摘要：特朗普瞄准格陵兰 | 达沃斯拥抱加密货币 | 纽交所上链 | 量子威胁比特币 | Farcaster + Lens 被收购

那我们从中得到了什么？

And what do we get from that?

我们能得到的是印制免费货币，但国内却没有任何制造业产品出口到中国。

Well, we get to print free money, but we don't have any domestic manufacturing that goes and is exported to China.

这种弱点在新冠疫情期间暴露无遗——我们连口罩都没有，整个供应链才意识到，我们完全依赖于外国势力。

The weaknesses of that show up during COVID, wherein we don't have any masks, and like all of our supply chains are realized that like it's completely dependent on foreign powers.

然后特朗普就基于这一点当选了，所有这些摇摆州，比如宾夕法尼亚，整个制造业带都从蓝变红，选出了特朗普，接着特朗普做了这一切，黄金价格不就飙升了吗？

And then Trump gets elected based off of that, like all of these swing states, Pennsylvania, like the all the manufacturing belt, all swing from blue to red, elect Trump, and then Trump does all of this stuff, and then gold pumps, didn't they?

回头看2020年，很多事情其实挺清楚的。

Like hindsight twenty twenty, like, kinda makes a lot of sense.

这周我看到一个梗，我觉得它很好地总结了这一点，你说的都很有道理，瑞安。

There was a meme that I saw this week that I kinda think summarizes this, like, you everything you said was very smart, Ryan.

这是那个‘用蜡笔解释’的梗。

Here's the explain it like I use crayons meme.

对于正在收听的朋友们，这是一个世界地图，上面画了三个位于世界不同区域的方块。

So for those listening, it is a map of the world and there are three squares drawn in different regions of the world.

美洲，你听说过最近刚提出的‘唐·罗 doctrine’吗？

The Americas, have you heard of the the thing that's been coined recently called the Don Roe doctrine?

是的。

Yeah.

门罗主义基本上说的是，西半球是我们的地盘，别插手。

That Monroe doctrine was basically saying, like, Western Hemisphere is is our Don't touch it.

这就像我们的天命，就是要控制这片区域。

Like, that's that's our it's our manifest destiny to to control that.

对。

Yeah.

所以现在从门罗主义升级为‘唐·罗 doctrine’，因为唐纳德·特朗普。

So being updated from the Monroe doctrine to the Don Roe doctrine because of Donald Trump.

所以我们有美洲，你知道的，用一支蜡笔在美洲画个大圈，那就是唐纳德·特朗普的地盘。

So we have The Americas, you know, draw a big crayon circle around The Americas, that's Donald Trump land.

然后你有俄罗斯、乌克兰和东欧的上半部分，那是‘先生’

Then you have the upper quadrant of like Russia and Ukraine and Eastern Europe, and that's Mr.

普京的。

Putin's.

然后是非洲、中国、澳大利亚和马来西亚，那是习近平的。

And then you have like Africa and China and Australia and Malaysia, that is Xi Jinping's.

这三大强国构成了这个世界，世界就是这样运作的，这三个地理区域就是新的世界秩序下的势力范围，大家都要服从。

And these are the three powers, and this is the world, and this is how the world operates, and you know, this is this this are the three geographic domains and get in line under this new world order.

这和你所说的相符吗？

Is that kind of aligned with what you're saying?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这本质上是回归到权力，回归到权力掮客，而不是基于规则的国际秩序。

I think that's, it it basically like, rather than rules based international order, it's back to power, back to power brokers.

马克·卡尼其实也承认了这一点。

And this is, like, Mark Carney was acknowledging this.

你画的这张地图的问题在于，欧洲并不在其中，还有一些中等国家，比如加拿大，或者我们谈谈印度。

Like, the thing about this map that you're drawing is just like, Europe is not, and some of the middle middling countries, Canada or, like, even in India, let's talk about in India.

嗯。

Mhmm.

它们也有其他选择。

They have alternatives as well.

对吧？

Right?

嗯。

Mhmm.

它们本身就是独立的行动者，能够根据这种世界划分方式采取行动，我预计它们未来会这么做。

And they they are actors in and of themselves, they can they can make maneuvers based on this type of a a chop up of the world, and I expect them to in the future.

但这一切意味着一个时代的终结。

But what this all means is just like end of an era.

这对美元、国债以及你提到的特里芬难题意味着什么？

And what does that mean for the dollar, for treasury, Triffin dilemma that you mentioned?

嗯。

Mhmm.

我认为投资者在未来必须将所有这些因素都考虑在内。

I think investors are gonna have to take all of these things into account moving forward.

我从达沃斯注意到另一件非常有趣的事，就是加密货币领域的人士。

One other thing that I noticed from from Davos, was fascinating, was crypto people.

明白吗？

Okay?

就是来自这个行业的人。

Like from the industry.

这是有史以来第一次，也许以前他们只是零星出现，但这次他们首次真正进入了世界经济论坛，达沃斯的席位。

The first time ever, maybe they were there in pockets before, but first time ever, they had a seat at the World Economic Forum, Dallas.

加密人士在达沃斯确实是一股力量，是的，这

They were a force, crypto people at were a Davos Yeah, this

和那些大人物坐在一起。

with the big boys.

所以杰里米·艾勒尔在那里， CZ 也真的到场了，这让我觉得非常震撼，因为十八个月前，CZ 还在美国的监狱里。

So Jeremy Allaire was there, We had CZ was actually there, which is like so striking to me because like eighteen months ago, CZ was in a US prison.

是的

Yeah.

对

Right.

现在他出现在达沃斯了。

And now he's at Davos.

你可没被赦免。

You ain't got pardoned.

你没被赦免。

You ain't pardoned.

这真是

This was

布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗和一位法国央行官员之间有一段非常有趣的对话。

a really interesting exchange between Brian Armstrong and a French central banker.

我这就放给你听。

I'm just gonna play this.

我更信任那些具有民主授权的独立中央银行，而不是比特币的私人发行方。

I trust more independent central banks with a democratic mandate than private issuers of Bitcoin.

它们确实扮演着非常有用的角色。

Which have a very useful role.

但是

But

比特币是一个去中心化的协议。

Bitcoin is a decentralized protocol.

实际上并没有任何发行方。

There's actually no issuer of it.

因此，从中央银行具有独立性的角度来看，比特币甚至更加独立。

So that's that's the in the sense that central banks have independence, Bitcoin is even more independent.

世界上没有任何国家、公司或个人能够控制它。

There's no country or company or individual who controls it in the world.

所以，无论如何，我认为这是一种健康的竞争，因为人们可以自行决定更信任哪一个，而我认为这实际上是针对赤字支出最强有力的问责机制。

And so, anyway, I I think it's a healthy competition because because if people can decide which one they trust more and I think it's actually the greatest accountability mechanism on deficit spending.

我

I

我喜欢这个。

love that.

我喜欢这个对话。

I love that exchange.

