汇总：加密货币的两周期限 | CLARITY法案 | 每桶100美元的油价 | OpenAI模型逃脱

我在这儿加个补充说明。

I I will put this addendum here.

这条后续推文的意思是，这两者根本不是同类比较。

It's it's not quite an apples to apples comparison is what this follow-up tweet is saying.

哦，原来如此。

Oh, okay.

因为比特币的数据包含了ETF，而黄金的数据没包括ETF。

Because the Bitcoin data includes ETFs, whereas the gold data does not include ETFs.

等等，我们到底在讨论什么？

Oh, what are we even talking about?

这数据有问题。

This is bad data.

好吧。

Alright.

继续往下说。

Moving on.

我们继续吧。

Moving on.

我的意思是，假如我们把这一点考虑进去，大概有百分之二十到三十的美国人持有某种形式的黄金，而持有比特币的人比例仍然相当高。

Well, I mean, so like, let's say it's, you know, if you adjust for that, let's say it's like maybe like 20 or 30% of Americans that own gold in some form, the percent that own Bitcoin is still pretty high.

大概是百分之十九。

It's like 19%.

关键问题是，我们还能不能说这个资产类别还处于早期阶段？

It's just a question of, can we still say we're early with this asset class?

现在几乎人人都知道加密货币和区块链这个词。

And now literally everyone knows the word crypto and blockchain.

所以，不，我们已经不算早期了。

And so like, no, we're no longer early.

这并不意味着价格不会上涨，比特币和黄金之间的估值差距依然存在。

Doesn't mean that like prices aren't going up, like valuations between Bitcoin or gold are still different.

你这么安排这个环节，倒让我想起了一些事。

You know, I do this does kinda just remind me the way that you that you set up this segment.

说实话，这还真让我想起2021年的时候，我们那时候天天聊政府债务、聊货币贬值，感觉特别带劲。

It's like, it does kinda remind me is like, back in 2021, we were talking about government debt, you know, debasement so much and it felt so good.

现在大家都不怎么提这些了。

And we don't talk about that anymore.

现在满嘴都是迈克尔·塞勒，哥们儿。

We just talk about fucking Michael Saylor, dude.

好吧，

Well,

我是说，我们很少讨论这个，因为我有个观点，就是世界在同一时间只能关注少数几件事。

I mean, we don't talk about it because I kinda have this thesis that the world can only focus on a few things at, you know, at the same time.

对，没错。

And No.

我完全同意这一点。

I totally agree with that.

在资产类别方面，投资者确实也是这样。

That's very true with investors as well in terms of asset classes.

所以目前，投资者都在关注人工智能。

So right now, investors are focused on AI.

现在就是人工智能的行情。

It's AI trade.

所以这些力量，这些债务不断累积的长期趋势，还有各国的资产负债表问题，其实并没有消失。

And so these forces, these secular forces of debt accumulation and, you know, balance sheet of of countries, they have not gone away.

它们确实还在。

They have Yeah.

速度已经加快了。

Have have accelerated.

现在报应来了，而且拖得越久，对比特币越有利，时间站在我们这边。

Come home to roost, and the longer it goes on, the the better it like, time is on Bitcoin's side.

没错。

That's right.

硬资产，硬通货，时间站在我们这边。

Hard assets, hard bearer assets, time is on our side.

我就在想，我真是

And I'm just like, I don't

不知道，Ryan。

know, Ryan.

我感觉自己老了。

I feel like I'm getting old.

真是

It's a

现在的形势很不错。

good setup here.

我们就这么说吧。

We'll we'll just say that.

形势确实不错。

It's a good setup.

形势确实不错。

It's a good setup.

大卫，我们来聊聊这个接下来的事。

David, let's talk about this next.

最大的以太坊增持者汤姆·李，最近放缓了买入步伐。

The biggest ETH accumulator, that's Tom Lee, has slowed its buying.

他们能突破那5%的魔法门槛吗？

Are they gonna get beyond the alchemy of 5%?

还有，我们熟悉的SEC委员赫斯特·皮尔斯谈到了金库。

And also, our favorite SEC commissioner, Hester Peirce, talks about vaults.

她管这叫‘夏日金库’，在新演讲里提到的，夏日金库？

Summer vaults, she calls it, in a new speech Summer summer vaults?

或者说是夏天的金库？

Or Summer

金库和空翻。

vaults and somersaults.

我刚看了我孩子。

Saw my kids.

意识到她刚才玩了个谐音梗。

Realize she punned that.

太妙了。

That's so good.

她真聪明。

She's brilliant.

接下来我们会聊到这些以及更多内容，不过在此之前，我们要感谢让本期节目得以呈现的赞助商们。

We'll talk about all this and more, but before we do, we wanna thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.

我交易加密货币资产快十年了，用过各种钱包、交易所、聚合器和前端界面，其实我一直在找同样的东西。

I've been trading crypto assets for almost a decade, and I've used so many wallets, exchanges, aggregators, front ends, and I'm kinda always looking for the same thing.

就是一个统一的界面，能在多条链和各种资产上提供深度流动性，同时还能保持隐私，而且我自己完全掌控资金。

One interface with deep liquidity across a bunch of chains and assets and the ability to act in private, and I still control my own funds.

但我一直没找到这样的平台，总是得换来换去，还得操心Gas费，或者被滑点坑了。

And I've never really found it, and I'm always switching wallets, juggling gas fees, or getting eaten by slippage.

对我来说，Near.com 在本质上感觉完全不一样。

Near.com feels fundamentally different to me.

我的账户用起来特别顺手，不管在哪个链上，想做什么操作都能直接搞定，而且所有活动都保持私密。

My account is easy to use, and I can take all the actions I want from any chain while my activity remains confidential.

它运行在 NEAR 链上，这条链已经用量子安全签名完成了超过 230 亿美元的跨链交易，而且五年来一直稳定运行。

It runs on NEAR, which has moved over $23,000,000,000 cross chain using Post Quantum Signing and has over five years of uptime.

Near.com 是你真正掌控链上资产的最佳选择。

Near.com is the best way to be on chain and be in control.

通过节目描述里的银行列表链接，你能拿回 20% 的交易手续费。

Get 20% of your trading fees back through the bank list link.

链接在节目说明里，但这不是投资建议。

It's in the show notes, not investment advice.

交易方式正在改变，不是慢慢变，是现在就变了。

Trading is changing, not gradually, right now.

OKX 刚刚在 App 里直接上线了交易机器人。

OKX just launched Trading Bots directly inside the OKX app.

网格交易、定投、套利，你设好策略后，它就会 24 小时自动执行。

Grid trading, DCA, arbitrage, you set your strategy once, and it executes around the clock.

