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无银行国度。
Bankless nation.
又一个周五，又过了一周。
Another Friday, another week.
该来汇总这周的Bankless内容了。
It's time for the Bankless weekly roll up.
瑞安，你最近怎么样？
Ryan, how are doing?
我很好，大卫。
I'm great, David.
我特别兴奋，因为庆祝了7月4日——建国二百五十年纪念。
I was really excited to celebrate the July 4, you know, the two hundred and fifty anniversary.
其实是在七月。
Is actually July.
这个
The This
我觉得这是第十次了吧？
I think is this the tenth?
以太坊今年已经成立十一年了。
This is the eleventh year of existence for Ethereum.
对吗？
Is that right?
七月？
July?
是的。
Yes.
没错。
Correct.
不对。
No.
是第十年吗？
Is it tenth?
是的，以太坊区块链是在2015年7月左右上线的。
Yeah, the Ethereum blockchain started some time in July in 2015.
所以算下来，以太坊今年已经十一岁了。
So this makes it Ethereum eleven years old.
对。
Yeah.
你觉得理论将来会怎么样？
So where do you think theory will
别忘了美国的独立日。
forget America's birthday?
生日快乐，以太坊。
Happy birthday Ethereum
再过两百五十年呢？
two fifty years from now?
你觉得以太坊将来会发展到什么地步？
You think where do you think Ethereum will be?
还在持续出块。
Still producing blocks.
给我一个
Give me
准确的价格预测。
an even price prediction.
到了两百五十年后，我不知道美元是不是还适合作为计价单位。
I don't know if the dollar is the correct denominator at that point in two hundred and fifty years.
我的意思是，美元确实有长寿的潜力，但能不能再撑两百五十年，我可说不准。
I mean, the dollar's got Lindy, but I don't know if it's got two hundred and fifty more years of Lindy.
这可不是在贬低以太坊已经走过的十一年。
Not to say anything about Ethereum's eleven years of Lindy.
反正我们那时候都不在了，那也不是我们该操心的事。
Well, we are not gonna be around, so it's not gonna be our problem.
除非你像布莱恩·约翰逊那样
Unless you do the Brian Johnson
事情是这样。
thing.
我觉得我有很大可能还活着，毕竟我至少也在努力这么做。
I I think there's a very solid chance that at least I will be around because I am at least trying half heartedly to do that.
那可能得找个新搭档了，我不确定自己能不能继续。
Well, might need a new, roll up co host then because I I'm not sure about myself.
他们不会干的。
They're not gonna do it.
那本周有什么？
What do
这周我们有什么新闻？
we got this week?
本周，与伊朗的停火协议结束了。
This week, the ceasefire with Iran is over.
美国在两天内对伊朗的80个目标发动了打击。
We, The United States struck 80 targets over two days across Iran.
伊朗反击了，针对巴林和科威特的美国基地，同时对伊朗的石油制裁也重新启动了。
Iran hit back with US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, and oil sanctions on Iran are back on.
那市场对这一切有什么反应？
So how are the markets responding to all of this?
这周我们是在交易时段内动手的。
We did it during market hours this week.
你知道，通常特朗普都会等到周五下午四点，市场收盘之后才行动。
You know, like, usually Trump waits for, you know, Friday at 4PM after the market closes.
真的吗？
That's he really?
是的。
Yeah.
真的，他就是这么干的。
Dude, he does.
他已经这么干过四次了。
Did that like four times.
就是周五下午四点啊。
Like, it's Friday at 4PM.
该动手打伊朗了。
It's time to bomb Iran.
可之前不是刚停火了吗？现在看来事儿好像结束了。
But there's a ceasefire, and then now it's seemingly over.
特朗普又得发话了。
Trump's got some words to say.
还有迈克尔·塞勒这号人物。
There's also Michael Saylor.
以前啊，说起来都像上辈子的事了，他卖过32个比特币，结果比特币一下跌了20%。
Once upon a time, you know, in distant memory, he sold 32 Bitcoin and Bitcoin dropped like 20%.
这周塞勒卖了3588个比特币，比特币反而涨了3%。
This week, Saylor sold 3,588 Bitcoin and Bitcoin went up 3%.
你之前跟我说，你觉得这标志着见底了。
You told me you think that marks the bottom.
咱们得好好聊聊你对这件事的看法。
We gotta dive into what your your thoughts are on that.
另外，Robinhood Chain 刚刚完成了第一个完整的生产周，出现了一个非常出色的使用场景。
Also, the Robinhood Chain finished its first full week in production with a killer use case that's emerging.
我们会具体说说这个场景是什么。
We'll talk about what that is.
你以前从来没见过这样的用法。
And you've never seen this use case before.
加密货币里出现了一个全新的趋势。
Brand new meta in crypto.
真的从来没出现过。
We've never seen it.
说到新东西，Vitalik 刚刚发布了以太坊的新路线图。
Speaking of brand new, there's a new Ethereum roadmap brought to you by Vitalik.
至少他是把这份计划公开了。
At least he published it.
他把这份计划发布了。
He pushed it out.
这个名字叫‘ Strawman ’。
It's called the Strawman.
我总觉得这名字应该是‘ Strawmap ’。
Really get the oh, feeling Strawmap.
哎呀，说错了。
Oops.
不是 Strawman。
Not Strawman.
我感觉他们本来想叫它以太坊 3.0，但最后没这么叫，可能是怕惹上麻烦。
I really get the feeling they wanted to call this Ethereum three dot 0, but like just didn't because of He
没提第三阶段的事。
didn't say the third phase.
我知道。
I know.
他没这么说。
He didn't say that.
直接说吧。
Just say it.
这就是 Ethereum 3.0，各位。
This is ethereum3.o, folks.
我们现在用的就是 Ethereum 3。
We're we're on Ethereum three
点三这个说法，我们待会儿再讨论。
dot We'll weigh in on that.
好的。
Okay.
我们从来就不清楚 1.0 什么时候结束、2.0 什么时候开始，现在又要重来一遍吗？
We never really knew when one dot o ended and 2.o started, and it's gonna be the same thing now?
2.0 是从合并开始的。
2.o started with the merge.
一版是十一年前、十年前整个项目启动的时候，因为那时候你……
1.o was when the whole thing kicked off eleven years ago, ten years ago, because you
是的，这话说得在理。
Yeah, that's fair.
好吧。
Okay.
合并就是二版。
The merge was two.
我想我们已经进入三版好一阵子了。
I guess we've been into for a while.
我确实这么觉得。
I did Yeah.
这有点像版本迭代，因为合并时我们替换了共识层，加了新的，但执行层还是老样子。
It's a little bit like theses shipped though because the merge, we we ejected the consensus layer and added a new one, but the execution layer stayed the same.
我们待会儿再细说。
We'll get into it.
我觉得这是以太坊3.0。
I think it's ethereum3.
至少是这样。
O at least.
不过咱们先聊聊伊朗，最近全球关注的大新闻。
But let's start with Iran, the the big news around the world.
伊朗那边到底发生了什么？
What happened with Iran?
七月八号和九号，美国对伊朗发动了两轮大规模空袭，总共打击了170个军事目标。
So two major waves of airstrikes on July eighth and ninth across Iran targeting a 170 military sites in total.
我觉得这次空袭规模相当大，确实算得上一次重击。
So I would imagine this was a pretty big in in terms of strikes, which was a pretty big one.
这次行动是对伊朗本周早些时候袭击霍尔木兹海峡三艘商船的直接报复，美国方面称这明显违反了现有的停火协议。
This was in direct retaliation for Iran attacking three commercial vessels in the Strait Of Hormuz earlier this week, which The United States characterized as a clear violation of the existing truce.
我猜他们的想法是，试试看往霍尔木兹海峡派船，看看伊朗会怎么反应。
So I'm guessing what happened here is, like, we decided to, like, see what we can do with pushing boats through the Strait Of Hormuz and seeing what Iran would allow.
伊朗那边就说，好啊，那我们就打那几艘船，结果真打了那三艘。
And Iran was like, well, we're gonna strike those ships, and they struck those three ships.
然后呢，美国就直接升级了。
And and then, you know, The United States just escalated.
所以现在就变成这样了。
And so here we are.
我觉得关键问题是，停火协议算不算结束了？
So I think the big question is, is the ceasefire over?
我们是不是又跟伊朗打起来了？
Like, are we just back to war with Iran?
咱们去听听唐纳德本人怎么说吧。
Let's go ask, the Donald himself.
看看他到底讲了什么。
Let's see what he said.
你们有什么问题吗？
Do have any questions?
先生
Mister
总统，停火结束了吗？
president, ceasefire over?
停火协议算不算废了？
Is is the ceasefire done?
那份备忘录还有效吗？
Is the MOU dead?
这是个很有意思的问题。
It's a very interesting question.
在我看来，停火已经结束了。
To me, I think it's over.
我不想再跟他们打交道了。
I don't wanna deal with them anymore.
他们就是渣滓。
They're scum.
你知道什么叫渣滓吗？
You know what scum is?
他们就是渣滓。
They're scum.
他们是一群病态的人。
They're sick people.
他们由一群病态的人领导。
They're led by sick people.
他们残忍又暴力。
And they're they're vicious, violent people.
如果他们有核武器，肯定会用。
And if they had a nuclear weapon, they'd use it.
