Bankless - ROLLUP:ETH 发行之争 | Coldcard 遭攻击损失1.3亿美元 | Saylor 再次抛售 | Uniswap Launchpad 上线 封面

ROLLUP:ETH 发行之争 | Coldcard 遭攻击损失1.3亿美元 | Saylor 再次抛售 | Uniswap Launchpad 上线

ROLLUP: The ETH Issuance War | $130M Coldcard Exploit | Saylor Sells Again | Uniswap Launchpad

本集简介

Ethereum’s monetary policy is suddenly up for debate. Ryan and David unpack the issuance fight dividing researchers and DeFi builders, the Coldcard exploit that hit users who “did everything right,” Saylor’s latest Bitcoin sale, and markets ripping back to all-time highs. --- 📣SPOTIFY PREMIUM RSS FEED | USE CODE: SPOTIFY24 https://bankless.cc/spotify-premium --- BANKLESS SPONSOR TOOLS: 🔓NEAR | TRADE CONFIDENTIALLY, GET 20% BACK https://bankless.cc/near-pod 🔑BITKEY | GET 10% OFF USE CODE: BANKLESS | #bitkeypartner https://bankless.cc/bitkey ✈️COINBASE ONE CARD | EARN 5% BACK IN BITCOIN https://bankless.cc/coinbase-one-card 📊BITGET | TOKENIZED STOCKS 2.0 https://bankless.cc/bitget-stocks 🎯THE DEFI REPORT | ONCHAIN INSIGHTS https://thedefireport.io/bankless --- TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Intro 0:25 Markets, AI, and Bitcoin https://x.com/bulltheoryio/status/2084634593836372202 https://www.vanityfair.com/story/anthropic-situational-awareness-wedding 6:31 Saylor’s Bitcoin Selloff https://x.com/hedgeye/status/2084278278794117372 https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2084247862833971631 https://x.com/saylor/status/2084315637715763579 18:00 Ethereum Issuance Fight https://x.com/zoomerfied/status/2084641592615256254 https://x.com/jdetychey/status/2084638778677751889 https://issuance.wtf/ https://x.com/TrustlessState/status/2084685295484633349 https://x.com/StaniKulechov/status/2084925768711213105 https://x.com/StaniKulechov/status/2084667208668467574 https://x.com/DCinvestor/status/2084971858311438688 https://x.com/MikeSilagadze/status/2084703078909907000 39:59 Coldcard Wallet Drain https://x.com/itscoachgoodman/status/2083527082223563157 https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/04/hackers-steal-over-130-million-by-exploiting-bug-in-offline-hardware-wallets/ https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/08/05/coldcard-exploit-could-boost-demand-for-regulated-bitcoin-exposure-analysts-say https://thedefiant.io/news/hacks/i-did-everything-right-coldcard-victims-recount-losing-life-savings https://x.com/EpsilonTheory/status/2083642741075124680 https://x.com/lopp/status/2083575437599371321 https://x.com/AriDavidPaul/status/2083591462726361235 https://x.com/PeterMcCormack/status/2083631731052290261 52:00 Uniswap, Clarity, and Crypto Updates https://x.com/Uniswap/status/2084678603812274275 https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026 https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/07/27/u-s-senate-puts-off-crypto-clarity-act-for-now-as-it-focuses-limited-bandwidth-elsewhere https://x.com/Cloudflare/status/2084648084131242402 https://x.com/NEARProtocol/status/2082879865385062520 https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2084614210118426971 https://x.com/arc/status/2084993791413678099 --- Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here: https://www.bankless.com/disclosures

双语字幕

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Speaker 0

Bankless 国度,现在是八月的第一周,又到了 Bankless 每周总结的时间了。

Bankless nation, it's the first week of August, and it's time for the bankless weekly roll up.

Speaker 0

我们这周准备了一些话题要和大家分享。

We got some topics of the week coming your way.

Speaker 0

以太坊发行量之争,我们在以太坊社区又看到了一个关于 EIP 的辩论。

The ETH issuance war, we got another debate about an EIP in Ethereum lands.

Speaker 0

这次这个 EIP 有点不一样,因为它把以太币当作货币来讨论,所以每个人都有看法,包括我和 Ryan。

This one's this one's different in the sense that it talks about Ether as money, so everyone has an opinion on it, including me and Ryan.

Speaker 0

也许 Ryan 也有他的看法。

Maybe Ryan David opinion on it.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我想听听你的看法,因为我们还没聊过这个。

I wanna find out your opinion because we haven't discussed this yet.

Speaker 1

但我知道,大概三周前我们听到风声说这个要来了。

But I know I think it was, like, three weeks ago when we heard rumor that this was on the horizon.

Speaker 1

你之前跟我说,你对这场风波很期待。

You said to me, you were excited for the drama.

Speaker 1

所以,我的朋友

So my friend

Speaker 0

你确实有热闹看了。

you got some drama.

Speaker 0

好。

Alright.

Speaker 1

关于这个,有很多讨论,我想听听你的看法。

You got some some discussion about this, and I wanna get your take.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

这基本上是ETH研究人员和应用层之间的对立,通常你不会看到这么清晰的分界线,但这次就是这样。

It's basically the ETH researchers versus the app layer, which usually you don't get such a clean line dividing this drama, but that's what we got.

Speaker 0

所以我们就来聊聊这个。

So we're gonna talk about that.

Speaker 0

我们还要聊聊Coldcard遭黑客攻击的事。

We're also gonna talk about the Coldcard exploit.

Speaker 0

超过一亿美元的比特币从被认为非常安全可靠的比特币冷钱包里被转走了。

So over $100,000,000 of Bitcoin drained from what was thought to be very safe and secure Bitcoin cold storage.

Speaker 0

大家普遍的说法是每个人都做对了所有步骤。

Everyone, the common line was that everyone did everything right.

Speaker 0

可比特币还是被提走了。

And yet the Bitcoin got yanked.

Speaker 0

我们会聊聊这事是怎么发生的,以及现在比特币圈子里因此有什么动静。

We're gonna talk about how that happened and what is happening as a result of that over in Bitcoin land.

Speaker 0

再聊聊股市,标普、道琼斯这些指数上周市场血流成河的时候却创了历史新高。

Talking about the stock market s and p and Dow Jones and the the indices hitting all time highs when there was blood on the streets last week.

Speaker 0

天哪,真是疯狂。

Dude, wild.

Speaker 0

是啊。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

太疯狂了。

Wild.

Speaker 0

什么?

What?

Speaker 0

看来股市随时都能创历史新高,不管前一天或前一周发生了什么。

I like apparently, you can have an all time high in the stock market at any time no matter what happened the day or week prior.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

没错。

That's right.

Speaker 1

到了那周大跌的时候。

By the dip week.

Speaker 1

还有,咱们得聊聊萨姆·塞尔。

Also, we gotta talk about Saylor.

Speaker 1

他又卖了一些比特币,这次他还解释了一番。

He sold some Bitcoin again, and he explained himself this time.

Speaker 1

他说,我作为一个储蓄者跟另一个储蓄者说。

He said, I speak as one saver to another.

Speaker 1

他说的是什么意思?

What was he talking about?

Speaker 1

这个我们也会讨论。

We'll discuss that as well.

Speaker 1

大卫,我们还是先从股市的历史新高开始吧。

Let's start actually, David, with the stock market all time high.

Speaker 1

这是标普500,不是纳斯达克。

This is the S and P, so it's not the Nasdaq.

Speaker 1

标普在7月份大概跌了6%。

S and P, what, had been off in July, like, 6%.

Speaker 1

我知道纳斯达克跌了差不多10%,类似这样。

I know Nasdaq was down about 10%, something like this.

Speaker 1

然后8月第一周看起来出现了V型反弹,从那个坑里出来了。

And we got what looks to be in the the first week of August, a v shaped recovery out of that hole.

Speaker 1

现在标普500指数也创下了历史新高。

And now S and P's all time high.

Speaker 1

纳斯达克还没完全到那个位置,你能解释一下这是怎么回事吗?

Not Nasdaq has not quite hit it, but, like, can you explain that?

Speaker 1

到底发生了什么?

What happened?

Speaker 0

说实话,我也不太清楚。

I don't know, man.

Speaker 0

你看,我共享屏幕了,你能看到那个K线。

Like, look, I'm sharing my screen, you can see the candle.

Speaker 0

这根K线很大。

The candle's big.

Speaker 0

就像我们从伊朗战争底部的低谷里大幅反弹,用了三根巨大的阳线,在二十天左右把标普500指数拉高了11%。

Like, we had that gargantuan rise out of the bottom of the Iran war with three massive candles that brought up the S and P up 11% across, like twenty days.

Speaker 0

这根K线看起来是周K线,标普500的涨幅是3%,从7500点一路涨到接近7800点的最高点,录制的时候稍微回落了一点。

The candle looks like that it is a the weekly candle and the s and p is a 3% candle that brought it from 7,500 all the way up to the tippy top almost 7,800 were down a little bit at the time of recording.

Speaker 0

但就像是一次巨大的反弹,从标普500从高点下跌3.5%的地方,然后它又在很短的时间内飙升了6%或7%。

But just like a gargantuan, like, recovery out from like, yeah, where the S and P was down 3.5% off of its off of its highs, and then it rocketed up six or 7% in a very short amount of time.

Speaker 0

而这一切都归功于Leopold,他因为情境意识在底部被清算。

And this was all on the backs of Leopold from situational awareness getting liquidated right at the bottom.

Speaker 0

所以他肯定是在绝对的最低点,因为他有一个相当不错的基金,持有大量刚刚获得惊人收益的资产,并且在底部被迫卖出。

So he must have been the absolute pico bottom because he had a pretty decent fund that had a lot of the assets that had just made incredible gains and forced seller at the bottom.

Speaker 0

然后我想,也许这给了市场信心,让它按下买入按钮,因为游戏还没结束,Citadel正在介入。

And then and then I think I think maybe that gave the confit the market the confidence it needed to just hit the hit the buy button because the game's not over and Citadel was stepping in.

Speaker 0

这就是我的看法。

Like, I I that's my read.

Speaker 1

这确实像是确认了至少市场认为AI的游戏还没结束,AI交易还在继续。

It does seem like confirmation that at least the market thinks the game is not over for AI and the AI trade continues.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,如果你看纳斯达克,这种V型复苏就更明显了。

I mean, this is even more stark if you look at Nasdaq, right, kind of that V shaped recovery.

Speaker 1

看起来几乎像是Ashenbrenner被追加保证金了。

It almost looks like Ashenbrenner got margin called.

Speaker 1

他被抬出去了。

He got carried out.

Speaker 1

他在这里被清算了。

He got liquidated here.

Speaker 1

然后一旦他的仓位被清算,市场就恢复了。

And then once his positions were liquidated, the market recovered.

Speaker 1

所以看起来就像是专门针对他,把他干掉,然后市场又掉头往另一边走。

And so it's like it it almost looked like it was targeted to take him out, and then, you know, like, the market spins back on the other side of things.

Speaker 1

上周我们还不太确定他是不是真的彻底出局了,就是那种资本层面的出局。

Now last week, we weren't sure if he was, like, out out, you know, through his capital style.

Speaker 1

对冲基金基本上算是被清掉了。

Hedge fund is kind of, like, deleted.

Speaker 1

他们现在处于亏损状态。

They are underwater.

Speaker 1

看起来这还只是皮外伤。

Apparently, this was still a flesh wound.

Speaker 1

他的基金被狠狠砍了一大块。

It took a pretty large chunk out of his fund.

Speaker 1

所以七月的时候他亏了67%。

So he is down 67% in July.

Speaker 1

不过,David,今年整体还是赚得挺多的。

But, David, still up big on the year.

Speaker 1

明白吗?

Okay?

Speaker 1

这只基金今年早些时候表现非常出色,成绩相当亮眼。

This fund was outperforming, doing incredible work earlier this year.

Speaker 1

它一直是一只超级明星基金。

It's been a absolute superstar fund.

Speaker 1

虽然经历了一个艰难的月份,但并没有因为这次清算而彻底崩盘。

It had a rough month, but did not completely collapse under the weight of this liquidation.

Speaker 1

基金的规模从最高时的200亿到300亿美元,缩水到了剩下的80亿到100亿美元左右,而且大部分资产都投在了私募领域。

The the fund went from 20 to $30,000,000,000 peak to about 8 to 10,000,000,000 remaining, most of that in privates.

Speaker 1

因此,很多公开持仓都被抛售和清算掉了。

A lot of the public positions were sold off and liquidated as a result of this.

Speaker 1

所以他还在这儿。

So he's still around.

Speaker 1

他还在坚持。

He's still fighting.

Speaker 1

而且看起来市场已经从这次大规模清算中恢复过来了。

And it looks like the market has just recovered from this large liquidation.

Speaker 0

据报道,他用了400%的杠杆。

He was reportedly on 400% leverage.

Speaker 0

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 0

对,就是说你被清算了。

Yeah, like, you're liquidated.

Speaker 0

在那个数字上你就被清算了。

You're liquidated at that number.

