加密货币代币的新经济学 | 奥斯汀·巴拉克

比如说，最悲观的看法是零分，基准情况是五分，完全看涨是十分。

Let's call, like, ultimate bear cases zero out of 10, base cases five, you know, full bull cases 10.

你大概可以给它打个六分，我会这么打。

You can probably call it like a I would call it a six.

在乐观程度上打六分？

A six on the optimism spectrum?

对。

Yes.

不错。

Cool.

不错。

Cool.

你觉得到目前为止，威尼斯的发展怎么样？

What do you think about just Venice growth to this point?

有没有超出你的预期？

Has it like exceeded your expectations?

从第一天开始的轨迹，它有没有达到你的预期？

The trajectory from from day one has it it has been about about meeting your expectations.

关于威尼斯到目前为止的增长，以及你未来对它的设想，你能说些什么？

What can you say about like Venice's growth up to this point and what you have imagined for in it for it in the future?

绝对超出了我的预期。

Definitely exceeded my expectations.

我最初开始关注威尼斯是在2025年初他们推出代币的时候。

I I first started tracking Venice when they launched our token beginning of twenty twenty five.

那是因为我当时在虚拟资产和AI XBT以及相关生态系统方面做了很多工作。

And, you know, that's because I was doing a lot of work in the virtuals and AI XBT and and kind of related ecosystem.

所以我很幸运地获得了VVV代币的空投，从那时起我就开始关注它，它确实很有趣，我也一直留意着，但说实话，在2025年那些关税和疯狂的事情发生期间，我有点忽略了它，而且他们后来也改变了经济模型。

So I was fortunate to get to get a nice airdrop of of VVV tokens and, you know, I had started following in since then and you know, it was something that was interesting and I kept an eye on, but you know, honestly lost a little bit of track of it through like all the tariffs and crazy stuff that was happening in 2025 and you know, they changed their economic model.

最初VVV既是代币又是推理计算代币，后来我记得是在8月份，他们创建了DEEM代币。

Originally VVV was both the token and the inference compute token and then later on, I think it was in August, they created the DEEM token.

但实际上是在今年年初，威尼斯的交易价格大约在2美元，埃里克写了一篇很长的推文，详细说明了代币经济学的变化、他们的代币化计算代币是如何运作的，以及他们最近看到的一些增长情况，而且你知道，有时候有一段没有其他事情可做的空闲时间也挺好的。

But it was actually very beginning of this year, Venice was trading at like $2 and Eric wrote this really long tweet thread about the change in token economics, how their tokenized compute token worked, what some of the growth that they've seen lately was and I, you know, sometimes it's nice to have this like blocked out periods of time where there's nothing else to do.

当时我坐出租车，大概四十分钟的车程，正穿过城市呢。

But I was in a forty minute taxi ride, I was you know, traveling across town.

所以我一边刷推特，一边把那条长文从头读到尾，心想哇，看来我之前对 Diem 的动态跟踪得不够紧，于是就开始深入研究，也就是从那时起我开始为基金建仓。

So I'm scrolling Twitter and I'm like reading through this whole thing and I'm like, wow, I guess I hadn't like kept fully up to date with what they were doing with Diem and started digging in and that's when I started building a position for the fund.

但我真没料到代币价格能翻十倍。我当时预估的收入大概在1000万到2000万美元之间，觉得八个月内能有五到十倍的涨幅就不错了。

But I did not anticipate that the token would 10 x the revenue like what I estimated at the time was maybe like in the 10 to 20,000,000 range would do like a five to 10 x in a period of eight months.

用户数能达到400万。

That they'd be at 4,000,000 users.

我觉得那时候他们大概有一百万用户。

I think they were maybe at 1,000,000 users at the time.

积分的增长速度也特别快。

The credits would also grow so quickly.

所以是的，我真的挺惊喜的。

So yeah, I've been really pleasantly surprised.

我平时跟团队沟通挺多的，因为我算是个活跃社区成员嘛，特别喜欢分享想法、提建议，还有各种主动提供的反馈。

Know, I I chat with the the team a lot just because I'm like an active community member and I love sharing ideas, suggestions, like unsolicited feedback.

我很感激他们没有让我别管闲事，而且他们愿意听我的想法。

I I appreciate that they they don't tell me to to lay off and and you know, they listen to the ideas that I have.

但确实，这真的很了不起。我觉得很酷的一点是，在加密货币领域，很少有产品能真正打入主流消费者市场，找到产品市场契合点，而Venice就是其中之一。

But yeah, it's the that's it's really incredible and I think one of the things that's cool is we've seen so few products in crypto that have legitimate mainstream consumer crossover that have found product market fit and Venice is is one of those.

当你看到OpenRouter以70亿美元的价格被收购时，你作为Venice的持有者，有什么反应？

When you saw OpenRouter sell for $7,000,000,000, what was your reaction to that from the Venice receptors?

这是否证实了Venice所在的这个领域？

Was that confirmation of the sector that Venice is in?

还是说，这为你看待VVV代币带来了什么新的视角？

Or did that add anything new to your perspective around VVV, the token?

你的反应是什么？

What was your reaction?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得这正好说明我们正在走向一个多模型路由的世界，人们发现用不同的模型处理不同的用例有巨大的价值，而OpenRouter就是干这个的。

So I think it just shows that we're moving to like a multi model routing world where people are finding tons of utility of using different models for different use cases and that's what OpenRouter is.

不过更多是在开发者工具这个层面，而不是消费者层面。

But like more on the developer tooling level versus like the consumer level.

本质上，Venice 也是这样做的。

And fundamentally that's what Venice is as well.

你去那里是因为想要隐私保护，而且如果你直接用 ChatGPT，你就只能用它提供的最新模型；用 Anthropic 也是同理，只能选它家的模型。

You go there because you want privacy but also because if you go to ChatGPT, you're using whichever model of you know OpenAI's latest models that you pick to use or, know, same thing with with Anthropic if you're you're going there, you know, so on and so forth.

但市面上很少有那种能让你根据具体需求自由选择最佳模型的强消费级产品。

But there's very few strong consumer products that allow you to pick whatever model is best for the particular use case they're using at that time.

这也正好印证了 Venice 正在做的事情。

And that's just validating what Venice is doing.

你知道的，OpenRouter 融资时的估值是 13 亿。

So, you know, OpenRouter raised at a 1,300,000,000 valuation.

那是大概两个月前的事，其实也没过多久。

It's like two months ago, like not really long ago.

现在它的估值已经是之前的七倍多了，达到了 100 亿。

And now it's like seven x and or more than seven x at 10,000,000,000.

