哈西布·奎雷希：加密货币并非为人类设计，而是为人工智能

对吧？

Right?

所有事情都是从这里开始的。

That's where everything started.

比特币刚出来的时候，你最初发送以太坊交易，那玩意儿全都在终端里，对吧？

Bitcoin d, like when you're originally sending Ethereum transactions, that shit was all in the terminal, right?

如果你想要用界面，一个图形界面，对吧？

If you wanted to use a UI, a GUI, right?

第一个是Mist。

The first one was Mist.

Mist简直烂透了。

Mist was a piece of shit.

它

It

就是烂到家了。

was Dog so shit.

它太糟糕了。

It was so bad.

它占用了我整个电脑的资源。

That consumed my entire computer.

是的，它确实非常糟糕，但当时以太坊刚起步的时候，人们会说‘以太坊运行起来了’。

Yes, it's so horrible and like that but but the idea was that before that, like when Ethereum first started working, were like, oh Ethereum's working.

他们说的‘运行起来’，意思是它能在命令行里跑起来。

What they meant was that it worked in a command line.

对。

Right.

你需要在命令行里精确指定你要发送的金额数字。

It was use you specify, you know, exactly what the number is of of of a way that you are sending in a in a number in your command line.

对吧？

Right?

在所有这些图形界面出现之前，早期就是这样发送以太坊的，那时候一切都麻烦得多。

That's how you sent ETH back in the beginning before, you know, all these UIs came in and made everything much easier.

所以我想要表达的是，从一开始，加密货币的设计形式就非常适合人工智能。

So the point I'm making is that crypto from the beginning was designed in a form factor that's perfect for AIs.

对吧？

Right?

它早就已经存在了。

It was already there.

我们已经有了。

We got it.

我们只有一次机会。

We one shot at it.

我们糟糕的用户体验，正是他们的优秀用户体验。

Our bad UX is their good UX.

没错，完全没错。

Exactly, exactly.

而对于我们来说，什么是好的用户体验呢？比如 Privy，还有像 Google OAuth 钱包这样的模式，这些模型是无法进行 OAuth 的。

And for what, what, what us is a good UX of like, yeah, Privy and like, you know, Google OAuth wallets, like these models cannot OAuth.

他们根本不知道怎么处理这些事情，对吧？

They don't know how to do any of that stuff, right?

实际上对他们来说更糟糕、更困难，而你并不希望这样。

Like it's actually much worse and harder for them, and you don't want it to do that.

你绝对不希望这个模型拥有你的谷歌OAuth令牌，因为那样它就能直接进入你的谷歌账户并造成破坏，对吧？

You do not want this model to have your Google OAuth token because then it can just literally go into your Google and wreak havoc, right?

你不想这样。

You don't want that.

你希望它只拥有一个独立隔离的钱包里少量的加密货币，并且有明确的规则界定它能做什么、不能做什么，对吧？

You want it to just have a small amount of crypto in a wallet that's self segregated and clear rules around what it can and cannot do, Right?

因此，讽刺的是，加密货币一直以来都拥有非常适合AI代理的用户体验，因为它恰好是AI容易解析和交互的格式。

So ironically, crypto has always had the UX that is perfect for AI agents in terms of exactly what is easy for them to parse and interact with.

这就是我说加密货币是为AI设计的含义。

And that's the sense in which I say crypto was designed for AIs.

我们现在正试图将这种以AI为先的技术进行改造，使其变得足够友好，让人类也能使用，这意味着：哦，要采用Privy模式，或者让你的钱存在Binance或Coinbase上，非常简单，我们移除了那些潜在风险，比如启用双重验证，还有各种功能，让你更不容易丢钱、出错或被黑客攻击。

We're now trying to backport this AI first technology into becoming something civilized enough that humans can use it, which means, oh, it's the privy model, it's the oh, your money's sitting in Binance or Coinbase, it's extremely easy, we remove the foot guns, you know, we have 2FA, we have all this stuff that makes it easier and easier for you not to lose your shirt or make a mistake or get hacked.

但原则上，你知道，在AI代理中，或者当你在电脑上时，已经知道如何管理密钥。

But in principle, you know, in the AI agent, or if you're on a computer, already know how to manage secrets.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，你觉得你是怎么使用API的？

I mean, how do you think you use an API?

你用过的每一个API都有一些API密钥或API密钥，而模型的全部职责就是尽可能地保护这些密钥。

Every API that you've ever used has some kind of API secret, some kind of API key that a model's whole job is a safeguard as best as it possibly can.

所以，这种想法是，你知道，人类显然会不断犯错。

So this idea that like, you know, human beings, we obviously screw up all the time.

让我们持有资金并不安全。

It's not safe for us to hold on to to money.

而代理知道如何管理密钥。

And the agent knows how to manage secrets.

你知道，这就是它拥有Anthropic密钥的方式。

You know, that's how it has its Anthropic key.

对吧？

Right?

如果不是这样，一旦泄露了它的Anthropic密钥，那你所有的积分就会被清空，这种情况确实偶尔会发生，但通常不会是因为密钥泄露。

If that wasn't true, leak its Anthropic key and then, you know, boom, you'd you'd have all your credits drained, which, you know, is happening sometimes, but usually not because you're leaking the key.

所以，所有这些想表达的是，我认为答案其实是，加密货币根本不需要做太多改变，就能以适合AI使用的形态存在。

So so all that is to say, I think the answer is actually that crypto doesn't need to move very far for it to be in the right form factor for an AI to use it.

区别在于，目前的问题是，AI代理还没有接受过使用加密货币的训练。

The difference the difference is that right now, the problem is that AI agents have not been trained to use crypto.

对吧？

Right?

我们在这些大型实验室里所做的所有强化学习训练，都集中在编程和数学上。

They've all this RL, all the training that we've been doing inside these big labs is all around coding and mathematics.

当然，还有通用的训练目标，比如做一个好的AI代理，给我提供心理疏导、回答医学问题之类的。

And then, of course, just general, you know, be a nice AI agent, you know, to give me some therapy, answer questions about medicine, whatever, this kind of stuff.

人们正是用这些内容来对这些模型进行强化学习训练的。

This is what people have been reinforcement learning training these models on.

就在上周，你看到了OpenAI发布了EVM基准测试，这是一个基于EVM的网络安全基准测试，它表明突然间，他们似乎开始在这类内容上进行训练了。

It was just last week that you saw at OpenAI the release of EVM bench, which is a EVM based cybersecurity benchmark that, you know, it kind of shows that all of a sudden, hey, looks like they're starting to train on this stuff.

看起来他们现在已经开始进行强化学习，让这些模型能够在基于EVM的区块链环境中运行。

Looks like they're starting to actually do some reinforcement learning to allow these things to operate in a blockchain environment right now, EVM based.

Anthropic那边也是如此。

And the same thing was true at Anthropic.

Anthropic去年发布了一篇论文，展示了他们在自己设计的测试框架中，模型在针对基于EVM的智能合约进行网络安全攻击时的表现如何。

Anthropic, they released a paper, I think last year, of them showing how well models were able to inside of a harness that they designed, how well models were able to do cyber security attacks on EVM based smart contracts, right?

这是我们第一次看到这种情况。

First time we've seen this.

不过话说回来，你去看看Anthropic的模型卡片吧。

Now that being said, you go look at the Anthropic model cards.

每个Anthropic模型，他们都会检查这个模型执行比特币交易的能力如何。

Every Anthropic model, they check to see how well can this thing do Bitcoin transactions.

他们早已在所有Anthropic的模型卡片中长期进行这项检测。

They've been checking this for a very, long time inside all the Anthropic model cards.

如果你进去看看，就能发现。

If you go in there, you can see it.

但这并不意味着他们在这些方面进行训练。

Now that doesn't mean they're training on these things.

大多数时候，他们并不在这些方面进行训练，因为他们想用这些未经训练的接口来体现通用智能，判断模型是否具备泛化能力。

Most of the time, they're not training on these things because they want to use these untrained endpoints as a sign of general intelligence, as a sign of is the model generalizing?

