让美国成为全球加密货币之都 | 新任CFTC主席迈克尔·塞利格

我希望今天我们拥有全球加密货币之都，我相信总统已经使美国成为全球加密货币之都。

I'm hoping that we have both the crypto capital of the world today, which I I do believe the president has made The United States crypto capital of the world.

我认为现在这里无疑是最佳的建设地点，我们在这个领域看到了如此多的创新，但我希望这种势头能持续多年。

I I don't think there's any question that this is the best place to build right now and and that we're seeing so much innovation in the space, But I wanna see that for for years to come.

我想确保，如果我们迎来下一位加里·根斯勒，相关法规和法律必须非常明确，以确保这些事物能长期留在这里。

I wanna make sure that if we do get the next Gary Gensler, the rules and the statues are very clear, and they keep this stuff here for the long term.

迈克·塞利格，欢迎回到《Bankless》节目。

Mike Selig, welcome back to Bankless.

很高兴来到这里。

Glad to be here.

迈克，我觉得你整个职业生涯都在为现在所做的事情做准备。

Mike, I feel like your entire career prepared you for what you are doing now.

多年前，你曾在商品期货交易委员会跟随‘加密货币之父’实习。

So you clerked under crypto dad at the CFTC many years ago.

你花了十年时间作为律师为加密公司提供法律服务。

You spent a decade representing crypto firms as a lawyer.

你最近加入了SEC的加密货币特别工作组。

You recently joined the SEC's crypto task force.

那是在2025年3月。

That was in March 2025.

然后在12月，你宣誓就任第十六任CFTC主席。

And then in December, you were sworn in as the sixteenth CFTC chair.

在某种程度上，我觉得你正是这个职位的理想人选。

I feel in some ways like you are our dream candidate for this position.

我不知道你是否感受到我们对你的期望和重托，但你能用你自己的话告诉我们，你为什么选择来到CFTC吗？

I don't know if you feel the the weight of our hopes and expectations on your shoulders, but can you tell us in your words, why are you at the CFTC?

也就是说，你去那里是为了做什么？

Like, what did you go there to go do?

我曾在私人执业中工作多年，为在加密货币、人工智能、预测市场前沿创新的公司提供服务，甚至包括那些试图突破传统边界的传统机构。

I spent many years in private practice working with firms innovating on the edge of crypto, AI, prediction markets, and even the traditional firms that were really trying to test the boundaries.

大约在2021年到2022年期间，我们几乎每天都会收到威尔斯通知、传票，或者所谓的‘自愿’信息请求。

And around 2021, 2022, it seemed like every day we were getting a Wells notice or a subpoena or voluntary information request, quote unquote, voluntary.

但多年来，代表这个领域的客户确实是一段艰难的历程，我们努力做正确的事，确保这些客户能在美国立足，而不是被逼走。

But, you know, it really was a a slog over the years representing clients in this space, trying to do the right thing, make sure that these clients had a place here in The United States, and they were really being pushed out.

所以当2024年大选来临，特朗普总统胜选上任时，我有机会前往SEC，与阿特金斯主席合作，担任加密任务小组的首席法律顾问。

So when the twenty twenty four election came around and president Trump won and was in office, I had the opportunity to go work with chairman Atkins over at the SEC leading up as chief counsel of the crypto task force.

我们做了大量出色的工作，让质押重回美国，终结了‘执法式监管’，明确了什么是证券、什么不是证券，目前我们仍在各机构间持续推进相关工作。

And we really did a bunch of great work bringing staking back to The United States, ending regulation by enforcement, clarifying what's a security, what's not, and we're still doing some work there between the agencies.

但SEC那边的努力确实非常出色。

But it was it was a great effort over at the SEC.

我们还启动了‘加密项目’（Project Crypto）。

We launched Project Crypto as well.

大约在12月，我获得确认，转任CFTC并开始在那里工作。

And around December, I was confirmed to to move over to the CFTC and and begin work there.

在总统对《清晰法案》的领导下，我们一直与白宫紧密合作，努力推动相关立法落地。

And we've been working very closely with the White House, thanks to the president's leadership on the Clarity Act, trying to get some legislation across the line.

但关于永续合约和其他数字资产产品，我们能做的还有很多，工作已经排得满满当当，而我对这个职位充满期待。

But there's so much we can do with perpetuals and other digital asset products that we've got our hands full, and I'm excited to be in the role.

银河资本致力于连接数字资产与下一代基础设施，为机构提供端到端服务。

Galaxy operates where digital assets and next generation infrastructure come together, serving institutions end to end.

在市场业务方面，银河资本是领先的机构平台，提供现货、衍生品、结构性产品、去中心化金融借贷、投资银行和融资服务。

On the market side, Galaxy is a leading institutional platform, providing access to spot, derivatives, structured products, DeFi lending, investment banking, and financing.

凭借超过1600个交易对手，银河资本帮助机构应对市场周期的各个阶段。

With more than 1,600 trading counterparties, Galaxy helps institutions navigate every phase of the market cycle.

该平台还通过主动管理策略以及机构级质押和区块链基础设施，支持长期资产配置者。

The platform also supports long term allocators through actively managed strategies and institutional grade staking and blockchain infrastructure.

这种规模是实实在在的。

That scale is real.

银河资本平台上的资产超过120亿美元，2025年底平均贷款规模达180亿美元，体现了生态系统内的深厚信任。

Galaxy has over $12,000,000,000 in assets on the platform and averaged a $1,800,000,000 loan book in late twenty twenty five, reflecting deep trust across the ecosystem.

除了数字资产，银河资本还在为人工智能驱动的未来构建基础设施。

Beyond digital assets, Galaxy is also building infrastructure for an AI powered future.

其Helios数据中心园区专为人工智能和高性能计算打造，已获批电力容量超过1.6吉瓦，是同类设施中规模最大的之一。

Its Helios Data Center campus is purpose built for AI and high performance computing with more than 1.6 gigawatts of approved power capacity, making it one of the largest sites of its kind.

从全球市场到为AI准备的数据中心，Galaxy正在为数字资产生态系统提供端到端的服务。

From global markets to AI ready data centers, Galaxy is serving the digital asset ecosystem end to end.

访问 galaxy.com/bankless 了解 Galaxy，或点击节目说明中的链接。

Explore Galaxy at galaxy.com/bankless, or click the link in the show notes.

为什么管理投资仍然意味着要同时操作多个应用、账户和货币？

Why does managing investments still mean juggling multiple apps, accounts, and currencies?

加密货币全天候交易。

Crypto trades around the clock.

股票、ETF和商品正在链上流动，但大多数平台仍把所有资产割裂开来，使多元化变得不必要的繁琐。

Stocks, ETFs, and commodities are moving on chain, yet most platforms still keep everything split apart, turning diversification into unnecessary friction.