所以我觉得这反映了威尼斯应该有的合理倍数，也许之前正确的数字是30倍或50倍，但如果他们继续看到这样的增长，也许70倍才是合适的倍数。

So I I think that just reflects on what a reasonable multiple should be for for Venice and like maybe the right number was 30 x before or 50 x before, but if they continue to see this growth, maybe 70 x is the right multiple.

所以这让我对我做的估值分析更有信心了。

So that just gives me more conviction in in the valuation analysis that I've done.

在过去六个月到一年左右的时间里，有一些代币的价格和价值在熊市中独立增长，比如比特币持平或下跌，以太坊持平或下跌，但Hype在过去十二个月左右暴涨了。

There have been a few tokens in the last, like, six months to a year or so that have grown in price, grown in value, idiosyncratically, like, out of the bear market where, you know, Bitcoin is down to flat, Ether is down to flat, but hype, which is like blew up in the last, like, twelve months or so.

威尼斯，你知道，尽管宏观环境看跌，它确实增长了。

Venice, you know, really grew despite the bearishness in the macros.

而且有几个这样的代币，尽管加密货币整体看跌，它们还是增长了。

And there's been a few of these tokens that have grown despite just the the broad bearishness in crypto.

所以有一种观点是，哦，好吧，一旦比特币涨了，那，哦，天哪。

So there there there's one take where it's like, oh, well, like, once Bitcoin goes, then, like, oh my god.

这些代币会涨得更高。

These are gonna go even even further.

但看跌的观点是，哦，不。

But the bearish take is like, oh, no.

那你知道，Venice到底面临哪些风险？

These, like, you know, Venice what is Venice exposed to?

简单来说，VVV的收益直接取决于Venice的成功与否。

Like, Venice is is exposed to or VVV is exposed to the success of Venice, obviously.

而且说实话，就算比特币涨到历史新高，比如冲到25万美元，VVV也完全不受影响。

And, actually, if, you know, if Bitcoin goes to all time highs and beyond, say, Bitcoin goes to, like, a $250,000, actually, VVV has no exposure to that whatsoever.

你觉得加密货币大盘走势和像Hype或VVV这种靠自身营收增长的项目之间，存在关联吗？

Do you think there's any sort of coupling between the macros of the crypto assets and things like hype or VVV, which have grown according to their own revenues?

还是说你觉得这些东西其实已经跟大盘明显脱钩了？也就是说，整个加密行业的宏观增长可能并不会真正反映在 VVV 或 Hype 这类代币上？

Or do you think these things are, like, actually meaningfully decoupled and, you know, macro growth in crypto as an industry actually won't really show up in things like VVV or hype?

你对这个怎么看？

Do have an opinion about that?

确实是这样。

Yeah.

这是个非常好的问题。

So it's a great question.

所以我觉得它们部分是挂钩的，部分是脱钩的，但脱钩的部分是积极的。

So I think they're partially coupled partially decoupled, but the decoupling part is in a positive way.

我先说脱钩的部分，就是比特币和主流币种上涨之前我们看到的那些表现。

So I'll start with the decoupling which is the performance that we've seen before the move in in Bitcoin and majors.

这些业务增长非常快。

These are businesses that are growing really quickly.

它们正在把基本价值返还给代币持有者。

They're seeing like fundamental value being returned to token holders.

这给了它们一个坚实的估值底线，仅仅基于正在进行的业务。

That gives them a strong floor valuation based on just the business that's being done.

而且，根据你愿意为它们的增长潜力承担多少价值，你可以估算出它们应该值多少钱。

And depending on how much you wanna underwrite the value for the growth that they have, you know, you you can price out what they should be worth.

其中很多增长比人们预期的要快，而且估值比合理的要便宜，这就是为什么我们在今年早些时候看到了重新定价。

A lot of them have been growing faster than people expected and were valued cheaper than was reasonable and that's why we saw this rerating earlier in the year.

我认为随着业务基本面的持续，这种情况会继续，而且我认为业务基本面会持续下去。

I think that continues as the business fundamentals continue and I think the business fundamentals continue.

所以这种不相关的部分应该还会表现不错。

So that like non correlated aspect should continue to do well.

接下来我们拿三个具体的资产当例子，看看它们跟大盘的关联度和相关性怎么样。

Now let's take like three particular assets as examples on what their coupling and correlation is to the broader market.

我们就用 Venice、Hyperliquid 和 Pump 这三个吧。

Let's use Venice Hyperliquid and Pump.

先说 Venice，我觉得咱们先从它开始聊。

So Venice, I think all of the let's let's start.

所以我觉得它们都受益於一个事实：它们是代币，而不是股票。

So all of them, I think benefit from the fact that they're fundamentally tokens, not equities.

在过去十八个月里，代币的表现一直不太理想。

And tokens have had negative drift for the last eighteen months.

我说的意思是，资金可能没有流入加密货币，或者确切地说，资金正在从代币和加密货币流出，转向股票、人工智能以及其他资产类别。

What I mean by that is there's no capital flows coming into crypto probably or definitively capital leaving tokens, leaving crypto, moving to equities, moving to AI, moving to other asset classes.

再看看股票，因为有401(k)养老金计划等因素，它们在结构上一直有持续的资金流入。

And you you look at equities, equities just because of four zero one k's and pensions and whatnot, they structurally have positive capital flows.

但加密货币这种资金流出的趋势是周期性的。

But the negative drift in crypto is cyclical.

我觉得它不会一直持续下去。

I don't think it's gonna persist.

我认为过段时间就会反转。

I think that flips over time.

我觉得可能已经反转了，这也是为什么我们能看到整个市场出现大规模上涨的原因。

I think it's probably just flipped which is why we're seeing this massive movement across the board.

所以，只要VVV、Pump、Hype这些其他资产还是代币，它们就能从资金流向代币这一资产类别中受益。

So to the extent that VVV, Pump, Hype, these other assets are tokens, they're gonna benefit from more capital going to tokens as an asset class.

我认为这是一个无论怎样都会存在的顺风因素，而且是非常有力的顺风。因为当人们说想要配置代币时，这些项目往往会排在前列，尤其是那些试图评估基本面价值的投资者，无论是传统对冲基金、量化对冲基金，还是家族办公室或高净值类型的投资者。

So I think that's a tailwind regardless, and that's a very meaningful tailwind because when people say like, I wanna allocate to tokens, those are some of the ones that are gonna be top of the list especially for the people that are trying to underwrite fundamental value whether you think about it as like traditional hedge funds or liquid hedge funds or like family office high net worth type investors.

