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无银行国家,欢迎来到四月。
Bankless nation, welcome to the April.
到了无银行每周汇总的时间了。
It's time for the bankless weekly roll up.
谷歌发布了一项重大的量子警告,直指我们——大卫,不是你和我,而是针对加密货币。他们取得了算法上的突破,使破解ECDSA以及支撑比特币、以太坊和我们这里所有加密签名的进度提升了20倍。
Google released a major quantum warning directed squarely at us, David, not you and me, but at crypto, let's say, they have an algorithmic breakthrough that just 20 x ed progress towards cracking ECDSA and some of the crypto signatures that underlie Bitcoin, Ethereum, and basically everything we do here.
这对加密货币来说有多糟糕?
How bad is it for crypto?
我觉得这相当令人担忧。
I think it's pretty concerning.
有些人可能会说我过于恐慌了。
Some might call me a panicking though.
我们会深入这篇论文,看看无银行听众们如何判断。
We'll get into the paper and see what Bankless listeners decide.
当我们似乎无法就此事的重要性达成共识时,这对加密货币来说无疑更糟,这使得
It's certainly worse for crypto when we can't seemingly come to consensus about how big of a deal it is, which makes it
更大的问题。
an even bigger deal.
这就像一点点
It's like a little
某种程度上的协调难题。
bit of a a coordination problem, if you will.
与此同时,回到特朗普那边,他昨晚就伊朗战争和‘史诗狂怒行动’的现状向全国发表讲话。
Meanwhile, back into the Trump side of things, he addressed the nation last night about the state of the Iran war, the state of, Operation Epic Fury.
我的看法是,这是一场十九分钟的演讲,本质上是为了向市场传递坏消息:我们还得再坚持三周。
In my my take was that it was a nineteen minute speech basically to deliver the bad news to the markets that we are in this for three more weeks.
他说,我们会详细讨论这些以及更多内容。
He said, we're gonna talk about that all all that and more.
他说,那些荒谬的举动自然会平息。
He said the straight of whore moves will just open up naturally.
油价会下降,股价会回升,但至少要等到三周后。
Gas prices will come down and stock prices will go back up, but not before three weeks from now at the very least.
我们看看市场在深入了解后是否会因此感到安心。
We'll see if the market is reassured by that when we get into it.
另外,以太坊是不是刚刚提出了一个最终统一所有二层网络的计划?
Also, did Ethereum just come with a plan to finally unite all of the layer twos?
他们称之为以太坊经济区。
They're called Ethereum Economic Zones.
我们会详细解释这意味什么。
We'll spell out what that means.
Aave V4刚刚发布了。
Aave V4 just released.
这次更新有哪些新内容?
What's new in that?
此外,我认为这是Solana历史上最大的一次黑客攻击——Drift交易所遭黑客入侵,损失达3亿美元,这是一家永续合约交易所。
Also, the biggest hack, I think, in Solana history, a $300,000,000 hack, the Drift Exchange, this is a perps exchange, was hacked.
发生了什么?我们能从中吸取什么教训?
What happened, and what can we learn?
这一切都是关于我们在过程中学到的教训,对吧?
It's all about the lessons we learned along the way, isn't it?
在开始之前,瑞安,我可以告诉你一个有趣的事实吗?
Before we get started, Ryan, can I tell you a fun fact?
是的。
Yeah.
但如果真的要有趣的话。
If it it genuinely needs to be fun, though.
我不想要任何不有趣的事实。
I I don't want any of like not fun facts.
好吧,这得是个有趣的事实。
Okay, this needs to be fun one.
这很有趣,因为它暗示了良好的买入价格。
It's fun because it implies good buying prices.
好的。
Okay.
是的。
Yeah.
好的。
Okay.
这是一个
It's a
看跌的有趣事实。
bearish fun fact.
是的。
Yeah.
告诉我。
Tell me.
我们刚刚挺过了自2018年以来比特币最糟糕的一季度。
We just survived the worst q one in Bitcoin since 2018.
天啊。
Oh my god.
这个
This
我可以再给你一个有趣的事实吗?
was Can I can I give you another fun fact?
等等。
Wait.
怎么做到的?
How?
跌幅是多少百分比?
Like what was the percent down?
我的意思是,大幅下跌
I mean, down down
第一季度下跌了24%。
24% in in q one.
那是自2018年以来最糟糕的第一季度。
And that was the worst q one we've ever had since 2018.
2018年。
2018.
是的。
Yeah.
没那么糟糕。
It wasn't that bad.
很好。
Great.
2018年的时候,市场在2017年12月见顶,然后在2018年第一季度下跌了大约60%。
In 2018, like the market topped December 2017, and then it fell like, I think 60% in in q one twenty eighteen.
我对那个第一季度记忆非常深刻,因为那时我还没进入加密货币领域。
I remember that q one very, very well because that was before I into crypto.
但我给你的第二个有趣事实是,比特币曾连续五个月出现月线收阴。
But my second fun fact for you, Ryan, is that Bitcoin had five red monthly candles in a row.
但三月的月线——就在两天前才收盘。
But March, which the March candle finished two days ago Mhmm.
勉强收出一根绿烛。
Eked out a green candle.
就这样吗?
Is that it?
那就是说
Is that that that's
三月份的月线在连续五根红烛之后收出了一根绿烛。
high The the monthly candle for the month of March was green after five red monthly candles.
比特币出现连续五根红月线的情况非常罕见,我觉得这种情况发生过次数极少。
Five red monthly candles in Bitcoin is is I don't I think that's happened a very low number of times.
大卫,我得说,那确实是一根很小的绿烛。
David, I gotta say that that is a tiny green candle right there.
那就是说
That that is a
但至少是根绿烛。
candle But it for green.
好的。
Okay.
这确实是一个很小的绿色蜡烛,但是
It is It's a tiny green candle, but
它是绿色的。
it is green.
我认为,这是这个图表上最小的绿色蜡烛,但它在三月确实是绿色的。
The smallest green candle, I think, this chart maybe, but but it was green in March.
这是个好消息。
That that's good news.
你在开场时提到了周三晚上的特朗普演讲。
You mentioned in the intro the Trump speech that happened on Wednesday night.
他说他要向全国发表讲话。
He said he was going to address the nation.
我认为他提前了24小时发布了通知。
I think he gave some twenty four hour advance notice.
是的。
Yeah.
所有电视网络都必须直播。
All TV networks have to broadcast it.
新闻是什么?
What was the news?
他说了什么?
What did he say?
是的。
Yeah.
他发表了长达十九分钟的演讲,主题是‘史诗狂怒行动’,即对伊朗的战争。此前,特朗普已经就谈判进展进行了长达一周甚至两周的姿态展示,声称谈判进行顺利,并表示自己已经对伊朗采取了降级策略。
So nineteen minute speech about Operation Epic Fury, the war in Iran, that after a week of just like posturing from Trump, two weeks even about posturing about negotiation talks, how negotiation talks are going well, talking about how he's kind of done with Iran and de escalation.
像一些奇怪的事情。
Like weird stuff.
很难弄清楚到底发生了什么。
Like it was hard to know what was really going on.
对吧?
Right?
哦,不,不,我认为他是在明确地展示结束姿态,并向市场人士传递信号:我们差不多要收尾了。
Oh, no, no, I would say he he was firmly posturing the end and signaling to the people in the market that like, we're kind of wrapping this thing up.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧?
Right?
我们正在,我们正在
We're like, we're getting we're getting
是的,但他是以特朗普的方式做的。
Yeah, but was doing it Trump style.
比如,我从伊朗人那里得到了一个奖品,你知道的。
Like, I got a prize, you know, from the Iranians.
是的。
Yeah.
就像,这有点奇怪,实际上很难从杂音中分辨出真正的信号。
Like, some strange it was it was hard to know actually to sort the signal through the noise.
那么,这是信号吗?
So was this the signal?
所以,是的,这是一场非常正式的演讲。
So then, yes, this is a very formal speech.
所以他说,这就是这场演讲。
So he's like, this is this is the speech.
这些不是我的,你知道的,真正的社交媒体动态。
These aren't my, you know, true social posts.
这是马尔科·卢比奥。
This is a Marc Rubio.
我准备了这场演讲。
I prepared this.
这就是这场演讲。
This is the this is the speech.
好的。
Okay.
因此,市场在进入这一阶段时认为,好吧,这是唐纳德·特朗普为这件事画上句号,给我们提供了退出计划,把它收尾了,你知道的,做个总结。
And so the market was going into this thinking like, okay, this is Donald Trump, like tying a bow on this thing, kinda giving us the exit plan, wrapping it up, you know, concluding it.
我认为,这是我对于马库斯预期以及推特预期的解读。
That was, I think, my interpretation of both Marcus anticipation, you know, Twitter's anticipation.
相反,我认为这次讲话的真正目的,我的理解是,只是为了抛出这一句话,我现在就来读一下我认为是整场讲话核心的那句话。
Instead, I think what came out of this, my take is that the whole purpose of this talk was to drop this one line and I'll read that line that I think was the whole point right now.
我们正按计划在短期内完成美国的所有目标。
We are on track to complete all of America's objectives very shortly.
在未来两到三周内,我们将对伊朗进行极其沉重的打击。
We are going to hit Iran extremely hard in the next two to three weeks.
我们要把他们打回他们本该属于的石器时代。
We are going to bring them back to the stone age where they belong.
我认为这整整十九分钟基本上就是为了告诉公众:我们还要再坚持三周。而他在说完这些话后,市场立即做出了相应的反应。
I think the whole nineteen minutes was basically to inform the public that we are in this for three more weeks And the market reacted appropriately right after he said those lines.
石油市场飙升了10%,布伦特原油上涨了10%,WTI上涨了12%。
The oil markets shot up 10%, Brent crude went up 10%, WTI went up 12%.
期货方面,纳斯达克和标普500期货下跌了百分之零点五。
Futures, the Nasdaq and S and P five hundred futures dropped half a percent.
他还说了其他一些事情。
He said a few other things as well.
他说股市并没有真的下跌太多。
He said that the stock market didn't really go down all that much.
他说他认为股市的跌幅会比实际更大。
He said that the stock market was he thought it was going to go down more than it actually did.
他说,在这三周之后,我们会再低迷一段时间,然后会以前所未有的势头反弹。
And so we're going to be down a little bit longer and then they're going to go back up like never before, he said, after this three week period.
这是直接引述吗?
As a direct quote?
这是直接引述。
That was a direct quote.
没错。
That's right.
没错。
That's right.
没错。
That's right.
是的。
Yeah.
因此,目前市场正在消化这一信息。
And so this is the market is currently digesting this as of right now.
这是在那场演讲后的早晨,但这是我的看法。
This is the morning after that speech, but this is my take.
就好像他基本上做了一场十九分钟的演讲,解释了为什么我们需要在伊朗再待三周。
It's like, he basically just gave a nineteen minute speech about why we need to be in Iran for three more weeks.
哇。
Wow.
那句话,我们要把他们打回石器时代,让他们回到本该在的地方。
That line, we're going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong.
