美国最便宜的股票

我认为AgenTic的潜力在于重新思考工作的整体完成方式。

I think the potential of AgenTic is to rethink how work gets done overall.

它挑战了关于组织如何执行当前工作的各种传统正统观念。

It challenges all sorts of traditional orthodoxies around how organizations execute the work at hand.

这是德勤美国首席执行官杰森·格扎迪斯在谈论自主型人工智能的变革潜力。

That's Jason Gerzadis, CEO of Deloitte US, talking about the transformational potential of Agentic AI.

稍后加入他，了解为什么代理将成为跨行业的业务变革者。

Join him later to learn why agents are a game changer for businesses across industries.

我的舌头可能被化学灼伤了。

I might have chemical burns on my tongue.

我们就从这里开始吧。

Let's just start there.

别担心，杰克。

Don't be alarmed, Jack.

哦，天哪。

Oh, no.

这是《Baron Streetwise》播客。

This is the Baron Streetwise podcast.

我是杰克·豪。

I'm Jack Howe.

收听的还有我们的音频制作人杰克逊·坎特雷尔。

Listening in, our audio producer, Jackson Cantrell.

这是一场大火球事件。

This is a fireball situation.

正如你所知，我对这些火球有点上瘾了。

And, as as you know, I've developed a little bit of a problem with the fireballs.

为了说清楚一点，这可不是加油站卖的那种小瓶子。

And to to make this clear, this isn't the little bottles that they sell at the gas station.

这是糖果。

This is the candy.

没错。

That that's right.

这一点从一开始就非常重要。

That's an important thing to lay down right from the beginning.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

一位同事带了一大罐这种糖果，我一开始每天吃几颗，现在已经增加到大约五颗了。

A colleague brought in a big canister of the candies, and I started popping, like, a couple a day, and I'm up to, let's say, five.

我不确定吃了五颗之后我是不是就不算了。

I'm not if after five, I I'm not counting.

过一阵子你会有点麻木。

And you can get a little bit numb after a while.

所以我查了一下，像这种火球糖是不是吃太多不好。

So I was looking up whether like, I I looked up at can you have too many fireballs?

而且这种辣味来自一种叫辣椒素的东西。

And there's something the heat comes from something called cap capsaicin.

Cap，我可能发音不太对。

Cap I might not be pronouncing that right.

我觉得是辣椒素。

Capsaicin, I think.

你居然去WebMD查了你的火球糖习惯。

You you went on to WebMD about your fireball habit.

所以我去了急诊室。

So I went to the emergency room.

没有。

No.

我，是的。

I yeah.

我只是在网上查了，它来自辣椒，热量就是从这里来的。

I just on the Internet, and, it comes from, Peppers, and that's where the heat comes from.

上面还说，是的。

And it said, yeah.

你知道，有时候你

You know, sometimes you

你可能需要休息一下。

have you might have to take a break.

好的。

Okay.

不错。

Nice.

所以我请了一天假，但现在回来了。

So I took a day off, but I'm back.

这期节目不仅仅关于火球辣椒，虽然我确实要谈一个来自华尔街的与火球辣椒相关的股票推荐。

This episode is not just about fireballs, although I am going to talk about a fireball related stock recommendation that comes from Wall Street.

我们来说一个与食用色素相关的推荐吧。

Let's say a food coloring related recommendation.

不过，主要我们之后要讨论的是标普500中股价最便宜的十只股票。

Mostly, we're gonna talk after that about the 10 cheapest stocks in the S and P 500.

等等。

Wait.

我以为你刚才说股票很贵，我们上周不是刚说过股票很贵吗？

I thought you just said stocks were we we did that stocks are expensive last week.

这并不矛盾。

That's not inconsistent.

对吧？

Right?

我之前说过，市场比表面看起来更贵，我还给了你一些理由？

They can I said the market is more expensive than it looks, and I gave you some reasons?

但这些是市场上最便宜的股票。

But these are the stocks that are the cheapest in the market.

当我提到‘最便宜’时，其实是我用市盈率筛选出来的，但这并不是判断一只股票是否便宜的唯一标准。

And, really, when I say the cheapest, it's a screen I ran for price earnings ratios, and that's not the be all, end all of whether a stock is cheap.