零售投资者也是从这个角度来考虑的。

And also retail that that is just looking at it from that lens as well.

至于耦合度更高的部分，我觉得Venice具备这一点。

The part where it's coupled further, I think Venice has that piece.

我觉得Hyperliquid和Pump其实还有更深的关联。

I think Hyperliquid and Pump actually have some further coupling.

Pump的基本面受益于链上活动增多和迷因币交易活跃。

So Pump benefits their fundamentals from when there's more on chain activity and more meme coin trading.

我们看到这种趋势在加速，但我觉得从今往后还会大幅增长。

We've seen an acceleration over time, but I think that's just gonna, like, massively grow from here.

你看过去九十天的收入，跟最近相比，平均增长了大概80%。

We could see revenues, you know, over the last ninety days, like the ninety day average versus, you know, what we've seen recently, it's grown like 80%.

我觉得从这里开始，收入甚至可能翻倍或翻三倍。

I think we could see like a doubling or tripling even from here.

所以链上活动和迷因币交易的回归，对Pump非常有利。

So just return of on chain activity and meme coin trading, very positive for Pump.

对于Hyperliquid来说，大部分的重估来自他们高流动性市场的交易量，还有像RWA市场，比如大宗商品、股票、指数，这些目前还没带来太多收入，因为它们都还在增长阶段。

For Hyperliquid, most of the rerating came from volume in their hip three markets and they're like RWA markets, whether it's, you know, commodities, stocks, indices and that hasn't generated a lot of revenue so far because they're all in growth mode.

收入，也就是营收，其实没有增长那么多，因为虽然RWA市场的交易量增长很快，但并没有产生大量收入，而真正的现金牛一直是加密货币代币业务。

The revenue, the top line hasn't actually grown that much because while volume is growing so much from the RWA markets, not generating a ton of revenue, the cash cow has always been the crypto token business.

如果我们看到资金重新流入加密货币，活动也大幅增加，那么他们就会在抽成率最高、实际赚取费用最多的业务部分受益。

And if we see a return to flows moving into crypto and lots more activity, then that's something where they're going to benefit in the part of the business where they have the highest take rate and they're actually earning the most fees.

所以，你看，一周前他们每天产生的费用大约还不到100万美元。

So, you know, if you look at they were generating, you know, like directionally just under $1,000,000 of fees a day a week ago.

而就在几天前，他们一天就产生了大约500万美元的费用。

Now they generated about $5,000,000 of fees in just one day a couple days ago.

所以我觉得，对于像Pump或Hyperliquid这样的项目，这种周期性的反身性在基本面方面也非常非常强。

So think the cycle reflexivity is very very strong for something like a pump or a hype in the fundamentals as well.

那你是不是觉得，我们聊到的这几个代币，其实能两头都占？

So you think you think that a handful of these tokens that we've talked about actually get the best of both worlds?

它们既能享受自身增长带来的收益，这当然不用说，同时也能受益于那种水涨船高的效应，也就是整个加密市场的上涨和这些高性能平台的崛起，尤其是因为，它们本身就是加密市场。

They get exposure to their own growth, which obviously they do, but they also get exposure to just like the the tide that lifts all boats, which is the crypto markets pump and the perf platforms, especially just because, like, that is they are the crypto markets.

那本来就是它们的产品。

That's literally their product.

对。

Yeah.

Venice 的好处在于，它虽然不像加密货币那样具备‘水涨船高’的全部效应，因为它缺乏链上交易那种自我强化的循环机制。

And and the nice thing about Venice is, like, well, it doesn't have the full extent of the tide that lifts all boats with crypto because it doesn't have that reflexivity with on chain trading or whatnot.

但它至少拥有同样强大的‘水涨船高’效应，那就是人工智能的普及。这也是我对此非常兴奋的原因，因为每天使用 AI 的人都在增加，而且这一趋势不会改变。

It has at least as big of a tide that lifts all boats which is just AI adoption which is why I'm so excited about it because you know, more people are using AI every day and that that's not changing.

我还想跟你聊更多代币，但我不想提前给你任何暗示或引导。

There's a bunch more tokens that I wanna talk to you about, but I don't I don't wanna prime you in any particular way.

所以，我们之前聊过的 VVV 那个已经说完了。

So what token we've talked about VVV, so that one's done.

对，那个就打个勾。

Like, check mark checkbox on that one.

哪个代币最让你兴奋？

What token excites you the most?

哪个代币最能激发你的研究兴趣？

Like, what what gives you the most, like, intellectual fodder to work with?

哪个最让你有动力去深入分析？

What gets what gets you going?

我从几个不同的角度来聊聊。

A couple from different lens.

从金融和估值分析的角度来看，我觉得 Pump 现在便宜得离谱。

From, like, a finance and valuation analysis perspective pump, I think it's still incredibly cheap.

它的回购倍数才 5 倍，而 Hyperliquid 和 Lighter 的回购倍数都在 30 到 40 倍之间。

It's trading at 5x buybacks where if you look at Hyperliquid and lighter in the 30 to 40x buybacks range.

虽然那些项目的倍数确实高很多，但大家给永续合约业务给的估值倍数本来就比 Pump 高。不过说实话，我觉得把它叫作一个‘持久的赌场生意’也不为过。

So those are much higher but I think people ascribe a higher multiple to a perps business than Pump which, you know, I I think you can call it I think it's not unreasonable to call it a durable casino business.

你知道，人们去 Pump 交易模因币是为了寻找非对称收益，他们的交易时间周期非常短，而且我觉得这在很多方面跟赌博很像。

You know, people go to Pump and trade meme coins looking for asymmetric returns, have very short trading time horizons, and and I think it's similar to gambling in in many respects.

但赌博本身没什么不对。

But there's nothing wrong with gambling.

这可是个巨大的产业，比如像永利、拉斯维加斯金沙、米高梅、DraftKings 和 FanDuel 这些公司的投资者就很多。再比如你看预测市场，或者 Robinhood 上那些当天到期的期权。

It's a very big business like people are investors in Wynn and Las Vegas Sands and MGM and DraftKings and FanDuel and I don't know, like you look at prediction markets or you know, zero day to expiry options on Robinhood.

这种投机行为跟赌博放在一起来比较，我觉得是完全合理的。

It's a form of speculation on the line with gambling that that I think is is is not an unreasonable comparison.

在我看来，以五倍市盈率交易简直是疯了。

And trading at a five x multiple to earnings is crazy in my opinion.

我觉得十倍市盈率要合理得多。

I think 10 x multiple to earnings is much more reasonable.