现在，世界经济论坛上出现了对央行官员随意发表言论的抵制声音。

There is now pushback at the World Economic Forum on central bankers just getting, like, the ability to say whatever they'd like.

加密领域的人也开始反对，嗯。

There's now pushback from people in crypto who are like, well Mhmm.

你们并不能掌控世界。

You guys don't run the world.

我认为加密行业之所以在这一天里，这段视频在推特上迅速传播，是因为大家欣赏的是，布赖恩没有成为狂热分子，没有表现得荒谬，没有像个加密狂热者，他只是实事求是地说：

I I think it's why the crypto industry, this clip just rocketed around the crypto industry on on Twitter this day, so I think why why everyone appreciated it was that, you know, Brian isn't being a zealot, he's not being like ridiculous, you know, he's not being a crypto bro, he's just saying, you know Matter of fact.

银行家先生，你说得对，只要你们这些央行官员能负责任地执行货币政策，比特币可能确实无关紧要。

You are correct, mister banker, in that Bitcoin might just be irrelevant so long as all you central bankers are responsible with your monetary policy.

他甚至不必明说潜台词：没人认为央行官员能负责任地执行货币政策。

And he didn't even have to say the between the lines of like, no one thinks bankers, central bankers are responsible with their monetary policy.

没人这么认为。

No one thinks that.

没人这么认为。

No one thinks that.

这太好了。

That's great.

而且你知道吗？还有一个人也站在加密货币这边，就是这位先生，

And you know who also sort of had crypto's back as well, is this guy, Mr.

芬克先生，

Fink, Mr.

拉里·芬克。

Larry Fink.

这是他对‘那就是我们的人’的评论。

This is his comment on the That's our guy.

他非常看涨。

He's very bullish.

让我来说明一下。

Let, let me claim.

我认为向代币化和小额化发展的趋势很讽刺，我们看到两个新兴国家在货币的代币化和数字化方面引领世界。

I think the movement towards, tokenization, decimalization is It's ironic that we see two emerging countries leading the world in decimal in, in, in, in the, tokenization and digitization of their currency.

那就是巴西和印度。

That's Brazil and India.

我认为我们需要迅速推进这一点。

I think we need to move very rapidly, to doing that.

我们会降低费用。

We would be reducing fees.

通过进一步降低费用，我们会实现更多的民主化。

We would do more democratization by reducing more fees.

如果我们所有的投资都放在一个代币化平台上，可以在代币化的货币市场基金、股票和债券之间自由转换，并且使用同一个区块链，那会怎样？

If we had all investments on a tokenized platform that you can move from a tokenized money market fund to equities and bonds and back and forth, we have one common blockchain.

我们可以减少腐败，你知道的。

We will, you know, we, we could reduce corruption.

所以我会说，是的，我们可能更依赖于某一条区块链，这一点我们都可以讨论，但话又说回来，这些活动的处理方式可能比以往任何时候都更安全。

So I would argue, that yes, we have more dependencies on maybe one blockchain, which we could all talk about, but that being said, the activities are probably processed and more secure than ever.

所以他就是支持代币化的人。

So there he is, stick it up for tokenization.

当时有很多以太坊的人就抓住了这条单一的区块链。

Now there were a lot of Ethereum people who picked up on that one single blockchain.

这让我脑子里突然一亮。

That's what perked up in my brain.

我在想，如果你真的依赖于某一条单一的区块链，那该多好啊。

I was like, it wouldn't be nice if you did have dependencies on one single blockchain to have

一条十年来从未宕机过的区块链。

a blockchain that hasn't gone down in over ten years.

他指的是哪条区块链？还是我们应该从比喻的角度来理解他的话？

What blockchain is he talking about, or should we take him, like, more figuratively on that?

他是在说区块链领域，还是在谈论

Was he just saying the blockchain space, or was he talking about

他等一下。

He wait.

当你提到依赖于单一区块链时，你已经不再谈论区块链这个概念或区块链这个技术了。

When you say dependencies on one single blockchain, you're no longer talking about blockchain the idea or blockchain the technology.

你是在谈论那个可能引发这种问题的区块链。

You're talking about the blockchain that could actually invoke that sort of question.

我也这么认为。

I think so too.

我想这样理解拉里·芬克。

That's how I wanna interpret Larry Fink.

我们能谈谈小数点化吗？

Can we talk about decimalization, please?

我以前从来没听过这个词。

I've never heard that word before.

我太喜欢了。

I love it.

不。

No.

他得把那个翻译出来。

He had to translate that.

我们会做一期完整的节目来讨论decimalization，凯文。

We'll we'll do an entire episode on decimalization Kevin.

如果我们能试着理解它的话。

If we can try to understand it.

达沃斯的另一条新闻是，特朗普提到他几乎就要选定下一任美联储主席了。

One last news from Davos, of course, is Trump mentioned that he was really close to picking the next Fed chair.

在波利市场中支持率高达45%的候选人是凯文·沃什。

And the person that is rising in the ranks, 45% of Polymarket, is a guy by the name of Kevin Warsh.

凯文·沃什。

Kevin Warsh.

你你得

You you have

知道所有事情吗？

to know everything?

凯文·哈塞特，但现在正被凯文取代。

Kevin Hassett, but now being replaced by Kevin Yeah.

沃什。

Warsh.

所以不管怎样，凯文这周都会赢。

So either way, Kevin's gonna win this week.

是的。

Yeah.

不过，凯文·哈塞特的支持率已经降到6%了，戴维。

Kevin's Kevin Hassett's down to 6% though, David.

所以，凯文·沃什真的已经超越他了。

So, like, Kevin Warsh has really surpassed him.

每个听众都在问的一个大问题是，他对加密货币的立场是什么？

The big question that every listener has is, like, what's his status on crypto?

他对加密货币怎么看？

What does he think about crypto?

这人是谁？

Who is this guy?

从来没听说过。

Never heard Yeah.

了

Of

他有点喜欢稳定币。

He's he's, like, kind of a fan of stable coins a little bit.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他说加密货币并不是真正的货币，而是一种有趣的东西。

He said that crypto is not really money, but something interesting.

好吧？

Alright?

他曾是算法稳定币Bay Basis的投资者。

He was an investor in the algorithmic stable coin, Bay Basis.

你还记得吗？

Do you remember that?

我记得。

I do remember that.

你知道我为什么记得吗？

You know what I why I remember that?

因为我记得这正是Do Kwon创建Terra和Luna的主要灵感来源，这是一个有趣的事实，可能听众们还不知道。

Because I remember that being the main inspiration for Do Kwon's pre Terra This Luna is a fun fact that that maybe maybe listeners don't know about.

在Do Kwon推出Terra Luna之前，他做过另一个算法稳定币的实验。

Before Do Kwon did Terra Luna, he did another algorithmic stablecoin experiment.

但不是Basis。

Not not basis, though.

