以太坊为何必须改变其货币政策 | Sam Jernigan 和 Jerome de Tychey

所以，你经常听到流动性的网络效应，这确实是真的。

So, you know, you often hear about the network effects of liquidity, which is true.

所以最主流的LST会有最深的流动性，这会让它们变得更成功，但同样重要的是，它们越大，就越是大到不能倒，它们就会变得更大，因为这就是网络效应。

So the most dominant or LSTs will have the deepest liquidity and that will be what will the the network effects of that will cause them to become even more successful, but it is also the case that the bigger they are, the more the the more too big to fail that they are, the more the bigger they're gonna get because that that is a network effect.

我实际上认识一些研究人员，他们用过Abe，抱歉，不是Abe，是Lido，因为第一，它流动性最好，第二，随着它变大，他们知道如果Lido出了什么事，它会被救助，这真的很可悲。

I'm going to I actually know researchers who have used Abe I'm sorry, not Abe, but Lido because A, it's the most liquid, and B, as it gets bigger, they know if something happens to Lido, it's gonna get bailed out, and that is sad.

这让人很沮丧。

That is it's depressing.

当我第一次知道这件事时，我简直说不出话来，是那个人在晚餐时告诉我的。

When I first found out about that, I was speechless when this person told me at dinner.

那差不多是两年前的事了。

It was almost two years ago.

那是在布鲁塞尔。

It was in Brussels.

听着，这个问题我们不能再拖了，必须马上处理。

Look, this is not a problem we can wait any longer to handle.

我觉得，让我也来谈谈这个问题，就是关于这对DeFi不利的说法。

I think let me also address this issue of somehow being bad for DeFi.

我完全不同意。

I totally disagree.

我对此感到震惊。

I was shocked by this.

我非常惊讶。

I was very surprised.

你知道，我觉得首先，再说一遍，

You know, I think that first of all, again,

让我来帮你把这个问题说清楚，Sam。

Let me let me set up the the question for you, Sam.

比如，在我和Stonie、Mike（来自Aave和Etherfy）录完播客之后，他们的看法是，如果这个EIP通过了，ETH会大量流出DeFi，因为质押收益会降低。

Like, after my podcast with Stonie and Mike from Aave and Etherfy, the the takeaway that they think will happen if this EIP goes through is there will be a mass exodus of the ETH out of DeFi because the staking yield will be lower.

激励也会减少。

The incentive will be lower.

你觉得那个

Do you do you think that that

准确吗？

is accurate?

循环质押ETH的补贴会降低。

The subsidy to loop your ETH will be lower.

是的。

Yes.

你觉得那准确吗？

Do you think that's accurate?

你觉得因为这个EIP，DeFi里的ETH会减少吗？

Do think that as a result of this EIP, there will be less ETH in DeFi?

我其实觉得会相反。

I actually think it'll be the opposite.

我其实觉得会发生的是价格会上涨。

I actually think that what will happen is the price is going to go up.

你会迎来一波史诗级的牛市，对杠杆和循环质押的需求会飙升到天际。

You're gonna have an epic bull market, and the demand for leverage and looping is gonna go stratospheric.

等等，我其实——

I actually Wait.

在ETH发行量降低、补贴减少的情况下，你觉得循环质押会增加？

With with with a reduced subsidy in of ETH because the issuance is lower, you think the looping will increase?

是的。

Yes.

对。

Yes.

但是，因为我以为你想要循环质押来……

But Because I thought you want I thought you want the looping to to

价格会涨上去的。

Your price is going to go up.

当你停止稀释ETH持有者时，ETH的价格就会上涨。

The price of ETH is going to go up when you stop diluting ETH holders.

对吧？

Right?

而且我觉得，不只是持有ETH的人。

When you and I guess it's not just raw ETH holders.

这是系统层面的问题。

It's at a system level.

对吧？

Right?

从系统层面看，ETH的通货膨胀率太高了，对市场来说负担太重，这样并不理想。

At a system level, ETH has too high inflation, it's too much for the market, and it's suboptimal.

顺便说一句，当你调整货币政策时——而且以太坊的架构是，我们实际上拥有一个结合了财政和货币政策的体系。

By the way, when you make the monetary And by the way, Ethereum is set up such that we have what is basically a combined fiscal and monetary policy.

我们没有国会来拨款、支出，

We don't have Congress that funds programs Spends,

对，是的。

right, yeah.

支出和独立的联邦储备，我们有一个联合的

Spends and an independent Federal Reserve, we have a joint

支出和发行是一回事，因为那只是

Spending and issuing is the same thing because it's just

印钱。

the money printing.

当你有一个联合权力机构时，印钱的定义就是这样。

Definition of money printing when you have a joint authority.

所以现在，这种印钱只是在补贴这一项活动，显然他们承认这是一种他们认为需要的补贴。

And so right now that money printing is just going to subsidize this single activity, which apparently they acknowledge it is a subsidy that they think they need.

其实，我几天前在推特上说过这个。

I actually I said this on Twitter a couple days ago.

首先，我认为当你减少发行量时，ETH的价格会上涨。

First of all, I think that the price of ETH is going to go up when you reduce the issuance.

这纯粹是数学上的必然。

That is just mechanically mathematical.

我觉得第二点，部分是因为这是意料之外的货币政策变化，而且是收紧政策，按理说几乎应该会带来正面的价格反应。但第二点，它让以太坊更有可信度。发出信号并真正进行这样的讨论，让人们在很多方面了解这一点，也许反对的声音实际上是有益的。

I think the second partially because this is unexpected, an unexpected monetary policy change that is a tightening of policy should almost by default result in a positive price reaction, but two, it makes Ethereum more credible, Signaling and actually having this conversation and people learning this in a lot of ways, maybe the pushback against this is actually beneficial.

整个华尔街和所有公司都会了解到以太坊的独特之处和特别之处。

All of Wall Street and all of the companies out there are gonna learn what makes Ethereum different and special.

他们会意识到以太坊是无法被控制的，它是最可信的中立者，这将带来更多的采用和增长。

You know, they're gonna realize that Ethereum is not able to be captured, that it is the most credibly neutral, and that is going to mean more adoption and more growth.

所以这对以太坊的价格是有利的。

And so that is going to be positive for the price of ETH.

但我觉得第二点，我们在历史上几乎所有的经济情况中都能看到，一个国家的财政货币政策越可信，其金融体系就越稳健和充满活力。

But I think second of all, we see this in almost every economic situation in history where the more credible a fiscal monetary policy that a country has, the more robust and vigorous the financial system.

所以，如果你问为什么美国拥有世界上最大、最深的资本市场，人们会指出我们财政货币政策的长期实力和强大的国防。

And so that is what, you know, if you talk about why The US has the largest and deepest capital markets in the world, people point to the historical strength of our fiscal monetary policies and a robust national defense.

还有我们的法院系统，比如我们的法院……

Our court system as well, like our court of The

法治，对吧？

rule of law, right?

法治的

The rule of

法治，是的。

law, yeah.

所以绝对是这样。

So absolutely.

所以，这就回到了可信中立的类比。

So, and that goes to the credible neutrality analogy.

所以我实际上认为这是，我当时非常惊讶。

So I actually think that this is, so I was very surprised.

现在让我看看一种可能性。

Now let me just see one possibility.

我觉得也许在边缘上，而且我认为这对所有人都有好处，当然在州内，但也许在边缘上，你会看到DeFi协议，它们之前感觉被市场排挤，因为它们无法与这种借贷模式竞争。

I think that maybe on the margin, and I think that this would be good for everyone certainly in the in state, but maybe on the margin you'll see DeFi protocols that previously just felt like they were being pushed out of the market because they couldn't compete with this lending paradigm.

你会看到其他应用可能会在边缘上增长，这会是积极的，但也许在非常短期的边缘上，但我真的不这么认为。

You'll see other applications that will maybe on the margin grow, and that would positive, but maybe slightly on the margin in the very, very short term, but I really don't think so.

我觉得会是这样，而且我听到的时候很惊讶，到现在还是有点困惑。

I think it will be and I was surprised to hear it, I'm still a little baffled by it.

我觉得我能理解那些上过你节目或者活跃在推特上的嘉宾的立场，唯一的解释就是他们非常短视，而且坦白说非常悲观。

I think that the only way I can really rationalize the position that some of the guests that have appeared on your show and others that are on Twitter is that they're being basically very short term oriented and frankly very negative.

