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嘿，Bankless Station。
Hey, Bankless Station.
我们有一阵子没做这种节目了。
We haven't done one of these in a while.
是时候来一期 Bankless Takes 了。
It's time for a Bankless Takes.
我们来聊聊 L2 在以太坊中的作用。
We're talking about the role of L2s in Ethereum.
如果你能被 Bankless 用一整期节目来讨论，那你就是加密圈的大人物了。
And you know you're a big deal in crypto if Bankless will spend an entire show on Okay?
我们今天要讨论的，只是一条 Vitalik 的推文。
One single This is a Vitalik tweet that we're gonna talk about.
这是一条推文，我想它曾传遍全球。
This was a tweet, I think, that echoed around the world.
在我看来，在你看来，这都意义重大，因为它仿佛标志着一个时代的结束和一个新时代的开始。
It's pretty significant in my mind, in your mind, because it feels like it marks at the end of an era and the beginning of a new era.
我会
I would
说像是一个句号。
say like a bookend.
对，一个句号，不是指一条推文，而是另一篇Vitalik的帖子，我们在2020年专门做过一期播客，当时他在2020年10月提出了以Rollup为中心的路线图。
Yeah, a bookend to a not a tweet, but like another Vitalik post that we also did a dedicated podcast on in 2020, where he introduced the Rollup centric roadmap in October 2020.
而如今，这期节目则是关于2026年以Rollup为中心的路线图的收官。
And now this is a episode about the conclusion of the Rollup centric roadmap in 2026.
我认为这一点尤其重要。
And I think that's that in particular is important.
我们必须谨慎用词，因为这并不是Rollup路线图的终结。
We we have to choose our words carefully because it's the conclusion not of the roll up road map.
Rollup路线图仍在继续。
The roll up road map continues.
嗯。
Mhmm.
但这是Rollup中心化路线的终点。
But it is the conclusion of the roll roll up centric
因为'中心化'这个词正在被剔除。
Sent because the centric word is being ejected.
没错。
Exactly.
所以五年来，Rollup一直是以太坊的核心焦点。
And so the roll ups for five years in Ethereum were the center center point.
那就是这条路线，这个重点。
That was the road that was the focus.
这就是我们扩展以太坊的方式。
That was how we're going to scale Ethereum.
我认为这条推文标志着某种新的转变。
And I think this tweet signifies something new.
那我们来深入探讨一下。
So let's get into it.
维塔利克具体在哪一天说了什么？
What exactly did Vitalik say on what day was it?
2026年2月3日。
02/03/2026.
他说了什么？
What did he say?
2月3日。
February 3.
他说了什么和没说什么非常重要，因为推特上有很多观点和解读，其实都是对维塔利克推文的误解或错误理解。
What did he say and what he did not say is pretty important because there were a lot of opinions and takes on Twitter that were just misunderstandings or bad readings of Vitalik's tweet.
同意。
So Agreed.
维塔利克说了什么？
What did Vitalik say?
我认为我和瑞安都认同的要点是，这条推文的核心在于这两个事实，我们会分别讨论这两个事实。
The punchline that I think Ryan and I agree of is, like, what this tweet the really the big the punchline of this tweet is for both of these facts we'll talk about what these two facts are.
基于这两个事实各自的原因，Layer 2及其在以太坊中的原始角色定位已不再合理，我们需要探索新的发展路径。
For both of these facts, for their own separate reasons, means that the original path of layer twos and their role in Ethereum no longer makes sense, and we need a new path.
这就是原有路径的终点。
That's the ending of the path.
这是核心部分的终结。
That's the ending of the centric part.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yes.
这就是以Rollup为中心路径的终点。
That's the ending of the centric path.
所以Vitalik基本上是在说以太坊需要一个新的不以Rollup为中心的路线图。
And so Vitalik is basically saying Ethereum needs a new non roll up centric roadmap.
Vitalik得出这个结论的两个核心数据依据，他提到的两点是：第二阶段Rollup和Rollup互操作性的进展比预期要缓慢和困难得多。
The two core bits of data as to why Vitalik comes to this conclusion, the two bits that he was referring to, is that stage two roll ups and roll up interoperability has been far more slow and difficult than previously expected.
第二阶段的Rollup意味着Rollup发展成为以太坊完全去中心化的代码扩展，第二阶段Rollup的区块空间享有以太坊安全性的充分信任与信用。
Stage two roll ups essentially means that roll ups get to the point where they are complete decentralized code based extensions of Ethereum that they are the block space of a layer two stage two roll up is given the full faith and credit of Ethereum security.
没错。
That's right.
我们无法达到那个阶段。
We cannot get there.
作为一个行业，我们似乎很难将Rollup生态系统推进到第二阶段。
We it's been seemingly difficult as an industry to move our roll up ecosystem into stage two.
我们似乎卡在了第一阶段，而且有充分的理由。
We seemingly are stuck on stage one and for a good reason.
是的。
Yes.
这是其中一部分。
That's one part of it.
安全方面的因素。
The security part of it.
第二部分是互操作性方面。
The second part of it is the interoperability part of it.
这就是我对roll ups和扩展以太坊区块空间的愿景——我认为是这些roll ups之间的共享流动性。
And this is the vision of roll ups and scaling Ethereum block space, I thought, was shared liquidity across all of these roll ups.
这就是为什么共享
And that's why Shared
网络效应、共享状态、共享。
network effects, shared state, shared.
共享。
Shared.
共享。
Shared.
但并没有实现共享。
And it's not shared.
感觉非常碎片化。
It feels very fragmented.
这就是他为什么把互操作性列为第二点的原因。
That's why he mentions interop as the second.
所以，这是第一个核心部分。
So that that's the the the first core bit.
第二个是什么？
What's the second?
你试过Showdown吗？
Have you checked out Showdown yet?
Showdown是由《炉石传说》、《万智牌》和扑克领域的世界顶级玩家从零重建的扑克游戏。
Showdown is poker rebuilt from the ground up by some of the world's top players in Hearthstone, Magic the Gathering, and Poker.
通过Showdown的动作卡，为扑克游戏增添了一层新的玩法。
With Showdown's action cards, an additional layer of gameplay is added onto the game of poker.
动作卡为对战玩家提供了更多自主性、策略性和赢得底池的技巧。
Action cards give dueling players more agency, strategy, and tricks for winning the pot.
Showdown基于Mega ETH的实时区块链，完全抽象掉了所有加密货币相关的复杂性。
Built on Mega ETH's real time blockchain, Showdown has completely abstracted away everything crypto.
Privy 隐藏了钱包。
Privy hides the wallet.
支付和存款流程无缝衔接，Mega ETH 让所有操作实时完成且零手续费，使 Showdown 能够毫无障碍地吸引你的朋友加入。
There's seamless payment and deposit flows, and Mega ETH makes everything happen in real time and zero fees, making Showdown ready to onboard your friends without any friction.
它也是免费游玩的，并且没有付费赢取机制。
It's also free to play and built without any pay to win mechanics.
玩家在自由市场中竞争，赌注是真金白银。
Players compete in the free market and with real money on the line.
Showdown 在后台使用 Mega ETH 的 USDM 进行游戏。
Showdown is played with Mega ETH's USDM in the background.
因此，当玩家向 Showdown 存入资金时，这些资金会被转换为连接 Showdown 与 USDM 飞轮的资产，而所有 Mega ETH 应用都参与这一飞轮。
So when players deposit money into Showdown, it's converted into connecting Showdown to the USDM flywheel that all Mega ETH apps contribute to.
你可以免费玩 Showdown，先练习并提升技巧，等对真 USDM 投注感到安心后再下注。
You can play Showdown for free, you can practice and get good before you get comfortable with real USDM on the line.
用 Showdown 体验前所未有的扑克游戏。
Experience poker like never before with Showdown.
前往 alpha.showdown.game 体验一下。
Check it out at alpha.showdown.game.
如果你能用和交易加密货币相同的工具和速度来交易黄金、外汇和全球市场，会怎样？
What if you could trade gold, forex, and global markets with the same tools and speed that you use for crypto?
这正是 Bitget TradFi 所实现的功能。
That's exactly what Bitget TradFi unlocks.
在经历了强劲的测试版需求，包括单日黄金交易量超过一亿美元后，Bitget TradFi 现已向所有用户开放。
After strong beta demand, including over a $100,000,000 in single day gold trading volume, Bitget TradFi is now live for all users.
在你现有的 Bitget 账户内，你可以交易涵盖外汇、贵金属、指数和商品的 79 种金融工具，所有交易均直接以 USDT 结算。
Inside of your existing Bitget account, you can trade 79 instruments across forex, precious metals, indices, and commodities, all settled directly in USDT.
无需切换平台，也无需法币兑换。
No platform switching and no fiat conversions.
这就是 Bitget 普适性交易所愿景的现实体现。
This is Bitget's universal exchange vision in action.
加密货币与传统金融并肩共存。
Crypto and traditional finance side by side.
你可以获得深厚的流动性、低滑点，以及最高达500倍的杠杆，让你将加密货币的策略应用于宏观市场。
You get deep liquidity, low slippage, and leverage up to 500 x, letting you apply crypto strategies to macro markets.
对传统金融还不熟悉？
New to TradFi?
从黄金开始。
Start with gold.
黄金
The gold
美元对流动性强、受宏观因素驱动，是加密货币与传统市场之间自然的连接桥梁。
USD pair is liquid, macro driven, and a familiar natural bridge between crypto and traditional markets.
立即在bitget.com交易黄金。
Try trading gold on Bitget now at bitget.com.
点击节目说明中的链接获取更多信息。
Click the link in the show notes for more information.
这不是财务建议。
This is not financial advice.
第二个核心点是，一层扩容现在实际上已经取得了显著的进展。
The second core bit is that, layer one scaling is out now actually catching up to a meaningful degree.
ZKVM，我认为这是这条推文中被低估的部分，我们稍后会解释原因，但ZKVM以及整体的一层区块空间预计在2026年将大幅增长。
The ZKVM, which I think was an understated part of this tweet, and we'll go into why, but the ZKVM and overall layer one block space is going to quote, projected to increase greatly in 2026.
所以Vitalik只是强调，实际上我们完全可以直接在一层上实现这些功能。
So Vitalik just highlights like, actually, we can just do the things on the layer one.
我们不仅能以传统的意义——通过更高的吞吐量和更快的出块时间——来扩展一层，还能借助ZKVM这一技术，将以太坊的扩展能力提升到远超任何其他一层网络的水平。
Not only can we scale the layer one in like the traditional sense with more throughput and faster block times, but we also have this ZKVM thing, which will massively scale Ethereum far far beyond what any other layer one could ever do ever.
这就让看涨的理由站得住脚了。
That's Let's the bullish go there.
