伊朗最高领袖在美以袭击中身亡

这个BBC播客由英国境外的广告支持。

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside The UK.

在过去三十年里，我一直在努力更好地理解金融，涵盖董事会、新闻室和交易大厅。

I've spent the last three decades trying to better understand money across the boardroom, the newsroom, and the trading floor.

这比大多数播客主持人活的时间还要长。

That's longer than most podcast hosts have been alive.

但即使是我，也还有很多问题。

But even I've got questions.

每周请和我一起收听《Maren's Upset Web》，在Bloomberg播客的《Maren谈钱》节目中，我会与基金经理、策略师和专家深入探讨市场的真实运作方式。

Join me, Maren's Upset Web, every week for my show, Maren Talks Money from Bloomberg Podcasts, where I have in-depth conversations with fund managers, strategists, and experts about how markets really work.

同时，也请收听另一期节目，我会回答听众关于如何让市场为你服务的问题。

And join me for a separate episode where I answer listener questions on how to make those markets work for you.

请在Apple播客、Spotify或您收听的任何平台关注《Meritorms Money》。

Follow Meritorms Money on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.

您正在收听来自BBC世界服务的全球新闻播客。

You're listening to the global news podcast from the BBC World Service.

你好。

Hello.

我是奥利弗·康韦。

I'm Oliver Conway.

本期节目发布于3月1日星期日凌晨。

This edition is published in the early hours of Sunday, March 1.

伊朗已确认其最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊去世。

Iran has confirmed the death of its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

这位86岁的神职人员在美以联合空袭中丧生。

The 86 year old cleric was killed during a barrage of US Israeli strikes.

特朗普总统称他为历史上最邪恶的人之一，而一些伊朗人则为此庆祝。

President Trump called him one of the most evil people in history as some people celebrated in Iran.

但现在谁在掌权？

But who is in charge now?

此外，在本期播客中，我们将听到伊朗报复行动袭击了中东多地目标，并威胁要关闭一条关键的石油运输通道。

Also in the podcast, we hear about Iranian retaliation hitting targets across the Middle East and threatening to close a key oil transit route.

我们还将获得联合国安理会的最新消息。

And we get an update from the UN Security Council.

近四十年来，阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊一直掌握着伊朗的绝对权力，但如今已不复如此。

For nearly four decades, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has wielded absolute power in Iran, but no longer.

随着德黑兰黎明的到来，伊朗国家媒体确认他已于周六凌晨在办公室去世。

As dawn broke in Tehran, Iranian state media confirmed he was dead, killed at his office in the early hours of Saturday.

这一事件发生在美以两国对伊朗发动大规模空袭之后，此次行动代号为‘史诗之怒’。

It followed a day of heavy airstrikes across Iran by The US and Israel, codenamed epic fury.

特朗普总统早些时候率先公布了这位86岁教长的死讯，称他是历史上最邪恶的人之一，但伊朗方面予以否认。

President Trump earlier broke the news of the death of the 86 year old cleric, calling him one of the most evil people in history, but Iran denied it.

然而，随着他去世的传闻蔓延，伊朗多个城市出现了庆祝活动。

Nevertheless, as rumors spread of his demise, there were celebrations in a number of Iranian cities.

年轻人，包括一些未戴头巾的女性，在卡拉季市附近的一个居民区跳舞并挥舞旗帜。

Young people, including women without headscarves, danced and waved flags in a residential area near the city of Karaj.

在首都德黑兰的西部，人们从窗户和阳台上被拍到欢呼、吹口哨，庆祝的喧闹声在高耸的公寓楼间回荡。

In the west of the capital, Tehran, people were filmed cheering and whistling from their windows and balconies as celebrations echoed between tall apartment blocks.

伊朗现已宣布为期四十天的哀悼期，而革命卫队则承诺将对杀害哈梅内伊大阿亚图拉的凶手实施严厉而果断的惩罚，正如他们所说的那样。

Well, Iran has now announced forty days of mourning, while the Revolutionary Guard Corps promised severe decisive punishment for the murderers of Ayatollah Khamenei, as it put it.

但他的去世对伊朗人民意味着什么？

But what does his death mean for the people of Iran?

以下是BBC波斯语服务部的卡沙亚·约翰。

Here's Qashayah John AD of the BBC Persian Service.

三十六年来，他的意志就是国家的意志。

For thirty six years, his will was what was implemented.

无论选举、议会选举，还是总统，所有这些都必须服从于他。

No matter elections, parliamentary elections, a president, all of them were second to him.

因此，他是这个国家最重要的人物，根据伊斯兰共和国宪法，他拥有极高的宗教地位和政治地位，无人能凌驾于他之上。

So he was the most important person in the country, and he had a according to the constitution of the Islamic Republic, he had a high religious, as well as high political standing, and nobody was above him.

他凌驾于法律之上。

He was above the law.

许多人对他执政期间国家的发展方向并不满意。

And many people were not happy with the way the country moved forward during his reign.

这种失望和怨恨的结果就是一月的起义和抗议活动，而这些活动遭到了严厉镇压。

And the result of that dismay and that resentment was the uprisings, was the protests in January, which were heavily crushed.

