ETH处于周期的哪个阶段？| 迈克尔·纳多

无银行国家，今天我们要回顾一下以太坊这个资产。

Bankless nation, today we're gonna check-in on Ether the asset.

以太坊目前处于周期的哪个阶段？

Where is ETH in the cycle?

今天，来自《DeFi报告》的我最喜爱的周期投资者迈克尔·纳多来到我们的播客中。

My favorite cycle investor, Michael Nadeau from The DeFi Report is on the podcast today.

我们每个月都会在无银行频道发布这类节目。

We do these episodes on the bankless feed every month.

这一次，我请迈克为在座的以太坊持有者准备了一些信息。

And this one, I asked Mike to prepare a little information for the ETH holders among us.

我和迈克已经多次讨论过比特币的公允市场价值指标，比如周移动平均线、MVRV等所有指标。

Mike and I have talked a lot about fair market value metrics for Bitcoin, the weekly moving averages, MVRV, all of the metrics.

我们已经看过许多关于比特币的图表。

We've looked at many charts about Bitcoin.

但以太坊有自己的周期，它与更广泛的加密货币周期相关，却又独立于比特币。

But ETH has its own cycle that is related to the broader crypto cycle, yet also independent of Bitcoin.

那么，迈克的数据对以太坊未来几个月的价格有何预测？

So what do Mike's numbers say about ETH price in the months to come?

我想知道他是否认为价格已经触底。

I wanna know if he thinks it's bottomed.

如果没有，什么时候才会触底？

If not, when is it going to bottom?

以太坊是迈克在上一个周期中持有的三种资产之一，所以我了解他确实持有部分。

ETH is one of three assets that Mike has held from the last cycle, so I know he owns some.

他计划再买入更多吗？

Is he planning to buy more?

如果会，什么时候买入？

If so, when?

我应该先说明一下。

Now I should qualify.

与Bankless节目的许多嘉宾不同，迈克并不是一个以太坊原教旨主义者。

Unlike many guests on bankless, Mike is not an ETH permeable.

他看多以太坊，曾经多次看多以太坊，但他这次是从一个相对中立的角度来看待这个问题。

He is bullish ETH, has been bullish ETH various times, but he's looking at this from a a fairly neutral perspective.

链上基本面实际上对这个资产意味着什么？

That is what do the on chain fundamentals actually say for this asset?

迈克，很高兴你来参加。

Mike, it's great to have you.

我知道比特币是你最钟爱的资产。

I know Bitcoin is your favorite asset.

历史上，以太坊一直是第二，也许不是非常接近的第二，但绝对是第二。

Historically, ETH has been a a second, maybe not a close second, but definitely a second.

以太坊现在仍然是你加密货币中的第二喜爱资产吗？还是说这个周期它必须再次证明自己？

Is ETH still your second favorite asset in crypto, or does this cycle does it have to prove itself once again this cycle?

嗨，瑞安。

Hey, Ryan.

是的。

Yeah.

很高兴能来这里，这是个很棒的问题，我觉得可以作为开场。

Great great to be here, and that's a great question, I think, to to lead in here.

我认为，我看待这个问题的方式是，把比特币当作我们投资组合的锚定资产。

I would say that the way I think of this is I I think of Bitcoin as sort of a thing that we wanna anchor portfolio in.

我们曾经有过对以太坊更看涨、也更看空的时期。

We've had periods where we were more bullish on ETH, less bullish on ETH.

我们目前在投资组合中仍然持有一些以太坊。

We still own some ETH currently in our portfolio.

我喜欢加密市场这种周期性，以及这种大约四年一次的节奏，因为它让我们有机会重新评估我们对比特币、以太坊以及其他我们可能投资的资产的判断。

And, you know, one of the things that I like about the cyclicality of the crypto markets and just kind of, like, the the sort of four year nature of these markets is that we get a chance to kind of, like, underwrite our thesis for for Bitcoin, for ETH, for other assets that we may want to invest in.

所以，我认为今天的这次对话是一个很好的机会，可以回头高层面地分析一下，过去几年以太坊发生了什么变化？

And so I think this episode today is kind of a opportunity to kinda go back and sort of analyze, like, just high level, like, what has happened with ETH over these last few years?

你知道的吗？

You know?

我们接下来会走向哪里？

Where are we going?

然后我们来聊聊我们现在处于周期的哪个阶段？

And kinda get into some of the the kind of, like, where we at in the cycle?

我们现在是在触底吗？

Are we bottoming right now?

所以，是的，很期待深入探讨这个话题。

So, yeah, excited to get into it.

但我想说，以回答这个问题，以太坊必须向我证明它自己。

But I would say, ETH, to answer the question, ETH has to prove itself to me.

我们可以在这期节目中具体谈谈我正在关注什么。

Like, we we can kinda get into what I'm what I'm looking for in this episode.

好的。

Alright.

因此，以太坊在这个周期中有机会向迈克证明自己，以便他重新评估是否应将其纳入DeFi报告的投资组合。

So ETH has an opportunity to prove itself to Mike this cycle in order for him to re underwrite whether it should be included in the DeFi Report portfolio.

在进入本期节目之前，想感谢我们的朋友和赞助商GALAXY。

Before we get into this episode, wanna thank our friends and sponsors over at GALAXY.

这一点是说给关注机构资本的听众听的，无论你是关注金融的未来，还是下一代工业革命的基石——当然，那就是人工智能。

This one is for the institutional capital listening, whether you are looking at the future of finance or the backbone of the next industrial revolution, that, of course, is AI.

GALAXY 是你需要了解的名字。

GALAXY is the name you need to know.

他们不仅是加密货币和数字资产领域的全球领导者，也是人工智能数据基础设施的领军者。

They're a global leader, not just in crypto and digital assets, but also AI data infrastructure.

你知道他们的股票代码。

You know the ticker.

他们的股票代码是 GLXY。

They are GLXY.