那意味着在当前水平上翻倍，假设没有进一步增长。

That would be a two x from current levels assuming no further growth.

我觉得它还会继续增长。

I I think it grows further from here.

所以尽管Pump在过去一个半月到两个月里已经涨了三倍左右，但基于这些估值重估和价值兑现的逻辑，我认为它还有很大的上涨空间。

So even though Pump has done, you know, a three x in the last month and a half, two months, something like that, I I think it has, you know, a lot more room to grow based on, you know, these multiple rerating and value plays out.

Hype我觉得特别有意思，因为除了稳定币，它可能是比特币、Zcash等之外最好的货币形式。

Hype, think, is incredibly interesting just because it's maybe other than stable coins, the best and, you know, Bitcoin and and Zcash and, like, money from a perspective.

我认为它是加密货币理念落地的最佳例证之一，即即时结算、全天候交易、将所有资产上链，以及将金融体系转移到区块链上。

I I think it's one of the best examples of the crypto thesis playing out, which is instant settlement, twenty four seven trading, bringing all assets on chain, and, like, shifting the financial system onto blockchains.

所以看到市场增长以及新的用例，比如在SpaceX或Cerebras或Unitree等许多新IPO之前在Hyperliquid上进行价格发现，真的很令人着迷。

So it's really fascinating to see, like, markets grow and also new use cases like price discovery before SpaceX or something like Cerebras or or Unitree or a lot of the new IPOs happened on Hyperliquid.

我觉得，随着投行家们去设定IPO的定价，他们会越来越多地去看Hyperliquid上的行情，心想：好吧。

Like, I think increasingly bankers as they set what the price for an IPO should be are gonna look at their Hyperliquid screen and it's like, alright.

嗯，那就按这个价格来定吧。

Well, there that's where it's priced.

我想这就是市场愿意出的价。

I guess that's what the market is willing to pay.

EtherFi也是类似的例子。

EtherFi is another one.

EtherFi的股价可能比大多数人都跌得久，而且原因挺有意思的，因为这是我基金里的第一个风投项目。

EtherFi have been falling probably closer than most for a very very long time and and the fun reason for that is it was actually my first venture investment in the fund.

所以我在2024年1月就开始跟他们聊了，那时候基金甚至还没正式上线。

So I started chatting with them in January 2024 before the fund was actually even live.

基金是2月1号上线的，然后当时就投了他们A轮。

And the fund went live February 1 and made an investment in their series a then.

那时候他们主要做的就是流动性质押业务。

And at that time they were just a liquid restaking business.

但是，你知道，在我和Mike还有Rock以及那边的团队聊过之后，他们给我的印象就是，他们在执行能力上绝对是顶尖的，同时也能根据市场趋势来开发新产品，并且明白某些产品可能对获取客户很有用，但随着时间的推移可能会变得商品化。

But, you know, I was after speaking with Mike and and Rock and the team there, they just struck me as a team that was like really top decile, top percentile in their ability to execute, but also build new products based on where the puck is going and understanding that like certain products can be useful for customer acquisition, but they could become commoditized over time.

比如，流动性质押就是这类产品之一。

And, like, Liquid Staking is one of those products.

而且他们从流动性质押转向收益产品，再到信用卡产品，现在又推出了一个完整的链上新经纪平台，你可以在上面交易任何资产，还可以用这些资产借款，他们的信用卡产品也非常出色，他们还有自己的AAV4实例，可以促进借贷并从中获利。

And their ability to move from Liquid Restaking to Yield products to a credit card product to now a full fledged Neo Brokerage where you can trade any asset on chain, you can borrow against those assets, you have like an incredible credit card offering, they have their own instance AAV4 where you know, they can facilitate borrow lend and monetize that.

他们利用稳定币来接触全球市场的方式，让我觉得有点像一个小型的链上新型银行。

And the way they're using stable coins to access a global market kinda reminds me of like a mini on chain new bank.

而新型银行，你知道，这对EtherFi来说是一个非常高的评价。

And new bank, you know, it's like a very flattering comparison for for EtherFi.

如果他们能取得新型银行哪怕一小部分的成功，那就太棒了，因为新型银行市值大约800亿美元，拥有1.39亿用户。

And if they can achieve a fraction of new bank success, that that would be awesome because new bank is worth, you know, like $80,000,000,000 and has a 139,000,000 users.

但我觉得，他们的核心理念在某种程度上是相似的，就是向全球用户提供有吸引力的产品，但方式却与当时的标准截然不同，比如新型银行提供的产品更注重用户友好和互联网原生，而EtherFi也在做类似的事情，只不过是在链上通过全球稳定币驱动的环境来实现。

But I I think the the thesis is is somewhat the same in terms of, you know, offering compelling products to users in, you know, on a global basis, but doing it in a way that was fundamentally different than what was standard at the time with, you know, NewBank offering products that were much more kind of consumer friendly and more internet native and EtherFi doing the same thing and then global stable coin driven on chain context.

EtherFi也在回购他们自己的代币。

EtherFi is is also doing buybacks of their own token.

他们自己的代币，不像我们之前聊过的其他代币，比如Venice、Pump、Hype，EtherFi自己的代币感觉还处在加密基础设施阶段的宿醉状态，而那个阶段我们已经彻底离开了。

Their own token, unlike all the other tokens that we've talked about, Venice, Pump, Hype, their own token, EtherFi has really felt like it's been in a hangover from, like, the infra phase of crypto, which we have firmly left.

但尽管如此，EtherFi还是在赚钱，还在回购代币。

But nonetheless, like, EtherFi is making revenue doing buybacks.

你怎么看EtherFi在成长型和价值型之间的定位？

How do you think about EtherFi on the growth versus value spectrum?

你投资EtherFi是因为它还有很多成长空间，因为Neo Brokerage是个很棒的产品，EtherFi确实是这方面的先行者吗？

Are you in EtherFi because there's a lot of growth left to do because the Neo Brokerage is a phenomenal product that EtherFi is really a first mover on?

还是说，其实是因为他们在赚钱，还在回购代币，基于这一点，市场上确实存在一些错位？

Or is it just because, like, actually, they're making revenue and they're buying back the token, and based off of that, there's actually some some dislocation in the market.

你怎么看这件事？

How do you think about this this thing?

所以，两者都有。

So it it's both.

两者都有。

It's both.

让我解释一下为什么。

Let let me explain why.