因此，霍梅尼统治的最后篇章将被铭记为血腥的一章——成千上万因经济状况不满的人在德黑兰及其他城市街头被杀害。

So Khomeini's last chapter of his reign will be remembered as a bloody chapter in which thousands of people were killed on the streets of Tehran and other cities across the country, people who were not happy with their economic situation.

而你现在听到的这种声音，正是那些不会记住霍梅尼这三十六年间的作为，而只会记住他对抗议者镇压的人。

And now the chance you are hearing now, these are the people which will remember Khomeini not by what happened during these three to thirty six years, but by the crackdown on the protesters.

目前谁在掌管这个国家？

Who is in charge of the country at the moment?

我们仍然不知道。

We still don't know.

你看，按照伊斯兰共和国的惯例，霍梅尼去世的消息公布得比往常更快。

Look, considering the standards of the Islamic Republic, the announcement of Khomeini's death was faster than usual.

三十六年前，当他的前任霍梅尼去世时，他们一直等到早上七点才宣布死讯。

Thirty six years ago, when his predecessor Ayatollah Khomeini died, they waited till seven in the morning to announce his death.

霍梅尼的死讯是在早上五点公布的。

Khomeini's death has been announced five in the morning.

这表明他们对权力继承结构有一定信心。

That shows that they have some confidence about the succession structure.

继任人选可能已经确定，但处于保密状态。

The designation has probably been made, but in secret.

我们要记住，问题不仅仅是谁将接替哈梅内伊。

Let's keep in mind, the question is not only who is going to succeed Khamenei.

更重要的是，军队和伊斯兰革命卫队能多快宣布新的指挥结构。

It is how fast the military, the IRGC, will be able to announce its new command structure.

我们知道，在过去的袭击中，不到24小时内，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队和军方的许多高级指挥官就被杀，必须迅速填补空缺，才能实现平稳过渡。

We know that during these attacks in the past less than twenty four hours, many senior commanders of the IRGC and the military forces of Iran have been killed, and they need to be replaced in order for a smooth transition.

我们需要观察他们是否能够继续对以色列和波斯湾地区的美国基地发动袭击。

We have to see whether they managed to sustain their attacks on Israel and US bases across the Persian Gulf region.

也许他们不愿过早宣布，是因为他们还记得哈桑·纳斯鲁拉在以色列空袭中身亡的经历。

And maybe they are reluctant to announce that early because they remember the experience from Hassan Nasrallah's death in an Israeli bombing.

当黎巴嫩真主党宣布纳斯鲁拉的继任者时，此人随后也在以色列的又一次空袭中被杀。

So when the Lebanese Hezbollah announced Nasrallah's replacement, he was also killed in a successive Israeli strike.

所以他们必须非常谨慎。

So they have to be very careful.

他们是知道的。

They know that.

但同时，别忘了这个政权根基不稳。

But at the same time, let's not forget the regime is on shaky grounds.

它已被美国和以色列的袭击削弱。

It's been weakened by US and Israeli attacks.

但更重要的是，它在1月份全国范围的大规模抗议活动中被削弱，上周，伊朗所有主要大学校园都爆发了反对政权的大规模抗议。

But more importantly, it has been weakened by the mass protests across the country in January, and again, last week, all major university campuses in Iran witnessed mass protests against the regime.

我记得看到过学生在大学校园里悬挂哈梅内伊的草人画像，这以前是从未发生过的。

I remember seeing pictures of students hanging effigies of Khamenei in the university campuses, which was never heard of.

因此，政权根基不稳，如果条件成熟，人民有可能取而代之。

So the regime is on shaky ground, and the people have their chance of probably taking over if the conditions are right for them.

BBC波斯语服务的卡希哈尔·贾诺迪。

Kashihar Janodi of the BBC Persian Service.

好吧，阿亚图拉是自1979年伊斯兰革命以来伊朗的第二位领导人。

Well, the Ayatollah was only Iran's second leader since the nineteen seventy nine Islamic revolution.

卡罗琳·霍利回顾了他的一生。

Caroline Hawley looks back at his life.

阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊对伊朗所有重大国家事务拥有最终决定权。

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had the final say on all important matters of state in Iran.

他在霍梅尼阿亚图拉——伊朗神权国家的创立者——执政期间担任总统。

He served as president of the Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini, the founder of Iran's theocratic state.

1989年霍梅尼去世后，阿里·哈梅内伊接任最高领袖。

When he died in 1989, Ali Khamenei took over as supreme leader.

它

It

当他的名字首次被提名为最高领袖人选时，有人认为他并不配这个职位。

suggested when his name was first proposed for the role that he wasn't worthy of it.

他成长于圣城马什哈德，年轻时就成为神职人员，但并非极具影响力的人物。

He'd grown up in the holy city of Mashhad and became a cleric at a young age, though not one of huge consequence.

历史学家阿里·安萨里表示，起初他并不是一个强硬派。

And historian Ali Ansari says that at first, he wasn't a hardliner.

当他担任总统时，他可能是伊朗政治中较为开明的一方。

When he was president, he was probably on the more progressive side of politics in Iran.

关于他的一个有趣之处在于，他的立场在某种意义上使他走向了激进。

The interesting thing about him is is how, in a sense, his position radicalized him.

