#57 行为科学家——罗里·萨瑟兰谈营销、分析师忽略的要点与行为经济学

是的。

Yeah.

现在我有一个数学理论，解释为什么这种情况常常出错，这个理论不是我提出的。

Now I've got a mathematical theory about why this often goes wrong, which is not mine.

它来自我大约两三周前在一次会议上有幸见到的一位人士，斯蒂芬·沃尔夫勒姆。

It comes from somebody I I met I was really privileged to meet about two or three weeks ago at a meeting, which is, Stephen Wolfram.

他几乎提出了一个非常引人深思的观点，那种让你多年难忘的句子。

And almost in, made this fascinating point, which is one of those points which is a sentence which sticks with you for years.

他说，自然进化之所以有效，是因为它的适应性标准相当宽松——本质上，进化的规则就是：只要你能活到足够长的时间来繁衍后代，并且能够不断重复这个过程，你就继续留在游戏中。

And he said, the reason evolution works in nature is it has quite a loose fitness function, which is effectively the rules of evolution are if you can stay alive long enough to reproduce and you can rinse and repeat, then you stay in the game.

就是这样。

That's it.

对吧？

Right?

现在，有成千上万、甚至数百万个生态位，你可以在其中成功或失败地完成这一特定目标。

Now there are thousands and millions of ecological niches in which you can either succeed or fail at that particular endeavour.

是的

Yep.

但就是这样。

But that's it.

无论你是一片苔藓还是一条晒太阳的鲨鱼，规则都完全相同，而且很宽松。

Whether you're a patch of moss or you're a basking shark, the rules are exactly the same and they're loose.

在这些限制之内，你有相当大的自由去解读和发挥。

And you are given considerable scope for interpretation within those constraints.

我刚才和一个人聊过，顺便说一下，这正是像Octopus Energy和Shopify这样的公司运营客户服务部门的方式。

Now I was talking to someone who by the way, this is also how, for example, Octopus Energy and Shopify run their customer service departments.

他们给员工非常明确的目标，通常是关于客户满意度，而不是成本控制，并且允许他们自由运用自己的主动性和想象力来实现这些目标。

They give them very, very clear objectives typically to do with customer satisfaction, not cost control, and they are free to use their own initiative and imagination to achieve those ends.

因此，你会看到这种创造力和发现的爆发，甚至更重要的是，运气。

So you get all that kind of explosion of inventiveness and discovery and and and actually, even more important, luck.

我们在商业中发现的真正有价值的东西，有一半是因为异常、偶然事件或——正如我常说的，青霉素就是如此。纳西姆教给我的一件了不起的事是，大卫·克利夫利写了一本精彩的书，叫《偶然性并非偶然》。

Half the shit we'll discover in a business that's of real value happens because of an anomaly or a chance event or a, you know, I always say, you know, that's true of penicillin, you know, it's true of One of the great things Nassim taught me is that David Cleavely has written a brilliant book called 'Serendipity It Doesn't Happen by Chance'.

纳西姆的观点是，你无法控制运气，这就是为什么金融人士讨厌它。

And Nassim's point is you can increase you can't control luck, which is why finance people hate it, of course.

但你可以付出一定代价，扩大自己接触正面意外收益的机会。

But you can, at some cost, expand your surface area exposure to positive upside optionality.

换句话说，如果你给予客服人员一定的自主权和发挥主动性的自由，那么时不时就会有人发现某种表达方式、语调或互动方式，其效果远超寻常。

In other words, now if you give your customer service staff a degree of autonomy and a degree of freedom to exercise their own initiative, what will happen is every now and then one of them will discover a phrase or a tonality or an interaction which is just disproportionately effective.

如果你强迫呼叫中心员工遵循固定脚本，你将一无所获。

If you force your call centre staff to follow a script, you won't discover a damn thing.

没有任何潜在的正面收益。

There is no potential upside.

好吧，你确实最小化了负面风险，但这又有什么了不起的呢？

Okay, you've minimised the downside whoop deed fucking do right?

但已经没有剩下的正面收益了。

But there's no remaining upside.

如何在商业中平衡利用与探索，这个问题至关重要。

And this question of how you calibrate exploit versus explore in business is really important.

现在看来，如果由首席财务官来负责，风险在于他们希望每一笔支出都必须与已知的增量收入直接挂钩。

Now what seems to happen is if you get a CFO put in charge, the danger is they want every unit of expenditure to be attached to a known unit of incremental revenue.

当你把绩效标准定得太死时，结果只会长出一堆苔藓，却永远等不到一条鲨鱼。

Now when you make your fitness function too tight, you just end up with a lot of moss, but you never get a shark.

换句话说，我认为这种对降低波动性和可预测性的需求，真正重要的概念其实是机会成本。

In other words, so I think this demand for sort of variance reduction and predictability, the real concept, the only concept that matters is the opportunity cost.

因此，成本总是即时且可量化的。

So costs are always immediate and quantifiable.

我认为商业中存在一些领域，比如采购或管理咨询公司所采用的收益共享协议——即我们会从你方识别出的成本节约中抽取一定比例，这本质上是一种不公平的不对称博弈，根本不该被允许。

And I think there are disciplines within business a bit like procurement or the gain share agreements which management consultancies engage in, which is we will you will give us a certain percentage of the cost savings we identify, which are fundamentally asymmetric games which shouldn't be allowed.

因为你这意味着你可以对任何成本降低宣称功劳，却无需对任何机会的丧失承担责任。

Because what you're saying is you can claim credit for any reduction in cost without being held responsible for any destruction of opportunity.

而这根本不是一种平衡的决策方式，因为你想想看。

And that that's not that's not a balanced scorecard means of decision making at all because you go, look.

你明白吗？

You know?

我的意思是，我来给你举个经典的例子。

I mean, I'll give you the classic example of this.

你知道的？

You know?

你在超市使用自助结账。

You self checkout in supermarkets.

是的。

Yep.

我敢肯定，很多部署这项技术的人把减少人力需求的功劳全归于自己，却不用对销售额的流失负责。

I'm sure a load of people who installed that technology have claimed all the credit for the reduced manpower you need, but they haven't been held responsible for the loss in sales.

销售额真的有流失吗？

Is there a loss in sales

通过自助结账？

from self checkout?

我喜欢自助结账。

I like self checkout.

售票窗口排着长长的队。

There's a bloody queue at the ticket window.

太棒了。

Brilliant.

我只需要点五下，刷一下信用卡，就能买到想要的票。

I'll just go and tap five times and tap my credit card, and I'll get the ticket I want.

在此之前，财务人员注意到自动售票机的成本低于人工成本，于是窗口突然就没人值守了。

Until then, the finance people notice that the cost of a ticket machine is lower than the cost of a human being, and suddenly the window's not manned anymore.

所以在你根本不知道该买哪种票的时候，你就完蛋了。

And so on those occasions when you haven't got a clue what ticket to buy You're screwed.

你完全懵了。

You you know, you're completely flummoxed.

所以别误会我的意思。

So the so don't get me wrong.

技术是一个选择。

Technology is an option.

自助结账，我喜欢每一个，但如果你有一个五口之家，还推着一整车商品，你就不会喜欢了。

Self checkout, I like every But you wouldn't like it if had a family of five and you had a whole trolley full of goods.

所以很明显，如果你设置太多自助结账的障碍，我那位虽然很有钱但年过七旬的邻居就不愿意去我们当地的超市了，因为那里的传送带太少了。

So obviously, if you impose too many self checkout barriers my own neighbour who's you know, fairly minted but over 70 refuses to go to our local wait rows because they have too few conveyor belts.