我对以太坊的愿景比他们的宏大得多。

Like, my vision for Ethereum is so much grander than theirs.

我完全不明白他们为什么要为了这种短期结果去优化，你知道，当你站在一个价值10万亿或20万亿美元的以太坊之上，而不是一个被降级到像Cosmos那样未来的以太坊，唯一能解释他们行为的就是极端的短视，以及没有充分认识到以太坊的潜力。

I I just don't even understand why they would want to optimize for this short term outcome when, you know, when when sitting up atop an ETH, you know, an Ethereum that's worth 10 or 20,000,000,000,000 versus one that is relegated to a future like Kosmos, that's the only way to kind of explain their behavior is is extreme short termism and a lack of fully appreciating the upside that Ethereum has.

我想多听听你为什么认为这对DeFi有好处。

I wanna hear a little bit more about why you think this would be good for DeFi.

我最初的反应是，如果你取消发行，取消补贴，减少总量，你知道，循环贷款和其他类似活动为市场提供的总量。

My my initial reaction is that if you take away the issuance, you take away the subsidy, you reduce the total amount of, you know, new that looping and other activities like looping provides to the market.

所以市场必须收缩，尤其是如果循环贷款加速，比如说这个EIP通过了，循环贷款只会加速我们达到50%的进程。

And so that market must contract, especially if if, you know, looping accelerates the say say this EIP goes through, looping just accelerates our road to 50%.

如果循环贷款让总ETH接近50%，那为什么还要循环呢？

And if looping at all gets the total ETH approach to to approach 50%, why loop at all?

这样一来，激励就会消失得更快。

Like, the incentive dries up so much more quickly.

我的意思是，除了循环借贷，还有其他事情可以做。

Other things to do than just loop is what I'm saying.

对吧？

Right?

你明白吗？

You know?

你可以把这些资金用到其他各种地方，但是当这些过多的发行量通过共识机制全部涌入循环借贷时，其他领域的探索者就不会有足够的兴趣、资金和动力去开拓那些其他方向了。

You could pay it to all types of other things that but builders aren't going to be there's not gonna be the interest, the capital, and the motivation to explore those others when they're being crowded out by this excess issuance that is solely go that is being only routed through the consensus mechanism into looping.

我想就借贷本身说几句。

I would like to jump in on the on lending itself.

比如，如果你们把借贷拿掉，未来六到十八个月借贷会是什么样子？

Like, if you if you take lending what's the future of lending in the next, six to eighteen months?

大量真实世界资产和代币化正在进入区块链。

Have a massive amount of RWA and tokenization that's coming to that's coming on blockchain.

希望它们能留在以太坊上，那会是它们的主要选择，决定在哪里落地。

Hopefully, they will stay on on Ethereum, and that would be their their main pick in term of where to where to land.

这不仅仅是回购市场，全球回购市场将会改变，利用这些平台以不同于以往的方式运作，全天候运行，带来很多优势。

That's that's just the repo markets, the global repo market that is going to change and use those kind of venues to, to funk to function differently than they were before, twenty four seven with lots of advantages.

我希望在这种情况下，以太币能被视为一种优质抵押品，而不仅仅是你用来循环操作的东西。

I wanna see Ether as a pristine collateral in this case, and not just something that you, loop on.

对吧？

Right?

这就像自然而然的事情。

Just like the natural natural thing to do so.

关于减少稀释、提高价格的关系，这在宏观经济文献中已经明确确立了。

There's, the relationship with a less dilutive, more price, is something that's clearly established in the in the in the macroeconomic literature.

比如，在其他条件相同的情况下，你稀释得越少，价格就应该上涨得越好。

Like, the less you dilute, all things being equal, you should just have a better price appreciation.

从安全角度来看，这是一个非常复杂的领域，需要仔细权衡，但不仅仅是ETH的数量问题。

And from a security perspective, just, it's it's a very complex spectrum to navigate, but it's not just the amount of ETH estate.

重要的是ETH质押量的价值。

It's the value of the amount of ETH estate.

所以我们这里有机会通过推高价格来获得更高的安全性。

So we have a we have an opportunity here to even get more security by pushing the price up.

我们收到的一个反应是，很多人经常说，嘿，这只是个小改动，你知道的，只是个小改动。

One of the reaction we had, one of the reaction we had is, very often time people were saying like, hey, it's just small, you know, it's just, it's just a small change.

就像我们已经稀释得很少了。

Like we already dilute so few.

对。

Yep.

但趋势比稀释本身更重要。

But the trend is more important than the dilution itself.

就像我们在逐步上升。

Like we are training up.

我们确实在通过增加质押量来逐步提高费用收入。

We are definitely training up in term of, amount of fee by growing a stake.

所以我们在稀释方面也在不断上升。

And thus we are training up in term of, in term of dilution.

所以市场认识到这种稀释是持续的，而且是复利式的，不会停止。

So the, the market recognize that this dilution is ongoing and it's compounding and it's not going to stop.

所以当人们说我们应该更专注于推动更好采用的事情时，实际上没有任何加密货币创业者会告诉你，我有比代币价格上涨更好的催化剂。

So when people are saying that we should focus more on things that propel better adoption, there's literally no crypto entrepreneur out there that will tell you like, I have a better catalyst than the token going up.

我得说，以太坊竟然变成了庞氏经济学的反面，这太奇怪了。

I have to say it's so bizarre that Ethereum has become the opposite of Ponzinomics.

现在我们想做相反的事情。

Now we wanna do the opposite.

我们想要稀释经济学。

We want to, like, dilute anomics.

你明白吗？

You know?

我的意思是，我们不想优化我们的政策，既要确保以太坊的安全，又要通过正确确保以太坊的安全来让价格上涨。

I mean, like, the the fact that, like, we we don't want to optimize our policy for both what is best at securing Ethereum and as a byproduct of getting it right to secure Ethereum makes the price go up.

你知道吗？

You know?

这真的是一个很奇怪的反乌托邦，在漫长的熊市中，以太坊的人居然失去了这种基本视角。

This is this is a rather strange, you know, dystopia of a very long bear market that Ethereum people have have somehow lost Yep.

这种基本视角。

This kind of basic perspective.

我们就从市场角度来看，当更多ETH被质押时会发生什么。

Let's just let's just look at what happened when we have a more ETH stake just from a market perspective.

所以当一半的ETH被质押时，按定义，另一半的ETH没有被质押。

So when half of the ETH are at stake, by definition, half of the leads are not at stake.

当60%被质押时，40%没有被质押。

When 60% are at stake, 40% are not at stake.

市场上大额购买的一个驱动因素，当然，是你的滑点有多大？

One of the driver of large purchase on the market is, of course, how how big is your slippage?

市场有多深？

How how deep is the market?

所以当你把更多的ETH投入质押，市场上可买的ETH就变少了。

So as you send more ETH towards staking, you are limiting the amount of ETH that is available for purchase.

所以有些人可能会说，对，这挺好的。

So So some people may say like, yeah, this is great.

比如，市场上没有更多ETH了，因为所有的ETH都在质押，但这其实对价格不利。

Like, there's no more ETH on the market because all the ETH are going at stake, but it's not good for the price.

谁会愿意持有一个资产，每次你想卖的时候，价格表现都不好，而且滑点还有1%到2%。

Who wanna hold an asset that, whenever you wanna sell it, you'll have, the price action is not that good, and whenever you wanna sell it, the the the slippage is one or 2%.

对吧。

Okay.

这其实也关系到DeFi的运作方式。

This is also something that that boils down to how DeFi function.

这不仅仅是回购市场和借贷。

It's it's not just a repo market and lending.

我们还有去中心化交易所。

We have DEXs.

我们现在有很多非常复杂的策略，随着新平台的涌现，也出现了很多非常高级的策略。

We now have a very complex strategies that are available, very sophisticated strategies that are appearing with the the new venues that are popping up.

而且你最近在播客上也聊了不少。

And you had more for on the on the on the podcast recently.

我们也知道那正在做v4相关的事情等等。

We know also that that is doing things with v four and so on.

这变得越来越复杂了。

This is getting very sophisticated.