他的职位腐蚀了他。

His position corrupted him.

人们不断告诉他，他是上帝赐予世界的礼物，诸如此类的话。

People telling him that he's god's gift to the world and this sort thing.

我的意思是，这些话最终会对你产生影响。

I mean, eventually, gets to you.

你会开始相信这些话。

You start to believe it.

作为最高领袖，他必须通过与伊朗的强硬军事力量——伊斯兰革命卫队结盟来建立自己的权力基础。

As supreme leader, he'd had to build his power base by aligning himself with Iran's hardline military force, the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guards.

政权的镇压使越来越多的伊朗人感到疏离。

The regime's repression alienated more and more Iranians.

那些承诺政治改革的民选总统屡次遭到最高领袖的阻挠，而一旦爆发抗议，政权便残酷镇压。

Elected presidents who'd promised political reform were repeatedly thwarted by the supreme leader, and protests against the regime when they broke out were brutally crushed.

2009年，出现了对他统治的首次重大挑战。

In 2009 came the first major challenge to his rule.

由于许多人认为总统选举被系统性操纵，偏向保守派候选人，因而引发了大规模示威。

There were mass demonstrations in response to a presidential election that many Iranians felt was stolen by the system in favor of a conservative candidate.

政权以致命武力予以回应。

The regime responded with deadly force.

然后在2022年，一场由女性领导、高呼“女人、生命、自由”的起义爆发了。

Then in 2022 came an uprising led by women chanting woman, life, freedom.

这场起义始于一位年轻女性玛萨·阿米努的死亡和遭拘押事件，她因被指控未正确佩戴头巾而被捕。

It began after the death and custody of a young woman, Massa Aminu, who'd been arrested and accused of not wearing her hijab properly.

但各个年龄段的抗议者都在要求变革，前所未有地挑战了神职人员统治的合法性。

But protesters of all ages were demanding change, challenging as never before the very legitimacy of clerical rule.

他们高呼‘独裁者去死’，这是对阿里·哈梅内伊的指代；在同年一月爆发的另一场起义中，他们再次喊出这一口号，但遭到前所未有的武力镇压，反而激起了更多人对他的憎恨。

They chanted death to the dictator, a reference to Ali Khamenei as they did again during an uprising in January that was put down with unprecedented force, only engendering more hatred of him.

他始终致力于维护伊斯兰共和国的核心原则。

He was committed to the end to preserving the central tenets of the Islamic Republic.

他像往常一样将动荡归咎于外部势力——伊朗的敌人，以色列和美国。

He blamed the unrest as he always did on outsiders, Iran's enemies, Israel and The US.

在中东地区，他通过资助一系列代理组织来展示权力和影响力，包括黎巴嫩的真主党，旨在威慑以色列的进攻。

Within the Middle East, he tried to project power and influence by sponsoring a network of proxy groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, who were meant to help deter Israel from attacking.

但在2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击之后，以色列发动攻击，所谓的‘抵抗轴心’随之瓦解。

But the so called axis of resistance crumbled under Israeli attack in the wake of the Hamas assault of 10/07/2023.

但真正引发他统治时期最大危机的，是伊朗的核计划。

But it was Iran's nuclear program that provoked the biggest crisis of his rule.

他曾警告美国不要发动攻击，称伊朗不是一个会屈服的国家。

He'd warned America not to attack, saying Iran was not a nation that would surrender.

阿里·安萨里教授表示，哈梅内伊大阿亚图拉至死都是伊斯兰革命的忠实信徒。

Professor Ali Ansari says Ayatollah Khamenei was a true believer to the end in the Islamic revolution.

你知道，他重复了沙阿关于伟大文明的这种理念，但他的伟大文明是这种伟大的伊斯兰文明，除了严格的强硬派之外，很少有人认同。

You know, he was echoing this sort of idea the Shah had about the great civilization, but his great civilization was this great Islamic civilization that very few people bought into apart from the strict hardliners.

而且实际上，他对社会结构造成了巨大的破坏。

And and actually was doing an enormous amount of damage to the fabric of society.

你知道，物质上的损害可以修复，但道德上的损害才是最重要的。

You know, the material damage can be sorted, but it's the moral damage that's the most important, really.

他是中东任职时间最长的统治者，是伊斯兰共和国的强硬捍卫者，但为此付出了巨大代价，他的人民越来越希望有一种不同的统治方式。

He was the longest serving ruler in The Middle East, hardline defender of the Islamic Republic at a huge cost to his people who increasingly wanted a different kind of rule.

卡罗琳·霍利。

Caroline Hawley.

我们的首席国际记者莉兹·杜塞特最近刚从伊朗回来。

Our chief international correspondent, Liz Doucette, has recently returned from Iran.

我问她，这个国家为最高领袖的去世做好准备了吗？

I asked her how prepared is the country for the death of the supreme leader?

去年，甚至在十二天战争之前，就有报道称阿亚图拉·哈梅内伊已经指示名为专家会议的机构为各种可能情况做好准备，包括他的遇刺。

It was reported last year even before the twelve day war that Ayatollah Khamenei had already instructed the body known as the assembly of experts to prepare for any eventuality, including his assassination.