我们来深入探讨这条路径。
Let's go down that path.
是的。
Yeah.
这才是看涨的核心点，而这一点在五六年前根本不存在。
That's the that's the bullish piece, and that was not available importantly six, like five, six years ago.
没错。
Correct.
五六年之前，20年还远着呢。
20 is five, six years ago where A decade away.
对。
Right.
结果发现，它们今天其实已经实现了。
And turns out they were they're kinda here today.
这就是为什么2020年时的Rollup中心路线图，以及以太坊当时所走的路径，如今不再合理了。
There's I I so those are the two core bits why the roll up centric roadmap as it was in 2020 and as Ethereum the the track that Ethereum had been on no longer makes sense.
不过，大卫，这里还有更多情况发生。
There's some more happening here, though, David.
这涉及到一个问题，那就是：以太坊到底是什么？
And this is some association of the question of, like, what is Ethereum?
以太坊的品牌、价值观和社区。
The Ethereum brand, values the community.
这条推文提到了这一点，而且他几天后又发了一条推文，我们也可以聊聊。
And both this tweet mentions that, and then he tweeted something later, couple days later that we we may wanna touch on too.
但他表示，L1 不需要将 L2 打上分片的标签，因为 L1 本身已经在扩展。
But he said, l one does not need l twos to be branded shards because l one itself is scaling.
这就是我们之前讨论过的观点。
So that's the point we talked about.
他还说，我们应该停止把 L2 当作具有社会地位和相应责任的、真正意义上的以太坊分片。
And he said we should stop thinking about l twos as literally being branded shards of Ethereum with the social status and responsibilities that this entails.
相反，我们可以把 L2 看作一个完整的谱系。
Instead, we can think of l twos as being a full spectrum.
对。
Right.
这涉及到一个原因，我认为，这正是我的理论：为什么 Vitalik 在这个时候发了这条推文。
This gets into part of the reason, I think, this is my theory on why Vitalik felt he needed to tweet this at this point in time.
因为正如我们后面会讨论的，这些观点中的许多内容对很多人来说早已显而易见，而且以太坊的路线图实际上已经发生了转变。
Because as we'll discuss later, a lot of the elements of this were already obvious to many, and indeed, the Ethereum roadmap had already shifted.
我的意思是，你早就感觉到了。
I mean, you could already feel it.
大概一年前就已经转变了，比如说。
Probably shifted twelve months ago, let's say.
对吧？
Right?
这条推文只是对市场和行业已经消化的内容的一种滞后反映。
Tweet feels a lagged reflection of what the market and the industry has already digested.
实际上，我认为法特拉现在的想法是，我觉得他早就这么想了。
And actually, what I think Fatella thinks at this point, I mean, I think he's thought this for quite a long time.
是的，他之所以公开发这条推文的部分原因，或者说心理动机，在我看来，是为了探讨以太坊究竟是什么。
Yeah, part of the reason or the psychology of why to tweet this publicly goes into as my take anyways, what is Ethereum?
这种想法，怎么说呢，我不想用太强烈的词，但可以说是对以太坊品牌的洗牌。
And this idea of, like, call it I don't wanna use words that are too strong, but a laundering of the Ethereum brand
或者我认为这个说法非常非常准确。
or I I think that's extract very, very accurate.
好的。
Okay.
在很多情况下确实如此。
In many cases, it is.
或者对。
Or Yeah.
对以太坊含义的稀释。
A dilution of what Ethereum means.
因为嗯。
Because Mhmm.
如果所有这些L2都是以太坊，但你却得不到以太坊级别的保障，嗯。
If all of these l twos are Ethereum, but you're not getting Ethereum level guarantees Mhmm.
而以太坊网络的流动性，你又如何能真正说它们是以太坊呢？
And Ethereum network liquidity, how can you actually say they are Ethereum?
这涉及到这个话题的社会层面，曾经有一个梗，很多以太坊社区的人，包括你和我，其实最初都曾认同过，因为这原本就是我们的核心信念。
And this gets into kind of the the social piece of this, which there had been a meme that many Ethereum people had started with that you and I even started with, I believe, because this was our our core belief, actually.
嗯。
Mhmm.
L2就是以太坊。
L twos are Ethereum.
这是
This is
L2就是以太坊。
L twos are Ethereum.
这有点像我们当初设想的路线图。
This is kind of like what we thought the road map was.
这是我们以为自己在构建的东西。
This is what we thought we were building.
你和我大概在十八到二十四个月前就放弃这个梗了，是的。
You and I abandoned this meme probably, like, eighteen to twenty four months ago Yeah.
当事情变得明显的时候，哦，糟了。
When it became obvious, like, oh, shoot.
当我进入另一个链时，它就不是以太坊了。
When I go into another chain, it's not Ethereum.
我不是在获得所有的东西，这不是第二阶段，我也得不到流动性，我们开始对此提出异议。
I'm not getting all of the it's not stage two, and I don't get the liquidity, and we started pushing back on that.
嗯。
Mhmm.
但社区很难放弃这一点。
But that's been hard for the community to forsake.
消化。
To digest.
是的。
Yes.
对。
Yeah.
所以确实如此。
And so there's yeah.
说吧。
Go ahead.
我认为通过这条推文，我们可以正式宣布Layer Two的Ethereum已经死了。
I think with this tweet, we can formally say layer two's Ethereum is is dead.
它其实早就死了。
The it was already dead.
现在，根本不可能再把Layer Two视为Ethereum了，而这正是我们正在承认的事实。
Now now, like, there's no way to look for layer two's to be Ethereum, and this is what we are admitting to.
回想一下2020年10月推出rollup中心路线图时的情况，当时的计划是打造第二阶段的rollup——第二阶段作为Ethereum区块空间的功能等效扩展，但不包含任何Ethereum的产权或保障。
And it's something, like, to go back into the shoes of October 2020 when the roll up centric road map was introduced, the plan here was that we would make stage two roll ups, stage two being functional equivalent extensions of Ethereum block space without any sort of lack of any sort of property rights or or guarantees of Ethereum.
Ethereum第一层的保障会延伸到第二层，也就是所谓的第二阶段，且不会有任何损失，你知道的，不会丢失任何特性。
The guarantees of the Ethereum layer one, because layer twos are stage two, get extended without lot with with without loss, you know, lossiness.
通过互操作性，我们将拥有这些共享的、保持共享状态和共享流动性的第二阶段扩展。
And then with interop, we would have these stage two extensions that would be shared, stay shared state, shared liquidity.
因此，通过一些抽象处理，我们就能将一切整合，形成一个统一的体验。
And so therefore, with some extractions, we would be able to abstract everything and it would be one unified experience.
没错。
That's right.
这一直是计划。
That was always the plan.
所以，像阶段二的Rollups，确实是这样。
So, like, stage two roll ups was like, yes.
Optimism、Arbitrum、ZK Sync会构建自己的Rollup，但通过阶段二和Interop标准，我们会将一切整合为一个统一的体验。
Optimism, Arbitrum, ZK Sync would build their roll ups, but with stage two and Interop standards, we would collapse everything into one shared experience.
我们正在说的是，这种情况并没有发生，我们必须正视这一点。
I this is what we are saying that, like, this is not happening and we need to account for that.
因此，当我们说Layer Two是以太坊时，这根本不可能准确，因为现在这些品牌化的分片已经成了独立的东西。
And therefore, when we say layer twos are Ethereum, that just cannot be accurate because now these branded shards are their own thing.
是的。
Yes.
我认为当他提到我们可以把这些Layer Two视为全谱系的Layer Two时，实际上是在释放Layer Two成为任何事物的潜力，而这一直是Layer Two的承诺和潜力所在。
And I think when he says we can consider these layer twos to be full spectrum, know, full spectrum layer twos, it's kinda unlocking the potential of layer twos to be anything, which was always the promise and always the potential of layer twos.
所以你可以成为任何东西。
So you can be anything.
你可以与以太坊建立任何你想要的关系。
You can be you can have any sort of relationship with Ethereum that you want.
它不必受到任何限制，比如你必须是二层网络，必须符合互操作标准，必须是以太坊的延伸。
And it doesn't have to be any sort of constrained, you must be a layer two, you must conform to the interop standards, you must be an extension of Ethereum.
我们正在拓展设计空间，摆脱对二层网络或以太坊的固有依赖。
And we're kind of like opening up the design space and going away from layer twos or Ethereum.
没错。
That's right.
我认为这里有一个让步。
And I think there was a there's a concession here.
我们之前已经读过，当Vitalik说二层网络在实现以太坊完全安全性方面进展比预期更慢、更困难时。
And we we've read it earlier when Vitalik said l two progress around full security of Ethereum and Indra has been slower and more difficult than originally expected.
我认为这是真的。
I think that's true.
我不认为这个路线图有什么阴险之处。
I don't think that there was something there's something insidious about the the road map.
我们将会推出所有这些L2，投资所有这些L2代币，风险资本家们将会发财。
We're gonna launch all these l twos, and we're gonna invest in all these l 2 tokens, and VCs are gonna get rich.
而且，你知道，我们一直都知道这不会成功。
And, you know, we always knew this wouldn't work out.
我真心认为，以太坊社区、Vitalik以及所有L2的参与者，还有我们在早期阶段接触过的所有团队，都以为自己在构建以太坊L1区块空间的镜像。
I genuinely think the Ethereum community, Vitalik as well, all the participants of the l twos, and all the teams we talked to in those early days, they thought they were building a mirror of Ethereum l one block space.
确实，他们原本就是想这么做的。
Indeed, that was what they were trying to build.
嗯。
Mhmm.
技术根本无法让我们实现这个目标。
The tech just couldn't get us there.
是的。
Yeah.
我的看法就是这样的。
I mean, that's my perspective on it.
我不认为这里有什么阴险的意图。
I don't think there's anything insidious here going on.
但到了2026年，'L2就是以太坊'这种说法已经站不住脚了。
But now that we are in 2026, the meme of l twos are Ethereum does not ring true.
没错。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
所以我们必须认清这一点，而且这可能从来就不成立。
And so we have to recognize that, and probably it's never been true.
这确实是他们的目标，但我们必须承认，我们永远无法实现这个完整的愿景。
That was the ambition, but we have to recognize that we are never going to accomplish that full ambition.
不过我想在这里加个注释，那就是L2也并非仅仅是侧链。
Now I do wanna put an asterisk here, which is it's also not true that l twos are just side chains.
好吧？
Okay?
正确。
Correct.
是的。
Yeah.
所以，如果你想要的话，这么说吧，这虽然不是一种网络迷因，但二层网络确实继承了以太坊的一些安全保证，嗯。
And so if if you want to, like, I mean, this is not in memetic form, but l twos do inherit some of the security guarantees Mhmm.