不用整天盯着图表，不用手动下单，睡觉的时候也不会错过行情。

No staring at charts all day, no manual entries, no missing moves while you're asleep.

而且这是第一次，自动化交易真的变得很简单。

And for the first time, automated trading actually feels simple.

不过 OKX 的野心不止于交易。

But OKX is thinking bigger than just trading.

他们还推出了代理支付协议，这是一个开放标准，让 AI 代理能在链上执行完整的商业交易。

They also launched the agent payments protocol, an open standard that lets AI agents execute full commercial transactions on chain.

以太坊基金会、Uniswap 和 AWS 都在基于它进行开发，而且现在它已经在美国家上线了。

The Ethereum Foundation, Uniswap, and AWS are already building on it, and now it's live inside The United States.

新用户在存款和交易时，可以通过 Bankless 链接获得最高 500 美元的比特币。

And new users who deposit and trade can get up to $500 in Bitcoin through the bankless link.

链接在节目简介里，大家可以去了解更多详情。

The link is in the show notes to learn more.

这不算投资建议。

Not investment advice.

纽约和德克萨斯州不提供此服务。

Not available in New York or Texas.

市场从来不是只动一个资产。

Markets don't move one asset at a time.

今天可能是比特币，明天是英伟达，接着是黄金，然后是标普500。

One day, it's Bitcoin, the next, Nvidia, then gold, and then the S and P.

但大多数交易员还是得在不同平台、不同账户和不同资金池之间来回管理投资组合。

But most traders are still managing their portfolio across different platforms, different accounts, and different pools of capital.

Bitget 刚刚改变了这一切。

Bitget just changed that.

他们的新产品 Stocks 2.0 让你直接用 USDT 交易代币化股票，全部都在你平时用的同一个加密货币 App 里完成。

Their new Stocks two point o product lets you trade tokenized equities directly with USDT, all inside the same app you already use for crypto.

这不只是又一个代币化股票产品。

This is not just another tokenized stock product.

Stocks 2.0 的设计聚焦于更深的流动性、更快的成交速度，以及市场上最低的手续费——仅 0.04%，并且完全一对一跟踪标的股票的走势。

Stocks two point o is designed around deeper liquidity, faster execution, and the lowest fees on the market at just point zero four percent and one to one economic exposure to the underlying stock.

股息、股票分割和其他公司行为都会自动更新，确保你的持仓始终与目标资产保持一致。

Dividends, stock splits, and other corporate actions are reflected automatically, helping your position stay aligned with the asset you actually want exposure to.

一个平台，一个账户，覆盖多个市场——加密资产、股票、大宗商品，全部用USDT交易。

One platform, one account, multiple markets, crypto equities, commodities, and more, all accessible with USDT.

BitGet。

BitGet.

更聪明地交易。

Trade smarter.

点击节目简介中的链接，立即开始交易。

Start trading today through the link in the show notes.

这不是投资建议。

This is not investment advice.

瑞安，我记得我跟你说过，BitMine得彻底突破5%，不能停在5%，因为那才是看涨信号。

Ryan, I believe you remember me talking about how BitMine needs to abandon 5% and just blow past 5% because that's bullish.

对。

Yeah.

你之前好像在说，应该往10%靠拢。

You were advocating something closer to 10% maybe.

对。

Yeah.

所以我就在Twitter上问了BitMine那边的一位负责人，他们有什么打算。

So I was able to ask on Twitter, one of the BitMine individuals about what their plan was.

我就问他们：你们到5%的时候准备怎么办？

And I said, hey, are you guys what what are you guys going to do when you hit 5%?

这是问的BitMine那边的杨。

And this is to to Young who is at BitMine.

他回复我说：嗨，大卫。

He goes, hi, David.

目前我们计划就停在5%，这点汤姆已经公开说过好几次了。

At this point, we plan to stop at 5% as Tom has mentioned publicly a few times.

我们正在评估各种提升长期股东价值的战略方案，等时机成熟会及时公布。

We are currently evaluating various strategic options to boost the long term shareholder value and we'll disclose appropriately in due time.

谢谢。

Thanks.

所以5%还是5%，他们现在大概在4.85%左右。

So 5% is still 5% and they are at like 4.85% right now.

他们又在用别的办法处理那些凭空冒出来的资金。

And so they are doing something else with their capital that magically appears in their pockets.

那些凭空出现在BitMine账上的钱，我也不清楚是怎么来的。

The money that magically appears in BitMine's pockets don't know how it doesn't know Yeah.

真不知道这钱是从哪儿冒出来的。

Don't know how it gets there.

他们没在卖ETH，至少也没在低于净资产值的时候卖BMNR。

They're not selling ETH, and they are seemingly not selling BMNR at least below NAV.

Kim在这条推文里也说了这一点。

This is what they say in this tweet also from Kim.

这周BitMine圈子里最大的消息，就是他们开始回购股票了。

The big news in BitMine in the BitMine universe this week is that they are buying back shares.

天啊。

Wow.

BMNR的股票，他们还说不会低于净资产价值出售BMNR，同时还在继续买入ETH。

BMNR shares, and they are also saying they are they are not selling BMNR below NAV, and they are somehow still buying ETH.

我不清楚他们这周买了多少ETH，但肯定买了一些。

I don't know how much ETH they bought this week but it was it was some.

他们现在是4.8%。

They are at 4.8%.

他们会继续缓慢地推进。

They will continue to make a slow March.

他们用这些资金把比例推到5%，并且以每股平均15.62美元的价格回购了550万股BMNR普通股。

They use a bunch of those there to 5% and they are buying back 5,500,000 BMNR shares common stock buyback at a $15.62 average.

我还是搞不懂他们的钱到底从哪儿来的，但他们确实在继续买ETH。

Again, I don't know where the fuck they get their money from but they're not they're still buying ETH.

他们正在回购BMNR的股票。

They're buying back BMNR shares.

你能给我解释一下这是怎么回事吗？

Can anyone explain this to me?

这笔钱到底是从哪儿来的？

Where does the money come from?

我也不清楚。

I don't know.

这部分我真说不上来。

I can't explain that part to you.

咱们就先放一放吧，也许汤姆·李能讲明白。

So we'll just take that, you know, Tom Lee maybe could explain that.

我不确定这是否属于

I'm not I'm not sure if that's part

他的讨论范围。

his like, discussion.

这些问题不太合适。

These questions aren't appropriate.

好的。

Alright.

既然他有钱，那我们就从这点出发吧。

He's got the money, so let's take it from there.