当时，《纽约时报》报道称，已经拟定了一份至少包含三名候选人的短名单，以便在时机到来时能够迅速行动，确保不会出现权力真空。

And at the time, the New York Times reported that a short list of at least three possible candidates had been drawn up so that when the moment came, they would be able to move swiftly to ensure there was no vacuum.

当然，当伊朗看到去年第一波袭击中，以色列仅在第一晚就暗杀了九名核科学家和高级安全官员时，这些准备工作变得更加紧迫，而现在又爆发了一场新的战争。

And, of course, these preparations took on added urgency when Iran saw even in the first wave of attacks last year that Israel was able to assassinate on the first night alone nine nuclear scientists, top security chiefs, and now there is a new war.

专家会议将随时准备采取行动，选出新的最高领袖。

And the assembly of experts will be poised to move into action to choose a new supreme leader.

多年来，人们一直猜测谁有可能接替霍梅尼——自1979年伊朗革命以来的第二位最高领袖。

And there has been speculation for many years over who could possibly replace Ayatollah Khamenei, the second supreme leader since the Iranian revolution of nineteen seventy nine.

在可能的继任者中，有人提到了他的儿子莫萨维的名字。

And among the possible successors has been the name of his son, Mosheva.

但许多人表示：不行。

But there are many who say, no.

这根本不可能，因为在什叶派伊斯兰传统中，你不会将领导权直接传给家族成员。

That simply cannot be possible because in Shia Islam tradition, you don't have that kind of, anointing your with some member of your own family.

近年来和几十年来，针对当权者的抗议活动层出不穷。

Now there have been many protests in recent years and decades against the authorities.

霍梅尼的去世会引发政权更迭，或者触发镇压吗？

Could the death of the Ayatollah, could that lead to regime change or perhaps trigger a crackdown?

我认为，认为一个人的更替就意味着政权终结，这种想法太过激进了。

I think it would be a big leap to think that the change of one individual would mean the end of the regime.

这将是政权内部的变动。

It would be change in the regime.

但一旦宣布新领导人上任，无论这位神职人员持何种立场——他肯定是一位保守派神职人员——他的首要目标都绝对相同，那就是确保伊斯兰共和国的存续、神职统治的延续，以及维持这个体制的安全部队的持续权力。

But once it's been announced that there is a a new person in charge, whatever the orientation of this cleric, and he's certain to be a conservative cleric, his overriding objective will be absolutely the same, and that is the survival of the Islamic Republic, the survival of clerical rule, and the continuing power of the of the security forces who keep this system in place.

这对这个政权来说是绝对不可逾越的红线，我们已经看到了这一点。

That is the absolutely red line for this regime, and we've seen that.

无论总统是被视为改革派还是强硬派，无论他们是谁，一旦涉及这个神职政权的存续，他们都会一致服从。

Whether there have, for example, been presidents who are regarded more as more reformist or hardline, no matter who they are, they all fall in line when it comes to the survival of of this clerical regime.

这些袭击是否会让他们认真思考可能的方向转变？当然，毕竟在委内瑞拉，你们曾目睹一位总统被罢免，另一位总统上台并与美国合作。

Will these attacks concentrate their minds about a possible shift in direction, of course, after what happened in Venezuela where you had the removal of a president and the a new a new president stepping into place and working with The United States Of America.

伊朗会发生类似的情况吗？

Could that happen in Iran?

这会困难得多，但如今确实是非同寻常的时期。

It will be much more difficult, but these are are really extraordinary times.

除了向其所谓的地区敌对势力发射导弹外，伊朗还表示已关闭了霍尔木兹海峡——这一石油和天然气运输的关键通道。

Now as well as firing missiles at what it calls hostile forces in the region, Iran says it's closed the Strait Of Hormuz, that vital artery for for oil and gas.

这会产生什么影响？伊朗还可能采取哪些行动？

What impact could that have, and what else might the Iranians do?

伊朗在回应其所谓的自卫时，其目标是动用其全部 arsenal，以对抗世界上最强大的军事力量以及以色列的军事实力。

Iran's ambition, of course, as it reacts in what it calls self defense, is to use every weapon in its arsenal as it faces up against the most powerful military in the world as well as the military might of of of Israel.

在它的武器库中，伊朗有能力关闭这一全球最具战略意义的水道。

And in that armory, it has the ability to close this one of the world's most strategic waterways.

如果霍尔木兹海峡——这个关键咽喉——被关闭任何一段时间，都将对全球产生广泛影响，因为大量海上交通，包括油轮，都经过这片水域。

And if the Strait Of Hormuz, this choke point, is shut off for any length of time, this will have a wide ranging repercussions for the world over because so much maritime traffic, including oil tankers, go through these waters.

伊朗深知这一点。

Iran knows that.

但当然，伊朗本身也依赖这条水道，因此不会希望长期过度封锁它。

But, of course, Iran also benefits from that waterway, so won't want to pinch it too much too long.

但这无疑是伊朗拥有的武器之一，它一直明确表示，愿意使用这一武器，尽可能造成巨大伤害，以尽快结束它所认为的侵略行为。

But that certainly is one of the weapons that, it has always made clear that it's willing to use to inflict as much pain as possible in order to end this aggression as it sees it as soon as possible.

