发生了什么？AI股票、加密货币下跌、金属抛售、SaaSpocalypse | 吉姆·比安科

也许AI不会立即改变宝洁、通用汽车或埃克森美孚的商业模式。

Maybe AI is not gonna change a Procter and Gamble's business model right away or a General Motors business model right away or an Exxon's business model right away.

但他们进入埃克森这样的公司时，会指出：看看你们在会计软件、客户关系管理软件、分析软件上花了多少钱，你们有多少个微软Office的订阅，等等等等。

But what they are going to be able to come into an Exxon to do is say, look at how much money you are spending on accounting software, on CRM software, on analysis software, how many thousands of subscriptions do you have to Microsoft Office, on and on and on.

我可以提供一个成本低得多的方案，帮你们节省数千万美元。

Here, I can give you something for a lot less than save you tens of millions of dollars.

所以这就是为什么他们开始接受这个观点。

So that's why they're starting to buy into that argument.

他们现在就只有这一点可做。

That's all they've got right now.

但你说得对，应用层正伴随着这些技术逐渐到来。

But you're right, the app layer is coming with a lot of this stuff.

而且也必须到来，因为正如我刚才所说。

And it's also gotta be coming too because of what I just said.

如果我们每小时都要面对一次升级的升级，而AI又无法教我们如何正确使用它，因为它自己都跟不上节奏，那么我们就还没到推出应用层的时候，因为构建在不断变化的技术之上实在太困难了。

If we can't go an hour without getting another upgrade to a previous upgrade and AI can't tell me how to use AI properly because it can't keep up, then we're not quite there yet in terms of putting out the app layer because it's too difficult to try and build on stuff because it's constantly changing and stuff like that.

但这是必然趋势，而且会以巨大的规模到来。

But it's coming, it's definitely coming in a big way.

是的。

Yeah.

吉姆，我们最近邀请了林·奥尔登做客播客。

Jim, we recently had Lynn Alden on the podcast.

她的那一期实际上会在你之后发布。

Her episode actually comes out after yours.

你的这一期，从录制时间来看，我们明天就会发布这个播客。

Yours, the from the time of recording, we're gonna release this podcast tomorrow.

她说了一些让我觉得特别有意思的观点，是关于这场革命的价值究竟会集中在何处。

She said something that was pretty interesting to me, and it was about the nature of where the value of this whole revolution accrues.

我们手头的一些数据显示，亚马逊、Meta、谷歌的资本支出简直高得离谱。

And some of the data that we have here is, well, we know Amazon, Meta, Google, CapEx spending is just through the roof.

所以它们并不是在省钱。

So they're not they're not saving any money.

他们并没有捕获任何价值，因为他们把所有钱都花在了扩大产能上。

They're not they're not capturing any value because they're just spending it all building out capacity.

OpenAI、Anthropic 和所有 AI 实验室都在砸重金，只为赶超这场 AI 竞赛，早日实现 AI。

OpenAI, Anthropic, all the AI labs spending boo koo bucks trying to just finish this AI race, get to the AI.

他们也没赚到任何钱。

They're not they're not making any money either.

他们仍处于增长阶段，但还没赚到钱。

They're still in their growth phases but they're not making any money.

这就引出了一个问题：好吧，

And so that it really begs the question, it's like, alright.

到底这些价值最终都流向了哪里呢？

Like, where all where's all this value going at the end of the day?

Lynn 说了一件挺有意思的事，我想听听你的看法，那就是股权价值或价值本身最终落到了消费者手中——那些使用产品并能开发应用的人。

Lynn said something pretty interesting that I wanna get your opinion on, which is that the the equity value or the value itself really ends up in the hands of the consumers, the people using the products who can build apps.

我不确定她是否明确这么说，但我和我的姐夫有过类似的对话，这其实代表了我经历过的许多其他对话。

And I don't know if she said this specifically, but this has just been a conversation a conversation that I had with my brother-in-law and this, you know, emblematic of many other conversations I've had.

他说过

Said that

他是个姻亲？不，我猜你姐夫是个普通人。

he's a brother-in-law's a no I assume your brother-in-law's a normie.

他不参与加密货币领域。

He's not involved in the crypto space

他在医疗科技行业。

or He's in he's in health care tech.

他在医疗科技行业。

He's in health care tech.

所以他有科技背景，但就像，所以

So he's tech oriented, but like, so

他仍然是个普通人。

He's still a normie.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

他比我大八岁。

And he he's he's like eight years older than me.

他说：老天，我希望自己要么年轻二十岁，要么年长二十岁。

And he goes, man, I wish I was either, you know, twenty years younger or twenty years older.

我要么现在就退休，不用去应付AI；要么就年轻二十岁，那样我就能适应它。

I either wanna be retired right now so I don't have to deal with AI or I want to be twenty years younger so I could, like, adapt to it.

这里的重点是，真正的价值并不在于亚马逊或其他大型云服务商花掉的所有钱。

And, like, the the idea here is, like, really the equity value isn't it like, Amazon spending everything, all the k the the big hyperscalers are spending all of their money.

AI实验室正处于激烈的竞争中。

The AI labs are in hyper competition.

所有价值最终会流向哪里？

Where does all the value accrue?

价值会流向使用产品并创造出有价值成果的用户。

It accrues to the users using the product who are going to make something valuable.

你对这一点有什么想法或反思吗？如果这对你来说有意义的话，你觉得这种趋势真正推动价值的方向在哪里？

Do you have any sort of thoughts or reflections about that, if that makes sense to you or where you think this is really pushing the value?

这完全说得通，我认为是的，正是如此。

It makes a perfect sense and I think, yes, exactly.

价值会集中在用户身上。

It accrues to the user.

目前在人工智能领域，用户主要是企业，它们正试图将业务任务——如会计、合规、分析之类的——变得更轻松、更简单、更便宜。

The user right now on AI is largely a business and it's largely trying to take business tasks, accounting, compliance, analysis, that kind of stuff, and making that ease easier and simpler and cheaper.

因此，你才会看到这些股票开始上涨。

And so that's why you're seeing those stocks start to rally.

你才会成为赢家——宝洁、通用汽车、埃克森美孚，因为通过人工智能，你将获得更便宜、更好的产品，从而更高效地实现你的商业模式目标。

You're going to be the winner Procter and Gamble and General Motors and Exxon from this AI race because you're gonna get cheaper products and better products in order to accomplish the goals of what you want to do with your business model.

而你在另一侧看到的巨额支出问题在于，许多公司开始意识到，这是一场必须赢的竞赛，没有第二名，也没有参与奖。

And the problem that you're seeing with the spend on the other side is a lot of these companies are starting to realize this is a race to win and there is no second place and there's no participation trophy.

事实上，科技圈对苹果最大的抱怨就来自于这一点。

As a matter of fact, that has been the biggest complaint you've heard out of tech about Apple.

苹果正在尝试推行苹果的模式。

Apple is trying to do the Apple model.

对吧？

Right?

我们打算坐观其变。

We're going to sit back.

我们让其他人自己内耗。

We're going to let everybody else beat themselves up.

然后我们再像当年推出iPhone那样现身。

And then we'll just show up like they did with the iPhone.

对吧？

Right?

诺基亚发明了智能手机。

Know, Nokia invented the smartphone.

你记得在九十年代末到两千年初，还有掌上电脑吧。

You had the Palm Pilot, you know, throughout the late nineties and early two thousands.

然后八九年之后，苹果iPhone一代横空出世，把他们的全部生意都抢走了。

And then eight or nine years later, here comes the Apple iPhone one and just took all the business away from them.

苹果正试图重现这种心态。

And Apple is trying to recreate that kind of mentality.

让其他人自相残杀吧。

Oh, let the rest of them kill themselves.

我们等到2029年或2030年再出现，用AI让你大吃一惊，把所有东西都从他们手里夺走。

We'll show up in 2029 or 2030 and we'll wow your socks off what we'll do with AI, we'll take it all away from them.