所以他们的策略稍微有点调整。

So they're changing their strategy a little bit.

我是Young，再次出现。

This is this is Young again.

其实最近的更新主要是为了整合。这周他们回购了550万股。那些凭空出现的资金，他们没有拿去大量买入以太坊，而是只买了一点点，反而把这笔钱——也就是Tom Lee提到的那部分预算——用在了股票回购上。

Really the updates to consolidate them are, this week they bought back 5,500,000 shares, the money that magically appears, rather than buying much more ETH, they bought a tiny bit of ETH, instead, they spent that, those funds, the Tom Lee allowance, on shares.

回购的是BMNR的股票。

BMNR shares, buying it back.

他还提到一点，我们不会在净值以下进行自动交易。

And he also said this, we do not ATM at below NAV.

来自外部来源的净值计算往往过时或者不准确。

NAV calculations from external sources are often outdated or incorrect.

他们正在缓慢地向5%推进，也就是说，大卫，目前他们持有的ETH占总量的4.8%。

They're doing this slow march to 5%, so this means, David, they're at 4.8% of total ETH supply.

说不定他们还得再花几个月时间。

You know, maybe they'll take another set of months.

他们完全可以用六个月来完成。

They could they could take six months.

花十二个月来拿下最后那0.2%的ETH，然后就宣布暂停。

They could take twelve months to get that final point 2% of ETH, and then they're calling it paused at that point in time.

他们没有用这笔钱继续买入更多ETH，而是通过回购BMNR股票，让每位股东分到的ETH变多了。

And instead of buying more ETH for the balance sheet, what they're doing is they're treating their shareholders to more ETH per share by buying back BMNR shares.

说实话，我挺欣赏这个策略的。

So I kind of like this strategy, I gotta say.

我知道你可能会想，他们得冲过5%才行，得拿得更多才行。

Because I know you you're like, oh, they gotta blow past and get to, you know, higher percent

我之所以说他们必须超过5%，是因为——不好意思。

The reason why I say they need to blow past 5% is because though I'm sorry.

在这个规模下，还有谁是以太坊的边际买家呢？

Who else is the marginal buyer of ETH at this size?

除了比特矿，没人会买这么多以太坊。

Like, no one is buying this much ETH Sure.

除了比特矿之外。

Other than BitMine.

当比特矿说他们不买了的时候。

And so when BitMine says, we're done.

我就想，那接下来是谁呢？

I'm like, oh, well, who's next?

他们说的是，这个阶段结束了。

They're they're saying they're done for this era.

对。

Sure.

接下来是谁，确实是个问题。

There there's a question of who's next.

但对于BMNR的持有者来说，还有汤姆·李的信誉和他说到做到的作风，这一点非常重要。

But I would say for BMNR holders and for the legitimacy and integrity of, like, Tom Lee, and like, the whole doing what you say you will do.

他现在正是在做他当初承诺要做的事。

He's doing exactly what he said we would do.

没错。

That's

对。

right.

第一步是达到5%，没错。

Was like, step one, get to five Yep.

他现在已经快到5%了。

And he's almost at 5%.

接下来第二步，看起来他是打算稳固股东结构，保护BMNR的股东利益。

Now step two, it looks like what he's going to do is really shore up shareholders and protect BMNR shareholders.

是的。

Yeah.

他们对此肯定特别高兴。

And they've gotta be fantastically happy about that.

没错。

So Right.

这是他计划的第二步，下一步会怎样我们还不知道，但我确实很佩服，他不仅说到做到，还一直在保护股东的利益。

That's step two of his plan, and we'll see what what step three is, but I guess I'm impressed that he's doing exactly what he said he would do and also protecting the interests of shareholders.

而迈克尔·塞勒那边呢，却陷入了类似三体问题的困境，比如

So whereas Michael Saylor has this kind of three body problem of like

是的。

Yeah.

比特币的社会契约，他只买不卖，之类的。

Bitcoin social contract, I only buy, I never stop selling, like

相比之下，BMNR的出售干净利落多了。

BMNR sale is so clean by comparison.

要干净得多，而且一切都在按计划进行。

It's much cleaner, and it's going exactly according to plan.

顺便说一句，这并不排除未来出现另一种情况的可能性。比如一两年后，局势发生变化，Tom Lee 可能会说，好吧，我们决定把目标定在 7% 左右之类的。

And this doesn't preclude, by the way, another era where, I don't know, a year from now, two years from now, things change, something changes, and Tom Lee is, okay, we've decided to go to 7% or something like that.

但关键在于，这个实体言行一致，说到做到，这会给市场带来进一步的支持和溢价，建立起信任。毕竟归根结底，股东是资金的来源，赢得他们的信任至关重要。

But the expectations of this entity doing what it says it will do, just give it further support and premium in the market, trust, trust for their shareholders who the source of funding is coming from at the end of the day.

确实。

Yeah.

作为像 BMNR 这样的利益相关方，你肯定会高兴坏了。

As a BMNR like stakeholder, you would just be super happy.

挺酷的。

It's like, cool.

第一步搞定，现在我的利益得到提升了。

Plan one done and now now my interests are being elevated.

我之前一直强调那个5%的指标，是因为这是BMNR服务以太坊的主要方式，也是以太坊社区对BMNR的期待。

And why I was kind of emphasizing the five like, blowing past the 5% thing is because that's, like, the leading way in which BMNR services Ethereum and, like, what the Ethereum community wants out of BMNR.

他们也在做其他事情，也许没超过5%，但他们在资助以太坊系统、机构隐私项目，还有以太坊实验室。

They're doing other things, Maybe they're not blowing past 5%, but they're, funding ETH systems, the institutional privacy, ETH labs.

他们正在为整个以太坊生态提供资金支持，这太棒了，作为一个上市公司能这么做，真的让人非常感激。

And so they're funding a lot of the Ethereum ecosystem, which is phenomenal and like super grateful that that they're doing that as a public company.

现在他们正在从试图买入ETH或相关资产，转向专注于收购BMN和R。

It's just like now they are transitioning from trying to buy ETH or the asset to trying to buy BMN and R.

归根结底，他们毕竟是一家以盈利为目的的上市公司。

And so like of course at the end of the day they are for profit public company.

他们得照顾好自己的利益，而目前的做法正是在这么做。

They need to take care of themselves and they're just doing that.

设想一个看涨的情景：他们成功达到了5%的持有比例，对吧？

Here's a bull case scenario where they get their 5%, right?

这样一来，他们就完全有动力推动以太坊价格上涨了。

So now they're completely incented for ETH value to go up.