我偶尔会去找那些在市场上被严重低估的股票，试着弄清楚它们为什么被低估，以及是否会持续低迷。

I like to look once in a while for the things that are the most broken in the stock market and try to figure out why they're broken and whether they're gonna stay broken.

我认为我们接下来要讨论的一些回报可能会让你感到惊讶。

And I think some of the returns we're gonna talk about might surprise you.

作为一点预热，名单上最便宜的股票在过去一年里涨幅超过了500%。

Just as a as a teaser, the cheapest on the list is up more than 500% over the past year.

我知道你在想什么。

I know what you're thinking.

那难道不意味着它不再属于便宜类别了吗？

Doesn't that mean it's no longer in the cheap category?

嗯，不是的。

Well, no.

这并不意味着它不再是便宜股。

It it doesn't mean that.

就像我所说的，你会感到惊讶的。

You'll you'll be surprised, like I said.

好的。

Okay.

森特瑞克技术公司。

Sensient Technologies.

森特瑞克技术公司。

Sensient Technologies.

它的股票代码是SXT。

The ticker there is SXT.

瑞银对该公司的股票进行了首次覆盖，并预测股价有30%的上涨空间。

UBS initiated coverage of that company and predicted 30% upside for stockholders.

这是一家小盘股公司。

This is a small cap company.

过去十年的回报率相当令人失望，但如今正兴起一股趋势，用天然色素替代人工合成色素。

The past decade's returns have been pretty disappointing, but there's this sweeping movement afoot now to replace artificial dyes and foods with natural ones.

在这方面能赚到不少钱。

And there is good money to be made in that.

问题是，天然色素不如人工色素鲜艳，因此需要八到十倍的量才能达到相同效果。

What happens is the natural stuff isn't as vibrant as the artificial stuff, so it takes eight to 10 times as much of it to do the job.

而Sensient公司正准备从这一新增需求中获利。

And Sentient is poised to cash in on that new volume.

是的。

Yeah.

我猜他们的选择要么是换掉色素并多用一些，要么就是我们最终会看到所有食品都变成一种灰褐色。

I guess their options are either swap out the dye and use more of it, or we we end up with a great beigeoning of all

你把那种鲜艳的色彩去掉，对吧。

of our you take out the, the vibrant the vibe right.

有趣的是，如果你见过一种叫Froot Loops的麦片，拼写是f-r-o-o-t，但不是在美国，而是在加拿大。

Well, it's funny you say that because if you've ever seen a box of, Froot Loops spelled f r o o t, Froot Loops, but not here in The US, in Canada.

他们有时会并排展示美国版和加拿大版Froot Loops的图片。

And they they show sometimes pictures side by side with a bowl of American Froot Loops and Canadian.

加拿大的版本已经去除了人工色素，看起来就像那种用红薯做的Terra薯片的颜色。

And the Canadian ones, they they've gotten rid of the artificial colors up there, and they look like they're the color of, you know those Terra chips where the chips are made the chips are made from, like, sweet potatoes?

是的。

Yeah.

它们看起来像蔬菜。

They look like vegetables.

他们干脆把名字改成‘根茎蔬菜圈’好了，因为看起来确实就是这样。

And it should they just changed the name to root vegetable loops because that's what it looks like.

这种包装在加拿大或许行得通，但我认为在美国很难卖得动这种看起来土里土气的早餐麦片。

And that might fly in Canada, but I don't think you're gonna be able to sell earthy looking breakfast cereal like that in The US.

所以对制造商来说，挑战在于要找到一种方法，既能实现这种改变，又不失去那些喜欢鲜艳色彩的消费者对食品的吸引力。

So the challenge for manufacturers is you gotta figure out a way to do this and still keep your your food popping for the people who like those bright colors.

但我们有点跑题了。

But we're getting ahead of ourselves.

那些偷走我意志的甜辣糖果——我的火球糖——含有被称为食用红色40号的成分。

The sweet heat marbles that have stolen my free will, my fireballs, they contain something called red number 40.

我相信我们都见过这个成分。

I'm sure we've all seen that.

我听说它可能造成显著伤害，也听说它根本没有任何危害。

And I have heard that that could be doing meaningful harm, and I've heard that it's doing no harm at all.

人们对这个问题意见不一。

People are divided on the matter.

