“我们要比CME更大” | Kalshi的John Wang

美国银行。

Bank of America.

今天和我一起的是来自Kalshi的John Wang。

I'm here with John Wang from Kalshi.

John，欢迎来到我们的播客。

John, welcome to the podcast.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thank you for having me.

John，Kalshi是一家加密货币公司吗？

John, is Kalshi a crypto company?

我觉得是的。

I think so.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得在加密货币领域，显然有链上的定义，比如链上公司或加密货币公司。

I think in the crypto world, like, there's obviously an on chain definition, like, chain or crypto company.

我觉得我们绝对不算是一家链上公司，当然市场上确实有一些链上的预测市场。

I don't think we're an on chain company by any means, and there are on chain prediction markets out there for sure.

但加密货币是我们仅次于体育的第二大业务线。

But crypto is our second largest business line behind sports.

在加密货币运营领域，我们拥有90%的市场份额。

We have 90% market share in the crypto operations world.

我们很多最大的合作伙伴都在加密货币行业，比如Coinbase、Robinhood Crypto，还有Fantom等等。

We a lot of our, like, biggest, you know, partners are in the crypto industry, like Coinbase, Robinhood Crypto, like Fantom, and some others.

他们通过我们来路由订单和交易。

They route their orders and trades through us.

所以我觉得我们在这个行业里已经扎根很深了，而我的工作基本上就是帮助公司在这个行业里扎得更深。

And so I think we're pretty deeply embedded in the industry, and that's pretty much what my role is is, you know, to help us get get even deeper.

好的。

Okay.

所以加密货币就像是有它的影响力圈层。

So crypto is like there's the crypto sphere of influence.

我觉得你说的是，Kalshi在很多方面都处于加密货币的影响圈内，但你把它和Kalshi本身区分开来，说它不是一家链上公司。

And I think what you're saying is Kalshi is somewhat inside the crypto sphere of influence in a number of different ways, but you're distinguishing it from Kalshi as not an on chain company.

Kalshi想成为一家链上公司吗？

Does Kalshi want to be an on chain company?

最终，我们只是想打造一些超级易用、普通人也能用的产品，那些人不一定非得是加密货币的专家。

Ultimately, we just wanna build, like, products that are super easy to use and accessible to people, like normal people that don't necessarily aren't necessarily, like, super experts in crypto.

所以，我们的做法一直是走监管路线。

And so, our approach has always been to, like, go the regulated route.

而且我觉得美国的监管正在朝着链上的方向发展，你知道，随着各种立法的出台。

And I think US regulations are heading more towards being on chain, you know, with all the different, like, legislature that's coming out.

但就目前美国的监管状况来看，还不太兼容。

But at the current state of US regulations, like, it's it's not compatible.

我觉得几年后，那可能是我们想要达到的方向。

I think in, you know, several years, I that's somewhere where we wanna get to.

但就产品而言，我觉得我们一直在打造的产品，要么就是围绕加密货币交易。

But product wise, I think the products that we've been building have been either, like, you're around trading crypto.

比如说，世界上最大的加密货币公司，我觉得就是币安、Coinbase、Kraken这些。

For example, the largest crypto companies in the world, I would say, are, like, Binance, Coinbase, Kraken.

去中心化交易所，它们主要就是让用户交易加密货币的价格，而我们的加密预测市场给用户提供的也差不多是这个。

Decentralized exchanges, they are all about allowing their users to trade the price of crypto, and, that's pretty much what our crypto prediction markets offer to our users.

我们还有新的受监管的永续合约产品，这是美国第一个受监管的永续期货交易所。

We also have our new regulated perps offering, which is the first regulated perpetual futures exchange in The US.

这基本上就是第一次，你能在应用商店里看到一个永续合约的应用。

That's, like, the first time essentially you have a perped app on the App Store.

普通美国用户不用翻墙，合法就能访问，就像你妈妈、你表亲，甚至你朋友都能用。

You have, you know, legal no VPN access for normal US users, kind of like your your your mom, your cousin, even, like, your friend could access it.

而且，美国的机构也能通过他们用的那种基础设施，合规地访问。

And, also, US institutions, like, comp can compliantly access it via, like, the type of infrastructure that they utilize.

另外，我觉得中心化交易所的存取款功能，是很多人还在用它们的一个重要原因。

Also, I think, like, the deposits and withdrawals aspects of being, like, a centralized exchange is a large reason why many people still use centralized exchanges.

对我们来说，加密货币是平台存取款的一个重要渠道。

And for us, crypto is an important rail for depositing and withdrawing from the platform.

所以，显然，我们可以在美国直接存取稳定币或加密资产。

So, obviously, we have, like, the ability to just, you know, deposit and withdraw stablecoins or crypto assets in The US.

但在国际上，我们在140个国家开放。

But internationally, we're open in a 140 countries.

目前，我们只接受加密货币作为入金和出金的渠道，因为我们认为这是最无摩擦的方式，能实现全球货币访问，也是从当地货币转换为我们接受的美元的最顺畅途径。

The crypto rail is the only rail that we currently accept, for people to come into platform, put their money in because we found it's the most frictionless way to get, like, you know, global monetary access and sort of the the most frictionless way to convert from, you know, the local currency to the actual US dollar that we accept.

明白了。

I see.

明白了。

I see.

所以，对于Kalshi来说，要接受国际客户，唯一可行且易于集成的入金方式就是稳定币，或者当地法币稳定币的入金通道，进入Kalshi。

So the for Kalshi to accept international customers, the only on ramp that's viable and easy to integrate is, like, the stablecoin or, yeah, local local stablecoin, local fiat stablecoin on ramp into into Kalshi.

Kalshi的业务量和交易量中，有多少来自美国以外？

How much of Kalshi's businesses business volume and trading volume is from outside of The US?

这部分业务在Kalshi中占多大比重？

Like, how dominant is that side of Kalshi?

对。

Yeah.

我们目前主要还是以美国用户为主，但我觉得国际业务是我们非常重视的一个方向。

We're still predominantly a US company in terms of user base, but I think the international side is a huge focus of ours.

我们在那里采取了一种比较独特的做法，即使在美国，发展预测市场也有两条路，六七年前，要么去海外走不受监管的路线，要么在国内和监管机构合作，走那条非常艰难的路。

We are taking a somewhat unique approach there, which is obviously, like, even in The US, there's there's these two parts to growing a prediction market, you know, six, seven years ago, which is you go offshore and, you kind of take the unregulated route, or you go onshore and work with the regulators in The US, and kind of, like that's, like, the really hard hard path.

对吧？

Right?

