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现在是二月。
It is the February.
谢天谢地。
Thank god.
我讨厌二月，大卫。
I hate February, David.
该说谢谢的时候了。
It is time for the Thank you.
每周汇总。
Weekly roll up.
我不知道这件事。
I didn't know that.
我不喜欢二月份。
I don't like Februaries.
我的意思是，为什么
I mean Why does
二月怎么样？
it like February?
这只是一个寒冷而阴郁的月份，从不会发生什么好事。
It's just like a cold bleak month where nothing ever good happens.
我的意思是，
I mean,
我觉得二月就像是三月中的赫奇帕奇。
it's I feel like the Hufflepuff of month three.
这对一所重要的学院来说太不尊重了。
That's pretty disrespectful to a major major school.
四大院系之一？
One of the four houses?
四大院系之一啊，陈。
One of the four houses, Chan.
赫奇帕奇的人其实都是很棒的，对吧？
Hufflepuffs are some of the best people, aren't they?
塞德里克·迪戈里，是赫奇帕奇的？
Cedric Diggory, a Hufflepuff?
是的。
Yeah.
在我印象中，他们就是那种善良、不惹事的人。
They're like the the kind, inoffensive ones in my mind.
在我看来，他们从不曾改变历史。
They don't change history in my mind.
但即便如此，我觉得这周在加密货币领域并不是赫奇帕奇风格的一周。
But still, this was not a Hufflepuff week, I think, in crypto.
这绝对是斯莱特林风格的一周，这么说吧。
This was definitely a Slytherin week, let's say.
好吧。
Okay.
我们有一些简街的闹剧待会儿聊，还有扎克·XBT又曝光了一个加密犯罪团伙。
We had some Jane Street shenanigans that we'll talk Also, Zac XBT exposes yet another crypto crime ring.
我想这不过是又一周罢了，不是吗？
I guess it's just another week, isn't it?
我们还聊点什么？
What else we got?
是的。
Yeah.
在传统市场，经历了西特里尼崩盘，随后特朗普的关税被撤销又重新实施。
In trad markets, have the Citrini crash followed by the Trump tariffs getting revoked and then reinvoked.
然后比特币和加密市场也经历了我们见过的最深的极度恐惧水平。
And then also Bitcoin and the crypto market sustaining the deepest level of extreme fear we've ever seen.
总的来说，无论是加密市场还是我所说的股票市场，现在都充满了巨大的问号，搞不清楚市场到底怎么了。
Overall, just big old question marks over like what the hell the market even is right now, both in crypto and I would say also in the equities market as well.
是的，市场上充满了恐惧和不确定性。
Yeah, lot of fear going around a lot of uncertainty going around.
我们会深入探讨这一点。
We'll dig into that.
大卫，我们在Figure的朋友们和赞助商们为银行带来了一些新变化。
David, our friends and sponsors over at figure have a something something new for the bank is changing.
我能跟你讲讲这件事吗？
Can I tell you about the thing?
是的，跟我们说说这个事情。
Yeah, tell tell us about this thing.
Figure。
Figure.
一家进入加密领域的金融科技公司。
Fintech company coming into crypto.
他们确实会把东西上链，用技术术语来说的话。
They actually do they do the thing where they put the stuff on the chain to to put it in a technical term.
他们用技术术语来描述。
They put it in technical terms.
他们首先提供加密资产抵押贷款，利率为8.9%，贷款价值比为50%。
So they first have crypto backed loans offering an 8.9% interest rate at 50% LTV.
每个人都理解加密货币支持的贷款。
Every everyone understands crypto backed loans.
但他们也致力于让世界上的其他人更容易参与进来，通过去中心化的多方计算托管，让你能够掌控这些加密货币支持的贷款。
They but they also make to make it easy for, you know, the rest of the world to do this, decentralized MPC custody so that you can have custody over the crypto backed loans.
资金不是混在一起的。
It's not commingled.
但我觉得Figure真正酷的地方，也是我希望无银行听众去了解的，是他们所谓的'民主化优质服务'，利用区块链作为底层基础设施。
But what I think is truly cool about Figure and what I want bankless listeners to check out is what they're calling democratized prime using the blockchain, using the blockchain as the infer layer.
他们能够直接剔除中间商，这让向该产品提供贷款的人可以获得高达9%的年化收益率，这是可变利率，由现实世界资产以及比特币作为贷款支持。
They are able to just cut out middlemen and that allows people lending to this product earn up to 9% APY variable interest rates with real world assets and, you know, Bitcoin backing the loans.
所以9%的利率，这确实相当不错。
And so 9%, that's that's pretty damn good.
这确实相当不错。
That's pretty damn good.
每小时支付一次，这正是那种过去仅限于少数人的旧机遇，现在对终端投资者开放且更加高效。
Paid out hourly, and this is the kind of the the old opportunities that has previously previously locked behind closed doors, now open and more efficient to end investors.
9%。
9%.
节目说明中有链接：banklist.cc/figurecbl，如果这个数字引起了你的兴趣。
There is a link in the show notes, banklist.cc/figurecbl, if that number is peaked has peaked your interest.
在市场如此不确定的时候，拥有稳定币是不是很好？
Good to have stablecoins at a time when the markets are so uncertain, isn't it?
好的。
Okay.
让我们谈谈当前市场正在经历的极度恐惧。嗯。
Let's talk about the extreme fear going on Mhmm.
在市场中。
In the markets.
首先，也许简单聊聊价格。
First of all, maybe just touching on on price.
录制时，比特币价格为67千美元。
The time of recording, Bitcoin is 67 k.
以太坊是2000美元。
Ether is 2,000.
2010美元。
2,010.
所以，嗯。
So Mhmm.
等等。
Wait.
以太坊本周上涨了5%，而且
ETH up 5% on the week and and
是的，1%。
one Yeah.
不错。
Percent on Not bad.
不错。
Not bad.
但我的意思是，以太坊本周确实跌到了很低的水平。
But, I mean, ETH did dip pretty low in the week.
我一度看到价格到了1800美元。
I saw like 1,800 at one point.
是的，没错。
Yeah, that's right.
涨到了62000，也就是6.2万。
Went to 62,000, 62 k.
我的意思是，这感觉并不好受。
So, I mean, that didn't feel very good.
这张图表可能是需要重点关注的。
And this chart is the one maybe to focus in on.
这是恐惧与贪婪指数，大卫。
This is the Fear and Greed Index, David.
这是恐惧的历史高点，意味着根据这个指数，当时是历史性的低谷。
And this is historic highs of fear, which means historic lows, I guess, on this index.
对。
Right.
这个指数的运作方式是
So the way this index works is
恐惧处于历史高位，情绪处于历史低点。
Fear is at all time high, sentiment is at all time low.
是的。
Yes.
完全一样，完全一样，完全一样。
Same same same.
是的。
Yes.
别搞混了。
Don't get confused.
100代表非常好。
A 100 is really good.
这全是贪婪。
That's all greed.
对。
Right.
明白吗？
Okay?
那是绿色区域。
That's the green territory.
100是什么意思？
A 100 is what?
我们什么时候感觉过100？
What did we feel a 100?
我在这轮周期里从来没感觉到过。
I don't I didn't feel it anytime this this cycle.
最近一次可能是大约一年前的AI热潮。
Most recent time was probably the AI meta a little over a year ago.
好的。
Okay.
可能是2020年12月，当时非常贪婪。
Maybe December 2020 pretty greed.
好的。
Okay.
现在我们处于光谱的另一端。
Well, now we are on the opposite end of the spectrum.
所以我们处于恐惧的一端。
So we're in the fear end of the spectrum.
所以数值非常低，这意味着恐惧感很高。
So very low numbers, so that means fear is high.
我们现在是五，大卫。
We're at a five, David.
我们现在是五。
We're at a five.
好吧？
Okay?
从零到一百的尺度上，五分之一，我们现在是五。
Five out of one from zero to 100, we are at a five.
而且
And
我们一直都在五，对吧？
We've been at a five, haven't we?
看看这个图表。
Like, look at this chart.
如果你放大视野，从历史角度看这个指数向我们展示了什么？
What are the comparables if you zoom out and you look historically at what this this index is showing us?
我们什么时候曾经有过这种感觉？
When else did we feel like this?
你可以找到新冠崩盘，找到FTX，找到Terra Luna。
You can find it, you can find the COVID crash, you can find FTX, you can find Terra Luna.
值得注意的是，所有这些事件都有具体的数字，比如六、八、十、十一，2017年也发生过一次崩盘。
Notably, all those things have numbers, you know, pretty little numbers, things like six, eight, ten, eleven, there was a crash of 2017.
这些数字都比我们现在所处的水平要高。
Those are all higher numbers than where we are now.
我们现在处于五。
We are at five.
所以，我们确实正在触及恐惧指数的低点，也就是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑（FUD）。
So like we are truly breaching lows on the fear index and you know, fear, uncertainty, doubt, FUD.
我知道有时候FUD会被用作市场操纵手段，但如果你发现市场中充满了恐惧、不确定性和怀疑，价格就一定会走低。
I know like sometimes FUD is like, used as like market manipulation, but you know, if there is a lot of fear, uncertainty, doubt in a market, prices are going to be low.
这三个心理指标，是的。
Those three psychological indicators Yeah.
代表价格处于低位。
Represent low prices.
对。
Yeah.
它们确实代表低价，同时也导致低价，还是低价的结果，所以这里有一个奇怪的自我强化循环。
They do represent low prices, and they also cause low prices, and also they are the result of low prices, so it's this weird reflexive, you know, loop here.
有趣的是，我们现在在恐惧与贪婪指数上更低了。
Fun fact, we are lower on the the fear and greed index.
所以比FTX崩盘时还要更恐惧。
So more fear than FTX.
当FTX被揭露破产时，那个指数是八。
At the point that FTX was revealed to be bankrupt, that was an eight.
我们现在是五。
We are at a five now.
看看这些峰值。
Look at these spikes.