不是Basis。

Not basis.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得它确实是以B开头的。

I think it did start with a b.

是的。

Yeah.

它曾经是

It was

一种衍生品。

a derivative.

它是这个更差的衍生品。

It was a crappier derivative of this.

它是一个更差的衍生品，而他正是从这里获得了灵感，才去做了Terra Luna。

It was a crappier derivative and it's kinda where he got the information to be inspired to do Terra Luna.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我在想，Warsh作为Augusta's Web的投资者，对此有什么看法？

So I wonder what Warsh thinks about that having been an investor in Augusta's Web.

我觉得他不会去想这个。

Don't think he thinks about that.

还有Bitwise。

Also, Bitwise.

他也投资了Bitwise。

He also did invest in Bitwise.

他

He

他是Bitwise的投资者。

He's likes an to investor in Bitwise.

这很聪明。

That's smart.

2021年。

2021.

一个。

One.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

这是一个不错且可接受的投资组合。

That's a good, that's an acceptable portfolio.

还有很多话题要聊。

So much more to talk about.

纽约证券交易所宣布了他们的代币化平台。

The New York Stock Exchange announcing their tokenization platform.

这对我们有利吗？

Is that good for us?

我们的梦想实现了，还是这会与DeFi合作？

Do our dreams come true, or is this gonna co op DeFi?

此外，链上社交看似放弃，但Vitalik却想加倍投入。

Also, on chain social, thrown in the towel, but Vitalik wants to double down.

Vitalik说：我们再试一次。

Vitalik's like, let's do it again.

所有这些，还有更多。

All this and more.

但在开始之前，我们要感谢让本集成为可能的赞助商。

But before we do, we wanna thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.

如果你能用和交易加密货币相同的工具和速度来交易黄金、外汇和全球市场，会怎么样？

What if you could trade gold, forex, and global markets with the same tools and speed that you use for crypto?

这正是Bitget TradFi所实现的。

That's exactly what Bitget TradFi unlocks.

在经历强劲的测试期需求后，包括单日黄金交易量超过一亿美元，Bitget TradFi现已向所有用户开放。

After strong beta demand, including over a $100,000,000 in single day gold trading volume, Bitget TradFi is now live for all users.

在你现有的Bitget账户中，你可以交易79种金融产品，涵盖外汇、贵金属、指数和商品，所有交易均以USDT结算。

Inside of your existing Bitget account, you can trade 79 instruments across forex, precious metals, indices, and commodities, all settled directly in USDT.

无需切换平台，也无需法币兑换。

No platform switching and no fiat conversions.

这就是Bitget通用交易所愿景的体现。

This is Bitget's universal exchange vision in action.

加密货币与传统金融并肩共存。

Crypto and traditional finance side by side.

你将获得深厚的流动性、低滑点，以及最高500倍的杠杆，让你将加密策略应用于宏观市场。

You get deep liquidity, low slippage, and leverage up to 500 x, letting you apply crypto strategies to macro markets.

刚接触传统金融？

New to TradFi?

从黄金开始。

Start with gold.

黄金兑美元货币对流动性强，受宏观因素驱动，是加密货币与传统市场之间自然的桥梁。

The gold USD pair is liquid, macro driven, and a familiar natural bridge between crypto and traditional markets.

立即前往 bitget.com 在Bitget上交易黄金。

Try trading gold on Bitget now at bitget.com.

点击节目说明中的链接获取更多信息。

Click the link in the show notes for more information.

这不是财务建议。

This is not financial advice.

在加密货币领域，很少有人在公开预测市场高点或低点时真正承担风险。

Few people in crypto put real skin in the game when they make public top or bottom calls.

DeFi报告就是其中之一。

The DeFi report is one of them.

在10月10日闪崩前一周，DeFi报告的迈克尔通过邮件向整个通讯订阅者表示，他正在大幅降低风险，将大部分持仓从加密货币转为现金。

The week before the October 10 flash crash, Michael from the DeFi report emailed his entire newsletter saying he's going aggressively risk off and sold the majority of his book from crypto into cash.

当时以太坊价格约为4000美元，比特币价格为110美元。

This is when ETH was about $4,000 and Bitcoin was a 110.

迈克尔运营着DeFi报告——一个以数据、周期洞察、风险管理、透明度，最重要的是，真正承担风险为基础的行业领先研究平台。

Michael runs the DeFi report, an industry leading research platform built on data, cycle awareness, risk management, transparency, and most importantly, skin in the game.

我们在Bankless很喜欢迈克尔。

We like Michael at Bankless.

我们喜欢他的分析，这就是为什么你每月大约能听到一次他在Bankless播客中的声音。

We like his analysis, and that's why you hear him on the Bankless podcast about once a month.

而且DeFi报告正在为Bankless的听众提供一个月的免费访问权限。

And the DeFi report is giving Bankless listeners one free month of access to the DeFi report.

所以，如果你正在寻找一些敏锐、以数据为驱动的分析，以更明智地做出投资组合决策，你可以在DeFi Report Pro中了解Michael是如何预测顶部的，以及他接下来的计划。

So if you're looking for some sharp, data driven analysis to make better informed decisions around your portfolio, you can learn why and how Michael called the top and what he's doing next all in the DeFi report pro.

去看看吧。

Check it out.

链接在节目笔记中。

There is a link in the show notes.

纽约证券交易所正在推出一个代币化平台，根据其新闻稿，纽约证券交易所宣布正在开发一个用于交易和链上结算代币化证券的平台，并将寻求监管批准。

The New York Stock Exchange is launching a tokenization platform from their press release saying the New York Stock Exchange announced its development of a platform for trading and on chain settlement of tokenized securities for it, which it will seek regulatory approval.

这个新的数字平台将支持代币化交易体验，包括7x24小时运营、即时结算、以美元金额为单位的订单。

The new digital platform will enable tokenized trading experiences, including twenty four seven operations, instant settlement, orders sized in dollar amounts.

我认为这意味着，与按股数交易不同，你可以直接说：我想买1000股 fractional 股票。

I think that means as opposed to like share amounts, you could just say I want 1,000 Fractional stocks.

fractional 股票

Fractional stocks.

是的

Yeah.

对

Yeah.

还有基于稳定币的融资。

And also stable coin based funding.

挺酷的。

Pretty cool.

这个设计结合了纽约证券交易所的撮合引擎——也就是他们的技术、他们的知识产权——以及基于区块链的交易后系统，包括支持多条链进行结算和托管。

Design this design combines the NYSE's matching engine, which is like their technology, their IP basically, with Blockchain based post trade systems, including the capability for multiple chains for settlement and custody.

哦，链。

Oh, chains.

我觉得这只能意味着需要智能合约的公有链。

I think that could only mean public blockchains that have to be smart contracts.

这一定是这样。

It's gotta be.

你提到的这一切都运行在公有链上，你觉得是这样吗？

Smart you're saying all of this is on is it gonna be on public blockchains, you think?