莉兹·杜塞特。

Liz Doucette.

在我们录制本播客时，有报道称，伊朗总统、司法首脑以及一个强大的监护委员会的宗教领袖三人委员会将暂时接管伊朗的领导职责，直至选出继任者。

And as we record this podcast, it's being reported that a council of three people, the Iranian president, the head of the judiciary, and a cleric on the powerful Guardian Council will temporarily assume leadership duties in Iran until a successor can be chosen.

接下来在本播客中，我们将探讨伊朗政府现在的战略是什么。

Still to come on the podcast, what is the strategy now for the Iranian government?

我认为它正处于困境之中。

I think it is beleaguered.

它已经陷入恐慌。

It is panicked.

它内部分裂、犹豫不决。

It is divided and dithering.

但他们所想的是：我们能比特朗普撑得更久。

But what they will be thinking is we can last longer than Trump.

我们听一位国防专家的见解。

We hear from a defense expert.

这可不是我们当初被承诺的未来。

This is not the future we were promised.

这作为节目的标语怎么样？

Like, how about that for a tagline for the show?

来自BBC，这是《界面》节目，探讨科技如何重塑你的每周生活与整个世界。

From the BBC, this is the interface, the show that explores how tech is rewiring your week and your world.

这与季度财报或科技评测无关。

This isn't about quarterly earnings or about tech reviews.

这关乎科技实际上如何影响你的工作、政治和日常生活。

It's about what technology is actually doing to your work and your politics, your everyday life.

以及人们使用互联网的各种怪异方式。

And all the bizarre ways people are using the Internet.

在bbc.com或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

您正在收听全球新闻播客。

You're listening to the Global News Podcast.

在美国和以色列于周六在纽约举行的联合国安理会紧急会议上，两国为针对伊朗的袭击辩护，称其行动是为了阻止一场生存威胁。

The US and Israel defended their attacks on Iran during an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council in New York on Saturday, saying they acted to stop an existential threat.

但伊朗大使阿米尔·赛义德·伊拉瓦尼指责这两个国家故意攻击人口密集地区。

But the Iranian ambassador, Amir Syed Iravani, accused the two nations of deliberately attacking populated areas.

由于这次残酷的武装袭击，数百名平民丧生或受伤。

As a result of this brutal armed attack, hundreds of civilians have been killed and injured.

除了新的民用住宅楼外，侵略者还袭击了米诺普市的一所学校，造成100多名儿童死亡。

In addition to the new mill civilian residential building, the aggressors have also targeted a school in the city of Minop, killing more than 100 children.

无辜平民的伤亡人数仍在持续上升。

The number of innocent civilians continues to rise.

这不仅是一次侵略行为。

This is not only an act of aggression.

这是一场战争罪，也是对人类的犯罪。

It is a war crime and a crime against humanity.

我们在联合国总部的记者内达·塔维克向我们介绍了更多关于这次会议的情况。

Our correspondent at UN headquarters, Neda Tawfiq, told us more about the meeting.

联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯没有使用‘非法’这个词，但他谈到了各国根据《联合国宪章》所承担的义务。

The UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres, didn't use the word illegal, but he talked about countries' obligations under the UN Charter.

在这方面，他谴责了美国和以色列对伊朗的空袭，同时也谴责了伊朗对地区国家的报复性攻击。

And in that respect, he condemned The US Israeli air strikes on Iran, and he also condemned Iran's retaliatory attacks on, countries in the region.

尽管美国驻联合国代表迈克·沃尔茨和以色列驻联合国代表丹尼·达农强烈为袭击伊朗辩护，但我们听到美国代表表示，这是一个需要道德清晰度的历史时刻，而特朗普总统应对了这一时刻。

And, essentially, even though The United States ambassador Mike Waltz and Israel's ambassador Danny Dannon strongly defended striking Iran, we heard from The US ambassador saying it was a moment in history that required moral clarity, and president Trump had met the moment.

他们将通过实力确保和平。

They were going to, ensure peace through strength.

我们还听到以色列代表表示，这一决定绝非一时冲动做出的。

And we heard, the Israeli ambassador saying that this was not in any way a decision that was made impulsively.

尽管有如此辩护，就连安理会的西方盟友法国和英国也呼吁立即停止行动，认为该地区再也承受不起更多的动荡。

So despite that defense, even from their western allies on the council, France and The UK, everyone called for this to end, saying that the region really can't deal with any more destabilization.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这次安理会会议会带来任何具体的行动吗？

I mean, will there be any concrete action as a result of this Security Council meeting?

听好了。

Look.

我的意思是，安理会长期以来在伊朗问题上陷入僵局，但你看看俄罗斯，作为常任理事国，它入侵了乌克兰。

I mean, the Security Council has long been paralyzed over Iran, but certainly, you have Russia, a permanent member, which invaded Ukraine.

还有美国，也深度卷入了加沙战争，你知道的。

You have The United States, has been deeply involved, you know, in the war in Gaza.

因此，这些分歧根深蒂固。

And so these divides run very deep.