Speaker 1

你不是告诉我这事发生的时候他在婚礼上吗?

Didn't you tell me he was at his wedding when this happened?

Speaker 0

对,就是那时候。

When he did.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得,我觉得就是那天。

That so that was I think I think it was the day.

Speaker 0

有一篇《名利场》的文章。

So there's a Vanity Fair article.

Speaker 0

有一堆文章标题是《如何两天内躲过数十亿损失并娶到老婆》。

There's a bunch of articles titled, how to elude billions and gain a wife in two days.

Speaker 0

不管他是不是穿着燕尾服,对吧。

Whether or not he was, like, in his tuxedo, like Yeah.

Speaker 0

你知道,就像准备走上圣坛那样。

You know, like, ready to walk up to the altar.

Speaker 0

我不确定具体时间,但大概就是那个时间窗口,他一边被平仓,一边还得打电话给 Citadel 的 Ken Griffin 来救他。

I don't know the timing of that, but, like, it was inside of that window of opportunity where he was getting liquidated and had to get on the phone with Citadel's Ken Griffin to bail him out.

Speaker 0

不是救他,而是接他的盘。

Not bail him out, but just, like, buy his bags.

Speaker 0

但确实,这是个故事,

But, yes, story for

Speaker 1

讲给孙子孙女听的。

the grandkids.

Speaker 0

抱歉。

Sorry.

Speaker 0

这个记忆对他来说可能不是最光彩的,但,管他呢。

Not not the best codedness of that memory, I think, for for his future, but, like, whatever.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

最终,他的基金今年还是涨了80%,所以它仍然是近年来表现最好的基金之一。

Ultimately, his his fund is still up 80% on the year, so it's still one of the best performing funds in a while.

Speaker 0

但,是的。

But Yeah.

Speaker 0

那只能是加密资产了。

You'd have to be crypto assets.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

比加密资产更好。

Better than crypto assets.

Speaker 0

没错。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

作为有限合伙人,你心里肯定挺矛盾的。毕竟之前你的收益已经翻了五倍甚至更多,现在虽然只涨了80%,但整体表现依然不错。

As a LP, you would have to be at least be like, at best mixed feelings because you were previously up like five x, x on your money, and now you're up 80%.

Speaker 0

所以从结果来看,你赚得还是蛮多的。

And so you're still doing very well.

Speaker 0

不过确实是这样。

But Yeah.

Speaker 0

因为刚才那会儿你的业绩可是相当亮眼的。

Because you were doing really well a second ago.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

但这也就是风险管理没做到位。

But it's it's also just sort of the risk management wasn't there.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

我是说,这完全是连环崩盘。

I mean, this is quite a cascading collapse.

Speaker 1

所以,LP们肯定有点动摇,有点慌,但FOMO又回来了,AI交易还在继续。

So, I mean, LP's gotta be a little shaken little rattled, but the FOMO is back in the AI trade continues.

Speaker 1

那我们的朋友,Strategy公司的迈克尔·塞勒呢?

How about our friend, Michael Saylor over at strategy?

Speaker 1

他这周卖了一些比特币。

He sold some Bitcoin on the week.

Speaker 1

那是怎么回事?

What was that about?

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得塞勒卖比特币大概主要有三次。

So we have like, I think three main instances of Saylor selling Bitcoin.

Speaker 0

第一次他卖了32个比特币,比特币价格跌了差不多18000美元。第二次卖的时候,具体数字我记不清了,但肯定比32个多很多。

The first one where he sold 32 Bitcoin collapsed for the Bitcoin price by like $18,000 The next sale of Bitcoin, I can't remember the numbers, but it was much more than 32.

Speaker 0

大概有几百个吧,可能两三百个比特币。

It was like in the hundreds, maybe a couple 100 Bitcoin.

Speaker 0

是的,那周比特币基本持平,甚至还稍微涨了一点。

Yeah, that's Bitcoin was like flat or like even marginally up on the week.

Speaker 0

这周,微策略公司宣布卖出了1638个比特币,价值1.05亿美元。

This week, micro strategy strategy announced that it sold $16.38 Bitcoin worth 105,000,000.

Speaker 0

然后比特币从62000美元涨到了63500美元。

And Bitcoin jumps from 62,000 to $63,500.

Speaker 0

所以这周比特币是涨的。

So Bitcoin up on the week.

Speaker 0

Ryan,我对这个消息很看好。

Ryan, I'm bullish about this news.

Speaker 0

我对这个消息很看好。

I'm bullish about this news.

Speaker 0

等等。

Wait.

Speaker 0

为什么?

Why?

Speaker 0

Michael Saylor,比特币最大的持有者,卖掉了超过1000.5个比特币,而比特币居然涨了。

Mike Michael Saylor, the number one holder of Bitcoin, selling over a 1,000.5 Bitcoin and Bitcoin goes up.

Speaker 0

对我来说,看涨的理由是Michael Saylor作为比特币价格的关键风险因素,需要从市场中移除。

This the the bull case for me is that Michael Saylor needs to be removed from the market as a key man risk to Bitcoin price.

Speaker 0

当他卖出价值1.05亿美元的比特币,而比特币市场毫不在意,反而上涨时,就像在说,哦,市场已经不再在乎你了。

And when he is selling $105,000,000 of Bitcoin and the Bitcoin market doesn't care, and actually goes up, It's like, oh, you and like the market no longer cares about you.

Speaker 0

你可以退居幕后,不再作为比特币的主要边际定价者了。

You're free to like move to the background as like the main marginal pricer of Bitcoin.

Speaker 1

对,我觉得确实是这样。

Yeah, I think that's true.

Speaker 1

他不再是比特币价格走势的主角了,这可能是件好事,因为我觉得当他卖那32个比特币的时候,市场其实已经把这些未来的抛售都提前定价了。

He's he's no longer the main character of Bitcoin price action, which is probably healthy because the market I think when he sold the 32 Bitcoin priced all of these future sales in basically.

Speaker 1

完全没错。

Totally.

Speaker 1

现在市场对策略公司接下来要做什么的看法是,这会是一个平稳的去杠杆过程。

And now right now, the market outlook on what strategy is going to do is it's going to be a graceful unwind process of some of this leverage.

Speaker 1

不会乱成一团。

It's not gonna be chaos.

Speaker 1

不会引发连锁反应。

It's not gonna be cascades.

Speaker 1

我们都知道塞勒会怎么做。

We know what Saylor's going to do.

Speaker 1

如果有MNAV溢价,他就会再增发一些MSTR的股票。

If there's a MNAV premium, he'll mint some more MSTR shares.

Speaker 1

MSTR的持有者可能不这么觉得。

MSTR holders might feel differently about this.

Speaker 1

他们可能对现在发生的事不太满意。

They might not feel great about what's happening.

Speaker 1

但你知道,他会卖掉比特币来偿还优先股股东。

But, you know, he's going to sell Bitcoin in order to pay preferred share owners.

Speaker 1

我注意到STRC又回到90以上了。

I noticed STRC is back up above 90.

Speaker 0

大概是92.93美元。

It was like, $92.93.

Speaker 0

看起来不错。

Looks good.

Speaker 1

那就健康多了。

So much much healthier.

Speaker 1

比六月的低点涨了30%,当时是71美元,那是个很好的买入机会。

It's up 30% from the June lows, which at $71, that was like a a good buy back then.

Speaker 1

现在STR是多少?

Right now STR?

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我说的是STRC。

I'm s t r c.

Speaker 1

现在,哦,是的。

Right now Oh, yes.

Speaker 1

比特币现在挺有意思的。

Bitcoin is kind of an interesting place.

Speaker 1

就像,我们录制的时候是多少来着?

It's like, what are we at the time of recording?

Speaker 1

什么?

What?

Speaker 1

6万零640美元?

$60.64 k?

Speaker 0

差不多是这样?

Something like that?

Speaker 0

六万四千五百美元。

$64,500.

Speaker 0

从六月中旬开始,我们基本上就一直沿着两百周均线在走。

We are we have been riding the two hundred week moving average since the middle of June, basically.

Speaker 0

大概有六个星期了。

Like six weeks.

Speaker 0

我们一直沿着从62,000美元开始的200周均线运行,直到现在的

We have been riding the two hundred week moving average from $62,000 to where it

Speaker 1

大概64,000美元左右。

is right now at like $64,000.

Speaker 1

所以200周均线大概在64,000美元,我们就在这条线附近波动。

So the two hundred week is about $64,000 and we're just riding that.

Speaker 1

而且我们已经在这条线下方待了多久了?差不多40天了吧?

And we have been under that, what, like, forty days?

Speaker 1

比如在这轮熊市里,我们有过几次短暂跌破吧,是不是?

Like, a few times briefly during this bear market, haven't we?

Speaker 1

但时间不长。

But, like, not a long time.

Speaker 0

四十天。

Forty days.

Speaker 0

没有。

No.

Speaker 0

我觉得我们跌破两百周均线的时间不到一周。

I would say under a week, we have been under the two hundred week.

Speaker 1

那大概是最近的事吧。

That's lately, I guess.

Speaker 0

不是。

No.

Speaker 0

最近从历史来看,我们跌破两百周均线的时间,嗯,我想想,大概四十天甚至更长一点。

Lately in the historically, like, we were under the two hundred week moving average for, yeah, I think 40 to maybe a little bit longer.

Speaker 0

但那是又一次,在三大资本、Luna、FTX 的传染之后,拜托,那种血流成河的场面你平时可看不到。

But that was, again, post three hours capital Luna FTX contagion, which come on, you don't see any blood on the streets like that.

Speaker 1

哦,这挺有意思的。

Oh, it's interesting.

Speaker 1

所以比特币和纳斯达克一直高度相关。

So Bitcoin has been highly correlated to Nasdaq.

Speaker 1

所以比特币这周上涨的部分原因就是纳斯达克也在涨,而且这种相关性

So part of the reason Bitcoin is up on the week is because Nasdaq is also up and the correlation

Speaker 0

如果真是这样的话。

is if that's true.

Speaker 0

我不确定是不是真的。

I don't know if that's true.

Speaker 1

这种相关性在最近这段时间并没有更高。

It's the correlation has, like, not been higher in recent, like, recent terms.

Speaker 1

但问题是,问题是

But the question the question is

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如果你看纳斯达克的图表和比特币的图表,那些图表看起来完全不一样。

If you look at the Nasdaq chart and the Bitcoin chart, those are just different looking charts.

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我是说,他们……对。

I mean, they yeah.

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我想,比如最近三十天吧,但我觉得问题是,比特币是不是

I I guess, like, recent times over the last thirty days, but I guess I think the question is, has Bitcoin

Speaker 0

已经见底了?总是这个问题。

bottomed relative It's to always the question.

Speaker 0

总是这个问题。

It's always the question.

Speaker 0

所以,就像,你怎么

So like, like, how are

Speaker 1

个人感觉怎么样?

you feeling about it personally?

Speaker 1

你准备好卖出你的AI股票了吗?

Are you prepared to sell your AI stocks?

Speaker 1

你是不是在趁机做空这波市场复苏?

Are you like fading this recovery, market recovery?

Speaker 1

然后去买加密货币资产?

And it's like buying crypto assets?

Speaker 1

你是不是还在想,AI交易是不是又回来了?

Are you still like, okay, AI trade back on?

Speaker 1

我觉得我们现在可能是在第三轮、第四轮,或者不知道第几轮了。

I guess we're in for like, I don't know, round three, round four, whatever round this is.

Speaker 1

就AI交易复苏这块。

In terms of AI trade recovery here.

Speaker 1

你现在怎么看?

What's your what's your outlook right now?

Speaker 0

对,我最近一周左右一直在问也在聊这个问题,我觉得我们在每周总结里也一直在聊一直在问这个。

Yeah, I I've been asking and talking about this question a lot in the last week or so, and I think we've been talking and asking about this question a lot on the weekly roll up.

Speaker 0

从感觉上讲,就是最不技术、最模糊的回答。

As a vibe, the most nontechnical, like, pseudo answer possible.

Speaker 0

你只要看这张图,这是比特币的周线图,一直追溯到2020年,你就能看到周期,对吧?

If you just look at this chart, which is the Bitcoin chart with weekly candles that goes all the way back to 2020, You see the cycles, right?

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你能看到2020年的周期,也能看到2022年到2023年中期的熊市。

You see the 2020 cycle, you see the 2022 to twenty twenty three and a half bear market.

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然后你看到当前这个周期,比特币涨到了13万。

And then you see the current cycle where Bitcoin went up to 130.

Speaker 0

当前周期的尾声,从13万的高点回落,看起来还没走完。

This the tail end of the current cycle coming down from a 130,000, it just doesn't look done yet.

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图表看起来还没完成它的周期走势。

The chart doesn't look like it's done completing its cycle.

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所以从整体感觉看,你可能会看到它再往下跌一点。

So as a vibe, like you can see it going down a little bit more.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

然后,接下来就是一轮U型的熊市,持续大概一年半。

And then and then having a big u shaped bear market for like a year and a half.

Speaker 0

当然。

Sure.

