本集简介
双语字幕
仅展示文本字幕，不包含中文音频；想边听边看，请使用 Bayt 播客 App。
现在是三月了，大卫。
It is the March, David.
他们真的做到了。
They actually did it.
SEC和CFTC刚刚发布了一项绝对具有历史意义的举措。
The SEC and the CFTC just dropped something that is absolutely historic.
这是他们出台的一项规则制定，给了我们一直所要求的东西——一些明确性。
This is rulemaking coming from them that gives us the thing we've always asked for, which is some clarity.
明确告诉我们加密货币中哪些资产是证券，哪些不是，并且他们真的直接点名了。
Tell us which assets are securities and which aren't in crypto, and they're actually doing that by name.
我认为这是我在加密货币监管领域见过的最重要的事件之一。
I think this is, one of the biggest things I've actually ever seen on the regulatory front happen in crypto.
极其看涨。
Insanely bullish.
今天我们来谈谈这项规则制定。
We'll talk about this rulemaking today.
他们直接说明了哪些代币是商品，哪些不是证券。
They just went out and just said which tokens are commodities and which are not securities.
基本上，没有任何东西是证券。
Basically, nothing is a security.
是的。
Yeah.
根斯勒说这不可能做到。
Gensler said it couldn't be done.
但他们做到了。
They did it.
没错。
He yeah.
结果发现，你完全可以直接说它们都是商品。
They they it turns out you can just say they're all commodities.
没有任何东西能阻止这一点。
There's nothing stopping that.
不过，假设放眼宏观市场，全球所有市场仍受霍尔木兹海峡的影响，但加密市场是否在逆流而上？
Assuming out to the macro markets though, the all global markets still remain downstream of the Strait Of Hormuz, but the crypto markets swimming against the current?
哇。
Wow.
真的很喜欢这个说法。
Really like this.
你喜欢这个吗？
You like this?
是的。
Yeah.
我喜欢这个比喻。
I like this analogy.
是的。
Yeah.
加密市场可能正在发生一场范式转变，或者说是一次制度变革。
There might be a regime shift underway in a regime change, if you will, in the crypto market.
有些人说会有一些，但其他人认为我们只是在进入长期熊市前经历了一次反弹。
Some say there is going to be some, but others say that we are simply in a relief rally before we go into a prolonged bear market.
我们会呈现双方的观点。
We're gonna give both sides of the arguments.
是的。
Yeah.
双方的观点我都了解，但我已经表明了我的立场。
Both sides of argument, but I got my cards on the table on that one.
我觉得其中一方更正确。
I I feel like one is more right than the other.
另外，Tempo 这周上线了主网，似乎正在发生一场关于代理支付的竞争。
Also, Tempo went main net this week, and there seems to be at least battle for agentic payments that's underway.
现在有两种竞争标准，一个是 Tempo，另一个是类似 Stripe 推出的名为 MPP 的东西，看起来像是
There's two competing standards now with with Tempo and almost kinda Stripe launching something called MPP, which looks like
一个竞争对手。
a competitor.
是Stripe还是Tempo对Coinbase。
Versus Stripe or Tempo versus Coinbase.
是的。
Yeah.
Tempo和Stripe有MPP，而Coinbase可能在另一边推出x402。
Tempo and Stripe with MPP, and then Coinbase maybe on the other side with x four zero two.
我们打算拆解一下，看看是否存在真正的竞争。
We're gonna try to unpack that to see if there's really some rivalry.
另外，这周是加密货币的文化周。
Also, it's culture week for crypto.
我们登上了《名利场》。
We made Vanity Fair.
有一张照片在推特上疯传。
There's a photo that was all over Twitter.
我们会聊聊那张照片。
We'll talk about that photo.
还有，大卫，你听说了吗？SBF的故事即将登陆Netflix？
And, did you know, David, the SBF story is officially coming to Netflix?
一共八集。
This is eight episodes.
当然，问题是，谁来演萨姆？
And the question, of course, is who's gonna play Sam?
谁来演卡罗琳？
Who's gonna play Caroline?
他们没找我们。
They didn't call us.
你会看吗？
Are you gonna watch it?
你会看吗？
Are you gonna watch it?
我肯定会看这个。
I'm definitely watching this.
你开玩笑吧？
Are you kidding me?
我要等你看了之后，你就会明白
I'm gonna wait for you to watch it, and then you will see
看这个？
watch this?
我正在为最高级别的尴尬做准备。
I don't I'm I'm preparing for a max level of cringe.
不是针对这部剧。
Not at the show.
也许剧本身很棒，但作为一个对这一切了解太多的加密人士，我觉得你们搞错了。
Maybe the show is amazing, but, like, me as a crypto person who knows too much about all that, I just don't it's just like I'm just like, you guys got that wrong.
比如，扮演卡罗琳和SBF的演员都长得太帅了，和他们现实中的原型完全不一样。
Like, both Caroline and SBF, the actors are just way too pretty versus what their real life counterparts are.
不管怎样，我们一会儿会深入讨论这些还有更多内容，但首先，我们要和一些朋友及赞助商聊聊，首先是Figure。
Anyways, we're gonna get into all of this and more, but first, we're gonna talk to some of our friends and sponsors starting with Figure.
美国最大的非银行房屋净值信贷额度（HELOC）贷款机构，正在将机构级去中心化金融带给大众。
The number one nonbank HELOC lender in The United States is bringing institutional grade DeFi to the masses.
他们提供以加密货币为抵押的贷款，利率接近9%，贷款价值比（LTV）为50%，你的比特币将存放在隔离的MPC托管中。
They have crypto backed loans offering at almost 9% at 50% LTV with your Bitcoin held segregated MPC custody.
不是 pooled，也不是 hypothecated。
Not pooled, not hypothecated.
他们还为波动性市场提供违约保护。
They also give you liquidation protection for volatile markets.
但Bankless听众熟知的亮点是普惠型优质资产。
But the cool thing that bankless listeners know about is democratized prime.
因此，不再是华尔街为人们的房屋净值贷款提供资金，而是你可以为人们的房屋净值贷款提供资金。
So instead of Wall Street financing people's home equity loans, you can finance people's home equity loans.
有一个代币。
There's a token.
它叫做YLDS。
It's called YLDS.
这是首个经美国证券交易委员会注册的收益型稳定币。
It is the first SEC registered yield bearing stable coin.
你可以将这个代币借入Figure的贷款池中，获得高达9%的收益率，收益由真实抵押贷款或加密货币抵押贷款支持。
You take that token, you lend it into Figure's loan pools for a total of 9% yield backed 9% backed yield backed by real mortgages or crypto collateralized loans.
如果这些内容对你有吸引力，请访问bankless.cc/figure来获取这9%的收益。
If any of this is interesting to you, bankless.cc/ figure to go get that 9%.
这就像大卫的反向DeFi莫西干发型吗？前面是DeFi，后面是传统金融？
Is this like the reverse DeFi mullet David where you got, you know, some DeFi in the front and TradFi in the back?
这是这个吗？
Is this this?
那是什么？
What is that?
谢谢，法格。
Thank you, Fanger.
什么是
What is a
反向莫西干头？
reverse mullet?
我们来聊聊市场现在的情况吧。
Let's talk about the what's going on in markets.
让我们把视野放得更广一些。
So broaden our horizons here.
嗯。
Mhmm.
石油似乎仍然是焦点。
It still feels like oil is the star of the show.
正如你所说，石油市场可能一切都在暂停，人们正试图弄清楚战争的情况，以及霍尔木兹海峡发生了什么。
As you said, oil markets and maybe everything on pause, like trying to figure out what's going on with the war, what's going on in the Strait Of Hormuz.
大卫，能更新一下目前的情况吗？
Update us what is going on, David?
是的。
Yeah.
这周我们已经进入伊朗战争的第19天。
So we are nineteen days into the Iranian war this week.
事情之前还算顺利。
Things were kind of going smoothly ish.
似乎我们快要看到战争的尾声了。
It seems like we could start to see the end of the war.
局势开始趋于稳定。
Things are starting to stabilize.
但随后以色列对伊朗南帕尔斯气田的一个石油设施发动了袭击，一切突然崩溃了。
And then it all fell apart with an Israeli strike on an Iranian oil facility in the South Pars gas field.
我肯定每个人都知道南帕尔斯之前的位置。
I'm sure everyone knows exactly where South Pars was before this week.
地图上这里就是。
Here it is on a map.
我看到了。
I see it.
不过看起来它位于一片水域的中央。
It looks like it's in the middle of some water though.
它确实位于水域中央。
It is in the middle of the water.
这些是位于海洋中央的设施。
These are like structures that are in the middle of the ocean.
海洋？那是海洋吗？
Ocean is that an ocean?
波斯湾，然后下面有一个油田。
The Persian the Persian Gulf, and then there's an oil field down there.
以色列袭击了那里，摧毁了伊朗油田的部分产能。
Israel struck it, taking down some of the capacity of the Iranian oil field there.
因此，我们看到了不同地区油价的分化。
And then as a result, we have seen a divergence in oil prices based off of where you are.
布伦特原油，主要来自波斯湾的原油，价格从每桶102美元飙升至112美元。
So Brent crude, which is the oil that predominantly comes out of the Persian Gulf, spiked from a $102 to a $112.
这也是我之前没提到的：作为对以色列袭击伊朗石油设施的回应，伊朗袭击了卡塔尔的石油设施。
This is also what I what I left out is in response to this Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, there was an Iranian strike on Qatari oil facilities in response.
所以伊朗的意思是：你们敢袭击我们？
So Iran was like, you guys are gonna strike us?
那我们就找个理由去袭击卡塔尔。
We're gonna strike Qatar for some reason.
好吧。
Okay.
这会把卡塔尔牵扯进来。
It was gonna bring Qatar into the mix.
因此，除了霍尔木兹海峡关闭的影响外，该地区由于各方相互袭击，石油产量正受到限制。
And so as a result, oil production in a separate from how the Strait Of Hormuz is closed, oil production in the region is getting constrained just by people striking each other.
这导致了价格上涨，正是这种价格上涨。
So that's causing price to spike in That's causing price.
布伦特原油。
Brent crude oil.
好的。
Okay.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
我不知道布伦特原油是什么，它和其他类型的原油有什么区别？
I didn't know what Brent what is Brent crude oil and how does that compare to other types of crude oil?
是的。
Yeah.
布伦特原油特指原油，虽然不完全专属，但当你查看布伦特原油价格时，你主要看到的是从中东、波斯湾地区出产的原油价格。
So Brent Brent crude is just specifically the oil not it's not exclusively this, but if you are looking at the Brent crude price, you are largely seeing the price of oil that comes out of the Middle East out of the Persian Gulf.
这种原油主要由亚洲和欧盟消费。
This oil is consumed by Asia and The EU predominantly.
你还有WTI，即西德克萨斯中质原油。
You also have, WTI West Texas Intermediate.
这基本上代表了北美原油市场。
That's kind of the North American oil market.
通常，布伦特原油和WTI原油的价格会相互影响，因为石油市场是全球性的。
Typically, Brent and WTI, they trade around each other because oil markets are global.
如果有人能以低价买入石油，然后在别处以高价卖出，他们就会这么做。
If somebody can buy cheap oil and sell it at a higher price somewhere else, they will.
一般来说，它们的流动性都很强。
They're pretty liquid generally.
对吧？
Right?
它们的可替代性也很高。
Pretty pretty fungible.
但也会出现差异。
There is a divergence.
通常，WTI和布伦特原油的价格差在每桶2到5美元左右。
You usually, the spread between WI and Brent is about 2 to $5 a barrel.
嗯。
Mhmm.
现在，价差达到了17美元。
Right now, it's clocking in at $17.
所以这个价差
And so that spread
价差是17美元。
The divergence is $17.
确实是17美元。
Is is $17.
这意味着布伦特原油比北美WTI贵了70美元。
So it says, Brent is $70 more expensive than North American WTI.
好的。
Okay.
这说明北美石油市场相当独立。
And that's just telling you the more North American oil market is just insulated.
就像是加拿大的石油。
It's like it's the oil from Canada.
这是在美国本土生产的石油。
It's the oil produced here in United States.
这是来自拉美国家的石油。
It's oil from Latam countries.
这些都与霍尔木兹海峡或所有冲突无关，因此你看到的是WTI市场所体现的稳定性溢价，以及来自霍尔木兹海峡的不稳定性所带来的价格影响。
None of that is relevant to the Strait Of Hormuz or all the the conflict, and so you're seeing the price of stability in the WTI market, and you're seeing the price of instability coming out of the Strait Of Hormuz here.
好的。
Okay.
而现货布伦特原油价格曾飙升至接近116美元。
And the the spot spot Brent crude oil, that shot up as high as almost a $116.
现在大概是109美元左右？
Now it's 109 or so?
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
That's right.
霍尔木兹海峡。
The Strait Of Hormuz.
好的。
Okay.
嗯，是的。
Uh-huh.
那为什么这这么困难呢？
So why is this so difficult?
我听了一些关于这个的报道，说它最窄处只有大约21英里宽。
I've tuned into some stories around this which just indicate that there's like, it's first of all, it's like 21 mile wide area at its at its narrowest point.
但这是石油运输的重要航道，而且很难防御，尤其是考虑到现代技术和战争方式。
But this is a prime shipping lane for oil and very difficult to defend, particularly with some of the modern technology and warfare.
当然，还有水雷之类的东西可以击沉船只，此外，伊朗的无人机也能轻易攻击运输船，甚至对美军舰艇构成威胁。
Of course, you have, like, mines and such that can take out boats, But then also drones from Iran can easily take out shipping cargo and even pose a threat to US military ships.
所以看起来存在一种不对称性：防御远比进攻困难得多。
So there seems to be like this asymmetry in that it's much harder to defend than it is to attack.
这是这个故事的一部分吗？
Is that part of the story here?
这绝对是故事的一部分。
That's absolutely part of the story.
巨大的不对称性。
A massive amount of asymmetry.
伊朗甚至不需要做太多。
Iran doesn't even need to do much.
他们只需要表明自己会攻击通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只，因为这样做的后果是，保险公司会说，我们绝不会为任何通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只提供保险。
They just need to posture that they will attack ships going through the Strait Of Hormuz because then the fallout, the secondary order consequences of that is that insurance companies are saying, no way are we insuring any ship that goes through the Strait Of Hormuz.
这完全打乱了我们的计算。
It just blows out our calculations.
因此，伊朗仅仅放出关闭霍尔木兹海峡的言论，就足以吓到保险公司。
And so the idea of Iran just having rhetoric about closing the Strait Of Hormuz is enough to scare the insurance companies.
所以，这就是特朗普试图向欧盟以及全球经济所传递的信息，他说：喂。
And so this is what, Donald Trump is trying to posture to the EU about and to the to the global economy basically saying, hey.
我们所有的石油都来自这里。
We all get our oil here.
实际上，我们的石油没问题。
Actually, our oil is fine.
看看布伦特原油的价格。
Look at the price of Brent.
欧盟、中国、日本，你们的石油贵得多。
EU, China, Japan, your guys' oil is way more expensive.
这是你们的问题。
This is your guys' problem.
来帮我们保卫霍尔木兹海峡吧。
Come help us defend the Strait Of Hormuz.
是的。
Yeah.
他现在可能正想着，是的。
And he's currently probably like, yeah.
但这是你们挑起的，那你们来解决吧？
But you guys started this, so, how about you do it?
是的。
Yeah.
但特朗普会说，当然可以。
But but then Trump is like, sure.
是我们挑起的，但这是你们的问题。
We started it, but it's your problem.
天哪。
Oh my god.
对。
Yeah.
我想，这就是现状。
That's the that's the status, I suppose.
这就是为什么我们看到原油价格上涨的原因。
And that's why we're seeing crude oil prices go up.
全球股市似乎对此并不买账。
Global equities don't seem to like this very much.
因此，在过去五天里，纳斯达克下跌了2.1%。
So On the five day, the Nasdaq has been down 2.1%.
道琼斯指数，这些是美国指数，下跌了2%。
Dow Jones, so these are American indices down 2%.
但在日本，下跌了3.4%。
But in Japan, 3.4.
在英国，下跌了2.6%。
In The UK, 2.6%.
所以，美国以外的全球市场受到的影响更大，这也很合理，因为你看原油市场的分化：布伦特原油价格远高于北美原油。
So global markets outside of The US being more affected by this, and that makes sense if you see the bifurcation oil markets where Brent crude is much higher than the the North American crude oil.
所以
So
没错。
That's right.
市场并不喜欢这种不确定性。
Markets aren't liking this uncertainty.
我想，上周遗留的问题仍然是：这种情况最终会得到解决吗？
I guess the question still lingers from from last week, which is, is this going to be buttoned up, at some point in time?
会不会达成和平，实现停火？
Is there going to be a peace, a cessation of of fire?
这件事会持续多久呢？
Like, how long is this thing going to last?
是的。
Yeah.
我认为，这确实是个问题。
That I I think I think that is a question.
我的意思是，我今天早上看了我的Robinhood投资组合。
I mean, I'm looking at my Robinhood portfolio as of this morning.
我们所讨论的这次袭击发生在昨天晚上，所以市场今天早上对此作出了反应。
This strike that we're talking about happened, yesterday, last night, and so markets are responding to this this morning.
情况不好。
It's not good.
你看，股票市场全是红色的。
Like, it's red red for equities.
所以问题是，我们什么时候才能摆脱这种局面？
So the question is, like, when we can we just get over this?
市场什么时候才能重新关注正常的因素，比如增长和收入，而不是继续把不稳定性以及油价上涨导致的更高通胀计入价格？
When can the markets resume pricing in, the normal things, like growth and revenue rather than pricing in instability and a higher inflation due to higher oil prices?
所以，特朗普在以色列袭击伊朗、随后伊朗袭击卡塔尔之后，发了一条非常公开的社交媒体帖子，同时做了三件事。
So, like, Trump's after this, attack from Israel on Iran and then the responding Iranian attack on Qatar, he released out this kind of loud truth social post, kinda doing three things simultaneously.
他基本上与以色列对伊朗油田的袭击划清了界限。
He basically distanced The United States, association with the Israeli attack on the Iranian oil fields.
但他也表示，伊朗，你们不能通过袭击卡塔尔来回应。
But then he also said, Iran, you don't get to respond by attacking Qatar.
你们不能这么做。
You don't get to do that.
如果你再这么做，我们将动用美国军队的全部力量进行反击，我认为这一点会得到认真对待，因为我们实际上正在这么做。
If you do that anymore, we are going to come down with a full might of the US military, which I think is the rod will take very credibly since we are literally doing that.
所以，他基本上是在说，你们可以被以色列攻击，但你们不能反击任何人。
And so, basically, he's kind of saying is just like, you guys get to be attacked by Israel, but you don't get to hit anyone else back.
这完全不像是冲突即将结束的迹象。
And that is not anything I would characterize as a conflict coming to its conclusion.
是的。
Yes.
这件事现在仍然感觉处于中期阶段，而不是接近尾声。
It still feels very middle gamey and not end gamey for this whole thing.
唐纳德·特朗普在宣布这场冲突时曾预测，我们至少会陷入这场局势数周，甚至可能长达一个月。
Donald Trump, when he said, when he announced this conflict, he predicted we will be in this for at least some weeks, if not a month.
我们现在已进入第十九天。
We are nineteen days in.
所以，距离他之前说的那个月还有一段时间。
So we still have some time on that month long earlier.
哦，这还没结束。
Oh, it's not winding up.
这个赛季不会。
Not this season.
是的，看起来我们短期内不会结束这场局势。
Yeah, it does not seem like we are winding this up anytime soon.
好的，那么加密货币市场对此有何反应？
Okay, so how have crypto markets reacted to this?
比特币本周下跌11.4%，以太坊上涨3.2%。
Bitcoin down 11.4% on the week ease up 3.2% on the week.
因此，比特币和以太坊之间出现了一些有趣的细微差异。
So interesting small amount of divergence between Bitcoin and ether.
但尽管比特币本周下跌了1.4%，它仍然跑赢了股票和主要黄金。
But even though that Bitcoin is down 1.4% on the week, it is still outperforming equities and mainly gold.
实际上，比特币近期的表现，尤其是自战争爆发以来，一直表现优异。
And so actually, Bitcoin as a performer lately, and especially since the start of the war has been an outperformer.
是的。
Yeah.
这很值得观察。
Which is interesting to watch.
在一开始。
At the beginning.
自从伊朗战争爆发以来，比特币上涨了约16%。
Since the war in Iran started, Bitcoin has been up like 16%.
与此同时，纳斯达克指数和黄金都下跌了。
Meanwhile, the NASDAQ has been down and gold has been down.
所以。
So the
公司下跌了4%，纳斯达克下跌了大约4%。
company is down 4% NASDAQ's down about 4%.
黄金的跌幅甚至更大，自以来下跌了约8%。
Gold is down even more than like the 8% since
战争开始时。
the start of the war.
是的。
Yeah.
加密货币投资者当然感受到了这种势头。
And crypto investors, course, are feeling this momentum.
他们正在问一个问题：这是否意味着我们刚刚迎来了一次制度性转变？是的。
And they're asking the question, oh, was that it was did we just get a regime Yeah.
加密货币正在重新上线吗？
Is is crypto coming back online?
这张海报上写着：历史上最明显的比特币底部，而它就出现在69000美元的比特币价格处。
This is a poster that says the most obvious Bitcoin bottom in history, and here it is at 69 k Bitcoin.
那就是底部。
That was the bottom.
在这里判断底部，参考的是2004年、2005年的价格。
Calling the bottom here, looking at prices from 2,004, 2,005.
所以因为价格在上涨，人们自然会说，也许最糟糕的时候已经过去了。
So because price is going up, of course, people are saying, well, you know, maybe that's the worst of it.
也许这正是底部。
Maybe that's the bottom.
特别是，看到比特币上涨而黄金暴跌，这很有趣。
And in particular, it's been interesting to see Bitcoin rise while gold has tumbled.
所以看看这里的大 divergence，大卫。
So look at this divergence here, David.
所以这个，我猜，黄金用橙色表示，而比特币用蓝色表示，两者之间出现了明显的背离。
So this is, I guess, gold confusingly in the orange color, And then, Bitcoin looks like in blue, and there's quite a divergence.
黄金大幅下跌，而比特币却在上涨。
So big, gold going down where whereas Bitcoin is going up.
这是Zero Hedge帖子中提到的比特币。
Bitcoin is used this is zero hedge posting.
过去，比特币在地缘政治冲突中总是第一个被重创的风险资产。
Bitcoin used to be the first risk asset to get nuked on geopolitical conflict.
不再是这样了。
Not anymore.
事实上，自战争开始以来，比特币的表现一直优于黄金。
In fact, it is outperforming gold since the start of the war.
regime shift？
Regime shift?
问题。
Question.
现在
Now
我会说，我觉得我上周或者前几周就提出过这个观点。
I I will say that I think I gave this take last week or or two weeks ago.
比特币或黄金之前一直在经历一场非常狂热的泡沫式上涨，而黄金在一个月前多一点的时候，涨到了5500盎司左右，随后泡沫破裂了。
Bitcoin or gold has been doing this very euphoric bubbly run up thing that popped at 5,500 ounces for gold, like a little over a month ago.
是的。
Yeah.
而且它似乎正从那个高点开始回调并呈下行趋势。
And it kind of just seems to be correcting and down trending from that very high point.
所以直到今天，我认为仍然存在很多噪音。
So I still to this day think that there's plenty of noise.
你只是说这是均值回归。
You're just saying this is this is mean reversion.
这既是比特币的均值回归，也是黄金的均值回归。
It's both Bitcoin mean reversion and also gold mean reversion.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我之前没从比特币的角度想过，但我觉得这个观点也成立。
I didn't really think about it from the Bitcoin side, but I think that's also valid.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，有些人可能这么想，但很多人说，你看。
I mean, some people maybe think that, but a lot are saying that, look.
比特币，这是弗兰克·夏皮罗。
Bitcoin this is Frank Shapiro.
比特币在伊朗战争期间的表现优于许多传统资产，他提供了更多数据。
Bitcoin has weathered the war with Iran better than many traditional assets, and he's giving more stats.
他还指出，机构资金正在重返市场。
And he's also pointing to the institutional money coming back online.
是的。
Yeah.
上周，12只美国上市的现货比特币ETF净流入总额超过7.63亿美元。
So net inflows in 12 US listed spot Bitcoin ETFs topped 763,000,000 last week.
确实，当你查看资金流入图表时，就能看到这一点。
And indeed, that's what you see when you go to the inflows chart.
你可以看到大量黑色，以及比特币流入的许多正面交易日，这是我们今年未曾见过的。
You could see a lot of black, a lot of positive days for inflows into Bitcoin, which is, we haven't seen that this year.
10%。
10%.
因此，所有加密货币ETF，包括比特币和以太坊ETF，其总资产管理规模在过去一周增长了10%。
So all crypto ETF Bitcoin and ether ETFs total AUM of those things grew 10% in the last week.
我的分支，是的，规模很大。
My branch Yeah, it is large.
规模确实很大。
It is large.
而且，如果你愿意相信的话，我认为你可以看到，这或许标志着一种范式转变的开始。
And if you, you know, if you if you wanna believe, I think you can see that you you could say maybe this is the start of a regime change.
正如我之前告诉你的，大概上周吧，我只是把我的周期思维大脑外包给了迈克尔·纳托，他对这周有个不错的观点，那就是这种情况在2022年也发生过。
As I said to you before, like, last week, I think, like, my I'm just outsourcing my cycle mentals kinda brain to Michael Nato, And he had a good take on the week, which was this also played out in 2022.
上一轮熊市2022年，我们经历了一场为期两个月的反弹行情，价格上涨了大约30%到40%。
So the last bear market 2022, we had a two month relief rally where we went up about 30 to 40%.
当时人们说，这正是俄乌战争开始的信号，大家纷纷说：‘看，就是它了。’
And people at the time were saying this was at the beginning of the, Russia Ukraine war, and people were saying, oh, there it is.
你知道的，这是一种战时资产。
It's, you know, it's a wartime asset.
你看。
And look.
美国正在对俄罗斯实施制裁，切断其与SWIFT系统的连接，并冻结其国债。
The US is, you know, sanctioning Russia on SWIFT and freezing T bills.
当时伴随着这波价格上涨，有一个叙事解释，但最终结果是，这场反弹并未持续。
And so there was a narrative accompanying this price pump, but what ended up happening, of course, is that relief rally did not last.
直到2024年，又过了两年，价格才再次达到那个高点。
And it took two more years into 2024 to reach those highs yet again.
因此，从默认角度看，这看起来很像上一轮周期，这也可能是我的基本预期。
So by default, this kind of looks like last cycle and is probably my base case as well.
但我把这方面的判断交给了迈克尔·纳托。
But I'm, like, deferring that to to Michael Nato.
他在这类事情上的判断太准了，我没法质疑他的观点。
He's, he's been right too often for me to, you know, dispute his his take on this.
你知道谁同意你和迈克尔的看法吗？
You know who agrees with you and and Michael?
是谁？
Who's that?
本·考恩。
Ben Cowan.
好的。
Okay.
进入加密世界。
Into the cryptoverse.
是的。
Yes.
他认为我们目前基本上是在为下一轮下跌做准备。
He thinks that we are basically down for like, setting up ourselves for like another down leg.
然后我们就将陷入熊市的深谷。
And then we will kind of be in the depth of the bear.
而那时就正是如此。
And that will be just where it is.
我知道这意味着回家。
Which I know is to go home.
我也同意这一点。
I would also agree with that as well.
谁？
Who?
四年周期。
The four year cycles.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
未尝一败，我得说。
Undefeated, I gotta say.
未尝一败，这四年周期是未尝一败的。
Undefeated is the four year cycles are undefeated.
但有人试图击败它们，我要说，这周末市场上的新闻人物是迈克尔·塞拉。
But somebody who is trying to defeat them, I will say this is kinda news on the weekend markets, was Michael Saylor.
所以你知道吗，大卫，迈克尔·塞拉在过去两周内购买了大约30亿美元的比特币？
So did you know, David, Michael Saylor bought roughly $3,000,000,000 of Bitcoin over the past two weeks?
还差一点就到30亿美元。
Just shy of 3,000,000,000.
是的。
Yeah.
28.5亿美元。
2,850,000,000.00.
我之前没注意到这个被低估了。
That I did not that went underrate.
我觉得我在我的信息流里看到的这条新闻被低估了。
I feel like as a news that I saw on my fees and timeline that went underreported.
我同意。
I agree.
就像，我们似乎已经习惯了迈克尔·萨伊尔一直在买入。
Like, I guess we're always just used to Michael Saylor buying.
但确实，当你
But yeah, and when you
忘了去关注数字的规模，但比如说，两周内买入了28亿，这动静可不小。
forget to size the numbers, but like say, we got 2,800,000,000.0 over two weeks is that's motion.
是的。
Yeah.
所以如果你看这张图表，这些橙色的大点代表。
So if you look at this chart, these are in orange, these big orange dots.
这些都是迈克尔·萨伊尔的购买记录。
These are all of the, Michael Saylor purchases.
因此，自2020年他启动这一计划以来，所有购买都是这一策略的一部分。
So the strategy purchases all the way since 2020 when he started this whole thing.
你可以看到，在2022年的上一轮熊市中，他几乎没有买入，因为他没有现金。
And you could see last bear market in 2022, he wasn't doing very much buying, and that's because he didn't have any cash.
没人愿意借钱给他买比特币。
No one would give him money to buy.
所以他当时买进的少量比特币，是用MicroStrategy资产负债表产生的多余现金完成的。
So the little amount that he was buying, he was doing this with excess cash from, I think, the MicroStrategy balance sheet was throwing off cash.
那时候，MicroStrategy这个品牌和名字根本没人知道。
That sort of MicroStrategy as a brand, as a name, just wasn't known back then.
在那轮熊市的低谷期，它根本算不上什么大事。
It just wasn't a big of a deal in the depth of that bear market.
是的，没错。
Oh, yeah.
而且当时他刚起步，比特币刚出现，人们都说他疯了。
Well, and he had just started Bitcoin was like, people were calling him crazy.
当时人们都在嘲笑他。
They were laughing at him at this point in time.
他还是疯了。
He's still crazy.
不管比特币价格是多少。
He matter what price Bitcoin is at.
迈克尔·赛勒是个疯子。
Michael Saylor is a crazy person.
但这只是被称为逆向思维，对吧？
That's just called being contrarian right, though.
你确实可以很疯狂，但人们却会为此庆祝你。
You can be crazy right, and people will celebrate you for it.
但这次熊市期间，你可以看到那些巨大的橙色点。
But you can see the the big orange dots this time around in this bear market.
这是我见过最大的一些点。
They're they're some of the biggest dots I've ever seen.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
好的。
Okay.
那么，他从哪里弄到这笔资金的？
So where did he get this capital?
他从哪里弄到30亿美元来完成这些购买的？
Where did he get the $3,000,000,000 to make these purchases?
我的意思是，MicroStrategy的整个理念就像是围绕比特币打造一个信贷引擎。
I mean, the whole idea of MicroStrategy is it's like trying to make a credit engine around Bitcoin.
对吧？
Right?
所以他拥有MicroStrategy的平价股票。
And so there's he has the the at the money shares of MicroStrategy.
他拥有Strife和Strike产品。
He has the Strife, the Strike products.
他打算出售大量股票来购买比特币。
He's gonna sell a bunch of paper for Bitcoin.
是的
Yeah.
这就是
That's what
他正在做的。
he was doing.
在熊市中这样做更难，所以他不得不提供一些诱人的收益率。
It's harder to do during a bear market, so he had to offer some juicy yields.
因此，他通过一种名为STRC的优先股发行筹集了数十亿美元，这使持有人获得MicroStrategy的优先股以及每年11.5%的保证收益。
So he raised these billions of dollars in a preferred stock offering called STRC, and this gives holders preferred shares in MicroStrategy as well as 11.5% per year guaranteed yield.
所以MicroStrategy的策略必须向投资者偿还这笔款项，但资金正是来源于此。
So MicroStrategy your strategy has to pay that back to investors, but that's where the capital is coming from.
他目前融资的能力实际上非常令人印象深刻。
And his ability to finance this right now is quite impressive, actually.
是的
Yeah.
另一个买家Bitmine也购买了121,000个以太坊。
The other person buying, Bitmine, also bought a 121,000 ether.
不是将近28亿，而是，你知道的，一个还算体面的2.5亿，但是
Not quite 2,800,000,000.0, just, you know, a respectable 250,000,000, but
但它能让你买到更多的以太坊。
it buys you more etho.
但它能让你买到更多。
But it buys you more.
你有没有
Did you
知道吗，Bitmine已经完成了达到总供应量5%目标的75%
know, right, that bit mine is 75% of its way to 5% of the total supply of
这太惊人了。
That's incredible.
我不禁想知道，如果他们继续这样买入，到今年年底他们会不会真的达成这个目标。
And I gotta wonder if they're gonna hit that at by the end of this year if they keep making these buys.
是的。
Yeah.
我们必须持续获得资金。
We'll have to keep getting the capital.
最后，关于市场，美联储召开了会议，利率保持不变。
FOM lastly, on markets, FOMC, they had their meeting and the rates were left unchanged.
所以美联储决定不采取任何行动。
So the Fed decided to do nothing.
他们将利率维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。
They left the rates at 3.5 to 3.75%.
董事会全体成员都同意，只有美联储理事米伦持不同意见。
Everyone on the board agreed except for, Fed governor, Mirren.
所以，你知道，这是特朗普最喜欢的人。
So that's, you know, Trump's favorite.
当然，他投了反对票。
Of course, he dissented.
他支持降息。
He was in favor of interest rate cuts.
美联储强调中东局势存在更多不确定性。
The Fed emphasized there's more uncertainty in The Middle East.
通胀正在上升。
Inflation is increasing.
实际上表示通胀比目标高出一个百分点。
Actually said that inflation is one percent point above target.
这并不是滞胀。
So this is not stagflation.
没什么好担心的。
It's nothing to worry about.
我们只是继续按原计划行事。
We're just going to hold the course.
尽管美联储维持利率不变，但Polymarket上有一件事发生了变化，瑞安，那就是2026年美联储降息次数的市场出现了新的领头者。
So while the the Fed left rates unchanged, there is something that did change in the Polymarket, Ryan, is that we have a new leader for the how many Fed rate cuts in 2026 market there is.
它曾经是市场定价的一部分。
It used to be pricing in.
我们原本预期会降息一次，幅度为25个基点。
We were going to get one rate cut at 25 bps.
当时有32%的概率认为降息一次是主流预期，但现在这个预期已经跌至第二位，而目前位居第一的是零降息。
There was gonna be a 32% chance that was the dominant the dominant market That has now flipped into second place, and now what is first place is zero.
没有变化。
No change.
34%的几率位居第一。
34% coming in number one.
所以市场的情况，可以说现在在零次、一次和两次降息之间形成了三足鼎立的局面。
And so the market I mean, it's kind of it's like a three way race right now between zero, one, and two cuts.
也就是零基点、25基点和50基点。
So zero bps, 25 bps, 50 bps.
但就在过去一周，市场预期从一次降息转向了零降息。
But right now, we did get a flip in the last week from, one cut to zero cuts.
所以降息并不会
So rate cuts aren't going to
拯救风险资产。
save risk on assets.
我想这告诉我们了这一点。
I guess that's what this tells us.
我们还有很多其他话题要谈，包括这个。
We got more to talk about including this.
我认为，这是加密货币领域长期以来最大的新闻：SEC和CFTC正在为我们提供《清晰法案》或非常接近的类似方案。
The biggest news, I think, in a long time in crypto, the SEC and the CFTC are giving us the Clarity Act or something pretty close to it.
我们称之为监管清晰度吧。
Let's say the regulatory clarity.
是的。
Yes.
那不是法案。
That's not the act.
这简直就是我们一直想要的一切。
This is, like, everything we've wanted.
所以戴夫和我回去后会详细讨论这个。
So Dave and I are gonna discuss this when we get back.
但在那之前，我们想感谢让本集成为可能的赞助商。
But before we do, we wanna thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.
Galaxy 是数字资产与下一代基础设施交汇的地方，为机构提供端到端的服务。
Galaxy operates where digital assets and next generation infrastructure come together, serving institutions end to end.
在市场方面，Galaxy 是领先的机构平台，提供现货、衍生品、结构性产品、DeFi 借贷、投资银行和融资服务。
On the market side, Galaxy is a leading institutional platform, providing access to spot, derivatives, structured products, DeFi lending, investment banking, and financing.
拥有超过1600个交易对手，Galaxy 帮助机构应对市场周期的每个阶段。
With more than 1,600 trading counterparties, Galaxy helps institutions navigate every phase of the market cycle.
该平台还通过主动管理策略以及机构级质押和区块链基础设施，支持长期资产配置者。
The platform also supports long term allocators through actively managed strategies and institutional grade staking and blockchain infrastructure.
这种规模是实实在在的。
That scale is real.
Galaxy 平台上的资产超过 120 亿美元，并在 2025 年底平均保持了 18 亿美元的贷款规模，体现了生态系统中深厚的信任。
Galaxy has over $12,000,000,000 in assets on the platform and averaged a $1,800,000,000 loan book in late twenty twenty five, reflecting deep trust across the ecosystem.
除了数字资产，Galaxy 还在为人工智能驱动的未来构建基础设施。
Beyond digital assets, Galaxy is also building infrastructure for an AI powered future.
其 Helios 数据中心园区专为人工智能和高性能计算而建，拥有超过 1.6 吉瓦的已批准电力容量，使其成为同类中规模最大的站点之一。
Its Helios Data Center campus is purpose built for AI and high performance computing, with more than 1.6 gigawatts of approved power capacity, making it one of the largest sites of its kind.
从全球市场到为人工智能准备的数据中心，Galaxy 正在端到端地服务数字资产生态系统。
From global markets to AI ready data centers, Galaxy is serving the digital asset ecosystem end to end.
请访问 galaxy.com/bankless 或点击节目说明中的链接，了解更多关于 Galaxy 的信息。
Explore Galaxy at galaxy.com/bankless or click the link in the show notes.
市场正在对一个感觉极不稳定的世界做出反应。
Markets are reacting to a world that feels anything but stable.
通胀居高不下，地缘政治风险上升，资本在加密货币、大宗商品、股票和货币之间流动的速度前所未有。
Inflation is sticky, geopolitical risk is rising, and capital is moving between crypto, commodities, equities, and currencies faster than ever.
像 Bitget 这样的通用交易所正是为此类环境而打造的。
A universal exchange like Bitget is built for this kind of environment.
通过一次重大应用升级，Bitget 现在在导航栏中为传统金融设立了专属标签页。
With a major app upgrade, Bitget now gives TradFi its own dedicated tab in the navigation.
一键即可访问股票、黄金、外汇及其他全球市场，全部都在你已用于加密货币的同一平台上。
One click gives you access to stocks, gold, forex, and other global markets, all inside the same platform you already use for crypto.
你可以在股票永续合约上享受高达 90% 的交易手续费折扣，并且交易黄金和白银无需支付手续费燃烧。
You can get 90% off trading fees on stock perps, and you can trade gold and silver without the fee burn.
一个应用，一个账户。
One app, one account.
无需在不同平台间切换，即可并排交易加密资产和传统资产。
Trade crypto and traditional assets side by side without bouncing between platforms.
无需分散的工具，无需反复登录，只需一个为速度与灵活性打造的统一交易体验。
No scattered tools, no login juggling, just a unified trading experience built for speed and flexibility.
当黄金对全球风险做出反应，加密货币因流动性而波动，宏观新闻可能一夜之间改变市场时。
When gold is reacting to global risk, crypto is moving on liquidity, and macro headlines can shift markets overnight.
你需要一个将所有内容集中于一处的平台。
You need a platform that keeps everything in one place.
这就是Bitget通用交易所愿景的体现。
This is Bitget's universal exchange vision in action.
如果你是那种随着世界变化而调整的交易者，Bitget就是为你打造的。
If you're the kind of trader who adapts as the world changes, Bitget is built for you.
在同一个地方开始交易加密货币和传统金融资产。
Start trading crypto and TradFi in one place.
点击节目说明中的链接。
Click the link in the show notes.
这不是投资建议。
This is not investment advice.
美国证券交易委员会和商品期货交易委员会刚刚明确了加密货币的监管规则。
The SEC and the CFTC just clarified the rules of the road for crypto.
他们现在实际上告诉我们哪些加密资产不是证券，哪些是。
They're actually telling us at this point which crypto assets aren't securities and which ones are.
这几乎就像，他们给予了加密货币一直要求的一切，并且能够在不通过国会立法的情况下，为加密资产提供清晰的界定。
It's almost like, they're giving crypto everything it's always asked for and that it is possible to provide clarity on crypto assets without going through an act of congress.
来自CFTC和SEC的利好消息接踵而至，简直让人有点应接不暇。
The velocity of good news coming out of both the CFTC and the SEC is like a little bit overwhelming.
我们上周还在不断收到好消息。
It's like we were we were getting good news last week.
上周我们赢了，这周我们又赢了。
We were winning last week and we're winning again this week.
有一段主席保罗·阿特金斯介绍这一举措的视频，值得一看，我们直接来听听吧。
There's a clip from chairman Paul Atkins introducing this, probably worth watching, let's just go ahead and listen to it.
今天，我很高兴地宣布，SEC长期以来在这一问题上缺乏清晰度的局面结束了。
So today, I'm pleased to announce that the SEC's persistent failure to provide clarity on this question is over.
就在我们说话的同时，委员会正在实施代币分类法和投资合同解释方案，当你回家后，应该会在邮箱里收到，或者去官网查看。
As we speak, the commission is implementing a token taxonomy and investment contract interpretation, and you should find that in your inbox or if you look on the website when you get home.
我们的解释基于现有法律，并结合了广泛的公众意见，确立了四类不被认定为证券的资产。
Our interpretation, which is grounded in existing law and informed by extensive public input, establishes four asset categories that are not deemed to be securities.
即数字商品、数字收藏品、数字工具，以及根据《迪恩天才法案》的支付型稳定币。
So digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, and payment stable coins under the Dean Genius Act.
在确立这些类别后，该解释进一步明确，仅有一种加密资产类别仍受证券法管辖，即被代币化的传统证券——数字证券。
With these categories in place, the interpretation then clarifies that only one crypto asset class remains subject to securities laws, namely digital securities, which are traditional securities that are tokenized.
这一区分使SEC回归其保护证券交易所中投资者的核心使命和法定职权。
This distinction returns the SEC to its core mission and statutory authority of protecting investors involved in securities transactions.
我们不再是‘证券与一切委员会’了。
We're not the Securities and Everything Commission anymore.
谢谢。
So thank you.
笑声和掌声并不是说‘我们不再是证券与一切委员会了’。
The laughter and the claps were not the securities and everything commission anymore.
我们将回归证券本源，明确告诉你哪些加密资产是证券，哪些不是，并且他们列出了五类。
We're going back to securities, and we're gonna tell you clearly which crypto assets are securities and which aren't, and they named five.
因此，这是SEC和CFTC发布的一份非正式规则制定文件。
So this is sort of a an informal rulemaking document that the SEC and the CFTC released.
有多少页？
How many pages?
这是一份68页的文件。
This is a 68 page document.
所以你们可以自己去阅读。
So you guys can go through it.
我们会在节目笔记中附上链接。
We'll include a link in the show notes.
如果你们愿意，也可以让你们的AI助手分析一下，但我们的工作是做总结。
Put it through your AI bot if you want, but it's our job to summarize.
SEC刚刚发布了五个类别，一种加密资产的分类法。
There's five categories, a taxonomy of crypto assets that the SEC just released.
我们来逐一看看。
Let's go through them.
保罗·阿特金斯主席确实逐一讲解了，但首先是数字商品。
Chair Paul Atkins did go through them, but digital commodities is the first.
这些是与现有功能性的去中心化加密系统相关的应用。
These are apps tied to a existing functional decentralized crypto system.
在第14页，我认为，他们明确列出了某些资产。
And on page 14, I believe, they named some assets specifically.
所以Aptos、Avalanche、比特币、比特币现金，这些都是按字母顺序排列的。
So Aptos, Avalanche, Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, this is all alphabetical.
Cardano，哦，Aptos。
Cardano oh, Aptos.
以太坊、Hedera、莱特币、波卡、Shibunu Shibunu、Solana、Stellar、Tezos和XRP。
Ether, Hedera, Litecoin, Polkadot, Shibunu Shibunu, Solana, Stellar, Tezos, and XRP.
这些是属于这一类别的、按名称列出的资产。
Those are the assets by name that are in this category of
数字公司。
digital companies.
我认为，这种氛围是独有的。
Exclusive to, I think, is the vibe of this.
没错。
That's right.
这些都不是证券。
And these are all not securities.
这是商品期货交易委员会管辖下的第一类。
That's the first category under CFTC jurisdiction.
这很好，因为他们的意思是：商品期货交易委员会，这是你们的问题。
Which is great because they're like, CFTC, this is your guys', like, this is your guys' problem.
我们不想要这个。
We don't want this.
我的同事，我们跟他谈过。
My my my colleague, we talked to him.
所有不属于证券的都是商品。
Everything that's not a security is a commodity.
对吧？
Right?
所以这不属于证券。
And so this is not a security.
因此，我们所有的去中心化数字商品都属于商品。
So therefore, all of our decentralized digital commodities are commodities.
下一个类别是什么？
What's the next category?
数字收藏品。
Digital collectibles.
这要特别提到里奇·托雷斯的加密宝可梦卡片。
This would be a shout out to, Richie Torres tokenized Pokemon cards.
是的。
Yes.
属于这一类的包括NFT、模因币、艺术作品代币和游戏内物品。
Falling this category, NFTs, meme coins, artwork tokens, in game items.
这些都是物品。
Are items.
答案是，他根本无法回答这个关于加密宝可梦的问题
The answer was so unable to answer this question as to whether tokenized Pokemon
卡片很简单。
cards are simple.
安全经理可以直接说这些事。
Security manager can just say these things.
他对此感到困惑。
He was flummoxed by it.
但保罗·阿特金斯却直接说，这些不是证券。
But Paul Atkins is he's just like, yeah, these are not securities.
接下来是数字工具。
Next up, digital tools.
这些我们称之为实用型代币，用于在网络中获取访问权限或实现功能。
These are we'll call these utility tokens, utility style tokens for access or function functionality in a network.
他们提到ENS了吗？
Do they name ENS?
是的，我认为他们有会员代币、凭证和域名。
Yeah, I think they had membership tokens, credentials, domain names.
接下来是支付型稳定币。
The next is, payment stablecoins.
这些也不是证券。
These are also not securities.
所以我们刚刚列出的这四种，都不是证券。
So the four we've just listed, not securities.
任何根据《天才法案》定义的支付型稳定币，都是
Any payment stablecoin as defined by the Genius Act, which is
没错。
That's right.
肯斯勒曾试图将稳定币归类为证券。
Kensler tried to make stablecoin securities.
我忘了这件事。
I forgot about that.
我什么都忘了。
I forgot everything.
除了比特币之外，每个代币可能都是稳定币，或者更准确地说，除了比特币之外，其他都可能是证券。
Every token is probably a stablecoin except Bitcoin, or sorry, is is is probably a security except for Bitcoin.
但这并不意味着所有的稳定币都是如此。
So now this doesn't mean all stablecoins.
这些不属于证券的稳定币，是指符合《天才法案》框架的稳定币。
These are stablecoins that aren't securities are are those that fall under the Genius Act framework.
也可能存在一些实际上是证券的稳定币，SEC将逐案进行判断。
There could be some stablecoins that are actually securities, and SEC will figure that out on a case by case basis.
我觉得这很有趣，瑞安。
I do find this interesting, Ryan.
加密行业一直有一个核心主线，那就是瑞波与SEC的对抗，实际上是瑞波与整个世界的对抗。
There has been a almost almost a core questline of the crypto industry, which is Ripple versus the SEC, really Ripple versus the world.
是的。
Yeah.
随着SEC明确将XRP归类为商品，你只能说瑞波在这条主线上的斗争最终以胜利告终。
And with the SEC explicitly classifying XRP as a commodity, You just have to say ripple one with this questline they ends in a win for ripple.
我不太看好，我觉得Ripple不会涨到月亮上去。
I'm not a huge like, I don't think ripple is going to the moon.
我不太看好，我自己不会去买Ripple。
I'm not a huge like, I wouldn't buy ripple myself.
我从来没买过Ripple。
Have never bought ripple.
这一直是一条主线，即Ripple对抗SEC。
This has been a quest line, which is Ripple against the SEC.
他们几乎像一块隔热盾，通过赢得这场官司为整个加密行业挡住了压力。
And they've been almost a heat shield for the rest of crypto kind of winning their case.
这份文件明确指出XRP是一种商品。
And this document clearly says XRP is a commodity.
我们来
Let's get
讨论一下问题。
into question.
那么什么是证券呢？
What are securities then?
哦，是的。
Oh, yes.
所以这些是不属于证券的四类加密资产。
So those are the four categories of crypto assets that aren't securities.
属于证券的是现实世界资产，也就是我们实际拥有的证券，然后我们将其上链。
The one that is are real world assets, are actual securities that we then and we take and we put on chain.
因此，代币化证券就是证券。
So tokenized securities are securities.
证券。
Securities.
是的。
Yes.
你将它们代币化，这些仍然是证券。
And you tokenize them, those are securities.
没错。
That's right.
它们原本就是证券，当你将证券代币化时，猜猜会怎样？
They're they were securities, and when you tokenize securities, guess what?
它们仍然是证券。
They're still securities.
这太清楚了。
This is so clear.
确实很清楚。
It is so clear.
我明白了。
I have clarity.
这太符合常理了。
It is so common sense.
感觉这种事情早就该做了。
It feels like this could have been done a long time ago.
我的意思是，保罗·阿特金斯说过这一点。
I mean, Paul Atkins said this much.
是的。
Yeah.
关于一些我们非常关注的特定活动，也有些清晰的界定。
There's also some clarity around some specific activities that we care a lot about.
那么空投呢？
So how about airdrops?
还记得那些地理区块吗？比如美国公民不能和伊朗公民以及朝鲜公民一起获得空投。
Remember the geo blocks where, like, American citizens couldn't get the airdrop along with Iranian citizens and citizens of North Korea.
对吧？
Right?
你在说什么？
You I'm saying?
伊朗和朝鲜。
Iran and North Korea.
是的。
Yes.
我的意思是，各位。
Like, guys.
嗯，这有问题。
Well, that's problematic.
美国证券交易委员会已经明确表示，非证券类加密资产的空投不属于证券。
The SEC has clarified that airdrops of nonsecurity crypto assets aren't securities.
所以别担心。
So don't worry.
你们可以在那里获得空投。
You can get airdrops there.
这没问题。
That's fine.
现在这没问题了。
That is fine now.
挖矿和质押这些活动，包括LSTs。
Mining and staking those activities, even LSTs.
所以如果你把以太坊变成质押后的以太坊版本，这并不会让它神奇地变成证券。
So if you take Ether and it becomes a version of staked Ether, that doesn't magically turn it into a security.
它仍然不是证券。
It's still not a security.
它仍然是加密商品。
It's still a crypto commodity.
还有，包装非证券资产。
Also, wrapping non nonsecurity assets.
所以如果你包装一个资产，比如比特币，把它变成某种形式的 Wrapped Bitcoin，这也不是证券。
So if you wrap an asset, you know, Bitcoin, you turn that into wrapped Bitcoin in some way, that's also not a security.
这是我们之前没有但现在拥有的全部清晰性。
This is all clarity that we didn't have previously that we now have.
这有点像包装。
It's kinda like wrapping.
我们所有人都直觉地知道，打包并不会改变资产的性质。
We all intuitively knew that like wrapping doesn't do anything to an asset.
这其实是个技术性问题。
This is like a technical thing.
它本该如此。
It should.
这是常识。
It's common sense.
但我们仍然需要他们明确说出这些话。
But like we still needed them to say the words.
我知道，因为你之前并不确定加里·根斯勒是否会仅仅因为你打包了一个代币，或者你收到了空投，就向你发出威尔斯通知。
I know because you you didn't know whether Gary Gensler was going to drop a Wells notice on you just because you wrapped a token, you wrapped a token or you received an airdrop.
他们还向大卫提到了豪威测试，他们是怎么说的？
They also touched on the Howie test to David, what do they say?
他们表示，如果发行方做出了具体承诺，承诺通过管理努力使买家获得利润，那么在这些承诺兑现之前，该发行就属于证券。
They said if an issuer makes specific promises of managerial efforts from which buyers expect profits, the offering is a security until those promises are fulfilled.
有意思，直到这些承诺被履行为止。
Interesting, until those promises are fulfilled.
所以一旦承诺履行完毕，它就变成了商品。
So once the promises are fulfilled, then it becomes a commodity.
没错。
That's right.
然后这与XRP案，也就是瑞波公司与SEC的案件非常相似——在你发布XRP之前，当你签订了这些投资合约时，瑞波币是一种证券。
The and then this is very similar to the the x XRP sorry, the Ripple versus the SEC case, which is basically before you released XRP and you made these investment contracts, Ripple was a security.
但一旦网络上线，管理努力结束之后，它就变成了商品，对吧。
But then it turned into a commodity once the network was launched, once the managerial efforts were concluded Right.
而且一旦它在市场上市后。
And once it was available on the market.
对。
Right.
投资合约是证券，但代币一旦上链，就不再是证券，买卖它也没问题，没错。
The investment contracts was the security, but the token, once it was on the network, is not a security and buying and selling That's right.
不代表证券
Does not represent a security
这几乎就是法官的观点。
It's almost like and this was the judge's position.
资产本身从来不是证券，只是围绕它的交易才是。
The asset itself was never the security, just the deal around it was.
交易。
The deal.
是的。
Well, yeah.
最初的交易，也就是他们打包大量额外代币并出售的交易。
The initial deal, the introduction of the deal where they sold packaged up a bunch of extra p and sold it.
对。
Yeah.
所以，再次体现了关于豪威测试的常识。
So again, more common sense with respect to the Howey test.
但这还不是全部。
But that's not all.
这真是一个了不起的分类体系。
So this was incredible taxonomy.
等等。
Wait.
还有更多。
There's more.
是的。
Yes.
因此，阿特金斯主席在讲话中也表示，他希望为代币发行者提供一个安全港。
So Chair Atkins also, in his remarks, he provided a he hoped to provide, so he specified a safe harbor for token issuers.
因此，这包含三个组成部分。
So there were three components to this.
初创企业豁免、融资豁免、投资合同安全港，这些是什么？
Start up exemptions, fundraising exemptions, investment contract safe harbor, what are these?
是的。
Yeah.
所以初创企业豁免适用于早期阶段的初创公司。
So a startup exemption is like an early stage startup.
如果你筹集的资金不超过500万美元，就可以在四年内不受SEC规则和管辖权的约束。
You don't have to fall under the rules and jurisdiction of the SEC for four years if you raise $5,000,000 or less.
你只需要进行非常简化的披露要求，轻量级且不会给需要保持精简的小型初创企业带来负担。
So you do a very simplified disclosure requirement, very lightweight, not encumbering of small lightweight startups that need to stay lean.
这是第一个。
That's the first one.
然后是第二个门槛，即如果你希望进一步扩大规模并筹集7500万美元，就可以进行更结构化的披露。
Then there's like a second gate which, okay, if you want to get even bigger and you want to raise $75,000,000, then you can do a more structured disclosure.
这是你的第二层级。
That's like your second tier.
你有十二个月的时间来完成这一过程。
And you have twelve months to do that.
但之后你可以筹集高达7500万美元，并有四年时间来实现你的项目去中心化、分布式，并履行任何义务，最终使它不再被视为证券。
But then you can raise up to $75,000,000, and you have four years to figure out how to make your thing decentralized, distributed, fulfill your obligations if you have any, and then you get to become not a security at the end of that.
所以这本质上就像一个演示期、试用期或沙盒期，让你有时间完成你声称需要完成的事情，从而实现去中心化。
So it's basically just like a demo period, a trial period, sandbox period for you to do the thing that you said that you needed to do so that you can become decentralized.
它保护初创企业，使它们能够在不收到威尔斯通知的情况下完成成熟和去中心化的过程。
And it just protects startups so they could go through the process of maturing and decentralization without getting a Wells notice.
因此，这本可以保护类似以太坊原始ICO这样的项目，比如你可以在这些安全港规则下进行融资。
So this would have protected something like the original Ethereum ICO, let's say, where you can raise under one of these safe harbors
嗯。
Mhmm.
并且在十二个月内，如果融资额低于7500万美元，你就有路径将它作为商品资产而非证券释放，只要它符合我们刚刚讨论的分类中的四个类别之一。
And then within twelve months, say it's less than $75,000,000 to raise, you have a path to releasing this as a commodity asset rather than a security so long as it falls under one of the four categories in the taxonomy that we just went through.
所以这是一条路径。
So And I it's a path.
而且我预计市场上的ICO都会采取这种方式。
And I expect ICOs, like ICOs in in the in the market, will do this.
因此，你可能会看到ICO从公众那里筹集低于500万美元的资金，之后再筹集低于7500万美元的资金。
And so they will probably you'll probably see ICOs raise under 5,000,000 from the public, and then later they'll raise under 75,000,000.
但我认为这是一种允许ICO进行的结构，团队可以采用这种方式。
But I think this is like a permission to ICO or or an ICO structure that teams can do.
我就是这样看待的。
That's the way I see it.
我的意思是，这是SEC提供的一种新型资本形成方式，作为一个安全港。
I mean, so it's a it's a new type of capital formation that the SEC is providing as a safe harder harbor.
同样，只要在这一过程结束后，你成为某种数字商品、收藏品或工具。
Again, so long as on the other side of that, you become some sort of a digital commodity, a collectible, a tool.
是的。
Yeah.
我想支付型稳定币可能不适用，但你必须属于其中一种类型。
I guess pay payment stablecoins probably wouldn't apply, but you have to be one of those.
如果你在这一过程结束后仍属于证券，那么你就是一种代币化的证券。
If you're a security at the other end of that, then, well, you're tokenized security.
你仍然会保持为一种代币化证券。
And you'll still remain a tokenized security.
所以这都是非常好的消息。
So that's all really good news.
CFTC 也传来了一些好消息。
There was also some good news from the CFTC.
本周，CFTC 向 Phantom 发出了无行动函。
The CFTC this week gave a no action letter to Phantom.
所以这意思是
So this is
我认为这是 Fantom 主动要求的。
I think something that Fantom requested.
他们请求 CFTC 发出一份无行动函，意思是：嘿，请不要起诉我们。
They they asked for, a no action letter from the CFTC saying, hey, like, please don't sue us.
而 CFTC 回应说：是的，我们不会因为接入永续合约和预测市场而采取行动。
And the CFTC said, like, yeah, we're not gonna do that about plugging into perps and prediction markets.
因此，CFTC现在告知Fantom，不会因其用户在应用内访问预测市场和永续合约而采取任何行动。
So Fantom is now being told by the CFTC that they the CFTC will not take any action against Fantom for allowing their users to access prediction markets and perps inside of the app.
这意味着Phantom不被视为经纪商。
And so what does this mean is that this means that Phantom is not being considered to be a broker.
它只是一个钱包。
It is just a wallet.
它一直只是一个钱包。
It's always been a wallet.
它永远都只会是一个钱包，但在钱包中集成预测市场或像Hyper Liquid这样的衍生品平台，并不会使其承担经纪商的责任。
It's only ever going to be a wallet, but it doesn't have any broker responsibilities by integrating prediction markets or, like, hyper liquid, any derivative platform into the wallet.
有一些限制条件，Fantom必须满足这些条件。
There are some restrictions, some conditions that Fantom must meet.
它们不得处理用户资金，因此必须保持非托管状态。
They must not handle user funds, so it must remain noncustodial.
Fantom不得进行任何 discretionary trading，也不得提供任何建议。
There must not be any discretionary trading or no advice given by Fantom.
我认为Fantom根本不需要这些。
I don't think Fantom wants these things anyways.
是的。
Mhmm.
此外，Fantom引导其用户访问的预测市场和衍生品平台也必须是CFTC注册的实体，这有点意思。
And then also, the prediction markets in the derivatives platforms that Fantom points, its users to must also be CFTC registered entities as well, which is kinda interesting.
CFTC表示，这封信是前所未有的，确实如此。
The CFTC said this was the first of its kind letter, and and it totally is.
我的意思是，如果CFTC支持创新和实验，他们早就该这么做了。
I mean, the CFTC could always do this if they were pro innovation, pro experimentation.
现在他们终于决定这么做了。
Now they're deciding to.
但我认为这绝对意义重大，大卫，因为它彻底打开了钱包作为超级应用以及其他非托管型产品的可能性。
But I think this is absolutely massive, David, because it blows open wallets as super apps and other noncustodial types of things.
我的意思是，Twitter或者X也可以加入这个游戏，其他社交媒体平台也可以。
I mean, Twitter could like, x could get in this game, other social media platforms.
任何人都可以进入非托管领域。
Anyone could get in the noncustodial game.
而这涉及我们目前最有趣的两个高增长金融产品。
And this is for two of the most interesting high growth financial products that we have right now.
一个是永续合约，目前CFTC正在美国推动其推出和合法化，这是一个巨大的市场。
One is perps, which are effectively being rolled out and and legalized right now in The US by the CFTC, and that's a massive market.
因此，每个市场资产，你知道的，加密资产都将在美国推出某种永续合约，而非托管加密法律可以列出这些产品。
So every market equity, you know, crypto asset will have some sort of perp in The US, and noncustodial crypto laws can list those.
还有预测市场，即基于事件的市场、永续合约和预测市场。
And also prediction markets, so events based markets, perps, and prediction markets.
这正在打开超级应用这一类别，现在成为Fantom、Rabbi或MetaMask这样的平台非常有利，任何希望列出这些产品的人也是如此。
This is blowing open the category of super apps, like very good to be a Phantom right now or a Rabbi or a MetaMask right now and anyone that that wants to list these things.
但等等，还有更多。
But wait, there's more.
SEC已批准纳斯达克推出代币化证券交易的计划。
The SEC has approved the Nasdaq's plan to introduce tokenized securities trading.
所以，这是我们过去就有的消息。
So this is news that we've had in the past.
那么，纳斯达克的想法是，嘿，既然我们通常的交易所和交易系统允许普通证券、普通股票交易，
So then Nasdaq had this idea of just like, hey, maybe with our regular, exchange and engine and trading venue where you where we typically allow security normal securities, normal equities to be traded?
如果后端也能对一些人们想要的、可以代币化的股票进行代币化，会怎么样呢？
What if also in the back end, some, equities that are able to be tokenized because people want them, what if we also tokenize those?
而美国证券交易委员会刚刚给了他们绿灯。
And the SEC just gave them a thumbs up.
那么这意味着什么？
And so what does that mean?
是说在交易后，作为所有证券清算机构的存管信托公司（DTCC），会通过一个代币化的供应链流程，最终在另一端输出一个代币吗？
Is that post trade, the DTCC, which is the clearinghouse for all the securities, the depository trust company, will just go through a tokenization like supply chain, and then out pops a token on the other side.
不是针对所有资产或所有股票，而是针对那些愿意选择加入的，而纳斯达克希望帮助建立这种流程。
Not for every asset, not for every equity, but for some that want to opt into this, and the NASDAQ wants to help create that flow.
在另一端，代币就可以生成。
A token can happen on the other side.
因此，结算可以在代币化的环境中进行。
So settlements could happen in a tokenized context.
现在的监管机构对一切都说好。
The regulators right now just saying yes to everything.
他们基本上是在说
Basically, they're saying
这就是成功的样子吗？
This what is what winning looks like?
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
有一条相关消息，那就是标普500指数刚刚在HyperLiquid上线。
Was news that's somewhat related, which is at the S and P 500 just went live on hyper liquid.
我认为这是首个能够上线标普500指数的去中心化金融开放金融永续合约市场。
And I think this is the first kind of DeFi open finance perps market that's been able to list the S and P 500.
我知道你发过这个给我。
I know you sent this to me.
你觉得这很重要。
You thought it was a big deal.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这是一件非常重要的事。
I think it's a it's a very big deal.
这充分证明了HyperLiquid作为交易平台的强大实力。
It's a very strong validation of hyper liquid as a trading venue.
这是标普道琼斯指数公司正式授权使用该指数。
Like, this is the S and P Dow Jones Indices, like, officially licensing the index.
我想他们可能也在创建预言机，因为HyperLiquid需要一个预言机和价格数据源来支撑永续合约的交易。
I think they're probably they're also probably doing creating the oracle because Hyperliquid needs an oracle and needs, a price feed for the perp to trade around.
但关键是，我们现在有了一个稳健的价格数据源，直接从标普500指数接入HyperLiquid。
But that is something that, like, we have a robust price feed being piped straight into hyper liquid from the S and P 500 indices.
我觉得这简直不可思议。
I think that's absolutely nuts.
瑞安，世界上还有哪里能让你以50倍杠杆做多或做空标普500？
Where else in the world, Ryan, can you go 50 x long or short on the S and P 500?
我是说，我觉得这挺酷的。
Like, I think I don't think that's pretty cool.
是的。
Yeah.
我也真的很喜欢永续合约这个产品。
I I do, like, love perps as a product too.
我的意思是，非常有价值。
I mean, very valuable.
所以，我其实不太用永续合约。
So I well, I don't use the use perps very much.
但如果我多做交易的话，我会的，大卫。
But if if I did more trading, I would, David.
我向你保证，我会的。
I I guarantee you I would.
那我们来总结一下吧。
So let's wrap all this up.
那么，你认为关键点是什么？
And, you know, what are the takeaways?
所以刚才发生了什么？
So what just happened?
我们现在有了支持永续合约和预测市场的自托管应用，这两者是当今增长最快、规模最大的金融工具。
We've got self custodial apps that can list perps and predictions, the two biggest, fastest growing financial instruments today.
我们还拥有一种新的融资方式，在某种程度上，ICO回来了，但这次是合法的。
We've got this new way to raise capital, which at at some level, ICOs are back and they're legal this time.
你只需推出一个加密网络，之后再实现去中心化，就能获得一段宽限期。
You just launch a crypto network and decentralized later, and you get this grace period.
我们获得了完整的监管清晰度，以及对加密资产的完整分类体系。
We've got full regulatory clarity, a full taxonomy for crypto assets.
这实际上就是监管机构刚刚交付给我们的《清晰法案》。
This is effectively the CLARITY Act just delivered to us by regulator earlier.
而且，我们得到的甚至比预期的还要多。
And then we're getting more than we asked for even.
这正是加密货币领域一直所追求的，而现在我们甚至看到美国证交会推动像DTCC这样的传统金融组织将资产上链通证化。
This is everything crypto has asked for, but now we're actually getting the SEC pushing old TradFi organizations like the DTCC to tokenize on chain.
你真的能感受到这种推动力。
You actually feel this push.
他们似乎在说：嘿。
They're kind of like, hey.
我们不只是让加密货币合法化。
We're not just making the crypto stuff legal.
我们实际上是在要求传统金融行业加快步伐，进行通证化，以便现代化美国的资本市场体系。
We're actually asking TradFi to hurry up and tokenize so we can modern modernize the American capital market system.
请记住，证交会监管着8万亿到10万亿美元的资产，而商品期货交易委员会则监管着5万亿到10万亿美元。
And keep in mind, the SEC regulates 80 to $100,000,000,000,000 worth of assets, and the CFTC has 5 to 10,000,000,000,000.
我的意思是，这些是全球最深厚的资本市场。
I mean, these are the deepest capital markets in the world.
所以，为这些监管机构点赞。
So go these regulators.
所以，让世界其他地方也跟上吧。
So go the rest of the world.
这是一件巨大的事情，我知道我们仍然需要通过《清晰法案》，以将这些规定正式纳入美国的法律体系。
This is just a huge deal, and I know we still need to get the CLARITY Act done in order to enshrine this in the hard code legal system of The US.
但即使没有这部法案，我们也在获得《清晰法案》的许多好处，而且这些好处正由这些支持加密货币的监管机构直接送上门来。
But even without that, we're getting a lot of the benefits of the CLARITY Act, And it's just being delivered to us by these crypto friendly regulators.
我能暂时戴上悲观者的帽子吗？
Can I put on my pessimist hat for a second?
当然可以。
Sure.
我们正在观察的一件事是，银行正在故意拖延清晰性，因为他们乐于拖延清晰性。
So one thing we're watching happen is we're watching the banks just stall on clarity, because they are just happy to stall on clarity.
我认为他们其实并不介意清晰性失败。
They I think they're kind of fine, like having clarity fail.
而他们在另一方面做的事情是，同时也在加密货币领域进行布局。
And the what they're doing on the other side of things is they're also building in crypto at the same time.
所以他们在对清晰度踩刹车，同时也间接拖慢了整个加密行业的发展，而与此同时，他们却在大力布局自己的加密原生业务，因为他们落后了，但又在两边下注。
So they're pumping the brakes on clarity and also like therefore the rest of the crypto industry, while they are stocking up their own crypto native businesses because they are behind, but they're kind of playing both sides of the table here.
我觉得盖里·根斯勒之前做的也是同样的事。
I kind of think that's the same thing that Gary Gensler was doing.
他就是一味地拖延，拖延行业的发展，拖延，拖延，再拖延。让我感到沮丧的是，我们终于得到了所有这些我们多年来一直要求的东西——整整五六年了。
He was just like, stall, just stall the industry stall, stall, stall, stall, And like, one thing I'm bummed about is we get all of the things that we just said, which we have been asking for, for so long, for years, like five, six years now.
但我们现在却是在加密建设者热情跌至历史最低点的时候才得到这些。
And we're doing it in a time in which crypto builder energy is like, at an all time low.
投资也处于历史最低水平。
Oh, Investment is at an all time low.
想象一下，如果我们早在2021年、2022年或2023年——那时投资更旺盛，建设者热情更高——就获得这些政策支持，那该多好。
Like if imagine if we had some of this stuff in, like, 2021, 2022, 2023, when, like, investment was higher, builder energy was higher, it was, like, a more opportune time to
做这些事。
do all that stuff.
现在更应该是由加密原生建设者主导，而不是像现在这样由传统金融主导。
More crypto native builder driven rather than TradFi driven where it seems more TradFi driven now.
这都是那些传统巨头在赶上来。
It's, you know, it's all the traditional incumbents catching up.
是的，像传统金融和华尔街那些我们一直对抗的人，他们为自己争取了足够的时间，从而能分到我们刚才说的那些成果中的更大份额。
Yeah, like, the trad fi Wall Street, the people that we've been going up against have bought themselves enough time so that they get a larger share of the wins that we are just talking about.
如果我们早点得到这些，也许还能在加密原生这一端多保留一点优势。
And if we had gotten it earlier, maybe we could have retained on a little bit a little bit more of the crypto native side of the pendulum.
他们成功地拖延到了华尔街终于变得相关的时候。
And they have successfully delayed to the point where like, finally, Wall Street's relevant.
而现在，这些事情终于发生了。
And now now this stuff is happening.
但这只是只是……
But that's just that's
我明白这一点。
just I get that.
我的意思是，也许这本来就是注定要这样发展的。
I mean, maybe maybe that's how it's always destined to work out.
传统金融和华尔街必须从中获得一些好处。
There has to be something in it for for TradFi and Wall Street.
我想，即使《清晰法案》未能通过，假设银行能够无限期地拖延此事，这也很难再回头了。
I guess even if the Clarity Act doesn't pass, though, let's say banks are able to stall this indefinitely, this feels like very hard precedent to go back on.
是的。
So Yes.
即使由第二个加里·根斯勒来掌管，你认为如果他废除并撤销所有这些指引，转而宣布所有代币化资产都被禁止，他还能在法庭上获得公信力吗？
Even if you got a Gary Gensler v two, do you think that person would be credible to a court system if he repealed and revoked all of this guidance and replaced it with, like, all tokenized assets are banned?
到那时，猫已经出袋了，华尔街也已经全面入场了。
Like, at that point, the cat's already out of the bag, and Wall Street has fully come online.
我不认为有任何可能让这一切倒退回去。
Like, I don't see any world where this gets unwound.
未来政府或许能稍微缓解一下局面，但我看不到它会被彻底推翻。
It might get mitigated a little bit in a future administration, but I can't see it coming unwound.
我认为这是看涨的。
I think that's bullish.
关于特朗普的故事，你和我之前对特朗普的许多做法都提出过批评。
And with the Trump story, you and I have been critical on, Trump on a number of things.
对吧？
Right?
比如他的捞钱行为、个人致富，还有膜因币那一套。
So the grifting, the personal enrichment, the meme coin stuff.
上周，看到司法部对罗马·风暴采取行动，那里根本没有保护措施。
Last week, like, seeing the DOJ come after Roman storm, the the lack of protection there.
但你必须给他在加密货币方面的一个承诺打A+，那就是为行业带来清晰性。
But you have to give him an a plus on one promise to crypto, which is like giving clarity to the industry.
通过废除加里·根斯勒，任命支持创新、支持加密货币的SEC和CFTC。
Act getting rid of Gary Gensler and putting an SEC and CFTC in place, which are that are pro innovation and pro crypto.
从这个角度来看，就这些高管而言，我认为这值得打A+。
Like, on that score, this is an a plus grade from my perspective from the the executives here.
所以，是的。
So Yep.
是的
Yeah.
我们得到了想要的一切。
We're getting everything we wanted.
现在，这是我们去利用它的机会了。
Now I guess it's our opportunity to go do something with it.
是的
Yeah.
没错
That's right.
没错
That's right.
好的
Alright.
接下来，我们将讨论Tempo主网以及正在兴起的代理支付之争。
Coming up next, we're gonna talk about the Tempo main net and the battle for agentic payments that is arising.
MPP标准将与x402、Coinbase、Stripe、Visa和Mastercard展开竞争。
The MPP standard is going up against x four zero two, Coinbase, Stripe, mass Visa, Mastercard.
每个人都在努力构建这种代理经济。
Everyone is trying to build this agentic economy.
我确实认为，代理经济将成为未来几年互联网的主要任务线，值得密切关注。
I actually do think that the agentic economy is going to be kind of a main quest line for the next couple years of the Internet, so it's a quest line worth paying attention to.
而且，以太坊是不是在没有硬分叉的情况下，将最终性从13分钟缩短到了13秒？
And also, did Ethereum just drop finality from thirteen minutes to thirteen seconds without a hard fork?
瑞安会给我详细讲讲这件事。
Ryan's gonna tell me all about that.
但在进入所有这些新闻之前，我们先来聊聊让这个节目成为可能的几位优秀赞助商。
But first, before we get to all that news, we're gonna talk to some of these fantastic sponsors that make this show possible.
有些令人兴奋的消息。
Some exciting news.
我们即将推出一档新播客，帮助人们理解加密货币周期，以及如何应对它。
We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how to navigate it.
我认识的最棒的加密货币周期投资者，他叫迈克尔·纳托。
The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael Nato.
他运营着DeFi报告。
He runs the DeFi report.
就是这个人，在价格下跌10:10之前给我发了卖出提醒。
This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the 10:10 price drop happened.
他的周期分析一直非常精准。
His cycle analysis has been absolutely on point.
我已经关注他好几年了。
I've been following him for years.
今年，我们开始每周录制播客节目。
And this year, we started recording weekly podcast episodes.
每一期，我们都会深入探讨他的投资组合、持仓情况、市场结构、入场目标、比特币和以太坊的公允价值，以及我们所处的周期阶段。
Each one, we get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure, entry targets, fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether, and where we are in the cycle.
每周三都会发布新一期节目。
There's new episodes that are released every Wednesday.
它们时长三十分钟。
They're thirty minutes.
很短。
They're short.
简洁有力。
They're punchy.
我认为这个加密货币周期比大多数都更难把握，所以让我们一起应对。
I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most, so let's do it together.
去订阅这个播客吧。
Go subscribe to this podcast.
在你收听播客的任何平台搜索‘DeFi Report’，无论是YouTube、Apple还是Spotify，或者查看节目说明中的链接。
Search the DeFi report wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or find a link in the show notes.
现在有一期新节目在等着你。
There's a new episode waiting for you now.
又是一周，Polymarket预测市场的交易量再创新高。
Another week, another all time high in Polymarket prediction market volumes.
好的。
Okay.
所以，瑞安，在2024年选举高峰期，Polymarket的周交易量曾达到略高于10亿美元，那是什么时候？
So, Ryan, at the peak, the spike of the twenty twenty four election, there was a weekly volume of just over $1,000,000,000 traded on Polymarket, and that was when is that?
2024年11月。
November 2024.
现在我们已经进入2026年3月。
So now we are into March 2026.
我们已经连续三周，Polymarket的周交易量超过20亿美元。
We are three weeks in a row of Polymarket volumes being over $2,000,000,000 a weekly volume for three weeks in a row.
因此，我们开始回顾之前看似极高的Polymarket交易量峰值，而现在我们每周的交易量都稳定地达到那时的两倍。
And so we are starting to look back on what looks like a very high spike of Polymarket trading volumes, and we are doing double that on a consistent basis week after week after week.
我觉得这挺酷的。
I think it's pretty cool.
确实很酷。
It is cool.
我的意思是，从早期开始，我们的一个核心观点就是加密货币正在吞噬金融。
I mean, part of the our thesis from the early days has been crypto eating finance.
这几乎看起来像是加密货币正在吞噬市场，但更像是加密货币在吞噬媒体，因为这是一种全新的媒体形式。
This almost seems like it's definitely crypto eating markets, but it's like crypto eating media because this is a a new form of media.
我在媒体的各个角落都能看到这种现象。
I'm seeing it everywhere in media.
事实上，Polymarket 宣布将在华盛顿特区推出一个叫作‘情况室’的项目，这是 Polymarket 的一种实体化呈现。
And indeed, Polymarket announced something called the situation room coming to Washington DC, which is some sort of physical manifestation of of Polymarket.
Polymarket 真实存在于现实世界中。
Polymarket in real life.
是的。
Yeah.
世界上第一家专门用于监控局势的酒吧。
The world's first bar dedicated to monitoring the situation.
这是一家体育酒吧，只不过播放的不是体育赛事，而是 Polymarket 的内容。
It's a it's a sports bar, but instead of sports, it's it's Polymarket.
我很好奇这到底会变成什么样子，Polymarket 是否会开始向新闻领域迈进，你会说这是走向高端还是低端市场吗？
I'm kinda curious as to what this is going to actually be and whether Polymarket starts to go a bit, I don't know, would you call this upmarket or downmarket into the news game?
这是一种向新闻领域横向拓展。
It's a lateral move into the news game.
你甚至可以从 Kalshi 和 Polymarket 发布的大量帖子中看到，它们很多都是新闻内容。
You can even see that with a lot of the posts that, Kalshi and and Polymarket are actually doing, a lot of its news.
不过，这些预测市场也出现了一些阴暗面，还有一些问题需要解决。
There is kind of a a dark side though cropping up to some of these prediction markets, some things to get ironed out.
其中一个就是这则新闻：一位以色列记者受到了市场交易者的威胁。
And one of them was this story, which was an Israeli journalist threatened by market traders.
这到底是怎么回事？
What was this about?
他是《以色列时报》的军事记者。
This Israeli military correspondent for the Times of Israel.
他只是在报道这场冲突。
He was just reporting about the conflict.
他写了一篇关于伊朗导弹袭击的文章，这次袭击影响了一个规模相当大的Polymarket合约，该合约的交易量至少达到1400万美元，涉及伊朗是否会袭击以色列或成功将导弹击中以色列。
He wrote an article about this Iranian missile strike and that impacted this somewhat substantial Polymarket, that has, like, $14,000,000 on it, at least in trading volume about whether Iran will strike Israel or successfully land a missile in Israel.
因此，因为他报道了这件事，市场朝着某个方向清算，最终确定了结果。
And so because he reported this, a market cleared one way or the other, and so it cleared in a particular direction.
所以，市场的判定依据基本上就是《以色列时报》记者的报道内容。
So the market oracle was based on the Times of Israel correspondent journalism and what they said, basically.
这就是最终的判定依据。
That was the resolution.
是的。
Yeah.
判定的标准是：伊朗是否会袭击以色列？
The the resolution was, will Iran strike Israel?
我认为《以色列时报》或者说是哪个消息来源？
And I and I guess the times of Israel or What's the source?
一位有分量的记者会这样陈述：伊朗向以色列发射了一枚导弹。
A meaningful journalist would state the following, and this following would be like a missile fell in Israel from Iran.
所以他报道了这件事，他们就说，有一枚伊朗导弹。
So then he reported it, and they're like, there was Iranian missile.
它发生了，落在了以色列。
It happened, landed in Israel.
然后他开始收到邮件、WhatsApp消息和私信，要求他更正记录，声称导弹被拦截了。
And then he started receiving emails, WhatsApp messages, ex DMs demanding that he, quote, quote, like, the record to say that the missile was intercepted.
我不知道。
I don't know.
我不清楚这件事是否有争议。
I don't know if there was any dispute about it.
看起来似乎并没有争议。
Seems seems like there wasn't.
但当时存在威胁。
But there were threats.
有人对他本人及其家人和朋友发出了严重的威胁。
There were meaningful meaningful threats to this man and his life saying And his family and friends
也是。
too.
是的。
Yeah.
而且这人和他的亲人也遭到了连带伤害。
And just, like, collateral damage to this man and and his loved ones.
有些话是这么说的：你们让我们损失了9亿美元之后，我们会投资——抱歉。
Like, some of the quotes were saying, after you make us lose $900,000,000, we will invest excuse me.
你们让我们损失了9亿美元之后，我们会投入不少于这笔钱来彻底搞垮你。
After you make us lose $900,000, we will invest no less than to finish you.
天哪。
So yikes.
显然，他直接报了警。
Obviously so he just filed a police report.
Polymarket宣布封禁了相关账户，并将信息提供给当局。
Polymarket announced that they banned the accounts involved and will share their information with, authorities.
但这是我们需要作为预测市场行业来应对的问题——尾巴摇动了狗，也就是市场影响了现实世界，而不仅仅是现实世界单向影响市场。
But it's kind of this thing that's that we need to deal with as a prediction market industry of the tail wagging the dog of, like, the the market impacting the real world rather than it just being a one way flow from the real world impacting the markets.
我们需要管理预测市场在现实世界中引发的连锁反应。
Like, we need to kind of, like, manage the reverberations, the real world reverberate reverberations of, like, prediction markets.
是的。
Yeah.
因为存在真实的经济激励。
Because there's real financial incentives.
嗯。
And Mhmm.
在一个黑暗的世界里，这些经济激励可能会演变为暴力威胁甚至实际暴力。
In a dark world, like, some of those financial incentives can turn into threats of violence or actual violence.
记者说：我只是在报道。
And the journalist is like, I'm just reporting
老兄，我只是个记者。
Dude, I'm just a journalist.
关于 Bayt 播客
Bayt 提供中文+原文双语音频和字幕，帮助你打破语言障碍，轻松听懂全球优质播客。