欧盟对抖音国际版采取强硬措施

这个BBC播客由英国境外的广告支持。

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside The UK.

亚太地区，一个本地趋势具有全球影响力的地方。

The Asia Pacific, a region where local trends have global reach.

韩国护肤品随着K-pop热潮而兴起。

Korean skincare has taken off with the craze of k pop.

未来的挑战是共同的。

And future challenges are shared.

看看气候风险。

Look at climate risks.

亚洲是全球受海平面上升影响最严重的地区。

Asia was the most exposed region to

世界上海平面上升最严重的地区。

sea level rise in the world.

《亚太播客》深入探讨塑造该地区的一个重大故事，并提供最了解此事之人的关键见解。

The Asia Pacific podcast explores one big story shaping the region with essential insight from those who know it best.

来自BBC世界服务的亚太地区。

Asia Pacific from the BBC World Service.

立即收听。

Listen now.

在您收听BBC播客的任何平台搜索‘亚太地区’。

Search for Asia Pacific wherever you get your BBC podcast.

美国正在变化，世界也是如此。

America is changing, and so is the world.

但美国正在发生的事情不仅仅是全球动荡的原因。

But what's happening in America isn't just a cause of global upheaval.

它也是正在世界各地发生的动荡的征兆。

It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

我是来自华盛顿特区的阿斯马哈利德。

I'm Asmachalid in Washington DC.

我是来自伦敦的特里斯坦·雷德曼，欢迎收听《全球故事》。

I'm Tristan Redman in London, and this is the Global Story.

每个工作日，我们都会为您带来

Every weekday, we'll bring you

一个来自世界与美国交汇点的故事。

a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.

在 bbc.com 或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

TikTok。

TikTok.

时间到了。

Time's up.

TikTok 没有正确评估其成瘾性功能对用户的潜在危害，也未采取有效措施来缓解此类风险。

TikTok did not properly assess how its addictive features can harm users, and they did not implement effective measures to mitigate such risks.

今天，欧洲正迅速采取行动，禁止儿童使用社交媒体。

Today, Europe's rapid moves towards a social media ban for children.

欧洲联盟在制定自身规则方面拥有主权，尤其是在保护未成年人在线安全方面。

European Union is sovereign when it comes to setting up their own rules, especially when it comes to minors protection online.

这是来自BBC世界服务的《世界商业报道》。

This is World Business Report from the BBC World Service.

我是埃德·巴特勒，今天我们将关注欧盟针对TikTok的最新裁决，以及可能对所有社交媒体平台实施的儿童使用禁令。

I'm Ed Butler, and today, we're gonna be looking at those latest EU rulings against TikTok and potentially a wider European ban on all social media platforms for children.

这将如何实施？

How is this gonna work?

本期节目还将探讨古巴即将面临的经济危机，以及今年广告商在超级碗广告时段上不断攀升的惊人支出。

Also in the show, a sense of impending economic crisis in Cuba and the ever crazier sums being spent by advertisers this year or for spots at the Super Bowl.

首先，欧盟委员会要求这家中国拥有的视频平台TikTok对其所谓的成瘾性设计进行整改。

Well, first off, the European Commission has required the Chinese owned video platform TikTok to introduce changes to what it called its addictive design.

委员会发言人托马斯·雷尼尔表示，包括无限滚动和自动播放在内的功能，可能损害用户，尤其是未成年人和年轻成年人的身心健康，因此违反了数字内容法规。

Features, including infinite scroll and autoplay, were, according to the commission, the commission spokesman Thomas Rainier, potentially harming the well-being of users, particularly minors and young adults, and they were therefore in breach of digital content regulations.

TikTok在欧盟拥有1.7亿用户。

TikTok reaches 170,000,000 users in the European Union.

其中大多数是儿童。

Most of these are children.

在午夜之后，13至18岁的儿童使用TikTok的比例远超其他任何平台。

TikTok is by far the most used platform after midnight by children between 13 and 18.

这些数据令人极度担忧，尤其对我们的孩子而言，这对其心理健康和福祉构成了重大风险。

These statistics are extremely alarming, especially for our kids, and this poses major risks to their mental health and well-being.

委员会表示，TikTok现有的屏幕使用时间保护措施无效。

Well, the commission says that TikTok's existing screen time safeguards are ineffective.

如果他们的主张得到证实，将对该公司处以高达其全球年营业额6%的罚款。

And if their arguments are confirmed, it will impose a fine of up to 6% of the company's total worldwide annual turnover.

这相当于数十亿美元。

That is many billions of dollars.

我们向TikTok询问了他们的回应。

We asked TikTok for their response.

一位发言人通过书面声明告诉我们，这些调查结果对我们的平台进行了完全虚假且毫无根据的描述。

A spokesperson told us in a written statement, the findings present a categorically false and entirely meritless depiction of our platform.

我们将采取一切必要措施，通过所有可用途径对这些指控提出挑战。

We will take whatever steps are necessary challenge them through every means available to us.

萨拉·霍奇对此有什么看法？

What does Sarah Hodge think about this?

她是巴尔斯帕大学的网络心理学家。

She's a cyberpsychologist at Bar Spar University.

你好，霍奇医生。

Hi there, doctor Hodge.