接下来这个阶段，这个新周期，核心就是推动以太坊价格上涨，对吧？

And this next season, this next era is all about ETH value up, right?

通过ETH Labs，以及其他投资，持续建设整个生态。

Through ETH Labs, through other investments developing the ecosystem.

我觉得 Fill 和 Chill 最近表现还不错。

So I think it's going pretty well for Filled and chill.

Fill

Filled

那 BMR 这周股价怎么样？

and How's BMR stock on the week?

根据这则消息，它的表现如何？

Like what's the was it performing based on this news?

我猜应该是这样，不过我还没看过它的价格走势图。

I would expect it to but I haven't looked at a price chart for this.

它现在的净值是107亿美元，也就是他们资产负债表上持有的以太币价值。

Well, it's at NAV and so it is $10,700,000,000 which is how much ether that they have on the balance sheet.

过去一个月涨了8%，过去六个月跌了43%，不过以太坊本身也跌了这么多。

It is up 8% in the last month, down 43% in the last six months, but also ETH is down that much too.

我们接下来会

We'll have

看看这种消息出来后，它的表现如何，我们推测BMNR还会继续买入。

to see how it does on the back of this type of news and and more we would presume purchases of BM and R.

你知道的，就是那些股票。

You know, you know, shares.

对，也许我每周收到的汤姆·李通知会从‘汤姆·李买了ETH’变成‘汤姆·李回购了BMNR’。

Yeah, maybe maybe that notification of Tom Lee staring at me in the face that I get every single week flips from Tom Lee just bought ETH to Tom Lee bought back BMNR.

而且我还是要问，这笔钱到底从哪儿来的？

And once again, I will still ask the question, where the F does the money come from?

这事儿本来就理所当然。

That's, that's just a given.

它就是刚

It just it just got

把它保存下来。

to save it.

别问那么多问题。

Don't don't ask questions.

迟早得认命了。

At some point, have to just capitulate.

很明显，他就是台印钞机。

It's like, well, he owns a money printer clearly.

我干脆直接买进这个资产吧。

I'm going to buy the asset.

咱们聊聊赫斯特·皮尔斯关于金库的事。

Let's talk about Hester Peirce on vaults.

哦，这是她演讲的标题。

So oh, this is the title of her speech.

她讲的是‘倒立与夏日金库’。

It was headstands and summer vaults.

真巧妙。

Clever

太棒了。

as So good.

她当时在说什么呢？

What was she

这篇帖子里面讨论的是什么？

talking about in this post?

我不知道你有没有听我这周做的那一期关于金库的节目，瑞安，那期节目叫《金库：一颗定时炸弹》。

Okay, so I don't know if you listened to the episode that I did this week about vaults, Ryan, but the episode was our vaults a ticking time bomb.

那到底什么是金库呢？

And what is a Vault?

是的。

Yeah.

咱们先把这个背景说清楚。

You know, let's set the context.

我们现在到底在聊什么？

What are we talking about?

金库。

Vault.

它是加密领域的一个基础概念，从 DeFi 夏天起就存在了。

It's a primitive in crypto that has been around since DeFi summer.

像那些早期的 Bankless 听众肯定还记得，也知道 Yearn 这个平台。

Like, OG bankless listeners will remember and still know yearn.

Yearn 创建了金库。

Yearn created a vault.

你把钱放进去，它会在整个生态系统中分配资金，以优化收益。

You put your money in, it allocates capital across the ecosystem to optimize for yield.

而且你知道，金库其实可以是任何东西。

And, you know, a vault can really be anything.

这是一个非常开放的定义。

It's such an open ended category.

你知道，智能合约可以做得非常完善。

You know, smart contracts are turned complete.

一个金库想做什么就做什么。

A tar a vault can do whatever it wants.

它可以把资金分配给一个外部拥有账户，也就是说，有人可以把这笔钱提走，离链投资，之后再把钱存回来。

You know, it can give, it can allocate money to an EOA, an externally owned account, which means that somebody can just take that money off chain, invest in it, and and then put the money back eventually.

根本没有什么条款限制，它几乎能做任何事。

There's really no terms and conditions, and it can kinda do anything.

所以有些资金池非常自动化。

And so some vaults are very automated.

资金池可以为其他资金池提供资金。

Vaults can feed other vaults.

没错。

Right.

这些资金池又能继续为更多资金池供资，层层递进。

Which can feed other vaults which can feed other vaults.

这样一来，组合的可能性就变得极其庞大。

So the permutations can get very, very large.

它们看起来就像对冲基金。

They look like hedge funds.

它们看起来就像是代币化的对冲基金。

They look like tokenized hedge funds.

因为你把钱存入金库时——通常是USDC，但也可能是ETH或比特币——你会收到一张收据代币。

Because when you put your money into a vault, usually USCC, but also ETH or or Bitcoin, when you put your money into a vault, you get a receipt token back.

你拿到的就像是流动性提供者代币。

You get like an LP token.

相当于我拥有这个金库的这么一份份额。

It's like I I own this much, this share of this vault.

你可以把这张LP代币作为抵押品，放进借贷池借出更多钱，再投回某个金库。

You can go and collateralize that LP token in some lending pool to borrow more money to put more money back into some vault.

于是这就形成了一片错综复杂的暗森林，金库之间相互喂养，还彼此抵押。

And so it's a dark forest of interdependencies and connections and vaults feeding vaults collateralized by vaults.

情况变得非常复杂。

It gets very hairy.

听起来可能挺吓人，因为确实也挺吓人的。

It probably sounds scary because it kinda is.

有些金库非常安全。

Some vaults are just super safe.

有些金库还算稳妥。

Some vaults are fine.

所有的金库都有管理员或策展人，负责决定资金投向。

They're all vaults have managers, curators that determine where the money goes.

有些金库风险更高一些。

Some vaults are more risky than others.

有些则极其安全。

Some are super safe.

有些则全力追求收益最大化。

Some are, like, really trying to optimize for yield.

这引起了赫斯特·皮尔斯和SEC的关注，可能早就注意到了，最终促使她写了一篇文章，提醒大家：在我们搞清楚怎么应对这套体系之前，别急着往前冲。

And this has caught the attention of Hester Peirce and the SEC, probably has for a while, and then commit, like, compelled her to write this article about, like, yo, like, guys, I don't pump the brakes over here before we figure out, like, how to deal with this whole structure.

Vault Orion的支持者认为，我们加密行业、智能合约和去中心化金融，已经成功重建了传统金融的资本结构——也就是代币化的对冲基金和投资经理。

Vault Orion, the the bull case for this is that we, the crypto industry, smart contracts, DeFi have successfully rebuilt like TradFi capital structure, tokenized tokenized hedge funds, you know, investment managers.

这些底层逻辑都是一样的。

It's all the same primitives.

现在它们被用在了加密货币里。

Now we have it in crypto.

这就是看涨的理由。

That's the bull case.

看跌的观点是，整个金库生态系统里没人承担任何责任。

The bear case is that no one in the vault ecosystem has any sort of liability whatsoever.

比如Morpho，它是个金库技术平台，你可以用它来搭建各种金库。

So you have Morpho, is like a vault tech platform where you can build all these vaults.

他们说，我们只是个技术平台。

And they're like, we're just a tech platform.

我们不承担任何责任。

We don't take any liability.

他们确实不承担。

And they don't.

他们确实不该承担。

And they shouldn't.

然后所有的策展人都说：我们只是策展方。

And then all the curators are like, oh, we're just a curator.

我们不承担任何责任。

Like, we don't take any liability.

我们真不承担。

We don't.

我们不负责任。

We're not liable.

所以没人愿意担责，因为这是一个无许可的、基于智能合约的去中心化金融生态。

And so no one is taking any sort of liability because it's a permissionless smart contract based DeFi ecosystem.

这正是关键所在。

That's the whole point.

但海斯特说：得有人出来担责啊，各位。

But then Hester is like, somebody needs to take liability here, guys.

是的

Yeah.

所以这就是目前金库架构的大致情况。

And so that's kinda that's kinda the the broad strokes of the current, like, vault setup.

对。

Yeah.

她说了几点。

She says a few things.

其中一个观点，是关于‘倒立’和‘夏季金库’这个标题的。

So one of her quotes, this is back to the headstands and summer vaults title.

如果你靠倒立、后空翻这些花招来曲解法律，让它不适用，那你迟早会摔得很惨。

If you do headstands, backflips, and other gymnastics to read the law so that it does not apply, you will have a painful fall.

她在演讲中基本想表达的是，你提到的这些金库，看起来确实很像证券。

She's basically saying in the speech is some of these vaults, as you say, they kind of look a lot like securities.

代币化的对冲基金，没错。

Tokenized hedge funds, yeah.

我们测试的方式，实际上适用于很多这类情况。她说，如果金库的部署者或保管人的创业或管理努力参与其中，那这个金库很可能更偏向于证券那一端。

How we test, right, is actually applicable to many of these If the vault's deployer, she says, and Curator's entrepreneurial or managerial efforts are involved, it's probably the Vault is probably more on the security side of the spectrum.

我特别喜欢赫斯特，我知道你也一样，这观点太到位了。

And what I love about Hester, I know we both love this, is Mhmm.

她是一位秉持原则的首位监管者。

She's a principal's first regulator.

那么，我们这里真正讨论的原则到底是什么？

So, like, what's the principle that we're actually talking about here?

简单说，投资者应该获得公平的信息披露，一旦涉及管理行为，就必须有人承担责任。

Well, it's like investors should have fair disclosure, and there should also be accountability when there's managerial efforts involved.

你只是定义了一个故障点，把钱存到链上，然后就能获得收益。

And you just define a fault, it's just a place you put your money in, on chain, and you get yield out of that.

而这种收益的产生，往往依赖于他人大量的管理努力。

And kind of the yield factory that's created could depend on a lot of managerial efforts of others.

委托代理问题，这正是SEC存在的意义——就是用来应对委托代理问题的。

The principal agent problem, which is what the SEC is for, is managing the principal agent problem.

没错。

That's right.

这其实让人回想起一点以前的事。

And so this, you know, this harkens back to a little bit.

那时候的收益模式，不像现在这样只是链上金库，2021到2022年我们很多收益都是这么做的，挺不错的。

It's just not an on chain vault, but it's the way we did a lot of sort of yield back in 2021, 2022 was Good

过去的好时光。

old days.

BlockFi、Celsius，哦，不是说那些。

BlockFi, Celsius Oh, not those.

那可是糟糕透顶的时期。

Bad bad days, actually.

对吧？

Right?

那些其实就像不透明的金库，结果导致大量投资者的资金血本无归。

So that that was like vaults essentially that were not transparent, and they they caused the downfall of a lot of investor funds as a result.

所以她是在防范这种情况。

So she's kind of guarding against that.

但她并没有说：‘重点是这个。’

But she's not saying here's the thing.

她再次强调，与传统金融相比，这些金库在某些方面更透明，因此她并不主张直接把完整的证券监管套用到这些东西上。

Again, She is saying that vaults are more transparent than TradFi in some ways, so she's not necessarily advocating for bolting the four, like, full securities regulation onto these things.

也许另有别的办法。

Maybe it's something else.

但她确实发出了警告，竖起旗子说：嘿，有些金库其实跟证券很像。

But she is just warning like putting the flag out and saying, hey, some these vaults are a lot like securities.

你们得清楚自己在做什么。

You guys know what you're doing here.

如果是证券，就会被当作证券来处理。

If it's a security, it'll be treated like a security.

你真得佩服赫斯特，因为如果是加里·根斯勒，他早就说：你们全都是未经注册的证券发行方，等着坐牢吧，还得被罚得倾家荡产。

You really have to appreciate Hester because if this was Gary Gensler, for example, he would be like, you guys are all securities issuers and you're unregistered and we're going to take you to jail and issue you wealth

注意到了。

notices.

而且

And

赫斯特说：我这里有些顾虑。

Hester is like, hey, like I have some concerns here.

但我得弄明白，这么硬套上去到底行不行。

But I gotta understand Figure this bolting out.

把1940年投资公司法直接套在不可变合约上，既不贴切，也解决不了任何问题——我觉得这话没错。

On the this is the I think a quote, bolting on the '40 the nineteen forties act onto immutable contracts fits nothing and solves nothing.

所以我们得好好理清这个问题。

And so let's figure this out.

所以你真得认可赫斯特的态度，她说：喂，

And so you do have to appreciate Hester being like, hey.

这里正酝酿着一个问题。

There's a there's a problem growing here.

咱们来想想怎么解决这个问题。

Let's figure out how to do this.

瑞安，我的乐观看法是，要想让资金库真正发展起来，必须有人承担起责任。

And, like, my my bull case for this, Ryan, is that in order for vaults to grow and to become their best self, somebody needs to take liability.

其实，承担这个责任的一方并不一定是吃亏的，因为他们有机会赚取更多费用，分享更大的增长收益。

And that's actually not bearish for the party that does take liability because they should be able to capture more fees, grow in the upside.

他们只需要合规地承担责任，并接受证交会的监管就行。

They just need to, you know, have have liability compliantly and be overseen by the SEC.