比如花好几年时间只做法律方面的事情，同时产品还在测试阶段，甚至不能推广什么的。

Like, spending years just doing legal stuff while, like, shipping a product in beta and not even being able to, you know, market it and such.

所以我们在国际市场也采取了类似的长期策略，和当地的监管机构或最大的经纪商合作，把我们的预测市场嵌入到他们的产品里，就像我们嵌入到Robinhood或Coinbase那样。

So we're kind of taking a similar long long term approach to our international markets as well where we're working with, like, either the regulators or, like, the largest brokers in each country to to sort of embed our prediction markets inside their products, similar to how we've been embedding them into Robinhood or Coinbase.

所以我们已经在加拿大和Wealthsimple，或者巴西最大的经纪商XP达成了合作。

And so we've been able to secure deals with, like, Wealthsimple in Canada or, like, XP, which is the largest broker in Brazil.

所以，虽然这是长期战略，但一旦我们获得这些合作，就能一下子打开整个国家的交易用户群。

So overnight, like, it's the long game, but overnight, we can essentially unlock, like, the entirety of, like, a country's tradable like, trader user base if we get some of these partnerships.

但我们也在做很多实地工作，努力和每个监管机构建立对话。

But we're also doing a lot of, like, on the ground efforts to to try and, you know, find a dialogue with each individual regulator.

我和Ryan在观察预测市场发展时，经常拿Kalshi和Polymarket来对比，就像Tether和Circle一样。

As Ryan and I have watched the growth of prediction markets, we have frequently used the comparison between Kalshi and Polymarket as kind of like Tether and Circle.

一个是合规的、在岸的、链上的版本，就是Circle，它想和监管机构合作，非常合规。

You have the compliant on chain onshore version, which is the Circle, you know, who wants to work with the regulators, be very compliant.

这就是Circle的结构性优势。

That's kind of the structural edge that Circle has.

然后还有Tether，它有点像在离岸的欧元美元市场里玩，那个市场非常大，Tether能快速增长，就是因为它不在岸，也不太受监管约束。

And and then there's Tether, which is kind of like playing in the offshore euro dollar world, which is a very big world, and Tether has been able to grown actually grow pretty aggressively because it's actually not onshore and because it's not really constrained by the regulations.

我们就把Circle和Tether这两大稳定币的增长故事，套用到了预测市场上，Kalshi是在岸版本，Polymarket是离岸版本。

And we kind of took that same growth story between the two largest stablecoins, Circle and Tether, and we kind of have have applied them similarly to the prediction markets between Kalshi, the onshore version, and Polymarket, the the offshore version.

你觉得这个对比准确吗？

Do you think that that is an accurate comparison?

你觉得这个对比在哪些地方不成立，如果它有不成立的地方的话？

And where do you think that comparison or or, yeah, that comparison breaks down if it does?

对。

Yeah.

嗯，有个类比总是好的，方便我们思考。但我觉得稳定币特别的地方在于，最终产品其实就是卖美元，而美元在第三世界国家或离岸国家，至少从历史上看，有更大的市场需求和产品市场契合度。

Well, it's it's always good to have some analogies to, like, reason across all of, but I think with stablecoins in particular, it's the product ultimately is, like, selling the US dollar, And there's a much greater product market fit or, like, need for the US dollar, at least historically, in, like, these third world country nations or offshore countries.

所以我觉得Tether只是找到了客户更大的痛点，因此他们在国际上的增长非常惊人。

So I think Tethr has just, found a greater pain point for the customer, and therefore, like, their growth internationally has been quite astronomical.

而预测市场呢，我觉得更多不是像我们这样把美国中心化的东西推向世界。

Whereas with prediction markets, I think it's less about, like, know, we're shipping something that is, like, US centric to the rest of the world.

更多的是每个国家、每种群体，他们关心世界上不同的问题。

It's more about, like, each country and each type type of really just group of people, they have different questions about the world that they care about.

最终，我们所有的市场都是为了创造人们想要交易的相关事件和市场。

And, ultimately, all our markets are just about creating, like, the types of relevant events and markets that people wanna trade.

所以显然，现在世界上所有领先的预测市场，大部分团队都是美国的，专注于创建美国特有的市场。

And so, obviously, both, like, all the leading prediction markets in the world right now have mostly had US teams that are, like, focused on creating US specific markets.

但我们发现，即使是我们的一些市场，比如板球，在国际上也获得了很好的采用。

But we found, like, even some of our, like, markets in certain, like whether it be, like, cricket, good great adoption internationally.

世界杯对国际推广来说效果非常好。

The World Cup was great for international adoption.

加密货币其实已经相当普及了，你知道，全世界的人都知道比特币。

Crypto has been actually quite a strong, like, you know, everyone in the world knows about Bitcoin.

全世界的人都知道以太坊。

Everyone in the world knows about ETH.

所以这也跨越了很多国界。

And so that's also crossed a lot of borders.

所以，不。

So, no.

我不认为这完全是一对一的——嗯，这不是，我觉得这个类比在产品本质上就不太成立。

I don't I don't think it's exactly a one to well, it's it's not the I think the analogy breaks down in terms of, like, what the product actually is.

但从方法上来说，我觉得，是的，可能有些相似。

But in terms of the approach, I think, yeah, it could be somewhat similar.

不过我觉得，跟大多数受监管的公司相比，比如Coinbase或Circle，或者其他受监管的公司，Kalshi要精简得多，也更有冲劲，至少在我看来是这样，这只是我个人的看法。

Although I think we are, like compared to, like, most regulated companies, like a Coinbase or a Circle, or or inside other regulated company, Kalshi is much leaner and much more aggressive than than these other companies in my view, just like my personal view.

我们团队大约有180人，这可能是其他同类公司人数的20到40倍。

We have a team of around a 180 people, which is probably, like, 20 to 40 x more in terms of headcount than these other other types of companies.

而且我们的产品迭代速度和发布速度都极其激进。

And we're just have, like, an insane insanely aggressive, like, product velocity and shipping speed.

另外，即使在监管方面，我们也推动了预测市场和永续合约的合法化。

And, also, even from the regulatory side, like, we we pushed to legalize prediction markets and perpetuals.

为了预测市场，我们实际上不得不起诉了美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）。

For prediction markets, we actually had to sue the CFTC.

所以，这绝不是我们真的在为客户的最佳利益而战。

So it's it's it's, by no means, like, we're not really, you know, pushing for what's best for our customer.

对于预测市场，支持岸上合规策略的最有力论点是什么？

What's the steel man for why the onshore compliant strategy for prediction markets is is the right one?

