每位投资者都需要了解的三大趋势：人口结构、财富不平等与劳动的终结（与杰夫·帕克对话）

你现在可能会想，好吧，那么所有红色州的人口都在增长，因此红色州在选举中会继续投红色，我们就会选出一位不会推行社会主义政策的红色总统。

Now you you might think that, okay, well then all the red states are growing in the their the population, and so the red states are going to vote red in the election, and then we're gonna have a red president who's going to not do the socialist policies.

但我认为这种想法太天真了，因为你同样可以将红色州转变为蓝色州。

But I think that would be naive because you could also just flip the red states into blue states.

如果太多左倾人士迁往佛罗里达，突然间，这个以对资本友好著称的州因为财富不平等问题而变成蓝色州，会发生什么？

What happens if too many, you know, like, of the left leanings go to Florida and all of a sudden, the the Florida, the famously capital attacks favorable state flips into a blue state because of this wealth inequality problem.

因此，我只是想强调一种我们似乎正在走向的必然性：拥有巨大价值的私营公司、极其富有的亿万富翁，与一群似乎无法分享任何这些财富的大众并存。

And so I think I'm just kind of trying to underscore some of the inevitability it feels like where we are arriving where you have massively valuable private companies, hugely wealthy billionaires, and then a populace who doesn't seem to be able to access any of that.

我们似乎正处在两难境地，或者至少正朝着这个方向发展。

And it seems like we are positioned in a rock and a hard place, or at least that's where we're going.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

而且，再进一步说，我听到的正是关于对未实现资本利得征税在数学上的荒谬性。

And even just to piggyback on that a little further, you know, I I hear the exact same things we're hearing in terms of the mathematical ridiculousness of taxing unrealized capital gains.

当然，这确实是个问题，因为缺乏流动性来满足这种需求。

Of course, this is actually a problem because the liquidity is not present to meet the demand.

但真正发生的另一件事，你也同样会感到有些不对劲：这些亿万富翁大量借贷，以未实现的资本利得作为抵押，从而将杠杆引入系统，继续用他们的财富进行更多的金融操作，而无需实际发生流动性转移。

But, actually, the other thing that is happening that you would also feel equal sympathy to being something a little bit wrong is that you have these billionaires borrowing tons of money against these unrealized capital gains, which then allows them to actually take leverage into the system to continue to do more financial engineering with their wealth without actually having the liquidity transfer event.

所以我们回到最重要的这一点。

So we go back to this number one thing.

最关键的问题是我们需要流动性转移。

The number one issue is we need liquidity transfer.

但如果你设计了各种机制来阻止通过流动性转移自然发现价格，整个系统就会崩溃。

But if you come up with all these mechanisms to not permit the natural discovery of price through a liquid liquidity transfer, the system is breaking.

因此，正如对未实现资本利得征税一样荒谬，我认为，你从不需要出售资产，却通过其他方式获得流动性，持续用反射性杠杆为资本循环注资，这种做法同样荒谬。

So just as ridiculous it is to tax unrealized capital gains, it is equally, in my opinion, ridiculous that you never have to sell your assets, but actually find liquidity in different ways and continue to fund the eternal cycle of capital with reflexive leverage.

所以，这就是问题所在。

So this is the problem.

这一切都回归到一个事实：当系统中没有价格发现时，大多数美国人能直觉到其中有问题。

This all comes back to the fact that most Americans can intuit something's wrong with a system when there is no price discovery that is happening.

而要实现价格发现，就需要交易。

And for price discovery to happen, you need transactions.

所以，也许社会主义者说的是，我们需要对未实现的资本收益征税，以迫使他们出售资产。

And so maybe what the socialists are saying is we need to put a tax on unrealized capital gains to force them to sell it.

对吧？

Right?

而这就是你能够为这个观点做最强辩护的另一种说法。

And that's that's kind of the other version of how you can steel man that argument.

至于你的观点，如果你是一位创业者，比如在这里纽约，突然得知你的QSPS豁免将被取消，因为Mamdani决定创业者必须为那些尚未完全实现价值创造的初创公司缴税，天哪，这真是太糟糕了。

And to your point, if you're an entrepreneur, right, here in New York, and you would just found out your QSPS exemption is going away because Mamdani is deciding that entrepreneurs have to pay taxes on their startups that haven't yet fully found its value creation, man, what a horrible thing.

对吧？

Right?

然而，这件事与数万亿美元的私人财富闲置不动、却未通过税收用于社会公共项目的情况有着根本区别，后者在税收政策上本可以有更大的灵活性。

And that thing is, nonetheless, fundamentally different than trillions of dollars sitting in private wealth that is still not then being used for social public programs by taxation where there could be more leeway.

我认为这就是我们正在面临的问题。

And I think that's the problem that we're seeing.

我们只是看到混乱的政治、混乱的公共政策和混乱的意识形态在试图解决这个问题，却缺乏一个核心认知：这本质上关乎代际流动性，而流动性必须流动并找到其价格。

We're just seeing a conflation of messy politics, messy public policy, messy ideologies trying to fix the problem without this core understanding that this is all about generational liquidity that needs to move and meet its price.

我真的

I really

我想强调一下你提到的点，即亿万富翁们通常不缴税就能获得资本的方式——比如扎克伯格、马斯克，他们拥有大量股权。

want to underscore the what what you talked about where, like, the the the classic way that billionaires access capital without paying taxes is, you know, Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, they have all this equity.

这些股权是缺乏流动性的。

It's it's illiquid.

以SpaceX为例，它的股权缺乏流动性；即使像特斯拉那样流动性较好的情况，他们又做了什么？

In the case of SpaceX, it's illiquid or even when it's liquid with Tesla, what do they do?

他们并不出售股票，而是以股权作抵押贷款。

They don't sell it, they get a loan against it.

因此，他们获得了资金，却无需触发应税事件。

And so they get the money without actually having to have the taxable event.

这就是我觉得处于中间立场的漏洞。

That's the loophole that I feel like is the middle of the road.

这是一种潜在的政策：如果你用你的股权作为抵押获得贷款，那就应该视为实现了收益。

It's this this a potential policy that's not partisan of if you take get a loan using your equity as collateral, that is realized.

你实际上是在实现这些股权的价值。

You are realizing the value of that equity.

所以我们应该对这种行为征税。

So we should tax that, actually.

这只是一个我们应当关闭的漏洞，也是税法的一个失败。

That's just a loophole that we should close, and that's just a a failure in the tax code.

这并不是关于它是否具有党派性或非党派性。

And it's not about it's not whether it's not, like, partisan or nonpartisan.

我认为这实际上是我们可以采取的明智方案，但这也只是我一时的牢骚。

I think that's actually the smart solution that we could have, but that's just a rant a rant that I have.

是的。

Yeah.

我在这里，部分原因是，你和我当然一直关注加密货币法律中的各种模糊之处，比如质押所得是否属于收入，以及其成本基础如何确定。

I'm not I'm here a little bit because you and I, of course, followed all the ambiguities with crypto laws in terms of what staking as an income can be and whether it's realized on what cost basis.

这些事情总是引发各种模糊的争论，但正如你所指出的，这个问题其实很简单。

And those things would have all these kind of amorphous arguments, and yet, like, as you pointed out, this one's pretty simple.

这个问题很简单。

Like, This one's simple.

这并不难思考。

This is not that hard to think about.

如果钱进入了你的银行账户，而且这笔钱来自一种未实现、因而未被征税的抵押品，那这就是已实现的收入。

If the money shows up in your bank account, and it's from a collateral that is untaxed because it's unrealized, that's that's realized income.

但这里有一个从公共政策角度看不受欢迎的原因。

But here's why this is not popular from a public policy perspective.

因为如果你这么做，你就不得不卖出资产。

Because if you do that, you have to then probably sell the asset.

而目前整个体系建立的基础，是维持一种形象：股市的价值，比如两周前的标普7000点水平，才是正确价格，因为根本没人卖出。

And the whole scheme that is being built on right now is to preserve the image that the stock market valued at the 7,000 S and P level or whatever it was two weeks ago is the correct price because nobody is selling.

从本质上来说，这也是为什么这套逻辑无法在公共政策领域落地的原因——从某种意义上讲，我们整个福利体系的国家安全保障就是建立在这些数字之上的，这也正是这个问题如此棘手的根源。

That is, at the core, why this is not meeting its moment in public policy as well because it is part of, in some sense, the national security defense of our entire welfare system to be based on these numbers, and that's why it's such a hard problem.

尽管如此，我始终确定这件事终将发生，因为总有一天，人口结构问题以及财富与收入的不平等会抵达爆发临界点，到那时这件事就再也无法回避了。

Nonetheless, the certainty that I'm driving with here to know that it will happen is because at some point, the demographics and the wealth and income inequality will reach a breaking point where it is no longer something that can be avoided.

在我们聊最后一个话题之前，你能不能先解释一下需求拖累这个概念？就是财富集中反而会抑制经济活动的这套作用机制。

Before we move on to the last one, just explain this concept of drag on demand, this mechanism of drag on demand where concentrated wealth actually just stifles economic activity.