黄色5号也是如此。

Same goes for yellow number five.

它们都是从石油中提取的。

They're both made from petroleum.

它们在美国都被批准用于食品、药品和化妆品。

They're both approved in The US for food and drugs and cosmetics.

在欧洲，天然色素已经占据了80%以上的市场。

In Europe, natural colorants have already taken over 80% of the market.

但在美国，天然色素仅占市场的30%，不过其份额正在上升。

But in The US, the natural stuff is only 30% of the market, but it's rising.

这个话题对许多人来说都充满激情。

This topic is a passionate one for many people.

我不会把自己称为天然食品的支持者。

I wouldn't describe myself as a natural foods guy.

我妻子喜欢在厨房里备满生杏仁酱、手工橙皮果酱和无面粉发芽谷物面包。

My wife likes to stock our kitchen with raw almond butter and artisan orange peel marmalade and flourless sprouted grain bread.

我最近想做个花生酱果酱三明治，结果看到了那些东西。

And I recently felt like making a PB and J, and I saw all of that stuff.

然后我就跑去商店买了Jif、Smucker's和Wonder牌的。

And then I ran out to the store for Jif and Smucker's and Wonder.

你干脆直接跳过中间环节，买个Uncrustable不就行了。

You you should have just cut out the middleman and got an in Uncrustable.

没错。

That's right.

你有没有见过有人吃Uncrustable时把边上的面包皮扔掉？

You ever see someone eat an Uncrustable while leaving the crust of the Uncrustable behind?

因为这种事确实存在。

Because that's a thing.

这种事正在外面发生。

That's happening out there.

总之，我想说的是，我是个坏人。

Anyhow, my point here is that I'm a bad person.

在我们的卫生与公共服务部长罗伯特·F·肯尼迪 Jr. 的推动下，逐步淘汰红色40号和黄色5号已成为‘让美国再次健康’运动的核心内容。

In our health and human services secretary, Robert f Kennedy junior, he's made phasing out red 40 and yellow five a central part of the make America healthy again movement.

我觉得这件事正在形成势头。

I think there's momentum for that.

要明确这些事情总是很难的，因为当前政府曾表态支持另一种有争议的食品化学物质——这种物质存在于农达除草剂中。

It's always hard to pin these things down because the current administration came out with something in support of another controversial food chain chemical, one that's found in Roundup weed killer.

我对这两件事都没有明确立场。

I don't have a position on either of these things.

有时候我会试图预测政治风向会如何转变，但我并不擅长这个。

Sometimes I try to predict which way the political winds will blow, but I'm not very good at it.

但多年来，我一直听到家长说，含有合成色素的食物会让他们的孩子变得多动。

But for years I've heard parents say that foods with artificial dyes make their kids hyperactive.

我相信这些家长。

And I believe these parents.

在欧洲，含有这些染料的产品必须标注相应的警告标签。

And in Europe, products with these dyes have to carry warning labels to that effect.

我见过一些说法，称这些染料可能带来更令人担忧的健康影响。

I've seen claims of even more worrisome health effects than that.

我完全不知道。

I have no idea.

还有一种完全不同的色素，与红色40号无关。

There is a totally different colorant, unrelated to Red 40.

它叫做红色3号。

It's called Red Number three.

它由碘制成，而非石油。

It's made from iodine, not petroleum.

由于研究发现极高剂量的红色3号与大鼠甲状腺肿瘤有关，因此自1990年起，它在某些用途上被禁止使用。

And that was banned for some uses starting in 1990 due to studies that linked very high doses to thyroid tumors in rats.

对我们而言最重要的是消费者想要什么，足够多的消费者在要求更纯净的成分，食品公司也因此做出了回应。

What matters most for our purposes here is what shoppers want, and enough of them are demanding cleaner ingredients that food companies are responding.

百事、雀巢、J.M.斯穆克、好时、卡夫亨氏、通用磨坊、家乐氏等公司均已宣布计划，将在今年底至明年年底前逐步淘汰人工色素。

Pepsi, Nestle, JM Smucker, Hershey, Kraft Heinz, General Mills, Kellogg, These companies and more have announced plans to phase out artificial colorants mostly by the end of this year and next year.

沃尔玛和塔吉特等零售商也在加强管控。

Stores like Walmart and Target are cracking down too.