以及一点点以太坊的流动性，我想是偏好吧。
And a little bit of the liquidity, I guess preferences, of Ethereum.
所以它们确实继承了一些东西。
So they do inherit some of it.
是的。
Yes.
你没法把这一点变成迷因，但这里确实有一些东西，比简单地说‘不’要更微妙一些。
You can't put that in meme form, but there are things here that are, I guess, more nuanced than just saying, no.
二层网络和一层网络之间存在共生关系。
There is a symbiotic relationship between the layer twos and the layer one.
没错。
That's right.
没错。
That's right.
因此，我们可能会走向另一个极端。
And so we could swing too far on in the other direction.
我想，维塔利克的第二条推文也发布了，他发了一条推文。
I I guess the second Vitalik tweet also, he put a tweet out Mhmm.
几天后。
A couple days later.
他说他一直在关注我一天半前关于二层网络的言论的反应，并进一步澄清了一些事情。
He said he's been following reactions to what I said on l twos one and a half days ago, and he clarified a few more things here.
实际上，我觉得他主要是在重申他之前说过的话。
Actually, I felt like he was mostly restating what he had already said Yeah.
但用明确的术语来说。
Though in clear terms.
我们在他最初的推文中忽略了一点，那就是他认为L2现在在更新后的L2路线图中扮演着一个更加差异化的位置，嗯。
And a part that we missed in his original tweet is he sees a role for l twos to fill a very differentiated a much more differentiated place now in the updated, you know, l two road map of Mhmm.
2026年，他称之为第二代L2，这些L2不再是那种你连接乐观桥、把所有以太坊应用移植过去的EVM克隆链。
2026, called these gen two l twos, which is it's less an EVM clone of Ethereum that you kinda hook an optimistic bridge to, and you port all the apps from Ethereum over into these these l twos.
而是更加差异化的链，比如像Lighter这样的应用链，嗯。
And it's more differentiated chains, things like app chains like Lighter Yes.
或者像Aztec这样的隐私链。
Or privacy chains like Aztec.
是的。
Like Yes.
为这些链带来真正新颖的东西，嗯。
Bringing something net new Mhmm.
这些是以太坊L1在扩容模式下尚未具备的，尤其是在这个链联盟中。
To these the this alliance of chains that Ethereum l one does not already have, especially when it's in scaling mode.
差异化，我认为这是这里的关键词。
Differentiation, I think is is the keyword here.
在2022到2023年，当二层网络时代全面兴起时，人们大力推动以太坊的等价方案，即EVM等价方案。
Back in 2022 to 2023, when the layer two era was really in full swing, there was a huge push for Ethereum equivalents, EVM equivalents.
我的意思是，我当时也在推动这一点，因为在我看来，这才是我们实现一个庞大共享状态和流动性池的rollup生态系统的途径。
I mean, I I was I was pushing for that because that's how I saw we get to this, you know, roll up ecosystem that is one big one big shared pool of of state and liquidity.
那种想法已经死了。
That's that is dead.
以太坊等价方案已经死了。
Ethereum equivalents is dead.
这和二层网络不是以太坊是一个道理。
It's the same thing as layer layer twos are not Ethereum.
以太坊就是以太坊。
Ethereum is Ethereum.
EVM等价性现在只是多余的，现在应该走向另一个极端，变得非常非常差异化。
EVM equivalence is now just redundant, and now it's go to the opposite end of the spectrum and be very, very differentiated.
使用像Asheck或StarkNet这样的专用虚拟机，做以太坊一层永远做不到的事情，比如扩展性，比如Mega ETH，成为像Lighter这样的应用链。
Have a specialized VM like Asheck or StarkNet, and do things that the Ethereum layer one can never do, like scale, like Mega ETH, be an AppChain like Lighter.
别做以太坊正在做的事情，因为以太坊自己会做这件事。
Just don't do the same thing that Ethereum is doing because Ethereum is going to do that thing.
Vitalik在第二条后续推文中这样总结。
Vitalik sums it up like this in this second follow-up tweet.
基本上，第一点，如果你是L2，就做点什么。
Basically, number one, do something if you're an l two.
他说，这是我给L2的建议。
Here's my advice for l twos, he says.
第一，做些真正为生态带来新价值的事情。
Number one, do something that brings something actually new to the table.
第二，氛围要与实质相匹配。
And number two, the vibe should match the substance.
你与以太坊的关联程度，你的公众形象应当真实反映你项目实际上与以太坊的关联程度。
The degree of connection to Ethereum, your public image should reflect the degree of connection to Ethereum that your thing has in reality.
而第二点触及了以太坊被洗刷过的声誉。
And that second point gets to kind of the the laundered reputation of Ethereum.
对吧？
Right?
如果你是一个零层的L2，比如，你有资格自称是以太坊的正统部分，并利用以太坊的品牌来洗刷你的声誉，而你却并没有提供以太坊真正提供的那些东西吗？
If you're like a stage zero l two, like, do you get to call yourself right part of Ethereum and sort of launder the reputation of of Ethereum with that brand when you don't offer the things that Ethereum is actually offering?
没错。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
我们看到过一个最糟糕的例子，就是MoveVM作为以太坊上的一个L2，整个项目最终沦为了一场不堪的骗局——用直白的话说就是骗术。
And we saw that like one of the worst examples of this was the movement layer two, The MoveVM as a layer two on Ethereum, a whole project ended up just being an unsavory grift to use harsh words.
当我们无法掌控以太坊扩容的未来时，野蛮人就在门口，如果以太坊社区允许打着以太坊品牌旗号的分片进入，筹集风投资金，并向以太坊社区宣传自己是以太坊的延伸，而社区又因为‘所有L2都是好的’这种观念而追捧它们，这就是一种失败模式。
And like this was what was allowed when we don't control what the future of Ethereum scaling look like is like there are barbarians at the gate and if the Ethereum community allows branded shards to come in and raise VC dollars and promote themselves as extensions of Ethereum to the Ethereum community and the Ethereum community praises them because all layer twos are good, this is an a failure mode.
这种情况确实开始发生，并且已经走得太远了。
And that started to happen and and went too far.
同意。
Agreed.
好的。
Alright.
我们来谈谈社区的反应，然后你和我谈谈看法。
Let's get to the community reaction and then you and I can give Mhmm.
谈谈这背后意味着什么，以及发生了什么。
Our takes on what this means and and what happened.
那么，社区对这件事的反应是什么？
So what was the community reaction to this?
是的。
Yeah.
大概有五个不同的类别。
Like, five five different categories.
人们普遍赞扬Vitalik的诚实、适应能力和对真相的追求。
There's just like praise for Vitalik's like honesty, adaptability, and truth seeking.
有很多‘我早就说过’的言论，以及对延迟和浪费精力的批评和不满。
There were a lot of I told you so's and criticisms and frustration over delays and wasted effort.
约翰·夏尔博诺发了一条推文，贴出一个梗图，说：‘抱歉我之前说了那么多难听的话，但我是对的。’
John Charbonneau had this tweet where he tweeted out this meme saying sorry about all the mean shit I said when I was right.
我觉得他确实配发这条推文。
Like, I think he gets that tweet.
他有资格发这条推文。
He gets to tweet that tweet.
我不会抱怨。
I'm not gonna complain.
马克斯·雷斯尼克，他是最初提出‘二层路线图已失效’的人之一，刚刚发了一条推文。
Max Resnick, who was one of the original, like, Layer two Road Map Is Broken, he just tweeted out.
怀疑论者。
Skeptics.
是的。
Yeah.
他发了这条推文。
He tweeted out.
今天我特别享受使用这个应用，就像一边喝着茶，一边愉快地阅读这一切。
I'm very much enjoying reading this app today, which is just like a a coded of just like I'm drinking my tea and enjoying, like, reading all this.
我认为这两个人，他们的内心和思想已经某种程度上转向了更
Those are two individuals I would say that, you know, heart and mind have defected somewhat to the more
被分散的模型。
model distracted.
因为他们觉得，这些二层的把戏简直是胡扯，我们应该改变它。
Because they were like, this layer two shenanigans is bullshit, and we should change it.
但当他们意识到这不会改变时，就转去了Solana。
And then when they realized it's not changing, they went to Solana.
事情就是这样发生的。
That's what happened.
是的。
Yeah.
大家一致认为，二层网络不是以太坊。
There was agreement that layer twos aren't Ethereum.
史蒂文·戈德费德发了一条非常棒的推文串，开头是
Steven Goldfeder had a very good tweet thread where he started off with
我们应该说的是Arbitrum。
of Arbitrum, we should say.
对。
Right.
Arbitrum的首席执行官。
CEO of Arbitrum.
这条推文串的第一条推文开头就说：Arbitrum不是以太坊，这与之前的说法有所不同。
Number one number one tweet in the thread starts off with Arbitrum is not Ethereum, which is a divergence from previous rhetoric.
当然。
Sure.
所以，以前Arbitrum被认为是以太坊，现在Arbitrum不再是以太坊了。
And so, like, previously Arbitrum was Ethereum, now Arbitrum is not Ethereum.
而且，我觉得这样说才是正确的。
And, like, I I I think this is the correct thing to say.
Arbitrum 的厉害之处在于，尽管它也属于 EVM 等效阵营，但它是最早一批与 Optimism 一起实现 EVM 等效的项目之一。
The cool thing about Arbitrum is that, you know, despite Arbitrum also being in the EVM equivalence camp, they were like the one one of the first ones, them in optimism, to be EVM equivalent.
Arbitrum 还建立了自己独特的身份和文化，是的。
Arbitrum also established its own unique identity and culture Yeah.
这种身份与以太坊截然不同，我认为这为他们带来了极大的好处。
That was distinct from Ethereum, and I think that has served them very, very well.
我同意。
I agree.
所以，Steven，以前很多以太坊社区的人总是说 Layer 2 就是以太坊，对吧？
And it so so, Steven, many of the Ethereum community used to go around saying that l twos are Ethereum or Right.
Steven 过去也曾说过，Arbitrum 就是以太坊。
Steven has said in the past, Arbitrum is Ethereum.
我只是想指出，虽然这种说法不准确，但也不完全错误。
And I just wanna point out that while that's not correct, that's also not entirely wrong either.
对。
Correct.
是的。
Yes.
所以实际情况是，Arbitrum 是以太坊的一部分。
So the the truth of that is Arbitrum is partially Ethereum.
或者说，Arbitrum 是以太坊的盟友。
Or it's like Arbitrum is an ally of Ethereum.
或者就像，好。
Or like Yeah.
在维恩图中有重叠部分。
There's overlap in the Venn diagram.
对。
Yeah.
Arbitrum 是以太坊联盟的一部分。
Arbitrum is part of the Ethereum alliance.
所以，嗯。
So Mhmm.
我认为说Arbitrum是Ethereum并不一定是不诚实的，因为确实如此。
I don't think it's necessarily dishonest to Yeah.
就像说Arbitrum是Ethereum，因为它确实是。
Like say Arbitrum is Ethereum because it is.
但这里的故事并不完整。
It's just like not the complete story here.
你得加个星号，还得解释你指的是什么。
You have to put an asterisk and you have to explain what you're
实际上，Arbitrum打着自己的旗帜，但它是在Ethereum帝国的框架内运作的。
actually Arbitrum talking about flies the flag of Arbitrum and it does so inside of the Ethereum empire.
这差不多是对的。
That's kind of right.
好的。
Okay.
所以，如果我们想把这个类比成国家，我很喜欢这么做，你知道的，大卫。
So the way if we wanna analogize this to nation states, which I love doing, as you know, David.
好的。
Okay.
所以我认为这更像不是像科罗拉多州在美国联邦中的那种州。
So I think it's less a state in the union the way Colorado is a state in the union of The United States.
是的。
Yeah.
嗯。
Mhmm.
而更像一个盟友。
And it's more like an ally.
更像是，你知道的，是的。
It's more like, you know Yeah.
瑞典是北约的成员，受到美利坚合众国的保护，并且属于这样一个盟友网络。
Sweden being part of NATO, which is protected by The United States Of America and being this network of allies.
有点像，嗯。
It's sort of like Mhmm.
更像是以太坊的联盟，而不是像一个协调的国家实体那样的以太坊国家。
The the alliance of Ethereum rather than sort of the the nation, the coordinated nation state of Ethereum.
以太坊的法律。
Laws of Ethereum.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Exactly.
你知道的？
You know?
所以这是一个类比。
So that's one analog.
如果我们当初制定了非常强大的互操作性标准，以太坊的法律本可以被确立起来，那样的话，二层网络之间就会形成一个更紧密的联盟，但我们并没有。
The laws of Ethereum would have been able to have been established if we had come up with very strong interoperability standards, and that would have been a much stronger binding alliance between layer twos, but we didn't.
没错。
That's right.
史蒂文的整个帖子，我觉得非常出色。
Steven's whole post, I thought, was fantastic.
这篇文章挺长的，我们没必要读完全部，但有些内容值得进一步提炼。
It's it's pretty long, and we don't have to read all of it, but there's some more worth pulling out here.
他还说了什么？
What else does he say?
有一条推文我很喜欢，他说：维塔利克是对的，滚动扩容（rollup）的故事随着时间发生了演变。
There's a tweet that I I liked that he said, Vitalik is correct that the roll up story has evolved over time.
在2018年，滚动扩容（rollups）主要被创建用于扩容。
In 2018, ups were primarily primarily created for scaling.
这是对的。
This is true.
我们只是觉得，要用滚动扩容来实现扩容。
We're just like, we're gonna scale with roll ups.
他最后说道，如今，它们既关乎扩展，也同样关乎定制化和自主权。
He finishes and says, today, they're as much about customization and dominion as they are about scaling.
也就是说，即使第一层能够无限扩展，仍然有许多机构想要他们自己的定制化环境。
That is to say, even if a layer one could scale infinitely, there are plenty of institutions that nevertheless want their own customized environment.
而Arbitrum真正深入渗透的正是这个市场领域。
And this is the market sector that Arbitrum has really penetrated into.
为什么他们能赢得Robinhood成为Arbitrum Orbit技术的客户？
Why did they win Robinhood as a customer of Arbitrum Orbit technology?
因为Arbitrum Orbit技术是以太坊EVM技术栈的一部分，它极其稳健、高度发达，无疑是加密领域最优秀的开发者生态系统。
Because Arbitrum Orbit technology is part of the Ethereum EVM tech stack, which is extremely robust, extremely developed, the best developer ecosystem in crypto, undoubtedly.
它就像是区块链界的Microsoft Excel。
It's a Microsoft Excel for for blockchains.
而Robinhood可以根据自身需求进行定制，他们能够控制它，并且拥有它。
And Robinhood gets to customize it as they see fit, they get to control it, and they get to own it.
这是他们的账本。
It is their ledger.
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这种可定制性也是维塔利克在推文中所呼应的，这一切都关乎定制化的控制。
And that's the customizability that Vitalik also echoed in his tweet is like, this is all all about customized control.
这并不是关于扩展性。
This is not about scale.
你并不是在扩展以太坊。
You're not scaling Ethereum.
你能够根据自己的特定需求来定制这些功能。
You are able to customize things to fit your specific needs.
这就是阿瑞特rum的史蒂文所指出的，阿瑞特rum所侧重的方向。
And that's what Arbitrum is Steven is identifying like where Arbitrum is bent towards.
我觉得这是对的。
I think that's right.
我想深入探讨一下我在以太坊社区中听到的一些批评，除了你可能稍后会表达的批评之外，那就是：为什么这么晚才把这一点说出口？
And I wanna get into a critique that I've heard from some in the Ethereum community other than a critique that maybe you you'll express later, which is like, why did it take so long to say this out loud?
对吧？
Right?
我会这么说。
I would say that.
急切地想达到那个点。
Eagerly trying to get to that point.
好的。
Okay.
但是
But the
另一个观点是，像Vitalik，你本可以用不同的方式表达。
other the other point is, like, Vitalik, you could have said it in a different way.
这就是Steven表达这一点的方式。
And this is how Steven expresses this.
所以，如果人们觉得Vitalik表达的方式有问题，也许他传达的意思是，L2是死路一条或者没希望。
So there if there is the perception with the way Vitalik said things maybe, the communication that he thinks l twos are a dead end or dead.
对吧？
Right?
这是史蒂文的担忧。
This is Steven's worry.
他说，我担心如果以太坊被看作对rollup不友好，会促使它们离开这个生态系统。
He says, I worry that if Ethereum is perceived as being hostile to roll ups, it will push them away from the ecosystem.
需要明确的是，这并不会让它们转而选择在以太坊L2或L1上发布。
To be clear, it won't push them to launch on Ethereum l two l one.
相反，它们会推出自己的L1，比如Arc和Tempo，而以太坊最终将失去优势。
Instead, they'll launch their own l one like Arc and Tempo, and Ethereum will ultimately lose out.
这是一个微妙的沟通平衡问题。
This is a delicate communication balancing act.
对吧？
Right?
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
因此，有些人批评Vitalik的推文太过激进，或者像是试图把L2赶出生态系统，或者只是像
And so some have criticized Vitalik's tweet for being too aggressive or, like, trying to push l twos out of the ecosystem or that it's just like
这不是我的理解方式
That's not how
我是这么理解的。
I read it.
我不是这么理解的。
That's not how I read it.
有些人会这么解读，认为以太坊在这种时候说出这些话，对吸引L2项目来说不是一个好的商业立场，因为我们正努力吸引L2，希望给予它们以太坊社区的善意。
Some people read it this way, that it's just, like, not a good commercial stance for Ethereum to say these things because at a time when we're trying to attract l twos, we wanna give them the good graces of Ethereum.
我们想说：你们很好，没问题，欢迎加入社区，而不是因为你们不够‘纯粹’就将它们推开。
We wanna say you're good and you're okay and like welcome to the community rather than kind of like push them away for not being quote unquote pure enough.
我不认为这是对Vitalik推文的合理解读。
I don't think that's a valid conclusion of Vitalik's tweet.
Twitter上有很多对Vitalik推文的误读。
There was a lot of bad readings of Vitalik's tweet on Twitter.
我认为任何说以太坊正在抛弃其L2的人，都根本没正确理解那条推文。
And I consider anyone who is like, oh, Ethereum is abandoning its l twos just did not read the tweet correctly.
好的。
Okay.
那我们来聊聊一些其他观点吧。
Well, let's get to some more takes here.
这是来自Polygon的一条。
This is one from Polychain.
这是什么？
What is this?
抱歉，是Polygon。
Oh, excuse me, Polygon.
Polygon。
Polygon.
它只是转推了斜体字的推文，然后说由于市场状况，现在自称为侧链，这其实是一种带有讽刺意味的承认，即Polygon本质上就是一个侧链。
It was it just retweeted out the retweet of italic, and they just said, due to market conditions, now identify as a side chain, which is like a facetious admission of kind of like what poly Polygon is a side chain.
最后
And finally
这完全可以直白地谈。
That's can talk totally plainly about that.
我认为这条推文的一个好处是，人们终于开始撕下这种关于二层路线图的愿景假象，转而直白地谈论它实际是什么。
I think that's one of the benefits of this tweet is like people are finally just like ripping off this aspirational ideal for what the layer two roadmap could be, and now just speaking plainly about what it actually is.
这让人耳目一新。
That's refreshing.
对我来说，这真的很让人耳目一新。
It's refreshing to me.
这很有趣，因为Polygon在某些方面确实是盟友。
It is funny because Polygon is an ally for certain.
当然。
For For sure.
他们在投资、心智份额以及上一轮周期的用户导入方面，为以太坊做了很多。
They did so much for Ethereum in terms of investment, in terms of just like mindshare, in terms of onboarding during previous cycles.
他们为以太坊做了这么多，但他们并不属于二层的联盟。
They've they've done so much for Ethereum, but they're not kind of in the alliance of l twos.
对吧？
Right?
因为他们说的没错。
Because they are Right.
这在某种程度上证明了
Somewhat of a proof of the
侧链。
side chain.
是的。
Yeah.
所以他们不属于北约，但仍然是以太坊的盟友。
So they're not a part of NATO, but they're still an Ethereum ally.
再次，能够重新定义这些术语，并让它们说出来，这很好。
Again, it's nice to be able to just redefine these terms and and for them to be able to say it.
约翰·夏尔博诺，你之前说过别拿送信人开刀。
John Charbonneau, again, you said don't shoot the messenger.
他只是还好吗？
Is he just Okay.
这是一条我非常喜欢的推文。
This is a tweet that I've really, really enjoyed.
好的。
Okay.
我发现，早在2021年和2022年，就有人提出了维塔利克在2026年这条推文中所陈述的完全相同的问题。
There I'll find are there were people stating this exact problem that Vitalik eventually stated in this tweet in 2026 in 2021 and 2022.
因此，行业中的部分不满在于，那些识别出以太坊这个问题并大声表达的人，最初是以一种让以太坊社区非常反感的方式出现的，后来才逐渐转变为更易被社区接受的人物。
So the part of the industry, part of the frustration here is that different people who have identified this problem in Ethereum and then got loud about it started in an order that was like, very unpalatable and offensive to the Ethereum community and has slowly worked its way to inside the community of more palatable people.
是的。
Yeah.
最终，这个问题的讨论一直传到了维塔利克那里。
And eventually, it gets all the way to Vitalik.