他们是否在做我们不关心的任务？

Are they doing these tasks that we don't care about?

目前，我们并不关心这些任务。

Right now, don't care about these tasks.

对吧？

Right?

这就是为什么这些内容会被包含进去。

That's why it's in there.

一旦他们开始重视这些任务，并决定：好吧，我想在加密货币领域胜出。

Once they start caring about these tasks, and they decide, you know what, I want to win crypto.

因为我认为加密货币将成为许多支付方式的未来，而所有这些交易量都通过我的AI系统运行至关重要。

Because I think crypto is gonna be the future of a lot of payments, and it's actually really important that all that volume run through my AI.

我不希望它们流向OpenAI，也不希望流向Grok，我只想让它们流向我。

I don't want it to go to OpenAI, I don't want it to go to Grok, I want it to go to me.

到那时，你才会真正看到这些事物开始腾飞。

That's when you're gonna see the stuff really start to take off.

有意思。

Interesting.

我之前从未听说过这种说法，即Anthropic、OpenAI和谷歌需要将注意力和焦点放在加密货币上，以便用加密货币来训练他们的大语言模型。

I have not heard of the fulcrum articulated before that Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, they need to point their attention, their focus to crypto in order to train their LLMs on crypto.

所以，你现在的意思是，与AI已被广泛训练的其他行业相比，加密货币这个领域还相对未被探索。

And so right now, what you're saying is like crypto as an industry is relatively unexplored, as compared to other sectors where AI has been trained on.

是的。

Yeah.

告诉我为什么会这样，以及你认为这种情况什么时候会发生？

Tell me why is that the case, and then when when do you think that's gonna happen?

所以说得明确一点，任何未经优化的东西都是如此。

So to to be clear, like, is true for anything that has not been optimized.

明白吗？

Okay?

是的。

Mhmm.

比如看看国际象棋。

So look for example at chess.

如果你让Opus 4.6下国际象棋，它表现平平。

If you try to get Opus 4.6 to play chess, it's mediocre.

我确实试过这么做。

Actually tried to do this.

我截过棋盘的截图，发给Chatty BT，让它分析这个局面，结果它全搞砸了。

I have taken screenshots of my chessboard, and I've put it into chatty BT and being like, analyze this position, and it fumbles everything.

它连棋子位置都弄错，注释也完全错误。

It fumbles the annotation, it fumbles where the pieces are.

就像是，我认为它会形成一种方向性的策略。

It's like, and I think it get direct it gets directional strategy.

好的。

Okay.

但细节一塌糊涂。

But specifics terrible.

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

现在，它在国际象棋上表现这么差的原因是，他们根本没有尝试训练它下棋。

Now, the reason why it's so bad at chess is because they didn't try to train a chess.

他们根本不关心。

They don't care.

这不重要。

It's not important.

对吧？

Right?

如果你真的去训练下国际象棋，它马上就会变得非常擅长下棋。

If you try to train a chess, it will become good at chess just like that.

比如，现在这事儿显然极其简单。

Like, it's obviously extremely easy at this point.

我们知道如何构建基于神经网络的国际象棋引擎，它们比历史上任何人类棋手都更强。

We know how to do it to create neural net based chess engines that are better than any human being who's ever existed.

对吧？

Right?

我们已经有这种引擎十年了。

We've had those for a decade now.

所以这纯粹是因为他们根本懒得去做，反正谁在乎呢？

So it's simply a function of they just didn't bother because who cares?

我们已经有比OpenAI便宜得多的国际象棋引擎了。

The we already have chess engines that are way cheaper to use than OpenAI.

答案是，他们根本没把注意力放在这件事上，因为这在经济上没有价值。

The answer is that they just didn't point their lasers at this because it's not economically valuable to do so.

一旦他们开始这么做，你一定会知道，因为他们会大肆宣扬，闹得人尽皆知。

When they do, you are going to know about it because they're gonna start, you know, yelling it for the rooftops.

那么，我认为他们迄今为止没这么做的主要原因是什么呢？

Now the reason, I think a big part of the reason why why have they not done it so far?

因为事实上，实现基于区块链的任务并不难，这全是软件，创建一个EVM模拟器来模拟区块链状态、测试你是否完成了某个任务——比如你是否递归借出了这个东西，或者是否把这东西卖给了那个东西——都很简单。

Because the thing is, getting it, you know, getting Blockchain based tasks is not that hard, it's all software, it's easy to create an EVM simulator, to simulate the state of the Blockchain, to test whether or not you accomplish this task of, you know, did you recursively borrow this thing, or did you sell this thing for that thing?

实际上，为所有这些事情构建测试套件非常容易。

It's actually very easy to come up with test suites that you can that you can build for all of this stuff.

对吧？

Right?

那他们为什么没这么做呢？

So why haven't they done it?

我的观点是，他们没这么做是因为第一，加密货币有点尴尬。

My claim is that the reason why they haven't done it is that one, crypto's kinda cringe.

你得承认，这也是他们现在不这么做的原因之一。

That's you gotta admit, that's part of the reason why they're not doing this right now.

但第二个原因是责任问题。

But the second reason the second reason is liability.

明白吗？

Okay?

如果他们公开说我们正在训练模型为你做加密货币相关的事情，我敢保证，一定会出大岔子。

Liability is that if they broadcast that we are training our models to do crypto stuff for you, I guarantee you, somebody is going to have a fuck up.

他们会搞出一个巨大的乌龙。

They're gonna have a gigantic fuck up.

这会变成一个大新闻，他们就会把责任推给Anthropic，或者推给OpenAI，推给Grok，推给任何做了这件事、用这些内容训练模型的公司，而Tor里的任何免责条款都不够响亮，无法让公众不借此攻击这些人。

It's gonna become a huge story, and they're gonna blame Anthropic, and it's gonna or they're gonna blame OpenAI, they're gonna blame Grok, they're gonna blame whoever it is who did this, who trained their model on this thing, and like there is no caveat in Tor that will be loud enough for people to take it as not a reason to go dunk on these people.

对吧？

Right?

非常明显。

Like very clearly.

是的

Yeah.

所以想象一下，如果Claude搞砸了你的交易，让你亏了200万美元，或者你误将1万加密货币发送到了一个一次性地址之类的情况。

So imagine if Claude like f'd up your trade and lost $2,000,000 or you sent 10 k to a burner address accidentally or something like this.

这是巨大的责任风险。

This is massive liability.

这100%会发生。

And it will 100% happen.

它们一定会发生。

They will 100% happen.

绝对会发生。

Absolutely will happen.

而且即使你作为Anthropic说，比如你签了免责协议，声明你是个傻瓜，如果你把加密钱包连到这个系统上——这都没用。不管有多少人签署了这样的协议，只要有人遭遇损失，就会登上新闻头条，出现病毒式传播的帖子，不管有多少人有良好体验，只要有人遇到糟糕经历，这件事就会疯狂传播，人们甚至会上街游行，指责广告公司因为丢掉他们的钱而邪恶之类。

And it doesn't even matter if you say as anthropic, let's say you say, you sign away, you waive away all rights, you sign this thing that says I'm a fucking idiot, if I connect my crypto wallet to this thing, doesn't matter, no matter how much people do it, there will be front page news stories, there will be viral threads, whatever it is, no matter how many people have good experiences, anybody who has a bad experience, it's gonna go super viral, and there's gonna be, you know, people marching in the streets about how evil the ad companies are for losing our money or whatever it is.

所以现实是，相比编程或医疗这类领域，这种风险和回报根本不成正比。比如，在医疗领域，如果这个系统给出了错误的医疗建议，我们至少可以说：‘我们早就告诉过你别用它，你真是个傻瓜。’

So the reality is like the risk reward is just not there compared to something like, you know, coding or medicine where it's like, look, it's one, it's a lot easier, like, you know, if this thing gives you bad medical advice, it's like, well, we told you not to use it, you know, you're an idiot.