感谢你参与我们的访谈。

Thank you for joining us.

总的来说，你怎么看？

What do you reckon in general terms then?

委员会认为像TikTok这样的平台其基本形式、或者说架构，正在促进成瘾，这种说法站得住脚吗？

Is it tenable by the commission to argue that the basic format, the the architecture if you like of a of a platform like TikTok is promoting addiction?

这是个很好的问题，因为研究界对这是否构成成瘾、以及在什么情况下才算成瘾，一直存在很多争论。

It's a great question because there's been a lot of debate in the research about whether it would be an addiction and when it counts as addiction.

目前尚不明确，学术界对此看法分歧很大，是否认为这是一种成瘾。

So it's really not clear at the moment and it's quite divided whether people do think it's an addiction from an academic point of view.

然而，从体验的角度来看，人们实际使用这些平台时——这不仅仅是TikTok，还包括其他一些平台——有时他们会感觉这些平台具有成瘾性，这一点本身或许值得深入探讨。

However, from an experiential point of view, like people actually using the platforms and this isn't just TikTok, this is other platforms that actually sometimes they feel like it's addictive and that in itself might need to actually be explored.

是的。

Yeah.

那么，您对用户、尤其是儿童的研究呢？

Your studies then of of users, children specifically, I guess.

委员会提到了一些工具，比如无限滚动、自动播放、推送通知，还有一个被称为推荐系统的东西，它高度个性化。

The commission has talked about tools like infinite scroll, autoplay, push notifications, something called a a a recommender system, which is highly personalised.

我的意思是，我想我们在其他社交媒体平台上也都很熟悉这些东西，对吧？

I mean, I guess we're familiar with things like this on other social platforms as well, aren't we?

我的意思是，您认为这些功能在人们使用这些平台时遇到的问题中扮演了重要角色吗？

I mean, are they a significant part, do you think, of the problem that people find for these platforms?

我认为这些功能在人们如何使用这些平台以及花费多少时间上起着很大作用。

I think it has a lot to play in how people use these platforms and how much time they spend.

我知道很多这类功能会让人在平台和手机上停留更久，无论他们用的是什么设备，尤其是像‘刷负新闻’这样的功能。

Know a lot of these features can keep people on the platforms and their phones whatever they're using a bit longer than they to be, especially things like doom scrolling.

很多人都表示，他们最终在手机上花费的时间远超原计划。

Know a lot of people of all ages say that they end up on their phone a lot longer than they really plan to.

告诉我关于核心科学的内容。

Tell me about the core science.

那么，我们怎么认为呢？

I mean, what do we think then?

特别是在儿童领域，我们这里主要讨论的是儿童。

Particularly in the realm of children, and we are talking primarily about children here.

像社会科学家乔纳森·海特这样的人，不是已经提出了很多关于社交媒体的破坏性影响的论断吗？比如注意力缺陷、睡眠丧失，以及其他许多问题，包括人际关系问题。

People like the social scientist Jonathan Haidt, haven't they have made big claims about the corrosive impact of social media, attention deficit, loss of sleep, many other things as well as kind of relationship issues.

我们究竟确切知道些什么？

What do we know definitively?

要确切地获得这些答案仍然非常困难，因为其中一些问题还很新。

Well definitively it's still really difficult to get some of these answers because some of it is still quite new.

比如，TikTok 是一个短视频平台。

Like for example, TikTok is a short video.

许多其他平台也提供短视频。

Lots of other platforms offer short videos as well.

还有一些新兴的研究正在考察这些短视频及其观看行为可能产生的影响，尤其是在注意力方面，似乎可能对注意力跨度造成影响。

And there is some emerging research looking at like these short videos and watching them and what kind of impact it might have And particularly on attention, it seems there could be an impact on attention spans.

但这仍然是一个新兴领域，因为我们还在这个领域进行更多研究。

But this is still kind of emerging as we sort of do more research in the area.

这对儿童来说有什么特别的不同吗？

Is it specifically different for children?

这是一个非常重要的因素，因为儿童仍在发育中，他们是一个不同的群体。

Now that is a really important factor to highlight because children are still developing, they are a different demographic.

我们目前还不知道这个问题的答案。

We don't know the answers to that yet.

我们仍在研究这一点，但我们可以设想，如果我们已经看到成年人群体中存在差异，那么在儿童身上，尤其是在注意力等方面，我们也会预期看到类似的影响。

We're still looking into that but we can imagine that if we're already seeing that there are differences in adult populations that we would expect to see the same impacts in children as well when it comes to things like attention.

当然，还有他们的情感发展以及其他在我们所讨论的年龄段中非常关键且易受影响的方面。

And of course their emotional development and other things which are vulnerable and are very important I guess at the ages we're talking about.

没错。

Exactly.

儿童涉及的因素太多，他们可能非常脆弱。

There's so many factors that children mean they could be quite vulnerable.

即使我们考虑一些生成式AI内容，什么是真实的、什么是虚假的，这对成年人来说都极具挑战，而对儿童尤其如此，因为他们仍在学习如何辨别真实与虚假。

Even things like if we're thinking about some of the generative AI content, what's real and what's not, I think that's really challenging for even adults, but actually children especially because they're still learning about what is real and how do they determine that.