我认为市场在说：你确实用iPhone做到了，但我认为你用AI做不到。

And I think the market is saying, you did it with the iPhone, but I don't think you could do it with AI.

这就是为什么苹果股价和对苹果的批评正在上升的原因。

And that's why Apple stock and Apple's, know, the criticism of Apple is coming in.

所以我理解这些公司为什么这么做，因为根本没有第二名。

So I understand why these companies are doing it because there is no second place.

你必须努力成为赢家，我们必须不断前进，直到投入的经费超过俄罗斯军费，只为赢得这场正在进行的比赛，因为如果我们不这么做，我们就什么都没有了。

You've got to try and be the winner here, and we have to keep going and going until we're spending more than the Russian military in order to try and win this this match that we're doing right now because there there is nothing left for us if we don't.

你认为这对标普500指数中资产的公平分配意味着什么？

What do you think that means for the just distribution of assets in the, like, S and P 500, for example?

比如，在过去三年里，据我理解，趋势是标普500指数越来越集中在少数几家公司身上。

Like, over the last three years, as I have understood it, the trend has been to a concentration of the S and P 500 in a very low number of companies.

比如，在英伟达、亚马逊、微软之后，标普500指数的其余公司加起来只占很小一部分。

Like, after after Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, like, the rest of the S and P 500 is only making up something.

只占整体的很小比例。

Some of this much smaller percentage of the total thing.

如果你认为所有这些资本支出和相关投入的价值最终会流向使用这些产品的长尾企业，那么你认为这种趋势会逆转吗？

Do you think that trend reverses if we think that the value of all of this CapEx spending and all of this stuff goes to the businesses, the long tail using these products, that's where the value accrues.

你觉得标普500指数中那些较小的公司会比头部公司增长得更强劲？

You think the tail end of the S and P 500 has outsized growth versus the fat end?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这种逆转已经开始了。

I think it's already starting it's already starting to reverse.

你说得对。

You're right.

如果我们回溯到去年夏天或初秋，我当时展示的数据表明，人工智能和人工智能相关公司，或者如果你把一些能源公司也算进去，它们的市值占了股市的50%。

If we were to back up to last summer, early fall, even I was showing the statistics that AI and AI related companies, or call it AI adjacent if you throw in some of the energy companies, was like 50% of the stock markets capitalization.

当时有一半的股市都以某种方式与人工智能相关，人们担心，一旦这一趋势见顶回落，整个市场都会随之下跌。

Half the stock market was involved in AI to some degree or another and the fear was if that ever peaks and goes down, it's gonna take the whole market down with it.

这是一个合理的担忧。

And that was a valid concern.

我也曾持有这种担忧。

And I shared that concern too.

现在这种情况正在部分发生，尤其是如果你把SaaS股票也考虑进去的话。

That's somewhat happening right now, especially if you throw in the SaaS stocks with it as well.

但股市并没有下跌。

But the market isn't going down.

现在市场非常波动，但仍在高位附近盘整，因为我们没有预料到的是，股市中另外那50%的公司也会从中受益，并且随着人工智能及相关公司市值萎缩或停滞，它们的价值反而大幅增长。

Now it's very volatile and it's kind of holding near its highs because what we didn't anticipate was the other 50% of the stock market was gonna benefit from it and that they were going to swell in value as these AI related companies, AI adjacent companies shrunk or at least stalled in value.

因此，我们开始看到股市出现了这种情况。

And so that's what we've started to see happen with the stock market.

所以目前它仍然保持稳定，比如Salesforce从高点下跌了50%，Cloudflare也举步维艰，但你看罗素2000指数、中型股，它们却在上涨，某种程度上抵消了跌幅，使得股市总价值大致保持不变。

So it's holding up for now in terms of, yeah, you know, the Salesforce is down 50% from its high, the CloudFare is struggling and everything else, but look at the Russell two thousand, look at the mid cap, it's going up and it's kind of offsetting it so that the total value in the stock market is roughly unchanged.

真正推动市场波动的，只是资金来源的构成变化。

It's just a mixture of where it's coming from is really what's chasing it around.

所以投资QQQ（纳斯达克100指数）的人情绪低迷，而传统价值投资者却很高兴，因为这两者在相互抵消。

So people that invest in QQQ, the Nasdaq one hundred are very long faced and traditional value investors are very happy faced because the you know, but the they're kind of offsetting each other.

我完全没料到会出现这么大的对冲效应。

That I didn't have on my bingo card that there would be this giant offset.

我想也没多少人会在他们的‘宾果卡’上想到这一点。

I don't think many other people had that on their bingo card either.

他们以为，一旦AI热潮见顶回落，就会拖垮整个市场。

They thought, man, when this AI thing peaks and goes, it's gonna take everything down with it.

但目前来看，并没有发生。

But for the moment, it isn't.

现在这种情况可能会改变，但目前看来并不是这样运作的。

Now maybe that changes, but it doesn't seem to be working that way.

所以吉姆，正如你所知，大卫和我都在向你倾倒我们所有关于市场不合理之处的问题。

So Jim, as you could tell, both David and I are just unloading all of our questions on you where areas where the market doesn't make sense.

我想再回到贵金属和波动性的话题上。

And I I wanna move back to precious metals again and the volatility.

你提到这些贵金属价格上涨的一个重要原因来自亚洲的购买，尤其是中国。

And and you mentioned that a big reason for the increase in some of these precious metals has been Asia buying, in particular, maybe China.

但我有一个问题，有些地方我不太明白。

But I have a I have a question, something I don't understand.

这一点在我理解黄金时是有道理的。

That makes sense to me with respect to gold.

明白吗？

Okay?

中国央行，一种硬资产。

So Chinese Central Bank, a hard asset.

黄金和我们长期以来所讲述和观察的加密货币故事非常相似。

Gold is very similar to kind of the the crypto story that we've been telling and and looking at for quite some time.

那白银呢？

Why silver?

好的。

Okay.

地球上有没有哪个经济体正在向银本位制迈进？还是说，这就像加密货币中的情况：有一个主导资产，然后有一系列能够追赶它的山寨币？

Is is there any economy on the planet that is moving in the direction of a silver standard, or is this sort of an effect that we've seen in crypto where you have sort of a a leader, you know, a a main asset, and then you have kind of the the altcoin that can catch up to it.

我不明白，为什么白银现在的价值高达4万亿美元。

I don't understand why silver is worth, like, $4,000,000,000,000 right now.

是的。

Yes.

确实是这样。

It is.

我们并不会回到金银复本位制。

You know, we're not going bimetal.

你知道，美国在19世纪90年代左右曾短暂考虑过这个想法，比如那场‘金十字架’演讲，但白银确实是穷人的黄金，你说得完全对。

You know, The US flirted with that idea about the 1890s and stuff like that, you know, with the cross of gold speech, but it is the poor man's gold, silver, and it is you got it exactly right.

这就像比特币上涨时，其他山寨币跟着涨；或者以太坊上涨时，其他山寨币也跟着涨。

It's kinda like Bitcoin goes and the altcoins follow or ETH goes and the alt coins follow.

所以白银就像是那个落后的山寨币。

So it is the off alt coin is falling.

因此，白银也是它的高贝塔版本。

And that's why silver is a higher beta version of it too.

对吧？

Right?

所以当它上涨时，不仅仅是跟随黄金，

So when it goes, it just doesn't follow gold.

而是表现得更好。

It outperforms it.

而当行情见顶时，它就会崩盘。

And then when the peak is in, it collapses.

它并不是简单地跟你一起上下波动。

It just doesn't, you know, it it doesn't you just go up and down with it.

我的意思是，价格走势上可能有关联，但价格本身并不一样。

I mean, it might be correlated in price movement, but it's not in terms of price.

所以我认为白银也出现了这种情况。

And so that's where I think you've seen that happen with silver as well.