从估值来看，他们大部分时间都被当作流动性质押或流动性再质押业务来估值，所以在2024年初的时候，人们对此非常兴奋。

On the valuation, they've been fundamentally valued like a liquid staking or liquid restaking business for most of their history, which meant people were really excited about it in the beginning of twenty twenty four.

当时峰值时FDV达到80亿美元，而那时人们认为EigenLayer会值150亿或200亿美元。

It was like an 8,000,000,000 FDV at the peak at the time that people thought EigenLayer was gonna be worth 15 or $20,000,000,000.

你知道，随着流动性质押和流动性再质押，或者说再质押整体上热度下降，估值也随时间下滑了。

And you know, valuations declined over time as there's been less excitement in liquid staking and liquid restaking or restaking generally.

你甚至能看到最近以太坊通胀削减提案时的情况，EtherFi当天跌了超过10%，Lido也是。

And you even see this play out as recently as the Etherium inflation reduction proposal where EtherFi was down 10 plus percent on that day as was Lido.

EtherFi现在和那时相比，已经是完全不同的业务了。

EtherFi is a fundamentally different business today than it was then.

而且它肯定不是和Lido一样的业务。

And it's definitely not the same business as Lido.

所以这正好说明市场还没有完成对EtherFi当前业务认知的转变。

So it just shows how the market is like still not that made that transition in perception of what EtherFi's business is today.

我这么说，意思是现在EtherFi超过65%的业务都来自他们的Neo Bank产品。

When I say that, what I mean is today 65 plus percent of EtherFi's business comes from their Neo Bank product.

所以这部分收入主要来自信用卡消费，还有用户用余额做抵押来借钱刷信用卡产生的借贷收益。

So it's from credit card usage and it's from borrow revenue of people borrowing against their balances to to use the credit card.

只有35%是来自收益和质押。

And only 35% is from yield and staking.

而且随着Neo Bank业务占比越来越大，这部分在总业务里的比例一直在缩小。

And that's something that's been shrinking as a percentage of business with the Neo Bank part growing over time.

我觉得这部分业务还会进一步加速，因为他们提供了访问代币化股票和各种资产的渠道。

I think that portion of the business even accelerates further as they've offered access to tokenized stocks, wide variety of assets.

所以现在不再是只有少数几种资产，而是有上百种资产，产品也比以前更有吸引力，我认为他们最近发布的一些更新已经让产品相当不错了。

So now instead of a handful of assets, hundreds of assets, and a much more compelling product than they even had before which I think was already compelling with some of the the updates that they recently released.

所以我觉得它的估值应该和今天不一样。

So I think it's something that should be valued differently than it's being valued today.

在这个背景下，它其实挺便宜的。

And on that context is actually quite cheap.

估值大概在10到15倍市盈率左右，具体得看参考哪个价格，因为最近股价波动挺大的。

It's, you know, in the in the range of, you know, 10 to 15 times earning depending on like what price you look at because it's moved quite a bit recently.

另一方面，我觉得它的增长潜力真的非常巨大。

On the other side, I think the growth opportunity is really really massive.

首先看看信用卡产品，一年前他们每天的信用卡交易量只有30万美元。

So first of all, if you look at the credit card product, a year ago they were doing $300,000 of credit card volume a day.

现在每天能达到300万到400万美元。

Now they're doing 3 to 4,000,000 a day.

所以这是同比增长了十倍。

So that's 10 x year over year.

我觉得这会开始呈现指数级增长，而且增速会比现在快得多。

That's something that I think starts to hockey stick and actually grow a lot faster than it's even grow.

从大局来看，每天多三百万或四百万根本不算什么。

And in the grand scheme of things, 3 or 4 more million a day is nothing.

这只是个非常微小的数字。

It's a tiny, tiny number.

而且现在回购已经开始了，是按程序化方式进行的，跟Venice的做法其实很像，就是拿一定比例的交易手续费收入和其他项目来回购。这样一来，你就可以开始算算这到底能给代币带来多少回报，而且目前大部分代币供应其实都已经完全流通了。

And then now that you have buybacks starting on a programmatic basis similar to actually how Venice has done it, a certain percent of interchange revenue and other line items, you can start to look at what does this actually return to the token and the majority of the token supply is actually fully circulating at this point.

所以来自增发的压力非常小。

So there's very little pressure from emissions.

所以现在它有点像股票，或者像微软那样，有结构性的回购压力，而且没有新代币进入市场。

So now it's something like equities or like, you know, Microsoft in the sense that there's structural buyback pressure with no new tokens coming to market.

Blockworks最近做了一个很好的分析，他们用模型预测增长，而且为了保守起见，他们把增长率砍了一半，比现在的水平低很多。

Blockworks did a really good analysis recently on, you know, their model for projecting growth and they actually, to be conservative, cut growth rates in half from where they are today.

我反而觉得应该更快。

I'm saying the opposite, it should actually be faster.

他们预计未来十二个月会有2100万美元的买入和销毁。

And they got to $21,000,000 of buy and burns over the next twelve months.

如果你用一个稍微高一点的数字，比如3000万美元的买入和销毁，我觉得实际上可能会比这高不少。

If you apply let's say you use a number that's a little bit higher than that, say 30,000,000 of buy and burns, I think can actually be quite a bit higher than that.

然后你给它30倍的市盈率，这在类似新经纪商的世界里是非常合理的。

And you apply a 30 x multiple, which is very reasonable in the like Neo Brokerage world.

代币价格能涨到一美元以上。

You get to a token price that's over a dollar.

也就是说，从现在的位置看，大概有两倍的涨幅。

And, you know, that's directionally two x from where we are today.

但这还没算上估值倍数的扩张，毕竟它是链上Neo经纪领域的头部玩家，而且我觉得这业务的增长速度远不止两千万或三千万美元这个水平。

But that also doesn't factor in multiple expansion from there from the fact that they're the category leader for on chain Neo Brokerage, but also a business that I think can actually grow a lot faster than that 20 or $30,000,000 number.

再加上这支团队，我很幸运跟他们打过交道，知道他们执行力有多强。

And a team that, you know, I'm fortunate to know and know how well they execute.

所以简单来说，我觉得它有很多能推动发展的因素。

So yeah, TLDR, I I think it's got a lot of a lot of triggers that that can drive it forward.

我觉得 EtherFi 很酷的一点是，它符合现代初创公司的模式，就是团队不大，但用强大的技术。

The thing I think is cool about EtherFi is that it's it's fitting the model of a modern startup, which is don't have a big team and instead use big technologies.

对。

Yeah.

所以你看，以太坊对他们来说，基本上就是把以太坊打包起来再卖出去。

And so, know, Ethereum, they're to me, they're just kinda packaging up Ethereum and selling it.

