萨姆·奥尔特曼：三点观察

我们的使命是确保人工通用智能（AGI）惠及全人类。已经开始出现指向AGI时代的迹象，因此我们认为理解我们所处的这一时刻至关重要。AGI是一个定义较为宽泛的术语，但通常我们指的是能够在多个领域以人类水平应对日益复杂问题的系统。人类天生是工具的创造者，具有理解与创造的内在驱动力，这推动着世界变得对我们所有人更好。

Our mission is to ensure that AGI, artificial general intelligence, benefits all of humanity. Systems that start to point to AGI times are coming into view, and so we think it's important to understand the moment we are in. AGI is a weakly defined term. But generally speaking, we mean it to be a system that can tackle increasingly complex problems at human level in many fields. People are tool builders with an inherent drive to understand and create, which leads to the world getting better for all of us.

每一代人都在前人发现的基础上，创造出更强大的工具——电力、晶体管、计算机、互联网，不久之后就是AGI。随着时间推移，尽管时快时慢，人类创新的稳步前进已为人们生活的几乎每个方面带来了过去难以想象的繁荣与改善。从某种意义上说，AGI只是我们共同构建的、日益高耸的人类进步阶梯中的又一工具。但从另一种意义上说，它标志着某种全新的开端，让人不禁觉得：这一次，真的不同了。我们面前的经济增长前景令人震惊。

Each new generation builds upon the discoveries of the generations before to create even more capable tools, electricity, the transistor, the computer, the Internet, and soon AGI. Over time, in fits and starts, the steady march of human innovation has brought previously unimaginable levels of prosperity and improvements to almost every aspect of people's lives. In some sense, AGI is just another tool in this ever taller scaffolding of human progress we are building together. In another sense, it is the beginning of something for which it's hard not to say, this time, it's different. The economic growth in front of us looks astonishing.

我们可以想象一个世界：所有疾病都被治愈，我们有更多时间与家人共处，并能充分实现自身的创造力。十年之内，地球上每个人或许都能完成比今天最具影响力的人还要多的成就。我们继续见证人工智能的快速发展。以下是关于人工智能经济的三点观察：第一，AI模型的智能水平大致与用于训练和运行它的资源量的对数成正比。

And we can now imagine a world where we cure all diseases, have much more time to enjoy with our families, and can fully realize our creative potential. In a decade, perhaps everyone on Earth will be capable of accomplishing more than the most impactful person can today. We continue to see rapid progress with AI development. Here are three observations about the economics of AI. One, the intelligence of an AI model roughly equals the log of the resources used to train and run it.

这些资源主要包括训练算力、数据和推理算力。似乎你可以投入任意多的资金，就能获得持续且可预测的收益。预测这一趋势的扩展定律在多个数量级上都表现准确。第二，使用某一水平AI的成本大约每十二个月下降十倍，而更低的价格会带来更广泛的应用。你可以看到，从2023年初的GPT-4到2024年中旬的GPT-4，每令牌成本在这一时期内下降了约150倍。

These resources are chiefly training compute, data, and inference compute. It appears that you can spend arbitrary amounts of money and get continuous and predictable gains. The scaling laws that predict this are accurate over many orders of magnitude. Two, the cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10 x every twelve months, and lower prices lead to much more use. You can see this in the token cost from g p t four inches early two thousand and twenty three to g p t $4.00 in mid two zero two four, where the price per token dropped about 150 x in that time period.

摩尔定律以每十八个月两倍的速度改变了世界，而这一速度远超其表现。第三，线性增长的智能所带来的社会经济价值具有超指数性质。其结果是，我们没有理由认为未来短期内指数级的投资增长会停止。如果这三点观察持续成立，那么对社会的影响将是巨大的。

Moore's law changed the world at two x every eighteen months. This is unbelievably stronger. Three, the socioeconomic value of linearly increasing intelligence is super exponential in nature. A consequence of this is that we see no reason for exponentially increasing investment to stop in the near future. If these three observations continue to hold true, the impacts on society will be significant.

我们现在正开始推出AI代理，它们最终会像虚拟同事一样。让我们设想一个软件工程代理的案例，这是我们预期特别重要的代理类型。想象这个代理最终能够完成大多数任务——一个在顶级公司拥有几年经验的软件工程师所能处理的、持续数天的任务。但它不会提出最重大的新想法。

We are now starting to roll out AI agents, which will eventually feel like virtual coworkers. Let's imagine the case of a software engineering agent, which is an agent that we expect to be particularly important. Imagine that this agent will eventually be capable of doing most things. A software engineer at a top company with a few years of experience could do for tasks up to a couple of days long. It will not have the biggest new ideas.

它需要大量的人类监督与指导，擅长某些事情，却在其他方面表现得令人意外地糟糕。但请把它想象成一个真实存在的、相对初级的虚拟同事。现在想象有1000个这样的代理，或100万个。再想象这些代理遍布每一个知识工作领域。

It will require lots of human supervision and direction. And it will be great at some things, but surprisingly bad others. Still, imagine it as a real but relatively junior virtual coworker. Now imagine 1,000 of them or 1,000,000 of them. Now imagine such agents in every field of knowledge work.

在某些方面，人工智能在经济上可能会像晶体管一样，是一项规模效应显著的重大科学发现，渗透到经济的几乎每一个角落。我们很少去思考晶体管或晶体管公司，但其收益却广泛分布。然而，我们确实期望我们的电脑、电视、汽车、玩具等能带来奇迹。世界不会一夜之间改变，从来都不会。

In some ways, AI may turn out to be like the transistor economically, a big scientific discovery that scales well and that seeps into almost every corner of the economy. We don't think much about transistors or transistor companies, and the gains are very widely distributed. But we do expect our computers, TVs, cars, toys, and more to perform miracles. The world will not change all at once. It never does.

短期内，生活仍会基本如常，2025年的人们仍将像2024年那样度过大部分时光。我们依然会坠入爱河、组建家庭、在线争吵、徒步自然等。但未来将以一种无法忽视的方式向我们袭来，社会和经济的长期变化将极为巨大。我们将找到新的事情去做，新的方式彼此帮助，新的方式展开竞争。但这些新事物可能与今天的职位大不相同。

Life will go on mostly the same in the short run, and people in 2025 will mostly spend their time in the same way they did in 2024. We will still fall in love, create families, get in fights online, hike in nature, etcetera. But the future will be coming at us in a way that is impossible to ignore, and the long term changes to our society and economy will be huge. We will find new things to do, new ways to be useful to each other, and new ways to compete. But they may not look very much like the jobs of today.

自主性、意志力和决心可能会变得极为宝贵。正确决定该做什么，并学会在不断变化的世界中导航，将具有巨大价值。韧性与适应力将是值得培养的重要技能。通用人工智能将成为人类意志力最强的杠杆，使个人能够产生前所未有的影响力，而非更小。我们预计通用人工智能的影响将是不均衡的。

Agency, willfulness, and determination will likely be extremely valuable. Correctly deciding what to do and figuring out how to navigate an ever changing world will have huge value. Resilience and adaptability will be helpful skills to cultivate. AGI will be the biggest lever ever on human willfulness and enable individual people to have more impact than ever before, not less. We expect the impact of AGI to be uneven.

尽管某些行业变化甚微，但科学进步很可能会比今天快得多。通用人工智能的这一影响可能超越其他一切。许多商品的价格最终将大幅下降。目前，智能和能源的成本制约了太多事物。而奢侈品以及土地等少数稀缺资源的价格可能会上涨得更加剧烈。

Although some industries will change very little, scientific progress will likely be much faster than it is today. This impact of AGI may surpass everything else. The price of many goods will eventually fall dramatically. Right now, the cost of intelligence and the cost of energy constrain a lot of things. And the price of luxury goods and a few inherently limited resources like land may rise even more dramatically.

从技术角度看，我们面前的道路相当清晰。但公共政策和社会对如何将通用人工智能融入社会的集体意见至关重要。我们早期和频繁推出产品的原因之一，是让社会与技术有时间共同演进。人工智能将渗透到经济和社会的各个领域，我们会期望一切事物都变得智能。

Technically speaking, the road in front of us looks fairly clear. But public policy and collective opinion on how we should integrate AGI into society matter a lot. One of our reasons for launching products early and often is to give society and the technology time to co evolve. AI will seep into all areas of the economy and society. We will expect everything to be smart.

我们许多人认为，相比以往，需要给予人们更多对技术的控制权，包括开源更多内容，并接受安全与个人赋权之间需要权衡。虽然我们绝不想鲁莽行事，且在通用人工智能安全方面可能做出一些不受欢迎的重大决策与限制，但方向上，随着我们越来越接近实现通用人工智能，我们认为向个人赋权倾斜至关重要。我们能看到的另一条可能路径是：专制政府利用人工智能通过大规模监控和剥夺自主权来控制民众。确保通用人工智能的收益广泛分布至关重要。技术进步的历史影响表明，我们关心的大多数指标——如健康结果、经济繁荣等——平均而言在长期内都会改善。

Many of us expect to need to give people more control over the technology than we have historically, including open sourcing more, and accept that there is a balance between safety and individual empowerment that will require trade offs. While we never want to be reckless and there will likely be some major decisions and limitations related to AGI safety that will be unpopular, directionally, as we get closer to achieving AGI, We believe that trending more towards individual empowerment is important. The other likely path we can see is AI being used by authoritarian governments to control their population through mass surveillance and loss of autonomy. Ensuring that the benefits of AGI are broadly distributed is critical. The historical impact of technological progress suggests that most of the metrics we care about, health outcomes, economic prosperity, etcetera, get better on average and over the long term.

但增加平等似乎并非由技术决定，实现这一点可能需要新思路。特别是，资本与劳动之间的权力平衡很容易被打破，这可能需要早期干预。我们对一些听起来奇怪的想法持开放态度，例如为地球上每个人分配一定的计算资源，使其能广泛使用人工智能。但我们也看到，只要持续将智能成本压到最低，就能达到理想效果。到2035年，任何人都应能调动相当于2025年2月全体人类的智力能力。

But increasing equality does not seem technologically determined, and getting this right may require new ideas. In particular, it does seem like the balance of power between capital and labor could easily get messed up, and this may require early intervention. We are open to strange sounding ideas, like giving some compute budget to enable everyone on Earth to use a lot of AI. But we can also see a lot of ways where just relentlessly driving the cost of intelligence as low as possible has the desired effect. Anyone in 2035 should be able to marshal the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 02/2025.

每个人都应该能够获得无限的智慧，并按照自己的想象去运用。如今，有大量人才缺乏充分表达自己的资源。如果我们改变这一状况，世界由此产生的创造力将为我们所有人带来巨大的益处。

Everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct however they can imagine. There is a great deal of talent right now without the resources to fully express itself. And if we change that, the resulting creative output of the world will lead to tremendous benefits for us all.