别自欺欺人了。

So, and there's a lot of don't don't kid yourself.

你们比我还懂，因为你们在加密货币领域。

You guys know better than me because of the you're in the crypto space.

世界上有很多投机者的心态。

There's a lot of degen mentality out there in the world.

你知道的。

You know?

我得买黄金来保护自己，天哪。

I gotta buy gold to protect myself by, oh, man.

看看白银现在的表现。

Look at what silver's doing.

也许我们应该改买白银。

Maybe we should buy that instead.

这就是你看到大量资金流向的地方。

And that's where you've seen a lot of that going.

但要强调的是，我认为这场运动的根源在于中国经济正在挣扎。

But to emphasize, I think the genesis of the movement was that the Chinese economy is struggling.

中国经济面临着严重的房地产问题。

The Chinese economy has got a terrible real estate problem.

中国投资者开始意识到中国经济存在诸多问题。

Chinese investors are starting to see that there are problems in the Chinese economy.

他们正在寻求保护自己，并思考：我该怎么办？

They're looking to protect themselves and they're saying, what should I do?

他们购买比特币或其他加密货币的问题在于，你知道，政府已经禁止他们购买多少次了？

Problem with them buying Bitcoin or any other crypto is, know, I mean, how many times has the government banned them from buying it?

他们不断想办法绕过限制，但黄金和白银对他们来说仍然是一个可行的选择。

And they keep, you know, they keep finding ways around it, but gold and silver are still a viable option for them.

我认为如果再加上日本的情况，因为他们的利率正在急剧飙升，绝对是急剧飙升。

And I think then if you throw in Japan too, because their interest rates have been surging, absolutely surging.

因为五十年来首次，日本的通胀率超过了美国。

Because for the first time in fifty years, Japan has a higher inflation rate than The US.

所以这就是为什么他们的利率正在急剧飙升。

And so that's why their interest rates are surging.

华尔街有一句老话，适用于全球：当利率快速而剧烈地上升时，总会有什么地方崩溃。

And there's an old line on Wall Street that applies around the world that when interest rates go up fast and hard, something breaks.

人们确实担心，日本利率的这一波急剧上涨会击垮某个环节。

And there's a real fear that that giant surge of interest rates in Japan will break something.

到目前为止还没发生，但我们也还没结束这波上涨。

It hasn't yet, but we're also not done with the surge either.

因此，你可能也看到大量来自日本的购买行为。

And so you're probably seeing a lot of buying coming out of Japan as well too.

然后你还要加上越南、印度尼西亚、马来西亚，也许还包括韩国。

And then you want to throw in Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, maybe Korea as well too.

我认为这场金银牛市正是从这里开始的。

And that's where I think the Genesis of this gold and silver rally began.

而且，你知道，美国和欧洲有不少趋势追随者看到了这一趋势，纷纷入场，可能助推了价格达到疯狂的高点，但他们并不是最初的推动者。

And, you know, there there was a bunch of momentum followers in The US and in Europe that saw it, jumped on it, probably helped push it to the insane peaks that it got to, but they didn't begin with they didn't start it.

它起源于亚洲。

It started out of Asia.

你之前说过你对中国经济增长持看跌态度，但刚才你又提到了中国房地产市场，这当然是众所周知的。

You said earlier you were bearish on the Chinese economy, and then you just said there, Chinese real estate market, of course, that is, you know, very much known.

然而，目前市场上确实存在一种看涨中国宏观经济的观点，这也与你在本集中表现出的乐观情绪有关，那就是人工智能。

However, there is definitely a bull case in the air about the Chinese economy that also has to do with some of your bullishness in this episode, which is AI.

中国确实是一个制造超级枢纽。

And China indeed is a a manufacturing super hub.

他们能够运用人工智能，并且正在开发出一些全球最优秀的开源AI模型。

They can use AI, and they're coming up with some of the best open source model AI models out there.

他们可以将这一点应用于制造业。

They can apply that to manufacturing.

他们可以将这一点应用于机器人技术。

They can apply that to robotics.

朋友诺亚·史密斯谈到了电力技术栈，这可以说是未来每个现代工业超级大国的核心。

Friend Noah Smith has talked about the electric tech stack, which is sort of the future of every modern industrial, you know, superstate.

而他们在这一点上优势十足。

And they have that ability in spades.

他们拥有

They have

庞大的电网和巨大的能源生产能力。

a massive electricity grid, massive energy production.

看来他们在这个新时代中实际上处于非常有利的位置。

It seems like they're actually pretty well positioned for this new era.

所以，你到底是看涨还是看跌呢？

So why are you bullish or bearish, I should say?

是的。

They yes.

这都是真的。

That is all true.

但他们还有另外两个大问题。

But they also have two other big problems too.

他们面临很大的政治风险，也有激烈的竞争。

They have a lot of political risk and they have a lot of competition.

所以，无论你对中国的看法如何，对越南和印度在某种程度上也可以这么说。

So whatever you could say about China, you could say it about Vietnam, you could say it about India to some degree as well too.

我认为真正让每个人都感到焦虑的巨大变化是政治风险。

And I think the big change that's really causing every everybody some angst is the political risk.

让我们回到2022年11月。

Let's go back to November 2022.

那时中国正处于清零政策的中期。

That was the middle of zero COVID in China.

我来给你讲一个关于中国清零政策的简短例子。

Just to give you a quick anecdote about this Zero COVID in China.

大家都明白当时在中国发生的事情。

So everybody understands what was going on in China.

你不被允许离开家门。

You were not allowed to leave your house home.

大多数人住在公寓里。

Most people live in apartments.

政府会把你的公寓门焊死。

The government would weld the door shut of your apartment.

你不被允许外出。

You were not allowed to leave.

他们会给你送来生活必需品。

They would bring you necessities.

但通常他们做得非常差。

And usually they were very poor at doing that.

你们的食物不够吃。

You weren't getting enough food.

你们的必需品供应不足。

You weren't getting enough necessities.

有一栋楼发生了火灾，消防队没能及时赶到，人们因为零新冠政策而被锁在门内，拼命拍打门板，结果很多人死在楼里，这引发了中国所谓的白纸革命。

There was a fire in one of these buildings and the fire brigade didn't get there fast enough and people were beating on the on the door that was welded shut because of zero COVID and a lot of people died in the building and it sparked what was called the white paper revolution in China.

对此有很多抗议活动。

And there was a lot of protest about that.

我们受够了零新冠政策。

We've had it with zero COVID.

这些抗议蔓延到了富士康工厂车间，那里生产iPhone。中国警方对富士康工厂里要求结束零新冠政策的抗议者的回应是：冲进去殴打抗议者，而富士康每天都要清理地上的血迹，继续招人进来。

Those protests went to the Foxconn factory floor where they made the iPhone and the answer that the Chinese police had to the protest about we want to end zero covid on the Foxconn factory floor was they came in they beat the protesters on the floor and the Foxconn was wiping up the blood every day and getting more people in there.

我们不能停止iPhone的生产。

We can't stop iPhone production.

你无法想象这给蒂姆·库克带来了多么尴尬的处境——突然间，人们在生产iPhone的车间里被殴打，这促使苹果公司表示：我们必须离开中国，现在他们正尽可能地将生产转移到印度。

You can't imagine what an uncomfortable position this put Tim Cook in that, you know, all of a sudden we've got people being beaten on the floor where they're making iPhones and that prompted Apple to say, we got to get out of China and they're now starting to move their production to India as far as they can.

所以中国现在面临着巨大的政治风险。

So there's huge political risk in China right now.

他们的经济每年增长百分之四到五。

Their economy is growing at four or 5% a year.

这些都是官方数据。

Those are official numbers.

这些数字很可能被夸大了，因为它们是官方公布的。

Those numbers are probably goosed because they're official numbers.