顺便说一句，这既是以人为本的——有些人喜欢，比如我和妻子购物时，我通常自己扫码，而我妻子却坚持要去人工收银台，就像回到1973年一样。

And by the way, it's both human centred, which is some people prefer when I go shopping with my wife, I basically go and self scan and my wife wants to go to the bloody checkout like it's 1973.

结果就是，我一边自己扫码，一边给她讲她该自己扫码，可最后结账时技术出问题了，我看起来完全像个傻瓜。

What then happens is I self scan all the while lecturing her about how she should be self scanning and then we come to pay the technology goes wrong and I look totally stupid.

但我要说的是，这样一来，店里几乎没人了，于是就会产生一系列连锁影响。

But the point I make is that then what happens is there's almost no one in the store, so there are all these knock on effects.

而且，如果你被要求自己扫描所有商品，根本没法做一次大采购，那会把你逼疯的。

But also you can't really do a big family shop if you're expected to actually check the stuff out yourself, it'll drive you insane.

所以人们会停止进行大采购，但这种下降趋势比那些我所说的立竿见影的成本节约更难衡量。

And so what will happen is people stop doing big family shops, But it's much harder to measure that decline than it is to lay claim to the cost savings that are as I said immediate.

而且，如果你在一家大型上市公司工作，每当大家觉得某个决定很蠢时，这个决定背后的原因总是有人想在给投资者的演示文稿里加一条：通过规模效应和技术整合实现后台成本节约。

And also basically if you work for a large PLC, every time a decision is made that everybody there thinks is stupid, the reason for that decision is someone wants to put a bullet point in the investors' presentation which says back office savings through gains to scale and tech consolidation.

你明白我的意思吗？

Do you see what I mean?

有一些像规模效率、后台整合这样的说法，它们就像宗教里的咒语一样。

There are these narrative phrases like scale efficiencies, back office consolidation, which they're like mantras in religion.

我不确定在很多企业中真的存在规模收益。

I'm not sure there are gains to scale in lots of businesses.

从我看来，每个企业规模越大，似乎就会积累越来越多的官僚包袱。

There seem to be because every business that gets larger just seems to accumulate more and more bureaucratic baggage as far as I can see.

是的，而且还有规模不经济的问题。

Yeah, and there's also diseconomies of scale.

完全是规模不经济，但这些说法却让每个人都点头赞同，无论你是27岁的年轻写手还是别的什么人。

Total diseconomies of scale, But yet they're kind of things which just get everybody if you're a 27 year old teenage scribbler or whatever, they're the kind of things that everybody nods along to.

真正让我担心的是，任何符合非常狭隘的商业理论的观点——比如规模效率，或者降价就会增加需求——

One of the things that really worries me is that anything you say that's consonant with a very narrow school of business theory, again, like scale efficiencies, or if you reduce the price, demand will go up.

这些观点都应该通过实证来检验，因为有时候实际情况恰恰相反。

Those things should be tested empirically because sometimes the opposite is true.

是的。

Yeah.

但如果你提出一个符合标准枯燥经济理论的行动方案，通常一方面，当事情出错时你不会被责怪，另一方面，每个人都会很快同意你。

But if you if you suggest a course of action which is consistent with standard boring economic theory, generally, one, you won't get blamed when things go wrong, and two, everybody will basically agree with you very quickly.

没人会。

No one no.

如果我说，我们降低这个东西的价格，需求就会上升，很少有人会说：我们需要验证这一点。

If if I said, let's reduce the price of this thing, so demand will go up, very rarely will someone say, we need to test that.

但如果你说，我们提高价格，因为我认为这会让产品更受欢迎，因为价格在某种程度上是质量的信号，或者因为在人们选择我们的竞争环境或选择架构中，处于中间位置而非极端位置更有意义，比如。

Whereas if you said let's put the price up because I think it'll make the product more popular because price is a quality signal to some extent, or because in the competitive environment or the choice architecture within which people are choosing us, it makes good sense to be in the middle, not at one of the extremes for example.

所以让我们提高价格，使我们如今成为中端定价，而不是说，众所周知，宝洁公司在推出帮宝适一次性纸尿裤之前，先推出了一款定价极高的高端一次性纸尿裤并大力宣传。

So let's put the price up so we're now mid priced rather than I mean famously this is the genius of people like Procter and Gamble before they launched Pampers disposable diapers, they launched a premium range of disposable diapers at a very high price point and advertised it.

他们根本无意长期生产这个品牌的产品。

They had no intention of making anything of that brand in the long term.

它的存在只是为了当帮宝适上市时，能显得更具性价比。

It was there so that when Pampers arrived, they looked good value by comparison.

你是专业投资者吗？

Are you a professional investor?

你每年会看多少份10-K报告和年报？

How many 10 k's and annual reports do you look at in a year?

你有没有想过能拨开噪音，更快速、更有效地处理这些报告？

Ever wished you could cut through the noise and process them faster and more effectively?

我们为大型机构客户在他们的办公室提供法务会计课程。

We run a forensic accounting course for larger institutional clients in their offices.

对于小型投资基金和个人投资者，我们也在伦敦、纽约和通过Zoom进行线下授课。

For smaller investment funds and individuals, we also do them in person in London and New York and over Zoom.

如需更多信息，请发送邮件至 info@behindthebalancesheet.com。

Email us at info@behindthebalancesheet.com for more details.

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Trusted by 75% of the world's top hedge funds, OfferSense is the market intelligence platform that gives institutional investors access to over 500,000,000 premium sources, from company filings and broker research to news, trade journals and more.

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And with its recent acquisition of Tigus, it also includes the world's largest library of expert interview transcripts, over 200,000 calls covering more than 24,000 public and private companies, all in one platform so investment teams can move faster, go deeper, and make high conviction decisions with confidence.

现在，OfferSense 正通过推出其深度研究工具，革新研究流程，这是其AI驱动平台的下一代功能。

Now, OfficeSense is transforming the research process with the launch of its deep research tool, part of the next generation of its AI powered platform.

与其他深度研究工具不同，OfferSense 的版本专为投资研究量身打造。

Unlike other deep research tools, the OfficeSense version is purpose built for investment research.

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It runs multi set iterative analysis using Officeense proprietary content, including those expert transcripts, and in minutes surfaces insights that would take multiple interviews and days of digging to uncover.

这就像为你的团队增加了十名分析师，帮助你加速分析、深化理解并做出更精准的决策。

It's like adding 10 analysts to your team, helping you accelerate analysis, deepen understanding, and make sharper decisions.

前往 alpha-sense.com/btbs 观看实际演示。

See it in action at alpha-sense.com/btbs.

这是严肃投资者不愿缺少的工具。

This is a tool serious investors won't want to work without.

我想和你谈谈定价问题。

I wanted to talk to you about pricing.

我确实这么做了。

I I do that.

我开了一所在线学校。

I've got an online school.

所以如果你想学习如何投资股市。

So if you want to learn how to invest in the stock market.

我们有一个价格很高的产品，这让其他产品显得相对便宜。

And we've got a very high priced product, which makes the other products look relatively cheaper.

因为并没有一个已知的范围

Because there isn't a universe of the know, go

进入我的效用函数。

into my utility function.

而且无论如何，除非我上过你的课，否则我不会知道你的课程的效用函数是什么。

And in any case, I won't know what the utility function of your course is until I've done it anyway.

不，正是如此。

No, exactly.

但人们应该如何思考定价呢？

But how should people think about pricing?