整个二月我们都在五这个水平。
We've been at five all of February.
这是我不喜欢二月的另一个原因，大卫。
This is another reason I don't like February, David.
这就像是
It's just like
我们正在维持。
We are sustaining.
这不仅是我们处于极低水平，而且我们还在没有任何复苏迹象的情况下持续保持如此低的数值。
There's not it's not only are we so incredibly low, but we are sustaining such low numbers without any sort of, like, resurgence.
好的。
Okay.
为什么？
Why?
我是说，没什么大事件发生。
I mean nothing blew up.
再说一遍，我们已经强调这一点有一段时间了。
Again, we've been saying this for a while.
之前有10月10日事件，我们至今仍不太确定那天具体发生了什么，但这次没有BlockFi，没有三箭资本，这个周期里确实没有什么真正意义上大规模爆雷的事件，然而我们却比FTX爆雷时更加恐慌。
There was ten ten, we're still not really sure what happened on that date, but there was no BlockFi, there was no Three Hours Capital, there's nothing that has really blown up in a big way this cycle, and yet we are more fearful than we were when FTX blew up.
为什么？
Why?
对于这个问题，我认为有些答案是加密货币领域固有的，同时也有一些答案能解释为何此刻股市、权益市场也在转向避险。
There are answers to that question that I think are native to crypto, and then there are also answers to that question that also indicate why the stock market, the equities market is also going risk risk off in this moment.
可以说，在加密货币方面，FUD（恐惧、不确定、怀疑）中的怀疑成分，我认为市场对加密货币能否再次触及我们之前见过的一些历史高点，至少在短期内，抱有更高程度的怀疑。
Would say on the crypto side of things, the doubt of FUD, fear of certainty doubt, the doubt side of things, there's I think a higher level of doubt that the crypto markets will ever access some of the all time highs that we've ever seen before, at least in the near term.
因此，可以说对这个行业存在着根本性的怀疑。
And so there's like fundamental doubt about the industry.
在传统市场，我们会讨论很多这里的不确定性，为了真正阐明疑虑点，本周你和我来回分享了一条来自播客之友埃文的推文。
In the trad market, we'll talk about a lot of the uncertainty here, to really drive the doubt point home, there's a tweet that you and I were sharing back and forth this week from Evan's friend of the pod.
他说，我认为你在加密货币领域看到的是，那些多年来历史上将80%到100%净资产投入加密货币的人，正在进行永久性的资产配置转移。
He goes, I think what you've been seeing across crypto is people who have had historically 80 to a 100% of their net worth in crypto for many years making a permanent allocation shift.
潜在原因包括四年周期，我们只是处于四年周期中，所以现在正处于下行阶段。
Potential reasons are the four year cycle, we are just doing the four year cycle, and so now we are in the down part.
存在量子恐惧从根本上压制比特币价格。
There's quantum fears fundamentally suppressing the Bitcoin price.
我们正经历特朗普利用权力通过加密货币敛财所带来的反噬，这给整个行业蒙上了非常负面的阴影。
We are having the blowback of Trump using his powers to extract money using crypto, and that casts a very bad shadow on us.
MicroStrategy的情况也是如此，已经被彻底拖垮了。
Same thing with MicroStrategy just being cooked.
勒索攻击正在增加，同时人工智能和机器人技术也在抢走我们的风头。
Wrench attacks are going up, and then also AI robotics are stealing our thunder.
总的来说，这一切都在动摇人们对这个行业信念，我在东丹佛就感受到了这种情绪，整个行业现在简直令人作呕。
Overall, there's just like it's casting doubt on the belief of the industry, and this is something that like I felt at East Denver, and overall the industry as a whole is just like disgusting right now.
太恶心了。
It's disgusting.
而且你觉得
And you think that like
恶心。
Disgusting.
我没说恶心。
I didn't say disgusting.
我当时想，等等。
I was like, wait.
哦，天哪。
Oh, wow.
真是
What a
这么说。
way say.
播客列表。
Podcast list.
我的意思是，这个行业确实有一些令人反感的地方，所以我本来也没打算完全
Well, I mean, there are some disgusting bits of this industry, so I wasn't going to completely
好吧，我们稍后再聊一些这些事。
Well, we'll talk about some of those later.
是的。
Yeah.
但我想埃文的意思是，这是一种永久性的配置，永久的。
But I I guess here's what Evan is saying, that this is a permanent allocation Permanent.
来自那些将80%到99%净资产都投入加密货币的人。
From people who have had 80 to 99% of their net worth in crypto.
他们正在永久退出。
They are permanently exiting.
我不确定这是否属实，但目前的感觉就是这样。
Not sure if that's true, but that's what it feels like right now.
这正是人们感受到的氛围。
That's what the sense of it feels like.
是的。
Yes.
你觉得这其中有多大程度是市场在对加密货币的反噬做出定价？
That's How much of this do you think this is the market pricing in a backlash against crypto?
所以，如果当初特朗普上台后，我们能顺利通过《天才法案》和《清晰法案》，并除掉根斯勒，这些利好都已成过去。
So, if the wins were in our favor with Trump coming to office, and he was going to get the Genius Act done, and Clarity Act done, and, you know, get rid of Gensler, and all of those things, that's well behind us now.
现在，我们处于另一面，市场正在审视加密货币并说，嗯，存在很多腐败和欺诈行为，对吧，现在我们知道，加密货币本应表现良好，但我们吸引的新用户数量并未达到预期。
Now, we're on the other side of that, and the market's looking at crypto and saying, well, there's a lot of corruption and grift from Right, now know, we have new should be good in crypto, but we're not onboarding as many people as we thought we would.
应用场景尚未完全成熟，也许市场也在对特朗普以及我们曾拥有的监管顺风进行反弹定价。
The use cases aren't fully, know, and maybe the market's pricing in a backlash as well against Trump and against the regulatory tailwinds that we've had.
你认为这会成为现实吗？
You think that's gonna be true?
我认为，这部分内容在我们上周与莱克斯·鲁丁和彼得·斯坦伯格讨论的内容中有所体现。
Part of this, I think, is illustrated downstream of what we're talking about last week with a guy on Lex Rudin and Peter Steinberger.
是的。
Yeah.
就像我之前说的，我正在开发我的AI产品，然后那些搞加密货币的人就涌了进来，试图把一切都变成赌博性质的东西。
Just talking about like, I was building my AI product, and the crypto people came in and tried to like, gamblify everything about it.
他们入侵了我的服务器，处处给我使绊子，我当时真想直接放弃。
They hacked my servers, they got in my way, and I just wanted to quit.
这对加密货币行业来说形象太糟糕了，而且这就像是给行业内层出不穷、总占据媒体头条的欺诈行为又添了浓墨重彩的一笔。
And it was such a bad look for the crypto industry, and that was like kind of a cherry on top of so much other grift happening in the industry that is on the media's front pages all the time.
每当加密货币登上媒体头版，总是坏事。
Whenever crypto is on the media front page, it's always bad.
还有唐纳德·特朗普的问题，加密货币成了各种骗局的渠道。
And then there's also the issue of Donald Trump, like, crypto as a conduit for grift everywhere.
所以当唐纳德·特朗普当选时，比特币从六万美元涨到了十万美元，突破了历史高点，之后还继续上涨，因为市场预期会任命更友好的SEC、更友好的CFTC，最终实现市场规范化。
And so when Donald Trump got elected, Bitcoin ran from like 60,000 to a $100,000, broke all time highs, went even higher after that because the market was going to do things like put in a favorable SEC, put in a favorable CFTC, finally get market.
这很好。
And it has That's good.
这很好。
And that's good.
但现在，我们已经把所有好事都做完了。
And now now we did all the good things.
我们把所有好事都得到了。
We got all the good things.
是的。
Yeah.
而现在，我们创造了新的问题。
And now we have created new bad things.
政治阵营的一方现在强烈地将加密货币与特朗普的骗局联系在一起，而他们又讨厌特朗普。
And the one half of the political aisle is now such so strongly associating crypto with Trump's grift, who they hate.
是的。
Yeah.
因此，作为整个行业，我们现在必须应对这个问题。
That like now, as an industry, now we have to deal with that.
这正是我们面前的新挑战。
And that's the new problem ahead of us.
像《清晰法案》或罢免加里·根斯勒这样的事情，不再能成为行业的催化剂了。
And no longer are things like the Clarity Act or like the removal of Gary Gensler catalyst for the industry.
而且，我们也不再是炙手可热的焦点了。
And then and then you also you add on that like we are just not not hot shit anymore.
人工智能才是现在的热点。
AI is hot shit.
我们不再是热门焦点。
We are not hot shit.
量子确实是个大问题。
Quantum is a truly a problem.
你再叠加一个四年周期。
You layer on four year cycle.
不幸的是，我们现在左支右绌，备受打击。
It's kind of just like we're getting slammed left and right, unfortunately.
是的。
Yeah.
这有点像熊市的感觉，这也让我们回到四年周期这个因素上。
Which is kind of what bear markets feel like, which brings us back to the four year cycles component of this.
没错。
That's right.
而且，这正是恐惧、不确定和怀疑（FUD）的来源。
Well, and and that's the FUD.
我的意思是，我们谈到了恐惧。
I mean, we talked about the the fear.
对吧？
Right?
我们刚刚谈到了怀疑。
And we just talked about the doubt.
现在的怀疑是，加密货币是否还能复苏，是否还能重回正轨。
The doubt right now is that crypto will ever come back, will ever return.
让我们谈谈不确定性，因为这不仅仅存在于加密市场中。
Let's talk about the uncertainty, because it's not just in crypto markets.
我觉得这是目前全球无处不在的一个变量。
I feel like this is the one variable that is everywhere Global.
同时发生。
All at once
现在。
right now.
全球不确定性。
Global uncertainty.
这是结构性的。
It is structural.
事实上，本周三发布的节目开场嘉宾迈克尔·纳托的报告中就提出了这个观点。
In fact, that's the argument that front of the show, Michael Nato, made in his report this week that came out on Wednesday.