在我看来，这事已经结束了。
As far as I'm concerned, it's over.
我会跟我们的谈判代表沟通。
I'll speak to our negotiators.
他们想谈条件。
They wanna negotiate.
他们是好人。
They're good people.
史蒂夫·惠特卡夫、贾里德·库什纳，但他们得回来找我。
Steve Whitcuff, Jared Kushner, but they have to come back to me.
在我看来，跟他们打交道纯粹是浪费时间。
As far as I'm concerned, it's just a waste of time dealing with them.
他们是骗子。
They're liars.
我们谈妥了，可他呢？要是我和他达成协议，算数的是我这边，他一出去就开始放话。
We make a deal, and they well, if I make a deal with him, we have a deal, and he goes out, he talks.
我们达成协议了。
We make a deal.
大家都同意了。
Everyone's agreed.
不能有核武器。
No nuclear weapon.
我们达成协议。
We make a deal.
他们出去对媒体说，我们根本就没谈过这事。
They go outside, talk to the press, they say we never even talked about it.
他们有问题。
There's something wrong with them.
他们疯了。
They're cuckoo.
在我看来，这事完了。
As far as I'm concerned, it's over.
他说，在我看来，这事完了。
As far as I'm concerned, it's over is what he says.
现在，瑞安，你本以为市场会一片混乱。
Now, Ryan, you would expect markets to just be in turmoil.
踢球还是石油。
Kick kick or oil.
就在这儿。
There.
我就想说，是啊。
I just wanna, like Yeah.
听起来挺夸张的，但其实也挺夸张的。
That sounds pretty over, but it's also That sounds quite over.
这是唐纳德·特朗普。
It's Donald Trump.
好吧。
Okay.
这就是唐纳德·特朗普。
That's Donald Trump.
所以我感觉他以前说过这些话。
So I feel like he said those words previously.
他当时在说要终结伊朗文明之类的言论。
What did he talking about ending the, you know, Iranian civilization, all sorts of things.
是的。
Yeah.
然后又突然说，这些人真不错。
And then was back like, oh, these guys are great.
咱们做个协议吧。
Let's make a deal.
我们谈成了一个很棒的协议。
We got a great deal.
这些人很优秀，值得尊重，可现在他又回到以前的样子了。
These are beautiful people, respect, and now he's back to what he was before.
所以我也不清楚。
So I don't know.
换作别人这么说，我肯定觉得这太夸张了。
From anyone else, I'd be like, that's this is so over.
但对特朗普来说，就只能说算了。
But from Trump, it's like, okay.
没错。
Right.
我觉得市场反映的正是你所说的。
And I think the markets are saying exactly what you're saying.
所以看油价来判断这事到底有多严重，其实也没那么夸张。
So looking at the oil prices as like the indice of how over is this, it's not that over.
准确说，是处于中间状态。
Or actually, it's somewhere in the middle.
油价从每桶68美元涨到了71美元，涨了5%。
So like oil prices jumped from $68 for WTI up to $71 That's up 5%.
但放在整个战争的大背景下看。
Which is in the grand scheme of the war.
这点波动根本算不了什么。
That's like nothing.
是的，把这个图表放大一点看。
Yeah, zoom out a little bit on this chart.
这是整场战争的走势。
This is this is the entire war.
这是整个过程的走势。
This is the entire way.
这是整个战争的全过程。
This is the entire way entire war.
对。
Yeah.
这些是周线图。
So these are weekly candles.
两百周。
Two hundred week.
我注意到你
I see you're
这些是周线图。
doing this is the weekly candles.
那我现在切换到日线图。
So here, I'll go to daily candles.
我明白了。
I get it.
所以呢，说实话，我们目前情况还不错。
And so yeah, like, I mean, we're doing fine.
是的，因为在战争期间，我们多次高于100，对吧？
Yeah, because we were above 100 at various points in the war, right?
最高曾到过112。
Like, as high as 112.
所以这个是
So this is
最高到过112。
as high as 112.
之后价格在85到112之间波动。
And then it was ranging between 85 and 112.
三天前的低点是67美元，当时还低于72美元。
And then the lows, which we were at three days ago was $67 And we were at below $72
所以市场觉得油价差不多到头了？
So the market kind of thinks oil prices, right?
市场觉得这事已经结束了。
The market thinks it's over.
我的意思是，不是那个意思。
I mean, not sorry.
还没结束。
Not over.
就是觉得没什么大不了的。
It's just like not a big deal.
他们只是
Like, they're
没什么大不了的。
a big deal.
好吧。
Okay.
对。
Yeah.
在我看来，特朗普政府在战争最激烈的时候，对市场预期的管理做得非常出色。
And I I think, like, the Trump administration did a phenomenal job, in my opinion, doing expectation management with the markets as it was to the war when the war was actually in its height.
他们几乎只在周末行动，周一到周五交易时段就和平得像没事一样，但一到周末，立刻进入战争状态。
They really just like they only struck on the weekends, then it was like peace time between Monday through Friday during market hours, but then once the weekend hit, it was war time.
这太离谱了。
And That's insane.
他们这么干了这么久。
They did that so long.
现在我们又对伊朗发动打击，市场却无动于衷，只觉得油价涨个3%而已，接着该干嘛干嘛。
They like now that, like, we're striking Iran again, the markets like whatever, like we'll add 3% to the oil prices, but we're moving on.
我的意思是，
I mean,
指数里倒是有点体现，但今天纳斯达克和SPY都涨得特别漂亮。
it showed up a little bit in the indices, but really like the NASDAQ and the s SPY are fantastically green today.
周二那天确实血流成河，但也就一天而已。
So there was like a red bloodbath on like Tuesday, But it was one day.
这等于说市场在主导这场战争的走向，听起来挺奇怪的，但也许事实就是这样。
That kind of implies that the market is calling the shots on this war, which is sort of bizarre, but maybe that's what's going on.
这也说明特朗普在这方面其实挺软的。
But it also implies that I mean, Trump has a really of real weakness around this.
如果伊朗方面看懂了这层逻辑，他们完全可以像你刚才说的那样分析：只要股市一跌，特朗普就不敢动手，那他们就能趁机拿捏他。
If Iran knows what's happening, they could do the same analysis you just did and just be like, Trump is not going to do anything if the markets go down, and so they can exploit that.
他们有的是办法利用这一点。
They have all sorts of ways to exploit that.
我想大概是这样。
I guess
我不这么看。
That's not my interpretation.
我的看法是，市场根本不在乎。
My interpretation is that the market doesn't care.
特朗普想做什么就做什么，真正把他逼到角落的不是伊朗，而是市场。
Donald Trump gets to do whatever he wants because the market is what will push Donald into a corner, not Iran.
你看，特朗普刚对伊朗发动了两天的空袭，市场呢？就当没这回事，稍微抖两下就完了。
And so like, Donald just got away with two days of strikes across Iran and the market was like, whatever, we're just gonna cough a little bit.
我选择不去理会它。
I'm choosing to just like not let it affect my
你完全有权利不去想这事。
I think you're allowed to not think about it.
市场就是这样的。
I I that's what the market's like.
这么做。
Doing.
我一直在这么做。
That's what I've been doing.
市场也认同我的看法。
That's what the market agrees with me on that.
我们来看看加密货币的价格。
Let's look at the crypto prices.
比特币本周涨了2%。
So Bitcoin up 2% this week.
现在是六万三千美元。
We're at $63,000.
以太坊本周也涨了2%，报1万7千5百美元。
ETH up 2% this week at $17.50.
我觉得最有趣的是Stretch。
And then stretch I think is the most interesting thing.
Stretch目前交易价是86美元，比策略价低了14%。
Trading at $86 stretch from strategy it's trading 14% off.
我觉得现在大家对持有Stretch、以及86美元收益水平的接受度，正在慢慢找到一个平衡点——100美元太高了，70美元又太低。
I think this is kind of starting to like find some sort of equilibrium about like how comfortable people are holding stretch and the yield at $86 $100 is too high, but $70 is too low.
另一个能反映牛市健康状况的指标，Ryan，就是Stretch和Master Micro Strategy的表现，这其实是加密市场情绪的风向标。
And the other indicator of like health of this bull market, Ryan, that's the stretch and master micro strategy is like the crypto health of side of things.
DRAM就像AI股票的动量指标。
DRAM is like the momentum of the AI stocks.
它的价格从最高80美元跌到60美元，现在又回升到65美元左右。
It's kinda come off of as high as from $80 down to $60 and up to 65.
所以我觉得，内存股和AI这一轮行情，现在正在进入盘整阶段。
And so I I kinda think the memory stocks, the AI trade is kinda consolidating right now.
价格既没大幅上涨，也没继续下跌，算是暂时停顿了一下。
It's not going too high, not going too low, and it's a little bit of a of a pause.
但就我来看，市场的大趋势依然站在我们这边。
But as far as I'm concerned, like, the market the trend is still in the market's favor.
这些都是我的个人观点。
These are all my takes.
那迈克尔·塞拉这次大手笔抛售呢？
What about this what about this big Michael Saylor sale then?
市场居然消化了，这有点出人意料，毕竟这是两亿美元的交易。
I mean, the market seemed to absorb that, which was somewhat unexpected, I suppose, because this is a $200,000,000 sale here.