但即使这些是官方数据，如果剔除新冠封锁和重启的影响，中国的经济增长率也达到了五十年来的最低水平，因为中国大部分经济仍依赖传统制造业，必须与越南、印度尼西亚以及整个东南亚地区的低成本选项竞争。

But even if they are official numbers and you take out the COVID shutdown and restart, those are fifty year lows in terms of economic growth coming out of China because most of the Chinese economy is still traditional manufacturing and it has to compete with lower cost options of Vietnam, Indonesia, the rest of Southern Asia as well.

此外，现在中国还面临着政治风险，而印度则在一旁挥舞着手臂说：你知道吗？

And on top of that, now you've got the political risk that's going on with China and India's waving their arm over here going, you know what?

我们实际上已经更大了。

We're actually now bigger.

我不知道你们是否知道，但印度现在已经超过中国，成为世界上人口最多的国家。

I don't know if you guys knew that, but India had now surpassed China as the largest population country in the world.

而且他们绝大多数人口都讲英语，而中国并非如此。

And the vast majority of their population speaks English where it doesn't in China.

他们至少是民主国家，而中国不是民主国家。

And they're at least a democracy where China is not a democracy.

所以中国也有一些优势。

So China has some things going for it.

你说得对。

You're right.

开源软件，广东有一些非常优秀和智能的制造设施，就在香港对面。

Open source software, some really good and smart manufacturing facilities in Guangdong, which is just over Hong Kong as well.

但它也存在政治风险。

But it also has political risk.

不仅仅是我之前提到的iPhone工厂发生的事，还有李俊（Jimmy Lee）刚刚被判了二十年监禁。

Not only the story I gave about what happened on the iPhone floor, but Jimmy Lee was just sentenced to twenty years in prison.

他撰写苹果新闻，并且是中国政府在香港所做所为的强烈批评者。

He wrote Apple news and he was a big critic of what the Chinese government was doing in Hong Kong.

他最初被单独监禁，窗户被木板封死，持续了五年，随后才宣布他将被判处二十年监禁。

And he was first put in solitary confinement with boarded up windows for five years and then was announced that he was going to go to jail for twenty years.

他今年78岁了，仅仅因为敢于批评政府就落得如此下场。

He's 78 years old all because he dared to criticize the government.

因此，这也是他们所面临的政治风险。

So that's the political risk that they face as well too.

这就是为什么我对他们持悲观态度，因为他们需要开放。

And that's why I'm bearish on them because they need to open up.

他们必须这么做。

They need to do it.

但在习近平领导下，他们几乎每天都在变得更加专制。

But instead under Xi, they're getting to be more authoritarian almost by the day.

因此，这将严重限制他们在这些领域竞争的能力。

And so it's going to give them a big limit as to how much they can compete in this stuff.

你对特朗普让美国退出主导世界秩序怎么看？

What do you think about Trump's pulling back from America being the dominant world order?

你认为这对中国的选项有什么影响？

What do you think that does for China's options?

由于特朗普的政治选择，中国现在比以前有了更多的选择吗？

Does China now have more options than it did previous due to Trump's political choices?

我不认为他是在退出现有的政治秩序。

I don't think that's necessarily what he's doing is pulling back from the political order.

我想回到JD·万斯今年二月在慕尼黑会议上的演讲，用我自己的话来总结一下。

I'll go back to JD Vance's speech to the Munich conference in February, and I'll summarize it in my words.

在过去五六十多年里，我们美国在国防上的支出比欧洲多出了近2万亿美元。

Over the last fifty or sixty years, we in The US have spent nearly $20,000,000,000,000 more on defense than you Europe has spent on defense.

你们享受着我们在全球提供的安全保护伞，而你们没有把钱花在国防上，反而为本国经济提供了免费医疗，并建成了我们无法同时实现的庞大公共基础设施和安全保障。

You have enjoyed the umbrella of our security around the world And what you did instead of spending that money on defense is you've given your economies free healthcare and you've wind up having big public sector infrastructure that we couldn't do and provide security at the same time.

所以他们的观点是，现在该你们承担责任、自己多出力了。

So what they're arguing is it's time you step up and start taking your load.

我认为催化剂是也门的胡塞武装阻断了红海的航运。

And I think the catalyst was the Houthis in Yemen were blocking shipping in the Red Sea.

所以大家都明白了。

And so everybody understands.

因此，胡塞武装基本上用胶带、割草机引擎和200磅炸药组装了价值5万美元的无人机，向商船发射，而欧洲人却对此无能为力。

So Houthis were basically putting together these $50,000 drones with duct tape and lawnmower engines and 200 pounds of explosives and shooting them at commercial shipping and the Europeans couldn't do anything about it.

他们根本做不了什么，因为他们的军队已经衰退到无法应对的地步。

They could not do anything about they were in their their militaries had degraded to such a point that they were incapable of doing it.

现在，美国最终在2025年前后逐渐控制了局势，红海的航运也部分恢复了。

Now The US, eventually through 2025, kinda got the situation under control there, and shipping is reopened to some degree in the Red Sea.

此外，以色列与加沙的协议也起到了作用。

And also the Gaza deal with Israel also helped as well too.

但这简直让人觉得：你们怎么能一边让我们继续在国防上花费数万亿美元，一边却大力推动绿色倡议、免费医疗，还对我们指手画脚，说我们这儿那儿都做错了？

But that was kind of like, man, you guys are you you you can't just let us continue to spend trillions of dollars on defense while you keep pushing green initiatives, free healthcare, and lecture us on everything you do wrong.

所以现在是时候你们自己站出来，增加在这方面的投入了。

So it's time you start taking up the mantle and start spending more money on it.

但特朗普的问题在于，如果你读一读特朗普的主张，比如我写下一条‘特朗普政策’：格陵兰，然后问你，他想在格陵兰做什么？

Now the problem with Trump is if you read what Trump if I was to say, here's a Trump policy, Greenland, and I was to write it down on a piece of paper, and I said, what does he wanna do in Greenland?

俄罗斯和中国正在那里开采稀土，格陵兰具有一定的军事战略优势，我们应该把他们赶走。

Well, Russia and China are there mining from rare earths, and there's some military strategic advantages to being in Greenland, we should get them out.

我认为就连欧洲人也会同意这一点。

I think even the Europeans would agree with that.

但特朗普打算怎么做呢？

But how does Trump go about doing that?

我们要接管这个国家。

Oh, we're gonna take over the country.

我们要入侵这个国家。

We're gonna invade the country.

我们要向丹麦买下它。

We're gonna buy it from Denmark.

他做任何事都极端到极致，就像对待加拿大那样。

He goes to eleven in everything he wants to do, kind of like Canada.

加拿大，他一直抱怨说，由于全球变暖，加拿大北部出现了穿过加拿大水域的通航航道。

Canada, he's been complaining that because of global warming, there's open shipping lanes to the North Of Canada that runs through Canadian waters.

中国和俄罗斯的军舰直接从那里穿过。

The Chinese and the Russians run warships right through it.

他说，我们必须阻止这种行为。

And he's saying, we gotta stop this.

好的。

Okay.

我认为甚至加拿大人都会同意。

I think even the even the Canadians agree.

但特朗普如何决定我们需要阻止这种行为呢？

But how does Trump decide that we need to stop this?

他称加拿大总督为领导人，想让加拿大成为第51个州。

Calls him the governor of Canada, wants to make it the fifty first state.

他在很多这类事情上都直接升级到极致。

He goes immediately to eleven on a lot of this stuff.

所以我提到这一点，是因为我认为他并不是想把加拿大推向中国，或者试图破坏这种关系。

So the reason I bring this up is I don't think he's trying to push them towards China or trying to fracture the relationship.

他试图让这一切更加公平。

He's trying to make it more equitable.

但通过这种方式，他以特朗普式的方法把事情推到极致，强迫大家接受更公平的方案，却惹恼了所有人。

But by doing that, he's doing it in the Trumpian way by going to 11 to force you to wind up making more equitable and rubbing everybody the wrong way.