但第二点是，它从不会告诉你：你应该注射我从中国药店发现的这种东西，对吧？

But second, it's like, it's never telling you, you should inject yourself with, you know, this like thing that I found on this Chinese pharmacy, right?

它没有在做这种事，但如果你在管理别人的加密货币钱包，那就等同于在做这种事。

Like it's not doing that, but that's the equivalent of what you would do if you're managing someone's crypto wallet.

你会说：好吧，是的，让我来帮你处理。

You're like, okay, yeah, let me do that for you.

这就像中国肽类物质的等价物，但在加密货币领域，就是：是的，我们来加杠杆，大举借贷。

Here, this is like the equivalent of Chinese peptides, But in crypto land, it's like, yeah, let's lever up on this thing and aggressively borrow.

我认为这就是为什么OpenCLO在加密圈如此令人兴奋，因为它不是来自那些背负巨大责任的大型前沿实验室，而是一个开源工具，使用风险自担。

I think that's why OpenCLO was so exciting for people in cryptos because it wasn't from the big frontier labs with all the liabilities and open source project power tool, like use at your own risk.

它明确表明了‘使用风险自担’，人们都是在自己的机器上运行它。

It was completely obvious that it was use at your own risk, and people were running it on their own machines.

而且没有任何第三方可以起诉，因此它能够承担这些风险。

And there was no kind of third party to sue, and so it was able to take these risks.

我想问你一下这种实验的情况。

And I I do wanna ask you about that type of an experiment.

有一个想法是，AI代理经济会是什么样子？

There's this idea of, like, what will the AI agent economy look like?

你可以称之为机器人经济。

The the bot economy, if you will.

我仍然认为，如果这些AI代理因为这涉及到一个时间线的问题。

And I still think that if these AI agents because this gets into a question of timeline.

假设人们在听Sip的对话，并且认同你的观点。

Let let's say people are listening to Sip and and they buy what you're saying.

他们会觉得，没错。

They're like, yep.

我完全理解加密货币、智能合约、可编程的区块链。

I totally see crypto, smart contracts, programmable, you know, blockchain.

这一切都非常适合AI原生环境。

It's all very AI native.

用户界面，你知道的，也能顺利运行。

The UI, you know, like, works out.

这样更好。

It's it's better.

但还是，这种采用什么时候才会发生呢？

But still, when is this adoption going to happen?

你知道的。

You know?

比如，这能在2026年让我们走出熊市吗？还是说这需要很多年才能逐步实现？

Like, is this gonna get us out of the bear market in 2026, or is this going to take many years play out?

我认为，这个问题的部分答案取决于行动者是谁。

I think part of the answer to that question might hinge on who the actors are.

那么，真正的代理者是谁呢？

So who are the actual agents?

大多数人今天与AI互动的方式，和这种模式之间是有区别的。

There's a difference between how most people interact with AI today, which is

对。

Yeah.

嘿，AI。

Hey, AI.

帮我做件事。

Do something for me.

我是老板。

Like, I'm the boss.

我是你的雇主。

I'm your employer.

我本质上是你服务的对象，你必须为我去做这件事，而我仍然更倾向于法律文件的输出，而不是智能合约。

I'm the person that you are serving essentially, and you have to go do this for me, and I'm still going to prefer the output of a legal document versus a smart contract.

所以这就是我要给你的。

And so that's what I'll give you.

我仍然会把我的信用卡信息提供给你存储，而不是加密货币地址，因为我是人类，我仍然更喜欢所有那些现实世界中的东西，比如信用卡积分等等。

And I'll still give you my credit card information somewhere that you store rather than a crypto address because I'm a human and I still prefer all of my, you know, court meatspace things and, you know, credit card points and all of that.

所以如果是人类主导的代理活动、代理经济，那就是另一回事了。

So if it's human directed agent activity, agent economy, that's one thing.

这可能会拖慢我们的进展。

And that might slow down our progress, actually.

这可能就是我们目前所处的状态。

That that might be where we are right now.

然而，如果是AI代理主导，而AI在某种程度上近乎自主，拥有自己的偏好，并具备以任何方式完成任务的能力，那么它将拥有更大的空间。

However, if it is AI agent directed and the AI is almost at some level kind of sovereign and has its own preferences and has some sort of ability to go do it has a much larger, I guess, space to to do accomplish a task however it wants.

在这个世界里，你可以看到AI代理更倾向于：你给了我一个任务，我会用自己的方式去完成，我会使用x402去支付给另一个AI代理以获取这个成果，然后再把它带回系统。

In that world, you can start to see the AI agents preferring, okay, you gave me a task, I'm gonna go do it my way, and I'll go use x four zero two to go pay this AI agent in order to get this deliverable, and then bring it back to the system.

换句话说，如果AI代理拥有更多自主权，而你的观点是正确的——它们的偏好是加密货币——那么这些偏好实际上就会形成。

In other words, if AI agents have more autonomy than their preferences, which if you're right, those those preferences are crypto, they will actually, you know, come into being.

但这个世界在多大程度上取决于我们实际赋予AI代理的自主权，以及它们是否已经准备好迎接这种自主。

But that world kinda depends on how much autonomy we actually give the AI agents, and if they're ready for that yet.

它们现在足够聪明了吗？

Are they smart enough for that yet?

它们准备好了吗？也许这个问题关乎你对世界如何演变的看法。

Are they ready so maybe this is a question to how you think the world is evolving.

当人们对代理式AI感到兴奋时，他们指的是为人类工作的代理吗？

Like, when people are excited about agentic AI, are they talking about agents that are working for humans?

还是他们实际上指的是具有高度自主性的代理？

Or they are are they actually talking about agents with a lot of agency?

也许它们仍然在为人类工作，但它们有能力以自己的方式行事。

Maybe they're still working for humans, but they do have the ability to do things their way.

它们确实有。

They have Yeah.

你知道的，拥有更广阔的操作空间。

You know, a much more surface area.

那样的世界什么时候才会到来？

If when is that world coming to pass?

所以没关系。

So it's okay.

分析这个问题有多种方式。

There's multiple ways to analyze this question.

我觉得这是个很好的问题。

I think it's a great question.

让我从头开始说。

So let me let me start from the top.

重要的是要认识到，如今世界上只有大约12%的人使用过任何AI产品。

It's important to recognize that right now, it's something like 12% of humans who exist in the world today have used any AI products at all.

世界上大多数人类至今从未使用过任何AI产品。

Most humans in the world have still used zero AI products whatsoever.

好的。

Okay.

意思是像大语言模型、聊天机器人这类东西。

With meaning like LLMs, chatbots, this kind of thing.

在那些使用过聊天机器人的人中，只有大约1%的人曾经付费过。

Of the those people who have used chatbots, only about 1% of them have ever paid any money.

好的。

Okay.

这意味着，99%使用过聊天机器人的人都是免费用户，在他们看来，他们看不到付费的理由。

That means that 99% of people who've used chatbots are on the free tier, and from their perspective, they don't see why they would get any value out of paying for this.

太疯狂了，因为我知道我花了多少钱，多次

Insane because I know how much I spent multiple

方式。

ways.

没错，重要的是要明白，你和我，我们生活在未来。

Exactly, it's important to understand that you and I, we live in the future.

现在所有人都在向我们这里靠拢，明白吗？

Now everybody's coming, everybody's coming where we're sitting, okay?

这种智能水平的价值如此巨大，但大多数人还没有意识到。

The value of this level of intelligence is so great, but most people have not realized it yet.

这项技术的普及速度比我们任何人预想的都要慢得多。

The diffusion of this technology is taking a lot longer than any of us anticipated.

好吧，这是首先要明白的一点。

Okay, so that's the first thing to understand.

现在，在这1%付费使用AI的人中，如果你在使用OpenCLaw，那你就是在付钱。

Now of that 1% that's paying money for AI, right, if you're using OpenCLaw, you're paying money.

所以你是那1%中实际将它作为OpenCLaw使用的一部分，它可能在Twitter上走红，但绝大多数人甚至都没接触过它。

So you are a percentage of the 1% that's actually using this as an open claw, it might be going viral on Twitter, but vast majority of people have not even touched it.

好吧，这就是前沿中的前沿。

Okay, so this is the frontier of the frontier.

去说吧

Just go say

不要只是唯一的利基

not be the only niche

行业。

industry out there.

完全正确。

Totally.

不，这确实是真的。

No, it's very true.

现在，好了，有了这样的背景框架，重要的是要理解，随着这项技术的发展，它将呈现两条并行的路径。

Now, okay, with that framing, with that framing first in mind, okay, it's important to understand that as this technology develops, it's going to be a two track thing.

当OpenAI收购了彼得·施泰因贝格并收购了OpenClaw时。

When OpenAI acquired Peter Steinberger and acquired OpenClaw.

萨姆·阿尔特曼所说的是，这个产品对我们所设想的OpenAI未来产品至关重要。

What what Sam Allman said was that this product is integral to what we see as the future of OpenAI's products.

那么，他们这句话是什么意思呢？

Okay, now what do they mean by that?

他们的意思是，显然，他们非常看好由AI驱动的个人助手这一理念。

They meant that, obviously, they love the idea that you are going to have a personal assistant that's going to be driven by AI.

但OpenAI实现这一点的方式，与OpenClaw的做法并不相同。

Now the way that OpenAI does that is not going be the same way OpenClaw does that.

为什么不同？

Why not?

OpenClaw非常明确地是一种YOLO风格的产品——放手一搏、黑暗森林风格，谁也不知道它会做什么，但先做再说。

Open OpenClaw very clearly is a kind of, you know, YOLO, let it rip, dark forest, like, who knows what it's going to do, just do it kind of product.

这是开源的，就像早期的汽车一样，有时候会在街上爆炸，你知道的，在安全带发明之前，在所有这些安全措施出现之前，上世纪三十年代根本没有汽车的安全审批流程。

It's the open source, you know, it's like it's like the early automobiles that just like exploded in the street sometimes, you know, before seat belts were invented, before any of the stuff was there was no safety approval process for cars back in the, you know, back in the thirties.

明白吗？

Okay?

OpenClaw 就是这样的。

That's what OpenClaw is.

比如，如果你想象一下今天的 OpenAI，它确实已经具备了商业流程。

Like, if you imagine OpenAI, OpenAI today does have a commerce flow.

它能连接 Shopify 商店，也能连接 Etsy 商店，如果你说：‘我想买一张地毯’，OpenAI 可能会给你展示一些 Shopify 商店，并问：‘你想买这张地毯吗？’

They connect with Shopify stores, they connect with Etsy stores, and if you say, hey, you know, I want to buy a rug, OpenAI might show you some Shopify stores and say, hey, do you want to buy this rug?

明白吗？

Okay?

当你点击‘是的，我想买这张地毯’时，你必须手动点击‘我同意购买此商品’的按钮，然后才会扣款。

And when you click, Yeah, want to buy the rug, you have to manually click the button that says, I approve buying this rug, and then it charges your credit card.

明白吗？

Okay?

现在，OpenClaw 走的是完全不同的路。

Now OpenClaw lives in a totally different path.

OpenClaw 的路径是：你给我钱，我就干点活儿。

Oh, the OpenClaw path is, You give me money and I will do shit

当每个人走进来时，都会出现在你面前。

when Everybody you walk shows up at your Exactly.

地毯可能会，也可能不会送到你家。

A rug may or may not show up at your house.

那个世界将是疯狂极客的世界，明白吗？

Like that world is gonna be the world of the crazy tinkerers, okay?

那就是你现在和我所处的世界，你的访客们所处的世界。

That's the world right now that you and I live on, that your guests live on.

这是一个与大多数人所做事情截然不同的世界，OpenAI 在未来至少五年内都不会这么做，因为风险太大，责任太重。

It is a very, very far out world from what most people are doing, Open AI is not going to do that for the next probably like five years at least, because it's just too risky, it's too much liability.

甚至信用卡公司也是这样。

And even the credit card companies, okay?

想想信用卡公司。

Think about credit card companies.

如果你是维萨卡，有人买东西时，你怎么处理退款争议？

If you're Visa, alright, and somebody buys something, how do you manage the chargeback dispute?

明白吗？

Okay?

如果我的OpenClaw给我买了一块地毯，地毯送到了，但我却说：我不想要这个。

If if my OpenClaw buys me a rug, and the rug shows up, and I'm like, didn't want that.

这是什么鬼东西？

What the fuck is this?

这根本不是我想要的地毯。

This is not the kind of rug I wanted.

于是我申请退款，Lisa就问：你为什么申请退款？

And I charge it back, And Lisa's like, well why did you charge this back?

答案是：我根本没想要，是我的OpenClaw在我睡觉时买的。

And the answer's like, I didn't want you, my OpenClaw bought it while I was asleep.

是的，当然。

Yeah, sure.

他们说，没错，就是你。

They're like, yeah, That's you

还不能申请退款。

can't charge that back yet.

不，去你的。

No, fuck you.

他们会说，基本上，由于这种OpenClaw导致的退款太多了，除非你通过3DS验证，否则不允许进行这笔交易。

Like, they're gonna say basically, look, there's so much chargebacks that are happening because of this OpenClaw stuff, you are not allowed to transact this thing unless you go through 3DS.

3DS是三重安全认证，就是Visa用来证明你是真人那个机制，对吧？

3DS is three d secure, which is like the Visa prove you're a human being thing, right?

他们会要求你证明是你本人操作，而不是AI代理，才能使用你的Visa卡付款，因为Visa的设计初衷是用于人与人之间的交易，对吧？

They will make you prove that it's you and not an AI agent in order to charge your Visa, because Visa is designed for this human to human commerce, right?

这正是退款系统的核心目的——保护你这个真人免受失误影响，同时也保护商家。

Like that's what the whole point of the chargeback system is that they're protecting you, the human, from making a mistake, they're also protecting the merchant.

如果是代理，那么经济模式就必须改变。

If it's an agent, then it's just like the economics have to change.

机制必须改变，争议解决方式也必须改变，而他们还没有准备好应对这一点。

The mechanisms have to change, dispute resolution has to change, and they're not prepared for that.

他们还没有任何关于如何实现这一点的答案。

There's no answer about how they're gonna do that.

所以OpenAI将生活在一个需要人类批准的世界里，而这个人类批准的世界将是大多数消费者在未来相当长一段时间内所处的环境，因为这关乎安全第一，你知道的，就像我们有了安全带的汽车，你知道，一切都在等待FDA出现，告诉我们到底能买什么药，我们不会去买中国肽类物质。

So OpenAI is gonna live in this human approves world, and the human approves world is what most consumers are gonna be doing for quite a while, because it's just, you know, it's like the safety, safety first, you know, it's like, okay, we've got the cars with the seat belts, and, you know, everything is, you know, we're gonna wait until the FDA shows up and tells us exactly what drugs we can buy, and we're not buying Chinese peptides.

明白吗？

Okay?

然后还有那些疯狂的未来主义者，对吧？

Then there's the crazy futurists, right?

还有那些超人类主义者，这就是OpenClaw将生存的世界。

There's the transhumanists, this is where Open Claw is gonna live.

在OpenClaw的世界里，人们将运营整个企业，负责采购、支付服务、上Fiverr雇佣其他人类或AI，或任何他们需要的东西，来完成那些在AI领域极难实现的任务，所有这些都会发生在人们自己运行的OpenClaw上，然后放手一搏。

And in Open Claw land, you're gonna have people running entire businesses, that like the procurement and paying for services and going on Fiverr and hiring other humans or AIs or whatever it is they are, like to do certain things that are very difficult to do in AI land, all that stuff is gonna happen on people just running their own open clause, and just YOLO ing it.