给我讲讲这个原理吧。

Explain that concept for me.

我们之前聊过不少财富不平等的话题，而和财富不平等紧密关联的就是收入不平等。

We talked about wealth inequality quite a bit, but then close cousin of wealth inequality is income inequality.

我之所以提到这一点，是因为这两者其实略有区别。

But the reason I mentioned it is because they're slightly different.

收入不平等的根源更在于，同一社会里高收入者和低收入者，在当下因各自创造的生产价值所形成的收入差距或比值。

Income inequality is more rooted upon the ratio or spread that could exist at a society of a high earner and a low earner at a moment in time for whatever they're delivering on productivity value.

对吧？

Right?

所以，这经典的问题是：CEO的薪酬应该是公司普通员工的多少倍？合理的倍数是多少？

So this is the classic, like, how much should a CEO get paid as a multiple of the average employee of a company, and what's the reasonable number?

是10倍吗？

Is it 10 times?

是100倍吗？

Is it a 100 times?

是1000倍吗？

Is it a thousand times?

你知道，这就是收入不平等的问题。

You know that that's the income inequality question.

然而，收入通常被认为应当与创造价值的成功程度挂钩。

The income however is generally expected to tie into some success in having delivered value.

因此，我认为，如果我们相信这是价值创造的市场出清价格，我们对收入不平等的容忍度会稍高一些。

So we, I think, have a slightly higher tolerance for income inequality if we believe that it is the market clearing price for the delivery of the value capture.

然而，财富不平等是不同的。

However, wealth inequality is different.

财富不平等是不同的，因为财富从定义上讲，在某种程度上是静止的资本。

Wealth inequality is different because wealth is, by definition, at some level, inert capital.

如果财富以房产的形式持有，它就是静止的。

Wealth is inert if it's sitting in property.

如果财富停留在政府债券中并为你支付利息，它也是静止的。

It is inert if it is staying in government bonds and paying your coupon.

如果财富没有在资本循环中流动用于消费，而货币的本质恰恰在于其流通速度，那么它同样是静止的。

It is inert if it is actually not being motioned through the cycle of capital for consumption where the whole point of money is to actually have a velocity associated with its money supply.

因此，财富不平等的问题在于，在全面贬值的世界里，它能够通过什么都不做而异常显著地保值，而这正是对需求的拖累。

So the problem with wealth inequality is that it has this feature in a world of total debasement to actually be exceptionally convex in its ability to retain value by doing absolutely nothing, and that is the drag on demand.

这是对需求的拖累，因为如果供给冲击没有来自人们消费能力的提升——无论是同一代人之间的横向分配，还是老少之间的纵向传递——就意味着我们正在减缓本应实现未来价值的经济财富转移速度。

That is the drag on demand because the supply shock, if it doesn't come for the people's ability to consume it, either horizontally in the same generation or vertically amongst the old and the young, means that we're actually slowing down some pace of economic wealth transfer that is meant to realize whatever is meant to for the future.

人们现在生育意愿降低的部分原因，是因为他们缺乏养育孩子所需的经济安全感。

Part of the reason why people are not having children as much anymore that they probably should be is because they don't have the economic security they feel in order to have children.

那么，我们该如何解决这个问题呢？

Well, how can we fix that?

我们必须让钱流动起来，把财富转化为收入。

We gotta move the money, and we gotta move that wealth into income.

对吧？

Right?

这就像在热力学中把势能转化为动能，拥有流动的货币比拥有潜在的货币更强大，尤其是当这种潜在能量已经累积到整个封闭资本体系总重量的荒谬程度时。

It's moving it's moving potential energy into kinetic energy in terms of thermodynamics, and it is more powerful to have money that is kinetic than in potential, especially if the potential energy is getting to such an absurd sum of the entire weight of the closed end of capital system.

这就是为什么我认为，财富带来的需求拖累尤为严重，并加剧了当今许多社会问题。

And that's why I think I make the case on the drag on demand being particularly acute for wealth that is exacerbating a lot of the social problems today.

没错。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

如果流通中的货币速度更快，财富不平等就不会成为这么大的问题。

So the idea of wealth inequality wealth inequality wouldn't be so big of a deal if there was just faster velocity of the money that was circulating.

但随着财富不平等加剧，流动资金与闲置资金的比例失衡了——就像那些极其富裕人群持有的数万亿美元储蓄，根本没在经济中流通。

But with increased wealth inequality, the ratio of moving money to inert money, just like, you know, the trillions of dollars in savings that the wealth, the very, very wealthy have, that's not circulating through the economy.

他们不会采购物资，这些钱也就流不到小企业手里。

They're not buying stuff that's not going to small businesses.

这笔钱没法转化成薪资收入。

That's not turning into salaries.

所以这里就存在一个流动货币和停滞货币的比例问题。

And so there's a ratio here of just, like, moving money to inert money.

如果停滞货币的规模是流动货币的十倍，那整体就会压制GDP和商业活动，还会逐步形成恶性循环，因为这也会削弱人们往上发展的能力。

And when inert money is, like, 10 to one the moving money, then you it it it overall just like is a dampener on like GDP commerce, and it kinda like it turns it into like a downward spiral because it it also just reduces people's ability to like climb the ladder.

对吧？

Right?

要是收入没法增长、储蓄也没法增加，那整个体系就会陷入闭环，无法进行自我调整。

If if if if incomes can't go up and and savings can't go up, then it it kinda just keeps the system locked into itself and unable to to to be adaptive.

对吧？

Right?

说得没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

我们应该花几分钟谈谈房地产，因为它是这种内部资本的一个重要来源，理解房地产在美国的广泛作用非常关键。

And we should talk about real estate for a couple minutes here as a source of this inner capital because it's really important to understand the role of real estate broadly here in The United States.

房地产非常独特，一方面，它是一种消费性资产。

Real estate is so unique because on one hand, it is a consumption asset.

例如，如果你住在郊区，你支付的税款 presumably 用于学校、社会服务以及其他你生活中认为有价值的东西，这是一种房产税形式。

For instance, if you're living in the suburbs, you're paying taxes presumably for the social benefits of school and social services and other things that you find valuable in your life as a form of property tax.

然而，它也是一种投资性资产，人们将资产存入其中，希望借此逃避货币贬值。

However, it's also an investment asset where people are storing their asset for the hopes of actually feeling debasement can be escaped through that in to that investment.

因此，我们目前看到的房地产的独特之处在于，消费性资产与投资性资产的混合，以及由此导致的价格发现机制被扭曲。

And, therefore, what we're seeing with real estate uniquely is the mixing of a consumption asset with an investment asset and the price discovery that is being distorted as a result of that.

年轻人之所以如此绝望，无法负担得起住房，正是由于这个问题。

One of the reasons the young people are so kind of despairing in their inability to have home affordability within reach is precisely because of this problem.

而我认为比特币可能部分解决这一问题的原因在于，如果你能找到比房地产更好的财富储存方式，那么全社会将更有利于将这种储蓄意愿转向一种专用于此目的的资产。

And it is especially acute in the context of why I think I'm very optimistic that Bitcoin can be partially a solution to this is because if you find other venues to store wealth that is better than real estate, it is better societally for everybody to shift that intention into a asset that is dedicated for that purpose.

你不应该扭曲消费价格，这种扭曲加剧了年轻人与老年人之间的时间间隔，从而造成了不利影响。

And you should not want to distort the price of consumption that is affecting intertemporal gap between the young and the old that is otherwise causing a disservice.

这是看涨比特币的一个理由：比特币能否生存并成功至关重要，因为它在某种程度上也必须成为解决住房困境的一部分。

This is one of bullish case for Bitcoin as to why it is so socially important that it survives and wins because on some level, it also needs to be a part of the housing dilemma solution.

还有一件事。

One more thing

实际上，在你继续之前，我想提一下布宜诺斯艾利斯的房地产案例。

to add there actually, be before you hold that thought because I want to bring up the anecdote of real estate in Buenos Aires.

在阿根廷的布宜诺斯艾利斯，我不确定这是否仍然成立，因为随着马伊尔当选总统，阿根廷比索的通胀有所下降，但过去乃至今天，人们的钱财储蓄——比如存款——往往都体现在他们的房子或公寓里。

In in Buenos Aires in Argentina, I don't know if this is still true as inflation in in the Argentine peso has gone down with Malay in as president, but previously and probably till till to this day, money, like savings in Buenos Aires is your home, is your apartment.

是的。

Right.

我听过一个故事，说有个人在工作中拿到了一笔奖金。

And there was a story that I was told where some individual was getting like a bonus at work.

他获得了一笔意外之财。

He's some some sort of windfall.

他在工作中拿到了三万美元的奖金。

He's getting like a $30,000 bonus at work.

于是他拿到了三万美元的奖金。

And so he gets the $30,000 bonus.

是现金。

It's in cash.

是美元现金。

It's in US dollars.

他把现金放进背包里。

He puts the cash into his backpack.

他去了一家房地产经纪公司。

He goes to a brokerage, real estate brokerage.

他卖掉了在布宜诺斯艾利斯价值八万美元的公寓。

He sells his $80,000 apartment in Buenos Aires.

他拿了八万美元现金，放进背包，去另一家经纪公司，买了一套十一万美元的公寓，因为他就是这样储存价值的。

Kits $80,000 in cash, puts it in his backpack, goes to another brokerage, buys a $110,000 apartment, because that's how he's storing his value.

他只是把钱存在公寓里，突然获得一笔意外之财，然后买了一套更好的公寓，因为这就是他储存财富的方式——毕竟你别无选择，阿根廷比索的通胀实在太严重了。

And he just stores it in the apartment, he just gets a windfall and buys a better apartment because that's how he stores it because you can't store it in any other way because the Argentine peso inflates so bad.

这对阿根廷房地产市场造成的影响是：你可能会以为，因为阿根廷比索疲软，所以阿根廷房地产很便宜，但事实并非如此。

And what this does to the Argentine housing economy, is it like, you would think that Argentine real estate is cheap because the Argentine peso is weak, but it's not.

阿根廷房地产极其昂贵。

Argentine real estate is extremely expensive.

我知道我知道，我刚才只是随便举了个例子，11万美元买一套公寓其实并不算贵。

I know I know I just use, really, like, an an apartment for a $110,000 is cheap.

那个数字不对。

That's not the right number.

我只是随便编了几个数字，但故事的本质是一样的。

Was just, using up fake numbers, but the story is the same.

因此，很多公寓都空置着，因为它们成了人们存放资本的储蓄工具。

And and as a result of that, a lot of apartments are empty because they are savings vehicles for people who just need to park their capital somewhere.

所以布宜诺斯艾利斯存在住房问题，因为太多人拥有公寓却不住进去，这些公寓其实就是他们的银行账户。

And so there is a housing issue in Buenos Aires because the people so many people own apartments and don't live in them because it's their bank account.

我只是想强调一下你的观点：不要把人们的住房与人们用来居住或储蓄资金的工具混为一谈。

Just so I just wanted to emphasize your point on, like, it's useful to not conflate people's housing with people's with the vehicle that people choose to need to actually, like, live in or save their money.

不。

No.

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢你分享这个故事。

Thanks for sharing that story.

我之前不知道阿根廷的情况，但这么说让我觉得，纽约可能并不是唯一存在这种问题的地方。

I didn't know that about Argentina, but, yeah, that makes me feel like New York is maybe not the only place that we're Yeah.

问题在于。

Problem with.

但你知道，在纽约，趋势实际上是跨境资本流动。

But as you know, in New York, the trend is actually cross capital border flows.

我们发现，外国人正在收购这里的标志性资产以保值财富，尤其是如果你是俄罗斯人或来自中东，想要持有以美元计价的资产。

We're finding foreigners acquiring trophy assets here to preserve wealth, especially if you're a Russian or if you're from The Middle East, and you want to have American denominated dollar denominated assets.

因此，当外国人干预纽约本地市场的价格发现时，也可能造成扭曲。

And so that can also cause a distortion when foreigners are in interfering with price discovery for the local market that is New York City.

但我想再提一点，回到比特币的话题。

But the point that I want to mention too is going back to Bitcoin.

我知道目前比特币政策研究所正在大力争取为比特币交易争取一个最低限度豁免，我们在推动这一议题上取得了一些进展，但尚未获得全面认可。

I know that right now, one of the things that the Bitcoin Policy Institute is fighting really hard for is to seek a de minimis exemption for Bitcoin transactions, and one in which we're finding moderate success in enthusing the subject matter, but maybe not total acceptance.

我实际上认为这极其、极其、极其重要。

I actually think this is super, super, super important.

这之所以重要，是因为储存财富如果能无缝地花出去，就会变得更容易接受且更有趣。

And the reason this is important is because the thing about storing wealth that becomes far more amenable and interesting is if you can actually spend it seamlessly.

房产的问题在于，你必须卖掉整个房产才能获得流动性。

The problem with housing is you gotta sell the whole thing to actually get liquidity.

你无法进行部分出售。

You can't do partial sales.

你不能只卖出你房子的0.0001%来换取某样东西。

You can't partially sell point 0001% of your house for something.

这意味着这些资产在流动过程中存在流动性不足的问题，从而严重扰乱了人们预测和规划消费需求的曲线。

And that means that there's illiquidity in the ways that these things have to move, and it creates a lot of disruption in the consumption curve of how people can predict and anticipate their needs.

但想象一下比特币，你可以实际进行小额支付。

Imagine Bitcoin, though, where you actually can spend, and you can spend de minimis on the thing.

这正是你希望在储蓄资产中拥有的特性，它能让你对比特币提供的流动性感到更加安心。

It's exactly the feature you want in a in a in a savings asset that allows you to a lot more comfort with the liquidity that Bitcoin provides.

从长远来看，这些特性对比特币非常有利，因为你无需将比特币兑换成法币才能进行交易，从而避免了因出售行为而产生的价格断层。

And, actually, it's really good for Bitcoin long term to have these things because you don't need to sell the Bitcoin to Fiat to then transact, which causes these price gaps of, you know, digital step functions of selling behavior.

我相信，有更多比特币持有者如果知道他们可以在不需将比特币换算回美元的情况下直接使用它，会更愿意长期持有比特币。

I believe there's a lot more Bitcoiners out there who would actually keep their Bitcoin if they knew that they could actually spend it in ways that they wouldn't have to think about denominating it back to dollars if if if they could avoid it.

所以总而言之，比特币的一个美妙之处在于，它具备我们所期望的货币应有的特性。

So all to say, like, one of the beautiful features of Bitcoin too is that it is actually money in the ways that it can be if we aspire to it.

作为一种价值储存手段，能够进行这种小额分割支付的能力是独一无二的，而这正是其数字化特性带来的优势，甚至优于像谷歌这样的东西。

And the ability to have that kind of fractional spending as a store of value is so unique, only unique possible because of its digital feature that makes it even better than something like Google.

银河公司致力于连接数字资产与下一代基础设施，为机构提供端到端的服务。

GALAXY operates where digital assets and next generation infrastructure come together, serving institutions end to end.

在市场方面，GALAXY 是领先的机构平台，提供现货、衍生品、结构性产品、去中心化金融借贷、投资银行和融资服务。

On the market side, GALAXY is a leading institutional platform, providing access to spot, derivatives, structured products, DEFI lending, investment banking, and financing.

GALAXY 拥有超过 1600 个交易对手，帮助机构应对市场周期的每个阶段。

With more than 1,600 trading counterparties, GALAXY helps institutions navigate every phase of the market cycle.

该平台还通过主动管理策略和机构级质押及区块链基础设施，支持长期资产配置者。

The platform also supports long term allocators through actively managed strategies and institutional grade staking and blockchain infrastructure.

这种规模是实实在在的。

That scale is real.

GALAXY 平台上的资产超过 120 亿美元，并在 2025 年底平均贷款规模达到 18 亿美元，体现了生态系统中深厚的信赖。

Galaxy has over $12,000,000,000 in assets on the platform and averaged a 1,800,000,000.0 loan book in late twenty twenty five, reflecting deep trust across the ecosystem.

除了数字资产，GALAXY 还在为人工智能驱动的未来构建基础设施。

Beyond digital assets, Galaxy is also building infrastructure for an AI powered future.

其 Helios 数据中心园区专为人工智能和高性能计算而建，拥有超过 1.6 吉瓦的获批电力容量，使其成为同类中规模最大的站点之一。

Its Helios Data Center campus is purpose built for AI and high performance computing with more than 1.6 gigawatts of approved power capacity, making it one of the largest sites of its kind.

从全球市场到为人工智能准备的数据中心，GALAXY 正在端到端地服务数字资产生态系统。

From global markets to AI ready data centers, Galaxy is serving the digital asset ecosystem end to end.

访问 galaxy.com/bankless 了解银河，或点击节目笔记中的链接。

Explore Galaxy at galaxy.com/bankless or click the link in the show notes.

有个令人兴奋的消息。

Some exciting news.

我们即将推出一档新播客，帮助大家理解加密货币周期，以及如何应对它。

We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how to navigate it.

我认识的最出色的加密周期投资者，他的名字叫迈克尔·纳托。

The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael Nato.

他运营着《DeFi报告》。

He runs the DEFI REPORT.

就是这位人士，在价格暴跌10%之前给我发出了卖出预警。

This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the 10:10 price drop happened.

他的周期分析一直极其精准。

His cycle analysis has been absolutely on point.

我已经关注他好几年了。

I've been following him for years.

今年，我们开始每周录制播客节目。

And this year, we started recording weekly podcast episodes.

每一期都会深入他的投资组合，看看他持有哪些资产、市场结构、入场目标、比特币和以太坊的公允价值，以及我们当前所处的周期阶段。

Each one, get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure, entry targets, fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether, and where we are in the cycle.

每周三都会发布新一期节目。

There's new episodes that are released every Wednesday.

每期时长三十分钟。

They're thirty minutes.

篇幅很短。

They're short.

内容精炼有力。

They're punchy.

我认为这个加密周期比以往任何一次都更难把握，让我们一起应对吧。

I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most, so let's do it together.

去订阅这个播客吧。

Go subscribe to this podcast.

在你收听播客的任何平台搜索《DEFI报告》，包括YouTube、Apple、Spotify，或者查看节目笔记中的链接。

Search the DEFI report wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or find a link in the show notes.

现在有一集新内容等着你。

There's a new episode waiting for you now.

让我们进入最后一个确定的真相。

Let's head into the last certain truth.

确定的真相第三条：劳动的价值正在趋近于零。

Certain truth number three, the value of labor is approaching zero.

天啊，这话真严厉。

God, harsh words.

当我读你的文章时，杰夫，我一直直觉地觉得这是对的。

When I was reading your your article, Jeff, I I kinda always intuitively knew that this was true.

但在人工智能时代，我觉得我们都被告知，最终劳动的价值会归零，尤其是当我们引入机器人的时候。

But, like, in the in the AI age, I think we're all being told that, like, eventually the value of labor is going to zero, especially when we introduce robots.

事实证明，劳动的价值——我是通过读你的文章才明白这一点的。

It it turns out that the value I I learned this from reading your article.

事实证明，劳动的价值相对于资本价值一直在下降。

It turns out the value of labor has always been decreasing in terms of the value of capital.

所以这是一个已经存在的趋势转变。

So this is a trend shift that is present.

这种趋势一直在发生。

It has been happening.

即使在我们讨论人工智能和机器人之前，这种趋势现在就已经在发生了。

It's currently happening even before we get into the conversations of AI and robotics.

但关于劳动价值趋近于零的人口趋势，它如何与我们之前讨论的另外两个趋势相关呢？

But talk talk about the demographic the trend shift of the value of labor approaching zero as it's related to the other two trends that we've talked about so far?

劳动的价值正在趋近于零，因为我认为整个技术都是通缩的。

The value of labor is reaching zero because I think technology as a whole is deflationary.

我认为这就是关键所在。

I think that's the punchline.

如果技术的发展方式能够带来生产力增长，并以难以想象的方式推动普遍性的跃迁，那它确实是通缩的。

If technology works the way that is allowing for productivity growth that resets the jump to universality in ways that is unimaginable, it's really deflationary.

所以你应该能预料到很多东西的价格可能会下跌。

And so you should expect a lot of things to maybe go down in price.

但实际情况是，我们并没有在真实物价中看到这种趋势，因为我们同时身处一个信用体系的世界中，信用通胀和信用创造是支撑我们增长模式的核心驱动力。

What's happening though is that's not what we're seeing in actual price because we live also in a credit world where credit inflation and credit creation is a big driver of our growth model.

于是这两股相互矛盾的力量同时发挥作用，最终会以一些反常的方式显现出来。

And so we have these two contradictory forces at play that can actually manifest itself in some weird ways.

我认为到目前为止，这种矛盾最清晰的显现方式就是：劳动力本身正在不断贬值，而在通过资本与信用创造操纵资产价格的金融活动中，资本本身的价值却在不断攀升。

And so the weird way that I would say it has manifested pretty clearly at this point is that labor itself is becoming less valuable while capital is itself becoming more valuable in the financial manipulation of asset prices that is happening via capital and credit creation.

所以我认为这是其中很大的一个成因。

So I think that's a big component of it.

另一部分原因在于，如今的财富创造大多其实都来自股权激励。

The other part of it is, generally, a lot of the wealth creation has actually come from stock based compensation.

这和此前的工业革命时代乃至之后的任何时期都不太一样——哪怕是在美国，当我们谈起新涌现的富裕阶层时，他们积累的巨额财富也并非来自劳动所得或是固定薪资。

So that's probably something that looks a little bit different than the prior eras of industrial revolution or anything thereafter where labor coming from income and salaried wages is maybe not where the greatest wealth creation has happened even in America when you talk about the newly minted wealthy class.

这些财富来自资本的资产增值，而在过去，资产增值的覆盖范围远没有这么广泛。

It's coming from asset inflation in in in capital that historically was not as as wide reaching.

我认为这些因素都是关键所在。

I think those things are key.

我要提到的第三点是，近些年来，工会的力量总体上一直在持续弱化。而在历史上，工会本可以充当一道防护栏，为人力成本本该达到的水平托底，避免自上而下的管理资本主义肆意挤压劳动力的合理价值。

And the third thing that I would mention is there's probably a general weakness to the power of unions over time in in more recent memories that historically could have been a guardrail to protect some of the floors around what the true cost of that human labor in itself should and could be against the forces of top down managerial capitalism otherwise.

而我认为，工会力量的衰落，长期以来也在这个过程中起到了相当大的推动作用。

And that weakening, I think, also could have played a pretty meaningful role over time too.

那我想提出一个不同的参照，就是工业革命时期的情况。

So what a counterpoint that I wanna bring up is the industrial revolution.

工业革命带来了规模极为庞大的资产升值。

The industrial revolution produces just enormous asset appreciation.

它也引发了工人运动，但同时也大幅推动了全球GDP的增长。

It also produced labor uprisings, but it also just produced a boost in in global GDP.

所以如果我们认为人工智能和机器人技术正在带领我们进入新一轮的工业革命，那我预计这两种情况同样会发生：我们会遭遇勒德式的抵制，而这种抵制已经在我们的政治生态中显现了——你会看到伯尼·桑德斯就做了这样的事，还拍了那些和克劳德有关的怪异视频。

And so if we kind of think that we're going into some sort of industrial revolution with AI and robotics, I kind of would expect both to happen, we would have the Luddite pushback, which we're seeing in our politics, you're seeing like Bernie Sanders do this with his like weird videos with Claude.

但即便如此，我还是预计GDP会因为我们拥有了可无偿使用的智能与劳动力而出现大幅增长。

But I kind of would expect nonetheless, that GDP would be massively boosted by the fact that we have free intelligence and free labor.

因此，这实际上会加剧我们之前提到的一些问题，即我们需要在股票市场中有更多的买家来抵消顶部沉重的人口结构带来的压力。

And so this would actually be just a boost to some of the other problems that we've introduced earlier, which is we need to have more buyers than sellers in the stock market to offset the top side, the top heavy demographics.

如果我们真的迎来这场AI工业革命，难道这不也在解决一些问题吗？

Well, if we have this, like, you know, read this AI industrial revolution, aren't we also solving some of the problems?

也许我们确实会像工业革命时期那样出现民众的反抗，但最终结果还是不错的。

Maybe we also do have the populace uprising that we had in the industrial revolution, but it ultimately ended up just fine.

结果，我们还迎来了一波强劲的股市行情。

And we had a roaring stock market as a result.

你对此有什么看法？

What do you what would you say

你说得对。

to that?

有些事情是有道理的，有些则为我们提供了改进和做得更好的模板。

There's things that make sense and things that serve as templates for what we can indeed do better and improve upon.

关于工业革命，你说得完全正确。

So the thing about the industrial revolution is you're absolutely right.

当时出现了惊人的生产率提升，同时随着时间推移，也引发了劳工抗议。

It was an incredible productivity gains, and it did result in in a in a labor uprising simultaneously over time.

这是因为，当真正创造的生产力潜力成熟后，最终会引发一个分配问题：资产估值应该如何反映这种增长？

And that's because, eventually, the benefits that come from, like, the genuine productive capacity creation, once it matures, does lead into that distributional question of, like, where should asset valuations go to reflect that?

正如你所指出的，当时发生了劳工抗议，而正是这场抗议促使工人工资上涨，重建了需求基础，从而保障了资产回报的可持续性。

And as you pointed out, there was a labor uprising, and that labor uprising is actually probably why that they were able to end up having higher wages that rebuilt the demand base that then allowed for the sustainability of those asset returns.

这才是关键所在。

And that's the bottom line.

我记得曾通过了一项著名的《十小时工作制法案》，基本上规定一个人每天不能工作超过十小时。

There was infamous ten hours act that was passed, I believe, where, basically, you couldn't work more than ten hours.

这实际上创造了一种类似机制，人为制造了稀缺性。

And, basically, you're you you created that, like, almost an analog mechanism where you created scarcity.

对吧？

Right?

每天工作十小时，实际上只是制造了你时间上的稀缺。

The ten hours worked actually just created scarcity of your time.

你就是不能做更多了。

You just couldn't do more.

所以这样做实际上直接提高了劳动力成本。

So so by doing that, you're actually increasing the cost of labor, like, very directly.

这种受限的劳动力供给，与机械和资本的好处相结合，从而带来了一些生产率提升，这两者都以积极的方式影响了资本与劳动力的比例。

And that constrained supply of labor then becomes more available and far reaching with the benefit of machinery and capital, right, which then allows some productivity gains, but both of them kind of affect that capital labor ratio in a positive way.

因此，我认为关键点实际上是人类劳动力时间的稀缺性。

And it turns out, like, the fulcrum was actually the scarcity of time, the time of labor by humans.