不过呢，这还不到微策略总持仓的百分之零点五。
I mean, that's not it's it's less than, it's about half a percent of all MicroStrategy holdings.
但这是他们第一次大规模卖出。
But that's the first time that strategy has sold in size.
这可不是小数目。
It's a big amount.
这说明可能还有更多抛售要来，毕竟以前大家觉得他只会买进，从不卖出。
It indicates more to come or more could come from somebody previously in previous regimes thought of as just an accumulator.
你懂的。
You know?
塞拉这人，从来不卖。
Strategy, Saylor does not sell.
他只买不卖，但市场根本没当回事。
It only buys and outsold, and the market shrugged that off.
那这到底意味着什么？
So what what happened here?
你觉得这说明了什么？
And what do you think this means?
对我来说，最关键的信息是，这次萨勒卖的量比上次多太多了。
The biggest piece of information for me on on this is Saylor sold a lot in comparison to what he sold last time.
上次他卖了32个以太坊，或者3032个比特币。
So 32 ETH or $30.32 Bitcoin is what he sold last time.
这次他卖了3588个，多得多了。
He sold 3,588, so way more.
他套现了2.16亿美元，差不多够覆盖一个半月的股息支出。
He raised $216,000,000 which is like one and a half months of dividend coverage.
所以从争取时间的角度看，他其实没为自己争取到多少余地。
So in terms of like buying time, he didn't buy himself that much time.
所以我们现在是从零星的小额抛售，变成稍微大一点的比特币卖出。
So it's we're going from like micro sales to small sales of Bitcoin.
但你说得对，他买入才过了四十五天。
But still to your point, it's only forty five days he bought.
是的。
Yeah.
你说得没错。
You're right.
这数量还是太小了。
It's still very small.
我觉得迈克尔·塞拉卖出反而是个看涨信号，因为在他眼里，他本人必须从市场上彻底淡出才行。
And so I do think it's bullish that Michael Saylor is selling because he needs to become, in my opinion, irrelevant to the market.
一旦塞拉的抛售压力这么大，又背负着巨额股息义务，比特币的价格就会被这些因素主导——因为市场只会盯着这些事看。
And when there is such a large overhang from Saylor and he has such a large obligation for dividends, that's just going to define the Bitcoin price because that's what the market is going to be looking at.
在我看来，塞拉得赶紧把比特币吐出来一些，才能洗清自己的包袱，把三十多个月的股息覆盖能力给稳住。
And Saylor needs to, in my opinion, puke up some Bitcoin so he can absolve himself of some sins and like get thirty plus months of dividend coverage shored up.
所以他确实在卖，但在我看来，他卖得还不够。
And so he sold he's selling, but in my opinion, he's not selling enough.
但值得注意的是，尽管萨莱尔卖出了3588个比特币，本周比特币价格还是上涨了。
But it is notable that the Bitcoin price has gone up this week despite Saylor selling 3,588 Bitcoin.
你觉得市场是不是已经接受了他迟早会抛售一些比特币这个事实？
Do you think Bitcoin price in the market is just saying they're accepting the fact that he's going to puke up some some Bitcoin?
只要他能有条不紊地抛售，让市场慢慢消化，不让人意外，那就没问题。
But so long as he pukes it up in an orderly fashion, the way everyone can kind of absorb, but it's not unexpected.
你知道，市场最怕的就是不确定性。
You know, markets hate uncertainty.
对，就是这样。
This is Yeah.
市场至少能预见到一些确定性。
Sort of some certainty in the market that they can predict.
没错。
Yeah.
当然。
Sure.
他会慢慢抛售一些，而且会按照计划有条不紊地进行。
He's gonna puke up a little bit, he's gonna do it in orderly fashion according to a plan.
不会出现慌乱抛售或崩盘的情况。
It's not going to be a graceless collapse or unwind.
这只不过是一件现在会正常发生的事。
It's just going to be something that now happens.
我想市场对此持看涨态度，因为不确定性减少了。
And I guess the market is bullish on that because they've removed some uncertainty.
这就是策略解决它自身问题的方式。
This is how strategy is going to solve its its s trc.
是的，优先股的难题。
Yeah, preferred shares dilemma.
是的，融资问题。
Yeah, funding problem.
是的。
Yeah.
是的，我本来以为他卖了那32个比特币后，比特币会从7万跌到5万8，或者1千，反正就是大跌，但他卖完之后没跌多少。
Yeah, I wouldn't he sold his 32 Bitcoin and then Bitcoin dropped like 20% from like 70 down to like 58 or 1,000 or whatever.
我觉得不是市场对这32个比特币的出售做出的反应，而是市场早就预判了更多类似的抛售即将到来。
Like I don't think it was the market responding to that 32 Bitcoin sale, it was the market anticipating much larger cells like this coming in the future.
也许这次只是这类操作的开始，希望接下来还会有更多——在我看来，这反而是好事，因为萨伊尔终于把一些比特币抛出来，让市场能松一口气，继续往前走。
And perhaps this is the first of a handful of these hopefully, in my opinion, the first of many, whereas Saylor actually does, again, puke up some Bitcoin to shore up his defenses so we the market can kinda move on.
所以，一个半月前比特币价格大跌，其实是市场提前消化了未来这些抛售压力，包括这次的，以及后续可能的，结果反而让萨伊尔卖了个低价，执行得很差。
And so the drop in Bitcoin price way back way back a month and a half ago or whatever was front running all of that future selling, this selling, and all of that future selling, giving Saylor kind of terrible execution on the sale.
他相当于在高点买入，又在低点卖出。
Like he's buying the top and then selling the bottom.
但不管怎样，我觉得这正是我们清理掉这笔债务所必须经历的过程。
But nonetheless, like this is I think what it takes for us to kind of just clear this debt that we have.
那我问你，你认为这可能意味着什么？
Well, let me ask you if you what you think this might imply.
所以你觉得，现在市场和萨勒的这个问题似乎已经解决了，对吧？我们已经有了解决的路径。
So do you think, now that the market has and Saylor's seemingly resolved the the problem here, right, we have a path towards resolution.
只要你继续以这种有条不紊的方式进行抛售，不管多久一次都没问题。
You just keep doing this type of sale in an orderly way, however frequently you want to do it.
现在这已经不是个问题了。
It's not a problem right now.
整个过程会非常平稳。
It's going to be very orderly.
这样一来，萨勒和MicroStrategy崩盘的风险就消除了。
So that removes the Saylor MicroStrategy blow up risk.
我想问的是，上次我们看到市场触底的时候，你觉得概率大概是多少？50%吗？
I guess what I'm asking, your probability last time that we saw the bottom was what, like 50%?
40%到50%。
40 to 50%.
对。
Yeah.
是的
Yeah.
这个概率是上升了还是下降了？
Has that gone up or down?
上升了。
It's gone up.
因为我们当初买的时候，价格大概是五万七千美元，而萨勒当时正在通过这次出售抛售。
So because when we bought them, they're like $57,000 Saylor was selling into that with this sale.
所以当我之前说有百分之四十到五十的概率时，我根本不知道萨勒当时正在抛售。
And so to me, like, and so when I said it was 40 to 50% probability, I didn't know no one knew that Saylor was selling at that time.
如果我知道萨勒当时正在底部抛售，我会想，哦，他这是被迫在底部出货。
Had I known that Saylor was actually selling into that, I'd be like, oh, he's the forced seller selling into the bottom.
这才是底部该有的样子。
This is what a bottom looks like.
所以我的判断概率在提高。
So my probability is going up.
所以你现在是在等，你的意思是，你觉得有六成左右的概率了？
So now you're waiting your waiting is basically that you're you're what 60% something
像这样？
like this?
六成概率已经见到底部了，
60% chance already seen the bottom that
五万八千是底部，
fifty eight ks was the bottom
我觉得五万七才是最低点。
57 I think was the pico bottom.
明白了。
Okay.
那你呢？
What what about you?
这有改变你的看法吗？
Has that changed your
你的判断没变吗？
ability has not changed?
我觉得自己没受萨勒尔那件事的影响。
I think I'm like remain under unaffected by the Saylor thing.
我可能更受迈克尔·纳托和他的工作的影响。
And I'm probably more influenced by Michael Nato and the work that he's doing.
他的观点是？
His Wait.
我这周还没听你们那期节目。
I haven't listened to you guys' episode yet this week.
你们觉得怎么样？
What what do guys
他认为我们已经见底的概率是45%。
His probability that we've seen the bottom is 45%.
所以他觉得我们还没见底、还会创新低的概率是65%。
So his probability that we have not seen the bottom, that we go to lower lows is 65%.
好的。
Okay.
他说，55000左右设限价单。
And he's like, limit orders at 55 k or so.
55000？
55.
为什么？
Why?
我们觉得，这根本没区别。
We're like, it's the same same.
这是第一组限价单。
That's the first limit set of limit orders.
然后是50000的限价单。
Then you got 50 k limit orders.
明白了。
Okay.
如果情况真的恶化，价格可能会跌到四十多。
Then you could get into this into the forties if things get really ugly.
四十左右差不多相当于从历史高点回撤了六成多，大概64%的样子，这和我们之前看到的趋势是吻合的。
And like, 40 is kind of a 60, you know, 64%, something like this drawdown from all time highs, which should be commensurate with kind of the trend that we've seen.