加利福尼亚州和西弗吉尼亚州已禁止在学校餐食中使用人工色素。

And California and West Virginia are banning artificial colors in school meals.

如果你是食品公司，不可能对这类问题说换就换。

You can't just flip a switch on this stuff if you're a food company.

正如我们所说，你不想让早餐麦片看起来太土气、暗淡无光。

As we were saying, you don't want your breakfast cereal to come out looking too earthy and dull.

你也不希望它尝起来像蔬菜，而它本该是水果味的。

You also don't want it tasting like veggies if it's supposed to taste like fruit.

你必须找到不会影响销量或褪色的色素。

You have to find colorants that won't hurt your sales or fade.

虽然我喜欢甜菜，所以我不确定我是否介意。

Although I'm a fan of beets, so I'm I'm not sure I'd mind.

所以，有没有人想尝试用甜菜做色素循环？

So anyone out there who wants to do beet loops?

不过，我们稍后再谈甜菜。

Well, we'll come to beets in a moment.

甜菜在这里扮演着关键角色。

Beets play a pivotal role here.

如果你要做出这样的重大改变，或者这些大型食品公司要这么做，你就需要有能快速响应你需求的色素供应商。

If you're gonna make a big change like this or these massive food companies, you have to have colorant dealers whose supply chains can respond quickly to what you want.

这就引出了Sentient公司。

And that brings us to Sentient.

这是一家从专有作物育种开始垂直整合的公司，因此具有优势。

It's a vertically integrated company down to proprietary crop breeding that gives it an advantage.

该公司一百四十年前最初是一家威士忌和杜松子酒经销商。

The company started as a whiskey and gin dealer more than a hundred forty years ago.

在禁酒令期间，它严重依赖销售酵母。

During prohibition, it leaned heavily on selling its yeast.

而今天，它主要销售用于食品、化妆品和药品的香精和色素。

And today, it sells mostly flavors and colors for food, cosmetics, and drugs.

早在2000年，它就将公司名称从通用食品公司更改为现名。

Back in 2000, it changed its name from Universal Foods.

它并不是一家快速增长的公司，至少到目前为止不是。

It is not a fast growing company, at least not up until now.

近年来，它的年销售额平均增长约3%。

In recent years, it's been growing sales by about 3% a year on average.

但瑞银认为，在未来五年内，其年销售额将实现10%的增长，主要得益于向天然色素的转型。

But UBS reckons it'll achieve 10% yearly sales growth over the next five years, mostly from the shift to natural colorants.

今年的销售额预计为17亿美元，较去年增长了8%。

This year sales are pegged at $1,700,000,000 up 8% from last year.

Sentient在人工色素销售方面的业务规模约为1亿美元，但它认为可以将这部分业务转化为十倍规模的天然色素销售。

Sensing has about a $100,000,000 in exposure to artificial colorant sales, but it figures it can convert that to 10 times as much in natural colorant sales.

近期，其股价交易价格约为今年盈利预测的25倍。

Shares recently traded at 25 times this year's earnings forecast.

你提到了甜菜，杰克逊。

You mentioned beets, Jackson.

事实证明，Sensient公司有一种名为Super Red的产品，可以产生非常鲜艳的红色调。

It turns out Sensient has a product called super red that can produce these really vivid shades of red.

这可能适合我的火球糖，而且它是用公司专有的UberBeat技术制成的。

That might be something for my fireballs, and that's made using the company's proprietary UberBeat technology.

那个词，UberBeat，已经被用了。

That that word has taken, UberBeat.

别试着用这个词。

Don't try to use that.

我每个想法都已经被别人用过了。

It's a I I every idea I have has already been taken.

这真是太遗憾了。

That's that's too bad.

我还读到公司网站上提到另一种天然红色素，叫胭脂虫红。

There is another natural red, that I read about in the company site called carmine.

你听说过胭脂虫红吗？

Have you ever heard of that carmine?

我没听说过。

I have not.

那我们就在这个部分以一个有趣的事实收尾吧。

Well, we're gonna end this bit on a fun fact then.

胭脂虫红已经存在很久了。

Carmine has been around for ages.