我们还不知道。

We don't know yet.

我看到的是，它正在将自己专有的撮合引擎应用于接收来自公有链的代币化资产。

I what I'm seeing is it is applying its its proprietary matching engine to ingest tokenized things, tokenized assets from public blockchains.

我觉得你可以把它们存入纽约证券交易所，然后通过他们的撮合引擎进行交易。

And I think you like deposit it with the NYSE and then you can trade those things on using their their matching engine.

是的。

Yeah.

该平台将支持一个全新的NICE交易场所，用于交易与传统发行证券可互换的代币化股票，以及原生发行的数字证券代币。

The platform will power a new NICE venue that supports trading of tokenized shares fungible with traditionally issued securities, as well as tokens natively issued as digital securities.

代币化股东将参与传统股东的股息分配和治理权利。

Tokenized shareholders will participate in traditional shareholder dividends and governance rights.

该交易平台旨在遵循现有的市场结构原则，并通过非歧视性地向所有合格的经纪交易商提供接入来实现分发。

The venue is designed to align with established principles for market structure and via with distribution via non discriminatory access to all qualified broker dealers.

所以这就像一种融合——传统金融世界现在可以通过这个全新的交易平台与区块链世界实现互操作。

So it's kind of a a meld of just like, hey, the trad world can now interoperate interoperate with the blockchain world via this brand new trading video.

我觉得这相当有趣。

I think it's it's pretty interesting.

对吧？

Right?

顺便提一下，纽约证券交易所的资产规模超过40万亿美元。

And just some context, the New York Stock Exchange, over 40,000,000,000,000 in assets.

资产管理规模。

The AUM.

有史以来最大的证券交易所。

Biggest stock exchange ever.

哦，是的。

Oh, yeah.

是的。

Yes.

而且你看，对比一下

And it's like, I mean, compare

这跟纳斯达克相比，只能算是第二名，虽然表现不错，但差距还是很大。

that to Nasdaq is like a second place, a healthy second place, but still not close.

对。

Right.

再拿以太坊来说，如果算它的资产管理规模，或者总锁仓价值。

Compare that to say Ethereum, assets under management, if you will, or TVL.

对吧？

Right?

以太坊大约是900亿美元。

Ethereum, it's about 90 x Ethereum.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以这真的非常大。

So it's, like, really big.

另外，一个问题在于，这和纳斯达克这样的平台有什么不同？

Also, one question is sort of what's different versus this than something like the Nasdaq?

纳斯达克，我们在整合过程中提到过，那是另一个主要交易所。

So the Nasdaq, we talked about this in the roll up, which is another major exchange.

他们一直在谈论代币化。

They were talking about tokenization.

这里不同的是，这是西蒙·泰勒，也许我可以评论一下，其他人都在构建基础设施，以对现有资产进行代币化。

What's different here is, this is Simon Taylor, maybe I'll comment, everyone else is building infrastructure to tokenize existing assets.

还记得DTCC的新闻吗？

Like, remember the news of the DTCC?

是的。

Mhmm.

他们将现有的托管证券进行了代币化。

They tokenized existing custody securities.

道琼斯新闻，他们正在对现有的货币市场基金和ETF进行代币化。

State Street News, they were tokenizing existing money market funds and ETFs.

纳斯达克也是如此，他们正在与传统方式并行地进行代币化交易。

And the Nasdaq too, they were tokenizing trading alongside of, like, traditional for existing tokenization.

但纽约证券交易所正在宣布一种全新的方式，将股票上链，并提供一个交易场所。

But the New York Stock Exchange, and what they're announcing, they're building a new way to bring equities on chain, and also a venue to trade them.

明白吗？

Okay?

他们正在构建一个独立的区块链系统，实现即时结算、7x24小时交易和股票碎片化。

So they're doing a whole separate blockchain thing that is instant settlement, 20 fourseven, fractionalized equities.

这比纳斯达克或DTCC所宣布的任何举措都要更进一步。

It's a bit, it's a bigger step than anything that's been announced by the NASDAQ or the DTCC.

它的规模更大，而且相当酷。

It's bigger in scope, and it's kinda cool.

不过，一个关键问题是：这会扼杀DeFi吗？

I mean, a big question though is, does this kill DeFi?

我以为

Thought that

我们就是在做这个。

was what we were doing.

这感觉和Tempo非常相似，就是说，你们那边有很棒的区块链技术和代币化技术。

This feels like very similar to like Tempo, where it's like, hey, fantastic blockchain technology and tokenization technology you guys have over there.

如果我们只是把这些技术全部用于自身，而没有任何价值流入公链，那就太可惜了。

It would be a shame if we just took all of that and use it for ourselves, and none of the value of all that technology actually flowed into public blockchain.

所以，这就是问题所在吗？

So is that is that kind of the question?

是的。

Yeah.

这基本上就是杰夫·多曼的理论。

That that's sort of Jeff Dorman's theory here.

我来念一下这条推文。

I'll read out this tweet.

他说，加密货币现在真的正处于一场生存危机之中。

So he says this, crypto really is an exist is in an existential crisis right now.

我们原本以为会在区块链上发生的一切，现在确实发生了，但极少有价值能回馈到我们生态系统中的任何股票或代币。

Everything we thought would happen on blockchain is now happening, but little if any of the value accrues to any stocks or tokens in our ecosystem.

协议理论早已死亡。

That protocol thesis is long dead.

他进一步表示，比特币与这些区块链增长引擎、现实世界资产完全无关，而他认为只有少数DeFi代币会胜出，也许像Galaxy这样的股票也会。

He goes on to say, you you have Bitcoin, it has nothing to do with any of this blockchain growth engine stuff, and the real world assets, and then he just thinks that only a handful full of DeFi tokens will win, maybe in stocks like Galaxy.

基本上，传统金融将窃取我们所有酷炫的技术，并将其据为己有。

And, basically, TradFi is gonna co opt all of our cool stuff, and they're gonna make it their own.

我不知道，DeFi已经死了，加密货币也死了。

And, I don't know, like, DeFi's dead, crypto's dead.

杰夫，我认为你对昨天宣布的这个平台的成功做了太多假设，而我们对这个平台几乎没有任何细节信息，是的。

Jeff, I think you're doing a lot of assumptions as to the success of this platform that got announced yesterday, of which we have very, few details Yeah.

它是EVM吗？

Is it an EVM?

他们根本不想用区块链。

Like, they won't wanna use a blockchain.

这是个EVM链吗？

Is it an EVM chain?

到底是什么东西啊？

Like, what what anything about What

他们用的是什么链？

chains are they using?

我们什么都不知道。

We know nothing.

对吧？

Right?

如果这是对这个平台成功的某种声明，而不是它的公关发布，那我会同意杰夫的观点，但我们当时

So I would agree with Jeff if this was a somehow some sort of statement of success of this platform and not a PR release of this platform, but we were

在

in the

这还处于非常早期的阶段。

very early stages of this.