Speaker 0

所以,单从图表的外观美感来看,它看起来还没走完,这不是个好的答案,但某种程度上也印证了周期依然完整。

So as as as just speaking as to the visual aesthetics of the chart, it doesn't look done yet, which is not a good answer, but it kind of correlates with like the whole the cycles are intact.

Speaker 0

如果我们相信周期是完整的,那图表的形态看起来完成了85%,但还没到100%。

And if we believe the cycles intact, the the visual shape of the chart looks 85% complete, but not a 100%.

Speaker 0

我来给你

I'll give

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另一个我感觉到的氛围,跟这个有点类似,就是直到AI交易结束之前,我们都不会真正触底。

you another vibe that I feel, which is kind of sort of similar to this, which is we don't fully bottom until the AI trade is over.

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而市场也认可这一点。

And the market acknowledges that.

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因为我觉得现在发生的是,即使我看着你,你也没准备好现在卖掉你的AI科技股、QQQ,或者你在传统金融投资组合里的其他东西,然后去买加密货币。

Because I think what's happening, even as I'm looking at you, you're not prepared to sell your AI tech stocks and your QQQ, whatever else you have in your TradFi portfolio and buy crypto right now.

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因为你还不完全认为这已经结束了。

Because you don't quite think it's over yet.

Speaker 1

我觉得市场其他部分也是这么看的。

And that's what I think the rest of the market also sees.

Speaker 1

他们还是大量投资在AI上。

They're still disproportionately in AI.

Speaker 1

他们还在纳斯达克。

They're still in Nasdaq.

Speaker 1

他们还没回到加密货币。

They haven't yet come back to crypto.

Speaker 1

我觉得除非那发生,否则不会有完全复苏,AI交易可能得先死,加密货币才能活。

And I don't think we get that full recovery until that happens, until the AI like, the AI trade might have to die in order for crypto to live.

Speaker 1

我觉得从感觉上来说是这样。

I think that's from a vibe perspective

Speaker 0

我知道这可能会怎么发展。

I I how this could all play out.

Speaker 0

我越来越在想这个问题。

I I'm I've been thinking about that more and more and more.

Speaker 0

我上周听了你和迈克尔·纳多的那期节目,里面提到了"时间底"这个词

You I was listening to your episode with Michael Nadeau this last week, and the word time based capitulation

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对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

出现了好几次。

Came up a bunch.

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是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

比如,我实在想不通比特币市场里怎么会有那么多被迫抛售的人,甚至根本没有什么主动卖家。你看像Saylor那样卖出1050枚比特币,价格反而还在涨。这说明市场上并没有多少强制卖盘,杠杆和永续合约在下跌行情里的币种中也没那么夸张,不过算了。

Where like, I don't have I don't have any reasons for why there's any more forced sellers or sellers at all in Bitcoin, like who like Saylor is selling 1,000.5 Bitcoin, and the price is going up, like no one is a for seller, there's not there that much leverage in the system, of leverage and perps in the down market coins, but whatever.

Speaker 0

所以,到底谁会来当那个砸盘的人呢?

So like, who's gonna be the foreseller?

Speaker 0

答案是谁都不会。

The answer is like no one.

Speaker 0

但可能会有因为机会成本而选择卖出的人,比如QQQ、Micron或者SK海力士这些股票如果直接翻倍的话。

But there could be opportunity cost sellers where the qqq and like a micron and like SK hynix is just doubles in price.

Speaker 0

然后你就想,我拿着这破比特币干嘛呢?对。

And you're like, what am I doing with this stupid fucking Bitcoin Yeah.

Speaker 1

那还是

That's still at

Speaker 0

六万四美元。

$64,000.

Speaker 0

我想去搞AI那波行情,所以我把币卖了,好去买AI板块的顶点。

I'm and I wanna get into the AI trade, so I'm selling so I can buy the top of the AI trade.

Speaker 0

而且,你能隐约感觉到这一点。

And, like, you can kinda see you can kinda see that.

Speaker 0

这可能会持续一段时间。我刚才提到,比特币周期的美学形态完成可能还需要六个月。

And that that could take the rest of when I when I just said the the aesthetic completion of the AI of the of the Bitcoin cycle could needs six more months.

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你可以看到AI板块的交易再持续六到九个月,然后比特币持有者就会因为时间到了而被迫投降,心想:去他的这些愚蠢的比特币吧。

And you could see the AI trade running for six more months, nine more months, and then the time based capitulation of Bitcoin holders being like, fuck these stupid Bitcoins.

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让我去买点内存股,哪怕内存股已经涨了5000%。

Let me buy let me buy some more memory stocks even though memory stocks have gone up 5000%.

Speaker 0

我有点觉得你能看到这种情况发生。

I kinda think you can see that happening.

Speaker 1

我也能看到。

I could see it too.

Speaker 1

我也能看到。

I can see it too.

Speaker 1

这可能就是现在正在发生的情况,也是我们在看到底部和熊市结束之前必须经历的过程。

That that might be what is playing out right now and what has to play out before we see the bottom and before we see the bear market conclude.

Speaker 1

大卫,我们还有更多要讨论的。

David, we got more to discuss.

Speaker 1

我想和你聊聊ETH发行量之争。

I wanna talk to you about the ETH issuance war.

Speaker 1

到底发生了什么?

What is going on?

Speaker 1

这周那个震动以太坊世界的提案是什么?

What is the proposal that rocked the Ethereum world this week?

Speaker 1

另外,还有Coldcard被攻击的事件。

Also, the Coldcard exploit.

Speaker 1

受害者们每一步都做对了。

Victims did everything right.

Speaker 1

怎么回事?

What happened?

Speaker 1

这种情况会发生在其他自托管持有者身上吗?

Could this happen to other self custodial holders?

Speaker 1

你说过看起来没人做错什么,但确实有人做错了。

You said it seemed like no one did anything wrong, but somebody did.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Okay?

Speaker 1

这里面有问题。

There was there was a problem in this.

Speaker 1

我们接下来会详细讲讲这到底是什么情况,以及更多相关内容。

We'll unpack what that is, all this, and more.

Speaker 1

但在我们开始之前,我们要感谢让这一切成为可能赞助商。

But before we do, we wanna thank the sponsors that made this possible.

Speaker 0

我交易加密资产快十年了,用过太多钱包、交易所、聚合器、前端,其实我一直在寻找同样的东西。

I've been trading crypto assets for almost a decade, and I've used so many wallets, exchanges, aggregators, front ends, and I'm kinda always looking for the same thing.

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一个界面,能跨多条链和多种资产提供深度流动性,还能保护隐私,同时我仍然掌控自己的资金。

One interface with deep liquidity across a bunch of chains and assets and the ability to act in private, and I still control my own funds.

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但我一直没找到,我总是在换钱包,纠结于gas费,或者被滑点吃掉利润。

And I've never really found it, and I'm always switching wallets, juggling gas fees, or getting eaten by slippage.

Speaker 0

Near.com给我的感觉完全不同。

Near.com feels fundamentally different to me.

Speaker 0

我的账户很容易使用,我可以在任何链上执行我想要的任何操作,而我的活动保持机密。

My account is easy to use, and I can take all the actions I want from any chain while my activity remains confidential.

Speaker 0

它运行在NEAR上,已凭借后量子签名完成超过230亿美元的跨链交易,并且有五年多的稳定运行时间。

It runs on NEAR, which has moved over $23,000,000,000 cross chain using post quantum signing and has over five years of uptime.

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Near.com是链上操作并保持掌控的最佳方式。

Near.com is the best way to be on chain and be in control.

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通过银行列表链接,你可以拿回20%的交易手续费。

Get 20% of your trading fees back through the bank list link.

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链接在节目说明里,这不是投资建议。

It's in the show notes, not investment advice.

Speaker 0

自我托管赢了,但可用性还是有问题。

Self custody won, but it still has a usability problem.

Speaker 0

纸上的助记词仍然是单点故障。

A seed phrase on paper is still a single point of failure.

Speaker 0

手机会丢,设备会坏,备份会消失。

Phones get lost, devices break, backups disappear.

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BITKEY就是为这种现实情况设计的自我托管硬件钱包。

BITKEY is a self custodial hardware wallet built for that reality.

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它采用2-of-3多重签名,密钥分别存放在你的手机、BITKEY硬件设备和Block上。

It uses a two of three multisig with keys split across your phone, the BITKEY hardware device, and Block.

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没有任何一把单独的钥匙能移动你的比特币,Block也不能单独移动它。

No single key can move your Bitcoin, and Block can never move it alone.

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没有助记词需要担心丢失或泄露,而且如果你丢了手机、BITKEY或者两者都丢了,内置的恢复功能也能让你找回路径。

There's no seed phrase to lose or expose, and if you lose your phone, your BITKEY, or both, built in recovery gives you a path back.

Speaker 0

硬件屏幕还能让你在确认交易之前核实收款地址。

The hardware screen also lets you verify the destination before approving a transaction.

Speaker 0

而这正是重点。

And that's the point.

Speaker 0

更多控制权,而不必担心一个失误就让一切陷入风险。

More control without one mistake putting everything at risk.

Speaker 0

所以今天就下载BitKey,使用优惠码bankless,即可享受BitKey九折优惠。

So download BitKey today and use promo code bankless to get 10% off of your BitKey.

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本期节目由BitKey赞助。

This episode has been sponsored by BitKey.

Speaker 0

旅行奖励变得比实际需要的复杂得多。

Travel rewards have gotten way more complicated than they need to be.

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你有会过期的积分、转点伙伴、禁兑日期,最后你还是会怀疑自己是不是真的划算。

You've got points that expire, transfer partners, blackout dates, and somehow you still end up wondering if you actually got a good deal.

Speaker 0

Coinbase的做法要简单得多。

Coinbase is taking a much simpler approach.

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当你通过Coinbase One旅行门户,使用Coinbase One卡预订航班、酒店、租车或度假租赁时,符合条件的旅行预订将获得5%的比特币返现。

When you book flights, hotels, rental cars, or vacation rentals through the Coinbase One travel portal using your Coinbase One card, you'll earn 5% in Bitcoin on eligible travel bookings.

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预订一张400美元的机票,你就能获得大约20美元的比特币返现。

Book a 400 flight, and you'll earn about $20 back in Bitcoin.

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没有积分图表,没有转点伙伴,没有兑换门槛,只有你可以持有或交易的比特币。

No reward charts, no transfer partners, no redemption gains, just Bitcoin that you can hold or trade.

Speaker 0

而且,使用Coinbase One卡进行的其他所有消费,最高可获得4%的比特币返现。

And every other purchase on your Coinbase One card can earn up to 4% back in Bitcoin.

Speaker 0

此外,新卡持卡人在开户后30天内消费满100美元,即可获得50美元的比特币奖励。

Plus new cardholders earn a $50 Bitcoin bonus after spending a $100 in their first thirty days.

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如果你近期有出行计划,可以查看节目说明中的链接,今天就看看你是否符合条件,而且不会影响你的信用评分。

If So you've got travel coming up, check out the link in the show notes and see if you're approved today with no impact on your credit score.

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或者直接访问coinbase.com/banklist。

Or just visit coinbase.com/banklist.

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条款适用。

Terms apply.

Speaker 0

更多信息请访问 coinbase.com/banklist。

That's coinbase.com/banklist for more information.

Speaker 0

8月4日,六位以太坊研究者——Jerome Dechachet、Justin Drake、Dapp Line、Pintail等人——提议修改ETH的货币政策,主要是关于ETH质押奖励的机制。

On August 4, six Ethereum researchers Jerome Dechachet, Justin Drake, Dapp Line, Pintail, and a few others proposed a change to ETH's monetary policy, mainly how ETH staking rewards work.

Speaker 0

这被称为“递减发行销毁”。

This is being called the tapered issuance burn.

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这个想法是,以太坊会向质押者支付质押ETH的奖励,但以太坊为ETH质押者支付的金额没有上限。

The idea is that Ethereum pays people, pays stakers for staking their ETH, but there's no cap on how much Ethereum pays for ETH stakers.

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无论总ETH供应量中有多少被质押,即使全部被质押,质押者仍然能获得正收益,这意味着永远都有激励去质押更多的ETH。

No matter how much of the total ETH supply gets staked, even if all of the total ETH supply gets staked, stakers will still earn a positive yield, which means that there is always an incentive to stake more ETH forever.

Speaker 0

所以人们担心,是的。

And so people are worried that yep.

Speaker 1

我能打断你一下吗?

Can I stop you?

Speaker 1

所以没有上限,但发行量是有曲线的。

So there's no cap, but there is a curve to issuance.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

质押的人越多,发行量就会下降。

Issuance does go down the more stakers that that come into the

Speaker 0

这不对。

into the That's that's not true.

Speaker 0

发行量总是会随着ETH质押量的增加而上升,只是新发行的速率会下降。

Issue always issuance always goes up the more ETH gets staked, the rate of new issuance goes down.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

就像是一个更小的比例。

A like a a a smaller proportionate amount.

Speaker 1

新发行的速率。

The the rate of new issuance.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

这样说才

That's the way to

Speaker 0

对。

say it?