你有什么好的框架吗？

Do you have any sort of good framework?

我相信

I'm sure

你有很多例子。

you've got lots of examples.

我的一个例子是两个例子。

One of my examples is that two examples.

你面临的一个问题是，当某件事既有经济解释又有心理解释时，经济解释总是占上风。

One of the problems you have is that if there's an economic explanation for something and there's a psychological explanation for something, the economic one always takes precedence.

所以我给你举个例子。

So I'll give you an example.

我们以哈罗德百货的促销为例。

Let's take the Harrods sale.

好的。

Okay.

一年一度的活动。

Annual event.

知道吗，商店外面人山人海。

Know, crowds outside the store.

你看，大袋子上写着‘哈罗德百货大促销’。

You know, big bags saying, Harrods sale.

广告上说：哈罗德百货正在促销。

Ads saying, there's a sale at Harrods.

接下来会发生的是，很多人涌来，那两周我们卖出了多得多的商品，因为价格更低了。

Now what will happen is a lot of people went, we sold a lot more in those two weeks because the prices were lower.

故事到此结束。

End of story.

没什么可看的。

Nothing to see here.

继续吧。

Move on.

我的观点是，这些额外销售额中很可能有超过50%是由活动本身的喧嚣氛围带来的。

And my contention is that probably more than 50% of those incremental sales were generated by the razzmatazz around the event.

人们在外排队的社会证明，以及‘现在不买，两周后价格就会上涨’的稀缺性心理。

Social proof of people queuing outside, the scarcity value of if I don't buy this now it'll be more expensive in two weeks' time.

哦，我不同意。

Oh I disagree.

我永远不会买哈罗德的原价商品。

I would never buy full price Harrods.

不不不，但是。

No no no, but

那什么是哈罗德的原价？

okay, what's full price Harrods?

你根本不知道，对吧？

You don't know, right?

现在我的观点是，如果哈罗德百货将价格在两周内降低三分之一并保持秘密，他们的销售额几乎不会有任何明显增长。

Now my contention is if Harrods dropped their prices for two weeks by a third and kept it secret, they would barely notice any increase in sales.

哦，当然。

Oh, sure.

明白吗？

Alright?

是的。

Yeah.

实际上，我有这方面的证据：我想进行世界上最邪恶的实验，就是想知道，如果一包烤薯条多送50%，那么销售额的增长中有多少是由于消费者计算出的单位价格下降，又有多少是因为‘哇，有优惠’这种心理驱动。

Now I've actually got proof of this, which is I wanted to do the most evil experiment in the world, which is I wanted to know if you have 50% extra free on a bag of oven chips, what proportion of the incremental sales generated is due to literally the lower price per unit as calculated by the consumer, and what proportion of it is generated by, wow, there's a deal.

我最好抓住这个机会。

I better take advantage of that.

这有点像我跟你讨论的马莎百货‘三件8英镑’的促销活动。

It's a bit like my argument with you know, there's Marks and Spencer's three for eight pounds things.

哦，对。

Oh, yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

你有没有真的核对过，那三样东西加起来是否超过

Do you ever actually check that the three things come to more than

哦，你问错人了，因为

Oh, you're asking the wrong person because, of

当然，我会检查所有东西。

course check everything.

我什么都检查。

I check everything.

明白。

Yeah.

任何数字。

Any numbers.

你到处走的时候会用电子表格吧？

Have a spreadsheet, don't you, as you go around?

好的。

Okay.

我的观点是，大多数时候我其实并不去核实自己是否真的省钱了，或者去量化节省了多少。

My contention is most of the time, I don't actually check that I'm saving any money or quantify it.

我只是想，哎呀，买两个这种东西感觉有点傻，所以我还是去找第三个吧。

I just go, well, I I feel a bit of a prat buying two of these, so I better go and find a third one.

你懂的？

You know?

所以我就能拿到优惠价。

So I I get the deal.

顺便说一下，我之前提到过一个调皮的实验，我想在某样东西上提供50%的免费赠品，同时把价格也提高50%，以此来衡量其中有多少是纯粹经济因素，有多少是心理因素。

Anyway, I was talking about this mischievous experiment where I wanted to put 50% extra free on something and put the price up by 50% as a way of measuring what part of it was purely economic and what part of it was psychological.

而和我谈话的那个人——出于明显的原因我不能说出他的名字，但稍后你就会明白——说：我知道这个问题的答案。

And the person I was talking to, who I can't name for obvious reasons that'll subsequently become obvious, said, I know the answer to that question.

我说，哇。

I said, wow.

这完全是一个合法的实验，因为我们是一家庞大的跨国公司，每年会偶尔不小心这么做几次。

It's completely a legal experiment because we're an enormous multinational company, and a few times a year, we do it by mistake.

我当然说，你能给我数据吗？

And I obviously said, can you give me the data?

他说，出于明显的原因，不行。

And he said, for obvious reasons, no.

我说，那你至少能给我一点提示吗？

I said, can you give me a clue?

他说，这么说吧，你根本想不到我们赚了多少钱。

He said, put it this way, you wouldn't believe how much money we make.

这很有趣。

It's interesting.

所以我的观点是，很多行为实际上是由启发式思维、直觉以及各种心理上的进化本能驱动的，这些因素本质上超出了经济理论的范畴，尤其是与信任相关的内容，因为在经济学中，信任被直接设为1。

Which so my argument here is that an awful lot of what is going on is driven by heuristics, instinct, all manner of psychological evolved instincts, which are exogenous to economic theory effectively, particularly anything to do with trust because in economics, is just set to one.

我的意思是，加里，我知道你并不太欣赏加里的经济学，但加里确实提出了一个非常不错的观点，那就是几乎所有的经济模型都依赖于一个代表性个体。

I mean, Gary I know I know you're not the biggest fan of Gary's economics, but Gary makes one very good point, which is nearly all economic models rely on a single representative agent.

是的。

Yeah.

这完全是胡说八道。

Which is nonsense.

对。

Yeah.

胡说八道。

Nonsense.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

并不是说，如果对平均值有利，我们就必须假设对每个人都有利。

Not the idea that if you're good for the average, we have to assume it's good for everybody.

加里正确地指出，我们一直未能把收入不平等当作一个问题来审视，因为仅仅创造出几个亿万富翁，就足以让你觉得自己做得不错。

And Gary quite rightly argues that we've failed to actually look at income inequality as a problem because merely the act of creating a couple of billionaires is enough to reassure you that you're doing a good job.

顺便说一下，我一直很好奇，为什么消费品公司不倡导更多的收入再分配。

It always interested me, by the way, why consumer packaged goods companies don't campaign for more income redistribution.

因为如果你是可口可乐、麦当劳或雀巢，你更希望有一个庞大的中产阶级群体购买你的产品，而不是像杰夫·贝佐斯这样的人花在洗发水上的钱比我还要少——当然，从生理需求上来说，他的情况确实不同。

Because if you're Coca Cola or your McDonald's or your Nestle, you'd much rather have a large middle class population all buying your stuff than Jeff Bezos spends less on shampoo than I do, for obviously physical reasons in his case.

当这些人变得超级富有时，并不会给这些大型消费品公司带来相应的收益。

It's not like when these people become super rich there's a corresponding benefit to those large consumer packaged goods companies.

所以我的观点是，始终占据主导地位的是一种经济叙事。

So my argument there is that there is this economic story which always predominates.

以哈罗德百货的出售为例，看到一件标价600英镑的夹克，和看到一件标着‘600英镑，原价900英镑’的夹克，两者之间有着本质的区别。

Now in the case of the Harrods sale, effectively there is a very big difference between seeing a jacket at £600 and seeing a jacket that says 600 was 900

是的，当然。

Yeah, of course.