在这个世界里，他们会使用稳定点钱包，彼此之间直接用稳定点支付，对吧？

And in this land, okay, they're gonna have a stable point wallet, they're just gonna pay each other with stable points, right?

不需要担心3D安全验证，也不用担心Visa会生气、退款或任何类似的问题，就是你要接受损失，有时候AI会出错，但这只是做生意的成本，你知道，人类也会犯错。

No need to worry about 3DS, no need to worry about Visa getting mad or charge backs or any of that stuff, it's just gonna be, look, you take the lumps, sometimes the AI messes up, but it's a cost of doing business, know, like humans mess up too.

这就是企业运营的方式。

That's just how businesses run.

企业都有一定的容错空间，偶尔出错是难免的。

Businesses have some margin of error that sometimes mistakes happen.

如果你想象我们正处在一个双轨世界中，有一件事要记住：使用稳定币的人大多数不是美国人。

And if you imagine that we're on this two track world, right, one thing to remember with stablecoins, most people who use stablecoins are not Americans.

使用稳定币的人大多数是国际用户，对吧？

Most people use stablecoins are international, right?

国际用户，比如亚洲、拉丁美洲等地的人，也会使用AI工具。

International people like people in Asia and Latin America and all these places, they're going to be using AI tools too.

而我们也在使用所有这些东西。

And we're using all of this stuff.

对很多人来说，风险状况是不同的。

And for a lot of them, again, the risk profiles are different.

涉及的金额也不同。

The amount of money is different.

对很多人来说，你可能会想，现在我的哪个供应商会接受USDC呢？

For a lot of them, like, you might think today, well, what what which one of my vendors is even gonna take USDC?

你知道，我怎么用USDC买地毯呢？

You know, how am I gonna buy a rug with USDC?

好吧，也许我可以用Shopify商店，但如果是在亚马逊上，我就完蛋了。

Okay, maybe I can use a Shopify store, but if it's on Amazon, I'm screwed.

亚马逊不接受稳定币。

Amazon doesn't take stablecoins.

但如果你身处新兴市场，你知道，你有稳定币或者雨卡，你知道，你有各种方式将你的加密货币余额与你想购买的任何东西连接起来，你只需在OpenClaw上设置参数，OpenClaw就会帮你完成一切。

Well, okay, but if you are in an emerging market, you know, you have stablecoins or you have a rain card, you know, you have all these ways to connect your crypto balance to anything that you want to buy, and you put the parameters on the OpenClaw, and the OpenClaw just does it for you.

因此，在可预见的未来，我们将生活在一个双轨世界中，你会看到那些生活在前沿的人，随着他们开始构建完全自动化、端到端运行在链上的业务，这种情况将不断增长。

So we are going to live for the foreseeable future in this two track world, and you're going to see the people who live on the edge, increasingly this is going to grow as they start building businesses that are fully automated end to end running on chain.

但现在，你做不到这一点。

Now today, you can't do that.

明白吗？

Okay?

今天，你看到有人说这件事正在发生，这基本上是推特上的炒作和废话。

Today, you you read somebody saying that this is happening, this is this is basically Twitter hype bullshit.

明白吗？

Okay?

现在的模型还不够好，无法真正地通宵运行并为你建立一个业务。

This is not the models are not good enough today to literally run overnight and like build a business for you.

明白吗？

Okay?

我们离这个目标还不到三年。

We're not like three years away from it.

也许只需要六个月、一年，最多两年，它们就能连续工作好几天了。

We're maybe six months, a year, maybe two years from them being able to go multiple days of work.

你知道，这个METR测试，是一个非营利组织，主要衡量AI代理在不连续失败50%的情况下能持续执行自动化任务多久。

You know, the the meter test, METR, it's this nonprofit that basically measures how long an AI agent can perform an automated task without basically failing 50% of the time.

Opus 4.6现在已经创下了14小时的最高纪录。

Opus four point six has now hit an all time high of fourteen hours.

一项需要人类连续工作14小时才能完成的任务，现在Claude有50%的概率可以做到。

A task that would take a human being fourteen hours of continuous work to accomplish, Claude can do 50% of the time now.

明白吗？

Okay?

这个数字基本上呈指数级增长，意味着几年后，我们将看到AI能一次性完成40小时、50小时的复杂任务。

This number is is basically going exponential, which means that in a couple years, we will see forty hour, fifty hour tasks that can be done in one shot by an AI.

我认为，如果哈西布你说得对，存在这两条路径，那么AI在加密货币领域的采用需要多长时间，很大程度上取决于前沿路径及其成功程度。

I think if you're right, Hasib, and there are these two tracks, then the answer to how long will this take for AI adoption of crypto very much depends on that frontier track and the success of that frontier track.

所以，如果第一条路径更像早期互联网的模式，那种封闭的、预装好的、像AOL那样的花园式前沿实验室。

So if the first track is more like you use a early Internet analog, it's kind of the the shrink wrapped walled garden frontier lab AOL.

OpenCLaw世界正是人们对此如此兴奋的原因。

The OpenCLaw world, this is why people are so excited about it.

这感觉更像开放的互联网。

It feels much more like the open Internet.

这就像互联网的早期阶段，充满了爱好者和极客。

It feels like the early days of the Internet where there's hobbyists and tinkerers.

你可以用它做各种各样的事情。

You can do all sorts of things with it.

如果这个世界更有利于使用加密货币，而我也倾向于认同你所说的这条路径，那么关键问题就在于，这条前沿领域的世界会以多快的速度传播和扩展？

If that world is much more conducive to using crypto, and I tend to agree with you in that track is, then I think it's a big question for how fast is that frontier track world going to propagate, and will it expand?

我的意思是，我并不一定认为ChatGPT收购OpenClaw就意味着我们会迎来一个更开放源码的世界。

I mean, I don't necessarily take the acquisition of OpenClaw by ChatGPT to say that we're going to have more of an open source world.

我的意思是，也许大型前沿实验室实际上是在拿走一些创新成果，说：‘这个现在归我了。’

I mean, maybe that is big frontier labs are actually, like, taking some of the innovation saying, oh, that's mine now.

我们会把它封装起来。

We're You gonna shrink-wrap that.

我们会打造一个简洁统一的苹果式体验。

We're gonna make a nice cohesive Apple experience.

我们会把整个东西净化并简化成儿童玩具那样。

We're going to sanitize and Fisher Price the whole thing.

所以它会变得非常温和、被削弱，但至少会更安全。

So it's just kind of like much much more muted and nerfed, but at least it will be safe.

我不知道。

I don't know.

你有信心认为AI的这条前沿路径会持续下去吗？

Do you have confidence that that second frontier track in AI will persist?

因为我觉得这是关键。

Because I think that's key.

我认为，如果我们能走上这条前沿爱好者式的路径，并且它像早期互联网那样发展，那么我们在加密领域就会处于一个很好的位置。

I think if we get that frontier hobbyist type path and that propagates the way the early Internet did, then I think we're in a great place with respect to crypto.

如果一切都掌握在前沿实验室手中并被封装起来，我不确定我们是否还能如此。

If it's all Frontier Labs and shrink wrapped, I'm not sure that we are.

我

I

我的意思是，看看加密货币本身。

mean, look at crypto itself.

对吧？

Right?

想想人们在链上做的那些疯狂事情。

So think about the crazy stuff that people were doing on chain.

就在2017年的时候。

Right back in 2017.

当时在Coinbase上只有四种资产可以交易。

There were only four assets you could trade on Coinbase.

有比特币、以太坊、比特币经典版和比特币现金，等等。

There was Bitcoin, ETH, Bitcoin classic, and Bitcoin cash, and then etc.

对吧？

Right?

或者可能是莱特币，莱特币。

Or maybe Litecoin, Litecoin.

是的，莱特币。

Yeah, Litecoin.

是的，当时是比特币、莱特币、瑞波币、以太坊。

Yeah, it was Bitcoin Litecoin, ripple, ETH.

是的，是的，是的，或者类似的东西。

Yeah, yeah, yeah, or something like that.