他称这是一场‘不确定性泡沫’。
He's calling this an uncertainty bubble.
我认为，本周有两大不确定性来源。
And there were, I think, two sources of uncertainty this week.
这两者
Both of
在过去十二个月左右的时间里一直持续存在。
them have been pretty persistent over the last twelve months or so.
第一个是最高法院和关税，或者更广泛地说，就是关税问题。
The first is the Supreme Court and tariffs, or just generally tariffs.
那么，这周发生了什么导致关税方面的不确定性？
So what happened on the week that caused uncertainty with tariffs?
是的。
Yeah.
这周，最高法院推翻了特朗普的关税政策。
So this week, the Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs.
我想我们都记得那张著名的照片，特朗普在解放日拿着一张Excel表格海报板，宣布对所有国家征收关税。
So I think we all remember that famous picture of Trump with that excel sheet poster board on liberation day where he's like announcing all of the tariffs for all of the countries.
还记得那个画面吗？
And it's like, remember, you know that image?
这些关税已被最高法院裁定为非法。
Those tariffs have been deemed illegal by the supreme court.
是的。
Yes.
所以所有这些都算在内。
So all of that.
我们现在屏幕上看到的是中国34%的关税，你知道的。
This the what we are looking at on screen right now with the China, you know, 34% tariffs.
欧盟20%的关税。
European Union, 20% tariffs.
这些关税已经取消了。
Those tariffs are gone.
这些关税被裁定为非法，那正是解放日的事。
Those tariffs are illegal as determined by That was liberation day.
顺便问一下，那是个节日吗？
Is that is that a day by the way?
我们每年都会庆祝这一天吗？
Are we gonna celebrate that day every year?
这会成为一个全国性假日吗？
Is that like a national holiday?
而且我们又要征收新的关税了。
And we're getting new tariffs.
我们有新的关税。
We're new tariffs
嗯，是的。
every Uh-huh.
最高法院以6比3的裁决认定，唐纳德·特朗普用来对几乎所有商品加征关税的紧急权力超出了总统权限，需要国会明确授权。
And so a six to three ruling in the supreme court held that the emergency powers that Donald Trump used to tariff nearly everything exceeded presidential authority and required explicit congressional approval.
所以他们表示，那些关税是合法的，但现在已经不存在了。
So they said those are legal and those don't exist anymore.
而且应该退还，对吧？
And have be refunded, right?
必须退还，我们稍后会谈到这一点。
And they have to be refunded, we'll get into that.
为了进一步增加对下一步会发生什么的不确定性，就在最高法院做出裁决后不久，特朗普又以不同的方式重新推出了更多关税。
In order to add to the uncertainty as to what happens next, right after the Supreme Court did that, Trump reintroduced more tariffs, just under different lane, going a different direction.
所以最高法院推翻了这些关税，而特朗普却说：那再加点关税怎么样？
So the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs, and then Trump was like, how about more tariffs?
所以问题可能是，特朗普为什么能这么做？他怎么就被允许这样做了？
And so the the question might be, like, how is Trump allowed to why is he just allowed to do that?
是的。
Yeah.
他是在违抗最高法院吗？
He going against the supreme court?
他是在违抗最高法院吗？
Is he going against the supreme court?
所以我得去查一点资料。
So I had to like do a little research here.
《国际紧急经济权力法》，也就是总统用来实施关税的法案，他就是用的这个。
The IEEPA, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to institute tariffs, act of the president, that's what he used.
这就是他最初实施关税时所依据的策略和法律先例。
That's the strategy, the legal precedent that he used to implement the tariffs in the first place.
这扇门已经关上了。
That door is closed.
好的。
K.
但事实证明，特朗普总统还有大约四扇门可以走。
But it turns out Trump, the president, has like four more doors available to him.
哦，还有《贸易扩展法》第232条。
Oh, There's section section two thirty two of the trade expansion act.
还有《1974年贸易法》第301条。
There's section three zero one of the trade act 1974.
有1974年贸易法的第122条。
There's section 122 of the Trade Act of 01/1974.
这些具体是什么并不重要。
Doesn't matter what these things are.
关键在于，特朗普似乎可以随意选择一条作为新关税的新先例。
The idea is like Trump just gets to pick one that's the new precedent for the new tariffs.
所以现在，如果我们想推翻这些关税，就必须重新走诉讼程序，这就像市场、我以及全世界都在问：最高法院和唐纳德·特朗普之间的平衡点究竟在哪里？
And so now if we want to strike down those tariffs, we have to go back through the litigation process, which it that is just like the market and me also and the world is like where does the equilibrium lie, like, between the supreme court and Donald Trump?
因为听起来我们又要经历一场新的闹剧了。
Because it sounds like we're just about to do another rodeo.
我的意思是，关税实际上仍然有效。
Well, I mean, the tariffs are remaining in place effectively.
但这件事还有补救的余地。
But but there is still the redemption piece of this.
对吧？
Right?
所以当初关闭的那扇门，现在还有补救的机会。
So with the original door that closed, there's a redemption.
我认为最高法院并没有对此发表意见。
I don't think the Supreme Court weighed in on that.
你知道这件事会怎么解决吗？
Do you do we have any idea how that's going to get resolved?
是的，已经有1500亿到1750亿美元的关税收入进账了。
Yeah, so 150 to $175,000,000,000 of tariff revenue has come to the door.
现在这笔钱已经进入财政部了。
Now we have that in the Treasury.
理论上，这笔钱可以成为退款申请的对象。
That in theory could be the subject of refund claims.
最高法院并没有直接下令退款，但现在，任何向政府支付关税的人都可以提起诉讼来追回这些款项。
The Supreme Court did not directly order the refunds to happen, but like now, anyone who's been paying tariffs to the government now gets to sue to get those back.
真的吗？
Oh, really?
是的。
So, yes.
因此，像好市多和联邦快递这样的大公司已经提起诉讼，以保留他们的索赔权利。
So major companies like Costco and FedEx have already filed suits to preserve their claims.
大约有30万家美国企业可以这样做。
Roughly 300,000 US businesses could do that.
所以企业能拿回这笔钱。
So the businesses get it.
这似乎也会增加消费者的成本。
It seems like it also costs consumers.
普通消费者也能申请退款吗？
Do individual consumers do get to get to file for this?
我不确定这一点，布莱恩。
I am uncertain about that, Brian.
我是个大粉丝
I'm a big you
对此我持相同看法。
on that one.
好的。
Okay.
所以一个不确定的因素是关税，而且，
So one source of uncertainty is the tariffs, and,
你
you
你知道，我觉得这影响更广泛，对吧？因为这也关系到地缘政治——美国如何看待自己作为自由贸易推动者的角色，而其他国家又如何看待美国？
know, where, I think, this is broader, right, because this also impacts geopolitics, where does The US see itself in the world as an agent of free trade, and where do other countries see The US?
所有这些都交织在一起。
There's all of that.
但与此同时，我们面临着可能是你我一生中经历过的最大不确定性。
Mixed in with that though, we have the biggest uncertainty, I think that probably you and I have ever experienced in our lifetime.
是的。
Yeah.
那就是超级智能计算机。
And that is like super intelligent computers.
人工智能是人工智能的尾部风险吗？
Is AI, AI tail risk.
我认为，对每个人来说，未来都充满了不确定性。
I think the the future is so uncertain for everyone.
你可以从人口调查中看到这一点，比如Z世代对他们的职业选择、职业道路，甚至一切都很迷茫，科技公司、SaaS公司都在问：我们该如何应对人工智能？
You can see this in demographic questionnaires like the zoomers just are so uncertain about their career choices, their career paths, anything, tech companies, SaaS companies, everyone is like, what do we do about AI?
这对我们会是看涨的吗？
Is it bullish for us?
这对我们会是看跌的吗？
Is it bearish for us?
我真的不知道。
I just don't know.
我也不确定。
I honestly don't.
你知道吗？
Do you know?
我不知道。
I don't know.
不知道。
No.
未来的前景一片模糊。
The fog of of the future is so unclear.
是的，你知道
It is, you know
确实不清楚。
It's unclear.
而且现在也是2026年2月。
And it's also February 2026.
我不知道2028年会是什么样子。
I don't know what 2028 is gonna look like.
过去情况并非如此。
That didn't used to be the case.
我以前大致能预测未来两年的情况。
I used to roughly be able to predict two years in the future.
我个人毫无头绪。
No clue for me personally.
那是因为人工智能给未来带来了变数。
That's because AI has driven variance into the future.
对吧？
Right?
就像，感觉它可能要么真的、真的很好，向上发展。
Like, there's the sense that it could be either really, really good up Right.
要么真的、真的很糟，向下滑落。
Or really, really bad down.
或者什么变化都没有。
Or nothing.
或者也许什么都没有，但确实感觉像是存在某种极端情境下的动荡。
Or maybe nothing, but it does feel like there's some jostling of of kind of some extreme scenarios
世界上存在一些这样的情况。
There's some of the of the world.
确实如此。
That is correct.
所以有一篇Substack文章流传开来，不仅在传统机构金融圈里传阅，也在加密货币领域各处传播。
So there was a Substack article that came out that made the rounds in traditional institutional finance as well, as well as, you know, crypto all over the place.
这篇文章叫做《2028年全球智能危机》，对吧。
It was called the twenty twenty eight Global Intelligence Crisis Right.
作者是一个叫Suttrini研究的团队。
By a group called Suttrini Research.
这篇文章的摘要是什么？
What what was the summary of this article?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
这篇文章是以2028年6月的视角写的，回顾了过去几年，分析了标普500指数的一次大规模市场崩盘。
So this piece was written as if it were June 2028, and it was doing a retrospective over the last few few years diagnosing a massive market crash in the S and P 500.
也就是说，这是一篇关于未来潜在模型的虚构作品。
So like, to be clear, fiction about a potential model of the future.
等等。
Wait.
等等。
Wait.
等等。
Wait.
等等。
Wait.
你说这是虚构的，但第一句话就写着：以下内容是一个情景，而非预测。
You said fiction, but in the fur very first sentence it says, what follows is a scenario, not a prediction.
这并不是看空派的色情内容或AI末日迷的幻想小说。
This isn't bear porn or AI doomer fan fiction.
它说这不是瑞安的粉丝
It says it's not Ryan, fan
但很明确，这其实就是看空派的色情内容和AI末日迷的幻想小说。
it was bear porn, and it was AI doomer fan fiction, to be clear.
不。
No.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
这正是它的本质。
That is exactly what it was.
说这不疯狂。
Say it ain't insane.
那么，根据这篇文章，2028年会是什么样子？
So, say, what according to this article does 2028 look like?
是的。
Yeah.
从根本上说，这个论点认为，由人工智能驱动的生产率大幅提升，反而会削弱整个经济。
The basically at the core of the argument, it's like massive AI driven productivity gains paradoxically, like undermine the economy as a whole.
基本上，人工智能接管了所有工作，所有公司都因利润被压缩、利润率下降而陷入困境，许多公司因此倒闭。
Basically, AI takes all the jobs, all the companies under duress because of like, you know, profits getting squeezed, margins are getting squeezed, many companies lose this.
陷入困境的公司解雇所有员工，转而用人工智能代理取代他们，这实际上进一步增加了人工智能代理的产能和盈利能力，从而形成了一个恶性循环：产能增长如此之快，所有公司都将依赖它，每家公司的核心都将变成Claude、Gemini或ChatGPT。
The companies under duress fire all their employees and replace them with AI agents, which actually like adds further capacity to AI agents and profitability to AI agents, which just kind of feeds into this doom loop of basically capacity is going to grow so fast, all companies are gonna be dependent on it, like every the core of all company is going to be like Claude, Gemini, or ChatGPT.
每个人都会失业。
Everyone's going to be out of the job.
这将以一种末日循环的方式加速发展。
This is going to accelerate in a doom loop style fashion.
如果你不想读这篇文章，因为它有点长，那它的标语就是：AI看起来如此乐观，却实际上令人悲观，每个人都会丢掉工作。
And, like, the tagline, if you don't wanna read the article because it was, like, somewhat long is, like, AI is so bullish that it's bearish, and it's going to everyone's gonna lose their job.
这看起来不太真实。
That doesn't seem real.
但很多人说，这确实在一定程度上吓到了市场。
But a lot of people said that this actually was responsible for spooking markets somewhat.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
人们称之为Citrini崩盘。
People called it the citrini crash.
好的。
Okay.
这周是特里尼崩盘。
It's a Trini crash this week.
这个说法。
This narrative.
什么？
What?
我想这个说法确实流传开了，传播开来，嗯。
You like I guess this narrative kind of took hold, propagated, and Uh-huh.
人们这周都在担心AI会导致失业，而我们是在23号遭遇了这次下跌。
People were thinking about job loss due to AI in the week, and we lost this was on the twenty third.
那到底发生了什么？
So what was that?
是周一吗？
Like, Monday?
美国股市在一天内蒸发了近8000亿美元的市值。
US stocks erased nearly 800,000,000,000 in market cap.
人工智能冲击的担忧蔓延，贸易战争的头条新闻再次回归。
AI disruption fears spread, and trade trade war headlines returned.
所以，again，关税的不确定性，人工智能的不确定性。
So, again, uncertainty in tariffs, uncertainty in AI.
这到底会带来什么影响？
What's it actually gonna do?
这会不会因为过于看涨反而变成看跌？
Is this gonna be so bullish that it's actually bearish?
市场受到惊吓，开始抛售。
Markets got spooked and sold off.
是的，没错，就是这样。
Yeah, yeah, that's exactly right.
我想指出，这里可能存在时间上的巧合，市场一直都很波动。
I do want to point out that there is just a coincidence in timing possibility here, like the markets are volatile and have been volatile.
今天，或者周一那天，市场向下波动，而这恰好是那篇文章在周末后首个交易日走红的时候。
Today or that that day on Monday, they were volatile to the downside, which happens to be, like, the the first trading day after the weekend that this article went viral.
嗯嗯。
Mhmm.
我想暗示一下这可能只是巧合，因为你知道，随机游走。
I would like to allude to some sort of coincidence with that just because, you know, Random walk.
随机游走。
Random walk.
随机游走的方向恰好与这个子话题一致。
Random Random walk in a direction that happens to, like, align with this sub stack.
你之前说这是同人小说。
Well, you called this fan fic.
现在我要你解释一下为什么这么说，因为确实有人认真看待这个情景。
Now, I'm gonna ask you to justify that because, yes, some people are taking this scenario seriously.
这是一种可能性，但你为什么觉得它是同人小说？
It is a it's a possibility, but why do you think it's fanfic?
好吧。
Okay.
就在前一周，还有一篇文章也爆红了。
So the there was another article that came out the week before that also went viral.
马特·舒默的文章，称有大事正在发生。
Matt Schumer's article, something big is happening.
这篇文章获得了八千五百万次曝光。
This grew to 85,000,000 impressions.
每个人都在读这篇文章，甚至有人制作了梗图，调侃大家都在读这篇文章。
Like everyone read this article to the point that everyone was making memes about how everyone was reading the article.
如果你没读过那篇文章，它的基本观点是：AI现在就像2020年1月的新冠疫情，大家都在暗中议论。
And if you didn't read that article, the basic premise was that AI is in like January 2020 of COVID where everyone kind of is rumbling.
人们说：嘿，中国有个病毒在传播，但那只是十八则新闻里的一条，根本不用太在意。
They're like, hey, there's this like, you know, virus thing in China that's spreading, but that's just like one of 18 news things and like, don't really worry about it.
但两个月后，新冠疫情就爆发了。
And then, you know, two months later, there was like the COVID crisis.
这篇文章的核心观点——‘有大事正在发生’——同样适用于AI。
That was this premise of this article, something big was happening is the same thing with AI.
就像是在说，嘿，朋友们，我们距离一场危机只有几个月了，这场危机将影响我们所有人。
Was like, hey, guys, we are we are months before a crisis, and like, it's going to impact all of us.
还有同人小说。
Also, fan fiction.
也是同人小说。
Was also fan fiction.
我们的结论是，AI末日论的同人小说已经兴起，因为不确定性达到了如此程度，我们只能看清未来的一小部分。
The takeaway our takeaway is that AI doomer fan fiction is in because to the point of uncertainty, we can only see so far into the future
现在，不确定性正好找到了产品与市场的契合点。
It's right now product in market fit for uncertainty.
是的。
Yes.
这就是为不确定性量身打造的叙事型迷因产品市场契合。
That's narrative meme product market fit for uncertainty.
这真是个绝妙的表述。
That's a great way to put it.
是的。
Yeah.
我基本上同意。
I I pretty much agree.
我认为诺亚·史密斯写了一篇关于这个的精彩文章。
Noah Smith, I thought, had a great article about this.
他说Centrini的帖子只是一个吓人的睡前故事，并给出了一些理由。
He he says the Centrini post is just a scary bedtime story, and he gives some reasons why.
但其中一个主要理由是，行动者可以做出回应。
But one of the big reasons why, of course, is like, actors can respond.
如果人工智能如此高效，对经济的增长如此有影响力，从而推动创新和生产力，那么我们知道如何将这些成果分配给人们。
If AI is so productive, and so impactful to the economy from a growth perspective, that it spurs innovation, and it spurs productivity, well, we know how to distribute that to the people.
对吧？
Right?
我的意思是，正如你所说，我们在新冠疫情期间就做过类似的事。
I mean, we did it, to your point, in COVID.
对吧？
Right?
你可以直接发钱。
You could helicopter money.
你可以发放刺激支票。
You could drop stimulus checks.
给所有受人工智能裁员影响的人。
All the people affected by AI layoffs.
如果我们有15%的GDP增长呢？
Well, we have 15% growth in GDP.
我们可以从中拿出一部分分给民众。
We can cut a portion of that give that to the population.
在某种程度上，我们知道该怎么解决这个问题。
Know how to fix this at some level.
很难想象，我认为诺亚·史密斯也提过这一点，会出现这样一个世界：美国因为人工智能过于成功和高效而衰落。
It's hard for me to imagine, I think Noah Smith made this point too, a world where, you know, The US falls off because AI is too successful and too productive.
对吧？
Right?
就像任何社会都会这么做。
Like, where any society does that.
是的。
Like Yeah.
更令人担忧的是AI泡沫，然后经济却不再有生产力，我们就会陷入一种衰退。
More concerning would be an AI bubble and then a bus is not productive, and we go into kind of a Yeah.
一种像衰退或萧条之类的下行恶性循环。
A downward doom loop of, like, recession or like depression or something like that.
如果所有人都认为这项技术是这样的，那就有可能从中分出一部分，给劳动力群体。
If this technology all people think it is, then there's a way to slice that off and give that to, you know, the workforce.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得你刚才列举了几个风险。
To like, I think you labeled a handful of risks there.
比如，亚历克斯·索恩在一条推文中非常精彩地指出：市场担心AI不够好，无法兑现大公司在2026年预计的6000亿美元资本支出。
Like, one risk is Alex Thorn actually put this fantastically in a tweet where he said, the market is is afraid that AI won't be good enough and won't live up to the $600,000,000,000 of expected capex spending from the big companies in 2026.
没错。
Yep.
这是一个担忧。
That's one worry.
不过，市场也担心AI太强大，会取代所有工作，尤其是软件行业的工作。
Though the market is also worried that AI will be too good and kill every job, especially in software.
市场的解读是，这两种看似矛盾的观点其实可以同时被验证。
The market, like the interpretation is like you can validate both takes in the market simultaneously, and those are opposite outcomes.
是的。
Yes.
确实如此。
That's true.
所以市场根本就是他妈的一团乱，伙计。
And so the market is just doesn't fucking know, dude.
非常困惑。
Very confused.
所以总结一下，波动性上升了，不确定性也增加了。
So the summary is volatility is up, uncertainty Yeah.
是
Is
所以市场在AI好和AI坏之间来回摇摆。
So like the market yoyos between AI is good, AI is bad.
AI好，AI坏。
AI is good, AI is bad.
是的。
Yeah.
那你怎么对冲这种风险呢？
And how do you hedge against that?
我的意思是，Michael Nato的回答是，确保你手头有点现金。
Mean, Michael Nato's answer is like, make sure you have a little bit of cash.
明白吗？
Alright?
对于这个问题还有其他一些答案，但我讨厌这个回答。
There are some other answers to that as well, but I hate that answer.
与此同时，由于这种不确定性，加密货币正遭受打压。
In the meanwhile in the meanwhile, crypto is getting a beat down on some of this uncertainty.
也许这种影响会蔓延开来。
Maybe it's gonna spread.
我们有几个话题要聊。
We got a few things to talk about.
Jane Street是否应对2022年加密货币寒冬期间Terra Luna的崩盘负责？
Was Jane Street responsible for the crash of Terra Luna all the way in 2022 crypto winter?
它们是否应对当前比特币价格的压制负责？
Are they responsible for suppressed Bitcoin prices now?
我们会谈一谈这个。
We'll talk about that.
另外，Meta重新推出ZuckBucks，关于稳定币的计划，敬请关注。
Also, Meta coming back with ZuckBucks, so stablecoin plans, tune in for that.
所有这些内容以及其他更多，但在开始之前，我们要感谢使本集成为可能的赞助商。
All this and more, but before we do, we wanna thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.
Galaxy致力于连接数字资产与下一代基础设施，为机构提供端到端服务。
Galaxy operates where digital assets and next generation infrastructure come together, serving institutions end to end.
在市场方面，Galaxy是领先的机构平台，提供现货、衍生品、结构性产品、DeFi借贷、投资银行和融资服务。
On the market side, Galaxy is a leading institutional platform, providing access to spot, derivatives, structured products, DeFi lending, investment banking, and financing.
拥有超过1600个交易对手，Galaxy帮助机构应对市场周期的每一个阶段。
With more than 1,600 trading counterparties, Galaxy helps institutions navigate every phase of the market cycle.
该平台还通过主动管理策略以及机构级质押和区块链基础设施，支持长期资产配置者。
The platform also supports long term allocators through actively managed strategies and institutional grade staking and blockchain infrastructure.
这种规模是实实在在的。
That scale is real.
Galaxy平台上的资产超过120亿美元，2025年底平均贷款规模达18亿美元，体现了生态系统中深厚的信赖。
Galaxy has over $12,000,000,000 in assets on the platform and averaged a $1,800,000,000 loan book in late twenty twenty five, reflecting deep trust across the ecosystem.
除了数字资产，Galaxy还在为人工智能驱动的未来构建基础设施。
Beyond digital assets, Galaxy is also building infrastructure for an AI powered future.
其Helios数据中心园区专为人工智能和高性能计算打造，已获批的电力容量超过1.6吉瓦，是同类设施中规模最大的之一。
Its Helios Data Center campus is purpose built for AI and high performance computing with more than 1.6 gigawatts of approved power capacity, making it one of the largest sites of its kind.
从全球市场到为人工智能准备的数据中心，Galaxy为数字资产生态系统提供端到端的服务。
From global markets to AI ready data centers, Galaxy is serving the digital asset ecosystem end to end.
访问galaxy.com/bankless了解Galaxy，或点击节目中的链接。
Explore Galaxy at galaxy.com/bankless, or click the link in the show
备注。
notes.
2024年，新兴市场为投资者创造了超过1150亿美元的年收益，收益率介于10%至40%之间。
In 2024, emerging markets generated over 115,000,000,000 in annual yield for investors, with yields ranging between 10 to 40%.
这些是地球上最高、最持久的收益率之一。
These are some of the highest, most persistent yields on earth.
问题是什么？
The problem?
DeFi无法触及这些市场。
DeFi can't access them.
Bricks改变了这一现状。
Bricks changes this.
基于Mega ETH构建的Bricks，将新兴市场的货币市场和主权套利转化为可组合的底层资产，让你可以直接从钱包中访问。
Built on Mega ETH, Bricks takes emerging market money markets and sovereign carry and turns them into composable primitives you can access straight from your wallet.
当DeFi投资者在稳定币和国债上赚取3%到6%的收益时，机构投资者凭借主权货币政策支持已获得10%至50%的收益率。
While DeFi investors earned three to 6% on stablecoins and T bills, institutions have been harvesting 10 to 50% yields backed by sovereign monetary policy.
Bricks通过机构级灰色代币化、本地银行通道、跨司法管辖区合规以及实时稳定币结算，将这些领域连接起来。
Bricks connects these worlds with institutional gray tokenization, local banking rails, compliance across jurisdictions, and real time stablecoin settlement.
Bricks承担了繁重的工作，使DeFi最终能够接入真实抵押品，并在现实世界收益之上构建结构化产品。
Bricks does the heavy lifting so DeFi can finally access real collateral, instruction products on top of real world yield.
即使是最优的套利交易，也可能触手可及。
Even the best carry trades can be within reach.
Bricks 将 DeFi 的承诺带到新兴市场，将新兴市场的收益直接带入您的钱包。
Bricks brings DeFi's promise to the emerging world and brings the emerging market yield to your wallet.
让收益通过 Bricks 流向您。
Let the yield flow with Bricks.
如果您能用与交易加密货币相同的工具和速度交易黄金、外汇和全球市场，会怎样？
What if you could trade gold, forex, and global markets with the same tools and speed that you use for crypto?
这正是 Bitget TradFi 所实现的功能。
That's exactly what Bitget TradFi unlocks.
在经历强劲的测试期需求后，包括单日黄金交易量超过一亿美元，Bitget TradFi 现已向所有用户开放。
After strong beta demand, including over a $100,000,000 in single day gold trading volume, Bitget TradFi is now live for all users.
在您现有的 Bitget 账户内，您可以交易涵盖外汇、贵金属、指数和商品的 79 种金融产品，所有交易均直接以 USDT 结算。
Inside of your existing Bitget account, you can trade 79 instruments across forex, precious metals, indices, and commodities, all settled directly in USDT.
无需切换平台，也无需法币兑换。
No platform switching and no fiat conversions.
这就是 Bitget 普适性交易所愿景的真正实现。
This is Bitget's universal exchange vision in action.
加密货币与传统金融并肩而行。
Crypto and traditional finance side by side.
你将获得深厚的流动性、低滑点，以及最高达500倍的杠杆，让你将加密策略应用于宏观市场。
You get deep liquidity, low slippage, and leverage up to 500 x, letting you apply crypto strategies to macro markets.
对传统金融还不熟悉？
New to TradFi?
从黄金开始。
Start with gold.
黄金兑美元货币对流动性强，受宏观因素驱动，是加密市场与传统市场之间自然的桥梁。
The gold USD pair is liquid, macro driven, and a familiar natural bridge between crypto and traditional markets.
立即在 bitget.com 交易黄金。
Try trading gold on Bitget now at bitget.com.
点击节目说明中的链接获取更多信息。
Click the link in the show notes for more information.
这不是财务建议。
This is not financial advice.
本周，负责处理Terraform Labs（Terra Luna背后的公司）清算事务的管理员指控Jane Street从事内幕交易，加速了Terraform Labs的崩溃。
This week, the administrator helping wind down Terraform Labs, the company behind Terra Luna, accused Jane Street of insider trading that helped collapse Terraform Labs.
因此，这引发了加密推特圈乃至整个加密行业开始质疑：等等，这是怎么回事？
And so this has led to the crypto Twitter industry, the crypto as a whole asking like, oh, wait a second.
Jane Street是否参与了2022年加密市场崩盘的开端，先是TerraForm Labs的失败，而现在又有了直接的指控？
Was Jane Street involved with just a terrible demise of crypto in 2022 starting with TerraForm Labs, but then a little bit further after that, starting with the actual accusation here.
根据TerraForm Labs管理人的说法，Jane Street滥用市场关系，在加密历史上最具决定性的事件之一中操纵市场以谋取私利。
So a quote from the TerraForm Labs administrate administrator, Jane Street abused the market relationships to rig the market in its favor during one of the most consequential events in crypto history.
代表受损方，我们将依据事实与法律，对那些利用自身地位、以TerraForm Labs债权人利益为代价获取巨额利润的人采取一切可行的法律行动。
On behalf of injured parties, we will pursue all avenues supported by the facts and law against those who exploited their position and reaped substantial profits at the expense of TerraForm Labs creditors.
好的。
Okay.
具体是什么行为？
What was the act in question?
我想我们都记得Terra Luna崩盘时的情景。
So I think we all remember when Terra Luna blew up.
这件事发生在5月8日，从5月7日开始。
This happened May 8 May, starting on May 7.
四年前，四年前，天哪，2020年
Four years ago, four years ago, Jesus, twenty twenty
我们做这个已经太久了。
we've been doing this for too long.
2022年5月7日，Terraform Labs从Curve三池中撤出了大约1.5亿美元的TerraUSD，而TUSD（Terra的稳定币）基本上就是在这里拥有流动性、维持锚定和进行定价的。
05/07/2022, Terraform Labs withdrew about $150,000,000 of TerraUSD from the Curve three pool, and that was where TUSD, the Terra stable coin, basically had its liquidity, had its peg, was priced.
第二天，Do Kwon后来表示，那笔1.5亿美元的提款是为了将Terra USC从一个流动性池转移到另一个流动性池，所以这就像是一次无害的转账。
The next day, Do Kwon would later say that that $150,000,000 withdrawal was meant to move Terra USC from one liquidity pool to another, so it was like an innocuous transfer.
但据称，这一操作的执行和时机是非公开信息，Terra Labs指控Jane Street为了追求利润而滥用了这一信息，因为在提取那1.5亿Terra USD后不到十分钟，与Jane Street相关的Jane Street或Wallace就从同一个Curve三池中移除了8500万美元的Terra USD。
But the execution and timing of this move was claimed to be non public information that Terra Labs is alleging James Street abused in pursuit of profit because less than ten minutes after the withdrawal of that 150,000,000, Terra USD, Jane Street or Wallace associated with Jane Street removed $85,000,000 of Terra USD from the same, Curve three pool.
随着流动性从Curve池中退出，TerraUSD变得……用什么词来形容呢？
With this exiting of liquidity from the Curve pool, TerraUSD became what's the word?
脆弱。
Fragile.
由于流动性所剩无几，锚定机制变得脆弱。
The peg became fragile because there just was not a lot of liquidity left
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
在这些提款之后。
After these withdrawals.
如果你回顾一下Terra Luna的历史，就在一个月前，他们用大量Terra USD购买了大量比特币来支撑锚定，还买了不少Avalanche。
And like, if you go back in Terra Luna history, like a month before they used a lot of Terra USD to buy a bunch of Bitcoin to prop up the peg, they bought a bunch of Avalanche.
他们对Terra USD做了不负责任的操作，这也抽走了这个池子的流动性，但这些是Terra稳定币崩盘前最后几次从该池子提取流动性的行为，因为在5月7日的第二天，Terra USD的价格跌到了0.97美分。
Like they were doing irresponsible things with Terra USD, which also took away liquidity from this pool, but these are the last few withdrawals of liquidity from this pool that happened right before the demise of the actual Terra stable coin because the next day after May 7, next day on on May, Terra USD fell to 0.97¢.
第二天跌到0.75美分，再过两天，最终价格仅剩13美分。
The next day it fell to 0.75¢, and then two days after that, it would ultimately trade at just 13¢.
所以这些是稳定币崩盘前的最后几次流动性撤出。
And so these were the last withdrawals of liquidity before the the Sablecoin Yeah.
所以
So
简街原本应该只是投资者，也确实投资了，但最终却将刀插入了Terraform和Terra Luna，帮助加速了崩溃，同时也退出了他们的仓位。
Jane Street just was supposed was supposed to be an investor, was an investor, but ended up plunging the knife into Terraform and Terra Luna and helping to precipitate the collapse, also exiting their position.
顺便说一下，起诉华尔街简街的同一名管理员也对Jump提起了诉讼。
I mean, by the way, the the same administrator who is suing Wall Street Jane Street also has a lawsuit against Jump.
谁
Who
声称类似类型，他们声称Jump做了同样的事情？
claimed similar type they claimed that Jump did the same things?
是的，大概花了40亿美元之类的。
Yeah, for like $4,000,000,000 or something.
就像，我确信他们做了这些事。
Like, I'm sure they did these things.
就像这些，是的。
Like, these Yeah.
是
Are
这些人对Terra的运作方式最为了解。
these are the most informed people about how Terra functions.
是的。
Yes.
他们利益相关最大。
They have the most at stake.
所以，确实，像这样构建的算法稳定币，注定会发生这种事。
So it's it's true that an algorithmic stablecoin, the way it was constructed, it was always destined for this type of thing to happen.
这就像命中注定。
It was like destiny.
没错。
Yep.
而且事实上，某种程度上，这些基金就是这么运作的。
And it's also true that, like, I've at some level, I mean, that's what these funds do.
我的意思是，它们完全是掠食者。
Mean, they're absolute sharks.
所以你就像在鲨鱼面前晃着一块牛排，然后说：别吃这个，你知道我们会成为朋友的。
So you're waving like a chunk of, like a hunk of steak Right.
你拿着一块牛排在鲨鱼面前晃，还说：别吃它，你知道我们会成为朋友的。
In front of a shark, and you're saying, don't eat this, like, know you're gonna be my friend.
然后它会怎么样呢？
And then it like, what's it going to do?
它会把牛排吃掉。
It's going to eat the steak.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，事情就是这样发生的。
I mean, that's what happened.
结果发现鱼就是食物。
Turns out fish are food.
是的。
Yes.
现在看来，当时对这件事的反应尤其激烈，我想是这样。
Now, I think there was a there was an especially vitriolic reaction to this, I guess.
在某种程度上，戴维，我觉得加密货币推特上的人在试图找一个反派、一个故事，然后猛攻他们。
It felt, in some ways, David, to me, like crypto Twitter was trying to find a villain, the story, and hammer on them.
并不是说简街没有问题，或者他们不是反派。
Not to say that Jane Street is innocent or they're not a villain.
他们确实有点像，但为什么我们现在才谈论四年前的事呢？
They they kind of are, but like, why are we now talking about this four years later?
是的。
Yeah.
这正是我问题的一部分。
Was part of my question.
还有一篇关于早上10点抛售的文章，称Jane Street导致了比特币价格下跌。
And there was also this this article that came out about the 10AM drop, how Jane Street broke Bitcoin's price.
这开始将一些责任归咎于Jane Street，不仅针对四年前2022年的事件，还将其视为当前比特币价格受压的原因。
And this starts to cast some blame on Jane Street, not only for events four years ago in 2022, but also a reason for price suppression of Bitcoin now.
他们声称比特币价格每天早上10点都会下跌。
And they're claiming there's a drop at 10AM of Bitcoin price.
每天早上10点都像时钟一样准时。
It's 10AM every day like clockwork.
这是因为Jane Street在搞一些花招。
And it's because Jane Street is doing some shenanigans.
背后是我不太清楚的某些传统金融对冲技术，涉及iBit。
It's behind the scenes with, I don't know, different TradFi hedging techniques such involving iBit.
我没有完全涵盖所有这些细节。
I didn't fully cover all of the details of this.
我觉得这仍然是一个正在发展的故事，网络侦探们正试图去挖掘和测量，但我们其实还无法得知真相。
Think this is an ongoing developing story that like internet sleuths are trying to like, you know, poke at and measure, but we don't really have the the truth of the matter here.
是的。
Yeah.
但他们指出，一旦这场诉讼公布，这种现象似乎就停止了。
And so but they did note that once this lawsuit dropped, apparently That stopped happening.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
现象停止了，因此他们把矛头指向了Jane Street。
Stopped stopped happening, and so they're pointing at Jane Street
并说这一点我仍然归类为随机游走的范围内。
and saying Which I am still categorizing inside of the random walk range.
是吗？
Are you?
只是恰好有一天上涨了而已。
Like, it just happened to go up for a day.
我的意思是，我需要更多确凿的证据，才能真正将Jane Street的活动与比特币的价格联系起来。
Like, I would need further substantial evidence to really relate Jane Street's activities with the the price of Bitcoin.
不过，这个故事的一部分是加密货币开始意识到，传统金融工具一旦启动，可能会变成牵着狗走的尾巴。
Well, so part of this story though is crypto, I think, waking up to the fact that with TradFi instruments, the that starts that can start to become the tail that wags the dog.
这是同一个故事的一部分。
So part of the same story.
2100万的上限只有在它上面的市场是诚实的前提下才有效。
The the 21,000,000 cap only works if the market sitting on top of it is honest.
所以，2100万的硬上限，只有在比特币链上时才是真正的2100万。
So the 21,000,000 hard cap, that's only 21,000,000 on chain if it's Bitcoin.
但如果你开始创造这些不同的比特币部分准备金制度，对吧。
If you start creating these different Bitcoin fractional reserve Right.
各种合成品、衍生品和期权。
Objects Synthetic and derivatives and options.
如果你有这个能力，完全可以制造出210亿个合成比特币。
You can make 21,000,000,000 synthetic Bitcoins if you want to and have the means.
没错。
Exactly.
而且我打赌，如果这类情况开始发生，那么比特币的稀缺性就会变得不那么重要了。
And in I bet if if that sort of thing starts to happen, then the scarcity of Bitcoin matters less Yeah.
在一个合成比特币的世界里，这已经开始对现实中存在的那2100万枚比特币的实际价格产生连锁影响。
In a synthetic Bitcoin world, and that is starting to have ripple effects on the actual price of the 21,000,000 real Bitcoin that exists out there somewhere.
这就是传统金融的所作所为——我知道，传统金融的花招已经开始影响整个加密货币领域。
That's that's the charge that TradFi is I know, TradFi shenanigans are starting to affect the rest of crypto.
是的。
Yeah.
我记得2017年学到的第一个金融课是，我当时参与了很多ICO相关的Subreddit、社群和聊天室，到了2018年，这些地方有一个共同点：价格全面下跌，而最常见的想法就是有人在压低价格。
This I remember one of the first financial lessons I ever learned in 2017 was I was in a bunch of ICO, like subreddits and communities and chat rooms, and there was a common denominator amongst all of them in 2018, where like price was going down across the board, and a very common thought was somebody is suppressing the price.
必须买入我们的代币，因为价格被压制了。
Gotta buy our token because the price is suppressed.
有人在操纵我们持仓的价格，故意把价格压低。
Some of the people are manipulating price of our bags, and they're manipulating them down.
当我看到那种行为，比如有人在外面压制我们的价格，比特币明明值7万美元，却因为某个假想敌在压价而应该值15万美元时，我就觉得天哪，等一下。
And when I see that behavior of just like somebody's out there suppressing our price and like Bitcoin's at $70,000, but it should be at a $150,000 because this boogeyman is suppressing the price, I'm like God, minute.
等等。
Wait second.
等等，我对那个不太确定。
Wait, I don't know about that.
我不太清楚。
I don't know.
这就是我大致思考的方式，并不是说我在怀疑这类事情正在发生，各种花招也在上演，但我的意思是，我认为我们不能仅仅因为这个原因就责怪比特币，你知道的，它现在在6万美元区间交易。
That's how I sort of think about like, not that I'm doubting that these types of things are happening and shenanigans are happening, but I mean, I think it's just, like, we can't blame that for the reason that Bitcoin is, you know, trading the 60 k range.