最有力的论点，你是说为什么它可能……

The steel man, you you mean, like, why why it might

是那个……

be the

正确的选择？

right choice?

给我说说你的理由。

Give give me the argument.

我觉得你可以从两个角度来论证。

So, like, I think you could make two arguments.

一个角度是，离岸版的预测市场平台会基于某些因素胜出，另一个角度是，在岸版的预测市场平台会因为某些原因获胜。

One is, like, the offshore version of the prediction market platform is going to be able to win based off of x y z, or you can make another argument saying the onshore platform for prediction markets is going to win because of a b c.

我想让你给我讲讲，Kalshi作为在岸预测市场平台的那个角度。

I want I want you to give me the one where, like, what, Kalshi is the onshore prediction market platform.

它试图依靠监管合规和明确性，并与所有那些三个字母的机构合作。

It's trying to lean into, regulatory compliance and clarity and work with, the work with all the three letter agencies.

为什么这是最好的策略？

Why is that the best strategy?

为什么这是能赢的策略？

Why is that the winning strategy?

其实，CFTC 是四个字母的机构。

Well, CFTC is a four letter agency, actually.

说得对。

That's a good point.

但我们很爱我们的监管机构。

But we love we love our we love our agencies.

所以，是的，最有力的论点，我觉得是，你总是可以选择去离岸，用VPN，这样确实可以不用做KYC之类的，确实能让加密货币原生用户更容易上手，因为他们以前就经历过这些。

So, yeah, the steelman, I would say, is you always have this choice of of going, you know, offshore and, like, VPN, and that does act that actually it it does make, like doing no KYC and stuff like that, it does it does make onboarding the, like, crypto native user base easier, I would say, because they've jumped through these hoops before.

这是他们习惯的方式。

It's kind of what they're used to.

但对于全球99%的市场，我觉得这才是我们现阶段应该努力开拓的市场，我们要找的是那些边缘用户，把他们带进加密货币行业，或者让他们交易这种非常令人兴奋的新工具——其实也不算新，但就是那种从加密货币行业诞生的非常令人兴奋的工具，永续合约。

But for, like, the 99% TAM of the world, which I really think is the TAM that we should be trying to tap into at this stage where we're trying to find the marginal user to bring into the crypto industry or to trade this, like, very exciting new instrument well, not new, but, like, very exciting instrument that was born out of the crypto industry, perpetual futures.

那才是我们应该争取的用户群体。

That is the user set that we should be hunting for.

而要触及这个用户群体，我觉得唯一的方法就是能在Facebook和Instagram上投放广告，能立广告牌。

And the only way to tap into that user set, I would say, is you're able to, like, run paid ads on Facebook and Instagram, able to, like, put up billboards.

你还能跟那些家喻户晓的消费品牌合作，还能被整合进大型经纪商和金融机构，还能上架App Store。

You're able to partner with, like, household consumer names and, like, find get integrated into large brokers and financial institutions, be on the App Store.

而且随着你规模越做越大，你显然会受到更多的监管和合规审查。

And, like, as you grow to a larger scale as well, you're obviously, like, under much more regulatory and compliance scrutiny.

所以我觉得，如果你想触达那部分用户群体，走这种境内受监管的路线真的很关键，我认为那部分用户就是接下来要争取的。

So I think it's really a critical thing to take this, like, onshore regulated approach if you want to tap into that user set, which I think is, like, the next user set that that is up for the day.

我交易加密货币差不多十年了，这些年用过各种各样的钱包、交易所、聚合器，还有不同的前端，我一直在找同样的东西。

I've been trading crypto for almost a decade, and I've used so many different wallets, exchanges, aggregators, different front ends over the years, and I'm always kind of looking for the same thing.

就是一个界面，能提供多条链和多种资产的深度流动性，让我能进入所有市场，比如永续合约，赚收益，保密交易，同时还能自己掌控所有资金。

Just one interface with deep liquidity across a bunch of chains and assets where I can access all the markets like perps, earn yield, trade confidentially, and still control all my own funds.

但我从来没真正找到过这种体验，我总是在切换钱包，应付燃气费，还被滑点吃掉利润。

And I've never really found this experience, I'm always switching wallets, juggling gas fees, and just getting eaten by slippage.

Near.com不是那样的。

Near.com is not that.

对我来说，它感觉完全不一样。

It feels fundamentally different to me.

我可以在任何链上做我想做的一切，而且我的所有活动都是保密的。

I can do everything I want from any chain, and I keep all my activity confidential.

我甚至还能保密地赚取收益。

I can even earn yield confidentially.

这才是加密货币应该有的样子。

It's the way crypto should work.

near.com钱包由NEAR提供支持，已经通过后量子签名处理了超过250亿美元的跨链交易，并且在主网上运行了五年多，零停机。

The near.com wallet is powered by NEAR, and it's moved over $25,000,000,000 cross chain using post quantum signing and has run over five years on main net with zero downtime.

near.com是上链并掌控一切的最佳方式。

Near.com is simply the best way to be on chain and be in control.

通过节目说明中的银行列表链接，你可以拿回20%的交易手续费，这不是投资建议。

Get 20% of your trading fees back using the bank list link in the show notes, not investment advice.

自我托管赢了，但它仍然存在可用性问题。

Self custody won, but it still has a usability problem.

写在纸上的助记词仍然是一个单点故障。

A seed phrase on paper is still a single point of failure.

手机会丢，设备会坏，备份也会消失。

Phones get lost, devices break, backups disappear.

BITKEY 就是为这种现实而生的自我托管硬件钱包。

BITKEY is a self custodial hardware wallet built for that reality.

它采用 2/3 多重签名，密钥分别存放在你的手机、BITKEY 硬件设备和 Block 上。

It uses a two of three multisig with keys split across your phone, the BITKEY hardware device, and Block.

没有任何一把单独的钥匙能移动你的比特币，Block 也永远无法独自操作。

No single key can move your Bitcoin, and Block can never move it alone.

没有助记词需要担心丢失或泄露，即使你丢了手机、丢了 BITKEY，甚至两个都丢了，内置的恢复功能也能帮你找回路径。

There's no seed phrase to lose or expose, and if you lose your phone, your BITKEY, or both, built in recovery gives you a path back.

硬件屏幕还能让你在批准交易前确认收款地址。

The hardware screen also lets you verify the destination before approving a transaction.

而这正是关键所在。

And that's the point.

更多的掌控，而不会因为一个失误就让一切陷入风险。

More control without one mistake putting everything at risk.

所以今天就下载BitKey，并使用促销码bankless，享受BitKey九折优惠。

So download BitKey today and use promo code bankless to get 10% off of your BitKey.