现在我们能用ETH做的事情不只是循环借贷，我们应该给这些替代方案一个公平的机会，也不要自己贬低它们。

Now we have things we can do with our ETH that are not just looping, and we should give those alternative a decent chance and also not dew it ourselves.

让以太坊成为它应有的优质抵押品，也让它成为全球金融生态系统中应有的、无需信任的货币。

Make Ethereum the pristine collateral it should be, and also the money it should be, the trustless money it should be for the global financial ecosystem.

我觉得我从你们这里听到的是，如果我们减少补贴，减少为ETH质押而新发行的ETH数量，这实际上可能对DeFi经济有利，因为ETH被解锁，在共识协议之上更自由地流向市场，也可能让新的DeFi初创公司甚至现有的DeFi初创公司有更多ETH可用，去做更多事情，因为他们不必与一个他们无法竞争的对手竞争，那就是以太坊的中央银行，也就是发行协议。

I think what I'm hearing from you guys is that if we reduce the subsidy, we reduce the amount of new ETH issuance to pay for ETH staking, this might actually be a boon to the DeFi economy because Ether is unlocked and made more available to the free market on top of on top of the consensus protocol and might make Ether more available for new DeFi startups or even current DeFi startups to do more things with that Ether because they don't have to compete with somebody they can't compete with which is like the central bank of Ethereum which is the issuance protocol.

我很好奇Jerome是否不同意，但我的意思是，在传统经济学中，这叫做挤出效应。

I'd be curious if Jerome disagrees, but but but I mean, in traditional economics, you know, crowding out is the term that's used.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Mhmm.

对。

Mhmm.

你听那些ETF发行方和DATs聊比特币的时候，他们总说，哦，这太简单了。

When you hear from from ETF issuers and DATs about Bitcoin, they're so like, oh, it's so simple.

我们就说总量是2100万。

We just say it's 21,000,000.

虽然安全预算方面他们就是含糊其辞，比如，嗯，这个我们也不清楚。

Even though the the security budget is just hand waving, like, yeah, well, we we don't know.

比如，也许每次我们降低发行量，价格就会翻倍。

Like, maybe, like, the price will just double every time we we, we lower the issuance.

这其实就是比特币的玩法。

That's that's actually the play of of Bitcoin.

每四年，我们就开始减半，然后我们说，看，它变得更稀有了。

Every four years, we just have we just start halving, and we said, like, look, it's getting rarer.

有些人说，这不会适用于以太坊。

And some people are saying, like, this won't apply to Ethereum.

好吧。

Like, okay.

嗯，那我永远不会发现这一点。

Well, that's I will I will never detect this.

总之，这很奇怪。

Anyway It's very weird.

比特币的美妙之处在于它的简单，就是直接说，它是2100万，其他一切都藏在幕后。

Beauty of Bitcoin the beauty of Bitcoin is its simplicity of just saying, like, it's 21,000,000, and, everything else is, hidden behind the curtains.

我们并不真正知道它是否会成功。

We you don't really know if it's going to work or not.

我们有机会通过这个EIP，明确声明以太坊的最大稀释率是0.5%，并且我们的经济安全已经完全解决了。

We have the opportunity with this EIP to, make a very clear statement statement that is the max dilution that you're gonna have on Ethereum is point five, and we have our economic security fully figured out.

所以上限就是0.5%。

So it's point five max.

这就是你的稀释率。

That's your dilution.

这其实是在过去十天我们关于发行量的激烈讨论中开始浮现的一个问题。有些人，不管你觉得他们多资深，因为他们在这个领域已经待了十年甚至更久。

And that's actually something that's starting to arise in the discussion that we've been having for the past ten days, the heated discussion about issuance, is that some people, however sophisticated you think they could be because they've been in this space for like ten years, sometimes more.

他们见过DeFi里的各种东西等等。

Like, they've seen all the things on DeFi and so on.

然后他们突然开始意识到，他们的收益实际上是经过稀释调整的。

And suddenly they are starting to realize that their yield is actually dilution adjusted.

哦，我还需要调整稀释？

Oh, well, I need to adjust for dilution?

对。

Yeah.

你得把这个算进你的计算里。

You need to count that into your into your calculation.

而ETH的新持有者，那些来自机构的精明持有者，他们就会问这类问题。

And the the the new holders of ETH, the sophisticated holders that comes from institutions, that's the kind of question they ask.

比如，好的。

Like, okay.

那我到底能拿到多少？

Well, I'm I'm getting how much?

这么多？

This much?

但这些是从哪里来的？

But where is it coming from?

是来自增发吗？

It's coming from issuance?

好的。

Okay.

所以这就是稀释。

So there's a dilution.

那我调整后的收益是多少？

So what's my adjusted thing?

而且我在这上面还要交什么税？

And what kind of tax am I paying on top of this?

好的。

Okay.

让我算一下。

Let me compute that.

这个算术根本对不上。

The the arithmetic just doesn't fit.

这对以太坊来说是个重大改进，发行量要尽可能低，但又要满足需求，保持在0.5，这样容易理解。

That's that's a major improvement for Ethereum to have a a limited amount of issuance as low as possible, but as much as necessary, keep it 0.5, keep it easy to frame.

我不是特别执着于0.5，也许0.75更好，也许其他数字更好，但至少确保市场能找到平衡点，这才是我们需要的。

I'm not super hell bent on the 0.5, maybe 0.75 is better, maybe something else is better, but at least making sure that the market can find an equilibrium is what we need.

我们有足够的研究支持，证明0.5%是可以实现的，而且对我们的整体安全也有好处。

And we have enough research backing to say that point five is achievable, and it's it's good for our security overall.

我们不应该让这个机会白白溜走。

We should not let this this opportunity flatten.

我想聊聊汤姆·李。

I wanna talk about Tom Lee.

因为汤姆·李是过去一年里BITMINE最大的买家，也是以太坊最大的买家，他投了大约120亿美元进以太坊。

Because Tom Lee has been the single largest buyer of BITMINE has been the single largest buyer of ETH in the last year by far because he's plowed, like, $12,000,000,000 into ETH.

而且他这么做的原因之一就是质押收益。

And, like, one of the one of the reasons that he did that was the staking yield.

所以BITMIN每年大概能拿到2.5亿美元的质押收益。

So BITMIN is getting something like a $250,000,000 a year in staking yield.

他拿这个来向华尔街和以太坊的边缘买家推销以太坊，说它是个不错的资产和投资。

And he's, like, using that to tout Ether as an asset, Ether as investment to Wall Street and to, like, the marginal buyer of ETH.

所以我这里有两个担忧。

And so there's two concerns that I have here.

首先，如果这个提案通过了，那个最近最大的以太坊买家，刚刚投了100亿、120亿美元进以太坊，本来指望拿到质押收益的，结果以太坊之前的货币政策承诺给他的质押收益就没了。

First, like, we just kind if we if this proposal goes through, the recent single largest buyer of Ether ever who just plowed 10 billions of dollars $10,000,000,000 into ETH, $12,000,000,000 into ETH, with the promise of getting staking yield is not gonna have the staking yield that that the monetary policy of Ethereum previously told him he was going to get.

所以我知道我们想建立可信的中立性，但还有一点就是，你知道，不要篡改货币发行机制以至于伤害到别人。

And so I know we're trying to create credible neutrality, but there's also something about, like, you know, don't tamper with the monetary issuance in so that it harms people.

这其实也是加密货币行业的一种精神。

It's kinda like an also an ethos in the crypto industry.

所以我们这是在伤害我们见过的最大单一以太坊买家。

And so, like, we're kind of harming our single largest buyer of Ether that we've ever seen.

而且，我们也没有那个收益来向华尔街和其他人宣传了，他之前就是用这个来说服别人买以太坊的。

And, also, we don't really have this, like, yield to advertise to, like, Wall Street and everyone else that he is he is using to sell Ether to everyone else.

所以，尽管你们提出的那些论点我觉得都挺有道理的，但在我们最大的买家刚买了一大堆以太坊之后，就改变货币政策，这在观感上确实不太好。

And so despite all of your guys' arguments with it, which I think are good, I'm optics of it, of changing monetary policy right after our largest buyer ever buys a bunch of ETH is is not great.

Sam，你怎么看这个问题？

Sam, how would you respond to that?

嗯，我认识Tom很久了，至少十五年了。

Well, I've known Tom for a long time, at least fifteen years.

Tom非常聪明，我觉得他宁愿在以太坊价格达到三万美元的时候拿50个基点或者100个基点的收益，也不愿意在以太坊价格一千美元的时候拿2%的收益。

Tom is very smart and I think that Tom would much rather get 50 bips or a 100 basis point yield on a I think his target is $30,000 ETH than he would 2% on a $1,000 ETH.

所以，如果汤姆没有这么做，我会很惊讶，真的会很惊讶。

And for that reason, I would be surprised if Tom did not, know, I would be surprised.

我没有直接和他谈过，也不想替他说话，但如果他没有考虑自己的最佳利益，以及对他股东的责任，我会很惊讶，因为这是他的义务。

I have not spoken to him directly and I don't want to speak for him, but I would be surprised if he did not look at his, what was in the best interest of himself, and importantly for his shareholder because that's what he has an obligation to.

而且，这其实归根结底是本金价值和利息价值之间的权衡。

And, you know, this really goes down to the value of your principal versus the value of your coupon.

我觉得我也试图对单独质押者说明这一点。

And, I think that I tried to make this case to for solo stakers as well.

你知道，无论短期、中期还是长期，你都不会得到以太坊在最优发行设置下所能带来的那种价格增长。

You know, you are not going to get the type of price appreciation for short, medium, or long term that you would get with an optimal issuance setting for Ethereum.

所以，再回到汤姆，如果我看他的预测，我觉得他对以太坊未来的看好程度和我一样。

And so, again, just going back to Tom, if I look at, you know, his forecast, you know, he's as bullish on, I think, the future of Ethereum as I am.

所以，如果他不像我这样看待这个问题，不想在以太坊成为全球金融体系的可信中立结算层、价格达到3万、5万甚至10万美元时赚取50个基点或1%的收益，我会非常惊讶。

And so, I would be very surprised if he didn't see it the way that I did and want to earn 50 bips or 1% on, you know, you know, a 30,000 or 50 or a $100,000 ETH that where Ethereum is the credibly neutral settlement layer for the global financial system.

而另一种选择是，你保留2%的收益，但我们会走向Cosmos，而ATOM代币确实每天都在下跌。

And the alternative is you keep your 2% and we are on the road to cosmos, which literally the atom taken goes down every single day.

这里的类比非常相似。

And the analogy between here is very similar.

我觉得这就是我的看法，也许Jerome会有不同的意见。

And I think that this is, know I think, so that's how I feel about it, maybe Jerome can weigh in differently.

对，记得五月底或六月初的时候，Tom Lee发推说他不反对调整发行量，但需要达成广泛共识，并且要做好准备等等。

Yeah, remember back in late May or early June, Tom Lee tweeted that he is not opposed of an issuance change, but he does to come with a large consensus and be whatever, like prepared and so on.

他还没有就此事表态，我希望他能在某个时候表达一下。

And he hasn't expressed himself on the matter and I hope he will at some point.

但是，让我们从相反的角度来看。

But let's take the let's take the opposite argument.

比如说，如果发行量真的，如果质押收益真的能推高ETH，而不考虑安全问题，那我们为什么不把收益率提高两倍、三倍甚至四倍，看看会发生什么？

Like, if if issuance is really like, if if staking yield is really bringing ETH up, without any consideration regarding security, yeah, why don't we, like, two x or three x or four x the, the yields and and see what happens?

对，如果你能把我们送到NAMIK，那我们就去，走一趟。

Like, yeah, if you can send us to NAMIC, let's go and and make the make the trip.

为什么不呢？

Why not?

但正如山姆刚才说的，当你在ETF里持有一种资产时，你有本金，还有利息。

But as as Sam just said, like, when you are a GA in an ETF, you have your principal and and and your coupon.

你明白吗，你把收益当作利息来卖。

Do you see that you you you sell the yield as the coupon?

所以有时候你很难解释清楚，比如，它支付3%的利息，但对于一个应该保值的资产来说，这看起来有点多。

So sometimes you you must have a a hard time explaining like, okay, it's paying 3%, but that's that seems a lot for something that's supposed to hold value.

它真的保值吗？

Like, is it holding its value?

然后他们打开图表，看到它就在这个区间里波动，没什么变化，就像，嘿。

And then they open the the chart and like, yeah, it's sort of, in this range and not really moving around like, hey.

对。

Yeah.

如果本金的故事不吸引人，其实没人真正在乎那点利息。

Like, nobody cares really about the coupon if the narrative on the principle, it's not something that's, that's convincing.

所以，从纯DAT ETF的角度来看，反对减少发行量是双重不利的。

So I think opposing the issuance reduction from a pure DAT ETF perspective is twice detrimental.

首先，它说，嗯，最小化稀释并不是那么重要。

Like, first it says, well, minimal minimizing dilution is not so important.

它说，我们并不是在支持那些能改善资产保值特性的根本性变化。

It says, we we we're not we're not backing up fundamental changes that's going to improve the store value characteristic of the asset.

所以这么说很奇怪，比如，哦，你不想减少发行量。

So it's a weird thing to say, like, yeah, oh, you you you don't want the issuance reduced.

你的理由是什么？

What is your reason?

哦，对。

Oh, yeah.

DeFi的问题等等。

DeFi problems and so on.

这太纠缠不清了。

It's so intertwined.

我们不想碰那个。

Like, we don't wanna touch that.

对。

Yeah.

但是关于这个资产，有解决方案是好的。

But about the asset is it's it's good to have resolution.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Yeah.

但是，你知道，我觉得你现在处境挺难的。

But, you know, like, you're you're in a in a difficult spot, I think.

其次，当你说反对减少发行量，作为DAT的ETF，你是在说，我们接受ETH的实际用例和唯一用例就是作为质押衍生品或在质押场所里待着。

And secondly, when you say I oppose the issuance reduction as an ETF for a a DAT, you're saying, like, well, we accept that the de facto use case and only use case of ETH is just to to sit as a staking derivative or in a staking venue.

基本上什么都不做，并没有真正促进采用或创新，也没有帮忙，除了从租金中提取一些费用。

Mostly doing nothing, not really promoting adoption or innovation, not, you know, not, not not helping out, except for extracting some fees out of the rent.

但很快你就会面临一个问题，比如，稀释率是1%。

But soon enough, you'll have the question, like, well, the dilution is 1%.

收益率是2%。

The the yield is 2%.

调整后剩下的就只有1%了。

What's left is just 1% adjusted.

那真的值得付这么多吗？

So is that really paying this much?

好。

Okay.

我要对资产本身重新定价一下。

I'm I'm going to, I'm going to do a little repricing of the, of the of of the principle itself.

所以，如果我们不尽力去最大化它的安全性和可信度，同时最小化每个持有者要承担的稀释，那资产本身怎么升值呢？

So, yeah, how is the principle supposed to raise in value if, if we are not doing everything we can to maximize its security, its credibility, and at the same time minimize the dilution that every holder has to bear.

我们来谈谈单独质押者。

Let's talk about solo stakers.

对这个EIP的常见反应是，它降低了单独质押者参与单独质押的能力。

The common response, to this EIP was that this reduces the ability for solo stakers to participate in solo staking.

而单独质押者作为以太坊结构的一部分，是最后一道防线。

And solo stakers as part of the Ethereum structure are the defenders of last resort.

就是说，以太坊必须有单独质押者，否则整个项目就玩不转了。

Like, we must have solo stakers in Ethereum or else this whole project doesn't work.

对，没错。

And Yep.

通过减少为安全而发行的以太币数量，你直接伤害了单独质押者，而且这种伤害比其他任何以太坊质押环节都要大，因为单独质押者的固定成本最高。

By reducing the amount of Ether issued for security, you directly harm solo stakers disproportionately versus any other part of Ethereum staking complex simply because solo stakers have the highest fixed costs.

你知道，Lido或者其他任何质押池，固定成本都很低，而且它们规模大，很容易扩展。

You know, Lido or any other, like, staking pool has, like, low fixed costs, and they can scale very well simply by their size.

但是任何奖励的减少对单独质押者的伤害最大，因为他们要自己掏钱买机器、付网费、电费，还要保证运行时间，这些都得自己承担。

But any decrease in rewards harm solo stakers the most because they're the ones who are paying for the machine, the Internet, the electricity, the uptime, all that kind of stuff.