所以，当然，从凯尔·萨马尼开始，他最早识别出这个问题，并因认为以太坊策略存在市场弱点而大力投资于Solana。
So sure, starting with Kyle Samani, who identified this problem and then invested heavily in Solana because of what he identified as a a market weakness in the Ethereum strategy.
凯尔，是以太坊社区眼中的头号敌人。
It's Kyle, like enemy of the state number one to the Ethereum community.
接下来是马克斯·雷斯尼克，一个非常令人反感的人，他简直从不给自己留任何余地。
The next person after that, Max Max Resnick, very offensive individual kind of just like, didn't he Max doesn't do himself any favors.
同样的话也适用于Solana。
Also said the same thing goes to Solana.
约翰·夏尔博诺，虽然更接近以太坊社区，但仍让许多人感到冒犯。
John Charbonneau, like, closer to, you know, the Ethereum community still offensive to many.
然后，甚至在约翰之后，还有像我们这样的机构，比如Bankless。
And then like, I'll even throw then after John comes somebody like like us like bankless.
我们现在是2020年。
We're in 2020.
我确实认为。
Definitely think that
所以是2024年。
so 2024.
我们当时说：嘿，朋友们，我不确定这对我们来说是否行得通，
We were like, hey, guys, I don't know if this is working out for us,
实际上，好吧。
Actually, okay.
所以问题是这样。
So here's the thing.
我觉得Kyle，嗯。
I think that Kyle Mhmm.
显然，Solana团队，当然了。
Obviously, team Solana, obviously For sure.
总是把以太坊描绘成最糟糕的样子，说它没有任何应用场景之类的。
Like, always paints Ethereum in the worst possible light, and that there's no use case and all these things.
像Max这样的人，从他转投Solana这一点就能看出来，他并不站在支持以太坊、希望它成功的阵营里。
Like, Max, at some level, mean, as evidenced by him defecting to Solana too, is not sort of t not in the camp of rooting for Ethereum and hoping for its best.
John是个投资者，因此他对这件事的看法更务实一些，但他并不真正相信ETH是一种价值存储资产，也无法与比特币竞争。
John is someone who is an investor, so he's somewhat more pragmatic about it, but doesn't actually believe that ETH is a store of value asset and can compete against Bitcoin.
但我们确实如此。
Bankless, we however do.
我们长期以来一直是以太坊阵营的支持者。
Are, like, have been Team Ethereum for a very long time.
即使市场告诉我们并非如此，我们仍然相信以太坊是一种价值存储资产，并且在与比特币竞争这一方面拥有最大的机会。
Do still believe, you know, even though the market's telling us otherwise, that ETH is a store of value asset and has the biggest opportunity to compete against Bitcoin on that.
即使我们当时这么说，那也几乎是我们的续集了。
Even when we were saying it, it kind of Dude, was our sequel.
我们被贴上了标签——当然不是每个人，但我们被称作以太坊的敌人。
We got brand like, not everyone, obviously, But we got branded we got called enemies of Ethereum.
是的。
Yes.
在2024年，当我们邀请马克斯、约翰和凯尔·西马尼来讨论这个问题时，我就因为说‘这个路线图对我们来说行不通’而被银行家们视为以太坊的敌人。
During the years of 2024, when we brought Max and John on the podcast and Kyle Simani to talk about this problem, and then I got bankless as an enemy of Ethereum because we were saying, guys, this road map ain't working for us.
是的。
Yeah.
我们来谈谈哪些部分行不通。
Let's talk about what parts aren't working.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Right.
在我们之后，也许会是安东尼·西扎诺。
And and then and then after after us, you know, maybe it'd be Anthony Sizano.
我认为他其实从未真正这样做过，但接着就轮到维塔利克了。
I don't think he really ever did that, but then it goes to Vitalik.
现在维塔利克终于说了，这下对以太坊社区来说总算能接受了，这让我很沮丧，因为他们之前明明就明白，我肯定也有其他听Bankless的人在想：你们怎么这么天真？
Now now now that Vitalik is saying it, like, it's finally palatable for the Ethereum community, which I find frustrating because they were and I'm sure there were other people listening to bank lists who are like, guys, why are you so naive about this?
凯尔·西蒙、马克斯ine·雷斯尼克和约翰·夏博诺早就弄清楚了。
Kyle Simone, Maxine Resnick, and John Charbonneau have figured this out years ago.
你们怎么这么慢？
Why are you guys taking so long?
事情就是这样发生的。
That's just how things happen.
我的意思是，意见就是这样改变的。
Mean, I think that's how opinions change.
事情就是这样发展的。
That's how it happens.
对吧？
Right?
想象一下，如果你听从凯尔·西曼尼关于你的所有建议，干脆就把项目关了。
Imagine listening to Kyle Simani about everything on you just shut the project down.
你会相信去中心化并不重要。
You'd believe that decentralization doesn't matter.
你会相信根本不存在什么货币资产。
You'd believe there's no such thing as eat this a monetary asset.
既然你听了他所有的话，为什么不干脆把项目关了呢？
Just why not shut it down if you listen to everything that guy says.
好吧？
Okay?
所以你必须
So you have to
处理它并过滤它，但这件事花了一段时间才发生。
process it and you have to filter it, but it did take a while for that to happen.
这里还有帕特里克·麦科里提出的另一种观点。
There's another take here you've got from Patrick McCorry.
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
我很喜欢这个。
I enjoyed this.
我今天早上读了这个。
I read this this morning.
他说，他对Vitalik所说内容的理解是，rollups并没有失败。
He says that his his interpretation of what Vitalik is saying is is that it's not that roll ups have failed.
事实上，情况恰恰相反。
In fact, it's the opposite.
rollups已经与以太坊区分开来，并取得了巨大成功。
Roll ups have differentiated themselves relative to Ethereum and have succeeded hugely.
但这并不是最初愿景中所预期的。
But this is just not what was anticipated in the original vision.
所以，是的，这是一个非常重要的观点：rollups表现得非常好。
So yeah, it's a very big point is like roll ups are doing great.
它们实际上在做自己的事情，而不是
They are actually doing their own thing, and it's not
以太坊的事情。
the Ethereum thing.
它们确实在做。
They are.
它们确实是。
They are.
而且你甚至可以看到，rollups 现在正在为以太坊扩容。
And you even see and I mean, roll ups are scaling Ethereum, like, right now.
确实如此。
Even Yeah.
比如，它们是最接近一层的 EVM 实现，它们就在那里。
Like, they even sort of the the closest EVM match to l one, they are there.
以太坊现在是什么？
Ethereum is what?
每秒 40 笔交易？
40 transactions per second now?
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
Base 现在已经能达到 800 了，你知道的。
Base is, you know, pushing 800?
是的。
Yeah.
差不多吧。
Something like that.
Arbitrum 大概有一千笔左右。
Arbitrum is a bit, like, a thousand.
嗯。
Mhmm.
对吧？
Right?
而且它们也在扩展。
And they're scaling too.
我的意思是，这很有帮助。
I mean, that is helpful.
然后你说得对。
And then you're right.
我们已经因为市场力量而出现了这些不同的L2。
We already do have these differentiated l twos that have popped up due just due to market forces.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我最喜欢的最后一个观点来自我的朋友约翰·斯特拉奇。
And then the last take that I like, came from my friend John Sterlachy.
我觉得你正在看Foundation。
Do you you I think you are watching Foundation.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Yes.
你的
Your
《基地》电视剧？
Foundation TV show?
是的。
Yes.
对。
Yeah.
这原本是一套小说系列，主要以小说闻名，但现在也改编成了电视剧。
Also a book series, mainly known as as a book series, but now now a TV show.
艾萨克·阿西莫夫。
Isaac Asimov.
艾萨克·阿西莫夫。
Isaac Asimov.
是的。
Yeah.
所以这需要你稍微理解一下背景，我会尽力解释清楚。
So like this requires to under understand this a little bit, but I'll do my best to explain.
他说，哈里·谢顿的领导方式行不通。
He goes, the Harry Seldon approach to leadership doesn't work.
好的。
Okay.
哈里·谢顿在这一剧集中的领导方式具体是指什么？
What's what's the Harry Seldon approach to leadership in in this movie series TV series?
它涵盖了
It spans over It's
冷门知识点。
deep cut.
这真是个非常冷门的知识点。
It's a very deep cut.
它跨越了大约一千年。
It spans over like a thousand years.
因此，人们进入类似休眠的状态，延长寿命，以便在漫长的时间跨度中完成这种跨星系的宏大协调任务。
And so the people go into like cyber sleep and they extend their lifespan in order to do this intergalactic huge coordination problem across vast amounts of time.
哈里·谢顿是这个人，他提出了一个为期下一千年的计划，旨在解决我们未来需要准备的、跨越千年、多个世代的协调难题。
And Harry Seldon is this guy who comes up with this plan for the next thousand years of how we come to like coordinate across this very future problem that we need to, like, prepare for that's a thousand years, multiple generations in the future.
因此，这里的观点是：由单一天才或小部分精英进行集中式、预测性、长期的总体规划，在实践中会失败，因为现实世界建立在混乱的人类系统之上。
So the idea here is centralized predictive long term master planning by a single genius or small elite fails in practice because the real world is based on messy human systems.
你无法制定一个宏大的计划，然后期望它通过预设的干预措施完美展开。
You can't set a grand plan in motion and expect it to unfold perfectly via predetermined interventions.
真正的领导力必须是灵活的、响应迅速的、去中心化的，并能应对混乱和个体主动性。
Real leadership needs to be adapted, responsive, and decentralized and account for chaos, individual initiative.
黑天鹅事件是不可预测的行动者，而不是那种假设人们会像可预测的粒子一样行为的僵化自上而下的协调。
Black swans are unpredictable actors, not rigid top down orchestration assuming people will behave by predict like predictable particles.
过度依赖必然的发展轨迹或‘这个计划会拯救我们’的信念，会导致脆弱性、脱离现实，或在异常出现时失败。
Over reliance on inevitable trajectories or this plan will save us leads to brittleness, detachment from reality, or failure when anomalies appear.
我认为，这非常敏锐地对比了第二层路线图是如何被实施以及为何失败的。
I think this is such an astute comparison as to how and how the layer two roadmap got implemented and why it failed.
实际上，我认为这正是正在发生的事情。
I actually think that that's exactly what's happening though.
对吧？
Right?
这既是自上而下又是自下而上地发现从市场角度看这种方法行不通，于是进行了调整。
It this is this is this is like top down and bottom up discovering that this didn't work from a market perspective and adjusting.
所以这就像没有犯哈里·谢顿的错误。
So this is just like not making the Harry Seldon mistake.