他们提供一系列加密货币服务，包括下一代机构培训、托管代币化，以及他们的 Helios 数据中心。

They have a bunch of crypto offerings, including next generation institutional training, custine tokenization, and also their Helios site.

这是一个拥有16亿瓦电力的人工智能数据中心。

This is an AI data center with 1.6 gigawatts of power.

如果你想了解 GALAXY 如何帮助机构在加密货币和人工智能领域进行投资、建设和转型，不妨去了解一下。

So go check them out if you wanna see how GALAXY helps institutions in crypto and AI invest, build, and transform.

去了解一下吧。

Go check them out.

节目笔记里有链接。

There's a link in the show notes.

好了，迈克，随着本集的开始，以太坊价格刚刚高于2000美元。

Alright, Mike, as we enter this episode, ETH price is just hovering above 2 k.

所以在当前的熊市中，它依然坚挺。

So it's hanging in there in this in this bear market.

我其实想回溯一下以太坊在其经历的三个周期中的发展历程。

I actually want to go back and talk about the history of ETH across the three cycles that it's been around.

虽然它没有比特币那么悠久，但也已经存在相当长的时间了。

So it hasn't been around as long as Bitcoin, but it's been around for a while.

算下来已经有大约十年了。

We've got ten years or so clocking in.

到目前为止，以太坊已经经历了三次暴涨后又暴跌的周期。

So there's been three cycles that ETH has, you know, boomed and then busted so far.

第一个周期是2017年。

The first was 2017.

那个周期的低点，大约在2016年底，以太坊的价格是8美元。

And the bottom of that cycle, you know, sometime in late twenty sixteen, ETH was $8.

想象一下那种情景。

So just imagine that.

不是2000美元，而是8美元。

Not 2 k, but $8.

在2017年高峰期，这一涨势持续到2018年1月，以太坊从8美元涨到了1400美元。

In 2017 at the peak, this lasted into January 2018, ETH went from $8 to $1,400.

这是惊人的增长。

So this was incredible growth.

在第一个周期中，涨幅达到了175倍。

This was a 175 x in the first cycle.

记住这一点。

So remember that.

第一轮周期，从低谷到高峰上涨了175倍。

Cycle one, a 175 x from trough to peak.

第二轮周期是2021年，我们看到了61倍的增长。

Cycle two, this was 2021, we saw a 61 x gain.

那就是6000%。

So that's 6000%.

当时的低谷出现在12月，价格为2098美元。

The trough there, we hit this in December $2,098.

到2021年11月，这成为了高点，价格达到了4878美元。

By November 2021, that turned out to be the top, We were at 4,878.

所以第二轮周期是61倍的增长。

So 61 x in cycle two.

第一轮周期175倍，第二轮周期61倍。

One seventy five x cycle one, 61 x cycle two.

我们来谈谈最近一轮在2025年结束的周期。

Let's talk about the most recent cycle that ended in 2025.

所以，这一次的低点出现在六月，为2903美元。

So there, we troughed down to, in June $2,903.

而这一轮的高点是4953美元。

And then our peak for this cycle was 4,953.

因此，这个高点只是勉强超过了上一轮的最高点。

So barely an all time high eking in from the previous cycle.

所以这一轮的涨幅并不是175倍，也不是61倍，而是5.6倍。

So the gain this cycle wasn't a 175 x, wasn't 61 x, it was 5.6 x.

明白吗？

Alright?

这是一个小得多的数字。

A much smaller number.

因此，我认为目前许多加密货币和以太坊投资者都在问这个问题。

And so I think a lot of investors for in crypto and for ETH right now are asking this question.

这是以太坊跳过了一轮，还是这已经成为新的常态？

Was this just a skipped cycle for ETH, or is this now the new normal?

这种表现水平相比之前的周期显得相当疲软。

Like, that level of performance is kind of anemic compared to previous cycles.

这是我们现在所处的阶段，还是你觉得出于某种原因，这个周期对以太坊并不有利，下次会更强劲地反弹？

Is that just where we are now, or do you think, for whatever reason, this cycle just was not favorable to ETH and it'll come back stronger next time around?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这是个关键问题，你这样概括过去三个周期的回报递减现象，非常有意思。

I think this is the the the big question, and that's a very interesting kind of just framing of just kind of those, you know, diminishing returns over the last last three cycles.

也许你可以从更宏观的角度来看这张图的最高点，瑞安，这样我们能更全面地看待这个问题。

Maybe if you just zoom out to, like, the max on that chart, Ryan, we kind of look at this a little bit from a broader perspective.

你可以看到这里的基础水平在上升，这是一个积极的信号，我认为这是一个健康的图表。

And and what you can see here is rising sort of, you know, base, which is a which is a good sign and I think a healthy chart.

你可以看到我们在前两个周期中经历了巨大的涨幅。

You can see these massive moves that we made in the first two cycles.

而在最近这个周期中，我们基本上只是在2021到2022年确立的价格区间内波动，这很有趣。

And and then, you know, in this last cycle, we've mostly just actually sort of traded within the range that was established back in 2021, 2022, which is which is interesting.

这对以太坊来说是独一无二的。

This is this is unique for ETH.

如果你看看许多加密货币的图表，这个情况是独特的。

And if you look at a lot of crypto charts out there, this one's unique.

它过去和其他大多数资产一样，经历了2017年比特币的首次大幅上涨，然后是2021年的上涨，但大多数资产要么再也没有回升，要么出现了另一个大幅的第三波峰值。

It used to look like most of the other ones where you had the first Bitcoin big move back in 2017, and then you had 21, but most of the assets out there, you see either they just never come back or they have another big third peak.

而以太坊则两者都没有经历。

With ETH, didn't get either of those.

我们一直停留在中间区域。

We stayed in the middle zone.

所以我认为，从这个角度来看，这可能是看涨的，因为它本质上已经持续了大约五年，逐步完成了持币者的更替。

So I think this can be bullish from the perspective that it's essentially just been kind of, like, you know, sort of turning over the holder base for about five, you know, years or so now.

你可以仔细观察这一点。

And you can kinda look at this.

你可以回溯来看，以太坊今年或许只是勉强触及了新的历史高点，而目前的交易水平与四五年前所处的水平相似。

You can go back and say, you know, ETH, you know, it maybe a bit barely sort of got to a new all time high this year, and it's trading at, you know, a level right now that it was similarly trading at, you know, four or five years ago.

你可以问自己，这到底是看涨还是看跌？

And you you could ask yourself, is that, you know, bullish or bearish?

我认为我的看法是回到2021年和2022年，想想以太坊当时在路线图上的位置，以及它在基本面、用户数量、网络效应、所有工具、开发者和稳定币等方面的状况——所有这些在以太坊上正在展开的东西。

And I think the way I think about it is I go back to 2021, 2022, and think about just where Ethereum was on its roadmap and you know, where it was in terms of fundamentals and users and all the network effects, all of the tooling, all the developers, all of the Stablecoins, and just kind of like everything that's that's kinda playing out on Ethereum.

我们看到所有这些指标都有所提升，但价格走势却没有反映出来。

And we've seen all of those metrics improve, but we haven't seen it reflected in the price action.

我认为这真正归结于一点，也是为什么ETH在上一个周期中表现略逊一筹的原因，那就是L2路线图本身的性质。

And I think the the thing that this really comes back to and why ETH maybe underperformed a little bit in this past cycle is the just the nature of the l two road map.

这曾经是我们——你可能还记得，瑞安——我们曾经每季度发布的一个东西，叫以太坊投资框架。

And this was something that, you know, we we had something called you may recall, Ryan, the Ethereum investment framework that we used to that we used to put out on a quarterly basis.

我们当时基本上是在梳理以太坊的路线图，以及它如何随着时间推移影响这条链的经济模型。

And we were sort of essentially trying to lay out the the road map for ETH and then how that would impact the sort of economics of the chain over time.

我们准确预测到，L2路线图会导致L1层面的价值捕获逐渐减弱。

And we accurately forecasted that the l two road map would create this, you know, sort of diminishing value capture at the l one level.

但我们没有准确预测到的是市场对这一点的感知，以及事实上，我认为发生的情况是：以太坊自我颠覆了，以便能够成长，以便通过这些L2实现扩展。

But what we did not sort of forecast correctly was that that the the market perception of that and just the the fact that basically what what I think happened was Ethereum has sort of disrupted itself, right, so that it could grow and so that we could scale via these l twos.

在这个过程中，他们虽然让L2用户的产品体验变得更好，但短期内却伤害了自己。

And in doing so, they sort of, like, made the product better for the L2 customer, but sort of, you know, hurt their hurt themselves in the in the near term.

关键问题是，这个L2路线图的整个愿景最终会实现吗？我们可以稍微探讨一下它如何逐步演变。

And and the the big question is, like, is this this whole vision of the L2 roadmap We can kinda get into how that's sort of evolving a little bit.

这最终会实现吗？

Is is this, you know, ultimately gonna play out?

Robinhood、Coinbase和传统金融领域会入场，构建真正拥有实际应用和大量用户的L2吗？这样一来，价值分配会更均衡一些。

Is Robinhood and and Coinbase and and traditional finance, are they gonna come in, build l twos that actually, like, have real apps and tons of, you know, users on these things that ultimately there's actually a little bit more of, like, a value share.

这是一种双赢的局面，部分价值会回流到L1，从而影响质押收益，以及人们评估网络价值和整体经济健康状况的其他方式。

It's more of a win win with some value accrual going down to the l one, which then impacts, you know, staking yields, some of those sort of ways that people think about valuing the network and just, like, the overall, you know, economic health of the network.

但这些并没有实现。

You know, that didn't play out.

我认为这在很大程度上解释了以太坊在上一轮牛市期间所经历的某种程度的幻灭期。

I think that played a major role in sort of the, I would say, period of somewhat disillusionment that Ethereum went through during this past this past bull mark bull market.

所以，你的解释基本上是，以太坊所做的路线图决策导致ETH错失了一个周期？

So then is your explanation basically that the the road map decisions that Ethereum made essentially caused ETH price to skip a cycle?

现在，下一个周期是否会重新变得乐观，还是会继续表现疲软，相比以往周期显得乏力，这可能需要你自己来判断。

Now whether the next cycle will be, you know, back to being more bullish again or or not, whether it will continue to underperform and and be anemic relative to previous cycles, maybe you have to underwrite that on your own.

但这个2025年的周期，是否只是因为L2没有按照以太坊预期的方式扩展，费用没有回流到ETH这个资产，市场看着L2路线图说：好吧。

But this cycle, the 2025 cycle, was it a case of just l twos not scaling in the way that Ethereum thought, the fees not accruing back to Ether, the asset, the market looking at the l two road map and saying, okay.

这对单个L2链来说或许可以接受，但对ETH这个资产来说未必是好事。

This might be okay for individual L2 chains, but it's not necessarily good for Ether, the asset.

因为这一策略最近已经转向，从2025年开始转向，并在2026年加速推进。

I mean, because that strategy has more recently pivoted, and it started pivoting in 2025 and has accelerated into 2026.

而且看起来，以太坊的路线图方向更侧重于重新聚焦于L1的扩展。

And it does seem like the direction of the Ethereum roadmap is much more about renewed focus on scaling the l one.

并且看着L2的路线图说：好吧。

And looking at the l two road map and saying, okay.

那还不错。

That was okay.

那只是个稍微偏离主线的支线任务。

It was a little bit of a side quest.

犯了一些错误。

Mistakes were made.

吸取了教训。

Lessons are learn were learned.

以太坊真正需要关注的是在L1上发展DeFi，并在L2并行扩展的同时提升L1的扩展能力。

What Ethereum really needs to focus on is is DeFi on the l one and scaling up the l one as l twos scale in parallel.