本期节目由BitKey赞助播出。

This episode has been sponsored by BitKey.

你提到了Kalshi正在构建的永续合约平台。

You talked about the, perps platform that Kalshi is is building out.

永续合约现在是一个竞争非常激烈的领域。

Perps is a pretty competitive place to be in right now.

比如，永续合约真的很难做。

Like, perfs are pretty hard.

我最关注的两个顶级永续合约平台，Hyperliquid和Lighter，它们的技术实力都非常强，而且它们真的在围绕交易和永续合约这个工具本身进行高度优化。

Two of the best perf platforms that I really pay attention to, hyperliquid and and lighter, have just some pretty insane technical chops to them, and they're they're really just becoming hyper optimized around trading and the perpetual as an instrument specifically.

那么Kalshi凭什么认为自己能在永续合约这个竞争激烈的领域里立足呢？

So what makes Kalshi think that it can compete in this very competitive landscape around the perpetual?

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，永续合约的竞争确实很激烈，但我觉得更大的期货市场其实更激烈，因为你知道，市面上有大量的期货平台。

I mean, the, the landscape for perps is competitive, but I think even the the larger landscape of, like, futures is is, you know, I guess, more competitive because the there's, I mean, there's tons of futures platforms out there.

CME的规模比现在加密货币里的永续合约交易所还要大一个数量级。

CME is, like, an order of magnitude larger than even, like, the r, like, perp exchanges in crypto right now.

所以这个领域的竞争非常激烈。

So it's a very competitive landscape.

但我们之所以要参与进来，首先是因为我觉得我们能提供和那些加密货币交易平台一样好的产品体验，你知道，我个人熟悉那些平台，你也熟悉。

But the reason why we are throwing our hat in the ring is because, firstly, I think we can deliver a product experience on par with, like, some of the crypto, like, trading platforms that, you know, I personally am familiar with, you're familiar with.

比如，我们最近推出了Kalshi Pro，这是第一个由预测市场发布的官方交易终端。

For example, we shipped a Kalshi Pro recently, which is the first, like, official prediction market for a trading terminal, like, released by a prediction market.

我们还有一个永续合约专业版界面，它更接近行业里常见的那些界面类型。

But we also have, like, a perps pro interface, which is, like, more similar to the types of interfaces that you'd see in across the industry.

而且我们的手续费很有竞争力，流动性虽然还有提升空间，但你可以下六位数的订单，不会遇到太大的滑点。

And so our fees for that are quite competitive, and our liquidity is actually it's it still, there's obviously, like, a ways to go, but you can throw in, like, a 6 figure order size and not experience, like, too much slippage.

我们还在继续努力扩大流动性。

And we're still working to grow that even more.

所以从纯粹的交易执行和竞争力、经济角度来看，你在Kalshi永续合约上交易没有任何劣势。

So from, like, a pure, like, trading execution, competitive enough competitiveness of economic standpoint, you're at no disadvantage trading on Kalshi perps.

而且我们很快也会推出非加密货币的资产类别。

And, we're soon to launch, like, our noncrypto asset classes as well.

我记得我们申请了黄金和白银，应该几周内就能上线。

I think it was announced that we filed for a gold and silver, which should be, coming in a matter of weeks.

当然，我们也在计划扩展到其他资产类别，不止这些。

And, obviously, we're looking to expand to other asset classes beyond beyond just that.

而这确实是现在永续合约行业的前沿。

And, really, that is the frontier, right, for perps the perps industry nowadays.

比如Hyperliquid，现在他们大约一半的交易量来自这些现实世界资产。

Like, hyperliquid, think around half of their volume nowadays is from these real world assets.

而这些现实世界资产流动性的中心就在美国。

And the the center of all this real world asset liquidity is The United States.

正是美国的散户和大型机构，目前在为许多传统金融平台提供流动性或进行交易，他们需要一个受监管、易于访问的美国平台。

It's The US retail and large US institutions that are currently providing liquidity or trading on a lot of these traditional financial platforms that need to access, like, a regulated, easy to access US platform.

但是到目前为止，他们还没有机会享受到永续合约带来的好处和创新。

But they, so far, haven't haven't had the opportunity to sort of get the benefits and the innovations of perpetual futures.

你知道，不需要滚动你的期货合约，没有到期日，成本也更低。

You know, no no needing to, like, roll your futures, no expiries, cheaper costs.

所有这些，他们之前都没法接触到，直到现在有了Kalshi。

All these things, they haven't had access to until until now with Kalshi.

所以我觉得在现实世界资产这个新前沿领域，我们也能在流动性、渠道、分销以及产品体验方面成为行业领导者。

So I think in this, like, next frontier of real world assets, we'll also be able to, sort of, like, I I think, actually be the industry leader in terms of liquidity, access, distribution, and also just product experience.

不过，我们还没正式发布，所以只能等发布之后再来庆祝。

Although, you know, we still haven't released it yet, so, we can only celebrate it once we've done that.

但至少这是我们的核心思路。

But, I think that's the that's the thesis at least.

对。

Mhmm.

我上次看的时候，CFTC批准的还只有比特币永续合约。

The last I checked, it was still just the Bitcoin perp contract that the CFTC had approved.

现在还是这样吗？还是说Kalshi永续合约平台上现在有哪些市场？

Is that still, accurate, or what are the markets currently available on the Kalshi perp platform?

完全正确。

Totally.

对。

Yeah.

我们每上线一个新的资产类别，都会向CFTC提交40.3文件，这个季度就获得了批准。

So we get a CFTC approval, like, this quarter forty point three filing for every single new asset clause that we list.

所以比特币那个基本上就是为我们批准了加密货币作为资产类别。

So the Bitcoin one essentially approved crypto as an asset clause for us.

现在我们的永续合约交易所上已经有十几种加密资产了。

We now have, like, over a dozen crypto assets on our perp exchange.

但具体是哪些呢？

But what are they?

就只是比特币、以太坊、索拉纳这些吗？

Just for the they're just Bitcoin, ETH, Solana.

你们有哪些加密货币的永续合约？

What what what are the the crypto perps that you guys have?

对。

Yeah.

我们有比特币、以太坊，还有Hype。

We, Bitcoin, ETH, we we have hype.

我们有Solana、Zcash、NEAR、SWE、DERGE、XRP，如果我没说漏的话。

We have Solanas, Zcash, NEAR, SWE, DERGE, XRP, if I haven't said

已经说过了。

that already.