他的分析角度不太一样。
And his reasoning is kind of different.
他在关注不同群体之间比特币的流转情况。
He's looking at, you know, the coin switching hands from different cohorts.
他也在看交易量的数据。
And he's also looking at volume numbers.
他说，这种典型的市场恐慌见底时刻，通常都会伴随着巨大的成交量，但我们还没看到。
And he's like, we haven't seen the volume that we typically see in these kind of mark the bottom capitulation type events.
他特别想看到明显的买盘和卖盘放量。
He really wants to see some heavy volume on Right.
买入和卖出的
The buying and the selling I
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我同意这个观点。
would agree with that.
信号。
Signal.
也就是说，这次底部并不是那种剧烈震荡的底部，而之前的几次底部都是剧烈震荡的。
That it was not this bottom was not a violent bottom, and all the other bottoms have been violent.
话虽如此，你看，他的投资组合现在大概70%是加密货币，30%是现金，对吧？
That said, look, his portfolio is something like 70% in crypto now 30% cash, right?
所以他的观点还是偏向于，你知道的，
So he's still the weight of, you know,
对
right
看多的一方。
on the the bullish side of things.
他增加了多头敞口。
He's leaned exposure.
就在10点10分之前不久。
Like after like right before 10:10.
他把资金转到了80%现金，对吧？
He went to like 80% cash, right?
是的，他确实这么做了。
Yeah, he did.
没错。
Yes.
他彻底转变了策略，全部买入了。
He's totally switched switched and bought in.
他只是操作得比较稳健。
He just he's he's he's pretty good doing
比我的节奏慢一些。
it slower than I am.
对。
Yeah.
慢一点
A little slower
来操作
to call
出手的时候慢了一点。
a little slower on the draw there.
关于萨勒的事，我还想跟你聊一个角度。
There's one more angle of the Saylor thing that I want to talk to you about.
因为我觉得这个其实挺重要的。
Because I think it's kind of actually important.
他们之前发布过一份声明，或者说是关于出售比特币的文件。
There was this like they had they released the like statement or whatever they're filing about the selling of their Bitcoin price.
里面还附带了一大堆措辞。
And there was like a bunch of words that has come with this.
现在他们在数字战略、变现框架这些事上，分成了三类。
And so there are now there are three buckets in their like digital framework, monetization framework shenanigans,
就是他们打算怎么卖
which is just how they're going to sell
或者说是准备怎么卖
or how they're to sell.
所以他们对比特币的销售策略分成了三类
And so there's three different categories for how strategy sells bit coin.
第一类是建立储备金，他们已经授权自己可以出售12.5亿美元的比特币来充实美元储备
There is the build the reserve category, which they have that's the authorization that they have authorized themselves to sell $1,250,000,000 for the USD reserve.
这是一种被授权的比特币出售方式
That's one type of authorized sale of Bitcoin.
这其实就是为了应急备用，留点现金缓冲
So that's just like emergency fund cash padding, that kind of thing.
所以储备金就是指这个吗？
That's what the reserve is?
应急基金就是纯现金
Emergency fund is just cash.
晴天储蓄，应急资金。
Day, rainy day fund.
对。
Yeah.
然后是覆盖优先股，也就是通过出售比特币来支付公司对优先股和债务所欠的固定股息和利息，或者在支付后补充储备金。
Then there's cover the preferreds, which is you sell Bitcoin to pay the fixed dividends and interest strategy owes on its preferred shares and debt, or to replenish the reserves after they pay them.
当管理层决定出售比特币时，这比发行普通股更划算。
When management decides to sell Bitcoin beats, beats issuing common stock.
在发放月度或双周股息之后，他们被允许立即出售比特币来补足这些分红。
After they pay out like their monthly dividend or biweekly or however long they're doing it, they're allowed to sell Bitcoin to immediately replenish those dividends.
第三个用途是用于股票回购，他们可以出售比特币来回购优先股和MSCR股票，每类最多10亿美元，比特币销售收入还可覆盖相关的税费和费用。
And then there's a third bucket, which is just to fund buybacks, which they're allowed to sell Bitcoin to repurchase its preferred shares, MSCR stock up to $1,000,000,000 of each with Bitcoin sales potentially covering related taxes, fees, and expenses.
当然。
Sure.
所以，他们出售比特币主要有这三种用途。
So there's three different buckets for how they sell Bitcoin.
这12.5亿美元的授权额度，他们其实没必要设，但还是设了，这次卖了2160亿美元的比特币，完全没动用这个额度。
That 1,250,000,000 authorization that they authorize themselves to, which they don't need to do, but they did, is is untouched by this sale of $216,000,000,000 a million dollars of Bitcoin.
这次卖币属于覆盖优先股的类别，不是用来补充储备金的。
This that is the cover the preferreds category, not the build the reserves category.
至于补充储备金这个类别，他们仍然保留了12.5亿美元的比特币出售授权。
The build the reserves category, they have still authorized themselves $1,250,000,000 of a of a permission to sell Bitcoin.
这周的这次出售，不属于那个类别。
And this sale from this week is not in that bucket.
它属于覆盖优先股的类别，这个类别没有上限，他们可以卖任意数量的比特币来支付优先股分红。
It's in the cover the preferreds bucket, which is a limitless bucket, they can sell as much Bitcoin as they need to cover the preferreds.
明白了，所以你们的意思是，这周所有的出售都不算在之前那个额度里，我们之前给的额度仍然有效。
Okay, so they're just saying all of the sales we made this week didn't count toward the number And we gave
你们之前那个额度也依然有效。
you last also redeem that.
我们特意说明过，这些出售不计入那个额度。
We authorize that to not count.
对。
Right.
所以除了说明卖币可能还会继续，我也看不出别的意思了。
So don't know what I get from that other than the selling could continue and Yeah.
他们想干嘛就干嘛。
They can do whatever they want.
说这么多词干嘛？
What are all these words for?
嗯，我是说
Well, I'm
总算把这事说清楚了，谢谢。
glad we talked about that and cleared all that out, dude.
接下来是什么？
What do we have next?
接下来我们要聊的是本周刚发现的一个在Robinhood Chain上的全新应用场景。
Okay, coming up next, we're gonna talk about the brand new innovative use case on Robinhood Chain that has been recently discovered this week.
没人料到会这样。
No one saw it coming.
另外，伊朗方面还要跟我们聊聊以太坊3.0。
And then also, Iran's gonna talk to us about Ethereum 3 dot 0.
我们有个新的Strawmap要聊一聊。
We got a new Strawmap to talk about.
该我了。
It's my turn.
不是什么Talkstort。
Not not a TALKSTORT.
这些都只是开始，不过在那之前，先让我们听听几位赞助商，正是他们让这个节目成为可能。
It's all of that and more, but first we're gonna talk to some of these fantastic sponsors that make the show possible.
交易正在改变，不是慢慢变，就是现在。
Trading is changing, not gradually, right now.
OKX刚刚在App里直接推出了交易机器人。
OKX just launched TradingBots directly inside the OKX app.
网格交易、定投、套利，你设好策略后，它就会全天候自动执行。
Grid trading, DCA, arbitrage, you set your strategy once, and it executes around the clock.
不用整天盯着图表，不用手动下单，睡着了也不会错过任何机会。
No staring at charts all day, no manual entries, no missing moves while you're asleep.
这次，自动化交易终于变得简单了。
And for the first time, automated trading actually feels simple.
但OKX的野心不止于交易。
But OKX is thinking bigger than just trading.
他们还推出了代理支付协议，一个开放标准，让AI代理可以直接在链上完成完整的商业交易。
They also launched the Agent Payments Protocol, an open standard that lets AI agents execute full commercial transactions onchain.
以太坊基金会、Uniswap和AWS都已经在使用它，现在它已经在美国正式上线了。
The Ethereum Foundation, Uniswap, and AWS are already building on it, and now it's live inside The United States.
新用户只要存款并交易，就能通过Bankless链接领取最高500美元的比特币。
And new users who deposit and trade can get up to $500 in Bitcoin through the Bankless link.
更多详情请查看节目笔记里的链接。
The link is in the show notes to learn more.
这不是投资建议。
Not investment advice.
纽约和德克萨斯州无法使用。
Not available in New York or Texas.
市场从来不会只动一个资产。
Markets don't move one asset at a time.
今天可能是比特币，明天是英伟达，接着是黄金，然后是标普500。
One day it's Bitcoin, the next Nvidia, then gold, and then the S and P.
但大多数交易员还是得在不同平台、不同账户和不同资金池之间来回管理投资组合。
But most traders are still managing their portfolio across different platforms, different accounts, and different pools of capital.
BITGET彻底改变了这一点。
BITGET just changed that.
他们新推出的STOX 2.0产品让你可以直接用USDT交易代币化股票，全都在你平时用的同一个App里完成。
Their new STOX two point o product lets you trade tokenized equities directly with USDT, all inside the same app you already use for crypto.
这不只是又一个代币化股票产品。
This is not just another tokenized stock product.
Stocks 2.0 专为更深的流动性、更快的成交速度和市场上最低的手续费设计，手续费仅低至 0.04%，并且与标的股票实现 1:1 的收益挂钩。
Stocks two point o is designed around deeper liquidity, faster execution, and the lowest fees on the market at just point zero four percent and one to one economic exposure to the underlying stock.
