汇总：比特币的自信游戏 | Bitmine 押注以太坊 | 代币轮动 | 美国永续合约

我想这就是答案了。

I guess that's the answer.

一边卖一边买，感觉有点怪。

It just feels weird to be selling out of one pocket and buying from another.

是的。

Yeah.

这很明显啊。

I mean, obviously it is.

你干嘛要这么做呢？

Like, why would you do this?

这些DATs为什么要这么做？

Why is it why are any the DATs doing this?

因为他们觉得价格会涨。

The answer is because they think number go up.

对。

Yeah.

如果你不觉得价格会上涨，那就别这么做。

If you don't think number go up, don't do this.

这根本不是什么好策略。

This is not this is not a good strategy.

你靠这种方式做随机操作，长期来看根本赚不到钱。

You will not make money in the long run doing this for random things.

只有当价格上涨时，你才能靠这种方式赚钱。

You will only make money doing this if number go up.

所以这本质上就是一场赌价格上涨的游戏。

So this is a number go up game.

价格上涨，他们就赢了。

If number go up, they win.

价格下跌，他们就输了。

If number go down, they lose.

其实就这么简单。

It's it's really that simple.

这些人正在加杠杆。

These guys are taking on leverage.

现在加杠杆的条件非常有利。

It's very favorable terms to take on leverage.

从比例上看，杠杆不算高，但这确实是杠杆。

It's not a lot of leverage in in percentage terms, but this is leverage.

所以，只有在数字上涨的时候，加杠杆才有效。

So getting levered only works when number go up.

我觉得汤姆·李得撤回他5%的目标，他说我们要买下总量5%的E供应量，然后就收手了。

I think Tom Lee needs to rescind his 5% target because he says like we're gonna earn we're gonna buy 5% of the total e supply and then we're and then we're gonna call it good.

在我看来，这种说法削弱了整个系统的动力。

To me that takes some of the energy out of the whole system.

如果你说，我只买不超过5%，那我觉得你干脆就该放手去买，市场能给多少就买多少。

You if you say you're like, I'm just gonna not buy more than 5%, I think you kinda have to I am going to literally buy as much as the market will give me.

他现在是多少了？

What's he at now?

大概是百分之三多一点吗？

Is it like three something?

不是，是4.5%。

No, 4.5%.

他差不多快到了。

He's pretty close.

他们还提到，随着接近5%，他们会减缓以太坊的买入速度。

They also said that they are going to slow down their ETH purchases as they approach 5%.

对我来说，我觉得这跟之前那个策略完全不是一回事了。

So to me, I was like, okay, this is a different game than what strategy was playing.

迈克尔·萨伊尔，还有迈克尔·策略，他们的说法是：我要尽可能多地买入比特币。

Michael Michael Saylor, Michael Strategy is like, I'm going to give I'm going to buy as much Bitcoin as as humanly possible.

而汤姆·李说的是：我们会买够5%。

And Tom Lee was saying, yeah, we're gonna get 5%.

买够了就停手，现在到了4.5%，我们也在慢慢放缓节奏。

We're gonna call it good, and we're slowing our way there because we're at 4.5.

我觉得，发行收益产品的同时又把上限定在5%，这中间有点不对劲。

And so there's something dislocated to me about the issuing of the yield offering and also capping at 5%.

我觉得他应该直接说：我们要冲到15%。

Like, I think he needs to say like, ah, we're going for fifteenth.

我们要冲到50%。

We're going for 50%.

对。

Yeah.

你这么说，其实也没错。

You look, you're not wrong.

我觉得汤姆·李在快接近5%的时候，很可能会重新评估这个目标。

I I do think that it's very likely that, Tom Lee is probably going to reevaluate that 5% number when he gets to spinning distance of it.

如果你已经在放缓步伐，这个产品就没什么意义了。

And this offering doesn't make a lot of sense if you're slowing down.

这明明是个加速的举措。

This is a speed up kind of offering.

这是个加速的举措。

This is a

加速没错。

speed up Yeah.

这明显是个加速的举动。

This is a speed up thing.

所以我觉得你说得对。

So I I think that you are right.

我觉得这可能是个信号，你知道的，汤姆·李的收入跟这个项目的规模直接挂钩。

I think this is maybe a signal of that is that, you know, look, Tom Lee gets paid, the bigger that this thing becomes.

如果规模变大了，他赚得就更多。

If it becomes really big, he makes more money.

所以他的动机再清楚不过了。

So his incentive is very obvious.

不过话说回来，以太坊确实和比特币不一样，因为持有大量比特币并不会影响比特币的特性，毕竟比特币的共识机制是工作量证明。

Now that being said, it is also true that ETH is actually different from Bitcoin in that owning a lot of Bitcoin doesn't really impair Bitcoin's properties because, you know, the consensus of Bitcoin is around proof of work.

这跟持有量没关系。

It's not around ownership.

而以太坊的治理权力实际上在质押上。

Whereas for Ethereum, the the, you know, the the the governance power of Ethereum is actually in staking.

如果你持有大量ETH并进行质押，确实会对网络拥有更大的控制权，这一点可能有点让人担忧。

And so if you own a lot of ETH and you're staking it, you actually do exert more control and more power over the network in a way that is potentially somewhat sus.

所以我觉得是的。

And so I think yeah.

我不确定这是否影响了这个局面，但他可能注意到了这一点。

I I don't know if this is playing into that equation, but he might be mindful of that.

对。

Mhmm.

你知道，以太坊的质押总量大概是多少？

You know, the total ETH steak supply is what is it?

大概三成多，三十五左右吧。

Like, 30 something, 4030353035%.

好的。

Okay.

所以如果高于这个比例的话。

So if say it's higher than that.

高于这个比例。

It's higher than that.

大概是40%。

It's like 40%.

好的。

Okay.

40%。

40%.

我们就假设这是对的吧。

Let's say let's assume that's right.

好的。

Okay.

是的

Yeah.

如果他有五颗，那他就占了总牙数的八分之一。

So if he has five, then he's one eighth of the total teeth.

对吧？

Right?

是的

Yeah.

你得掌握总共已质押牙齿的三分之一，才能基本造成共识的重大故障。

So you have to get to 33% of total staked teeth in order to basically be able to cause a major failure in consensus.

那这个数字是多少呢？

And so that takes you to what is that?

13%？

13%?

对

Mhmm.

所以还没多少余地，他就要突破以太坊的安全模型了。

So that's not a lot of headroom before basically he's breaking the security model of Ethereum.

没错。

Right.

这说明这东西不能无限扩张。

Which tells you this thing cannot get arbitrarily big.

以太币的规模也没比特币那么大。

And ETH is not as big as Bitcoin.

对吧？

Right?

比特币大概有一万五千亿美元。

So, you know, Bitcoin's 1 and a half trillion.

以太币大概两千五百亿美元左右。

ETH is $250,000,000,000 roughly.

所以是的。

So Yeah.

这个策略持有的比特币还不到1%，但汤姆·李持有的以太坊占了4.5%。

The strategy doesn't have 1% of Bitcoin and Tom Lee has 4.5% of ETH.

对。

Right.

对这个策略来说，根本没什么上限。

There's effectively no ceiling on strategy.

就算策略持有5%的比特币，也完全不影响大局。

Strategy could own, you know, 5% of Bitcoin and still doesn't matter.