CFTC批准比特币合约，是不是让Kalshi有了那个叫什么来着的能力？

Did the Bitcoin the the approval of the Bitcoin contract from CFTC, did that give Kalshi the ability to what was it called?

就是自己注册，还是自动注册那种？

Self, like, self register or, like, auto register?

自我认证。

Self certification.

对。

Yeah.

自我认证。

Self certification.

谢谢。

Thank you.

对。

Yeah.

所以你们现在可以自我认证加密资产永续合约了。

So you guys can self certify, crypto asset perps now.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

当然，我们必须运行自己的风险模型，这些模型已经得到了CFTC的批准。

Obviously, we have to run our own risk models that that that have been CFT p CFTC approved.

所以这基本上和比特币永续合约的流程是一样的，但上市某种资产要容易得多。

So it kinda, like, follows the same process that it would for a Bitcoin perk, but it is much easier to, like, list something like

所以比特币永续合约给你们提供了一个框架，如果比特币能通过这些风险框架获批，那么其他任何通过同样风险框架的加密资产也能获批。

So the Bitcoin perk gave you guys, like, a framework that, like, if the Bitcoin can be approved with these risk frameworks, then any other crypto asset that also passes the risks frameworks can therefore also be approved.

没错。

Exactly.

对。

Yeah.

而且我觉得，我们的杠杆限制比其他离岸平台要低，这有利有弊。

And I think, you know, our leverage limits are lower than other, sort of offshore platforms, and there are trade offs to that.

比如，显然有些交易者不想接受较低的杠杆限制。

Like, obviously, some some traders don't don't want to, like, they don't want to take, like, lower leverage limits.

根据我们在链上和其他平台的数据分析，只有20%到30%的用户交易超过我们的杠杆限制，也就是六倍。

Based on our, like, sort of, like, data analytics, on, like, their Onchain and other platforms, Only, like, 20 to 30% of users trade above, like, our per, leverage limit, which is, like, six x.

实际上我们发现大多数交易者交易在两倍到四倍之间。

Most traders, we actually find they trade between two to four x.

所以这覆盖了绝大多数交易者。

So that captures, like, the vast lion's share of of traders.

所以实际上并没有你想象的那么限制。

So it's actually not as prohibitive as you might think.

但对于我们即将推出的非加密货币永续合约，杠杆限制会高得多，因为这类资产波动性小得多。

But for our, like, upcoming non crypto perps, the leverage limits for those will be much higher given that they're, like, much less volatile of an asset class.

所以通过Kalshi，你实际上可以获得与现有RWA平台相似的杠杆限制。

So you'll actually be able to get similar leverage limits to the existing per RWA platforms that you've been seeing out there, via Kalshi.

而且我们的费用结构也很有竞争力，我觉得，相比币安或者Hyperliquid之类的。

And, and our economics or, like, our fees are are are pretty competitive, I think, you know, compared to, like, a Binance or, like, a hyper liquid.

目前我们在每个层级上的费用都更低。

We have lower fees at every year currently.

Kalshi永续合约平台接下来有什么发展计划？

What's the plan for the Kalshi per platform to evolve from here?

作为参考，我对Lighter的路线图比较熟悉，或者说至少知道他们想做什么。

And just as as a frame of reference, I'm pretty familiar with, like, the the lighter road map, for example, or at least what they want to do.

对。

And Mhmm.

他们特别想做的一件事就是实现真实世界资产的代币化，这样永续合约就有了真正的现货基础，也能在现货市场上交易。

One of the things they really want to do is they want to get tokenized real world assets, so, like, a a real basis for the PERP to also trade on spot.

所以这里有三个要素。

So you have like three ingredients here.

首先是实际的代币化股权或代币化的真实世界资产。

You have the actual tokenized equity or tokenized real world asset.

然后平台里还要有现货市场，最后才是永续合约本身。

You have a spot market also built into the platform, and then you have the the perpetual itself.

有了这三个要素，你就能衍生出各种各样的期权策略、组合，几乎是无穷无尽的排列组合。

And with those three ingredients, you can really blossom into a bunch of different, like, optionality strategies, baskets, you know, is kind of like open ended in the permutations.

所以这就是莱特对永续合约平台如何发展的看法。

And so that's how that's the, like, Leiters opinion for how it kind of grows as a as a per platform.

嗯。

It's Mhmm.

Kalshi 也想朝那个方向发展吗？

Does Kalshi also want to grow in that direction?

因为你也需要有一个现货市场，然后还要有一个现金结算的标的资产。

Because you would also need to have, like, a spot market and then also try to have, like, a cash settled underlying.

Kalshi 永续合约平台的演进计划是怎样的？

What's the what's the evolution plan for, like, the Kalshi perpetual platform?

现货市场我们确实考虑过，如果合适的话，我们会加进去。

Spot is definitely something we've considered, and if it makes sense to add to it.

比如说，用比特币做保证金，或者非现金保证金，这挺有意思的。

For example, like, margining in Bitcoin or, like, noncash, that's pretty interesting.

这取决于监管的放开，但内部我一直在推动这件事。

It depends on regulatory unlocks, but, it's definitely something that I've been pushing for internally.

至于具体的路线图，我们主要还是集中在，首先，我们很快会推出一系列有趣的激励计划。

In in terms of, like, actual road map, I would say we're, primarily concentrated on, well, firstly, we're rolling about out a bunch of interesting incentive programs soon.

这些会让我们的平台很有吸引力，尤其是交易某些特定的币种。

So those would make it pretty attractive, I would say, to to trade on our platform, also to trade specific coins.

而且如果你是那种大交易者，你知道，我们希望让我们的平台成为你交易的最佳选择，流动性最好，或者你在订单执行方面不会遇到任何麻烦之类的。

And also if you're, like, a big trader, you can you know, we'd we'd like to make it such that our platform is, like, the best place for you to place your trades, most liquid, or, like, you don't have any troubles around order execution and stuff like that.

其次，我觉得我们的Kalshi Pro产品，我们正在大力投入。

Secondly, I think our Kalshi pro product we're leaning into pretty hard.

所以，显然，在永续合约方面，我们有TradingView的集成，还有其他你可能希望在更传统的股票或期权经纪商那里看到的集成，比如Moomoo或Tastytrade之类的。

So, obviously, like, the perps side of things, we have, like, the TradingView integrations and the types of other integrations that you might wanna see with, like, a more traditional brokerage for stocks or options like a Moomoo or Tastytrade, stuff like that.

所以我们要提供与那些用户群体相匹配的产品体验。

So providing, like, a product experience with parity to those that user bit that user set.