那么，你们怎么回应这种批评，说这个方案会把单独质押者挤出去，反而有利于那些你们本来想压制的所谓“卡特尔”呢？

So how would you guys respond to the critique that this pushes out solo stakers in favor of the cartel, the quote, unquote, cartels that you guys are trying to to minimize in the first place.

Sam，你怎么看？

Sam, how would you respond?

权益证明的历史就是，你知道，它们一直被卡特尔组织超越。

The history of proof of stake is that, you know, they have been overtaken by cartels.

对吧？

Right?

其他权益证明，不是以太坊。

Pre other proof of stakes, not Ethereum.

对。

Correct.

而且

And

所以当我们用“卡特尔”这个词的时候，我们指的不是以太坊的任何实体，而是指外面的那个“卡特尔怪物”，那个吓人的东西。

And so we're we're we're when we use a cartel word, we're not talking about any Ethereum entity, but we're talking about the boogeyman, the cartel boogeyman out there.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Correct.

对。

Correct.

没错。

Right.

说到独立质押者，每个人都可以说自己是独立质押者，但有时候他们只是有一个独立质押节点，然后发布一些引力波，或者已经在社区活跃了相当长一段时间。

Soda stakers, Everybody can come and say, I'm a solo staker, but sometimes they just have a they just have a solo staking node, and they are posting gravities or or they've been active in the community for quite some time.

我能说出大概十到十二个我认识的独立质押者，包括我自己，他们都支持这种发行量调整。

I can name probably ten, twelve solo stakers that I know, including me, that are pro this kind of issuance, this kind of issuance change.

其他人呢，你知道，有些反对，有些比较谨慎，他们想深入研究一下，随着时间推移，他们需要做出更明智的决定来支持与否。

The other ones are, you know, some are some are against, some are more composed, they wanna dig more into it, they gotta make a better, more informed decision to support it or not as time go.

但你说得对。

But you're right.

比如，以太坊的设计初衷就是支持独立质押，这是个很重的词，因为出于各种原因，我们不得不设定32个ETH的最低质押要求。

Like, Ethereum has been designed to be solo stakable, and that's a that's a pretty strong word because we have to impose a minimum stake of 32 ETH for various reasons.

比如，我们不希望网络有5万个质押节点，因为那样的话，网络吞吐量在旧网络上传输区块时会很糟糕，或者类似的原因。

Like, we don't want the network to be 50,000 staking nodes because the the network throughput will have a bad time sending the blocks across the old network or those kind of reasons.

所以我们有这32个ETH。

So we have this 32 ETH.

32个ETH可能是一笔不小的钱，但尽管如此，只要你有足够的资金并且技术能力不错，你应该能够运行一个节点。

And 32 ETH can be a a meaningful amount of money, but nevertheless, you should be able to speed a node when you have enough financial resources and you are decently technical.

我们有很多很棒的组织在做这方面的工作，确保大家真的能去参与质押。

Like, we have a lot of great organizations that are doing the work out there to make sure that, it's accessible to actually go and stick.

关于这个EIP本身，以及单独质押者，我们一直在纠正自己的说法，努力确保不会误导大家，让大家以为这个EIP是在拯救单独质押者。

Now regarding the EIP itself and, solo stakers, we've been correcting our own language and trying to make sure that we we don't lead people into a misunderstanding that this EIP is saving the solo stakers.

不是的。

No.

它并不是。

It's it's not.

我不会试图去美化它。

I'm not going to to try to to try to make it up.

我们不能声称这个提案会保留单独质押者的份额。

We we cannot claim that this proposal will preserve solo stakers share.

我们确实做不到。

We we don't.

关于这个问题的研究结果其实是有分歧的，我们不能假装不是这样。

Like, the the net the research on the matter is genuinely split, and we cannot pretend otherwise.

但我们主张的范围要窄得多。

But what we claim is quite narrower.

现在的曲线正在把独立质押者挤出去。

Today's curve pushes the solo stakers out.

就是这样。

That's it.

这就是它的作用。

That's that's what it does.

稀释在加剧，税负会到来，而且已经在影响名义数量，而且没有任何平衡机制能阻止这种情况。

Delusion rises, tax will hit and is already hitting the the nominal number, and there's no equilibrium to stop that either.

所以现状比改变更糟，因为现状会把独立质押者挤出去，可能速度更快，虽然在这个问题上有分歧，但我认为可能更快，而且最终我们会陷入更糟糕的境地，一个稀释更严重、质押集中在少数几个地方、独立质押者大幅减少的局面。

So the status quo is worse than the change because the status quo will push the solar staker out, arguably faster, but it's split on the matter, but I think arguably faster, and we'll end up in a much worse situation, a situation where we have more dilution and more concentration of stake in a few venues and way less solo stakers.

所以，减少发行量可以缓解稀释压力，以及名义数字上的税收压力，让我们达到一个平衡状态。

So the tapering of the of the issuance remove the pressure regarding dilution, the pressure regarding tax on the nominal numbers, and allow us to have an equilibrium.

而且这样做不会给小额质押者增加比大额质押者更重的负担。

And it's doing that without adding any burden that lands harder on the small stakers compared to the big stakers.

所以这种方式在所有地方都是一视同仁的。

So it's generally applied the same way everywhere.

我们只是从每个人的收益中抽取一小部分，而不是收取固定的费用。

We are taking a fraction of the yield from everyone and no fixed fee overall.

所以现状对个人质押者来说并不理想，但有些个人质押者并没有真正意识到这一点。

So the status quo is not a good place to be in regarding the other solo stakers, and some solo stakers don't really realize that.

有些质押者会说，好吧。

Some stakers are like, okay.

嗯，我更关心我的本金，所以你在削减我的收益。

Well, I care more about my principal, so you're cutting my coupon.

那没关系。

That's okay.

我希望我的本金能上涨。

I want my my principal to go up.

所以他们支持这个方案，因为他们相信这会对价格产生后续影响。

So they are supporting this because they they believe in the the in the after effect regarding the price.

有些人对成本不太敏感，比如固定的500美元硬件费用和时间成本之类的。

Some are way less sensible to to costs, like a fixed fixed cost of $500 of hardware and time and so on.

那不算多。

It's not that much.

所以他们会说，对，我不在乎。

So they're like, yeah, I'm not sensible.

我已经质押了32个ETH了。

I've 32 ETH already at stake.

但尽管如此，税收和稀释的影响首先会作用在质押者这个层面。

But nevertheless, the the the tax effect and the dilution effect applies at first at the sort of stakers level.

他们就像森林里的蝴蝶，我喜欢这么比喻，而现状对他们的打击更大。

They are the butterfly in the forest, as like to I like to to frame it, and the the status quo is hitting them harder.

不管发生什么，他们都会被挤出去，但挤出后的平衡状态可能根本不存在，而且他们会面临更大的稀释，对所有人都是如此。

They will get pushed out whatever happened, but the equilibrium that will be post sort of stickers out may not exist, and they will be out with much more dilution for everyone.

所以我们不想声称我们在保护他们。

So we don't we don't wanna claim that we are protecting them.

我们想说的是，我们让他们处于更好的状态。

We wanna claim that we are making them be in much better fashion.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得，不幸的是，到时候可能没什么可保护的了。

I think, unfortunately, there'll be nothing to protect.

我的意思是，就像我说的，我和一个朋友共用一个验证节点，但如果我对ETH资产的长期前景不看好，那这个活动对我来说就不值得。

I mean, like I said, I share a validator with a friend, but if I'm not bullish on the long term outlook for ETH asset, that activity is not worth it to me.

所以我可能会，你知道，要求关闭那个验证节点。

And so I'll probably, you know, ask that we shut down that validator.

对。

Yeah.

作为单独质押者，你要承担运营风险，嗯，是的。

As a as a solo stakers, you have, the operational risk and the yeah.

你要承担运营风险。

You have the operational risk to bear.

但当你把钱投入LST时，你既要承担运营风险，还要承担LST本身固有的风险。

But when you are putting your money into an LST, you have the operational risk and also the the the risk that's inherent into the the LST.

可以说，单独质押者的运营成本比其他人高，但他们只需要承担一种成本。

Arguably, the the operational cost of the solo stakers are higher than where is out there, but they have one just one cost to bear.

他们只需要承担一种风险。

They have one risk to bear.