我更倾向于亚历克斯·索恩的观点，他提出了一个问题：在无法提取股票、自行托管、点对点交易的情况下，你在中心化金融中交易代币化股票究竟有什么优势？代币化股票只会沦为后台技术升级，99%的投资者根本看不到显著收益。

I I'm more relating to the Alex Thorne take side of things where he asked the question, what advantage do you even get from trading tokenized stocks in CeFi without the ability to pull the stocks out, self custody them, trade them peer to peer, tokenized stocks will be regulated to a back office tech upgrade that 99% of investors won't even see significant benefit from.

我认为这会带来一些好处，比如24/7、全年无休的市场，没错。

I think there will be some benefits to this, like twenty four seven, three sixty five markets Sure.

即时结算。

Instant settlement.

后台升级是肯定的，是的。

There will be back office upgrades Yeah.

也许24/7、全年无休的好处主要对交易员有利。

And like maybe the twenty four seven, three sixty five benefits traders.

但我同意，这根本不是创新所在。

But I agree, this is like, this is not where the innovation is.

然后是奥米德·马拉坎，我们曾多次邀请他做客节目，他是哥伦比亚大学的一位教授，我认为他说，纽约证券交易所的公告纯粹是营销，毫无实质内容。

And then Omid, Omid Malaikan, who we had on the show a handful of times, he's a professor at Columbia, I think, he says, the New York Stock Exchange announcement is just mostly marketing with no substance whatsoever.

关键的技术和经济细节完全缺失。

Key technical and economic details are completely missing.

他还补充说，纽约证券交易所的整个商业模式依赖于中心化、受监管的市场结构和延迟结算，这与加密货币和代币化的真实运作方式相冲突。

And he also added that the entire New York Stock Exchange business model depends on centralized regulated market structure and delayed settlement, which conflicts with how crypto and tokenization actually works.

在我看来，这就像我们自加密货币诞生以来一直进行的另一场辩论，即区块链与比特币的争论。

I see this as just like another debate that we've had since the beginning of crypto, which is the blockchain not Bitcoin debate.

这种观点认为，区块链技术才是酷的东西，但公有区块链就没那么酷了。

And this is the blockchain technology is the cool thing, but public blockchains, not that cool.

别觉得那些有多酷。

Don't think those are that cool.

但事实上，正如我们一再学到的，真正酷的是公有区块链，而区块链技术的私有应用最多只是微不足道的。

But in fact, as we've learned time and time again, it's actually public blockchains that are the cool thing, and private applications of blockchain technology are marginal at best.

这就是我不担心这个的原因。

This is why I'm not worried about this.

这就是我认为这对加密货币整体有利的原因，因为传统金融现在终于认输了，承认你们关于代币化的观点是对的，于是他们也想试试自己的方法。

This is why I think this is net bullish crypto, because this is now Tradify kind of capitulating and being like, well, you guys were right about tokenization, so we're gonna try our thing.

是的

Yeah.

这有点像

It's sort of like

但让我们再谈谈区块链而非比特币这个话题吧，既然我们已经给了你这个回应。

But let's let's try the blockchain, not Bitcoin thing again, now that we've given you this Yeah.

这个基础。

This ground.

他们不明白的是，加密货币与众不同之处在于它是开放的，就像互联网一样。

What they're not understanding is the thing that is different about crypto is it's And it's open like the Internet.

嗯。

Mhmm.

这就像是，假设AOL运营了四十年，但AOL这个封闭的互联网只在早上九点到五点开放，没有银行假日，而现在AOL突然宣布它将24小时全天候开放，我们有了即时通讯，也有了AOL生态系统，所以你不再需要那个叫互联网的其他东西。

So this was as if this would be as if, you know, like AOL, let's say, was in operation for forty years, but, you know, AOL, the closed border internet, was only open from like nine to five, no bank holidays, and now, AOL suddenly announces that it's gonna be twenty four seven, We've got instant messenger, and we've got the AOL ecosystem, so you don't need that other thing called the internet.

对吧？

Right?

但那只会是一个封闭的花园。

But that's just gonna be a closed garden.

所有有趣的东西、开发者、应用和无许可的创新，

All of the interesting things, and the developers, and the applications, and the permissionless innovation.

都会发生在开放网络这一侧。

That's gonna happen on the open network side of things.

所有这些都将发生在互联网上。

That's gonna be all on the internet.

而传统金融所做的任何事都无法阻止这一点。

And whatever TradFi does is not going to stop that.

它只会帮助并进一步推动这一点。

It's only going to help that, and further that.

所以，我站在这样的立场上：太好了，这看涨，我一点也不担心。

So, like, mark me in the camp of, like, great, this is bullish, I'm not worried at all.

来参加派对吧，传统金融，试着和我们的同行竞争。

Come to the party, trad fi, try to compete against our peers.

你差不多了。

You're almost there.

你几乎就成功了。

You almost got it.

你差不多已经弄明白了。

You've almost figured it out.

你还没完全到位，但已经非常接近了。

You're not quite there yet, but you're so close.

大卫，你觉得这个怎么样？

What about this, David?

这是链上社交的终点吗？至少是一个时代的结束？

Is this the end of on chain social, at least the end of an era?

这周Farcaster和Lens被收购了。

Farcaster and Lens were acquired this week.

到底发生了什么？

What happened?

为什么

Why

这种情况总是会发生吗？

does this always happen?

比如，有很多周都出现两则独立的新闻，它们却如此吻合。

Like, there are so many weeks where there's two independent bits of news, and they are so congruous with each other.

这周，NaNar收购了Farcaster，Mask Network接管了Lens。

So this week, NaNar acquired Farcaster and Mask Network takes over Lens.

现在，NaNar和Mask Network都是筹集过资金的团队，并且身处它们所收购项目的生态系统内部。

Now both of these things, NaNar and Mask Network, are teams that have raised money and are inside of the respective ecosystem of the thing that they are acquiring.

这就像是应用层的东西，拥有资金和资源，收购了最初构建该应用的平台。

So it's like something in the app layer that has the funds and the money acquires the platform that the app was built on in the first place.

感觉很反常，对吧？

Feels backwards, right?

感觉是的。

Feels yeah.

感觉有点像尾巴摇着狗，或者车拉着马，但无所谓了。

Feels like a little bit of like tail wagging the dog, like cart leading the horse, but like whatever.

尽管如此，我们可以谈谈这是怎么发生的。

Nonetheless, we can talk about how that came to be.

Naynar已从Merkle手中收购了Farcaster协议应用及相关基础设施的全部控制权。

So Naynar has bought for all control of the FarCaster protocol app and related infrastructure from Merkle.

Merkle是Farcaster背后的公司。

Merkle is the company behind FarCaster.

现在我们将端到端地运营这个网络，包括协议、主客户端以及Clanker。

And now we'll run the network end to end, the protocol, the main client, and also Clanker.