然后还有，交叉销售我们现有的预测交易者，并吸引那些可能对预测感兴趣的新高级交易者。

And then also, like, cross selling our existing predictions traders and acquiring new, like, more advanced traders that might be interested in predictions.

这就是我们看到的差异化所在。

Like, that's where we see our, like, differentiation being.

然后我们正在努力解锁这些新的资产类别，就像我之前提到的，从黄金、白银和金属开始。

And then we're working really hard on unlocking these new asset classes, as I mentioned before, like, starting with gold and silver and metals.

我觉得，永续合约，我们永续合约产品的定位，不仅仅是推出一个优秀的永续合约产品，还要考虑如何将其与我们预测产品的优势结合起来。

I would I think, like, perps is well, where we lie with perps, like our perps product, is isn't just, like, shipping a great perps product, but it's also, like, how can we commingle it with our the benefits of our predictions product.

所以，在我们的永续合约产品上，我们不仅有这个，我们还有Kalshi Social，它类似于Fomo，或者我觉得Robinhood Social最近也发布了一个和我们平台很像的东西。

So on our perps product, not only do we have, like, this, like we have this Kalshi Social, which is similar to, like, Fomo or, like, I think Robinhood Social recently released something that looks similar to our platform.

这真的很让人兴奋。

So that's quite that's quite exciting.

在永续合约上有个类似闲聊区的地方，几乎让我想起了2017、2018年的BITMEX。

There's like a troll box on perps that is similar, almost like gives me flashbacks to BITMEX back, you know, 2017, 2018.

但是，我们的预测产品本身，这些交易者能够为比特币达到某个价格的概率定价，比如预测比特币在每小时、每天、每月，甚至每年的价格。

But, our predictions product itself, we have, like these traders are able to price the odds of Bitcoin hitting a certain price, like predicting the price of Bitcoin on a hourly, daily, monthly, we like, annual basis.

我们也把这些见解融入到我们的永续合约产品中，这样人们就能在图表上看到这些概率，在内部部分看到市场预期的统计数据。

And we sort of distill those insights into our Perps product as well so people are able to, like, see the odds on the chart in the inside section, like, the stats around, like, what what the market expectation is.

而且，我们发现这确实帮助了很多可能是第一次交易永续合约的交易者。

And that's, like, actually we found that's helped a lot of our traders who might be it's their first time trading perps ever.

这些市场预期，或者我们如何把永续合约包装成涨跌而不是多空，以及我们如何让杠杆对我们用户来说更容易理解。

And these types of, like, market expectations or just, like, the way we package perps into, like, up or down instead of long or short and the way we, like, make leverage, you know, much more understandable for our user base.

这些类型的做法帮助很大。

Like, those types of things have helped a lot.

我觉得我们接下来会继续朝这个方向努力，也就是怎么把永续合约和预测市场最好的部分结合起来，然后面向那些刚接触永续合约的用户，他们可能是简单的永续合约交易者，也可能是更进阶的日内交易者。

And I think we're gonna keep leaning more into that in terms of our road map, which is, like, how do we combine the best parts of pups and predictions together and build it to, like, a user base that is new to pups, and they may be, like, a simple pups trade trader or, like, a more advanced day trader.

有没有一个愿景，就是把Kalshi整合成一个统一的平台，预测市场、永续合约，还有你刚才提到的社交功能，都整合在一个界面里？

Is there a vision of just, like, a single unified Kalshi platform where predictions and perps and that social feature that you were talking about is all kind of unified in one single interface?

因为我目前的理解是，永续合约和预测市场并不是一回事。

Because as I under understand it now, like, perps and the prediction markets are just not the same thing.

它们是分开的平台，各自独立。

Separate platform is siloed.

未来有没有一个统一的Kalshi版本，或者你们是怎么考虑这些产品之间的协同效应的？

Is there, like, a is there a grand unified version of Kalshi in the future, or how do you guys think about just, like, the the synergies of these products actually coming together?

我们的永续合约，至少是简单版的产品，已经很好地整合到我们的应用里了。

So our perps, like simp at least, like, the simple product is quite integrated into our, app already.

如果你打开我们的手机应用，会看到一个永续合约的标签页。

So if you go on our mobile app, we have a tab for perps.

如果你打开网页版，也有永续合约的标签页。

If you go onto our web app, we also have a tab for perps.

目前的分裂更多是在我们的简单体验和专业体验之间。

And then the the current bifurcation is more so with, like, our simple experience and our pro experience.

我们正在努力把它们更好地结合起来，或者让切换变得更顺畅。

And we're working to, like, combine that a bit more or, like, make it a bit seamless more seamless in switching.

切换。

Switching.

但其实已经整合得不错了，而且我想说，我们确实想提供一个相当连贯的体验。

But But it is quite integrated, and, I would say that we do wanna provide a, like, a pretty cohesive experience.

我们来聊聊预测市场吧，因为那是Kalshi的主要业务。

Let's get into into prediction markets since that's the the main bread and butter butter of Kalshi.

预测市场有一个核心的权衡，我觉得预测市场必须得想办法在这条线上走好。

There's this there's this this central trade off around prediction markets that I think, British markets just kinda have to figure out how to walk the line here.

我说的就是，预测市场之所以准确，是因为它用交易来激励那些拥有私有信息的人去透露信息。

There and what I'm talking about is, like, prediction markets are accurate because they pay people who have private information to reveal it with their traits.

这基本上就是预测市场的全部意义——如果你有内幕消息，你可以来预测市场。

Like, that's kind of the whole point of prediction market is, like, if you have alpha, you can come to a prediction market.

你可以来Kalshi，把你的优势信息卖给市场。你基本上是在把这些信息卖给那些噪音交易者，也就是没有内幕消息的散户群体。

You can come to Kalshi, and you can sell that alpha to the market, And you're basically selling it to noise traders, the the uninformed retail crowd.

所以，这些散户和噪音交易者实际上是在为拥有私人市场信息的人提供激励，让他们把信息揭示给市场。

And so the the retail crowd, the noise traders, they come and they basically fund the incentives for people with private market information to reveal their private market market information to to the market.

我们就是通过这类预测市场平台来获取信息的。

And that's how we gain information from these prediction market platforms.

但这里存在一个张力：如果Kalshi或其他任何预测市场平台对所谓的内幕交易——也就是那些优势交易者进场卖出他们的市场信息——过于宽松的话……

But there's a tension here between if Kalshi or any or, you know, prediction market platform, whatever, is too permissive with the insider trading quote unquote, the the the alpha traders coming and selling their market information to the market.