我的意思是，是的。

I mean Yeah.

我想你可以说这些教训已经被吸取了，L2路线图正是导致ETH在本周期表现不佳的原因。

I guess you could make the case that those lessons have been learned, that the l two roadmap was the reason that ETH did not perform this cycle.

但现在，如果以太坊能重回正轨并实施L1扩展路线图，它就有机会表现得更出色。

But now they haven't ETH has an opportunity to overperform if it actually gets back on track and implements the l one scaling road map.

这就是这里的故事吗？

Is that the story here?

如果你稍微眯着眼看，你能看到这一点吗？

If you if you kinda squint, can you see that?

我能看出来。

I can I can see that?

是的。

Yes.

我绝对能看出来。

I I I absolutely can.

你知道，当这个L2路线图刚开始推出的时候，我就对它持看涨态度。

And, like, you know, when you know, I was bullish on this L2 road map when this was really starting to come out.

如果你回溯到2022年到2023年这段时间，那时Optimism正在推出和落地。

So if you go back to, like, 2022, 2023 period, this is when Optimism, you know, was was coming out, rolling out.

当时这是一个令人兴奋的项目。

That was an exciting project at the time.

我记得Bankless那时对此做了大量报道。

I know Bankless had a lot of, like, coverage on that at the time.

之后Arbitrum也推出了。

Arbitrum came out thereafter.

这两个代币在熊市中实际上表现得相当不错。

Both of these lost tokens that that actually, like, performed decently well, actually, in in a bear market.

当时围绕L2有很多兴奋情绪，我认为我们所有人共同的愿景是，大多数应用都会部署在这些L2上——我们确实看到大多数最受欢迎的DeFi应用都部署到了L2，但我们还没看到任何真正的新应用。

So there was excitement around the L2s, and I think the vision that we all had was that most of the apps would actually deploy on these L2s, which we saw most of the most popular DeFi apps deploy on the L2s, but we haven't really seen, like, any new app.

我们只是看到Uniswap部署到了L2，以及其他一些流行的DeFi项目也部署到了L2。

Like, we've just kind of seen, like, Uniswap deploy on l two and and other, like, popular DeFi stuff just deploy on l twos.

我们还没看到一个真正 breakout 的应用，是通过以太坊构建的这个新产品诞生的。

We haven't seen, like, a breakout app that comes via this new, you know, product, essentially, that Ethereum has built.

我认为这一直是个问题。

And that I think that's been an issue.

另一个问题是，从用户体验的角度来看，这些L2需要被整合在一起。

And then the other issue is, you know, for this to really work from a user experience, these l twos need to be fused together.

你需要一个无缝的跨链体验，我认为这仍然是个用户体验问题，我们一直被承诺说这一切会融合在一起，实现无缝衔接。

I need you need you know, this bridging experience, I think there's a UX issue that's still we've been promised that this would all fuse together and it would be seamless.

但这些至今还没有真正实现。

That hasn't really happened yet.

我认为，在这一切发生的过程中，这些因素导致了Solana的反弹，它抓住了加密市场更具投机性的特质，而这些特质正是以太坊在2021年周期中所具备的。

And I think these are the things that, you know, have have while this is playing out, then you have Solana sort of making a comeback that sort of captures the sort of more speculative nature of the, you know, crypto markets that Ethereum did have, I would say, in the 2021 cycle.

部分资金流向Solana是因为以太坊的交易费用太高，但我认为这其实是所有这些因素共同作用的结果。

Some of that had gone to Solana just because of the fees on Ethereum, but I think it's just really a combination of all these things.

所以，当你宏观地看这张图表时，你可能会说：等等，有点不对劲。

And so I think when you kind of like zoom out, you could look at that chart and say, well, wait a minute.

这对以太坊来说是一段非常艰难的时期。

This is, a really rough period for Ethereum.

它们经历了这一切，学到了所有这些教训，而你知道，这是一个庞大的全球性资产。

They've gone through, learned all these lessons, and, you know, this is a big this is a big, you know, global asset.

但说实话，考虑到所有这些因素，这张图表看起来依然相当不错。

And it's you know, that chart looks pretty good to be to be honest, given all of this.

因此，这张图表依然保持这样的走势，看起来我们正在形成另一个更低的高点。

And so it has the that chart still held up like that, it looks like we're establishing another lower high.

在我看来，它确实有潜力在下一个周期中跑赢比特币。

Like, to me, it does have the potential to potentially outperform Bitcoin, you know, next cycle.

在这个周期中，它跑输比特币了，对吧？

It underperformed Bitcoin, right, this this cycle.

如果你是加密货币投资者，这可是你的基准。

And if you're a crypto investor, like, that's your benchmark.

所以，每当你把钱投向比特币以外的任何资产时，我们都会花大量时间思考这个问题，以及哪些资产最有可能跑赢比特币。

And so every dollar that you're putting into anything other than Bitcoin, like, we we spend a lot of time, you know, thinking about that and and which assets, you know, have the highest probability of outperforming.

我们还在慢慢得出结论，看看以太坊是否具备这样的潜力。

You know, we're still sort of kind of, like, coming to our conclusions about whether that whether ETH has that potential here.

但上一个周期的一个重要教训是，要跑赢比特币变得越来越难，尤其是对于那些不是在牛市周期中新推出资产的项目。

But what one of the big learnings from last cycle was that it's getting harder and harder to outperform Bitcoin, especially for things that are not newer assets that are coming out and launching during during these bull market cycles.

所以，是的，我说得有点发散，但我认为这是一个有趣的故事。

So, yeah, a a bit of a ramble, but I think, you know, this is this is this is an interesting story.

我们接下来会看一些数据。

We're gonna get into some of the data.

我们会分析一些公允价值指标，但我认为这个局面很有意思。

We'll get into some of the fair value metrics, but I think it's an interesting setup.

你确实有像Coinbase、Robin这样的平台，还有这里的主要建设者，关键在于，我们是否会看到传统金融的介入？

You do have you know, like I said, you have Coinbase, you have Robin, and you have major builders here, and it comes down to, are we gonna see traditional finance?

我们是否会看到传统金融与加密货币的这种融合，尤其是在当前这个可能的熊市中，随着监管逐渐明朗？

Are we gonna see, just this kind of fee this merger of TRADFI and crypto, here in this in this maybe in this bear market as we get, you know, regulatory clarity.

所以

So

我们来谈谈另一个让市场投资者感到困惑的点吧。

Let's talk about another point of confusion, I think, for the market investors.

至少我在进入这个话题时有些困惑，这有点讽刺，因为我认为这几乎是Bankless节目的一个起源性问题：我们该如何为这些加密资产，比如比特币和以太坊，乃至更下游的资产估值？

At least I'm I'm somewhat confused going into this, which is ironic given, I think that's been a almost a genesis question for bankless is how do we value these crypto assets like Bitcoin and and Ether and on down?

你可以用很多不同的方法来评估以太坊这个资产的价值。

There are many different ways you can, use to to value Ether the asset.

这是我打开的一个网站，叫ethval.com。

This is a website I have pulled up called ethval.com.

这个网站很不错。

It's pretty good.

它是所有那些流行且有数据支持的估值方法的综合。

It's a composite of all of the different ways that have been popular and have some data behind them.

但如果你要将这些针对以太坊资产的不同估值机制归类，这与以太坊网络本身的成功程度或路线图无关。

But if you were to group these different valuation mechanisms for Ether the asset, and this is independent of how successful Ethereum is as a network or the road map.

我们这里具体讨论的是：好吧。

Like, what what we're talking about here concretely is, alright.

根据以太坊网络的成功，投资者应该如何看待以太坊资产的公允市场价格及其基本面。

Based on the success of the Ethereum network, how should investors think about Ether the asset in terms of what its fair market value price is, what what the fundamentals are.

据我所知，大致可以分为三类指标。

And there's roughly, as far as I can tell, like, three different categories of of metrics.

第一种是把以太坊当作像比特币或黄金那样的货币资产。

One is you just think of Ether as a monetary asset like Bitcoin or like gold.

它是一种非主权资产，没有发行方或价值故事，但具备稀缺性叙事。

It's a sovereign, a non sovereign, doesn't have an issuer or story of value, has a scarcity story.

与比特币的稀缺性叙事略有不同，但依然是一种稀缺性叙事。

A little bit different than Bitcoin in terms of its scarcity story, but still a scarcity story.

而且这个数值会上升，因为人们认为它是一种独立于法币体系的价值储存资产。

And kind of number goes up because people believe it's a store value asset independent of of fiat based systems.

因此，它是一种替代选择。

And so it's an alternative to that.

这是你可以用来评估这种资产的一组指标。

That's one set of metrics that you can use to value this thing.

另一组指标则处于另一个极端：以太坊网络确实会产生一些费用。

Another set on the other end of the spectrum is, the Ethereum network does generate some fees.

你可以将这些费用视为网络的税收收入，网络能够收取部分费用作为税收，并将它们分配给质押ETH资产的人。

And you can almost think of this as, like, tax revenue of the network, and it is able to collect some of these fees as as, say, taxes and pass them on to those that are staking ETH asset.

因此，实际上有现金流与之相关。

And so there's cash flows actually attached to that.

所以你可以得到市销率，以及费用收益率之类的比率，或者你可以观察返还给质押者的现金流有多少，并像评估股票市场中的科技股一样，用某种贴现现金流模型来估值。

And so you get, you know, price to sales ratios and you get feel fee yield type ratios on that, or you can look at kind of how much cash flows back to stakers and and value it based on almost like a tech stock in equities, some sort of discounted cash flow table.

还有第三类方法，就是将它视为一个网络、一个经济体，思考网络之上的价值，包括所有资产、稳定币和代币，然后创建一种总锁仓价值倍数，回顾历史，看看价格如何对平台上的特定价值量做出反应，进而得出结论：如果平台上的价值上升，ETH价格也应该上涨。

There's a third class too, which is you just think of this as a as a network, an economy in a network, and you think about the the value on top of that network, all of the assets and stablecoins and and tokens, and you create some sort of total value locked multiple, and you look at historically, you know, how the prices reacted to a certain amount of value in the platform, then you just say, well, if that value goes up, then ETH price should increase.

所有这些梅特卡夫定律类型的网络机制都在表明，ETH 这一资产应该是以太坊经济以及其上所有资产的一部分。

There's all of these Metcalfe law type network mechanisms where you're essentially saying that ETH, the asset, should be some sort of portion of the Ethereum economy and all of the assets on top of Ethereum.

这些是三种不同的以太坊估值方式。

Those are, like, three different categories of how you value ETH.

这里令人着迷的是，迈克，当你观察这些不同类别之间的差异时，如果以过去 365 天的一层手续费和数据块手续费收入为基础计算市销率，ETH 这一资产目前的价值大约只有 2 美元。

And what's fascinating here, Mike, is when you look at the variance of these categories, if you took something like price to sales ratio based on the last 365 of l one fee revenue and blob fee revenue, Ether the asset would be worth about $2 right now.

明白吗？

Okay?

是的。

Yeah.

在另一端，如果你考虑生态系统结算、一些网络指标以及储值型指标的话。

On the other end of the spectrum, if you look at kind of ecosystem settlement, some of these network metrics and use some of the store value type metrics.

这是一种 MV = PQ 的模型。

This is one MV equals PQ.

这是 2017 年左右流行的一种估值方法。

This was a valuation metric kind of popular in the 2017 era.

在这一侧，ETH的价值将是24000美元。

ETH would be worth on that side $24,000.

对。

Right.