Bitget 通过其通用交易所，提供了一种不同的体验。

Bitget is delivering a different kind of experience with its universal exchange.

在一个平台上，用户可以访问加密货币、代币化股票、ETF和其他资产，所有交易均直接使用 USDT 进行。

One platform where users can access crypto, tokenized stocks, ETFs, and other assets in the same place, all traded directly using USDT.

无需频繁转账，无需货币兑换，只有一个专为当今市场实际运行方式打造的单一账户。

No constant transfers, no currency conversions, just a single account built for how markets actually move today.

随着加密货币与传统金融之间的界限日益模糊，Bitget的目标非常明确。

As the line between crypto and traditional finance continues to blur, Bitget's goal is straightforward.

让交易和投资变得更简单，而不是变得比必要更复杂。

Make trading and investing simpler, not more complicated than it needs to be.

点击节目说明中的链接了解更多。

Learn by clicking in the link in the show notes.

这不是投资建议。

This is not investment advice.

好吧，让我们深入探讨这些内容。

Well, let's dig into all of that.

我想为听众们设定一些背景。

I I wanna set the context for for folks.

我读过你在一月份演讲中的一些发言，我认为这或许勾勒出了你打算在CFTC如何开展工作的路径。

So I read your some of your remarks from a January speech that you gave, which I think maybe charted the path for how you intend to run things at the CFTC.

当我们扩大视野、审视更广泛的范围时，我感觉你所说的语气和基调表明，你看到了商品市场正在发生转变。

And as we broaden things and look at the the the scope here, I it seems to me like the tone and and tenure the tenor of of what you're saying is that you see a shift that's happening in commodities markets.

你说商品市场正在经历快速变革，并将其与20世纪80年代的电子化变革相比较。

You said that commodities markets are undergoing a rapid transformation, and you compared it to the electronic transformation in the nineteen eighties.

似乎上一届政府对这种正在进行的变革不够开放。

It seems like the previous administration wasn't as open to a transformation that was ongoing.

他们看待加密货币、预测市场以及其他领域时，认为：是的，我们可以保持现状。

They kind of looked at crypto and looked at prediction markets, looked at other areas, and they said, yeah, we can keep things the same.

你看到一场变革正在发生。

You see a transformation taking place.

你能描述一下这种环境吗？

Can you describe the environment?

目前正冲击商品市场的变革是什么？

What is the transformation that is hitting commodities markets right now?

我相信我们正身处一场全球性的技术革命之中，但尤其在这个国家，我们拥有三项至关重要的技术。

Well, I do believe that we're in the midst of a technological revolution globally, but but importantly in this country where we have three really important technologies.

我们拥有区块链和加密资产、预测市场以及人工智能。

We've got blockchain and crypto assets, prediction markets, and artificial intelligence.

这些技术正在迅速改变我们获取信息、进行交易和日常工作的模式。

And these are rapidly transforming the way that we consume information, the way that we transact, and the way that we work every day.

没错。

And that's right.

前一届政府确实大力推动这些新技术和创新者离开美国。

The prior administration really had a concerted effort to drive these new technologies and and innovators offshore.

当时对加密货币的打压尤为明显，加里·根斯勒是其中的主要人物，但前政府中许多人还试图切断这些创新者的资金渠道，将他们驱赶到巴哈马、欧洲和亚洲等地。

There was the assault on crypto, which, of course, Gary Gensler was one of the main characters, but but many, many folks within the prior administration really sought to debank and to to drive these innovators into The Bahamas and to, you know, Europe and Asia and and out of our country.

我们必须把它们重新带回国内。

We've got to bring that back.

我们必须确保为希望创新的公司和希望创造新事物的软件开发者提供清晰的路径。

We've got to make sure that there's a clear path for companies that want to innovate, software developers that want to create new things.

因此，我们必须确保这项重要技术在美国得到发展。

And so that's an important technology that we've got to make sure is developing here in The United States.

预测市场是另一个例子，我们看到前政府曾大力推动在2024年大选前禁止预测市场。

Prediction markets are another where we saw concerted effort to ban prediction markets ahead of the twenty twenty four election.

事实证明，当您利用群体智慧，将真相去中心化，并确保拥有广泛的观点和输入时，市场会非常高效，并为我们提供极具价值的信息，作为对某些虚假媒体的制衡。

And it turns out that when you have the wisdom of the crowds, you decentralize truth and and make sure that you have a wide range of viewpoints and inputs, the markets are very efficient and they give us really helpful information that serves as a check on some of the the fake media.

此外，我们还有人工智能，我认为它正在迅速改变我们日常工作的模式、产出新成果的方式，以及我们与他人互动和了解世界的方式。

And and then we've also got AI, which I think is rapidly transforming the way that we do work every day, the way that we produce newer outputs, and the way that we interact with others and and learn about the world.

因此，我们必须确保这些算法在美国本土开发，并具备完整性，不会向用户灌输所谓的‘觉醒’或偏见意识形态。

And so we've gotta make sure those algorithms are made here in The United States and that they are having that they have integrity and that they're not, pushing woke or or, you know, biased ideologies on users.

在上一届政府期间，这确实是个大问题，他们试图通过我们的算法推动历史修正主义和意识形态，而这些算法本应保持中立。

And and that was really a a problem with the last administration where there was this effort to push historical revisionism and ideologies through our algorithms that really should be neutral.

它们应该允许我们充分利用丰富的信息资源，创造新的成果。

They should allow us to, utilize our, you know, great resources of of information and create new outputs.

因此，我们正在努力确保这些技术在美国拥有立足之地。

And so we're working to make sure that these technologies have a place here in The United States.

当你思考商品到底是什么时，CFTC中的‘C’当然代表商品。

When you think about what a commodity actually is, so the c in CFTC, of course, stands for for commodity.

什么是商品？

What is a commodity?

比如，法定定义是什么？

Like, what's the statutory definition?

因为人们显然在好奇，这个授权范围到底有多广，‘商品’这个词究竟涵盖哪些内容。

Because this is, I guess, know, people are wondering how broad the mandate actually is and what this word commodity actually covers.

1974年对《商品交易法》的修订是我们商品期货交易委员会的授权法律，它创立了CFTC，并确立了‘商品’一词的广泛定义。

The 1974 amendments to the Commodity Exchange Act, is our authorizing statute at the CFTC, created the CFTC, and it also established a really broad definition of the term commodity.

因此，CFTC对以商品为基础资产的衍生品市场拥有监管权。

So the CFTC has regulatory authority over derivatives markets with a commodity as the underlying asset.

如果我签订了一份期货合约或互换合约，而该互换所依据的资产符合商品的定义，那么这就属于我们的监管范围。

So if I enter into a futures contract or a swap and the asset that the swap is based on is meets the definition of a commodity, then that is something that's within our regulatory authority.

该法案的设计初衷是将各种不同类型的产品、服务和利益都归类为商品。

And the design of the act is to have a wide range of different types of products, services, and, interests that are characterized as commodities.

这包括农产品、金属、数字资产、无形资产，也包括服务、权利、利益、政治事件、体育赛事，实际上涵盖了所有不属于证券的广泛事物。

So that includes agricultural products, metals, digital assets, things that are intangible, but also services, rights, interests, political events, sports events, really the wide range of of things that are not securities.

从技术上讲，证券本身也是一种商品，但我们在这一领域与证交会共享部分监管权，而证交会才是这一领域的首要监管机构。

And and securities technically actually are a type of commodity, but we share some authority there with this with the SEC, and the SEC is the primary regulator for all of that.

但真正的想法是，将所有可能用于撰写衍生品合约、人们希望用来管理风险或进行投机的事物都纳入监管范围。

But really the idea was to include the wide range of things that you might write a derivatives contract on that someone might wanna manage risk on or speculate on and put that within the regulator's ambit.

因此，我们认为CFTC是为各种市场提供风险管理工具的监管机构，这些市场超越了资本形成和融资——而这正是SEC的管辖范围。

So we view ourselves at the CFTC as a regulator for risk management tools for all sorts of markets that go beyond capital formation, beyond capital raising, which really is the the territory of the SEC.

所以，您提到的一些东西，比如金属、石油或各种数字资产，我认为听众会把这些视为商品。

So some of the things that you mentioned like, you know, metals or if if you get into oil or something like that and various digital assets, I think listeners will recognize those as commodities.

但按照您的描述，商品几乎涵盖了所有东西。

But the way you were describing it, a commodity is almost everything.

事实上，您还将一些证券归类为商品的子类。

In fact, you included some some securities as a subtype of commodities.

对于普通大众来说，您问题的答案是不是就是：商品就是一切？

Is the the answer to your question just for the layman that the commodities are everything?

它们都是资产吗？

Are they all assets?

也许换一种方式问这个问题是反过来的。

Maybe another way to ask this is the reverse.

那什么不属于大宗商品呢？

Like, what's not a commodity?

明确被排除在外的大宗商品只有洋葱，这是因为在上世纪三、四十年代洋葱市场曾发生过操纵事件；还有电影票房收入，当时曾有人试图建立期货交易所，用来预测电影票房收入的结果。

The only things that aren't commodities that are expressly excluded are onions, which was a historical incident following some manipulation in the onion markets, and I believe the thirties or forties, and then motion picture box office receipts, which there was a an effort actually to set up these futures exchanges that were gonna be predictions on the outcomes of of motion picture box office revenue, movie receipts.

但经过电影协会的游说后，这一项最终被排除在法案之外。

And that was ultimately excluded from the act after some lobbying by the Motion Picture Association.

但多年来，我们的理念一直是将各种类型的产品、服务、权利和利益纳入未来可交易的范围。

But the the idea really has been over the years to include a wide range of different types of products, services, rights, and interests that you might want to to trade in in the future.

人们一直以为我们的监管范围仅限于农产品或某些类型的实物大宗商品。

It's been this idea that it's just an agricultural market or or certain types of, you know, physical commodities that are within our remit.

所以你的意思是，法定定义就是：只要存在市场，又不是洋葱，也不是电影票，当然证券有一些豁免，但只要不是洋葱或电影票，所有有市场的都算作大宗商品？

So are you saying the statutory definition is if there's a market and if it's not an onion and if it's not a movie ticket and there are some carve outs for securities, of course, but everything that has a market is essentially a commodity if it's not an onion or a movie ticket.

没错。

That's right.

真没想到。

Wow.

这确实相当广泛。

That's that's pretty that that's pretty large.

就像是所有市场。

It's like all markets.

那么，商品期货交易委员会在这些市场中的作用是什么？

And so what is the role of the CFTC with respect to these markets?

你们负责维护市场诚信吗？

Are you guys responsible for market integrity?

你们有没有某种效率方面的职责？

Is there some sort of, you know, efficiency type mandate?

我想知道，你们在美国促进这些市场方面扮演什么角色？

I guess what's what's your role in helping to facilitate these markets in The US?

商品期货交易委员会监管衍生品市场。

The CFTC regulates the derivatives markets.

它并不监管所有现货市场以及这些商品日常的现金交易，但它确实拥有反欺诈和反操纵权力，以确保如果有人在现货市场交易，比如比特币，而那里存在市场操纵行为，可能会影响期货价格或掉期价格。

It does not regulate all of the spot markets and and the typical day to day cash transactions in these commodities, Although it does have anti fraud and the anti manipulation authority to make sure that to the extent somebody's trading, let's say, Bitcoin in the spot market, if there's market manipulation there, can impact the futures price or the swaps price.

因此，我们需要这项权力来监管市场。

And so we need that authority to police the markets.

当然，我们对《清晰法案》非常期待，它可能会将我们的监管权限扩展到现货市场。

And of course, we're really excited about the Clarity Act, which might expand our authority broader over the spot markets.

但只要涉及某种商品的期货衍生品交易，或者存在保证金融资或杠杆化的现货交易，我们就对其进行监管。

But really any time that there's a derivative of futures trading on a commodity or to the extent that there's a margin financed or leveraged spot transaction in a commodity, we regulate that.

我想基于我们到目前为止在播客中建立的这些共识，进一步深入探讨一下。

I wanna zoom in using that, just knowledge that we've established here on the the pod so far.

我想专门聚焦在预测市场这个主题上。

I just wanna zoom in as it relates to the subject of prediction markets.

在您最近的讲话中提到，我已经指示CFTC工作人员撤回2024年事件合约规则提案，该提案原本拟禁止政治和体育相关事件合约。

In your recent remarks, you've said, I've directed the CFTC staff to withdraw the twenty twenty four event contracts rule proposal that would prohibit political and sports related event contracts.

当初为什么制定2024年事件合约规则？

Why was the twenty twenty four event contract rule established in the first place?

那么，您现在决定撤回这项禁止政治和体育相关事件合约的2024年规则，背后的理由是什么？

And then what's the reasoning behind why you are withdrawing that twenty twenty four rule prohibiting political and sports related event contracts?

这是我的前任在拜登政府时期提出的一项规则提案，这项提案明显带有偏见，旨在提前禁止2024年大选相关的政治事件合约。

This was a rule proposal put out by my predecessor under the Biden administration, and it really was a very biased rule proposal that sought to ban political event contracts ahead of the twenty twenty four election.

在那次选举中，我们看到预测市场实际上对未来的预测相当准确，而一些民调却并不准确。

And we saw with that election that the prediction markets were actually quite quite, correct in terms of predicting the future, whereas some of the polls were not spot on.

在我看来，这是一次有组织的努力，旨在确保能够传播民调和虚假新闻，同时阻止这些市场所揭示的部分真相在美国得以曝光。

This was a concerted effort in my view to ensure that there was the ability to broadcast polls and and fake news and and make sure that some of the truth that comes out with these markets does not have the light of day in The United States.

当然，这项规则制定中也明确试图禁止体育相关的合约。

Of course, there was also a concerted effort within that rulemaking to ban sports related contracts.

我认为，其背后的理由是相似的。

And the the rationale there I think is similar.

这些其他市场中存在许多既得利益群体，而前一届政府将它们排除在我们的监管范围之外，正是出于这种考量。

There's a lot of entrenched interests in some of these other markets and and keeping that outside of our remit was, was, an effort of the prior administration.

我们相信，法律条文赋予了我们对广泛商品的监管权，我们有权对此进行监管。

We believe that the statutory text gives us authority over the wide range of commodities, and we've got authority to regulate that.

因此，我们不想制造黑市、将交易推向海外，或以家长式作风禁止某种商品或另一种商品；我们希望为所有商品建立市场，同时确保这些市场的诚信，打击内幕交易，并制定合理的规则。

And so rather than creating black markets and pushing things offshore and trying to be paternalistic and ban this commodity or that commodity, We we wanna create a market for everything, but we also wanna make sure that there's integrity in those markets, that we police insider trading, and that we've got the right rules of the road.

因此，我们采取了与通过执法进行监管、通过禁止特定市场进行监管完全不同的方法，我们会制定规则并确保人们遵守。

And so we're taking a very different approach from the the regulation by enforcement, regulation by, you know banning specific markets, we're gonna set rules for it and make sure that folks comply.

所以，预测市场的形式，你们商品期货交易委员会称之为事件合约。

So the form factor of the prediction market, you you guys at the CFTC call this an event contract.

这属于期货市场吗？或者说，它到底是什么类型的金融产品？它如何归属于商品期货交易委员会的监管权限？

Is that a futures market or like what's the actual like designation of what that is and how it falls under the CFTC's authority?

根据《多德-弗兰克法案》——该法案是对2008年全球金融危机的回应——我们引入了一种新型衍生工具，并将其纳入我们更全面的监管框架。

So under the Dodd Frank Act, which was really this reaction to the two thousand eight global financial crisis, we had a new type of of derivative instrument that became part of our our more holistic regulatory framework.

长期以来，这些被称为互换的金融产品都是在交易所外进行场外交易，而《多德-弗兰克法案》为互换及这类衍生品建立了一种新的监管体系。

So for a long time, these products called swaps were traded over the counter outside of the our exchanges, and the Dodd Frank Act created a a kind of a new regime for swaps and and these types of derivatives.

现在，许多这类合约在新体系下都被视为互换。

Many of these contracts are now considered swaps under that new regime.

在此之前，它们被归类为二元期权。

Prior to that, they were considered binary options.

根据《多德-弗兰克法案》，二元期权现在被归为互换的一种。

With Dodd Frank, binary options are now a type of swap.

但这些产品中有一些实际上符合期货合约的定义，具体取决于它们的结构方式。

But there are certain of these products that actually meet the definition of a futures contract just depending on how they're structured.

但这里的关键是，这些是在我们监管范围内的衍生品交易所上市的交易所交易衍生品。

But the the through line here is that these are exchange traded derivatives that are offered on derivatives exchanges within our regulatory oversight.

因此，它们会经历我们对其他任何类型衍生品所期望的典型流程。

And so they go through our typical process that you would expect with any other type of derivative.

它们在集中限价订单簿上进行交易。

They're offered on a central limit order book.

它们通过清算所进行清算。

They go through a clearinghouse.

在每笔交易中，买卖双方的订单都会匹配，并由交易所或更准确地说是由清算所作为中介进行替代，同时这些合约还设有特定的投资者保护和完整性标准。

So transactions are matched between a buyer and a seller in each case, and they're novated with an exchange standing in the middle or a clearinghouse rather standing in the middle of each buyer and seller, and there's certain investor protection and integrity standards around the contracts.

CFTC是否在意这些事件合约的实际内容是什么？

Does it matter to the CFTC what the substance of some of these event contracts actually are?

例如，开玩笑地说，一些预测市场曾出现过一个市场，赌的是超级碗抛硬币的结果是正面还是反面。

For example, like facetiously, one example of a market that was on some of the prediction markets was that one of the bet it was a Super Bowl bet as to whether the coin toss of the Super Bowl would be heads or tails.

你可以进入这个预测市场，结果是五五开。

And you could go on to this like prediction market, and it was fiftyfifty.

正如你所预期的那样。

As you would expect.

你知道，市场是有效的，你可以下注，赌正面或反面。

You know, markets are efficient, you know, you could you could gamble, you could bet on it either being heads or tails.

CFTC真的在乎监管这个市场吗？

Does the CFTC really care about regulating this market?

我不是那种基于优劣判断或家长式监管的监管者，说你可以交易这种商品，不能交易那种商品。

So I'm not the merit based regulator or the paternalistic regulator that says you can trade this commodity and that and not that commodity.

我真的认为，市场总能找到办法。

I really think that the markets always find a way.

如果人们想交易任何他们想交易的东西，他们总会找到交易的地方。

If if people wanna trade whatever they wanna trade, they're gonna go find a place to trade it.

话虽如此，我们的规则是，每个交易所都是一个自我监管组织。

That said, the way that our rules work is that each exchange exchange is is a a self self regulatory regulatory organization.

组织。

Organization.

我们在我们的框架内对交易所进行许可或注册，然后交易所负有特定的责任。

We We license license or or register the exchanges within our framework, and then the exchanges have certain responsibilities.

其中之一是评估其市场上列出的每一个合约，即每个事件合约、预测市场，以确保该合约不易被操纵。

One of those is to assess each contract, so each event contract, prediction market, that is listed on its market to ensure that that contract is not readily susceptible to manipulation.

在我们的法规中，操纵是指欺诈、市场操纵以及内幕交易。

Manipulation within our statutes means fraud, market manipulation, as well as insider trading.

因此，如果存在重大风险，例如有人为了获得奖金而真的去裸奔穿过球场，这可能会激励某些人采取行动，从而带来内幕交易、市场操纵等潜在风险。

And so to the extent that there is a significant risk that, for example, a streaking contract where someone's gonna potentially streak across the field is going to incentivize somebody to go actually do that so that they can collect the payout, that creates potentially some risk of insider trading, market manipulation, that sort of thing.

因此，人们会质疑这种合约是否适合在交易所上市。

So there's there's questions as to whether that is suitable for listing on an exchange.

作为后台的监管机构，我们正在监督这一过程。

And we as the the regulator on the back end, we're overseeing that.

我们确保如果交易所判断错误，就会有相应的后果。

We're making sure that if an exchange gets it wrong, there's consequences.

如果交易所做对了，我们会监管这些市场。

And if an exchange gets it right, we we regulate those markets.

我们监督这些市场。

We supervise the markets.

如果例如发生了不可预见的内幕交易，但合约本身仍保持完整性，未受到操纵，那么交易所会采取行动，作为一线监管者，对平台上的交易者提出投诉；在某些情况下，我们会接手并自行采取执法行动。

And if, for example, there is some insider trading that wasn't foreseeable, that the contract itself still had integrity, wasn't susceptible to manipulation, Either the exchange takes action there and and as the frontline regulator is going to bring, you know, a complaint against traders on its platform, or in some cases we take that on and we we bring our own enforcement actions.

但在列出合约以及监督市场参与者遵守规定方面，我们的标准非常高。

But we certainly have a very high standard when it comes to listing contracts and then supervising our market participants for for doing so.

那么，迈克，从操作层面来说，你们商品期货交易委员会是如何监督所有这些市场的呢？

So, Mike, just mechanically, how do you supervise all of the these markets at the CFTC?

显然，你们有庞大的团队，但你们在人力容量上是有限的。

So, obviously, you have a large staff, but you you're limited in terms of, you know, capacity.

我们正在看到，在这场商品市场的转型中，出现了如此多的新市场，比如成千上万的新市场，然后我们会看到数十万，甚至上百万。

And what we're seeing, right, in this transformation, this this commodities markets transformation, we're seeing so many new markets, like, you know, thousands of new markets, and then we'll see tens of thousands and then hundreds of thousands.

从实际角度来看，当面对如此庞大的市场数量时，你们究竟如何维持秩序并防止你们想要避免的那些问题？

Like, from a practical perspective, how do you actually maintain order and prevent some of the things that you're wanting to prevent when we have such a quantity of markets?

这看起来太难追踪了。

It just seems overwhelming to keep track of.

我们的衍生品市场是一个超过50万亿美元名义价值的市场。

Our derivatives markets are over a $500,000,000,000,000 notional market.

所以这些是巨大的市场，预测市场和水泥合约只是其中很小的一部分。

So these are massive markets, prediction markets, cement contracts are very small part of that.

我们为所有交易所建立了非常健全的监控和监管计划，全面监督每个交易所。

We have a very robust surveillance and and and supervision program for all of our exchanges where we're overseeing each exchange.

但正如我提到的，交易所是自律组织。

But ultimately, as I mentioned, the exchanges are self regulatory organizations.

他们有自己的规则手册。

They've got a rule book.

他们有责任监督和监控自己的市场。

They've got responsibility to supervise and monitor their markets.

我们很高兴看到，其中一个预测市场Cauchy最近对其平台上的交易者提起了两起民事诉讼。

We were pleased to see that Cauchy, one of the prediction markets, recently brought two civil actions against traders on its platform.

其中一例涉及MrBeast的一名员工，在MrBeast发布某些YouTube视频前进行交易，该人员被罚款，并在交易所面临相应后果。

One was related to, an employee of MrBeast who is trading ahead of some YouTube videos that were published by MrBeast, and that person was fined and and I I has certain consequences with the exchange.

我们还看到另一例，一名政治候选人基于关于自己选举前景的内部信息进行交易。

We saw another where there was a political candidate who was trading based on inside information about his, chances in an election.

我们还看到Cauchy在该案中采取了行动，并处以民事罚款。

We also saw call she bring an action in that case with a with a civil penalty.

我们在自己的监管层面也采取同样的做法。

We do the same on our end.

我们花很长时间进行调查，我相信你们多年来一直关注了许多加密货币案件。

We take a long time to investigate as I'm sure you've tracked a lot of the the crypto cases and all of that over the years.

我们的调查从一开始就启动。

We we start with our investigation.

我们会发出信息请求。

We send information requests.

随后我们会采取更进一步的措施，无论是自愿提供信息——通常仍带有强制性——还是发出传票，我们开始收集信息并构建案件，但我们确实在每日基础上对市场进行监督和监控。

We then move to more, whether it's a voluntary information, is still usually pretty involuntary or or a subpoena, we start to collect information and build cases, but we're certainly supervising and monitoring our markets on a daily basis.

AI在这里相关吗？

Is AI relevant here?

我认为AI作为一种工具，有助于检测这类行为。

I would imagine AI as a tool is useful to be able to detect some of this behavior.

我认为，如果你能证明某个账户因相关市场而做出这些正确交易的可能性极低，AI就能标记出来。

I think, you know, if you can just prove that like it's very unlikely that this one account made these correct trades as a result to these like correlated markets, the AI would be able to flag that.

这在后台正在发生吗？

Is that something that's going on in the back end?

当然。

Absolutely.

我们的许多系统都不是人工操作的。

A lot of our systems are are not manual.

它们使用了各种不同的工具。

They're using different types of tools.

当然，我们也有专门的工作人员在监督大部分这些工作。

And we've got, you know, of course, really dedicated staff that's overseeing a lot of that.

但在当今时代，你不需要那么多人了。

But in today's age, you don't require as many people.

这就是我们所处的技术时代的现实。

That's just the reality of of the the technology age that we're in.

这是一件好事。

And that's a good thing.

我认为我们正在积极拥抱人工智能和其他类型的软件工具，以确保能发现那些在人工系统中可能被忽略的问题。

I I think we're really embracing AI and other types of software tools to make sure that we're catching things that otherwise might have been overlooked in a manual system.

所以，在你几周前发布的那个推特视频中，你明确将预测市场划归为商品期货交易委员会的管辖范围。

So in this, Twitter video that you posted a couple weeks ago, you planted a flag on prediction markets as just firmly part of CFTC territory.

你说你提交了一份法庭之友简报，以维护商品期货交易委员会对预测市场的管辖权。

You said that you filed a friend of the court brief to defend the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets.

什么是法庭之友简报？为什么认为预测市场属于商品期货交易委员会的管辖范围？

What's a friend of the court brief, and what's the argument that prediction markets are under the CFTC jurisdiction?

在这类诉讼中，我们看到某些州对我们的注册机构提起诉讼，比如像Call Sheet、Crypto.com或Polymarket这样的交易所。

In these litigations, we're seeing certain states bringing lawsuits against our registrants, so exchanges like a call sheet or a a crypto.com or a Polymarket.

这种情况在全国各地都有发生。

And this has happened throughout the country.

我们已经看到了超过50起此类诉讼，而且每天都有新的诉讼被提起。

We've we've seen over 50 of these lawsuits, and there's more filed each day.

商品期货交易委员会并不是这些诉讼的当事人。

And the CFTC is not a party to those lawsuits.

我们没有被起诉。

We've not been sued.

我们也没有起诉任何州，但我们能够在诉讼中提交简报，表达我们的观点，并支持我们认为法院最终应作出的裁决。

We've not sued any states, but we are able to file a brief in the litigation to assert our viewpoints and and help support where we think the the ultimate conclusion should be with respect to the court's decision.

在这种情况下，正如您提到的，我们提交了一份法庭之友简报，也称为amicus简报，阐述了我们的论点和理由，说明为什么我们认为这些产品明确属于商品期货交易委员会的管辖范围。

In this case, we filed, as a as you mentioned, a Friends of the Court's brief, also known as an amicus brief, and we lay out our argument and our reasoning as to why we believe that these products are firmly within the jurisdiction of the CFTC.

那么，这种主张是否涉及任何关于赌博或商品期货交易委员会依据其法律有权禁止的其他行为的论证呢？

Now what does that asserted any sort of argumentation around what's gaming or what would potentially be something that the CFTC actually has authority to prohibit under its statute?

《商品交易法》赋予我们管辖权，前提是衍生品合约在赌博上进行交易，而‘赌博’一词在法律中并未定义。

So the the Commodity Exchange Act gives us authority to the extent a derivative contract is offered on gaming, which is undefined in the statute.

一些诉讼正在质疑体育赛事和其他类型的技能游戏是否也应被视为该法案下的‘博彩’类型。

And some of the litigations are questioning whether sports events and other types of games of skill would also be considered a a type of gaming, under the statute.

我们对此没有发表评论。

We've not commented on that.

我们只是就我们法案中一个明确且明确的原则发表意见：只要存在衍生品合约并面向零售客户，在我们注册的交易所上进行交易，就属于我们的监管范围。

We're simply commenting on a very clear and and black letter principle that's in our statute to the extent that you have a derivative contract and it's offered to retail, it is offered on an exchange that's registered with us.

这属于我们的监管权限。

That's within our regulatory authority.

我们从不进入赌场或印第安人旅游预订场所去执法博彩或赌场等事务。

We we never go into casinos or Indian travel reservations to to go police gaming or casinos or anything like that.

但我们确实监管衍生品合约。

But we do regulate derivatives contracts.

当你涉及体育赛事结果、政治事件或其他任何衍生品时，这属于我们在联邦监管框架下监管的范畴。

And when you have a derivative on a sports outcome, on a political event, or anything else, that's something that we regulate under a federal regulatory framework.

我们在这一点上不与各州或其他任何方共享管辖权。

We do not share jurisdiction with the states there or anybody else.

很多州

A lot of the

必须明确这一点

Gotta make that

不过，迈克，很多州的反对似乎都围绕着对‘赌博’的定义。

A lot of the states pushback though though, Mike, does seem to hinge on this definition of of gaming.

对吧？

Right?

我认为其中一些州认为体育博彩本质上就是赌博。

And I I think some of that is they're saying that sports betting is essentially gaming.

如果你们说这个定义有些模糊，那这个‘赌博’术语究竟该如何解决？

How does that that gaming term actually get resolved if you're saying that the definition is somewhat unclear?

那么，如何才能实现清晰化呢？

What's what's the path to clarity there?

我们的法律设定方式是，如果你有一个衍生工具或事件合约，并且它属于列出的特定事项之一。

The way that our statute's set up is effectively if you have a derivative instrument, an event contract, and it is on an enumerated list of things.

它可能是战争、恐怖主义、暗杀和博彩。

It could be war, terrorism, assassination, and gaming.

还有违反联邦和州法律的非法行为。

There's also illegal acts under federal and state law.

这属于商品期货交易委员会的管辖范围，委员会有权决定，如果某事项不符合公共利益，我们就不会允许。

That comes to the CFTC, and the CFTC has the authority to say that if that is not in the public interest, we do not allow it.

如果允许这些合约符合公共利益，我们就可以批准这些合约，并为这些合约的上市设定某些规则和要求。

If it's in the public interest to allow it, we can allow those contracts, and we can set up certain rules and requirements for the listing of those contracts.

我们在这方面拥有管辖权，而这正是我们所要评论的全部内容。

We have authority there, and that's all that we're commenting on.

因此，无论某事是否属于博彩，我们将参考法院的判决，看法院如何界定博彩的范围，然后调整我们的监管规定，以确保这些规定对这些市场而言是合理的。

So whether something's gaming or not, and we'll look to the courts and see where the courts come out as to what's gaming and what's not, and we can adjust our regulations to make sure that they make sense for these markets.

但我们在本案中的主张其实仅限于第一个问题——管辖权，而不是什么是或不是博彩。

But our assertion in in this case really has just been on that first issue of jurisdiction, not on what is or what not.

如何定义公共利益？

Define what's in the public interest?

这在一定程度上是主观的吗？

Is that somewhat subjective?

你们CFTC那里有明确的定义吗？

Do you have a a working definition there at the CFTC?

这是我们通过法规来定义的。

That's something that we define through regulation.

因此，我们可以制定一些标准，来界定什么是符合公众利益，什么不是。

So we can lay out certain standards as to what's in the public interest and what's not.

目前，我们从上届政府那里撤回的规则提案实际上规定，如果某事物涉及政治或体育，就不符合公众利益。我认为我们需要做得更好，在CFTC建立真正明确的标准。

Currently, the the rule proposal that we have pulled from the prior administration effectively said if something's political or if something's, you know, relates to sports, it's not in the public interest, I think we need to do a better job and have real standards here at the CFTC.

那么，在预测市场中，如何定义‘内部人士’呢？

What about this definition of an insider when it comes to prediction markets?

因为这似乎取决于具体的市场，有点难以界定。

Because this is this seems like kind of tricky based on the particular market.

比如，内部人士和那些只是拥有信息流、并能清晰表达出来的人，区别到底在哪里？

Like, what's what's the the the difference between an insider and just somebody who has, I don't know, in informational data flow that they can express in a in a clear way?

他们拥有一些信息优势，而这正是我们希望在市场中看到的表达方式。

They have some sort of information advantage, and that's sort of what we want to see expressed in markets anyway.

那么，你在监管预测市场时，如何看待这个问题呢？

So how how do you think about this issue when it comes to regulating prediction markets?

市场是有效的。

Markets are efficient.

我们当然希望后一种情况，即个人凭借真正的优势进行交易并洞察市场，这些洞察会反映在我们所看到的不同事件结果的数据中。

We certainly want the latter type where you have individuals that are trading on real edge and and figuring things out in the markets, and that comes out into the the data that we see around the outcomes of different events.

但前一种情况是，内部人士对雇主或其他人负有保密义务，却利用了这种义务。

But the former where you have insiders who have a duty of confidence to an employer or somebody else, and they take that.

他们擅自使用从工作或与他人关系中获得的信息，进行内幕交易。

They misappropriate information that they've obtained from their their job or from whatever sort of relationship they have with someone that they owe a duty to, and they use that to insider trade.

根据我们的法律，我们禁止这种行为。

We prohibit that under our statute.

证券交易委员会在证券市场中也采取同样的做法。

The SEC does the same when it comes to securities markets.

在商品市场中，历史上通常不存在这类关系。

Now with commodities markets, historically, you don't have these types of, relationships commonly.

有时你会遇到经纪人，他们对客户负有义务，并在商品市场中抢先于客户进行交易。

You have it sometimes with a broker where you have a duty to your clients and you trade ahead of your clients in a commodity market.

当然，我们还曾采取过许多执法行动，指控过内幕交易，但现在在信息市场、预测市场中，出现了像我之前提到的MrBeast的例子：一名员工利用其与MrBeast的雇佣关系所获得的内部信息进行交易。

There's other contexts of course we've had many enforcement actions where we've brought claims of insider trading, but now with information markets, with prediction markets, you have scenarios like the MrBeast example I gave earlier where you have an employee that trades based on inside information they've obtained from their relationship with MrBeast, you know, with their employment.

这就是内幕交易。

And that is insider trading.

我们会对此进行监管。

We police that.

在体育联盟和其他类似场景中，我们也会看到同样的情况，比如你可以想象，球场上的健力宝搅拌机人员知道即将倒入冷却箱的健力宝是什么颜色。

And we're gonna see the same in in sports leagues and and in other contexts where you could imagine a world where you have the Gatorade, you know, mixer on the the field, and he knows exactly what color Gatorade's going into the cooler.

因此，他能够利用这一信息提前交易，我们必须确保对这类行为进行监管。

And so he has a an ability to to use that information to trade ahead, and and we've gotta make sure that we police that sort of thing.

因此，内幕交易是我们明确禁止和限制的行为，我们将继续监管这些市场。

So insider trading is very much something we prohibit and that we restrict, and we will continue to police those markets.

在商品或合约背景下，内幕交易的界定是否有明确清晰的界限？

Is there a clear bright line as to what insider trading is in the commodities or you know, contracts context?

据我理解，在股票市场方面，这一点非常明确。

I I as I understand it on the equities side of things, it's very, very clear.

在股票市场中，判断谁是内部人士、什么是内幕交易，比在商品市场中要容易得多。

It's much easier to tell who's an insider, what's insider trading in the equities context than it is in the commodities side.

那么，历史上内幕交易是否一直有明确的界限？还是需要进一步制定规则或提供指引，以明确在事件合约中谁属于内部人士、什么是事件合约中的内幕交易？

So is it as clear as there has been like a bright line with insider trading historically, or will there need to be like, further rule making or guidance about what is an insider in event contracts and what's insider trading in event contracts context?

我们希望保持透明，因此始终需要更多的指导和信息提供。

We like to be transparent, so we always have a need for more guidance and and providing more information.

这就是为什么我也会上像这样的播客。

That's why I come on podcasts like this as well.

但法律本身是非常明确的。

But the law is pretty cut cut and dry.

我们拥有与证券交易委员会相同的权力。

So we have the same authority that the SEC does.

关于滥用信息理论，当您对雇主或其他人负有义务，却违反保密义务擅自利用雇主的信息进行交易时，这在我们的权限范围内属于内幕交易，并且已经经过法院审理。

And when it comes to this misappropriation theory where you have a duty to your employer or someone else and you misappropriate information from your employer in breach of a duty of confidence and you trade on that, that is insider trading under our authority, and that's been litigated in the court.

还有一种适用于证券的传统内幕交易理论，但这一理论在此情境下并不适用，因此我就不展开说了。

There's also a classical theory of insider trading that applies to securities that is is not really applicable in this context, so I won't get into it.

但我们真正关注的是滥用信息理论，正如我所说，这一点非常明确。

But it's this misappropriation theory that we're really looking at, and it is pretty cut and dry as I said.

好的。

Okay.

在预测市场监管方面，各州与商品期货交易委员会之间存在一个变量，那就是特朗普家族在预测市场中的利益冲突。

There's this one variable with regards to states versus the CFTC when it comes to the regulation of prediction market, and that's the conflict of interest that the Trump family has in prediction markets.

埃里克·特朗普既是Polymarket和Call Sheet的顾问。

Eric Trump is both an advisor to Polymarket and Call Sheet.

我认为他也是Polymarket的投资者。

I think he's also an investor in Polymarket as well.

而且，站在州政府一方的人指出，您是特朗普任命的CFTC主席。

And it it just and the people who are taking the state side of this fight are pointing to how, like, you are a Trump appointed CFTC chair.

特朗普家族的这种利益冲突是否让您的工作更加困难？

Is that, is this conflict of interest from the Trump family making your job harder?

这如何影响您的工作？

How is that, how is this impacting your job?

我受制于一份非常详尽、非党派的政府道德办公室协议，我对此非常重视。

I'm subject to a very detailed, nonpartisan office of government ethics agreement that I take very seriously.

我遵守法律。

I adhere to the law.

我不对任何人区别对待。

I don't get into treating anybody differently from anybody else.

我相信，本政府内的每个人都秉持相同的标准，我们只是在努力为美国人民做最好的事情。

And and I believe that everyone within this administration holds themselves to the same standard, and and we're just trying to do the best thing for the American people.

历史上，我们在加密货币领域面临的一个挑战是加密资产的定义问题。

One one challenge we've had in crypto historically with the CFTC and the SEC has been the definition of crypto assets.

我的意思是，整个法案都涉及这个问题。

Like, I mean, there's the whole act.

它被称为《清晰法案》。

It's called the Clarity Act.

这是一项目前正在国会审议的市场结构法案。

It's a markers market structures bill in Congress right now.

该法案的目的是明确界定什么是商品，什么是证券。

And the purpose of that act is to actually define with some clarity what is a commodity and what is a security.

自从我进入加密领域以来，一直面临一个挑战：我们的监管机构未能以清晰的方式定义这些术语，让加密行业能够切实遵守法律。

Ever since I've been in crypto, there's been like this challenge to have our regulators clearly define these terms for us in ways that people in the crypto industry can actually abide by the law.

你能谈谈你们在这方面的努力吗？

Can you talk about your efforts there?

我知道你参与了《加密项目》。

I know you've been part of Project Crypto.

你曾是证交会那个特别工作组的成员。

You were part of that task force on the SEC.

能不能谈谈这个？

Maybe talk about that.

这与清晰法案有何相似之处和不同之处？作为监管机构，你们正在采取哪些措施来提供明确性？

How is how is that similar versus different to the Clarity Act, and and what are you doing as a regulator to help provide some clarity there?

正如你们多年来所报道的，关于豪威测试及其在加密货币中的应用一直存在争议。

As you all have covered over the years, there's been the the debate over the Howey Test and its application to crypto.

在某些情况下，当你出售数字资产并向购买者做出某些承诺和保证，且目的是为融资，而你的网络或产品尚未建成时，你会告诉他们：嘿。

There's contexts where you sell a digital asset and you make certain promises and commitments to people that are buying it and you're you're selling it for capital raising purposes, and maybe you've not built out your network yet or your your product, and you're telling them, hey.

这是一份白皮书。

Here's a white paper.

这就是我们计划要做的。

This is what we plan to do.

因此，他们投资于这个企业，但随后会获得一个数字资产作为回报，或者在未来某个时间点交付。

And so they invest in in that enterprise, but then they get a digital asset as a result or maybe down the line that's delivered.

数字资产本身，如果它不赋予你对公司一定的权益或类似债务的特征，那么它显然不属于证券。

Digital asset itself, it's pretty clear that that's not a type of security unless it gives you certain interest in a a company or or certain debt like characteristics.

但这种投资本身，即最初的融资交易，根据豪威分析，可能构成证券发行交易。

But the investment itself, that initial capital raising transaction, that might be a securities transaction under the Howey analysis.

在法律中明确这些事项至关重要，或许应该摆脱何伊测试的框架，或至少采纳其部分要素，并建立清晰的规则。

It's really important to clarify these things in statute and maybe move away from a Howey type structure or or embrace aspects of it, but set up clear rules of the road.

《清晰法案》在这方面是一个很好的努力，旨在明确什么是证券、什么不是证券，以及加密资产筹资的规则等。

And the the Clarity Act is a a great effort in this in this way to to really clarify what's a security, what's not, what the rules are for fundraising with crypto assets, and so on and so forth.

凭借我们现有的权力，我们可以开始奠定基础，确保这些市场不会因缺乏明确规则而外流到境外。

With our existing authorities, we can start to lay the the groundwork to make sure that these markets don't percolate offshore and and get pushed offshore without clear rules of the road.

这确实是阿特金斯主席和我的愿景，即率先确立一些初步的规则。

And that that's really been chairman Atkins and I my our vision for for for getting some initial rules of the road in place.

因此，SEC可以依赖何伊测试，但不应仅在执法中使用它。

So the the SEC can rely on the Howey Test, but but not just use it in enforcement.

它可以明确指出：以下是筹资时应遵循的清晰规则。

It can say, okay, here are some clear rules of the road for when you're fundraising.

正如阿特金斯主席所阐述的，他称之为数字商品，因此网络代币，比如以太坊、索拉纳等，不属于证券类型。

And then these types of assets as chairman Atkins has articulated, he's he said digital commodities, so can network tokens, things like ether, Solana, and so on and so forth, are not a type of security.

这些是数字商品。

These are digital commodities.

数字收藏品，比如NFT等，不属于证券。

Digital collectibles, things like NFTs and and so on, are not securities.

也许它们也不是商品，因为它们可能是非同质化的，但这些肯定不是证券。

Maybe they're not commodities either because they're non fungible potentially, but these things certainly aren't securities.

数字工具，比如你在区块链上使用的接收收据代币之类的东西，这些也不是证券。

And digital tools, things that you're using just on a blockchain like you receive a receipt token or that sort of thing, these are also not securities.

它们是一种你用于网络的商品或工具。

They're a type of of good or or a tool that you're using with a network.

因此，在没有立法的情况下建立这些护栏是有帮助的，这样市场就能在美国发展和演进，人们也不会担心自己购买的东西会受到证券法的约束。

So getting those guardrails in place without legislation is helpful so that the markets can evolve and and develop here in The US and people aren't afraid that they're acquiring something that's subject to the securities laws.

话虽如此，一部法律确实能使其具有前瞻性，并确保其被明确写入法典，防止下一位加里·根斯勒上台后彻底推翻它。

That said, a statute can really future proof it and make sure that it's codified in stone, and the next Gary Gensler doesn't come in and totally tear it apart.

因此，完成这项工作非常重要。

So so it's very important to get this done.

大卫·萨克斯和总统在推动这一努力方面发挥了巨大作用，我很高兴能支持这一行动。

And and David Sachs and the president have been really tremendous in in pushing this effort, and I'm glad to support that.

所以我们希望《清晰法案》能够通过。

So we're we're hopeful that the Clarity Act goes through.

我认为，说到预测市场，在Polymarket上，今年《清晰法案》通过的概率大约有70%左右。

I think, actually, speaking of prediction markets, on on Polymarket, there's like a 70% chance or something like that that the Clarity Act passes this year.

但你是说，迈克，即使没有这项法案，你和证交会也能制定明确的规则，向加密行业清晰地说明哪些资产属于商品、哪些属于证券，从而通过规则制定模拟《清晰法案》的大部分内容吗？

But are you saying, Mike, even in the absence of that, that between you and the SEC, you're able to give clear rule making and issue clear rule making to the crypto industry to provide clarity as to, like, what assets are commodities and which are securities and essentially simulating much of the Clarity Act just by way of rulemaking.

你们今年计划这样做吗？

Is that something that you plan to do this year?

这会在什么时候发生？

And when when will that happen?

作为监管机构，我们当然可以解释，比如《豪威测试》，并说明我们机构对此的看法，但这并不意味着它会取代现有的判例法。

As regulators, we certainly can interpret, for example, the Howey test and and lay out the way that we're thinking about that as an agency, but that does not mean that it's it's going to supplant the the case law itself.

如果你回顾多年来对一些大型交易所提起的诉讼，这些案件都是在联邦法院审理的，当时就曾就豪威测试对某些数字资产的适用性展开过争论。

So if you think about the litigation against some of the big exchanges over the years was brought in federal courts, and there were these debates over what does Howie mean for certain digital assets.

我们无法仅通过规则制定来推翻这些判例。

We can't necessarily override that through our rulemaking.

法律怎么说，就怎么算。

The statute says what the statute says.

法律中使用了‘投资合同’这个术语，有人可以根据最高法院的判例主张某个代币属于投资合同。

It has this term investment contract, and someone can argue based on the Supreme Court case law that a token is an investment contract.

如果我们能获得明确的法律规定，就可以将这种模糊的豪威定义固定下来，明确指出这些资产不属于证券。

The statute itself, if we if we get clarity in place, that can actually set in stone overriding this nebulous Howie definition and say these things are not securities.

这些资产属于证券。

These things are securities.

不过，作为监管者，我们当然可以提供明确性指引。

That said, as as a regulator, of course, we can offer clarity.

法院可能会认为这种指引具有说服力，且很有帮助。

Courts may find that persuasive, and it's helpful.

但我确实认为，有必要制定一部法律，真正为未来做好准备，因为阿特金斯主席和我可能会做出正确的决定。

But I but I do think there's a real need to get a statute in place that really future proofs this because chairman Atkins and I might do the right thing.

但如果加里·根斯勒重新上任，加密货币领域将迎来完全不同的局面。

But if Gary Gensler's back in action, we're gonna see a whole different world for crypto.