谢谢萨拉·霍奇医生。

Doctor Sarah Hodge, thank you very much indeed.

TikTok的这些发现正值多个欧洲国家正采取措施限制年轻用户访问社交媒体。

The TikTok findings of course come as several European countries are moving to curb access to social media generally for younger users.

希腊和西班牙正在积极采取措施，拟对儿童实施社交媒体禁令。

Greece and Spain are two countries taking active steps right now towards introducing a social media ban for children.

并非所有人都对此感到满意，包括一些儿童在内。

Not everyone is happy about this, some of them including children.

以下是两位年轻公民的回应：西班牙14岁少女卡拉和15岁的希腊少年雅尼斯。

Here's a response of two younger citizens, the Spanish teenager Carla, she's 14, and the 15 year old Greek teenager Yanis.

我完全反对全面禁止，但我认为家长控制这类措施，我总体上并不反对。

I am completely against ban and it in general, but I believe that the issue of parental control and such, well, I generally have nothing against it.

如果我们建立一些机制，让家长也关注孩子在看什么，就像我父母从给我手机起就一直在做的那样，我觉得根本没什么问题。

If we put protocols and such in place so that parents are also focused on what their children are watching and all that, which is what my parents have been doing since they gave me my mobile phone, I think there really isn't any problem.

对许多孩子来说，社交媒体已经是他们生活的重要组成部分，我认为仅靠法律很难轻易剥夺这一点，因为这是他们与朋友保持联系和沟通的方式。

Certainly, for many kids, it is an integral part of their lives, and I don't think it is so easy for it to be taken away by a law because this is the way they keep in contact and communicate with their friends.

即使他们不是面对面交流，我也认为切断这种沟通方式，也会切断孩子们之间的关系。

Even though they're not speaking face to face, I believe that by cutting off this type of communication will also cut off the relationship between the kids.

那么，欧洲一些国家的禁令真的即将实施吗？

So is a ban among certain European countries actually imminent?

让我们听听克拉拉·查帕斯的说法。

Let's hear from Clara Chappas.

她是法国数字事务和人工智能大使。

She's France's ambassador for digital affairs and AI.

保护未成年人在线安全长期以来一直是法国总统马克龙推动的重点，我们现在正处在一个临界点，因为就在十天前，议会通过了一项法律，旨在禁止15岁以下青少年使用社交媒体，如果一切顺利，该规定最早将于2026年9月生效，正好赶在新生入学时实施。

Protecting minors online has been a key priority pushed by president Emmanuel Macron for France for quite a while now, and we're reaching a tipping point because just ten days ago, the parliament has voted a law that aims to ban social networks below 15 year olds with the idea that if everything goes well, the implementation would be effective as early as September 2026, right on time for when the new kids will arrive at school.

所以很快就会了，我觉得。

So pretty soon, I think.

到目前为止，你们从澳大利亚看到了哪些证据？

What is the evidence from Australia that you are seeing so far?

我的意思是，那不是第一个正式的禁令吗？

I mean, that that was the first formal ban, wasn't it?

是的。

Yeah.

我们在澳大利亚看到这是一次成功的经验，同时结合我们法国自身的经验——我们差不多一年前就实施了在色情网站上建立准确的年龄验证系统。

We're seeing it as a successful experience in Australia, but also looking at our own experience in France, getting proper age verification system on pornographic websites, which is something we've been implemented close to a year ago now.

因此，之前访问色情网站的儿童中，接近一半现在已经不再访问了。

And as a result of that, close to half of the children who were previously accessing pornographic websites are not accessing it anymore.

所以这完美吗？

So is it perfect?

可能不是。

Probably not.

我的意思是，任何规则都总有办法被绕过，我们所有听的人都是如此。

I mean, with any rules, you can always find ways to circumvent all the people listening to us.

我的意思是，我们当中有些人未成年时可能也尝试过喝酒。

I mean, we've been underaged, and some of us probably have tried and drink alcohol being underaged.

并不是因为有法律，就代表一切完美无缺。

It's not because there is a law that it's completely perfect.

这将如何执行呢？

How is this going to be enforced?

我的意思是，在澳大利亚，他们基本上要求社交媒体平台自行监管。

I mean, in Australia, they have basically demanded that the social media platforms themselves self regulate.

否则，它们将面临巨额罚款。

Otherwise, they're gonna face a huge fine.

我的意思是，你认为这是实施这项禁令的最佳方式吗？

I mean, is that do you think the best way to actually apply this ban?

是的。

Yeah.

我们正在努力做的事情，这完全符合《数字服务法案》（DSA）的理念，正如我们目前看到的对X平台处以1.2亿欧元罚款，以及对TikTok成瘾性设计调查的初步结果和委员会要求其修改这些设计一样，DSA已成为一种执行机制。

What we're trying to do, and this completely aligns with the mindset of the DSA and what we've seen now with the DSA with the 120,000,000 fine on x and now is this preliminary outcomes on the inquiry on TikTok's addictive design and the requirements for the commission to change those design is that the DSA has become an enforcing mechanism.

它不仅仅是一个纯粹的监管框架。

It's not just pure, like, you know, regulation framework.