如果比特币的公允价值以及市场想要达到的均衡点真的是15万美元，而Jane Street在压制价格，市场终究是真相的机器。
If if Bitcoin's fair value and the what the market wants to equilibria at equilibria at is truly a $150,000, and James Street is suppressing the price, It can only markets are truth machines.
Jane Street只能压制这么久，直到他们自己爆仓或者发生其他事情，然后我们就会飙升至15万美元。
Jane Street can only do that for so long until they blow up or something happens and then we spike up to a 150.
就像，我们最终会达到那个价格的。
Like, we will get there.
是的
Yeah.
问题是需求，对吧？
The problem is demand, isn't it?
我的意思是，现在的问题就在这里。
I mean, that's the problem right now.
这并不是什么Jane Street在针对我们。
It's not a you know, it's something that Jane Street is doing to us.
这只是我们所处的周期阶段。
It's just where we are in the cycle.
不过，有一点似乎很明显，那就是加密推特上的人总想找一个反派。
I guess one thing though, it seems like is crypto Twitter is looking for a villain.
我们曾经有过非常
We had a very
我们一直争论的。
what we always argue.
我们我们
We we
在上一轮熊市中，我们有一套非常清晰明确的反派角色。
had a very clean and clear set of villains during last bear market.
意思是，
Mean,
那是上帝，太简单了。
it was God, it was so easy.
有三个。
There were three of them.
Terilu、Alaskanski、FGX。
Terilu, Alaskanski, FGX.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
所有这些，还有根斯勒，正如我们所说。
All of and also then Gensler, as we were Yes.
对。
Right.
那么，谁是反派呢？
Like, who are the villains?
这就是为什么
This is why
现在在某种程度上是这样。
Now it's in some level.
现在我们
Now we
就是无法摆脱自己的困境。
just can't get out of our way.
我们要照镜子，必须审视一下使用场景。
Look We in have the mirror, and we have to look at sort of the use case.
现在就像是困难模式了。
It it's like hard mode now.
所以我认为有些人试图在外面找一些反派，而你总能找到反派。
And so I think there's some reaction of trying to find some villains out there, and there's always you can always find villains.
都是暂时尴尬的，你知道的，你知道的，Citadel成员。
Are all temporary temporarily embarrassed, you know, you know, Citadel members.
加密亿万富翁。
Crypto billionaires.
加密亿万富翁。
Crypto billionaires.
是的。
Yeah.
嗯哼。
Uh-huh.
Meta正在重启其稳定币计划，大卫。
Meta is reviving its stablecoin plans, David.
看来Zuckbucks要回来了。
The Zuckbucks are coming back, it looks like.
这是什么？
What's this?
好的。
Okay.
所以，你还记得2019年的DM项目吧。
So, I mean, you remember the DM project of 2019.
对吧？
Correct?
哦，是的。
Oh, yeah.
对。
Yeah.
所以Facebook在稳定币方面是先行者。
So Facebook was early to stable coins.
实际上，从技术上讲，它并不是一个稳定币。
I was actually technically wasn't a stable coin.
他们实际上想用自己的内部区块链创建一种自己的货币。
They actually wanted to make their own currency using their own internal blockchain.
他们开发了Move语言，并希望将其应用于区块链。
They created the Move language, and they wanted to apply that to to blockchain.
我记得就是这样。
That's that's how I remember it.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
而且最初它并不是与美元挂钩的。
And it wasn't at first, it wasn't a dollar.
它实际上是一篮子法定货币。
It was actually like a A basket fiat currencies.
它甚至比稳定币还要激进。
It was even more wild than stablecoin.
它甚至更加雄心勃勃。
It was even more ambitious.
他们想在自己的区块链上创建一种货币。
They wanted to make their own currency on their own blockchain.
我要说，他们远远领先于时代。
And I will say they were ahead of their they were way ahead of the time.
伊丽莎白·沃伦并不喜欢这个。
Elizabeth Warren did not like this.
很多人不喜欢这个。
A lot of people did like A lot of people did not like this.
但我清楚地记得，马克·扎克伯格被召去国会接受质询，被狠狠地批了一顿，说他越界了。
But I do have a very clear memory of Mark Zuckerberg getting called into Congress and him just getting grilled about like, you are out of out of line.
这超出了你的职责范围，诸如此类的话。
Like, this is out of scope for you, blah blah blah.
没人会允许你这么做？
Nobody wanted How dare you?
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，这距离剑桥分析公司丑闻也太近了，而Facebook本就涉嫌操纵选举，现在又要推出自己的货币。
I mean, this was also way too close after the Cambridge Analytica news, and so the idea of Facebook who's already manipulating elections is also getting their own currency.
所以，这标志着大规模反科技情绪的开端，而这种情绪至今依然存在。是的。
So it was the very beginning of a huge anti tech backlash that is still with us to this Yes.
无论如何，快进到今天，Meta正在向第三方公司发布一份产品需求建议书（RFP），目标是将稳定币整合进Facebook生态系统。
Anyways, fast forward to today, Meta is putting out a request for a product, an RFP to third party firms with the goal to begin integration of a stable coin into the Facebook ecosystem.
这包括Facebook、Instagram和WhatsApp，这些平台加起来拥有数十亿用户。
So that includes Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, which has, I don't know, a billion users across all of these things.
所以，覆盖面极其广泛。
So incredible distribution.
你就
You just
发出了这个RFP？
sent out an RFP for that?
是的，他们就能这么做。
Yeah, can just do that.
他们就是这么做的。
That's what they're doing.
就像我们说，嘿，我们有30亿用户。
Like we hey, we have 3,000,000,000 users.
我们只是，你知道的，在找，想找个人
We're just, you know, looking We for would something like somebody
帮我们做一个稳定币，拜托。
build us a Sablecoin, please.
你觉得会是谁呢？
Who do you think that's gonna be?
我打赌Tempo在最前面
I bet you Tempo is at the top of
那张名单上。
that list.
Stripe。
Stripe.
Stripe，Stripe Tempo。
Stripe, Stripe Tempo.
你很清楚Tempo是做什么的。
You know exactly what Tempo is for.
Stripe的创始人实际上在Meta董事会里。
The Stripe founders are actually on the meta board of directors.
你知道吗？
You know that?
嗯，这太合理了。
Well, that makes way too much sense.
是的，没错。
Yeah, uh-huh.
是的，Stripe 绝对是最热门的选择。
Yes, Stripe is definitely the hottest candidate.
所以这里的思路是，Meta 将为其生态系统内部推出一种原生的稳定币。
And so the idea here is that like meta is just going to get a native stablecoin for use inside of its ecosystem.
对。
Yep.
瑞安，我有个问题问你。
As Question question for you, Ryan.
你对这个持乐观态度吗？
Are you bullish on this?
你觉得这会成为一个被广泛采用的分布式产品吗？
Do you think this will be a good adopted distributed product?
那挺好。
That'd be fine.
是的。
Yeah.
我的意思是，真正让我感到兴奋和看好的是那些真正的原生加密产品，而稳定币在这方面算是相关的。
I mean, like, what gets me bullish and excited is, like, true crypto native kind of products, and a stablecoin is sort of adjacent to that.
当然，金融民主化我认为是一个不错的进步。
Certainly, democratizing finance, I think it's a it's a good step.
这更加去银行化了。
It's a bit more bankless.
Meta怎么走，其他社交媒体就怎么走。
I think so goes Meta, so goes the rest of social media.
所以，是的，我会把这归入看好的一类。
So, yeah, I would put this in the in the bullish camp.
我不确定这些稳定币的交易量中有多少会真正进入公开的、无许可的区块链。
I'm not sure how much of that stablecoin volume is going to actually hit open public permissionless blockchains.
对。
Right.
例如，它可能完全在像Tembo这样的平台上。
It could be all on something like Tembo, for instance.
但我想至少有一部分会实现。
But I imagine at least some of it will.
所以我认为这实际上是一件大事。
So I think this is a big deal, actually.
这就像是熊市中的一种现象，消息在背景中发酵，没人真正在意，也没人真正反应，但这可能是推动稳定币从目前的3500亿美元增长到万亿美元以上的故事的一部分。
And it's like one of those bear market things where it's news in the background, no one really cares, no one really reacts, but this could be part of the story to get Stablecoins from, what, 350,000,000,000 right now to a trillion plus.
你怎么看？
What do you think?
我对这个产品的增长持悲观态度。
I'm bearish on the product growth here.
我不看好Meta及其生态系统。
I don't see Meta and Meta's ecosystem.
比如，我不明白为什么需要稳定币，我用的Meta产品基本上就是Instagram，偶尔用用WhatsApp。
Like, I don't know why I need stablecoins inside of, like, the the meta products that I use is basically just Instagram and occasionally WhatsApp.
我看不出我个人对稳定币有什么需求。
I don't see that my personal need for stablecoins.
当你想在WhatsApp上给某人付款时呢？
When you wanna pay someone on WhatsApp?
你可以在Instagram上给某人付款。
You can pay someone on Instagram.
在WhatsApp上付款的可能性要大得多，因为WhatsApp确实是一个日常使用的工具，想想看。
Paying someone on WhatsApp is probably far more likely than because like, WhatsApp does have, like, it's actually the the normal Think about
我注意到，我的一些家人或联系人，当我们只是视频聊天、叙叙旧的时候，就会直接用Instagram。
this, like, so I've noticed I, you know, certain of my, like, family members or contacts, when we get on that call just to do, a video chat, catch up with them or something, we'll just use Instagram.
对吧？
Right?
你知道，我不需要专门用一个应用来做这个，因为，哦，好吧。
You know, I don't need a special app for that because, oh, okay.
我们都在Instagram上。
We're all on Instagram.
对。
Right.
但假如我只是想给我表弟转点钱呢？
But what if I just wanna send my cousin money, let's say?
是的。
Yeah.
我可以一直留在Instagram上，给他发送一些稳定币。
I could just stay on Instagram and send him some stable coins.
我觉得这可以成为一个类似Venmo的替代品。
I think could that's be like a Venmo type replacement.