事实上，英国人在美国独立战争期间用它来染制红色军服，如今它仍被广泛使用，包括在食品中。

In fact, the British, the red coats, used it for their uniforms during the American revolution, and it's still used widely today, including in foods.

我对胭脂虫红唯一的顾虑是，杰克逊，你了解我。

My only hesitation about carmine, and Jackson, you know me.

我尽量不那么挑剔。

I I try not to be fussy.

结果发现它是从一种叫做胭脂虫的昆虫中提取的，而且我希望我发音没错。

It turns out that it's made from something called, and again, I hope I'm pronouncing this right, cockneyle insects.

哇。

Wow.

昆虫学家们给这种生物的正式名称是Dactylopius coccus。

The official name for the entomologists out there is Dactylopius coccus.

这些生物是微小的、有鳞片的吸汁昆虫，喜欢生活在仙人掌上。

These are apparently tiny, scaly sap suckers that like to live on prickly pear cacti.

这些仙人掌在墨西哥、秘鲁和智利被专门种植以培育这些昆虫。

And the cacti are grown for that purpose in Mexico and Peru and Chile.

人们会手工采集这些胭脂虫，然后将它们晾干并碾碎成粉末，以提取其中的胭脂虫酸用于染色。

And the cochineals are collected by hand, and then they're dried and crushed into powder so that their carminic acid can be extracted for dye.

Sensient公司表示，胭脂红可能会成为新的红色3号或红色40。

And Sensient says that carmine could be the new red three or red 40.

天哪。

Oh my gosh.

我给你引用一句话。

I'll give you a quote.

你是说你口水都流出来了吗？

Are you're you're saying your mouth is watering?

我，不，不是。

I I no.

不是。

No.

我只是在想，从蔬菜变成虫子的Froot Loops。

I'm I'm just seeing from vegetable to bug Froot Loops.

这真酷。

Now that's cool.

这可能会让孩子们感兴趣。

That might that might get kids interested.

正如公司高级技术总监在一篇文章中解释的那样，‘曾经，胭脂虫这种昆虫来源曾受到一些质疑，但最近，昆虫作为一种新兴食品趋势正在兴起。’

Well, as the company's senior technical director explains in an article, quote, at one point, the insect source of cockaniel was under some scrutiny, but lately, insects are an emerging food trend.

我们家可不会。

Not in this household.

我想我该走了。

I guess I'll I guess I'll leave you.

我想我的火焰球还有各种可能性。

I guess there's all kinds of possibilities for my fireballs.

我现在在囤红色40号的，但咱们走着瞧吧，未来会发生什么。

I'm stocking up with the red 40 ones, but let's see what happens down the road.

顺便说一下，原子火焰球已经被制造商停产了。

By the way, the, atomic fireballs have been discontinued by the manufacturer.

你知道吗？

Did you know that?

这可不是什么有趣的消息。

That's a not fun fact.

明白吗？

Okay?

抱歉用这么扫兴的话收尾。

Sorry to end on a down note.

趁还能买到的时候多囤一些，朋友们。

Stock up while you can, folks.

是因为红色染料吗？

Was it the red dye?

我觉得不是红色染料的问题。

I don't think it's the red dye.

我觉得可能只是不太受欢迎。

I think it might be just lack of popularity.

我没看到其他人背着一大包火球糖到处走。

I don't I don't see anyone else out there carrying around a big bag of fireballs.

就我一个人。

It's just me.

但我正在

But I'm

我要发一张照片给你，杰克，因为这跟我们正在聊的话题有点关系。

gonna send you a picture, Jack, just because it's it's it has something to do with what we're talking about.

这是为我四年级的生日准备的。

It's for my fourth grade birthday.

天哪。

Oh, man.

看看这是什么？

Look at what is this?

这是什么？

What is this?

这张照片里你多大了？

How old are you in this picture?

这不是很疯狂吗？

Isn't that crazy?

我那时候刚满十岁。

I'm I I must have just turned 10.

我想那时是四年级，我们刚学完美国独立战争单元。

I guess it's in fourth grade, and we'd done the revolutionary war unit.

天哪。

Oh my lord.

看看你的制服。

Look at your uniform.

你全副武装，穿着红色军装。

You're in full you're a red coat.

我的意思是，你样样俱全。

I mean, you got everything.

这看起来太专业了。

This is such a professional looking

戴上假发，戴上三角帽，还有那双可能大了五号的靴子。

Get get the wig, the tricorn hat, and and boots that are probably five sizes too big

在水中游泳。

in the swim.

你打扮成一名红衣士兵？

And you dressed as one of the red coats?

我不知道为什么，但确实如此。

I don't know why, but, yeah, apparently.

我知道为什么。

I I know why.

我知道为什么。

I know why.

我得想想。

I gotta think.

也许我不该把这件事说出来。

I maybe I maybe I shouldn't put this out there.

我的意思是，他们的制服更好看。

I mean, they had better uniforms.

对吧？

Right?

只是更花哨而已。

They're just flashier.

我的意思是，他们穿着那些醒目的红色制服出现在外面。

I mean, they were they were out there with those bold red uniforms.

我的意思是，这确实是一种风格。

I mean, that's a look.

我不知道。

I don't know

如果你在树林里，这真的是你想要的吗？

if it's what you want in the woods.

我不觉得这一定是。

I don't think that's necessarily

是的。

Yeah.

只从时尚角度来说，支持他们吧。

Take their side on on fashion only.

你去哪儿弄这样的制服？

Where do you get a uniform like this?

你是在哪儿买的？

Where'd you get it?

是的。

Yeah.

这是在伯班克附近一家服装店买的。

This was a costume shop near Burbank.

对。

Right.

你走进去，对柜台后面的人说：嘿，先生。

And you went in, and you said to the fellow at the counter, hey, mister.

我想扮成一名独立战争时期的士兵。

I'd like to be a Revolutionary War soldier.

他说：我明白了，年轻人，你想看起来像个美国爱国者。

And he said, I see, young man, that you'd like to look like an American patriot.

你说：也不完全是。

And you said, not exactly.

再猜一次。

Guess guess again.

好吧。

Alright.

这让我们来到了标普500中股价最低的十只股票。

That brings us to the 10 cheapest stocks in the S and P 500.

我们现在先看其中几只，然后休息一下，再回来讲剩下的。

Let's do a couple of them now, then we'll take a break, then we'll come back with the rest.

我马上告诉你两件事。

I'll tell you two things right off the top.

第一，这绝对不是，我再强调一遍，不是一种靠谱的投资策略。

Number one, this is not, I repeat, not a sound investment strategy.

这并不是我在说，嘿。

This is not me saying, hey.

去买标普500中这十只股价最低的股票吧。

Buy these 10 cheapest stocks in the S and P 500.

它们一定很划算。

They must be a great deal.

你不能就这么做。

You can't just do that.

这是一种过于简化的做法。

It's an overly simplistic approach.

但我接下来要告诉你的第二点是，最近这种策略表现得相当不错。

But the second thing I'll tell you is it's worked pretty darn well recently.

如果你一年前选出市盈率最低的10只股票，并等额投入每只，那么加上股息，你的回报率将达到70%。

If you pulled up the 10 lowest PE stocks a year ago and put equal dollar amounts in each, you'd have made 70% with dividends.

你的收益会比标普500指数高出49个百分点。

You'd have beaten the S and P 500 by 49 points.

如果你两年前这么做，你的表现会高出9个百分点。

If you had done it two years ago, you'd have outperformed by nine points.

五年前这么做，你的表现会高出73个百分点。

Five years ago, you were ahead by 73 points.

如果你十年前这么做，你的收益会超过市场300多个点。

And if you did this ten years ago, you beat the market by more than 300 points.

这太疯狂了。

That's nuts.

我觉得这可能只是个偶然。

I think it also has to be a fluke.

我认为市盈率是一个相当简化的价值指标，市场上最便宜的股票并不总是，或者通常也不是最好的股票。

I think the PE is a pretty simplistic signal of value, and the cheapest stocks in the market aren't always or aren't usually the best stocks.

稍后我会解释为什么最便宜的股票表现得这么好。

I'll come in a little while to why the cheapest stocks have done so well.

但让我先从列表上最便宜的那只股票说起。

But let me start with the cheapest one on the list.

当然，当我提到便宜时，我只是指市盈率最低。

And really, of course, when I say cheap, I just mean lowest PE.

我无法告诉你这只股票从现在开始是否会继续上涨。

I can't tell you whether this stock is going higher from here.