降低质押收益率，让市场找到平衡点，也给了我们一个机会，去找到一个既能保住一些单独质押者，又能让市场同时达到平衡的收益率水平。

And lowering the staking yield and allowing the market to find an equilibrium is also giving us a chance to find the yield amount that is both enough to save some solo stakers and also to have the market lend the equilibrium at the same time.

但我们会先走出来。

But we will come out first.

这是个开放性问题，但可以肯定的是，目前的现状对独立质押者已经非常不利了。

It's an open question, but what's for sure is that the current status quo is very much detrimental to the sales stakers already.

但也要记住，独立质押者并不是大到不能倒。

But remember also that solo stakers are not too big to fail.

最大的质押池才是。

The largest staking pools are.

所以，如果最大的池子变得那么大，以至于毫无疑问地大到不能倒，那你为什么还要继续做独立质押者呢？

And so why would you remain a solo staker if the largest pools get so big that they are undoubtedly too big to fail?

这是一种不理性的行为，尤其是当你对其长期可信的中立性以及你当初加入时所认同的价值观信心不足的时候。

That that is an irrational behavior especially for one that you now have less confidence in its long term credible neutrality and the values that you signed up for.

所以，你知道，我再次认为，除了Jerome刚才提到的那些纯粹经济上的原因之外，还有其他一些原因，就像我刚才提到的那些。

So, you know, I again, for reasons that are not as purely economic that Jerome just went through, I think that there are other reasons that like what I just mentioned.

我觉得这里还有其他角度。

I think that there's other angles here as well.

我认为过高的发行量实际上——你不会找到相关研究，这方面没有研究。

I think the too high issuances is actually and you will not find there's not research on this.

这是一个尚未被探索的领域，但你知道，很长一段时间以来，很多比特币是在伊朗和中国挖的。

This is an unexplored topic area, but you know, for a very long time a lot of Bitcoin has been mined in Iran and China.

这些国家要么是人们想把钱转出去，比如从中国资本外逃，你实际上是用人民币买比特币，然后再换成泰达币之类的。

Countries either where people wanna get money out because for capital flight out of China, for example, where you're effectively spending your RMB to receive Bitcoin and then swap that into Tether, for example.

或者，你可以在阿根廷或伊朗这样的地方挖矿，这些地方通货膨胀很高，你同样想用当地货币换取一种能保值、抗通胀的资产。我认为，如果我们限制中心化质押池的增长，实际上可以看到质押操作在地理上更加分散。

Or you know, you mine in Argentina or Iran or places where the inflation is very high and you want to again spend your local currency to get an asset that retains its value that you can and has a better inflationary profile, I think that we should actually, we could see a if we limit the growth of the centralized staking pools, you could actually see a better diversification geographically of staking operations.

再说一次，我不认为你会看到任何关于这方面的研究，但我认为这是因为，这些资产的经济稳健性正是他们想要拥有的。

Again, don't think you're gonna see any research on this, but I think that that is because, again, you you're the the economic soundness of the asset is one that they want to own.

对。

Mhmm.

对。

Mhmm.

是的。

Yeah.

那么，也许我们可以总结一下关于独立质押者，以及我们如何帮助他们。

And and maybe to to conclude on solo stakers regarding how we can help them.

实际上，真正对单独质押者有帮助的，是让他们在竞争中更有优势的那些措施。

Actually, what what I what what actually work, for solo stakers to be more competitive with the rest.

比如现在提出的反相关认证惩罚，正被考虑纳入Hagoda。

You have anti correlation attestation penalties, that is now being proposed, for inclusion in Hagoda.

我觉得这跟最初设计的EIP 7716有点偏离了。

It's very I I think it's a bit far from the original design of this EIP seven seven one six.

它已经被Hoshin从OBO那边重新设计和调整过了。

It's been redesigned and reshaped by Hoshin from from OBO.

这类东西肯定会对单独质押者有帮助。

That's the kind of thing that will help solo stakers for sure.

就我个人而言，我挺支持这种做法的。

And personally, I I kinda support this kind of

有了lean，经济上的要求也会大幅降低。

The economic requirements also go down significantly with lean.

对吧？

Correct?

对。

Yep.

是的。

Yeah.

确实。

Indeed.

而且我们还需要MEV销毁。

And and we need also MEV burn.

如果你想帮助独立质押者，我们需要MEV销毁。

If you want to help the solo stakers, we need MEV burn.

这也是另一个能让天平向独立质押者倾斜的因素。

That's also something also something that's going to tilt the scale in favor of other solo stakers.

但再说一次，现状对独立质押者来说是不可接受的。

But again, like the status quo isn't acceptable for solo stakers.

一旦他们都退出，我们就会说，是的，但我们的稀释率是1.3，而且随着时间推移，质押比例只会不可避免地越来越高。

And once they will be all out, we'll be like, yeah, but we have a dilution of 1.3 and we are in an inevitable trend of coming up and up and up in staking as time goes.

市场不是一次只动一个资产的。

Markets don't move one asset at a time.

今天比特币，明天英伟达，然后是黄金，再是标普。

One day, it's Bitcoin, the next Nvidia, then gold, and then the S and P.

但大多数交易者还是在不同的平台、不同的账户和不同的资金池里管理自己的投资组合。

But most traders are still managing their portfolio across different platforms, different accounts, and different pools of capital.

BITKEY刚刚改变了这一点。

BITKEY just changed that.

他们的新股票2.0产品让你直接用USDT交易代币化股票，而且就在你用来做加密货币的同一个应用里。

Their new stocks two point o product lets you trade tokenized equities directly with USDT, all inside the same app you already use for crypto.

这不仅仅是又一个代币化股票产品。

This is not just another tokenized stock product.

Stocks 2.0的设计围绕更深的流动性、更快的执行和市场上最低的费用，只要0.04%，并且与底层股票有1:1的经济敞口。

Stocks two point o is designed around deeper liquidity, faster execution, and the lowest fees on the market at just point zero four percent and one to one economic exposure to the underlying stock.

股息、拆股和其他公司行为都会自动反映，让你的持仓与你真正想接触的资产保持一致。

Dividends, stock splits, and other corporate actions are reflected automatically, helping your position stay aligned with the asset you actually want exposure to.

一个平台，一个账户，多个市场，加密货币、股票、大宗商品等等，都可以用USDT交易。

One platform, one account, multiple markets, crypto equities, commodities, and more, all accessible with USDT.

BITKEY。

BITKEY.

更聪明地交易。

Trade smarter.

今天就通过节目说明中的链接开始交易吧。

Start trading today through the link in the show notes.

这不是投资建议。

This is not investment advice.

有个好消息。

Some exciting news.

我们正在推出一个新播客，帮助大家了解加密货币周期，以及如何应对。

We are launching a new podcast to help people figure out the crypto cycle, how to navigate it.

我认识的最懂加密货币周期的人，他叫迈克尔·纳托。

The best crypto cycle investor I know, his name is Michael Nato.

他负责DeFi报告。

He runs the DeFi report.

就是这个人，在10月10日价格下跌之前给我发了卖出提醒。

This is the guy that sent me a sell alert before the 10/10 price drop happened.

他的周期分析一直非常准确。

His cycle analysis has been absolutely on point.

我关注他好几年了。

I've been following him for years.

今年我们开始每周录制播客节目。

And this year, we started recording weekly podcast episodes.

每一期我们都会聊他的投资组合、他持有什么、市场结构、入场目标、比特币和以太坊的公允价值，以及我们现在处于周期的哪个阶段。每周三都会发布新一期。

Each one, we get into his portfolio, what he's holding, the market structure, entry targets, fair market value of Bitcoin and Ether, and where we are in the cycle, there's new episodes that are released every Wednesday.

每期三十分钟。

They're thirty minutes.

时间不长。

They're short.

内容很精炼。

They're punchy.

我觉得这轮加密货币周期比大多数周期都难把握，所以让我们一起应对吧。

I think this crypto cycle is harder to navigate than most, so let's do it together.

去订阅这个播客吧。

Go subscribe to this podcast.

无论你在哪里听播客，YouTube、Apple、Spotify，或者节目说明里的链接，搜索DeFi报告就行。

Search the DeFi report wherever you get your podcasts, YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or find a link in the show notes.

现在有一期新节目在等着你。

There's a new episode waiting for you now.

我想问一下这个EIP背后的争议。

I wanna ask about the contention behind this EIP.

这是近年来我记得的争议最大的EIP之一。

This has been one of the most contentious EIPs in recent memory in years that I can really remember.

鉴于围绕它似乎有很多敌意和争议，你们计划怎么推动这个EIP通过呢？

What's your guys' plan to get this EIP through given that there's just seemingly a lot of hostility and contention around it?

简单来说，我们会保持积极态度，继续回应我们面临的各种论点，灵活调整，看看是否能得到好的理由来修改我们提出的参数，然后让PFI流程继续推进。

Well, very simply put, we're gonna keep our heads up, continue to respond to the different arguments that we are facing, adapt, see if we get see if we get good reasons to modify the parameters that we have laid out, and let the let the PFI process continue.

比如，我们有一个截止日期，就是10月26日，那是考虑纳入的截止日期。

Like, we have a like the twenty sixth of of October for the consideration for inclusion deadline.

我们希望让这场辩论继续下去。

We wanna let this this debate continue.

很高兴看到人们对这件事越来越了解。

It's great to see that people are more and more informed on the matter.

我们收到了很多有趣的反馈，可以用来调整。

We are getting interesting feedback to adjust.

有些人抱怨说，才过了十天，这个提案就应该撤回了。

Some people are complaining that this should have been withdrawn already after just ten days.

但恰恰相反，我们收到了很多积极的反馈。

But to the contrary, like, are getting a lot of positive things out there.

我们正在努力寻找一个大致共识，关于它应该往哪个方向走，以及我们应该如何调整。

We are trying to find the rough consensus on where it should go and how we should adapt.

而且我觉得，随着人们对这个问题越来越熟悉，也越来越清楚不作为的风险，接下来的几周里，你会看到一些让人意想不到的支持。

And I think you'll be surprised by the the type of endorsement that will come in the in the following weeks as people get more accustomed to the problem and more accustomed accustomed to the risk of doing nothing.

就算不是这次的分叉，下次也会是，但现在正是温和推进的好时机。

And if it's not for this fork, it will be for the next one, but the gentle path is now.

所以我们不应该让这个机会窗口白白溜走。

So we should not let this window of opportunity close.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这不是什么新问题，那些说这说那的人，很多其实是在误导你，很遗憾。

Mean, this is not a new issue, and those who a lot of those people who are claiming it was whatever, many of them, I think, unfortunately, misleading you.

这个问题至少已经存在五年了。

This is this this issue has been going on for at least five years.

以至于研究这个问题的研究人员现在几乎都放弃了。

So much so that the researchers who worked on it have now almost all given up.

我在ETH实验室的朋友们，真是可惜。

My friends over at ETH Labs, unfortunately.

说实话，他们真的已经精疲力尽了。

I mean, they genuinely have burned out on this.

对吧？

Right?

这至少可以追溯到2022年。

This goes back to at least 2022.

那时候，我们对验证者队列做了一个不对称的调整，放慢了新加入者的速度，但退出机制没变，因为当时这个问题就已经知道了，我们想留出更多时间，可能是2023年，我想给更扎实的研究留出更多时间。

At that time, we put in place an asymmetric change to the validator queue to slow down the rate of new entrants, but left it unchanged for exits because this was a problem known then and we wanted to provide more time, maybe it was '23, 2023, I wanted to provide more time for robust research.

你知道，Onsgar和Casper在2024年带着一个提案回来了。

Know, Onsgar and Casper came back in 2024 with a proposal.

这个提案提交给了所有核心开发者，Leidou提出了担忧，然后就被搁置了。

It was brought before all core devs, and Leidou raised concerns, and it was shut down.

那个提案比现在这个更激进，而且我们又过了两三年，我觉得实际上，从学术角度来看，真的没有什么更多可以探索的了。

That proposal was more aggressive than this one, and we've had another, what, two or three years now where I think actually, unfortunately, there's nothing really more to explore from a academic standpoint.

这几乎和那些唱反调的人说的完全相反。

It's almost the exact opposite of what the naysayers say.

所以我想说，你知道，虽然有时候我在X上说话太冲会后悔，但你知道，在很多情况下，你看，我进入这个领域是冒着损害自己声誉和职业的风险的，我发表强硬言论也是冒着个人声誉和职业的风险，所以你应该明白，这不是轻率之举。

So I will say like, you know, while sometimes I regret my spiciness on X, it's it's, you know, I'm in many in many cases, look, I I am in this space at the risk to my own reputation and career, And, I make strong statements at personal risk to my reputation and career, and so you should appreciate that it's not done lightly.

我不是为了追求推特粉丝或者其他什么。

I'm not seeking Twitter followers or anything else.

我这么做是因为我非常关心以太坊，而且我已经全身心投入以太坊，如果不去捍卫以太坊的可信中立性，我看不到任何出路。

I'm doing it because I care very deeply about Ethereum and because I have gone all in on on Ethereum and I don't see a path without defending Ethereum's credible neutrality.

而这是我们保护它的最低限度。

And, this is the minimum we can do to protect that.

而且，对我来说，再说一遍，我不认为这是杰罗姆的立场，但我觉得对我来说，这有点像是一个生死攸关的时刻。

And, I for me, and again, I do not think this is Jerome's position, but I think for me this is a bit of an existential kind of moment.

我认为以太坊社区确实需要，你知道，既要关注他们在Twitter上关注的人的经济利益，也需要在这个问题上自己做点功课。

I think that Ethereum community really needs to, you know, both look at the economic interests of the people they follow on Twitter, but they also need to do a little bit of, you know, do your own homework on this issue.

有一个很棒的网站，最初由卡斯珀维护，叫issuance.wtf。

There's a wonderful website originally maintained by Casper called issuance.wtf.

那里有太多研究，你根本看不完。

There's so much research there, you'll never be able to get through it.

不过你可以让你的Claude去查查，然后问一些问题。

But maybe point your claud at it and ask some questions.

所以不管那些反对者怎么说，不管是说太仓促了，还是说需要更多研究，或者有其他担忧，这些其实都已经被提出来过了，而且，你知道，这有点……在我看来，已经没有真正站得住脚的反对意见了。

So there's nothing like, you know, whatever the naysayers say, whether it's like it's been rushed or it's like we need to do more research or there's concerns, all of those things have been brought before and it it, you know, this is getting a bit there are no real defensible remaining objections in my opinion.

再说，我自己对这个方案也不是很满意。

Again, I'm not even very happy with this.

Jerome会告诉你，EIP发布的那天早上，我给他打电话，非常生气，因为我对那个十八个月到两年的实施时间不满意。

Jerome will tell you the morning the EIP dropped, I called him very upset because I was not happy with the eighteen month, two year implementation.

我觉得那不可接受。

I thought it was unacceptable.

但我现在在这里，是因为我在妥协。

And yet, I'm here because I am compromising.

我在这里为它辩护，是因为我意识到我们需要为以太坊做最好的事情，即使那不是最优的。

I'm here defending it because I realized that we need to do what is best for Ethereum even if it is suboptimal.

我的意思是，那天早上我对他说的原话大概是：他们已经花了五年时间来调整，不需要再多两年了。

I mean, my I think maybe the exact thing I said to him that morning was they've already had five years to adjust, they don't need another two years.

我说的不是DeFi协议，那不是我原本的意思，这让我们有点意外。

And I don't mean they being DeFi protocols, that was not what I had in mind, this has been a bit of a surprise to us.

我真正指的是质押服务提供商。

What I really meant is the staking service providers.

因为他们都参与了这场辩论，你知道的。

Because all of them have been involved in this debate, you know.

Lido实际上有个人，叫Artem，每次以太坊基金会赞助的发行量讨论他都会出现。

Lido actually has an individual, Artem, who shows up at every single Ethereum foundation sponsored issuance conversation.

他主张的是最大可行发行量吗？

And he argues for is it maximal viable issuance?

那是什么？

What is it?

他基本上主张的立场和以太坊历史上的立场完全相反。

He basically argues for the exact opposite of Ethereum's historical position.

所以实际上他们派了一个人，我觉得他其实不是为Lido工作的，好像是给CyberFun工作的，他每次出现，而且总是有机会发言。

So literally they have one person who's I think he's he doesn't actually work for Lido, believe he works for CyberFun, and he shows up and literally is always given an opportunity to speak.

