下一轮牛市已至，显而易见 | Spencer与Aleks，Blockchain Capital

然后突然间，这种充裕的区块空间模式就占据了主导地位。

And then all of a sudden, the the abundant block space meta took over.

然后突然间，胖协议理论就宣告结束了。

And all of a sudden, that was the end of the fat protocol thesis.

你明白吗？

You know?

比如，ETH就是钱，那是那个理论最极致的体现。

Like, ETH is money was the ultimate expression of that.

而现在我们只是在往技术栈的上层移动。

And then now we're just moving higher up the stack.

所以现在我们有了胖应用理论，说白了就是，应用本身就是生意。

So now we're at the fat app thesis, which is just, you know, applications are businesses.

应用能够捕获价值。

Applications capture value.

这其实就是我们反复会看到的自然趋势。

It is that's just kind of, like, the natural trend that we would expect to see over and over and over again.

如果我们重新运行加密模拟，你会看到价值捕获慢慢向上层移动。

Had we reran the crypto simulation, you would just expect to see value capture slowly move up the stack.

我觉得，这其实是区块链不可避免的结果。

I mean, my my take here is, like, this is a sort of an inevitable consequence of of blockchains.

协议本来就不可能捕获大量价值。

Like, the protocols were never gonna capture a huge amount of value.

就像Spencer说的，这是关于去中介化金融，让系统从根本上更高效。

Like Spencer said, like, this is about disintermediating finance and making the system fundamentally more efficient.

这意味着，抽成会很小。

That implies, you know, a a small rake.

但我认为，更微妙的地方在于，或者说我长期思考的方式是，协议薄但市场大。

What I think though is maybe like the the nuance or at least like the way I think about this longer term, like it's thin protocols but massive markets.

所以，如果你抽成很小，但把全球金融的规模扩大一个数量级，按今天的标准来看，你仍然可能是胖的。

So like if if you have a small take but you expand the size of, you know, global finance by an order of magnitude, you could still be fat by today's standards.

在那个更大的系统里，你是薄的，这对所有人都好。

In the context of that larger system, you're thin, and that's good for everybody involved.

我觉得这又回到我之前说的，可能我在2021、2022年的时候有点太着急、太理想化了。

I think this goes back to what I was saying about maybe I was just a little bit impatient and overly ambitious in 2021, 2022.

现在感觉加密货币其实还是个挺小的行业，至少从老玩家的角度看是这样，但我们确实在推进很多当初设定的目标。

It feels now crypto is just, like, a pretty small industry, at least from the OG perspective, but we're doing a lot of the things that we've set out to do.

而且，就像你说的，机构开始上链，真正的金融业务也在上链。

And, like, to your point, like, institutions coming onchain, finance real finance is coming onchain.

从长远来看，这恰恰是它真正成为全球市场所必需的过程。

And in the grand scheme of things, that is what it is actually going to take in order to actually become, like, the global market.

说白了，就是把整个世界搬到链上。

Like, literally put the world onchain.

也许随着时间的推移，我们最终会实现这个目标。

And maybe just in the fullness of time, we we'll we'll get there.

我们只需要让真正的金融业务在链上发生，也许ETH就是广义上的货币，不是那种狭义的概念，而是那种宏大的版本——ETH就是货币。

If we just need real finance to happen on chain and, like, may maybe ETH is money in the the big sense of the word, not not, like, the moderate sense of the word, but, like, the the grandiose version of ETH is money.

但首先，我们必须把所有金融业务都搬到链上，这就是我们实现目标的方式。

But first, we have to get all the finance on chain, and that's how we that's how we do that.

这当然是我的看法。

That's certainly my perspective.

而且，从实际来看，ETH 就是钱。

And, I mean, empirically, like, Ethan ETH is money.

比如，ETH 在很多非以太坊的 L1 网络上都被使用。

Like, ETH is used on many, you know, non Ethereum l one networks.

它确实是加密经济中一种流行的货币。

Like, it is it's a popular currency in the crypto economy.

我觉得你没法说它不是，尽管有些人可能希望如此，或者编故事说没人会把它当钱或抵押品用。

I I think that no way you can argue it's not, you know, despite despite people, you know, maybe wanting that to be true or, like, telling a narrative that, no one's gonna use it as money or collateral.

但它实际上一直在被用于这些用途。

Like, it continues to be used for for for these for these purposes out there.

所以你在 Robinhood 链上也能看到它。

So you can see it on on Robinhood chain.

对吧？

Right?

自我保管赢了，但可用性还是有问题。

Self custody won, but it still has a usability problem.

纸上的助记词仍然是单点故障。

A seed phrase on paper is still a single point of failure.

手机会丢，设备会坏，备份会消失。

Phones get lost, devices break, back ups disappear.

BITKEY就是为这种现实设计的自我保管硬件钱包。

BITKEY is a self custodial hardware wallet built for that reality.

它采用2/3多重签名，密钥分布在你的手机、BITKEY硬件设备和区块上。

It uses a two of three multisig with keys split across your phone, the BITKEY hardware device, and block.

没有任何一把密钥能单独移动你的比特币，区块也永远无法独自操作。

No single key can move your Bitcoin, and block can never move it alone.

没有助记词需要丢失或泄露，如果你丢了手机、BITKEY，或者两者都丢了，内置的恢复机制能帮你找回。

There's no seed phrase to lose or expose, and if you lose your phone, your BITKEY, or both, built in recovery gives you a path back.

硬件屏幕还能让你在确认交易前验证收款地址。

The hardware screen also lets you verify the destination before approving a transaction.

这就是关键所在。

And that's the point.

更多的控制权，但不会因为一个失误就让一切陷入风险。

More control without one mistake putting everything at risk.

今天下载BITKEY，并使用优惠码bankless，即可享受BITKEY产品九折优惠。

Download BITKEY today and use promo code bankless to get 10% off of your BITKEY.

本期节目由BITKEY赞助播出。

This episode has been sponsored by BITKEY.

旅行奖励已经变得比实际需要的复杂得多。

Travel rewards have gotten way more complicated than they need to be.

积分会过期、有转点合作伙伴、有屏蔽日期，最后你还在怀疑自己到底有没有拿到好 deal。

You've got points that expire, transfer partners, blackout dates, and somehow you still end up wondering if you actually got a good deal.

COINBASE 则采取了简单得多的方式。

COINBASE is taking a much simpler approach.

当你通过COINBASE ONE旅行门户使用COINBASE ONE卡预订机票、酒店、租车或度假租赁时，符合条件的旅行预订将获得5%的比特币返现。

When you book flights, hotels, rental cars, or vacation rentals through the COINBASE ONE travel portal using your COINBASE ONE CARD, you'll earn 5% in Bitcoin on eligible travel bookings.

订一张400美元的机票，你就能赚回大约20美元的比特币。

Book a $400 flight, and you'll earn about $20 back in Bitcoin.

没有奖励图表，没有积分转换，没有兑换门槛，只有你可以持有或交易的比特币。

No reward charts, no transfer partners, no redemption gains, just Bitcoin that you can hold or trade.

而且，使用你的Coinbase ONE卡进行的其他消费，最高可以获得4%的比特币返现。

And every other purchase on your Coinbase ONE CARD can earn up to 4% back in Bitcoin.

此外，新卡持有人在开户后30天内消费满100美元，即可获得50美元的比特币奖励。

Plus new cardholders earn a $50 Bitcoin bonus after spending a $100 in their first thirty days.

所以，如果你有出行计划，可以查看节目说明中的链接，看看今天能否获批，而且不会影响你的信用评分。

So if you've got travel coming up, check out the link in the show notes and see if you're approved today with no impact on your credit score.

或者直接访问 coinbase.com/bankless。

Or just visit coinbase.com/bankless.

适用条款。

Terms apply.

更多信息请访问 coinbase.com/bankless。

That's coinbase.com/banklist for more information.

我交易加密资产快十年了，用过无数钱包、交易所、聚合器、前端界面，其实一直在找同一个东西。

I've been trading crypto assets for almost a decade, and I've used so many wallets, exchanges, aggregators, front ends, and I'm kinda always looking for the same thing.

一个界面，能跨多条链和多种资产提供深度流动性，还能保护隐私，同时我自己掌控资金。

One interface with deep liquidity across a bunch of chains and assets and the ability to act in private, and I still control my own funds.

但我一直没找到，总是在换钱包、折腾手续费，或者被滑点吃掉利润。

And I've never really found it, and I'm always switching wallets, juggling gas fees, or getting eaten by slippage.

Near.com给我的感觉完全不一样。

Near.com feels fundamentally different to me.

我的账户用起来很方便，可以在任何链上做我想做的所有操作，而且我的活动是保密的。

My account is easy to use, and I can take all the actions I want from any chain while my activity remains confidential.

它运行在NEAR上，已经用后量子签名处理了超过230亿美元的跨链交易，并且连续运行了五年多没有宕机。

It runs on NEAR, which has moved over $23,000,000,000 cross chain using post quantum signing and has over five years of up time.

Near.com是上链并掌控一切的最佳方式。

Near.com is the best way to be onchain and be in control.

通过Bankless链接注册，还能返还20%的交易手续费。

Get 20% of your trading fees back through the bankless link.

这个链接在节目说明里，不是投资建议。

It's in the show notes, not investment advice.

最近AI领域发生了一些事情，尤其是中国那边发布了DeepSeek，这压缩了一些AI领域那些“胖协议”的利润空间，比如OpenAI和Anthropic，它们因为拥有全球最顶尖的模型，用户愿意买单，所以赚得盆满钵满。

There's been something that's going on in the AI world, especially with the release of three from from China, which is compressing the margins of some of the fat protocols on the AI side of things, OpenAI and Anthropix, which are taking in huge rakes because they have the world's best models and people are willing to pay for them.

同样的经济规律是不是也在AI行业和AI实验室里上演？

Is the same economic dynamics kinda playing out with, like, the AI industry and the AI labs?

这两个行业是不是有相似的发展轨迹？

Like, do these two industries rhyme together?

某种程度上来说，确实，它们在融资方式上有相似之处。

So, like, to some extent, I mean, there there are similarities in in how they're financed.

我觉得很多相似之处最终会消失，但当你直面它的时候，有些东西实在太明显了，想不注意都难。

I I think a lot of the similarities end up breaking down, but, like, I mean, it's when you're staring it at in in the face, like, there there are some things that are, you know, too obvious not to notice.

对吧？

Right?

就像在加密货币领域，有些项目靠一份白皮书和创始团队就能以几十亿美元的估值上线。

Like, in crypto, we had, you know, l ones launching on a white paper and founding teams at multi billion dollar valuations.

这就像现在的那些另类实验室。

Like, that's like the alt labs right now.

对吧？

Right?

比如，你带着一份研究论文和从OpenAI、Anthropic出来的顶尖人才，你也能做类似的事情。

Like, you you know, with with a research thesis and elite talent maybe coming out of OpenAI and Anthropic, like, you you can do something similar here.

你知道吗，我们以前融资的时候，靠的是测试网上的出色表现或者TPS指标。

You know, we were raising money on, like, having really good maybe test net benchmarks or TPS.

所以，模型基准测试就相当于那个角色。

So, like, model benchmarks are are the equivalent there.

对吧？

Right?

就像交易所上线相当于超大规模云服务商的渠道一样。

Like exchange listings were like hyperscaler distribution.

所以，你知道，还有验证者、做市商支持这些方面。

So, you know, and and then obviously, like, validators, market maker support, this kind of thing.

你可以打个比方，就像云芯片基础设施的合作伙伴，还有代币价格，可能就像私募融资的估值一样。

Like, you could make an analogy to, like, cloud chip infrastructure partners and maybe maybe token prices like private financing valuation.

所以，你知道，这显然是最大的区别之一——代币是公开交易的。

And so the you know, that's obviously one of the big differences that the tokens were were public.

你有一个价格，就像实时的情绪指标，而在AI领域，这种信息是模糊的。

You had a a price on it, like, sort of a, you know, real time sentiment gauge in in AI that that's obfuscated.

它被私募市场隐藏起来了。

It's hidden by by private markets.

所以，那种替代实验室的叙事一旦瓦解，很可能看起来更像是折价融资、收购式招聘、人才流向其他机会，可能还有整合，比如一些超大规模企业可能会以远低于融资时的价格收购一些替代实验室。

And so, like, an unwind of that, like, alt lab thesis, you know, probably looks, you know, much more like, you know, down round structured financings, acqui hires, like talent migrating to to other opportunities, maybe consolidation, like some of the hyperscalers might, like, pick up some of the alt labs at, like, much cheaper than than where they were financed.

基本上就是战略控制和人才收购，而在加密货币领域，那种下跌是——你的代币一个月内跌了90%，因为叙事完全崩塌了，而且很明显，需求根本不存在。

The, you know, street strategic control, basically, and and talent acquisition versus in crypto, you know, that that that decline was, your token's down 90% in in a month because the narrative just fell out totally and, like, it became clear that demand wasn't there for that.

所以，从这个角度看，这些相似之处还挺多的，但从其他方面来说，加密货币我觉得更难把各个环节拼凑起来，真正让它能在全球范围内被使用。

And so, like, I I think in in in that sense, like, that there these parallels hold quite a bit, but, like, in in other ways, like, you know, crypto is just I I think it's been it's been more difficult for crypto to put the pieces together, like, to to really make it make it usable around the world.

这不像通过现有渠道部署一个像智能一样显而易见的产品那么简单。

It's not as as simple as just deploying through existing channels with a product as obvious as intelligence.

这是一种网络效应，通过连接全球数百个金融系统并最终吸收它们来构建。

Like, this is a network effect that gets built by stitching together the hundreds of financial systems around the world and then eventually absorbing them.

而这只是一个更长的过渡过程。

And that that's just a longer transition.

我认为，这更直接地涉及监管问题。

It it involves regulation, I think, in a much more direct way.

显然，人工智能也有监管方面的影响，但金融系统有一套既定的规则，加密货币必须找到自己的位置，然后在某种程度上为加密货币市场改写这些规则，这正是现在正在发生的事情。

You know, obviously, like, AI has regulatory implications, but but the financial system has sort of established rules that that, you know, crypto had to find their place in and then maybe to some extent, like, rewrite them for for the crypto markets, which is what is happening now.

所以我认为这就是类比不太成立的地方，但确实，尤其是在融资方面，这些相似之处非常有趣。

And so that's where I think it kind of breaks down, but, like, yeah, the the the parallels are are very interesting, especially on the financing side.

如果我们想继续这个比喻——我不想过度延伸，因为比喻只能说明一定问题——但就像胖协议理论一样，对我来说，OpenAI和Anthropic就是协议，如果趋势跟随加密货币的话。

If we are trying to extend this, and I don't wanna extend metaphors too much because they can only take it so far, but just like, you know, if the fat protocol thesis, which is like, to me, OpenAI and Anthropic are the protocols, does if the trend follows crypto.

而且确实感觉加密货币在人工智能行业前面五年，尤其是在监管方面。

And it does kinda feel like crypto is just five years ahead of, like, the AI industry, especially when it also comes to, like, regulation.

我认为人工智能将不得不经历加密货币已经或正在经历的监管斗争。

Like, I think AI is gonna have to fight the regulatory fight that crypto has kinda already or is working its way through.

但如果趋势真的从厚协议转向厚应用，那是不是意味着在大型语言模型之上，会有一个应用层，它提供所有价值，并且有点像面向消费者的前端？

But if the trend does go from fat protocol to fat app, does doesn't that imply that there's going to be, like, a layer above the LLMs around applications that also provide all the value and are kinda like the the consumer front end?

也许我扯得太远了，但斯宾塞，不知道你有没有什么想法。

Maybe I'm maybe I'm taking this too far, but, Spencer, I don't know if you have any thoughts here.

我觉得这个类比也挺成立的。

I think that's Like, I think that that that parallel works as well.

实际上，这就是亚历克斯·卡普和帕兰提尔在讨论的事情。

And the the reality is, like, I mean, this is what, you know, Aleks Karp and Palantir are talking about.

对吧？

Right?

就是需要有人真正把这些技术带入企业，并帮助企业从中获得成功。

It's like somebody needs to actually take this into the enterprise and make them successful on it.

对吧？

Right?

所以，拥有模型和智能是一回事，但如果它不能产生人们想要的结果，那又有什么用呢？

And so, like, it's one thing to have the model and have the intelligence that doesn't produce the outcomes that people are looking for.

所以我们从一些投资组合公司中也看到了这一点，那种前线部署工程师的模式正变得非常真实。

And so we see this even with some of our portfolio companies where, like, you know, that whole model of forward deployed engineers is becoming very real.

你必须产出结果，而不仅仅是提供原始智能。

Like, you have to produce outcomes, not just the raw intelligence.

所以它正在从单纯的分析和智能转向工作流程和实际产出。

So it's moving away from just analysis and intelligence and more into, like, workflows and actual outputs.

所以，确实有很多相似之处，尤其是在投资者情绪方面，我觉得这个平行关系最明显。过去一年里，很多人都在想，我不知道该不该投资AI应用。

So, again, there's, like, there's definitely a lot of rhyming there, especially amongst investor sentiment is the one where, like, I see the strongest parallels, right, where for the past year, it has been, like, I don't know if I wanna invest in any AI applications.

我可能应该把每一分额外的钱都投到前沿实验室去。

I should probably just put another every marginal dollar should just go to one of the frontier labs.

就这样。

That's it.

然后突然之间，我们经历了一次大反思，觉得，哦不。

And then all of a sudden, we had this big reckoning of like, oh, no.

软件护城河已经不存在了。

Software moats are no longer a thing.

那我们该怎么办呢？

What are we gonna do?

这还挺好笑的。

And that was kind of funny.

对吧？

Right?

因为我们所有人都在那儿想，等等。

Because for all of us, we're sitting there going like, wait a minute.

你们之前有软件护城河？

You guys had software moats?

我们从来就没有过软件护城河。

We've never had soft remotes.

我们一直都是在没有任何软件护城河的情况下摸爬滚打的。

Like, we've been navigating the world without any soft remotes the entire time.

对吧？

Right?

你看，我们整个行业都建立在任何人都可以复制的开源软件之上。

Like, our entire industry is built on open source software that anyone can fork.

所以，整个概念，比如所有关于价值会在技术栈的哪个环节积累的问题，

So, like, this entire notion, like, all the questions of, like, where is value gonna accrue in the stack?

没有软遥控器，你怎么建立防御性？

How do you build in defensibility without soft remotes?

看着一个全新的行业、一群全新的投资者，纠结于我们十年来一直在应对的同样问题，真是挺有意思的。

Like, it's funny to watch, like, an entirely new industry, an entire new group of investors wrestle with the same questions that we've been tackling for, you know, ten years now.

我确实觉得这个观点很好，因为从我的角度看，他们都在问同一个问题：我们该在应用层的哪个部分发挥作用？

I do I do think the point is really good because, like, you know, all l ones, you know, from from my perspective are you know, they're asking that question of, like, which part of the application layer do we have to play in?

而且，在一定程度上，OpenAI、Anthropic 和其他前沿实验室迟早也得问同样的问题，因为现在很明显，权重很大程度上会变成商品，但控制框架绝对不是。

And, like, to an extent, OpenAI, Anthropic, any other frontier lab that that joins them is gonna have to ask the same question at a certain point because it's clear I think today that like, you know, like weights are largely gonna be a commodity, but the harness is certainly not.

那么，你专攻什么呢？

And so, what do you specialize in?

当然，有些使用场景是不能出现幻觉、不能出错的。

You know, obviously, like there are some use cases where you can't hallucinate, you can't get something wrong.

比如半导体制造就是个好例子，那些能大幅提升制造效率的AI工具，其实并不是今天最前沿的模型。

Like manufacturing for semis is a good example of this where like the the AI tools that probably speed up manufacturing a lot are like not the frontier models today.

对吧？

Right?

而是前沿模型加上微调模型，再加上那些支持这些建设的公司积累的数据集。

It's the frontier models plus fine tuned models plus data sets that like the companies that are supporting this build out have accumulated.

我觉得在应用层这里，如果你能比前沿模型显著提升效果，那显然是有护城河的。

And there's very clearly a moat, I think, at the application layer there if you can improve outcomes significantly versus a frontier model.

那么，他们会去追这个机会吗？

So, are they gonna chase that opportunity?

可能不会吧。

You know, probably not.

我猜，取决于进入这个应用领域的难度有多大，他们可能不会去。

Like, my guess is depending on how difficult it is to move into that part of the application space, they may not.

但对于某些其他应用，他们会的。

But for certain other applications they will.

比如说，像会计这类工作，对吧？

Like I could, you know, something like accounting, right?

我觉得他们很可能会想办法搞定这个。

Like they're probably gonna figure out how to do that would be my guess.

但有些更复杂的领域，专业化难度大得多，而且存在一个反馈循环——你帮客户解决的问题越多，就越懂得怎么解决那个问题。

But like something more complex where like it's a lot harder to specialize, where there's a feedback loop, the more problems you solve for customers the more you know about how to solve that problem.

这些领域很可能在应用层创造大量价值，而这些价值不会泛化到模型本身。

Like those areas are probably gonna create a lot of value at the application layer where that's not gonna generalize to the model.

所以情况比较复杂。也许你现在能看到L1领域也有类似的思考——大家意识到，光靠协议费用长期来看撑不起业务，或者说，如果你现在有50亿FTB，可能市值已经透支了未来大规模采用的前景。

So bit of a mixed bag and like maybe you see a similar kind of thinking going on in L1s right now where you're realizing, look the protocol fees just aren't gonna sustain the business long term or at least there's no story if you're at like 5,000,000,000 FTB now, like you might already be at the market cap implied by like huge future adoption.

所以你得另想办法，找其他途径创造价值。

So you need to figure out something else, some other way to create value.

在加密行业投资了十年之后，我确实体会到，在加密行业里，投资者的经验是如何被磨砺出来的。

I do appreciate after being like an investor in crypto for a decade, how sharp teeth are cut in the crypto industry from being an investor.

也许所有投资都是这样吧。

And maybe this is just what all investment is like.

就像你开始到处看到规律，但这个规律感觉特别明显。

Like, you started seeing patterns everywhere, but this one feels particularly salient.

而且我觉得自己准备得更充分去投资AI行业，仅仅是因为我在加密世界里见过一些你在股票市场上永远看不到的把戏。

And I feel much better prepared to invest in, the the AI industry simply just because, like, I've I've seen some shenanigans that you would have never seen in the equities markets in the in the crypto world.

你见过那些把戏，所以你知道怎么小心那些三层SPV结构。

You've seen the shenanigans, so you know how to be careful of the, you know, three layer SPVs.

你见过那种疯狂的情绪波动。

You've seen the wild sentiment shifts.

你见过那些快速赚钱的骗子，他们一窝蜂涌入任何热门行业。

You've seen the fast money grifters that storm into any industry that's hot.

这可不是加密行业独有的现象。

That's not something that's unique to crypto.

任何热门行业都这样。

That's any industry that's hot.

对。

Yeah.

这就是人性。

That's the human condition.

完全同意。

A 100%.

现在市场环境的好处就是，那些人都被分散了注意力。

And that's the nice thing about the market environment that we're in is those people are all distracted.

他们都不在了，感觉真好。

They're all gone, and it's so nice.

说实话，我可以坐下来，从基本面分析这些公司，没有那些炒作和噪音。

Like, honestly, I can sit there and I can analyze these businesses on a fundamental basis without all the hype attached to them and without all the noise.

太棒了。

It's beautiful.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我们回到加密货币的世界吧。

Let's get back into into the crypto world.

现实世界资产的代币化、股票的代币化，感觉我们正处在这个领域的前沿。

Tokenization of real world assets, tokenization of equities seems to be like we're on the frontier of that meta.

而且，在美元代币化大规模爆发之后——美元算是第一个现实世界资产，对吧，第一个现实世界资产——这似乎也是一个合乎逻辑的下一步。

And it seems to also be a kind of a logical next step after we have just a massive explosion of tokenization of dollars, like the first real world asset, the first the first, the, yeah, first real world asset.

既然美元代币化基本上已经成了过去式，我们从中能学到什么经验？

What lessons now that we've have the tokenization of dollars more or less in the rearview mirror?

当然还有很多美元等着被代币化，但我们已经在做了。

Plenty of dollars still left to tokenize, but, like, we're doing it.

从稳定币领域的增长中，我们能吸取哪些经验，应用到股票代币化的增长上？

What lessons from the growth of the stablecoin sector can we apply to just the growth of tokenization of equities?

稳定币已经让飞轮转起来了。

Stablecoins have gotten the flywheel already spinning.

对吧？

Okay?

所以，在我讲这个飞轮效应之前，我们先退一步来看。

So that's gonna you know, before I even jump into the flywheel, let let's step back, like, a little bit here.

整个RWA（真实世界资产）的出现，我们是从一开始就在关注的。

This whole the emergence of RWAs, and then we've been following from the very beginning.

对吧？

Okay?

所以，我不介意偶尔自夸一下——我们是唯一一家同时投资了三大稳定币发行商（Tether、Circle和Paxos）的风险投资机构。

So we're I don't have a hard time tooting our own horn sometimes, but we're the only venture investor in all three of the major stablecoin issuers, Tether, Circle, and Paxos.

而且这些投资都是差不多十年前做的。

And all of those investments were made almost a decade ago.

对吧？

Right?

所以，你知道，经典的那种“十年磨一剑，一夜成名”。

So, you know, the classic, like, ten years to make an overnight success.

现在大家对稳定币都特别兴奋。

Everyone's very excited about stablecoins today.

我们十年前就对它们感到兴奋了。

We were excited about them ten years ago.

它们花了一段时间才发挥出全部潜力。

It took a while for them to realize their full potential.

即使到今天，它们也还没有完全发挥出潜力。

Even today, we have not realized their full potential.

对吧？

Okay?

所以，你知道，现在大概有三千亿的规模。

So, you know, today, we're at something like 300,000,000,000.

我毫不怀疑，到2030年我们会达到万亿级别。

I have zero doubt in my mind that we're going to the trillions by 2030.

一点怀疑都没有。

Like, zero doubt.

对我来说，这听起来像是一个近乎离谱的预测，但我可以给它打上90%以上的把握。

To me, that is like it's it's an almost outlandish prediction, and yet I can put, like, a 90% plus certainty on that.

反正我是这么有信心的。

That's my confidence level anyways.

那两万亿呢？

What about what about 2 trillions?

现在是三千亿。

We're at 300,000,000,000.

到2030年达到两万亿，你觉得呢？

What about 2,000,000,000,000 by 2030?

你觉得我们能到那个数吗？

Do you think we'll get there?

我

I

觉得能。

do.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

我真的这么觉得。

Like, I I really do.

我认为这个飞轮现在转得特别快。

I think the flywheel is spinning incredibly fast now.

我们要意识到，随着更多资金上链，链上所有应用都会获得更多流动性。

We we have to realize that, like, as more dollars move on chain, it creates more liquidity for all the applications on chain.

这会激励开发者开发更多应用来服务这个更大的市场，从而创造更多使用场景和实用性，进而吸引更多资金上链。

That creates an incentive for developers to build more applications to service this larger market, which creates more use case and more utility, which pulls pulls more dollars on chain.

从历史上看，这个飞轮效应已经持续了好几年。

And now, historically, that flywheel so this has been in place for now a few years.

正是这个飞轮在推动着采用率的增长。

That's what's been driving the adoption is that same flywheel.

如今，这个飞轮每转一圈都比上一圈更大，因为机构采用正在加速推动它。

Today, that flywheel, each turn of it, is larger than the last because it's driven increasingly by institutional adoption.

对吧？

Right?

以前，这个飞轮完全是靠散户驱动的。

Historically, that's been that flywheel was entirely retail driven.

所以现在，它转起来的时候，不仅拉进来的是资金，还有代币化的股票、货币市场基金、国债。

So today, as it spins, it's not just pulling in dollars, it's also pulling in tokenized equities, money market funds, treasuries.

基本上，所有传统资产都在被拉上链。

Basically, all traditional assets are getting pulled onchain.

那为什么呢？

And why?

因为我们的金融基础设施更好了。

Because we have better financial infrastructure.

对吧？

Right?

一个全球性、全天候、可编程的金融基础设施，就是更好。

Like, having financial infrastructure that is global, always on, and programmable is simply better.

如果我们想想所有的金融科技和金融创新，本质上，我们到底想做什么？

If we think about, like, all of fintech, all of financial innovation, like, fundamentally, what are you trying to do?

就是提高资本效率。

You're trying to improve capital efficiency.

那么，有哪些标志呢？

Now, like, what are the hallmarks?

有哪些迹象能表明我们确实建立了更高效的金融基础设施？

What are the signs that we'd be looking for that we've actually built more efficient financial infrastructure?

我关注的一点是，里面的钱是否在为你更努力地工作。

One of the things I'd be looking for is to see that the money that's in there is is working harder for you.

衡量这一点的一个方法就是看周转速度。

One way to measure that is velocity.

对吧？

Right?

看看稳定币的周转速度，大概是120倍，也就是说，在链上经济中，平均每个稳定币美元每年要周转120次。

And if we look at the velocity of stablecoins, it's something like a 120 x, meaning that the average stablecoin dollar turns over a 120 times per year in the onchain economy.

这确实非常惊人。

That's actually extraordinary.

对吧？

Right?

我得去查一下最新的数据，对比一下你常用的支付网络，或者像M1之类的指标。

Like, I'd have to pull up all the latest benchmarks comparing it to, like, what your favorite payment network or, you know, what m one or anything

等等。

else does.

我喜欢的支付网络可太多了。

I have so many favorite payment networks.

所以它的效率要高得多。

So it it's it's much, much more efficient.

对吧？

Right?

这就是为什么大量资金被吸引到链上。我们出于好奇，还专门算了一笔账，想看看稳定币上链到底带来了什么实际影响。

And so this is what's pulling in a massive amount of capital on chain, and we actually ran the numbers because we're curious of, like, what is actually the impact of stablecoins moving on chain?

因为这里有一个很大的误解。

Because there's this big misconception.

我经常从其他投资者和普通市场参与者那里听到这种说法。

I hear this all the time from other investors, from casual market participants.

他们说稳定币很酷。

They say stablecoins are cool.

它是一种支付产品。

They're a payments product.

其实不是。

Like, no.

不。

No.

不。

No.

它们实际上并不是支付产品。

They're actually not a payments product.

对吧？

Right?

因为如果你把它们当成支付产品来看，它们确实被用于支付。

Because when you when you have the mental model them as a payments product, they're used for payments.

但它们本身不是支付产品。

They're not a payments product.

这两者是有区别的。

There's a difference there.

因为当你把它们仅仅看作支付产品时，你的思维模式是：美元上链，从A点转移到B点，然后下链。

Because when you think of them as as just a payments product, the the mental model that you're thinking of is a dollar moves on chain, it transits from a to b, and it hops off chain.

但实际情况并非如此。

But that's not what's actually happening.

对吧？

Right?

我们看到的是，上链的美元往往就留在链上了。

What we see is that dollars that move onchain tend to stay onchain.

比如，它们的附着率非常高，粘性很强，会自然流入链上的各种应用里。

Like, there's a very high attach rate, they tend to be very sticky, and they find their way into the applications that exist onchain.

所以我们实际去做了个推演：如果新增十亿美元的稳定币发行，会发生什么？

And so we actually went through and we mapped, like, what happens if you have a billion dollars of net new issuance of stablecoins?

结果发现，其中绝大部分并不是专门用来做支付的。

And, like, the vast majority of that is actually not set aside for payments.

大概有一半多一点，会立刻作为运营资本投入到链上经济中。

Like, a little over half of it is immediately deployed as working capital into the onchain economy.

这些资金可能进入借贷协议、交易所、或者其他链上应用和专用协议，它们不会闲置在那里。

That might be in lending protocols, exchanges, other things that exist onchain, purpose protocols, and it generates it doesn't just sit there idly.

对吧？

Right?

这些运营资本并不是放在Aave或Uniswap里就不动了。

Like, this isn't working capital that just goes and sits there in Aave or sits there in Uniswap.

它们会催生出大量的经济活动。

It produces an enormous amount of economic activity.

所以，十亿美元的稳定币在一年内能产生大约1220亿美元的经济活动。

So a billion dollars of stablecoins in a year produces about a $122,000,000,000 of economic activity.

那么，这些美元并不是仅仅进入链上、转一圈就离开的。

So what happens is these dollars are not just coming onchain and transiting and hopping off.

它们进入链上。

They're coming onchain.

它们被用作运营资金。

They're being deployed as working capital.

它们产生了大量的经济活动，所有下游的应用、协议和网络都在从中获取收入。

They're producing an enormous amount of economic activity, and all of the applications, protocols, and networks downstream from that are capturing revenue from it.

当我们计算这些数字时，结果大约是每十亿美元的新增稳定币发行能产生约1900万美元的下游协议收入。

And so when we ran these numbers, what it came out to was roughly a billion dollars of net new stablecoin issuance produces about $19,000,000 of downstream protocol revenue.

所以，David，回到我们最开始的话题——

So, David, connecting where we started

这1900万美元，是每年产生的还是总共的？

with 19 different million, how do is that, like, on a yearly basis or in total?

你怎么看这个？

How do you think about that?

在

Over the

一年之内，在一年之内。

course of over the course of a year.

所以就是，好吧。

So it's just like Okay.

我们做了个思维模型，就是追踪十亿美元在链上经济中一年内的流动。

We went through this mental model, like, let's just track a billion dollars as it courses through the onchain economy over the course of a year.

这就是我们得出的结论。

And that's what we landed is.

产生大约一千九百万美元的下游协议收入。

Produces about $19,000,000 of per downstream protocol revenue.

所以，我们回到之前的话题，我想让你说完，但先聊聊数字，你觉得四年内会有两万亿美元的稳定币吗？

So just so we're going back in, I wanna let you finish, but just to talk about some of the numbers, you think there's going to be $2,000,000,000,000 of stablecoins in four years.

对。

Yeah.

而且你说你算过这笔账，有数据支撑，每10亿美元的稳定币发行每年能产生1900万美元的持续收入。

And one and you're saying the math, you ran the numbers, you got the receipts, $1,000,000,000 of stablecoin issuance creates $19,000,000 of revenue a year, reoccurring revenue a year.

所以如果再有2万亿美元进来，那就乘以2000，也就是1900万美元的年收入乘以2000，如果这些数字成立的话，这就是应用层将要获得的收入规模。

And so with 2,000,000,000,000 more dollars, multiply that by 2,000, so 19,000,000 of yearly revenue by 2,000, and then that is the level of revenue that's going to be coming in the in the applications if these numbers hold.

没错。

Exactly.

这正是

That's exactly the

要串联起来的关键点。

point it's gonna connect the dots on.

就是这样。

It's like exactly that.

所以我们才这么乐观。

That's why we're so optimistic.

这就是为什么我在展望未来，我简直不敢相信，居然有人在谈论熊市，或者觉得这个行业可能不太成功。

That's why I'm I'm looking around the corner, and I'm like, I cannot believe that people are talking about bear market or or they're feeling like maybe the industry isn't succeeding.

我真的觉得，这就像是比赛中最肥的一块肉，而现在很多人却把目光移开了。

I'm like, literally, it's the it's the fattest pitch of the game, and a lot of people are taking their eye off the ball right now.

对吧？

Right?

所以，大卫，就算我们假设，从根本上来讲，我们应该希望所有这些基础设施和应用程序继续像过去一样变得更高效。

So even if we, know, David, let's assume that, like, fundamentally, we should want all of this infrastructure, all these applications to continue getting more efficient the way they have historically.

假设未来每10亿美元的新稳定币发行能带来1900万美元的下游协议收入，就算只有10%。

Let's say that going forward, of 1,000,000,000 of net new stablecoins producing nineteen million dollars of downstream protocol revenue, let's say it's only 10.

那也还是很可观。

Let's say it's still big.

那依然很可观。

That's still big.

这些数字非常惊人，而这还只是链上捕获的部分。

These numbers are extraordinary, and that's just the portion that's captured onchain.

对吧？

Right?

这些只是链上的协议和应用。

These are just the onchain protocols and applications.

这还不包括像Tether、Circle、Coinbase、Kraken、TRM这些优秀公司所捕获的部分。

This doesn't include what's being captured by, you know, Tether, Circle, Coinbase, Kraken, TRM, like, all the great companies

因为那些你没法衡量，因为它们是封闭的。

Because you can't measure that because that's closed.

你只能衡量你能衡量的数据，也就是链上的数据。

You measure the data that you can measure, which is the onchain.

所以，这1900万美元是链上协议的收入，来自那些加密原生、老派玩家，就是最近有点沮丧和失落的那群人，那是他们的东西。

So, like, the $19,000,000 is onchain protocol revenue, which is, like, from the crypto native, the OG, people who are, like, sad and bummed lately, like, that's their stuff.

那是他们的，比如，CryptoPunk那种东西。

That's their, like, the cypher the CryptoPunk stuff.

是的。

Yeah.

而且可能并不涵盖所有方面。

And it might not be all of the things.

对吧？

Right?

比如，并不是每个加密货币代币都能从中受益，但我们确实看到很多你我从早期就开始关注的蓝筹项目。

Like, not every crypto token's gonna benefit from this, but we are seeing a lot of the, you know, a lot of the same blue chips that you and I have been following since the early days.

对吧？

Right?

比如Aave和Uniswap。

Like, Aave and Uniswap.

对吧？

Right?

它们正在参与这种下游协议收入。

They are participating in this downstream protocol revenue.

是的。

Yeah.

这正是我接下来想问的。

That was my next question.

就是，哪些类型的应用在获得这些收入？

It's like, what what what types of applications are receiving some of these revenues?

你能大致分类一下，哪些应用类型对每年每10亿美元发行量产生的1900万美元收入最敏感吗？

Are you able to kinda, like, categorize which are the the most exposed types of applications to this 19,000,000 per $1,000,000,000 of issuance of revenue a year?

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，当然，借贷协议和交易所协议占了很大一部分。

I mean, certainly, like the the the lending protocols, the exchange protocols, those are a huge portion of it.

衍生品平台之类的，所以——

Derivatives, venues So

像Aave、Uniswap、Morpho、Vaults这些，就是最近活跃的那些DeFi项目，大概就是答案了。

like Aave's, Uniswaps, Morphos, Vaults, kinda like the the the DEFI stuff that we see having activity these days is probably probably the answer.

没错。

Exactly.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，我们之前提到过，用户支付的费用结构已经发生了转变，从基础设施转向了应用层。

And so and I mean, you know, we we touched on earlier of there's been this structural shift of the fees that users are paying are shifting away from the infrastructure and towards the application.

所以，我们应该认识到，未来四年这种情况还会继续变化。

So, like, we should acknowledge that this will continue to change over the next four years.

也许基础设施会反击。

Maybe infrastructure fights back.

对吧？

Right?

比如，网络效应可能会更强，它们会获得更大的定价权，从而进一步挤压应用层的空间。

Like, maybe the network effects, like, materialize stronger, they develop more pricing power, and they're actually able to squeeze the applications a bit more.

有可能。

Possibly.

Aave 算是一个应用吗？

Is Aave an application,

还是基础设施？

or is it infrastructure?

我们内部也在讨论这个问题。

We have this debate internally.

我觉得它介于两者之间，或者说两者兼具。

I I'd say it's somewhere it's both, but Both.

亚历克斯，我想听听你的看法。

Alex, I'd like to hear your your answer to this.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得答案是两者都有。

I I think the the answer is both.

对吧？

Right?

就像，他们在自己的协议上运行应用。

Like, they they operate applications on their protocol.

他们还构建了协议，推出了新版本，并在研发上投入资金。

They also built the protocol and launched new versions of it and invest in r and d.

所以这算是两者兼有。

So it's kind of both.

Aave 的酷之处在于，它的后端是开放的，不像传统金融科技或金融机构那样，你可能向开发者开放 API，但永远不会共享状态。

Like, the cool thing about Aave is obviously their back end is open unlike, you know, a traditional fintech or like a financial institution where you might expose APIs to developers but in, you know, you're never sharing state.

你永远不会直接把流动性开放给别人使用。

You're never just opening up your liquidity for folks to use.

所以，我认为 Aave 现在做得很聪明的一点是，他们非常前瞻地预判了未来十年的增长驱动力——稳定币是第一步，这已经成了业务的一大推动力，对吧？

And so, I think the really clever thing that Aave has done now is like they're very much anticipating the growth drivers for the next ten years which is, you know, stablecoins are step one and that's been a huge driver of the business, right?

比如，存款基础中大约有一半，甚至更多，都是稳定币。

Like, think something like half the deposit base, maybe even more, are stablecoins.

而人们正是想用这些稳定币作为抵押来借款。

And that's the thing that people want to borrow against their collateral.

他们预判，下一个增长驱动力将是其他代币化的证券。

They're anticipating that growth driver is going to start to be other tokenized securities.

所以，你看，代币化的大宗商品、代币化的股票、代币化的私人信贷，当然还有国债，这些都在推动这个趋势。

So, you know, tokenized commodities, tokenized stocks, tokenized private credit, you know, obviously the treasuries have been have been driving that.

因此，像 Horizon 这样的举措，以及 Aave V4，都让 Aave 能够在这个领域继续发展。

And so, moves like Horizon, moves like Aave V4 set Aave up to continue to evolve in that world.

对我们来说，作为一个代币化基金的发行方，我们可以创建一个 Aave V4 的分支，注入流动性，然后突然之间，持有 BCAP 代币的人就能进去，用它来借出 USDC。

And and, like, you know, for us, like, as an issuer of a tokenized fund, like, we could create an Aave V4 spoke and we could add liquidity and then all of a sudden people who own the BCAP token could go in and they could borrow USDC against that.

这种能力现在已经成为可能，随着 V4 时代的开启——虽然现在还处于早期阶段，这种活动还没有大规模显现——但你不用费劲就能想象到，像 Aave 这样的平台现在能实现什么。而且你在 Uniswap 上也能看到同样的动态。

You know, that that's a capability that is now possible as like the v four era, you know, sort of begins and it's still early days for v four, so like that activity hasn't really shown up in a big way yet, but you don't have to squint to see what's possible now with with something like Aave and you're seeing the same kind of dynamic with Uniswap.

你在 Hyperliquid 上也能看到同样的动态，它现在正在为其他交易平台提供支持。

You're seeing the same dynamic with Hyperliquid that's now platforming other trading venues.

所以答案是两者兼有。

And so the answer is both.

加密协议同时是平台，而且很多时候，它们会先把应用层搭建起来。

Crypto protocols simultaneously are platforms and then, you know, oftentimes they build that application layer out first.

我认为在一个成功的世界里，它们会是一个出色的应用，也许是最重要的，但还不确定，我们未来会看到。

I think in a successful world, they're an awesome application, maybe the most important, unclear, we'll see in the future.

对吧？

Right?

但它们只是众多应用之一，这些应用共享一个更像网络化的金融产品，这个产品实际上是以代币作为价值单位来组织的，这和传统做法很不一样。

But they're one of many applications that share this this, you know, this this more like networked financial product that really has organized itself around the token as the kind of unit of value, which is a very different thing here.

传统金融里，你是在和机构建立定制化的关系。

Like traditionally in finance, are building a bespoke relationship with an institution.

他们只会给你一个有限的菜单，列出他们认为适合你的东西。

You're being given sort of a limited menu of things that they deem, you know, are appropriate for you.

在资产互联网中，市场围绕代币重新组织，你拥有资产负债表，表上有资产，这些资产具备各种功能。

In in the Internet of assets that's reorganized where markets are reorganized around the token, you have a balance sheet, you have assets on that balance sheet, those assets have capabilities.

你可以去全网搜索。

You can go look across the network.

这个资产在哪里可以用作抵押？

Where is this asset useful as collateral?

我可以在哪里质押它？

Where could I pledge it?

这就是正在发生的转变。

Like, that's the shift that's happening here.

这个转变很微妙，但威力巨大。

It's a subtle shift, but it's super powerful.

我有时候会用一个集装箱的比喻来理解这件事。在1950年代之前，货物运输时，板条箱、桶、麻袋都得一件件卸下来、清点、检查、重新打包——每次货物从卡车转到港口、再转到轮船、再转到铁路，都得这么折腾一遍。

And, like, I mean, maybe, you know, the the one of the ways I've I've kind of thought about this is, like, an analogy to shipping containers where, you know, before shipping containers, like, pre 1950, crates, barrels, sacks would be individually unloaded, counted, inspected, you know, repacked, like, wherever cargo moved between a truck, a port, a ship, a railroad.

这实际上让运输成本变得非常高。

And like this effectively made it super costly.

这意味着轮船得在港口停很久。

It meant that ships had to, you know, be be docked for a while.

轮船花在港口装卸货的时间，比在海上航行的时间还要多。

Like ships spent more time parked dealing with cargo than they did at sea moving it around the world.

所以全球供应链就被这种类似航运中的交易成本给限制住了。

And so global supply chains were constrained by by the cost of of, the equivalent of like a transaction cost in shipping.

结果就是，我们和其他国家的贸易往来就少了很多。

And as a result, we just did less business with other countries.

公司根本没法建立全球供应链，当时对绝大多数商品来说，这根本不划算。

Did like companies couldn't establish global supply chains, that just simply wasn't economical at the time for the vast majority of goods.

然后你引入了集装箱，并在六十年代到八十年代初逐步实现了标准化。

And then you introduce the container and you standardize it kind of in the sixties through the the, you know, the early eighties.

这并没有改变运输的货物本身，但它做的是，确定了建造港口和机械来处理这些货物的方式。

And like that doesn't change the the goods that move, but what it does is it says, okay, here's the way that you can, you know, here's the way you can build ports and machinery that can handle these things.

现在你可以建造更大的船，因为你能更便宜地运输更多东西。

Here now you can build larger ships because you can ship way more things more cheaply.

我记得标准化集装箱让装卸时间减少了大概97%。

I think it was like a 97% reduction in, like, loading time that that the standardized container produced.

所以集装箱重组了全球供应链。

And so the container reorganized global supply chains.

代币也会起到同样的作用。

That's what the token is gonna do.

现在虽然还处于非常早期的阶段，但代币基本上就是那个接口——就像标准化的集装箱是航运的接口一样。

And it's very early innings now, but, like, the token basically is that interface to it it's the interface in the same way that the the standardized shipping container was was the interface for shipping.

这就像是经济权利的接口。

Like, this is the interface for economic rights.

所以，所有代币都各不相同，具体取决于你赋予代币的经济权利类型以及这些权利的强度。

And so it does like, all to you know, all tokens are different, and and it it depends what types of economic rights and the strength of those rights that you build into the token.

这就是为什么我们在代币化领域会看到资产质量差异如此之大。

That's why we see this big spectrum of, like, quality of assets in in the tokenized space.

但关键在于，有了代币，你就能拥有像Aave这样的东西。

But the point is that with tokens, you can have things like Aave.

你也能拥有像Uniswap这样的东西，它们不是建立一个新的、由中心化公司管理、在某个特定司法管辖区内运营的金融机构，而是构建一个网络化的解决方案来应对这个问题。

You can have things like Uniswap that pop up, that build like a network solution to that problem rather than a new financial institution that's a, you know, centrally managed company that, you know, operates within one specific jurisdiction.

现在，你有了一个全球市场，一个充满机会的网络，代币可以在其中争取最优的交易条件。

Like, now you have a global marketplace, you have a network of opportunities where tokens can, you know, petition for the best deal.

所以我认为最终的局面就是这样。

And so I think that's what it ends up looking like.

这真的就像那种只有全球最顶尖、资本最雄厚的机构才能接触到的金融工程，现在变成了任何人都能参与的游戏，哪怕你只有一千美元的储蓄账户。

It's really like, you know, the the the type of financial engineering that is accessible only to the most sophisticated and well capitalized institutions around the world, that becomes just like the state of play for anyone even down to, like, a thousand bucks in a savings account.

对吧？

Right?

就是说，你将来能使用复杂的金融产品，也能参与到全球市场中去。

Like, you're gonna have the ability to use sophisticated financial products, and you're gonna be able to be part of of the global market.

不会再有那种进入门槛了，这将是革命性的变化。

Like, there isn't gonna be this this, you know, like, barrier to entry, and that's gonna be transformative.

所以我认为这些市场——你知道的——全球金融市场通过区块链上的协议协调起来，这些协议围绕代币重新组织。

That's why I think these markets are are you know, they're gonna allow like, the global financial market coordinated on blockchains through protocols that that that are reorganized around the token.

这样我们才能实现十倍的增长。

That's how we get 10 x bigger.

这样才能确保每个有才华的人都能获得机会，而有人愿意为他们提供资金支持。

That's how we make sure that there's nobody with merit that actually has an opportunity that someone out there would be willing to underwrite.

这就是未来连接机会与资本的底层架构。

Like, this is the substrate through which you connect opportunities with capital in the future.

这大概就是为什么RWA（真实世界资产）还没火起来的原因——顺便说一句，这也是为什么我认为私有许可链行不通。

This is the whole thing, I think, generally of why RWA isn't getting exciting is by the way, also the reason why the private permission chains I don't think are gonna work.

这些资产可能有一定程度的权限管理，但我认为它们必须是公开的，因为亚历克斯刚才概述的核心价值就是——嘿，

There could be some level of permissioning around these, but I think they must be public because the entire value prop is that Aleks was just outlining is like, hey.

我们要把这些资产从那些孤岛中解放出来，当我在其中一个孤岛里时，很难获得有竞争力的报价。

Let's take these assets out of these silos where it's really hard for me to get a competitive bid when I exist within one of those silos.

对吧？

Right?

理论上，我确实可以在嘉信理财用我的股票组合做抵押贷款。

Like, yes, in theory, I could borrow against my equity portfolio at Charles Schwab.

但这需要我打电话跟人沟通。

It requires me to get on the phone with somebody.

而且限制非常多。

There's extreme limits around it.

我还得获得批准。

I have to get permission.

整个过程充满了各种障碍，而且我根本拿不到有竞争力的报价。

It's it's it's a process that is fraught with friction, and I can't get a competitive offer for it.

对吧？

Right?

但突然之间，我可以在链上持有同样的投资组合，就会有一个开放的市场，里面有很多人愿意竞标，来争取服务我资产的权利。

When all of a sudden I can hold that same portfolio on chain, I now have an open marketplace of people that will want to bid for the right to service my assets.

这本质上对消费者非常有利。

This is inherently very pro consumer.

它有利于竞争性市场，这对所有人都有好处。

It's pro a competitive marketplace, and that's just good for everybody.

对吧？

Right?

但要做到这一点，你必须把这些资产从私有的孤岛中拉出来，放到公共基础设施上，让其他人可以竞争来服务这些资产。

But in order to do that, you must pull them out of these private silos, and you must put them on public infrastructure where other people can kind of compete to service those assets.

我一开始聊这个话题的时候，就在问，我们从稳定币中学到了哪些经验，可以应用到公开的代币化股票上？

I opened up this conversation asking about, like, what lessons did we learn from stablecoins that we can apply to to public to tokenized equities?

我觉得，Spencer，你刚才差不多说对了，就是，哇哦。

And I think, Spencer, you kinda just, like, rightly said, like, woah.

哇。

Woah.

哇。

Woah.

等等。

Hold on.

稳定币领域还有很多话题可以聊。

There's so much left to talk about in the stablecoin world.

这非常乐观。

That's very bullish.

我觉得核心要点就是，我们在稳定币方面还有很多东西需要去搭建。

And I think the the really, the TLDR of that is that we there's so much left to bootstrap in stablecoins.

但一旦你完成了这些，其他金融领域的启动条件就准备好了。

But once you do, the bootstrapping for the rest of finance is primed.

就已经准备好了。

Is is primed.

而且，这还会反过来满足那些加密货币的老玩家，每发行十亿美元就能带来一千九百万美元的收入。

And, you know, that and then also feeds back into, like, satisfy the crypto OGs with $19,000,000 of revenue per $1,000,000,000 of issuance.

这个指标我以后每期播客都会记住，真的太棒了。

I'm gonna remember that that metric for every single podcast moving forward is such a good one.

但这也创造了流动性市场，能把机构吸引进来，如果没有人在那里，它们是不会来的。

But then it also produces the liquid marketplaces to bring institutions on that they wouldn't they wouldn't have come if somebody wasn't there.

但现在稳定币到位了，流动性也有了，大家开始竞标利率、竞标借贷机会，突然间，机构就有了上链的空间。

But now that the stablecoins are there and the liquidity is there and people are going to bid for rates, bid for for lending opportunities, all of a sudden, there's, like, room for institutions to come on chain.

不过，让我回到最初的问题，因为我们正在从稳定币转向代币化股票。

But let me get back to the original question because we're moving from stablecoins into tokenized equities.

所以，Spencer，你对代币化股票如何上链并逐步增长流动性，有什么路线图或预期吗？

So, like, Spencer, what's your, like, your road map of sorts or expectations for how tokenized equities come on chain and then grow in liquidity?

因为我们现在已经有代币化股票了。

Because we have tokenized equities.

而且已经存在一段时间了。

We've had them for a while.

它们的流动性刚开始有点增长，但还远远不够。

There's they're marginally starting to grow in liquidity, but, like, they're still not there yet.

那么，你觉得到本十年末，代币化股票从A到B的发展路线图是什么样的？

So, like, what what's your road map for how tokenized equities goes from, like, a to b by the end of the decade?

好的。

Okay.

所以，有两点。

So so two things.

第一点就是可访问性，这其实也是稳定币第一波采用的关键。

The first one is just access, and this is kind of the first wave of adoption for stablecoins as well.

对吧？

Right?

结果发现，全球对美元的需求非常旺盛。

It turned out there was intense demand for dollars globally.

但实际上获取美元的过程却有很多障碍。

There was a lot of friction in actually accessing dollars.

其实大多数情况下，并不是说它们被明确禁止了。

It's not that they were, in in most cases, they weren't explicitly prohibited.

只是真正拿到手的过程有很多障碍。

There was just a lot of friction in actually getting your hands on them.

对吧？

Right?

一旦它们变成互联网原生、全球可分发的东西，稳定币——尤其是美元支持的稳定币——就迅速在全球普及开来。

All of a sudden, once they became Internet native with global distribution, stablecoins proliferated around the world, especially US dollar backed stablecoins specifically.

我觉得美国股市也是同样的道理。

I think the same is true of The US stock market.

国际上对它的需求非常大。

There is a lot of demand for it internationally.

是的。

Yes.

从大多数国家，人们都可以开设账户来投资美国股市。

People can set up accounts to access The US stock market from most countries.

这个过程并不简单。

It is not the easiest process.

说实话，在当今这个时代，人们只想点一下按钮就能获得访问权限，而我认为代币化股票就能实现这一点。

Truthfully, in today's day and age, people wanna click a button and get access to it, and I think that that's what tokenized equities are gonna do.

这对美国投资者来说不会特别有吸引力。

It's not gonna be super interesting for American investors.

对吧？

Right?

就像稳定币对很多美国用户来说也不是特别有吸引力一样，因为他们在美国通常能享受到不错的金融服务。

The same way that stablecoins are not super interesting for a lot of US participants that are generally reasonably well served by financial products in in in The States.

但第二波浪潮，也是让我更兴奋的一点，是你可以利用这些代币的可编程性和可组合性。

The second wave, though, and the one that gets me much more exciting is when you can leverage the programmability and composability of these.

对吧？

Right?

所以，这不仅仅是人们比以前更容易获得它们，而是它们实际上变得更好了。

So it's not just that suddenly people can access them easier than they could before, but it's actually that they're better.

对吧？

Right?

这就说到我们刚才聊的那个点了——一旦我的股票投资组合能上链，各种服务商就会争着给我提供最好的借贷利率，或者帮我赚证券借贷的收益，不管是什么形式，那才叫令人兴奋。

And this gets into the point that we were just talking about of, like, once all of a sudden I can have my equity portfolio onchain, and I have service providers competing to provide me the best offer to borrow against it, or to generate securities lending revenue, whatever it might be, that's exciting.

对吧？

Right?

所以我觉得这就是我们未来的方向，但这里面也有一些矛盾。

And so I think that that's that's the world that we're going to, but there is some tension in here.

对吧？

Right?

因为要获得可编程性和可组合性的好处，我们得好好梳理一下目前出现的几种不同模式。

Because to get the programmability and composability benefits, we we should unpack the different models that are kind of emerging here.

对吧？

Right?

比如Bakkt推出的XDOCS模式，后来被Kraken收购了，这种模式的好处是能在去中心化金融中获得完整的可组合性。

We have, like, the XDOCS model that's produced by Bakkt, which was acquired by Kraken, and the upside of this model is you get full composability in DEFI.

这些资产可以在整个去中心化金融生态中使用。

You can use these things across all of DEFI.

这太棒了。

That's fantastic.

这其实正是我

That's actually what I

想看到的。

love to see.

完全无需许可，就像离岸一样。

Fully permissionless, like offshore.

没错。

Exactly.

可能没有获得监管批准，但也不在乎是否获批。

Probably not clarity approved, but also indifferent to clarity approval.

我觉得说得对。

I think that's right.

我觉得没错。

I think that's right.

而且，这正是最让我兴奋的地方，但这里有一个严重的缺点，那就是你并不实际拥有真正的股份。

And and that's the part that actually gets me most excited, but there is a serious downside to them, which is you do not own an actual share.

对吧？

Right?

比如，我持有的是一种债务工具，它绑定在一辆车上，而车才持有真正的股份。

Like, I own a debt instrument that is tied to a vehicle that owns the actual share.

这就不对了。

It's lost.

告诉参与者这差不多，但这样可没法让代币化股票达到数万亿美元的规模，因为那些持有这些资产的大型机构——一旦你持有十亿、百亿、千亿的量，那就不行了。

Tell participants that's close enough, But that's not what's gonna get you to trillions of dollars of tokenized equities because the largest institutions that are holding these, like, once you're holding, you know, a billion, 10,000,000,000, a 100,000,000,000 of them, no.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

我其实想直接拥有股票。

I wanna actually own the share.

对吧？

Right?

而不是在开曼群岛搞个特殊目的载体，弄个债务工具。

Like, not a debt instrument into an SPV in the Cayman Islands.

对吧？

Right?

所以我觉得，这方面还是有点值得关注的。

So I think that, like, there's a little bit of attention there.

我认为这个问题是可以合理解决的。

I think it can be reasonably resolved.

我不认为实现完全所有权就意味着必须牺牲所有的可编程性和可组合性，但这确实意味着它不太可能存在于一个完全无需许可的环境中，因为我不觉得美国证券交易委员会会说，我们不在乎你和拉撒路集团交易苹果股票。

I don't think going to full ownership is gonna mean that you must sacrifice all programmability and composability, but it does mean that it's less likely to be in a a pure, fully permissionless environment, because I don't think the SEC is about to say, yeah, we don't really care if you trade shares of Apple with Lazarus Group.

这种可能性看起来不大。

Like, that doesn't seem very likely.

对。

Right.

或者说，我们也不在乎拉撒路集团会不会黑掉你的苹果股票。

Or I or we don't really care if Lazarus Group hacks your Apple shares.

他们顶多就是拿到苹果的股份而已。

They just get their share of Apple.

恭喜啊，拉撒路集团。

Congrats, Lazarus Group.

这黑客技术真厉害。

Like, sweet hack.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我觉得这其实反映了时代的一个特点，就是从我接触加密货币以来，币圈和传统金融一直是两条平行线，完全没有交集。

And I I think that kind of, like, begs the or, like, kinda illustrates the sign of the times where for as long as I've been in crypto, the crypto industry and TradFi have been on two parallel tracks, not intertwining whatsoever.

尤其是在2021年，像什么CryptoPunks、NFT、DeFi，还有ETH就是钱之类的，全都是币圈原生那一套。

And, like, especially in 2021, like, you know, CryptoPunks, NFTs, DEFI, you know, ETH is money, all this is crypto native stuff.

我们当时有一个并行的金融体系，我们是在与传统金融对着干的基础上建设它的。

And we had this parallel financial system, and we were building it in spite of TRAD FI.

我们根本不在乎传统金融。

We didn't care about TRAD FI.

他们当时得跪着来求我们，才能跟我们扯上关系。

They were kinda going to come begging on their knees to become relevant to us.

那感觉挺好的。

And that was great.

但现在到了2026年，情况变成了：哦，你们的区块链确实很酷。

Like, now in 2026, it's like, oh, like, your guys' blockchains are really cool.

我们正在学习怎么用它们，但我们希望代币能有点KYC，也需要一些中心化的中介机构来帮你们做这些酷事。

We're learning how to use them, but we kinda need some KYC on the tokens, and we kinda need some, like, you know, inter centralized intermediaries for you guys to do all this cool stuff.

对我来说，作为一个相信公开无许可访问的人，这是不可接受的。

And that's not tenable to me as, like, somebody who believes in, like, public permissionless access.

所以我不太确定该怎么调和这些矛盾，因为金融体系是按照特定方式建立的，与公开无许可区块链的运行方式并不一致。

And so I don't I don't necessarily know how to square these things because the financial system has been built in a particular way that is not aligned with the way that public permissionless blockchains are.