这是完全不同的事情。

Fundamentally different thing.

因此，允许经济教条——我称之为经济教条——在忽视心理因素的情况下主导商业决策，这种想法是站不住脚的。

And so the idea that you can allow economic, what I call it, dogma to drive business decision making in the absence of considering psychological factors.

顺便说一下，我谈的是企业与消费者的关系，至于企业与员工的关系，人们普遍假设员工仅仅被薪酬和经济激励所驱动，这暂且不论。

Never mind, by the way, I'm talking about the consumer relationship of a business, Never mind the relationship with its own employees, where it's more or less assumed that people are purely motivated by the paycheck and by financial incentives.

有大量的证据。

There is enormous evidence.

顺便说一下，这其实是个非常有趣的投资话题，值得你去探索，因为丹·艾瑞里参与了美国一个投资基金，该基金确定投资标的的主要标准就是员工满意度。

By the way, this is a really interesting investment thing you ought to explore because Dan Ariely is involved in this investment fund in The US where the principal measure by which they determine where to invest is is employee satisfaction.

我读过相关的内容。

I've read about

是的。

it.

他们认为，员工满意度现在已具有相当大的意义，我认为它更像是一块挡风玻璃，而不是后视镜。

And they argue it has quite a lot now the great thing about employee satisfaction, I would argue it's a windscreen, not a rearview mirror.

没错，是的。

Exactly, yeah.

它具有一定的预测价值，他们现在已经积累了大约五年的数据，结果相当可靠。

It has some predictive value, and they've now got, I think, about five years of data, and it's pretty damn robust.

我的意思是，好市多就是一个绝佳的例子。

I mean, Costco would be a fantastic example.

我说过，你实际上处于劣势，因为你几乎肯定会发现，创始人运营的企业，或者在很多情况下家族企业中的员工满意度会更高，当然，这些企业我们通常无法投资。

And I said, you're actually at a disadvantage because you'll almost certainly find that employee satisfaction is higher, much higher, at either founder run or, you know, or or in many cases, family owned businesses, which of course we can't normally invest in.

嗯，实际上有很多家族企业，而且说到底，不就是家族企业吗？

Well, I mean there are quite a lot of family owned businesses And and family frankly, owned businesses in the basically sort of family owned, isn't it?

是的。

Yeah.

瑞信曾经有一个这样的指数，并且表现优异。

Credit Suisse used to have this index and it outperformed.

瑞信显然已经不存在了。

Credit Suisse is obviously not there.

我没注意到瑞银推出了什么后续产品。

I haven't noticed that UBS has produced something to follow-up.

但回到定价问题，当客户来找你，谈到我的产品缺乏足够可比对象时……

But just going back to the pricing, mean, when clients come to you and talk about, so like my issues, I've got a product that doesn't have very many comparables.

对富人来说，它的价值是无限的，因为你每月支付150英镑，一年总共1800英镑，每门课程都是这样。

It's got an infinite value to a rich person because you can spend I charge £1,800 so £150 a month for a year, right, per course.

顺便说一下，每月150英镑和1800英镑。

By the way, the £150 a month and 1,800.

给人们选择付款方式的权利，要么一次性付清，要么分期付，因为现在像Klarna这样的平台，你看到的正是经济理论始终占上风的另一个例子。

Give give people the choice of paying either way because now at Klarna, the argument you see, this is another case of my the economic theory always prevails.

一个经济学家看到Klarna会说，这不过是一个三个月免息贷款。

An economist would look at Klarna and go, it's a three month interest free loan.

胡说八道。

Bullshit.

分三次支付150英镑，和一次性支付450英镑，完全是两种不同的价格。

Three times a 150 is a totally different price to £450.

我研究这些认知偏差。

I study these biases.

我已经研究了十五年了。

I've done it for fifteen years.

我当时在买一个戴森的产品，顺便说一下，那是一家家族企业。

I was buying one of those Dyson, another family owned business, by the way.

我当时在买一台戴森的空气净化器。

I was buying one of those Dyson air purifiers.

它的价格是450英镑。

It was £450.

我看了看，心想这简直疯了。

I looked and said, that's batshit crazy.

然后它显示分三期付款，每期150英镑，我就觉得还可以。

Then it said three payments of £150 I went okay.

所以关键是，对经济学家来说，价格是一个数字；对消费者来说，价格是一种感觉。

So the point is that to economists' prices are a number, to consumers' prices are a feeling.

没错，完全正确。

No absolutely.

而且通过

And by the

对股市投资者来说，这也是一种感觉，老实说。

way to stock market investors it's a feeling as well, let's be honest.

是的，毕竟他们也是人。

Yeah, well they are people.

对，他们是人。

Yeah, are people.

他们是人类。

They are human.

但你如何建议那些有这种问题的人呢？

But how do you advise people that have that sort of problem?

没有直接可比的对象。

Don't have a direct comparable.

如果你30岁，上了我的课，你可能会投资三十五年，你从中获得的钱会是

If you're 30, you do my course, you might be investing for thirty five years, the money that you would make out of

你这是在跑偏了。

that of You're a a running of the way.

你这么表述，你该怎么表述呢？

You frame that How do you frame that?

顺便说一下，这里有一个有趣的观点：几乎所有的投资建议都基于与他人投资建议的比较。

By the way, and there's an interesting one there, which is nearly all investment advice is predicated on comparison with somebody else's investment advice.

我不断对金融顾问群体说，你们真正的价值类似于私人教练。

And I keep saying to the financial advisor community, your real value is rather like a personal trainer.

关键不在于你们做了什么，而在于你们让我去做了。

It's not what you do, it's the fact that you make me do it.

我对身体方面的例子不太擅长，但说实话，你最好还是以不太糟糕的方式去投资和储蓄，但不行。

I'm not very good at the bodily example of this, but actually, to be honest, you're better off investing and saving badly not terribly, but No.

不行。

No.

当然。

Sure.

你最好持续不断地把钱投入这些东西中，并且以非灾难性的方式进行。

You're you're better off consistently putting money into this stuff and doing it non catastrophically.

让我们以次优但持续的方式，而不是沉迷于优化而反而做得更少。

Let's let's let's you know, sub optimally, but consistently, than you are getting obsessed with the optimization of the thing and therefore doing less of it.

是的。

Yeah.

所以这就像一件事，说实话，有好的性生活，也有不好的性生活，但事实上，拥有性生活可能才是关键，你明白我的意思吗？

And so it is one of those things which is, to be honest, you know, there's good sex and there's bad sex, but actually getting some sex is probably see what I mean?

不错的起点。

Good starting point.

这已经占了90%的价值。

That's 90% of the value.

但金融服务行业在营销方面很糟糕。

But the financial services industry is crap at marketing.

由于这些限制，他们不能很好地做营销。

It's not allowed to market very well because you have these restrictions.

我一直认为，比如投资和贷款广告的限制，即年化百分率（APR），低估了借贷成本的影响，也低估了储蓄的价值。

I've always said that, for example, the restrictions of both investment and loan advertising, which is the APR, understate the effect of borrowing cost of borrowing, and understate the value of saving.

我一直以来都认为，应该允许投放这样的广告：'在x年内让你的钱翻倍'，因为这是一个具体的承诺。

And I've always said it should be legal to run an ad that says double your money in x years, because that's a concrete promise.

是的。

Yeah.

明白吗？

Okay?

人们会说：'哦，我懂了。'

And people will go, okay, I get that.