看看这两种不同指标之间的巨大差异。

Look at this disparity in two different metrics.

你有2美元对24000美元。

You have $2 versus $24,000.

现在我们有了ETH的当前价格。

Now we have an ETH price point right now.

市场认为ETH目前价值2000美元。

The market has deemed that ETH is worth 2 k right now.

这告诉我，市场正在努力弄清楚该如何真正评估这个资产。

So what that tells me is the market is just trying to figure out how the hell to actually value this asset.

它到底算不算科技股？

Like, is it a tech stock?

它是某种网络估值，也就是你为以太坊价格所推崇的经济模式吗？

Is it some sort of network valuation, you know, economy that you're you're you're plugging for ETH price?

它是一种价值储存手段吗？

Is it a store of value?

也许价格只是反映了市场对哪些指标真正适用于这个资产感到不确定。

Maybe the price just reflects that the market is uncertain in terms of which metrics actually apply to this thing.

你如何看待以太坊这个资产？在你看来，哪些指标应该用于它的估值？

How do how do you see Ether the asset, and and which which metrics in your mind should apply to its valuation?

是的。

Yeah.

这很棒，瑞安。

This is great, Ryan.

你知道，这里有趣的是，当你看这个市销率时，如果回溯到2021年，以太坊还在赚钱的时候。

You know, what's what's interesting here as well is, like, when you look at that price to sale ratio, you know, if you go back to 2021 when Ethereum was printing cash.

对吧？

Right?

那时候还没有Layer 2，只有Layer 1。

This was when the L1 there were no L2s.

所有用户都在Layer 1上，导致了严重的拥堵。

Every user was on the L1, and you had massive congestion.

我们都知道，这其实不可持续，但当时真正的叙事是现金流。

We all knew that, like, that wasn't really sustainable, but the actual story at that time was cash flow.

你可以做现金流折现分析，数字实际上还说得通。

You could do a DCF, and the numbers actually sort of checked out.

那是完全不同的故事。

It was totally different story.

所以这些年来，情况已经发生了很大变化，这得益于技术升级以及以太坊扩展路线图的布局方式。

So this has evolved quite a bit over the years, and it's due to the technical upgrades and just the way that Ethereum is kinda laid out its its scaling road map.

关于这一点，我的看法是，我们已经多次尝试探讨过这个话题。

You know, my view on this, and we've we've we've tried to cover this topic a few different times.

去年我们写过一篇文章，叫《如何估值一个Layer 1》，大家可以去看看。

We wrote a piece last year called, you know, how to value an l one, and people can check that out.

我们更关注的是，我们认为看待L1的方式应该像看待主权国家一样，而代币就是其货币。

We we we focus more on, like we think the way to think about l ones is, like, as nation states, and a token is the currency.

基本上，这个主权国家提供基础设施，就像一个国家提供一套规则、财产权利等一样，区块链处理这些事务，然后向所有用户征税，用户必须使用这种货币来访问服务。

And, basically, the nation state, you know, provides the infrastructure, like, sort of, like, how a country, provides a set of rules and property rights and things like this, the blockchain handles that, and then it charges a tax to all of the users, and the users have to use that currency to access services.

所以我认为它的运作方式非常相似。

So I think it functions very similar to that.

我喜欢这个模式。

I like that model.

那么，最重要的估值指标是什么？

Now, you know, what is the most important sort of, like, valuation metric?

我认为这要回到几个不同的方面。

You know, I think that it it comes back to a few different things.

因此，我认为代币经济是非常重要的一点。

So I look at token economics as one thing that I think is is very important.

即使以太坊的RUV和现金流有所下降，它的代币经济依然非常强劲。

Ethereum has very strong token economics even with its sort of RUV and its, like, cash flow being down.

实际上，它现在的通胀率比比特币还要低。

It's still, you know, less inflationary actually right now than than Bitcoin is.

所以它的代币经济非常强劲。

So it has strong token economics.

另一个你可以看的指标是总锁仓价值，也就是GDP。

The other thing you can look at is the sort of, like, TVL, GDP.

比如，建立在这个系统之上的经济价值是多少？

Like, what's the value of the economy on top of this thing?

当你现在考虑以太坊的估值时，从市值角度来看，我稍微查一下，大约是2500亿美元。

When you think about ETH's valuation right now around in terms of market value, let me just pull it up real quick, about 250,000,000,000.

以太坊上流通的稳定币总额约为10.7万亿美元。

ETH has about a $107,180,000,000,000 of Stablecoins on it.

对吧？

Right?

如果你把其他所有锁仓价值都算上，它的总价值肯定远高于市值，这也是另一种衡量方式。

If you factor in the rest of the TVL, you know, it's certainly much higher than the market cap, so that's another way.

通常情况下，当市值与稳定币和其他TVL资产的总和趋于一致时，我们就能看到公允价值。

Typically, we've seen fair value when the market cap converges to the combination of Stablecoins and other TBL assets.

所以对我来说，这是一个现金流故事的结合。

So to me, it's a combination of cash flow story.

这里确实存在与比特币不同的现金流。

There is cash flow here that is different from Bitcoin.

代币经济故事和基本面故事。

The token economic story and then the fundamental story.

我试图将所有这些因素综合起来，然后聚焦于我认为在国家主权这一概念背景下最重要的问题：为什么在国家主权模型中，某些货币比其他货币更有力量？

I try to roll all of that up and then focus on what I think is the most important thing in the context of this idea of a nation state and why do certain currencies have more strength than others in a nation state model?

这是因为资本流动、法治以及货币政策等各种因素。

It's because of capital flows, sort of the, you know, rule of law and and and monetary policy, all of these things.

这是一种整体性的思考方式。

And that's kind of like a holistic way to think about this.

传统上，以太坊的估值大多只是相对于比特币来衡量的，而市场尚未真正确定其关键的估值标准。

I mean, traditionally, ETH has sort of just been valued, like, relative to to Bitcoin, I think, for the most part, and the market hasn't really landed on, like, what is the key sort of valuation criteria just yet.