Clanker是Podcaster生态系统中最重要的应用，赚的钱最多。

Clanker is like the most significant app in the Podcaster ecosystem, makes the most money.

Nanar是一家社交基础设施提供商，曾从Han Ventures、Union Square Ventures和Coinbase Ventures筹集了约1400万美元，正是用这笔钱收购了这些资产。

Nanar is a social infrastructure provider, raised money from Han Ventures, Union Square Ventures, Coinbase Ventures raised like $14,000,000 and that's where they got the money to acquire this.

为什么会发生这种情况？

Why is this happening?

嗯，我们一直知道Farcaster曾表示过，我们尝试过链上社交，但我们迄今为止最成功的产品其实是钱包，所以现在我们要专注于钱包了，但这某种程度上是一种妥协。

Well, we've known Farcaster has like kind of said like, hey, we tried On Chain Social, our best product that we've ever built is the wallet, so actually we are now going to focus on the wallet, but it was kind of a capitulation.

这有点像是认输，我觉得他们只是看到了把所有东西卖给Neynar的机会，n-e-y-n-a-r，所以是的。

It was kind of throwing in the towel, and I think they just saw the opportunity to sell everything to Neynar, n e y n a r, and so Yeah.

很难说。

It's hard to say.

你知道，Romero和他的另一位联合创始人，他们已经在这个领域打拼了五年。

You know, Romero though, and his other co founder, they've been at this for five years.

从我的角度来看，你不能说他们没努力过。

Like, from my perspective, you can't say they didn't try.

Lend也是。

And Lend's Lend's as well.

我觉得他们真的尽力了。

Feel like they really gave it a try here.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我喜欢Xerox Hoobar的这个观点。

I I did like this take from Xerox Hoobar.

他写道，Farcaster是我见过的加密领域中最体面的收场之一。

He he wrote Farcaster is one of the more respectable wind downs I've seen in crypto.

他们一直保持小团队运营，并且烧钱节奏健康。

They ran a lean team with a healthy burn throughout.

他们对一个高市值市场做出了反主流的押注。

They took a contrarian bet on a huge market cap.

他们构建了真正的去中心化技术。

They built real decentralized tech.

他们没有推出无用的、空谈的、半成品产品，也没有复制粘贴分叉项目。

What they didn't do was launch a useless soaking chill vaporware products and run copy pasta forks.

这些替代方案中的任何一个，都会对社区用户造成严重得多的损害。

Any of these alternatives would have drastically worse for users in the community.

所以他基本上是说，他们确实尝试了，而且也没有像我们生态系统中许多经常失败的应用那样做那些糟糕的事情。

And so he kind of was saying like, hey, they tried and they also didn't do like the shitty things that come with many of the frequently failing apps that we have in the ecosystem.

是的。

Yeah.

两者都值得称赞。

Credit to both.

而且要给予认可，这可能在某种程度上会交到更靠谱的人手里。

And credit credit, this is probably it's probably gonna be in better hands at at some level.

对。

Yeah.

团队已经尽了最大努力，现在应用层面开始接管，也许它会以某种形式复活，这或许是一个充满希望的未来。

The team is pushed as far as they can, and now, you know, the kinda the apps are taking over, maybe this resurrects in some form, and that that's possibly a hopeful future.

这里还有一个观点，大卫，认为这标志着一个时代的终结。

There there's also the take here, David, that this is, like, the end of an era.

毕竟，你怎么还能相信

Like, basically How can you believe

现在就链上社交而言？

in on chain social at this point?

我们两个重要的平台都在逐渐收尾。

Both of our two significant platforms are kinda like winding down.

你怎么能说我们没有尝试过链上社交呢？

How could you ever say that like, we didn't try On Chain Social?

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

你知道，克里斯·迪克森

And you know, Chris Dixon

你绝不会傻到说我们没试过链上社交，我们应该再努力一点。

You would had be this silly to ever say that we haven't tried On Chain Social, we should just try harder.

没人会这么说，对吧，莱恩？

No one would ever say that, right, Ryan?

实际上，Vitalik 这周说过这句话。

Well, actually, Vitalik said that on the week.

我的意思是，一种观点是我们试过了，但失败了。

Well, like, you know, one take is like, we tried it and it failed.

比如，读、写、拥有时代，这应该是 Chris Dixon 平台的理念之一，即你拥有自己的帖子之类的。

Like, read, write, own era, that was part of Chris Dixon's platform, I suppose, was the idea that you own your own posts, that sort of thing.

我们在加密领域试过这个，但现在它已经死了，或者时机不对，暂时行不通。

We tried that in crypto, and it's dead, or it's not gonna work right now, the timing is off.

另一方面，Vitalik 这周发了帖，实际上他还转推了 Lens 收购的消息，所以非常相关。

Vitalik, on the other hand, posted this week, and actually he's quote tweeting the Lens acquisition news, so it's very relevant.

到 2026 年，我计划全面回归去中心化社交。

In 2026, I plan to be fully back to decentralized social.

什么？

What?

所以当他们往左，你就往右。

So when when they zig, you zag.

好吧？

Okay?

所以Vitalik指出，嘿，我们知道我们试过了，但还没真正做成功，对吧。

So Vitalik makes the point that, hey, we haven't like, I know we've tried it, but we haven't done it, like, correct.

这之前太多是关于投机，太多是关于代币的事情。

It's been a lot about speculation, it's been a lot about token stuff.

他说，加密社交项目常常走错了方向。

Crypto social projects, he said, have often gone the wrong way.

在加密领域，我们太经常认为，只要在某样东西里加入一个投机性的代币，就算创新了。

Too often we in crypto think that if you insert a speculative coin into something, that counts as innovating.

他说，未来他将通过聚合器发布内容。

And he says moving forward, what he's gonna be doing is posting through aggregators.

也就是覆盖所有的社交网络。

So hits, like, all the social networks.

他对于Lens和Farcaster在未来的发展也非常兴奋，并鼓励其他人使用去中心化社交。

And he's pretty excited about actually, you know, Lens and and Farcaster into the future as as well, and he is encouraging others to basically use decentralized social.

你对这个怎么看？

It's like, what's your take on that?

我的看法是，Vitalik 希望看到一个美好的未来世界，而他认为这就是我们实现它的途径。

My take on this is Vitalik wants to see a future world that is good, and this is how he sees us getting there.

他认为，通过链上社交才能实现这一点。

He sees us doing on chain social to get there.

这也反映了以太坊在过去两三年里所经历的困境：Vitalik 在某种程度上是某种精神领袖，或者说，是关于什么是好的哲学王。

This is also emblematic of a lot of Ethereum's malaise that it's experienced over the last two to three years is like, Vitalik is a spiritual leader of sorts, of, you know, philosopher king of sorts about what's good.

我信任 Vitalik，我认为他拥有任何人都难以比拟的最高道德标准。

And like, I trust Vitalik, I think he's got like some of the highest moral compass that anyone has.