它已经成为促使平台遵守我们要求的机制。

It has become a mechanism to have platforms comply with our requirements.

我们拥有一个极其庞大的4.5亿消费者市场，但这一市场是以遵守我们的规则为代价的。

And we have an amazingly deep 450,000,000 consumer market, but that comes at the expense of following our rules.

如果你不遵守这些规则，就会面临巨额罚款。

And if you don't follow those rules, big fines apply.

这一点非常重要，因为当你在夜间，比如现在，把孩子留在房间里，让他们拿着手机使用社交媒体时，就像他们独自走在街上一样。

And, this is something very important because, again, when you're leaving your kid at the time, like nighttime, like now, with their phone in their room and through their phone on social media, it's like they're alone in the street.

在第一个街角，他们就能接触到成人内容。

And at the first corner, they can access adult content.

在第二个街角，他们就能接触到暴力内容。

The second corner, they can access violent content.

下一个，他们陷入了成瘾的陷阱，不断刷着有时非常令人悲伤的视频。

The next one, they are falling into an addictive trap, into these infinite rolls of sometimes very saddened videos.

这种事在现实生活中你绝不会允许发生，但当你把手机交给孩子，却对他们在这些平台上经历的一切一无所知时，你就放任它发生了。

This is something that you would never let happen in real life, but you let it happen online when you give them their phone and you don't know what's going on through those platforms.

你觉得欧洲的孩子们会原谅你们这样做吗？

Do you think that Europe's children are going to forgive you for doing this?

我的意思是，代际矛盾已经够多了，不是吗？

I mean, there's already plenty of generational tension, isn't there?

而且，有很多孩子，我们在节目中也听到了他们的声音，他们非常反感被切断与社群的联系。

And there's an awful lot children out there, and we've heard from them in this program, who really hate the idea of being shut off from their communities.

实际上，当你询问孩子们时，我们在法国做了大量调查，我相信全球范围内也有非常相似的调查。

Actually, when you ask children, we we ran a lot of surveys in France, and I'm sure there are pretty much similar surveys all around globally.

十分之七的孩子都希望如此。

Seven children out of 10 are asking for it.

他们说，如果知道朋友们都不在这些平台上，他们宁愿不使用这些平台。

They say that if they could know that their friends are not on those platforms, they would rather not live with it.

如果平台自己不采取行动，这时就需要政府介入，说：这对我们的孩子来说太糟糕了。

And if the platforms are not gonna act by themselves, this is when the states comes in and say, hey, this is too bad for our kids.

我们需要保护我们的孩子。

We need to protect our kids.

我敢肯定，当酒精被禁止未成年人饮用、香烟也被禁止未成年人吸烟时，你们也经历过类似的辩论。

And I'm sure you had very similar debates when alcohol got forbidden to minors or when smoking cigarettes got also got forbidden to minors.

这时就需要政府介入，保护公众利益。

This is when the stakes comes in and and protects the population.

克拉拉·查帕斯，法国数字事务与人工智能大使，就社交媒体可能对儿童实施的禁令发表看法。

Clara Chapas, the French ambassador for digital affairs and AI on the social media ban potential social media ban for children.

来自纽约FHN金融公司的首席经济学家克里斯·洛与我们同在。

Chris Lowe, chief economist at FHN Financial in New York is with us.

克里斯，在政治层面上，欧洲国家如西班牙、希腊、法国等实施社交媒体禁令，这在大西洋对岸恐怕不会受欢迎，是吧？

On a political level, Chris, clearly, a social media ban in Europe, countries like Spain, Greece, France, and so on, it's not gonna go down well on your side of the Atlantic, is it?

大概不会。

Probably not.

我的意思是，这取决于如何实施以及针对谁。

I mean, depending on how it's implemented and who it's for.

但你知道，即使在这里，我们也有年龄限制。

But, you know, even here, we do have age limits.

嗯。

Mhmm.

比如Meta，创建Facebook账户时，你必须年满13岁。

And meta, for example, if, if for a Facebook account, you're supposed to be over 13.

但他们并不严格，执行得也不好。

They're just not very strict, and they're not well enforced.

所以我怀疑，尽管人们可能会对此抱怨

So I suspect that while people might grumble about it

特朗普政府大概会这样，对吧？

The Trump administration probably will, won't it?

是的。

Yes.

但只要不是像中国对一些美国提供商那样实施全面的全年龄段禁令，这种反对声音他们还是能接受的。

But, the the pushback, as long as it's not a general, you know, all ages ban the way China has done with some US providers, I think they'll live with it.

好的。

Okay.

现在我们来看看市场情况。

Let's look on the markets now.

美国股市今天反弹了，对吧？

US stocks have rebounded today, haven't they?

我们昨天还在讨论可能存在的AI泡沫，现在道琼斯指数已经突破了50000点。

We were talking potentially about an AI bubble yesterday, and now the Dow Jones has hit 50,000 points.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为其中很大一部分原因是，我们之前的一些抛售可能是为了税务收割。

And I think a big part of it is, that that we probably some of this selling was tax harvesting.

去年有巨额的资本利得。

That is big capital gains last year.

今年应缴的税款。

Taxes owed this year.

缴税日期临近，人们不得不卖出资产以筹集现金。

The tax date's coming up, and people had to sell to raise cash.