如果规则太宽松，价格确实会很准确，但散户就会觉得这游戏不公平，甚至怀疑有猫腻。因为他们没有任何内幕信息，却还要为市场提供资金，这让他们觉得吃亏了。

If they're too permissive, prices are very accurate, but retail kind of just feels that the game is rigged and they can't really they are it's not fair to them because they don't have any of the alpha and they're the ones financing the information coming into the market.

反过来，如果监管太严，把那些掌握信息的交易者都挡在外面，市场就会退化成单纯的民意调查，而不是反映真实新闻或有效信息的场所。

On the flip side, if it's too restrictive, if, like, overly restrictive surveillance cuts off the informed flow from the market, the market degrades into just being like a sentiment poll rather than like actual news or actual information.

所以预测市场得走钢丝：既要吸引散户来，让他们愿意把信息带进市场；又不能从散户身上榨取太多，否则他们就不来了。

And so there's a tightrope that a prediction market has to walk here where you do need to attract retail customers to incent information to come to the market, but you can't allow for too much extraction from retail or else then the retail won't come.

不然的话，扑克桌上的新手全被洗劫一空，以后就没法再上桌了。

They'll just all the the fishes at the poker table will get milked and then they won't be able to come back.

那Kalshi是怎么在这两个极端之间找到平衡点的呢？

What's this strategy for Kalshi to find the equilibrium between these two polarities?

对。

Yeah.

这个问题问得很好。

That's a great framing.

我觉得这确实是一个光谱。

You know, I think it is definitely a spectrum.

我们在这个光谱上的位置是，我们是一家以市场为先的公司。

Our where we sit on that spectrum is we are like a markets first company.

说到底，我们是在建一个交易所。

Like, ultimately, we are building an exchange.

这样做的一个很大的副产品是，人们用我们的网站来更好地了解世界，或者看看市场预期是什么，大家目前的共识是什么。

One, like, strong byproduct of that is that people are using our website to, you know, get better informed about the world or, like, see what people you know, the market is expecting, what people's consensus is currently.

另外，对于那些对某个话题有特别见解，或者比别人做了更多研究，更有资源或更好奇的交易者，他们也能从这些额外的研究和好奇心当中获利。

And then also for traders who do have special like, you know, insights into a certain topic or have done more research than others are are more, like, resourceful or curious, they are able to also profit off of that those you know, their their extra research and their curiosity.

所以我们在内幕交易上划了一条非常清晰的红线，而且我觉得有很多市场，用户其实可以通过做研究获得优势，而不需要依赖内幕信息或者所谓的私人情报。

So we do draw a bright red line, about insider trading, and I think there are also many markets that like, it's like, insider trading, I think, is, you know like, there there are many markets where, like, users would actually be able to do research and get edge without resorting to sort of insider information or, quote, unquote, like private alpha.

只要你有好奇心、有办法，还能搭建系统——现在在AI时代搭建系统其实更容易了——我们看到很多交易者就是做得特别好。

There there are these types of things where as long as you're curious and resourceful and you're you can build systems, which are actually easier to build now in the age of clawed AI, we've seen a lot of traders just, like, do exceptionally well.

即使在我们那些音乐排行榜市场里，你可能觉得那有点像巫术一样。

Even in our, like, music char markets where you might think that, you know, it's it's kind of like voodoo magic.

那只是你作为旁观者可能会有的想法。

That's that's kinda just like what you'd what you might think as as kind of like an outside observer.

但如果你真的深入其中，整天盯着这些音乐排行榜看。

But if you're in the trenches, you're, like, looking at these music charts all day.

我们有个叫Grande Top 10的家伙。

We have this guy called Grande Top 10.

他基本上就是个音乐排行榜类的YouTuber，专门做排名那种，对Ariana Grande、公告牌排行榜这些特别门儿清。

He's basically been like a music chart, like YouTuber, like ranking sort of type of guy and super in the weeds of Ariana Grande, Billboard charts, etcetera.

他就是因为深度参与这些社区，利用各种不同的信息来源，所以一直能发现机会。

He's just consistently been able to find edge by being super involved in these communities and, these, like, different information sources.

所以，你知道，确实有很多正当的方式可以找到优势。

And so, you know, there there are definitely fair ways to find edge.

我们有很多基础设施来防止内幕交易的发生，同时也会监控市场，一旦发生就能追踪到。

We have a ton of, like, infrastructure around preventing insider trading from even happening in the first place, but also surveilling the markets and tracking it when it does happen.

比如，我们有政客名单，还有他们竞选团队的人，或者体育队伍里的人，以及在他们周围工作的人。

For example, like, we have lists of politicians, people in their campaign groups, or sporting teams, people who work at the sporting team, like people, peripherally around them.

已经有这样的监控平台，为体育公司、体育博彩公司、预测市场公司提供服务，对于股票内幕交易，也有公司提供高管及其关联人员的名单。

There are, like, already these types of, like, surveillance platforms that offer these services to sports companies, sports betting companies, prediction market companies, and for stocks, for insider trading, there are companies that provide lists of, like, executives and all their associate people.

所以，是的，我觉得我们在预防和打击内幕交易方面做了很多工作。

So, yeah, I I think it we're we're we've done, like, a a lot of work around preventing and enforcing against insider trading.

然后你提到的那个哲学问题，就是如果目标是成为一个信息真相的平台，那么阻止内幕交易是否值得？

And then there's this, like, philosophical question that you mentioned, which is, is it even, like, worth preventing insider trading, if the goal is to be kind of this, like, like, information source of truth type of platform?

所以我的回答是，我在加入Kalshi时想了很多，最终，我们希望大规模服务用户，把金融市场扩展到最大的潜在市场。

And so my response to that, and I I thought about this a lot when I was joining Kalshi, is, you know, ultimately, we wanna service people at scale and build like, scale our financial markets to their their greatest TAM.

在规模化的阶段，这些市场才能发挥最佳效果，因为参与的人最多。

And at at the at scale, right, that's when these types of markets work the best because you have the most people pitching in.

你就能得到最准确的共识。

You have the most accurate consensus.

你就能拥有最大的流动性。

You have the greatest liquidity.

而要实现这一点，唯一的方法就是防止内幕交易。

And the only way you can achieve that is by preventing insider trading.

比如在股票市场，内幕交易被禁止的原因，你可能觉得是出于道德考虑，确实也有道德因素。

The the reason why insider trading is banned, for example, in the stock markets, you might think it's kind of, like, for an ethical reason, which there is definitely an ethical component.

但更重要的原因其实是市场结构方面的，就是一旦有大量知情交易者带来的有毒流动性涌入，做市商就不会再报价了。

But the greater reason is actually, like, a market structure reason, which is, like, once you have a lot of toxic flow of, like, informed traders coming in, market makers aren't gonna quote anymore.