股息、拆股以及其他公司行为都会自动反映在你的持仓中，确保你的头寸始终与你真正想投资的资产保持一致。
Dividend, stock splits, and other corporate actions are reflected automatically, helping your position stay aligned with the asset you actually want exposure to.
一个平台，一个账户，覆盖多个市场——加密资产、股票、大宗商品等等，全部用 USDT 就能交易。
One platform, one account, multiple markets, crypto equities, commodities, and more, all accessible with USDT.
BITGET。
BITGET.
更聪明地交易。
Trade smarter.
点击节目简介里的链接，立即开始交易。
Start trading today through the link in the show notes.
这不是投资建议。
This is not investment advice.
上周，Robinhood Chain 迎来了上线。
Last week, we had the rise of Robinhood Chain.
这周，它正式上线了。
This week, it opened for business.
跨链桥已经打通，你现在可以去买代币化的股票，把钱投入 Morpho，在 Uniswap 上交易，还能拿到 7% 的收益。
The bridges opened up, and you're able to go and buy tokenized stocks and put money into morpho and trade on Uniswap and get 7% yield.
你知道发生了什么吗，瑞安？
You know what happened, Ryan?
是啊，大家都做了你提到的那些事？
Yeah, people did all of those things that you said?
你是说
Is that what
肯定有人这么做了。
I'm sure some people did.
对。
Yeah.
但大家真正兴奋的到底是什么？
But what is actually everyone's excited about?
最近怎么样？
What's up?
迷因币。
Meme coins.
迷因币。
Meme coins.
我跟你讲讲现在在Robinhood链上特别火的那个迷因币吧？
Can I tell you about the meme coin that's on Robinhood Chain that people are excited about?
叫什么名字？
What's it called?
这周最火的迷因币是哪个？
What's the meme coin of the week?
叫Cashcat。
It's called Cashcat.
传说中，Robinhood以前刚起步的时候就叫这个名字。
And the lore is that this is what Robinhood was called before it was called Robinhood.
而且弗拉德在2021年发过一条关于这个的推文。
And there's a tweet from Vlad from 2021 about this.
人们马上找到了这个梗，价格瞬间飙升，市值涨到了八千万美元左右。
And people immediately found that meme and it jumped up to a 100 and like $80,000,000 in market cap or something.
由于Robinhood链上膜因币交易太火爆，太多人想把资金跨链到Robinhood链，结果所有跨链桥的ETH都用光了，流动性彻底枯竭。
And then because of the flurry of activity of memecoins on Robinhood Chain, so many people wanted to bridge the two Robinhood Chain that all the bridges ran out of ETH, ran out of liquidity on the Robinhood Chain.
所有人都在往那边跨链。
Just like everyone bridged over.
是的，我们这边真的没ETH了，帮不上忙。
Like, yeah, we're we don't have any ETH for you.
想跨链的话，得去官方桥试试。
You have to go to the Canonical Bridge if you want to go on.
于是大家一窝蜂冲进Robinhood链抢购膜因币。
And so like people just rushed in to buy meme coins on Robinhood Chain.
我差点忘了，新链一上线，第一件事就是大家疯狂买这条链的本土膜因币。
I forgot that like when a chain launches, the first thing that happens there is just people just buy the native meme coins of the chain.
但那是
But that's
总是会发生的。
always happen, though.
我是说，Kraken的链就没这样。
I mean, didn't happen for Kraken's Inc.
这得看情况。
Like, it like, it just depends.
确实如此。
It's true.
很多链都没这情况。
Doesn't happen for lots of chains.
但你其实希望它发生。
But they they you would want it to.
你当然希望它发生。
You would want it to.
每个人都希望如此。
Everyone would want it to.
也许我们待会儿聊聊原因，但看起来这简直像是Robinhood创始人弗拉德·特内夫在公开支持。
Maybe we'll talk about why, but, like, this seems like an endorsement almost from Vlad Tenev, the founder of Robinhood.
他发了条推文说：我们在打造Robinhood链时，目标是成为现实世界资产的最佳平台，但用来搞迷因币也特别棒。
He tweet tweeted this, while we're building Robinhood Chain to be the best chain for real world assets, it works great for memes too.
你看，就是这样。
There you go.
确实很适合做迷因币。
Does work great for memes.
区块链确实很适合做迷因币。
Blockchains are do work great for memes.
这一点我们其实早就知道了。
That is something that we've actually known for quite a long time.
所以现在，所有迷因币交易者都在盯着Robinhood和弗拉德，心里琢磨：你们是不是要上迷因币了？
And so now like all the meme coin traders are like looking at Robinhood and Vlad being like, are you guys gonna list the memes?
是啊。
Like Yeah.
但你得支持梗币经济。
But you have to support the meme economy.
你们得在Robinhood主应用上上线Cashcat，我们需要你们支持梗币。
You need to list Cashcat on the main Robinhood app because we need you guys to support the memes.
我觉得人们对这件事抱的希望太大了。
And I think people are just have way too much hope for that.
我觉得这不太可能
I don't think that's happening at
发生。
all.
我觉得梗币在Robinhood上爆火的原理，其实是用户覆盖面。
Guess the theory of why a meme coin would explode on Robinhood is distribution.
你有大约两千五百万用户在交易梗币。
You've got, you know, 25,000,000 trading demecoins
在Base链上。
on base.
Base链上的表情包币，然后Coinbase再上架。
Meme coins on base, and then coinbase will list it.
是的。
Yeah.
但Robinhood的用户群体还没怎么接触过这类币。
But with Robinhood, it's it's untouched people too.
对吧？
Right?
情况其实也差不多。
It's like, yeah, the same.
还没
Haven't
被表情包币坑过。
been burned by meme coins before.
我们可以把它们销毁掉。
We could burn them.
没错。
That's right.
我们可以成为那个销毁它们的人。
We could be the guys that burn them.
这是一群全新的潜在用户，我们也可以让他们参与进来。
This is a whole new audience we could burn.
这是一群全新的用户，完全有机会挖掘出他们的潜力。
Is a whole new audience like that could tap into the potential.
我觉得这可能就是其中一部分理论依据。
I think that is probably some of the theory.
这是Robinhood式的分发方式。
It's Robinhood distribution.
我的意思是，你纠正我一下。
I mean, correct me.
我不是
I'm not
一个模因币交易者。
a meme coin trader.
那你知道
What do
这事儿吗？
I know about this?
没错。
That's right.
没错。
That's right.
我觉得就算Robinhood真这么做了——我不认为他们会这么做，也不该这么做——因为你不应该仅仅因为想支持他们，就把模因币推给普通散户投资者。
And I think people are getting even if Robinhood does do that, which I don't think they will, and I don't think that they ought to, because you shouldn't be in my opinion, distributing meme coins to your retail buying, like, just because you want to support them.
对吧？
Not?
为什么要对大卫设限呢？
Why gatekeep David?
为什么要设限呢？
Why gatekeep?
你真是个爱设限的人。
You're such a gatekeeper.
对不起。
I'm sorry.
我一直在听那些在推特上持有Cashcat的人，一直在说Vlad清单、Cashcat、Vlad清单。
I'm listening to all the people who own Cashcat on Twitter and be like Vlad list Cashcat Vlad list Cashcat.
我听到的全是Vlad，快把你的客户清掉吧。
All I'm hearing is Vlad, let me dump
对你的客户下手。
on your customers.
这个案例。
The case.
这一直都是这样。
This is always the case.
根本不可能。
Like, there's no way.
根本不可能，而且Robinhood做事一向很慢。
There's no way and like Robinhood moves slowly.
某种程度上，这反而帮了他们，让他们能以第十七个进入者的身份布局以太坊二层网络。
And, you know, to some degree, that's actually benefited them, because they've been able to be like, seventeenth mover advantage on Ethereum layer twos.
对。
Yeah.
他们只需要把现有的用户渠道带过来就行，要是跑得太快，反而会卷入那个像西部荒野般的实验阶段。
And they just get to bring all their distribution and like going fast, would they would have been in the experiment, like wild west phase.
那根本不是他们的风格。
And like, that's not their deal.
所以我根本不指望Robinhood会上架Cashcat。
And so I don't like, I'm not holding my breath for Robinhood to list Cashcat.
不，你是觉得他们应该
No, do you think they should you're saying you think they
应该吗？我觉得他们应该
should do I think that they should
使用这种隔离的沙盒环境吗？
that segmented sandbox?
你是希望
Do you want you want
让我去找一些梗图，下载Robinhood钱包，而不是Robinhood应用。
me to find memes, download Robinhood wallet, not Robinhood app.
是的，至少还多了一道门槛，用户得主动跨过去，不会轻易被吸引进去。
Yeah, least there's step there and a hoop someone has to go through and so they're not, you know, like, enticed by this.
不过这对一些原生的DeFi协议和钱包来说，倒是挺有利的。
But this has been pretty good for some of the native DEFI protocols for wallets.
对。
Mhmm.
我看到有十四万个钱包在Robinhood链上创建了。
I saw a 140,000 wallets have been opened on Robinhood Chain.
这是海登·亚当斯。
This is Hayden Adams.