我这么说的原因是，一些受冲击最严重的股票。

The reason I say that is, some of the hardest hit stocks.

例如，亚马逊在今天早些时候一度下跌了10%。

Amazon, for example, was down 10% from yesterday at one point this morning.

这只股票最终收跌，但只跌了5%，意味着当天出现了相当显著的反弹。

That stock did close down, but it closed down 5%, meaning a a pretty significant rally over the course of the day.

最后简单提一下，Stellantis。

And a quick final word, Stellantis.

这家汽车制造商今天表现艰难。

And a tough day for the carmaker.

是的。

Yeah.

而这，你知道的，已经超出了Stellantis的范畴。

And this, you know, is something that goes beyond Stellantis.

这是具有全球性质的。

It's it's global in nature.

这些公司曾大力投资转向电动车，但需求却一直未能跟上。

It's that, it, these companies made huge investments in going electric and the demand just hasn't been there.

好的。

Okay.

非常感谢，克里斯·洛。

Thank you very much, Chris Lowe.

亚太地区，一个本地趋势具有全球影响力的地方。

The Asia Pacific, a region where local trends have global reach.

韩国护肤品随着韩流热潮而兴起。

Korean skincare has taken off with the craze of k pop.

未来的挑战是共同的。

And future challenges are shared.

在审视气候风险时，亚洲是全球受海平面上升影响最严重的地区

Looking at climate risks, Asia was the most exposed region to

海平面上升在全世界最为严重。

sea level rise in the world.

《亚太流行播客》探讨塑造该地区的一个重大故事，提供来自最了解该地区人士的深刻见解。

The Asia Pacific pop podcast explores one big story shaping the region with essential insight from those who know it best.

来自BBC世界服务的亚太地区。

Asia Pacific from the BBC World Service.

立即收听。

Listen now.

在您收听BBC播客的任何平台搜索‘亚太地区’。

Search for Asia Pacific wherever you get your BBC podcasts.

美国正在变化，世界也是如此。

America is changing, and so is the world.

但美国正在发生的事情不仅仅是全球动荡的原因。

But what's happening in America isn't just a cause of global upheaval.

它也是全球各地正在发生的动荡的体现。

It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

我是来自华盛顿特区的阿斯马哈利德。

I'm Asmachalid in Washington DC.

我是来自伦敦的特里斯坦·雷德曼，欢迎收听《全球故事》。

I'm Tristan Redman in London, and this is the Global Story.

每个工作日，我们都会为您带来

Every weekday, we'll bring you

一个关于世界与美国交汇点的故事。

a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.

请在 bbc.com 或您收听播客的任何平台收听。

Listen on bbc.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

来自BBC世界服务的《世界商业报道》。

Pure with World Business Report from the BBC World Service.

长期以来，古巴一直依赖进口石油。

Now Cuba has been long dependent on imported oil.

然而，近来由于委内瑞拉——曾是其最大石油供应国——在美方对加拉加斯施压的背景下中断了对古巴的 shipments，古巴正面临严重的燃油短缺。

It has, though, been facing a critical fuel shortage of late after Venezuelan shipments, once its biggest supplier, were disrupted amidst all of that US pressure on Caracas.

昨天，古巴总统米格尔·迪亚斯-卡内尔表示，他的政府正在努力应对一场因美国阻断石油运抵古巴而加剧的能源危机。

Now yesterday, the Cuban president Miguel Diaz Canel said his government is trying to solve an energy crisis exacerbated by The US blocking of oil shipments to his country.

对此，白宫称目前正在进行外交接触，但认为古巴政府已濒临崩溃。

In response, the White House says diplomacy is now taking place, but that the Cuban government is on its last legs.

让我们听听我们驻当地记者威尔·格兰特带来的现场报道。

Let's hear what's going on from, our correspondent there, Will Grant.

他几周前刚在哈瓦那。

He's, been in Havana just a few weeks ago.

威尔，现在情况有多绝望？

How desperate does it feel right now, Will?

说实话，埃德，情况非常、非常绝望。

It's very, very desperate, to be honest, Ed.

我的意思是，正如你所说，我最近刚去过那里。

I mean, I've been, as you say, there very recently.

我见到了一些人，并和他们交谈过。

I saw and spoke to people.

这确实是人们谈论的唯一话题。

It really is the only topic of conversation with people.

你看到的是，哦。

You were seeing on Oh.

在加油站的前院，人们排着长队，等候着能为自己的汽车加到一点燃料，哪怕这意味着要用外币支付，而这已经将人们分成了有无外币获取渠道的两类。

Petrol station forecourts, people were queuing for hours on end, hoping to get the possibility of some kind of fuel for their cars, even if that meant paying in foreign currency, which sort of already divides people into those who have access to foreign currency and those who don't.

但对人们来说，眼下这幅景象确实非常艰难。

But it is a very, very tough picture for people right now.

让我们听听哈瓦那一些人的声音。

Let's hear from, some of those people, in Havana.

我们录到了几位市民的发言。

We've got a recording of a few of them.

埃米利奥·埃尔南德斯。

Emilio Hernandez.

我是埃米利奥·埃尔南德斯。

I'm Emilio Hernandez.