通过WhatsApp进行汇款对他们来说是一个相当大的可能性。
Remittances through WhatsApp would be a pretty big possibility for them.
我想，我对Instagram和Facebook持悲观态度。
I guess like, I'm bearish on it in Instagram and Facebook.
我可能更看好WhatsApp内的这种功能。
I'm probably more bullish on it inside of WhatsApp.
好的。
Okay.
嗯，我们得看看谁赢得RFP，是的。
Well, are the things we'll have to see who who wins the RFP, Yeah.
然后我们再继续。
And we go from there.
还有，Zac XBT，我们谈过这个吗？
Also, Zac XBT, did we talk about this?
这是本周的犯罪风险暴露，Zac XBT一开始发了个预告。
This is the crime, crime exposure Okay, of the week in so Zac XBT, he started with a teaser.
这是对犯罪风险暴露的预先公告。
Was a pre announcement of the crime exposure.
他在2月23日发布了这个。
He dropped this on February 23.
这是周一吗？
Was this Monday?
一项重大调查于2月26日公布，也就是今天，针对加密领域最赚钱的企业之一，多名员工长期滥用内部数据进行内幕交易。
A major investigation dropping February 26, that's today, of one of crypto's most profitable businesses, where multiple employees abused internal data to insider trade over a prolonged period of time.
所以Zac XBT直接公布了这件事。
So Zac XBT just drops this.
当然，Zac XBT是所有侦探中的侦探。
And of course, Zac XBT is the sleuth of all sleuths.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我的意思是，你可不想成为Zac的 targets。
I mean, you don't wanna be on any of Zac
XBT的，是的。
XBT's Yeah.
千万别惹上Zac的注意。
Do not wanna be in Zac's crosshairs.
你，是的。
You yeah.
在扎克的瞄准范围内
Are in Zac's cross
是的。
Yes.
他为加密世界带来正义。
He's bringing justice to crypto.
他是我们的西部荒野。
He is our Wild West.
他就是那个西部荒野。
He's the he's the Wild West.
义警，警长。
Vigilante, the sheriff.
警长。
The sheriff.
他是我们的警长。
He's our sheriff.
来自西部荒野。
Of the Wild West.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
嗯嗯。
Uh-huh.
他带来正义。
And he brings justice.
做得非常棒。Anyway，如果你
Doing a fantastic Anyways If you
如果你不喜欢Zach XBT，那对你来说可不太好看。
don't like Zach XBT, that's a bad look for you.
你是个罪犯。
You're a criminal.
你是个罪犯。
You're a criminal.
有点像罪犯。
Kind of a criminal.
Anyway，现在他到了一个阶段，开始提前预告了，是的。
Anyway, so now he's getting to the point where he's like pre announcing Yeah.
他即将要做的事。
What he's about to do.
伙计，
Dude,
这个视频已经有1200万次播放了，老兄。
12,000,000 views on this screen, man.
很兴奋。
Was excited.
我看到了这条推文，我
I saw this tweet, I'm
这可是我的超级碗。
like, this is my Super Bowl.
不过有人在Polymarket上为此设了赌盘。
Though a Polymarket spun up about this.
哪家加密公司会被Zac XBT揭露内幕交易？
Which crypto company will Zac XBT expose for insider trading?
是的。
Yeah.
这周你有关注Polymarket上的情况吗？
Were you watching this this week at Polymarket?
实际上。
Was actually
我说过，我上周就发过这个给你，当时我还说，是的。
I said I remember sending this to you in the week and I was like Yeah.
当时有五六家公司概率都挺高，我就想，哇，市场真的完全不了解。
There was like five or six companies that had like a decent probability on it and I was like, wow, the market truly doesn't know.
市场里谁最清楚情况的热门名单？
Market Who's who knows what's going hyped list?
我认为最高的是Meteora，大家猜得最多的就是它。
I think the highest one was Meteora, was people's guess, the biggest guest.
Meteora正是Libra丑闻的来源，也是过去很多模因币狙击游戏的发源地。
And Meteora is where the Libra debacle came from and a lot of the other meme coin sniping games of old.
Pump Fun也在上面，还有其他几个。
Pump Fun was on there, a handful of others.
你知道吗，Bankless并没有出现在名单上。
You know, wasn't Bankless was not on there.
我要说这一点。
I'll I'll I'll say that.
如果我们没有一个适合内幕交易的平台，我们该怎么评估呢？
How do you how would we do in we don't have a venue for insider trading.
但有一家竞争对手在整个星期里一直在Polymarket上迅速抢占市场份额。
But there was one contender that just started gaining market share on poly market all week.
好吧？
Okay?
你知道，这立刻就是一个可怕的信号。
He You know, immediately that's a passed horror sign.
在。
On.
慢慢上升，一开始很低，最后等等，对吧，
Slowly creeped up, started low, ended up Wait, right,
你说的是Meteora？
you said Meteora?
抱歉，你说得对。
Excuse me, you're right.
Axiom，Axiom。
Axiom, Axiom.
Axiom。
Axiom.
Axiom，哦，我刚把它掉了吗？
Axiom, oh, did I just drop it?
Axiom，赢家是Axiom。
Axiom, the winner is Axiom.
恭喜你。
Congratulations.
你赢了这家加密公司。
You won to the crypto company.
扎克XPT将因内幕交易被曝光。
Zach XPT will expose for insider trading.
在扎克XPT正式宣布之前，股价就已经飙升了。
And it spiked up pre Zach XPT actually formally announcing this.
所以，出人意料，又是Axiom。
So it was surprise, surprise, Axiom.
这就是本周的获奖者。
That's who won the prize of the week.
那么，Zac XBT 指控 Acxiom 什么？
So what did what did Zac XBT expose about Acxiom?
这里的指控是什么？
What's the charge here?
或者我该说， allegation 是什么？
Or the allegation, I should say.
是的。
Yeah.
指控。
The allegation.
是的。
Yeah.
所以我们可能应该先说说 Acxiom 到底是什么？
So we should probably start with like just what what is Acxiom?
Acxiom 是一个在 Solana 上的模因币交易平台，同时也有很多社交功能。
Acxiom is a it's a marketplace, meme coin marketplace on Solana that also has a lot of like social features as well.
所以如果你一直在迷因币圈里打转，它就像是你的首页。
And so if you are just in the meme coin trenches, it's kinda like your front page.
它就像是为迷因币、讨论迷因币和了解迷因币而设的Reddit。
It's like Reddit for like, Reddit for Meme Coins and for talking about Meme Coins and learning about Meme Coins.
不一定是讨论，但包含大量市场信息。
Not not necessarily talking, but just like a lot of market information.
比如迷因币市场，以及二级和三级信息。
So like Meme Coin markets and secondary and tertiary information as well
这里的市场情况如何？
as of the markets here?
是的。
Yeah.
很有趣。
Are fun.
一起犯罪。
One crime.
这些是 meme 币吗？
Are these are these meme coins?
跑路币。
Rug coin.
是的。
Yeah.
侦探币、冒牌币。
Detective coin, imposter coin.
这不就是我们网络角落里的东西吗？
Like, aren't this is not Some of our my my corner of the Internet.
总之，根据扎克的说法，Acxiom 的员工可以访问内部仪表板，使他们能够通过钱包或推荐码搜索用户，并查看其他关联的钱包和交易记录，获取大量数据。
So anyways, according to Zach, Acxiom staff had access to internal dashboards and that allowed staff to search users by wallet or referral code and view other linked wallets, transaction histories, just a lot of data.
我想象的有点像一个数据作战室，用来追踪谁在参与 meme 币游戏和 meme 币战壕。
Kind of like what I'm envisioning is like a data war room of who's playing in the Meme Coin games and the Meme Coin trenches.
到了 2026 年，meme 币战壕里的玩家已经演变成最残酷、最精明、最复杂的交易者。
And like, you know, by the year of our Lord 2026, the Meme Coin trenches have just like devolved down into just like the most cutthroat capable sophisticated traders.
加密货币里已经没有不精通交易的玩家了。
Like there's no there's no like unsophisticated trader left in meme coins.
都是真正热爱这个游戏的人。
It's all people who like truly love the game.
是那些在扑克桌边混了很久的扑克玩家。
Poker players who have been at the poker table for a long time.
全是鲨鱼，
All sharks,
没有鱼了。
no fish.
鲨鱼，没错。
Sharks, exactly.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
所以扎克声称，Acxiom内部员工拥有的数据比市场上任何人都多。
So Zach alleged that like there's the Acxiom internal employees who have way more data than anyone else in the market.
现在，扎克XBT的帖子中包含大量截图和证据。
Now the thread here of Zach XBT has a bunch of screenshots and evidence.
这里有一段视频，我认为很好地说明了情况，实际上也被用作证据，证明Stack XBT是如何发现这一切的
Here's a clip that kinda, I think illustrates pretty well what's going on, and was actually used as evidence as to how as Stack XBT discovered all
这里的欺诈行为。
the fraud here.
这是Acxiom的一名高级业务开发员工，他在谈论研究各种钱包。
This is one of the employees, a senior business development employee of Acxiom, and he's talking about researching various wallets.
以下是他说的话。
So here's what he had to say.
如果你有一个钱包、推荐码或用户ID，这三个中的任何一个，我都能查出与那个人相关的任何事情。
That if you have a wallet or a ref code or a user ID, any of those three, I can find out anything to do with that person.
如果他们在行动上，我
If they're on action, I
拥有他们的钱包。
have their wallets.
我拥有所有人的信息。
I have all everyone.
我有时间和日期。
I have time and dates.
我甚至能看到他们追踪了谁以及那些人的名字。
I can even see who they track and what they're named.
所以这名员工进入了Acxiom数据库中他可能无权访问的部分，他访问这些数据是为了找出关于那些钱包的信息，没错。
So this employee was going to parts of the Acxiom database that he probably shouldn't have access to, and he was accessing this in order to find out information about, like, the wallets Right.
以及这些钱包背后的交易者。
And the traders behind these wallets.
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