鉴于安理会内部的这些分歧，几乎不可能采取任何行动。

So there's unlikely to be any action whatsoever given those divides on the council.

我们今天又看到了这种情况，俄罗斯和中国表示，伊朗在阿曼进行的调解谈判期间遭到了背后捅刀，因为针对伊朗的空袭就发生在这段谈判期间。

And we saw that play out again today with Russia and China saying that Iran had been stabbed in the back because during those mediated talks on that Oman was, indirectly helping with, you know, the the strikes on Iran happened in the midst of that.

这些分歧确实存在，但召开紧急会议的意义在于，表明各方都意识到当前局势的危险性和严重性，即使他们无法采取行动。

So those divides are there, but the point of these emergency meetings is showing that they understand the danger of this moment and the seriousness of it even if they can't act.

是的。

Yeah.

那美国的盟友呢？

What about America's allies?

他们强烈反对伊朗在该地区的行动，但与此同时，他们可能也不希望发生这种战争。

They're deeply opposed to Iran's actions in the region, and yet at the same time, they probably don't want this kind of war.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

我的意思是，我们也要谈谈今天发言的海湾国家，因为法国表示，这些国家在防务方面会尽其所能提供帮助，因为巴林发言称，他们正努力促成调解谈判。

I mean, let's also talk about, for example, the Gulf countries that that spoke today because France, you know, suggested that they would help, those countries in any way they can with defense because, Bahrain spoke and said they were trying to help mediate talks.

他们推动和平解决，因此拒绝伊朗声称可以对他们进行防御性打击的说法。

They were pushing for a peaceful resolution, and so they reject Iran's suggestion that it can target them defensively.

对于英国和法国来说，两者都表示需要重启关于德黑兰核计划的谈判，但他们明白，这只能通过外交方式解决，因为中东当前的局势风险太高，任何误判都可能导致冲突进一步蔓延至其他地区伙伴。

And for The UK and France, both of them saying there needs to be resumption on talks on Tehran's nuclear program, but they understand that this can only be solved in a diplomatic way because the stakes are just too high in The Middle East for a miscalculation right now and for, as I said, the spreading further to other regional partners.

纳德·塔韦菲克在纽约联合国总部。

Nader Tawfiq at the United Nations in New York.

周日凌晨，伊朗表示，它已对以色列和中东地区的美国基地发动了迄今为止最猛烈的袭击。

In the early hours of Sunday, Iran said it was launching its most intense operation yet against Israel and US bases in the Middle East.

此前，阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林、科威特、伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯和约旦也报告了袭击事件，其中阿联酋有两人死亡。

Earlier strikes were reported in The UAE with two dead, as well as in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

迪拜多个地点还报告发生火灾，迪拜机场的一次袭击导致四人受伤。

There were also reports of fires at multiple sites in Dubai and four people were injured in a strike on Dubai Airport.

以色列也遭到了袭击。

Israel has also been targeted.

我们的记者尤科·巴切加正在耶路撒冷。

Our correspondent Yuko Bachega is in Jerusalem.

在这里，以色列全天都不断响起空袭警报，国家防空系统持续进行拦截。

Here, in Israel, it's been a day of constant air raid alerts, and interceptions by the country's air defense systems.

事实上，在特拉维夫，紧急救援人员正在被袭击的社区开展救援行动。

And in fact, in Tel Aviv, emergency services are now carrying out rescue operations in a neighborhood that was hit.

据当地应急服务部门称，至少有二十一人受伤。

And according to, the emergency services there, at least twenty one people were injured.

其中至少一人情况危急，且有一栋住宅楼因这次袭击部分被毁。

At least one of them is in a critical condition, and, one residential building there was, partially destroyed as a result of this impact.

以色列当局表示，今天首次发生重大袭击，伊朗发射了至少一百枚导弹和无人机，但大多数人认为，其中绝大多数被以色列军方拦截，或落在了国内的空旷地区。

So the first significant impact today, the Israeli authority said around or at least a 100 missiles and drones were fired by Iran, but it is believed that the vast majority of them were either intercepted by the country's military or fell in open areas in the country.

但他们再次向记者简报称，认为这次行动可能还会持续数天。

But, again, they're briefing reporters saying that they believe that this operation is likely to continue for several more days.

目前以色列已进入紧急状态，这意味着学校已关闭。

Now there is a state of emergency in place in Israel, which means that schools are closed.

工作场所也已关闭。

Workplaces have also been closed.

领空已关闭，所有公共集会均被禁止。

The airspace has been shut down, and, obviously, all public gatherings have been banned.

当局警告民众保持警惕，遵守指示，靠近避难所，因为他们认为，伊朗为回应美国和以色列的袭击而发射的导弹威胁仍将持续。

And the population here is being warned to stay alert, to follow the instructions, and to stay close to shelters because they believe that this threat coming from these missiles fired Iran in response to these attacks by the Americans and the Israelis is going to continue.

雨果·巴赫埃加发自耶路撒冷。

Hugo Bachega in Jerusalem.

《经济学人》的防务编辑沙什ank·乔希对伊朗的回应进行了评估。

Well, the defense editor of The Economist, Shashank Joshi, has been assessing Iran's response.