两个小时。

Two hours.

我已经等了两个小时，油罐车却还没到。

I've spent two hours waiting for the fuel tanker to arrive and no sign of it.

我们不知道它会不会来，而且这还得用美元支付。

We don't know if it's coming, and this is paying in dollars.

弗朗西斯科·佩雷斯。

Francisco Perez.

我的

My

我叫弗朗西斯科·佩雷斯。

name is Francisco Perez.

我已经在这里等了五个小时。

I've been here for five hours.

油罐车还没到，也不知道它会不会来。

No tanker yet and no idea if it's coming.

他们说会来，但谁知道呢？

They say it's coming, but who knows?

不管是古巴比索还是外币，都行。

In Cuban pesos or foreign currency, whatever.

你只能想办法付钱。

You just have to find a way to pay for it.

我们别无选择。

We have no other option.

这里说的是哈瓦那几位司机的想法。

The thoughts there of a couple of Havana motorists.

我的意思是，首先，我猜如果找不到解决方案，这个周末他们可能就会完全没油了。

I mean, well, firstly, I suppose they are gonna be completely out of oil, I guess, potentially, this weekend or something like it if if if a solution isn't found.

我们知道华盛顿方面提出了什么妥协方案吗？

Do we know what Washington is offering as some kind of compromise?

因为看起来，如果古巴真的完全没油了，他们实际上握有全部主动权。

Because it seems like they hold all the chips effectively if Cuba's gonna be out of fuel altogether.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这是非常公正的分析，埃德。

I think that's a very fair analysis, Ed.

我的意思是，如果我们退一步，像你说的那样，不再听街头的声音，而是静下心来想一想：委内瑞拉，作为主要的石油供应国，如今已陷入困境，而据我们所知，华盛顿如今实际上掌控了委内瑞拉的石油产业。

I mean, if we pull back, as you say, from hearing the voices on the street, if we pull back and we think about this for a moment, Venezuela, the main provider of oil, that's been knocked and Washington is essentially in in in control now as far as we understand of the Venezuelan oil industry.

美国国务卿马可·卢比奥明确划出了一条红线：绝不允许委内瑞拉向古巴再运送任何石油。

It is a complete red line from Marco Rubio, secretary of state that Venezuela sends any more oil to to Cuba.

我目前所在的墨西哥也无法填补空缺，因为今年夏天他们将参与关于重新谈判《美墨加协定》（USMCA）的谈判。

Mexico, where I am currently, they can't step up because they are going to be engaged in talks over renegotiated North American free trade agreement, the USMCA, over the summer.

而且，华盛顿已明确表示，他们并不期望墨西哥填补委内瑞拉留下的缺口。

And again, Washington made it abundantly clear that they don't expect Mexico to step up to fill the void of Venezuela.

那么，从古巴的盟友来看，还有谁剩下呢？

Who's left in terms of Cuba's, allies?

俄罗斯显然自身也面临问题，目前正将资源集中用于乌克兰战争。

Russia obviously has its own issues and currently dedicating its resources to the war in Ukraine.

因此，坦率地说，这个岛屿的前景是本世纪以来最黯淡的。

So the the the picture for the island is quite honestly the bleakest it has been this century.

我们听到了迪亚斯-卡内尔总统说他们正在寻找解决方案，但人们不禁怀疑这些方案究竟是什么，以及除了彻底的、全面的改革之外，他们还能向华盛顿提供什么能被政府接受的东西。

We've heard from the president Diaz Canel saying they're trying to find solutions, but one genuinely wonders what those solutions will be and exactly what they can offer to Washington beyond wholesale root and branch reform that would be acceptable to the administration.

是的。

Yeah.

考虑到马尔科·卢比奥的历史及其对古巴的立场，你不禁怀疑，除了政权更迭之外，还有什么能令白宫满意。

And given Marco Rubio's history and his position on Cuba, you wonder what they would would satisfy the White House short of regime change.

正是如此。

Exactly.

我认为这才是问题所在，因为在委内瑞拉，他们已经表明愿意与包含尼古拉斯·马杜罗政府残余势力的临时政府合作。

And I think that is the issue because in Venezuela, they've shown that they're willing to work with an interim government that involves the remnants of Nicolas Maduro's administration.

我不确定在古巴的例子中情况也会如此。

I'm not sure that that will be the case in the Cuban example.

因此，正如马可·卢比奥本人所言，其意图似乎是通过切断石油供应来彻底打压该岛，使人道主义危机达到一定程度，从而引发街头反应，或迫使华盛顿方面进行干预。

And so it seems that the that the intention, as so stated by Marco Rubio himself, really, is to basically squeeze squeeze the island now by cutting off its oil to a point that the humanitarian crisis is such that there is some kind of reaction on the streets or requiring from Washington's perspective some kind of intervention.

但这是一场非常非常危险的游戏，当然，像我们开头听到的那些普通古巴人，正被困在这场风波的中心。

But it's a very, very risky game, and, of course, ordinary Cubans like the one we heard at the beginning are sort of trapped in the middle of all of that.

好了，格兰特，非常感谢您。

Well, Grant, thank you very much indeed.