比如，他们为什么还要搞个新型券商呢？

Like, why are they doing a Neo Brokerage?

哦，是因为我们现在有了代币化的现实世界资产。

Oh, it's because we're we have tokenized real world assets now.

我们现在已经有代币化的股票了，而且他们把产品从新型银行升级到新型券商的成本几乎为零，因为以太坊已经从新型银行进化成了新型券商。

We have tokenized stocks now, and it's it cost them almost nothing to evolve their product from a Neo Bank to a Neo Brokerage because Ethereum has evolved from a Neo Bank to a Neo Brokerage.

所以 EtherFi 的意思大概是，哇，你们以太坊那边有那么多优质资产啊。

And so EtherFi is like, oh, great great assets you have over there, Ethereum.

要是有人能把这个打包好直接卖给消费者，那就太棒了。

Let it'd be great if somebody just packaged this up and sold it to consumers.

所以我觉得他们不需要投入太多，这应该是个很精简、轻资产的业务模式。

And so, like, they don't need it's a very lean, slim, like, a low CapEx business, I'm assuming.

而且他们也不用为了从单纯的稳定币支付业务转型成新型券商而去专门组建一个新的部门，因为以太坊已经帮他们做了大部分基础工作。

And they don't need to, like, bring on and hire out a whole new arm of the business to evolve from simply stablecoin spending to being a Neo Brokerage because, like, Ethereum does so much of the legwork for them.

所以他们可以在保持精简的同时，实现相当高的扩展性。

And so it can it can stay lean while it can scale pretty high.

对。

Yeah.

最酷的是，你看一下新银行和新券商随时间的演变过程。

And the the cool thing is, like, so you look at the evolution of Neo Bank, Neo Brokerage's over time.

随着时间推移，他们从借款人那里获得的利息收入占比越来越高。

And over time, they make more and more of their money from interest income on borrowers.

以新银行为例，他们有70%的收入来自这块。

If you look at New Bank as an example, they make 70% of their revenue from that.

你看现在EtherFi，它还处于非常早期的阶段。

If you look at EtherFi today, it's still very early.

占比只有4%。

It's four percent.

就像你刚才提到的利用现有基础设施这一点，起初他们用的是自己的系统，甚至直接去跟潜在的资金出借方谈合作，好让平台上的借款人能借到钱。

And to what you were saying about like leveraging existing infrastructure, initially they were using their own systems and they were going like literally organizing deals with potential lenders directly to be able to facilitate borrowers on the platform.

你知道的，目前他们的信用卡相关产品里，用户借款金额大概在2000万美元左右。

You know, right now they have about $20,000,000 that their users are borrowing for the credit card part product.

然后他们就说，等等，这是在链上的。

And they're like, wait, this is on chain.

Aave其实已经做了一个相当不错的借贷产品。

Aave has actually built a pretty good product to do borrow lend.

为什么我们不直接部署一个自己的Aave v4实例呢？

Why don't we just have our own instance of Aave v four?

我们可以跟他们做收入分成。

We can do a revenue share with them.

他们做了个80/20的分成。

They did an $80.20.

就是80%给EtherFi，20%给Aave的收入分成。

So 80 to EtherFi 20 to Aave revenue share.

现在我们可以用一流的产品来运营，团队精简，成本也很低，因为嘿，这个DeFi产品已经存在了，而且相当不错。

And now we can run it with, like, a best in class product with a really lean team and really low cost because, like, hey, this DEFI product already exists and it's pretty pretty good.

Bankless Nation，我们为你们打造了一些东西。

Bankless nation, we've built something for you.

隆重推出Bankless MCP。

Introducing the Bankless MCP.

ChatGPT和Claude在很多方面都很厉害，但如果你问他们一些超出加密货币基础的问题，比如协议机制、代币经济，或者上周币圈发生了什么，他们的短板就露出来了。

Chad GPT and Claude are great at a lot of things, but ask them anything beyond the basics of crypto about protocol mechanics, tokenomics, or just what happened last week in crypto, and the gaps will start to show.

问题在于上下文。

The problem is context.

而Bankless这边，花了将近十年时间，建立了业内最深的加密数据档案之一。

Bankless, on the other hand, has spent almost a decade building one of the deepest archives of crypto data anywhere.

超过2000份播客文字稿，10000篇文章，还有无数与真正建设这个行业的人的对话。

More than 2,000 podcast transcripts, 10,000 articles, and countless conversations with the people actually building this industry.

现在，我们把所有这些数据都整理进了Bankless MCP。

And now we've structured all of that data into the Bankless MCP.

你可以把它连接到你的Claude或ChatGPT，然后你的AI就能用整个Bankless档案来回答你的加密问题了。

So you can go and connect it to your Claude or ChatGPT, and suddenly your AI can answer your crypto queries with the entire Bankless archive behind it.

而且每一篇新的Bankless文章或节目都会自动加入，所以上下文会一直保持最新。

And every new Bankless article or episode gets added automatically, so the context keeps staying up to date.

Bankless MCP 只对 Bankless 的付费订阅用户开放。

The Bankless MCP is exclusively available to Bankless premium subscribers.

你可以去 bankless.com，升级到付费版，几分钟内就能连接 MCP，然后你问 AI 大模型任何关于加密货币的问题，不管用哪个，答案都会好上一千倍。

So you can go to bankless.com, upgrade to premium, and connect the MCP in just a few minutes, and all of a sudden, your crypto queries to your AI LLM, whatever you use, will get a thousand times better.

所以去看看吧。

So go check it out.

节目说明里有链接。

There is a link in the show notes.

一旦你成为 Bankless 的付费会员，就可以加入 Bankless 的 Discord，告诉我你的使用感受。

Once you become a bankless premium member, you can hop into the bankless Discord and let me know how you like it.

有个激动人心的消息。

Some exciting news.

我们正在推出一个新播客，帮助大家理解加密货币的周期，以及如何应对。

We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how to navigate it.

我认识的最厉害的加密货币周期投资者，他叫 Michael Nato。

The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael Nato.

他运营着《DeFi报告》。

He runs the DEFI REPORT.

就是这个人，在10:10价格下跌之前给我发了卖出提醒。

This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the 10:10 price drop happened.

他的周期分析一直非常准确。

His cycle analysis has been absolutely on point.

我关注他好几年了。

I've been following him for years.

今年，我们开始每周录制播客节目。

And this year, we started recording weekly podcast episodes.