这只股票是美光科技，他们生产内存，一年内上涨了520%。

The stock is Micron Technology, and they make memory, and it's up 520% in a year.

它的市盈率只有4.4倍。

And it trades at 4.4 times earnings.

这与标普500指数刚刚超过20倍的市盈率形成对比。

That compares with just over 20 times earnings for the S and P 500.

一只股票在一年内上涨了520%，为什么市盈率还能只有4.4倍？

How can a stock that's up 520% in a year still trade at 4.4 times earnings?

去年它的市盈率一定是低至0.9倍。

It must have traded at point nine times earnings last year.

你可能会这么想。

Well, you would think so.

实际上，市盈率低可能是由于股价低、盈利高，或者两者同时发生。

What's actually happened is you can get a low PE ratio by having either a low p or a high e or both at the same time.

但你也可以遇到股价上涨，而盈利增长得更快的情况。

But you can also have a rising p with an e that's just rising a whole lot faster.

这种情况正是如此。

And that's what's happening in this case.

杰克逊，这你明白吗？

Did that make sense, Jackson?

我本不想提到分数。

I didn't mean to bring fractions.

分数会让人生气。

The fractions make people angry.

分母的增长速度比分子快。

Denominator is growing faster than the numerator.

那你可就让他们更生气了。

Then you're making them angrier.

不是。

No.

不是。

No.

没人喜欢‘分母’这个词。

No one likes the word denominator.

让我给你演示一下我的意思。

Let me show you what I mean.

内存当然在AI数据中心中需求旺盛，这导致了短缺和价格飙升。

Memory, of course, is in fierce demand for AI data centers, and that's led to shortages and soaring prices.

美光公司从未有过每股超过12美元的收益。

And so Micron is a company that never earned more than $12 a share.

盈利最高的年份是2018年，当时每股只有11美元出头。

The highest year for earnings was back in, I believe, 2018, and it was $11 and change.

但本财年（截至8月）的盈利预计将达到56美元出头。

But earnings for this fiscal year, which runs through August, they're pegged at $56 and change.

而明年则预计达到93美元出头。

And for next year, dollars 93 and change.

这与去年刚超过8美元的水平形成了鲜明对比。

And that compares with just over $8 last year.

因此，由于需求增加和价格高涨，这家公司的盈利正在迅速增长。

So earnings are just multiplying rapidly for this company because of the increased demand and the high prices.

如果我们愿意为音乐版税支付任何超过零的费用，我们就会开始播放老鹰乐队的《Lion Eyes》。

And if we were willing to pay anything more than $0 for music royalties, we'd start playing Lion Eyes from the Eagles.

因为我认为投资者对这只股票采取的正是这种做法。

Because that's basically the approach I think investors are taking to this stock.

他们看到了盈利。

They see the earnings.

他们看到这只股票似乎很便宜，但他们说，我的眼睛欺骗了我。

They see that the stock looks cheap, but they say, my eyes deceive me.

或者至少，我过去见过太多半导体繁荣最终化为泡影的情况。

Or at least, I have seen enough semiconductor booms in the past that fizzled.

这次我不会再上当了。

I'm not gonna be fooled by this one.

我不会在股价已经上涨了500%的情况下贸然入场。

I'm not gonna jump in with this stock up 500%.

所以这只股票的市盈率保持在四倍。

So the stock stays at four times earnings.

但随着时间推移，投资者逐渐转变态度，股价继续上涨。

But then gradually, investors come around and the stock keeps climbing.

我不知道这种趋势是否会持续。

I don't know whether that will continue.

我觉得整个这件事根本没法写成一首好歌。

And I don't think that whole thing would make a very good song.

这押韵可真够难的。

It's gonna be a tough rhyming job.

你无法在我们每秒2.8太字节的海量数据吞吐量面前隐藏你的狮子之眼。

You can't hide your lion eyes from our 2.8 terabyte per second massive data throughput.

你看，吞吐量这个概念在半导体领域很难做到。

Now, see, throughput is a tough

在半导体领域，这确实是个难题。

one to That in semiconductors.

所以这就是美光股票。

So that's Micron stock.