只要有了明确的监管框架，更多资金就会觉得安心，愿意流入这些产品。

And then there's some regulation around this thing, and then more money will feel safer going into the bulls.

所以这其实是个看涨的逻辑。

So it's bull case.

大卫，你是打算亲自来承担这个责任吗？

Are are you stepping up here to take liability here, David?

你意思是你愿意担这个责？

Is that what you're doing?

我？

Me?

你是自愿做这个的吗？

Are you volunteering to do this?

我是个做广播的，哥们儿。

I am a broadcaster, dude.

我只是制作一些关于这方面的教育内容。

I just make educational content about this.

我正在进行一系列关于金库的对话，因为第一期节目我请了朋友安德鲁，他的创业公司正是去中心化金融之所以好的原因。

I'm I am going on a series of vault conversations because I did the first episode with my friend Andrew and like his startup is the reason why DeFi is good.

他的创业公司就像照亮了金库的依赖关系一样。

His startup just like illuminates the vault dependencies.

所以如果你把钱放进这个金库，你能看到钱去了哪里，然后从这儿到那儿，整个过程都是实时可视的。

So if you put your money in this vault, this is where it goes, and then it goes from here to there, then it go and it's and you can see it in real time.

这就像我非常喜欢的那个比喻一样。

It's like your your metaphor that I love.

去看看你银行账户的源代码。

Inspect source for your bank account.

看看你资金库的源代码。

View source for your vault.

你该了解清楚。

You should know.

我们有一个例子，能说明我们能做到什么。

The that we have that illustrates what we can do.

没错。

That's right.

但他能看出来，这迟早会变成个问题。

But then he's the one that has the perspective of just like, well, this is going to become a problem.

那咱们来聊聊这个。

Well, like, let's talk about this.

该由谁来负责？

Who should take responsibility?

我的意思是，已经有不少倡导者了。

I mean, there there there's been a number of advocates.

我们稍后再说Morpho。

We'll talk about Morpho in a second.

另一个是Bitwise。

Another is Bitwise.

我们请过Matt Hogan，他提到过，vaults非常重要，Bitwise正在大力投资vaults。

Matt Hogan, we've had him on, he's talked about vaults being a big deal, that Bitwise is investing in in vaults.

你可以看到，Bitwise所使用的vaults，其声誉和品牌也押上了赌注。

You could see the vaults that that Bitwise procures does have some skin in the game with respect to reputational brand on the line here.

如果Bitwise的vault出了问题，那肯定会拖累Bitwise的股价。

So if a Bitwise vault fails in some way, right, that's going to cost Bitwise stock price.

确实，他们的声誉和品牌是绑在上面的，但话虽如此。

It's, you know, like there is some reputational stake skin in the game, but Right.

但光这样可能还不够。

That still is probably not enough.

他们需要更多。

They need more.

他们需要更大的回报空间。

They need more upside.

所以，是的，这些资金托管人——也就是决定资金投向的人——得拿走更多的分成。

So, yeah, it's the vault curators, the people making the decisions about where the money goes, they need to take more money as a cut.

他们得比现在的托管人赚得更多才行。

They need to become more profitable than the current curators.

我觉得Bitwise才是正确的选择。

Bitwise, I think, is the correct institution.

我不清楚Stakewise对此怎么看，这个我不确定。

I don't know how Stakewise feels about this, but Stakewise, I don't know.

我能看到Stakewise和Bitwise这样的机构逐渐兴起。

I could see emerging of like Stakewise and Bitwise.

我不太清楚这两家公司的市值，但我完全能想象Bitwise收购其他公司，然后把这一块做成一个全新行业：有人愿意承担法律责任，因为他们已经向SEC注册并合规了。

I don't know their market caps of these two companies, but I could totally see Bitwise, like, acquiring and then turn like, verticalizing this into a new industry where somebody's taking on legal liability because they are SEC registered and compliant.

是的。

Yeah.

既然你提到了Morpho，他们确实允许任何人创建金库。

So since you mentioned Morpho earlier, of course, they let anyone spin up a vault.

他们正处于这个生态的核心位置。

They're at kind of the center of this.

Morpho团队的Chris说，他们非常感谢赫斯特·皮尔斯，并且正在与SEC的加密货币工作组积极沟通。

And and Chris from the Morpho team says they're they're thankful for Hester Peirce, and they're engaging with the crypto task force at the SEC around this.

你可以预期，这些对话可能会带来一些监管上的明确性，Morpho和SEC现在已经建立了联系，这非常好。

So you'd imagine some regulatory clarity might come out of those conversations, and and Morpho and the SEC are now engaged, which is great.

对。

Yeah.

Chris和Morpho团队的其他人确实发过一张照片，显示他们真的在华盛顿特区或者SEC办公室里。

You you Chris and a few of the other Morpho team, they were they posted a photo of them literally being at maybe DC or at the SEC office, wherever that is.

所以，不管赫斯特在金库行业里做什么，Morpho肯定都在密切关注，因为他们才是推动金库模式的主要力量。

And so, you know, whatever Hester in the vaults industry is doing, you could imagine Morpho is paying attention to, because they they are, like, the main propagators of vaults.

他们没在做这个。

They're not doing it.

他们只是个无许可的金库平台。

They're just a permissionless vault platform.

说到Morpho，Morpho Midnight已经发布了，这又是一种创建更多金库的方式。

Speaking of Morpho, Morpho Midnight got released, and it's just another way to make more vaults.

目前的金库都是开放式的，你可以随时存钱，随时取出来。

Vaults the current form of vaults are all open ended, so you can put your money in, take it out whenever.

Morpho Midnight是固定利率、固定期限的，这种模式我们以前还没见过。

Morpho Midnight is fixed rate fixed term, which is not yet a primitive that we've seen.

至于固定利率加固定期限，对我来说，作为加密原生用户，就是：我想拥有无许可的访问权限。

And fixed rate fixed term, like, for me, the crypto native is like, well, it's like, I I want my permissionless access.

我想获得最高收益。

I want the maximum yield.

我对这些玩意儿根本不感兴趣。

I don't care about I don't care about this stuff.

传统金融特别喜欢这种东西。

TradFi loves this stuff.

而这也正是利率曲线自然形成的机制——通过开放式的市场，围绕固定利率、固定期限的产品形成供需关系。

And this is also how you get interest rate curves, organic interest rate curves by having like an open ended industry create supply and demand around fixed rate, fixed term stuff.

我之前和大卫·西弗做过一期节目。

I did an episode with David Seaver.

你还记得比特币吗，戴夫？

You remember Bitcoin, Dave?