这并不会真正改变比特币本身的任何东西。

It doesn't really change anything about Bitcoin itself.

但如果汤姆·李的持仓涨到13%，那就是他目前水平的两倍半了。

But if if Tom Lee goes to 13%, that's like a two and a half times where he currently is.

汤姆·李现在大概持有100亿美元。

Tom Lee's about 10,000,000,000.

如果按当前价格涨到250亿美元，那他就差不多能左右共识了。

So if he gets to 25,000,000,000 at current prices, then he is now basically kind of in control of consensus.

这有点奇怪。

That's weird.

这太奇怪了。

That's very weird.

确实挺奇怪的。

That is weird.

不过这事也有个积极的一面，你可能会同意我的看法。

There is a silver lining to that that may maybe you'll agree with me.

你之前把我推到风口浪尖上，我们聊过很多次，说需要一个新机构来填补以太坊基金会有意留下的空缺——这个机构要支持ETH这个资产，支持ETH的金融化，支持价格上行，支持让以太坊在与其他区块链的竞争中占据优势，而我现在越来越觉得，Bitmine正准备接过这根接力棒。

You had me on the chopping block and we talked a lot about this, that there needs to be an institution, a new institution that fills the vacuum that the EF is intentionally leaving behind that is pro ETH the asset, pro the financialization of ETH the asset, pro number go up, pro leading Ethereum to be market competitive with with other blockchains, and I see increasingly Bitmine being positioned to take that torch.

也许他们自己并不想承担这个角色，但因为他们持有这么多ETH，某种程度上不得不这么做。

Maybe they don't even want it, but they kind of have to because they have so much ETH.

所以我反而觉得，有一个与ETH资产及其价格表现深度绑定的实体，其实是好事，它还能和那些离开以太坊基金会、流向外界的核心人才保持协同。

So I'm actually of the opinion that it's actually a good thing to have an entity that is existentially tied to Ether the asset and its price performance and also can be aligned with some of the, you know, Ethereum Foundation members that have left, brain drain out of the EF.

我觉得这里面有不小的操作空间。

I think there's optionality there.

我不太清楚那边在搞什么，但我觉得，尽管你提到的那些风险——比如一个持有者拥有太多ETH，对网络来说有点可疑——但这件事对以太坊反而是件好事。

I don't quite know what's cooking over there, but I could see that actually being quite a good thing for Ethereum despite all the risks that you identified where if one holder has too much ETH, that's kinda sus for the network.

是的。

Yeah.

我完全同意你的看法。

So I completely agree with you.

我坚信，他们现在最有可能成为ETH这个资产的经济代言人。

I very much very much think that they are in pole position to be that economic advocate for ETH, the asset.

不过，这也让他们陷入了一个尴尬的治理位置，现在他们对网络拥有不成比例的影响力。

That said, like, it does put them in this kind of uncomfortable governance position where now they have disproportionate power over the network.

以太坊一直宣传自己是可信中立的，是能扛住世界大战的那种，诸如此类。

A lot of Ethereum story is that it's credibly neutral, is that it's, you know, whatever World War three resistant, blah blah blah.

但如果一家上市公司成了以太坊最主要的守护者，还掌握着随时叫停网络的权力，比如他们说：‘以太坊不执行OFAC合规要求’。

If you have one public company that is the major, like, the largest steward of Ethereum and has the ability to kind of stop the show if they want to, they say, hey, you know, Ethereum is, you know, not enforcing OFAC compliance.

那对我们来说就不妙了，毕竟我们是上市公司，随时可能收到传票。

Well, that's not good for us because we're a public company and we're getting subpoenas.

所以呢，理论上讲，我刚才有点在夸大其词了。

So, you know, like, there's in principle I mean, again, I'm I'm kind of scaremongering a little bit.

但我并不觉得这真的会发生。

I don't think this is likely.

而且也有可能，如果Bitmine真做到了拥有三分之一的ETH总质押量，

And I I think it's also possible that that a Bitmine, if they get into that position, let's say that they start to own a third of the overall stake supply of ETH.

对吧？

Right?

那他们或许会把一部分ETH转到DeFi里赚收益，而不是全拿去质押。

One can imagine that maybe, okay, we're gonna move some of that ETH into DEFI to get yield instead of putting it into staking.

也可能把资金转给其他质押服务商，比如Lido之类的，而不是只用自己旗下的质押节点，这样就不直接掌控了。

Maybe instead we're also going to move it into other stakers instead of the staker that we own, we're gonna move some of it into Lido, you know, whatever, so that we're not actually directly in control.

甚至可以把ETH放进匿名信托，由第三方来负责质押，这些信托可能由非营利组织之类的机构来管理。

And maybe even we put it into blind trusts, and those trusts are responsible for staking, and those, you know, the governance over those are done by third parties or, you know, somebody else entirely that has some kind of nonprofit type structure around it.

我们只是把ETH质押进去，但不再对公司层面的治理有直接控制权。

So that and we pledge our ETH there, and we don't have corporate governance control over it.

所以我们并不掌控以太坊。

Therefore, we are not in control of ETH.

我觉得如果他们真达到这种战略规模，突破了5%的门槛，就不得不认真考虑这个问题了——尤其是当以太坊基金会逐渐退出，共识层的规模远不如比特明，其他所有DAT又都比比特明小得多的时候。

I think there's a problem that that if they get to strategy levels of success and they blow past the 5% threshold, they do probably have to start thinking about this, about, you know, what does it mean when you are now with the EF stepping back, with consensus not really being anywhere near the scale now of what Bitmine is, and all the other DATs being quite a bit smaller than Bitmine.

而比特明现在能接触到更大的资本市场工具，比如发行那种结构复杂的优先股，这可能让他们一路飙升，成为以太坊最大的单一持有者。

And Bitmine now having access to the bigger levers within capital markets, being able to issue preferreds that are stretch style, that may mean that, you know, they just rocket their way to becoming by far the largest single holder of ETH.

一旦真到了那一步，情况就会比现在纯粹的金融操作复杂得多。

And when that happens, things might get trickier relative to what it is today with a pure financial play.

对。

Mhmm.

我觉得这些股权收益工具到底算不算庞氏骗局，现在还不好说。

I think the jury is still out on whether these equity yield instruments are Ponzis or not.

卡米·鲁索发推问过，这些东西到底算不算庞氏骗局？

Cammy Russo tweeted out, are these things Ponzis or not?

我的看法是：如果风险控制得当，它们就不是庞氏骗局；如果控制不好，那它们就是。

And my answer was they are not Ponzis if they are appropriately risk managed and they are Ponzis if they are not.

我不确定你对此有没有看法。

I don't know if you have an opinion on this.

我觉得这可能是未来几年里一个主要话题——这些东西到底是什么，市场会怎么看待它们？

I think this is actually kind of being one of the major stories of the next few years is like, what are these things and how does the market treat them over time?

你觉得呢

What do

你觉得它们是什么？

you think they are?

我觉得很难把这些称为庞氏骗局。

I think it's hard to describe these as Ponzis.

庞氏骗局注定会崩盘。

A Ponzi is guaranteed to fail.

所以运营庞氏骗局才构成犯罪。

That's why it's crime to run a Ponzi scheme.

这些显然不是注定会失败的。

These are clearly not guaranteed to fail.

它们可能会失败，但并不是注定会失败。

They might fail, but they're not guaranteed to fail.