就在一天之内。
On on one day.
就那一天而已。
That was just one day.
我觉得Robinhood链上的累计钱包数量已经超过二十万了。
I think we're accumulative accumulative wallets on Robinhood Chain is over 200,000.
7月8日那天，Robinhood链上新增了141个活跃钱包。
On July 8, there was a 141 new active wallets on Robinhood Chain.
二十四小时内，Uniswap在Robinhood链上的交易额达到了五亿美元，差不多是Solana上DEX现货交易量的三分之一。
$500,000,000 of trading volume in Uniswap on in twenty four hours, which is roughly a third of Solana's DEX spot volume just on the Uniswap version of Robinhood Chain.
简直不可思议。
Pretty crazy.
我的意思是，你能不能说，这些迷因其实是启动一个生态系统的绝佳方式？
I mean, could you make the argument that, hey, this is memes are a great way to bootstrap an ecosystem.
你吸引用户，让他们用钱包做各种操作，产生活跃度，等他们来了之后，自然就会说
You get users, you get people use like on the wallet doing things, activity, and then once they they come, they'll they'll they'll say
我听过这个说法
I've heard this story
之前就听过。
before.
我觉得我们以前说过这个
I feel like I've we've said this
之前就说过。
before.
这话我早就听过了。
I've heard that before.
更多加密钱包落到更多人手里，总体来说是好事。
More more crypto wallets in more hands is net good.
我觉得梗总是像个火花一样。
I think memes are always kind of just like it's the spark.
至于能不能点燃什么，那就完全说不准了。
Whether or not it lights anything is completely unbounded.
不过确实有些DeFi协议是赢家。
Well, there were some DEFI protocols that are winners here.
你提到了Uniswap。
You mentioned Uniswap.
还有Athena和Morpho，它们也从中获益不少。
There's also Athena and and Morpho, which received some some total value here.
所以它们受益于Robinhood Chain的表现。
So they benefit from Robinhood Chain doing well.
没错。
Totally.
一些Robinhood代币曾在Pump Fun上暴涨，那可是个大场面。
Some of these Robinhood tokens were on pump fun, which is a massive Yeah.
所以PumpFun想让他们的用户也参与进来，现在你可以在PumpFun上买到Robinhood的模因币，而且现在还包含了Robinhood的股票。
So, like, Pump Pump wants to give their users in on the action, and so you can buy Robinhood Meme Coins on PumpFun now, which also now includes Robinhood stocks.
你现在可以在PumpFun上购买Robinhood的股票代币，这挺有意思的。
So you can now buy Robinhood stock tokens on PumpFun, fund, which is interesting.
这确实是个不错的办法，能把你在模因币上赚的钱转到更持久一点的资产上。
It's a great way to cycle your your meme coin winnings into something that's a bit more sustainable.
我希望他们真是这么做的，大卫。
I I hope that's what they're doing, David.
对。
Yeah.
那现实世界的资产部分呢？
But how about the real world asset part of things?
那些代币化的股票怎么样？
How about the tokenized stocks?
卖得火不火？
Are those flying off the shelves?
我们在Robinhood Chain上卖token化的股票吗？
Are we selling some tokenized stocks on Robinhood Chain?
当然卖。
Sure.
Robinhood Chain上现在有三亿六千六百万美元的资产。
There's $366,000,000 of assets on Robinhood Chain.
其中两亿六千六百万是稳定币，像你说的，很大一部分都放在Morpho里，靠Robinhood的稳定币USDG赚7%的额外收益。
266 of that is stablecoins granted, and a lot a decent chunk of that is, as you said, in Morpho getting that 7 percent, like, boosted yield from the Robinhood stablecoin, the USDG.
那是PAXOs。
That's PAXOs.
有九千万美元放在Athena里赚收益，八千六百万美元在Morpho里赚收益。
So $90,000,000 that is in in Athena getting yield, $86,000,000 of that is in Morpho getting yield.
另外还有整整一千三百万美元是Robinhood的token化股票，虽然不算多，但也不是零。
And then there is a whopping $13,000,000 of tokenized stocks, Robinhood tokenized stocks, $13,000,000, which I mean, it's not zero.
这已经是当天的了。
It's day it's day
三天了，你知道吧？
three, you know?
已经是第三天了。
It's day three.
等他们向美国开放后，这个数字肯定会上升。
Well, I'm sure that number will go up when they open it up at least to The US.
现在只限于欧洲。
It's just Europe only.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Right.
美国根本用不了，这真让人郁闷。
It's not even it's not available in The US, which sucks.
我敢肯定还有很多限制，比如我还没试过购买，其实最好的是
I'm sure there's a lot of gates that like I haven't tried to purchase I actually the best
我还没实际用过，因为Robinhood的股票本来就是无权限的。
haven't actually tried it out directly yet because Robinhood stocks are are permissionless, actually.
是的。
Yeah.
下次得试试看。
It's a to do for next time.
大卫打算去试一下。
David's gonna go try this.
好。
Yeah.
咱们来看看以太坊上的数据可用性购买情况。
Let's let's look at the data availability purchase from Ethereum.
有些有趣的统计数据。
Some interesting stats.
真是个极客。
Nerd.
所以这是L2B。
So this is l two b.
现在Robinhood Chain运行在L2上，因为它本身就是一个二层网络，而且可能是过去十二个月里最成功的二层项目，至少从初期表现来看是这样。
Now Robinhood Chain is on l And two because Robinhood Chain is a layer two, and probably the most successful layer two that's come out in the past, like, twelve months or so, right, as far as off the bat success.
人们其实是在寻找对以太坊二层路线图的某种验证，但最近这条路走得并不顺。
It's kind of like people are looking for some validation of the Ethereum l two roadmap, which has not been going well lately.
对。
Mhmm.
Robinhood Chain从以太坊一层购买数据可用性，到目前为止已经花了大约600美元用于这项服务。
So Robinhood Chain purchases its data availability from Ethereum, the layer one, and they have so far spent about $600 purchasing that data availability.
600美元的ETH。
$600 of ETH.
这笔钱彻底没了。
This is gone forever.
到目前为止，已经花了600美元买blob空间。
$600 of blob space so far.
这还只是刚开始。
And that's just to start.
当然，只有当出现竞争时费用才会飙升。
And, of course, it only spikes up when there's contention.
因为供给远远大于需求。
So because there's much more supply than demand.
这个
The
费用就是一场竞争。
fees are competition.
是的，你懂的。
Yes, you know
套路。
the drill.
我们要不要再多聊聊以太坊？
Should we talk more about Ethereum?
咱们聊聊 straw map 吗？
You want to talk about the straw map?
确实得提一下 Arbitrum，这周它的代币表现最亮眼，涨了13%。
Yes, you do have to give a shout out to arbitrum, which is going be our token mover of the week, which is up 13% this week.
对啊，他们这周涨得猛，上周才涨了3%左右。
Oh, they are up up cause they were only up like 3% last week.
是的，我们之前聊过这个。
Yeah, talked
关于这个话题。
about this.
他们最近得到了推动。
They got a boost.
因为他们能拿到 Robinhood Chain 所有执行费的10%，这些资金都会流入 Arbitrum。
They got a boost because they get 10% of all of the execution fees of Robinhood Chain goes into the arbitrage.
所以这周最值得关注的代币就是它了。
So our token mover of the week.
恭喜，ARB。
Congrats, arb.
对。
Yeah.
好了，现在聊聊 Strawmap 吧。
Okay, now talk to me about the Strawmap.
嗯，我也不太清楚。
Well, I don't know.
你看过吗？
Did you see it?
这是 Vitalik 发的 Strawmap。
So this is Vitalik posting the Strawmap.
我们之前就已经有一个版本的 Strawmap 了，基本上是以太坊未来三到五年，甚至十年以上的路线图。
So we already had a version of the Strawmap, which is basically Ethereum's roadmap for the next, call it, three to five years, maybe ten years plus.
那为什么叫这个名字呢？
Why do we call it that?
就像个草稿方案，你懂的？
Like Strawman, you know?
我觉得吧
Said I think
这其实就是个路线图的初步构想。
it's like an idea of a roadmap.
对，就是个路线图的初稿。
It's yeah, it's just like a draft of a roadmap.
对吧？
Right?
这内容随时可能改。
This could change.
别把它太当真。
Like, don't take it too seriously.
这只是一个初步设想。
It's just a straw man.
从来没做过。
Never did.
不过这次你可能得认真一点，因为这是新版的草图，里面多了一些以前没有的内容——就是几列日期。
Well, you might have reason to take it a bit more seriously this time around because this is a new version of the straw map, and this one has something I didn't see in previous versions, which is some some columns for dates.
日期。
For dates.
这是新添的。
And that's new.
确实新添了。
That is new.
你能想象吗？
Can you imagine?
日期。
Dates.
有多具体？
How specific?
这只是一个 Strawmap，别太当真。
It's just a Strawmap, so don't get too excited.
明白吗？
Okay?
这些是 Strawmap 上的日期。
These are Strawmap dates.
我确实有点兴奋了。
I got excited.
不过我们确实有这些日期，而且它们大致对应着未来的硬分叉。
But we do have we do have these dates, and we have them tied roughly to future hard forks.
我们把一些功能特性跟以太坊的硬分叉绑在一起，这些是可交付的软件更新，时间跨度大概六个月到九个月，从2026年接下来的两次硬分叉一直排到2029年。
So we have lists of features tied to hard forks, which are shippable pieces of software on Ethereum, tied to, like, I don't know, this looks like a six to nine month cadence, And it goes from 2026 and the two next hard forks all the way to 2029.
你还会看到一列叫‘北极星’的栏目。
And you also have this this column called North Stars.
这些功能都被归类了。
And so these features are grouped.
所以你了解以太坊的分层结构吧。
So you know the layers of the cake for Ethereum.
我们自己，还有整个Bankless社区，到底讲过多少遍这个了？
How many times have we educated ourselves on this and and the rest of the bankless nation on this?
共识层、数据层、执行层，这就是蛋糕的三层。
Consensus layer, data layer, execution layer, the three layers of the cake.
然后你还有这些北极星目标，我很欣赏这一点。
And then you have these North Starz, which I appreciate.
我们为什么要搞这些？
Why are we doing these things?
北极星目标包括：L1快速终局性，L2超低Gas，为Robinhood Chain和Bass提供海量blob，每秒一GB；L1吉加Gas，每秒一吉加Gas；还有私有L1。
The north stars are fast l one, so fast finality, terraGas l two, so lots of blobs for Robinhood Chain and Bass, one gigabyte per second, and then giga gas l one, that's one giga gas per second, and then private l one.
目前，这就是以太坊的四个北极星目标。
So those are the the four north stars for Ethereum at this point.
所有这些功能，不管属于哪个开发路线，都对应这四个北极星目标中的一个。
And all of the features across all of these swim lines map to one of those four north stars.
到目前为止，你跟得上吗？
Are you with me so far?
是的。
Yep.
对。
Mhmm.
对。
Mhmm.
维塔利克称这是以太坊历史上最大的变革，一个新时代的开启。
So Vitalik calls this the biggest kind of thing, new era of Ethereum.
他没有说以太坊3.0，但这是我自己的理解。
He doesn't say Ethereum 3 dot 0, but that's my interpretation.
这次和合并不一样，不是一次性的大动作。
Now, unlike the merge, it's not like a one shot.
我们是要逐步推出整个体系。
Like, we we we ship the whole thing.
所以这个过程要缓慢得多，也许这就是你不太想把整个变化称为以太坊3.0的原因。
So this happens much more gradually, which is maybe some of reason you don't wanna call this whole thing Ethereum 3 dot 0.
因为这根本不是
It's cause it's just not
没有一个明确的时刻，从来就没有过这样的时刻。
a There's moment in never a moment.
没错。
No.
我所说的以太坊3.0，是通过一系列硬分叉逐步实现的，朝着我们设定的终极目标推进。
We're shipping Ethereum 3 dot 0, as I'm calling it, in these kind of hard fork phases towards these North Star definitions.
你有没有注意到，和之前的路线图相比，这次有什么不同？
Do you have any like, I don't know if you saw this compared to the previous version of the roadmap.
根据我刚才说的，你对这些变化有什么看法？有没有觉得不一样？
But like based on everything I've said, what are your impressions of the changes here, if any?
以前的那个版本其实只是个草图，随时可能调整和更新，诸如此类。
Well, this is the old version was a straw map, which was subject to change and updating and all that kind of stuff.
我觉得第一个版本，也就是那个草图的测试版，是贾斯汀·德雷克最讨厌的一张幻灯片。
And I think really the first version, you know, the beta version of the straw map was Justin Drake's most hated slide ever.
对。
Yes.
是在曼谷，2024年。
Out of con in Bogota
是2024年吗？
was that 2024?
曼谷2024年？
Bangkok 2024?
没错。
Yep.
是24年吗？
Is that '24?
是的，就是24年。
Yeah, it's '24.
我们现在讲的是轻量级以太坊这个理念。
We're into lean Ethereum, that whole idea.
对。
Yep.
没错。
Right.
当时有个五年计划，大家都挺抱怨的。
And there was like a five year plan, and everyone was grumbling about it.
现在两年半过去了，我们已经走了一半。
And, you know, well, we're two and a half years later, we're halfway through.
但这本来就是个初步规划。
But like, it's a straw map.
所以后来更新了。
And so it has been updated.
本来就没打算一成不变。
So it was subject to change.
我们已经更新了。
We've changed it.
现在是这样了。
It's now this.
在这两年半里，有哪些变化呢？
And what has changed in those two and a half years?
人工智能，还有量子技术。
AI, and also quantum.
是的，没错。
Yeah, yeah.
我同意。
I agree.
这两件事彻底重新调整了优先级。
Those two things are like reshuffling priorities.
还有以太坊基金会的拆分。
And then you also have the unbundling of the EF.
Vitalik 其实并不关心区块时间。
Vitalik doesn't really care about block times.
现在 ETH Labs 开始重视区块时间了。
ETH Labs now cares about block times.
由于主导 Strawmap 的组织发生了调整，你也就能看出一些优先级的变化。
And so because of the reshuffling of the actual organizations leading the Strawmap, you kinda see also some of the priorities.
所以这份内容已经更新到了 2026 年。
And so it's just updated for 2026.
这基本上是我对这些变化的一个总结。
It's kinda like my summary of how things changed.
我觉得这份更新确实反映了 2026 年的这些优先事项。
I think it is updated for 2026 with some of those priorities.
我稍后再回过头来谈这个。
I wanna get back to that in a second.
但我也想指出，现在的内容详细多了，模糊地带也少了很多。
But also I'd point out, it's like so much more detailed, so much less fog of war.
你还记得Justin Drake在2024年做的那张幻灯片吗？
If you go back to do you remember Justin Drake's slide from 2024?
那时候内容特别模糊。
It was just very vague.
他说我们要先把所有人都‘ pill ’一遍。
And it was like there was a we're going to pill everyone first.
你懂的吧？
You know?
这其实也是我们后来调整方向的原因之一，对吧？
Like, that's part of the reason we Right?
现在这个版本就详细多了。
Got some This is detailed.
还标了具体的时间点。
This has dates.
而且有清晰的栏目划分。
This has columns.
这还列出了硬分叉的时间点。
This has hard forks.
这还包含了具体的功能细节。
This has specific features.
它有没有提到微策略授权出售比特币的具体日期，还是说那些只是日期？
Does it have, like, micro strategy authorization to sell Bitcoin dates, or are they dates?
我觉得那些日期并不是Strawmap。
I think that well, I don't think you the dates are Strawmap.
明白吗？
Okay?
但这种详细程度，在以太坊这个阶段我们之前从未见过。
But the level of detail is something that we haven't seen for this era of Ethereum.
不过咱们聊聊你注意到的优先级安排吧。
But let's talk about the prioritization that you noticed.
对。
Yeah.
人工智能的兴起。
The the advent of AI.
形式化验证似乎在这其中获得了很大推动，至少你能看到它的影响。
Formal verification seems to be getting kind of a big boost in this, or at least you can see the effects.
就像过去以零知识证明作为以太坊的隐藏钥匙一样。
In the same way that, you know, a secret unlock for Ethereum in the past has been snarks.
这正是推动这个路线图的关键，而且我们已经把这一点体现在之前的Strawmap版本里了。
That's what's allowing this road map, and we've already kind of priced that in, let's say, incorporated that in previous versions of the Strawmap.
这一版最受形式化验证的影响，因为现在有一种观点认为，我们可以从多客户端执行层转向更集中的单一客户端架构。
This one seems most affected by formal verification because there seems to be this idea that we can move from a multi client execution layer to a more consolidated single client pieces of the execution layer.
过去为了通过多客户端保持安全冗余，但这一版路线图似乎引入了新思路：只要单一客户端经过形式化验证，就能提供足够的安全保障。
So rather than have, in order to preserve security redundancy through multiple clients, there's this idea, I think, interjected through this version of the roadmap, that we can consolidate, have a single client, as long as it's formally verified, that gives us the security that we need.
而且因为只需要维护一个客户端，很多事情都能加快进度。
And because we can only only have one client, that speeds a lot of things up.
特别是
So in particular
这能解决很多开发和治理上的协调问题
That will solve a lot of development just Governance Like like, coordination
没错
and so
涉及的层面太多了
so many different layers.
是的
Yes.
快多了
Like, it's so much faster.
我们只需要专注一个客户端就行
We can just focus on one client.
对
Yeah.
你看，ZK EVM 的速度已经提升了不少
So what you see here is that the ZK EVM has been sped up.
好吗？
Okay?
现在它已经进入了 K Star，也就是 K Star 的分支版本，而以前呢，像是 L Star 或者更长的版本。
Now it's in it's in K Star, the K Star fork, whereas previously, it was like an L Star or longer.
所以进度已经推进了。
So that has moved forward.
现在你实际上
Now you actually
想想看，L Star 的速度简直让人无法想象。
see can't even imagine L Star.
等我看到的时候，我都得老四十岁了。
I'm gonna be forty years older
K Star 是 2028 年。
than L This is K Star is 2028.
L Star 是 2029 年。
L Star is 2029.
明白吗？
Okay?
明白了。
Okay.
到2029年你就四十岁了。
You're gonna be 40 in 2029.
所以呢。
So
全程都是。
All the way.
