表现最好的基金之一。大家都在想,哦,得多学学。Chowmar,YouTube算法,砰的一声。
On gold at the moment too. So basically, you've seen a a something something's triggered people 200 and to watch a video that's 250 old. So small caps or the Munro Fund maybe got in was one of the top performing funds of the year. And everyone's like, oh, gotta learn more. Chowmar, YouTube, algorithm, bang.
砰。搞定。所以你看到了
Bang. Done. So you see results of
那太厉害了。
That's massive.
39%。
39%.
然后你去看看是谁做的。
And you go look at who did it.
然后你会问,哦,这是谁做的?周马。接着你去谷歌搜索,你知道的,周马。结果这个就出现了,这是周做过的排名第一的播客。
And then you go, oh, who did that? Chowmar. Then you go and Google, you know, Chow Ma. And this comes up, and this is the number one podcast that Chow's done.
没人为此获得报酬。
No one gets paid for it.
然后砰的一声。我们赚了40.60美元。
And boom. We get $40.60
的预估。40美元。就这样。
of estimate. $40. There we go.
女士们先生们,把这记下来。所以我的意思是,这实际上在最尖锐的层面上向我们展示了人们追逐回报的现象。
Take that to the bank, ladies and gentlemen. So my point is that this is actually this is actually showing us at the pointiest end that people chase returns.
没错。
Yep.
这是个很棒的基金。别误会我的意思。我很乐意投资。我想你在虚拟投资组合里也配置了它。
And it's a brilliant fund. Don't get me wrong on that. Happily investing. You I think you allocated to it in your fake money portfolio.
我确实这么做了。
I did.
就像,这非常有趣,但同时也要提醒大家,即使是小盘股市场,也有好坏之分,对吧?所以我倾向于选择主动管理的全球小盘股和澳洲小盘股。但像QSML这样的指数基金,或许可以作为投资组合的一部分。它是基于规则的。
Like, it's a great fun, but at the same time, you just gotta be mindful everyone that even in small cap bland, there's there's good and bad. Right? So I have to have a tendency to lean towards active and global smalls and Aussie smalls. But index like QSML, maybe it's okay for a part of the portfolio. It is rules based.
这不是一个纯粹的指数基金。请记住这一点。
It's not a pure index. Just keep that in mind.
小盘股有巨大的超额收益潜力,所以我更倾向于主动管理。这里有个问题:这些是批发基金吗?其实不是。最低投资额通常在20到25美元左右,我确信这个数字会被修正。因此,有时你无需财务顾问就能参与这类投资,但很多时候不行——不过最低门槛可以低至20美元左右,我是说20到25美元这个区间。
And there's so much potential for outperformance in smalls that I prefer to go active. And there's a question here around that these are wholesale funds. They're not wholesale. The minimum investment I think is usually about 20 to $25, I'm sure will be corrected. So you can tend to access these investments sometimes without a financial advisor, and a lot a lot of the times not, but at levels as low as $20.20 I mean, not as low, levels of 20 to $25.
是的。上面说可以在线投资Fairlight,我猜你应该能参与进去。对,是的,我也这么认为。
Yeah. It says invest online in the Fairlight one, I assume that You can get into it. Yep. Yeah. I'd assume so.
你确实需要处理
You do have to do with the
文书工作,而且通常无法搞定所有报告事宜,另外市场上一般也看不到积极管理的小盘股。
paperwork and you can't get all the reporting taken care of generally, and they you're not usually gonna see an actively managed small cap on the market either.
不,不,你不会的。因为我问过Chao为什么它不是ETF?她说,因为我们不需要它是。
No. No. You won't. Because I asked Chao why isn't it an ETF? And she says, because we don't need it to be.
我当时就想,好吧,我接受这个说法。所以没错,你不会得到ETF。Drew,我得从你那儿听个老爸笑话。如果你想联系Waddle Partners团队,或者想了解最新的Shackets潮流以及今夏新品,你可以发邮件给Drew,或者访问waterpartners.com.au网站。
And I was like, okay. I'll take that. So, yeah, you won't get an ETF. So, Drew, I've got to get your dad joke from you. And if you wanna reach out to the team at Waddle Partners and I just I guess I even understand the latest in Shackets and what's coming in this summer, You can email Drew or you can head to the waterpartners.com.au website.
别忘了,我们澳大利亚投资者播客即将迎来一个盛大的夏季。我要稍微透露一下我们正在筹备的游戏环节,很快就会揭晓。
Don't forget, we've got a big summer coming up on the Australian investors podcast. I'm gonna tease this game a little bit more that we're gonna be putting together, but it is coming up soon.
还有一场路演。
And a roadshow.
还有一场路演。对,我会带上我的周边产品。你也带上你的。如果你能熬过这个周末,就带上你的Kmart周边来。
And a roadshow. Yeah. I'll bring my swag. Bring your swag. If you survive this week weekend, bring your Kmart swag.
我敢说每个真正硬核的丛林旅行者,肯定都在看手电筒这类装备。我就想,
I'm sure everyone that's a fair dinkum bloody, you know, bush traveler. I'll be looking at torches and that sort of stuff. I'm like,
无意冒犯Kmart,但我不会买他们的丁烷气炉。
no offense to Kmart, but I'm not gonna buy their butane gas stove.
世事难料。
You never know.
谁知道呢?
Who knows?
但你确实是在船上长大的,这点不可否认。所以你有些力气。祝你这个周末好运,德鲁。在我们进入周末前,给我们讲讲你那个老爸笑话吧。
But you did grow up on a boat, so there's that. So you got, you know, some strength. So good luck this weekend, Drew. Give us your dad joke as we head off into the weekend.
这是同一位要求提供Cathy Wood在Diver CEO上采访链接的人发来的。嗯哼。为什么人去世时眼睛是最后停止工作的?为什么?因为瞳孔会放大(谐音梗:dilate与die late发音相似)。
This was sent through by the person who also asked for the Cathy Wood interview link on Diver CEO. Mhmm. Why are the eyes the last things to go when you pass away? Why? Because they dilate.
谢谢你玩这个文字游戏,德鲁。我不介意,只是不算太糟。没那么糟糕。好吧,伙计,总是这么有趣。感谢你的时间。
Thank you for playing words there, Drew. I don't mind I just don't have bad. It's not that bad. Well, mate, this is always fun. Thank you for your time.
谢谢。
Thank you.
下周见。很高兴见到你。
And I'll see you next week. Great to see you.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕,帮助你打破语言障碍,轻松听懂全球优质播客。