它基本上在上涨，即使不是一堵担忧之墙，也是一堵怀疑之墙、不信任之墙，一堵‘我可不想在AI主题彻底崩盘前，成为最后一个以这些价格买入美光股票的人’的墙。

It's basically climbing, if not a wall of worry, a wall of disbelief, a wall of distrust, a wall of I ain't gonna be the last person paying these prices for Micron stock just before the whole AI theme collapses.

但当然，也有很多理智的人合理地认为，这场AI支出热潮还有很长的路要走。

But, of course, there are many sensible people arguing quite reasonably that this AI spending spree has much longer to run.

所以我们走着瞧吧。

So we'll see.

顺便说一句，所有这些AI支出对一家名为西部数据的硬盘制造商的股价也产生了类似的影响。

By the way, all this AI spending has done something similar to shares of a hard drive maker called Western Digital.

在那些AI数据中心里，你需要大量的硬盘存储空间。

You need a lot of hard drive storage in those AI data centers.

这只股票现在不在市盈率最低的名单上，但十年前它还在上面。

This stock is not on the lowest PE list, but it was on it a decade ago.

从那以后，它的回报率已经超过了一千倍。

And since then, it has returned more than a thousand percent.

这就是为什么我认为过去十年低市盈率股票表现如此出色的原因之一。

That's one reason why I think the low PE years have done so well over the past decade.

另一个原因是，一家名为联合租赁的公司曾经在名单上，但现在已不在了。

Another reason is a company called United Rentals that was on the list is no longer on the list.

它抓住了企业倾向于租赁而非购买建筑设备的趋势带来的机会。

It has cashed in on a trend toward companies borrowing rather than buying construction equipment.

让我再告诉你一只仍在名单上的股票，以及几只已经毕业离开名单的股票。

Let me tell you one more stock that is on the list and a couple that have graduated off of the list.

我们最近已经讨论过所有这些股票了。

We've talked about all these names recently.

通用汽车的市盈率只有6.2倍，它对最低市盈率名单并不陌生。

General Motors, that's 6.2 times earnings, and it is no stranger to the lowest PE list.

但我们应该指出，这只股票在过去一年上涨了68%，过去三年上涨了127%。

But we should point out that stock has also returned 68% over the past year and a 127% over the past three years.

它轻松跑赢了大盘。

It has easily beaten the market.

通用汽车通过专注于高价皮卡和运动型多用途车，产生了大量现金。

GM is generating a lot of cash by focusing on pricey trucks and sport utility vehicles.

这些车型的需求相当强劲。

Demand for those is pretty solid.

我知道车辆已经变得如此昂贵，以至于难以负担，但我们在经济的许多领域都看到了这种分化。

I know vehicles have gotten so expensive they're difficult to afford, but there's been this split that we've seen in a lot of parts of the economy.

高收入人群仍在购买，汽车公司也在迎合他们。

Higher income folks are still buying, and car companies are catering to them.

这使得他们的成本保持在低位，利润率得以提升。

And that's keeping their costs down and their margins up.

因此，通用汽车或许某天能够摆脱这张名单。

So maybe GM will even be able to gain its way off of this list at some point.

达美航空和联合航空就是这种情况。

That's what's happened to Delta Airlines and United Airlines.

我们最近讨论过它们。

We talked about them recently.

十年前，它们很容易就能入选标普500中市盈率最低的十只股票。

They would have easily made a list of the 10 lowest PE stocks in the S and P 500 a decade ago.

即使最近航空燃油价格飙升，这两家公司仍在产生巨额现金流。

Even with this recent price spike for jet fuel, those two companies are generating tons of cash.

事实上，如果这段时期对较弱的航空公司构成困难，长远来看反而可能对这两家公司有利。

In fact, if this proves a difficult period for weaker airlines, it might actually benefit those two in the long run.

不管怎样，已经解决了两家，还剩八家，但我们很快就能搞定这八家。

Anyhow, that's two companies down, eight to go, but we're gonna tear through those eight.

杰克逊，我们要不要先休息一下？

What if we take a quick break here, Jackson?

你去试试那件红色制服还穿得上不，我们马上回来。

You go see if that, red coat uniform still fits, and we'll be right back.

我不知道我父母是不是还留着那件衣服。

I wonder if my parents still have that.

家不就是我们所有人都想回去的地方吗？

Isn't home where we all wanna be?