这样就能体现复利的效果。

So that would capture the compounding effect.

但APR让借款看起来比实际更便宜。

But APR makes borrowing look cheaper than it really is.

这很有趣，因为我确实有一张Monzo卡，它会告诉我，如果我不立即还款，每笔消费的利息成本是多少。

It's quite interesting because I've actually got a Monzo card which tells me the interest cost of every purchase I make if I don't pay it off immediately.

我现在已经把它主要当成了记账卡来使用。

I've now set it off set it mostly to act as a charge card.

你看看这个，心里想：操。

And you look at this, you go, shit.

好吧。

Okay.

如果我选择这个分期付款方案，分12期付清，光是这个该死的披萨我就多花了12英镑。

If I pay this offer, you know, over 12 installments, I'm paying £12 extra for this goddamn pizza.

我有数学A级和S级证书。

I've got an A level and an S level in mathematics.

我以前从来没真正意识到这一点。

I was never really consciously aware of that.

我当时就是觉得：是啊，随便吧，诸如此类。

I was kind of going, Yeah, whatever, etc.

所以公平地说，这种必须直接比较的需求限制了你的创意空间，我觉得是这样。

And so in fairness, you know, this this weird thing where the need for direct comparison limits your creative opportunity, I think.

但你觉得这可能是个问题。

But you think probably a problem.

你觉得是这样吗？

You think it does?

我的意思是，特里·史密斯，我不知道你有没有听说过他，富兰德史密斯。

I mean, Terry Smith, I don't know if you've come across him, Fund Smith.

当然，富兰德史密斯。

Fund Smith, of course.

我的意思是，他是个天才。

I mean, he's a genius.

而且他的所有竞争对手都讨厌他，因为他积累了大量的资产。

And everybody, all his competitors hate him, because he's accumulated a huge amount of assets.

他收取的费用其实并不算离谱，但他现在已经搬到了毛里求斯，因此他的收入适用稍低的税率，尽管我们不知道他实际缴纳了多少所得税。

And he charges actually not unreasonable charges, but he's now moved to Mauritius, and so he gets his income in a slightly lower tax rate, although we don't know how much income tax he pays.

他没有和毛里求斯政府达成什么协议吗？

Has he's not he done really deal with the Mauritian government?

现在这可是非常时髦的做法，不是吗？

That's the really fashionable thing to do now, isn't it?

嗯，

Well,

我不该评论这种税务情况，因为他曾在播客中接受过采访，我的朋友威廉·格林告诉他，我母亲非常不喜欢你，因为他觉得你是那种不交税的有钱人之一，他对此非常反感。

I shouldn't comment on this tax situation, because he was interviewed in a podcast, and my friend William Green told him that my mother really doesn't like you because he thinks you're one of these fuck off rich people that are not paying any tax, and he took great exception to it.

所以我不想对此做任何假设，但他的竞争对手讨厌他，是因为他积累了大量资产，而且他的业务极其盈利。

So I don't mean to make any assumption about it, but his competitors hate him because he's accumulated all these assets and because his business is incredibly profitable.

我认为这部分是因为他非常擅长自己的工作，但也是因为他的营销……

And I think it's partly because he's very good at what he does, but it's also because his marketing

是天才。

is genius.

我也怀疑他在性格或境遇上处于一种幸运的位置，根本不在乎别人怎么想。

I also suspect he's in the lucky position, either temperamentally or circumstantially, of not really caring what the other people think.

哦，好吧，

Oh, well,

毫无疑问，声誉上的偏执驱动了大量机构决策。

So reputational paranoia undoubtedly drives an enormous amount of institutional decision making.

我的意思是，丹·戴维斯的书《不可问责机器》非常引人入胜。

I mean, Dan Davies' book, The Unaccountability Machine, is fascinating.

约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯有一句精彩的话，他说：世故智慧教导我们，通常情况下，以传统方式失败，比以非传统方式成功对声誉更有利——有趣的是，凯恩斯写这句话时谈的是投资。

There's the brilliant quote by John Maynard Keynes where he said, Worldly wisdom teaches it is often better for the reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally, which was Keynes writing about investment, funnily enough.

这就是为什么那些从外部闯入领域、或者根本不在乎他人看法的人往往拥有非凡的力量，因为大多数人太过害怕打破现状，生怕因此得不到晚餐邀请之类的机会。

And this is why often someone who comes into the field from, you know, comes in from left field or simply doesn't give a shit has an extraordinary power because most people are so frightened of rocking the boat because they won't get invited to a dinner party or something.

我怀疑他相当厚脸皮，或者

I suspect he's fairly thick skinned or

至少，他确实如此，但我觉得他的智慧体现在那句口号上：买入好公司，别付太高价，然后什么都不做。

at least Well he is, but I think the genius, his slogan is Buy good companies, don't overpay, do nothing.

而且这三点简洁明了。

And it's three bullet points, so simple.

他的做法是

The way it's done

沃伦·巴菲特那种方式。

that Warren Buffett sort of did.

沃伦·巴菲特并不在做广告，对吧？

Warren Buffett's not advertising, right?

不，当然不是。

No, no.

这个作为

That as a

口号简直是绝妙的。

slogan is absolutely ingenious.

我的意思是，有很多实证证据支持这一点。

Mean there's a lot of empirical evidence to support that.

是的，完全正确。

Yeah, no absolutely.

但你认为这种做法为什么不太常见呢？

But why do you think that sort of approach isn't more common?

他可能正是如此，这一点毫无疑问适用于巴菲特和芒格，也适用于杰夫·贝佐斯。本质上，许多非常成功的企业家都有一个不同寻常的决策方式。

What he probably is, because this is true undoubtedly of Buffett and Munger, it's undoubtedly true of Jeff Bezos, Fundamentally, a lot of very successful people in business, what you notice is they have an unusual mode of decision making.

经常，尤其是在杰夫·贝佐斯和芒格的情况下，这种做法受到行为心理学的影响。

Quite often, certainly in the case of Jeff Bezos and in the case of Munger, it's informed by behavioural psychology.

这不是沃伦·巴菲特的一句名言吗：‘如果电话不响，那肯定是我’？

Isn't it a Warren Buffett phrase which is 'if the phone don't ring, you'll know it's me'?

换句话说，一旦我买下了你，我基本上就会让你自己发展。

In other words, once I've bought you, I'll more or less leave you alone.

而这很可能再次体现了那种宽松的适应性标准。

And that's probably again the loose fitness function.

我认为这在哲学上极其重要，尤其是在西方，我们在这方面感到异常困难。

And I think this is so important philosophically, which is particularly in the West, where we find it incredibly difficult.

我的印度教朋友称这种现象为‘单一理论主义’。

My Hindu friend calls this monotheorism.

他说，你们这些该死的西方人的问题在于，你们必须用一个理论来解释一切，或者必须用一个指标来决定一切，比如。

He said the trouble with you bloody Westerners, he says, is you have to have one theory to explain everything, or or you have to have one metric to decide everything, for example.

这类似于一神论，他说，我母亲在印度去一座寺庙。

And it's by analogy with monotheism, which is he said, my mother goes to a temple in India.

在祭坛上，有三位神明。

On the altar, there are three gods.

有一只猴子，一头大象，还有一个耶稣。

There's a monkey, there's an elephant, and there's Jesus.

这些之间并没有什么冲突。

And there's no particular conflict between these.

我们能够应对多种并存，比如多元主义、阴阳平衡，或者其他类似的概念。

We can cope with multitudes where we can cope with pluralism or yin and yang or whatever.

从根本上说，一家优秀的企业必须做好两件事，这可以归结为算法设计和动物觅食中都会出现的问题。

And fundamentally, a great business has to do two things, which comes down to something which occurs in algorithm design, it occurs in animal foraging.

这就是探索与利用的权衡，即你将多少资源用于做你已经知道有效的事情。

It's the explore exploit trade off, which is what proportion of your resources are you deploying to do what you already know works.

这是确定性的、必然的、短期的、即时的。

That's kind of deterministic, it's certain, it's short term, it's immediate.

顺便说一句，这非常重要。

It's very important, by the way.

我最后想说的是，你可以去亚马逊，说别太担心仓库的效率。

Last thing I'm suggesting is that you go to Amazon and say, I wouldn't worry too much about efficiency in the warehouses.

我可不是在建议这一点。

I'm not suggesting that for a second.

但如果你不把一部分资源投入到相反的方向——就像那些忽略摇摆舞、随机飞行的蜜蜂——那么，第一，你会被困在局部最优解中。

But if you don't deploy some of your resources to the opposite, which is the bees that ignore the waggle dance and go off at random, Well, one, you get trapped in local maximum.

你会过度优化过去的经验。

You get over optimized on the past.

是的。

Yeah.

你将无法适应变化。

You're incapable of adaptation.

你将无法成长，也无法获得好运。

You're incapable of growth, and you're incapable of getting lucky.

这可是一长串的负面后果。

Now that's quite a long list of negatives.

而现在，事情变得真正有趣了。

And what it is now this is where it gets really interesting.

奥地利学派在所有事情上都是对的。

The Austrians were right about everything.

你还记得我们之前同意过，那些像哈耶克、米塞斯这样的人，至少他们是在处理事物的复杂性，而不是粗暴地把它们塞进一个方便的模型里吗？

Do you remember we agreed about You that, know, all those sort of Hayek von Mises people who were at least, you know, dealing with the complexity of things rather than crudely, shoehorning them into a convenient model.

他们只有一个成本的定义。

Only have one definition of a cost.

这就是为什么你不可能去教奥地利学派经济学，因为他们基本上不做数学。

This is why you can't get a job teaching Austrian School economics, because they basically don't do maths.

他们不做数学的原因之一是，他们对成本的唯一定义是机会成本。

And one of the reasons they don't do maths is their only definition of cost is opportunity cost.

所以他们说，你没有效用函数。

So they they say you don't have a utility function.

这完全是胡说八道。

That's nonsense.

这种偏好是序数的，而不是基数的。

That preference is ordinal, not cardinal.

你可能会选择买这个而不是那个。

You might choose to buy that rather than that.

但他们认为，说我喜欢这个比喜欢那个多1.1倍，这种想法在实践学意义上纯粹是心理上的胡扯。

But the idea that I prefer that 1.1 times more than I like that, they argue, is just psychological nonsense in praxiological term.

我买这个的唯一成本，就在于它阻止了我买那个。

And the only the the cost of me buying that only exists to the extent that it prevents me from buying that.

是的。

Yep.

现在我们面临的情况是，我认为这几乎存在于所有商业指标和测量中：直接成本是即时且可量化的，而机会成本则是模糊的、常常被推迟的，难以衡量，且需要主观判断。

Now what we have, which I think is a problem in nearly all business metrics and measurement, is that costs are immediate and quantifiable, and opportunity costs are nebulous, often deferred, and hard to and and actually require subjective judgment.

天啊，我们居然还得依靠直觉或本能。

Heaven forfend, you know, that we should use instinct or or intuition.

哦，不行。

Oh, no.

不。

No.

我们，你知道，必须基于纯粹的既有数据来做每一个决策，但关于未来根本没有数据。

We, you know, we must base every decision on pure preexisting data, but there's no data about the future.

你真正需要阅读一下关于这个话题的人是罗杰·L。

The guy you really need to read about this is Roger L.

马丁，我认为他是商业作家中的绝对泰斗。

Martin, who is the absolute doyen, I think, of business writers.

说实话，我只是站在他的肩膀上而已。

I'm just hanging off his shoulders, to be absolutely honest.

但机会成本的问题——在大企业中通过削减成本来赚大钱的同时却摧毁了机会——让我感到非常担忧。

But But the opportunity question, the extent to which you can make a lot of money within a large business reducing costs while destroying opportunities, strikes me as quite alarming.

实际上，关于这一点有一个非常有趣的问题：我之所以对某些工作场所强制返岗的政策感到非常不满，原因和别人完全不同；同样，我支持电动汽车、汽车电气化，理由也和别人完全不一样，那就是选择权。

And actually a very interesting question about this, which is I got very cross about back to the office mandates in certain workplaces for a completely different reason to everybody else, and I also support electric cars, the electrification of cars, for a totally different reason to everybody else, which is optionality.

如果你在2025年买车，那么电动汽车在2025年是否比同等燃油车更好或更差，这绝不是一个无关紧要的问题。

Now whether an electric car is better or worse than a corresponding petrol car in 2025 is not an irrelevant question if you're buying a car in 2025.

但如果你试图支持政府政策，你可以说，内燃机所能产生的创新是有极限的，嗯。

But if you're trying to support government policy, what you can say is that there is a limit to how much innovation will be produced via the internal combustion engine Mhmm.

与电动滑板车、货运自行车等创新的‘寒武纪大爆发’相比，还有一种奇怪的小型雪铁龙车型叫Elo，就像一个带轮子的小房子。

Compared to the the Cambrian explosion of innovation, electric scooters, cargo bikes, there's a weird little Citroen thing called the Elo, which is like a little house on wheels being produced.

希思罗机场的单轨列车。

The Heathrow pod.

所有在地面交通领域发生的有趣事物——说起来，无人机也是如此——都是电气化的产物。

All the interesting shit that's happening in transportation, ground level transportation, and actually drones, come to think of it, is a product of electrification.

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

同样地，2025年让员工远程工作，从财务报表来看，其生产率可能比传统方式低5%左右。

Now in the same way, it's perfectly possible that having your staff work remotely in 2025, as far as your balance sheet goes, is a bit less productive than 5%.

实际上，所有证据都表明情况恰恰相反，但我们先搁置这一点。

Actually, all the evidence suggests the opposite, but let's park that.

顺便说一下，在员工保留方面也有巨大的收益，这可能是最有价值的，因为说实话，老话说只有三分之一的员工真正有用，因为三分之一刚入职还不知道该做什么，另外三分之一正打算离职，所以根本不在乎。

By the way, there's also a huge gain in terms of staff retention, which might be the most valuable thing of all because, to be honest, the old joke is only a third of staff are any use because a third of them have just joined and they don't know what they're doing and a third of them are planning to leave so they don't really care.

所以中间那些留下来的人，才是真正承担繁重工作的人。

So the people in the middle who are sticking around are the people who really do the heavy lifting stuff.

但我的观点是，如果你从短期主义的角度来看——这正是我的看法——如果公务员在家工作时效率降低3%，那就直接说：‘好吧，这样吧。',

But my point is that if you look at it from a short termist point of view, which is my view would be if civil servants are 3% less productive when working from home, just go, 'Right, here's the deal.

如果你在家工作，每天多干一小时。

If you work from home, you work an extra hour a day.

现在闭嘴吧，因为几乎每个人都会接受这个条件。

Now shut the fuck up, because nearly everybody will take that deal.' anyway, ignore that.