他在这方面发表过一些研究。

He's published some work on this.

所以这不是什么新鲜事。

So this is not new.

这对任何人来说都不是新鲜事。

This is not new to anybody.

这并不让人意外。

It's not a surprise.

这件事之前已经在所有核心开发者面前讨论过了。

This has come before all Core Devs before.

这是一个非常，你知道的，老生常谈的话题。

This is something that is very, you know, well traveled.

所以我越来越感到沮丧。

And so I'm I'm increasingly frustrated.

我觉得你可以质疑，而且我也质疑过，你知道，你可以质疑，如果我们不能做出这个改变，因为质押服务提供商认为这不符合他们的经济利益，而且他们能在社交媒体上保持更活跃的存在，也许以太坊已经被他们控制了。

I think that you could question, and I have, you know, I think you could question whether or not, look, if we can't make this change because staking service providers believe it is not in their economic interests and they're able to maintain a more active social media presence, maybe Ethereum already is captured.

我对此有不同的看法，因为我在这个领域已经待了大约十一年了，早期还挖过矿，我记得当时有难度炸弹的时候。

I have a different a different view on that because I've I've been in the in the space for, like, eleven years now, my mining in the early days, and I remember the time where we had a the difficulty bomb.

所以每当我们对奖励分配有争议时，我们就会说，好吧，那就让难度炸弹启动吧。

So whenever whenever we had something contentious to pass on the rewards, we're like, yeah, but let's let's have the difficulty bomb kick in.

然后突然之间，事情就变得容易调整了，因为整个网络都在承受压力。

And and suddenly, like, yeah, it's it's it's making things much easier to to adjust, like, because the whole network is suffering.

对于质押，我们没有难度炸弹。

We don't have a difficulty bond for for staking.

不过，我们还有“合并”即将到来。

Nevertheless, we have we have lean coming up.

就在接下来的三到四年里。

It's the next three to four years.

我们提出的这个改变可能会持续很长时间，而这也是一个过渡的路径。

We are proposing a change that can last for a very long time, and that's as a transition path to it.

我和我的合著者都没有任何强行推动的意图。

Neither neither I nor my my co authors have any interest of forcing something through.

对。

Yeah.

我想强调这一点。

I wanna I wanna stress that.

就是说，我们不是要强行推进。

Like, we're not forcing things through.

绝对不是。

Absolutely not.

不过话说回来，在EIP流程里，其实也没什么能强行通过的。

But anyway, not nothing can be forced through in the in the EIP in the EIP process

关于这个流程本身。

about itself.

说实话，我不知道那怎么可能发生。

Say, I don't don't know how that would happen.

而且要说的话，过去两年我一直在幕后推动，要求我们提出一些方案。

And if anything, I've been the one behind the scenes for the last two years demanding that we get something proposed.

这

It

有点好笑的是，他们试图把它称为象牙塔倡议，但实际上象牙塔并没有真正参与其中。

was a little bit funny when they tried to call it an ivory tower initiative when the ivory tower, you know, is not really involved here.

无论如何，有时候你必须把那些让人不舒服的话说出来。

In any case, sometimes you have to say the the the the the uncomfortable thing out loud.

我们正走在一条危险的道路上，当前的体制对我们的安全不利。

We we are on a dangerous path, and the current regime is bad for our security.

这对我们的信誉不利。

It's bad for our credibility.

这对我们发出的市场信号不利，尤其是在大胆和适应能力方面。

It's bad for the market signal that we give in terms of boldness and capacity to adapt.

这对单独质押者来说尤其不利，但对以太坊本身来说也非常糟糕。

It's mostly bad for solo stakers, but it's very bad for Ethereum itself.

所以，至少我很高兴我们正在讨论这个问题，而且我确实能看到隧道尽头的曙光。

So I'm I'm at least glad that we are having this discussion, and, I can definitely see the light at the end of the tunnel coming up.

杰罗姆，山姆，我们第一次聊这个话题是在2024年，和Onsgar还有Casper一起，那时候我就觉得质押目标挺有说服力的。

Jerome, Sam, the the first time we covered this episode was with Onsgar and Casper back in in 2024, and stake targeting was compelling to me then.

我觉得关于质押目标，有很多论点大家真的需要好好思考一下。

I think there are a lot of arguments that I think people need to truly contend with with stake targeting.

其中我最喜欢的一个论点就是，这其实是以太坊所有货币政策变革的自然延续。

I one of the biggest arguments that I really like is that this is just a natural continuation of all Ethereum's monetary policy changes that it's ever had.

看起来这就是ETH货币政策一直在走的路线。

It seems to be that this is, like, the path that ETH monetary policy has been on.

而且你们提出的那些观点，说我们在这条路上还没走完，我觉得很有说服力。

And I think the arguments that you guys have that, like, we aren't done yet on that arc are compelling.

我觉得这一点值得认真对待。

I think that needs to be contended with.

我也认同DeFi生态系统必须跟以太坊的发行率竞争这个说法。

I do also take the arguments that that the DeFi ecosystem has to compete with the issuance rate of ether.

如果我们为安全支付了过高的成本，那也许可以一石二鸟，既降低发行量，又让ETH在质押之外更有生产力，这对DeFi经济也是好事。

And if we are overpaying for security, we might be able to hit two birds with one stone in reducing issuance and making ETH more productive outside of ETH staking, and that's good for the DeFi economy.

我真的很喜欢这些论点。

I really like these arguments.

我有点担心货币政策在公众眼中的形象。

I am somewhat worried about the optics of the monetary policy.

我也担心这个EIP缺乏共识，而一个EIP要顺利通过，需要大量的共识。

I am also worried about the lack of consensus around this EIP on an EIP that needs to have a lot of consensus to go through.

我觉得有些人给出的理由是，这个EIP没有共识，所以我们就别做了。

I think some of the arguments that people give is like this EIP doesn't have consensus, therefore, let's not do it.

实际上，我认为这是个糟糕的理由，因为缺乏共识并不是不去达成共识的理由。

I actually think that's a bad argument because not having consensus is not a reason to not have consensus.

感觉有点……

That it feels like it's a little.

希望这个对话能继续下去。

Hope this conversation can continue.

我觉得如果我们能在这个EIP上达成共识，那对以太坊会非常好。正如你提到的，Sam，这条路还很长。

I think if we can get consensus on this EIP that it could be very good for Ethereum, As you've alluded to, Sam, I think that's a long road.

我觉得还有很多对话需要进行。

I think there's a lot of conversations that needs to happen.

不幸的是，我觉得在以太坊里就是这样运作的。

I think, unfortunately, that's just the way that it works in Ethereum.

这些差不多就是我们要结束时的所有想法了。

These are kinda all my thoughts as as we sign off here.

我想感谢你们来参加这个节目，如果你们对听众或者更广泛的以太坊社区有什么最后的请求，或者对大家有什么下一步的建议，我就把最后的时间交给你们。

I wanna thank you guys for coming on the show, and maybe you if you guys have any last, asks of the bank list listeners of the broader Ethereum community, or just any, like, next steps for everyone in particular, I'll I'll kinda give you guys the final floor floor here.

当然可以。

Absolutely.

如果你是EIP的持有者，这会让你受益，所以请发出你的声音。

If you are EIF older, this will benefit you, so make your first voice heard.

确实，这个争议很大，目前离共识还很远，但才过了十天。

Indeed, it's a contentious and and we are far from consensus at the moment, but it's only been ten days.

所以我们现在还处于过程的开始阶段，即使这是一个...

So we are at the beginning of the process, even if it's a

简短

short

过程。

process.

我们有办法推动这件事，并就此达成广泛共识。

We have a we have a way to get this through and to form a large consensus on the matter.

但也要注意，不采取行动、拖延改变，只会让改变变得更加困难，而且是以所有EIF持有者的利益为代价。

But do also note that not acting and delaying the change is just making the change much harder and at the expense of every e folders.

所以，时机就是现在。

So it's, the time is now.

我想感谢David和Bankless社区主持这场两部分的讨论，这对以太坊非常重要。

I wanna thank David and, the bankless community for hosting this two part discussion, and, it is very important to Ethereum.

我也想感谢Jerome。

It's and I wanna thank Jerome.

他真的挺身而出，我认为，为以太坊提供了一项公共服务。

He has really stepped up to, I think, provide a public service to Ethereum.