市场正在对一个远非稳定的世界做出反应。

Markets are reacting to a world that feels anything but stable.

通胀居高不下，地缘政治风险上升，资本在加密货币、大宗商品、股票和货币之间的流动速度前所未有。

Inflation is sticky, geopolitical risk is rising, and capital is moving between crypto, commodities, equities, and currencies faster than ever.

像BITGET这样的通用交易所正是为此类环境而打造的。

A universal exchange like BITGET is built for this kind of environment.

通过一次重大应用升级，BITGET现在在导航栏中为传统金融（TradFi）设置了专属标签页。

With a major app upgrade, BITGET now gives TRADFI its own dedicated tab in the navigation.

只需一键，您即可访问股票、黄金、外汇及其他全球市场，全部都在您已用于加密货币的同一平台上。

One click gives you access to stocks, gold, forex, and other global markets, all inside the same platform you already use for crypto.

您可以在股票永续合约上享受高达90%的交易费折扣，并且可以免手续费交易黄金和白银。

You can get 90% off trading fees on stock perps, and you can trade gold and silver without the fee burn.

一个应用，一个账户。

One app, one account.

无需在不同平台间切换，即可并行交易加密资产和传统资产。

Trade crypto and traditional assets side by side without bouncing between platforms.

无需分散的工具，无需反复登录，只需一个专为速度与灵活性打造的统一交易体验。

No scattered tools, no login juggling, just a unified trading experience built for speed and flexibility.

当黄金对全球风险做出反应，加密货币因流动性而波动，宏观新闻可能一夜之间改变市场时。

When gold is reacting to global risk, crypto is moving on liquidity, and macro headlines can shift markets overnight.

你需要一个将所有内容集中于一处的平台。

You need a platform that keeps everything in one place.

这就是BITGET通用交易所愿景的实践。

This is BITGET's universal exchange vision in action.

如果你是那种随世界变化而调整的交易者，BITGET就是为你打造的。

If you're the kind of trader who adapts as the world changes, BITGET is built for you.

在同一个地方开始交易加密货币和传统金融资产。

Start trading crypto and TRADFI in one place.

点击节目说明中的链接。

Click the link in the show notes.

这不是投资建议。

This is not investment advice.

GALAXY 致力于数字资产与下一代基础设施的交汇点，为机构提供端到端的服务。

GALAXY operates where digital assets and next generation infrastructure come together, serving institutions end to end.

在市场方面，GALAXY 是领先的机构平台，提供现货、衍生品、结构性产品、DeFi 借贷、投资银行和融资服务。

On the market side, GALAXY is a leading institutional platform, providing access to spot, derivatives, structured products, DeFi lending, investment banking, financing.

凭借超过 1600 个交易对手，GALAXY 帮助机构应对市场周期的每个阶段。

With more than 1,600 trading counterparties, Galaxy helps institutions navigate every phase of the market cycle.

该平台还通过主动管理策略和机构级质押及区块链基础设施，支持长期资产配置者。

The platform also supports long term allocators through actively managed strategies and institutional grade staking and blockchain infrastructure.

这种规模是真实的。

That scale is real.

GALAXY 平台上的资产超过 120 亿美元，并在 2025 年底平均拥有 18 亿美元的贷款组合，体现了生态系统中深厚的信任。

Galaxy has over $12,000,000,000 in assets on the platform and averaged a $1,800,000,000 loan book in late twenty twenty five, reflecting deep trust across the ecosystem.

除了数字资产，GALAXY 还在为人工智能驱动的未来构建基础设施。

Beyond digital assets, Galaxy is also building infrastructure for an AI powered future.

其 Helios 数据中心园区专为人工智能和高性能计算而建，拥有超过 1.6 吉瓦的获批电力容量，使其成为同类中规模最大的站点之一。

Its Helios Data Center campus is purpose built for AI and high performance computing with more than 1.6 gigawatts of approved power capacity, making it one of the largest sites of its kind.

从全球市场到为AI准备的数据中心，Galaxy正在全方位服务数字资产生态系统。

From global markets to AI ready data centers, Galaxy is serving the digital asset ecosystem end to end.

访问 galaxy.com/bankless 了解Galaxy，或点击节目笔记中的链接。

Explore Galaxy at galaxy.com/bankless or click the link in the show notes.

我真的觉得你这个国家隐喻很有见地。

I do think you're onto something with this nation state metaphor, really.

如果纵观历史，确实有一些国家享有这种非凡的特权，即其他国家都愿意将其货币作为价值储存和交易媒介。

And if you kind of, you know, take that throughout history, there have been different nation states that have been blessed with the exorbitant privilege of having other nation states actually wanting to use their currency as a store of value and also as a medium of exchange.

比如，目前美国显然拥有这种非凡的特权。

I mean, The US, most notably right now, has that exorbitant privilege.

因此，人们不禁会想，哪些区块链能获得这种特权，而哪些不能。

And so, you know, one wonders which blockchains might be blessed with that and which ones aren't.

显然，比特币过去曾享有这种特权。

Certainly, it seems like Bitcoin has been blessed with that in the past.

它会是唯一一个吗？

Will it be the only one?

还会更多吗？

Will there be more?

这些可以说是悬而未决的关键问题。

These are kind of the the outstanding questions.

但即便在故事价值的情况下，国家隐喻和估值框架依然适用。

But still the the nation state metaphor analog valuation framework does fit the mold for that case too, even in the story value case.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得是的。

I think so.

我觉得是的。

I think so.

作为加密分析师，我一直以来的观点是，我不断查看数据，试图弄清楚是什么在驱动这些资产的价格，以及本该驱动它们价格的因素是什么。

And, you know, I've had the view that, you know, as a crypto analyst and as somebody who's, you know, constantly looking at data and trying to figure out, like, what's driving the prices of these things, what should drive the prices of these things.

我一直认为，我们最终会确立一些新的标准，来界定这一切将如何运作。

You know, I've had the view that, like, we're eventually gonna sort of land on some new standards in terms of how this is all gonna work.

你知道，我们仍然处于监管之前的状态。

You know, we are still preregulation.

我认为，加密货币市场已经存在一段时间了，但我们仍然处于监管之前的状态。

I think, you know, the crypto markets have been around for a little while, but we are still preregulation.

所以我认为，一旦通过了所谓的《CLARITY法案》，希望这正是我们想要的立法。

So I think once this you know, once we get the the CLARITY Act, you know, through, hopefully, that is the legislation that we want.

一旦它通过了，我认为这将变得更加开放，传统金融将开始如何整合进来。

Once that gets through, I think, you know and this just becomes much more open to traditional finance and how they're gonna start to integrate.

我认为我们将逐渐形成一些框架，而且我预计这些框架会来自加密原生分析师，而不是传统金融领域，所以我认为他们会采纳我们已经建立的一些理念，我们走着瞧吧。

I think we will start to land on some frameworks, and I expect them to come from crypto native analysts and not And traditional finance so, I think they're going to adopt some of the thinking that we've already established, And, you know, we'll see.

这需要你耐心等待。

It's it's you know, be patient.

你知道，我多年来一直这么说，但事情并没有真正发生。

You know, I've been saying this for years now, and it hasn't really plant like, played out.

但你知道，如果这些网络持续被采用，并持续产生有趣的数据和基本面，我们绝对会找到一种方式，市场也绝对会逐渐形成一种标准的思考方式。

But, you know, if these networks continue to be adopted and continue to produce interesting data and interesting fundamentals, like, we will absolutely find a way, and the market will will absolutely, I think, converge on a sort of standard way to think about them.

好吧，让我们来看看那些基本面和数据，至少你是关注这些的。

Well, let's take a look at some of those fundamentals and those numbers that at least you look at.

其中一个就是以太坊目前的收入。

So one of them is Ethereum revenue right now.

那它向我们展示了什么？

So what what is that showing us?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这就是整个故事。

I mean, it's it's this is the story.

这就是L2路线图。

This is the L two road map.

对吧？

Right?

它只是在可视化L2路线图对经济带来的影响。

It's just sort of visualizing the sort of impact on the economics of the L two road map.

图表真正开始下滑是在2024年初。

And where the chart really kinda drops off is, like, early twenty twenty four.

那正是我们引入blob之后不久。

That was right after we introduced, like, blobs.

对吧？

Right?

这使得L2将数据锚定到以太坊变得非常便宜。

And so it made it really cheap for for l twos to anchor data onto Ethereum.

基本上，以太坊的收入因此大幅下降，同时也因为有一部分以太坊L1用户现在转用了L2。

Basically, Ethereum's revenue declined significantly because of that and also just because there's a decent, you know, subset of Ethereum l one users that now use the l two.

所以你就收不到那些L1的基础交易费了。

And so they're you're not getting those kind of l one base fees.

我认为这其实很好地可视化了这一点。

And this is really kind of, I think, you know, visualizing it.

这是L2支付给L1的租金，而这张图表显示，这本质上是以太坊自我升级的结果，对我来说，这其实就是以太坊在自我颠覆。

This is the L2 rent paid down to L1, and that chart shows, like, it's really just the upgrade of Ethereum improving itself, which to me is Ethereum disrupting itself is really what happened here.

所以这并不罕见。

And so that's not, like, you know, uncommon.

就像软件领域，你经常能看到这种情况。

Like, this is something that, like, software, you you see this.

问题是，我们多年来看到亚马逊基本上一直处于亏损状态，因为他们想把成本保持在很低的水平，同时扩大网络效应。

And the question is and we saw we saw for years Amazon essentially, you know, operate at losses because they wanted to keep their costs really low, and they wanted to scale their network effects.

这对亚马逊来说效果非常好。

And that worked out very well for Amazon.

所以我们现在看到以太坊的情况是，它某种程度上自我颠覆了。

And so what we're seeing right now with Ethereum is they've sort of, like, disrupted themselves.

他们为最终用户改进了产品，但这对于以太坊所捕获的价值来说，并不是一个很好的权衡。

They've they've improved their product for their end customer, but it's not really a great trade off in terms of, like, the value accrual that that Ethereum is capturing.

我认为未来他们有可能找到方法捕获更多这部分价值，但我认为这些图表只是直观地呈现了已经发生的事情。

I do think there are ways that they can, you know, potentially capture more of that value in the future, but I think this is a story that the charts kinda just, like, visualize what has what has played out.

有趣的是，从某种程度上说，费用确实崩溃了。

What's interesting about this at some level is, yes, fees have collapsed.

对吧？

Right?

我想，从积极的角度来看，即使费用暴跌，ETH 的估值仍然超过 2020 美元。

I guess the the sunny side of that or the optimistic take on that is even in spite of fees collapsing, ETH is still valued over $2.02 k.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

所以，市场在以太坊的价格中看到了一些其他东西，而这些并没有反映在费用上。

So there's something else that the market sees in here in the price of Ether, that is not being reflected in fees.

事实上，费用可能永远无法恢复到 2022 年的高点。

And it just is the case that, like, it it it could come to pass that fees never ever recover to the 2022 highs.

原因是，如果以太坊继续扩展区块空间，包括 L2 和 L1 的区块空间，正如其路线图所规划的那样，那么稀缺性就会降低，因为供应增加了。

The reason for that is if Ethereum continues to scale block space, both L2 block space and also L1 block space, as it intends to as part of its road map, then you get less scarcity because you have more supply.

除非需求超过你所创造的新供应量，否则费用将长期保持低位。

And unless demand outstrips the new supply that you're creating, fees will stay low in perpetuity.

但从某种角度来说，这不正是成功的情景吗？

But at some level, isn't that the success scenario?