我的论点是，等等，远程和灵活办公为整个商业世界提供了机会，去创造全新的商业模式，探索全新的人才库，以及探索全新的薪酬和互动方式，而这些是所有人都回到办公室时无法实现的。

My argument is, hold on, remote and flexible working provides the world of business in aggregate with the opportunity to invent completely new business models and to explore completely new talent pools and to explore completely new means of remuneration and interaction in a way that everybody goes back to the office doesn't allow for.

你知道，举个简单的例子，纯粹因为视频会议带来的后果是：地球上几乎每个人都会为一千美元腾出一小时的时间。

You know, I could be you know, one one of the examples I'll give, a very simple example, which is a consequence purely of video conferencing, is nearly everybody on the planet will give you an hour of their time for a thousand bucks.

这种价值的意义在于，不是每个人都会，但比如说，我想问你，你愿意吗？

Now the value of that, not everybody, but, you know, let's let's say I want to you know, would you do it?

假设这是

Let's say That's

这就是我的报价。

my that's my rate.

这是你的报价。

That's your rate.

关于专家

On the expert

有意思。

Interesting.

好的。

Okay.

在一个我们必须面对面会面的世界里，你不会这么做，因为你知道，不行。

Now in a world in which we have to meet face to face, you're not gonna do that because, you know, no.

解决一下。

Sort that.

我那周在度假。

I'm on holiday that week.

明白吗？

Okay?

我确实这么做过，人们会付我一点钱，和我聊上一个小时，而我当时正在度假，于是我想，嗯，这差不多能付得起几晚的酒店费用。

Now I've actually done this where people pay me a small amount of money to talk to them for, you know, for an hour, and I'm actually on holiday and I go, well, it sort of, you know, pays for the hotel for a few nights.

卖掉了这个。

Sold this.

我会从海滩回来，穿上一件衬衫，然后进行对话。

I'll come in from the beach to have the decency of putting a shirt on, do the conversation.

谢谢你的分享。

Thanks for that.

再回来一下。

Pop back.

是的，正是如此。

Yeah, exactly.

谢谢。

Thank you.

你不会想要那个画面的。

You wouldn't want that image.

那会永远烙印在你的视网膜上。

That would be seared on your retina for life.

所以我会给你一个来自进化的例子。

But so I'll I'll give you an example from evolution.

你有两种可能的路径可以选择。

There were two possible routes you can get.

这就是我大力支持电动汽车的原因。

This is why I support electric cars very largely.

顺便说一下，它还可以使用任何类型的燃料，而汽油车只能使用精炼的原油。

Oh, by the way, also, can run on any kind of fuel, whereas a petrol car can only run on refined crude oil.

是的。

Yep.

不完全对，但是

Not quite true, but,

你知道的，是的。

you know Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

对吧？

Right?

所以，可选择性，这是纳西姆·塔勒布教我的，顺便说一句，这让我妻子很头疼。

So optionality, which Nassim Taleb taught me, this, by the way, bemoys my wife.

不过，公平地说，我妻子很大程度上认同我的塔勒布哲学，也就是：我们是做这个还是那个？

Well, actually, in in fairness, my wife is largely bought into my TALIB philosophy, which is, shall we do this or this?

我们当中总会有一个人对另一个人说：表面上看两者差不多，但选项B给我们更多可选择性。

And one of us will always say to the other, well, they're about equal on the face of it, but option b gives us more optionality.

换句话说，你知道，换句话说，我会选择走通往机场的那条小路，因为虽然慢一点，但如果出了状况，我还能找到别的路去机场。

In other words, you know, in other words, I'll take the back road to the airport because although it's slower, if something goes wrong I can find another way of getting to the airport.

如果M25堵死了，我就完蛋了。

If the M25 gets gridlocked, I'm dead.

所以我们经常会把这一点应用到具体选择哪家咖啡馆上。

So we'll quite often frame that into literally which cafe we go to.

顺便说一下，咖啡馆比餐厅更有选择余地，因为在咖啡馆，你可以坐下点杯咖啡，然后决定是否要吃东西。

A cafe, by the way, offers you more optionality than a restaurant because in a cafe you sit down, order a coffee, and then you choose whether you want to eat or not.

在餐厅里，一旦你坐到桌旁，基本上就只能认命了。

In a restaurant, once you've seated down at the table, you're basically committed.

这在你们家里很复杂吗？

Is it very complicated

因为每件事都带有行为层面的考量？

in your household because everything has a behavioural dimension?

每件事都是。

Everything.

是的。

Yes.

我会说这钱花得值，因为你的决策能力——撇开其他一切不说——培养一些特立独行的品味是值得的。

I would argue it's worth the price because your decision making, apart from anything else, leaving aside everything else, it pays to cultivate eccentric tastes.

因为如果你的品味是被别人强加的主流品味，那就有点像八月份去度假。

Because if you have mainstream tastes which are imposed on you by other people, it's a bit like going on holiday in August.

我从来不明白，没有孩子的人为什么非要在八月份去度假。

I never understand why people without kids go on holiday in August.

你知道的，所有东西都更贵，所有地方都更拥挤等等。

Know, everything's more expensive, everything's more crowded etc.

而且天气还很好。

And you get nice weather

在伦敦。

in London.

恰恰就是你最想待在英国的时候。

And the exact time when you want to be in The UK precisely.

所以是的，有时候确实会有点奇怪，但我猜，如果你和一个外汇交易员住在一起，那也一样奇怪。

So yeah, it does it does get a bit strange sometimes, but I imagine it's equally strange if you live with a currency trader.

顺便说一下，我很喜欢加里经济学里的这个故事。

I love the story in Gary's economics, by the way.

这太棒了。

This is fantastic.

所以，他们交易台上有一位意大利同事，每天早上都会去买一杯单份浓缩咖啡，只要80便士。

So they have an Italian colleague on the trading desk who would go along and I think early in the morning, he'd buy a single espresso for 80 p.

嗯。

K.

对。

Right.

然后三个小时后，他又去买另一杯单份浓缩咖啡，还是80便士，而你花1.30英镑就能买到双份浓缩咖啡。

And then three hours later, he'd go and buy another single espresso for 80 p, whereas you can have a double espresso for £1.30.

有趣的是，这简直让交易台上的其他人快疯了，因为他显然没有进行套利，对吧？

Now what's fascinating, okay, is this drove the other people on the trading desk practically insane because he was failing to I suppose it's a form of arbitrage, is it?

没错。

It is.

是的

Yeah.

绝对

Absolutely.

是的

Yeah.

好的

Okay.

所以，他没有利用套利机会去拿桌上的钱，他说是的。

So failing to take advantage of money on the table through arbitrage by bugged and he said, yes.

但三小时后，第二杯浓缩咖啡的味道会很差。

But the the second half of the espresso will be shit three hours later.

我觉得，但你多付了钱。

I think, but but you're paying an extra.

这些人都非常富有，但这件事让他们抓狂。

Now these people were all highly rich, but it drove them nuts.

不过意大利对咖啡有一些奇怪的规定，对吧？

There's some weird Italian rule about coffee though, isn't it?

你不被允许点双份浓缩咖啡。

You're not allowed to have a double espresso.

如果你在意大利点单，可能会被关进监狱。

Think you go to jail in Italy if you order

还有，如果你在上午11点之后喝卡布奇诺，也不行。

And also if you have a cappuccino after sort of 11AM.

是的。

Yeah.

顺便说一句，别让意大利人告诉你这是因为他们很讲究。

You're By the way, part of that, don't allow the Italians to tell you that's because they're sophisticated.

这是因为很多意大利人乳糖不耐受。

It's because a large number of them are lactose intolerant.