即使从很长的时间跨度来看，比特币也几乎不可能再回到一千美元的价值。

Even over a very long time horizon, Bitcoin will probably never be worth a thousand dollars ever again.

所以如果你用很小的杠杆投资比特币，只要价格跌破一千美元就会被强平，但这种情况很可能永远都不会发生。

So if you take a very small amount of leverage on Bitcoin, such that you will get margin call if it goes below a thousand dollars, there's a very good chance that that just continues forever.

你实际上就一直保持着杠杆，永远不会被强平，所谓的庞氏骗局也永远不会崩盘。

You have now perpetually taken on leverage, and you will never get margin called and the Ponzi will never collapse.

不过，如果你用高达300%的杠杆，一旦比特币跌到65美元以下，那就全完了。

Now, if you take on the Ponzi quote unquote, if you take on, you know, 300% leverage and if Bitcoin ever goes below 65, it's over.

那样的话，确实非常有可能崩盘。

Then, okay, that's very, very likely to collapse.

如果你看看比特币历史上的价格波动，这无疑是个高风险的玩法。

And if you just look at the historical wall of Bitcoin, like, that's a risky proposition.

但如果你是在比特币五千美元的时候就入手了，它后来也再没回到过一千美元。

But if you took that thing when Bitcoin was at 5 k, Bitcoin never visited a thousand again.

所以我觉得，用‘庞氏骗局’这个词来理解这件事，根本就是错的。

So, you know, it's so I think Ponzi, not Ponzi is just the wrong frame to be thinking about this.

这说法太非黑即白了，也太简单了。

Like, it's kind of too binary or too simplistic.

这些都属于高风险的投资。

These are risky bets.

风险到底有多大，取决于你怎么看待未来的波动性、这些资产的发展趋势，以及需求底部会落在哪里。

The risk is dependent on how you think about the future volatility as well as the future progression of these assets and where the demand floor is going to be on them.

我觉得，如果你现在去看比特币矿机公司，它根本没有任何结构可言。

I think if you look at you know, if you if you look right now at Bitmine, Bitmine has no structure.

它没有负债。

There's no debt.

什么都没有。

There's no anything.

对吧？

Right?

这将是第一个加到Bitmine资本结构上的东西。

This is this would be the first structure that gets added onto Bitmine's capital.

所以很明显，Bitmine根本不是庞氏骗局。

So clearly, is, Bitmine is not a Ponzi.

它不可能是庞氏骗局。

It cannot be a Ponzi.

根本没法逼他们平仓。

There's no way to stop them out.

根本没法给他们追加保证金。

There's no way to margin call them.

它没有任何债务。

There's no debt.

这就像是一个信托基金，你懂的。

So it's just like a trust.

对吧？

You know?

GBTC 是庞氏骗局吗？

Was GBTC a Ponzi?

显然不是。

Obviously not.

它就是一大笔比特币，在公开市场上交易而已。

It's just a big pile of Bitcoin that's trading on, you know, in the public markets.

所以我觉得，实际情况是，这些产品本质上还是在公开市场交易的信托基金。

So I think the reality is that these things are still mostly just trusts that are trading on public markets.

就算你买的是策略，其实你主要买的还是这个。

That's mainly what you're buying, even when you buy strategy.

确实有一些杠杆，但相对于资产负债表来说，杠杆比例非常低。

There's some leverage, but the leverage is very small relative to the balance sheet.

所以本质上，它就是一个根据净资产值上下波动的比特币信托。

So mostly it's a Bitcoin trust that just moves up and down, you know, relative to NAV.

因此我觉得，说它是庞氏骗局，未免太简单化了。

So that's why I think calling it a Ponzi is just kind of too simplistic.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得她大概是抓住了问题的核心，也就是说，基本上这些产品会不会崩盘？

I think she was kind of going for the spirit of the question, which is like, basically, will these things collapse or not?

我也认为，如果你想平衡风险，做到风险效率最大化，站在某种有效前沿上，那么对于迈克尔·塞勒和Strategy公司来说，确实需要出现一些信心不足的时刻，让市场的一部分人真的认为这东西会失败，结果它却没倒。

And I do think like we if you want to balance risk and be efficient at risk and be on some sort of efficient frontier, then for Saylor and Strategy, there needs to be some of these moments where confidence is not at 100% and some of the market actually does think that this is going to fail and then it doesn't fail.

如果你从未经历过这种时刻，即市场的一部分人耸耸肩说“我不想冒这个险”，那你实际上承担的风险还不够。

And if you don't if you never have these moments where part of the market like shrugs off and be like, I don't want this risk, then actually you're not taking enough risk.

这就好比有个黄金区间，如果萨缪尔森能找到那个点，那应该就是杠杆和风险之间那个最高效的平衡点了吧？

Is like there's a Goldilocks zone and if Saylor can I find that think that's actually the efficient frontier of like leverage and risk?

我喜欢这个观点，虽然我没料到你大卫会这么说。

I like this argument although I was not expecting it from you David.

这观点挺有意思的。

Do like this argument.

这就好比说，如果你的女朋友从来不感到紧张，那说明你还没把自己完全投入进去。

It's sort of like if your girl is never a little bit nervous, you're not putting yourself out there enough.

维系一段好的关系，总得有点紧张感才行。

It's like to keep a good relationship, there's gotta

迈克尔·萨勒尔从来都不怕，但他买比特币买得太少了。

be Michael a Saylor little is never scared.

他买比特币买得还不够多。

He's not buying enough Bitcoin.

明白了。

Okay.

对。

Okay.

我并不反对这个观点。

Well, I I I don't reject this theory.

我并不反对这个观点。

I don't reject this theory.

你说得对。

You're right.

这是我其中一个重大问题，我觉得到2027年底就会有答案：这些产品到底本质上是什么？

Which it does I one of my big questions that I think will get answered by the end of twenty twenty seven is like, what what is the nature of these products?

就是那些附带DAT的、类似延伸型的产品？

These, like, stretch like products with DATs appended to them?

在某种程度上，答案取决于背后团队的风险管理能力。

And to some degree, the answer is that is going to depend on the risk management of the team behind them.

没错。

Because Yep.

如果你太过谨慎，那你就不是一个合格的DAT，白白错过了很多机会。

Like if if you if you are overly cautious, well then you're not a very good DAT and you've left margins on the table.

但如果你太冒险，整个系统就可能彻底崩塌。

And if you're too if you're too risky, well then you collapse the whole entire thing.

找到正确的平衡点，并长期保持住，这会是一门艺术，我认为这个问题会在未来26周内逐渐明朗。

But like finding how to have find the correct equilibrium and stay there indefinitely is going to be a little bit of an art that I think that that question will get answered over the next twenty six weeks.

我们喜欢那种有点叛逆的爸爸类型。

We like the bad boy dads.

我们得有点紧张感才行。

We gotta feel a little nervous.

偶尔得让心跳加速一下。

We gotta feel our heart race every once in a while.

不然就太无聊了。

Otherwise, it's too boring.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

交易正在发生变化。

Trading is changing.

不是慢慢来的，就是现在。

Not gradually, right now.

OKX 刚刚在 App 里直接推出了交易机器人。

OKX just launched Trading Bots directly inside the OKX app.