日本将于周日举行投票，这是在首相高市早苗上任仅数月后突然宣布提前大选的结果。

Japan is heading to the holes the the polls on Sunday, this after the prime minister, Sanae Takayichi, called a snap election just months into her initial term.

在生活成本飙升成为选民最关心的问题之际，拉胡尔·坦登一直在研究日本变化莫测且充满挑战的经济格局。

With rising living costs at forefront to the forefront of voters' minds, Rahul Tandon has been examining Japan's changing and challenging economic landscape.

关键的选举议题是什么？

What is the key election issue?

和世界许多地区一样，是物价上涨。

Like many parts of the world, it's rising prices.

但日本有所不同，因为多年来物价从未上涨过。

But Japan is different because for years, prices never went up.

事实上，它们经常下降，这在经济学中被称为通货紧缩。

In fact, they often went down in what's known in economics as deflation.

过去几周，日本的政治家们一直在全国各地竞选。

For the past few weeks, politicians have been on the campaign trail in Japan.

当他们挨家挨户拜访时，听到了很多关于日本主食——大米价格的问题。

And as they knock on doors, they're hearing lots about the price of Japan's staple food, which, of course, is rice.

让我们听听选民的想法。

Let's get the thoughts of voters.

我

I

我仍然不得不买米，因为我需要它，但价格涨了，生活变得非常艰难。

still end up buying rice because I need it, but the price has gone up and it's become really tough.

我能理解为什么有些人可能再也无法维持生计了。

I can see how some people might not be able to get by anymore.

这不仅仅是影响别人的问题。

It's not something that only affects others.

这也在影响我。

It's hitting me too.

在过去大约一年里，大米价格突然飙升。

Over roughly the past year, rice prices have shot up suddenly.

因此，吃大米变得困难了。

And because of that, it's become something that's harder to eat.

我的意思是，不是完全吃不起，但 definitely 更难大量食用了。

I mean, not impossible, but it's definitely become harder to eat in large amounts.

我觉得我们现在的状况就是如此

I feel like that's the situation we're

现在。

in now.

现在，你们许多听这个的人，我敢肯定，都是在通货膨胀的环境中长大的。

Now many of you who are listening to this, I'm sure, have grown up living with inflation.

那就是价格上涨。

That's rising prices.

当你去商店时，会发现每月的账单在持续上涨。

When you go to the shops, you're finding that your monthly bills are continually increasing.

但对于许多日本人来说——别忘了日本人口正在老龄化——这简直是个陌生的概念，我们想让你感受一下这种状况。

But for many people in Japan, and remember, it has an aging population, it's an alien concept, and we wanted to give you a sense of that.

所以我采访了BBC的奥井真理子，她在日本长大，至今仍有家人和朋友在那里。

So I spoke to the BBC's Mariko Oi, who grew up in Japan and still has family and friends there.

基本上，我从小在东京长大，一生中几乎从未经历过任何东西涨价。

Basically, I grew up in Tokyo, and for practically all my life, I never really experienced anything getting more expensive.

所以价格基本保持不变，甚至在某些时候还下降了。

So prices pretty much stayed the same and at some point they actually went down.

那是因为经济一直非常停滞。

Then that's because the economy has been really, really stagnant.

二战后，经济曾快速增长，但后来达到了一个许多资产被高估的阶段。

It was growing really, really rapidly after the second World War, but then it hit that point when a lot of assets were overvalued.

简单来说，我不打算讲得太复杂，但资产价格，尤其是房价，突然崩盘了。

And, basically, you know, I'm I'm not gonna complicate it too much, but asset prices, especially property prices burst.

因此，它们急剧下跌，导致经济陷入了数十年的停滞。

So they fell so sharply and it pushed the economy into decades of stagnation as a result.

这就是为什么人们根本不习惯东西变得越来越贵。

So that's why people just aren't used to things getting more expensive.

正如玛丽科所描述的那样，这就是消费者面临的状况。

As Mariko outlined there, that is the situation for consumers.

但企业呢？

But what about businesses?

通胀和日元贬值对它们产生了怎样的影响？

How has inflation and the decline in the value of the Japanese currency, the yen, affected them?

不仅仅是大米在涨价。

It's not just rice that's going up.

所有东西都在涨。

Everything is.

所以如果我们不提价，就赚不到钱。

So the impact is that if we don't raise prices, we won't make a profit.

但如果我们涨价，顾客就不会来了。

But if we do, customers won't come.

所以我们不能涨价。

So we can't raise them.

我认为未来的经济形势不会好转，尤其是现在日元疲软的时候。

I don't think economic climate will get any better in the future, especially now with the week in yen.

我们对游客的依赖太深了，所以我非常担心当游客数量减少、只剩下日本本地人时会发生什么。

We've become so dependent on tourists, so I'm really worried about what will happen when the number of tourists decreases and we're left with only Japanese people.

我每天都在想，明天会是什么样子？

Every day I'm thinking, what will tomorrow be like?

会有很多游客吗？

Will there be a lot of tourists?

会有一些游客吗？

Will there be a few?

我每天都为此担忧。

I worry every day.

显然，正如我们刚才听到的，这段时间对 businesses 来说非常艰难。

Clearly, as we heard there, it's been a challenging time for businesses.