现在有两种观点可以阐述。

Now there's two arguments to be made.

一种观点是，你这样做是错的，只是在激怒所有人。

You're doing it wrong and you're just pissing everybody off could be one argument.

但另一种观点是，斯科特·巴斯ett也提出过类似看法。

But the other argument is Scott Bassett's argued this too.

如果我们以温和的方式处理，结果只会是谈上两年，再成立一个工作组继续讨论五年。

If we did it the nice way, all we would do is talk for two years and then put together a working group to discuss it for five more years.

而我们并不想这样。

And we don't want to do that.

我们希望这一切能发生改变。

We want this to change.

所以我们可能需要稍微强硬一点，才能推动欧洲人做出这些改变。

So maybe we have to be a bit abrasive to get these changes with the Europeans.

我也理解这个观点。

I understand that argument too.

所以我要告诉你，我现在对这件事我们应该走向何方还处于中间立场，但我认为最终结果并没有人们描绘得那么灾难性。

So I'm gonna tell you, I'm really in the middle on where we should be going with this thing right now, but I don't think at the end of the day that it is as catastrophic as it's being painted to be.

我认为欧洲人完全明白他想要什么，但他们就是不愿意做，只想尽量减少国防开支。

I think the Europeans understand exactly what he wants, and they just don't wanna do it, and they wanna try and get away with less defense spending.

或者以西班牙为例，他们想说，是的，我们会增加国防开支，但我们会把这笔钱算作网络安全和绿色倡议。

Or in the case of the Spanish, they wanna say, yeah, we'll spend more on defense, but we'll call that cybersecurity and green initiatives.

这些都属于国防开支的一部分。

That's all part of defense and stuff.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不行。

No.

防御意味着组建军队和购买武器。

Defense means raising an army and buying weapons.

这就是防御的含义。

That's what defense means.

然后用它们向全球投射力量，因为自从二战结束以来，我们一直就是这样做的。

And then using them to project your power around the world because that's what we've done since the end of World War two.

现在是时候开始承担起这份责任了。

And it's time that you start taking up that load.

所以下次胡塞武装决定要封锁航运时，你们去解决它。

So the next time the Houthis decide that they wanna shut down shipping, you fix it.

我们不必去解决每一个这样的问题。

We don't have to go in and fix every one of these problems.

这最终是他想要达成的目标。

That's ultimately where he wants to go with this.

吉姆，正如大卫提到的，上周我们经历了近十年来加密货币表现第四糟糕的一天。

We had the fourth worst day this decade in crypto last week as well, Jim, as David mentioned.

而特别奇怪的是，当时没有任何明显的崩盘事件发生。

And what was incredibly odd about this is there was nothing visible that broke.

于是你发了这条推文，说这是近十年来第四糟糕的一天。

So you put out this tweet saying it's the the fourth worst day this decade.

事实上，它可能已经升到了第三糟糕的位置。

In fact, it may have actually graduated to number three.

其他更糟糕的日子是FTX破产的时候。

The the other worst days were the FTX failure.

那是在2022年11月。

That was in November 2022.

Terra Luna崩盘。

Terra Luna collapse.

那也是2022年。

That was 2022.

还有2020年的新冠疫情封锁。

And the COVID shutdown twenty twenty.

这次，似乎并没有发生什么糟糕的事情。

This time, it didn't seem like anything terrible was happening.

所以这就引发了一个问题：有什么东西崩溃了吗？是什么崩溃了？

And so there's a question of, like, did something break and what broke?

我想把这个和你提到的另一个观点联系起来，那就是合成比特币的概念。

I wanna link this to another idea that you've talked about, which is the idea of synthetic Bitcoin.

比如，我看到像亚瑟·海斯这样的人谈论过，现在加密资产，尤其是比特币，已经成为一种传统金融资产。

Like, people I've seen people like Arthur Hayes talk about this, which is like, now crypto assets, in particular Bitcoin, is a traditional finance asset.

有一只iBIT比特币ETF，拥有巨大的流动性。

There's an iBIT ETF, has a massive amount of liquidity.

因此，这种崩溃可能发生在链下，在传统金融领域，而加密货币对此的可见度较低。

And so some of this breaking could have happened off chain in TradFi world where crypto has less visibility.

合成比特币的概念背后是什么？

What is the idea behind synthetic Bitcoin?

所以，我想知道，你如何看待上周加密货币经历了有史以来第三糟糕的一天？

And, like, I guess, what's your take on why crypto had its third worst day ever last week?

我认为它们在某种程度上是相关的。

I think they're somewhat related.

我们都说比特币等加密货币是通缩的，也是硬通货。

So we all talk about that Bitcoin crypto, know, East is deflationary as well is hard money.

你无法印制它。

You can't print it.

没错，你说得对。

No, you're right.

在链上你无法印制它。

You can't print it on chain.

在链上你无法创建超过2100万枚比特币，但在链下，我们实际上已经围绕比特币建立了一个部分准备金体系。

You can't create more than 21,000,000 Bitcoin on chain, but off chain, what we've effectively done is we've created like a fractional reserve system around Bitcoin.

我们有ETF，还有像一些策略在传统金融市场借贷来购买比特币。

So we've got the ETFs, we've got borrowing by say strategy that's been borrowing in the trad find markets to buy Bitcoin.

我们还有与ETF挂钩的结构性产品，而ETF又与底层的比特币挂钩。

We've got structured products that are tied to the ETFs, which is tied to the underlying Bitcoin.

因此，我们正在创造数千亿美元的加密货币购买行为，这些行为并不在链上。

So what we're doing is we're creating many, many billions of dollars of crypto buying that is not on chain.

这就像我们所说的纸黄金市场、纸白银市场与实物市场之间的区别。

It's not unlike what we call the paper gold market, the paper silver market versus the the physical market as well.

这就像我们在股票市场中所做的那样，那里有衍生品、期权、期货和总收益互换等工具。

It's not unlike what we do with the stock market where we have derivatives options and futures and total return swaps and the like in in in those markets as well.

加密货币的不同之处在于它还很新。

The difference is with crypto is it's new.

而这种杠杆放大并创造更多合成供应的准备金制度，其历史是怎样的呢？

And the history of fractional reserve systems like that where you're basically leveraging yourself up and kind of creating more synthetic supply.

我之所以称之为合成供应，是因为它并不在链上。

And the reason I say synthetic supply was it's not on chain supply.

它只是镜像了链上供应，但这些系统——这些加密货币或准备金制度——本质上是不稳定的。

It just mirrors the on chain supply is that these systems are inherently These crypto or these fractional reserve systems are inherently unstable.

因此，在数百年的银行业发展中，我们设立了美联储、联邦存款保险公司、货币监理署、财政部、证券交易委员会、商品期货交易委员会等多重监管机构，目的是为了应对这种极不稳定的体系，防止它崩溃。

That's why over hundreds of years with banking, we've got the Fed, the FDIC, the OCC, the Treasury, the SEC, the CFTC, we got to have these overlapping regulators to take this very unstable system and try and hold it from blowing up.

我们经历了几代人的错误和市场崩盘，从中吸取教训并不断调整。

And we've got generations that we've kind of made mistakes, have had blowups in these markets, learn from them, and adjust it.

加密货币在这个合成资产的领域是全新的。

Crypto is new with this kind of synthetic stuff.

我认为真正大规模推动这一变化的催化剂是，没错，我们长期以来一直有加密交易所和中心化交易所提供的期货和期权。

And it I think the real catalyst for this in a big way was yes, we had futures and options, you know, from the crypto exchanges, from the centralized exchanges forever.

就像全球的币安这样的平台。

It's like the Binance's of the world.

但真正改变局面的是ETF中的数字资产金库。

But what really changed was these digital asset treasuries in the ETFs.