流动性提供者会撤回他们的报价。

Liquidity providers are gonna pull their quotes.

这样一来，就没有人能在流动性充足的市场里交易了，那信号也就没了。

And therefore, like, no one will have a liquid market to trade against, and then you won't have a signal anyways.

所以，如果你想要市场诚信和健康的市场，并且让它们大规模发展，你就必须划定这条反对内幕交易的界限。

And so you just have to draw this line against insider trading if you want to have market integrity and healthy markets that thrive at scale.

内幕交易在预测市场的场景下有没有被正确定义？

Is insider trading properly defined for the prediction market use case?

我可能应该在录这期播客之前好好研究一下这个问题，但我觉得内幕交易在证券领域定义得很清楚。

I I maybe I should have looked into this a little bit better before doing this podcast, but, like, reinserted trading, I think, very well defined for the securities context.

你觉得内幕交易的定义能不能准确、完整地套用到预测市场上？

Do you think that the definition of what secure what insider trading is appropriately carries over in, a high fidelity way into prediction markets?

还是说，你觉得预测市场作为一个平台，可能需要一个不同的内幕交易定义，在某些类型的市场上更宽松，在某些类型的市场上更严格？

Or do you think prediction markets as a platform could use a an alternative definition of insider trading to be more permissive in certain types of markets or more strict in certain types of markets?

你觉得我们需不需要重新考虑一下内幕交易在预测市场中的含义，还是说这些法律本身就已经定义得很清楚了？

Like, do you do you think do you think we need to reconsider what insider trading means in the prediction market context, or do you think that those laws are actually pretty well defined in the first place?

对。

Yeah.

好消息是，我们实际上在每个市场都定义了什么是内幕交易，并且标记了那些内幕交易风险较高的市场类型。

Well, the great thing is we actually defined, like, insider trade what insider trading is on every market, And we flag those types of markets that are at a higher risk of insider trading.

所以Kalshi自己定义了其市场中的内幕交易。

So Kalshi defines what insider trading is for its own markets.

你刚才说的是这个意思吗？

Is that is that what you just said?

嗯，不是的。

Well, no.

其实有一个框架来定义内幕交易，比如，好吧。

There is a framework for defining in insider trading at, like Okay.

在监管层面。

The regulatory level.

但到了向用户传达和设定界限的时候，我们在市场层面还有额外的防护措施。

But then, like, when it comes to sort of communicating the and setting the bounds for our users, we have, like, extra guardrails up at the market level.

明白了。

I see.

比如，在我们的界面上，我们会说明政客或与政治相关的人，比如国会议员等，不允许在我们的政治市场上交易。

So for example, we, on the UI, we say that politicians or politically associated persons, congressmen, etcetera, are not allowed to trade on our political markets.

他们可以在我们的体育市场等地方交易，但不能在我们的政治市场上交易。

They can trade on our sports markets and stuff like that, but they can't trade on our political markets.

他们不能在任何政治市场上交易。

They can't they can't trade on any political markets.

他们不能在政治类别内交易吗？

They can't trade inside of the political category?

嗯，我得查一下具体的规定，因为我觉得这很大程度上取决于你是哪种政治人物。

Well, I'd have to check on, like, the specific, because it I think it depends a lot on, like, what type of person political person you are.

另外，我主要负责加密货币、大宗商品和永续合约这块业务。

Also, I'm more so on the crypto commodities and perpetuals side of the business.

但我觉得，总的来说，我们不希望国会议员之类的在政治市场上交易。

But, I I think, like, generally, we we don't want people who are, like, in congress to trade political markets.

我觉得，我相当确定，大概90%确定，我们确实禁止他们这么做。

I think I think I'm pretty sure that one, like, 90% sure that one is true, that we we prevent them.

所以，是的。

And so, yeah.

就是说，有预防措施，然后还有在界面上的市场层面的措施。

Like, there there's there's, like, the preventative step, and then there's, like, the at the market step here on the UI.

而且即使是我们自己的市场，就像你提到的，有时候内幕交易确实会发生。

And then even even for, like, our markets, we like, as you mentioned, like, sometimes insider trading does happen.

就是说，股票市场里没有万无一失的办法来防止内幕交易。

Like, it's it's there's no bulletproof solution to prevent insider trading in the stock market.

预测市场也是一样，我们在这里也会面临各种不同的权衡和风险。

Same thing applies in prediction markets, and there are different types of trade offs and risks that we also face here.

我们能做的最好的事情，就是尽量让我们的交易者充分了解他们面临的风险，以及我们采取的各种预防措施，这样当你进入这类市场时，就不会措手不及。

The best thing what we can do is to make the traders our traders as aware as possible of, like, the risks that they're facing and, like, the types of precautions that we have put in place just so that when you're entering this type of market, that you're not caught caught off guard.

对吧？

Right?

所以，在进入某些类型的市场之前，我们确实会有提示。

And so we we do have flags, like, before you enter certain types of markets.

我觉得有时候，在我们的一些不同界面上，每个市场都会有这样的披露，说明内幕交易的风险，以及如何举报、如何预防，还有我们是怎么来预防的。

I think sometimes on on, like, our some in different interfaces, like, every single market, that it like, we just have kind of this, like, disclosure about, like, the risks of insider trading and, you know, how to report it, how to prevent it, and how how we, what we do to to prevent it.

我觉得有意思的是，传统市场也遇到了知识产权这个概念的问题。

I do think it's interesting that traditional markets have run up against the the whole notion of IP, intellectual property.

也许我们可以回过头来，重新把最初的问题讲清楚。

And and maybe could to kinda go back and, like, set the same stage of the the original question.

我们有一个著名的案例，就是2024年总统选举，有个法国人，我记得他在美国国内资助了一堆民调来获取信息。

We had we had the the famous case of the the twenty twenty four presidential election, the guy in France, I think who financed a bunch of polls domestically in The United States to go get information.

然后他付钱，这个交易者付钱在摇摆州做了很多民调。

And so he paid, they paid this one trader paid for a bunch of polls to be made in in swing states.

而且这些民调非常精确，这个交易者就拿到了这些信息。

And, like, the nature of the poll was very precise, and this trader just got in this information.

然后根据这些民调结果，他在特朗普身上下了很大的注。

And then they as a result of hearing those the the outcomes of the polls, they made a very large position on Donald Trump.

这算内幕交易吗？

Is that insider trading?

当然不算。

Absolutely not.

完全不算。

Like, not in the slightest.