因此，无论谁在接下来组成日本政府——我们很快就会知道是谁——都将面临诸多经济挑战。

So whoever forms the next government in Japan, and we'll find out who that is pretty soon, they're gonna have plenty of economic challenges facing them.

拉胡尔·坦东为您带来日本本周末选举的前方报道。

Rahul Tandon ahead of Japan's elections this weekend.

现在，比赛也正式开始了。

Now it's game time as well.

本周末，超级碗即将来临，海鹰队和爱国者队的球迷们将在周日紧盯每一个达阵时刻。

This weekend, the Super Bowl is almost upon us, while fans of the Seahawks and the Patriots are gonna be tuned in for every touchdown on Sunday.

和以往一样，场外的另一个大故事是广告。

There is as ever another story almost as big off the field, the ads.

普林格尔·利奥。

Pringle Leo.

这里是肖德，正在通过凯洛格葡萄干面包为大众提供光纤服务。

Will Shad here, bringing fiber to the masses with Kellogg's raisin bread.

走吧，Scarlet。

Let's go, Scarlet.

人人都喜欢，哪怕是最挑剔的人。

Loved by everyone, even the saltiest.

里兹派对。

Ritz party.

那里有一些经典的超级碗广告。

Some classic Super Bowl commercials there.

今年，这些广告已经凭借明星阵容、前沿创意和惊人的预算引发热议。

And this year, already, they are generating headlines with star studded spots, cutting edge creative, and eye pop tip, eye popping budgets.

广告商希望在超过一亿全球观众面前脱颖而出。

Advertisers are hoping to stand out in front of more than a 100,000,000 global viewers.

玛丽亚·罗达斯是伊利诺伊大学商学院的教授。

Maria Rodas is professor of business administration at the University of Illinois.

她是消费者行为和品牌管理方面的专家。

She's an expert in consumer behavior and brand management.

在三十秒内，人们支付了八百万，有时甚至是一千万。

For thirty seconds, people are paying 8,000,000, sometimes 10,000,000.

这还没有计算他们为制作和邀请众多明星所支付的费用，因为这是一个大趋势。

And this is without factoring in what they pay for production and having all of these celebrities because this is a big trend.

所以我们谈论的是超过两千万。

So we're talking north of 20,000,000.

于是你可能会问，为什么？

And so the question that you ask is why?

我想说的是，超级碗已经成为最后的篝火，因为现在当我们审视这个世界，尤其是媒体时，一切都变得如此碎片化。

And what I would say is that the Super Bowl has become the last campfire because right now when we're looking at the world, but even more specifically media, everything is so, so fragmented.

所以当我打开Instagram或TikTok时，我看到的内容和你看到的完全不同。

So when I go to Instagram or TikTok, what I see is completely different than what you see.

我们每个人都被推送着自己那一小块现实，但超级碗是为数不多仍能让上亿人自愿在同一时刻共享相同现实的时刻之一。

We're being served our own little slice of reality, but the Super Bowl is one of the only remaining moments where over a 100,000,000 people voluntarily choose to share the same reality at the same time.

因此，这种稀缺的共同注意力，已成为营销中最宝贵的资源。

So it is this scarcity of share attention that has become the most valuable commodity in marketing.

今年有哪些公司参与竞争？

So which companies are competing this year?

天哪。

Oh my god.

所有的公司都在参与。

All all of them.

你知道，超级碗的一个有趣之处在于，它反映了经济状况以及资金和活动的流向。

You know, the interesting thing also with the Super Bowl is that's a mirror of how the economy is doing and where the money and the action is.

所以今年最大的玩家有两个主要趋势。

So the biggest players this year, there's two big themes.

人工智能，这恐怕不会让任何人感到意外。

AI, I'm sure to no one's surprise.

因此，Meta、Anthropic，还有一些较小的玩家。

And so meta, Anthropic, we also have smaller players.

这就像一个大的趋势。

And so that is like one big trend.

另一个趋势是健康养生，更具体地说是GLP-1。

And the other one is wellness and more specifically GLP one.

所以是诺和诺德。

And so Novo Nordisk.

此外，还有一些新的小型入局者，比如Rowe。

Also, there is some other smaller new entrants like Rowe.

所以他们是在超级碗上卖药。

So they're they're selling drugs on the Super Bowl

广告位。

slot.

他们

They

是的。

are.

他们在卖药，而且还请了名人代言。

They are selling drugs and also with celebrities.

所以塞雷娜·威廉姆斯将主演这支另类广告。

So Serena Williams is going to be staring the rogue commercial.

因此，这是两大最显著的趋势，通过它们你可以看出市场和经济中什么是热门的。

And so those are the biggest two trends, and that's how you see what's hot in the market and in the economy.

或许解酒疗法会比较合适。

Hangover cures perhaps would be appropriate.

这很有趣。

It's funny.

我看到一项研究指出，相当一部分观众实际上比期待比赛本身更期待这些广告。

I I was seeing one piece of research suggesting that a significant proportion of those watching are actually looking forward to the ads more than they are the game itself.

是的。

Yes.

这也是这一现象中另一个非常奇怪的地方，我也包括在内。

And that is the other very strange thing about this phenomenon, and I'm going to include myself there.

所以我从不看橄榄球比赛。

So I never watch a football game.