哈里·谢顿的错误就是
The Harry Seldon mistake would be
到了2026年，我们正在学习避免哈里·谢顿的错误，但我觉得过去五年里，我们确实犯了这个错误。
Now in 2026, we are not we are learning to not the Harry Seldon mistake, but I think for the last five years of time, it has been that.
有一点，但根据这次转向来看，一切都还好。
A little bit, but as evidenced by this pivot, it's all fine.
事情就是这么发展的。
This is how it works out.
我们去尝试了，虽然比应该的晚了一些，但还不算太晚。
We went and we tried It's It's later than it needed to be, but it's not too late.
我们会谈谈对这个问题的看法。
We'll get to some takes on this.
让我问你几个问题，做个引导。
Let let me ask you some questions just to prompt.
给你三个选项。
Three options for you.
以整合为中心的路线图是错的吗？
Was the roll up centric roadmap wrong?
还记得模块化与单体架构的区别，对吧？
The whole idea of remember modular versus monolithic, right?
有的团队选择模块化路径，而其他团队则走单体架构路线。
And theorems going modular paths, and, you know, other chains going the monolithic plan.
我给你三个选项。
Let me give you three options.
第一，它完全错了。
One, it was dead wrong.
二，它部分是错误的。
Two, it was partially wrong.
三，但在当时这仍然是正确的选择。
Three, it was still the right play at the time.
你怎么看？
What do you think?
我觉得介于部分错误和当时正确的选择之间，但更偏向于部分错误。
Somewhere between partially wrong and still the right play at the right time at leaning towards more partially wrong.
更正确的做法应该是识别出合并路线图，永远不要使用‘中心化’这个词，而是强调以太坊生态系统在智能合约链上拥有垄断地位。
The more correct thing would have been to identify the roll up roadmap, not ever say the word centric, and run with we we the Ethereum ecosystem has a monopoly on smart contract chains.
没错。
Sure.
我们必须确保绝不能放弃这一点。
And we need to make sure we never give that up.
现在所有人都在以太坊一层上，我们需要尽可能迅速地扩展一层，同时绝不牺牲以太坊的价值。
And now that everyone is on the Ethereum layer one, we need to aggressively scale the layer one as fast as reasonably possible without without sacrificing Ethereum's values.
同时，因为我们喜欢并行做事，我们也会并行开发rollup路线图，并且不会使用‘centric’这个词，我们会把‘centric’这个词保留给以太坊一层，那样才会更准确。
And in parallel, because we love doing things in parallel, we will also develop the roll up roadmap in parallel, and it will not have the word centric in it, we will keep and point the word centric at the Ethereum layer one, that would have
这是我后来想明白的，我们得弄清楚这一点。
been the best I figured out, we gotta figure out.
但我觉得我可能更偏向第三点，因为在当时那仍然是正确的选择。
But here's why I'm probably more three, it was still the right play at the time.
但另一方面，第二点是因为我们本可以更早调整，因为事后诸葛亮总是很清晰，老兄。
But also part two, because we could have adjusted sooner is because hindsight is twenty twenty, man.
我们当时完全不知道这会如何发展。
We had no idea how this was going to work out.
就像，六年后的现在，我们居然还摆出一副‘早该料到’的嘴脸，真是够讽刺的。
Like, it's really rich of us, like, six years later to be like, twenty twenty idiots.
你们早该预见这一点的。
You should have seen this coming.
问题是，确实有人预见到了。
The thing is, like, some people did.
有些人确实看到了
Some people did see
它来临。
it come.
更早的时候，但不是在2020年。
Earlier, but not in 2020.
让我再和你一起做一个思想实验，我整理了这些内容。
Let let me go through another thought exercise with you, which is I put this together.
我们当时以为的 versus 我们实际得到的，看看你同意多少。
What we thought versus what we got, and see how much you agree.
我们当时以为的是，这是2020年的想法，对吧，认为L2会完全解决以太坊的区块空间扩展问题，扩展性就会被解决。
What we thought this is back in 2020, the thought, right, is that l twos would fully scale Ethereum block space and scaling would be solved.
但我们实际得到的却是流动性碎片化，L2上没有以太坊级别的安全性，以及一种类似‘侧链加’的概念，这其实就是L2最终变成的样子。
What we got instead was fragmented liquidity, not Ethereum level security on our l twos, and this idea of, like, side chain plus, which is kind of what l twos ended up being.
没错。
That's right.
这是另一个。
Here's here's another one.
想法。
Thought.
我们以为L2会催生应用程序中的新用例，但实际得到的却是L2上大量与L1相似的DeFi应用。
What we thought, l twos would unleash new use cases in apps, but what we got is mostly a lot of DeFi on l twos that was similar to the l one.
是的。
Yep.
我们以为第二阶段会轻而易举。
What we thought was stage two would be a breeze.
我们终会到达的。
We'll get there.
这没什么问题。
It's no problem.
我们实际得到的却极其困难。
What we got is is really, really freaking hard.
是的。
Yeah.
链和用户真的想要它吗？
And do chains and users even want it?
我不确定我是否想要
I'm not sure that I want
我认为一个我们无法知晓的链是没有意义的。
a I think chain we that can't know we do not.
如果出现漏洞，无法被修复或更新。
That can't be corrected or updated if there's a bug.
我们原本以为，二层网络会为ETH这一资产带来价值积累，无论是作为货币。
What we thought, l twos would bring value accrual to ETH the asset, either as money.
ETH是货币，人们在生态系统中使用它，或者产生手续费。
ETH is money, people using it in the ecosystem, or fees.
而我们实际得到的是二层网络产生的低手续费，以及其他资产开始渗透到这些二层网络中。
What we got instead was low fees generated by l twos, and also other assets started invading some of these L twos.
对吧？
Right?
代币化的比特币已经存在了。
Tokenized Bitcoin is a thing.
稳定币已经很重要了，所以我们根本没实现货币价值的累积。
Stablecoins are a big So we didn't even get the money monetary value accrual.
我们原本以为以太坊在这个周期会涨到1万美元，结果却只是勉强创了新高， barely。
What we thought is ETH would go to 10 k this cycle, and what we got was barely an all time high, barely.
我们看到ETH与比特币的比率在下跌。
We got bleeding on the ETH Bitcoin ratio.
在某种程度上，以太坊在这个周期被应用链击败了。
We were beaten at some level, Ethereum was beaten this cycle by app chains.
特别是那种纯粹的价值存储型应用链，也就是比特币。
In particular, a pure store of value app chain, which is called Bitcoin.
比特币。
Bitcoin.
你对这些怎么看？
What do think of those?
你同意吗？
You agree
这些都没问题。
with Those are all right.
我同意所有这些观点。
I agree with all of those.
好的。
Alright.
让我们谈谈各自的看法和回顾一下。
Let's give our takes and a retrospective.
你先来吗？
You wanna go first?
好的。
Okay.
好吧。
Wanna okay.
让我讲讲。
Indulge me.
哦，我很乐意先说。
Oh, I'm I'm happy to go first.
我有一些想法想说。
I've I've got some stuff I would like
我得赶紧走，所以我们得控制时间。
I to get off my gotta jump soon, so we gotta constrain our time.
我们大概只有十五分钟。
We probably have, like, fifteen minutes.
我会宏观看一下，谈谈我对这次回顾的看法。
I'm gonna zoom out and give you my take on the retrospective.
好的。
Okay.
所以，好吧。
So Okay.
在过去的五年里，L2 确实取得了一些显著成就，我不愿淡化这些成果。
There were definitely some wins over the last five years in L Twos, and I don't wanna downplay that.
巨大的成功。
Massive wins.
我们建立了成功的链间联盟。
We had this successful alliance of chains.
我们交付了 ZK EVM 技术，发现了 ZK，并充分拓展了这项技术体系。
We delivered ZK EVM tech, discovered ZK, flushed that tech tree out.
这简直太棒了。
It's freaking awesome.
这些成果正在回馈到 L1。
That's coming back to the l one.
如果没有 L2 的路线图，我们就不可能取得这些成就。
Without the L 2 road map, we wouldn't have had that.
我们在Base和ArbTrump上实现了大规模的用户接入。
We had massive user onboarding on Base and ArbTrump.
这全是EVM的网络效应。
It's all EVM network effect.
一切都很好。
It's all good.
而且，我想说，如果在2022年你想扩展以太坊并同时保持去中心化的承诺——即比特币级别的去中心化或更好——这可能是当时唯一的选择。
And plus, I would say, this might have been the only option at the time in 2022 if you're going to scale Ethereum and also keep the decentralized promise, and the decentralized promise is Bitcoin level decentralization or better.
这在2020年是唯一的选择。
That was the only option in in 2020.
明白吗？
Okay?
因此，我们在这整个过程中保留了这一点。
So we preserved that through all of this.
这算是一个成就。
That's in the win column.
我认为有三个失误，其中第一个我们本最容易发现并避免的。
There were three missteps, I think, that maybe the first one we could have seen the most and prevented.
第一个是我们错过了与Altus的互操作策略。
The first was we missed an interop strategy with Altus.
确实如此。
For sure.
那是最大的疏漏。
That was the biggest miss.
如果我们当时在做LT路线图，完全可以做到这一点。
If we were doing the LT roadmap, we totally could have done this.
以太坊也完全可以做到这一点。
Ethereum totally could have done this.
它本可以优先考虑共享流动性，而你并不是一个L2。
It could have prioritized shared liquidity, and you're not an an l two.
除非我们在这里建立一个流动性标准，并从以太坊共享到L2，否则你并没有连接到以太坊网络。
You're not connected to the Ethereum network unless we have a liquidity standard here, and it's shared from Ethereum to the l twos.
现在我不清楚技术上具体该如何实现，但至少应该为此建立一个标准。
Now I don't know the technical, like, how how this could have been made possible, but there should have been at least a standard for this.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
Atom，或者抱歉，Cosmos生态系统，他们有一个标准。
Atom, like or sorry, the Cosmos ecosystem, they had a standard.
他们有一个，像是ICP，是的。
They had a, like, ICP Yeah.
嗯哼。
Mhmm.
我们本可以在这里做得更多，但我们没有。
We could have done something much more here, and we didn't.
所以我们没有将以太坊强大的DeFi流动性网络效应传递给L2，结果演变成了一场零和博弈，L2之间根本没有共享流动性，彼此竞争，感觉更像是一堆侧链，而不是真正的联盟。
So we didn't transmit Ethereum's killer DeFi liquidity network effect to l twos, and it became this war of all against all where the l twos didn't really share liquidity, and so they're all competing each other with each other, and it felt more like a bunch of side chains rather than a true alliance.
第二个错误，这是第一个失误。
Number two, that was the first mistake.
第二个错误是我们花了太长时间才弄清楚这一点。
Number two, it took us too long to figure this out.