如果这能成功就好了。

It would be great if this worked.

如果这能成功就好了。

It would great if this worked.

如果这能成功，对以太坊来说将大有裨益。

It would be great for Ethereum if this worked.

它会

It would

如果成功，对人类将大有裨益。

be great for humanity if this worked.

在过去两年里，如果以太坊社区一直认为我们需要产品领导力，需要扭转局面，需要按时交付成果，需要更积极一些，那么当前的做法就不是良好的产品领导力。

It is not good product leadership for Ethereum when in the last two years, if the Ethereum community has been like, we need product leadership, we need to like turn this ship around, we need to like ship on time, we need to be a little bit more aggressive.

是的。

Yeah.

这与那种需求背道而驰，但你知道，Vitalik 可以做任何他想做的事，你也可以直接说，去中心化社交，现在还早了十年。

And so it's antagonistic to that, but you know, Vitalik gets to do whatever whatever he wants to do, you know, you could also just say that like, you know what, decentralized social, ten years too early.

你知道的？

You know?

我认为这在未来也会实现。

I think that's out in the future as well.

他会说，比如，我鼓励大家今年多花点时间在 Lens、Farcaster 或更广泛的去中心化社交上。

Will say like, he he says things like, you know, I encourage everyone to spend more time on Lens, Farcast, or broader decentralized social this year.

我们需要超越所有人不断在单一全球信息战区中发推文的现状。

We need to move beyond everyone constantly tweeting inside a single global info war zone.

我用这种方式来间接批评推特。

And I use this kind of like showing throwing shade at at Twitter.

太吵了，太混乱了。

It's like too loud, too messy.

算法太差了，诸如此类的问题。

The algorithm is terrible, all that kind of stuff.

我不知道加密货币能否解决这个问题。

I don't know if crypto fixes that.

我们需要为此开发一条区块链吗？

Like, we need a blockchain for that?

还是说有其他相关的技术？

Or do we are there other adjacent technologies?

区块链能解决推特的弊病吗？

Like, does the blockchain fix the malaise of Twitter?

我不是

I'm not

我不确定认为它真的能解决。

I don't sure about think it does.

我觉得我们已经试过了。

I feel like we've tried it.

比如，如果你被问到以太坊是做什么的，而你的回答是，它是用于去中心化的，它是用于。

Like, so if you were to ask what is Ethereum for, and if you're the answer to that question is, it's for decentralized It's for.

我觉得你走错方向了，是的。

I think you're going the wrong direction Yeah.

你知道

You know

我的意思吗？

what I mean?

比如，那不可能是答案。

Like, that can't be the answer.

比如，我们

Like, we

试过了。

tried that.

我们账本的产品市场契合度，这其实并不意外，因为它们就是账本，有借方和贷方，是账本，而你们围绕它们构建了智能合约，所以它必然是资产、是货币、是金融。

The product market fit for our ledgers, which is like, not surprising, because they are ledgers, so you have debits and credits, they're ledgers, And you've created smart contracts around them, it's going to be assets, it's money, it's finance,

是去中心化金融，也就是DeFi。

it's DeFi, which is It's be DeFi.

这是对人类的巨大升级，但我们是否还有足够的潜力可以挖掘？

An incredible upgrade to humanity that we One more do we still have so much juice to squeeze.

这是一个巨大的成功。

It's a big win.

这真的是一个巨大的成功。

It's a really big win.

我个人拿到了这个奖项。

My my personal I got the the prize.

我得到了奖赏。

I prize.

保持专注。

Stay focused.

保持专注。

Stay focused.

我真的很觉得，我的意思是，Bankless使命的一部分就是关于这个，是的。

I really feel like, I mean, part part of the bankless mission was just like about Yeah.

以太坊专注于DeFi。

Ethereum focusing on on DeFi.

是的。

Yes.

我觉得我们的社交层面有时会分心。

And I feel like our social layer sometimes gets distracted.

我的意思是，我们试过了。

I mean, we try it.

而且我觉得，我们应该把企业和社会功能整合起来，让你的DeFi活动都相互关联、彼此反馈。

And I like I think we like integrate like, you know, Entre and Social, It'll be integrated in, like, your your your DeFi activities, and everything will feed back in on itself.

结果发现，这些更像是些不相关的支线任务，我们根本没法真正融入去中心化金融的体验中。

And turns out, like, those were more discongruent side quests than we could actually wrap into, like, the decentralized finance experience.

至少对于加密货币来说是这样。

At least for crypto.

我的意思是，加密货币不可能包揽一切。

I mean, crypto can't do everything.

以太坊也不可能包揽一切。

Ethereum can't do everything.

至少目前来看，它不会去做去中心化社交，但它在DeFi领域还有很多事情要做。

And maybe it's just like, at least right now, it's not going to do decentralized social, but it's got a lot to go a lot more to do on the DeFi front.

就我个人而言，我非常希望我们能继续专注于这个方向。

And I for one, would love to see us continue to focus there.

大卫，我们还有更多话题要讨论。

David, we got more to discuss.

《清晰法案》似乎被搁置了。

The Clarity Act seems like it's on pause.

发生什么事了？

What's happening?

特朗普政府是否因为Coinbase退出而生气？

And is the Trump administration mad at Coinbase for pulling out?

此外，机构投资者和量子计算的担忧正促使他们因量子风险而抛售比特币。

Also, institutional investors and quantum fears, they're starting to sell Bitcoin because of quantum.

我们将深入分析杰富瑞分析师关于此事的报告，涵盖所有这些内容及其他。

We'll dive into a Jefferies analyst report on this, all this and more.

但在开始之前，我们要感谢使本集成为可能的赞助商。

But before we do, we wanna thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.

大家好，Bankless社群。

Hey, Bankless Nation.

我是大卫。

It's David.

如果你正在听这个，那是因为你在收听免费的Bankless播客频道。

If you're hearing this, that's because you are listening to the free Bankless Podcast feed.

你知道吗？还有一个付费的Bankless RSS订阅源。

Did you know that there is a premium bankless RSS feed?

付费订阅包含我为个人研究进行的额外访谈，以及一些关于加密行业更深入的问题——这些问题我希望能得到解答，以便在风投和我个人投资组合中都能更明智地决策。

The premium feed has extra interviews that I do for my own personal research and just deeper questions that I want answered about the crypto industry, questions that I want to answer so I can be more informed as an investor both at Ventures and also just in my own personal portfolio too.

此外，付费订阅没有广告，这意味着如果你选择听付费版而非免费版，每年能节省大约二十小时的时间，因为你直接支持了Bankless。

Also, there are no ads, which means if you listen to the premium feed instead of the free feed, you'll get about twenty hours of your life back every year because you choose to support Banklist directly.