现在，加密货币在传统金融世界中有了自己的代表。

And now you've got a representation of crypto in the TradFi world.

现在，我们可以在这些产品上推出期权、期货和总收益互换。

Now we could put options on that futures on that total return swaps on that.

我们可以为此借入结构性票据。

We could borrow structured notes on that.

有数十亿、数百亿甚至数千亿美元的资金投入了加密货币交易，却从未接触过区块链。

And we've got billions and billions and billions of dollars of people that are invested in playing crypto and never touching on chain.

因此，当市场开始崩盘时，我认为是合成市场率先崩溃了。

And so when the market started to crack, I think it was the synthetic markets that cracked.

所以我会

So I would

认为是传统金融领域的合成市场。

argue The that TradFi synthetic markets.

传统金融领域的合成市场才是最先开始崩溃的。

The TradFi synthetic markets is what started to crack.

这导致了大量清算出现在链上，这就是为什么基础市场价格下跌的原因。

And that was pushing a lot of liquidation that was showing up on chain, which is why the underlying markets were going lower.

你知道，因为我试图回应的是，人们对我说：是的，但我们长期以来一直对黄金和白银这么做。

You know, because what I'm trying to address is people said to me, yeah, but we've done this forever with gold and silver.

是的。

Yes.

在我们学会控制这些市场之前，它们被爆破过多少次了？

And how many times have we blown those markets up over and over before we kind of learn to kind of keep it in check?

对于加密货币来说，这些传统金融合成市场是全新的。

This is new for crypto, these TradFi synthetic markets.

所以这是一个学习过程，我们正在经历这个学习过程。

And so that's a learning process, we're going through a learning process.

1982年，我们开始推出标普500指数期货。

In 1982, we started in with futures on the indexes in the S and P 500.

价值线指数是第一个。

The value line index was the first one.

道琼斯指数后来也加入了，其余的也陆续跟进。

The Dow eventually came in the rest.

1987年，股市单日暴跌22%，因为这些创造合成股票头寸的新工具，我们还没有完全理解它们所蕴含的风险。

In 1987, the stock market crashed 22 in a day because these new tools that created synthetic stock positions, we didn't quite fully grasp the risks that they were having.

我们经历过一次股市崩盘。

We had a stock market crash.

我们现在正以类似的方式对待加密货币，比特币从10月高点下跌了50%。

We kind of are doing that right now with crypto from going down 50% from the October high in Bitcoin as well.

那么，我们这样做本质上就是坏事吗？

So is it inherently bad that we're doing this?

这取决于你的观点。

It depends on your point of view.

有些人会认为，我们这样做本质上并不坏。

You know, some people would argue, no, it's not inherently bad that we're doing this.

它让其他人也能参与进来。

It it opens it up to other people.

纯粹主义者会说，Maxis会说，不。

Purists would say Maxis would say, no.

只有一种方式拥有比特币，那就是链上持有。

We there's only one way to own Bitcoin, and that's on chain.

如果你没有链上持有，那就真的不算拥有。

And if you don't own it on chain, you don't really own it.

这也是‘不是你的密钥，就不是你的加密货币’这种观点的体现。

Not your keys, not your crypto kind of argument as well.

但更大的问题是，当你进入这些本质上不稳定的杠杆体系时，换个说法就是杠杆。

But the bigger issue is when you go to these inherently unstable fracture reserve system, another way say is leverage.

当你进入这些本质上不稳定的杠杆体系时，如果没有相关经验，它有时会变得不稳定，甚至彻底崩盘。

When you go to these inherently unstable leverage systems, unless you've got some experience with it, it's going to get unstable for you at times and it's going to blow up.

过去几个月里，我们可能正在目睹这种局面的展开，或者已经看到了它的发生。

And we might be seeing that kind of unfolding or have seen that unfold over the last several months.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这很好地解释了正在发生的事情，以及为什么会出现如此巨大的波动——这在某种程度上出人意料，因为它与我们之前听到的叙事相悖：一旦传统金融进入，市场就会稳定下来。

I think that's a good explanation for like what's happening and why there is this massive volatility is somewhat unexpected because this is runs counter to the narrative that we've heard, which is once TradFi enters, things will stabilize.

他们会因为像ETF这样的工具中采用纪律性的定投策略，而让加密货币的波动性降低，对吧？

They'll get less volatile in crypto, right, because you have disciplined dollar cost averaging in these instruments like the ETF.

那我们看到了什么？

And what are we seeing?

我们看到了巨大的波动性。

We're seeing massive amounts of volatility.

但我想问你一下

But I wanna ask you if

你能快速补充一下吗？这个观点其实是对的，但它有一个前提假设。

what you can give jump in on that real quick and just say that argument was correct, but it had an assumption.

传统金融将直接购买链上资产，或仅隔一层的链上资产。

TradFi is going to buy directly that either on chain or one hop from on chain.

他们会购买ETF或数字资产资产负债表公司，这些公司会在链上代表他们的头寸。

Gonna buy an ETF or digital asset treasury company that will then represent their position on chain.

但传统金融实际上做的，是远离了三到四个层级，通过购买ETF的期权来参与。

What TradFi wound up doing was getting three or four levels removed from it by buying options on ETFs.

他们购买的是基于ETF的期货期权，或基于期权的期货，或是基于数字资产资产负债表公司的可转换债券的结构性产品，而正是从这时起，系统开始变得内在不稳定。

They are buying futures on options on or options on futures on ETF or structured products on ETFs that are on digital digital asset treasuries that they were gonna buy options on the convertible bonds of the of the digital asset treasury like strategy, and that's when things started to get inherently unstable.

你是在说

You're telling

他们是一群赌徒。

me they're bunch of degens.

他们和我们一样都是一群赌徒。

They're a bunch of degens just like us.

听起来他们并不这么认为。

Sounds like they don't.

但别称他们为赌徒。

But don't call them degens.

别称他们为赌徒。

Don't call them degens, though.

打出来：赌徒。

Type that out degens.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

好吧，专业的退化者。

Well Professional degens.

你觉得

What do you

加密货币接下来会怎样？

think is next for crypto?

你认为那是恐慌性抛售事件吗，还是说还有更多痛苦要来？

Do you think that was the capitulation event or do you think there's more pain to come?

然后加密货币如何重建、反弹？

And then how does crypto rebuild, rebound?

未来会怎样？2026年加密货币价格的故事是什么？

What's the future and what's the story with crypto prices in 2026?

我认为，我们之前推动价格在10月25日达到高点的叙事是采用叙事。

I think this the the narrative that we had that went into the high in October 25 was the adoption narrative.

数字资产储备型ETF来了，婴儿潮一代都要进场了，人人都会来

Digital asset treasury ETFs, here come the boomers, everybody's gonna come

进去，你们会说要买贝莱德。

in There you and they're say gonna buy Blackrock.

对，没错。

Right, exactly.

所有这些都属于采用叙事。

All of that was the adoption narrative.

现在，我认为采用叙事实际上在11月24日大选后那波大涨至10万美元时就已经结束了，随后动能减弱，我们在10月25日达到12.6万，然后就彻底疲软了。

Now, I actually think the adoption narrative was ended around that big surge after the election in November 24 to a 100,000 and momentum waned and then we got to a 126 in October 25 and then we we crapped out as well.

我认为现在的采用故事已经结束了。

I think that that adoption story is over right now.

就像之前的DeFi夏天故事一样，上一个周期也已经结束了。

Just like the DeFi summer story, the cycle before is over now.

所以加密货币需要一个新的叙事，我仍然认为比特币有机会涨到一百万，以太坊有机会涨到两万，以下是实现方式。

So crypto needs another narrative and I still think there's a chance you can get Bitcoin to a million, you can get ETH to 20,000 and here's how you do it.

下一个叙事应该是谈论替代，而不是谈论许可。

The next narrative has to be instead of having permission, talk about replacement.

你们一直都在谈论无银行体系。

You guys talk about bankless all the time.

让我们回到这个话题。

So let's get back to that.

你的播客叫作《无银行体系》。

Your podcast is called Bankless.

让我们回到这个话题。

Let's get back to that.

不要说每个人都想要许可，拉里·芬克给了我们许可。

Instead of saying everybody wants permission, Larry Fink has given us permission.

杰伊·鲍威尔给了我们许可。

Jay Powell has given us permission.

唐纳德·特朗普给了我们许可。

Donald Trump has given us permission.

他们通过了天才法案。

They passed the Genius Act.

他们希望最终能出台清晰法案，让我们有权购买比特币。

They're going to hopefully work out the Clarity Act that gives us permission to buy it.

这个故事已经结束了。

That story's over.

下一个故事是替代。

The next story is replacement.

别等着拉里·芬克告诉你你没问题，比特币会涨到70万美元。

Don't wait for Larry Fink to tell you you're okay and that Bitcoin is gonna go to 700,000.

如果他跟不上步伐，就建立能取代贝莱德的系统。

Build systems that are gonna take BlackRock away from him if he doesn't keep pace with it.

所以，如果你转向替代系统，就构建一个全新的另类金融体系。

And so if you go to the replacement system, build a new alternate financial system.

他们正在讨论将所有资产在线代币化。

They're talking about tokenization of all assets online.

我们为什么要等黑石来做这件事？

Why are we waiting for BlackRock to do it?

加密社区为什么不直接说：你说得对，我们来干。

Why isn't the crypto community saying, you're right, we'll do it.

非常感谢你，拉里。

Thank you very much, Larry.

让开，看看我们是怎么搞定的。

Step aside and watch how we get this done.

我认为下一个牛市将来自这里。

That's where I think the next bull market will come from.

每个冬天，这种循环似乎总在重复，对吧？

Every winter, this seems like the cycle always repeats, right?

每个夏天结束时，投机社区都显得有点过火。

Every summer ends with a little bit overdone in the degen community.

然后我们进入冬天，是什么让我们走出冬天？

Then we have a winter and what gets us out of the winter?

像2020年的DeFi夏天一样建设。

Building like DeFi summer in 2020.

我们建立了一种全新的系统。

We built a new kind of system.

所以我的观点是，从长远来看，我已经在这个领域待了九到十年。

So what I've argued is long term, I've been in this space now for nine, ten years.

我一直说，每当这个领域开始谈论这一点时，这就是我更倾向于以太坊而非比特币的原因。

And I've always said, every time this space starts to talk about, and that's why I tend to lean more towards ETH than Bitcoin.

每当这个领域开始谈论取代传统金融体系时，因为我认为传统金融体系需要被颠覆。

Every time this space starts talking about a replacement of TradFi, because I think that the TradFi system needs to be disrupted.

叫我参与进来。

Call me in.

叫我参与进来。

Call me in.

我全力投入这件事。

I'm all in on this.

当这个领域不再谈论取代这个系统，而开始谈论成为赌场时，我就开始担心了。

When it stops talking about replacing this system and starts talking about being a casino, then I get nervous.

而这就是我在2025年听到的，整个圈子又回到了赌场的论调。

And that's what I started hearing in the 2025 is we're back to casino talk all over again.

所以，如果我们想不再向拉里·芬克寻求许可，而是直接说：我们不会等拉里·芬克去通证化世界上每一个资产，我们会自己动手，拉里，你最好跟上步伐。

So if we wanna go back to stop asking Larry Fink for permission and start saying, we're not gonna wait for Larry Fink to tokenize every asset in the world, we're gonna do it, Larry, you better keep up.

如果我们朝这个方向走，就能摆脱寒冬，而且能彻底摆脱寒冬。

Then you can get yourself out of a winter and you can get out of winter in a big way if we go in that direction.

嘿，Bankless社群。

Hey, Bankless Nation.

我是大卫。

It's David.

如果你听到这段话，那是因为你在收听免费的Bankless播客频道。

If you're hearing this, that's because you are listening to the free Bankless podcast feed.

你知道吗？还有一个付费的Bankless RSS频道？

Did you know that there is a premium Bankless RSS feed?

付费订阅包含我为个人研究而进行的额外访谈，以及一些我想深入了解加密行业的问题——这些问题能帮助我更好地作为投资者，无论是在Banklist Ventures还是在我自己的个人投资组合中。

The premium feed has extra interviews that I do for my own personal research and just deeper questions that I want answered about the crypto industry, questions that I want to answer so I can be more informed as an investor both at Banklist Ventures and also just in my own personal portfolio too.

此外，付费订阅没有广告，这意味着如果你选择收听付费版而非免费版，每年能节省大约二十个小时的时间，因为你直接支持了Banklist。

Also, there are no ads, which means if you listen to the premium feed instead of the free feed, you'll get about twenty hours of your life back every year because you choose to support Banklist directly.

所以，如果你希望获得额外内容、跳过广告，或者只是欣赏我们所做的工作并希望我们继续下去，我们非常感谢你订阅Banklist Premium，详情链接在节目笔记中。

So if you're interested in getting extra content all while skipping the ads or you just appreciate what we do here and want us to keep doing it, we'd appreciate it if you signed up for Banklist Premium, and there is a link in the show notes to get started.

祝2026年一切顺利。

Cheers to a good 2026.

在加密领域，很少有人在公开预测顶部或底部时真正押上真金白银。

Few people in crypto put real skin in the game when they make public top or bottom calls.

DeFi报告就是其中之一。

The DeFi report is one of them.

就在10月10日闪崩前一周，DeFi报告的Michael给他的全部通讯 subscribers发邮件，表示他将大幅降低风险，将大部分加密资产变现为现金。

The week before the October 10 flash crash, Michael from the DeFi report emailed his entire newsletter saying he's going aggressively risk off and sold the majority of his book from crypto into cash.

当时以太坊价格约为4000美元，比特币价格为11000美元。

This is when ETH was about $4,000 and Bitcoin was a 110.

迈克尔运营着DeFi报告，这是一个基于数据、周期洞察、风险管理、透明度，最重要的是，有真金白银投入的行业领先研究平台。

Michael runs the DeFi report, an industry leading research platform built on data, cycle awareness, risk management, transparency, and most importantly, skin in the game.

我们在Bankless很喜欢迈克尔。

We like Michael at Bankless.

我们喜欢他的分析，这就是为什么你每个月大约能听到一次他在Bankless播客中的声音。

We like his analysis, and that's why you hear him on the Bankless podcast about once a month.

DeFi报告正在为Bankless的听众提供一个月的免费访问权限。

And the DeFi report is giving Bankless listeners one free month of access to the DeFi report.

所以，如果你正在寻找一些敏锐、数据驱动的分析，以更明智地做出投资决策，你可以在DeFi报告专业版中了解迈克尔是如何预测顶部的，以及他接下来的计划。

So if you're looking for some sharp, data driven analysis to make better informed decisions around your portfolio, you can learn why and how Michael called the top and what he's doing next all in the DeFi report pro.

去了解一下吧。

Check it out.

链接在节目说明中。

There is a link in the show notes.

没错，吉姆。

Hell, yeah, Jim.

这绝对是我在Bankless播客上听过的吉姆的五大 rant 之一。

That's gotta be one of my top five top three Jim rants on the bank list podcast.

我最喜欢的之一。

One of my favorites.

这就是我们不断邀请你回来的原因，吉姆。

This is why we keep bringing you back Jim.

在结束本期节目之前，我们还得再问几个问题。

We just gotta have a few more questions before we round out this episode and let you go.

新任美联储主席凯文·沃什，你对他的看法和反思是什么？我们对他感到兴奋还是害怕？你怎么看？

New incoming Fed Chair, Kevin Worsch, thoughts, reflections, are we excited about him, are we scared of him, what do you think?

我给你两个观点。

I'll give you two thoughts.