Speaker 0

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 0

所以现在,我们有三分之一的ETH被质押了,但这一比例一直在持续上升。

So right now, we have a third of all ETH staked, but it there's been a perpetual march upwards.

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而这个提案提出了一个想法,就是我们不希望这个数字接近100%。

And this proposal, like, proposes the idea that we don't want that number to, you know, approach a 100%.

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我们不希望100%的ETH都被质押,但没有什么能阻止这种情况发生,因为总是有动力去质押更多的ETH,因为会有更多的ETH被铸造出来,以支付质押ETH的安全费用。

We don't want a 100% of ETH staked, but there's nothing to stop that from happening because there's always an incentive to stake more because more ETH will be minted to pay for the security of the ETH being staked.

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所以这个提案的做法是,以太坊会在质押者拿到奖励之前,先销毁掉其中的一部分。

And so what this proposal does is that Ethereum starts destroying, burning a slice of the rewards before stakers receive them.

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质押的供应量越多,被销毁的那部分也就越大。

The more of the supply the stake that stakes, the bigger the slice that is burned.

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这就叫作 ETH 目标机制。

So this is called ETH targeting.

Speaker 0

这之前被称为 ETH 目标机制,或者说,应该是质押目标机制。

This previously was called ETH targeting or excuse me, stake targeting.

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所以一旦质押的ETH达到总量的50%,也就是我们现在大约33%的水平,所有的奖励都会被销毁。

So once staking, ETH staking hits about half 50% of all ETH, and we're we're about 33% of all ETH right now, the entire reward gets burned.

Speaker 0

这意味着超过50%的质押比例后,质押几乎没有任何收益,进一步增加质押的动力也就基本消失了。

Meaning staking pays essentially nothing beyond 50% stake and the incentive to stake more ETH basically shuts off.

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因此,这实际上限制了超过50%之后继续质押ETH的动力。

And so this caps the incentive for staking ETH beyond 50 percent.

Speaker 0

比如在45%左右的时候,质押奖励就已经微乎其微了。

So at, like, 45%, the staking rewards is almost nothing.

Speaker 0

现在你只有大约5%的本应发放的质押奖励会付给质押者,到了50%就是零了。

You only have, like, 5% of these otherwise issued staking rewards being paid to stakers, and then at 50% is zero.

Speaker 0

所以对于今天正在质押的人来说,如果这个提案通过,实际效果就是他们的基础质押收益率会大致减半,从现在的约2.6%降到1.2%,如果这个变化现在实施的话。

So for people staking today, if this proposal were to go through, the practical effect would be that their base staking yield drops roughly in half from about 2.6% yield to 1.2% yield if this change were to go in right now.

Speaker 0

谁在推动这个提案,谁又反对呢?

Who is pushing this and who is against this?

Speaker 0

以太坊基金会和它的研究员们喜欢这个提案。

The EF and EF researchers like this proposal.

Speaker 0

这是普遍情况吗?

One of the Is that generally true?

Speaker 1

还是说只是那些名字出现在这个提案上的EF和研究圈子里的人?

Or is it just the the subset of EF and research types who have their names on this proposal?

Speaker 1

顺便说一句,Justin Drake就是其中之一。

By the way, Justin Drake is one of them.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得他没有公开表示支持,但他的名字确实在提案上。

So I don't think he said anything public in support about this, but he is named on the proposal.

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Speaker 1

所以

So

Speaker 0

他就是那个提案的作者。

that's He's on the he's authoring the proposal.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

但你的意思不是说所有的研究员和所有的——对。

But you're not saying it's like all of the researchers and all of the Yeah.

Speaker 0

我确实。

I've definitely.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,EF内部并没有达成共识。

I mean, there's no consensus inside of the EF.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 0

你说得对。

You're right.

Speaker 0

所以提出这个提案的人都是EF的研究人员,属于研究者类型。

So the people who are who have proposed this are all EF researchers and, like, the researcher type.

Speaker 0

有趣的是,反对这个提案的都是Dapp层的人。

The people who are against this are interestingly all the Dapp layer people.

Speaker 0

比如DeFi创始人,像Aave的Stani,以太坊的Mike Silagadze。

So DeFi founders like Stani from Aave, Mike Silagadze from Ethereum.

Speaker 0

Lido也反对这个。

Lido is against this.

Speaker 0

DC投资人作为社区成员,他非常反对这个。

DC investor, as a community member, he he is very anti this.

Speaker 0

所以基本上就是EF,大概少数几个EF研究人员。

And so he's basically EF about a handful of EF researchers.

Speaker 0

然后基本上,听起来

And then basically, sounds

Speaker 1

像是个很棒的提案。

like a great proposal.

Speaker 0

让我试着把两边的论点都过一遍。

Let me try and just like, run through the arguments for for

Speaker 1

两边的。

both sides.

Speaker 1

因为事情是这样的。

Because here's the thing.

Speaker 1

事情是这样的。

Here's the thing.

Speaker 1

你在过这些论点的时候,我真的很想弄明白。

As you're running through that, I I think I really want to understand.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

因为这个提案假设现在存在一些问题,而且这个问题很严重。

Because the proposal takes as a given that there is some problem right now and some problem with this.

Speaker 1

它还假设我们正在朝着100%的目标前进,越接近100%,我们遇到的问题就越多。

And it takes a given that we are on this march towards 100%, and the the closer we get to 100%, the more problems that we'll see.

Speaker 1

我觉得这个假设确实需要进一步强化。

I think that assumption really needs to be reinforced.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

那么作者们认为问题出在哪里呢?

So what do the authors say about the problem here?

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

那么支持减少发行量或者说目标发行的论点就是,以太坊在安全方面花了太多钱。

So so the the the pro case, the pro argument for tapering slash targeting is that Ethereum is overpaying for security.

Speaker 0

大体上来说,大家一直在讨论以太坊在安全上支出过高,所以我们应该降低发行量。

And as a broad strokes, Ethereum has been discussed that Ethereum is overpaying for security, so therefore we should reduce issuance.

Speaker 0

这种事情已经发生很多次了。

That has happened many times.

Speaker 0

在权益证明之前的工作量证明阶段,每个区块的奖励从五个以太币降到三个,再降到两个,一直到合并之前都是这样。

When we were in the proof of work phase, e issuance went from five Ether block down to three Ether block down to two Ether block before we had the merge.

Speaker 0

所以这有点先例,就是说,嘿,我们为安全付得太多了,那就少付点吧。

And so there's a little bit of precedent of, hey, we're overpaying for security, let's pay less for security.

Speaker 0

这其实就是经济效率的问题,也是让以太币更高效的问题。

And that's just a matter of like economic efficiency and making ether.

Speaker 0

这符合最低可行发行的社会契约。

It goes along the social contract of minimum viable issuance.

Speaker 0

就像,如果我们支持最低可行发行,那这就是那个意思。

Like, if we like minimum viable issuance, this is that.

Speaker 0

所以这是一个支持的理由。

So that's one pro argument.

Speaker 0

下一个支持的理由是,无限制的质押,也就是没有上限、没有约束的质押激励,会削弱普通以太币的货币属性,并且让网络中心化到流动性质押代币上。

The next pro argument is that unbounded staking, so a a capless, a constraintless amount of incentive to stake ETH erodes vanilla ETH's moneyness and centralizes the network on LSTs.

Speaker 0

所以如果有一亿个以太币被质押,你会看到像Lido质押到以太币,或者Rocket Pool之类的。

And so with 100 ETH staked, you're going to see like Leidos stake to ETH or like rocket pool or ETH.

Speaker 0

这些在以太坊经济中会成为以太币,因为普通以太币都会被质押掉。

Those will be ether in the Ethereum economy because of Vanilla ETH will all be staked.

Speaker 0

所以你会看到原生ETH逐渐消失,取而代之的是流动性质押衍生代币。

So you'll actually see a disappearance of Vanilla ETH, and it will be replaced by liquid staking derivative tokens.

Speaker 0

所以对以太坊经济来说,基本上就是Lido的stETH或者Rocket Pool的rETH,某种LST,而不是原生ETH。

And so as far as the Ethereum economy is concerned, basically, it's going to be Leidos staked ETH or Rocket Pool's R ETH, some sort of LST rather than Vanilla ETH.

Speaker 0

这样一来,网络就被这些流动性质押代币控制了,原生ETH就慢慢消失了。

And so that in that captures the network by these liquid staking tokens, and Vanilla ETH kind of disappears.

Speaker 1

而且在这种情况下,原生ETH相对于那些其他单位,确实会失去它的货币属性。

And there's no argument there under that that ETH would ETH Vanilla ETH would lose its money ness relative to those other units.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

这就像在美国经济中,我们不用美元,而是用国债之类的来交易。

It it'd be almost like rather than in The US economy, rather than us using the dollar, we're using like treasuries or something like that.

Speaker 1

甚至不是国债,而是用美国银行的货币市场基金来支付股票期权。

Or not even treasuries, we're using like Bank of America money markets in order to pay our stock options.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

嗯嗯。

Uh-huh.

Speaker 0

是的。

And yeah.

Speaker 0

而且,如果你只是想持有普通以太币,如果这个提案通过,持有普通以太币会更容易接受,而且不会因为持有普通以太币而被稀释那么多。

And so, like, this also just kind of if you are just trying to hold vanilla ether, it this allows if this proposal goes through, holding vanilla will just be much more palatable, and you won't get diluted nearly as much by holding vanilla ether.

Speaker 0

所以这是一个支持以太坊作为货币的论点。

And so it's a it's a pro ethos money change is is an argument.

Speaker 0

是的。

Is Yes.

Speaker 0

这是一个论点。

Like is an argument.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

还有最后一点,就像……就像

And then lastly, it's like it's like

Speaker 0

一个非常小的改动。

a a minimal change.

Speaker 0

其实没那么复杂。

It's really not that complicated.

Speaker 0

他们管这个叫可信方案。

They call it credible.

Speaker 0

它其实就是个永久不变的常数,其他大部分东西都保持原样。

It's just a permanent single constant that leaves most things intact.

Speaker 0

比如,MEV(最大可提取价值)不会变。

Like, MEV is not being changed.

Speaker 0

EIP-1559也不会改,现在大家把它包装成像是把合并后的货币架构给补全了似的。

EIP one five five nine is not being changed, and it's kinda being framed as, like, just completing the post merge monetary architecture.

Speaker 1

这是一个很小的技术改动。

It's a minimal, like, technical change.

Speaker 1

我们只需要改代码里的几个变量就能实现。

It's just like a few variables in the code we have to change to make this happen.

Speaker 1

比如说,从技术角度看,改动很小,但任何时候你动货币政策或发行量,嗯,这可不是小改动。

Like, saying it's a minimal change from a like, anytime you do anything to monetary, like, policy and issuance Yeah.

Speaker 1

这可不是小改动。

This is a it ain't a minimal change.

Speaker 1

这是一个相当大的社会变革,但他们说从技术角度看改动很小。

This is a pretty big social change, but they're saying it's minimal from a tech perspective.

Speaker 1

这不复杂。

It's not complicated.

Speaker 1

对。

Yes.

Speaker 1

系统里不会出现bug。

There's not going to be a bug in the system.

Speaker 1

实现起来挺简单的。

It's it's pretty easy to implement.

Speaker 0

对。

Yep.

Speaker 0

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 0

反对者认为,这实际上加速了它声称要解决的中心化问题。

The opposition argues that this actually just accelerates the centralization that it claims to fix.

Speaker 0

压缩收益、减少ETH质押者的发行量,会让边缘的ETH质押者更难。

So compressing yield, reducing the amount of issuance for ETH stakers makes it more difficult for the marginal ETH stakers.

Speaker 0

所以,单独质押者和家庭质押者会更难,因为他们不如Lido或Figment这样的工业级商业质押者高效。

So solo stakers and home stakers are going to have a harder time because they are less efficient than the industrial commercial stakers like Lido or Figment.

Speaker 0

所以,你只是

So Well, you just

Speaker 1

把他们的收入减半,但他们还有

cut their revenue in half, but they have

Speaker 0

同样的固定成本。

the same fixed costs.

Speaker 0

没错。

Exactly.

Speaker 0

所以那些真正优化运营、把固定成本降到最低的人,在这里会做得更好。

And so people who really op like, operationalize and minimize their fixed cost do better here.

Speaker 0

但是,那些业余的质押者,那些自己买硬件、自己承担所有费用的人,他们会被挤出去。这些就是家庭质押者、独立验证者。而以太坊作为一个社会契约和系统,一直维护着个人独立质押者的主权和权力。

But, know, the hobbyist staker, the people that carry their own hardware, you know, pay for pay for all the costs, Those people are getting pushed out, and that's going to be the home staker, the the solo validator, which as a social contract and as like a system, you know, Ethereum has always preserved the sovereignty and power of the individual solo staker.

Speaker 0

以太坊就是由这些人运行的。

That is like that's who runs Ethereum.

Speaker 0

以太坊不是由公司或机构创造的产品。

You know, Ethereum is not a product by corporations and institutions.

Speaker 0

它是用户为用户创造的产品,而这样做会让这一点变得更难实现。

It's a product by the user for the user, and this makes that harder.

Speaker 0

下一个论点是,质押收益是DeFi的基准利率。

The next argument is that staking yield is DeFi's base rate.

Speaker 0

所以,杠杆质押循环、在Aave上质押的LST抵押品,还有结构化产品、机构和财库配置,所有这些,加上质押收益本身,都是支撑起大量DeFi的核心基础。

So leveraged staking loops, LST collateral on Aave, you know, structured product, institutional and Trevor treasury allocations, all of that all the fact that staking yield is a thing is a pretty core primitive that holds up a lot of DeFi.

Speaker 0

把它降到零,会摧毁DeFi赖以建立的很多东西,也会减少DeFi里大量的以太币。

Tapering it towards zero collapses so much of what DeFi is built on and just reduces a lot of the ether in DeFi.

Speaker 0

所以,如果你的普通以太币没有收益,那你可以去DeFi里赚。

So if your vanilla ether isn't getting yield, well, you can get it in DeFi.

Speaker 0

而如果以太币没有收益了,我觉得,很多以太币就没有理由留在DeFi里了,DeFi的TVL会减少,整个行业也会变得不那么丰富。

And taking the yield away from ether, I think the argument is that a lot of ether would not have a reason to be in DeFi, and DeFi would just be have less TBL and be overall less rich as like a a sector.

Speaker 0

最后一点,是可信度和流程。

And then lastly, credibility and process.

Speaker 0

这就像发行量的争论。

This is just like the issuance debate.

Speaker 0

研究人员说,嘿,咱们赶紧推进吧,但只给了四十八小时的评论期,时间很紧。

There's like a forty eight hour comment period and aggressive timeline from the the researchers who are saying, like, yo, let's let's push this through.

Speaker 0

然后社区就说,对,但这也太快了。

And then the community is like, yeah, it's too too fast.

Speaker 0

而且以太坊的发行量本来就已经非常低了。

And then also just like issuance in Ethereum is all already extremely low.

Speaker 0

它是最低的链之一,如果不是最低的话。

It's one of the lowest, if not the lowest chain with low the lowest issuance.

Speaker 0

为什么我们还要再降低它呢?

Why are we trying to lower it anymore?

Speaker 1

这不是个问题。

This is not a problem.

Speaker 1

对。

Coin.

Speaker 1

它已经和比特币在运行了十二年之后的发行量一样低了。

It's it's as low as Bitcoin after, like, twelve years, you know, of of Bitcoin doing this.

Speaker 0

所以我们是不是在试图解决一个其实不是问题的问题?

So it's it's just are we trying to fix a problem that's not actually a problem?

Speaker 0

对。

Right.

Speaker 0

为什么说,完美是好的敌人。

Why the like, per like, perfect is the enemy of good.

Speaker 0

我们现在已经相当不错了。

We're pretty good here.

Speaker 0

为什么还要追求完美呢?

Why are we trying to be perfect?

Speaker 0

还有,模型模拟者也说,如果这些改变实施,我们低估了二阶效应。

And then also mod modelers of, saying that this is just like we under underestimate second order effects if this changes go through.

Speaker 0

我们并不真正了解二阶效应,这很危险,所以还是别动它了。

We don't really know the second order effects, and that is dangerous, And so let's just not touch it.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得这就是两方的观点。

So I feel like those are the two sides.

Speaker 1

这里还有一个我见过的子论点,我觉得也挺有道理,就是说,嘿。

There's another subargument here that I've seen, which I think is also good, which is like, hey.

Speaker 1

每次你打开调整货币和发行量旋钮的窗口,你就相当于重置了时钟,现在所有人都知道你的价值存储资产实际上可以被调整和改变。

Anytime you open the window to changing the dials on monetary and issuance, you kind of reset the clock, and now everyone knows your store value asset can actually be tweaked and changed.

Speaker 1

这就是古老的比特币2100万上限的论点,他们对以太坊的核心批评就是,你们会调整这些参数。

This is the ancient Bitcoin 21,000,000 argument, and their core criticism of Ethereum is, like, you guys move the dials.

Speaker 1

所以,每次你调整参数,就证明了参数是可以被调整的,也证明了背后有某种中心化的势力在操控。

And so, like, anytime you move the dials, you prove that the dials can be moved, and you prove that there's some sort of centralized cabal, you know, like, doing this.

Speaker 1

所以,如果你动了参数,就玷污了整个实验。

And so, like, if you move the dial, you sully the experiment at all.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

然后你的立场就变成了,我们现在就调几次。

And then you're in position is now we'll move it a few times.

Speaker 0

而且我觉得我们会把它调得更严格,对ETH持有者更有利。

And I think we'll move it to being more restrictive and beneficial to ETH holders.

Speaker 1

没错。

That's right.

Speaker 1

没错。

That's right.

Speaker 1

对,

That's

Speaker 0

我总是往那个方向想,不是总是倾向于减少发行量,而是增加发行量。

the Always one I in that direction, not like always in favor of less issuance, not more issuance.

Speaker 0

我不,我不认同那个论点。

I'm not I'm not into that argument.

Speaker 0

我认同的那个版本是,汤姆·李刚买了5%的以太坊,他的整个想法就是质押赚收益,而我们正要从他那里抢走这个。

I think the version of that argument that I do agree with is yo, Tom Lee just bought 5% of ETH and his whole entire idea is that he gets to stake it and get the yield and we're just rugging that from him.

Speaker 0

搞什么鬼?

What the fuck?

Speaker 0

所以,作为对社会契约的篡改,我认为这是非常合理的。

And so that as a adulteration of the social contract, I think is very valid.

Speaker 0

汤姆·李肯定会说,你们到底在搞什么?

And Tom Lee is gonna be like, what the fuck are you guys doing?

Speaker 0

如果这惹恼了汤姆·李,他把以太坊卖了怎么办?

What what if this pisses off Tom Lee and he sells the ether?

Speaker 0

不是因为Tom Lee担心你们乱动货币政策,而是因为他担心你们毁掉他投资的价值。

Not inherently because Tom Lee is like, I'm worried about you guys, like, tinkering with the monetary policy, but because I'm worried about you guys destroying the value of my investment.

Speaker 1

我其实觉得你可能低估了这一点,或者至少我把它看得很重。

I actually think that you might be underrating that or at least I rate that, like, much higher.

Speaker 0

我觉得调整货币政策这种操作。

I think that tinkering of the dials of monetary policy.

Speaker 1

我认为必须要有绝对的压倒性共识。

I think there has to be absolute overwhelming consensus.

Speaker 1

就像,任何发行量的改变都得像国会通过法案一样,要有99个参议员投赞成票才行。

Like, it has to be like a a bill going through congress with 99 senators voting yes for any issuance change to happen.

Speaker 1

而且尤其是在我们处于这个阶段,我同意这一点。

And especially when we're at this point of like I agree with that.

Speaker 1

我同意我们已经有了非常好的发行量。

I agree with already have, like, really good issuance.

Speaker 1

已经没问题了。

It's already fine.

Speaker 1

你们在解决什么问题?

What problems are you solve?

Speaker 1

我想我有点暴露了自己在这个辩论中的立场。

I guess I'm sort of revealing my hand of like, where I sit on this debate a little too much.

Speaker 1

但我确实相信比特币的观点,你必须固化货币政策。

But I guess I I really do believe the Bitcoin argument of, you gotta ossify that monetary policy.

Speaker 1

以太坊越快实现完全固化,而且没人去动它,因为它已经足够好了,这对货币属性和价值存储属性就越有利。

And the faster that Ethereum gets to complete ossification of it, and that no one touches it because it's, like, good enough, the better for the moneyness use case and the story value use case.

Speaker 1

我觉得双方都有意思的地方,然后我们可以聊聊我们看到的一些观点,你怎么想,我也许怎么想,就是双方都在为单独质押者说话,你知道,为了去中心化。

What I think is interesting about both sides, and then we could talk, like, about some of the takes that we've seen and what what you think and and maybe what I think, is both sides are speaking on behalf of the solo stakers, you know, of decentralization.

Speaker 1

这关乎单独质押者。

This is about the solo stakers.

Speaker 1

双方都在说,嘿。

Both sides are saying, hey.

Speaker 1

这对ETH的货币属性有好处。

This is good for the moneyness of ETH.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

所以支持推进的那一方说,嘿。

So the side that's saying, hey.

Speaker 1

我们得推进这个,他们说,是的。

We gotta push this forward is saying, yeah.

Speaker 1

我们这么做是因为ETH是货币。

We're doing this because ETH is money.

Speaker 1

而反对的那一方说,不。

And the side that says, no.

Speaker 1

不。

No.

Speaker 1

不。

No.

Speaker 1

不。

No.

Speaker 1

别这么做,因为你会扼杀ETH作为货币的能力,因为你在调整货币政策,这样会失去信誉。

Don't do this because you'll you'll kill ETH's ability to be money because you're you're dialing with a monetary policy, and you lose credibility that way.

Speaker 1

而且,在DeFi经济中,ETH就是货币。

And, also, ETH is money in the DeFi economy.

Speaker 1

如果因为质押收益下降而搞垮了DeFi经济,那ETH的货币属性也会受损。

You nuke the DeFi economy somehow because of staking yields going down, then you also lose moneyness there.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 1

所以,我觉得,如果从宏观来看,双方其实都非常看重ETH作为货币资产。

So it is I guess, if you zoom out refreshing that both sides really care about ETH as a monetary asset.

Speaker 1

所以,我觉得这是本期节目的一大收获。

So, I mean, that's a that's a win I take from this episode.

Speaker 1

他们只是在具体做法上有分歧。

They're just divided in terms of how to actually do this.

Speaker 1

那么,你看到社区里有哪些观点是他们喜欢的,或者有哪些我们还没提到的要点?

So what are some takes that you've seen that from around the community that they've enjoyed or or some points that we really didn't highlight yet?

Speaker 0

加密推特和以太坊推特上的大多数观点其实都来自反对阵营,因为回应这个提案是他们的立场。

Most of the takes on crypto Twitter, Ethereum Twitter have really just been from the anti camp because it's it's their position to react to this proposal.

Speaker 0

所以Stani说,以太坊不应该专注于游戏质押发行和削减质押奖励。

So Stani says, Ethereum should not focus on gaming staking issuance and cutting staking rewards.

Speaker 0

那不是以太坊需要解决的问题。

That is not the problem Ethereum needs to solve.

Speaker 0

优先事项是隐私、可扩展性和安全性。

Priorities are privacy, scalability, and security.

Speaker 0

收益变得不可预测,对任何机构买家来说都是一个负面因素,使得以太坊借贷策略大多不可行,以太坊不应该因为其增长而受到惩罚。

Yield becomes unpredictable, a negative factor for any institutional buyer making ETH borrowing strategies mostly unviable, Ethereum should not be punished for its growth.

Speaker 0

DC投资者说,发行量已经很低了。

DC investor says, issuance is already very low.

Speaker 0

质押收益现在是一个关键驱动因素。

Staking yield is now a key driver.

Speaker 0

可预测性很重要。

Predictability matters.

Speaker 0

不应该把单独质押者排除在外。

Solo stakers should not be priced out.

Speaker 0

专注于扩展。

Focus on scaling.

Speaker 0

EtherFi的Mike说,这在各个层面都令人失望。

Mike from EtherFi says disappointing on every level.

Speaker 0

EIP发布只提前了四十八小时通知。

EIP released with only forty eight hours notice.

Speaker 0

以太坊上的每个建设者都反对这个。

Every builder on Ethereum opposes this.

Speaker 0

这正好印证了以太坊批评者的观点,即网络是由一小群内部人士控制的。

This reinforces the Ethereum critic's position that the network network is run by a small group of insiders.

Speaker 0

我觉得这对我来说很有意思。

I think that has been interesting to me.

Speaker 0

就像,如果你构建一个ETH产品,一个像Aave或EtherFi这样的ETH存款产品,当然。

It's like, if you build a ETH product, an ETH deposit product like Aave or EtherFi Sure.

Speaker 0

你不喜欢这个。

You don't like this.

Speaker 0

没有一个在以太坊上做DeFi产品的人会喜欢这个,我觉得这是一个非常重要的信号。

No one no one who's building an ETH DeFi product likes this, and I think that is very important signal.

Speaker 0

而且我觉得,以太坊社区在2024年的EF危机中一直在努力强调这一点,就是请听听那些在以太坊上建设、让以太坊和以太币变得有价值的人的声音,比如Mike、Stani和Glido。

And I think this is something that, like, the Ethereum community has been, like, trying to elevate in the 2024, like, EF crisis of, like, please listen to the builders building on Ethereum and making Ethereum valuable and Ether valuable, and that is Mike and Stani and Glido.

Speaker 0

所以,这些人是有实际利益的,而有实际利益的人都在说不行。

And so, like, those people have these people have skin in the game, and the people with skin in the game are saying no.