这次还出现了原生的滚动条。
Native roll ups also make an appearance on this.
我之前好像没在旧版本里见过这个。
I don't know if I've seen that on previous versions.
带日期的原生滚动条是新加入的。
Native roll ups with the date is new.
所以，我觉得这挺酷的。
So, anyway, I think that's that's cool.
我还注意到，量子计算方面的进展明显加快了。
Another thing that I noticed was there seems to be more acceleration towards quantum.
一些量子计算的时间节点也提前了。
So some of the quantum dates have moved up as well.
量子计算的推进时间，从原来的2029到2030年，现在都提前到2028年了。
More from the 2029 and and 2030 to the 2028 time period for quantum acceleration.
隐私方面，目标也更激进了。
Privacy, also more ambitious.
说到量子计算，我觉得以太坊作为市值第二的区块链挺有利的——要是真有了量子计算机，你是会选比特币，还是选以太坊？
I will say about quantum, it is nice Ethereum being the second market cap blockchain because if you have a quantum computer, like, are you going go for Bitcoin?
你会挑比特币，还是以太坊？
Or are going to go for Ethereum?
答案很明确：你会选比特币，因为以太坊的加密机制更难破解，而且也更普及。
And the answer is unequivocally, you're going to go for Bitcoin, because Ethereum is still going to be harder to break and more readily available.
所以，比特币实际上是替以太坊挡了这一枪。
And so like, Bitcoin will take the bullet for Ethereum.
是的，确实如此。
Yeah, I mean, that's right.
而且我觉得，以太坊在区块链密码学的选择上，其实正在为比特币探路。
And also, I think Ethereum is kind of leading the way for Bitcoin in terms of Yeah, know, figuring out which cryptography works for blockchains.
隐私保护。
Privacy.
长远来看，以太坊的目标是全面实现类似Zcash那样的隐私功能。
Ethereum looks like it's going by the by the end of this in the longer term going full Zcash.
所以我们现在看到的，至少在路线图里，是在共识层上建立一个隐私池。
So what we're looking at is, at least in the Strawmap, okay, is a a privacy pool at the consensus layer.
这基本上就是Zcash的隐私机制。
That's like basically Zcash functionality
在Zcash上。
on the Zcash.
这是在一层上实现的屏蔽池，就像Zcash那样。
That is a shielded pool in the layer one, and a Zcash.
比特币没这么做，但它其实是在说：隐私？我们来接手。
Something that Bitcoin is not doing, but it's basically saying, hey, privacy, we'll take that.
我们会把隐私功能加到现有的区块链上，而不是重新启动一条全新的链。
That'll be a feature that we add onto our blockchain rather than launch an entirely new blockchain.
这些是我注意到的主要几点。
So those are the big things I noticed.
不过也有一些事情被推迟了。
Now, there are some things that were deprioritized.
数据可用性和blob功能似乎又被往后推了，因为我觉得现在已经有足够的能力了，它们也没带来多大提升。
Data availability, blob features seem to be pushed back a bit more, because like, I guess we have enough, they're not gonna be like, I mean, it's not generating a lot.
为什么不让Robinhood多付点钱呢？这也没问题。
Why just charge Robinhood more money, that's fine.
那产品还行。
It was an okay product.
BlobSpace的销量记录已经彻底打破了，你知道的。
It's not a, it's blown out, you know, the records in terms of sales for BlobSpace.
另外，插槽时间也稍微往后推了。
Also, let's see, slot times were moved back a little bit.
我当时在看ETH Labs团队的动向。
But I was looking at the ETH Labs team.
这是ETH Labs的Barnaby，想听听他对这个路线图的看法。
Like, this is Barnaby from the ETH Labs team to see what they'd say about this this roadmap.
他们实际上非常看好。
And they were actually bullish.
Barnaby说他喜欢去耦合的共识机制。
This is Barnaby saying he likes decoupled consensus.
他特别看好，因为他们在把一些模块拆分开来。
Is very bullish, he said, because they're decoupling some things.
你能感觉到，ETH Labs或许能独立于这个路线图推进插槽时间的调整。
You get the you get the sense that ETH Labs might be able to move on slot times independent of this road map.
相比之下，也许以太坊基金会没把这事当重点，但这恰恰给ETH实验室留出了空间，让他们可以优先推进。
Whereas, like, maybe the Ethereum foundation isn't prioritizing it, there's opportunity because they're decoupling for ETH Labs to come in and prioritize it.
所以这也是一个方面。
So there's that too.
还有另一件事我注意到了，但说实话，我不太确定这到底指的是什么。
And then one other thing I noticed, which is like, I don't know what this is exactly.
停滞的发行量？
Stale issuance?
我以前听过这个说法，不过以太坊的发行量说不定会以某种形式重新成为议题。
Like I've heard it talk about that, but like issuance, ETH issuance could be on the table in some form or another.
这里还加了个表情符号，表示不确定性，所以这未来也可能成为讨论的话题。
It has an emoji, is like uncertainty So that could be a discussion in the future too.
真不敢相信，以太坊社区又要重新展开一轮关于发行量的争论了。
I can't believe we're gonna do another round of ETH issuance debates in the Ethereum community.
我都已经能预见到这场浪潮要来了。
And like, I can just see that tidal wave coming.
我会参与进来，因为我觉得以太坊的货币政策是整个以太坊最有趣的话题。
And I'm gonna take part in it because I find ETH monetary policy probably the most interesting subject about Ethereum.
但我心里清楚，这事儿一搞，我头发得愁白一大片。
But I'm just like, yes, I'm gonna get so many gray hairs.
我同意Donkrad之前在后台提过的那个观点。
I do share this take that Donkrad had on the back.
Donkrad，前以太坊研究员，这个你肯定知道。
So Donkrad, former ETH researcher, of course.
现在他在Tempo工作。
Now he's at Tempo.
他说，以太坊的Strawmap里头有很多让人眼前一亮的功能，全是大写的那种。
He said the Ethereum Strawmap has a lot of really cool features in all caps.
他提到，完全验证的SCF，还有几秒内完成最终性的扩展方案，让他特别兴奋。
Fully proven SCF and scaling the giggas with finality in seconds gets me excited, he said.
但三到四年的时间，未免也太长了。
But three to four years is very slow.
我觉得我们应该更有雄心，争取一年内完成。
I think we should be ambitious and get it done in one year.
我觉得一年内完成这事儿太不现实了。
I think that's unreasonable to get it done in one year.
如果真想一年内搞定，那基本上就得把所有以太坊开发者都换掉，然后让Tempo团队用一种高度集中、自上而下的方式来干。
I think if we wanted to get it done in one year, you would basically have to punt every single Ethereum developer and then get tempo to come in and do it in a very like top down, like centralized way.
我不清楚我们怎么能在一年内做到这一点。
I don't know how we would do that in one year.
所以你是能接受三到四年，但不觉得……
So you're fine with three to four years, but not
那时候再说吧。
at that time.
我和Donkrad的看法一致，就是越早完成越好。
I agree with Donkrad is that it should be done as soon as possible.
但我真想不出该怎么实现。
But like, I just don't see how we do that.
这跟以太坊现在的文化根本不搭。
It's just like not in the culture that we have in Ethereum.
DEFI ignis 对这个问题有过看法。
The DEFI ignis had a take on this.
他说整体来看是看涨的，但缺了关键的一环：ETH 的代币经济。
He said it was bullish overall, but he said the missing piece is ETH tokenomics.
虽然有人说手续费降低会吸引更多用户交易，但这前提太不确定了。
Although it's a nonissue of reduced fees attract more transactions per user, that's a big if.
他的观点是，以太坊根本没人解决手续费收入的问题。
So his thing was like, there's nothing that addresses fee generation on Ethereum.
就是这种洞察力。
It's that kind of insight.
如果熊市拖得更久，Tempo 和 Canton 就会慢慢蚕食 ETH 的市场份额。
And if the bear market continues for longer, then Tempo, Canton, they start to eat away at ETH's market share.
至于后面这点，我不太确定。
I don't know about that latter point.
因为归根结底，以太坊是独树一帜的，至于他提到的激发费用需求这一点，根本没人专门负责以太坊的业务拓展和增长。
Because for all this, like Ethereum is in a league of its own and Ethereum and to his first point about like inducing fee demand, that's no one's job to do BD and growth on Ethereum.
这一直是问题所在。
That's kinda been the issue the entire
代币经济这个角度，其实就是说
token economics take, which is just like
这涉及的是发行量。
That's issuance.
这一点其实有人提过。
So it is touched on.
这确实是发行量的问题。
That is issuance.
但那只是在减少
But that's just reducing
减少发行量，因为我觉得Defi Igneus和一些人真正期待的是，销毁机制能重新活跃起来，让费用收入形成持续的现金流或者真实的需求。
issuance because, like, I think what what DEFI igneous and some people are looking for is for the burn to come back for there to be some sustained cash flows in terms of fee generation or any demand.
我们没法强行让以太坊上产生需求。
And we can't force demand to happen on Ethereum.
你可以的。
You could
我们只能引导需求。
we can just induce demand.
这不只是需求的问题。
It's not just demand.
还有供给方面。
It's also supply.
我的意思是，你可以
I mean, you can
没错，就是减少发行量。
right which is reducing issuance.
不对。
No.
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