所以这就是为什么我认为人工智能有点不同，因为人工智能几乎产生了相反的效果。

So that's why I think AI is a little bit different because AI almost nearly has the opposite effect.

对吧？

Right?

因为我们不再受制于人工智能和我们自身的物理限制。

Because we're not bound with AI and the physical constraints of ours anymore.

这并不是一个像这样的问题。

This isn't a question of like, hey.

有个工人每天在工厂工作十八小时，如果我们让他只工作十小时并提高工资，就能解决这个问题，重新定价他的劳动力。

Here's a guy who works in the factory for eighteen hours, and if we just make him work ten hours and pay him more, like, that would solve the problem and reprice his labor.

因为人工智能并不是基于时间的。

Because AI isn't really time based.

人工智能的非时间性价值创造，实际上来自于知识经济本身的广度，而非物理领域。

AI's orthogonal value creation is really coming from the reach of, like, the knowledge economy itself, and it's not of the physical realm.

因此，人工智能并没有传统意义上的劳动力吸收型工业前沿。

And so there is no, like, labor absorbing industrial frontier with AI.

事实上，从一开始，它就是取代劳动力的。

In fact, if anything, it's labor displacing right from day one.

所以，原本可能通过金融工程实现的资产增值——即生产率租金——现在变得完全不同了。

So the asset appreciation that could happen otherwise by financial engineering, like the productivity rent, is is just different.

AI将如何影响劳动力价格，这只是一个不同的追赶问题。

It's just a different catch up question for how AI is gonna affect the price of labor.

另一方面，如果推动AI模型的设备才是有价值的部分，那么对我来说，资本成本此时远比劳动力成本更重要，成为关键的支点。

And on the other side, you get to then see if the machinery that is promoting AI models is the thing that is valuable, well, then it's really explicit to me that the cost of capital is far more valuable at that point than the cost of labor in terms of that becoming the fulcrum point.

这就是不同之处。

And that's what's different.

在工业革命时代，关键点实际上是劳动力时间的稀缺。

At the Industrial Age revolution, the fulcrum point actually was a scarcity of time of laborers.

在当今人工智能革命的时代，关键点实际上是用于资助机器设备的资本稀缺。

In this modern era of the AI revolution, the fulcrum is actually the scarcity of capital that is needed to fund the machineries.

是的。

Yeah.

你说得对。

It is what you're saying.

就像在工业革命中，我们让工人的劳动时间通过更好的工具和工厂得到杠杆化，但我们仍然需要工人的劳动时间。

It's just like, you know, in the industrial revolution, we allowed a workers time to become leveraged with better tools, factories, but we still needed the workers time.

不同之处在于，劳动的需求正在降为零，我们在供应链中已经没有理由保留像工业革命中那样被提升的普通操作工人，而这些工人正在被人工智能革命所取代。

The one that's that's what's different about this is that actually we it's the labor's dropping to zero, we actually don't have a reason in the supply chain to have your average, like, button pusher laborer who would have been enhanced in the industrial revolution is being deleted in the AI revolution.

没错。

Exactly.

没错。

Exactly.

让我用一个比喻来说明。

So let me put it this way metaphorically.

我觉得这样会让很多人更容易理解。

I think this will make a lot of sense to people.

十小时工作制之所以有效，是因为它强制你只能工作十小时，不能更多，这使得你的时间变得宝贵，因而更加稀缺。

The ten hour act worked because it forced you to only work ten hours no more, and that made your time valuable and therefore more scarce.

如果你能和我一起想象一下，那么与此相当的可能是所谓的‘十次提示法案’。

The equivalent of that, if you can imagine it with me a little bit, would be something like the 10 Prompt Act.

你每周只能使用十次提示。

You can only do 10 prompts a week.

或者每天只能使用十次。

Or a day.

你不能使用更多的提示。

You cannot do more prompts.

你就是不能。

You just can't.

这是对使用次数的联邦限制。

That's a federal limit on a ban.

这使得每个提示变得重要得多。

That makes each prompt far more important.

这使得每个提示实际上更加稀缺。

It makes each prompt actually much more scarce.

因此，能够有效利用这些提示的人类智慧变得更为重要。

It makes the human ingenuity, therefore, who can leverage that prompt far more important.

所以我想说的是，你必须对那些能带来人类智慧价值的事物施加稀缺性的限制。

So what I'm trying to say here is that you have to bound the constraint of scarcity on the thing that brings value to human ingenuity.

如果你这样做，并实行‘十提示法则’，我相信这实际上对劳动非常有利，因为那些懂得如何更好地使用提示的聪明人，不仅提升了他们的生产力，还会因为以最佳方式使用工具而获得丰厚回报。

If you do that and you have the 10 prompt act, then I do believe this can actually be very good for labor because the smart people who know what they're doing and learn how to prompt better is not only benefiting from their productive capacity, but they will also be handsomely rewarded for actually being users of the tool in the best ways possible.

这是一种想象方式：在我们当前经历的劳动价值重新评估和调整时期，如何创造劳动价值——正如我所讨论的劳动力成本与资本成本之间的关系。

That is a way to imagine how you could create labor value in times of what we're experiencing in our version of some replacement value recalc recalibration as I talk about the cost of labor versus cost of capital.

工业革命发生后，我们逐步出台了一系列创新举措与监管政策，进而催生了你刚才提到的现代劳动法、现代劳动力相关法规，这些制度可以说为现代劳动者权益奠定了基础。

Downstream of the industrial revolution, we had, you know, some level of innovation and regulation to produce the modern labor laws, the modern workforce laws that you that you talked about, and it kind of created the foundation of just like modern workers' rights.

在当时，那套监管体系算得上是极具前瞻性的创新举措了。

And that was like innovative regulation for the time.

我现在在想，你刚才提到的核心观点其实是，我们同样需要制定适配当下人工智能时代发展形态的、同样高水平的精细化监管政策。

What I'm kind of thinking now is like what you're what you're alluding to is like we kind of need similar levels of smart regulation to fit the form factor of the times of today AI.

那请容许我畅想一会儿，听听我的想法。

So like bear bear with me as I daydream for a moment.

美国把一家人工智能实验室收归国有，或者可能把所有人工智能实验室都国有化。

The United States nationalizes an AI lab, or maybe all of them.

我们先跳过那些从法律层面实现这件事的官僚流程细节。

We'll skip skip the bureaucratic details of how that how we actually do that legally speaking.

但所有劳动者都能获得一份由代币构成的全民基本收入。

But all laborers get a universal basic income of tokens.

当你被一家公司录用时，你可以把自己持有的这份全民基本收入代币投给所在公司，这样就形成了可调配的智力资源稀缺性，这些资源会重新分配到劳动者手中——因为每个劳动者每周都有100万个代币可以支配，而公司会根据他们能否成为合格的提示词工程师、能否最大限度发挥这些代币的价值来雇佣他们。

And when you are hired for a company, you get to point your universal basic income of tokens towards your company, and that's the scarcity of intelligence that gets applied and redistributed towards the people because every single laborer has, you know, 1,000,000 tokens a week that they get to spend, and companies will hire them based off of their competency of of being the correct prompter to maximize the leverage of their tokens.

这是否符合你之前提到的那种模式，只不过适用于AI时代？

Does that kind of, like, fit that same sort of model that you were talking about but for, like, the AI age?

是的。

Yeah.

我喜欢这个想法。

I like it.

我觉得这非常相似，它通过这种分配机制，让人的自主权和自我决定的价值重新回归。

I think it is very similar, and it is this allotment construct in which it makes the agency and self determination value come back to humans.

现实是，现在每个人都看到，AI本身的价格被严重补贴和操纵，这体现在我们所看到的私人信贷、以及超越所谓国家安全优先级和地缘竞争（尤其是针对中国）的资本形成策略上。

The reality is, right now, everyone sees that the price of AI itself is heavily subsidized and heavily manipulated by what we're seeing in private credit, what we're seeing in just general capital formation strategies beyond what they're thinking is a national security priority, number one, and a competitive spirit from the geographical sphere, especially versus China.

因此，我们知道这些定价中有一些可能是不正确的。

And so we know that some of these pricings are probably not correct.

比如，我们知道，如果某项服务并不特别有价值，却因为竞争其他更急需的电网用途的电力成本而被频繁调用，这是不合理的。

Like, we know that you shouldn't be able to ping a thousand times for something that's maybe not super valuable if it's competing for cost of power elsewhere that people need for different ways it functions in the grid.

所以我们知道，目前正发生许多奇怪的事情，存在着巨大的补贴效应。

So we know there's a lot of funny things happening right now where there's an incredible subsidy effect.

所以现实情况是，或许在十年——不对，五年之后，我们就没法再像今天这样拥有这么丰富充裕的各类AI工具了。

So the the reality is it may be not possible in ten you know, five years from now to have the abundance of the toolings that we have today.

我确实觉得我们现在正处在一个相当黄金的时期，这就像优步和来福车在头两年里乘车都是免费的一样，你能亲身体验到那种惊喜的感觉。

I I do believe we're living through a pretty golden age right now where much like Uber rides were free and Lyft rides were free for, like, the first two years, and you got to just experience that, wow.

打车费用会一直免费下去吗？

Are rides gonna be free forever?

答案肯定是不会的。

It's like, no.

实际上，这些补贴不会一直持续下去。

Actually, they're not free forever.

事实上，总有一天市场会回归正轨，为网络效应和脱媒效应给出合理定价，这些资源不可能一直免费。

In fact, at some point, the market will catch up and get you the right price for the network effect and the disintermediation, but it's not for free.

而且我认为我们大概率会先探明这个上限，之后人们就会开始琢磨：或许我们真的该意识到，每单位的AI资源都具备更高的价值。

And I do think we're probably going to find what that limit is, and then people will start thinking about, well, maybe we should actually find this to be more valuable on a per unit basis.

会产生这种想法是因为能源本身就价值不菲，而且能源要为许多其他领域提供支持，会和这些用途形成资源竞争。

And that's because energy is valuable, and energy competes with a lot of other things.

所以我认为你是对的。

So I think you're right.

我认为未来这里确实需要进行一番对话，这也是公共政策将如此重要的原因。

I think there's some kind of dialogue to be had there in the future, and it's why public policy is gonna be so important.

下一个AI明星将被赋予任务，去厘清这些构成社会契约的要素——能源对我们民众意味着什么。

And whoever's next AI star is going to be tasked with trying to figure out these components for the social contract of what energy means to our civilians.

好的，杰夫。

Okay, Jeff.

所以这些就是你所认为的某些真相：人口逆风、财富集中在关键水平，以及劳动力价值趋近于零。

So those were the certain truths that you have, the demographic headwinds, the wealth concentration at critical levels, and the value of labor approaching zero.

我接下来想对你进行一个快速问答，关于你认为表现会好或不好的各类资产和资产类别。

I have a lightning round for you of the different, like, assets and asset categories that you think will do well or not do well.

但在那之前，我想给你一个机会，把这个问题的故事讲完：这些趋势都不是孤立存在的。

Before we get there though, I wanna give you the opportunity to kind of finish this story, which is each of these trends are not in a vacuum.

它们彼此之间并非互不关联。

They're not siloed away from each other.

它们之间会相互影响、彼此助推。

They feed into each other.

所以当你把这三大趋势结合起来时，不妨给我们描述一下当下的问题，讲讲这些趋势之间是如何相互关联的，以及你认为它们最终会将我们带向何方。

So when you put these three trends together, kind of paint a picture for what the problem is, like the interconnectedness of these trends and the the destiny that they that you think that they point towards.

对，没错。

That's right.

不，谢谢你给我这个机会。事实上，我今天跟你还有各位观众分享的这些趋势，单独拎出来看的话，都不是什么新鲜事了。

No, thanks for giving me the chance and the reality is what I just shared with you and with our audience today are, in alone, independently, not new.

我觉得所有人都清楚这些都是棘手的问题。

I think everyone knows that these are problematic things.

几十年来人们一直在讨论社保资金会耗尽的问题。

People have been talking about Social Security running out for decades.

我记得我还在上小学的时候就听过相关的讨论，这么多年过去了，这套体系也没崩溃，一切似乎还在正常运转。

I remember this was a conversation even when I was in elementary school, and all these years later, it hasn't blown up and things seem to be working.

所以说，你觉得为什么现在这个问题就成燃眉之急了呢？

So, you know, why is the problem now?

为什么今天变得如此紧迫？

Why is it acute today?

为什么过去这些问题似乎都解决了？

Why is it you know, it seems to have worked out in the past.

但历史有个奇怪的特点，当这些因素突然汇聚时，往往会出人意料。

But the thing is that history has a funny way when these things converge pretty abruptly.

我非常确定的是，这种汇聚将在时间和全球范围两个维度上发生。

And the thing that I feel really certain is that convergence is going to happen across the dimension of time and its global reach.

因为我们现在所讨论的这些趋势，虽然主要是在美国背景下，但从全球人口结构来看，其实具有普遍性。

Because we are at a point where these trends we talked about, mostly in the American context, is fairly universal again from a global demographics perspective.

因此，已经没有退路了。

And so there is no escape hatch left.

从时间角度看，人口金字塔将发生倒置。

And then from a time perspective, the pyramid will invert.

到了那时，就无法逆转了。

And at that point, there is no reversion.

人类历史的一个特点是，有时某些系统并非逐步演变，而是突然具备了全新的能力。

And the thing about human history is that every now and then the certain systems evolve not incrementally, but they suddenly just become capable of something else.

我不知道你有没有读过戴维·多伊奇的书《无穷的开始》。

So I don't know if you've read David George's book, Beginnings of Infinity.

读过一部分。

Parts of it.

内容非常深奥。

Very dense.

嗯。

Mhmm.

是的。

Yeah.

他从物理学家的角度，同时也作为哲学家，探讨了这种‘跃迁至普适性’的概念。

He talks about from, like, a physicist's perspective, but also as a philosopher, this concept of, like, jump to universality.

其中的核心观点是，系统可以逐步改进，但当各种条件完美契合时，就会发生突变，此时的改进不再是线性的。

And and the core observation there is that systems can improve incrementally, but at some point when the facts align perfectly, the sudden happens where improvement isn't linear.

它实际上跨越了一个阈值，然后变得完全不受限制。

It actually crosses like a threshold, and then it becomes totally unbounded.

他谈到了许多这样的例子，并通过进化和自然选择的视角，以及字母表本身来阐述这一点。

And he talks about a lot of these examples, and it talks about it through the lens of evolution as to natural selection, but also like the alphabet.

为什么字母在达到某些阈值后，会随着时间的推移因其他因素而变得更有意义？

And, like, why did letters become more meaningful itself over time through other things at certain threshold levels?

我想强调的是，由于这三件事如今同时在全球各地发生，这种汇聚正在当下发生。

And the point that I'm making is that this convergence is happening now because of all three of these things happening at the same time and at the same place everywhere in the world.

这就是为什么我认为我们的关键时刻即将到来，我们应该做好准备，作为宏观投资者，正确配置资本，以最大程度地实现有意义的成果。

And that's why I think our moment is coming, and we should be prepared then to think about how to allocate capital correctly as a macro investor to have your best chance of success in navigating a worthwhile outcome.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

所以我们现在有一个财富高度集中的股票市场，大量老年人退休，试图消耗他们的资本，给股市带来抛售压力。

So we have a a stock market that has a very top heavy demographic base, lots of the elderly retiring, trying to consume their capital, putting sell pressure on the stock market.

相应的买入压力很弱，因为我们存在严重的财富不平等。

The resulting buy pressure is weak because we have a very concentrated wealth inequality.

比如，赚钱的人并没有赚到足够多的钱来支撑经济的买方需求，而人工智能和机器人技术又正在从根本上颠覆劳动力市场。

Like, the people making the money aren't making that much money to support the buy side of that economy, and then we have AI and robotics coming in to fundamentally dis disrupt labor in the first place.

这听起来对未来并不是特别乐观，但让我们进入快速问答环节，直接聊聊该投资哪里。

It's like, not really the most optimistic forecast of the future, but let's get into the the lightning round of just, like, where to invest.

如果核心理念是资本战胜劳动力，那我们自然要找到真正重要的资本。

And so if the whole idea is that capital beats labor, we have to find the capital that matters, of course.

所以我想听听你对每一个点的快速看法。

So I wanna get your your quick takes on each of them.

其实我想从我列表的中间开始。

I wanna start actually in the middle of my list.

住宅房地产。

Residential real estate.

健康吗？

Healthy?

不健康吗？

Not healthy?

点赞吗？

Thumbs up?

点踩吗？

Thumbs down?

你怎么看？

What do you think?

对我来说是点踩。

It's it's a thumbs down for me.

因为婴儿潮一代必须卖出。

Because because boomers have to sell.

婴儿潮一代必须出售房产。

Boomers have to sell.

你看。

And look.

规则是这样的。

The rules.

也许如果你拥有标志性资产，会有一些不同的买家接手。

Maybe if you have trophy assets, there's gonna be different buyers for those.

房地产本身分布并不均匀。

And real estate itself is not evenly distributed.

但作为一项中位数资产，美国的住房拥有率我认为将会是负面的。

But as a as a median asset, American homeownership, I think, is a is gonna be an is gonna be negative.

负面的。

Negative.

这个负面是指名义上的负面，还是相对于列表中其他潜在资产而言的负面？

Now is that negative nominally or just negative to as it relates to other assets that, like, potentially have in this list?

就像世界上所有其他资产的平均值。

Like, a a mean of the all the other assets in the world.

我认为这绝对是实际负值。

I think it's definitely negative real.

而且很可能名义上也是负的。

It's also high probability it'll be negative nominal.

这主要是因为卖家会越来越多，最终房屋的可负担价格将取决于工资收入者的购买力，而我们尚未看到工资增长跟上资产通胀的速度。

And and that's really because there's just gonna be more sellers, and and and eventually, the price that homes can be afforded by will be met by the income power of those who are wage earning, and we haven't seen wage inflation catch up nearly at the rate of asset inflation.

因此，从公共政策的角度来看，可能会有一些不同的应对策略，但目标是增加供给，让这个数字降下来。

And so from a public policy perspective, there may be different tricks to do, but, you know, the the goal is to build more supply and get that number lower.

这是另一个讽刺之处。

And that's the other irony.

拥有房地产的人并不想增加供给，你们都应该批判性地、开放地思考人们为何如此行为。

Those who own real estate don't wanna build more supply, and you should all be very critical and open minded to why people are behaving this way.

所以总的来说，从资本回报率的角度来看，租房为大多数人提供了远更多的价值。

So I I think in general, renting from a cap rate perspective has provided far more value for most people.

事实上，如果你离开美国，你会感到惊讶。

And in fact, if you leave The US, you'd be surprised.

在德国，有一半的人租房。

In Germany, believe half the people rent.

如果你把租房视为一种社会常态，从数学角度来看，它实际上也有同等的价值。

If you think about rent as a as a as a social norm, there is actually ways in which that can be equally worthwhile from a from a mathematical perspective.

那指数呢？

What about indices?

QQQ、SPX、道琼斯，这些指数怎么样？

QQQ, SPX, Dow Jones, any of those?

天啊，我得为我的所有回答加上星号，因为这些答案在某种程度上是路径依赖的，这听起来可能不太令人满意。

Man, so I have to basically asterisk all my answers here and that, like, it's not gonna be fulfilling to recognize that these are somewhat path dependent.

我认为，在代际流动性陷阱的框架下，这也是一个负面因素。

I think in the construct of the generational liquidity trap, this is also a a negative.

你看。

Look.

长期来看这些指数可能会表现不错，但我现在回答这些问题，是基于这些流动性事件触发时的情况——说到底，这些资金流的影响会非常大，除非能通过海外资金、AI驱动的交易资金，或是其他目前不存在但未来可能出现的渠道来对冲掉这些影响。

It's probably gonna do well over a certain amount of time, but I'm answering these questions based on the moment when these liquidity events trigger and, ultimately, how overwhelming those flows can be unless there was different ways to offset it via foreigners or AI machine driven flows or something that isn't present today but might be imaginable in the future.

那黄金呢？

What about gold?

黄金是看好的。

Thumbs up for gold.

真的看好？

Thumbs up?

点个赞。

Thumbs up.

没错。

Yep.

点个赞。

Thumbs up.

是的。

Yes.

为什么这么说？

Why is that?

我认为黄金是应对法币的终极对冲资产，而且将永远如此。

I think gold is is is the premier, premier, premier asset when it comes to hedge against fiat that will be forever.

它是永恒的。

It's permanent.

黄金作为人类文明的文物，是其中的一部分，我预计这种情况将永远持续。

It's a part of our human civilization as an artifact, and I expect that to remain the case forever.

因为实物资产有价值，数字资产也有价值，两者都有其作用。

Because there's value in something that is physical as much as there is something in digital, and there's a role for both.

它最终源于我所说的能量转化。

And it is ultimately derived from what I call energy transformation.

在我的激进投资组合理论中，我提到要根据合规资产和抗性资产来区分资产。

One of the things I I talk about in my radical portfolio theory is to separate assets based on compliance assets and resistance assets.

区分这两类资产的一个关键特征是：一类资产涉及流动性操纵，另一类则涉及能量操纵。

And one of the features to define what one can be one versus the other is that one cohort of asset class is involved in liquidity manipulation, and one cohort is involved in energy manipulation.

因为只有流动性和能量通过创造时间产生交集，而时间是我们生命中唯一有价值的东西。

Because it's only liquid and liquidity and energy that intersects by creating time, and time is the only valuable thing we have in life.

因此，从这个角度看，黄金绝对是一种能量转化行为，因为它涉及采矿。

And so from that perspective, gold is absolutely an energy transformation affair because it is mining.

比特币也是如此，它是一种能量转化行为，因为它涉及计算。

The same way Bitcoin is an energy transformation affair because it involves compute.

这些事物的价值主张与流动性转化行为截然不同，比如提前实现基于指数资产的收益率曲线。

Those things have a fundamentally different value proposition than a liquidity transformation endeavor, like pulling forward the yield curve on an index based asset.

我明白了。

I see.

我明白了。

I see.

让我们来谈谈比特币本身。

Let's get into Bitcoin itself.

比特币，比特币表现如何？

Bitcoin, how does Bitcoin fare?

天啊。

Oh, man.

这个是一个布局。

This one's a layout.

你知道答案。

You know the answer.

比特币是唯一一个满足所有这些条件的。

Bitcoin Bitcoin is the only one that fulfills a lot of all this stuff.

是的。

Yeah.

比特币具有哪些特性，让它如此契合你所预测的未来？

What what are the properties that Bitcoin have has that so resonates with just kinda the the future that you have forecasted here?

对。

Yeah.

我认为比特币最棒的地方，我们之前稍微提到过，就是它是数字化的，并且完全可移动。

I think the the best part about Bitcoin, we kinda talked about it a little bit earlier, is that it is digital, and it is entirely nomadic.

你能把比特币记在脑子里，这一点本身就是任何其他资产类别都无法具备的独特价值主张。

The fact that you can actually have Bitcoin stored in your mind is in itself a unique value proposition that no other asset class could ever have.

如果你想象最极端的资本管制场景——资本流动被限制，或国家走向极权，我们都沦为监控社会的一部分，陷入如此黑暗的反乌托邦世界，那时你必须有一个对冲工具。

And if you imagine the worst draconian scenario of capital control flows being restricted or maximalist state affairs where we all become part of the surveillance state and this very dark dystopian world that you could have to have a hedge for.

唯一有可能成功的资产，就是你能记在脑子里、以非托管方式随身携带至生命尽头的东西，这就是比特币的超能力。

The only asset that can have a remote chance of success is the thing that you can memorize in your brain and carry it with you till your dying days in a noncustodial format, and that's Bitcoin's superpower.

这就是为什么在某些方面，比特币比黄金更胜一筹。

It's that's why it's better than gold in some aspects of it.

那关于千禧一代其实没持有多少比特币这件事呢？

What about the fact that just boomers don't own a lot of of Bitcoin?

比如，如果婴儿潮一代正在消耗他们的资本账户，但他们的资本账户里其实没多少比特币，这难道不会对比特币有利吗？

Like, that has that has to benefit Bitcoin when it comes to, like, if boomers are drawing down on their capital account, but their capital account doesn't really hold that much Bitcoin.

这意味着股市可能陷入低迷，但比特币却游离于其外。

That's that that means there's a malaise in the stock market, but Bitcoin is outside of that.

百分之百。

100%.

这就是为什么我认为这个聚集效应实际上相当重要，因为它确实如此——年轻人正在买入，因此人们会持有更长时间。

That's why I think the huddle affair is actually kind of important, and it it really is because the young people are buying it, and therefore, people are gonna hold on to it for longer.

你很少听说有人在亏损时卖出比特币，更多是那些在高点买入后等待下一次反弹的人。

You never hear about people who sell Bitcoin really at losses as much as people who buy them at peak and then wait until their next rebound.

这是因为人们在心理上倾向于长期持有比特币。

And that's because people are psychologically attuned to holding on to Bitcoin for a long time.

所以，你告诉我，嘿。

And so you tell me, hey.

你有机会拥有一个资产，有人七年不卖， versus 有人二十年就卖。

You get a chance to own an asset, someone's not gonna sell for seven years versus someone that's gonna sell something in twenty years.

我想要那个七十年都没人卖的。

I want the one that no one's selling in seventy years.

我认为所有年轻人都会理解这种重要性，这确实是它的力量所在。

And I think all young people are gonna understand that importance, and that's definitely its power too.

如何

How does

和财富税有关的？

that relate to wealth tax?

因为，说实话，我对这个看法有点矛盾。

Because, like, I I'm of two minds about this.

你知道，比特币，我有点理解它是一种抗压资产。

You know, Bitcoin, I kinda understand is like a a resistance asset.

它是对美联储的反抗。

It's a f u to the Federal Reserve.

它脱离了政府的控制。

It's outside outside of governments.

它是密码朋克。

It's cypherpunk.

它很酷炫。

It's badass.

但我毕竟是我所居住国家的公民。

But I'm a subject of the state that I live in.

比如，如果国税局来敲我的门，我会缴税，因为我可不想进监狱。

Like, if if the IRS comes knocking at my door, I'm paying the tax because I don't wanna go to jail.

所以，我对这件事其实持两难态度。

And so, like, I'm of two minds about this.

我们发现了一个趋势，就是政府必须想办法对财富征税，但你又有比特币这种脱离体系的资产，按理说它应该和这个趋势相呼应，可我本人却身处这个体系之中。

Like, we have this trend that we've identified is that, like, governments are going to have to figure out how to tax wealth on the side of but you have Bitcoin, which is this, like, you know, outside of the system asset, which you would think resonates with that, but I'm inside the system.

你怎么调和这两者呢？

How do you square these two things?

你可以同时实现这两种结果。

You can achieve both outcomes.

你既可以做一个守法的纳税人，又依然希望在点击一下按钮后，将缴税后的资产跨境转移。

You can still be law abiding taxpayer and still want the desire to move those assets after tax cross border in the click of a button.

这两者完全可以和谐共存。

Those things can exist together in harmony.

实际上，我们可以想象，后者的存在本身也应该影响前者。

And one might imagine, actually, the threat of the latter should inform the former as well.

你听到霍楚尔州长前几天呼吁纽约人留下，或者请他们在迈阿密的朋友回来。

And you hear, you know, governor Hochul the other day describing her plea for New Yorkers to stay or ask their friends in Miami to come back.

有一刻，我相信她甚至用了‘国家的俘虏’这个词来形容她自己的选民，她认为这些‘国家的俘虏’本不该离开，因此这成了一个问题。

And at one point, I believe she actually used the word captives of the state to describe her own constituents and that she had imagined that the captives of the state would not have ever left, and that's why this is a problem.

当你听到我们民选官员用‘国家的俘虏’这样的措辞来形容自己的选民时

When you hear those kinds of word choices from our publicly elected officials describing their own constituents as captives of the state

这让我感觉自己像牲口一样。

Makes me feel like cattle.

是的。

Yeah.

这真的、真的、真的应该唤醒你对自我决定权的意识，激励你采取行动去反抗。

It should really, really, really reawaken your sense of self determination as to re empowering what you could do to push back.

你仍然可以向霍楚尔州长缴税，但你也可以选择离开。

And so you can still pay taxes to governor Hochul, but you can also leave.

而在全球范围内，比特币比其他任何资产类别都更强大，因为它具有非同质化的特性，可以仅仅存在于空气中。

And that is more powerful with Bitcoin at a global level than, I think, with almost any other asset classes because of its non fungible nature to which it can just be held in the in in the air.

你对加密行业整体怎么看？

What do you think about the crypto industry broadly?

首先是比特币。

So there's Bitcoin.

我知道，杰夫，你是个比特币支持者。

And I know, Jeff, you're you're a Bitcoiner.

你是个坚定的比特币支持者。

You're you're you're a strong Bitcoiner.

但我们也还有整个加密领域，比如以太坊、以太坊上的代币、智能合约区块链，整个这一板块。

But then we also have just crypto broadly, Ethereum, tokens on Ethereum, smart contract blockchains, this whole sector.

在你的未来经济预测中，它们表现如何？

How does this fare in in your future economic forecast?

是的。

Yeah.

我对加密货币非常看涨。

I'm super bullish on crypto.

我的意思是，从意识形态的角度来看，我必须持这种立场，因为我相信除了价值储存之外，还会产生其他价值。

I mean, I have to be at some level from an ideological perspective because I believe that there's gonna be value creation outside of store of wealth too.

我的意思是，价值储存归根结底有点自私。

I mean, store of wealth, at the end of the day, is a little bit of a selfish affair.

我的意思是，我们只是想保护自己的财富，这在某种程度上是利己的，而除此之外，并没有真正为整个社会创造价值。

I mean, we're talking about just wanting to preserve wealth that is self serving at some level, whereas you're not really creating value otherwise for society at large.

而加密货币的其他部分，我认为更乐观、更有抱负，也更想实现那些早期的承诺。

And the other parts of crypto, I think, is more optimistic and aspirational in wanting to deliver some of those early promises too.

所以，从历史上看，挑战在于我们一直没能找到太多方法来激发其价值创造的价格机制，但我相信随着时间推移，这终将实现。

So, you know, historically, I think the challenge has been that we haven't found a lot of ways to enthuse the price mech matching mechanism of its value creation, but I believe over time that will come.

当人们发现以太坊有用，Solana也有用时，我认为它就会自然融入系统，变得有价值。

And as people find Ethereum to be useful, as Solana to be useful, then I think it will work itself into the system where it is valuable.

所以，是的，我是比特币的忠实支持者。

So, yes, you know, big fan of Bitcoin.

它是我唯一的真爱，但我始终希望整个经济体系能够成功。

It's the one true love that I have, but I'm always rooting for the economy to succeed at large.

而且，希望tokenization和使用这些基础设施的稳定币采用，能够带来一些真正的收入和一种难以忽视的价值创造模式。

And, hopefully, you know, some aspects of tokenization, stablecoin adoption using these rails can bring some some real revenue and and a and a model that is underridable to that value creation technique.

从投资角度来看，有没有哪些新兴经济体让你觉得有趣？

Are there certain emerging economies that you might find interesting from an investment standpoint?

在过去的几十年里，标普500指数的表现远远超过了新兴经济体的股市。

So over the last like few decades, the S and P 500 has like crushed emerging economy stock markets.

世界上几乎没有几个股市，如果有的话，能跟上美国经济的步伐。

There's like very few stock markets out there, if any, I think that has at all kept up with the American economy.

所以大家都把资金重新投回美国。

So that's why everyone reinvest back into America.

杰夫，我觉得你可能没有明确这么说，但你的观点似乎在暗示美国股票市场在全球范围内的主导地位正在上升。

I think, Jeff, I don't know if you're explicitly doing this, but you're it seems to be you are pointing directionally towards a top of American equities dominance as it relates to the rest of the world.

也许这是我的说法，但我猜你可能会同意这一点。

Maybe those are my words, but I might guess that you might agree with that.

当然，世界上还有其他经济体，我注意到很多人在谈论拉美、ETF、巴西、阿根廷这些地方。

And so there's, other economies out there, and I've noticed just a lot of ramblings about, like, LATAM, ETFs, Brazil, Argentina.

那么具体到南美洲，你对LATAMETF怎么看？它们如何契合你对未来趋势的判断？

What about specifically, maybe in South America, what do you think about LATAM ETFs when it comes to, like, fitting into what you think the future holds for us?

所以我打算采取一种略显无知但直接的方式来看待这个问题：当我想到新兴市场时，有两个维度。

So I'm gonna take a slightly ignorant and blunt approach here, which is that when I think about emerging markets, there's two dimensions.

一个是反映在股票上的实际增长引擎，另一个是其计价货币，这两者都可以有各自不同的价值判断。

One is the actual engine of growth reflected by equities, but also the currency that it is denominated in, both of which can have just different thesis as to its value.

我从根本上非常看好多美元，这深刻影响了我对美国实力的许多看法。

I'm I'm I'm just very bullish on the dollar at the core, which informs a lot of my views on American might.

在我看来，美元虽然不完美，但却是最干净的脏衣服，尽管法币贬值将成为全球趋势。

It's kind of the cleanest dirty laundry as I see it, even though fiat debasement is going to be a global trend nonetheless.

我认为美元最有希望保持其价值。

I think the dollar has the strongest chance of of retaining value.

但如果我要在不同国家或司法管辖区之间划一条线，我可能会把它们分为避税天堂和非避税天堂。

But if I wanted to, like, draw a line amongst jurisdictions of countries, what I might do is bifurcate between tax havens and non tax havens.

因为我认为世界正朝着一种人们希望退出某些体系的方向发展，而成为这种退出的通道是有价值的。

Because I do think the world is going towards a perspective where people want to opt out of certain things, and there's value in becoming the conduit for that opt out.

随着时间的推移，你会发现历史总是会有一个对这类司法管辖区持中立态度的可信中介。

And over time, you have seen history will always have a credible intermediary that is neutral to towards that jurisdictional affair.

因此，这场博弈始终是：下一个避风港会在哪里？

And so the game of chicken always is where is the next haven going to be?

你知道，曾经有一段时间，那是瑞士。

You know, once upon a time, it was Switzerland.

瑞士花了三百年时间建立起这一声誉。

Switzerland spent three hundred years building that reputation.

然后2008年来了，美国开始针对他们。

And then 2008 hit, and then The US went after them.

在短短七十五天内，瑞士就举起了白旗，说：好吧。

And then within basically seventy five days, Switzerland put up their white flag and said, All right.

你们可以拿走他们所有客户的信息。

You can have all their client information.

他们在紧急会议上修改了国家法律，以满足要求，避免UBS被禁入。

They changed our national laws in an emergency meeting to meet the demand so that UBS doesn't get banned.

现在，瑞士已不再是昔日的瑞士了。

And now Switzerland is not what it used to be.

因此，在此背景下，其他避税天堂正纷纷涌现。

And so on the back of that, you're seeing other tax havens come to market.

我认为，无论财富流向何处，都会对这一点产生影响。

And I think the next the wealth, wherever it goes, is going to have some effect to that.

所以，在南美洲，我认为乌拉圭前景看好，因为乌拉圭实际上在某种程度上扮演着中介角色。

And so maybe in in South America, I would say I'm bullish Uruguay because Uruguay is actually at some level that conduit.

这或许是我投资时会考虑的方向——不是传统意义上的新兴市场，而是类似无管辖权的避税经济体。

And and that's maybe a matter that I would use to approach investing in not emerging markets per se, but kinda jurisdiction less haven economies.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

而且葡萄酒也很棒。

And really good wine.