Speaker 0

而以太坊的研究人员,你可以说他们可能喜欢象牙塔里的技术完美,但他们的实际利益不如Aave的Stani或以太坊的Mike,因为他们是研究人员。

And the ETH researchers, you can argue, maybe they they love the ivory tower, like, technical perfection, but they have less skin in the game than Stani from Aave or Mike from Ethereum because they're researchers.

Speaker 0

他们没有在这个生态系统的基础上建立业务。

They don't have businesses built on this ecosystem on top of this foundation.

Speaker 1

那你对此怎么看?

So what's your take on this?

Speaker 1

你觉得这是个好主意吗?

You you think it's a good idea?

Speaker 1

你觉得这是个坏主意吗?

You think it's a bad idea?

Speaker 1

如果由大卫来决定,你会投赞成票还是反对票?

If it was up to David, would you vote yay or nay?

Speaker 0

我的意思就是,基本上我刚才说的那些。

I mean, like, usually exactly what I just said.

Speaker 0

我没办法,真的没法凭良心对这个提案投赞成票,因为每一个DeFi开发者都在反对。

Like, I can't I'm I can't in good faith vote yay for this proposal when every single DeFi builder is saying no.

Speaker 0

要知道,DeFi是ETH作为货币资产实现价值变现的方式。

Like, it's DeFi is how ETH became monetized as a monetary asset.

Speaker 0

如果他们不满意,那我真的很难凭良心投赞成票。

And if they're not happy, then, like, it's it's hard to, in good conscience, vote yes for this.

Speaker 0

从技术纯粹性的角度来看,我喜欢这个提案,在理想情况下。

I like this proposal from a technical purity standpoint, like in a vacuum.

Speaker 0

当然。

Sure.

Speaker 0

我觉得这个提案挺好的。

I think this is a good proposal.

Speaker 0

如果没有DeFi和Tom Lee,以及我们所有的路径依赖,那还行,但我们确实有这些。

If we didn't have DeFi and Tom Lee and all of the path dependency that we have, but we do have that.

Speaker 0

所以这个提案要是几年前提出来就好了,六年前、七年前、八年前,基本上越早越好。

So this would have been a great proposal to have introduced like years ago, six years ago, seven years ago, eight years ago when like, as soon as possible, basically.

Speaker 0

也许这个提案的一个改进点是,不要直接从100%的ETH目标跳到50%。

Maybe maybe one improvement to the proposal is that let's not have this jump from 100% ETH targeting to 50% ETH targeting.

Speaker 0

也许我们可以用很长的时间来实施,比如十年。

Maybe we can implement it over a very long time, like a decade.

Speaker 0

所以,首先目标是100%,然后是99%,再是98%。

So, like, first, it targets a 100%, then it targets 99%, then it targets 98%.

Speaker 0

这样花十年时间慢慢接近50%。

And that takes ten years to approach 50%.

Speaker 0

这样就平滑过渡了。

So it smooths it out.

Speaker 0

但我觉得即使是DeFi也不会喜欢这个。

But I don't think even DeFi would really like that at all.

Speaker 0

所以我也同意你的观点,就是ETH,作为货币资产。

And so I also agree with your point It's like you it's it's ETH, the monetary asset.

Speaker 0

我们需要压倒性的共识才能改变这一点。

We need overwhelming consensus in order to change this.

Speaker 0

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 0

所以你们知道,我喜欢这个提案在理想情况下,但现实中有太多包袱,所以不能同意。

And so you guys know proposal I like the proposal in a vacuum, but there's too much baggage to say yes.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

我觉得我的立场是,即使在理想情况下,我可能也不喜欢这个提案。

I I think that my position is I don't even like the proposal in a vacuum probably.

Speaker 1

有意思。

Interesting.

Speaker 1

就像,作为白皮书里的一个假设,挺有意思的,比如,如果我们这么做会怎样?

Like, it's interesting as like a a hypothetical in a white paper, like, what if we did this?

Speaker 1

但我认为,要真正改变发行机制,你需要极其充分的理由,而我没有看到这些理由。

But I think you need overwhelmingly good reasons in order to actually change issuance, and I don't I don't see those reasons.

Speaker 1

比如,收益似乎不值得付出代价,不像合并那样。

Like, the benefit does not seem worth the cost as opposed to the merge.

Speaker 1

对吧?

Okay?

Speaker 1

非常明显。

Incredibly obvious.

Speaker 1

整个社区都同意,我们要从工作量证明发行转向权益证明发行,并相应调整发行政策。

Full community buy in that we were going to take proof of work issuance to proof of stake issuance and change issuance policy accordingly.

Speaker 1

那是出于技术原因。

There was a technical reason for that.

Speaker 1

有巨大的好处。

There was massive benefit.

Speaker 1

当时有压倒性的共识。

There was overwhelming consensus.

Speaker 1

这个提案连边都沾不上。

This doesn't even have anywhere near the mark.

Speaker 1

好处有点虚无缥缈,模糊不清,而且是次要的,我们根本不清楚。

Like, the the benefits are sort of ethereal and vague and second order, and we don't, like, know.

Speaker 1

但我还会想到另一个问题,就像奥卡姆剃刀测试一样,如果这个提案真的实施了,我会对ETH更乐观还是更悲观?

But the other thing I I go to is, like, just kind of an Occam test of just, would this if this got implemented, would this make me more bullish or more bearish on ETH?

Speaker 1

结论是更悲观。

And the conclusion there is more bearish.

Speaker 0

对,没错。

Like, yeah,

Speaker 1

如果这个提案真的被推出来并实施了,我也不会更乐观。

I would not be more bullish if this proposal was actually pushed out and implemented.

Speaker 1

就凭这一点,从我的角度看,这不太是个好主意。

And on that basis alone, it's it's kind of, it's not a good idea from my perspective.

Speaker 1

那么,还有一个问题,就是这件事最终能推进并真正落实的可能性有多大。

Now, yeah, there's another question, which is what's the probable ability that this goes forward and actually gets pushed, It gets moved through.

Speaker 1

我觉得这个可能性,基本上已经接近零了。

And I think that probability is, like, quickly approaching 0%.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得,我们可能连百分之五都不到,就是,我觉得这事儿成不了。

So I think we're, like, under five per like, we're just I don't think this is going anywhere.

Speaker 1

我觉得

I don't think

Speaker 0

这事儿成不了。

this is going anywhere.

Speaker 1

尤其是考虑到它得到的反响。

Particularly given the reception that it received.

Speaker 1

如果反响完全不同,如果大家情绪非常积极,那也许还有机会。

If it had a completely different reception, if there's overwhelming positive sentiment, then maybe it would have a shot.

Speaker 1

但现在它已经没戏了,我预测不会有任何发行量的变化。

But it is dead in the water at this point, and I I predict there will be no issuance changes.

Speaker 1

所以在某种程度上,有些人会说,看看以太坊,它又在改变发行政策了。

So at some level, some of people saying, look over Ethereum, it's just like, it's changing issuance policy again.

Speaker 1

看吧,它并不是去中心化的。

See, it's not decentralized.

Speaker 1

它被控制了。

It's captured.

Speaker 1

所有这些说法。

All these things.

Speaker 1

不。

No.

Speaker 1

这实际上就是去中心化的样子。

This is what decentralization actually looks like.

Speaker 1

这就是去中心化在进行的混乱过程。

This is the messy process of decentralization taking place.

Speaker 1

有一个提案被提出来,所有利益相关者、参与者、投资者、研究人员和应用开发者都参与讨论,但它还没有达到门槛。

There's a proposal, it's pushed out there, the rough consensus of all of the stakeholders and participants and investors and researchers and app builders weigh in on it, and it hasn't reached the threshold.

Speaker 1

所以这事就没成,被否决了,这其实挺健康的。

And so it doesn't happen, it gets shot down, and that's all healthy.

Speaker 1

我们刚就这事聊了很久,但我觉得这不会有什么结果。

So we just had a long conversation about it, but like, I don't think it's going anywhere.

Speaker 1

而且,你知道,如果这事让你看空,你也不用担心,因为我觉得这根本不会发生。

And, you know, if you if this would make you bearish, you don't have to worry about that because I don't it's just not gonna happen.

Speaker 0

我同意。

I would agree.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

就像我说的,对以太坊基金会不满是一回事,因为它不跟应用开发者和DeFi生态沟通。

Like I said, it's one thing to be frustrated about the EF for not being communicative to its app builders and its DeFi ecosystem.

Speaker 0

但推动一个所有DeFi开发者都说会损害他们业务的提案,那是另一回事。

It's another thing to push a proposal where the DeFi builders are all saying, this harms my business.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

而且我的业务就是让以太坊更有价值,从中赚钱。

And also my business is in the business of monetizing Ethan making making it more valuable.

Speaker 0

所以搞什么鬼。

So WTF.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

不过你会就这个举办一些辩论吗?

Are you gonna host some debates on this though?

Speaker 0

我本来想举办一场辩论的。

I was thinking about hosting a debate.

Speaker 0

但我想我只会和一些DeFi应用开发者聊聊他们的看法。

But instead I think I'm just going to talk to some of the DeFi app builders about their their opinions.

Speaker 0

因为我可以,其实很久以前我和Casper还有Onsgar做过一期节目。

Because I can we I did I did this episode actually with Casper and Onsgar forever ago.

Speaker 0

其实,这不算什么新提案。

Like, this isn't really a new proposal.

Speaker 0

这个提案到现在差不多有两年了。

This is this proposal is, like, two years old now.

Speaker 0

它当时是某种

It was some sort of

Speaker 1

定向提案。

targeting proposal.

Speaker 1

而且是在一些假设没有成立的时候提出的。

And particularly at a time where some assumptions didn't play out.

Speaker 1

还记得吗?

Remember?

Speaker 1

当时人们觉得Lido会主导一切,把所有质押都拿走。

Like, people were thinking that lido would sort of dominate everything and just, like, get all of the steak.

Speaker 1

我觉得人们假设的一些事情并没有完全实现。

And like, I think some of the things that people assume just like haven't played out fully.

Speaker 1

不过是的,我们之前已经讨论过这个话题了,对吧?

But yeah, we we have covered this train before, haven't we?

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

所以我已经从技术上讲完了支持的那一面。

And so so I've already technically done the the pro side of it.

Speaker 0

现在我要讲反对的那一面。

And so now I'm I'm gonna do the anti side of it.

Speaker 0

而且我能够很好地扮演支持方的角色,抛出一些有趣的论点,看看他们怎么应对。

And like, I can embody the pro argument well enough where like, I can throw my interesting, like angles at them, and they can see what I can see what they do with it.

Speaker 0

好了,我们继续讲Coldcard漏洞事件。

Alright, let's move on to the Coldcard exploit.

Speaker 0

有个叫乔纳森·古德曼的人发推说,7月29日,我的账户里有160万美元的比特币在Coldcard钱包被黑时被转走了。

So this is an individual named Jonathan Goodman who tweeted out, $1,600,000 in Bitcoin was drained from my account on July 29 in the Coldcard wallet hack.

Speaker 0

我的比特币是冷存储的。

My Bitcoin was in cold storage.

Speaker 0

我的密钥放在一个从未联网的保险箱里的Coldcard设备上。

My keys were on a Coldcard device kept in a safety deposit box that had never been connected to the Internet.

Speaker 0

这部分有点技术性,事情是这样的。

This part's nerdy, here's what happened.

Speaker 0

黑客在硬件钱包代码中用于生成助记词的部分发现了一个漏洞。

Hackers discovered a vulnerability in the part of the hardware wallet code used to create seed phrases.

Speaker 0

这让他们能够利用人工智能暴力破解助记词。

This allowed them to use AI to brute force guessing seed phrases.

Speaker 0

我当时在小屋,今天听说了这个黑客事件。

I I was at our cottage and heard about the hack today.

Speaker 0

我心想,这不可能影响到我。

No way this affects me, I thought.

Speaker 0

我登录了Wasabi,那个让我在线查看比特币钱包的软件。

I logged on to Wasabi, the software that lets me view my Bitcoin wallets online.

Speaker 0

我立刻看到了一排排红色的交易记录,都是提款,我知道从7月9日晚上9点36分到9点43分,我所有的钱包都被清空了。

Right away, I saw lines of red transactions, withdrawals, and I knew from 09:36 to 09:43PM on July 9, every wallet I ever had had been emptied.

Speaker 0

18.2个比特币没了,价值超过160万加元。

18.2 coin gone over $1,600,000 Canadian.

Speaker 0

也许最难受的是,我明明做对了一切。

Perhaps the hardest part about this is that I did everything right.

Speaker 0

我从未向任何人透露过我的助记词。

I never shared my seed phrase with anyone.

Speaker 0

我的设备从未接触过互联网。

My devices never touched the Internet.

Speaker 0

所有东西都放在多个保险箱和银行保险柜里。

Everything was kept in multiple safes and safety deposit boxes.

Speaker 0

但这一切都没用。

None of it mattered.

Speaker 0

哦,太惨了。

Oh, brutal.

Speaker 0

确实太惨了。

Absolutely brutal.

Speaker 1

所以,对于不熟悉的人来说,Coldcard有点像Ledger钱包或者Trezor,这些更流行的设备,我觉得主要是为比特币社区优化的。

So the Coldcard for those not familiar with it is sort of like a leisure ledger wallet or a treasure, some more popular devices, I think optimized really for the Bitcoin community.

Speaker 1

所以它的体积更小,但不支持其他币种。

So it's a smaller wallet in terms of footprint, but didn't support other coins.

Speaker 1

它更偏向比特币纯粹主义者的风格。

It was more the Bitcoin purist approach to it.

Speaker 1

当然,同样的故事也发生在,我不知道,可能成千上万的其他案例中。

And, of course, this same story played out in, I don't know, maybe 1000s of other cases.

Speaker 0

总共有1.3亿美元比特币从离线硬件钱包中被盗。

$130,000,000 total in Bitcoin being exploited from offline hardware wallets.

Speaker 1

其中一些,你知道,都是比较小的持有者。

And some of these, you know, are pretty like, smaller holders.

Speaker 1

当然,这些都是散户投资者,他们做了比特币爱好者应该做的事,去银行化,也就是,不是你的钥匙,就不是你的加密货币。

Of course, these are retail investors, and they're doing the thing that Bitcoiners are supposed to do, going bankless, can do, which is like, not your keys, not your crypto.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

不是我的钥匙,不是我的加密货币。

Not not my keys, not my crypto.

Speaker 1

我会保管一些钥匙。

I will have custody of some keys.

Speaker 1

那是他们决定要做的。

That's what they decide to do.

Speaker 1

他们用了硬件钱包,结果还是被掏空了。

And they use a hardware wallet, and still it gets drained.

Speaker 1

也许我们来具体聊聊这里到底出了什么问题。

May maybe let's talk about what went wrong here specifically.

Speaker 1

原帖提到,问题出在生成助记词时使用的随机性上。

So the original poster said something to do with the way randomness that the seed phrase was generated.

Speaker 1

Coldcard 到底哪里出了问题?

What went wrong in the Coldcard?

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

所以,对于助记词来说,助记词在理论上有很大的随机性,也就是说,有非常多的可能组合,即使使用人工智能,也无法全部尝试,因为创建助记词或私钥的可能方式比宇宙中的原子还要多。

So with a with a with a seed phrase, a seed phrase has theoretical randomness as in, like, there are so many different possible combinations that even with AI, there's no way to to try all of them because there's more possible ways to create a seed phrase or a private key than there are, like, atoms in the universe.

Speaker 0

这就是比特币的理论安全性。

Like, that's a theoretical security Bitcoin.

Speaker 0

没错。

Right.

Speaker 0

显然,Coldcard生成助记词的方式在随机性上并不完美,也就是说,它的随机数生成存在某种缺陷或漏洞,使得人工智能能够检测到那种模式,从而减少需要处理的随机性范围。

Apparently, the way that Coldcard was generating seed phrases was imperfect in its randomness, as in it had, like, a a a kink or a flaw in its randomness generation that allowed for AI to, like, detect that pattern and reduce the scope of how much randomness it would need to do.

Speaker 0

这其实让我想起,我以前读过一本关于密码学的书。

And this is actually just like I once upon a time read a book on ciphers.

Speaker 0

你可能会喜欢。

You would actually like it.

Speaker 0

我应该把那本书推荐给你。

I should send it to you.

Speaker 0

而且,破解密码的首要方法就是随机数生成不够完美、不够精确,存在缺陷,然后被某种模式分析利用。

And like, the number one way to break a cipher is that there is an imperfect, imprecise way of generating randomness, and there's like a a flaw, and that gets exploited by some some pattern analysis.

Speaker 1

就像某种弱熵。

Like some kind of weak entropy.

Speaker 1

所以无论何时生成某种私钥,都必须有真正的随机性。

So whenever you're generating a private key of some form, you have to have actual true randomness.

Speaker 1

完美的随机性。

Perfect randomness.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

有很多方法可以实现这一点。

There are many ways to do this.

Speaker 1

这并不是什么未知的事情。

It's not like an unknown thing.

Speaker 1

只是显然Coldcard钱包。

It was just apparently the Coldcard wallet.

Speaker 1

它有一个随机数生成器,本来要好得多,但实际上并没有被启用。

It had a a random number generator that was, like, much better, but it was not actually switched on.

Speaker 1

所以它反而使用了这种弱得多的随机性。

So it was using this much weaker form of randomness instead.

Speaker 0

他们不知道这一点。

They didn't know this.

Speaker 1

它没有被……我不知道,就是没被启用。

They it wasn't in I don't know, wasn't switched on.

Speaker 1

他们用的是较弱的方法,而不是

They were using the weaker method rather

Speaker 0

更强的那个

than stronger

Speaker 1

他们其实有的那个。

that they actually had.

Speaker 1

所以这意味着,所有在那个时期,比如2021年及以后,使用Coldcard钱包的人,实际上生成的私钥都可能被某个攻击者猜出来,那种攻击者并不是无法进行暴力破解的。

And so that means everyone who used a cold card cold card wallet from this time period from like, you know, 2021 and beyond, actually generated private keys that could be guessed by some attacker, some sort of that was not impervious to a brute force attack.

Speaker 1

这就是现在正在发生的事情。

And that's what's happening right now.

Speaker 1

而且这种攻击已经一波接一波了,黑客们专门找Coldcard钱包,锁定目标后,用AI来猜助记词。

And there have been waves of these attacks, right, where, you know, hackers are just looking for Coldcard wallets, finding that profile, and then guessing at the seed phrase using AI to do that.

Speaker 1

一旦猜中了,就把钱包里的钱全转走。

And then once they do, they drain the wallet.

Speaker 0

太狠了。

Brutal.

Speaker 0

我们其实不知道黑客是谁。

Is this We don't really know who the hackers are.

Speaker 0

显然,我觉得大家第一反应都会想到朝鲜。

Like, obviously, I think everyone's first reaction is North Korea.

Speaker 0

但我们并没有证据表明是朝鲜干的。

We don't really have any evidence that it's North Korea.

Speaker 1

到这个时候,任何人都可能下手,尤其是这件事被公开之后,谁想试都能去试,然后就真的去做了。

It could be anyone at this point, especially after this gets publicized, then anyone who wants to go try to do this can, like, then go do this.

Speaker 1

我觉得我们应该用其他几件事来结束这个话题。

I think we should tie this off with a few other things.

Speaker 1

一个是这个问题在Trezor和Ledger钱包以及更流行的钱包中不存在。

One is this problem does not exist in the Trezor ledger wallets and the more popular wallets.

Speaker 1

他们后来已经发布并强调了他们的随机数是如何生成的,所以这不是其他一些硬件钱包中存在的缺陷。

They have since, you know, released and emphasized how their randomness is actually generated, so it's not a flaw that happens in some of these other hardware wallets.

Speaker 1

所以如果你用这些钱包,应该是安全的。

So should be, like, safe if if you're using one of those.

Speaker 1

我想另一件事是,这是否对自我质押和自我托管提出了一个根本性的问题,抱歉。

I guess the other thing, though, is does this pose an existential question as to, like, self staking and self custody or sorry.

Speaker 1

不是自我质押。

Not self staking.

Speaker 1

是自我托管,总的来说。

Self custody in general.

Speaker 1

所以如果你仍然信任硬件钱包制造商来处理这类事情,比如正确生成私钥,并正确执行操作。

So if, like, you're still trusting the hardware wallet manufacturer with this type of thing to, like, generate private keys correctly, and to do things correctly.

Speaker 1

我觉得这算是一个警钟,就算你在自我保管方面做得滴水不漏,还是可能受到这种攻击。

Like, I guess it's a wake up call that you can do everything right from a self custody perspective, and still be vulnerable to this.

Speaker 1

有人说这会让大家都把比特币转到ETF或者交易所,因为在那里这类攻击就不会发生。

Some people are saying this will cause everyone to move their Bitcoin to ETFs or to put it on exchanges where these sorts of attacks aren't possible.

Speaker 1

大卫,你觉得这是自我保管的终结吗?

Do you think this is the end of self custody, David?

Speaker 1

你觉得是不是太难了?

Do you think it's just, like too hard?

Speaker 1

问题太多了。

There's too many problems with it.

Speaker 1

以后大家都不愿意自己保管,全都交给托管机构。

And people choose not to do this moving forward, and it'll all go into custodial providers.

Speaker 0

这周我和一个朋友吃午饭,她告诉我她在某家公司工作,有人给她介绍了一个联系人,让她去聊聊。

I was getting lunch with a friend this week, and she told me that she was working at a company and somebody connected her with a contact that they wanted her to talk to.

Speaker 0

他们开了几次会,建立了信任,然后让她下载了Obsidian,就是你我都在用的那个软件。

And they took a few meetings and built some trust, got them to download Obsidian, which is a a thing that you use and I use.

Speaker 0

但那个Obsidian是被人动过手脚的版本。

But it was a it was a borked version of Obsidian.

Speaker 0

所以三次会议之后,她下载了它,结果她浏览器扩展里的钱全被偷了。

So after three meetings, she downloaded it, and it stole all of her money in her in her browser extension.

Speaker 1

你说真的?

Are you serious?

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我提这个的原因是,他们用AI在通话中伪装自己,然后实施这个攻击。

And the reason why I bring this up is because they were using AI to fake themselves on the call and and to to run this exploit.

Speaker 0

所以,这里的共同点就是AI。

And so, like, the common denominator here is AI.

Speaker 0

AI已经成了大头,而且那不是什么数学上的小错误。

AI has been just, the big and and that wasn't imperfect math.

Speaker 0

那是社会工程学攻击,但确实是AI辅助的。

That was social engineering, nonetheless AI assisted.

Speaker 0

而且,你知道,现在大家不敢把钱放在DeFi里,就是因为AI。

And, you know, AI is the reason why people are scared to have their money in DeFi at the moment.

Speaker 0

AI正在动摇自我保管的根基。

Like, AI is shaking the foundations of self custody.

Speaker 0

这确实让人害怕。

And that that's scary.

Speaker 0

而且,因为AI,现在选择自我保管和去银行化的人可能是2021、2022年以来最少的。

And like, there's probably the the fewest self custody and the fewest bankless people since 2021, 2022 because of AI.

Speaker 0

而且,用AI恶意找漏洞似乎比用AI防御性地修补漏洞要容易得多。

And it's there's seemingly more holes to find using AI maliciously than it is easier to, like, patch them using AI to to be defensive.

Speaker 0

所以,是的,老兄。

And so, like, yeah, dude.

Speaker 0

这真是自我保管史上最黑暗的日子。

It's like the darkest days for self custody ever.

Speaker 0

不管你怎么想保护自己,AI总能找到办法,不管是利用完美的随机性,还是你的朋友不小心把你连到了错误的Telegram账号,因为名字看起来有点像,他们没仔细检查。

Like, no no no matter how you want to secure yourself, like, AI can find a way there, whether it's, like, exploiting perfect randomness or your friends accidentally connect you to the wrong Telegram account because, like, the name looks kinda similar and they were they weren't checking.

Speaker 1

所以现在,攻击能力已经超过了防御能力,而且还在不断发现漏洞。

So right now, the the the attack abilities are exceeding the defense abilities right now and just finding vulnerabilities.

Speaker 1

所以,

So

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

不管这种情况要持续多久才能恢复,因为一旦失去所有钱,那真是直击心灵深处。

Whether that continues long time to recover from that because that is they like, losing all of your money strikes straight into the heart of your emotions.

Speaker 0

而且一旦发生这种事,就没人愿意再去搞自我托管了。

And, like, once it does that, then, like, no one want no one wants to go doing self custody.

Speaker 0

就像那个家伙,他做对了所有事情,结果还是损失了160万美元。

And, like, it's like this guy, the this guy that lost $1,600,000 of his of it after doing everything right.

Speaker 0

你觉得他还会再去碰自我托管吗?

Like, do you ever going to do self custody ever again?

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

对。

Right.

Speaker 1

而且,我觉得,从某个角度看,如果Coldcard当初做对了而不是做错了,这件事完全可以避免。

And, like, I guess, from one perspective, this could totally have been avoided if Coldcard did things the right way instead of doing it the wrong way.

Speaker 1

但在另一个层面上,一个普通人

But at another level, like, what is an individual's

Speaker 0

应该怎么做呢?

supposed to do?

Speaker 1

比如,我是不是得仔细分析一下我买的硬件钱包的随机数是怎么生成的,才能确保它真的安全可靠?

Like, am I am I supposed to, like, analyze exactly how the randomness was like, you know, for the hardware wallet that I purchased, how that was generated, in order to feel safe that it's like actually working?

Speaker 1

这对普通人来说根本不可行。

Like, that's just not feasible for the average person.

Speaker 1

所以,是的,这确实是个大坑。

So, yeah, it's it's definitely a big pothole here.

Speaker 1

希望情况能有所好转。

And hopefully hopefully, things turn around a little bit.

Speaker 1

但就目前而言,如果你在用Coldcard,那当然,给你的建议就是赶紧离开这个钱包。

But for now, do not if you are using Coldcard, of course, the the message is get off of that wallet.