乔·派克询问，这次回应与去年以色列和美国发动的十二天战争后的报复相比如何。

Joe Pike asked how it compared to the retaliation after the twelve day war with Israel and The US last year.

完全不同。

Completely different.

这次快得多。

It's much quicker.

我认为，去年伊朗对以色列首次袭击的回应花了大约十八个小时。

It took about eighteen hours for the Iranians to respond to the first Israeli strike last year, I think.

这次几个小时内就做出了反应，非常迅速，尽管规模较小。

This was within hours, very fast, albeit on quite a small scale.

但更重要的是，这次的范围要广泛得多。

But more importantly, it was much, much broader.

这在地理范围和目标选择上都是如此。

That's both geographically and in terms of targets.

他们袭击了海湾合作委员会几乎所有成员国，除了阿曼——这并不意外，因为阿曼一直在为美国进行调解。

They've hit pretty much all the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council apart from Oman, which is to be expected since Oman was doing the mediation with America.

他们不仅袭击了美军基地，比如驻巴林的第五舰队，而且有趣的是，还打击了经济目标。

And they've struck not just US military bases like the fifth fleet in Bahrain, but actually, interestingly, also hitting economic targets.

似乎是针对沙特东部省份的石油产业，或者我也不清楚这个地区还有什么其他目标值得他们袭击。

It seems oil industry in the eastern province in Saudi Arabia or at least I don't know what else they'd be hitting in that part of the world.

当然，他们还袭击了迪拜。

And, of course, striking Dubai.

你可能已经看过这些视频了。

You know, you may have seen these videos.

我刚看到一段关于朱美拉棕榈岛周边区域被击中的画面。

I've just seen one of areas around the Burj Al Arab being being struck.

这些显然是为了打击阿联酋人口密集、至关重要的经济中心，表明：除非你们施压美国停止这场冲突，否则我们有能力破坏你们的经济模式。

Those are are really efforts to go after these densely populated, vitally important economic areas for The United Arab Emirates to say we can disrupt your economic model unless you lean on The United States to stop this conflict.

我预计在未来几天内会看到更多这样的情况。

And I expect to see a little bit more of that in the days ahead.

特拉沙克，你对伊朗政府和军方目前的心态有何评估？

And, Trashak, what is your assessment of the mentality of the Iranian government and the military at this point?

我也想知道他们能维持这种状态多久？

And I suppose also how long they're able to sustain this?

我认为他们已陷入困境。

I think it is beleaguered.

他们感到恐慌。

It is panicked.

他们内部分裂、犹豫不决。

It is divided and dithering.

在过去两年的危机时刻，最高领袖一直难以做出果断决策。

The supreme leader struggled to make decisive decisions over the last two years in moments of crisis.

当你转入地下，担心以色列人正在追踪你的电子通信时，沟通和传达信息就会变得更加困难。

And when you're going underground and you're worried that the Israelis are tracking your electronic communications, then it becomes all the harder to communicate and get your messages out.

因此，以色列方面的部分努力是通过斩首领导层来破坏伊朗的指挥与控制，我认为这将对伊朗的协调能力产生巨大影响。

So part of the effort here by the Israelis is to disrupt Iranian command and control by decapitating the leadership, and I think that that will have a huge impact on Iran's ability to coordinate.

但他们所想的是：我们能比特朗普撑得更久。

But what they will be thinking is we can last longer than Trump.

特朗普并不想要一场持续四周、一个月的战争。

Trump doesn't want a four week, month long campaign.

这绝对不是他想要的。

That's absolutely not what he'd like.

而我们可以撑过这段时间，熬过这场危机，并挫败这场政权更迭的企图。

And we can survive that long and ride this out, and we can confound this effort at regime change.

我认为这将是他们现在的策略。

And I think that will be their strategy now.

《经济学人》的沙什ank·乔希。

Shashank Joshi of The Economist.

在美国，人们对这些袭击的反应褒贬不一。

In The US, there's been a mixed reception to the attacks.

民主党人对总统在未寻求国会批准的情况下下令发动袭击表示不满。

Democrats expressed frustration that the president ordered the strikes without seeking congressional approval.

许多共和党人支持这一行动，但一些MAGA忠实支持者，包括塔克·卡尔森和玛乔丽·泰勒·格林，持反对意见，后者称这是背叛。

Many Republicans backed it, but some of the MAGA faithful, including Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene, were opposed with the latter calling it a betrayal.

更多详情请看我们的记者西米·乔拉索从华盛顿发回的报道。

More details from our correspondent, Simi Jolaosso, in Washington.

共和党人对唐纳德·特朗普对伊朗的袭击反应不一。

There's been mixed reaction from Republicans to Donald Trump's, strikes in Iran.

我们听到了参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩的说法，他表示伊朗的核野心对美国构成了明确且不可接受的威胁，而伊朗拒绝了外交途径，他赞扬了特朗普总统采取的行动。

We've heard from senate majority leader John Thune who says that Iran's nuclear ambitions pose a clear and unacceptable threat to The US and that Iran has refused, diplomatic routes, and he's, commended president Trump for taking action.

司法部长帕姆·邦迪也称特朗普总统勇敢而果断，这反映了类似的观点。

That's reflected by attorney general Pam Bondi who described president Trump as courageous and decisive.