这太特朗普了。
That's so Trumpium.
是的。
Yeah.
他不是第一次这么说。
Not the first time he said that.
天哪。
Jeez.
好吧。
Okay.
他并没有说我们会在两到三周内撤离。
Well, he didn't say we're going to leave in two to three weeks.
他只是说我们在接下来的两到三周内会狠狠打击他们。
He just said we're going to hit them hard in the next two to three weeks.
而你
And you
认为市场正在将此解读为我们也会在两到三周内退出吗?
think the market is interpreting that as we're also going to exit in two to three weeks?
不
No.
我认为市场原本解读为我们会在本周末之前就退出。
I think the market was interpreting that we are going to exit, like, this week at the end of this week.
这件事我们已经结束了。
We're done with this thing.
然后特朗普告诉他们,我说:不是这样的。
And then Trump is telling them, I was like, no.
不是。
No.
我们还有两到三周的时间。
We we got two to three more weeks.
我认为在这种情况下,向上取整到三周是安全的。
I think it was safe to round up to three on that scenario.
但你说得对,我觉得你是对的。
But to your point, I think you you're right.
他也没有说我们会在三周内退出。
He did not say that we're out in three weeks either.
这是一个关于美国军队在特定日期进入伊朗的POLYMARKET。
This is a POLYMARKET on US forces entering Iran by a specific date.
到4月30日,POLYMARKET的交易量显示为1800万美元。
And by April 30, POLYMARKET is showing on 18,000,000 of volume.
美国军队进入伊朗的概率约为60%。
There's about a 60% chance that US forces enter Iran.
这意味着地面部队进驻,对吧?
That means boots on the ground, does it not?
是的,没错。
That's I yes.
我认为到本月底前地面部队进驻,POLYMARKET给出的概率是60%。
I think boots on the ground by the end of this month, POLYMARKET is giving a 60% chance.
至于美国和伊朗在特定日期停火的概率,POLYMARKET显示6月30日为60%,5月31日为47%。
And probability on POLYMARKET for US and Iran cease fire by a specific date, 60% by June 30, 47% by May 31.
所以五月接近50%的概率,到12月31日则有73%的概率。
So May, almost a 50% chance into the December 31, a 73% chance.
我的意思是,到本月底还无法结束的概率大约有20%到27%。
So I mean, that's like a 20 a 27% chance that this isn't over by the Oh, end of this
年。
year.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
市场是否已经反映了这一点?
Are the markets pricing that in?
我的意思是,我们可以谈谈有效市场,市场总是把一切因素都定价了。
I mean, we can talk about the efficient The markets always price everything in.
它们已经定价了。
They price it.
一直如此,时刻如此。
Always All the time.
没错。
That's right.
目前越来越多的讨论集中在即将到来的今年晚些时候的中期选举上。
The growing conversation is around midterms, the midterm elections that are coming up later this year.
我认为距离中期选举开始影响局势,只剩下不到六个月了。
So I think we have like just under six months before the midterms start to become are are here.
我的意思是,谁知道特朗普在想什么?
And I mean, who knows what Trump is thinking?
我肯定不知道。
I certainly don't.
但可以说,特朗普根本不想让伊朗战争与中期选举时间上如此接近。
But it's it's to be argued that there's no way that Trump wants the Iran war at all to be proximate to the midterms.
他不希望这样。
He doesn't want that.
现在,是的。
Now Yeah.
特朗普总是……你知道的,我们并不真正了解。
Does Trump always You get what he know, we don't we don't really know.
但还有一个问题,就是一旦卷入其中,你知道,有些力量是他无法控制的。
Well, there's but there's also a question of, like, once you once you are in it, right, you know, there are some forces that, like, he doesn't control
他无法掌控整个局势。
a foreign doesn't control the universe.
没错。
Exactly.
包括霍尔木兹海峡。
Including the Straits Of Hormuz.
所以看看一些图表,我的意思是,这波动很大,情况变化很快,但布伦特原油上涨了10%。
So looking at some charts, I mean, this is volatile, so things are changing in a hurry, but Brent crude up by 10%.
嗯。
Mhmm.
这正是在演讲之后发生的,嗯。
So this was directly after the speech Mhmm.
油价飙升,债券市场,十年期国债收益率又回到了4.4%。
Oil shot Bond markets, the ten year T bill note back on its way to $4, or sorry, 4.4% yield.
对吧?
Right?
还记得我们上周聊过吗?当十年期国债收益率上升时,这对特朗普来说压力更大。
Remember we talked about, I think it was last week, as those yields number number those yield numbers tick up on the ten year, that's more pressure on Trump.
去年关税恐慌时,你就看到过,收益率曾达到4.6%。
And you kinda saw them back in the tariff scare of last year, 4.6%.
那时情况开始变得非常令人不安,于是特朗普收回了他关于关税的言论。
That started to feel very uncomfortable, and Trump walked back his tariff language.
所以这对他又构成了另一重压力。
So this is another pressure on him.
当然,加密货币价格,我们这是在干嘛啊,老兄?
Of course, crypto prices, what are we doing here, man?
比特币下跌4%,以太坊下跌6%。
So Bitcoin down 4%, ETH down six percent.
很难说这是否与这一切有关,或者到底发生了什么。
Hard to know if that is swirled up in all of this or what's going on.
但现在标普指数的走势还算中性。
But now the S and P is trading kind of like neutrally.
是这样吗?
Is that the case?
是的。
Yeah.
标普指数下跌,期货下跌了0.5%,但在录制时,标普指数已经略微转绿,所以我们目前的标普指数水平,至少在股市方面,已经回到了特朗普演讲前的水平。
So S and P dropped, futures dropped by half a percent, and now at the time of recording, the S and P has actually flipped green, marginally green, so we are actually at the same stock market prices, at least in the S and P, as we were before the Trump speech.
我对这件事的看法是,市场消化新闻的时间越长,新闻——也就是这场整个伊朗战争——就越会被正常化。
I have a take on this, which is that the longer that the market has to digest the news, the news being the war, the whole entire Iran war, the more it kind of comes normalized.
我们在解放日关税事件中就看到过这种情况。
And we saw this with the Liberation Day tariffs.
市场最初反应非常剧烈,但每当有新的关税日推文、对中国的姿态或宣布进一步对中国加征关税时,市场虽然仍有反应,但随着时间推移,反应越来越温和。
The markets reacted violently at the very beginning and every single time there was another Tariff Day tweet or posturing against China or announcement on further tariffs on China, the market reacted but it reacted in a more muted fashion as time went on.
我在伊朗这里也看到了同样的趋势。
And I'm seeing that with Iran here too.
市场确实在反应,但它开始越来越快地对此置之不理。
The market is reacting but it's starting to shrug it off quicker and quicker and quicker.
我们都还记得解放日恐怖分子事件的情况。
And we all kind of remember what happened with the liberation de terrorists.
最终,市场根本不再关心,然后我们创下了新的历史高点。
Like, eventually the market just stopped caring and then we went to new all time highs.
每一个新的危机都有其独特的事实和背景,所以我们不能断言这种情况一定会重演。
Every single new crisis is facts and circumstances, so we can't really say that's going to be repeated.
但今天早上,特朗普告诉我们,他们将在未来三周对伊朗进行猛烈打击,而标普500指数却收涨,这让我对这种模式产生了兴趣。
But with the S and P being green as of this morning after Trump told us that they're going to strike Iran hard for the next three weeks and the stock market comes out green, I'm kinda interested in that pattern.
我的意思是,大概吧。
I mean, I guess.
很难知道市场到底在想什么,但确实有一些因素会影响市场,比如石油。
So it's hard to know what the market is thinking, but there are some forces that have to impact the market, which is, like, one of which is is oil.
如果霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭,油价会飙升。
And so if Strait Of Hormuz is closed for longer, oil prices spike.
这是来自小林信函的一份分析。
Here's an analysis from the Kobayasi letter.
当油价突破每桶112美元时,我们的模型显示,如果这一水平持续两个月,美国CPI通胀率将上升至3.6%。
As oil prices rise above 112 per barrel, our models indicate that if current levels are sustained, so if you have that oil price another two months, US CPI inflation will rise to 3.6%.
因此,能源成本将影响通胀,而这当然会影响美联储的决策。
So energy costs are going to affect inflation, and, of course, that's going to affect what the Fed does.
迈克尔·纳托指出,这可能导致美国经济增长放缓,根据POLYMARKET的数据,美国出现衰退的可能性已从20%上升至36%。
That could Michael Nato makes the point that that could spiral into lower growth in The US, the possibility of a recession is actually up on the air from like 20% to 36%, according to POLYMARKET.
而且你还有林·奥尔登在谈论这个。
And you also have Lynn Alden who is talking about this.
有些人问我,我什么时候会对能源问题淡定下来。
Some people ask me when I'll be chill about energy.
她说,我看着我的石油量化专家,他一点都不淡定。
She said, I'm looking at my my oil quant guy, and he's not chill.
他得重新变得淡定,而他现在完全不淡定。
He has to become chill again, and he is the opposite of chill right now.
她转发了一条罗里·约翰逊的推文,我猜他是林·奥尔登的石油量化专家,他在讨论一种他称为‘气囊情景’的情况,即当霍尔木兹海峡被封锁时,就像出现了一种稀缺性气囊,影响着不同地区之后的状况。
She is posting a tweet from Rory Johnson, who I presume is Lynn Alden's oil quant person, and he is talking about a scenario which he calls the air pocket scenario, which as ply is restricted from the straight of Hormuz, it's like a scarcity air pocket that affects different geographies after
这需要时间才能到达。
That takes time to get there.
那是。
That's
所以这是因为传播需要时间,对吧?
It why it's takes like time to dairy propagate, right?
所以,如果这种情况现在发生,北美地区的交付可能会在4月15日停止,但在非洲和亚洲地区,停止时间会早得多,这就像是一个在能源经济中逐渐蔓延的‘气囊’。
So it might take, if if, you know, that happens right now, deliveries could stop on April 15 in North America, but they stop far earlier in Africa and place it in Asia, and so this is like an air pocket that makes its way throughout the energy economy.
所以,我不知道,这似乎仍然取决于霍尔木兹海峡。
So, I don't know, it still seems to depend on the Strait Of Hormuz.
这些因素中有些并不在特朗普的掌控之中,但看起来他至少目前准确把握了市场的叙事。
Some of these factors are not in Trump's but it seems like he's getting the narrative right, at least for the market right now.
人们相信他的话。
They're believing him.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
所有这些都将反映在通货膨胀中。
And this all is going to show up in inflation.
比如,石油和债券有关系吗?
Like, does oil have to do with the bonds?
更高的油价会使我们这里的国内所有东西都变得更贵。
Well, higher oil prices makes everything cost more domestically on our in our neck of the woods.
如果国内东西更贵了,就意味着通货膨胀在上升。
If things cost more domestically, means inflation is going up.
这意味着美联储将提高利率。
That means the Fed's going to hike interest rates.
我们刚刚看到这段来自鲍威尔的声明,他基本上说美国的国债增长速度远超经济增速,是不可持续的。
And we just had this clip, this statement out from Powell, basically saying that The United States national debt is growing substantially faster than the economy and is not sustainable.
那么这就引出了一个问题:美国能否偿还自己的债务?
And so that goes into can The United States service its own debt?
因此,伊朗通过关闭霍尔木兹海峡向美国施加的成本,就是我们无法偿还债务。
And so the cost that Iran knows and is posting to America through the closing the Hormuz Strait Of Hormuz is that we can't pay our debt.
我其实觉得美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的这段话相当有意思。
I actually thought this clip from Fed chair Jerome Powell was actually pretty interesting.
我们来看一下这段视频。
Let's go ahead and watch it.
很明显,我们的债务增长得快得多。
What's clear is that our debt is growing much faster.
联邦政府债务的增长速度远超我们的经济,这一比例正在上升。
The federal government debt is growing substantially faster than our economy, and that ratio is going up.
从长远来看,这正是不可持续的定义。
And, you know, in the long run, that's kind of the definition of unsustainable.
债务的水平本身并不是不可持续的,但其发展趋势是不可持续的。
The level of the debt is not unsustainable, but the path is not sustainable.
因此,我们真正重要的是回到正轨,我们不必偿还债务,只需要实现基本财政平衡,并让经济真正开始更快地增长。
And so it's it's really important that we get back to, we don't have to pay the debt down, we just need to to to have, you know, primary balance and and begin to have the economy actually growing better, growing, more quickly than the economy.
如果我们不尽快采取行动,结局不会好。
It will it will not end well if we don't do something fairly soon.
这当然不是美联储的职责,我通常只关注这些高层次的观点,而这些观点几乎都被所有人忽视了。
This is not the Fed's job, of course, and I pretty much limit myself to those high level points, which which essentially everyone ignores.
他只关注那些人人都忽视的观点。
He limits himself to those points that everyone ignores.
如果我们不尽快采取行动,结果不会好。
It will not end well if we don't do something fairly soon.
他不能说得更多,但他基本上是在指责赤字。
He can't say more, but he's basically blaming deficits.
他把责任归咎于财政问题。
He's blaming fiscal on this.
是的。
Yeah.
还有联邦政府过度支出的问题。
And your general overspending coming out of the federal government.
对。
Yeah.
所以,所有这些都说明,这场战争不可能长期持续下去。
So all of this is to say that there's a lot of evidence for why this war can't sustain itself over a long period of time.
我认为昨晚特朗普的演讲是这样的:我还有三个星期。
I think the speech that we got from Trump last night is like, I've got I've got three more weeks.
我还剩三个
I've got three
星期,再这样下去就会真正受创了。
more weeks before this really hurts.
你觉得这是他在承认,我可能只剩下三个星期了吗?
You think that's him acknowledging I have maybe three more weeks?
我认为他,虽然不是在那场演讲中明确说,但他心里是清楚的。
I think he, not maybe not in that speech, but I think he knows that.
他知道他不可能永远这样下去。
He knows he doesn't He have knows knows that forever.
他 probably 也看过这些数据。
He's probably seen these sorts of stats too.
这是来自内特·西尔弗的数据,显示的是特朗普的支持率。
This is from Nate Silver, which is Trump's approval rating.
它刚刚首次跌破40%,你可以看到特朗普的支持率自从实施解放性关税以来,以及诸如政府停摆、蕾妮·古德遇害、伊朗战争爆发等其他关键事件后,一直呈稳定下滑趋势,而在中期选举年,这可不是什么好兆头。
It just fell below 40% for the first time, and you could see Trump's numbers on a trend down from the liberation tariffs, and, you know, some of these other milestones, the government shutdown, Renee Good killed, the Iran war starts, and it's been on a steady trajectory down, which is not great when you're in a midterm year.
这在选举概率上也有所体现。
And this is showing up in probabilities for the election.
所以,从大约十一月开始,随着特朗普的受欢迎程度下降,这种趋势一直在稳步上升。
So ever since, let's say, well, ever since November, but there's been a steady trickle up as Trump favorability goes down.
民主党在2026年赢得众议院的几率正在上升。
The odds that the Democrats will win the House in 2026 are are going up.
目前在POLYMARKET上,这一概率为86%。
On POLYMARKET right now, that's 86%.
参议院
The Senate
在400万美元的交易量上,这不算特别高,但绝对也不低。
On $4,000,000 of volume, which isn't super high, but definitely not low either.
是的。
Yeah.
而参议院的局势则更加难以预料。
And the Senate is more up for grabs.
现在大约是五五开,存在一些政治和经济制约因素,这些都被纳入了考量。
It's about fiftyfifty right So there's some political constraints, there's some economic constraints, and all of this is getting factored in.
但到目前为止,我认为市场还没有真正感受到冲击。
But so far, I don't think we've really felt the shock in the markets.
我的意思是,加密货币价格确实在下跌,但除此之外,我觉得纳斯达克并没有受到太大影响,是的。
I mean, crypto prices is down and that aside, but don't think the Nasdaq has gotten hit Yeah.
有些人曾认为可能会这样,而且可能很快就会发生。
To the degree that that some have thought it might, and it may still soon.
是的。
Yeah.
特朗普实际上明确提到了这一点,他在昨晚的演讲中多次明确表示:我们不需要霍尔木兹海峡。
That was actually a a explicit point that Trump was making, was like, he explicitly said a number of times in his speech last night, is like, we don't need the Strait Of Hormuz.
我们有自己的石油。
We've got our own oil.
我们有WTI。
We've got WTI.
我们有西德克萨斯国际原油。
We got West Texas International.
然后他还说了那一套话。
And then he also did the whole thing.
他说,欧洲,这是你们的问题。
Was like, Europe, like, this is your guys' problem.
你们得站出来解决。
You guys need to step in here.
但他明确表示,我们有自己的石油供应。
So but he explicitly says, like, we've got our supply of oil.
我们的经济会没事的。
Like, our economy is gonna be fine.
我们在全球股市指数中也看到了这一点。
And we also do see that in the global stock market indices.
国内美国市场表现远优于国际市场的表现。
It's like the the domestic United States markets are doing much better than the international markets.
那我们今天就先到这里。
So let's leave it there for the week.
接下来,我们得聊聊量子计算。
Coming up next, we gotta talk about Quantum.
量子计算是要来摧毁比特币、以太坊和我们所有的加密货币吗,还是这只是恐慌情绪,戴维?
Is Quantum getting ready to come in and just wreck Bitcoin, Ethereum, all our cryptocurrencies, or is this just FUD, David?
我们是不是有点过度紧张了?
Are we being alarmist here?
我们得深入看看本周谷歌和另一家公司发布的量子计算论文。
We gotta get into the Quantum papers, the research released this week by Google and one other.
要讨论的细节太多了。
There's so many details to cover.
我们回来后再聊这个。
We'll talk about that when we come back.
如果你已经持有SOL,这里有一件事你可能需要注意。
If you're already holding SOL, here's something you may want to pay attention to.
Galaxy One 刚刚推出了 Solana 质押服务,您在 2026 年 12 月 31 日之前质押 SOL 可获得高达 6.5% 的可变质押收益,且平台不收取任何佣金费用。
Galaxy One just launched Solana staking, and you can earn up to an estimated 6.5% in variable staking rewards on your SOL with no platform commission fee charged throughout 12/31/2026.
尽管许多其他平台对质押收益收取高达 35% 的佣金,Galaxy One 却在 12 月 31 日前提供 0% 平台佣金。
While many other platforms charge up to 35% commission fees on staking rewards, Galaxy One offers you 0% platform commission through December 31.
可能还会产生其他费用。
Other fees may apply.
您应查看相关条款。
You should see the terms.
该服务由 Galaxy Digital 自有的验证节点基础设施提供支持,这是全球最大的 Solana 验证节点运营之一,现已直接向个人投资者开放。
This is powered by Galaxy Digital's own validator infrastructure, one of the largest Solana validator operations in the world, and now available to individual investors directly within the Galaxy One platform.
一旦完成质押,收益将自动累积并复利计算。
Once you stake, rewards accrue and compound automatically.
无需主动管理。
No active management needed.
您可以在一个地方追踪所有信息,包括余额、收益以及通过 TaxBit 提供的税务报告。
You can track everything in one place, including balances, rewards, and tax reporting through TaxBit.
开始使用非常简单。
Getting started is straightforward.
你可以在应用内直接购买SOL,或者将SOL转入。
You can buy SOL directly in the app or transfer it in.
如果你想让你的SOL产生收益,现在就可以在Galaxy One上开始质押。
If you want to put your SOL to work, you can now start staking on Galaxy One today.
点击节目说明中的链接了解更多信息并开始使用,这不是投资建议。
Click the link in the show notes to learn more and get started, not investment advice.
Bankless不仅仅是一个名字。
Bankless isn't just a name.
它是一种真正的信念:你不需要获得机构的许可才能使用自己的资金。
It's a genuine belief that you shouldn't need permission from an institution to use your money.
METAMASK自以太坊诞生之初就已存在,它们拥有与我们相同的基因。
METAMASK has been around since the beginning of Ethereum, and they carry the same DNA we do.
METAMASK是我第一个钱包。
METAMASK was my first wallet.
而且,如果你最近没打开过这个应用,让我告诉你,他们一直在推出新功能,打造一款真正取代你的银行和交易所的单一应用。
And, well, if you haven't opened up the app recently, let me tell you, they've been shipping, creating the one app to finally replace your bank and exchange.
你可以在 METAMASK 内直接交易几乎所有的资产。
You can trade just about everything right from within METAMASK.
通过 HyperLiquid 获得杠杆收益,通过 PolyMarket 参与预测市场,持有如英伟达这样的代币化股票,还能无 Gas 费地跨网络交换代币,甚至可以用你的 METAMASK 卡在世界各地的真实商户消费你的加密货币。
Leverage perks via hyperliquid, prediction markets through POLYMARKET, tokenized stocks like Nvidia, and you can swap tokens gaslessly and across networks, and even spend your crypto with your METAMASK card at real merchants all around the world.
这比传统金融机构的服务更好,而且来自一个自我托管的钱包。
It's better than institution services, but from a self custodial wallet.
这正是我们多年来一直在谈论的事情。
And this is what we've been talking about for years.
一种开放的、正在发生的金融体系。
Money that's open and is happening.
所以请查看下方链接,了解一下 METAMASK 交易期货功能。
So give METAMASK Trading Futures a look at the link below.
周一,两家量子计算公司同时发布了一颗‘量子炸弹’。
So on Monday, a quantum bomb was dropped by two different Quantum bomb.
一个来自谷歌,另一个来自一群学者。
Out of Google and another out of a bunch of academics.
我们把后者称为《Oratomic》论文。
We'll call it the second one the Oratomic paper.
瑞安,我知道你一直关注这个。
Ryan, I know you were paying attention to this.
你如何总结这些论文的重要性?
How would you summarize the significance of these papers?
天啊,极其重要。
Oh my god, incredibly significant.
我认为称它为量子炸弹可能是对的。
I think calling it a Q bomb, a quantum bomb is probably right.
这是最大的我
It's the biggest I
我只是随口说的。
just made that up on the fly.
加密领域里的每个人都在讨论这件事。
Well, everyone in crypto was talking about it.
主流媒体也在谈论它。
Mainstream news was talking about it.
我们有很多外部评论员对此发表了看法。
We have a lot of commentators outside who have have weighed in.
这基本上是本周的头条新闻,而且当之无愧。
It was basically the news of the week, and and deservedly so.
我想我们应该从贾斯汀·德雷克的一些评论开始。
I think we should start here with Justin Drake, some of his comments.
他说,今天,当这些论文发布时,是量子计算和密码学的一个重要时刻。
He said, today, he's talking about when these papers dropped, today is a momentous day for quantum computing and cryptography.
两篇突破性的论文刚刚发布。
Two breakthrough papers just landed.
这两篇论文都改进了肖尔算法——该算法因能够破解RSA(不是瑞安·西恩·亚当斯,是另一个RSA)和椭圆曲线密码学而臭名昭著。
Both papers improve Shore's algorithm, infamous for cracking RSA, not Ryan Sean Adams, the other RSA, and Elliptic Curve Cryptography.
展开剩余字幕(还有 480 条)
这两项成果相互叠加,优化了量子栈的不同层次。
The two results compound, optimizing separate layers of the quantum stack.
他说,这些结果令人震惊。
The results are shocking, he said.
我预计会出现叙事转变,并进一步推动对后量子密码学的研发投入。
I expect a narrative shift and further R and D boost towards post quantum cryptography.
他继续表示,他对‘量子日’(即某台量子计算机能够破解比特币或以太坊加密算法的那一天)的信心下降,认为到2032年发生的概率仅为10%,这对贾斯汀·德雷克而言更是如此。
He goes on to say his confidence in Q Day, which is the day at which some quantum computer can crack Bitcoin or Ethereum cryptography, 10% chance by 2032, and and dropping for Justin Drake.
因此,谷歌在这篇论文中强烈建议整个加密行业引起重视,不仅要关注,更要于2029年前升级至后量子加密技术。
So Google, in this paper, is strongly recommending that all of crypto take notice and beyond notice, and to upgrade to post quantum by the year 2029.
事实上,谷歌内部正在这么做。
In fact, that's what Google is doing internally.
等等。
Wait.
所以谷歌向加密行业作出了明确表态。
So Google made an explicit statement towards the crypto industry.
大卫,这整篇论文都是专门写给加密行业的。
This whole paper, David, was specifically written for the crypto industry.
他们就好像在说:嘿,加密圈的兄弟们,这篇是专门写给你们的?
They're like, hey, crypto bros, this one's for you guys?
完全是这样。
Completely.
而且这些知识非常有用
And the knowledge Nice
得让整个行业都听进去。
to be heard.
对,能被行业听见当然好。
Yeah, is nice to be heard.
没错,这话毕竟是谷歌说的,对吧?
It was nice, like this is coming from Google, right?
你本来不会想到他们对加密货币的了解能有这么深,但这篇论文啊,足足有三四十页长。
And you don't expect them to be as cryptocurrency literate as they were indeed, but this paper, mean, is 30 to 40 pages.
你们可以自己仔细阅读,也可以用你们的AI机器人分析一下,但这份文件是专门针对加密货币的。
You guys can go through it, run it through your AI bots if you'd like, but it is directed towards cryptocurrency.
他们详细探讨了比特币、以太坊以及其他一系列区块链的具体问题和挑战。
They go through specific and problems for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a list of other chains as well.
那么真正的创新点是什么?
So what was the actual innovation?
是的,我
Yeah, I
认为这一点很重要。
think that's important.
尼·卡特是这样阐述的:你知道吗,谷歌,我们几周前报道过,他们确实推迟了内部的量子计算时间表。
And the way Nic Carter frames this is, know, Google, I think we reported a couple weeks ago, did drop their internal quantum deadlines.
他们希望到2029年实现完全抗量子计算,这似乎突然就出现了。
They want to be fully quantum resistance by 2029, and that seemed to come out of nowhere.
问题是,谷歌到底看到了什么?
And the question is, like, what did Google see?
为什么?因为他们之前说NIST和其他政府机构的目标是2032年、2035年,看起来我们还有更多时间,但谷歌却突然说:嘿,朋友们,我们打算在2029年完成。
Why did Because they drop these NIST and other government agencies were talking 2032, by 2035, it seemed like we had more time, then Google's like, hey, guys, like, we're doing it by 2029.
那他们看到了什么?
So what did they see?
这就是他们看到的。
This is what they saw.
谷歌的论文提到,Shor算法有了20倍的改进,足以破解比特币和以太坊的加密机制。
The Google paper is talking about a reduction of 20 x, an improvement in Shor's algorithm that could break Bitcoin and Ethereum's cryptography.
我说的20倍改进,指的是实际破解ECDSA(比特币和以太坊所使用的签名方案)所需的物理量子比特数量。
When I say a 20 x improvement, I'm talking about the number of physical cubits required to actually break ECDSA, which is the signature scheme for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
以前量子比特意味着硬件需求。
Used to be cubits is like, this is the hardware requirement.
没错。
Exactly.
不过当我们建造量子计算机时,我总觉得量子比特就像CPU的浮点运算能力一样。
So when we're building a quantum computer, though, I kind of think of q qbits as like, just like the the flop capacity of a CPU.
这台计算机有多强大?
Like, how powerful is this computer?
没错。
Exactly.
所以如果我们减少了量子比特的数量,这意味着计算机虽然没那么强大,却能完成更强大的任务。
And so if we have a reduction in in qbits, it means the computer is simply not as powerful, but can do more powerful things.
没错。
That's right.
以前估计需要数千万个量子比特才能实现这一目标,但他们刚刚发布了对肖尔算法的改进,现在只需要50万个物理量子比特。
And previous estimates where it would take, you know, tens of millions of qubits to do this, well, they just released an improvement to the algorithm, to Shore's algorithm, that now make it take only 500,000 physical qubits.
因此,如果他们拥有合适的硬件——也就是这50万个物理量子比特,运行时间大约只需九分钟,就能攻击比特币或以太坊并窃取密钥。
And so in a run time of about nine minutes, if they had the appropriate hardware, again, those 500,000 physical qubits, it would only take nine minutes for them to go attack Bitcoin or Ethereum, and yoink the keys.
而且,这不仅仅局限于从比特币、以太坊或其他链上窃取量子脆弱资产,它还能实现双重支付攻击,让他们在交易确认前拦截交易。
And also, this is not just limited to, you know, grabbing quantum vulnerable assets from Bitcoin or Ethereum or other chains, it also enables on spend attacks, so they can intercept transactions before they confirm.
在比特币这样的区块时间内,九分钟内他们就能拦截一笔交易。
Within the block time of something like Bitcoin, within nine minutes, they could intercept a transaction.
比如说,我从自己这里向你发送比特币,一台拥有这种硬件规模的量子计算机就能截获并窃取这笔交易。
Say, I send Bitcoin from myself to you, a quantum computer with this amount of hardware could go and yoink and intercept that that transaction.
这基本上就摧毁了比特币。
So this breaks Bitcoin, basically.
是的。
Mhmm.
而且还会摧毁其他所有东西。
And also breaks everything else.
如果具备这种级别的硬件,它会摧毁以太坊,摧毁加密货币中的所有东西。
It breaks Ethereum, it breaks everything in crypto, if we had that level of hardware.
对,如果我们能实现这种硬件水平的话。
Right, if we had the level of hardware.
据我理解,目前仍不确定的是,我们是否真的能达到这种硬件水平。
Now, to my understanding, that is still the unknown thing, is whether we can actually get to that level of hardware.
如今,我们现有的最先进机器大约有1000到1500个物理量子比特,能产生50个逻辑量子比特。
Right now, we have the the best machines that we have today are like 1,000 to 1,500 physical qubits, and that creates 50 logical qubits.
这些都是深层次的量子科学内容。
These are all these are all deep quantum scientific stuff.
没错。
That's right.
但关键还是,我们是否能实现有意义的逻辑量子比特数量,这仍然是个未知数。
But and so like, but it's still an unknown if we can get to a meaningful level of logical qubits.
我们现在有50个,但还需要多得多。
Like That's we're at 50, we need a lot more.
但这篇论文的创新之处在于,它只是在软件和算法上做了一个改进。
But what this innovation does from this paper is it's just simply an improvement in the software, an improvement in the algorithm.
这意味着我们其实不需要那么多量子比特了。
Means we don't actually need a whole lot more qubits.
我们当然还是需要多得多的量子比特,但由于有了更高效的软件,所需的数量已经大大减少了。
We definitely need way more qubits, but the amount of qubits that we need is now down because we have a more efficient piece of software.
完全正确。
That's exactly right.
关键在于,这是一个算法上的改进,它减少了攻击这些系统所需的硬件数量。
That's the thing to underline is this is an algorithm improvement that reduces the amount of hardware required to go attack these systems.
因此,这仍然是一个工程问题。
And so it is still an engineering problem.
实际上,我一直想问这个问题:这到底是个多大的工程难题?
Actually, the, you know, like, I was wanting to ask this question of like, how big of an engineering problem is it?
这像核聚变那样吗?核聚变是个工程问题,但我们根本不知道怎么解决它。
Is this like, is this something like fusion, which, like, that's an engineering problem, but we have no idea how to solve fusion.
它总是,像十五年后才能实现那样。
It's always, like, fifteen years away
或者总是停留在理论,从不付诸实践。
or always theory, never practice.
是的。
Yeah.
还是说,量子计算在量子比特方面仍然是理论,而非实践?
Or is it understand it, quantum is still theory, not practice when it comes to qubits.
我们确实有一些量子比特。
We do have some qubits.
我们确实有,目前已经有50个逻辑量子比特,问题是能否将它们扩展?
We do, we have 50 logical qubits right now, and the question is can we scale that up?
我认为这不像核聚变那样,还需要大量研究。
And I don't think, it's not like fusion, which is just like, oh, there's a lot more research to do.
这纯粹是一个工程问题。
This is purely an engineering problem.
那么,我们能否解决这个工程问题?
Now, can we resolve the engineering problem?
我不知道,但看起来它更像AI的扩展——你只需要投入更多硬件,把它扩大就行,而不是像核聚变那样。
I don't know, but it seems more like AI scaling, which is you just throw more hardware at it, you just scale it up than it does fusion.
这几乎就像一个类比:在20世纪60年代,晶体管已经问世了。
It's almost like an analog is, in the 1960s, transistors worked, they were discovered.
当时的问题是,我们能否在单个芯片上集成数百万个晶体管?
The question at that time was, could we pack millions on one chip?
这与当前的工程问题非常相似。
That was That's the engineering similar to what the engineering problem is now.
因此,他们的结论,谷歌的结论是,我们敦促所有脆弱的加密货币社区——也就是我们所有人——立即迁移到抗量子计算的密码学。
So, their conclusion, Google's conclusion, we urge all vulnerable cryptocurrency communities, which is all of us, to join the migration to post quantum computing, cryptography without delay.
虽然没有提到,但另一篇论文,即Oratomic论文,实际上采用了不同的架构和不同的攻击方式。
Didn't mention, but the other paper, the Oratomic paper, it's actually, they have a different architecture and a different style attack.
谷歌提到的是快速攻击,而另一种较慢的攻击则需要数天时间才能破解一个密钥。
There's a fast attack, which Google was talking about, and a slower attack that would take days to go attack a key.
但在他们的方法中,通过较慢的攻击方式,他们将Shor算法提升了50倍。
But with the slower attack in their message, in their method, they improved Shore's algorithm by 50 x.
因此,在这种配置下,仅需10,000个可重构原子量子比特即可实施攻击。
So in this configuration, it would only take 10,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits to attack.
因此存在多种攻击途径,在某种程度上,Oratomic是……
So there's multiple attack vectors, and at some level the Oratomic Yeah.
而Oratomic的论文甚至更令人担忧。
And the Oratomic paper was even more concerning.
所以看到闪红灯,你可能会这么想。
So flashing red lights, you'd think.
是的。
Yeah.
我认为这对那些没有解决这个问题的生态系统来说,确实是一个明显的警示信号。
I think it's definitely a flashing red light for ecosystems that aren't addressing the problem.
但瑞安,我们在加密领域都是聪明、理性的对吧?
But Ryan, we're smart logical people in crypto, right?
我们正在解决这个问题,是
We're addressing the problem, are
不是吗?
we not?
我不太确定。
I'm not so sure.
我的意思是,我们来谈谈比特币。
I mean, so let's talk about Bitcoin.
对吧?
Right?
在贾斯汀·德雷克那期节目中,我们讨论过一个重大问题,也多次提到:即使比特币能够采用后量子签名,这也会从性能角度显著拖慢系统,这本身就是一个问题。
One of the big problems we talked about in the Justin Drake episode, we've mentioned a lot, is even if Bitcoin is able to adopt post quantum signatures, which would significantly slow things down from a performance perspective, and that's a problem in and of itself.
事实上,这篇论文提到,这种程度的变更可能会像导致比特币现金分叉的那次改动一样。
In fact, the paper talks about this could be like a, the level of change that led to the hard fork that created Bitcoin Cash, right?
因为如果你用新算法降低了性能,那你又成了什么?
Because if you drop performance with new algorithms, then what are you?
你是大区块派还是小区块派?
Are you a big blocker or a small blocker?
关于这个问题,可能有两种立场。
There could be two sides to that debate.
是的,我们再来梳理一下:量子签名,也就是我们需要升级到的后量子密码学签名,体积更大、更重、占用更多空间、需要更多计算资源,速度也更慢。
Yeah, so just to trace over that again, quantum signatures, post quantum cryptographic signatures, the ones that we need to upgrade to are beefier, they're heavier, they take more space, require more compute, they're slower.
而比特币已经经历过区块大小之争,最终小区块派胜出,这也没问题。
And Bitcoin has already gone through its block size wars and these small blockers won, which is fine.
也许当时做出这个选择是正确的。
Maybe that was the right choice for then.
我们现在必须考虑的是,如果比特币转向后量子加密,交易规模更大,比特币的TPS可能会从每秒3笔交易下降到每秒0.3笔。
We have to what potentially happens now is that with even bigger transactions, Bitcoin TPS is going to go from three transactions per second to if they go if it makes the transition to post quantum at point three transactions per second.
这简直是微区块了,老兄。
And and do we That's micro blocks, man.
我们真的还需要再争论一次大区块和小区块的战争吗?
Do we need to even hash out the big block small block war again?
没错。
Right.
也许不用,因为实际上你根本不需要在比特币上进行交易。
Maybe not because, yeah, I could say it just like, you just actually just don't need to transact on Bitcoin.
你只需要持有比特币就行了。
You just need to hold the Bitcoins.
也许这还能解决比特币每秒0.3笔交易的手续费预算问题。
And maybe this also solves the Bitcoin fee budget with point three transactions specific.
哦,是的。
Oh, yes.
够了。
Enough.
有人会支持小区块一方的观点
Think there's an argument for the small block If side of
唯一的问题就是这个。
only that was the only problem.
另一个我认为的主要问题,我不知道,所有问题都很关键,那就是有90万枚比特币,占总供应量的三分之一,容易受到量子攻击。
The other, I think, the main problem as well, I don't know, they're all main problems, is you've got 900,000.0 Bitcoin, a third of all supply, that is vulnerable to quantum attack.
其中一部分可以迁移,但大约230万枚比特币,占比特币总供应量的10%到15%,是中本聪的密钥、丢失的密钥以及从未被使用过的密钥,据信它们
Now some of that can be migrated, except for the 2,300,000.0 or so, which is 10 to 15% of all Bitcoin supply, that is Satoshi's keys, and lost keys and keys that haven't been touched and it's assumed to
这些代币将永远不会被转移,因为所有者已经去世或密钥丢失。
assumed tokens that will never move because the owner is gone or dead or the private keys are lost.
因此,它们唯一会被转移的方式,就是这些钱包最终被即将到来的量子计算机攻破,届时拥有这台量子计算机的人就能获取230万枚比特币,占总量2100万枚的份额。是的。
And so the only way that they will move is that these wallets are going to get exploited eventually by the incoming quantum computer, and then whoever has that quantum computer gains access to 2,300,000 out of the 21,000,000 Yeah.
中本聪持有的那些比特币,是量子计算机肯定能窃取到的确定数量的比特币。
Satoshi coins, and that is the guaranteed number that is available to the quantum computer.
然后在比特币总量2100万枚中,还有690万枚同样存在安全隐患,需要完成迁移,而且我们无法确定其中有多少也属于丢失的比特币——至少有一部分是找不回来了。
And then there's the 6,900,000, again, of the 21,000,000 total Bitcoins, that is Bitcoin that is vulnerable, that needs to be migrated, and we do not know to what degree that those coins are also lost at least some.
那你觉得该怎么
And so what do you
处理这些长期静止的币呢?
do with the dormant coins?
实际上,谷歌也在他们的论文中深入研究过这个问题。
Actually, Google delved into this as well in their paper.
他们的说法是,目前你们有四个可选方案——
They're like, there's four options you guys have that
是我们谷歌研究得出的。
we see.
我们谷歌的结论是,
We are Google,
我们看到了四种选择。
and we see four options.
我应该说,这篇论文还有其他合著者,其中一位是贾斯汀·德雷克,有趣的是,他是以太坊基金会的贾斯汀·德雷克。
I should say, there were other co authors on this paper, one of which was Justin Drake, interestingly enough, so the Ethereum Foundation, Justin Drake named.
但无论如何,他们提出的四个选项是:你可以什么都不做,任由量子攻击者拿走这些币。
But anyway, they said the four options are, you could do nothing, just let the quantum attackers take them.
你可以销毁,可以把整个休眠的供应量找出来,达成共识哪些币是休眠的,然后
You could burn, you could take this whole dormant supply, figure out what, you know, get consensus on what coins are dormant, and
全部销毁。
burn them all.
这需要硬分叉吗?
Would require a hard fork?
是的。
Yes.
你可以采用沙漏方案,这是一种他们开发的限制休眠币支出速度的机制,以减缓流失;或者,这也是贾斯汀·德雷克的一个想法,他们称之为“不良侧链”:你建立一条锚定的侧链,把所有休眠币放到上面,然后所有者需要提交所有权证明,如果证明正确,就可以把币恢复给他们。
You could do an hourglass approach, which is a scheme that they developed to limit the rate that dormant coins could be spent, so you slow the drain, or, this was also a Justin Drake idea, they called it bad side chain, where you'd have this pegged side chain, you'd put all the dormant coins on that, and then owners would have to submit some ownership proofs, and if they submitted the right proof, they could get their coins restored to them.
我明白了。
I see.
所以这相当于烧毁,但为那些确实拥有私钥的人留了一个出口?
So that is kind of that is the burn, but with a a escape hatch for people who actually do have the private key?
没错。
That's right.
对。
Yeah.
你看,我喜欢这个方案。
See, I like that one.
我确实有点喜欢这个方案。
I would do I do kinda like that one.
但我确实有点喜欢这个方案。
But I do kinda like that one.
不过这个方案需要最多的协调,而这正是比特币社区面临的最大挑战。
Don't get that It requires the most coordination, which is the biggest challenge for Bitcoiners.
是的。
Yes.
现在,CZ至少在这一早期阶段已经发表了看法,他说了这一点:第一,别慌。
And now, CZ has has weighed in, at least at this early phase, and he said this about, you know, he's number one, don't panic.
有些人对量子计算感到恐慌。
Some people are panicking about Quantum.
别对量子计算及其对加密货币的影响感到恐慌。
Don't panic about that and its impact to crypto.
第二,我们该怎么处理中本聪的币?
Number two, what do we do with the Satoshi coins?
如果这些币在一定时间内没有动用,最好将这些地址锁定或实际上销毁,以免被破解它的黑客获得。
Well, if they don't move in a certain period of time, it might be better to lock or effectively burn those addresses so they don't go to the hacker who cracks it.
就是这样。
That's it.
就锁定它们或者销毁它们吧。
Just just lock them or burn them.
我对CZ如此漫不经心的回答感到震惊。
And I was like shocked at how nonchalant answer was from CZ.
这就像直接销毁300万个比特币一样。
It's just like Burn 3,000,000 Bitcoins.
这可是大事,对吧?
That's a big deal, right?
它涉及财产权。
It has property rights.
我以为,这正是比特币存在的原因。
Know, that is the reason that Bitcoin exists, I thought.
是的。
Yeah.
他们也谈到了以太坊,当然。
They also talk about Ethereum, of course.
所以以太坊的简要总结是,其攻击面比比特币大得多。
So the the TLDR for Ethereum is the attack surface is much larger than larger than Bitcoin.
对吧?
Right?
所以这是一个更难解决的问题,因为不
And so it's like a harder problem to solve because not
这不仅是一个更难的工程问题。
only It's harder engineering problem to solve.
是的。
Yes.
你不仅要处理执行、EC、DSA、签名。
You're not just dealing with execution, EC, DSA, signatures.
你还要处理数据可用性、漏洞,比如KZG,嗯。
You've got data availability, vulnerability, so the KZG Mhmm.
你知道,他们做的仪式,那都是有毒废弃物,都是后门。
You know, ceremony that they did, that's all toxic waste, that's all a backdoor.
你还有管理员账户,比如稳定币。
You've got admin accounts, so stablecoins.
一些稳定币的智能合约密钥存在量子暴露的管理员密钥。
Some of the smart contract keys for stablecoins have quantum exposed admin keys.
因此,以太坊上有很多东西需要升级,而比特币则不需要。
So there's all sorts of things that you have to upgrade on Ethereum that you don't have to upgrade to Bitcoin.
所以我不确定这是否是一个数量级更大的任务。
So I don't know if it's an order of magnitude of a larger task.
我觉得没那么大,但可能需要两到三倍的工作量。
I don't think it's quite that much, but it's it's it's probably like a two or three x effort.
你指的是工程上的工作量吗?
Engineering effort, you mean?
以及所需的工作量
Effort and just like the work required
去做。
to do.
所需的工作量,是的。
The work required, yes.
从质的角度来看,比特币存在协调和共识问题。
Qualitatively, Bitcoin has a coordination and a consensus problem.
是的。
Yes.
而以太坊,像这类问题,比如某些稳定币的管理员密钥暴露在量子计算威胁下,涉及现实世界资产高达两千亿美元。
And Ethereum, some of these things like admin vulnerability for something, example, 200 billions in stablecoins in real world assets controlled by quantum exposed admin keys.
管理员只需执行该操作即可。
Well, admins just need to do the thing.
没错。
That's right.
还有许多类似的例子,但本质上就是:你们是这个智能合约的管理员,你们需要升级它。
And there's a lot of those examples, but it's a matter of just like, hey, you guys are the admin over this smart contract, you guys need to upgrade.
他们会的,因为有两千亿美元的利益悬而未决。
And I mean, they will because they have $200,000,000,000 at stake.
所以,尽管这是一个工程挑战,但并不像比特币那样构成真正的协调挑战。
And so while that's an engineering challenge, it's not really a coordination challenge in the same way that Bitcoin is.
所以是的,总的来说,以太坊还有很多工作要做,就像你说的,可能需要两到三倍的努力。
And so yes, broadly there's more to do on Ethereum, like you said, maybe two to three x more to do.
甚至可能高达五倍。
Maybe even, I could go up to five x.
可以
Could
你吗?
you?
但这是本质上不同的问题,因为协调方面的挑战更少
But it's qualitatively a different kind of problem, because there's less of a coordination and
你不需要处理一个大问题,那就是财产权。
an And agreement you don't have to deal with a big thing, is property rights.
你
Do you
要处理占供应量10%到15%的部分吗?
do with 10 to 15% of the supply?
对于比特币来说,根本没有一个好的解决方案。
Like, there's no good answer for for Bitcoin there.
实际上,谷歌也做出了同样的评估。
And, actually, the Google makes the same assessment.
他们说,以太坊的整体量子攻击面比比特币更广。
They said Ethereum has a broader overall quantum attack surface than Bitcoin.
然而,这得益于比以太坊基金会更强的社区领导力。
However, this is compensated by stronger community leadership than Ethereum Foundation.
以太坊已经有了这方面的路线图。
Ethereum already has a roadmap for this.
是的。
Yeah.
比特币那边就像是在问:量子计算机真的存在吗?
Bitcoin is kinda like, are quantum are quantum computers real?
它们真的存在吗?
Are they real?
比特币仍然处于‘可能不真实’的阶段。
Bitcoin is still in the Probably not real.
上升阶段。
Up phase.
是的。
Yes.
他们就像那些比特币狂热者、目光如炬的马克斯主义者一样,说:闭嘴。
They're like they're like, the the Bitcoin zealots, the laser eyed Maxis are like, shut up.
这根本不是问题。
This is not a problem.
对。
Yeah.
我听不见你说话。
I can't hear you.
blah blah
Blah blah
blah blah.
blah blah.
是的。
Yeah.
我们稍后会给你一些关于这些观点的分析。
We'll give you some, like, takes on on on the takes later.
但他们还提到了一些其他的区块链。
But they also mentioned some other chains.
所以Zcash,他们说它很可能成为第一个目标。
So Zcash, they said it was likely a first target.
他们提到了可用的隐蔽通胀攻击。
They Oh, mentioned stealth inflation attacks that are available.
还有门罗币。
Also, Monero.
如果你使用门罗币,所有私密交易都可能在量子计算机的作用下被公开。
If you're on Monero, all of the private transactions could be yielded public like this with a quantum computer.
是的。
Yes.
你是认真的吗?
Are you serious?
是的。
Yes.
是的,大卫。
Yes, David.
所以你在窄链上的所有不法交易。
So all of your nefarious transactions on the narrow.
每次选举旅行,窄链都会被曝光。
Every every election trip the narrow is going to be revealed.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
那现在链条已经为这个做好准备了。
That's Now gonna be some chains are ready for this.
Algorand 已经准备好了。
Algorand is ready.
它们已经准备好了。
They're already ready.
不错。
Nice.
就是这样。
There you go.
也许这对 Algorand 是个利好。
Maybe that's a a boon for Algorand.
Solana 他们说它和以太坊类似,但你知道,它们的机构惯性更小。
Solana, they said it's it's similar to Ethereum, but, you know, they they have less institutional inertia.
它们能够实现它。
They'll be able to implement it.
他们发布了证据,证明20倍的算法——肖尔算法的改进——是真实存在的,但并没有公开算法本身以及他们的实现方法,因为他们认为这太危险了。
They released proof that the 20 x algorithm, Shor's algorithm improvement was like a real thing, not by publishing the algorithm itself and how they did it, because they supposed to be too dangerous.
是的。
Yeah.
因为他们只是在泄露秘密。
Because they were just giving the secrets.
对。
Yeah.
他们证明了自己能够做到,但并没有将这些秘密公开给任何人。
They they proved that they could do it, but they're not releasing those secrets to anyone else.
因此,他们使用了简洁的零知识证明来证实这一点。
So, they used a succinct ZK proof in order to prove that.
所以,他们没有告诉你具体是怎么做的,但他们确实证明了自己拥有一个对肖尔算法改进20倍的算法,用于破解这类问题。
So, they didn't tell you how they did it, but they did prove that they do have a 20 x improved algorithm for for shores for cracking this type of thing.
太疯狂了。
Crazy.
必须知道,中国那边肯定会有人去搞到这个秘密。
Gotta know that China is like, somebody go get that secret.
天哪,这真是个很好的观点,对吧?
Oh my god, that's a great point, right?
而且我认为,我们已经进入了不会再公开发布这类技术的时代。
And I I think it's also a point that we are beyond the days where this is going to be released publicly.
所以,量子技术本质上是一种军事武器,对吧?
So there's like, quantum is a military weapon, isn't it?
如果谷歌以这种半公开的方式发布,意味着他们展示了能力,却不透露具体方法,那么各国政府现在对此有何应对?
So if Google is releasing this quasi publicly, they're saying we have the capability, but they're not showing you how, what are nation states actors doing about this, like today?
因为别忘了,这项技术能让它们 spying 于邻国。
Because remember, this technology allows them to spy on their neighbors.
嗯。
Mhmm.
这是一项军用级别的技术。
Like it's a military grade technology.
是的。
So Yeah.
这正是可怕的地方。
That is kind of the scary thing.
尼克·卡特提醒我们,你不会得到任何警告。
Nic Carter reminds us, you will not get a warning.
你正在收到的,就是警告本身。
The warning is what you are getting now.
这就是你的警告。
This is your warning.
一旦逻辑量子比特开始真正规模化,你将从破解5位迅速跃升到破解256位。
Once logical qubits start to meaningfully scale, you will go from cracking five bits to 256 bits very quickly.
嗯。
Mhmm.
所以,谷歌提前告知我们,算是做好事了。
So, Google's kinda being the good guy by telling us in advance.
可能是对的。
Might Right.
这并不一定是预期的情况。
That's not the expectation necessarily.
有一天你可能会醒来,发现攻击已经开始了。
One day you could wake up and the attacks are starting.
是的,我认为这就是关键时刻,这是一记警告。
Yeah, I think that is the mic drop moment is that this is the warning shot.
这是向我们开的第一枪。
This is the shot across the bow.
而且我们可能不会再收到更多的警告了。
And we probably won't be getting any more.
好吧,现在我会让这稍微缓和一点
Alright, now I'll dampen that a
。
little bit.
关于加密货币有一些观点。
There's some takes around crypto.
这个观点来自Solana的创始人Anatoli。
This one's from Anatoli, founder of of Solana.
他提醒我们,我们仍然不知道如何制造和增加量子比特。
He he did remind us that we still have no clue on how to manufacture and add qubits.
因此,从五个逻辑量子比特扩展到1400个量子比特,从工程角度来看,我们实际上还不知道如何实现。
So this getting from five logical qubits to 1,400 qubits, we don't actually know how to do that from an engineering perspective.
我们还不知道这是否可扩展。
We don't know if that scales yet.
也许在现实世界中存在某种不可能性,使得这一目标变得极其困难,或者需要数十年才能实现。
And it could be the case that there's some impossibility in the world of meat space that just makes that very, very difficult, or decades out.
从技术上讲是正确的,但不能完全依赖这一点。
Technically true, something to depend on.
我有点同意你的看法。
Kind of agree with you.
但也许你就像一个过度恐慌的大卫,因为还有另一种观点。
But maybe you're being a panicking David, because this is the other take.
这是前比特币开发者的一种看法,我们本周也联系了你,并且问了迈克尔·塞拉关于谷歌量子论文的问题。
It was a take from a former Bitcoin developer, which is and we also we talked to you and I talked to Michael Saylor this week, and we asked him about the Google Quantum paper.
我们和迈克尔·塞拉做了一次录音,他持这种观点。
We did a recording with Michael Saylor, and he took this view.
他说,基本上,别理会那些制造恐慌的人。
He said, basically, like, ignore the alarmists.
有很多悲观主义者想让你感到恐惧和不确定,而如果你行动太快,有时候解决办法可能比问题本身更糟糕。
There's a lot of pessimists out there that want you to feel FUD, and if you if you move too fast, sometimes the cure can be worse than the disease.
对吧?
Right?
所以大家都冷静点,别慌,开发者们会找到解决方案的。
So everyone calm down, don't panic, the devs will figure a solution out.
这是乔纳斯·切内利。
This is Jonas Chenelli.
他说,别着急,别被恐慌情绪左右。
He said, don't rush, avoid the FUD.
我认识的比特币开发者都承认量子计算是一个风险。
Bitcoin devs I know, they acknowledge that quantum is a risk.
他们正在研究这个问题。
They're looking at researching it.
也许这个问题永远不会发生,但总之别过度恐慌和惊慌失措。
Maybe it never materializes, but like it's just don't be all alarmist and panicking about it.
对我来说,很难认真对待‘别恐慌’‘别相信恐慌情绪’这种说法,因为这对比特币来说难道不是生存危机吗?
I it's hard for me to take the don't be a panicking don't believe the FUD response seriously, because this is, is this not existential for Bitcoin?
这非常重要。
It's pretty damn important.
是的,确实很重要。
Yeah, it's pretty
重要。
important.
是的,不,这是关乎存亡的问题。
Yeah, no, it's existential.
我们需要都认同一种乐趣,因为这就是我们的行业。
There's like a level of fun that we all need to get on board with, because these are this is our industry here.
所以你说‘别恐慌’,就好像大楼着火了一样。
And so to say, hey, don't panic, is like, the building's on fire.
没错,别恐慌,但得赶紧往出口跑。
Like, sure, don't panic, but like do rush for the exit.
别恐慌,但要做好准备。
Don't panic, but prepare, maybe.
我不是说退出比特币。
And I don't mean exit Bitcoin.
我的意思是,去寻找解决方案。
I mean, just like go to the solution.
对。
Yeah.
我们很紧急。
We it's urgent.
布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗似乎
Brian Armstrong seems to
感受到了这种紧迫性。
feel that urgency.
所以今天早上,他发帖说要亲自花时间处理这件事。
So just this morning, he posted going to start spending time on this personally.
看来我们需要尽早解决这个问题。
Seems like we need to solve it sooner rather than later.
是的。
Yeah.
我不知道具体的解决方案会是什么。
I don't know what the solve is actually going to be.
你知道的,这里涉及的内容太多了。
It you know, there's so much here.
这件事实际上也泄露到了加密货币推特之外。
This actually leaked outside of crypto Twitter as well.
这是All In播客的联合主持人查马斯。
This is Chamath, cohost of All In podcast.
他说,我去年提过这件事,当时加密货币圈的人对此大为震惊,但关于加密货币圈的人,有两点是真实的。
He said, I mentioned last year, and the Crypto Bros freaked out about it, but there's two things that are true about Crypto Bros.
他们极其技术化,也极其信仰导向。
They're extremely technical and extremely belief oriented.
但有时候,后者会掩盖前者。
Sometimes, though, the latter clouds the former.
这篇来自谷歌的论文
This paper from Google
他只是在谈论比特币信徒。
He's just talking about Bitcoiners.
这些就是比特币信徒。
These are just Bitcoiners.
他很理性,这引发了一些重要的技术问题。
He's reasonable, and it raises some important technical questions.
加密领域的前辈们应该开始投入更多精力,制定一个能让加密货币抵御量子计算威胁的时间表。
The crypto elders should start spending more effort organizing on a time scale that that makes crypto quantum resistant, resistant.
并在未来几年内制定出一份明确的路线图。
And do this in the next few years with a conclusive roadmap.
每当沙莫特提出一个传遍全球且正确的观点时,我都讨厌这种感觉。
I hate it when Shamoth makes the point that echoes around the world and he's right.
接下来有什么内容?
What do we got coming up?
接下来,我们要讨论Solana上最大的一次黑客事件。
Coming up next, we're gonna talk about the the biggest hack on Solana.
Drift平台被窃取了2.85亿美元。
Are $285,000,000 exploited from Drift.
我们还要探讨从这次事件中吸取的教训。
And we're gonna talk about the lessons learned from that.
接下来我们将讨论以太坊和EEZ,即以太坊经济区,以及为什么这可能是以太坊3.0。
Then we're gonna go on to Ethereum and the EEZ, the Ethereum Economic Zones and why that might be ethereum3.o.
不过你还没从我们这里听到过这些。
You didn't hear from us though.
还有迄今为止最明确的证据表明,X正在其X Money超级应用中开发加密货币钱包,所有这些内容以及其他更多。
And also the clearest evidence so far that X is working on a crypto wallet in their X Money super app, all of that and more.
但首先,我们要聊聊这些让节目轻松愉快的优秀赞助商。
But first, we're gonna talk to some of these fantastic sponsors that make the chill possible.
市场正在对一个感觉极不稳定的世界做出反应。
Markets are reacting to a world that feels anything but stable.
通胀持续顽固,地缘政治风险上升,资本在加密货币、大宗商品、股票和货币之间的流动速度前所未有。
Inflation is sticky, geopolitical risk is rising, and capital is moving between crypto, commodities, equities, and currencies faster than ever.
像BITGET这样的通用交易所正是为这种环境而打造的。
A universal exchange like BITGET is built for this kind of environment.
通过一次重大应用升级,BITGET现在在导航栏中为传统金融(TradFi)设置了独立的标签页。
With a major app upgrade, BITGET now gives TradFi its own dedicated tab in the navigation.
一键即可访问股票、黄金、外汇及其他全球市场,全部都在您已使用的同一平台上。
One click gives you access to stocks, gold, forex, and other global markets, all inside the same platform you already use for crypto.
您可享受股票永续合约交易费高达90%的折扣,并可免手续费交易黄金和白银。
You can get 90% off trading fees on stock perps, you can trade gold and silver without the fee burn.
一个应用,一个账户。
One app, one account.
无需在不同平台间切换,即可同时交易加密资产和传统资产。
Trade crypto and traditional assets side by side without bouncing between platforms.
无需分散的工具,无需反复登录,只需一个为速度与灵活性打造的统一交易体验。
No scattered tools, no login juggling, just a unified trading experience built for speed and flexibility.
当黄金对全球风险做出反应,加密货币随流动性波动,宏观新闻可能一夜之间改变市场时。
When gold is reacting to global risk, crypto is moving on liquidity, and macro headlines can shift markets overnight.
您需要一个将所有内容集中于一处的平台。
You need a platform that keeps everything in one place.
这就是BITGET通用交易所愿景的现实体现。
This is BITGET's universal exchange vision in action.
如果你是那种随着世界变化而调整的交易者,BITGET 就是为你打造的。
If you're the kind of trader who adapts as the world changes, BITGET is built for you.
在一个平台上开始交易加密货币和传统金融资产。
Start trading crypto and TradFi in one place.
点击节目说明中的链接。
Click the link in the show notes.
这不是投资建议。
This is not investment advice.
有些令人兴奋的消息。
Some exciting news.
我们即将推出一个新的播客,帮助人们理解加密货币周期以及如何应对它。
We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how to navigate it.
我认识的最优秀的加密货币周期投资者,他的名字叫迈克尔·纳托。
The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael Nato.
他运营着 DeFi 报告。
He runs the DeFi report.
这个人在我收到价格下跌10:10的卖出提醒之前就发给了我预警。
This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the 10:10 price drop happened.
他的周期分析一直非常精准。
His cycle analysis has been absolutely on point.
我已经关注他好几年了。
I've been following him for years.
今年,我们开始每周录制播客节目。
And this year, we started recording weekly podcast episodes.
每一期,我们都会深入探讨他的投资组合、持仓情况、市场结构、入场目标、比特币和以太坊的公允价值,以及我们当前所处的周期阶段。
Each one, we get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure, entry targets, fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether, and where we are in the cycle.
每周三都会发布新一期节目。
There's new episodes that are released every Wednesday.
每期时长三十分钟。
They're thirty minutes.
节目很短。
They're short.
它们简短有力。
They're punchy.
我认为这个加密货币周期比大多数都更难应对,所以我们一起来应对吧。
I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most, so let's do it together.
去订阅这个播客吧。
Go subscribe to this podcast.
在你收听播客的任何平台搜索《DeFi报告》,无论是YouTube、Apple、Spotify,还是在节目笔记中查找链接。
Search the DeFi report wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or find a link in the show notes.
现在有一期新节目在等着你。
There's a new episode waiting for you now.
4月1日星期三,Solana上的永续合约平台Drift Protocol遭到攻击,损失达2.85亿美元。
On Wednesday, April 1, Drift Protocol, which is a Solana perp decks, was exploited for $285,000,000.
这是Solana上最大、甚至可能是最大的黑客事件。
One of, if not the biggest hack on Solana.
2022年曾发生过Wormhole黑客事件,损失3.25亿美元,但那是一次跨链桥攻击。
There was the wormhole hack a while ago in 2022 that was $325,000,000, but that was a bridge.
Drift是建立在Solana上的去中心化金融应用,所以这次攻击绝对称得上是Solana史上最严重的攻击事件之一。
Drift is a DeFi app on Solana, so it definitely ranks up there.
Drift总锁仓价值(TVL)的50%都被洗劫一空。
50% of Drift's total TVL was drained.
这一切是怎么发生的?
How did this happen?
攻击者通过社会工程学手段获取了五签多签钱包中的两个签名,随后就成功发起了一笔交易,我猜其余的多签签名者甚至都没能反应过来这笔交易是怎么回事。
The attacker somehow got a hold of two of the five multi sig signatures through social engineering, and they just were allowed to push a transaction through that I think some of the other multi sig signers couldn't comprehend.
所以攻击者就诱骗用户完成授权操作,借此夺取了协议的控制权。
And so they just pushed them to approve, which gave them control over the protocol.
这些权限包括创建市场、分配预言机、设置提币限额,更关键的是,这套权限没有任何时间锁机制。
That's market creation, Oracle assignment withdrawal limits, and also importantly, no time locks.
一旦攻击者掌握了足够数量的管理员密钥,他们就基本上完全掌控了这个协议的所有管理员权限。
And so once the exploiter had access to the sufficient number of admin keys, they basically had full admin control over the protocol.
在拿到这些密钥的几周前,他们就先铸造了一个假代币,连续多日进行自买自卖的刷量操作,伪造出虚假的交易量,让这个代币看起来像是正规项目。等他们掌控了协议的治理权后,就把这个假币添加到Drift Protocol里,从而牢牢控制了这个代币的全部供应量。
Weeks before they got access to these keys, they made this fake token that they had minted and wash traded for for days and days and days and days so that they could create this fake volume that made this token perceived to be real that allowed them once they had governance over the protocol to add this token to the Drift Protocol, and they control the entire supply.
一旦这个代币被批准作为抵押品,他们就可以用这个代币进行抵押,然后从协议中提取USDC、USDT和CB Bitcoin。
And so once this token was approved as collateral, they could collateralize this token and then withdraw USDC USDT, CB Bitcoin from the protocol.
所有这些操作在12分钟内通过31笔交易完成,导致2.85亿美元被盗取。
All of this happened in 31 transactions over twelve minutes that resulted in $285,000,000 getting drained.
在攻击事件首次被曝光后的数小时内,Drift代币下跌了20%。
The Drift token fell 20% in the hours after the exploit was first reported.
这种攻击背后投入的策划工作量巨大,而多重签名签署者们几乎像是被针对性猎杀了一样,对吧?
The the amount of planning that went into this, and it was like the multi sig signers were kind of like, almost like hunted, right?
所以,再次强调,只需要五个多重签名中的两个,就能拥有这种‘上帝模式’的能力,盗走2.85亿美元,这相当于Drift总锁仓量的50%。
So again, it took two of five on this multi sig in order to have this kind of god mode ability to drain 285,000,000, which is 50% of Drift's TBL.
这是一群非常精于算计的团伙策划并实施了这次攻击。
And it was a very sophisticated group that that pulled this off.
所以,像Lazarus集团这样的组织,很可能就是幕后黑手。
So someone like the Lazarus Group maybe even indeed was them.
我不确定。
I'm not sure.
我还没看到关于这件事的报道。
I haven't seen kind of the the reporting on this.
这就是漏洞所在。
And that was the vulnerability.
因此,他们成功欺骗了Drift五个多重签名签名者中的两个,让他们签署了这些他们并未完全理解的交易,这就是这次黑客攻击发生的方式。
So they were able to trick two of Drift's five multisig signers to sign these transactions that they didn't fully understand, and that's how this hack happened.
不幸的是,对于用户来说,钱已经没了。
Unfortunately, for users, like, there's I mean, the money's gone.
对吧?
Right?
Drift还没有提出任何补偿用户的方案。
So Drift hasn't come out with a way to re renumerate users.
在所有的永续合约协议中,Drift并不算一个很大的平台。
Drift was not a huge perps protocol in the scheme of all perps protocols.
他们大概排在前30名,但至少是Solana上最大或最大的几个之一。
They were kinda like top 30, but they were the biggest, I think, on Solana, at least one of the largest on Solana.
正如你所说,这堪称有史以来最大的黑客事件之一。
And as you said, I mean, this ranks as one of the the biggest hacks ever.
绝对是Solana上最大的一次。
Certainly the largest on Solana.
这让我想起了Ronin侧链黑客事件。
This reminded me a little bit of the Ronin side chain hack.
你还记得6.25亿美元吗?
Do you remember 625,000,000?
那是2022年的事。
That was in 2022.
那也是一起多重签名类型的黑客事件。
Was also multi sig type hack.
是的。
Yeah.
社会工程学攻击,密钥被泄露。
Social engineering, compromised keys.
这些多重签名对协议来说简直是危险的设置。
Like, these multi sigs are they are just hazardous for protocols to have in place.
对吧?
Right?
那我们从这次事件中学到了什么教训呢?
And, I mean, what are the lessons that that we learned from this?
一些DeFi创始人对Drift的管理结构、多重签名设置提出了很多批评。
There's a lot of just kind of criticism on the Drift structure, the admin setup, the multi sig setup of Drift from some DeFi founders.
因此,Aave的Stani和Uniswap的Hayden都表示,Drift根本算不上DeFi。
So both Stani from Aave and Hayden from Uniswap said something to the effect of Drift was not DeFi.
如果你拥有能做这类事情的管理员密钥,比如单个实体就能以这种方式控制整个协议,那这根本就不是DeFi。
If you have admin keys that can do these sorts of things, like one single entity can govern this protocol in this particular way, that's that's just not DeFi.
Hayden说,有人可能会指责我幸灾乐祸,但我们必须停止让中心化的东西自称是DeFi。
Hayden said, people might accuse me of grave dancing for saying it, but we have to stop letting centralized things call themselves DeFi.
一个能盗走所有资金的管理员密钥?
An admin key that can drain all the funds?
中心化金融。
CeFi.
否则,去中心化金融就毫无意义,品牌也会被毁掉。
Otherwise, DeFi means nothing and the brand is destroyed.
任何版本的Uniswap都不允许管理员密钥提取资金,这是有原因的。
No admin key can drain any version of Uniswap for a reason.
我认为这里有一个关键点,那就是这一切的核心在于智能合约和代码。
I think there's a point there to be taken of just the whole point of this thing is smart contracts and code.
这就是我们应该追求的目标,尽管实现起来非常困难。
And that's the thing to aspire to granted, that's a very difficult thing to aspire to.
我们还从另一个反面学到了教训:完全由代码治理的事物也存在问题。
And we've also learned other lessons in the inverse direction of things completely governed by code also have problems.
所以这有点像是进退两难。
So it's a little bit between stuck between a rock and a hard place.
我认为最重要的教训是零时间锁,即新的治理决策和管理员变更立即生效,没有任何挽回余地。
I think the big lesson to be learned was the zero time lock, the zero second time lock where new governance decisions, new admin changes go into effect immediately and don't give any sort of recourse.
是的。
Yeah.
有些事情应该有24小时或七天的延迟才能生效,这样人们才能有机会提出异议,说:‘等等,这不对。’
There should be, I don't know, twenty four hours, seven days before some things take effect that would allow people to just raise a flag and be like, yo, this is not right.
对。
Yeah.
当然,即使你使用多重签名,也有更好的设计方式。
Certainly, even if you have a multisig, are better ways to design it.
那只是一个二-of-五的多重签名,对吧?
It was only a two of five, right?
你可以用五-of-七,或者类似的方式。
You could do a five of seven or something like this.
是的。
Yeah.
还有很多种时间延迟和其他你可以采用的机制。
There's all sorts of time time delays, all sorts of things you could have done.
我认为另一个教训是,这些行为背后的社会工程手段正变得越来越复杂。
I think another lesson learned is the social engineering behind these acts is getting crazy sophisticated.
对吧?
Right?
所以,他们是如何让这些签名者实际签署的,我不确定是否完全清楚,但可能是供应链攻击,比如他们下载的某个依赖代码库现在感染了他们的设备。
So, how they got these signers to actually sign, I don't know if that's completely known, but it could be like supply chain attacks where, like, there's some kind of code library that they downloaded as a dependency has now infected their their machine.
我的意思是,如果你是多重签名的签名者,你应该时刻关注自己的设置,并对此保持警惕。
I mean, if you're a multisig signer, it's you should be concerned with your setup at all times and be paranoid about it.
你应该设置一个只做这一件事、不接触其他任何东西的系统。
You should have a setup that does not touch anything else other than doing it one job.
绝对如此。
Absolutely.
大卫,这周ETH CC上有一件大事引起了我的注意。
David, there was something that big that came out of ETH CC this week that caught my eye.
我想告诉你这件事。
I wanna tell you about it.
这样可以吗?
Is that okay?
我非常想听听。
I would I would love to hear it.
好的。
Okay.
当时有一个梦想,叫做以太坊联合体。
So, there was a dream that was the United Chains of Ethereum.
你还记得吗?
You remember this?
我也有过同样的梦想。
I I had this same dream.
我以为我们当时正在重回那个方向。
That's what I thought we were kind of getting back in Yeah.
2020年左右
2020 kind
我对于整个想法是这么想的。
I thought with the whole idea.
所以我想带你去
So I wanna take
也许去DEF CON 2024,你还记得Drake第一次发表关于Lean Ethereum的演讲是什么时候吗?
you to maybe DEF CON twenty twenty four, when do you remember when Drake gave his first kind of Lean Ethereum talk?
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
是那个五年计划的演讲吗?
The five year plan talk?
是的。
Yeah.
当时有新闻说Justin Drake要上台,要展示一些内容。
And so there was news like Justin Drake was getting on stage, he was gonna present something.
我当时希望这能成为连接所有链的一种方式,我原本想称之为以太坊3.0。
I was hoping it would be a way to unite all the chains, what I was thinking of calling kind of Ethereum 3 dot 0.
是的。
Yeah.
在官方公布之前,我们就已经在调侃以太坊3.0了。
We were memeing before it was announced, were memeing Ethereum 3 dot 0.
好的。
Okay.
我们所说的连接链,本质上是指同步的可组合性。
And what we meant by uniting the chains was basically synchronous composability.
所以L2路线图和L2策略普遍存在的问题是,每个L2都像一个独立的国家。
So the problem with the L2 roadmap and L2 strategy in general was that every L2 felt like a separate country.
对吧?
Right?
就像是有自己的
Like, had its own was a
一个独立的区块链。
separate blockchain.
所有东西都是独立的区块链。
Everything was a separate blockchain.
感觉就像一个区块链。
It felt like a blockchain.
当然,那里有一些共享的安全性,但说到流动性,哦,那是一个独立的流动性池。
Sure, there was some shared security there, but like, when it comes to liquidity, oh, that's a separate liquidity pool.
你有你的L2流动性,你想获得一个
You have your L2 liquidity, you wanna get the a
18种不同版本的Uniswap,18种不同版本的Aave,根本不是1+1=3。
implementations of Uniswap, 18 different implementations of Aave, like no no one no plus one equals three.
那就像一个安全联盟,一个非常松散的国家联邦。
It was a security alliance, like a like a very loose federation of countries.
它并不是一个统一的以太坊链。
It wasn't a united chains of Ethereum.
这并不是那种没有边界、所有人都共享同一流动性的情况。
It wasn't kind of like no borders, everyone shares the same liquidity.
好吧,也许这个梦想又可以提上日程了,我们拭目以待,但是
Okay, well, dream might be back on the menu, we'll see, but
我准备好再次在这里了吗?
Am I ready to be here again?
别抱太大希望,但说实话,我觉得这里确实有些实质内容。
Don't get your hopes up yet, but actually, I do think there's some meat on the bone here.
这是来自Gnosis和Jordy的推出。
So this is a roll out from Gnosis, and also from Jordy.
你还记得Jordy吗,Jordy。
You remember Jordy, Jordy.
是的。
Yeah.
Jordy Bellina。
Jordy Bellina.
嗯。
Mhmm.
是的。
Yes.
所以是ZK Genius。
So ZK Genius.
无论如何,它被称为EEZ。
Anyway, it's called EEZ.
它代表以太坊经济区,其承诺是让二层网络能够与一层网络同步组合,实现共享流动性、共享费用、共享一切。
It stands for the Ethereum Economic Zone, and the promise here is that it's a way for layer twos to synchronously compose with layer ones, so all shared liquidity, k, shared shared fees, shared everything.
因此,无论你在二层网络还是以太坊经济区的一层网络上,体验都无缝衔接,流动性是共享的。
So it seems seamless to be on whether on an L2 and the Ethereum Economic Zone of L1, it all feels seamless, shared liquidity.
这一切都是统一的。
It's all unified.
你可以实现原子化交易,确实感觉像一条链。
You can get atomic transactions through, and it does indeed feel like OneChain.
所以,他们通过技术架构和一些规范,再加上一点零知识证明的魔法,这在某种程度上很重要。
So, the way they are doing this is through technical architecture and some specifications, a sprinkling of ZK magic, you know, that's important for kind of
快速提款,再加入一些零知识证明,然后就是零知识证明,没错。
fast withdrawals, and To add some ZK, and then ZK, you're yep.
还有开发者工具和生态系统集成。
And what they, and then developer tooling, and ecosystem integration.
其中一些细节将在未来几周内逐渐显现。
Some of these details are gonna happen, are going to emerge over the coming weeks.
而他们的期望是,让各个链选择加入。
And the hope there is that you get chains to opt in.
其中一个理想的链,目前还是一个L1,就是Gnosis链。
So one chain that would be nice, which is currently an L1, is the Gnosis chain.
所以,据我所知,Gnosis链的负责人之一马丁曾表示,如果这套方案可行,Gnosis链可能会回归,并从L1转型为L2。
So Martin, the, I guess, one of the leads for for the Gnosis chain had said, if this works, the Gnosis chain might come back and might transfer from an L1 to an L2.
为什么呢?
And why?
原因是什么?
What's the reason?
共享经济。
Shared economics.
能够接入以太坊的所有流动性,这种联盟可以壮大,这有点像一个整体大于部分之和的故事。
Get to tap into all of Ethereum's liquidity, and this alliance can grow, so it's kind of a, you know, a sum type story.
整体大于部分之和的故事。
A sum is greater than the parts type story.
因为每一个加入的L2都会带来更多的流动性,而它们共同分享这些流动性。
Because every L2 that joins adds some more liquidity, and they all kind of share it together.
所以,这就是这种协同的期望。
So that's kind of the alignment hope.
我还不确定,现在判断他们能否实现还为时过早,但这个梦想依然存在。
I don't know yet, it's too early to see whether they can pull it off, but the dream is still alive.
是的。
Yeah.
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