Speaker 0

可以换个

Could do something

Speaker 1

别的。

else.

Speaker 1

你的资产换个地方放。

Your assets do something else.

Speaker 1

希望攻击能平息下来,大家也能顺利转移。

And we'll we'll hopefully, the attacks subside and people are able to migrate.

Speaker 0

好,我们继续。

Alright, let's move on.

Speaker 0

我们还要聊几件事。

We're gonna talk about a few more things.

Speaker 0

我们得聊聊Clarity Act,在Polymarket上看起来不太乐观,存活概率只有十几%。

We got to talk about Clarity Act not looking good on a lifeline in the teens probability on Polymarket.

Speaker 0

我们要聊聊这个。

We're gonna talk about that.

Speaker 0

我们要聊聊Uniswap的流动性池。

We're gonna talk about Uniswap pools.

Speaker 0

Pools.trade,是的。

Pools.trade is yes.

Speaker 0

Pools.trade是他们的新产品,我要告诉Ryan关于Uniswap新代币发布平台他需要知道的一切。

Pools.trade is their new product or I'm gonna tell Ryan exactly what he needs to know about Uniswap's new token launch pad.

Speaker 0

然后还有,Cloudflare。

And then also, Cloudflare.

Speaker 0

Bankless的听众如果听过我们和Matthew Prince的那期节目,就会知道,Cloudflare正在为任何想要的人推出加密钱包。

Bankless listeners know this if they listen to the our episode with Matthew Prince, but Cloudflare is introducing crypto wallets for anyone who wants it.

Speaker 0

他们在做什么?

What are they doing?

Speaker 0

他们在做什么?

What are they doing?

Speaker 0

我们找到了答案。

We got the answers.

Speaker 0

我们会聊所有这些,还有更多。

We're gonna talk about all that and more.

Speaker 0

但首先,我们要聊聊一些很棒的赞助商,是他们让这个节目得以继续。

But first, we're gonna talk about some of these fantastic sponsors that make the show possible.

Speaker 0

市场不是单一资产在动。

Markets don't move one asset at a time.

Speaker 0

今天是比特币,明天是英伟达,然后是黄金,接着是标普500。

One day, it's Bitcoin, the next, Nvidia, then gold, and then the S and P.

Speaker 0

但大多数交易者还是在不同的平台、不同的账户、不同的资金池里管理自己的投资组合。

But most traders are still managing their portfolio across different platforms, different accounts, and different pools of capital.

Speaker 0

BITKEY刚刚改变了这一点。

BITKEY just changed that.

Speaker 0

新的股票2.0产品让你可以直接用USDT交易代币化股票,而且就在你平时用来做加密交易的同一个应用里。

New stocks two point o product lets you trade tokenized equities directly with USDT, all inside the same app you already use for crypto.

Speaker 0

这不仅仅是另一个代币化股票产品。

This is not just another tokenized stock product.

Speaker 0

Stocks 2.0 围绕更深的流动性、更快的执行速度和市场上最低的费用设计,仅为0.04%,并提供与标的股票1:1的经济敞口。

Stocks two point o is designed around deeper liquidity, faster execution, and the lowest fees on the market at just point zero four percent and one to one economic exposure to the underlying stock.

Speaker 0

股息、股票分割和其他公司行为会自动反映,帮助你的持仓与你真正想要敞口的资产保持一致。

Dividends, stock splits, and other corporate actions are reflected automatically, helping your position stay aligned with the asset you actually want exposure to.

Speaker 0

一个平台,一个账户,多个市场,加密货币、股票、大宗商品等等,都可以用USDT访问。

One platform, one account, multiple markets, crypto equities, commodities, and more, all accessible with USDT.

Speaker 0

BITKEY。

BITKEY.

Speaker 0

更聪明地交易。

Trade smarter.

Speaker 0

今天就通过节目说明中的链接开始交易。

Start trading today through the link in the show notes.

Speaker 0

这不是投资建议。

This is not investment advice.

Speaker 1

有个好消息。

Some exciting news.

Speaker 1

我们正在推出一个新播客,帮助大家理解加密货币周期,以及如何应对。

We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how to navigate it.

Speaker 1

我认识的最好的加密货币周期投资者,他叫迈克尔·纳托。

The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael Nato.

Speaker 1

他运营着DeFi报告。

He runs the DeFi report.

Speaker 1

就是这个人,在10:10价格下跌之前给我发了卖出提醒。

This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the 10:10 price drop happened.

Speaker 1

他的周期分析一直非常准确。

His cycle analysis has been absolutely on point.

Speaker 1

我关注他好几年了。

I've been following him for years.

Speaker 1

今年,我们开始每周录制播客节目。

And this year, we started recording weekly podcast episodes.

Speaker 1

每一集我们都会聊他的投资组合、他持有什么、市场结构、入场目标、比特币和以太坊的公允价值,以及我们现在处于周期的哪个阶段。

Each one, we get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure, entry targets, fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether, and where we are in the cycle.

Speaker 1

每周三都会发布新的一集。

There's new episodes that are released every Wednesday.

Speaker 1

每集三十分钟。

They're thirty minutes.

Speaker 1

时间不长。

They're short.

Speaker 1

内容紧凑。

They're punchy.

Speaker 1

我觉得这轮加密货币周期比大多数周期都更难把握,所以让我们一起应对吧。

I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most, so let's do it together.

Speaker 1

去订阅这个播客吧。

Go subscribe to this podcast.

Speaker 1

无论你在哪里收听播客,YouTube、Apple、Spotify,都可以搜索“DeFi报告”,或者查看节目说明里的链接。

Search the DeFi report wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or find a link in the show notes.

Speaker 1

现在有一集新的节目在等着你。

There's a new episode waiting for you now.

Speaker 0

Uniswap昨天为pools.trade推出了一个24小时的倒计时。

Uniswap introduced a twenty four hour countdown yesterday for pools.trade.

Speaker 0

他们花了大概27个小时,一开始有点波折,但最终推出了pools.trade,这是Uniswap自己的原生代币发行平台。

It took him like twenty seven hours, they had a little bit of a shaky start, but they introduced pools that trade, which is Uniswap's own native token launchpad.

Speaker 0

就像pump.fun一样,pump.fun就是为那些想做pump.fun的人准备的。

Like like pump fun is pump fun for what you just want is doing pump fun now.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

而且我承认以太坊上有很多代币发行平台。

And I granted there are so many token launch pads on Ethereum.

Speaker 0

这并不新鲜,但新鲜的是Uniswap正在垂直化,深入到实际的代币创建机制。

This is not a new thing, but it is new that Uniswap is going verticalizing and going down to the actual token creation mechanism.

Speaker 0

嗯。

Mhmm.

Speaker 0

所以他们有几种方式来发行代币,几种不同的机制。

And so they have a couple ways to launch a token, a couple of different mechanisms.

Speaker 0

两种方式最终都会进入一个Uniswap v4池,固定供应量为10亿个代币。

Both end up in a Uniswap v four pool with a fixed 1,000,000,000 supply of tokens.

Speaker 0

所以有一种是众筹发行代币。

So there's the crowd launch token.

Speaker 0

这是一种四小时的TWAP拍卖,目的是让捆绑变得困难,因为模因币代币发行平台的一个大问题是,有人会捆绑一堆钱包,在开盘时拥有大约30%的供应量。

So that's a four hour t wap auction to help make bun like, just bundle resistant because, like, a big problem in the meme coin token launchpad world is that, like, one person will bundle up a bunch of wallets and own, like, 30% of the supply at the top on your head.

Speaker 0

所以这在一定程度上解决了这个问题,然后它会在1万美元的完全稀释估值时毕业,或者如果这个1万美元的市值没有达到,就会退款给所有人。

So that kinda fixes that, and then it graduates at a $10,000 fully diluted valuation, or it refunds everyone if that's the $10,000 market cap doesn't get launched.

Speaker 0

或者有即时发行,就像没有规则,狂野西部,风险自担。

Or there's instant launch, which is just like, no rules, wild west, like, buy at your own risk.

Speaker 0

它立即上线,经典的联合曲线风格。

It's live immediately classic bonding curve style.

Speaker 0

所以,是的,Uniswap已经发布了一个代币发行平台。

And so, yeah, Uniswap has released a a token launch pad.

Speaker 0

看起来跟市面上其他代币发行平台差不多,但Uniswap推出这个还是挺让人兴奋的。

Looks pretty similar to all the other kinda like token launch pads out there, but it is kind of exciting that Uniswap is launching it.

Speaker 0

我觉得有意思的一点是,这个平台收的手续费会用来买回代币本身。

And so there is a I think one of the interesting things is that the the fees collected by this go back into buying the token itself.

Speaker 0

而且它宣传说交易量更大。

And so there's and there's it's, like, touted as, like, more volume.

Speaker 0

这对代币价格更有利,而不是从流动性池里抽走。

It's even more beneficial for the price of the token as opposed to that coming out of the pool of the liquidity pool.

Speaker 0

它会回到Uniswap池和代币本身。

It goes back into the Uniswap pool in the token itself.

Speaker 0

所以这对用户来说是个激励。

And so it was an incentive for people to use it.

Speaker 0

你对此有什么反应?

What's your reaction?

Speaker 0

你怎么看?

What do you think?

Speaker 1

就像Robinhood一样,Beam Coins让他们意识到了这种可能性。

Just like Robinhood, Beam Coins kind of woke them up to this possibility.

Speaker 1

我的意思是,那是一种反应。

I mean, that that's one reaction.

Speaker 1

另一种反应就是,Uniswap似乎又在更努力地推新东西了,我在想这是为什么。

The other reaction is just it does seem like Uniswap is shipping, like, harder again, and I'm wondering kind of why.

Speaker 1

我知道他们一直在幕后做很多事情,但感觉像是监管上的阴霾可能已经散去,他们又开始尝试新产品和实验了。

I mean, I know they were always shipping, doing a lot in the background, but it feels like some regulatory malaise has maybe lifted, and they are getting back to trying new products and experiments again.

Speaker 0

这就是你想说的吗?

That that Is that what you're saying?

Speaker 0

最近Uniswap那边感觉确实不一样了。

It kinda feels different in Uniswap land these days.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

因为昨晚我和一些加密货币的朋友一起玩。

Because I was talking to some I was hanging out with some crypto friends last night.

Speaker 0

然后我们都说了同样的话,就是海登过去两个月的推文,感觉更像是对Uniswap的创始人模式,而且他们发布了更多东西。

And like, we all said the same thing is like, Hayden's tweets for the last two months, feel more like founder Modi, about Uniswap, and they're, like, shipping more things.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我同意。

I I would agree.

Speaker 0

我觉得也许在某个时候,就像你的资金库的安全垫用完了,你意识到你需要产生正面的经济效益,而Uniswap作为一个组织,过去一直是个相当大的组织。

I I think maybe at some point, just like the the safety nest of your treasury kind of, like, runs out and you realize that you need to, like, generate positive economics and, like, Uniswap as an org has been a pretty big organization in the past.

Speaker 0

而且,再次说到你提到的Robinhood的推出,如果你看Robinhood的指标,Uniswap在DEX交易量中的主导地位是巨大的。

And, again, also to your point with the launch of Robinhood, if you go to the Robinhood metrics, like, Uniswap dominance in DEX volume is massive.

Speaker 0

所以Robinhood链上排名第一的DEX是Uniswap v3。

So the number one DEX on Uniswap is on Robinhood chain is Uniswap v three.

Speaker 0

排名第二的DEX是Uniswap v2,排名第三的是Uniswap v4,这三者合计占据了Robinhood链上DEX交易量的99%。

The number two DEX is Uniswap v two, and the number three DEX is Uniswap v four, and that's to combined 99% of DEX volume on Robinhood Chain.

Speaker 0

哇。

Wow.

Speaker 0

这对他们来说是个大胜利。

That's a big win for them.

Speaker 0

在Robinhood链上占据主导地位,而且这确实会进入Uni代币的费用销毁机制。

Dominating on Robinhood Chain, and that actually does go into the Uni token fee burn.

Speaker 0

所以随着Uniswap在Robinhood链上的推出和成功,协议回购并销毁的Uni数量因为Robinhood链而翻倍了,尤其是因为meme币。

And so with the launch and success of Uniswap on Robinhood Chain, the amount of Uni being bought back and burned by the protocol has doubled because of Robinhood Chain, particularly because of meme coins.

Speaker 0

因为Robinhood上的meme币活动占了整个加密市场meme币活动的50%,而所有这些交易量都在Uniswap上。

And so because meme coin activity on Robinhood is is 50 of all meme coin activity in crypto as a total, and all that volume is on Uniswap.

Speaker 0

所以Uniswap销毁Uni代币的速度是其他所有链加起来的两倍。

And so Uniswap is burning Uni tokens twice as fast versus, like, all the other chains combined.

Speaker 0

所以你可以看到,Uniswap在这里看到了价值,比如收入在增加。

And so you can see, like, oh, Uniswap sees value here, like, revenues coming in.

Speaker 0

这很有效。

This is working.

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