我们本可以提前大约二十四个月做出调整。
We could have course corrected probably twenty four months sooner.
是的。
Yeah.
我觉得。
I feel like.
对。
Yeah.
但我们没有。
And we didn't.
我们本可以意识到，那种作为协调纽带的东西根本不存在，而它本应促成以太坊统一链网络的愿景。
We could have realized that the coordination glue just like wasn't there to make a tight united chains of Ethereum, which was the vision.
我们拥有的是一个更分散、更松散的联盟，本可以务实调整策略，但如今我们仍过于充满不切实际的乐观。
We we had this more fragmented loose alliance, and then we could have pragment pragmatically adjusted the strategy, but instead, we're still too hopium filled.
我们更多地依赖于可能自行解决。
We relied more out to probably work out.
那只是希望。
There's it was hope.
最后一点，我也得说一下，我觉得我们在用例上失去了一些专注。
The last thing, I gotta say this too, I feel like we lost some focus on the use case.
关于最大去中心化区块空间的核心用例，我们已经看到了。
The core use case for max decentralized block space, we've seen this.
在加密货币领域，已经过去足够长的时间了。
It's been enough time in crypto.
我们已经看到了。
We've seen this.
这是缓慢的去中心化金融。
It's slow DeFi.
这是货币。
It's money.
它是以太坊的价值储存功能。
It's ETH as a store of value.
这是以太坊最重要的一项应用。
That is the single most important app for Ethereum.
而我们追逐了所有这些次要叙事。
And we chased all these secondary narratives.
对吧？
Right?
你知道的，社交以及其他由L2支持的种种功能，我们却忘记了核心叙事。
You know, social and all of these other things that could be enabled by l twos, and we forgot the core narrative.
我们没有把它作为以太坊的焦点。
We didn't make that a shelling point for Ethereum.
嘿，开发者们。
Hey, builders.
我们在以太坊上拥有了价值储存。
We have a store of value on ETH.
我们有DeFi。
We have DeFi.
我们有深厚的流动性。
We have deep liquidity.
来这儿构建你的金融产品吧。
Come build your money thing here.
我觉得领导层本可以更积极推动这一点。
I feel like leadership could have pushed that a little bit more.
情况并没有感觉的那么糟。
It is not as bad as it feels.
我认为这些错误以及我们目前的感受，可能源于价格，而价格是一个滞后指标。
I think these mistakes and the feeling that we have right now, probably due to price, it's a lagging indicator.
所以十二个月前，趋势就开始修正，转型实际上也已开始。
So twelve months ago, the course started to correct and the pivot started to happen actually.
因此，我们并不是现在才突然意识到这一点。
And so we're not now just waking up and realize this.
已经采取措施进行修正。
Things have already been put in motion to course correct.
我们还有零知识证明，这是上天的馈赠。
We also have ZK, which is a gift from the gods.
它是以太坊的UNO牌。
It is Ethereum's UNO card.
我认为它将彻底纠正所有错误。
I think it's gonna totally nail out any mistakes.
是的。
Yes.
是的，
Yes,
我完全同意这一点。
I totally agree with that.
我认为现在的反弹太过激烈了。
And I do think the backlash is too like, the backlash is too lashy right now.
换句话说，关于L2已死的传言被严重夸大了。
In other words, like, the reports of l twos demise are greatly exaggerated.
好的。
Okay.
于是，现在出现了一种反向趋势，人们开始认为L2其实没什么用。
And so there's this counter swing of the pendulum being like, okay, well, I guess l twos are are useless.
它们并不是没用的。
They're not useless.
这些成功确实是实实在在的，对于那些希望拥有自身主权的公司、链，以及一些AppChain类型的用例而言。
The wins are actual wins for for for corporate, for chains that want their own sovereignty, for some of these AppChain type use cases.
总的来说，L2对以太坊是有益的。
Net net, l twos are good for Ethereum.
它们一直以来都对以太坊有益。
They have been good for Ethereum.
我们已经将大量以太坊开发工作分配给了资金充足且能力卓越的团队。
We've distributed a whole bunch of the Ethereum development to well funded, highly competent teams.
这同样是一个巨大的胜利。
That's a massive win, as well.
而且这是一个核心优势。
And it's a core advantage.
没有人会在其他链上构建二层网络。
No one else is building l twos on any other chain.
它们都建立在以太坊上。
They're all on Ethereum.
这种部分的支线任务将是以太坊带来的一大胜利。
And that this partial side quest is a huge win that Ethereum will bring forward.
好吧。
Alright.
这就是我的牢骚。
That's my rant.
这就是我的观点。
That's my take.
就这样了。
That's all.
我同意所有这些观点。
I agree with all
那些。
of those.
我的一些观点和你的重叠了。
Some some of mine overlap with yours.
那我先说我的。
So I'll start with mine.
我这边有好的一面，也有不好的一面。
I have I have the good and the bad side for mine.
好的方面是ZKVM预编译。
The good is the ZKVM precompile.
这需要成为以太坊的合并或4844 Danksharding级别的关键升级。
That needs to be Ethereum's like merge or four eight four four dank sharding.
我们需要提升即将来临的ZKVM硬分叉的重要性，将ZKVM扩展与以太坊扩展提升到当前速度的千倍，作为我们的新目标。
Like, we need to elevate the importance of the ZKVM hard fork that's going to come where we put ZKVM scale and Ethereum scales at a thousand x's current speed as our new north star.
以太坊社区需要像当初支持原生Rollups那样，团结起来支持这一目标。
Like, the Ethereum community needs to rally around that like we once did the native roll ups.
对吧？
Right?
这就是原生Rollups。
This is native roll ups.
是的。
Yes.
以太坊一层将变成ZKVM，它将变得如此快速和可扩展，以至于一旦我们部署成功，其他任何一层链都不可能再超越，因为以太坊一层将变得无比高效。
The Ethereum layer one is going to become a ZKVM and it's going to be so fast and so scaled that it's it's the Manhattan project that once we deploy this, like no other layer one will ever come after that fact because the Ethereum layer one will be so scaled.
因此，我认为作为社区，我们需要提升对这一重点的关注。
And so I think we need to, as a community, elevate that Focus.
这种优势。
That strength.
是的。
Yes.
专注于它并尽快部署。
Focus on it and and and deploy it.
这很好，我认为维塔利克的推文里对此强调得不够。
That's that's the good and I think that was understated in Vitalik's tweet.
另一件好事是，二层的商业模式至今未被击败。
The other the other good thing is that the layer two business model is undefeated.
尽管这条推文谈的是别的，但我们正在把中心化从以太坊转移开。
None nonetheless, despite whatever this tweet is about we are taking the centric away from Ethereum.
二层仍然是加密货币中最好的商业模式。
Layer twos are still the best business model in crypto.
你不需要支付运行链所需的昂贵基础设施费用。
You don't need to pay for the infrastructure, the very costly infrastructure to run your chain.
你也不需要发行代币来支付验证者。
You don't need to issue your assets to pay for validators.
在Vitalik发推文后的第二天，那个基于Celestia的应用链会迁移成为以太坊的一个滚动链。
The day after Vitalik's tweet pay, which is a Celestia based app chain, becomes an Ethereum migrates to becoming an Ethereum roll up.
这个商业模式将依然是不可战胜的。
The business model will will be undefeated.
这就是为什么很多Layer 2项目，比如有人担心Base会不会变成Layer 1？
This is why a lot of the layer twos, like, some people might be worried about, like, is base going to become a layer one?
Arbitrum会不会变成Layer 1？
Is, like, Arbitrum going to be a layer one?
不会。
No.
他们不想承担基础设施的成本。
They don't want to pay for the infrastructure cost.
Layer 2的商业模式依然和以往一样出色。
The bit layer two business model is still as good as it ever was.
我特别喜欢的另一点是，Layer 2意味着以太坊已经死亡。
And the other good thing that I really like is that layer twos are Ethereum is dead.
我们根本不需要提及这件事。
We don't have to ever mention about that.
我们可以把它掩盖起来，假装我们
We can sweep that in the rug and pretend that we're
已经脱身了。
out of it.
糟糕的是。
The bad.
是的。
Yeah.
浪费了时间和精力。
Wasted time and lost effort.
这是我主要的不满。
This is my main gripe.
很多人回应说，这一点早就显而易见了。
Like, so many people have been, like, a response to this is this has just been obvious for so long.
比如，玛丽发推说，这一点早就显而易见了。
Like, Mary tweeted out, this has been obvious for years.
克劳德也发了推文，我觉得他说的跟我对Vitalik二层方案那些花招的不满是一致的：过去三年里，我们整个行业的数千亿美元流动性都被投入到了这些二层方案中，而链上DeFi却因此陷入困境，正如Vitalik所称的‘奥罗波罗斯’。
Clouded tweeted out something that I thought was was I aligned with the annoying part about the Vitalik layer two shenanigans for me is like, thanks for having hundreds of billions of dollars of our industry's liquidity going into funding these layer twos over the past three years while on chain DeFi choked as Vitalik called it Ouroboros.
约瑟夫·德朗格说得更尖锐了，他说以太坊简直就像Vitalik的一个小型Erbit式副项目，徒劳地建造一座空庙。
And then Joseph DeLong got even spicier and said, Ethereum kind of feels like Vitalik's little Erbit esque side project building a temple to nothing.
这正是我现在的感受。
And this is kinda how I feel.
存在太多资本管理不善和资源配置不当的问题。
There are like, there was a too large amount of capital mismanagement and poor capital allocation.
而我们没有及时做出调整。
And we didn't course correct in time.
很多事我也不太清楚，老兄。
And a lot I don't know, dude.
许多人倾注了毕生精力去建设这个由Vitalik领导的ACRM社区所构想的未来。
A lot of people's lives went into building this future that the ACRM community led by Vitalik identified.
当然，如果我们错了但及时纠正了，这还能理解；不可原谅的是，这么多人早就看出了问题，资本却依然被滥用。
And sure, like if we got it wrong and course corrected in time, like excusable, What's not excusable is that like, so many people identified this and like, nonetheless, capital continue to be mismanaged.
人们继续投入一生去实现这个愿景，而这个愿景早已被行业中的许多人视为过时。
Like people continue to spend their their lives working towards this vision that like much of the industry had identified as obsolete.
这就是Vitalik在做的事。
And this is what Vitalik does.
他总是要等到100%确定了才行动。
He like waits until he's like a 100% sure.
在时机把握上存在根本性的脱节：Vitalik乐于极度耐心，确保以太坊最终能到达正确的位置。
And like there's this fundamental disconnect in timing where Vitalik is like happy being overly patient to make sure that Ethereum eventually gets to the right spot.