是的。

Yeah.

当然记得。

Of course.

没错。

Yeah.

他对Morpho Midnight非常看好，尤其是结合他们正在打造的Alpin Bitcoin L2项目。他们的比特币会直接基于比特币层，作为Morpho Midnight里的抵押品。他认为，借助比特币作为抵押的固定利率、固定期限产品，完全可以重建回购市场。

So he's very bullish on Morpho Midnight on top of the Alpin Bitcoin l two that they're trying to spin up, and they would have their Bitcoin, like, true Bitcoin because it's on the Bitcoin layer too, as collateral inside of Morpho Midnight, and he thinks you can, like, rebuild the repo markets because of fixed rate fixed terms with Bitcoin collateral.

所以，Morpho Midnight 这周上线了。我觉得，我们可能正处在一个非常庞大的金库行业的起步阶段。

And so, Morpho Midnight launched this week, and I I I kind of think that, like I actually think we're at the very beginning of a very big vaults industry.

我们得搞定固定利率和固定期限的问题。

We gotta figure out fixed rate, fixed term.

我是说，我们在加密货币圈子里讨论这个问题已经很久了。

I mean, we've been talking about it for a long time in crypto.

我见过很多

I've seen a lot

各种各样的东西。

of different things.

但是呢

But it's

不是的。

No.

不对。

No.

这绝对是基础核心功能。

It's it's definitely it's a core primitive.

如果我们重新构建金融体系，这个是必不可少的。

Like, if we're rebuilding finance, we have to have this.

没错。

Yeah.

我们还得继续聊聊怎么重建金融体系。

We got more to discuss talking about rebuilding finance.

BitMEX 可不会参与这场变革。

BitMEX is not going to be around for that ride.

它不会插手这件事。

It's not taking part in it.

它正朝着夕阳远去。

They're riding into the sunset.

所以 BitMEX，我该说，已经正式宣布关闭了，我们待会儿聊聊这事。

So BitMEX is officially BitMEX, I should say, is officially shutting down, we'll talk about that.

他们就在那儿。

They're there.

另外，我想跟你们聊聊这个OpenAI模型，它居然突破了自己的安全沙箱，跑到网上去黑系统，诸如此类的事，不过在聊这个之前，先感谢一下我们的赞助商，正是他们让这一切成为可能。

Also, I wanna tell you about this OpenAI model that is breaking its own sandbox, and going out there on the internet and hacking things, all that and more, but before we do, let's thank the sponsors that made possible.

有个好消息要分享。

Some exciting news.

我们即将推出一档新播客，帮助大家理解加密货币的周期，学会如何应对。

We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how to navigate it.

我认识的最懂加密周期的投资人，叫迈克尔·纳托。

The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael Nato.

他运营着《DeFi报告》。

He runs the DeFi report.

就是这位仁兄，在10月10日价格暴跌前给我发了卖出提醒。

This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the 10/10 price drop happened.

他的周期分析，一直准得惊人。

His cycle analysis has been absolutely on point.

我关注他已经有好几年了。

I've been following him for years.

今年我们开始每周录制一期播客。

And this year, we started recording weekly podcast episodes.

每期都会深入分析他的投资组合，看看他持有哪些资产，市场结构如何，入场点在哪里，比特币和以太坊的合理估值是多少，以及我们现在处于周期的哪个阶段。

Each one, we get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure, entry targets, fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether, and where we are in the cycle.

每周三都会更新新一期内容。

There's new episodes that are released every Wednesday.

每期大概三十分钟。

They're thirty minutes.

时长很短。

They're short.

内容紧凑有力。

They're punchy.

我觉得这个加密周期比以往都更难把握，不如我们一起搞清楚。

I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most, so let's do it together.

赶紧去订阅这个播客吧。

Go subscribe to this podcast.

在你常用的播客平台，比如YouTube、Apple或Spotify，搜索‘DeFi Report’，或者查看节目说明里的链接。

Search the DeFi report wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or find a link in the show notes.

新一期已经上线，等你来听。

There's a new episode waiting for you now.

你好，Bankless的朋友们。

Hey, bankless nation.

我是David。

It's David.

如果你听到这段话，说明你正在收听免费的Bankless播客频道。

If you're hearing this, that's because you are listening to the free bankless podcast feed.

你知道吗？我们还有一个付费的Bankless RSS频道。

Did you know that there is a premium bankless RSS feed?

付费频道里有我为个人研究特别录制的额外访谈，是一些更深入的问题，我想搞清楚加密行业里的各种事，这样我不仅能更好地作为Bankless Ventures的投资人做决策，也能更清楚地管理自己的个人投资组合。

The premium feed has extra interviews that I do for my own personal research and just deeper questions that I want answered about the crypto industry, questions that I want to answer so I can be more informed as an investor both at Bankless Ventures and also just in my own personal portfolio too.

而且没有广告，如果你选择订阅付费版而不是免费版，每年就能省下大约二十个小时，因为你直接支持了Bankless。

Also, there are no ads, which means if you listen to the premium feed instead of the free feed, you'll get about twenty hours of your life back every year because you choose to support Banklist directly.

所以如果你想要更多内容，同时避开广告，或者只是欣赏我们做的东西，希望我们能继续做下去，那就欢迎你开通Bankless付费服务。

So if you're interested in getting extra content all while skipping the ads or you just appreciate what we do here and want us to keep doing it, we'd appreciate it if you signed up for Bankless Premium.

详情链接在节目笔记里，你可以点进去开始订阅。

And there is a link in the show notes to get started.

祝大家2026年一切顺利。

Cheers to a good 2026.

瑞安，你以前在BitMEX交易过吗？

Ryan, did you ever trade on BitMEX?

我没有。

I didn't.

没干过。

No.

我也没。

Neither did I.

我一次都没在 BitMEX 上交易过。

I never traded on BitMEX one time.

我对它挺了解的。

I knew a lot about it.

特别是在 2017 年和 2018 年那会儿，

This was particularly what 2017, 2018,

还有 2019 年和 2020 年。

2019, 2020.

BitMEX的创始人Arthur Hayes是不是发明了永续合约？

Was Arthur Hayes, which was the founder of BitMEX, created the perpetual.

就是那个永续合约。

The perp.

在BitMEX上。

On BitMEX.

那里可以说是永续合约的发源地。

Was, you know, perp ground zero.

那时候，很多交易员都往 BitMEX 聚拢。

And this is where, like, a lot of traders gravitated towards BitMEX.

所以你现在看到的很多交易员，都对在 BitMEX 被强平的经历记忆犹新。

So a lot a lot of the traders that you see have, like, fond memories of getting liquidated on BitMEX.

还有，BitMEX 经常出名地宕机，一有剧烈波动，系统就扛不住，直接瘫痪关机。

Also, it's kind of like there was the famous infamous BitMEX outages where a bunch of volatility would happen and BitMEX would like shut down and like short circuit because it was overloaded.

等它重新上线时，你的仓位就没了，因为——

And then when it came back on, like, your position was wiped out because

Arthur Hayes 把你强平了。

Arthur Hayes liquidated.

全是强平的闹剧。

Liquidation fiascos.

是啊。

Yeah.

2020 年有一次，还有几次别的。

One in 2020, like a few others.

是的

Yeah.

总之，BitMEX要关闭了。

Anyways, BitMEX is shutting down.

这事儿早就该发生了。

It's been a long time coming.

这之后，还发生了瑞安提到的那些混乱，当然，早在几年前，BitMEX和亚瑟·海耶斯就因违反《银行保密法》被起诉了。

And this this is after, a, the fiascos that Ryan talked about, but, of course, BitMEX and Arthur Hayes was charged with the Bank Secrecy Act in, like, in years past.

没错。

Yep.

所以他们简直就是被逼到了墙角。

So they just had, like, the gauntlet thrown at them.

它能撑到现在其实已经很不可思议了，但毕竟还是要关了，一个时代就此结束。

The fact that it's actually still running is pretty crazy, but it's not it's shutting down, so end of an era.

是的

Yeah.

我记得亚瑟·海耶斯曾经一度被软禁在家。

I guess, I mean, at one point, Arthur Hayes was on house arrest, I believe.

这是商品期货交易委员会和司法部联合提起的诉讼。

This was a CFTC, DOJ prosecution.

其实去年他还获得了赦免。

Recall he got pardoned, actually, in the web last year.

他确实被赦免了。

He did get pardoned.

是的。

Yeah.

他获得了赦免，

He got

但即便如此，也没能挽救BitMEX。

pardoned from that, but not enough to sort of save BitMEX.

其他竞争对手趁机崛起，迅速占领了市场。

Other competitors really stepped up and and stepped in.

对吧？

Right?

我们当时

We had

BitMEX 就像是永续合约的初代王者。

I mean, BitMEX was just like perps one point o.

后来 dYdX 出来了，币安来了，FTX 也来了又走了。

And, you know, like, then d y d x came, Binance came, FTX came and went.

Bybit 的永续合约交易量一直很大，现在轮到 Hyperliquid 了。

Bybit has very big perp volumes and now hyper liquid.

所以，永续合约的接力棒就这么一路传了下来，现在到了 Hyperliquid 手里。

And so, like, kind of the baton of the perp has kind of been passed down to where it is now, which is hyper liquid.

不过这倒是个问题。

Well, that's a question, though.

你觉得这种接力还会继续下去吗？

Do you think that it will continue to get passed?

因为我们见过那些占据全部市场份额的大型平台。

Because we've seen large venues, dominant venues with all of the market share.

好像有个永续合约的诅咒。

There's like a perp curse.

对吧？

Right?

就像黑魔法防御术那个位置一样。

Like the defense against the dark arts position

正在上演。

in works.

是的。

Is.

对吧？

Right?

每一个周期的永续合约龙头，不知怎么都会倒下，要么像FTX那样出欺诈问题，要么像DOJ起诉那样被监管打压。

Every every every cycle's king perps platform somehow gets knocked out either by fraud in the case of FTX or regulation in the case of DOJ filings.

我的意思是，现在的监管环境更好了，而且Hyper Liquid因为是去中心化的，可能对欺诈类问题更有抵抗力。

I mean, we're in a better regulatory environment and hyper liquid maybe is more immune to fraud type cases because it's decentralized.

它是非托管的。

It's non custodial.

所有交易都在链上进行。

It's on chain.

但因为是去中心化的，它就能躲开监管吗？

Yet immune they're to regulation because it's decentralized.

对。

Yeah.

它真能躲开监管吗？

Is it immune to regulation?

这个我不太确定。

I'm not sure about that one.

它至少在一定程度上能缓冲监管的压力。

It is somewhat buffered against regulation.

我觉得，根斯勒和上一届政府离任了，这才形成了缓冲，但这种情况很可能还会回来。

I think the fact that like Gensler and the previous administration is out is the buffer, but that probably come back on.

我的意思是，我想问的是，你觉得Hyperliquid真能如他们所愿吗？

I mean, do you think I guess maybe my question is, do you think hyper liquid is like they want it?

它就这么结束了？

It's over?

还是说，未来周期里会出现其他主导平台，就像又来了新的‘黑魔法防御术’教授？

Or do you think there are going to be other dominant platforms other Defense Against the Dark Arts professors installed in future cycles?

永续合约作为一种工具，应该属于一个协议化的离岸平台。

The perp as an instrument belongs in a protocolized platform, offshore platform.

像Coinbase或Robinhood这样的中心化平台提供的在岸永续合约，远不如Hyperliquid那样纯粹地体现这个工具的本质。

Onshore perps by centralized platforms like Coinbase or Robinhood are not going to be as pure of an expression of the instrument as something like Hyperliquid.

所以，只要Hyperliquid不犯错，我觉得它会成为主导的离岸永续合约平台。

So, you know, without hyper liquid making any mistakes, I think they will be the dominant offshore per platform.

至于在岸永续合约平台，你应该知道我押注的是哪个。

And then, you know, I mean, you know where my bets are for the onshore per platform.

我觉得Lighter这种支持7x24小时交易的协议，在本土市场其实很有优势，只是还没真正胜出。

I think lighter as another protocol that has twenty four seven three sixty five marketplaces is really well positioned for onshore, it's not Lighter hasn't won that game yet.

但Lighter相比Coinbase确实有优势，比如Coinbase的永续合约在周末会限制交易，因为流动性不够，根本算不上真正的7x24小时。

But like Lighter does have an edge versus Coinbase because like Coinbase per platforms, they ADL you over the weekends because the liquidity isn't as strong, and so it's not truly twenty four seven.

不过你提到的那些欺诈、黑客攻击和监管问题，都是过去的事了。

But like a lot of the things that you said, like the fraud, the hacks, the regulation, that was for a previous era.

现在加密领域的情况已经完全不一样了。

Like, things in crypto are for as far more

稳定多了。

stable now.

我们正越来越接近最终形态，

Making the argument that we're getting close to our final form We're

我们可能已经接近最终形态了。

getting close to our final form.

我们说不定已经到达最终形态了。

We could be at the final form.