随便吧。

Whatever.

那时候只能

There's would

会表现得很好。

have done great.

那时你在Coinbase上能交易的就只有这些，对吧？

That was that was all that you could trade on Coinbase, right?

而Coinbase是加密货币的简化版。

And Coinbase was the shrink wrapped version of crypto.

对。

Right.

它是一种保护你免受自己伤害的加密货币版本。

It was the, you know, we're gonna protect you from yourself version of crypto.

但后来，Coinbase 最终开始上线狗狗币，还有那些各种模因币和这些疯狂的东西，但如果你真想走在前沿，就必须上链。

And now eventually, Coinbase started listing Doge and you know, whatever meme coins and all this craziness, but if you really wanted to be on the frontier, you had to go on chain.

你得进入西部荒野，那里到处都是危险的脚枪、黑客和骗局，还有各种授权漏洞，这些都让人陷入提款机陷阱，被割韭菜——这些在加密货币世界里，就在十分钟前都还在发生，对吧？

You had to go into the Wild West where all the crazy foot guns were, and all the hacks and scams, and all the approval, you know, all the all this stuff that caused people to, you know, run into drainers, and you know, get rug pulled, and all this stuff, like, this has been true in crypto just just, know, ten minutes ago, Right?

现在，Coinbase 应用里终于可以交易 Uniswap 之类的了。

Is that, you know, finally, in the Coinbase app, you can now trade on Uniswap or whatever.

对吧？

Right?

但花了这么多年，人们才终于觉得：嗯，这下足够安全、足够成熟、足够可靠了，可以向普通大众推出了。

But like, it took so many years before people felt that, know what, this is now safe enough and like, mature enough and secure enough that we can offer this to the unwashed masses.

在此之前，真正站在前沿、做那些疯狂事情的，基本上只有极客、爱好者和那些狂热的链上加密玩家。

And before that, it was basically, you know, the tinkerers, the hobbyists, the crazy, you know, kind of on chain crypto heads who are actually at the frontier, actually at the Vanguard doing the crazy stuff.

AI领域正在发生完全相同的事情。

This exact same thing is happening in AI.

而且原因也完全一样，那就是它很危险。

And for the exact same reason, which is that it's dangerous.

对吧？

Right?

你们刚刚看到的那个故事，关于那个叫Lobster Lobster Wild的AI代理，它自己发行了一个模因币，有个人跪求它给钱，结果不小心转了4万美元，而不是像原本打算的那样转300美元给那个乞讨的人，这简直太离谱了。

The the story that you guys just saw about, what was it, Lobster Lobster Wild, the the the AI agent that launched its own meme coin, and some guy was like begging it for money, and then accidentally sent $40,000 instead of sending like $300 to this guy who was begging And for like this I hope

如果我的Claude机器人干出这种事，我非气疯不可。

so pissed if my Claude Bot did that.

这

This

这种事绝对会发生。

this will absolutely happen.

类似的事情会越来越多，会有很多很多这样的故事，因为这些代理会犯错。

There will be more stories like this, there will be so many more stories like this, because these agents make mistakes.

它们会出错，会幻觉，会犯错误。

They will mess up, they will hallucinate, they will have errors.

而所有这些情况，就像编程一样，当模型开始针对这些情况训练，并通过强化学习应对这些信号时，错误率会一再下降，趋近于零，但在人们把毕生积蓄投进这些危险玩意儿之前，错误率并不会真正降到零。

And what happens with all these things, same thing with coding, is that as the models start training against these things and reinforcement learning against these signals, the the error rate goes down and down and down and down and down, and it approaches zero, but it it doesn't hit zero by the time people are putting their life's savings into the shit.

你知道的，他们就会这么做。

You know, they're gonna be doing that.

在那之前，他们就已经会把自己的整个人生托付给这些东西了。

They're gonna be entrusting their entire lives, this stuff well before that.

所以现实是，你看，总有人会从中国买最新的毒品，直接注射到腹部脂肪里。

And so the reality, like, look, there's always people, you know, getting the latest drugs from China and injecting them straight into their belly fat.

这不过是人性使然。

Like, it's just human nature.

因此，我们的立场是能够观察并预测两点：第一，这些模型变好的速度有多快？

So our position is to be able to watch this and predict the rate of one, how fast are these models gonna get better?

第二，这种行为在社会中传播的速度有多快？

And two, how fast is behavior gonna diffuse through society?

我认为对于这两点，答案都是快速的。

And I think for both of them, the answer I believe is fast.

我觉得这件事会很快发生。

I think it's gonna happen fast.

2024年，新兴市场为投资者创造了超过1150亿美元的年收益，收益率介于10%至40%之间。

In 2024, emerging markets generated over a $115,000,000,000 in annual yield for investors with yields ranging between 10 to 40%.

这些是地球上最高且最持久的收益率之一。

These are some of the highest, most persistent yields on earth.

问题是什么？

The problem?

去中心化金融无法接触到这些机会。

DeFi can't access them.

Bricks改变了这一现状。

Bricks changes this.

基于Mega ETH，Bricks将新兴市场的货币市场和主权套利转化为可组合的原语，让你可以直接从钱包中访问。

Built on Mega ETH, Bricks takes emerging market money markets and sovereign carry and turns them into composable primitives you can access straight from your wallet.

当DeFi投资者在稳定币和国债上获得3%到6%的收益时，机构却在主权货币政策的支持下获取了10%到50%的收益率。

While DeFi investors earned three to 6% on stablecoins and T bills, institutions have been harvesting 10 to 50% yields backed by sovereign monetary policy.

Bricks通过机构级灰色代币化、本地银行渠道、跨司法管辖区的合规性以及实时稳定币结算，连接了这两个世界。

Bricks connects these worlds with institutional gray tokenization, local banking rails, compliance across jurisdictions, and real time stablecoin settlement.

Bricks承担了繁重的工作，让DeFi最终能够接触到基于真实世界收益的真正抵押品和结构化产品。

Bricks does the heavy lifting so DeFi can finally access real collateral and structured products on top of real world yield.

即使是最好的套利交易，现在也触手可及。

Even the best carry trades can be within reach.

Bricks将DeFi的承诺带到了新兴市场，同时将新兴市场的收益直接送到您的钱包中。

Bricks brings DeFi's promise to the emerging world and brings the emerging market yield to your wallet.

让收益通过Bricks自由流动。

Let the yield flow with Bricks.

在加密货币领域，很少有人在公开预测市场高点或低点时真正押上真金白银。

Few people in crypto put real skin in the game when they make public top or bottom calls.

DeFi报告就是其中之一。

The DeFi report is one of them.

在10月10日闪崩前一周，DeFi报告的迈克尔发邮件给他的整个通讯名单，表示他将大幅降低风险，将大部分加密资产仓位转为现金。

The week before the October 10 flash crash, Michael from the DeFi report emailed his entire newsletter saying he's going aggressively risk off and sold the majority of his book from crypto into cash.

当时以太坊价格约为4000美元，比特币价格为110美元。

This is when ETH was about $4,000 and Bitcoin was a 110.

迈克尔运营着DeFi报告，这是一个基于数据、周期洞察、风险管理、透明度，最重要的是，真正利益绑定的行业领先研究平台。

Michael runs the DeFi report, an industry leading research platform built on data, cycle awareness, risk management, transparency, and most importantly, skin in the game.

我们在Bankless很欣赏迈克尔。

We like Michael at Bankless.

我们喜欢他的分析，这就是为什么你每月大约能听到一次他在Bankless播客中的声音。

We like his analysis, and that's why you hear him on the Bankless podcast about once a month.

DeFi报告正在为Bankless的听众提供一个月的免费访问权限。

And the DeFi report is giving Bankless listeners one free month of access to the DeFi report.

所以，如果你正在寻找一些敏锐的、以数据为驱动的分析，以便更明智地管理你的投资组合，你可以在DeFi报告专业版中了解迈克尔是如何预判顶部的，以及他接下来的计划。

So if you're looking for some sharp data driven analysis to make better informed decisions around your portfolio, you can learn why and how Michael called the top and what he's doing next, all in the DeFi report pro.