每一期，我们都会聊他的投资组合、他持有什么、市场结构、入场目标、比特币和以太坊的公允价值，以及我们处于周期的哪个阶段。

Each one, we get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure, entry targets, fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether, and where we are in the cycle.

每周三都会发布新一期。

There's new episodes that are released every Wednesday.

每期三十分钟。

They're thirty minutes.

时间不长。

They're short.

内容很紧凑。

They're punchy.

我觉得这轮加密货币周期比大多数周期都更难把握，所以让我们一起应对吧。

I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most, so let's do it together.

去订阅这个播客吧。

Go subscribe to this podcast.

在您收听播客的任何平台搜索 DEFI REPORT，比如 YouTube、Apple、Spotify，或者查看节目笔记里的链接。

Search the DEFI REPORT wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or find a link in the show notes.

现在有一集新节目在等着您。

There's a new episode waiting for you now.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

感觉就像是现代版的原始资金乐高积木。

It does feel like, the modern reincarnation of, like, OG money LEGOs.

他们就像在想，哦，我把这个接入我的产品，然后搞定，现在我就有了。

They're like, oh, let me just plug that into my product and boom, now I have that.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

这是

It's

最后几个问题了，问完我就放你走。

gonna be a last last few questions before I let you go.

你觉得为什么市场给 Pump 收入的估值这么低？还是说这是一种市场错配，反而成了个机会？

Why do you think the market ascribes such a low premium to pump revenue or is that like a dislocation that is an opportunity in the market?

你是怎么看待市场对 Pump 收入这块价值的定价的？

How do how do you think about the the value that a dollar that the market gives a dollar for pump revenue?

对。

Yeah.

所以我觉得市场看法正在转变，这也是为什么过去几周它表现不错的原因之一。

So I I think the perception is changing and that's part of you know, what why it's done well over the last you know, couple weeks.

其中一个原因是大家质疑收入的持续性。

One of the reasons is people questioned revenue durability.

他们觉得这故事我们以前见过了。

They're like, we've seen this story before.

OpenSea 经常被当作一个典型的例子，说它能产生数十亿的营收，结果十二个月后业务就缩水了百分之九十五以上。

OpenSea was an often touted example of like, generate billions of revenue and then twelve months later the business is is doing like 95% plus.

但我觉得过去两年多我们看到的情况是，这种营收其实挺稳定的。

And I think what we've seen over the last two plus years is actually this revenue is pretty durable.

它不会消失。

It's not going anywhere.

它实际上还在增长。

It's actually growing.

这可不是那种昙花一现的东西。

This is something not something that's fly by night.

也许个别模因币的价格会上下波动，但这就好比用 Hyperliquid 的话来说，它是‘金融之家’。

Maybe individual meme coins will go up and down but this is like the to use like Hyperliquid's language like the house of all finance.

它也是所有模因币的‘大本营’。

This is the house of all meme coins.

我觉得大家关于其持久性的看法正在改变。

And I think that perception around durability is changing.

其中一部分原因是，大家对这些收入的真实性存疑。

Part of that was people questioned like really the veracity of that revenue.

比如，这钱是真的吗？

Like, is it real?

虽然数据都在链上，这挺有意思的，但问题是，有没有什么特定因素在推动它？

Even though it's on chain which is kinda funny, but like is it being catalyzed in any particular way?

原因在于，推特上的加密货币圈人士，以及大多数交易活跃的资金或散户投资者，他们和玩模因币的人重合度其实出乎意料地低。

And the reason is most of the people on crypto Twitter and most of the like liquid funds or retail investors that that are trading things, there there's a surprisingly small overlap with meme coin trading.

我自己也一样。

Myself included.

我并不是整天都在Acxiom上刷来刷去的那种人。

I'm not like a trencher on Acxiom all day.

所以当人们看到这些数字，即使在去年10月10日之后仍然很高，他们会想，这怎么还这么高？

So when people think about and see these numbers that even after 10:10 last year continue to be really high, they're like, how is this still so high?

这些用户都是谁？

Who are these users?

我谁也不认识。

I don't talk to anyone

他们不信任这个产品的用户。

They don't trust user

这个产品的用户。

of this product.

但我觉得这根本就是不同类型的用户。

But I think it's just fundamentally different users.

一旦你明白自己不是目标用户，就更容易理解为什么这个业务能这么持久。

And once you understand that you're not the target user, it's easier to understand why this business is so durable.

另外一点就是，我觉得大家对模因币有一种负面的联想。

And then the other piece is just like, I think there's a negative association to meme coins.

但一旦你开始把它看作另一种投机产品，就像预测市场、短期期权或者那些一直很火的赌场游戏一样。

But once you start to think about it as just like another type of speculative product, just like prediction markets or short expiry options or like casino games that have been durable.

彩票市场可是很大的。

Lotteries are huge.

人们知道，除非你算牌，否则玩二十一点或其他赌场游戏都是负期望的，但他们还是会回来，因为有波动性。

People know they have, unless you're like counting cards, a negative edge playing blackjack or like any other casino game and they come back because there's variance.

我觉得大家开始接受一个观点，就是人们确实有理由去用那些负期望的产品。

And I think people are coming around to the idea that like there is a reason that people will use negative EV products.

如果对整个用户群体来说这是负期望的，那并不意味着你不会去用，否则彩票就不该是那么大的生意了。

If like for the total user base, it's negative EV, that doesn't mean that you won't use it because then lottery shouldn't be like the massive business that they are.

所以，我觉得这就是为什么它被低估了，而且我认为，你知道，这种情况正在改变。

So I I think that's why it's traded so low and I I think that's, you know, that's changing.

还有一点，业务里既有股权部分，也有代币部分。

One other piece of course is there's an equity part of the business and there's a token part of the business.

作为代币持有者，你具体能掌控什么，其实并不太明确。

They it's not exactly clear what you control as a token holder.

起初他们承诺了百分之百的回购，但这并没有保证持续多久。

Initially, they had 100 buybacks, but that wasn't guaranteed for any amount of time.

今年早些时候，他们说要把收入的百分之五十用于回购，并且保证持续十二个月，剩下的百分之五十则用来扩大业务和再投资。

Then earlier this year, they said, we're gonna do 50% of revenue into buybacks and we're gonna do it for guaranteed twelve months and we can use that other 50% to grow the business and reinvest.

这个明年要续期。

That's something that is subject to renewal next year.

对于一个他们持有大量份额、价值几十亿美元的资产，而且还在努力打造一个百年企业来说，我觉得他们不会放弃这个代币。但这确实是个风险。你怎么评估这个风险，决定了你的回购倍数大概是六到十倍，还是十到十四倍。

I for a multi billion dollar asset that they own a ton of and are trying to build a generational business, I don't think they're going to abandon the token, but that is something that's a risk that you know, I think like depending on where you think that's gonna end up, you can probably have your buyback multiple like six to 10 or 10 to 14 based on like how do you handicap that risk.

对，这也是另一个因素。希望《Clarity法案》能让他们更明确地表态。

But yeah, that that's just another component as well and hopefully with Clarity Act that that's something that that makes it a little easier for them to be explicit.

Austin，展望2026年底和2027年，以及下一个周期，你觉得这一轮周期的遗产会被如何定义？

Austin, when you look forward to 20 at the end of 2026 and 2027 and really to the to the next cycle, how do you think this legacy of this incoming cycle will be defined?

这个问题有点奇怪，因为我是让你往前看，然后再回头看。

Which is a weird question because I'm asking you to go forward and then look backwards again.

对。

Yeah.

但我们现在确实处于加密货币的新时代。

But we're firmly in a new era of crypto.

比如，超基础设施时代已经彻底过去了。

Like, the hyper infra age is firmly behind us.

我觉得，围绕新链的兴奋，不管是二层还是一层，基本上都是过去的事了。

Like, I think the excitement around new chains, be it layer twos or layer ones, is mostly a thing of the past.

不过，尽管如此，加密货币的不同领域似乎还是有很多活力和兴奋点。

But, nonetheless, there seems to be plenty of energy and excitement in different pockets of crypto.

那你觉得，在接下来的这个周期里，加密货币的未来会是什么样子？

So just how are you thinking about, like, what the future of crypto looks like for this next cycle?

对。

Yeah.

有一个很有意思的图表，我觉得Blockworks的图表也显示，在加密货币历史的大部分时间里，执行层和基础设施产生的收入占了总收入的95%以上。

So, like, one interesting chart, I think also Blockworks chart is in for much of crypto's history, execution layer, infra revenue generate generated, like, 95 plus percent of total crypto revenue.

现在，实际上应用层产生的收入大约占三分之二，而执行层只占三分之一。

Now, it's actually applications are generating about two thirds of revenue and about a third is generated by execution layers.

我觉得这个趋势会继续下去，我们会看到应用层产生的收入占到90%以上。

I think that continues to move in that direction and we're gonna see 90 plus percent of revenue generated by the applications.

我认为最持久的代币会是应用和货币。

I think we're gonna find the most enduring tokens be applications and money.

但这并不意味着比特币会消失。

And so that doesn't mean that Bitcoin is going anywhere.

这也让我对Zcash这样的项目感到非常兴奋，它在很多方面服务于不同类型的用户，体现了十多年前加密货币最初的核心理念，我觉得这就是为什么它能引起那么多比特币老玩家的共鸣，也是为什么它会看到这种结构性的资金流入。

It also makes me incredibly excited about something like Zcash which is serving a different type of user in many respects is the original ethos of what crypto was ten plus years ago and I think why it's resonating with so many OG Bitcoin holders and why it's seeing like these structural inflows.

我觉得以太坊实际上处于一个非常有趣的位置，有可能成为货币，这取决于比特币的情况。

I think Ether is actually in a very interesting place to potentially be money depending on what happens with Bitcoin.

考虑到Quantum，以及Strategy和其他因素导致的比特币所有权集中和风险，情况就更加复杂了。

With Quantum, the amount of concentrated ownership and risk related to Bitcoin ownership from strategy and other elements.

说实话，这让我对以太坊作为货币的潜力更加好奇了，这种感觉已经很久没有过了。

It actually makes me more curious about Ethereum from a money perspective than I've been in a very long time.

我之前一直是从收入的角度来看待它，当时我觉得以太坊被严重高估了。不过现在我觉得它这种有趣的期权价值正在慢慢回归。

I'd like looked at it from a revenue perspective for for a while which made me think that Ethereum was quite overvalued and I I I think it has this interesting optionality that that's kind of coming back a little bit.

但我觉得核心还是在于应用、使用量以及货币属性。

But I think it's gonna really be about applications, usage, and money.

说到使用量，大家肯定都知道以太坊的使用率其实非常高。

And when I say usage, you know, obviously, Ethereum is highly utilized.

像 Base 和 Robinhood 这样的平台使用率都很高。

You have things like base and Robinhood that are highly utilized.

但要是看链上活跃度最高的区块链，我觉得得看 Solana。

But when you think of blockchains with the most activity, I think you have to look at Solana.

Solana 是支撑 Pump 这类应用的基础。

Solana is what's enabling pump.

它在链上的现货交易活动是最多的。

It has the most spot activity on chain.

他们现在正处于一个转型期，虽然使用量非常大，但因为缺乏以前那种MEV（最大可提取价值），所以收入并没有那么多。

They're right now going through this transition where it's incredibly utilized but they're not generating a ton of revenue because there's not like the MEV that it had back in the day.

但我认为这是推动加密货币普及最有力的赌注之一。

But I think it's one of the most compelling bets for crypto adoption.

关键是要密切关注它随时间推移是如何演变的。

It's just like you have to watch how that evolves quickly over time.

对，回过头来看，我觉得未来的故事将聚焦于那些真正找到加密货币与外部世界交汇点的从零到一的应用，以及哪些商业模式真正产生了共鸣。

But yeah, looking back, I think it's gonna be a story of what are the zero to one applications that have really found this intersection of crypto and the rest of the world and what's the money that's resonated.

所以我觉得，像威尼斯的Hyperliquids、Pump、EtherFi，还有比特币、Zcash这些项目，会是大家看到后忍不住感叹‘哇’的东西。

And that's why I think, you know, the Venice's Hyperliquids, Pump's, EtherFi's, Bitcoin, Zcash, you know, etcetera of the world are are gonna be the things that people look at and and say, wow.

2026年出现了一些不错的入场时机。

Twenty twenty six had some good, entry points.

Austin，这次聊得太棒了。

Austin, this has been great.

谢谢你来到节目。

Thanks for coming on the show.

很高兴来到这里。

Great to be here.

Bankless Nation的听众们，你们懂的。

Bankless Nation, you guys know the deal.

加密货币有风险，但风险还不够大。

Crypto is risky, but not risky enough.

机构已经入场，所以我们要走得更远。

The institutions have landed, so we are going even further west.

这是一个前沿领域。

This is a frontier.

不是所有人都适合，但我们很高兴你加入我们的Bankless之旅。

It's not for everyone, but we are glad you're with us on The Bankless Journey.

非常感谢。

Thanks a lot.