所以，如果你希望获得额外内容、跳过广告，或者只是欣赏我们所做的工作并希望我们持续下去，我们非常感谢你注册Bankless Premium。

So if you're interested in getting extra content all while skipping the ads or you just appreciate what we do here and want us to keep doing it, we'd appreciate it if you signed up for Banklist Premium.

节目说明中提供了开始订阅的链接。

And there is a link in the show notes to get started.

祝2026年一切顺利。

Cheers to a good 2026.

好的，David。

Alright, David.

这周关于《清晰法案》的新闻是推迟了。

So the news on the Clarity Act this week is a delay.

你知道，我们上周花了大量时间讨论《清晰法案》的来龙去脉。

You know, we spent so much time talking about Clarity and the back and forth of it last week.

这周的更新是，由于参议院小组转向支持特朗普的住房计划，该法案可能推迟到二月底或三月。

This week, the update is, the bill is likely delayed until late February or March as the senate panel pivots to the Trump housing push.

所以参议院正在转向其他议题，而《清晰法案》则陷入某种僵局。

So the senate is moving on to other things, and somewhat clarity act is in some purgatory.

还记得农业委员会吗？

The remember the ag committee?

他们有自己的版本。

They had their own version.

我们昨天谈的是参议院银行委员会的版本。

We're talking about the the banking committee's version in the Senate yesterday.

不过，农业委员会确实发布了他们的版本，这算是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。

Well, the Ag Committee did publish their version, so that's a step in the right direction.

问题是，这有点像是两党共同发布的。

The problem is, it was kind of like a bipartisan sort of publishing it.

是农业委员会的共和党领导层表示：这是我们的版本。

It was kind of the Republican leadership on the Ag Committee saying, well, this is our version.

我们在这一委员会无法与民主党达成一致，所以我们只能单独发布我们的版本。

We can't come to agreement with the Dems on this specific committee, so we're just publishing our version separately.

这可不是好兆头，因为显然你需要两党共识和足够的参议院票数才能通过这项法案，而他们目前还没有。

Which is, like, not a good sign, because, like, you obviously need bipartisan consensus and enough Senate votes to get this thing through, and they don't have it yet.

所以，不幸的是，这就是目前的状况。

And so, that's the status, unfortunately.

我们处于暂停状态。

We're on pause.

我们暂时被搁置了。

We're on ice for a little bit.

《清晰法案》在2026年获得签署的概率，哦，已经降至我们之前讨论的水平了。

The probability that the Clarity Act is signed in 2026, oh, it just dropped to what we were talking about.

在Poly Markets上，有39%的概率。

On poly markets, 39% chance.

上周这概率还是42%左右，所以稍微下降了一点，但总体还算平稳。

That was like 42% or something like that last week, so it's gone down a little bit, but it's pretty flat.

加密货币在这则消息公布后也出现了抛售，尤其是智能合约平台以太坊。

Crypto definitely sold off on this news as well, especially with the smart contract platforms, Ether.

我认为这就是为什么这周以太坊下跌了4%到5%，比比特币跌得还多。

I think that's why Ether was down like four or 5% more than Bitcoin was this week.

另外，我认为Coinbase可能被特别针对了——虽然‘ singled out’这个词不太准确，但至少白宫似乎对Coinbase感到不满，或把矛头指向它，因为Coinbase是那个明确划出稳定币收益红线的平台。

There's also, I think Coinbase is kind of being maybe singled out isn't the right word, but at least the White House I think is angry at Coinbase or pointing at their Coinbase because Coinbase was the one that like we are drawing a red line at stablecoin yield.

如果我们不能有稳定币收益，他们就会说，‘这样的坏交易比没有交易更糟’。

And if we can't have stablecoin yield, like, that's when they say that line of bad deal is worse than no deal.

是的。

Yep.

还有其他人，比如我听了Peter van Wagenburg在Chopping Block访谈中的发言，他一直在为这个观点辩护。

And like other people, like I listened to the chopping block interview with Peter van Wachenburg, who's singing the praises.

再说一遍，也许他过度赞美了，但对市场结构法案持非常积极的态度。

Again, maybe that was a little bit more seeing the praises maybe a little bit much, but like, being very positive about market structure bill.

主要是Coinbase对这一法案中的稳定币收益部分特别在意，而目前这个

It's kinda just Coinbase who's like really hung up on the stable coin yield aspect of this, which this current I

我知道，这个协议确实如此，但大卫，他们也没错。

know, deal does but not give they're not wrong though, David.

是的。

Yeah.

他们没错。

They're not wrong.

该死的银行根本就不该有稳定币。

The freaking banks shouldn't have stablecoin Totally.

这是另一回事，需要明确的行动。

It's a separate thing, clarity action

总的来说，我赞同杰克·特拉文斯基的观点，即根本没有政策先例来保护银行的收益。

I on balance love Jake Travinsky's point of those like, there is no policy precedent to protect the banking yields whatsoever.

是的

Yeah.

银行存款。

Bank deposits.

那就不该成为政策的一部分。

That's what we that shouldn't be in policy.

尼克·卡特回复了布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗关于为Coinbase辩护、推动删除该法案的帖子，他说：干得好。

Nick Carter replied to Brian Armstrong's post about like defending Coinbase's position to pull out the bill, and he's and he's like, good job.

坚守立场。

Hold the line.

这至关重要。

It's critically important.

对。

Yeah.

因为如果我们在稳定币收益问题上不坚守立场，一旦失败，稳定币的发展将倒退一代人。

Because hold the line on stablecoin yield, you know, that would set back stable stablecoins for a generation if we don't get it.

对吧？

Right?

嗯嗯。

Mhmm.

所以这里存在一些分歧。

So there's some division here.

事实上，布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗说，我们与特朗普政府立场一致，但有一位记者埃莉诺·奥特罗，她一直在深入报道此事，实际上指出特朗普政府对Coinbase感到不满，认为如果Coinbase不配合、不尽快行动，他们就会撤回支持。

In fact, Brian Armstrong is saying that, like, no, we're in sync with the Trump White House, but there was a reporter, Eleanor Otero, who was doing great work on this, or actually said the Trump admin was mad at Coinbase, and just being like, if Coinbase isn't on board, it doesn't get their act together, we'll pull out.

这其中有一些来回拉扯，我们不知道真相到底如何，但我们知道，这是帕特里克·维特，他是白宫顾问，他引用了‘没有法案总比坏法案好’这种观点，并说，能说出这样的话是一种荣幸，这要归功于特朗普的胜利以及他组建的亲加密货币政府。

That's a little back and forth there that we don't know what the truth is, but we do know, this is Patrick Witt, he's an advisor to the White House, and he's quoting the no bill is better than a bad bill type of idea, and he's saying, what a privilege it is to be able to say those words, thanks to President Trump's victory and the pro crypto administration he has assembled.

别自欺欺人了。

Let's not kid ourselves.

这些都是特朗普的措辞。

Those are Trump words.

我一听到就知道是特朗普的风格。

I know Trump when I see it.