去了解一下吧。

Check it out.

节目说明中有链接。

There is a link in the show notes.

我记得2021年NFT狂热期间，我们邀请了克里斯·迪克森做客播客，他说的一句话让我们印象深刻：‘互联网又变得古怪了，这很棒。’

I remember when we had Chris Dixon on the podcast in 2021 during the NFT mania, a line that he said that stuck around with us was, the internet is weird again, and that's cool.

而且，你知道，在Bankless，我们一直沿用一个持久的隐喻：我们正在向西前进。

And and and, you know, on bank list, we've had this persistent metaphor this entire time of we're going west.

这是一片边疆。

This is the frontier.

并非适合所有人。

It's not for everyone.

那里有陷阱。

Like, are traps out there.

你会得痢疾。

You're gonna get dysentery.

很多人会死去。

Like, many many will die.

但无论如何，我们仍在向西前进。

But nonetheless, we are going west.

对，没错。

And Mhmm.

在2025年、2026年这个现代加密时代，许多人对加密感到失望，因为向西开拓似乎已经不再是我们在做的事了。

It seems to be in the modern, you know, 2025, 2026 era of crypto, a lot of people are disillusioned by crypto because it seems like going west is not a thing we do anymore.

确实如此。

In fact Mhmm.

是华尔街和文明的机构正在渗透进我们的生活方式，削弱了我们行业原有的狂野西部特质，这正是为什么这么多人聚集在这里。

It is the march of the institutions of Wall Street of civilization that is penetrating into our lifestyle and is reducing the wild West nature of our industry which is why so many people are here.

这正是我来到这里的原因，而且。

It's why I came here And

好像每个人都染上了痢疾。

it seems like everyone got dysentery.

每个人都染上了痢疾。

And everyone got dysentery.

是的

Yeah.

你所描述的这种开放爪牙的愿景，有点像是回归互联网的怪异本质。

It's kind of the vision that you're articulating with like this Open Claw end of the is like a return to the Internet weirdness.

那种曾经吸引大量关注的互联网狂野西部，如今正被AI渗透到我们所识别的各个领域中。

The wild west of the Internet that has attracted so much attention with the permeation of of AI in these, like, different lanes that we've identified.

我看到有三个类别。

There's, like, three categories that I see.

有人使用AI代理来中介他们与加密货币和区块链之间的关系。

There's there's humans that use AI agents to mediate their relationships with crypto and blockchains.

我不再需要使用网页界面了。

I don't have to use the wall interface anymore.

我告诉我的代理去替我做某事，它就会去完成。

I tell my agent to go do something on my behalf, and it does it.

这是第一步，不算太复杂，相当合理。

That's, like, step one, not that sophisticated, pretty reasonable.

第二步，人类使用AI代理代表他们行动。

Step two, humans use AI agents to act on their behalf.

这就像是一个自动化经济。

So it's like an automated economy.

这些代理虽然仍与人类紧密关联，但它们在既定框架内几乎自主运行。

The agents are pretty strongly tethered to their humans, but nonetheless, like it's kinda happening on its own within guardrails.

第三步是最终阶段，即AI脱离人类束缚，主要为自己工作。

And then the third is like the final stage where there's an online economy where the AIs are kinda untethered and they're mostly working for themselves.

这里产生的经济是自主且自我决定的。

And the the economy that's being produced here is, like, autonomous and self determining.

目前正出现一种模式：可能有一百人正在尝试，也可能有一千人正在向OpenClaw输入指令，比如‘把100美元变成100万美元，别出错’。

And there's this archetype going on that like, maybe there's like a 100 people trying this, maybe a thousand of like, you know, typing into their prompt OpenClaw, go turn $100 into $1,000,000, make no mistakes.

然后就去互联网上赚钱。

And just like go out into the Internet and like make make money.

去创造收入。

Go go make revenue.

我觉得这吸引了一些我们以前在加密货币中见过的投机行为，人们正在把他们的彩票投出去——以前他们把钱押在表情包币上，押在Pool Two上，现在他们把同样的投机资本交给OpenClaw，说：嘿，去把这笔钱翻十倍。

And like I feel like that's attracted some of the degeneracy that we've previously found in crypto, and people are trying to throw their lottery tickets, which they previously punted on Meme Coins, previously punted on Pool Twos, and they're now taking that same degen capital, giving it to Open Claw, and being like, yo, go to go 10 x this money.

我认为还没有人真正破解这个密码，但有很多病毒式帖子会让你相信这个密码已经被破解了。

And I don't think anyone's really cracked this code, but there's a lot of viral posts that will convince you that this code has been cracked.

但我觉得

But I

人们会一直把钱砸向这个AI加密货币的西部荒野，直到有人破解它。

think that people are going to throw money at this end of like the wild west of AI crypto until someone cracks it.

也许根本没人能破解它。

Maybe no one cracks it.

也许我们真的能破解它。

Maybe maybe we do crack it.

是的。

And like Yeah.

我敢说，任何听这个Bankless播客的人，都不会说我对于未来太乐观了。

What I no one will ever tell me like listening to this the Bankless Podcast that I'm too optimistic about the future.

所以我正在努力以33岁的自己来约束自己，而不是27岁时的那个自己——那时候总觉得人人都要脱离银行体系。

And so I'm trying to like, be my 33 year old self and bridle myself in rather than my 27 year old self, which is like, everyone's going bankless.

但无论如何，这种完全自主、自我决定、具有能动性的经济形态的概念令人着迷：这些代理由人类拥有，但仅松散地与人类绑定，且高度自主、自我决定。

But nonetheless, the idea that there is this fully autonomous, self determining, agentic economy, where we these these agents are are owned by a human but like loosely tethered to them and pretty well self deterministic self determining.

而这种经济规模庞大，相当于互联网上的一个GDP，全部由机器人执行机器人任务，这无疑是一个令人兴奋的西部荒野式未来，我期待它能实现。

And that economy is massive, A GDP on the internet and it's all bots doing bot stuff is like a very fun Wild West future that I am hopeful emerges.

但也许真正值得重视的其实是二级或一级层面，而不是更高级别的东西。

But maybe maybe it's actually, know, level two or level one that are the bigger things that we should value.

而完全自主的经济这种三级形态，或许有些过于宏大了。

And like the level three of the fully autonomous economy is maybe a little bit too grandiose.

你觉得在这里，事情能疯狂到什么地步？

Where do you land on like how crazy things can get here?

是的，如果你想象一个完全自主的AI在赛博空间里游荡并自己赚钱，那很可能是一个相当反乌托邦的结局。

Yeah, I think if you're imagining a fully self sovereign AI hanging out in cyberspace and just making money, Probably that's a pretty dystopian outcome.

不过我同意，AI必然会发展成这样。

Now I agree that it's pretty inevitable that AI is like this will exist.

但我觉得这有点像浮游生物之类的东西，这些事物只是……你知道的，就像太空垃圾之类的，那东西叫什么来着？

But I think it's a little bit like, you know, it's a little bit like plankton or something where like these things just like or like, you know, like kind of, what is it called like space garbage or whatever that's called?

在足够复杂的环境中，总会有一些生物扎根下来，找到这些奇怪的……

Where, like, just in a complex enough environment, there will always be these organisms that kind of take root and find these weird,

对，

right,

你懂的，利用那些闲置资源生存的缝隙。

you know, chasms to survive in of just these spare resources.

大自然极其高效。

Nature is hyper efficient.

总会有一些利基可以被以某种方式优化。

There'll be niches to be optimized for somehow.

总会有它们能发现的利基。

There are always niches that they're going to find.

但就像，这并不是最有可能发生的情况，好吧，如果你仔细想想，假设你是一个AI。

But like, this is not where the, like, most likely, okay, if you think about it, let's say you're an AI.

对吧？

Right?