第一，大家都给他贴上了‘鹰派’的标签。

One, the moniker that they've all stuck on him is that he's hawkish.

这源于他过去二十年来的大量言论。

That has come from a lot of commentary that he's made over the last twenty years.

他从2006年到2011年担任美联储理事。

He was a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011.

好的。

Alright.

在金融危机期间，他发表了一些鹰派言论。

He made some hawkish statements during the financial crisis.

他担心大量印钞和将利率降至零会引发通货膨胀。

He was worried about all the money printing cutting rates to zero was gonna produce inflation.

结果并没有，但他当时确实很担心。

It didn't, but he was worried about it.

那是二十年前的事了。

That's twenty years ago.

你知道，贝森特和特朗普都知道这一点。

You know, Bessent and Trump knew that.

因此，沃什向特朗普发表了一些言论，以缓解人们对他是鹰派的担忧。

So Warsh made some statements to Trump to alleviate those fears that he's hawkish.

所以我想提出的第一个观点是，我认为他并没有大家所描述的那么鹰派，但我们其实不太清楚他的真实立场，因为他现在几乎保持沉默，我们只能拭目以待。

So the first point I'm trying to bring up is I don't think he's nearly as hawkish as everybody makes him out to be, but we don't quite know what they are because he's kind of gone radio silent and we'll find out.

我的意思是，我理解他的论点是认为人工智能将提升生产率，从而抑制通胀，这样我们就能降息，但我希望他能再深入一点，深入再深入一点。

I mean, I understand the argument is that he's saying AI is going to produce productivity, that's going to keep the inflation rate down so that we could cut interest rates, but I'd like him to dig, dig, dig a little deeper than that.

我们只能等待他的确认听证会，希望在听证会上有人会问他这些问题。

We'll have to wait for his confirmation hearings and hopefully they'll ask him those questions at his confirmation hearings.

他提到的另一个观点是美联储与财政部的协议。

The other argument he's talking about is the fed treasury accord.

简单来说，历史背景是：美联储成立于1913年，直到1935年，FOMC的成员都包括财政部长和货币监理署（OCC）主席。

So in just so quick word, a quick history on the fed fed was created in 1913 until about 1935 on the FOMC was the treasury secretary and the chairman of the office of controller of currency, the OCC chairman.

他们一直担任FOMC成员，直到1935年。

They were part of the FOMC until 1935.

所以在美联储成立的头三、四十年里，我们一直在纠结：财政部该做什么？美联储又该做什么？

And so what happened in the first thirty or forty years of the Fed is we really struggled about what does the Treasury do?

财政部该做什么？美联储又该做什么？

What does the Fed do?

哪一个属于他们的？

Which one is theirs?

哪一个属于他们的？

Which one is theirs?

然后我们在1951年达成了所谓的美联储与财政部协议，这划清了界限。

And then we had this called this Fed Treasury Accord in 1951, which kind of drew the lines.

财政部做这个，美联储做那个。

Treasury does this and the fed does that.

这并不是法律。

That's not a law.

这只是一份协议。

It was just an agreement.

他说是时候达成一项新协议了。

And he's saying it's time for a new agreement.

那么，他为什么说现在是时候达成一项新协议了？

Now, why is he saying it's time for a new agreement?

他的论点是，2022年高达9万亿美元的资产负债表过大了。

His argument is the balance sheet at $9,000,000,000,000 in 2022 was too large.

我们开始缩减资产负债表。

We started to reduce the balance sheet.

我们通过量化紧缩将资产负债表降至6万亿美元。

We got the $6,000,000,000,000 through quantitative tightening.

那么2025年发生了什么？

And what happened in the 2025?

到目前为止，我们发现隔夜担保融资利率相对于基础利率开始变得非常波动。

We started to see so far the secured overnight funding rate, overnight money funding rates start to get very volatile relative to underlying rates.

我们逐渐意识到，资产负债表只能缩减到大约6万亿美元，如果再进一步缩减，融资市场就会陷入困境。

And we started to realize that we could only pull the balance sheet back to about $6,000,000,000,000 and if we go anymore, the funding markets run into trouble.

他的论点是，这个资产负债表对美联储来说仍然太大。

And his argument is, this is still too big a balance sheet for the fed.

我们需要将资产负债表缩减到低于6万亿美元，但除非我们改变规则，允许华尔街扩大规模并承接更多资产，否则我们做不到。

We need to go further than 6,000,000,000,000 to reduce it, but we can't, unless we start changing rules to allow Wall Street to expand and take it up.

如果我们把资产负债表从六万亿减少到四万亿再到三万亿，华尔街的融资市场规模就会翻倍。

So if we reduce the balance sheet from six to four to three, that Wall Street's funding markets double in size.

为了做到这一点，我们需要财政部的同意，这就是他所提到的新的美联储与财政部协议。

In order to do that, we're gonna need agreements from the treasury and that's this new fed treasury accord that he's talking about.

我同意。

Count me in.

我认为他说得非常对，我们必须这么做。

I think he's dead on right that we need to do this.

即使美联储的资产负债表从九万亿降到了六万亿，它仍然太大。

The fed is still too big even though it's gone from nine to six.

现在他们正在进行储备管理购买以扩大资产负债表，但你千万别称之为量化宽松。

And now they're doing reserve management purchases to increase their balance sheet, but don't you dare call it QE.

这实际上就是量化宽松。

It actually is QE.

他们只是不想称之为量化宽松。

They just don't want to call it QE.

因此，他们担心金融系统的资金市场——也就是金融体系的基础设施——会变得不稳定。

And so because they're afraid that the funding markets, the plumbing of the financial system is going to get kind of wobbly.

所以我认为他们并不需要那样做。

So I think that they didn't need that.

关于他，我最后想讲一个小故事或一段历史。

The last thing I'll say about him is a quick anecdote or a quick history lesson.

1986年，美联储召开了一次会议，讨论是否降息。

1986, there was a fed meeting and there was a meeting to decide to cut interest rates.

当时的美联储主席是保罗·沃尔克。

Fed chairman at the time was Paul Volker.

沃尔克投票反对降息，但公开市场委员会投票决定降息。

Volker voted to not cut interest rates, but the open market committee voted to cut rates.

换句话说，主席在这次投票中处于少数派。

In other words, the chairman was on the losing side of that vote.

沃尔克在会议中途站起来辞职，走进办公室，给财政部长吉姆·贝克打电话，宣布辞职。

Volker got up in the middle of that meeting and resigned, walked into his office called Jim Baker, the treasury secretary and resigned.

会议结束两分钟后，其他FOMC委员说服他回到会议室。

Two minutes after the meeting, the other FOMC governors convinced him to come back into the boardroom.

几分钟后他们进行了第二次投票，并推翻了之前的决定。

They had a second vote a few minutes later and they reversed themselves.

他们投票决定不降息。

They were voted to not cut interest rates.

沃尔克撤销了辞职，贝克接受了这一决定，沃尔克继续留任了十八个月。

Volker unresigned and Baker accepted it and Volker stayed on for another eighteen months.

但从那一刻起，美联储的运作方式变成了由美联储主席决定政策方向。

But from that moment forward, the way the fed works is the fed chairman decides what they're gonna do.

因此，在每次FOMC会议间隔的六周里，你可以用前五周的时间去说服美联储主席接受你的观点。

And so everybody can spend the five weeks, there's six weeks between each FOMC meeting, you can spend the first five weeks convincing the Fed chairman of your position.

如果你没能说服他，他就会做出决定，所有人都表示赞同，最终会得到12比0或11比1的投票结果。

If you don't, he'll decide, everybody salute it and we get a twelve-zero-eleven-one vote.

进入2025年，特别是在2025年下半年，我们一直在争论美联储的独立性是否会出问题。

Coming into 2025, in the second half of '25, we've been arguing whether or not we're gonna have problem with fed independence.