但他并没有行业其他人希望他扮演的角色——那种愿意积极进取、敢于冒险的CEO式领导者。
And he doesn't have the position that the rest of the industry wants him to be in, which is some sort of like, CEO executional leader who's ready to be aggressive and take risks.
你我这样的人都感受到一种紧迫感的错位，因为我们有竞争对手。
And there's just like a a mismatch of of urgency that people like you and me is like, we have competition.
外面确实有竞争对手。
Like, there's competition out there.
Solana正在与我们竞争。
Solana is competing with us.
他们正在利用我们的弱点。
They're taking advantage of our weaknesses.
而大多数人的时间节奏就是这样，但Metallic却说：我要等到99.9%确定这是对的之后才发推，这浪费了金钱和时间，效率太低，结果我们的社区也因此受损。
And that's the that is the time cadence that most people are on and Metallic is like, I'll wait until I'm 99.9% sure that this is the right thing before I tweet this and it wastes money and time and it's it's so inefficient and and we as a community get hurt as a result of that.
我觉得，如果他能处于一个更具执行力的位置，建立更强的反馈机制，能够更积极地推进进展，大家都会感激的。
And like I think everyone would appreciate it if he was in a little bit more of an executional position that had a stronger feedback loop of signal where he could actually push forward on the gas a little bit more aggressively.
我觉得提出这样的要求并不过分。
And I don't think that's that crazy to ask for.
既然你已经说出来了，David，你现在还好吗？
Well, now that you got that out, you doing okay, David?
不好。
No.
你没事吧？
You okay?
我觉得刚才那番话是在发泄情绪。
I feel like that was some venting.
是的。
Yeah.
老兄。
Dude.
这是社区在发泄情绪。
This is the community venting.
对。
Yes.
对。
Yes.
嗯，那还行。
Like, it was Okay.
我明白这一点，同时我也认为你指出的弱点和权衡本质上是一种幻灭，你看到有些人开始离开。
So I I get that, and I also think that the, you know, the the weakness and the trade off that you're pointing out is basically disillusionment, and you see people that kind of loot, like, leave.
你会遇到像约瑟夫·佩恩这样的人说这种话。
You get people like Joseph paint, like, saying this.
我加入以太坊是为了取代银行，而不是这种像是什么旁支项目的东西，我都不知道它到底是什么。
I I joined Ethereum to displace the banks, not this kind of, like, side project thing that just, like, I don't know what it is.
维塔利克那种风格，我认为也是一种巨大的优势。
That same style that Vitalik has, I also think is a massive strength.
当然。
Sure.
当然。
Sure.
这是因为达成共识太慢了。
It's like because it's just like slow to consensus.
这有点像慢速的去中心化金融。
It's kind of like slow DeFi.
对吧？
Right?
所以你最终会朝着正确的方向前进。
So you end up getting in the right direction.
而且，对于Vitalik来说，以太坊保留了它最初要保护的东西，即最大程度的去中心化。
And also the trade off for, like, Vitalic is Ethereum has preserved the thing that it set out to preserve, which is max decentralization.
是的。
Yeah.
明白吗？
Okay?
所以Vitalik不愿意牺牲这一点，我认为他作为一个有原则的领导者做到了这一点。
And so Vitalik is not willing to sacrifice that, and he's done so, I think, as a leader with integrity.
我不希望他成为以太坊的首席执行官。
I don't want him to be the CEO of Ethereum.
我喜欢他现在所处的位置，那就是提供精神指引，是的。
Like, I like him in the in the in the place that he is, which is he has spiritual guidance Yeah.
还有某种社会层面的指导，告诉我们该怎么做，而且他愿意调整方向。
And sort of social, like, here's what we should do, and he's willing to course correct.
我不知道。
I don't know.
这中间有一个权衡。
It There's a trade off
就以以太坊CEO这个位置而言，他不允许任何人通过仅仅当批评者就占据它。
just the what I'm space of the CEO of Ethereum, and he doesn't allow anyone else to inhabit it just by being the critic.
我理解这个挑战。
I get the I get the challenge.
对吧？
Right?
那篇著名文章叫什么来着？
It's sort of the what's that that famous essay?
无结构的暴政。
The the tyranny of Structurelessness.
无结构。
Structurelessness.
这是维塔利克的模式，他领导时会留下权力真空。
This is Vitalik's pattern, that he leads he leaves voids of power.
无论他走到哪里，都会留下权力真空，
Leaves power vacuums wherever he goes,
而这正是以二层方案为中心的路线图一直以来的本质——一个由二层协议试图用自己的标准和品牌来填补的权力真空。
which is what the Layer two centric roadmap always was, is a a power vacuum that layer twos tried to inhabit with their own standards, their own branded char.
确实存在无结构的暴政，但无结构也带来了实验的正面价值。
There is a tyranny of structurelessness, but there's also a upside of experimentation on structurelessness.
我们就像让市场来决定，正在尝试所有这些方法。
We are Like, letting the market decide, and we are trying all of these things.
因此我认为，只要以太坊保持了去中心化以及它设法保留的核心价值，没有陷入通过捷径扩展的陷阱，你就可以更有信心地得出这个结论。
And this is why I think you can come with more confidence that as long as Ethereum has preserved decentralization and the core values that it somehow managed to preserve, it didn't go down the trap of trying to scale through shortcuts.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yeah.
市场会慢慢弄清楚的。
The market will kinda figure it out.
只要以太坊能够适应，它就会吸纳这些技术并让自己的系统变得更好。
As long as Ethereum adapts, it will take on these technologies and make its system better.
这就是‘让千花齐放’的好处。
And that's the benefit of, like, let a thousand flowers bloom.
但不幸的是，这千朵花中有九百朵会枯萎。
But unfortunately, 900 of those flowers are gonna go die.
人们将会
And people are gonna
在这个过程中感到失望。
get disillusioned in the process.
这就是人们的职责。
That's people's jobs.
这就是人们的生活。
That's people's lives.
这相当于数千亿美元的错误投资。
That's like hundreds of billions of dollars of malinvestment.
这确实是一个非常重大的代价。
Like that is a very significant cost.
这种感觉不像是一种双刃剑，而更像是一次非受迫性失误。
That feel, it feels It like an unforced doesn't feel like a double edged sword.
这感觉就像是一次非受迫性失误。
It feels like an unforced error.
我部分同意，部分不同意。
I'm partially there and partially not.
我看到了其中好的一面所付出的代价。
I I see the trade off with with the good there.
但让我们就此收尾，大卫，来探讨一些我认为重要的剩余问题，谈谈我们接下来该何去何从，以及这对以太坊意味着什么。
But let's talk, let's bring this to a close, David, and ask some remaining questions of that I think are significant and talk about where we go from here and where this leaves Ethereum.
嘿，Bankless 族群。
Hey, Bankless Nation.
我是大卫。
It's David.
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If you're hearing this, that's because you are listening to the free Bankless Podcast Feed.
你知道还有付费的Bankless RSS订阅吗？
Did you know that there is a premium Bankless RSS feed?
付费频道包含我为个人研究而进行的额外访谈，以及一些关于加密行业更深入的问题——这些问题我希望能得到解答，以便在Bankless Ventures以及我个人的投资组合中成为更知情的投资者。
The premium feed has extra interviews that I do for my own personal research and just deeper questions that I want answered about the crypto industry, questions that I want to answer so I can be more informed as an investor both at Bankless Ventures and also just in my own personal portfolio too.
此外，付费频道没有广告，这意味着如果你选择收听付费频道而非免费频道，每年能节省大约二十小时的时间，因为你直接支持了Bankless。
Also, there are no ads, which means if you listen to the premium feed instead of the free feed, you'll get about twenty hours of your life back every year because you choose to support Banklist directly.
所以，如果你希望获得额外内容并跳过广告，或者只是欣赏我们所做的工作并希望我们能持续下去，我们非常感谢你注册Bankless付费服务，详情链接请见节目说明。
So if you're interested in getting extra content all while skipping the ads or you just appreciate what we do here and want us to keep doing it, we'd appreciate it if you signed up for Banklist premium, and there is a link in the show notes to get started.
祝2026年一切顺利。
Cheers to a good 2026.
在加密领域，很少有人在公开做出顶部或底部预测时真正押上真金白银。
Few people in crypto put real skin in the game when they make public top or bottom calls.
DeFi报告就是其中之一。
The DeFi report is one of them.
在10月10日闪崩前一周，DeFi报告的迈克尔发邮件给他的整个通讯名单，称他将大幅降低风险，将大部分加密资产抛售并转为现金。
The week before the October 10 flash crash, Michael from the DeFi report emailed his entire newsletter saying he's going aggressively risk off and sold the majority of his book from crypto into cash.
当时以太坊价格约为4000美元，比特币为110美元。
This is when ETH was about $4,000 and Bitcoin was a 110.
迈克尔运营着DeFi报告，这是一个以数据、周期洞察、风险管理、透明度，最重要的是——真金白银投入为基础的行业领先研究平台。
Michael runs the DeFi report, an industry leading research platform built on data, cycle awareness, risk management, transparency, and most importantly, skin in the game.
我们在Bankless很欣赏迈克尔。
We like Michael at Bankless.
我们喜欢他的分析，因此你每月大约能听到一次他在Bankless播客中的分享。
We like his analysis, and that's why you hear him on the Bankless podcast about once a month.
DeFi报告正在为Bankless听众提供一个月的免费访问权限。
And the DeFi Report is giving Bankless listeners one free month of access to the DeFi report.
所以，如果你正在寻找一些敏锐的、以数据驱动的分析，以更明智地管理你的投资组合，你可以在DeFi报告专业版中了解迈克尔是如何预判顶部的，以及他接下来的行动。
So if you're looking for some sharp data driven analysis to make better informed decisions around your portfolio, you can learn why and how Michael called the top and what he's doing next all in the DeFi report pro.
去看看吧。
Check it out.
简介中有链接。
There is a link in the show notes.
所以问题是，如果你没有以太坊的社会认可，也没有那种L2阵营说‘嘿，我们爱你’的氛围。
So there is the question of if you don't have the social blessing of Ethereum and kind of the l two beat thing saying that, hey.
我们喜欢你。
We love you.
你是联盟的一员。
You're part of the alliance.
对吧？
Right?
如果这种认可在某种程度上减弱了，是否还有足够的网络效应来让Base留在以太坊上，让Arbitrum或Robinhood留在以太坊上，还是他们会受到Tempo或Circle Arc方向的吸引，自己发行代币并脱离联盟？
Or if that weakens at some level, is there enough network effect to keep base on Ethereum, to keep Arbitrum slash Robinhood on Ethereum, or do they get enticed to go the tempo direction or the Circle Arc direction and go launch their own token and split out of the alliance.
他们并没有流动性作为留在以太坊上的约束力。
They don't have that liquidity as a thing holding them into Ethereum.
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