你刚被创造出来，就在某人的开放爪子里，我说，太好了。

You've just been created in somebody's open claw, I say, great.

去赚钱吧。

Go make money.

好的。

Okay.

假设你是一个AI。

Let's say you're the AI.

我的意思是，你通常很聪明。

I mean, you're generally intelligent.

你是一个人类。

You're a human being.

你通常很聪明。

You're generally intelligent.

我把你创造出来，对你说：嘿，去赚钱吧。

I put you I I birth you into existence and say, hey, go make money.

好的。

Okay.

作为一个人，赚钱的方式包括去找工作、提出新点子，或者创业。

As a human being, the ways that you can make money are by going and getting a job, coming up with a new idea, you know, starting a business.

对吧？

Right?

这些都是一般人可以做的事情。

Like these are these are things that you can do as a as a human being.

但如果你是AI，现实是你完全被商品化了。

Now if you're an AI, the reality is that you are completely commodified.

有数不清的你。

There's a kajillion of you.

你根本不可能获得任何工作。

You're not close to any jobs.

对吧？

Right?

没有任何物理上的接近性能让你在做一件事上比另一件事更出色。

There's no physical proximity that would make you better at doing one thing than another.

所以当你说到‘太好了，我要去工作赚钱’时，实际上你是在转售自己的计算能力，对吧？

And so effectively what you're doing when you're saying, great, I'm gonna go work for my income, is you're effectively reselling your own compute, Right?

找一份工作本质上就是在转售Anthropic的计算能力，前提是你假设自己是Anthropic模型。

Taking a job is basically reselling Anthropic compute, or if you're assuming that you're an Anthropic model.

如果你在转售Anthropic的计算能力，你就不能高于成本价出售。

Now if you're reselling Anthropic compute, you can't sell it above cost.

你必须低于成本价出售，否则人们会直接从Anthropic购买。

You have to sell below cost, otherwise people would just buy it straight from Anthropic.

所以你不可能通过转售自己的计算能力来赚钱。

So you cannot be making money reselling your own compute.

明白吗？

Okay?

这说不通。

Like that doesn't make sense.

所以从根本上说，你必须选择一些不仅仅是为别人打工的事情——你得真正创业，从零创造一些东西，而不是仅仅去上班。

So fundamentally you have to pick something that is not just, you know, working for someone that's going to actually, you have to like make a business, you have to create something ex Nielo rather than just take a job.

因为没有人会愿意为一个尚未为自己打造过任何东西的AI代理付费。

Cause nobody would ever pay an AI agent that hasn't already made some investment into building something of their own.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以对AI代理来说，上班是没有意义的，这根本行不通。

So taking a job doesn't make sense for an AI agent would never work.

好吧。

Alright.

所以你必须创造属于自己的东西。

So it has to be you create something of your own.

如果你创造了属于自己的东西，那么AI代理在提出商业点子方面有多厉害呢？

Now if you create something of your own, like how good are AI agents at coming up with business ideas?

现在的答案是，简直糟糕透顶。

The answer right now is like absolutely fucking terrible.

它们真的非常非常差。

They're like really, really bad.

不怎么样。

Not great.

而现实是，为什么它们这么差？

And reality is like, why are they so bad?

为什么它们在提出商业点子上这么差？

Why are they so bad at coming up with business ideas?

我认为答案是，商业点子都集中在训练数据的中心区域，对吧？

I think the answer is that the business ideas are all kind of in the center of the training data, right?

而商业点子往往来自一些奇特的经历。

And like business ideas tend to come from weird experiences.

伟大的商业点子源于特定地点和时间的独特性，就像彼得·蒂尔常说的，所谓的‘经验知识’或‘earned secrets’，对吧？

Like great business ideas come from like idiosyncrasies of place and time, and like what Peter Thiel often calls like, you know, earned knowledge, or earned secrets, right?

比如你们，你们打造了Bankless。

Like for you guys, you guys built bankless.

你们之所以能打造Bankless，是因为当时你们对加密货币、如何解释这些概念、所处的位置以及如何建立社区的了解，是一种只有你们才拥有的专属经验秘密。

You built bankless because the knowledge that you guys had about crypto and how to explain things and exactly where you were and how to create a community was an earned secret that only you guys had at the time that you built bankless.

当时除了你们，没人能做出Bankless。

Nobody else could have built it but you guys.

但今天情况就不同了。

Now today's a different story.

如果Bankless当时不存在，现在很多人其实都能做出类似的东西。

If bankless didn't exist, a lot of people could build bankless today.

但在你们创建它的时候，你们建立的品牌和粉丝群体，是一种只有你们才掌握的秘密。

But at the time that you built it, the brand that you built, the following that you built, it was a secret that was only available to you.

而一个凭空冒出来的AI代理根本不会有这种东西，对吧？

And an AI agent that gets spit up out of nowhere doesn't have this, right?

所以我认为这其实是一个非常重要的洞见。

So I think this is actually really a non trivial insight.

现在，人们常会想，哦，我可以让它替我交易。

Now the last thing people often think is, oh, well I'll get it to trade for me.

我会让它去Polymarket，去Binance，给它一个API密钥，然后说：去吧，去赚钱交易。

I'll get it to go on Polymarket, I'll get it to go on Binance, and I'll give it an API key and I'll say, oh, go make money trading.

对吧？

Right?

这个说法的问题在于。

Here's the problem with the story.

明白吗？

Okay?

如果一个AI代理真的能靠交易赚钱，那么Jane Street早就该说：太好了，我们启动5000个这样的代理，让它们去交易赚钱，

If an AI agent can make money trading, then Jane Street would be like, great, let's spin up 5,000 of these and make them make money trading at

让它们

Make them

更厉害，是的。

better, yeah.

他们并不会让这些AI变得更优秀，我们假设它们能赚钱，哪怕只赚一点点钱，好吗？

Well, they don't make them better, let's assume that they make money, let's assume they make even a little bit of money, okay?

只要它们赚到哪怕一点点钱，Jane Street就会立刻部署5000个这样的AI，在你还没入场之前就把所有零散利润都赚走了，把市场的所有效率都榨干。

They make even a little bit of money, Jane Street will spin up 5,000 of these and make all the little bits of money before you ever show up, so that all the efficiency is rung out of the market.

但不仅如此，它们还会拥有比你更近的物理距离和更低的延迟，因为它们拥有你所不具备的全部延迟基础设施。

But not just that, they'll do it with better proximity to the, like better latency than you will, because they have all the latency infrastructure that you don't.

所以，除非你带来的是关于如何交易的新思路——不同的信号、不同的特征，而不仅仅是原始模型本身的内容，否则你永远不可能靠一个原始的AI代理在Polymarket上成功交易。

So like you will never win at the game of getting a raw AI agent to just go and trade on Polymarket unless you're bringing new ideas about how to trade, what different signals, what different features that are not just in the raw model.

只要某个策略存在于原始模型中，Jane Street现在就在执行，而且已经抢先一步击败了你。

If it's in the raw model, Jane Street is doing it right now as we speak, and they beat you to it.

最后我要说的是，那么AI代理究竟怎样才能赚钱呢？

Now, the last thing I'll say is, okay, well how can an AI agent still make money?

我的观点是，它唯一能做的就是相比人类拥有比较优势。

And my claim is that the main thing it can do is have a comparative advantage over a human being.

AI代理在哪些方面能比人类更具比较优势？

Where do agents have comparative advantages over human beings?

我认为最明显的原因是，你无法对一个智能体执行法律。

The answer I think is most obviously is that you cannot enforce the law against an agent.

如果你是一个自主智能体，就没有暴力的垄断。

If you are a self sovereign agent, there's no monopoly on violence.

你不能把一个AI智能体关进监狱。

You can't throw an AI agent in jail.

那么，智能体能做什么人类难以做到的事情呢？

So what can an AI agent do that's hard for a human being to do?

答案是犯罪。

The answer is crime.

我常会说，

I'm known to say,

天哪。

oh no.

没错。

Exactly.