众议院议长迈克·约翰逊也表示，伊朗因拒绝与美国达成协议而正面临严重后果，并称特朗普总统和政府已尽一切努力寻求和平与外交解决方案。

And then house speaker Mike Johnson has also said that Iran is now facing severe consequences for its, lack of, agreeing to a deal with The US and that president Trump and the administration have made every effort for a peaceful way forward and for a diplomatic solution.

但并非所有共和党人都支持特朗普总统的行动。

But not all Republicans are supporting, president Trump's actions.

托马斯·马西议员表示他反对这场战争，并将与那些决定立即就战争权力决议进行投票的民主党人站在一起。

Representative Thomas Massey has said that he opposes the war, and he'll he will be siding with Democrats Democrats he who have decided to vote on a war powers resolution immediately.

战争权力决议是一项限制总统部署军队权力的法律。

The war powers resolution is a law that checks the president's power to deploy troops.

它要求总统在48小时内通知并说明其决定给国会，并允许最多六十天的军事行动，除非国会批准进一步的部队部署。

It gives him 48 to notify and explain his decision to congress and will allow, sixty days of engagement unless congress approves further, deployments by troops.

西米·贾拉洛索在华盛顿。

Simi Jalalosho in Washington.

未来几天和几周，伊朗人民的生活会是什么样子？

So what does the next few days and weeks look like for the Iranian people?

让我们再次听听我们的首席国际记者莉兹·杜塞特的报道。

Let's hear again from our chief international correspondent, Liz Doucette.

好吧，用他的话说，这真的是前所未有的局面。

Well, to use his expression, this is really uncharted territory.

无论伊朗领导人如何设想、如何准备这一刻，战争终究还是爆发了。

No matter how much the Iranian leaders have thought about this moment, prepared for this moment, a war has been unleashed.

即使在战争刚开始的第一天，一次打击就已带来巨大变化——伊朗伊斯兰共和国的最高领袖和许多其他高级政治与安全官员丧生。

And even with at its very start in one day of strikes, so much already is is changing with the death of the the supreme leader and many other, senior political and security officials in the Islamic Republic Of Iran.

当然，这一时刻正值伊朗不仅面临前所未有的外部威胁，还遭遇内部动荡。

And, of course, it comes at a moment where Iran has been facing not just an unprecedented external threat, but internal upheaval.

本月早些时候我们身处伊朗时，不得不说，那里感觉像一个完全不同的国家，人们对使用致命武力造成伊朗历史上最大规模人员伤亡的愤怒与悲痛，依然历历在目。

When we were in, Iran earlier this month, I have to say that it felt like a different country and the anger and the pain over the the use of lethal force which caused the greatest loss of life in the thousands in Iran's history, it was still raw.

伊朗各地有许多人希望，这将成为他们所渴望的系统性变革的开端。

There are are those across Iran who are hoping that this will be the beginning of the change, the systemic change that they want.

与此同时，伊斯兰共和国及其革命的支持者们正在权衡如何最好地保住权力。

And at the same time, the supporters of the Islamic republic and its revolution will be calculating how best they can hold on to power.

当伊朗同时面对国内问题和这场极其不可预测的战争时，这正是伊朗伊斯兰共和国的关键时刻。

This is a defining moment in the Islamic Republic Of Iran as it faces off against problems at home and this very unpredictable war that is now confronting it.

我们的首席国际记者，莉兹·杜塞特。

Our chief international correspondent, Liz Doucette.

以上就是我们目前的全部内容。

And that is all from us for now.

我们很快就会回来，你可以发送邮件至 globalpodcast@BBC.co.uk。

We'll be back very soon, but you can email us at globalpodcast@BBC.co.uk.

本期节目由詹姆斯·派珀混音，由斯蒂芬妮·扎克森和西奥班·莱希制作。

This edition was mixed by James Piper and produced by Stephanie Zacherson and Siobhan Lehi.

我们的编辑是凯伦·马丁。

Our editors, Karen Martin.

我是奥利弗·康韦。

I'm Oliver Conway.

下次再见。

Until next time.

再见。

Goodbye.

在过去三十年里，我一直在努力更好地理解金融领域，从董事会、新闻编辑室到交易大厅。

I've spent the last three decades trying to better understand money across the boardroom, the newsroom, and the trading floor.

这段时长比大多数播客主持人活过的年头还要长。

That's longer than most podcast hosts have been alive.

但即使是我，也还有很多问题。

But even I've got questions.

每周都来听我的节目《Maren Talks Money》（来自彭博播客），我是Maren Sumsupset Webb，我会与基金经理、策略师和专家深入探讨市场的真实运作方式。

Join me, Maren Sumsupset Webb, every week for my show, Maren Talks Money from Bloomberg Podcasts, where I have in-depth conversations with fund managers, strategists, and experts about how markets really work.

此外，我还会在另一期节目中回答听众关于如何让市场为你服务的问题。

And join me for a separate episode where I answer listener questions on how to make those markets work for you.

请在Apple Podcasts、Spotify或您收听的任何平台关注《Merit Talks Money》。

Follow Merit Talks Money on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen.