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无银行国家是十月低迷的第二周。
Bankless nation is the second week of Downtober.
每周总结。
The weekly roll up.
人工智能正在打破数学。
AI is breaking math.
它也会打破加密货币吗？
Will it break crypto as well?
我们已经进入十月两周了，根据贾斯汀的说法，区块链正在崩溃。
We're two weeks into October, and blockchains are breaking according to Justin
但德雷克还没事。
Not Drake yet.
是谁在呼吁大规模将资金转移到更安全的钱包，同时告诉大家不要恐慌？
Who is calling for a mass migration of funds to more secure wallets and also tells everyone, don't panic.
加密货币也许没有我们曾经想象的那么安全。
Crypto perhaps may be less safe than we once thought.
这都是AI的错。
It's all AI's fault.
如果你想知道发生了什么，那就是AI，而且大家都很恐慌。
If if you're wondering what's going on, it's AI, and people are panicking.
天哪。
Oh my god.
那条推文确实够劲爆的。
That was a doozy of a tweet for sure.
顺便说一句，大卫正在新加坡直播。
David is live in Singapore, by the way.
我们应该——对，没错。
We should That's right.
就这么说。
Say that.
所以在……的结尾。
So at the end of the...
今天的节目，我们要聊聊Token2049，以及David在那里看到了什么。
Today's episode, we're gonna talk about Token2049 and what David saw there.
他有没有看到加密技术的终结？
Did he see the end of cryptography?
那是……
That's...
没有。
No.
那可不是讨论的话题。
That was not a topic of discussion.
好吧，我本来想问你是不是见到了Tom Lee。
Well, I was gonna ask you if you saw Tom Lee.
他在Token2049上做了一个演讲。
He gave a session at Token2049.
有个消息是，他收完那5%之后就不打算再买ETH了。
Some news from that is he's gonna stop buying ETH after he collects his 5%.
他快到了。
He's almost there.
那是硬顶。
That's the hard cap.
那是个悬而未决的问题。
That was a question outstanding.
他这周回答了。
He answered it on the week.
我们来聊聊这意味着什么。
We'll talk about what that means.
另外，两个以太坊二层网络，彻底完蛋了，比死还死，就是Abstract和Blast，可能下一个就是Starknet。
Also, two Ethereum L2s, six feet under, they are deader than dead, Abstract and Blast, and maybe Starknet next.
我们来聊聊
Let's talk about
这个。
that too.
Stark...
Stark...
Starknet没有死，但问题是他们会不会因为量子计算的担忧而离开以太坊一层。
Starknet is not dying, but there is a question about whether they will move off of the Ethereum layer one due to the quantum concerns.
这一切都归结到
It all kinda comes
量子问题，真的是这个原因吗？
back Is that really why?
对，量子问题。
To quantum.
我还以为是因为代币价格呢。
I thought it was for Token Price.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
不是。
No.
我开玩笑的。
I'm joking.
那确实是原因。
That that was why.
Starknet 已经具备量子抗性了，所以他们觉得，好吧。
It's like the Starknet is already quantum resistant, and so they're like, okay.
但我们的底层没有，Justin Drake 说赶紧撤，去安全的地方。
Well, our base layer's not, and Justin Drake is saying get off, like, go move to safety.
所以 Starknet 就说，好吧。
And so Starknet's like, okay.
我们就采纳 Justin Drake 的……
We'll take Justin Drake's...
Justin Drake 的建议，他们会变成一层网络。
Justin Drake's advice will become a layer one.
好了，我们来看看市场吧。
Anyways, let's get into the markets.
十月还没到呢。
October is not a thing yet.
我们现在还在“十月跌”里，没错。
We are still in Downtober Sure.
至少前八天是这样。
For the first eight days.
比特币这周跌了大约3%，现在在82,300美元。
Bitcoin down about 3% on the week to $82,300.
以太坊这周跌了6%，现在在2,500美元。
ETH down 6% on the week to $2,500.
然后山寨币呢……
And then the altcoins are...
之前涨得猛的，现在也跌得厉害。
The ones that were up bigly are down bigly as well.
山寨币的抛售还在继续。
Altcoin flush does continue.
我记得你提到过Zcash跌了大概13%。
I think you noted Zcash down about 13%.
Venice跌了17%。
Venice down 17%.
Athena也跌了17%。
Athena down 17%.
所以八九月赚的那些利润，现在都吐出来了吧？
So coughing up some of those gains from August and September, aren't we?
我记得上周我们聊过，说它们已经……
I I believe last week we talked about how they're...
那时候跌幅都已经两位数了，我当时还说，如果情况只是这样的话，那其实挺轻松的。
They were already down in the double digits, and I I said something along the lines of if this was all that it was, then it's pretty easy.
看来咱们算是逃过一劫。
We're getting off pretty easy.
谢谢你这么说。
Thanks for saying that.
其实情况并不只是那样。
It was it was not all that it was.
我觉得真正的情况是，如果我们能直接拿上周那段，Ryan，关于收益率上升和油价上涨的内容，直接复制粘贴就行。
I think what's really going on is if we could just take last week's section, Ryan, about yields are up and oil is up, we could just copy paste.
直接粘到这一周。
Paste into this week.
只不过现在更糟，因为已经连续六周都是高国债收益率和高油价了。
Except it's kind of worse when it's like six weeks in a row now of like high treasury yields and high oil prices.
我们上周也说了同样的话，国债收益率创下自二十...以来的最高水平。
We said this exact same line last week, highest treasury prices since twenty...
2002年。
Two thousand and two.
十年期收益率达到了5.3%。
The ten year hit 5.3%.
三十年期的收益率已经到了5.7%。
The thirty year is at 5.7%.
当你只是注意到市场，比如收益率在上升的时候，那是一回事。
You know, it's one thing when you're just, like, noticing the market, like, and the yields are going up.
就像，哇。
Like, oh, wow.
收益率在上升。
Yields are going up.
这次不一样了。
This is different.
这次开始有点不一样了。
This is starting to be a little different.
我觉得市场，不管是加密货币还是传统市场，都开始有点紧张了，因为就像，好吧，这太快了。
I think the market, both crypto and the trad market is getting kind of jittery just because like, okay, that's too fast.
这太快了。
That's too fast.
这确实挺
It is pretty I
我觉得另一个受影响的地方是，如果你想申请房贷的话。
think another place this comes in is if you're trying to get a mortgage.
所以如果你最近一直在尝试申请房贷，但我没有。
So if you've been trying to get a mortgage lately, but I have not.
过去十到十五年里，我每次申请房贷时，利率都在百分之三、四左右，是的。
Anytime I've tried to get a mortgage over the past ten to fifteen years, I mean, rates have been, you know, three, 4%, something Yeah.
对，没错。
Like Yeah.
很划算。
Favorable.
现在你想锁定一笔三十年期固定利率房贷，在美国，利率是7.5%。
Now you're trying to lock in a mortgage, a thirty year fixed in The US, 7.5%.
这些都是由国债利率决定的。
All downstream of treasuries.
我觉得短期内房地产市场会有些波动，不只是小打小闹。
I feel like the housing market is gonna feel some more than jitters in the short term.
八十年代的时候，我们的房贷利率都到了两位数。
I mean, in the nineteen eighties, we got into the double digit territory for a mortgage.
你能想象锁定一个30年期、利率11%或12%的房贷吗？
Can you imagine locking in a mortgage at like 11, 12% a thirty year?
那你得真的非常想买房才行。
You have to be really into buying a house.
现在为什么要买呢？你完全可以等一等。
Why would you buy right now when you Well, could just
这可能是对收益率比较乐观的看法，也是你希望看到的观点。
that's kind of the maybe the bullish take on the yields, and it was a take that you like to see.
我觉得你把这个放进议程也是因为这个原因——如果你持有国债，比如说你是个大机构投资者，你持有国债，你实际上是以现金形式获得那个收益的。
I think you included in the agenda because of that reason, which is if you own treasuries, so let's say you're a whale, you're an institutional investor, you have treasuries, you're actually receiving that yield in the form of cash.
当然，你还要为此交税。
You have to pay tax on it, of course.
但关键点在这里。
But here's the take.
更高的利率实际上向经济中注入了更多资金。
Higher rates inject more money into the economy.
这些资金会流入股市，而被动管理的影响会推高估值。
That money gets allocated to equities, and the effects of passive management drive valuations higher.
所以所有这些收益都转化成了现金。
So all of those yields converts to cash.
投资者拿到这些现金后，又直接投回股市。
Investors take that cash, and they plug it right back into equities.
也许这就是标普和纳斯达克创历史新高的部分原因。
And maybe that's part of the reason we have S and P, NASDAQ, all time high.
至少这是一种解释。
At least that's one ex explanation of it.
我不太确定我完全相信这个说法。
I'm not sure that I totally buy it.
另一个我总想到的事情是，当收益率上升时，就像整个比特币……
The the other thing that I always kinda just think of it when yields go up is, like, the whole Bitcoin...
比特币的基本论点就是政府还不起债。
The basic Bitcoin thesis of the government can't pay its debt.
当收益率是5.5%，而我们以前习惯的是1%或2%时，这个论点成真的速度会快五倍。
When yields are at 5.5% versus what we were used to at, like, one or 2%, that becomes true five times faster.
所以如果它……
So if it...
就像……
Like, this...
政府必须偿还的债务，导致印钞，进而产生流动性，这简直是……
The debt that the government has to pay, creates money printing, which creates liquidity, is just...
在加速。
Is accelerating.
虽然历史上高收益率环境对比特币并不有利，但无论如何，这最终都在加速整个货币贬值交易。
Now a high yield environment historically has not favored Bitcoin, but nonetheless, like, this this is ultimately accelerating the whole debasement trade.
从历史上看，高收益率环境对股市也不利。
I mean, historically, it hasn't favored stocks either.
但是，我们现在……
Yet, we're...
收益率在上升，而股市却创了历史新高。
Yields are going higher and stocks are at all time high.
所以我们可能正处于一个……
So we might be just in a...
我们上周聊过这个，但我们已经长期处于低收益率时代，就是那个“零利率”时代之类的。
I mean, we talked about this last week, but we've been in kind of the low yields regime for a long time, the Zurp era, that sort of thing.
我们可能正在过渡到一个全新的时代。
We might be transitioning to a totally new regime.
油价这周也突破了100美元。
Oil also broke a 100 on the week.
为什么？
Why?
因为没有什么新体制。
Because of no new regime.
你觉得我刚才那话怎么样？
You like what I did there?
当然。
Sure.
好的。
Okay.
为什么？
Why?
霍尔木兹海峡有石油在流动，所以关于实际石油流量的数据看起来霍尔木兹海峡是开放的，但我认为这只是石油的保险成本真的非常高。
There is oil flowing through the Strait Of Hormuz, so the the the the data about the actual oil flow is like the Hormuz is seemingly open, but I think it's just insurance costs of the oil is really, really high.
所以即使石油在流动，保险费用依然很贵，因为伊朗仍然在试图袭击油轮，一边走一边打。
So even though oil is flowing, is still expensive to insure it because Iran is still taking its attempt to strike at takers as as it as it goes.
所以即使在冲突最激烈的时候，油价超过100美元的天数也只有那么多，而现在我们又回到了每桶100美元以上……
And so even during the actual height of the conflict, there was only so many days when oil was above 100, and we are once again above $100 an oil...
一桶油的价格。
For a barrel of oil.
所以宏观层面有一些逆风，比如收益率可能上升。
So we've got some headwinds in macro in the form of possible yields.
现在的环境挺艰难的。
It's a tough environment.
现在的环境确实不容易。
It's a tough environment.
在
At
与此同时，比特币还没有投降。
the same time, Bitcoin is not yet capitulated.
你说过我们只跌了3%，即使在这种情况下
I mean, you said we're only down 3% even with these having
目前正处于牛市中途的清洗阶段。
a mid bull market flush right now.
没错。
That's right.
ETF这周跌了。
ETFs down on
这周。
the week.
我那天亏了不少。
I mean, I had a pretty red day.
是比特币ETF自10月以来最惨的一天。
You know, the most red day in Bitcoin ETF since October.
但另一方面，Robinhood把2500万美元的比特币加进了他们的资产负债表，这是他们首次为加密金库购入比特币。
But on the other hand, Robinhood added 25,000,000 worth of Bitcoin to their balance sheet, their first purchase ever for a crypto treasury.
他们给出的理由是，要让公司和愿景与加密社区保持一致。
The reason they said was to align our company and vision with the crypto community.
所以相对于1亿美元市值来说，这笔钱不算多，但象征意义很大，对吧？
So there's not a lot of money against a $100,000,000 market cap, but it is symbolic, right?
这就像，如果你和我们在一起，你就拥有我们的一些资产。
It's like you're if you're with us, you own some of our bags.
我主持了一个小组讨论，请来了约翰，就是这页上这位，还有约瑟夫·鲁宾一起上台。
I hosted a panel with Johan, the man featured on the page right here, and also with Joseph Lubin on stage.
我问约翰，他什么时候会把2500万美元的以太坊加到他的资产负债表上。
And I asked Johan when he would be allocating $25,000,000 of ETH to his balance sheet.
他有点跟我打太极。
He kind of filibustered me.
所以你没得到肯定的答复，
So you didn't get a yes from that,
我不知道。
I didn't know.
他没有……
He did not...
我没有得到他们打算这么做的确认。
I did not get confirmation that they would be doing that.
那么，根据Mike的说法，有一些关键价位值得关注……
Well, some key levels to watch according to Mike want...
Michael Nato在……
Michael Nato on...
他其实对比特币的结构性走势相当看好。
He he actually is pretty bullish Bitcoin structurally.
他认为比特币价格不会跌破78000美元。
He doesn't think we go under 78 k Bitcoin price.
除非跌到六万多，否则他并不担心。
And he's not worried until we drop into the sixties.
当然，如果跌破66000，那就完了。
Of Of course, if we drop below 66, it's donezo.
已经有点晚了。
It's already a little late.
就像，哦，好吧。
Like, oh, okay.
就是……
It's...
如果跌破66000，我就在82000卖掉。
If it drops below 66,000, I'll sell it 82,000.
不对。
No.
不是这样运作的。
It doesn't doesn't work like that.
他还认为，如果比特币价格突破90，进入90多，那看起来就非常清晰，能一路涨到10万。
And he does think a key on the upside trigger point is if we get past 90 into the nineties for Bitcoin price, it's looking pretty clear to get all the way to a 100 k.
所以那可能会引发一波投机热潮。
So that could kick off a wave of speculation.
也许10月份会有一次抛售。
Maybe there's a sale for October.
他对Zcash怎么看？
What's he say about Zcash?
他有没有提到Zcash？
Did he say anything about Zcash?
他看好Zcash。
He's bullish, Zcash.
他给你设了目标价，Zcash。
He's got prime targets for you, Zcash.
我稍微透露一下我从20...
I I will give a little bit of a teaser of my takeaways from the 20...
Token2049。
Token2049.
得到的收获。我看好Zcash。
I am bullish, Zcash.
即使
Even in
面对会破解密码学的AI，David，Zcash可能会和其他所有东西一样归零。
the face of AI that's gonna break cryptography, David, Zcash might be going to zero along with everything else.
没错。
Exactly.
其实主要是隐私问题，但也正因为如此，AI这家伙，
Well, beyond mostly privacy, but also exactly because of that because AI Dude,
如果……
if in...
如果AI破解了我们的密码学数学原理，那隐私就彻底完蛋了，兄弟。
If if AI breaks our cryptography math, privacy is donezo, man.
已经没了。
It's gone.
我们以后就没有隐私了。
We won't have privacy anymore.
不是的。
No.
Zcash其实早就……它已经
Zcash has already got like, it's already
正在恢复。
working back up.
但面对AI超级智能破解数学，它并不安全。
But not secure against AI super intelligence breaking math.
至少我是这么理解的。
At least that's what I understand.
我们稍后再谈这个。
We'll get to that later.
好吗？
Okay?
我们现在先乐观一点。
Let's be bullish right now.
先乐观一点。
Let's be bullish.
我正试着乐观呢。
I I'm trying to be bullish.
你让我……
You're making me...
你是想让我不乐观。
You're trying to make me not bullish.
我很乐观。
I'm bullish.
我们来聊一个一直悬而未决的问题。
Let's talk about a question that's been outstanding.
我知道最早或最近在去年八月，你请了Tom Lee上Bankless节目。
I know as early as or as recently as last August, you had Tom Lee on Bankless.
我觉得你问过他这个问题。
And I think you asked him this question.
你问他，嘿，Tom。
You asked him, hey, Tom.
你几乎拥有所有Eats供应量的5%。
You almost have 5% of all Eats supply.
这就是你说过你会做的。
It's what you said you would do.
你还会买更多吗？
Are you gonna buy more?
他八月份是怎么说的？
What did he say back in August?
当你达到5%的时候，你会怎么做？
What what will you do when you hit 5%?
他基本上没有给我一个明确的答案。
And he basically didn't give me a clear answer.
他说，我们会在2027年考虑这件事。
He's like, we will consider it in 2027.
我们会在达到那个目标的过程中放慢脚步。
We're going to slow down on our way there.
但他并没有完全排除达到5%的可能性。
But he did not close the door on 5%.
他 basically 留了个口子，没把话说死。
He kinda left the option open for him.
我觉得他动作比预期快，看起来他已经拍板了。
Well, I think he's a bit ahead of schedule because it seems like he's decided.
这是他在 Token 2049 大会舞台上说的，回答了那个问题：比特币会不会持有超过 5% 的 ETH 供应量？
This is what he said at Token 2049 on stage and answer that question of, will Bitcoin acquire over 5% of all ETH supply?
咱们放段视频看看。
Let's play the clip.
现在已经是六百万了。
Currently at 6,000,000.
这花了一年多一点的时间。
That took us little over a year.
我们原本以为得花五年呢。
We thought this would take five years.
结果只用了一年多。
It took us a little over a year.
更重要的是，我们是在熊市中间完成这一切的。
More importantly, we did this all in the middle of a bear market.
对吧？
Okay?
所以我们是在没人想买ETH的时候买的。
So we bought ETH while no one wanted to buy it.
我们很乐意低价买入。
We were glad to buy it cheaply.
我们在1500的时候买了很多，但有点……
We bought a lot at 1,500, but it's in a bit...
熊市中间。
Middle of a bear market.
现在我们要停了。
And now we're gonna stop.
我们只需要再买10万ETH就能达到5%。
We only need to get another 100,000 ETH to get to 5%.
就是这样。
That's it.
他说，现在我们要停了。
He said, now we're going to stop.
我们只需要再买10万个ETH就能达到5%。
We only need to get another 100,000 ETH to get to 5%.
他们已经完成了98%，所以会提前很多完成目标。
They are 98% of the way there, so they're gonna finish that way ahead of schedule.
他说他原本以为要花五年时间。
He said he thought it would take him five years.
结果一年就搞定了。
It took him one.
他是在熊市里买下所有这些ETH的。
He purchased all this ETH in the bear market.
他对自己的仓位相当安心。
He's pretty comfy with his position.
他不会再买了。
He's not gonna buy more.
他就打算让仓位继续跑着。
He's just going to let it ride.
他还说了这个。
He also said this.
他提到……
He gave...
去年在Token大会上，他给出了一些相当疯狂的价位预测。
Last year at Token, he gave some pretty crazy price predictions.
他对这些预测又稍微加码了一点，因为他在接下来的发言中说，现在我们已经完成了建仓，准备迎接25倍的行情。
He He kind of doubled down softly on those price predictions because he continued in this talk to say, now that we're we're done stacking in front of a 25 x move.
明白吗？
Okay?
所以是25倍乘以2,500 ETH。
So 25 x times 2,500 ETH.
我觉得现在以太坊价格大概在六万五左右。
I think we're at, like, 65 k ETH price.
所以他对以太坊这个资产极度看涨的预测并没有放松，但他表示，目前他不会再通过比特币相关的工具购买以太坊了。
So he's not relaxing on his incredibly bullish price predictions for ETH of the asset, but he is saying, I am done purchasing ETH in the Bitcoin vehicle for now.
你怎么看这件事？
What's your take on this?
这有点说不通，如果你告诉我以太坊会涨到……
It it it doesn't quite square if you're if you're telling me that ETH is going to...
他说了什么？
What did he say?
比如五万亿美元的市值？
Like a $50,000 market cap?
六万五。
65 k.
六万五，但他却要停止买入。
65 k, but he's gonna stop buying it.
比如说，如果你真的相信它会涨到65000美元，而且你手头正好有6.43亿美元的现金。
Like if you do believe that it's going to the $65,000 mark and you also happen to have $643,000,000 of cash on hand.
哦，对。
Oh, yeah.
好。
Okay.
好。
Okay.
随便吧。
Whatever.
而且，他有6.43亿美元的现金，而且这是一个136亿美元的资产。
Also, he has $643,000,000 of cash on hand and it's a 20...
这是一个136亿美元的资产。
It's a $13,600,000,000 asset.
他哪来这么多现金？
Where does he get all of the cash?
我不知道他从哪儿弄来的现金。
I don't know where he gets the cash.
对吧？
Okay?
我觉得他知道现金从哪儿来。
I think I he's know where he the cash.
就是凭空出现的。
Just appears.
他手里就是有钱。
He's got cash.
我记得几周前我说过，我真的很看好比特币股票，因为他显然有钱，就是……
I remember a couple weeks ago, I was saying, like, I really like the idea of Bitcoin equity because clearly he has money just...
钱就像变魔术一样出现在他手里。
Money just appears in his hand.
他就拿去买以太坊了。
He buys ETH with it.
他已经买完ETH了。
He's done buying ETH.
他打算用这笔钱要么投资其他东西，要么回购BMNR，他是BMNR的大股东。
He's going to use it to either invest in stuff or buy back BMNR, which he is a huge shareholder of.
其实他后来回应了这个问题，因为事后有很多讨论。
Well, he actually answered that because there was a lot of discussion about this in the aftermath.
你可以想象，各种猜测满天飞。
As you can imagine, a lot of speculation.
有些人跟你想的一样，说这是交易员的获利了结。
You know, some people said what you said, which was this was a take from a trader.
我记得他删了那条推文，就是Figu Krugman。
I think he deleted the tweet, Figu Krugman.
你知道那个发推的人。
You know the tweeter.
Tom Lee长期看ETH到25万或更高，结果涨了5%就不买了，他到底在干嘛？
Tom Lee thinks ETH is going to 250 k or higher long term, decides not to buy anymore after 5%, what is he doing?
有点嘲讽的意思，就是说，如果你真的看好这些数字，你实际上会——对。
Kind of mocking that, like, if you were really bullish on these numbers, you'd actually Yeah.
继续买入。
Continue to buy.
Lex node 对此有更宏观的看法，他认为这实际上是看涨的。
Lex node had a kind of more of a galaxy brain read on this, which is this is bullish actually.
他说5%是上市公司在13D规则下的实质性门槛。
He said 5% is the materiality threshold for public companies under 13 d.
他这里说的是股票法律，如果你持有某项资产超过5%，那是一个法律界限，超过这个界限，买家就不再是一般投资者，而是变成了受监管的资产管理人，一个需要披露的观察实体。
So what he's talking about here is a law in stocks that if you if you own over 5% of an asset, that's kind of the legal line where the buyer stops being just like a general investor and becomes more of a a regulated asset manager, a disclosed watch entity.
所以这可能就是5%规则的一部分。
So that could be part of the the 5% rule.
但按照Tom Lee自己的说法，有人刚刚说了，好吧。
But in Tom Lee's own words, someone just said, okay.
他们打算用这5%做什么？
What are they gonna do with the 5%?
首先，如果你想保持5%的ETH，而且你几乎把所有的ETH都质押了，就像他们那样，那你实际上必须卖掉一些ETH。
First of all, if you wanna keep 5% ETH and you're staking almost all of it, which they are, you actually have to sell ETH.
这挺有意思的。
It's interesting.
Bitmined这个工具为了保持在5%的范围内，反而变成了净卖家。
The Bitmined vehicle becomes a net seller in order to keep within the 5% range.
不是特别大的量，但任何质押超过5%的部分，他们都得卖掉。
Not not a huge amount, but anything they stake that gets above 5%, they would have to sell.
他说，这就是Tom要用那6.071亿……
And he said, this is what Tom is going to do with that $607,100 k...
应该说是百万，资金去做的事情。
Million, I should say, in capital.
回购、扩展他们的质押基础设施，叫Maven，还有投资ETH以外的项目。
Buybacks, scaling out their staking infrastructure, it's called Maven, and then outside ETH investments.
比如像MrBeast，他们投资了Beast Industries，还有数据中心相关的项目。
So things like MrBeast, you know, they they invested in Beast Industries, data center stuff.
他们还跟WLD做了些事情，所以所有这些其他投资者。
They did something with WLD, so all of these other investors.
然后Tom Lee基本上说，对，就是这样。
And Tom Lee basically said, yeah, that's exactly it.
完全正确。
It's exactly correct.
我们要最大化股东价值，做那三件事。
We're gonna maximize shareholder value and do those three activities.
好的。
Okay.
作为投资者，我关心的就是，如果我买BMNR，我是不是就拥有他那个赚钱机器的一部分？
I I as an investor, I'm just interested in like, okay, if I buy BMNR, do I just have a share of this money printer that he clearly has?
我的分析大概就到此为止了。
That's like kind of where my analysis just stops.
那你觉得Bitmine作为投资怎么样？
Do you like do you like Bitmine as an investment then?
他干得确实挺漂亮的。
I mean, it's pretty impressive what he's pulled off.
而且……
And...
但我还是……
But I still...
投资Bitmine，本质上还是投资ETH。
The Bitmine investment is still very much the ETH investment.
我知道你有个问题。
I know you've had a question.
要不聊聊Bitmine，聊聊ETH。
Maybe talk about Bitmine, talk about ETH.
你刚才有问题想问。
You've had a question.
Tom Lee之后，下一个买ETH的人会是谁？
Who is the next buyer of Ether after Tom Lee?
汤姆·李刚刚回答了这个问题。
And Tom Lee just answered the question.
那个人不会是我。
It's not gonna be me.
不是我。
It's not me.
我已经买够了，不再买ETH了。
I'm done I'm done buying ETH.
我暂时买完了。
I'm done buying for now.
所以接下来得有人接手。
So somebody else has to take it from here.
有点像汤姆·李突然杀进了以太坊。
It's kinda like Tom Lee swooped into Ethereum.
他说，好吧，各位。
He's like, alright, guys.
我先接一会儿。
I got this for a little while.
现在他有点……
And now he's kinda...
倒不是说他要走，只是他觉得，行吧。
Not like he's leaving, but he's just like, okay.
你得从So这里接手。
You gotta take it from So
现在得有人接着我买。
somebody else comes and buys after me now.
对。
Yes.
那会是谁呢？
So who's that gonna be?
你对比特币比对ETH更乐观吗？
Are you more bullish on Bitcoin than you are ETH?
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
你怎么看
What's your take on
对比特币比以太坊更看好。
on Bitcoin than I am ETH.
我确实认为比特币BMNR会跑赢以太坊。
I do think Bitcoin BMNR will outperform ETH.
就是因为那家伙有个该死的印钞机。
Simply simply on the fact that he has a goddamn money printer.
所以我就...
And so I...
所以我也说不出更好的解释了。
And so like I don't have any better explanation for it.
而且他有...
And he has...
我觉得，就像我说的，他尊重自己的股权，不像迈克尔·塞勒，一看到MNAV的苗头就抛售股权去买回股票和比特币。
I think, like I said, I think he respects his equity in contrast to Michael Saylor who dumps his equity to buy back stretch and Bitcoin at the earliest sign of an MNAV.
所以我觉得BMNR在MNAV情况下确实会升值，因为对Bitmine来说，MNAV游戏已经结束了。
And so I think BMNR, I think, does appreciate in an MNAV because the MNAV MNAV game is over for a bit mine.
对，这就是他说的意思。
Like, that's that's what he's saying.
嗯，他在说的是
Well, he's talking about
更多关于这个。
it more.
具体来说，就是回购。
Specifically, buybacks.
他们打算怎么处理这些现金？
What are they gonna do with the cash?
回购。
Buybacks.
这对股东有好处，对Bitmine的股东有好处。
That's good for shareholders, Bitmine shareholders.
所以
So
所以BMNR的MNAV对持仓的价值可能会继续上涨，大概是这样。
so the BMNR, MNAV to a cease holdings is going up here on forward, probably.
好的。
Alright.
接下来，我们要聊聊……
Coming up next, we gotta talk about...
Justin Drake称之为“地堡模式”。
Justin Drake calls it bunker mode.
加密货币可能得进入地堡模式，因为AI在做数学运算。
Crypto might need to go bunker mode because AI is doing math.
这可能会破坏一些支撑我们区块链系统的加密基础。
It might break some of the crypto underlying our blockchain systems.
这就是本周的重头戏。
That was the story of the week.
我们得聊聊这个话题以及它带来的所有影响。
We gotta talk about that and all of the implications.
但在开始之前，我们要感谢让这期节目成为可能的赞助商们。
But before we do, we wanna thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.
我交易加密货币快十年了，用过各种各样的钱包、交易所、聚合器或者前端界面。
I've been trading crypto for almost a decade, and I've used so many different wallets, exchanges, aggregators, or front ends.
我基本上一直在找同一个东西：一个界面，能跨多条链和多种资产提供深度流动性，让我能进入永续合约这样的市场、赚取收益、保密交易，同时还能完全掌控自己的资金。
And I'm basically always looking for the same thing, just one interface with a deep liquidity across a bunch of chains and assets where I can access markets like perps, earn yield, trade confidentially, and still control all of my funds.
但我一直没真正找到，总是换来换去钱包，忙着应付燃气费，或者被滑点吃掉利润。
And I've never really found it, and I'm just always switching wallets, juggling gas fees, or getting eaten by slippage.
但near.com给我的感觉完全不一样。
But near.com feels fundamentally different to me.
我可以从任何链上做任何想做的事，而且所有活动都能保密。
I can do anything I want from any chain and keep all of my activity confidential.
加密货币、代币化资产、永续合约、支付，我甚至还能保密地赚取收益。
Crypto, tokenized assets, perps, payments, I can even earn yield confidentially.
一个账户，覆盖30多条链，默认保密。
One account over 30 chains confidential by default.
这才是加密货币该有的样子，它由NEAR驱动，NEAR已经跨链转移了超过300亿美元，使用后量子签名，主网运行五年多，零停机。
It's the way that crypto ought to work, and it's powered by NEAR, which has moved over $30,000,000,000 cross chain, uses post quantum signatures, and has run over five years on main net with zero downtime.
Near.com是在链上操作并掌控一切的最佳方式。
Near.com is the best way to be on chain and be in control.
使用节目笔记中的bankless链接在near.com上注册，可以返还你20%的交易手续费，这不是投资建议。
Get 20% of your trading fees back on near.com using the bankless link in the show notes, not investment advice.
Bankless的伙伴们，我们为你们打造了一些东西。
Bankless nation, we've built something for you.
隆重推出Bankless MCP。
Introducing the Bankless MCP.
Chat GPT和Claude在很多事情上都很擅长，但如果你问他们加密货币基础知识之外的问题，比如协议机制、代币经济学，或者上周加密货币发生了什么，他们的短板就会显现出来。
Chat GPT and Claude are great at a lot of things, but ask them anything beyond the basics of crypto about protocol mechanics, tokenomics, or just what happened last week in crypto, and the gaps will start to show.
问题在于上下文。
The problem is context.
而Bankless这边，花了将近十年的时间，建立了加密货币领域最深入的数据档案之一。
Bankless, on the other hand, has spent almost a decade building one of the deepest archives of crypto data anywhere.
超过两千份播客文字稿、一万篇文章，还有无数与真正在建设这个行业的人的对话。
More than 2,000 podcast transcripts, 10,000 articles, and countless conversations with the people actually building this industry.
现在，我们把所有这些数据整合成了Bankless MCP。
And now we've structured all of that data into the Bankless MCP.
你可以把它连接到你的Claude或ChatGPT，然后你的AI就能回答你的加密货币问题，背后有整个Bankless档案库支持。
So you can go and connect it to your Claude or ChatGBT, and suddenly your AI can answer your crypto queries with the entire Bankless archive behind it.
而且每一篇新的Bankless文章或节目都会自动添加进去，所以信息会一直保持最新。
And every new Bankless article or episode gets added automatically, so the context keeps staying up to date.
Bankless MCP只对Bankless高级订阅用户开放。
The Bankless MCP is exclusively available to Bankless premium subscribers.
你可以去bankless.com，升级到高级版，几分钟内就能连接MCP，然后你问AI的任何加密货币问题，不管用的是什么，都会好上一千倍。
So you can go to bankless.com, upgrade to premium, and connect the MCP in just a few minutes, and all of a sudden, your crypto queries to your AI LLM, whatever you use, will get a thousand times better.
快去看看吧。
So go check it out.
节目说明里有链接，一旦你成为Bankless的付费会员，就可以加入Bankless的Discord，告诉我你的使用感受。
There is a link in the show notes, and once you become a Bankless premium member, you can hop into the Bankless Discord and let me know how you like it.
干杯。
Cheers.
本周，Justin Drake发了一条推文，简直震动了整个加密货币行业。
Justin Drake this week tweeted out a tweet that just shook the entire crypto industry.
这条推文很长，我会……
It's a long tweet, and I'll...
我们会摘录一些重点内容来读。
We'll read out some select excerpts.
今天，我呼吁区块链行业冷静地开始为“地堡模式”做规划，这是原话。
Today, I call on the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for bunker mode in quotes.
我个人建议是启动一场有控制的资产大规模迁移，把资产转移到新地址，也就是公钥仍然隐藏在哈希后面的地址。
My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, I e addresses whose public keys remain hidden behind a hash.
持有者，尤其是那些大型且经验丰富的持有者，应该考虑把大部分资金转移到从未签署过交易的地址。
Holders starting with large and sophisticated ones should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction.
别着急。
Don't rush.
虽然我认为确实有必要采取行动，但仓促迁移弊大于利。
While I believe that there is cause for action, a rushed migration would do more harm than good.
也别恐慌。
Don't panic either.
把资产转移到受保护的地址是一个简单的预防措施，不需要新的密码学或新的钱包。
Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.
在我看来，现在可以合理地打破……
In my opinion, it is now reasonable to break...
做好准备，以防万一……
Brace for the possibility that e s...
ECDSA在量子日之前，也就是量子计算到来之前就被破解了。
ECDSA breaks before q day, before quantum.
什么？
What?
最坏的情况下，是几个月，不是几年。
In the worst case, months, not years.
我说的“破解”是指快速破解私钥的加密方式，也就是说，你可以在一个星期内用现有的硬件破解一个私钥，比如一个大型GPU集群。顺便说一句，这两年来我们在美国各地大力投资这些设备。
And by break, I mean fast private key cryptography, as in you can break a private key inside of one week on available hardware, I e a large GPU cluster, which by the way, we have been investing in those heavily all across America for two years now.
等等。
Wait.
什么？
What?
是的。
Yes.
好的。
Okay.
所以这就是他说的意思。
So that is what he is saying.
他呼吁的行动就是，如果你的资金在不安全的钱包里，也就是EDCSA钱包，你应该把资金转移到不使用这种加密技术的钱包里。
That is the action that he is calling for is that if you are having your funds in insecure wallets, EDCSA wallets, you should move your funds to wallets that don't use that cryptography.
等一下。
Hold on.
我们能不能先定义一下那是什么？
Can we just define what that is?
那是，嗯，对。
That is Mhmm.
至少占所有比特币的25%。
At least 25% of all Bitcoin.
对吧？
K?
这些比特币在链上某个地方有公钥。
Which, yeah, has a a public key on chain somewhere.
这还包括所有以太坊地址，是的。
That is also all Ethereum addresses Yep.
只要这些地址有过出账交易，也就是有签名交易把资金转出。
That have a transaction outbound from them, where there is a signed transaction of funds moved from the address.
所以不是那种只进不出的新地址，而是任何有EOA地址且有转出记录的地址，如果ECDSA被攻破，这些都会受影响。
So not a fresh address where it's just deposits in, but any address that has an EOA address that has deposits out, that would be susceptible if ECDSA broke.
然后，所有Solana地址也一样。
And then also, all Solana addresses too.
对。
So Yeah.
而且我相信，除此之外还有很多很多其他的区块链。
And I'm I'm sure there's many, many, many more blockchains beyond that as well.
好的。
Okay.
而且我们早就知道量子计算有可能带来这种威胁。
And now we knew this was a possibility with quantum.
事实上，两年前我们请了Justin Drake上Bankless节目，再加上最近关于量子威胁的更新，这就是为什么整个精简版以太坊路线图会存在。
In fact, we had Justin Drake on Bankless two years ago, and then with recent updates about kind of the quantum threat, and that's why the whole lean Ethereum roadmap exists.
所以量子计算在某个时间点，可能最早2030年，就可能开始破解我们的加密技术。
And so quantum at some point, maybe 2030, as early as that, could start to break our cryptography.
他现在说的不是量子。
He's not talking about quantum right now.
他说的是别的东西，可能破坏更多的数学。
He's talking about something else that could break this more math.
数学。
Math.
就是普通的数学。
Just normal math.
怎么破坏？
How?
他说的途径是什么？
What is the vector that he's talking about?
到底是什么……
What has just...
贾斯汀·德雷克看到了什么？
What did Justin Drake see?
让我直接回到他的推文。
Let me go back right into his tweet.
再引用一次贾斯汀·德雷克的话，最近的日子对人类数学直觉来说真是令人谦卑。
So once again from Justin Drake, recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition.
长期被奉为圭臬的假设已经崩塌。
Long held unquestioned hypotheses have fallen.
哇。
Wow.
真是重磅言论。
Really big words.
昨天，OpenAI发布了一堆已解决的数学问题，我读完这段后马上会详细讲。
Yesterday, OpenAI dropped a bunch of solved math problems, and so we'll get into that in a second as soon as I'm done reading the section.
回到贾斯汀。
So back to Justin.
昨天OpenAI的发布表明，数学超级智能已经到来。
Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us.
他们说这是……
They said it is...
他们说有时候几周就能发生几十年的变化。
They say there are weeks when decades happen.
我们即将经历的几周，可能会带来几个世纪的数学进步。
We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen.
我们那神奇的64位ECDSA签名，会不会好得让人不敢相信？
Could our magic 64 by ECDSA signatures be too good to be true?
难道一直以来都只是靠隐蔽来保证安全吗？
Was it just security through obscurity this entire time?
椭圆曲线在超级智能面前显得特别脆弱。
Elliptic elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence.
好的。
Okay.
那我们就来聊聊OpenAI的新闻吧。
So let's get into the OpenAI news.
所以周二，OpenAI向数学家们发布了数百项新发现，涵盖了广泛的领域，包括代数、数论、理论计算机科学以及数学逻辑拓扑学。
So on Tuesday, OpenAI OpenAI released to mathematicians hundreds of new findings that span a wide swath of topics, including algebra, number theory, theoretical computer science, and mathematical logical topology.
这算是千禧年大奖难题，也就是纳维-斯托克斯千禧年大奖难题的延续。
This is kind of a continuation down from the the Millennium Prize problem, the Navier Stokes Millennium Prize problem.
听起来OpenAI就像是在说，嘿，我们刚解决了那个超级大问题。
Well, sounds like OpenAI was like, hey, we just solved that really big problem.
咱们去把另外377个中等偏大的问题也解决了吧。
Let's go take care of 377 also medium to medium large problems.
而且他们解决纳维-斯托克斯下游这些问题的速度，简直……
And the rate at which they just solved all these problems downstream of the Navi or six, it was just...
一切都发生得太快了。
It all happened so incredibly quickly.
事实证明，AI真的很擅长数学。
I mean, turns out AI is really good at math.
数学和编程一样，是一个可以验证的领域，AI可以花费数万甚至数百万个智能体小时去攻克单个问题，并且能很快解决那些人类数学家没有时间、也没有能力真正解决的问题。
It's a verifiable domain like coding, and it can spend tens of thousands, even millions across agents of hours on individual problems and just solve things very quickly that human mathematicians haven't had the time, don't have the skill level to actually solve.
所以我觉得，当贾斯汀看到这样的信息，377个未解决的数学问题现在都被解决了，他基本上就是在往未来推演。对。
And so I I think when Justin is seeing information like this, where 377 unsolved math problems are now solved, he is kind of just extrapolating into the future Mhmm.
然后说，
And saying
我觉得没错。
I think that's right.
但我也觉得，他掌握的信息不止这些……
But I also think that he has more in...
就是说，他背后有更多内部消息和见解，不仅仅是OpenAI公开的那些。
Like, more behind the scenes sources and insights than just the OpenAI disclosures.
可能吧。
Probably.
可能吧。
Probably.
是的。
Yes.
他绝对是量子领域的内行，因为他跟谷歌量子团队有关系。
He is an insider in the world of quantum certainly because he was connected to the Google quantum team.
对我来说，我也……
To me, I am also...
我也觉得他可能只是在按常规推断AI的正常发展速度，而这个速度非常非常快。
I also think he could just be kind of vanilla extrapolating the normal progress of AI, which is very, very fast.
而且这不只是量子的问题，还有并行的路径，就是可以用一些经典计算的技巧来暴力加速破解密码学。
And it's not just a quantum issue, but it's the parallel path of there are normal classical computing tricks that you can do to accelerate breaking cryptography in a brute force way.
再加上AI，可能马上就会有更多新招。
And using AI, there potentially are more tricks right around the corner.
当我们面对一个三万亿美元的行业时，他说，好吧。
And when we have an industry, a $3,000,000,000,000 industry, he's saying, okay.
那些需要转向的大船，像Coinbase、Fireblocks这些托管机构，还有那些比特币相关的公司，所有这些人都需要现在就开始考虑这个问题，因为他们可能需要六个月甚至一年才能完成转型。
The largest ships that need to turn, the Coinbases of the world, the fire blocks of the world, the custodians, the the bit gets, the, the bit goes, all of these people need to start thinking about this problem now because it might take them six months, a year to turn their ship.
嗯，这个……
Well, it
他们确实需要那么长时间。
will take them that long.
以太坊的路线图，对吧，能解决一部分这个问题，那是什么？
I mean, Ethereum's roadmap, right, which solves a piece of this is what?
最早2029年，差不多这样？
Early as 2029, something like that?
还是2030年？
You know, like 2030?
所以这意味着超级智能，就是AI在数学上变得非常厉害，而密码学是什么？
And so what this means is super intelligence, like AI getting really good at math, and what is cryptography?
它其实就是数学。
It's it's just math.
就是数学。
It's just math.
实际上可能在那个时间点之前就能破解一些签名方案。
Could actually break some of the some of the signature schemes before that.
而且在量子计算之前。
And before quantum.
大概两年前，或者说对某些人来说是一年半前，大家突然意识到量子计算已经近在眼前，可能会从根本上破坏区块链和加密货币的加密体系。
It was like almost like two years ago, eighteen months ago for some folks, there was sort of a wake up call that quantum is on the horizon and could fundamentally break blockchain crypto cryptography.
这就像是第二次警钟，来自不同的攻击途径，但可能导致相同或类似的结果，也就是破坏底层加密技术。
This is like a second wake up call from a different vector of attack that could result in the same or a similar outcome, which is breaking underlying cryptography.
这就是贾斯汀在这里表达的意思。
That's what Justin is saying here.
我也不确定。
And I don't know.
我觉得他有理由这么说。
I think he has reason to say that.
我认为这不仅仅是看到AI擅长数学就简单推断出来的。
I think it's more than just an extrapolation of just kind of seeing, oh, like AI's really good at math.
他深入参与密码学圈子。
He's deep in cryptography circles.
你懂我的意思吗？
You know what mean?
就像他之前对量子计算那么深入一样。
Like, in the same way he was deep with quantum.
我觉得他现在发这个推文是有原因的。
I think there's a reason he is tweeting this out now.
而且看起来是有依据的，也是协调好的。
And it also seems backed up and coordinated.
比如，Vitalik 也发了关于这个的推文。
Like, Vitalik put out a tweet about this.
你看到 Matthew Green 了吗？
Did you see Matthew Green?
对我来说，Matthew Green 是最可信的证据，证明你说的不只是 Justin Drake 某天早上醒来突然决定拉响警报。
We have Matthew Green is the most credible evidence to me that what you are saying of just like this isn't just like Justin Drake waking up on a Thursday and deciding to like pull the alarm bell.
读一下那条推文。
Read the tweet.
他说了什么？
What's he say?
马修·格林是一位密码学家，我们之前请他上过播客。
Matthew Green is a cryptographer that we've had on the podcast once before.
他是一位非常有声望的密码学家，然后他非常随意地发了一条推文，说我们可能会失去公钥加密，这太疯狂了，太疯狂了。
Very prestigious cryptographer and he just tweets out very casually, I think we might lose public key cryptography, which is wild, which is wild.
是的。
Yes.
然后当人们问，好吧，什么意思？
And he says when people ask, okay, what do mean?
嗯，具体来说是加密。
Well, encryption specifically.
可能不是全部，但加密。
Maybe not all of it, but encryption.
我们会失去加密。
We lose encryption.
那就意味着所有HTTPS相关的东西。
That means all HTTPS stuff.
明白吗？
Okay?
银行、邮件、健康记录、密码、Signal、WhatsApp、iMessage，所有这些都可能被解密。
Banking, email, health records, passwords, Signal, WhatsApp, iMessage, all that stuff could be decrypted.
银行卡支付、ATM，这些都可能被伪造。
Card payments, ATMs, all that could be forged.
这显然比区块链的范围更广。
I mean, this is broader, obviously, than just blockchains.
如果我们失去了加密，我们就失去了密码学领域的所有这些东西。
If we lose encryption, we lose all of that stuff across cryptography.
而Matthew Green，他甚至不在……
And Matthew Green, he's not even in the...
他在加密行业，但更准确地说，是在密码学行业。
He's in the crypto industry, but cryptography industry, let's say.
不是加密货币。
Not cryptocurrency.
而且他也认为这种说法是有可能的。
And he is validating this claim as a possibility as well.
尼克·卡特发了一条有趣的推文，说AGI和Q日可能发生在同一年。
Nick Carter put out an interesting tweet where he says AGI and Q Day could probably take place in the same year.
所以这些威胁我们密码学安全的不同路径是……
So these different paths of threatening to the security of our cryptography are are...
它们是分开的。
They're they're separate.
就像，AI在加速这两者，但不管怎样，根本的推动力是AI在加速经典计算技巧和量子技巧。
Like, so, like, AI is accelerating both of these, but nonetheless, like, the underlying push is AI is accelerating classical computing tricks and also quantum tricks.
如果你能做到一个，你肯定也能做到另一个。
And if you can do one, you can definitely do the other.
所以这有点像，真是的。
And so it's kind of like, goddamn it.
就是说，没有……
Like, there's no there's no...
就是说，我们……
Like, we're...
AI反正就是冲着我们来的，不管怎样，事情肯定会出问题。
The AI is just coming at us no matter what, and and things are are going to break.
我觉得这大概就是今天市场下跌的原因吧。
I feel like that's probably potentially why the market is dumping today.
你可以说，比特币今天跌了3%，整个行业跌得更多，就是因为Justin Drake把大家吓到了，他让大家意识到AI导致事情出问题是不可避免的。
Like, you could you could argue like the reason why Bitcoin is down like 3% today and the industry is down even more is like, yeah, like, Justin Drake scared everyone because he, like, woke people up to just the inevitability that things break because of AI.
对了，Arthur Brightman，他是Tezos的创始人和创造者。
Well, Arthur Brightman, he's the founder and creator of Tezos.
Tezos。
Tezos.
Tezos。
Tezos.
他提出了一个观点，说OpenAI对密码学闭口不谈，这很值得注意。
He he he made the point that it's notable that OpenAI is not saying anything about cryptography.
他们不在公开场合谈论的原因，可能是——当然这是阴谋论——他们已经取得了一些突破，或者即将取得突破，所以不得不私下开始告知世界其他地方这些事情。对。
And the reason they're not saying anything publicly could be, tinfoil hat, because they've already made some breakthroughs, or are are on the cusp of making breakthroughs, and have to privately start to inform the rest of the world that these things Yeah.
就是
Are
他用的词是，OpenAI的突破中缺乏密码学成果，这本身可能就是一个信号。
The the words that he used, the lack of cryptographic results in OpenAI's breakthroughs could itself be a tell.
所以那377个数学问题，显然没有一个和密码学相关。
So the 377 math problems, apparently none of them were cryptography related.
但那是国家安全问题，我们已经看到政府介入谷歌论文的事件了，当时谷歌发布了一篇论文，说我们找到了比预期更快达到Q日的方法。
But like that, that's a matter of national security, and we've already seen the government step in on the Google paper when Google released a paper saying, hey, we actually have found a way to get to q day even faster than we thought.
然后政府让他们删减了那些信息，对吧。
And like the government made them like censor that, the the Right.
他们掌握的那些信息。
Information that they had.
所以我们之前已经见过这种情况了。
So we've already seen this happen before.
所以人们都在……
And so people are...
现在信息不足，这给了人们想象的空间，让他们感到害怕……
There's there's a lack of information and it's giving people's imaginations room to like fear...
产生恐惧，并且散布恐慌。
To have fear and fear monger.
然后还有贾斯汀·德雷克说，嘿，别慌。
And then also when you have Justin Drake saying, hey, don't panic.
人们却在恐慌。
People are panicking.
嗯，他说别慌。
Well, he's saying don't panic.
他说别慌。
He's saying don't panic.
而且你确实可以这么做。
And you could do that.
你可以慢慢地、一步一步地走进那个避难所。
You could step into the the bunker calmly and slowly over time.
但我们现在就是要进避难所。
But we're going into the bunker.
对，没错。
Like Yeah.
他实际上在说的是，避难所很可怕。
What he's what he's actually saying The bunker's scary.
他真正想说的是，任何曾经发送过ETH的ELA地址上的所有以太币，都可能受到这种攻击的影响。
What what he's actually saying is potentially all Ether on any ELA address that has sent ETH from it could be susceptible for this type of attack.
那么，避难所到底是什么呢？
And so what is the bunker?
嗯，那就是……
Well, that's...
你实际上必须把你的资金转移到一个从未使用过的地址里。
You actually have to move your funds into a key, into an address that's never been used before.
这真是个大问题，而且——
That is massively And
然后还不能用它。
then also not use it.
不能用。你在保险库里的时候不能动它。
Not use You can't you can't use it while it's in the bunker.
否则，你就把保险库给炸了。
Otherwise, you you explode the bunker.
好吧。
Alright.
在咱们搞清楚这件事之前，谁也别在链上做任何操作，大概又要花上……
Nobody do anything on chain until we figure this out for, like, the next, like, it's another...
说实话，我觉得这又是对自我托管和链上可用性的一次打击。
Honestly, it's another blow against self custody, I would say, and on chain usability.
因为现在你告诉人们，哦，是的。
Because like now you're telling people like, oh, yeah.
你以为安全的那个地址，其实并不安全。
The address that you thought was safe, that's actually not safe.
你得去转移资金，去折腾一下。所以他发出这个警告可能是对的。
You have to go like move funds, go tinker with So, I mean, he might be right in raising this alarm.
只是感觉有点糟糕。
It's just like, it just kinda sucks.
不可能不对此感到某种程度的害怕。
There's no way to like not have some level of being scared about this.
现在有些人完全反对这个观点，说这是个糟糕的观点，说这其实是FUD。
Now there are some people pushing back against this take entirely, saying it's a bad take, saying it's actually FUD.
这是Coinbase的密码学负责人说的：我本来不想评论，但Justin的观点真的很糟糕。
This is the head of cryptography at Coinbase saying, I wasn't gonna comment, but Justin's take is really bad take.
所以现在我觉得我必须说点什么。
So now I feel like I need to.
他说，AI能够证明那些曾经很难的定理，这并不意味着那些被认为很难的问题其实并不难。
He said the fact that AI can prove theorems that have been hard does not indicate in any way that problems assumed to be hard or not.
我们对难题的假设，不仅仅是基于人类会犯错，而是基于一种信念：即存在固有的难度。
Our assumption on hard problems are not based merely on human fallibility, but on a belief that inherent hardness exists.
所以他的意思是，你看，在密码学里，有些东西就是特别难解。
So he's saying like, look, in some of the cryptography, there's some things that are just like really hard.
不管你有多聪明，它们可能根本就是物理上无法破解的。
Doesn't matter how intelligent you are, they might be like, I guess physically impossible to break.
这里还有一整条讨论串，密码学家们可以深入探讨一下这个观点的合理性。
And there's a whole thread here and cryptographers can kind of get into the merits of this case.
但他的意思是，别反应过度。
But he's saying, like, don't go overboard.
我们其实并不清楚具体情况。
We, like, we don't know.
可能有些阈值只是更偏向物理层面的，而不是我们……
You know, there might be some thresholds here that are just, like, more physical than, you know, than we...
超级智能能想出更好的算法来真正解决这些问题。
You know, superintelligence can cook up a better algorithm to actually go solve these things.
唐克拉德也反驳了，他基本上说别想着躲进地堡了。
Donkrad also pushed back and he basically said forget bunker mode.
明白吗？
Okay?
如果这种情况发生，
If this happens,
我们都完蛋了。
we're all going down.
就像，一切都完了。
Like, all goes out.
没用的。
It doesn't matter.
到处都是核辐射尘埃。
There's there's nuclear fallout everywhere.
你可能会……
You might...
就算你躲在防空洞里也没用。
It doesn't matter if you're in a bunker.
或者更实际一点，假设ECDSA被破解了。
Or I mean more practically, let's say ECDSA is broken.
你把加密货币从一个地址转到另一个地址，但价值……
You've moved your crypto from one address to another, but the value of...
嗯，因为被破解了，对。
Well, because it's broken Yeah.
你的资产价值会下跌90%。
The value of your asset goes down 90%.
好吧。
Like, okay.
Mert有个观点，他直接拒绝了Justin的建议。
Mert had a take that he just rejects Justin's advice.
他说，你因为表面上的转移资产而亏钱的可能性，远比基础密码学一夜之间被攻破要大得多。
He says, you are way more likely to lose your money by superficially moving it around than for a fundamental cryptography to break overnight.
然后，针对Don Grayscale的观点，如果真发生那种事，整个金融世界都会崩溃，不只是加密货币，他还称那篇文章是没必要的作秀。
And then to to Don Grayscale point, if that happened, the whole world would break, not just the coins and calls it an unnecessarily performative post.
再往下看，他也确实提到，而且我在几个聊天里也看到类似的说法，就是Justin是个非常厉害的数学家和密码学家。
And for further down, he also does make the point, and I've seen this kinda echoed in a few of my chats that Justin is a very competent mathematician and cryptographer.
他不是那种...
He is not the...
在时间预测方面，他的记录并不算好。
Has not had the best track record with timelines.
那不是...
That is not...
那过去并不是他最擅长的领域。
That has not been his best skill set in the past.
所以我一直在试图调和这两件事。
And so I'm trying to square these two things.
比如说，如果有一个我信任的数学专家，那就是贾斯汀·德雷克。
Like, if there's one person I know to trust about math, it's Justin Drake.
确实如此。
It's true.
如果有一个领域他能准确预测时间线，那也会是数学和摄影。
If there was one domain about timelines that he was going to get right, it would also be about math and photography.
不过，我得承认，贾斯汀·德雷克过去的时间线预测并不总是那么准确。
However, I will admit that Justin Drake's timeline projections in the past have not been the best.
尽管在量子问题上，他比我能想到的任何人都更接近真相。
Although he's been more right about quantum than just about anybody I can name
在密码学以及那个威胁方面。
in cryptography and that threat.
我觉得贾斯汀发那条推文的部分原因，是想推动以太坊时间线的加速，真的……
And I think part of the genesis for Justin's tweet was to sort of accelerate the lean Ethereum timeline, real...
确实。
Really.
就是说，嘿。
It's just like, hey.
这就是我们需要把这件事做对的原因。
This is the reason we need to get this right.
因为有一个问题。
Because there's a question.
Lean...
Does lean...
我们知道Lean以太坊解决了量子问题。
We know lean Ethereum fixes quantum.
以太坊的路线图真的解决了这个向量吗？
Does the Ethereum roadmap actually fix this vector?
这个问题的答案是，基本上是的。
And the answer to that question is, like, mostly yes.
Vitalik这周确实确认了这一点。
Vitalik actually confirmed that this week.
Lean已经只使用哈希，没有格密码了。
Lean has gone hash only, no lattices.
好的。
Okay.
所以哈希对这种AI超级智能之类的破解方式不太敏感。
So hash is less susceptible to this type of AI super intelligence kind of, like, breaking.
格密码更容易受影响。
Lattices are more susceptible.
所以Lean以太坊倾向于只用哈希密码学，而不是格密码。
And so Lean Ethereum is leaning to hash only cryptography rather than lattices.
这是好事。
So that's a good thing.
问题是，还有……
The thing is, there's still...
我们离那一步还有好几年。
We're still years away from that.
对吧？
Okay?
所以这里有个差距。
So there's a gap here.
我们离那还很远。
We're years away.
而且，如果马修·格林说得对，加密可能会被破解。
And then also, if Matthew Green is right, encryption could be broken.
所以我的理解是，虽然我不是密码学家，但隐私功能在以太坊上可能根本实现不了。
So this means my understanding, not a cryptographer, is that privacy features just, like, might not be possible on Ethereum.
所以你可以得到哈希和签名，区块链仍然能运行，但就像，跟私有内存池说再见吧。
So you could get the hash and the signatures and the blockchain would still operate, but like, say goodbye to like private mempools.
跟任何秘密的私人币数据说再见吧。
Say goodbye to like any kind of like secret private coin data.
全同态加密。
FHE.
如果这是真的，你可能就要跟加密货币的隐私部分说再见了。
Like, you could be saying goodbye to the privacy part of crypto if this is true.
再说，我还没研究过这对Zcash意味着什么。
Which again, I've not explored what this means for Zcash.
但不管怎样，这整个类别都让人震惊，AI真的可能从根本上改变这一切。
But anyway, it's a whole category of like, holy shit, like AI could really change this fundamentally.
而我们对未来的方向感到不确定。
And we're just uncertain as to where the future is pointing to.
对，我觉得如果这事发生了，如果加密货币领域出了什么大问题，其他所有地方也会跟着出问题。
Yeah, I feel like if this happens, if something blows up and breaks in crypto land, also the shit's breaking everywhere else too.
是的。
Like Yes.
银行、HTTPS。
The banks, HTTPS.
比如，汽车会被黑客攻击。
Like, cars are gonna be hacked.
我不知道，老兄。
I don't know, man.
就是，我，我……
Like, I I just...
我觉得世界现在要爆炸了。
I feel like the world's about to blow up now.
我们正处在AI接管什么的边缘。
We're on the precipice of AI takeover or something.
一个原因，这要回到我听斯科特·阿伦森说过的话。
One reason, this goes back to something I heard Scott Aronson say.
一个原因，嗯。
One reason Uh-huh.
也许我不像其他人那样担心的一个原因是，我觉得在这一切开始发生之前，你会看到……
To maybe that I'm not as worried as I would be otherwise is I think right before this starts to happen, you know, you'd see.
他告诉我，量子技术并不像人们说的那么近，因为如果真是那样，你会开始看到量子研究人员消失。
He he told me, like, quantum's not necessarily as near as people say, because if it was, you'd start to see quantum researchers, like, disappearing.
是吗？
K?
而且没什么……
And nothing to...
就像，他们会被OpenAI、被政府挖走，天哪，快来帮我们解决这个问题。
Like, they would be slurped up by OpenAI, by governments, like holy shit, like help us solve this.
被关进一个真正的秘密基地，叫‘曼哈顿计划2.0’，不是保密宣誓，而是如果泄露就坐牢。是的。
Put put into a literal bunker called the Manhattan Project two point o, not sworn to secrecy, jailed if they jailed if they talk Yes.
然后呢，
And then
他们会被迫先解决政府的问题，然后再解决社会的问题？
they would be compelled to solve the problem first of the government and then of society?
所以我觉得那是个关键。
So I think that's a that's a key.
当你看到著名的密码学家，可能在加密货币领域，也可能在其他领域，开始有点消失，比如‘我在研究别的东西’的时候。
When you see notable cryptographers, maybe in crypto, maybe outside, start to kind of like disappear, like, I'm working on something else.
对吧？
Alright?
也许那就是事情要发生的时候。
Maybe that's when it's about to happen.
我们还没看到那一步。
We haven't seen that yet.
我们活在什么世界里啊，兄弟？
What world are we living in, dude?
我不知道。
I don't know.
我不知道。
I don't know.
不过，有些二层网络正在关闭。
A world where some L2s are shutting down though.
一个少了两个二层网络的世界，可能还会少三个。
A world with two less l twos, potentially three.
第三个我们马上就会讲到。
We'll get to that third in a second.
Blast 和 Abstract 这周都宣布要关闭了。
Blast and Abstract both have announced the shutdown this week.
Blast 的原话是，维持 Blast 的持续成本超过了这个二层网络带来的收入。
Quote from Blast, the ongoing cost of maintaining blast exceeded the revenue generated by the l two.
我们看不到让这条链在经济上可持续下去的可行路径。
We do not see a credible path to making the chain economically sustainable.
Blast 巅峰时期的总锁仓量有23亿美元。
At its peak, Blast had $2,300,000,000 of TVL.
Blast 当初推出了整个收益和积分的概念，通过积分奖励用户上链，现在基本上归零了，确实是归零了。
Blast introduced the whole yield and points phenomenon, rewarding points for for coming onto the chain, And now it's basically at zero, and it is at zero.
所以有一个……
So there is a...
如果你在 Blast 上还有资金，10月26日就是最后期限。
If you have any funds left on Blast, October 26 is your date.
所以大概二十天，不到二十天。
So about twenty days, less than twenty days.
之后 Layer One 的桥接合约还能用，但用户界面的提币功能会关闭。
The layer one bridge contract will still work after that, but the UI the UI withdrawal will be closed.
Abstract 引用了他们的声明：经过近三年的努力，我们很遗憾地宣布，Abstract 即将停止运营。
Abstract, quote from Abstract, after almost three years, we are saddened to share that Abstract is winding down.
事实证明，专注于消费级加密货币的链式运营模式，作为独立业务是难以持续的。
Operating chain focus exclusively on consumer crypto has ultimately proven to be unsustainable as a standalone model.
这是Pudgy Penguin的Layer 2。
This is Pudgy Penguin's L two.
还有ZK，这个……
There's ZK This
就是Pudgy Penguin。
is Pudgy Penguin.
没错。
That's right.
对。
That's right.
对。
That's right.
他们尝试过做这件事，但就是找不到产品市场契合点，所以他们也准备关停了。
And they tried to do this, and they just couldn't get product market fit, so they're shutting down as well.
然后我看到了这个。
And then I saw this.
Starknet，Starknet 从官方账号发的推文。
Starknet Starknet tweeting out from official Starknet account.
我们正在积极考虑成为一层网络。
We are actively considering becoming an l one.
这将使 Starknet 成为第一个抗量子网络，目标定在2027年。
This would enable Starknet to become the first quantum resistant network with 2027 as our target.
所以 Starknet，当然是最早的二层网络之一。对。
So Starknet, of course, one of the original L2s Mhmm.
现在他们又发推说，可能会因为量子计算的原因转型为 L1。
Now tweeting out that they may become an L1 for quantum reasons.
从技术角度来说，这还挺有道理的。Starknet 的技术一直都很超前，走在行业前面。
Like, it makes sense in in a technical way, like like Starknet's tech has always been super far, like, ahead of the curve and everything.
刚才那个双关语用得不错。
Like, that was a good pun.
说是走在 EDSA 曲线的前面呢。
Ahead of the EDSA curve.
是的。
Yes.
对。
Yes.
太棒了。
That's great.
刚才那段真不错。
That was great.
拍拍我，你被解雇了，大卫。
Pat me on the You're fired, David.
谢谢。
Thank you.
同时，好吧，各位。
At the same time, okay, guys.
你们这些人从我记事起就一直嚷嚷着要离开以太坊。
Like, you guys have been posturing about leaving Ethereum as long as I can remember.
那就走啊。
Do it.
我们正要这么做。
We're about to do it.
我们打算这么做。
We're gonna do it.
给我们一个充分的理由。
Just give us one good reason.
一个好的理由。
One good reason.
确实，量子是一个很好的理由。
Granted, quantum is a very good reason.
所以这是个好理由。
So it's a good reason.
但是，我也不太确定。
But like, I don't know.
我觉得代币价格可能也是
I think token price might be
一个很好的理由。
a good reason too.
他们看到的是……
I mean, they're seeing...
嗯，我觉得吧，
Well, like, I think that
L2的溢价。
The L2 premium.
这周市场血流成河，量子代币却在上涨，包括Starknet。
Like blood on the streets this week, the quantum tokens are up, including Starknet.
所以……
So...
就是这样。
There you go.
而L2交易的那个L2溢价，所有那些
And the the L2 premium that the L2 trade, all of
都已经结束了。
that is is over.
我不知道。
I don't know.
这只是L2路线图余烬未熄的感觉。
It's just just the smoldering of kind of the, like remains of the L2 roadmap.
我的意思是
I mean
嗯，记得，这就像……
Well, remember, like, this is...
我发了这条推文。
I put this out this tweet.
有人在推特上问我这个问题，我就说，好吧。
Somebody was asked this on Twitter, I was like, okay.
但就像，以太坊真的会替你支付安全费用，你不需要自己操心。
But like, Ethereum will literally pay for your security on your behalf, and you don't have to do that.
这一点无论如何都存在。
That still exists no matter what.
所以二层网络的商业模式是无敌的。
So the layer two business model is undefeated.
所以如果Starknet想成为一层网络，他们就得开始发行Stark并增发Stark来支付自己的安全费用。
And so if Starknet wants to become a layer one, they're gonna have to start to issue Stark and inflate Stark to pay for their own security.
那你为什么要这么做呢？
And why do you wanna do that?
嗯，也许是因为代币溢价，也许这只是一个空头威胁，也许十二个月后我们还会看到这种情况。
Well, maybe because the token premium, maybe maybe this is an empty threat, and maybe we'll see this again in twelve months time.
这次我们可能会真的做。
We might do it this time.
他们这次可能会真的做。
They might do it this time.
他们可能会来真的。
They might do it for real.
接下来，这是Bankless价值观的一次胜利。
Coming up next, this was a win for for Bankless values.
FinCEN撤回了...
FinCEN withdraw...
撤回了它的非托管钱包规则。
Withdrew its unhosted wallet rules.
这可是件大事，前方有令人担忧的事情。
This is a big deal, something scary on the horizon.
还有，大卫，我想问你，你去了Token2049。
Also, David, I wanna ask you, you've been down at Token2049.
我想问问你那里的氛围怎么样，你有什么收获。
I wanna ask you what the vibes were like, what your takeaways were.
我们还没机会聊这个，所以咱们休息之后再说。
We haven't gotten a chance to talk about that, so we'll do that after the break.
在开始之前，我们要感谢让这一切成为可能的赞助商。
Before we do, we wanna thank the sponsors that made this possible.
有个令人兴奋的消息。
Some exciting news.
我们正在推出一个新播客，帮助人们了解加密货币周期，以及如何应对。
We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how to navigate it.
我认识的最好的加密货币周期投资者，他叫迈克尔·纳托。
The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael Nato.
他运营着《DeFi报告》。
He runs The DeFi Report.
就是这个人，在价格跌到10.10美元之前给我发了卖出提醒。
This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the $10.10 price drop happened.
他的周期分析一直非常精准。
His cycle analysis has been absolutely on point.
我关注他好几年了。
I've been following him for years.
今年，我们开始每周录制播客节目。
And this year, we started recording weekly podcast episodes.
每一期都会聊他的投资组合、他持有的资产、市场结构、入场目标、比特币和以太坊的公允价值，以及我们目前处于周期的哪个阶段。
Each one, get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure, entry targets, fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether, and where we are in the cycle.
每周三都会发布新一期。
There's new episodes that are released every Wednesday.
每期大约三十分钟。
They're thirty minutes.
时间不长。
They're short.
内容很紧凑。
They're punchy.
我觉得这轮加密货币周期比大多数周期都难把握，所以让我们一起应对吧。
I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most, so let's do it together.
去订阅这个播客吧。
Go subscribe to this podcast.
无论你在哪里收听播客，YouTube、Apple、Spotify，都可以搜索The DeFi Report，或者在节目说明里找到链接。
Search The DeFi Report wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or find a link in the show notes.
现在有一集新节目在等着你。
There's a new episode waiting for you now.
灰度Zcash ETF的资产管理规模突破了10亿美元，这有点疯狂，因为Zcash的总市值是210亿美元。
The Grayscale Zcash ETF passes $1,000,000,000 in AUM, which is kinda crazy because the market cap of Zcash is $21,000,000,000.
所以这几乎是Zcash总供应量的二十分之一。
So almost one twentieth of the total supply of Zcash.
真是疯狂。
Pretty crazy.
这
That's
那就是Tom Lee说的5%在ETF里。
And that's Tom Lee's 5% in an ETF.
那就是Tom Lee说的5%在ETF里。
That's Tom Lee's 5% in in an ETF.
除了Grayscale的Zcash ETF资产规模突破10亿美元之外，Winklevoss也提交了他们的Zcash ETF申请，代码是WINK。
In addition to the Grayscale Zcash passing $1,000,000,000 of AUM, the Winklevoss also filed for their Zcash ETF, ticker wink.
代码WINK。
Ticker wink.
挺可爱的。
That's cute.
挺可爱的。
That's cute.
我觉得挺有意思的。
I think that's cute.
我本来打算买的，因为温克莱沃斯兄弟他们很早就关注Zcash了。
Was gonna I was gonna buy it because like the Winklevai, they were early to Zcash.
在大家还没怎么注意它的时候，他们就看好Zcash。
They believe in Zcash when when like no one really paid attention to it.
后来我想算了，我不买那个叫Wink的了。
And then I was like, I'm not gonna buy a Wink.
因为名字的原因吗？
Because of the name?
我就买一点Zcash，然后放进隐私池里。
I'll just a spot at Zcash and put it in the shielded pool.
我才不会去买那个Wink呢。
I'm not gonna buy a Wink.
那玩意儿对我来说没用。
Can't No do for me.
需求很旺盛，很稳健。
I mean, good robust demands.
Zcash 在过去一年到一年半里表现非常出色。
Zcash has had an incredible year to eighteen months or so.
现在只是回调，David，我知道你仍然看涨。
And just a pullback right now, David, I know you you remain bullish.
太糟糕了。
Terrible.
我现在正在大量买入 Zcash。
Am T whopping into Zcash as we speak right now.
好的，不是 Wink，是 Zcash。
Okay, not wink, but Zcash.
我们要感谢一位英雄，一位加密货币英雄，她最后一次正式告别了。
We gotta thank a hero, a crypto hero who has signed off for her final time.
这位是委员 Hester Peirce。
This is Commissioner Hester Peirce.
她辞职了吗？
Has she resigned?
还是只是任期结束了？
Or was this just the end of her tenure?
到底怎么回事？
What's happening?
就是这样。
This was it.
她的任期结束了。
This was the end of her tenure.
没错。
That's right.
她还给白宫写了一封正式的信。
And she signed like a formal letter to the White House.
是写给唐纳德·特朗普的吗？
Is that to Donald Trump, think?
就是感谢他。
Just like thanking him.
对。
Yep.
没错。
That's right.
就是感谢他让她完成了任期。
Just thanking him for her her term there.
然后她又发了一条推文说，嘿，感谢所有人，包括我的黑粉。
And then she sent out another tweet saying, hey, thanks for everyone, my haters.
你看到了吗？
Did you see that?
没有。
No.
我没看到。
I didn't.
这也太离谱了。
That's crazy.
感谢过去一周里大家对我的许多善意评价，也感谢在我任职美国证券交易委员会期间大家的关注……
Thanks for the many kind words over the past week and for the engagement over my time at the a s...
美国证券交易委员会。
SEC.
也要感谢我的那些批评者。
Thanks to my many critics too.
敢于对政府官员提出严厉批评，正是让这个国家伟大的原因之一。
Vigorous critics of government officials are part of what makes this country great.
这个账号不会再发推了。
No more tweets from this account.
大家在外头小心点。
Be careful out there.
Investor.gov，那是个专门保护投资者权益的网站。
Investor.gov, which is the investor protections website.
谢谢你，埃斯特。
Thank you, Esther.
真是风度翩翩。
Absolute class act.
对。
Yep.
简直是有史以来最伟大的公职人员。
Just the the greatest public servant of all time.
我觉得阿姆斯特朗……
I think Armstrong...
布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗总结得很好。
Brian Armstrong summed it up well.
他说……
She said...
他说，真是精彩的一段旅程。
He said, what a run.
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