网格交易、定投、套利，你设好策略后，它就全天候自动执行。

Grid trading, DCA, arbitrage, you set your strategy once and it executes around the clock.

不用整天盯着图表，不用手动下单，睡着了也不用担心错过机会。

No staring at charts all day, no manual entries, no missing moves while you're asleep.

这一次，自动化交易真的变得简单了。

And for the first time, automated trading actually feels simple.

但 OKX 的野心不止于交易。

But OKX is thinking bigger than just trading.

他们还推出了代理支付协议，一个开放标准，让 AI 代理可以直接在链上完成完整商业交易。

They also launched the Agent Payments Protocol, an open standard that lets AI agents execute full commercial transactions on chain.

以太坊基金会、Uniswap 和 AWS 都已经在用它了，现在它已经在美国上线。

The Ethereum Foundation, Uniswap, and AWS are already building on it, and now it's live inside The United States.

新用户只要存入并交易，就能通过 Bankless 链接领取最高 500 美元的比特币。

And new users who deposit and trade can get up to $500 in Bitcoin through the bankless link.

更多详情请查看节目笔记中的链接。

The link is in the show notes to learn more.

这不是投资建议。

Not investment advice.

纽约和德克萨斯州无法使用。

Not available in New York or Texas.

有十万美金的奖金等着你。

$100,000 is up for grabs.

MetaMask 和 Ondo 正在 Ondo 交易大赛中送出这笔奖金。

METAMASK and Ondo are giving it away in the Ondo trading competition.

持续五周，分为三个等级。

Five weeks, three tiers.

每个等级中收益率最高的人，拿走最大的奖金。

Whoever earns the best percentage return in each tier wins the biggest cut.

从 260 种由 Ondo 代币化的股票、基金和大宗商品中选择，直接在 MetaMask 里交易，让你的投资组合自己说话。

Pick from 260 Ondo tokenized stocks, funds, and commodities to swap inside MetaMask and let your portfolio do the talking.

如果你觉得自己能赢过所有人，现在到6月18号就是你证明自己的机会。

If you think you can outtrade everyone else, this is your chance to prove it from now until June 18.

点击下方描述里的链接，在MetaMask手机端报名参加。

Click the link in the description below and opt in on MetaMask Mobile.

在手机或电脑上交易现实资产参与竞赛，这不是投资建议。

Trade RWAs on mobile or desktop to compete, not investment advice.

2024年，新兴市场为投资者创造了超过1150亿美元的年收益，收益率在10%到40%之间。

In 2024, emerging markets generated over a $115,000,000,000 in annual yield for investors, with yields ranging between 10 to 40%.

这些是全球最高、最稳定的收益率之一。

These are some of the highest, most persistent yields on earth.

问题出在哪？

The problem?

去中心化金融目前还无法接触到这些机会。

DEFI can't access them.

BRIX改变了这一点。

BRIX changes this.

BRIX 基于 Mega ETH 构建，将新兴市场的货币市场和主权套利转化为可组合的原语，直接通过你的钱包就能使用。

Built on Mega ETH, BRIX takes emerging market money markets and sovereign carry and turns them into composable primitives you can access straight from your wallet.

当 DeFi 投资者在稳定币和国债上只能赚取 3% 到 6% 的收益时，机构早已通过主权货币政策获取了 10% 到 50% 的回报。

While DEFI investors earn three to 6% on stablecoins and T bills, institutions have been harvesting 10 to 50% yields backed by sovereign monetary policy.

BRIX 通过机构级的灰色代币化、本地银行通道、跨司法管辖区的合规体系，以及实时稳定币结算，把这两个世界连接起来。

BRIX connects these worlds with institutional gray tokenization, local banking rails, compliance across jurisdictions, and real time stablecoin settlement.

BRIX 负责处理所有复杂工作，让 DeFi 终于能接触到真实资产，以及基于现实世界收益的金融产品。

BRIX does the heavy lifting so DEFI can finally access real collateral, instruction products on top of real world yield.

即便是最好的套利交易，现在也触手可及。

Even the best carry trades can be within reach.

BRIX 让 DeFi 的愿景走进新兴市场，也让新兴市场的收益直接流入你的钱包。

BRIX brings DEFI's promise to the emerging world and brings the emerging market yield to your wallet.

让收益自由流动，就用 BRIX。

Let the yield flow with BRIX.

有个好消息要分享。

Some exciting news.

我们新开了一个播客，帮大家搞清楚加密货币的周期，以及怎么应对。

We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how to navigate it.

我认识的最厉害的加密周期投资者，叫迈克尔·纳托。

The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael Nato.

他运营着《DeFi报告》。

He runs the DEFI REPORT.

就是他，在10月10日价格暴跌前给我发了卖出提醒。

This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the 10/10 price drop happened.

他对周期的分析一直非常准。

His cycle analysis has been absolutely on point.

我关注他好几年了。

I've been following him for years.

今年我们开始每周录制一期播客。

And this year, we started recording weekly podcast episodes.

每期都会深入聊他的持仓、市场结构、入场点、比特币和以太坊的合理估值，以及我们现在处于周期的哪个阶段。

Each one, we get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure, entry targets, fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether, and where we are in the cycle.

每周三都会更新新一期内容。

There's new episodes that are released every Wednesday.

每期大概三十分钟。

They're thirty minutes.

时长不长。

They're short.

内容紧凑有力。

They're punchy.

我觉得这次加密周期比以往都更难把握，不如我们一起搞清楚。

I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most, so let's do it together.

赶紧去订阅这个播客吧。

Go subscribe to this podcast.

在你常用的平台搜索“DEFI REPORT”，不管是YouTube、Apple还是Spotify，或者直接看节目简介里的链接。

Search the DEFI REPORT wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or find a link in the show notes.

现在就有一期新内容等着你了。

There's a new episode waiting for you now.

好的。

Alright.

明白了。

Okay.

所以，哈西布，这周市场的主要情况就是大币表现疲软。

So Haseeb, the the market this week has just been the story of majors being pretty weak.

比特币这周下跌了13%。

So Bitcoin is down 13% this week.

以太坊这周也跌了12%。

Ether is down 12% this week.

XRP和Solana的情况也差不多。

XRP and Solana are saying the same thing.

但如果你往下看，还是有一些表现不错的代币。

But if you go down market, there are some some good tokens.

有些代币的表现特别出色。

There are tokens that have done exceptionally well.

我不太清楚 Humanity 是什么，但它的涨幅达到了120%。

I don't know what humanity is, but it is up a 120%.

World Coin 这周涨了94%。

World coin is up 94% this week.

Humanity 和 World Coin 非常相似。

Humanity is very similar to World coin.

它通过手掌识别来验证你是真人，有点像掌纹认证。

It's like a palm like proof of human ness through using your palm reading.

明白了。

I see.

明白了。

I see.

好的。

Okay.

所以这周表现最好的，就是这些AI身份认证类的代币。

So then the AI human identity tokens are the winners of the week.

恭喜他们。

Congrats to them.

我们这边轻量级涨了30%，Ethena涨了11%，HyperLiquid涨了10%，Venus涨了9%，Jupiter涨了6%。

We got lighter up 30%, Ethena up 11%, hyper liquid up 10%, Venus up 9%, Jupiter up 6%.