真的吗？

Oh, really?

是的。

Yeah.

所以不知为什么，早上的时候，我不知道，也许你还在厕所附近什么的。

So for some reason, thing in the morning, I don't know, maybe you're still within range of a toilet or something.

我也不清楚。

I have no idea.

但显然，很大一部分原因是，你知道，另一个问题是，几乎所有的意大利人都会在咖啡里加很多糖。

But apparently a large part of this, you know, the other thing is that nearly all Italians put a ton of sugar in the thing.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我们以为他们喝这种极其酸涩的饮料是为了显得很高级。

So we think they're there being really sophisticated having this unbelievably sour drink.

实际上，他们已经溶解了大约三块方糖。

They've actually dissolved about three sugar lumps.

我喜欢在我的咖啡里加一点糖。

I like a bit of sugar in my expression.

不。

No.

不。

No.

不。

No.

电动车，那你还保有野马吗？

The electric cars, so do you still have the Mustang?

没有。

No.

我现在有一辆莲花Electre，非常棒。

I've now got a Lotus Electre, which is fantastic.

我想要

And what I

最终实现的是杠铃策略。

want to ultimately do is to have the barbell strategy.

我妻子有一辆迷你库珀电动车。

My wife has a Mini Cooper Electric.

我想买一辆MicroLino，我妻子对这种微型电动泡泡车有点着迷。

I want to buy, my wife's going slightly crazy about this, a MicroLino, one of those tiny little electric bubble cars.

是的。

Yeah.

因为这样你就真正覆盖了所有需求。

Because then you've got literally, you've got all the bases covered.

Lettre作为高速公路用车有点太大了。

The Lettre as a as a motorway car, as a large it's it's a bit too big.

我的意思是，这在英国会是个问题，因为我们有一个全球化的汽车市场，而我们的道路异常狭窄。

I mean, that is a problem we're gonna have in The UK because, of course, we have a globalized car market, and we're a country with unusually narrow roads.

是的。

Yeah.

幸运的是，我在伦敦发现，你在灵活性上失去的，可以从气势上补回来。

Fortunately, I've discovered in London, what you lose in manoeuvrability, you make up for in intimidation.

所以我认为这就是为什么人们会选择揽胜。

So I think that's why people have Range Rovers.

并不是因为它们在伦敦开起来容易，而是因为所有人都会给你让路。

It's not that they're easy to drive around London, it's just that everybody gets the hell out of your way.

顺便说一下，莲花电动版的野马表现非常出色。

But the Lotus Electric the Mustang was superb, by the way.

我觉得它简直完美。

I thought it was absolutely excellent.

我对此有一个批评意见。

I've got one criticism of it.

这其实是对当今汽车乃至现代文化的一种普遍批评。

It's kind of a generic criticism of cars today, and indeed of modern culture.

我们拐角处有个开白色电动野马的人。

There's a guy with a white electric Mustang around the corner of us.

在过去，即使是较新型的野马，也一眼就能认出是野马。

And in the old days, even later model Mustangs were identifiably a Mustang.

而这款电动野马看起来跟其他车没什么区别。

And the electric Mustang looks like anything else.

那为什么呢

And why is

我的意思是，汽车的一些品牌特征，比如尾灯。

it mean, cars It's some of the brand codes, rear lights.

我想，尾灯就是其中之一。

The rear lights, I suppose.

但为什么会出现这种设计缺乏独特性的情况呢？

But why is there this lack of design singularity?

这不只是汽车的问题，而是所有东西都这样。

And it's not cars, everything.

建筑、标志都是如此。

Buildings, logos.

所以我才买了这辆电动车，因为我觉得它其实是一种特立独行的艺术品。

That's why I bought the Electre because I thought it was actually a kind of eccentric work of art.

我的观点是，电气化最终会让汽车变得非常可靠。

And my argument is that electrification ultimately will make cars actually very reliable.

这本质上就是软件。

It's effectively software.

是的。

Yeah.

因此，我们过去所有想购买阿尔法·罗密欧的冲动，曾因对零部件供应或可靠性问题的担忧而被压抑，而电气化或许会让我们有资格变得更加特立独行。

Therefore, all of those urges we all had to buy an Alfa Romeo, which were sort of suppressed by the fear of parts availability or unreliability, it might electrification should give us permission to be much more eccentric.

这就是我所说的寒武纪大爆发。

This is what I mean by Cambrian explosion.

对，绝对如此。

Yeah, no, absolutely.

所以，举个进化方面的例子，苍蝇这类昆虫有凸面眼睛，你能看到那些微小的细胞结构用于感光。

So just to give an example in evolutionary terms, a fly insects have convex eyes, and you see you have these little cellular things that detect light.

但问题是，考虑到苍蝇的体型，凸面眼睛其实表现得并不差。

Now, the problem with a convex eye is given the size of a fly, it doesn't do a bad job.

不可能，或者说几乎不可能，从凸眼进化出晶状体。

There is no way well, not quite, but it's extremely difficult to evolve from a convex eye to a lens.

如果你是一只拥有凹眼的蜥蜴，你所做的和苍蝇完全一样，只是方向相反，不是外凸而是内陷。

If you're a lizard with a concave eye, what happens is you do exactly the same thing as the fly, only innie, not an outie.

然后，你可能会进化出一层覆盖物，用来保护眼睛免受灰尘侵害。

And then what happens is you evolve a covering, maybe to protect the eye from dirt.

接着，这层覆盖物变成了一个小孔，于是你就拥有了一个针孔相机，从而获得了真正的清晰度。

Then the covering turns into a pinhole, which means you've now got a pinhole camera, so you've got real resolution.

你知道，你拥有了高清的世界。

You know, you've got the world in HD.

然后你进化出一层透明的覆盖物来遮住小孔，这层透明物逐渐变大，于是你就得到了一个晶状体。

Then you evolve a transparent covering to cover the hole, then the transparent covering gets bigger, and you've you've got yourself a lens.

是的。

Yeah.

现在我的观点是，内燃机出于各种原因，并不能为我们提供实现‘晶状体’所需的工具。

Now my argument is that the internal combustion engine, for all kinds of reasons, does not provide us with the tools for getting to a lens, as it were.

这是一种进化上的死胡同，而实际上，交通的电气化就像是——寒武纪大爆发在进化中可能是由某种视力的演化所促成的。

It's an evolutionary kind of cul de sac, whereas actually the electrification of transport is you know, actually the Cambrian explosion was probably in evolution was probably made possible by the evolution of some sort of eyesight.

事实上，这很可能就是促成因素。

That probably is what led, in fact.

他们也不是很确定。

They're not quite sure.

我的意思是，我可能会得到

Mean, I'll probably get a

很多进化生物学家的批评，你知道，我怀疑听这个节目的人中没几个会同意。

lot of evolutionary biologists, you know I doubt many listening No, to this no.

但不，这很有趣，我同意你的观点，因为电动汽车的架构让你能够进行更个性化的设计。

But no, it's interesting and I agree with you because just the architecture of an electric car allows you to have a much more individual design.

我的意思是，谁能想到呢

Mean, who would have thought

你已经用电动车了吗？

Have you gone electric?

我

I'm

不，不是的。

just No.

我受不了那样。

I couldn't bear that.

我受不了那样。

I couldn't bear that.

所以我一辆车都不开。

So I do no miles at all.

我住在伦敦市中心，哪儿也不去。

I live in Central London, so I don't go anywhere.

那你就买辆小的吧，比如Micro Lino。

Well, get a tiny let go and buy a Micro Lino.

不。

No.