要说以前，不管是上一轮周期还是再之前那轮，比特币和以太坊暴跌的时候，比特币从来没在下跌12%之后还站在200周均线附近。

And so there is never before, if we go back to that cycle or the cycle before that, when Bitcoin and Ether were puking, Bitcoin is at its two hundred week moving average after falling 12%.

以太坊现在比它的200周均线低了30%。

You know, ETH is 30% below its two hundred week moving average.

我从来没见过在同一个星期里，有这么多代币创下历史新高，还表现得这么强势。

Never before have I seen tokens reaching all time highs and having strength in that same week.

你怎么看这个情况？

What do you make of this?

这说明加密市场现在到底是个什么状态？

What does this tell you about the state of crypto?

这说明了几件事。

Well, it says a few things.

首先，这种现象你偶尔见过，但大多出现在骗局币上。

So one, I I think you did sometimes see this, but mostly in scam coins.

值得注意的是，这些其实都是老牌的正规项目，说明市场上正在发生真实的定价过程。

And what's notable is that actually these are pretty legit projects that have been around for a while, and so there's there's there's some real price discovery happening here.

其次，现在有越来越多的代币对比特币价格的依赖没那么强了，这在某种程度上还挺让人意外的。

The second thing, of course, is that there are more and more tokens that are not that exposed to the Bitcoin price, which is, you know, in in some sense is kind of surprising.

对吧？

Right?

拿Hyperliquid来说吧。

So, you know, take take Hyperliquid.

Hyperliquid最近创了新高，虽然之后稍微回落了一点。

Hyperliquid recently hit all time highs, although it's pulled back a little bit.

这周早些时候，它的价格还在七十五左右。

It was in the seventies, mid seventies earlier this week.

但对Hyperliquid来说，这并不奇怪。

And for hyperliquid no.

Hyperliquid 跟比特币价格挂钩，毕竟他们靠加密货币交易赚钱。

Hyperliquid is exposed to Bitcoin price because, you know, they make money trading crypto.

但他们现在的交易量越来越多来自 RWA 交易，也就是现实资产交易。

But more and more of their volume is actually coming from trade x y z, which is trading RWAs.

所以如果你的亮点是 RWA 交易，那比特币跌了又有什么关系呢？

And so if more of your narrative, the reason why people are bullish on you is RWA trading, then who cares if Bitcoin's down?

其他所有东西都在波动，而且都在涨。

Everything else is volatile, and everything else is going up.

所以说，你其实并没有那么依赖比特币的走势。

And so, you know, it's kind of like you're not that exposed to the underlying Bitcoin price.

Venice 也是同样的情况。

Same thing is true for Venice, for example.

Venice 是个加密货币加人工智能的项目。

So Venice is a, you know, crypto AI project.

与其说是加密项目，不如说更偏向人工智能。

More AI than crypto, let's say.

至于Venice，它的价格主要取决于平台上AI代币的需求变化。

And for Venice, you know, their their price largely moves in in comparison to demand for tokens on their platform.

不是加密货币那种代币，是AI代币。

Tokens not being crypto tokens, but AI tokens.

AI代币。

AI tokens.

也就是说

As

当AI代币的需求上升，Venice的收入就会增加，股价也随之上涨。

demand for AI tokens goes up, Venice's revenues increase and Venice goes up.

所以我觉得你看到的是，越来越多的代币正在真正脱离加密货币市场本身，这意味着，不再只是‘所有迷因币都一起涨跌，因为它们都属于同一个加密迷因’了。

So I think there's a what you're seeing is that there's more and more tokens that are actually materially diversified out of the crypto market itself, which means that, you know, it's not just that, oh, well, are all memes and they go up and down together because it's all part of the big crypto meme.

实际情况是，完全不是这么回事。

What you see instead is that, no, no, no.

这个市场其实非常多元化，每种资产的关联标的都不一样。

This market really is quite variegated with respect to what these things have exposure to.

至于Worldcoin，我知道该怎么向你解释它现在的状况。

Now Worldcoin, I know that I can explain to you what's going on there.

看起来像是大家在期待OpenAI上市。

Seems like OpenAI IPO anticipation.

很多人说，这正是推动行情的原因。

That seems to be what people are claiming is causing this.

所以，Worldcoin这波上涨里，可能也掺了点币圈迷因币的味道。

So maybe there's little bit of meme coin ness going on with the Worldcoin rally.

过去几周行情确实剧烈波动，不过不是Worldcoin，是OpenAI。

Obviously, it's been very violent over the last couple of weeks as Worldcoin or sorry, not Worldcoin.

因为OpenAI刚宣布要上市，Anthropic和SpaceX也是一样。

As OpenAI has announced that, you know, they're trying to go public and obviously Anthropic and SpaceX.

所以现在市场上有点联动效应，连带推高了Humanity和Worldcoin。

So there there seems to be a bit of an affinity trade going on there and maybe humanity alongside Worldcoin.

还有那个排第四的Binance Life，根本就是币安自家的迷因币。

And then, of course, these, Binance Life, which is the number four there, is literally a Binance Meme Coin.

除此之外，我就真说不上来这列表里还有啥别的动向了。

So, beyond that, I can't I can't tell you what else is going on in this list.

挺好的，至少我关注的这些代币——Hyperliquid、Venice、Near、Lighter 和 Zcash——表现都不错。

It is nice to see that the at least the tokens that I'm focused on, which is Hyperliquid, Venice, Near, Lighter, and Zcash.

其中 Zcash 回调得最明显，我觉得。

Zcash, I think, has pulled back perhaps perhaps the most out of all of those.

它不是靠收入驱动的，更像是跟比特币绑定在一起，因为它的总量也是两千一百万枚。

And that is the one that is not revenue driven, that is more of just like medically paired with Bitcoin because it's the same same thing, 21,000,000 units.

但其他那些代币都是有实际收入的。

But like all the other ones are revenue driven.

所以某种程度上，我觉得整个行业正在变得更成熟。

And so so to some degree, I'm seeing the industry is just being mature.

现在有代币能赚钱了，不管是美元计价，还是像 Near 这种以自身代币计价的收入，只要能赚钱，就不容易被比特币和整个市场拖着走。

We have tokens that make money, and if you are making money, revenue, even dollar denominated or in nearest case, near denominated, if you are making money, you get to be not dragged down by Bitcoin and the rest of the market.

在我看来，这正是成熟的标志。

To me, it's a it's a sign of maturity.

我部分同意这个观点。

I agree with that in part.

你看，如果不是永续合约交易所，DeFi 现在简直被暴打。

I mean, look, DEFI is getting hammered if it's not a perp dex.

对吧？

Right?

确实如此。

So Yeah.

并不是所有情况都像说的那样，只要能赚钱就能逃过一劫。

It's it's not true across the board that, okay, well, revenue will save you.

很多 DeFi 项目确实有收入，但估值倍数正在被压缩。

A lot of things in DEFI make revenue, but the multiples are getting compressed.

而且，它们的收入都是以加密货币计价的。

And, of course, their revenues are denominated in crypto.

所以当加密市场下跌时，即使它们的收入还没反映出来，未来也预期会下滑。

So as crypto goes down, their revenues are expected to go down in the future even if they haven't gone down yet.

所以我觉得这个情况有点复杂。

So I think the story is a little bit complicated.

而且你看，Near 今天跌得很惨。

And, you know, Near got hammered today.

所以 Near 现在是下跌的。

So Near is down.

它可以说是今天跌幅最大的资产之一。

It's like what I think one of the most down assets today.

所以这事儿确实没那么简单。

So so it is it is a more complicated story.

我觉得部分原因在于，AI 相关代币表现不错，因为整个市场都被 AI 领域的动态吸引住了。

I think part of it is also that, you know, AI tokens are doing well because the entire market is, you know, captivated by what's happening in in the AI world.

不过我基本同意你的看法，另外我也得说明一下，我们其实投资了你提到的大多数资产。

But I I I largely agree with you, and and I I should also note we're investors in most of the assets that you mentioned.

所以是的。

So Yeah.

我很欣慰看到有一些不错的项目能在市场动荡时挺过来，还能保持不错的价格上涨。

I'm grateful to see that there are some good projects that are weathering the storm and are able to have decent, you know, price expansion during times when broader crypto market is under threat.

但这可能意味着什么，现在还不好说，不过很可能它们在上涨时的动能并不一致。

But what what that may well mean also, it's it's too early to say, but it what would it may well mean is that they don't necessarily share the same velocity on the upside.

我看到很多人说，你看现在Hyperliquid的表现怎么样。

I've seen a lot of people saying like, oh, well, you know, this is how Hyperliquid's doing now.

想象一下，当比特币涨到十万美金的时候，他们会是什么样子。

Just imagine how they're going to do when Bitcoin is at Right.

也许人们实际上是在根据收入来给Hyperliquid定价。

100 ks And it may well be that actually people are pricing Hyperliquid on revenues.

如果真是按收入来定价，那收入并不会因为比特币价格上涨就翻倍，毕竟他们的收入大部分来自RWA。

And if they're pricing Hyperliquid on revenues, if the revenues don't I mean, you know, it's not that likely that revenues are gonna double just because the Bitcoin price goes up because so much of their revenue is coming from RWAs.

所以，如果真是这样——当然也可能不是，现在还不确定，咱们走着瞧。

So, if that is true, may not be true, you know, TBD, let's see.

但如果真是这样，你可能会发现，真正的加密货币beta其实被隔离在那些更原生的项目里，而那些有明确收入和增长引擎、不依赖比特币基本面的非原生资产，反而不受影响。

But if that is true, then what you may see is that actually the crypto beta really is actually side you know, sort of cordoned off to these assets that are more crypto native and the less crypto native assets that really have identifiable, revenues and and sort of growth engines that aren't tied to the fundamental Bitcoin price.

它们在上涨过程中也抓不住多少加密货币的收益。

They just don't capture as much crypto made on the way up either.

你刚才是不是说 Haseeb 把 BTC 的高点当成了炒作顶？

Did you just call a hype BTC top, Haseeb?

我没有。

I did not.

我根本没说 Haseeb 把 BTC 的高点当成了炒作顶。

I didn't I did not call a hype BTC top.

我只是想说，市场太复杂了。

Just pointing out that markets are complicated.

我只是想说，市场太复杂了。

Just pointing out that markets are complicated.

好吧。

Alright.

咱们聊聊 U 吧。

Let's get into to U.

现货。

S.

永续合约。

Perps.

上周，商品期货交易委员会公布了两件大事。

The CFTC this last week announced two pretty big things.

首先，它向Calci颁发了美国首个比特币永续期货合约的牌照。

First, it gave a license to Calci for the first Bitcoin perpetual futures contract inside The United States.

同时，该机构还向Coinbase发出了不采取行动函，允许其用户接入另一个永续合约平台，Coinbase只负责提供通道服务。

At the same time, the agency also gave a no action letter to Coinbase allowing them to connect to their customers to a perp platform, a different perp platform so they get to be the pipes.

这标志着美国本土的永续合约市场正式开放了。

And this kind of signals the opening of the gates, the cutting of the ribbon to onshore U.

现货。

S.

永续合约。

Perps.

这也在一定程度上解释了为什么这周市场情绪这么高涨，Lighter也是同样的情况——大家对永续合约市场整体都越来越兴奋。

And this is part of partly why I think hype did so well this week, same thing with lighter, is like people are just getting really excited about the perps market broadly.

尤其是当这么多平台，比如POLYMARKET、CALSHI、Coinbase、Robinhood、Lighter，光是想到的这些就已经不少了，都急着想进入美国的永续合约市场。

And especially when so many platforms, POLYMARKET, CALSHI, Coinbase, Robinhood, Lighter, or just to name the handful that come to mind, are all just like chomping at the bit to get access to The United States, perps market.

除了我一直在收集的那些故事，比如DATs的股权收益工具之外，我觉得下一个大热点会是美国市场接下来的发展。

I think in in addition to the stories that I'm collecting, what are the equity yield instruments of the DATs, I think the next big story is what happens with The U.

S.

S.

今年剩下的时间，还有2027年，美国的永续合约市场会怎么走。

Perp market for the rest of this year and for 2027.

Haseeb，你看到这个消息的时候是什么反应？

What was your reaction, Haseeb, when you saw this?

我可能在这里是少数派。

I I might be in the minority here.

我对美国本土的永续合约故事其实有点保留意见。

I'm actually somewhat skeptical on the domestic perps story.

我觉得有几点要说。

I so a few things, I think.

首先，普通投资者还没进场。

One, retail's not here.

如果普通投资者不参与，那我们在国内推出永续合约到底有什么意义呢？

And when retail's not here, it's kind of like, okay, well, if retail's not trading this stuff, then what does it really matter that we offer perps domestically?

现在根本没人急着找杠杆工具来交易加密货币。

It's not like people are, like, dying to find leverage ways to trade crypto right now.

所以这感觉就像是……

So it's it sort of feels like

是现实世界资产。

It's real world assets.

没错。

That's true.

确实如此。

True.

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yes.

所以如果你在谈真实资产的永续合约，那确实如此。

And so if you're talking about perps on real world assets, so one Yeah.

商品期货交易委员会明确表示，他们不鼓励人们为股权工具或证券申请永续合约。

CFTC has explicitly said that they are not encouraging people to apply with perps for equity instruments or for securities.

他们特别指出，永续合约在加密货币上非常合适，效果很好。

So they say, particularly, perps are really appropriate for crypto, works great.

但用在股票上就不合适，农产品也不合适。

Not appropriate for equities, not appropriate for ag products.

为什么不行？

Why not?

我想，农产品之所以不行，是因为农业行业在背后掌控着一切。

I mean, presumably ag products because, you know, the ag industry kind of controls everything behind the behind the scenes.

还有，关于这些规则，我之前发过一条推文，讲的是Call She把农产品相关的交易在周末和晚上8点后全部关闭了，而其他所有合约都没这限制，就是因为农业界投诉得太厉害了。

And then for, there, there are all these rules around, you know, there was a story that I tweeted about where, Call She, they restricted their agriculture related markets to not be tradable on weekends and after 8PM, unlike every other contract on call sheet, just because the ag industry complained so much.

我不太明白为什么农业界这么反感周末，或者价格发现机制，但对他们来说，洋葱期货晚上8点后不能有价格发现，这事儿特别重要。

So there's I I don't totally understand why ag hates weekends or, you know, price discovery or whatever, but it's very important to them that, you know, onion futures have no price discovery after 8PM.

至于股票市场，对CFTC来说，原因再明显不过了——他们背后有大量利益相关方，而且这些大玩家能优先入场。

But for equities, I think for the CFTC, it's like very obvious is that they have really, really large stakeholders of a very strong vested interest that they get to go first.

如果你是CME，或者CBO，你肯定不希望那些加密圈的散户跑进来，搞出些全新的金融产品，24小时、周末不停交易，还给普通投资者随便加杠杆。

So if you're the CME, if you're CBO, you do not want some, you know, some crypto bros going in and saying, great, I get to create totally new financial instruments that trade twenty four seven and on the weekends and give arbitrary amounts of of leverage to retail traders.

这种事根本不可能发生。

That is not happening.

尽管这个政府对加密货币挺友好的，但一旦你打算推出股票类衍生品，你就得跟最大的玩家玩最硬的游戏。

That despite how crypto friendly this administration is, you are playing the biggest game with the biggest boys when you enter into, okay, I'm gonna offer derivatives on equities.

目前确实有一些产品在考虑中，但大多数这类产品，美国普通投资者根本接触不到。

So we've seen, some products being contemplated right now, but, like, most of these products are not available to U.

美国。

S.

客户。

Customers.

对吧？

Right?

这里推出的比特币永续合约显然非常普通，因为CFTC的态度是：你想推比特币永续合约？行吧。

The BTC perp, which was offered here, is obviously very vanilla because the CFTC is kinda like, look, if you wanna offer perps on Bitcoin, whatever.

能有多大的风险呢？

What's gonna you know, what's the worst that could happen?

这不就是比特币吗？

It's already Bitcoin.

你懂的。

You know?

这属于加密货币。

It's a crypto.

价格涨涨跌跌，很正常。

It goes up and down, whatever.

但他们不希望现实世界的资产被随意推出这些衍生品，原因在于农业界一贯的说法是：万一价格被操纵怎么办？

But the the reason why they do not want these these derivatives to be issued willy nilly on real world, assets is the argument that the ag industry always makes is that, look, what if the prices get manipulated?

结果我的生意就垮了，比如石油期货或者洋葱期货的价格突然变成这样那样，我的收益全乱了，连下一季的播种都搞不了，诸如此类的问题。

And then it breaks my business that oil future or onion futures are now priced at blah, blah, blah, and it breaks my yield, and now I can't plant the season and whatever.

这些事情我也不太懂，但大概就是这类情况。

I don't know, all sorts of stuff like this that I probably don't understand.

但这些价格对整个系统的运作至关重要。

But these prices are very important inputs into how all these systems work.

如果这些价格被投机行为随意推高拉低，波动性就会远超实际市场，这对实体经济的企业来说非常不利。

And if these prices are just yielded arbitrary amounts of speculation, then there's much more volatility than underlying markets, and that's bad for real world businesses.

所以，我猜CFTC要是拒绝某人说‘我想推出50倍SpaceX的永续合约’，理由大概就是这个。

So that's the claim that I presume the CFTC would be making if they reject somebody who says, hey, I want to offer, you know, 50 x SpaceX perps.

他们会说：SpaceX确实是正经企业，但不行，你不能这么干。

This is like, well, SpaceX is a real business, and, like, no, you can't do that.

也许将来他们会给出关于股票类永续合约的指引，但目前来看，他们显然还没准备好做这件事。

Maybe eventually they will offer guidance about how to do equity perps, but it's very clear right now they're not ready to do that yet.

目前他们只提供加密货币永续合约。

Right now they're only offering crypto perps.

我周一要和CFTC的迈克·西利谈话，到时候我会直接问他这些问题。

I'm talking to, Mike Sealy from the CFTC on Monday, so I will be asking him exactly some of these questions.

这太好了，我真的不是律师。

This is great, great, I'm not a lawyer.

我可能完全理解错了，但这是我根据所读内容得出的看法。

I might be totally off on this, but this is my understanding from what I've read.

说得通。

It it checks out.

我听你的意思，是说有人从根本上看好永续合约这个工具，对吧？

What what I'm hearing you say is is there there are people who are just fundamentally bullish the perpetual as in

对。

Yes.

就是这个工具。

The instrument.

你别以为你也在支持这个观点，这可不是你的意思。

And don't think you are perhaps also thumbs up on that, that's not what you're saying.

你的意思是，这跟传统银行和加密货币在稳定币收益上的博弈很像——老牌机构只想守住自己最大的那块蛋糕。

What you are saying is something very akin to the banks versus crypto with regards to stablecoin yields where the incumbents just wanna make sure that they retain their biggest piece of the pie.

可能是CME，也可能是那些已经提供永续合约的老牌平台。

Maybe it's the CME, maybe it's the existing incumbents that actually offer perps.

也许他们会把永续合约做到24小时、7天、365天不停歇，因为这玩意儿实在太棒了。

Maybe they go 20 fourseventhree sixty five with perpetuals because the perpetuals are such a fantastic instrument.

但最终干这事的还是他们，现状就是现状，我们看不到Coinbase这样的公司进来，去交易原油期货永续合约并主导市场。

But they're just gonna be the ones to do it, and the status quo is the status quo, and we're not going to see, like, Coinbase coming in and to trading oil futures on perpetuals and that dominate the market.

Coinbase绝不可能第一个冲进去，任何初创公司都不可能，Hyperliquid US也不可能。

There is no way that Coinbase goes first or that some startup goes first, right, or the hyper liquid US goes first.

根本不可能会是这么个发展路径。

Like, there's just absolutely no way that that's how it happens.

就是因为现有玩家的主导地位。

Just because of incumbency

权力。

power.

没错。

Absolutely.

我们总说加密货币有个组织严密的游说团体，但你想想，这跟股票市场和商品市场的规模根本没法比，那才是真正的庞然大物。

I mean, we we, you we talk about, oh, you know, crypto is such an organized lobby and so on, but, like, you're again, this is a different scale than what we're you know, the the the scale of the equity markets and the scale of the commodities markets are much, much, much, much, much larger than the scale of the crypto markets.

让加密圈的人自己内斗、加杠杆做多、疯一把，对CFTC来说反而是个不错的试验场——你看，这事儿挺安全。

So letting crypto bros go and beat up on each other and, you know, go get levered long and kinda go go crazy, it's a great sandbox from the perspective of the CFTC to say, hey.

咱们可以在国内先推出这些产品。

Let's offer these products domestically.

再好好监控起来。

Let's surveil them.

好好管理起来。

Let's manage them.

当然，这些都得经过完整的KYC审核。

Of course, these are fully KYCed.

CFTC会监控所有这些市场，一旦发现异常行为，就能直接调取相关用户的交易记录。

CFTC surveils all these markets and can basically pull records on people if they see weird stuff happening.

这些可不是那种超高流动性、随便开个私钥钱包就疯狂梭哈的市场。

Like, these are not hyper liquid style, you know, load up a privy wallet and just go ham.

这些都是受美国监管的DCM和DCO平台，CFTC会严密监控它们是否存在违规操作。

These are US regulated, you know, DCM, DCO platforms that are are going to be, very closely monitored by the CFTC for malfeasance.

他们之所以想推动这些市场，就是为了把这类交易活动拉回国内，置于美国监管机构的严密监督之下。

That's why they want these markets is they want to bring this activity onshore and under the the watchful eye of US regulators.

所以从纯粹的交易量和收入预期来看，就算Coinbase、Haseeb、PolyMarket这些平台真在美国本土上线产品，我依然觉得大部分交易量还是会留在境外。

So I I think on a just absolute basis in terms of where I expect the trading volume and where I expect the revenues to be, I think in a world where you see Coinbase and Haseeb and POLYMARKET and all these guys, to the extent they do launch onshore products, I expect that actually most of volume will still remain offshore.

等等。

Go wait.

你再详细说说这一点。

Well, go into that a little bit more.

比如，假设CallSheet、PolyMarket、Lighter这些平台真的在美国上线了比特币、以太坊、VVV这些加密货币交易产品，你还是觉得主要的交易会发生在境外吗？

So, like, imagine CallSheet, POLYMARKET, Lighter, they launch onshore Bitcoin, Ether, VVV, near all of the crypto tokens that crypto people love love to to trade, you still think that the dominant trading venues will be offshore?

我确实这么认为。

I I do.

让我给你做个思想实验。

So let let me let me just give you a thought experiment.

明白吗？

Okay?

现在确实有一些交易所愿意接受美国用户，它们的KYC要求很松甚至没有。

There are today some exchanges that will take Americans that are like sort of no to low KYC exchanges.

对吧？

Right?

这些平台有点灰色地带。

They're they're kind of shady.

它们不是那种顶尖的大交易所，但你要是去翻交易所列表，挑个第10名、第12名的，试着注册个账号，作为美国人还是有很大机会能成功的。

They're not the, you know, not the the really biggest ones, but you can sort of, you know, you can put in my mind, you know, go to the exchange list, go to like number 10, number 12, and go try to make an account there and decent chance you can figure out how to do it as an American.

对吧？

Right?

这些大部分都是中国之类的平台。

And these are mostly, you know, Chinese or whatever.

它们在海外，比如塞舌尔之类的地方，但照样收你的钱。

They're somewhere overseas, and they're they're in, you know, Seychelles or something, and these exchanges will take your money.

明白吗？

Okay?

你上这些平台，作为美国人也能买永续合约。

You go on these exchanges, you can you can go buy perps as an American.

它们都不是大平台。

They are not big exchanges.

其实没多少人会专门跑去这些平台频繁交易永续合约。

There's not an enormous amount of demand for people to just go and sling around perps on all these products.

如果Coinbase的用户真能接触到永续合约，那其实币价下跌的一个重要原因就是，大家买加密货币的意愿没那么强了。

And to the extent that we if people on Coinbase can get access to perps, the reality is that the you know, part of the reason why Coinbase stock is down and Robinhood stock is down is that people just aren't buying as much crypto.

我觉得很大一部分资金是从现货市场转移到了衍生品市场，毕竟说到底，人们能投入的钱就那么多。

And I think there's probably a a large part of displacement from the spot markets into the derivatives markets because look, people at a certain extent, they're only buying, know, they're only depositing so much money.

现在做永续合约，你可以用更高的杠杆，但这些产品都受美国监管。

Now with perps, you can take all the more leverage, but these products are U.

美国。

S.

这意味着它们不会提供50倍的杠杆。

Regulated, which means they're not offering 50x leverage.

可能连20倍都不会给，美国大多数产品对散户的杠杆都特别低。

They're probably not even offering 20x leverage, Most products in The U.

美国。

S.

对普通交易者来说，美国市场的杠杆率普遍很低。

Offer very low amounts of leverage to retail traders.

我觉得那种以为Hyper Liquid上的高杠杆会普及到每个美国人的想法，很可能不会成真。

I think the fantasy that we have that what you see on hyper liquid is going to become available to every American is probably not the experience that we're going to get.

当然，也可能我错了，随着市场发展、这些产品被更多人理解、推广得更好，尤其是如果开始面向机构开放，情况可能会变。

Look, could be wrong, I think this changes as the market evolves and as these products become better understood and they get better marketed, and especially if they start being offered to institutions.

我觉得机构可能会被永续合约市场吸引，从而减少对期货和期权等产品的需求。

I think there's an argument that institutions might be drawn to the perps market and that this displaces some of the demand for futures and for options and so on.

但说到底，认为推出国内永续合约就能带来山寨币或加密货币需求的爆发，我觉得有点不切实际。

But I think at the end the day, the idea that launching domestic perps is gonna result in this renaissance of demand for altcoins or for crypto, I I think is a bit of a fantasy.

所以，这些产品很快就会出现，说不定现在已经有。

So look, we're gonna see these products soon, if not already.

你知道吗，这些产品其实已经获批了。

You know, these products have already been approved.

我不太确定它们是不是已经上线交易了。

I don't actually know if they're live and trading.

你知道吗？

Do you know that?

还没呢。

They're not.

还没呢。

They're not.

还没上线。

They're not.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

根本没法交易。

There's there's no way to trade.

没错。

Right.

我预测，等这些永续合约在国内上线后，比特币价格不会有什么明显波动。

I would predict that you don't actually see the Bitcoin price move very much once these perps launch domestically.

如果我猜错了，那你就知道原因了。

Now, if I'm wrong, that's how you'll know.

到时候你就明白我错了——因为比特币突然涌进大量新增需求，美国买家的买入压力大得惊人。

You'll know that I'm wrong about this thesis because, wow, Bitcoin's so much incremental demand, so much buying pressure that we're seeing now from Americans.

但我猜，一旦美国的永续合约上线，价格其实也不会有太大波动。

But my guess is that we're actually not gonna see much movement once U.

美国。

S.

永续合约上线后。

Perps go live.

对。

Yeah.

我同意，目前确实没什么能推动比特币价格变动的因素。

I I I would agree that that's actually there's not really much that will move Bitcoin price right now.

我们只是得先熬过这段阵痛期，不过那是另一个话题了。

Like we kind of just need to get through some pain, but that is a separate topic and a separate issue.

我觉得更看涨的观点是，永续合约会慢慢渗透，逐渐被边缘用户接受，等到2028年，人们又觉得比特币很酷，以太坊也重新流行起来，然后他们重新回到Coinbase，发现那里有个前所未有的滑点机制。

I think the the more bull case is that like perps, they they grow, they penetrate, they get adopted like marginally at the margins, and then in like 2028 people think Bitcoin is cool again, people think ETH is cool again, and then and then they go back to Coinbase and there's this sick slider mechanism that they've never seen before.

然后他们会说：哦，原来在这儿。

And they're like, oh, hi.

什么？

What?

我在这儿能做什么？

What can I do here?

然后市场就开始狂飙，这就是 euphoria 的由来——因为如果人们在周期早期就进场，而不是等到后期，就会有很多人赚钱，事情也会迅速传播开来，最终形成泡沫顶峰。

And then it's a little bit off to the races, and that's how you get Euphoria because it's going to work when people do that early in the cycle rather than late and then a lot of people are gonna make money and it's gonna go viral and then that's how you get the blow off top.

这似乎和我们过去见过的周期模式很吻合。

That seems to kind of fit the pattern match the cycles that we've seen in the past.

是的。

Yes.

我觉得这个说法挺有道理的，虽然不能说完全准确。

I I think that's a that's an accurate well, not accurate.

这确实是一个合理的推测，说明事情可能会怎么发展。

It's it's a plausible picture of how it might go.

还有一点别忘了，我们当初为什么要发明永续合约呢？

The other thing to the other thing to remember too is, like, why did we invent perps at all?